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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    Byronic said:

    Roger said:

    Byronic said:

    Roger said:

    Completely OT. Just returned from the Biennale in Venice and it was on the whole pathetic. As you might expect most of the offerings concerned climate change and the environment. All well meaning and probably underfunded but if someone doesn't get hold of this movement while it's hot and give it direction it'll die a death. If ever there has been a need for marketing people to get involved and save something worthwhile before it disappears into tediousness now is the time.

    Are you saying modern art, the Biennale, Venice, the climate emergency campaign, or your personal lifestyle is "pathetic"? Or all of them? It isn't clear.
    All the participating countries have a pavilion. The UK 'show' was chosen by the arts council. It was well attended but almost content free. The choices were up to the participating countries. Most were pitifully uninvolving. The Venezualan one was more interesting than the one from the UK. A waste of a large and enthusiastic audience
    Yes, agreed. See my post below. The problem with the Biennale is the involvement of politicians and quangos like the Arts Council, it guarantees sterile, state-approved art.

    If you want fun and anarchy in your art, try the fairs, like Frieze London. They are brilliant.
    Apples and Chalk.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    IMPORTANT QUESTION

    Do we know if there will be TV debates?

    They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.

    But, will there be debates?

    On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?

    If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
    Given the Lib Dems are a very minor party it is hard to envisage them getting any invite to a debate,
    You must be very nervous of them to be so obsessed!
    Oh god we're back to the SNP are running scared of Jim Murphy shite again.

    The SNP only make gains against the Conservatives on the back of a Lib Dem surge in Scotland.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    Tories should "offer" some ultra Labour, ultra leave seats to Farage and co where they'll probably never win in a million years.

    Easington, Washington, Middlesbrough, Barnsley East, Barnsley Central, Hull north etc..

    Doncaster North is a good example. UKIP were second in 2015. Majority greater than 14k. Would require a swing of 16.6% for the Tories to win. Eighth highest Leave vote in the country, estimated at 71.7%.

    It's in no sense a target for the Tories. They won't be making a big effort there.

    Little chance of an informal pact, rather than a coincidental one though.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,795
    Malcolm we know that Super Jo will increase her majority in Dunbartonshire E and LDs will gain Fife NE.

    How many more seats do you think Super Jo will gain off SNP?

    😊
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Farage's problem if his party doesn't stand in vast swathes of the country is that he'll struggle to make a case for broadcast parity, for involvement in leadership debates and so on.

    Is it worth sacrificing meaningful access to the air war in exchange for the Tories soft pedaling in a couple of places? I'm not sure it is myself.

    However, he would look a bit of a dick if he knocks 10 per cent off the Tory vote, handing victory to Lab/Lib challengers in tight seats and single-handedly kills off Brexit.

    An aggressive BXP campaign would be the ultimate indicator that Farage is more bothered about getting his gurning visage on the box moaning than delivering Brexit.
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Byronic said:

    lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?

    No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.

    Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.

    I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous. Heard the following exchange -

    "Fucking Boris eh?"

    "Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."

    Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
    We had some damp work done recently. The guy was probably early fifties, very Cornish working class.

    "That Boris, he's stirred things up alright", he said chuckling approvingly to himself.

    (How many anecdotes do we need before we get a meaningful sample?)
    I was in the vet’s waiting room yesterday and there were these two people talking. But they didn’t mention Boris at all.
    Pulpstar said:

    Tories should "offer" some ultra Labour, ultra leave seats to Farage and co where they'll probably never win in a million years.

    Easington, Washington, Middlesbrough, Barnsley East, Barnsley Central, Hull north etc..

    This seems a dangerous ploy - could bite them in the bum
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698

    This won’t be the end.

    It’s very possible we get both a second EU referendum and a second independence referendum next year.

    Yup. Kill me now.

    Seconded.

    I know its partly my fault, but it'll be hell.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    kinabalu said:

    Byronic said:

    lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?

    No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.

    Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.

    I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous.

    Heard the following exchange -

    "Fucking Boris eh?"

    "Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."

    Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
    I think this forum has a bit of a collective blindspot as social grades A and B are massively over-represented. Conversely, I can't imagine there are many C2s or Ds who post on here.

    This is why I believe many people are overestimating the LDs. The LDs will do very well with As and Bs but I think they will struggle with C2DEs
    I think this board has always systematically over-estimated the LibDems in all GEs.

    In 2015, and 2017, I had exactly the same discussion about the LibDems in Cambridge that I did this morning. They won't take Cambridge in 2019, just as they didn't in 2015 and 2017.

    My guess is that they will lose most (if not all) of the switchers & they will lose their by-election gain of Brecon & Radnorshire.

    They will take hardly any Labour seats, but some Tory seats look a gimme. My guess is they will end up in the range 25-30. An improvement, but not the sweeping arcs of orange that some posters gaily talk about.

    rcs100 was a very accurate predictor of the LibDems last time. I'd trust his estimate. He's pretty bearish on their prospects again is my recollection.
    Most of the people I know vote Lib Dem, both family and otherwise.
    Get out more!

    I am unsure how many of my Labour voting friends around the country are going to vote this time. The vibe I get from some is they won't bother at all.
    I do get out but I don't usually ask those people which party they intend to vote for.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223

    TOPPING said:

    .

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory HQ giving Amber Rudd the HY treatment and telling her where she can go....

    I regret that. I liked Amber
    Her offence was worse than the 21.

    She wanted to damage the party and tried to blackmail and threaten the PM

    From a purely disciplinary perspective it’s right to make an example of her
    Evidently not because he offered her a position.

    Not that Boris is not a details man, obvs, but she said he offered her the change to stand.

    Amber is a big loss to the Conservatives. As are the others tbf.
    Amber is no loss. She had plenty of time to have sorted out Windrush with generous gestures before it went toxic.
    She was not given the full picture on Windrush.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,713

    Pulpstar said:

    Tories should "offer" some ultra Labour, ultra leave seats to Farage and co where they'll probably never win in a million years.

    Easington, Washington, Middlesbrough, Barnsley East, Barnsley Central, Hull north etc..

    Doncaster North is a good example. UKIP were second in 2015. Majority greater than 14k. Would require a swing of 16.6% for the Tories to win. Eighth highest Leave vote in the country, estimated at 71.7%.

    It's in no sense a target for the Tories. They won't be making a big effort there.

    Little chance of an informal pact, rather than a coincidental one though.
    Farage is supposedly thinking of standing in Thurrock. Cant imagine the Tories would stand aside quietly there
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    edited October 2019
    isam said:
    Anything by Jonathan Glazer is worth watching though only the Guardian could claim 'Under the Skin' is the fourth best film of all time! I'd rate his Guinness commercial on a par with it.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Barnesian said:

    RobD said:

    Byronic said:

    IMPORTANT QUESTION

    Do we know if there will be TV debates?

    They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.

    But, will there be debates?

    There should be. Let's hope there are.
    Issue is format. You know that SKY and Channel 4 will just want a format that stands most chance of damaging Boris. Which means having about 11 party leaders, all vying to take most lumps out of him. Farage? Sure. DUP? The more the merrier. Greta? Be our guest.....

    The potential PMs please. Boris v. Corbyn. That would be worth a watch. The rest? Nah....
    I'd say Swinson has a better chance of becoming PM than Corbyn.
    She's second favourite behind Corbyn to be next PM.

    She is shrewd and tough and PM material.
    She'd make a nice pair of shoes
  • Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    IMPORTANT QUESTION

    Do we know if there will be TV debates?

    They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.

    But, will there be debates?

    On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?

    If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
    Given the Lib Dems are a very minor party it is hard to envisage them getting any invite to a debate,
    You must be very nervous of them to be so obsessed!
    Oh god we're back to the SNP are running scared of Jim Murphy shite again.

    The SNP only make gains against the Conservatives on the back of a Lib Dem surge in Scotland.
    It isn't meant to be analysis. I don't have that much knowledge of the Scottish political scene, other than the rather sad fact that the dominant party has the unpleasant word "nationalist" in it! It was merely an observation that Malcolm seems to get very stirred up (in his usually inarticulate way) whenever the LDs are mentioned 🤣🤣
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,882
    isam said:

    Brom said:

    malcolmg said:

    Brom said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    IMPORTANT QUESTION

    Do we know if there will be TV debates?

    They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.

    But, will there be debates?

    On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?

    If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
    Yeah Swinson is 2nd tier so it would be with Blackford/Sturgeon and then presumably Green, BXP and Plaid would fancy a bit too/
    Sturgeon is not at Westminster you stupid turnip. Only other major player is Blackford who leads the 3rd largest party ( with 3 x what LD's have).
    I'm well aware of that but Blackford is so awful they might want to substitute her in.
    Sturgeon was in the last debates wasn't she? Despite not being a candidate
    Yes I thought I didnt imagine that, it was in 2015. Obviously they did very well, reverted to Blackford in 2017 and struggled. Seems obvious to me who they should use...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,911
    F1: sounds like a cost cap for 2021 will come in but teams can spend what they like in 2020.

