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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473
    Stocky said:

    RCS1000 said: "Does anyone actually read Matthew Parris any more?"

    Yes - he`s the reason I buy The Times on Saturday.

    He's iconic.
  • nichomar said:

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    This is big Nick

    This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
    That’s goinga little far I would suggest, it will make SPOTY more interesting though.
    It will keep brexit off the media tomorrow
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,937
    Roger said:

    FPT. Anyone wondering why they should vote Labour should go and see Ken Loach's new film 'Sorry We Missed You'. A difficult watch but it does make you wonder why anyone living in struggling communities would blame the EU when the real culprits are much closer to home.

    Well yes. The Labour party.

    If you were a British citizen in 1900 or so there was simply an up-curve. Socialism has undermined everything. The issues of that time were quite rightly raised by the Labour party. They rallied to make us better. Since then they've driven us into the ground with a relentless idiocy.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698

    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.
    Your posturing as a Remainer is pitiful. Europhiles For BoJo is a niche group but you strive to ensure it isn’t an empty class.
    Anyone who uses phrases like 'Jew Killers's hould be ignored if not banned for grotesque insensitivity
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268

    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.
    Your posturing as a Remainer is pitiful. Europhiles For BoJo is a niche group but you strive to ensure it isn’t an empty class.
    I have said on here several times how I think Boris Johnson is a liar and a charlatan who deserves to be called out for his past homophobia. Unfortunately your obsession with me prevents you from understanding this.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 13,787

    Wow even by LD standards this is terrible

    You rattled?
    You should be even when prompted" imagine that there are only 2 parties competitive Tories and LDswho would you vote for" Tory Swinson still cant win against JRM.

    Of course the reality is only 2 parties are competitive its just that the LDs arent one of them they polled 8% Lab got 35%
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    edited November 2019
    nichomar said:

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.


    PB.COM is weird in that it’s interested in cricket rugby and football, but maybe it’s interested in betting opportunities that arise.
    We’re interested in pizza toppings too, but that’s never provided any betting opportunities.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,714

    nichomar said:

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    This is big Nick

    This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
    That’s goinga little far I would suggest, it will make SPOTY more interesting though.
    It will keep brexit off the media tomorrow
    Boooo!
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should not worry about Farage, the Tories already have a majority in most polls with the Brexit Party included and indeed the Brexit Party will pick up some Labour votes in working class Labour Leave seats the Tories are targeting too

    Maybe so. But Farage has done nothing but campaign for decades. He knows how to do it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061

    nichomar said:

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    This is big Nick

    This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
    That’s goinga little far I would suggest, it will make SPOTY more interesting though.
    It will keep brexit off the media tomorrow
    I have to say that I’ve started to think about life post 12/12 if there is a clear Tory majority, what the hell will I do with my time if political intrigue becomes a trickle? If there are only 10 responses/hour on PB. It has provided me with something to do in the evening, that’s sad but that’s how life is, the Telly is crap especially when you’re on CET. Shouldn’t be so lazy as I have catch up and but it will have been a good run. Well done Mike for providing the opportunity to help pass my very quiet evenings.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,336
    Evening all :)

    The rugby doesn't interest me either - I had to play it at school. Probably the most stupid, pointless inane activity for any wet winter afternoon.

    Back to more important matters and for the LDs and Brexit, it's getting importnat to get some attention and coverage. Boris has been a semi-permanent fixture on out screens for some weeks and Corbyn had his day yesterday. Naturally this has resulted in the Conservative and Labour shares moving up at the expense of the LDs and BP.

    Once we get into the campaign proper it won't be so simple and both Swinson and Farage will want attention to generate positive headlines while questionning of Johnson and Corbyn will get one or both into trouble.

    The Conservatives remain currently in a very strong position and I'd expect the Saturday night polls to re-enforce that but we're a long way from Polling Day and I suspect we're going to see plenty of change before 12/12.

