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  • Missing VAR tonight.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nunu2 said:

    RH1992 said:
    Libdems up 20% here but only 10% in Cambridge. Could be the increase in libdem share is up more where they were in a state of total collapse but up less in places where where they had some strength.

    Could limit their gains, but 10% increases will be enough for a few surprises.
    The LDs did very badly in NE Somerset in 2017 so they have more room for improvement.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,567
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180
    TudorRose said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    So, you're OK with personal abuse?
    Well, she is. To quote Skinner, if you dish it out you have to be able to take it.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,210
    Come on you polls!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 31,950

    Foxy said:

    Nicky Morgan stepping down is interesting. She was a popular constituency MP.

    Alan Duncan going too, but he has always hated BoZo.

    The road blocks to No Deal are being removed! :wink: I find this worrying...
    Johnson is a bluffer, not a No Dealer.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,175
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nicky Morgan stepping down is interesting. She was a popular constituency MP.

    And gave every impression of being an arch careerist.

    Curious,

    Her move into Cabinet was puzzling.

    I was counting on Loughborough as a bellwether Con hold, now not so sure.

    Lots of flooding recently near loughborough, may make environmental policy feature.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,567
    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Another Nottingham(ish) MP stands down
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,651
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
    Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.

    For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
    Is this an approach to life that you share with your pupils?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,760

    Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?

    NO
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Nicky Morgan stepping down is interesting. She was a popular constituency MP.

    And gave every impression of being an arch careerist.

    Curious,

    Really? Now that's strange. Amber Rudd hinted that she and NM had fallen out over NM's careerism.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,283
    Alistair said:

    Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?

    No, gambling is tax free. Otherwise you could make all you losing bets capital write offs.
    Its less than ten years since we had to pay a tax on either our stake or our winnings?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:

    Cambridge:

    Con -6%
    Lab -22%
    LD +10%
    Grn +10%
    Brx +7%

    NE Somerset:

    Con -10%
    Lab -20%
    LD +20%
    Grn +1%
    Brx +7%
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,281
    TudorRose said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
    Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.

    For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
    Is this an approach to life that you share with your pupils?
    Haven't you ever met a teacher?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,176
    ydoethur said:

    What on earth will happen in Wales?

    Well, last time, Carwyn Jones helped pull Labour through. This time, Carwyn is a broken man (the Carl Sergeant suicide) and Mark Drakeford is no substitute.

    My guess is Labour will lose at least 5 seats to the Tories.

    The LibDems will take Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru, but lose Brecon & Radnorshire to the Tories. I don't think the LibDems will take Cardiff Central or Montgomeryshire.

    Plaid Cymru will fail to take any of their target seats. Their vote will be down.

    The Brexit party will fail to take any seats whatsoever.

    Do we know who the Tory candidate in B&R is? I noted one of the unsuccessful candidates for Monts had a link with the seat and wondered if she might be adopted.

    According to the Brecon & Radnor Express, the Tory candidate appears to be Fay Jones

    https://tinyurl.com/y2vun5vr

    She appears to have worked for the NFU and DEFRA, so the Tories have at least managed to select someone who doesn't look completely inappropriate for the seat.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,926
    The centre is hollowing out.
  • Foxy said:

    But the highly polarizing Rees Mogg there. I reckon they were hoping for a better swing than that.
    And also after the lib dems have had a pretty free ride. They won;t get that now as Andrew Neil is amply demonstrating in his interview with Swinson.
    Lib Dems did well in the Locals there, and seem to have an effective base.
    |True. The poll is a bit weird because Moggster had lost 10 and lab 20 (so total 30) but Lib dem gain is only 20. So there must be substantial don't knows?
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 1,271
    edited October 2019
    Thank you for the Arsenal/Liverpool tip - now already up on the night. As ever I’m sure this site will also make me and others money in the election so please do have the donate button ready to go.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:

    Cambridge:

    Con -6%
    Lab -22%
    LD +10%
    Grn +10%
    Brx +7%

    NE Somerset:

    Con -10%
    Lab -20%
    LD +20%
    Grn +1%
    Brx +7%

    Bigger Labour to Conservative swing in Remain Cambridge than Leave NE Somerset suggesting some Labour marginals in London might be more vulnerable to the Tories than Labour marginals in the North
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,416
    I'm hungry for polls.

    Polls

    POLLS

    POLLS! POLLS! POLLS!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,176

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Another Nottingham(ish) MP stands down
    Loughborough is in Leicestershire.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,651
    EPG said:

    TudorRose said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
    Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.