    This should be advantage Verstappen. Red Bull have lagged a bit compared to rivals Mercedes and Ferrari, so they'll perhaps be keener to shift as many resources as possible to development of the 2021 car before the cost cap comes into place.

    A team with a decisive advantage under a core rule set can have fantastic consecutive triumphs, as Vettel in the past and Hamilton now prove.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,502
    algarkirk said:

    Farage's problem if his party doesn't stand in vast swathes of the country is that he'll struggle to make a case for broadcast parity, for involvement in leadership debates and so on.

    Is it worth sacrificing meaningful access to the air war in exchange for the Tories soft pedaling in a couple of places? I'm not sure it is myself.

    More immediately to the point for the Brexit party is that the only way in which we are not going in the end to remain is if the Conservatives win a working majority. The most likely figure for Brexit party seats is zero, even if they stand in 650 of them. If the Brexit party stand and lose a few seats for the Tories they are highly likely to be the major reason why we remain in the EU.

    For Leavers this election looks very like a last chance. For the Brexit party to stand in selected Labour leave seats that the Tories cannot win is the only sane policy.

    No reason to think sanity will prevail of course. Remainers would and will be crazy to put up two Remain candidates - Lab and LD - where doing so can let in the Tory. But they will.

    Conversely, it's difficult to see us leaving with No Deal now, unless through the efforts of Remainers, or at least Softer Brexiteers.

    Farage may find it a bit difficult to explain what the point of the Brexit Party is now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    edited October 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    Tories should "offer" some ultra Labour, ultra leave seats to Farage and co where they'll probably never win in a million years.

    Easington, Washington, Middlesbrough, Barnsley East, Barnsley Central, Hull north etc..

    Doncaster North is a good example. UKIP were second in 2015. Majority greater than 14k. Would require a swing of 16.6% for the Tories to win. Eighth highest Leave vote in the country, estimated at 71.7%.

    It's in no sense a target for the Tories. They won't be making a big effort there.

    Little chance of an informal pact, rather than a coincidental one though.
    Yes that's what I'm getting at.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Chris said:

    algarkirk said:

    Farage's problem if his party doesn't stand in vast swathes of the country is that he'll struggle to make a case for broadcast parity, for involvement in leadership debates and so on.

    Is it worth sacrificing meaningful access to the air war in exchange for the Tories soft pedaling in a couple of places? I'm not sure it is myself.

    More immediately to the point for the Brexit party is that the only way in which we are not going in the end to remain is if the Conservatives win a working majority. The most likely figure for Brexit party seats is zero, even if they stand in 650 of them. If the Brexit party stand and lose a few seats for the Tories they are highly likely to be the major reason why we remain in the EU.

    For Leavers this election looks very like a last chance. For the Brexit party to stand in selected Labour leave seats that the Tories cannot win is the only sane policy.

    No reason to think sanity will prevail of course. Remainers would and will be crazy to put up two Remain candidates - Lab and LD - where doing so can let in the Tory. But they will.

    Conversely, it's difficult to see us leaving with No Deal now, unless through the efforts of Remainers, or at least Softer Brexiteers.

    Farage may find it a bit difficult to explain what the point of the Brexit Party is now.
    The best tactical position for the Brexit Party now is to be a Leave party for the working class. Say they will support Boris's deal but won't let him hurt the NHS.
  • TOPPING said:

    .Amber is a big loss to the Conservatives. As are the others tbf.

    Yes, absolutely. The worst aspect in policy terms is that she was beginning to get on top of the various problems with Universal Credit, and I fear all that progress has been thrown away.

    Basically all the best senior figures have gone since 2015 or are going now: David Cameron, George Osborne, Phil Hammond, Ken Clarke, David Gauke, Amber Rudd, Ruth Davidson, Rory Stewart. It's arguably even worse than the equivalent clear out of talent in the Labour Party.
    We are left with the dregs with a few exceptions. The automaton rubber stamp MPs much beloved of those on the (now extreme) front benches of both the parties.
  • Brom said:

    isam said:

    Brom said:

    malcolmg said:

    Brom said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    IMPORTANT QUESTION

    Do we know if there will be TV debates?

    They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.

    But, will there be debates?

    On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?

    If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
    Yeah Swinson is 2nd tier so it would be with Blackford/Sturgeon and then presumably Green, BXP and Plaid would fancy a bit too/
    Sturgeon is not at Westminster you stupid turnip. Only other major player is Blackford who leads the 3rd largest party ( with 3 x what LD's have).
    I'm well aware of that but Blackford is so awful they might want to substitute her in.
    Sturgeon was in the last debates wasn't she? Despite not being a candidate
    Yes I thought I didnt imagine that, it was in 2015. Obviously they did very well, reverted to Blackford in 2017 and struggled. Seems obvious to me who they should use...
    Sturgeon did the debate in 2017 and Angus Robertson was the Westminster leader at that point, but thanks for your input.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    Gabs2 said:

    Chris said:

    algarkirk said:

    Farage's problem if his party doesn't stand in vast swathes of the country is that he'll struggle to make a case for broadcast parity, for involvement in leadership debates and so on.

    Is it worth sacrificing meaningful access to the air war in exchange for the Tories soft pedaling in a couple of places? I'm not sure it is myself.

    More immediately to the point for the Brexit party is that the only way in which we are not going in the end to remain is if the Conservatives win a working majority. The most likely figure for Brexit party seats is zero, even if they stand in 650 of them. If the Brexit party stand and lose a few seats for the Tories they are highly likely to be the major reason why we remain in the EU.

    For Leavers this election looks very like a last chance. For the Brexit party to stand in selected Labour leave seats that the Tories cannot win is the only sane policy.

    No reason to think sanity will prevail of course. Remainers would and will be crazy to put up two Remain candidates - Lab and LD - where doing so can let in the Tory. But they will.

    Conversely, it's difficult to see us leaving with No Deal now, unless through the efforts of Remainers, or at least Softer Brexiteers.

    Farage may find it a bit difficult to explain what the point of the Brexit Party is now.
    The best tactical position for the Brexit Party now is to be a Leave party for the working class. Say they will support Boris's deal but won't let him hurt the NHS.
    It was only recently that many in the Conservative Party deemed an agreement to leave the EU as "not Brexit". It is routinely said that being in any and all of the Customs Union and Single Market is "not Brexit". It won't be a huge stretch of even their imagination for the Brexit Party to create a reason to keep up the quest for a pure "clean break" Brexit.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    malcolmg said:

    It isn;t the working classes that capitalism hasn't worked for. Its the middle classes.

    That why we have umpteen million 20 and 30something humanities grads earning thirty grand and paying seven hundred a month in rent or living at home with parents. With forty grand in student debt.

    Those are Corbyn's core, surely.

    This is a southern issue - no shortage of affordable housing right across the north of England.

    A graduate earning 30k in Leeds or Manchester can afford a nice home, two graduates can get a large house with garden in which to raise a family.

    I spent last week at home in Lancashire visiting family, and capitalism has worked out pretty well for the middle classes. I grew up there in the 70s/80s, and even though both my parents worked in professional jobs, there were no foreign holidays until I was 16, we only got a new car when my Dad was given a company car, and going to eat out was a rare treat.

    Living standards are as high as they have ever been for the middle classes, but then so are expectations of what they/their children should be able to afford.

    /four yorkshire man mode OFF/
    The trouble is you then have to live up north with its vastly inferior climate
    Bollox, far better lifestyle , bigger houses , more disposable income , southerners just need to have an excuse to justify living in little boxes
    and being stuck in traffic jams etc to feed their fragile ego's. All that money you can just go get sunshine , snow , whatever you like.
    Bigger houses in Scotland? Another SNP myth.
    He meant the prisons.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    kle4 said:

    This won’t be the end.

    It’s very possible we get both a second EU referendum and a second independence referendum next year.

    Yup. Kill me now.

    Seconded.

    I know its partly my fault, but it'll be hell.
    Act of Parliament:

    No referendums except on self-determination issues - and on them, one every 20 years max.

    EU membership is not a self-determination issue.

    10 years imprisonment for proposing referendum outside those parameters.

    Death penalty for smarmy wideboys who abuse their constitutional position with promises that "we will enact what you decide" and the like to try to turn advisory results into mandatory ones.

    Sorted.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    Ave_it said:

    Malcolm we know that Super Jo will increase her majority in Dunbartonshire E and LDs will gain Fife NE.

    How many more seats do you think Super Jo will gain off SNP?

    😊

    I know @malcolmg hates her, but I think she'll comfortably hang on in Dumbartonshire E, and the LDs wil gain Fife NE.

    I think the LDs will also gain Ceridigion off PC.

  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 208
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    .

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory HQ giving Amber Rudd the HY treatment and telling her where she can go....