    The impact of BP fighting every seat may or may not be significant - I suspect it won't make any difference in East Ham.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911
    Lol - The last time Labour polled over 30% with ANY pollster was prior to the European elections.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    Gabs2 said:

    OllyT said:
    "They have already ruled that out propping up Corbyn, so your question has already been answered. Do keep up"

    "They have ruled out a coalition but not confidence and supply."

    Yes, that`s my understanding too. I think Labour in government propped up by C&S with LDs and SNP is a strong possibility - the aim of which would be to commission a 2nd referendum (though goodness knows what the question would be).

    Betfair have 2.58 on there being a 2nd referendum before 2021.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    Yay! Cleared just the past two days history and politicalbetting.com is now showing comments for me, so I don't need to use Vanilla!

    Just saying in case anyone else is still having that issue.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.
    Your posturing as a Remainer is pitiful. Europhiles For BoJo is a niche group but you strive to ensure it isn’t an empty class.
    I have said on here several times how I think Boris Johnson is a liar and a charlatan who deserves to be called out for his past homophobia. Unfortunately your obsession with me prevents you from understanding this.
    You are Regina George and I claim my $10.
  • Artist said:

    There's really no reason for the Brexit Party to stand at all. A single issue party to support Brexit is going to take voters disproportionately from the only party who will ever pass it. Arguments about the form of Brexit we take are still up for grabs after the withdrawal agreement passes.

    The Tories not getting a majority and the Brexit Party not winning a seat could really change the narrative. Having said that the Tories seem to be successfully squeezing the Brexit Party at the moment and the Brexit Party will be totally sidelined on all non-Brexit issues.

    I think Boris is going to eviscerate Farage during this campaign. No reason to hold back now.

    Baker and Francois launched full on attack today on behalf of the spartans

    Expect more from the ERG
    If leavers see Tory & Brexit as the same team and many do, then Tories might be wise to play is softly as voters never like divided teams. The ERG wing of the Tories are not noted for their wisdom.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    This is big Nick

    This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
    If we win, Boris will get an uplift.

    But it will pobably also cost him any remaining seats in Scotland!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 1,990
    Benpointer said: "Yay! Cleared just the past two days history and politicalbetting.com is now showing comments for me, so I don't need to use Vanilla!"

    That`s a shame. You have missed some stunning posts. Really enlightening. Best ever.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280

    Wow even by LD standards this is terrible

    Survation is clearly being commissioned by the LDs to undertake polling in several constituencies. They are consistently using the format (named candidate) which gave the LDs deceptively better results before the 2015 election and thus reason to hope that they would hold on to many seats which they subsequently lost badly, as predicted by the more standard format constituency polls.

    What Survation isn't obliged to do is to disclose that it is undertaking polling when the results aren't capable of generating the headlines that the LDs want. So far we've been given the results from Cambridge, Finchley and now NE Somerset only.

    Watch out then for seats where the LDs DONT publish a poll. I suspect that there are some other polls out there which the LDs have decided they don't want you to see. If I am wrong and the LDs wanted to scupper that impression, all they need to do is to ask Survation to put out a statement denying that any other unpublished constituency polls have been conducted for the LDs.
    Yes, with a but.

    They're clearly "dripping" these out to try and generate publicity. The risk is that the poll for Constituency Z is simply going to be published the next day.
  • Less than five weeks ago Matthew Parris wrote this article explaining why he was a Conservative:

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/eight-reasons-why-i-know-im-a-conservative/amp/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,035
    tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    He tolerates them.

    At best that makes him a hypocritic and liar and a man of deeply questionable morals.

    I’d go further and describe him as a “passive anti-Semite”.

    But he’s probably not an active Jew-hater
  • Stocky said:

    Benpointer said: "Yay! Cleared just the past two days history and politicalbetting.com is now showing comments for me, so I don't need to use Vanilla!"

    That`s a shame. You have missed some stunning posts. Really enlightening. Best ever.

    That 50/1 winner TSE gave was brilliant. How much did you have on?
  • Roger said:
    Lol! Would you buy a Brexit Deal from these two?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    Omnium said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. Anyone wondering why they should vote Labour should go and see Ken Loach's new film 'Sorry We Missed You'. A difficult watch but it does make you wonder why anyone living in struggling communities would blame the EU when the real culprits are much closer to home.