    For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
    Is this an approach to life that you share with your pupils?
    Haven't you ever met a teacher?
    I am one (albeit in HE)!
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,656
    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s disappointing but not terribly surprising.
    We need barnsien to put that into his model
    My model gives these results for NE Somerset

    Model/Poll

    Con 49/44
    LD 24/28
    Lab 14/14
    BXP 8/7
    Grn 3/3
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,651
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:

    Cambridge:

    Con -6%
    Lab -22%
    LD +10%
    Grn +10%
    Brx +7%

    NE Somerset:

    Con -10%
    Lab -20%
    LD +20%
    Grn +1%
    Brx +7%

    Bigger Labour to Conservative swing in Remain Cambridge than Leave NE Somerset suggesting some Labour marginals in London might be more vulnerable to the Tories than marginals in the North
    Steady on! The margin of error on these polls must surely outweigh the differences in swings between them.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,175

    Missing VAR tonight.

    Arsenal winning away? Can't see it myself even with both sides playing the reserves.

    I like VAR, and it will even out over the season. Leicester has had decisions in favour and against. Ultimately it only makes a difference in a close decision, so by their very nature they are close.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026

    Foxy said:

    But the highly polarizing Rees Mogg there. I reckon they were hoping for a better swing than that.
    And also after the lib dems have had a pretty free ride. They won;t get that now as Andrew Neil is amply demonstrating in his interview with Swinson.
    Lib Dems did well in the Locals there, and seem to have an effective base.
    |True. The poll is a bit weird because Moggster had lost 10 and lab 20 (so total 30) but Lib dem gain is only 20. So there must be substantial don't knows?
    Brexit Party is new.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    Outrageous decisions?
    1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.

    2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.

    3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.

    4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.

    5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.

    6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.

    7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.

    8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.

    Do I need to go on?

    She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,567

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Another Nottingham(ish) MP stands down
    Loughborough is in Leicestershire.
    Hence why I said ish. It’s very close to Nottingham.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
    Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.

    For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
    I have to disagree.

    I’d be quite happy for her to lose her seat, but I do not think any MP, however much one might disapprove of them, should effectively be intimidated into not standing.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,283
    edited October 2019
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:

    Cambridge:

    Con -6%
    Lab -22%
    LD +10%
    Grn +10%
    Brx +7%

    NE Somerset:

    Con -10%
    Lab -20%
    LD +20%
    Grn +1%
    Brx +7%

    Bigger Labour to Conservative swing in Remain Cambridge than Leave NE Somerset suggesting some Labour marginals in London might be more vulnerable to the Tories than marginals in the North
    In Cambridge LibDems held onto their vote share pretty well in 2015 - possibly helped by some Tory tactical voting and their strong presence in local politics - hence having fallen less far, have less upside potential. And the Labour MP has a strong pro-remain profile, as commented on this morning. Whereas in NES the LibDems fell from 22% down into single figures.
  • AndyJS said:

    Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:

    Cambridge:

    Con -6%
    Lab -22%
    LD +10%
    Grn +10%
    Brx +7%

    NE Somerset:

    Con -10%
    Lab -20%
    LD +20%
    Grn +1%
    Brx +7%

    Unless the national polls are way off, doesn’t it follow from these that the Tories are way up elsewhere?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    Outrageous decisions?
    1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.

    2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.

    3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.

    4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.

    5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.

    6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.

    7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.

    8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.

    Do I need to go on?

    She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
    I thought I followed politics fairly closely but I wasn't aware of any of that.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,176

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Another Nottingham(ish) MP stands down
    Loughborough is in Leicestershire.
    Hence why I said ish. It’s very close to Nottingham.
    Well, the whole of the East Midlands is not that big, so everything can be described as Nottingham(ish).

    Derby is Nottingham(ish), Lincoln is Nottingham(ish). Leicester is Nottingham(ish).

    But, if I was a Londoner, I'd try and get these things right.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,000
    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s disappointing but not terribly surprising.
    We need barnsien to put that into his model
    My model gives these results for NE Somerset

    Model/Poll

    Con 49/44
    LD 24/28
    Lab 14/14
    BXP 8/7
    Grn 3/3
    So you’re currently spot on for lab, tbp and green but underestimating LD
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Genuine (and possibly stupid) question: if I make £700-£900 betting profits over a year, do I have to declare it as income to HMRC in my self-assessment tax return?

    No, gambling is tax free. Otherwise you could make all you losing bets capital write offs.
    Its less than ten years since we had to pay a tax on either our stake or our winnings?
    I think Gordon Brown got rid of it in a Budget around 2001/2002, replacing it with a tax on bookies gross profits.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:

    Cambridge:

    Con -6%
    Lab -22%
    LD +10%
    Grn +10%
    Brx +7%

    NE Somerset:

    Con -10%
    Lab -20%
    LD +20%
    Grn +1%
    Brx +7%

    Unless the national polls are way off, doesn’t it follow from these that the Tories are way up elsewhere?
    It's pretty much in line with the national polls which are putting the Tories on about 36% which is down 7.5% on the last general election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,540
    I note that googling 'Liberal Democrats' brings up their homepage under the heading 'Liberal Democrats: I'm with Jo'.