    I regret that. I liked Amber
    Her offence was worse than the 21.

    She wanted to damage the party and tried to blackmail and threaten the PM

    From a purely disciplinary perspective it’s right to make an example of her
    Evidently not because he offered her a position.

    Not that Boris is not a details man, obvs, but she said he offered her the change to stand.

    Amber is a big loss to the Conservatives. As are the others tbf.
    Amber is no loss. She had plenty of time to have sorted out Windrush with generous gestures before it went toxic.
    She was not given the full picture on Windrush.
    Good riddance.
    She can join her brother in the campaign to rejoin.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.
  • sladeslade Posts: 883
    My first anecdote of the campaign. While shopping in Morrisons this morning I met a former Conservative councillor and her husband. Our constituency was a Labour gain from Conservative in 2017. I said I thought they would win it back this time based on the opinion polls. They were convinced Labour would increase their majority. The reason? The Conservative organisation had collapsed while Labour's had strengthened. It's the ground game argument again.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    edited October 2019
    TOPPING said:

    .

    Roger said:

    Byronic said:

    Roger said:

    Completely OT. Just returned from the Biennale in Venice and it was on the whole pathetic. As you might expect most of the offerings concerned climate change and the environment. All well meaning and probably underfunded but if someone doesn't get hold of this movement while it's hot and give it direction it'll die a death. If ever there has been a need for marketing people to get involved and save something worthwhile before it disappears into tediousness now is the time.

    Are you saying modern art, the Biennale, Venice, the climate emergency campaign, or your personal lifestyle is "pathetic"? Or all of them? It isn't clear.
    All the participating countries have a pavilion. The UK 'show' was chosen by the arts council. It was well attended but almost content free. The choices were up to the participating countries. Most were pitifully uninvolving. The Venezualan one was more interesting than the one from the UK. A waste of a large and enthusiastic audience
    You're a discerning arty type, Rog - but perhaps it all went over your head.
    4 Rubber ducks caught in a plastic sheet with a back projection of sea? I think with the help of their imaginative slogan 'bri tish pavil ion' I got the message
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,795
    rcs1000 do you think LDs will win Richmond Park too? 😊
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    .

    Roger said:

    Byronic said:

    Roger said:

    Completely OT. Just returned from the Biennale in Venice and it was on the whole pathetic. As you might expect most of the offerings concerned climate change and the environment. All well meaning and probably underfunded but if someone doesn't get hold of this movement while it's hot and give it direction it'll die a death. If ever there has been a need for marketing people to get involved and save something worthwhile before it disappears into tediousness now is the time.

    Are you saying modern art, the Biennale, Venice, the climate emergency campaign, or your personal lifestyle is "pathetic"? Or all of them? It isn't clear.
    All the participating countries have a pavilion. The UK 'show' was chosen by the arts council. It was well attended but almost content free. The choices were up to the participating countries. Most were pitifully uninvolving. The Venezualan one was more interesting than the one from the UK. A waste of a large and enthusiastic audience
    You're a discerning arty type, Rog - but perhaps it all went over your head.
    4 Rubber ducks caught in a plastic sheet with a back projection of sea? I think with the help of their imaginative slogan 'bri tish pavil ion' I think I got the message
    Modern Art is not for everyone.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    Xtrain said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    .

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory HQ giving Amber Rudd the HY treatment and telling her where she can go....

    I regret that. I liked Amber
    Her offence was worse than the 21.

    She wanted to damage the party and tried to blackmail and threaten the PM

    From a purely disciplinary perspective it’s right to make an example of her
    Evidently not because he offered her a position.

    Not that Boris is not a details man, obvs, but she said he offered her the change to stand.

    Amber is a big loss to the Conservatives. As are the others tbf.
    Amber is no loss. She had plenty of time to have sorted out Windrush with generous gestures before it went toxic.
    She was not given the full picture on Windrush.
    Good riddance.
    She can join her brother in the campaign to rejoin.
    Enjoy your cleansed party.
  • TOPPING said:


    It was only recently that many in the Conservative Party deemed an agreement to leave the EU as "not Brexit". It is routinely said that being in any and all of the Customs Union and Single Market is "not Brexit". It won't be a huge stretch of even their imagination for the Brexit Party to create a reason to keep up the quest for a pure "clean break" Brexit.

    They will find plenty to complain about once Boris starts talking with Barnier about the long-term relationship:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/29/michel-barnier-tells-uk-ignore-eu-regulatory-standards-at-your-peril
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655

    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    IMPORTANT QUESTION

    Do we know if there will be TV debates?

    They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.

    But, will there be debates?

    On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?

    If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
    Given the Lib Dems are a very minor party it is hard to envisage them getting any invite to a debate,
    You must be very nervous of them to be so obsessed!
    Oh god we're back to the SNP are running scared of Jim Murphy shite again.

    The SNP only make gains against the Conservatives on the back of a Lib Dem surge in Scotland.
    It isn't meant to be analysis. I don't have that much knowledge of the Scottish political scene, other than the rather sad fact that the dominant party has the unpleasant word "nationalist" in it! It was merely an observation that Malcolm seems to get very stirred up (in his usually inarticulate way) whenever the LDs are mentioned 🤣🤣
    The dominant party does not have the word "nationalist" in it.

    You really must stop claiming every ten minutes that other posters are less intelligent and less well-informed than you are.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698

    This won’t be the end.

    It’s very possible we get both a second EU referendum and a second independence referendum next year.

    Yup. Kill me now.

    Seconded.

    I know its partly my fault, but it'll be hell.
    Byronic said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I’ve already been tapped up for donations by the Conservative campaign director.

    I must say, I’m hesitating. What am I donating for?

    My biggest worry right now is on Conservative attitudes to balancing the budget and the macroeconomy.

    Leaving aside the question of Brexit, there is little doubt that this is the least fiscally responsible Conservative government of my lifetime.
    But, the alternative is Jeremy Corbyn.

    That should focus minds wonderfully.
    For the first time I'm glad to be in a safe seat, so that choice will not be affected, whatever I do.
  • Xtrain said:

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    .

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tory HQ giving Amber Rudd the HY treatment and telling her where she can go....

    I regret that. I liked Amber
    Her offence was worse than the 21.

    She wanted to damage the party and tried to blackmail and threaten the PM

    From a purely disciplinary perspective it’s right to make an example of her
    Evidently not because he offered her a position.

    Not that Boris is not a details man, obvs, but she said he offered her the change to stand.

    Amber is a big loss to the Conservatives. As are the others tbf.
    Amber is no loss. She had plenty of time to have sorted out Windrush with generous gestures before it went toxic.
    She was not given the full picture on Windrush.
    Good riddance.
    She can join her brother in the campaign to rejoin.
    We haven't left yet! Bozo's cunning plan to have a GE has made it quite likely we won't, unless he gets a majority, which many would agree, will be about as likely as Scotland winning the next 6 Nations. Keep hold of those red passports folks!
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,502
    slade said:

    My first anecdote of the campaign. While shopping in Morrisons this morning I met a former Conservative councillor and her husband. Our constituency was a Labour gain from Conservative in 2017. I said I thought they would win it back this time based on the opinion polls. They were convinced Labour would increase their majority. The reason? The Conservative organisation had collapsed while Labour's had strengthened. It's the ground game argument again.

    Don't local activists often tend to overestimate the importance of local factors, and underestimate the strength of the national tides?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,040

    kinabalu said:

    Byronic said:

    lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?

    No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.

    Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.

    I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous.

    Heard the following exchange -

    "Fucking Boris eh?"

    "Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."

    Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
    I think this forum has a bit of a collective blindspot as social grades A and B are massively over-represented. Conversely, I can't imagine there are many C2s or Ds who post on here.

    This is why I believe many people are overestimating the LDs. The LDs will do very well with As and Bs but I think they will struggle with C2DEs
    I think this board has always systematically over-estimated the LibDems in all GEs.

    In 2015, and 2017, I had exactly the same discussion about the LibDems in Cambridge that I did this morning. They won't take Cambridge in 2019, just as they didn't in 2015 and 2017.

    My guess is that they will lose most (if not all) of the seats of the switchers & they will lose their by-election gain of Brecon & Radnorshire.

    They will take hardly any Labour seats, but some Tory seats look a gimme. My guess is they will end up in the range 25-30. An improvement, but not the sweeping arcs of orange that some posters gaily talk about.

    rcs100 was a very accurate predictor of the LibDems last time. I'd trust his estimate. He's pretty bearish on their prospects again is my recollection.
    rcs100 is a tenth of the man Robert is
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698

    Byronic said:

    IMPORTANT QUESTION

    Do we know if there will be TV debates?

    They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.

    But, will there be debates?