    Well yes. The Labour party.

    If you were a British citizen in 1900 or so there was simply an up-curve. Socialism has undermined everything. The issues of that time were quite rightly raised by the Labour party. They rallied to make us better. Since then they've driven us into the ground with a relentless idiocy.
    What bollocks "...driven us into the ground..." indeed!

    Let's have some examples of how socialism has driven the average British citizen into the ground please.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,937

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Sorry about the specs.

    I think the tint isn't as heavy as you think though. The idea that the Tory party is a populist mob is simply daft. All of our political parties are very far from that. Labour gets closest via Momentum, but even they can't be described in that way. (Much as they'd like to be)

    I think Mr M that your views are on the left, and I'm as sure as a hairspray that your views are remain. If I'm right on those things then I imagine you might have a tricky electoral choice ahead.
    A party willing to suspend democracy in an attempt to impose a chaotic and damaging policy that no one voted for is a populist mob.
    That wouldn't be likely to make the OED. We're perhaps quibbling about a word. 'mob' - ho hum maybe. 'populist' - you know its not right. It'd be harder to argue against a word choice of 'reactionary' (say).

    I'm sure we'll agree that there is an unfortunate recent trend. I doubt we'll agree that the Tory party has exhibited tank-like defences in this.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,387
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should not worry about Farage, the Tories already have a majority in most polls with the Brexit Party included and indeed the Brexit Party will pick up some Labour votes in working class Labour Leave seats the Tories are targeting too

    I tend to agree actually. The Tories managed a small majority in 2015 when UKIP polled 12.5%.
  • spire2spire2 Posts: 170

    Stocky said:

    Benpointer said: "Yay! Cleared just the past two days history and politicalbetting.com is now showing comments for me, so I don't need to use Vanilla!"

    That`s a shame. You have missed some stunning posts. Really enlightening. Best ever.

    That 50/1 winner TSE gave was brilliant. How much did you have on?
    and hyufd being revealed as Philip Hammond was a shock
  • Yay! Cleared just the past two days history and politicalbetting.com is now showing comments for me, so I don't need to use Vanilla!

    Just saying in case anyone else is still having that issue.

    Bingo. Thanks Ben - just worked for me as well
  • Omnium said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.
    Jenny Tonge says hello :)
    Sunil - do you ever write up your railway adventures? Do you have a blog?

    I hugely enjoy your mentions of adventures in places train-worthy. Some obscure siding somewhere that is only used one day a year to shunt some obscure locomotive is all a bit Harry Potter - a magical universe, but we'll navigate it with JK Rowling and thus avoid the many many dull bits.
    No, I don't really write them up! I mention them most often on PB. Apart from, that I do take pics of all the routes I traverse and stations I visit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582

    Yay! Cleared just the past two days history and politicalbetting.com is now showing comments for me, so I don't need to use Vanilla!

    Just saying in case anyone else is still having that issue.

    Bingo. Thanks Ben - just worked for me as well
    No problem... I am hoping all my cookies are still in place and my defaults for other sites are still remembered.

    If not, well, that's the way the cookies crumble! :lol:
  • Roger said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    Take off your Leave-tinted glasses and you’ll see that the Conservative party has mutated into a populist mob. The Lib Dems have a difficult balancing act, seeking on the one hand to be the party of Bollocks To Brexit and on the other hand to be the party of reasoned governance. They’re hoping that Conservative constitutionalists will overcome their conditioning. It’s happened more than they could have hoped at the top but will there be a trickle-down effect? That’s completely unclear so far.
    Will the Lib Dems prop up Jeremy Corbyn, a man who commemorates Jew killers, supports Hamas and Hezbollah, and is far left of Michael Foot, be Prime Minister? That is the question they need to answer if they want to be the party of reasoned governance.
    Your posturing as a Remainer is pitiful. Europhiles For BoJo is a niche group but you strive to ensure it isn’t an empty class.
    Anyone who uses phrases like 'Jew Killers's hould be ignored if not banned for grotesque insensitivity
    What would you prefer us to call people who knowingly and deliberately take active steps to cause particular people not to be alive any more, and who target those steps solely or overwhelmingly at Jews?
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Tories should not worry about Farage, the Tories already have a majority in most polls with the Brexit Party included and indeed the Brexit Party will pick up some Labour votes in working class Labour Leave seats the Tories are targeting too