    I guess all parties get a bit much over their leadership.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,283
    edited October 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:

    Cambridge:

    Con -6%
    Lab -22%
    LD +10%
    Grn +10%
    Brx +7%

    NE Somerset:

    Con -10%
    Lab -20%
    LD +20%
    Grn +1%
    Brx +7%

    Unless the national polls are way off, doesn’t it follow from these that the Tories are way up elsewhere?
    National polls have the Tories down from 2017 43% to around say 35% now. So this doesn't look out of line.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,226
    AndyJS said:

    Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:

    Cambridge:

    Con -6%
    Lab -22%
    LD +10%
    Grn +10%
    Brx +7%

    NE Somerset:

    Con -10%
    Lab -20%
    LD +20%
    Grn +1%
    Brx +7%

    History suggests you need to be very cautious about constituency polls. Interestingly, though, if you look at Cambridge you are essentially seeing something that looks very similar to what UNS would predict.

    Con is down 6% on the 2017 election in the polls (roughly)
    Lab is down 15% (so that's a bit more)
    Green is up less than 10% so clearly some Lab -> Green switchers, but plausible
    LD is up around 10%.
    And BRX is up about 7%.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,938
    You'd never have guessed that Liverpool are facing some serious fixture congestion if they win tonight...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,226

    Can anyone explain the logic of this: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/liberal-democrats-face-being-frozen-out-of-live-tv-debates-general-election

    Surely Swinson being frozen out of the debates massively favours Corbyn? If the voters polarise between Corbyn and Johnson that could result in a 2017-style result.

    It does.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
    Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.

    For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
    I have to disagree.

    I’d be quite happy for her to lose her seat, but I do not think any MP, however much one might disapprove of them, should effectively be intimidated into not standing.
    You are perfectly entitled to your view. In most cases, it is one I would share. For example, I don’t like Tom Watson, but I would not have been happy to see him driven out by Momentum.

    I think however in this case she laid herself wide open to reprisal by her appalling behaviour and if she cannot deal with that, that is her problem. She played with fire, she got burned. But unfortunately, the damage she has done could last for decades.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    Outrageous decisions?
    1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.

    2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.

    3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.

    4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.

    5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.

    6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.

    7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.

    8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.

    Do I need to go on?

    She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
    I thought I followed politics fairly closely but I wasn't aware of any of that.
    A lot of stuff doesn’t get widely reported. Ydoethur is a very informative source of information.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    Arsenal cruising - 3-1
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    nunu2 said:

    I'm hungry for polls.

    Polls

    POLLS

    POLLS! POLLS! POLLS!

    NOP
    Gallup
    MORI
    Harris
    Audience Selection

    Those are some of the pollsters I remember from the 1992 election.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992
  • Foxy said:

    But the highly polarizing Rees Mogg there. I reckon they were hoping for a better swing than that.
    And also after the lib dems have had a pretty free ride. They won;t get that now as Andrew Neil is amply demonstrating in his interview with Swinson.
    Lib Dems did well in the Locals there, and seem to have an effective base.
    |True. The poll is a bit weird because Moggster had lost 10 and lab 20 (so total 30) but Lib dem gain is only 20. So there must be substantial don't knows?
    Brexit Party is new.
    Oh yes I see now apols. Are Brex going to run a candidate against the Moggster? unlikely I would have thought.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    That's a terrible atittude. Political decisions, even outrageous ones, do not open you up to personal abuse as a matter of course.
    Perhaps it is. But this is somebody who has for her own selfish reasons damaged the education of millions of children and been highly abusive herself towards those who called her out. So, no sympathy.

    For her family, I can feel some sympathy. But not her.
    I have to disagree.

    I’d be quite happy for her to lose her seat, but I do not think any MP, however much one might disapprove of them, should effectively be intimidated into not standing.
    You are perfectly entitled to your view. In most cases, it is one I would share. For example, I don’t like Tom Watson, but I would not have been happy to see him driven out by Momentum.

    I think however in this case she laid herself wide open to reprisal by her appalling behaviour and if she cannot deal with that, that is her problem. She played with fire, she got burned. But unfortunately, the damage she has done could last for decades.
    I take the point, and have a similarly low opinion of a Morgan, but I’m nonetheless very uncomfortable about this.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026

    Foxy said:

    But the highly polarizing Rees Mogg there. I reckon they were hoping for a better swing than that.
    And also after the lib dems have had a pretty free ride. They won;t get that now as Andrew Neil is amply demonstrating in his interview with Swinson.
    Lib Dems did well in the Locals there, and seem to have an effective base.
    |True. The poll is a bit weird because Moggster had lost 10 and lab 20 (so total 30) but Lib dem gain is only 20. So there must be substantial don't knows?
    Brexit Party is new.
    Oh yes I see now apols. Are Brex going to run a candidate against the Moggster? unlikely I would have thought.
    Even less so after that poll.
  • tlg86 said:

    You'd never have guessed that Liverpool are facing some serious fixture congestion if they win tonight...

