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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How each Westminster seat voted at the May 2019 Euros
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How each Westminster seat voted at the May 2019 Euros
The chart above is based on projections from Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway on how each Westminster constituency in the Euro elections on May23rd – the most recent election when the whole nation voted.
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LDs only got 23% in North Devon, 17% in North Cornwall though ie Tory seats traditionally Liberal and in North Norfolk and Eastbourne, both Tory targets held by the LDs, the LDs got only 28% and 25%.
Expect a LD surge in wealthy parts of London and university cities and some Home Counties Remain areas and a damp squib elsewhere
Another supposed "member of the public" turns out to be a tory activist plant in Thursday's question time. It's fundamentally dishonest of the bbc having activists from these parties (and likewise when it's a labour or LD plant) and spout their propaganda being treated as if it's some random member of Joe Public having their say. They should be labelled as activists or party members. Otherwise why not just send actual Labour MPs to sit in the audience and shout "Tory Trump brexit deal selling our NHS" for example, it would carry as much credibility.
Party members make up a miniscule percentage of the public, it's completely unrepresentative stuffing the audience with them. If they can't find enough non party members to participate they should just make the studio smaller.
FFS the separatists haven't won yet y'know.
"Sunil masturbated, gently.…"
https://twitter.com/KingOfHits/status/1189863856161591297?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/12619/general-election-2019
sizable SNP vote - over 50pc vote; not so much.
I really need the Scottish figures (to be precise, the Aberdeen North figures) so I know where my tactical anti-separatist vote goes.
I went to see Any Questions one time in Exeter while a member of the Green Party. Should I have been barred? Was I not a member of the public as well as a member of a political party?
One data point: how does your prediction square with the Rees-Mogg constituency poll and Lab->LD shift suggested there? Not London, university or Home Counties.
I can definitely see there being some useful data there, but I'd like to see how it performed in the past.
It's hardly rocket science.
Still, they've come up with the rad strategy of putting the fresh new face of..er..Ruth Davidson on their literature.
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1189209587850854400?s=20
Personally I would rather audience members had the personal integrity of identifying themself as an activist before they ask a question, but obviously a lot of them don’t and are there to astroturf, though I hope the public can spot the obvious ones.
Moreover even those naive enough to take such data at face value need to allow for a significant swing against both Brexit Party and LDs since that election.The current polls show a swing from LD to Lab of 6% - 10% since the EU elections - and a much bigger swing to the Tories.Today's Panelbase poll has the LDs on 14% with Labour on 29%. On such figures , the LDs would barely reach 20 seats.
There is a "No Deal in 2019?" market on Betfair Exchange, the rules of which state (inter alia) that it would be settled if an extension beyong 2019 were agreed. That happened formally on Tuesday, if I understand correctly. At any rate, it has certainly happened, or we should be out of the EU now.
I contacted them today to point this out, and after a delay for consultation I was told it hadn't been settled, but they "reserved the right" to settle it. Obviously that wasn't much of an answer.
When I queried that, I was quoted part of the rules that gave them discretion if there was "ambiguity in an announcement." When I asked for clarification, I was told they were just stating the rules, not claiming there had actually been any ambiguity. And further questions were met with similar stonewalling.
Eventually I managed to speak to someone else, and they said they would try to resolve it, though it hasn't been resolved so far.
Obviously for a bet of that kind the date of settlement is an important consideration. I understand the need for some kind of catch-all clause giving them discretion, but I think they should be able to point to some real ambiguity if they want to invoke it.
I won't be placing any more bets with Betfair until I get some kind of reassurance that their stated rules are meaningful.
Other places like Winchester in Hampshire (well over 40 per cent LD share) look like nailed on Lib Dem gains.
Maybe it’s just a bit more obvious in these partisan times?
It would allow for better conversation, more relevant contributions from the non politicians and be a significantly better fit for the BBC public broadcaster model as it could educate rather than seek to sow further division.
Announcement expected early next week
CON: 40% (+4)
LAB: 29% (+2)
LDEM: 14% (-3)
BREX: 9% (-2)
GRN: 3% (-)
via @Panelbase, 30 - 31 Oct
The first 2 Panelbase polls of the 2017 campaign showed Tory leads of 22% and 19%. On a comparative basis, today's figures are ok for Labour which is polling at levels reached in 2010 and 1983.On a UNS basis it implies a Tory majority of 38 - with 39 gains from Labour offset by 6 losses to LDs and 7 to SNP.LDs would barely reach 20 seats.