    I tend to agree actually. The Tories managed a small majority in 2015 when UKIP polled 12.5%.
    Major mistake being made here. The LD collapsed in 2015 whereas they are resurgent at the moment (Even though I am likely to vote LD or even perhaps Labour I cannot see the LD getting more than say 60 seats). Different dynamics at work in this election compared to 2015, however you look at it. Added to which, the Brexit party could totally destroy any chance the Tories have of a majority...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    edited November 2019
    spire2 said:

    Stocky said:

    Benpointer said: "Yay! Cleared just the past two days history and politicalbetting.com is now showing comments for me, so I don't need to use Vanilla!"

    That`s a shame. You have missed some stunning posts. Really enlightening. Best ever.

    That 50/1 winner TSE gave was brilliant. How much did you have on?
    and hyufd being revealed as Philip Hammond was a shock
    Haha! You'll be telling me Matthew Parris has joined the LDs next!

    Listen, I didn't say I missed anything, just that I had to use Vanilla, which I don't like.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,935
    Why do you guys have an aversion to Vanilla? I think its fantastic and use it almost exclusively. I would prefer if I could read the full articles on it too.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 478
    edited November 2019
    What is the betting on the Lib Dems beating Labour into 2nd place on the popular vote?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,935
    Cicero said:

    What is the betting on the Lib Dems beating Labour into 2nd place on the popular vote?

    If only.
  • IanB2 said:

    So here I find myself, unwilling to support a leader who is a stranger to honesty or principle and who surfs a foolish populist wave for the sake of ambition alone, leading a governing party whose centre of gravity has shifted decisively away from the broadly centrist political force Conservatism once was. Johnson has come; Johnson will finally go; but now most likely ambushed from the right. We all have our breaking point, but for me the time has arrived to give up hoping for a return to Tory sanity.
    I am not sure what that passage is meant to highlight. Parris is the one who has lost his sanity. Naturally he sees the problem everywhere but within.
    Parris lost it years ago. He is infamous for throwing his toys out of the pram whenever he doesn't get his way.
  • For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    We certainly are in my office, but it does tend to be the middle-class professional types who are the most avid followers.

    I remember being confused when one or two office PAs described rugby as “posh”, and said they didn’t know much about it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582

    Why do you guys have an aversion to Vanilla? I think its fantastic and use it almost exclusively. I would prefer if I could read the full articles on it too.

    You've provided half the answer to your own question with that last sentence.

    The other part of my answer is that I prefer to see the most recent comments at the top, near the (full) thread header, rather than have to page down to the end of severall hundred comments.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 478

    Cicero said:

    What is the betting on the Lib Dems beating Labour into 2nd place on the popular vote?

    If only.
    Actually I'd like to find a price- any clues?
  • Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,937

    Omnium said:

    Roger said:

    FPT. Anyone wondering why they should vote Labour should go and see Ken Loach's new film 'Sorry We Missed You'. A difficult watch but it does make you wonder why anyone living in struggling communities would blame the EU when the real culprits are much closer to home.

    Well yes. The Labour party.

    If you were a British citizen in 1900 or so there was simply an up-curve. Socialism has undermined everything. The issues of that time were quite rightly raised by the Labour party. They rallied to make us better. Since then they've driven us into the ground with a relentless idiocy.
    What bollocks "...driven us into the ground..." indeed!

    Let's have some examples of how socialism has driven the average British citizen into the ground please.
    Clearly I can't make such an argument, nor did I say quite what you're asking (but of course that is a logical conclusion). There is the broad brush agreement in timelines with the birth of Labour and the decline of GB. There is no rhyme or reason to connect these things. I just do.