    Boris Bunter is more likely to blow up on the basis that he is a very poor speaker, who mumbles and can't communicate properly, rather than anything in his private life, which few people care about and which is priced in anyway.
    Hes entertaining but he waffles. Corbyn has well rehearsed lines delivered with conviction, its effective even if he speaks nonsense .
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334

    TOPPING said:

    .Amber is a big loss to the Conservatives. As are the others tbf.

    Yes, absolutely. The worst aspect in policy terms is that she was beginning to get on top of the various problems with Universal Credit, and I fear all that progress has been thrown away.

    Basically all the best senior figures have gone since 2015 or are going now: David Cameron, George Osborne, Phil Hammond, Ken Clarke, David Gauke, Amber Rudd, Ruth Davidson, Rory Stewart. It's arguably even worse than the equivalent clear out of talent in the Labour Party.
    I think that's right - Labour still has Hilary Benn, Yvette Cooper, Keir Starmer, Tom Watson, Jess Phillips, Mary Creagh mostly not in leadership positions but all of them talented in their own way. There are also some less well known MPs on the Labour side who are quite impressive - I was at a meeting addressed by Anna Turley recently and was impressed by her strong advocacy of remain despite representing Redcar which voted more than 65% leave.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 1,271
    edited October 2019
    Has everyone saying that the best favour Farage could do Boris is not to stand in most seats forgotten 2015? There’s a potential sweet spot of BXP votes that denudes the Labour vote just enough for Tory gains in some areas.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    isam said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tories should "offer" some ultra Labour, ultra leave seats to Farage and co where they'll probably never win in a million years.

    Easington, Washington, Middlesbrough, Barnsley East, Barnsley Central, Hull north etc..

    Doncaster North is a good example. UKIP were second in 2015. Majority greater than 14k. Would require a swing of 16.6% for the Tories to win. Eighth highest Leave vote in the country, estimated at 71.7%.

    It's in no sense a target for the Tories. They won't be making a big effort there.

    Little chance of an informal pact, rather than a coincidental one though.
    Farage is supposedly thinking of standing in Thurrock. Cant imagine the Tories would stand aside quietly there
    Yes, well the best chance for a smaller party to win a seat is at a marginal where the winning post is lower.

    When Caroline Lucas first won in Brighton it was only 31.3% of the vote. That won't be enough to win either Doncaster North or Doncaster Central. Would make Thurrock close again.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Farage has been invisible so far. Surely his plane has landed by now.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,795
    I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311

    Has everyone saying that the best favour Farage could do Boris is not to stand in most seats forgotten 2015? There’s a potential sweet spot of BXP votes that denudes the Labour vote just enough for Tory gains in some areas.

    Rumours that the BP won’t contend all the seats . Problem is though if they just pick high leave areas in the Midlands and the north held by Labour that will still hurt the Tories .

    I don’t see any chance of the Tories standing down in certain seats .
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    IMPORTANT QUESTION

    Do we know if there will be TV debates?

    They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.

    But, will there be debates?

    On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?

    If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
    Given the Lib Dems are a very minor party it is hard to envisage them getting any invite to a debate,
    You must be very nervous of them to be so obsessed!
    Oh god we're back to the SNP are running scared of Jim Murphy shite again.

    The SNP only make gains against the Conservatives on the back of a Lib Dem surge in Scotland.
    It isn't meant to be analysis. I don't have that much knowledge of the Scottish political scene, other than the rather sad fact that the dominant party has the unpleasant word "nationalist" in it! It was merely an observation that Malcolm seems to get very stirred up (in his usually inarticulate way) whenever the LDs are mentioned 🤣🤣
    The dominant party does not have the word "nationalist" in it.

    You really must stop claiming every ten minutes that other posters are less intelligent and less well-informed than you are.
    You really stop talking shite and must try harder to have an opinion on things and stop being a smart arsed troll. I mean what do you actually believe in on matters of politics? I have seen quite a number of your empty vessel posts, but I have no idea at all on where you stand on anything. I will knock people's views when I see them if I think it deserves it, guilty as charged (who doesn't on here) but you just make rude comments about people rather than their viewpoint. Pathetic. What a sad little specimen you are.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    edited October 2019
    Roger said:

    isam said:
    Anything by Jonathan Glazer is worth watching though only the Guardian could claim 'Under the Skin' is the fourth best film of all time! I'd rate his Guinness commercial on a par with it.
    I'm sure many have never seen "Under the Skin". It is a weird, disturbing, oddball of a movie that all should see. And it has stayed with me for, what - five years.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    AndyJS said:

    Farage has been invisible so far. Surely his plane has landed by now.

    Maybe he is on one of those solar-powered flights that is trying to stay aloft for 80 days?

    Just as long as it isn't towing any banners.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    Ave_it said:

    I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈

    Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.

    I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,100
    TOPPING said:



    Enjoy your cleansed party.

    There is a line where reasonable push-back by an MP on a policy area becomes something much more serious and frankly unacceptable.

    I would be perfectly happy to go out campaigning for a good number of those who had the whip withdrawn but I would find it challenging to make the same commitment to the likes of Grieve, Hammond and Rudd.

    The leadership also need to take in to account the morale of the members as the campaign kicks off, and re-admitting MPs who clearly could not be relied upon in future votes on a FTA would be demoralizing to say the least.

    It is unfortunate but in the best interests of both sides.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    slade said:

    My first anecdote of the campaign. While shopping in Morrisons this morning I met a former Conservative councillor and her husband. Our constituency was a Labour gain from Conservative in 2017. I said I thought they would win it back this time based on the opinion polls. They were convinced Labour would increase their majority. The reason? The Conservative organisation had collapsed while Labour's had strengthened. It's the ground game argument again.

    The ground game which was supposed to make Ed Miliband PM.

    As a former councillor not a current councillor he also sounds out if the loop and someone who cannot be bothered to help anyway
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429

    F1: sounds like a cost cap for 2021 will come in but teams can spend what they like in 2020.

    This should be advantage Verstappen. Red Bull have lagged a bit compared to rivals Mercedes and Ferrari, so they'll perhaps be keener to shift as many resources as possible to development of the 2021 car before the cost cap comes into place.

    A team with a decisive advantage under a core rule set can have fantastic consecutive triumphs, as Vettel in the past and Hamilton now prove.

    The bigger issue is the powertrains.
    It's quite conceivable that both Honda and Renault will pull out after next year.

    The electric revolution will have consequences for F1, too.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,651
    nico67 said:

    Has everyone saying that the best favour Farage could do Boris is not to stand in most seats forgotten 2015? There’s a potential sweet spot of BXP votes that denudes the Labour vote just enough for Tory gains in some areas.

    Rumours that the BP won’t contend all the seats . Problem is though if they just pick high leave areas in the Midlands and the north held by Labour that will still hurt the Tories .

    I don’t see any chance of the Tories standing down in certain seats .
    I agree with Time to Leave here; 2015 showed that UKIP took proportionally more votes from Labour than the Tories and I think the BXP could do the same. I'd be interested for example in seeing what a strong BXP challenge in Normanton and Pontefract would do to Yvette's majority.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542
    Win over half seats available == struggling.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,795
    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈

    Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.

    I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
    Yes indeed Croydon Central. Also Eltham. Maybe not Ealing Central and Acton
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542
    AndyJS said:

    Farage has been invisible so far. Surely his plane has landed by now.

    Inexplicable.

    Must be locked in an argument with the money men.

    Every hour he is off the airwaves is lost support for BXP.
  • HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈

    Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.

    I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
    I think it is wrong to write off the North for Tory gains. Durham has seen a c. 10% swing to the Tories from 2005 to 2017, similar for Cumbria. Where the Tories may struggle more in the North is in some of the larger towns where there is likely to be a sizeable public sector vote that will not support them. However, if that block switches to the LDs / Greens because of Corbyn's Brexit stance / anti-semitism, some of what HYFUD suggests may happen in London, with Tories picking up seats as their vote stands still and Labour's falls, may happen in the North.
  • SunnyJim said:

    TOPPING said:



    Enjoy your cleansed party.

    There is a line where reasonable push-back by an MP on a policy area becomes something much more serious and frankly unacceptable.

    I would be perfectly happy to go out campaigning for a good number of those who had the whip withdrawn but I would find it challenging to make the same commitment to the likes of Grieve, Hammond and Rudd.

    The leadership also need to take in to account the morale of the members as the campaign kicks off, and re-admitting MPs who clearly could not be relied upon in future votes on a FTA would be demoralizing to say the least.

    It is unfortunate but in the best interests of both sides.
    ...and what of those that undermined Theresa May, such as the current Leader of the House, and for that matter Bozo himself? Further back if John Major had taken the approach the current leadership have taken the Anti-EU tendency would have been wiped out long ago. It is so so hypocritical
  • On the discussions of UKIP: Richard Braine resigns:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50238421
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    edited October 2019

    Roger said:

    isam said:
    Anything by Jonathan Glazer is worth watching though only the Guardian could claim 'Under the Skin' is the fourth best film of all time! I'd rate his Guinness commercial on a par with it.
    I'm sure many have never seen "Under the Skin". It is a weird, disturbing, oddball of a movie that all should see.