    So will Sky (or BT) show the West Ham v Liverpool match during the League QF midweek?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    Outrageous decisions?
    1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.

    2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.

    3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.

    4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.

    5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.

    6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.

    7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.

    8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.

    Do I need to go on?

    She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
    I thought I followed politics fairly closely but I wasn't aware of any of that.
    That doesn’t surprise me. A lot of it is private information that reached me through various contacts who were directly involved. And you will understand many of the issues were not ones the DfE were anxious to publicise.

    I will say for her that she was still a better education secretary than Michael Gove. Any chance he could stand down too?

    And in fairness most of the mess happened on his watch but she had to clear it up, failing abjectly and making matters worse.

    But she was still the second worst. Theresa May was absolutely right to sack her.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.162958820

    The various coalition options are taking up way too big a % of the market.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,630
    On topic. The two big determining factors shaping this election.

    Firstly Brexit Party offering a pact, not getting a pact, creating Peterborough theory in lots of places Tory’s must win and then saying your own fault should have had a pact. What seats should be looking at to gauge if this is happening?

    Secondly, non Labour staunch remain lending vote to labour to hurt Tory. What seats should we be looking at to gauge if this happening?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,000

    Arsenal cruising - 3-1

    2-3 now
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,656
    nichomar said:

    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s disappointing but not terribly surprising.
    We need barnsien to put that into his model
    My model gives these results for NE Somerset

    Model/Poll

    Con 49/44
    LD 24/28
    Lab 14/14
    BXP 8/7
    Grn 3/3
    So you’re currently spot on for lab, tbp and green but underestimating LD
    Yes - but in Cambridge, my model was over estimating the LDs compared to the poll and underestimating the Green - so not a consistent pattern.

    Based on this NE Somerset poll, I'm not adjusting my weights or assumptions. It looks reasonably good.

    Doing this modelling for every constituency gives

    Con 314
    Lab 220
    LD 45

    This will change as new national polls come in and as I tune it as constituency polls come in.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,630
    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    Outrageous decisions?
    1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.

    2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.

    3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.

    4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.

    5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.

    6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.

    7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.

    8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.

    Do I need to go on?

    She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
    I thought I followed politics fairly closely but I wasn't aware of any of that.
    That doesn’t surprise me. A lot of it is private information that reached me through various contacts who were directly involved. And you will understand many of the issues were not ones the DfE were anxious to publicise.

    I will say for her that she was still a better education secretary than Michael Gove. Any chance he could stand down too?

    And in fairness most of the mess happened on his watch but she had to clear it up, failing abjectly and making matters worse.

    But she was still the second worst. Theresa May was absolutely right to sack her.
    But she only sacked her over the trousers?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,040
    One more day to go
    One more day for Bercow
    One man (not him) and his wife (hey)
    One more day for Bercow.

    More Speaker-related libretto shitposting is available at https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticsJOE_UK/status/1189531798902054912
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180
    egg said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    Outrageous decisions?
    1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.

    2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.

    3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.

    4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.

    5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.

    6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.

    7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.

    8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.

    Do I need to go on?

    She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
    I thought I followed politics fairly closely but I wasn't aware of any of that.
    That doesn’t surprise me. A lot of it is private information that reached me through various contacts who were directly involved. And you will understand many of the issues were not ones the DfE were anxious to publicise.

    I will say for her that she was still a better education secretary than Michael Gove. Any chance he could stand down too?

    And in fairness most of the mess happened on his watch but she had to clear it up, failing abjectly and making matters worse.

    But she was still the second worst. Theresa May was absolutely right to sack her.
    But she only sacked her over the trousers?
    Perhaps she was bifurcated?

    And on that hopefully less angry note, good night.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,567
    This Workington Man stuff looks like another cringeworthy shot in the foot for the Tories.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,630
    ydoethur said:

    egg said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Then she shouldn’t have made so many outrageous decisions that laid her wide open to attack, should she? No sympathy, I’m afraid. She wasn’t as bad as Gove, but...
    Outrageous decisions?
    1) Rejecting advice from academics to modify the content of new exams as the previously imposed strictures (by Cummings and Gove) would make rigour more difficult.

    2) Stating an academic who is a personal friend of mine is a liar and fool, because she resigned and threatened to sue the DfE over the blatant falsification of some of her research to make it look as though she supported a course of action when she had argued against it.

    3) Accusing another academic who criticised her for not understanding basic points about education of being sexist.

    4) Refusing a needed delay to exam reforms to allow marking criteria to be checked.

    5) As a result, allowing public examinations to be set WITHOUT marking criteria having been agreed, which proved to be a predictable car crash.