    I also choose to believe that Labour was a force for great good at its birth, and that its been a force for great ill ever since. There's no evidence that helps me, but also no evidence against such a view.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,336

    Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    It's a bit early to be having "doubts", my friend. The Panelbase poll was fine and I suspect the polls tomorrow night will show very healthy Conservative leads.

    I do agree once the campaign really gets going it will get more interesting with Johnson having to defend some of the manifesto ideas but unless BP can get some real traction into the LEAVE vote I suspect Johnson will romp home.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,937
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    What is the betting on the Lib Dems beating Labour into 2nd place on the popular vote?

    If only.
    Actually I'd like to find a price- any clues?
    There's a 'most seats- second place' market on BF
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,387
    AndyJS said:

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
    London is where the LDs are going to have some spectacular results IMO, in places like Wimbledon, Finchley, etc.
    The only likely LD gain in London is Richmond Park.
  • On the other hand, I don’t think Sturgeon will do as well as she thinks she will in Scotland either so I’ve sold the SNP under 50.5 seats there too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    What is the betting on the Lib Dems beating Labour into 2nd place on the popular vote?

    If only.
    Actually I'd like to find a price- any clues?
    The odds are about those of Hyufd putting up an intelligent post.

    You know it can happen in theory, as it did happen once, a very long time ago. But it’s so vanishingly unlikely now I think we can discount it.

    For it to have happened, A Tory minority government and Corbyn needed to stay in place with Brexit being dragged out for another 12-18 months. But very soon one at least will be removed from the equation.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    What is the betting on the Lib Dems beating Labour into 2nd place on the popular vote?

    If only.
    Actually I'd like to find a price- any clues?
    Smarkets have LDs at 3/1 and Labour at 1/7 according to this IIHUIC (I'm not a betting man personally)...

    https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/labour-versus-liberal-democrats-largest-vote-share
  • stodge said:

    Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    It's a bit early to be having "doubts", my friend. The Panelbase poll was fine and I suspect the polls tomorrow night will show very healthy Conservative leads.

    I do agree once the campaign really gets going it will get more interesting with Johnson having to defend some of the manifesto ideas but unless BP can get some real traction into the LEAVE vote I suspect Johnson will romp home.
    No-one has tuned into this yet.

    In my office, I’ve just heard sighing, “shitshow” and a rapid changing of the subject.

    Another bet I’ve made is to sell turnout at below 60% for 12/1.
  • Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    What is the betting on the Lib Dems beating Labour into 2nd place on the popular vote?

    If only.
    Actually I'd like to find a price- any clues?
    There's a match bet with Ladbrokes

    Labour 1/4

    Lib Dems 11/4

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-general-election/225280407/
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 1,939
    edited November 2019

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    This is big Nick

    This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
    "The nation"... Don't you live in Wales?!
    Can't see the appeal of rugby myself, just a load of fat blokes sticking their heads up each others' arses as far as I can see.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061
    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
    London is where the LDs are going to have some spectacular results IMO, in places like Wimbledon, Finchley, etc.
    The only likely LD gain in London is Richmond Park.
    Any evidence for that claim?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,937
    Omnium said:

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    What is the betting on the Lib Dems beating Labour into 2nd place on the popular vote?

    If only.
    Actually I'd like to find a price- any clues?
    There's a 'most seats- second place' market on BF
    Here's a link.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.162913788

  • So after OGH's column on leadership satisfaction yesterday I went looking for he numbers in the lead up to the 2017 election.

    I found them on the Ipsos Mori page here:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present

    It is interesting to compare Corbyn's ratings at the start of the election campaign in 2017 with those today.

    In the April poll (21st - 25th April) which was about 6 weeks before the election Corbyn was

    27% Satisfied, 62% dissatisfied so -35% overall

    This time around at the same point in the cycle Corbyn is

    15% Satisfied, 75% dissatisfied so -60% overall

    By a week before the election in 2017 Corbyn had improved his ratings to

    39% Satisfied, 50% dissatisfied so -11% overall

    An improvement of 24% on the start of the campaign.