    .....and Scarlett Johansson's naked body isn't too off putting
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383
    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    My first anecdote of the campaign. While shopping in Morrisons this morning I met a former Conservative councillor and her husband. Our constituency was a Labour gain from Conservative in 2017. I said I thought they would win it back this time based on the opinion polls. They were convinced Labour would increase their majority. The reason? The Conservative organisation had collapsed while Labour's had strengthened. It's the ground game argument again.

    The ground game which was supposed to make Ed Miliband PM.

    As a former councillor not a current councillor he also sounds out if the loop and someone who cannot be bothered to help anyway
    Some Labour activists seem to treat door knocking like those step counters, counting up the number of doors they are doing without worrying too much about why they are doing it.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,174
    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈

    Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.

    I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
    Yes indeed Croydon Central. Also Eltham. Maybe not Ealing Central and Acton
    The LibDem vote in Croydon Central last time was 1.9% (Labour got 52.3%). It's not a LibDem target (I know residents there and they confirm they're not hearing much from the LibDems) and I doubt if it will become one.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,651
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    isam said:
    Anything by Jonathan Glazer is worth watching though only the Guardian could claim 'Under the Skin' is the fourth best film of all time! I'd rate his Guinness commercial on a par with it.
    I'm sure many have never seen "Under the Skin". It is a weird, disturbing, oddball of a movie that all should see.

    .....and Scarlett Johansson's naked body isn't too off putting
    I've just read about Mary Beard's undressing at Heathrow. It's quite put me off my tea.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383
    Drutt said:

    kinabalu said:

    Byronic said:

    lol. Did I say ALL OF BRITAIN will vote for Boris coz they like him?

    No. But millions will. That's certain. The presence of Boris in the Leave campaign won it for Leave, as Cameron know, all too well, when he heard that Boris had switched sides.

    Your hatred of Boris blinds you to his electoral appeal, in certain areas of the electorate.

    I do sense that this is right. I was walking through a tunnel the other evening and moving quickly because there was a bunch of 'lads' behind me - a bit rough sounding - and they were being raucous.

    Heard the following exchange -

    "Fucking Boris eh?"

    "Yeah, love him. Fucking player inni."

    Millions? Quite possibly. This country is not full of political sophisticates.
    I think this forum has a bit of a collective blindspot as social grades A and B are massively over-represented. Conversely, I can't imagine there are many C2s or Ds who post on here.

    This is why I believe many people are overestimating the LDs. The LDs will do very well with As and Bs but I think they will struggle with C2DEs
    I think this board has always systematically over-estimated the LibDems in all GEs.

    In 2015, and 2017, I had exactly the same discussion about the LibDems in Cambridge that I did this morning. They won't take Cambridge in 2019, just as they didn't in 2015 and 2017.

    My guess is that they will lose most (if not all) of the seats of the switchers & they will lose their by-election gain of Brecon & Radnorshire.

    They will take hardly any Labour seats, but some Tory seats look a gimme. My guess is they will end up in the range 25-30. An improvement, but not the sweeping arcs of orange that some posters gaily talk about.

    rcs100 was a very accurate predictor of the LibDems last time. I'd trust his estimate. He's pretty bearish on their prospects again is my recollection.
    rcs100 is a tenth of the man Robert is
    You overestimate Robert ;)
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,795

    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈

    Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.

    I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
    Yes indeed Croydon Central. Also Eltham. Maybe not Ealing Central and Acton
    The LibDem vote in Croydon Central last time was 1.9% (Labour got 52.3%). It's not a LibDem target (I know residents there and they confirm they're not hearing much from the LibDems) and I doubt if it will become one.
    Hello Nick. I meant for CON to win (or not) these seats!
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,862
    edited October 2019
    stodge said:


    Yep I think I do need to clarify. My posting was as much a defence of those who voted for Brexit as a means for change as it was a defence of any individual politicians of any colour or persuasion.

    I think the only way Boris continues the (rather muted perhaps) revolution is by accident and that in the end he will rightly be one of the victims of it. I won't mourn him if that happens. Basically I, and I believe others like me, are looking for anything that shakes up the system and ignites change without (hopefully) any resort to violence.

    Our whole political system is currently unfit for purpose and I think those like Nigel who are bemoaning the loss of old fashioned Conservatism or the old fashioned political consensus and blaming Brexit for that are seriously misreading both the causes and the effects of this change.

    As someone who voted LEAVE as well, I think your motives were and are deeper than many if not most. At least you have thought through the "change" you want to see rather than using Brexit as an unfocussed mechanism for change.

    I'm assuming your view is the passing of so much decision-making and accountability from Westminster to Brussels has debilitated the political process so much no party needs to stand for anything as within the EU we are operating within a clearly restrained environment.

    While I accept the notion of the political process being unfit for purpose, what replaces it? How do we design something that works for the 21st century with all the technological advances that come with that? I'm a big supporter of devolution and empowering local communities but how does that operate?
    You are absolutely right on my view on the passing of responsibility away from Westminster but not just in terms of the restrained environment it creates. The EU has also served as the mechanism whereby Governments and NGOs can get regulation introduced where they would find it difficult or unpopular to do so on a national level. Even more than that the EU has also provided a ready made excuse for being unable to get rid of unpopular legislation. Sometimes those who say the EU has been blamed for stuff that originated in the UK are absolutely right. But that is not a reason to support EU membership, it is yet another reason to oppose it.

    I do think that once we are back to a position where we can rightly blame our own accountable politicians for what is being done and can remove them when the country feels they are no longer fit for purpose, then we are in a position to start the process that you and I would both like to see. Far more localism, far more direct accountability including financial and legal responsibility for decisions. It works well in other parts of the world so there is no reason why it should not work here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    Yet another witness...

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/468119-trump-pick-for-russia-ambassador-says-he-knew-of-giuliani-campaign
    Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan told lawmakers Wednesday that he was aware of a “campaign” against the former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine by President Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani over the summer, corroborating parts of the ex-ambassador’s private testimony in the impeachment inquiry.

    “My knowledge in the spring and summer of this year about any involvement of Mr. Giuliani was in connection with a campaign against our ambassador to Ukraine,” Sullivan said under questioning from Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) during his confirmation hearing to serve as the U.S. ambassador to Russia....


    The corroborative evidence against Trump from his own people is becoming overwhelming. Whether his creatures in the Senate will even turn on him is questionable, but the vote in the House of Representatives to impeach seems inevitable.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Alistair said:

    malcolmg said:

    isam said:

    Byronic said:

    IMPORTANT QUESTION

    Do we know if there will be TV debates?

    They could be a game-changer. Boris could blow up under questioning about his private life, Corbyn could deliver some NHS zingers (or be skewered by his terror apologia), Swinson could have a Cleggasm and soar to pole position.

    But, will there be debates?

    On what basis would Swinson be allowed on? Surely not with just Jezza and Boris?

    If she's in them it would have to be with the Greens, the SNP, Farage, the Welsh ones, and old uncle Tom Cobbley
    Given the Lib Dems are a very minor party it is hard to envisage them getting any invite to a debate,
    You must be very nervous of them to be so obsessed!
    Oh god we're back to the SNP are running scared of Jim Murphy shite again.

    The SNP only make gains against the Conservatives on the back of a Lib Dem surge in Scotland.
    It isn't meant to be analysis. I don't have that much knowledge of the Scottish political scene, other than the rather sad fact that the dominant party has the unpleasant word "nationalist" in it! It was merely an observation that Malcolm seems to get very stirred up (in his usually inarticulate way) whenever the LDs are mentioned 🤣🤣
    The dominant party does not have the word "nationalist" in it.

    You really must stop claiming every ten minutes that other posters are less intelligent and less well-informed than you are.
    You really stop talking shite and must try harder to have an opinion on things and stop being a smart arsed troll. I mean what do you actually believe in on matters of politics? I have seen quite a number of your empty vessel posts, but I have no idea at all on where you stand on anything. I will knock people's views when I see them if I think it deserves it, guilty as charged (who doesn't on here) but you just make rude comments about people rather than their viewpoint. Pathetic. What a sad little specimen you are.
    Go back over your own posts, and mine, for the past 48 hours and count which of us has called other people "idiot" and the like more times (and "pigmy" and "canon fodder", which I particularly enjoyed. Consult a dictionary to see why). Consider why anyone would pay any attention to the utterances on uk politics of someone who doesn't know what SNP stands for. And ffs stop saying "swiveleyed."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    isam said:
    Anything by Jonathan Glazer is worth watching though only the Guardian could claim 'Under the Skin' is the fourth best film of all time! I'd rate his Guinness commercial on a par with it.
    I'm sure many have never seen "Under the Skin". It is a weird, disturbing, oddball of a movie that all should see.