    6) Promoting one to the chief architects of this fiasco from Head of OFQUAL to head of OFSTED, despite having no experience of any sort in any educational role.

    7) Privately threatening reprisals against the Education Select Committee for pointing out that this individual was totally unsuitable for the role.

    8) As a result, having reduced OFSTED to an absolute joke.

    Do I need to go on?

    She was a disaster. An utter, complete disaster and a thoroughly unpleasant person. Good riddance.
    I thought I followed politics fairly closely but I wasn't aware of any of that.
    That doesn’t surprise me. A lot of it is private information that reached me through various contacts who were directly involved. And you will understand many of the issues were not ones the DfE were anxious to publicise.

    I will say for her that she was still a better education secretary than Michael Gove. Any chance he could stand down too?

    And in fairness most of the mess happened on his watch but she had to clear it up, failing abjectly and making matters worse.

    But she was still the second worst. Theresa May was absolutely right to sack her.
    But she only sacked her over the trousers?
    Perhaps she was bifurcated?

    And on that hopefully less angry note, good night.
    No don’t go doctor. It’s too early to get zipped up.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,283
    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s disappointing but not terribly surprising.
    We need barnsien to put that into his model
    My model gives these results for NE Somerset

    Model/Poll

    Con 49/44
    LD 24/28
    Lab 14/14
    BXP 8/7
    Grn 3/3
    So you’re currently spot on for lab, tbp and green but underestimating LD
    Yes - but in Cambridge, my model was over estimating the LDs compared to the poll and underestimating the Green - so not a consistent pattern.

    Based on this NE Somerset poll, I'm not adjusting my weights or assumptions. It looks reasonably good.

    Doing this modelling for every constituency gives

    Con 314
    Lab 220
    LD 45

    This will change as new national polls come in and as I tune it as constituency polls come in.
    Surely Cambridge should be one of the 70 seats where the LibDems and Greens get their act together?
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 1,271
    edited October 2019
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:

    Cambridge:

    Con -6%
    Lab -22%
    LD +10%
    Grn +10%
    Brx +7%

    NE Somerset:

    Con -10%
    Lab -20%
    LD +20%
    Grn +1%
    Brx +7%

    Unless the national polls are way off, doesn’t it follow from these that the Tories are way up elsewhere?
    It's pretty much in line with the national polls which are putting the Tories on about 36% which is down 7.5% on the last general election.
    Thank you (and to others who replied). So if we were to believe this, it would imply the 36% polls are getting the share more right that survation (?) with 29% (from memory)? Lab-Lib movement probably the unknown.
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 381
    DUP could be in trouble. Tactical voting for the Alliance Party may cost them a couple more seats. Emma Little-Pengelly in South Belfast must be a pretty much nailed on defeat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    edited October 2019
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:

    Cambridge:

    Con -6%
    Lab -22%
    LD +10%
    Grn +10%
    Brx +7%

    NE Somerset:

    Con -10%
    Lab -20%
    LD +20%
    Grn +1%
    Brx +7%

    Bigger Labour to Conservative swing in Remain Cambridge than Leave NE Somerset suggesting some Labour marginals in London might be more vulnerable to the Tories than marginals in the North
    In Cambridge LibDems held onto their vote share pretty well in 2015 - possibly helped by some Tory tactical voting and their strong presence in local politics - hence having fallen less far, have less upside potential. And the Labour MP has a strong pro-remain profile, as commented on this morning. Whereas in NES the LibDems fell from 22% down into single figures.
    It does reflect the polls nationally though where the main movement from 2017 is not Labour to Tory but Labour to LD.

    That swing will be most pronounced in Remain areas like London, hence I now think the Tories will get a better swing v Labour in London than they do nationally, the reverse of 2015 and 2017 when the Tories got a worse swing in London v Labour than they did nationally. It looks a similar pattern to 2005 where the Tories picked up lots of Labour seats despite their voteshare going up less than 1% as Labour voters in the capital went LD over Iraq, now Labour voters in the capital are going LD over Brexit.

    London Labour voters are less tribal than Northern and Midlands Labour voters
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 1,271
    edited October 2019
    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s disappointing but not terribly surprising.
    We need barnsien to put that into his model
    My model gives these results for NE Somerset

    Model/Poll

    Con 49/44
    LD 24/28
    Lab 14/14
    BXP 8/7
    Grn 3/3
    So you’re currently spot on for lab, tbp and green but underestimating LD
    Yes - but in Cambridge, my model was over estimating the LDs compared to the poll and underestimating the Green - so not a consistent pattern.

    Based on this NE Somerset poll, I'm not adjusting my weights or assumptions. It looks reasonably good.

    Doing this modelling for every constituency gives

    Con 314
    Lab 220
    LD 45

    This will change as new national polls come in and as I tune it as constituency polls come in.
    Heh. “As you were”-ish on numbers but more polarised.