    What do people think of him doing a similar job this time? That would still leave him on -36% satisfaction.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    This is big Nick

    This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
    "The nation"... Don't you live in Wales?!
    Can't see the appeal of rugby myself, just a load of fat blokes sticking their heads up each others' arses as far as I can see.
    Well, if you’re voting Labour that must have some attraction for you...
  • stodge said:

    Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    It's a bit early to be having "doubts", my friend. The Panelbase poll was fine and I suspect the polls tomorrow night will show very healthy Conservative leads.

    I do agree once the campaign really gets going it will get more interesting with Johnson having to defend some of the manifesto ideas but unless BP can get some real traction into the LEAVE vote I suspect Johnson will romp home.
    No-one has tuned into this yet.

    In my office, I’ve just heard sighing, “shitshow” and a rapid changing of the subject.

    Another bet I’ve made is to sell turnout at below 60% for 12/1.
    Don't you have to wait for the 12 day weather forecast before betting on turnover? Some unseasonal weather could make a nonsense of it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582

    stodge said:

    Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    It's a bit early to be having "doubts", my friend. The Panelbase poll was fine and I suspect the polls tomorrow night will show very healthy Conservative leads.

    I do agree once the campaign really gets going it will get more interesting with Johnson having to defend some of the manifesto ideas but unless BP can get some real traction into the LEAVE vote I suspect Johnson will romp home.
    No-one has tuned into this yet.

    In my office, I’ve just heard sighing, “shitshow” and a rapid changing of the subject.

    Another bet I’ve made is to sell turnout at below 60% for 12/1.
    Sorry for being an ignoramus but does 'selling' in this context mean you profit if turnout is below 60%?
  • Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    Michael Portillo has a famous motto:

    "Who Dares Wins"

    WE dare! WE will WIN!

  • ydoethur said:

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    This is big Nick

    This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
    "The nation"... Don't you live in Wales?!
    Can't see the appeal of rugby myself, just a load of fat blokes sticking their heads up each others' arses as far as I can see.
    Well, if you’re voting Labour that must have some attraction for you...
    I genuinely have no idea what you are talking about.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    So after OGH's column on leadership satisfaction yesterday I went looking for he numbers in the lead up to the 2017 election.

    I found them on the Ipsos Mori page here:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present

    It is interesting to compare Corbyn's ratings at the start of the election campaign in 2017 with those today.

    In the April poll (21st - 25th April) which was about 6 weeks before the election Corbyn was

    27% Satisfied, 62% dissatisfied so -35% overall

    This time around at the same point in the cycle Corbyn is

    15% Satisfied, 75% dissatisfied so -60% overall

    By a week before the election in 2017 Corbyn had improved his ratings to

    39% Satisfied, 50% dissatisfied so -11% overall

    An improvement of 24% on the start of the campaign.

    What do people think of him doing a similar job this time? That would still leave him on -36% satisfaction.

    It’s hard to imagine it could get worse than that, so it’s logical to expect some improvement.

    It’s also however very hard to see it being restored to sufficient extent to make his party a contender for power.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 478

    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    What is the betting on the Lib Dems beating Labour into 2nd place on the popular vote?

    If only.
    Actually I'd like to find a price- any clues?
    There's a match bet with Ladbrokes

    Labour 1/4

    Lib Dems 11/4

    https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/uk/uk-politics/next-general-election/225280407/
    Thanks. With JC on c. -60 approval, I think that might be value. I'll do the maths and think about it. I understand that the Lib Dems have a war chest at least three times more than they have ever fought with before.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    ydoethur said:

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    This is big Nick

    This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
    "The nation"... Don't you live in Wales?!
    Can't see the appeal of rugby myself, just a load of fat blokes sticking their heads up each others' arses as far as I can see.
    Well, if you’re voting Labour that must have some attraction for you...
    I genuinely have no idea what you are talking about.
    It was an attempt at an ironic metaphor for the way Labour’s leadership behaves towards their union overlords, ooops, allies.

    Not perhaps one of my abler witticisms but it is a Friday evening.
  • stodge said:

    Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    It's a bit early to be having "doubts", my friend. The Panelbase poll was fine and I suspect the polls tomorrow night will show very healthy Conservative leads.