This is a key target for Johnson. But if even half of the Tory to Brexit switchers in the Euros stay there they won't win the seat, unless the Labour collapse is even bigger...
A lot of seats will be decided on who loses the fewest votes
Barnesian's model is intriguing reading, and his assumptions sound good, though it has extreme effects in seats where a major party was locally small - there are several seats where a major party is shown as getting zero votes. The problem will be that it partly uses UNS before applying tactical voting, and if you start with 8% and have a 10% UNS against you then../.
As a Leaver you are the ultimate separatist – rather than work together with our partners and neighbours you choose to isolate us.
So quit with the inflammatory language old bean.
It strikes me that this election is likely to see lot of churn compared to 2017, so looking at 2017 as a starting point is not very helpful. Looking at the Euros may give us some clues, so thank you for sharing this, but it was a very different election with motivated extremes on a lower turnout than in a GE. So useful for identifying relative strengths particularly for LD in Remain areas, but it is just one source among many.
I think we also need to look back at different GE results, each of which can give us something useful. So - 2015 UKIP strength is likely to be mirrored in BXP today, especially as the vote share is very similar to current polling. But current polling for LDs is in the range 15-20 so we should look at anything from 1992 to 2010, and twiddle the knobs up or down a bit based on Leave/Remain.
But one thing I've read on here a few times is a lack of belief that the Conservatives can take many seats off Labour, because it is hard to spot where they might be. It's worth having a look at what happened last time there was a 5% swing from Lab to C - 2010. Labour lost 97 seats and the Tories gained 108. Although local factors may influence a few against the grain, I find it hard to believe that if current polling doesn't change much that Labour will receive anything other than a severe drubbing.
And looking back to another past GE, 1983, reminds us that Labour under Foot polled 28% with an equally left-wing manifesto. And Foot was a better leader and person than Corbyn, so 25% feels quite possible.
Sorry, longer first post than intended!
(And hello to @rpjs )
Surely SNP @1.33 is too long for Coatbridge Chryston and Bellshill?
Does Ladbrokes really think there is a 67% chance of Ian Murray being abducted by aliens and forfeiting the seat?
At the end of every show they advertise for people to phone in and apply for tickets to upcoming destinations. I’d wager that none of you have ever phoned the number - from which it only takes a smidgin of imagination to imagine the sort of people who will have rushed to their telephones.
They rely on local political parties sending a cohort of their members to make the audience at least halfway normal. Expecting the other half is simply unrealistic.
This is free money is it not.
it would appear that we are going to be stuck with Philip Davies, even with Remainer tactical voting. Shall I share this gen with my CLP comrades?
Two the words of praise used “not in any way anti-Semetic” are just OTT.
SW Surrey is safe Conservative. The more interesting local seats are Woking (which has had 3 players for a while) and Mole Valley, which saw a Conservative meltdown in May due to an MP regarded as useless even by his own party, and local planning issues which have alienated even rock solid Conservative villages (suggest building a new town next to them and you ask for trouble).
Winchester is a shoo in but the target of the LDs taking back Eastleigh (talked up elsewhere) looks much tougher.
Con 37.6%
Lab 24.1%
LD 17.6%
BRX 10.7%
Grn 4.0%
SNP 3.6%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
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BTW, I have just got the third leaflet in 3 days from the LibDems -- this one bragging about putting out fires in the Amazon, sending a message to Trump, and action on climate change.
Every sentences is a polished gobbet of mush.
It must be personal, mustn't it? It is a campaign of coordinated harassment, probably headed by OllyT.
Is any other pb-er getting this much junk from the LibDems ?
Can I put it all in a big box and send it back to them at the end of the election without a stamp, so they have to pay to collect it. ?
A LibDem leaflet a day, and the campaign has not started ! By Dec 12th, I will have an impressive collection.
Interestingly (just got a new computer, still using Chrome) the vanillacommunity [at which I write this] is showing up with a red triangle and 'not secure'. Not sure why.
I cannot see them losing it outside a black swan.
https://twitter.com/DavidJFHalliday/status/1190256560112590848?s=20
And that would take away the taxes that Google etc currently pay to the USA and they'd pay a fraction of what they do now.