    In reality I guess you want to express it as a band, so anything from “Tory thin majority“ to “Christ there’s no possible Gvt”?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,304
    Utterly bizarre .

    Nicki Morgan standing down , really didn’t see that coming .
  • eggegg Posts: 1,630
    houndtang said:

    DUP could be in trouble. Tactical voting for the Alliance Party may cost them a couple more seats. Emma Little-Pengelly in South Belfast must be a pretty much nailed on defeat.
    There’s a funny scene in TV show teachers when glancing out the window one of them says “I’ve just seen an attractive dinner lady” and the others disbelieve him, you must have imagined it mate.

    Subtract dinnerlady and insert DUP MP. And that’s Emma.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,656
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s disappointing but not terribly surprising.
    We need barnsien to put that into his model
    My model gives these results for NE Somerset

    Model/Poll

    Con 49/44
    LD 24/28
    Lab 14/14
    BXP 8/7
    Grn 3/3
    So you’re currently spot on for lab, tbp and green but underestimating LD
    Yes - but in Cambridge, my model was over estimating the LDs compared to the poll and underestimating the Green - so not a consistent pattern.

    Based on this NE Somerset poll, I'm not adjusting my weights or assumptions. It looks reasonably good.

    Doing this modelling for every constituency gives

    Con 314
    Lab 220
    LD 45

    This will change as new national polls come in and as I tune it as constituency polls come in.
    Surely Cambridge should be one of the 70 seats where the LibDems and Greens get their act together?
    Yes. The constituency poll showed the Greens on 12% in Cambridge which I think is why my model overestimated the LDs. It assumes the LDs get 40% of the Green vote and Labour get the other 40%. That hasn't happened yet in Cambridge. Whether it happens or not, I think the LDs are comfortably ahead of Labour in Cambridge.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:

    Cambridge:

    Con -6%
    Lab -22%
    LD +10%
    Grn +10%
    Brx +7%

    NE Somerset:

    Con -10%
    Lab -20%
    LD +20%
    Grn +1%
    Brx +7%

    Unless the national polls are way off, doesn’t it follow from these that the Tories are way up elsewhere?
    It's pretty much in line with the national polls which are putting the Tories on about 36% which is down 7.5% on the last general election.
    Thank you (and to others who replied). So if we were to believe this, it would imply the 36% polls are getting the share more right that survation (?) with 29% (from memory)? Lab-Lib movement probably the unknown.
    It's probably too early to be as precise as that. But the average of the national polls seems to be roughly in line with these constituency polls.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    Swinson very impressive with Andrew Neil.

    Cleverly by contrast being skewered
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,387
    edited October 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour are 100-1 against in Aberdeen South, a seat they held from 1997 to 2010.

    On very different boundaries in 1997.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    edited October 2019
    houndtang said:

    DUP could be in trouble. Tactical voting for the Alliance Party may cost them a couple more seats. Emma Little-Pengelly in South Belfast must be a pretty much nailed on defeat.
    Boris winning a Tory majority and the DUP losing their Northern Ireland majority would not see too many Tories complaining, the Alliance Party are more pro the Boris Deal than the DUP are
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019
    The leader of the SDP, William Clouston, has decided to stand in Leeds Central.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Roger said:

    Swinson very impressive with Andrew Neil.

    Cleverly by contrast being skewered

    Roger said:

    Swinson very impressive with Andrew Neil.

    Cleverly by contrast being skewered

    Why dont you just come out and admit how biased your opinion us...
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    AndyJS said:

    Changes in the two constituency polls that have been published so far:

    Cambridge:

    Con -6%
    Lab -22%
    LD +10%
    Grn +10%
    Brx +7%

    NE Somerset:

    Con -10%
    Lab -20%
    LD +20%
    Grn +1%
    Brx +7%

    Unless the national polls are way off, doesn’t it follow from these that the Tories are way up elsewhere?
    I think that is a fallacy that is easy to fall into. I watched the 1992 election where the polls suggested Labour would do better than they actually did. When about half the votes were in this was clear. At the time I thought that meant that we'd get better than expected results for Labour when the later declarations came in to bring the results into line with the polls.
  • I read posts with interest but the pulling apart of polling even before the campaign starts may inform some for betting purposes, but I am sitting on the fence over the outcome for now.

    All I can say is it looks like it is all to play for between leave and remain

    And lots of partisan posts are no doubt to be expected
  • eggegg Posts: 1,630
    Jonathan said:

    The centre is hollowing out.

    But you can only win from the centre 😄
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,176
    IanB2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s disappointing but not terribly surprising.
    We need barnsien to put that into his model
    My model gives these results for NE Somerset

    Model/Poll

    Con 49/44
    LD 24/28
    Lab 14/14
    BXP 8/7
    Grn 3/3
    So you’re currently spot on for lab, tbp and green but underestimating LD
    Yes - but in Cambridge, my model was over estimating the LDs compared to the poll and underestimating the Green - so not a consistent pattern.