    .....and Scarlett Johansson's naked body isn't too off putting
    It was a hell of a coup to get her to do that movie - and to be naked. The script must have said wonderful things to her. And she returned the favour.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    SunnyJim said:

    TOPPING said:



    Enjoy your cleansed party.

    There is a line where reasonable push-back by an MP on a policy area becomes something much more serious and frankly unacceptable.

    I would be perfectly happy to go out campaigning for a good number of those who had the whip withdrawn but I would find it challenging to make the same commitment to the likes of Grieve, Hammond and Rudd.

    The leadership also need to take in to account the morale of the members as the campaign kicks off, and re-admitting MPs who clearly could not be relied upon in future votes on a FTA would be demoralizing to say the least.

    It is unfortunate but in the best interests of both sides.
    ...and what of those that undermined Theresa May, such as the current Leader of the House, and for that matter Bozo himself? Further back if John Major had taken the approach the current leadership have taken the Anti-EU tendency would have been wiped out long ago. It is so so hypocritical
    All the old, europhile Tory establishment had to do was offer and deliver one of the many many promised referendums. Maastricht, Lisbon, whatever.

    If they had done that, they would have saved themselves, their party, and their country from this nightmare. Brexit would not even exist as a word, as euroscepticism would have been democratically vented and the pressure released.

    The Tory europhiles chose not to do that, and chose instead to keep handing over British sovereignty, and sinking Britain deeper into the project, without voter approval.

    So now they are reaping what they sowed. It must be bitter and it must be painful, but it is also brutally deserved.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Overseas voters are being advised to appoint a proxy rather than a postal vote, because of fears there won't be time for postal votes to complete the return journey.

    Would any of PBers overseas voters care to comment?
  • Prediction for the election

    1. BoJo will win a large majority (50+) - the WWC vote will move further to the Tories but the Labour public sector / professional middle class vote will split because of Brexit / anti-semitism. That will let the Tories win seats they should not;
    2. There will be some spectacular Lib Dem gains in some of the urban, professional seats that Labour hold in London and the big cities as these voters desert Labour. However, in Remain but wealthy Tory seats in the South, fears over Corbyn and the impact on their wealth will persuade many to stick, reluctantly, with the Conservatives.
    3. The SNP will do less well in Scotland than everyone thinks. The main dividing line in Scotland, far more than Brexit, seems to be independence. Pro-Union voters will vote en masse for the candidates likely to keep out the SNP. Ironically, the SNP might be better off downplaying indeyref2;
    4. Labour's BAME vote will remain solid. That is likely to make Labour more and more a BAME focused party. That is starting to coming through in the selection of candidates (Poplar, West Midlands). For Labour, it has the advantage of solidifying their vote in urban areas with large ethnic (or, more accurately, Pakistani / Bangladeshi communities) but raises questions about the impact on the WWC base and also communities such as those of Indian heritage and, possibly, Black Christian background
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,334

    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈

    Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.

    I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
    Yes indeed Croydon Central. Also Eltham. Maybe not Ealing Central and Acton
    The LibDem vote in Croydon Central last time was 1.9% (Labour got 52.3%). It's not a LibDem target (I know residents there and they confirm they're not hearing much from the LibDems) and I doubt if it will become one.
    Yes, the Lib Dems are all about targetting, despite the rather overblown rhetoric that Simpson comes out with they will only fight hard on the ground in perhaps 100 constituencies - they don't have the resources to do more. And if they have no presence on the ground their ability to pick up votes will be limited - in seats like Croydon Central Labour will mop up most of the remain vote because they will be the only serious challenger to the Tories.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383
    AndyJS said:

    It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.


    Yes. There are lots of places a short train ride from Venice that are a joy to visit, such as Treviso or Padua.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,935
    Byronic said:

    SunnyJim said:

    TOPPING said:



    Enjoy your cleansed party.

    There is a line where reasonable push-back by an MP on a policy area becomes something much more serious and frankly unacceptable.

    I would be perfectly happy to go out campaigning for a good number of those who had the whip withdrawn but I would find it challenging to make the same commitment to the likes of Grieve, Hammond and Rudd.

    The leadership also need to take in to account the morale of the members as the campaign kicks off, and re-admitting MPs who clearly could not be relied upon in future votes on a FTA would be demoralizing to say the least.

    It is unfortunate but in the best interests of both sides.
    ...and what of those that undermined Theresa May, such as the current Leader of the House, and for that matter Bozo himself? Further back if John Major had taken the approach the current leadership have taken the Anti-EU tendency would have been wiped out long ago. It is so so hypocritical
    All the old, europhile Tory establishment had to do was offer and deliver one of the many many promised referendums. Maastricht, Lisbon, whatever.

    If they had done that, they would have saved themselves, their party, and their country from this nightmare. Brexit would not even exist as a word, as euroscepticism would have been democratically vented and the pressure released.

    The Tory europhiles chose not to do that, and chose instead to keep handing over British sovereignty, and sinking Britain deeper into the project, without voter approval.

    So now they are reaping what they sowed. It must be bitter and it must be painful, but it is also brutally deserved.
    This has nothing to do with any of that. This is about scapegoating immigration and other government policies on the EU because governments of red and blue have been unable to take responsibility and tell the truth.

    Britain is not opposed to the European project.
  • On the discussions of UKIP: Richard Braine resigns:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50238421

    Will UKIP ever just fold or are they going to find someone else now after Dick Braine?
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    This won’t be the end.

    It’s very possible we get both a second EU referendum and a second independence referendum next year.

    Yup. Kill me now.

    Seconded.

    I know its partly my fault, but it'll be hell.
    Act of Parliament:

    No referendums except on self-determination issues - and on them, one every 20 years max.

    EU membership is not a self-determination issue.

    10 years imprisonment for proposing referendum outside those parameters.

    Death penalty for smarmy wideboys who abuse their constitutional position with promises that "we will enact what you decide" and the like to try to turn advisory results into mandatory ones.

    Sorted.

    And hopefully you will be first against the wall when the inevitable revolution comes.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,352
    edited October 2019
    Byronic said:

    SunnyJim said:

    TOPPING said:



    Enjoy your cleansed party.

    There is a line where reasonable push-back by an MP on a policy area becomes something much more serious and frankly unacceptable.

    I would be perfectly happy to go out campaigning for a good number of those who had the whip withdrawn but I would find it challenging to make the same commitment to the likes of Grieve, Hammond and Rudd.

    The leadership also need to take in to account the morale of the members as the campaign kicks off, and re-admitting MPs who clearly could not be relied upon in future votes on a FTA would be demoralizing to say the least.

    It is unfortunate but in the best interests of both sides.
    ...and what of those that undermined Theresa May, such as the current Leader of the House, and for that matter Bozo himself? Further back if John Major had taken the approach the current leadership have taken the Anti-EU tendency would have been wiped out long ago. It is so so hypocritical
    All the old, europhile Tory establishment had to do was offer and deliver one of the many many promised referendums. Maastricht, Lisbon, whatever.

    If they had done that, they would have saved themselves, their party, and their country from this nightmare. Brexit would not even exist as a word, as euroscepticism would have been democratically vented and the pressure released.

    The Tory europhiles chose not to do that, and chose instead to keep handing over British sovereignty, and sinking Britain deeper into the project, without voter approval.

    So now they are reaping what they sowed. It must be bitter and it must be painful, but it is also brutally deserved.
    Don't be daft. For a start there weren't any 'Tory Europhiles' apart from Michael Heseltine and Ken Clarke, whose influence on EU policy since the 1990s has been zero. Secondly, even if that weren't the case, how on earth would this mysterious 'Tory Europhile establishment' have delivered a referendum on Lisbon given that it was ratified by Labour? And thirdly, when we finally did get a Conservative government, far from 'handing over British sovereignty, and sinking Britain deeper into the project, without voter approval', it did the diametric opposite: it reached agreement to halt the transfer, and did ask for voter approval.

    Unfortunately the voter approval wasn't forthcoming, but that's the voters' fault.
  • IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's funny: in Trieste you're almost welcomed as a guest of honour by the locals because they don't have many tourists but like to think of themselves as an important international city, and so therefore it's one of those rare places where they're actually pleased to see visitors. In Venice it's obviously the complete opposite — tourists get treated like sh*t because of course there are too many of them by a factor of about a million. And it's only a relatively short train journey between the two places.


    Yes. There are lots of places a short train ride from Venice that are a joy to visit, such as Treviso or Padua.
    I also think the same with Bologna / Florence - Bologna often gets overlooked but is beautiful and has some great restaurants. It is also an ideal base to go to Florence for the day via train.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈

    Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.