    Based on this NE Somerset poll, I'm not adjusting my weights or assumptions. It looks reasonably good.

    Doing this modelling for every constituency gives

    Con 314
    Lab 220
    LD 45

    This will change as new national polls come in and as I tune it as constituency polls come in.
    Surely Cambridge should be one of the 70 seats where the LibDems and Greens get their act together?
    Is this some new policy of the LibDems, that everyone has to stand down for them?

    The Cambridge Greens are much closer to Labour. In fact, the Labour Council in Cambridge includes people originally elected as Green Councillors.

    Getting the Greens to stand down will be much more likely to increase the Labour vote than the LibDem vote.

    Why can't the LibDems just behave like everyone else, and fight an election fair and square, without nobbling all the other runners with cunning ruses?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,567

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Another Nottingham(ish) MP stands down
    Loughborough is in Leicestershire.
    Hence why I said ish. It’s very close to Nottingham.
    Well, the whole of the East Midlands is not that big, so everything can be described as Nottingham(ish).

    Derby is Nottingham(ish), Lincoln is Nottingham(ish). Leicester is Nottingham(ish).

    But, if I was a Londoner, I'd try and get these things right.
    I‘m originally from Nottingham you plum. I know where Loughborough is.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,499
    edited October 2019
    This is interesting.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-50243306
    Which party would have been likely to spend most on Twitter?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,630

    I read posts with interest but the pulling apart of polling even before the campaign starts may inform some for betting purposes, but I am sitting on the fence over the outcome for now.

    All I can say is it looks like it is all to play for between leave and remain

    And lots of partisan posts are no doubt to be expected

    How do you feel about Dom’s bonfire of the Conservative moderates, death of the liberal Tory. It can’t be all bad because what remains will appear United?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 1,334
    Unlike Facebook, i didn't think that there where that many paid political adds on Twiter? may be wrong.
  • In other news, I walked past Faisal Islam giving a report in Parliament Square.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,542
    AndyJS said:

    The leader of the SDP, William Clouston, has decided to stand in Leeds Central.

    There should be an award for pointless persistance.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2019

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Another Nottingham(ish) MP stands down
    Loughborough is in Leicestershire.
    Hence why I said ish. It’s very close to Nottingham.
    Well, the whole of the East Midlands is not that big, so everything can be described as Nottingham(ish).

    Derby is Nottingham(ish), Lincoln is Nottingham(ish). Leicester is Nottingham(ish).

    But, if I was a Londoner, I'd try and get these things right.
    The East Midlands stretches from Northampton to Chesterfield and Worksop, and from Derby to Skegness.
  • nunu2 said:

    I'm hungry for polls.

    Polls

    POLLS

    POLLS! POLLS! POLLS!

    Czechs! Checks! Cheques!
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,176

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Another Nottingham(ish) MP stands down
    Loughborough is in Leicestershire.
    Hence why I said ish. It’s very close to Nottingham.
    Well, the whole of the East Midlands is not that big, so everything can be described as Nottingham(ish).

    Derby is Nottingham(ish), Lincoln is Nottingham(ish). Leicester is Nottingham(ish).

    But, if I was a Londoner, I'd try and get these things right.
    I‘m originally from Nottingham you plum. I know where Loughborough is.
    Well, then you can describe it correctly as in Leicestershire.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,416
    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s disappointing but not terribly surprising.
    We need barnsien to put that into his model
    My model gives these results for NE Somerset

    Model/Poll

    Con 49/44
    LD 24/28
    Lab 14/14
    BXP 8/7
    Grn 3/3
    So you’re currently spot on for lab, tbp and green but underestimating LD
    Yes - but in Cambridge, my model was over estimating the LDs compared to the poll and underestimating the Green - so not a consistent pattern.

    Based on this NE Somerset poll, I'm not adjusting my weights or assumptions. It looks reasonably good.

    Doing this modelling for every constituency gives

    Con 314
    Lab 220
    LD 45

    This will change as new national polls come in and as I tune it as constituency polls come in.
    If those are the numbers on results day.....ffs this will never end! Please dont let it be.
  • glwglw Posts: 6,013
    Fantastic. I hope other social media platforms follow their lead.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,567
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Another Nottingham(ish) MP stands down
    Loughborough is in Leicestershire.
    Hence why I said ish. It’s very close to Nottingham.
    Well, the whole of the East Midlands is not that big, so everything can be described as Nottingham(ish).

    Derby is Nottingham(ish), Lincoln is Nottingham(ish). Leicester is Nottingham(ish).

    But, if I was a Londoner, I'd try and get these things right.
    The East Midlands stretches from Northampton to Chesterfield and Worksop, and from Derby to Skegness.
    Indeed. Morgan’s constituency borders that of Ken Clarke. Loughborough itself is about 14 miles outside Nottingham. My OP was perfectly valid.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    nunu2 said:

    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    Barnesian said:

    nichomar said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s disappointing but not terribly surprising.
    We need barnsien to put that into his model
    My model gives these results for NE Somerset

    Model/Poll

    Con 49/44
    LD 24/28
    Lab 14/14
    BXP 8/7
    Grn 3/3
    So you’re currently spot on for lab, tbp and green but underestimating LD
    Yes - but in Cambridge, my model was over estimating the LDs compared to the poll and underestimating the Green - so not a consistent pattern.

    Based on this NE Somerset poll, I'm not adjusting my weights or assumptions. It looks reasonably good.

    Doing this modelling for every constituency gives

    Con 314
    Lab 220
    LD 45

    This will change as new national polls come in and as I tune it as constituency polls come in.
    If those are the numbers on results day.....ffs this will never end! Please dont let it be.
    Con minority government on those numbers, and the Deal will be in before Jan 31st.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,387

    ydoethur said:

    That’s disappointing but not terribly surprising.
    Its basically an unsophisticated way of encouraging tactical voting to oust the Tory... :wink:
    Sample size 400 - Margin of Error +or- 5%. Survey is also two weeks old.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,630

    This Workington Man stuff looks like another cringeworthy shot in the foot for the Tories.

    Haven’t we been here before though? 2017, all those Labour MPs up North in leave constituency’s, Brexit means brexit, crush the saboteurs and get the job done, and Tory focus in Labour heartlands.

    So what’s any different this time?

    I can think of one big difference. Surely the flaw in trying to reproduce Brexit and Trump win in 2016, or even do as well as May did in 2017 is there are less leavers and more remainers now? How could we forget Grabcocque and his St Gammons Day? My point being He didn’t invent it, was it not Prof Curtice or someone who had scientifically worked it all out.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Can anyone explain the logic of this: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/30/liberal-democrats-face-being-frozen-out-of-live-tv-debates-general-election

    Surely Swinson being frozen out of the debates massively favours Corbyn? If the voters polarise between Corbyn and Johnson that could result in a 2017-style result.

    It does.
    So why would Boris's team be in favour of this? Surely Boris should want to have a 7-way debate like Cameron dominated in 2015?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,567

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Another Nottingham(ish) MP stands down
    Loughborough is in Leicestershire.
    Hence why I said ish. It’s very close to Nottingham.
    Well, the whole of the East Midlands is not that big, so everything can be described as Nottingham(ish).

    Derby is Nottingham(ish), Lincoln is Nottingham(ish). Leicester is Nottingham(ish).

    But, if I was a Londoner, I'd try and get these things right.
    I‘m originally from Nottingham you plum. I know where Loughborough is.
    Well, then you can describe it correctly as in Leicestershire.
    I’ll describe it as I like. Nowhere did I deny it was in Leicestershire. E.g. Long Eaton is in Derbyshire but still Nottingham(ish). For crying out loud man.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,416
    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    That’s disappointing but not terribly surprising.
    Its basically an unsophisticated way of encouraging tactical voting to oust the Tory... :wink:
    Sample size 400 - Margin of Error +or- 5%. Survey is also two weeks old.
    Oh, so the libdems sat on it for a while...... interesting.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,567
    egg said:

    This Workington Man stuff looks like another cringeworthy shot in the foot for the Tories.

    Haven’t we been here before though? 2017, all those Labour MPs up North in leave constituency’s, Brexit means brexit, crush the saboteurs and get the job done, and Tory focus in Labour heartlands.

    So what’s any different this time?

    I can think of one big difference. Surely the flaw in trying to reproduce Brexit and Trump win in 2016, or even do as well as May did in 2017 is there are less leavers and more remainers now? How could we forget Grabcocque and his St Gammons Day? My point being He didn’t invent it, was it not Prof Curtice or someone who had scientifically worked it all out.
    What’s St Gammon’s Day? I missed that but sounds, erm, interesting...
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,316

    AndyJS said:

    Nicky Morgan standing down.

    She cites personal abuse and the effect on her family.
    Another Nottingham(ish) MP stands down
    Loughborough is in Leicestershire.
    Hence why I said ish. It’s very close to Nottingham.
    Well, the whole of the East Midlands is not that big, so everything can be described as Nottingham(ish).

    Derby is Nottingham(ish), Lincoln is Nottingham(ish). Leicester is Nottingham(ish).

    But, if I was a Londoner, I'd try and get these things right.
    I‘m originally from Nottingham you plum. I know where Loughborough is.
    Well, then you can describe it correctly as in Leicestershire.
    Nonono, in political discourse, “East Midlands” means only Mansfield, Broxtowe and Ashfield or whatever it’s called.

    Which irks me mightily as an exiled Rutlander.
This discussion has been closed.