    I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
    I think it is wrong to write off the North for Tory gains. Durham has seen a c. 10% swing to the Tories from 2005 to 2017, similar for Cumbria. Where the Tories may struggle more in the North is in some of the larger towns where there is likely to be a sizeable public sector vote that will not support them. However, if that block switches to the LDs / Greens because of Corbyn's Brexit stance / anti-semitism, some of what HYFUD suggests may happen in London, with Tories picking up seats as their vote stands still and Labour's falls, may happen in the North.
    In 2017 the Tories anticipated a clean sweep of the Cumbria seats and deployed resources there. Barrow stayed Labour by about 200, and Farron held on in W&L by a couple of hundred as well. Workington saw a big increase in the Tory vote but was about 4,000 Labour majority.
  • Mr Ishmael-Z : You really are a very sad little troll. I can't think of anything more dull than reading your posts, so sorry I must decline. I didn't call anyone an idiot, though I do recall saying it was inappropriate when someone else used it. I am much flattered that you pay so much attention to my posts over the past 48 hours, and apologies I have not found yours so interesting.

    Now I must break my self-imposed ordnance of only opposing people's views and not insulting them directly. You really are an exception. You are a moron! Please don't take another 15 mins to respond, as it is time I logged out Have a nice evening and see whether you can come up with an opinion for next time you are on, rather than just trolling.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,446
    We need some polls to overreact to.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    MarqueeMark said:
    "I'm sure many have never seen "Under the Skin". It is a weird, disturbing, oddball of a movie that all should see."

    Agreed - a cracking film.
  • PaulM said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈

    Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.

    I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
    I think it is wrong to write off the North for Tory gains. Durham has seen a c. 10% swing to the Tories from 2005 to 2017, similar for Cumbria. Where the Tories may struggle more in the North is in some of the larger towns where there is likely to be a sizeable public sector vote that will not support them. However, if that block switches to the LDs / Greens because of Corbyn's Brexit stance / anti-semitism, some of what HYFUD suggests may happen in London, with Tories picking up seats as their vote stands still and Labour's falls, may happen in the North.
    In 2017 the Tories anticipated a clean sweep of the Cumbria seats and deployed resources there. Barrow stayed Labour by about 200, and Farron held on in W&L by a couple of hundred as well. Workington saw a big increase in the Tory vote but was about 4,000 Labour majority.
    I think generally in 2017 in many of those WWC seats, Labour held on because there was a degree of the "Labour till I die" attitude still there. Being brutal, death have probably taken some of those voters and Brexit has taken others. One big issue that could make this election very volatile in terms of seat changes is that a disproportionate number have very small majorities. It won't take much in terms of voters switching / staying at home to change the seats.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383

    Overseas voters are being advised to appoint a proxy rather than a postal vote, because of fears there won't be time for postal votes to complete the return journey.

    Would any of PBers overseas voters care to comment?

    Certainly global mails circulation slows down during Xmas (just look how early are the overseas last posting dates for Xmas), and it will be much more difficult for Royal Mail to expedite postal votes within the Inward Foreign, which tends to take a low priority during Christmas Pressure.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Andrew said:

    We need some polls to overreact to.

    In 2010 and 2015 we seemed to be getting a new poll practically every five minutes.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    SunnyJim said:

    TOPPING said:



    Enjoy your cleansed party.

    There is a line where reasonable push-back by an MP on a policy area becomes something much more serious and frankly unacceptable.

    I would be perfectly happy to go out campaigning for a good number of those who had the whip withdrawn but I would find it challenging to make the same commitment to the likes of Grieve, Hammond and Rudd.

    The leadership also need to take in to account the morale of the members as the campaign kicks off, and re-admitting MPs who clearly could not be relied upon in future votes on a FTA would be demoralizing to say the least.

    It is unfortunate but in the best interests of both sides.
    ...and what of those that undermined Theresa May, such as the current Leader of the House, and for that matter Bozo himself? Further back if John Major had taken the approach the current leadership have taken the Anti-EU tendency would have been wiped out long ago. It is so so hypocritical
    All the old, europhile Tory establishment had to do was offer and deliver one of the many many promised referendums. Maastricht, Lisbon, whatever.

    If they had done that, they would have saved themselves, their party, and their country from this nightmare. Brexit would not even exist as a word, as euroscepticism would have been democratically vented and the pressure released.

    The Tory europhiles chose not to do that, and chose instead to keep handing over British sovereignty, and sinking Britain deeper into the project, without voter approval.

    So now they are reaping what they sowed. It must be bitter and it must be painful, but it is also brutally deserved.
    This has nothing to do with any of that. This is about scapegoating immigration and other government policies on the EU because governments of red and blue have been unable to take responsibility and tell the truth.

    Britain is not opposed to the European project.
    Clearly you missed the *European membership referendum* of June 2016. It was won by the so-called Let's Go side, who got more votes than the so-called Nah, let's not Go-ers.

    If I remember correctly, several commenters on this site spoke about this now long-forgotten plebiscite, and it provoked a number of friendly but engaging discussions.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,935

    PaulM said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈

    Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.

    I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
    I think it is wrong to write off the North for Tory gains. Durham has seen a c. 10% swing to the Tories from 2005 to 2017, similar for Cumbria. Where the Tories may struggle more in the North is in some of the larger towns where there is likely to be a sizeable public sector vote that will not support them. However, if that block switches to the LDs / Greens because of Corbyn's Brexit stance / anti-semitism, some of what HYFUD suggests may happen in London, with Tories picking up seats as their vote stands still and Labour's falls, may happen in the North.
    In 2017 the Tories anticipated a clean sweep of the Cumbria seats and deployed resources there. Barrow stayed Labour by about 200, and Farron held on in W&L by a couple of hundred as well. Workington saw a big increase in the Tory vote but was about 4,000 Labour majority.
    I think generally in 2017 in many of those WWC seats, Labour held on because there was a degree of the "Labour till I die" attitude still there. Being brutal, death have probably taken some of those voters and Brexit has taken others. One big issue that could make this election very volatile in terms of seat changes is that a disproportionate number have very small majorities. It won't take much in terms of voters switching / staying at home to change the seats.
    Old frothing brexit supporting tories have also died since 2017.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    SunnyJim said:

    TOPPING said:



    Enjoy your cleansed party.

    There is a line where reasonable push-back by an MP on a policy area becomes something much more serious and frankly unacceptable.

    I would be perfectly happy to go out campaigning for a good number of those who had the whip withdrawn but I would find it challenging to make the same commitment to the likes of Grieve, Hammond and Rudd.

    The leadership also need to take in to account the morale of the members as the campaign kicks off, and re-admitting MPs who clearly could not be relied upon in future votes on a FTA would be demoralizing to say the least.

    It is unfortunate but in the best interests of both sides.
    ...and what of those that undermined Theresa May, such as the current Leader of the House, and for that matter Bozo himself? Further back if John Major had taken the approach the current leadership have taken the Anti-EU tendency would have been wiped out long ago. It is so so hypocritical
    All the old, europhile Tory establishment had to do was offer and deliver one of the many many promised referendums. Maastricht, Lisbon, whatever.

    If they had done that, they would have saved themselves, their party, and their country from this nightmare. Brexit would not even exist as a word, as euroscepticism would have been democratically vented and the pressure released.

    The Tory europhiles chose not to do that, and chose instead to keep handing over British sovereignty, and sinking Britain deeper into the project, without voter approval.

    So now they are reaping what they sowed. It must be bitter and it must be painful, but it is also brutally deserved.
    This has nothing to do with any of that. This is about scapegoating immigration and other government policies on the EU because governments of red and blue have been unable to take responsibility and tell the truth.

    Britain is not opposed to the European project.
    Clearly you missed the *European membership referendum* of June 2016. It was won by the so-called Let's Go side, who got more votes than the so-called Nah, let's not Go-ers.

    If I remember correctly, several commenters on this site spoke about this now long-forgotten plebiscite, and it provoked a number of friendly but engaging discussions.
    Who could forget that guy who kept changing his mind?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    Ave_it said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈

    Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.

    I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
    Yes indeed Croydon Central. Also Eltham. Maybe not Ealing Central and Acton
    If Ealing Central and Acton goes blue it is a Boris landslide
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655

    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    This won’t be the end.

    It’s very possible we get both a second EU referendum and a second independence referendum next year.

    Yup. Kill me now.

    Seconded.

    I know its partly my fault, but it'll be hell.
    Act of Parliament:

    No referendums except on self-determination issues - and on them, one every 20 years max.

    EU membership is not a self-determination issue.

    10 years imprisonment for proposing referendum outside those parameters.

    Death penalty for smarmy wideboys who abuse their constitutional position with promises that "we will enact what you decide" and the like to try to turn advisory results into mandatory ones.

    Sorted.

    And hopefully you will be first against the wall when the inevitable revolution comes.
    For questioning a centuries old tradition dating back to 1975?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    MarqueeMark said: "Amber is no loss. She had plenty of time to have sorted out Windrush with generous gestures before it went toxic."

    Interesting that you think that.

    I`m sorry she`s not standing. Her resigning the whip was strange really, she said that she hadn`t seen evidence that Boris was seeking a deal when she wasn`t on any of the committees involved and it`s obvious that he was seeking a deal.

    Shame.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,935
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    SunnyJim said:

    TOPPING said:



    Enjoy your cleansed party.

    There is a line where reasonable push-back by an MP on a policy area becomes something much more serious and frankly unacceptable.

    I would be perfectly happy to go out campaigning for a good number of those who had the whip withdrawn but I would find it challenging to make the same commitment to the likes of Grieve, Hammond and Rudd.

    The leadership also need to take in to account the morale of the members as the campaign kicks off, and re-admitting MPs who clearly could not be relied upon in future votes on a FTA would be demoralizing to say the least.

    It is unfortunate but in the best interests of both sides.
    ...and what of those that undermined Theresa May, such as the current Leader of the House, and for that matter Bozo himself? Further back if John Major had taken the approach the current leadership have taken the Anti-EU tendency would have been wiped out long ago. It is so so hypocritical
    All the old, europhile Tory establishment had to do was offer and deliver one of the many many promised referendums. Maastricht, Lisbon, whatever.

    If they had done that, they would have saved themselves, their party, and their country from this nightmare. Brexit would not even exist as a word, as euroscepticism would have been democratically vented and the pressure released.

    The Tory europhiles chose not to do that, and chose instead to keep handing over British sovereignty, and sinking Britain deeper into the project, without voter approval.

    So now they are reaping what they sowed. It must be bitter and it must be painful, but it is also brutally deserved.
    This has nothing to do with any of that. This is about scapegoating immigration and other government policies on the EU because governments of red and blue have been unable to take responsibility and tell the truth.

    Britain is not opposed to the European project.
    Clearly you missed the *European membership referendum* of June 2016. It was won by the so-called Let's Go side, who got more votes than the so-called Nah, let's not Go-ers.

    If I remember correctly, several commenters on this site spoke about this now long-forgotten plebiscite, and it provoked a number of friendly but engaging discussions.
    What relevance does that have? It was won on lies and scapegoating.
  • On the discussions of UKIP: Richard Braine resigns:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50238421

    Will UKIP ever just fold or are they going to find someone else now after Dick Braine?
    Did you know, that after Kilroy-Silk set up Veritas in early 2005, and the resigned about six months later (when he realised no one was interested in his vanity project) that the party survived another eight years under various leaders before finally being folded up into the English Democrats in 2013.

    I could easily see UKIP surviving another decade or so before finally being wound up. It still has some 'history' behind it and a lot of successes between 2010 and 2016 that might mean something to someone somewhere.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited October 2019
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    My first anecdote of the campaign. While shopping in Morrisons this morning I met a former Conservative councillor and her husband. Our constituency was a Labour gain from Conservative in 2017. I said I thought they would win it back this time based on the opinion polls. They were convinced Labour would increase their majority. The reason? The Conservative organisation had collapsed while Labour's had strengthened. It's the ground game argument again.

    The ground game which was supposed to make Ed Miliband PM.

    As a former councillor not a current councillor he also sounds out if the loop and someone who cannot be bothered to help anyway
    Some Labour activists seem to treat door knocking like those step counters, counting up the number of doors they are doing without worrying too much about why they are doing it.
    The main point is to id your voters and get them out to vote but you need the voters for your party in the first place
  • PaulM said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ave_it said:

    I think we (that's CON for those posters who don't know me) are more likely to gain seats in South and Midlands which we held in 2010 rather than seats such as Bishop Auckland which we haven't won since 1931 😈

    Or in London where the swing from Labour to the LDs is highest even if the Tory vote largely stands still.

    Seats like Enfield Southgate, Eltham, Croydon Central, even Brentford and Isleworth and Enfirld North come into play as a result. All were Tory in 2010 or 2015.

    I cannot see the Tories gaining many seats in the North Thatcher or Cameron did not win, though Bishop Auckland may be an exception
    I think it is wrong to write off the North for Tory gains. Durham has seen a c. 10% swing to the Tories from 2005 to 2017, similar for Cumbria. Where the Tories may struggle more in the North is in some of the larger towns where there is likely to be a sizeable public sector vote that will not support them. However, if that block switches to the LDs / Greens because of Corbyn's Brexit stance / anti-semitism, some of what HYFUD suggests may happen in London, with Tories picking up seats as their vote stands still and Labour's falls, may happen in the North.
    In 2017 the Tories anticipated a clean sweep of the Cumbria seats and deployed resources there. Barrow stayed Labour by about 200, and Farron held on in W&L by a couple of hundred as well. Workington saw a big increase in the Tory vote but was about 4,000 Labour majority.
    I think generally in 2017 in many of those WWC seats, Labour held on because there was a degree of the "Labour till I die" attitude still there. Being brutal, death have probably taken some of those voters and Brexit has taken others. One big issue that could make this election very volatile in terms of seat changes is that a disproportionate number have very small majorities. It won't take much in terms of voters switching / staying at home to change the seats.
    Old frothing brexit supporting tories have also died since 2017.
    No doubt. But the Tories have the advantage that all generations usually care about their wealth. For many people, that means they will vote Tory to hold off Corbyn.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    SunnyJim said:

    TOPPING said:



    Enjoy your cleansed party.

    There is a line where reasonable push-back by an MP on a policy area becomes something much more serious and frankly unacceptable.

    I would be perfectly happy to go out campaigning for a good number of those who had the whip withdrawn but I would find it challenging to make the same commitment to the likes of Grieve, Hammond and Rudd.

    The leadership also need to take in to account the morale of the members as the campaign kicks off, and re-admitting MPs who clearly could not be relied upon in future votes on a FTA would be demoralizing to say the least.

    It is unfortunate but in the best interests of both sides.
    ...and what of those that undermined Theresa May, such as the current Leader of the House, and for that matter Bozo himself? Further back if John Major had taken the approach the current leadership have taken the Anti-EU tendency would have been wiped out long ago. It is so so hypocritical
    All the old, europhile Tory establishment had to do was offer and deliver one of the many many promised referendums. Maastricht, Lisbon, whatever.

    If they had done that, they would have saved themselves, their party, and their country from this nightmare. Brexit would not even exist as a word, as euroscepticism would have been democratically vented and the pressure released.

    The Tory europhiles chose not to do that, and chose instead to keep handing over British sovereignty, and sinking Britain deeper into the project, without voter approval.

    So now they are reaping what they sowed. It must be bitter and it must be painful, but it is also brutally deserved.
    This has nothing to do with any of that. This is about scapegoating immigration and other government policies on the EU because governments of red and blue have been unable to take responsibility and tell the truth.

    Britain is not opposed to the European project.
    Clearly you missed the *European membership referendum* of June 2016. It was won by the so-called Let's Go side, who got more votes than the so-called Nah, let's not Go-ers.

    If I remember correctly, several commenters on this site spoke about this now long-forgotten plebiscite, and it provoked a number of friendly but engaging discussions.
    Who could forget that guy who kept changing his mind?
    I thought I could remember him, but I've changed my mind.

    I miss Brexit. It was fun, and it made for lively debate. Everything in politics is so boring now, and nothing ever happens.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 2,200

    Byronic said:



    All the old, europhile Tory establishment had to do was offer and deliver one of the many many promised referendums. Maastricht, Lisbon, whatever.

    If they had done that, they would have saved themselves, their party, and their country from this nightmare. Brexit would not even exist as a word, as euroscepticism would have been democratically vented and the pressure released.

    The Tory europhiles chose not to do that, and chose instead to keep handing over British sovereignty, and sinking Britain deeper into the project, without voter approval.

    So now they are reaping what they sowed. It must be bitter and it must be painful, but it is also brutally deserved.

    This has nothing to do with any of that. This is about scapegoating immigration and other government policies on the EU because governments of red and blue have been unable to take responsibility and tell the truth.

    Britain is not opposed to the European project.
    Unfortunately, we're never going to get the chance to find out, but yes, Britain is opposed to the European project - assuming we define he "European project" as ever closer movement towards economic and political union. It would have voted down Lisbon by a huge majority. As the Dutch and the Irish did. Heck, as even the French did.

    I believe there was in early 2016 a huge majority in this country in favour of the statement "the EU is a good idea in principle, but the practice is very much not ideal, and if it could be reformed then Britain should definitely stay in." The tragedy of the referendum was that a large number of people for whom it was a marginal call as to whether leaving was worth the hassle, have completely forgotten this, and become totally entrenched in whatever side of the fence they happened to fall.
  • Are we about to see the second ever majority government with just 35% of the vote? If it ends up something like Con 35, Lab 26, LD 18, BREX 10
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Are we about to see the second ever majority government with just 35% of the vote? If it ends up something like Con 35, Lab 26, LD 18, BREX 10

    Yes, Tony Blair won a very comfortable 66 seat majority in 2005 with 35%.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,911
    Mr. B, it'd seem odd for Honda to leave after they struggled for so long and now have an engine comparable to the others.
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