    I do agree once the campaign really gets going it will get more interesting with Johnson having to defend some of the manifesto ideas but unless BP can get some real traction into the LEAVE vote I suspect Johnson will romp home.
    No-one has tuned into this yet.

    In my office, I’ve just heard sighing, “shitshow” and a rapid changing of the subject.

    Another bet I’ve made is to sell turnout at below 60% for 12/1.
    Don't you have to wait for the 12 day weather forecast before betting on turnover? Some unseasonal weather could make a nonsense of it.
    Yes, but then the odds might drop.

    My “nose” is telling me people are fed up rather than energised by this.

    So far..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Punters are probably being a bit too cautious about the odds of a Tory majority. With double digit leads in most polls you'd think at least a small majority would be likely.
  • stodge said:

    Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    It's a bit early to be having "doubts", my friend. The Panelbase poll was fine and I suspect the polls tomorrow night will show very healthy Conservative leads.

    I do agree once the campaign really gets going it will get more interesting with Johnson having to defend some of the manifesto ideas but unless BP can get some real traction into the LEAVE vote I suspect Johnson will romp home.
    No-one has tuned into this yet.

    In my office, I’ve just heard sighing, “shitshow” and a rapid changing of the subject.

    Another bet I’ve made is to sell turnout at below 60% for 12/1.
    Sorry for being an ignoramus but does 'selling' in this context mean you profit if turnout is below 60%?

    Yes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    Roger said:
    Makes Boris look a lot like Patrick Marber.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061

    stodge said:

    Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    It's a bit early to be having "doubts", my friend. The Panelbase poll was fine and I suspect the polls tomorrow night will show very healthy Conservative leads.

    I do agree once the campaign really gets going it will get more interesting with Johnson having to defend some of the manifesto ideas but unless BP can get some real traction into the LEAVE vote I suspect Johnson will romp home.
    No-one has tuned into this yet.

    In my office, I’ve just heard sighing, “shitshow” and a rapid changing of the subject.

    Another bet I’ve made is to sell turnout at below 60% for 12/1.
    Are you betting on the weather? Really below 60% that would throw all predictions into doubt. The beneficiaries would be those most skilled in differential turnout elections.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    For those of us who don't follow rugby (surely a majority?), the 6 o'clock news was weird - 8 minutes on the game before mentioning anything else. I remember at World Cup time people at the office were talking about it every day, but nobody has mentioned the rugby tournament at all.

    This is big Nick

    This is the World Cup and and if England win it will be a huge fillip to the nation in these depressing times
    "The nation"... Don't you live in Wales?!
    Can't see the appeal of rugby myself, just a load of fat blokes sticking their heads up each others' arses as far as I can see.
    Well, if you’re voting Labour that must have some attraction for you...
    I genuinely have no idea what you are talking about.
    It was an attempt at an ironic metaphor for the way Labour’s leadership behaves towards their union overlords, ooops, allies.

    Not perhaps one of my abler witticisms but it is a Friday evening.
    I think you might need to do some work on your Edinburgh show 😆
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    IanB2 said:

    So here I find myself, unwilling to support a leader who is a stranger to honesty or principle and who surfs a foolish populist wave for the sake of ambition alone, leading a governing party whose centre of gravity has shifted decisively away from the broadly centrist political force Conservatism once was. Johnson has come; Johnson will finally go; but now most likely ambushed from the right. We all have our breaking point, but for me the time has arrived to give up hoping for a return to Tory sanity.
    I am not sure what that passage is meant to highlight. Parris is the one who has lost his sanity. Naturally he sees the problem everywhere but within.
    Parris lost it years ago. He is infamous for throwing his toys out of the pram whenever he doesn't get his way.
    Is he?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    AndyJS said:

    Punters are probably being a bit too cautious about the odds of a Tory majority. With double digit leads in most polls you'd think at least a small majority would be likely.

    Equally I think I am right in saying the last time an incumbent party of government increased the number of seats it held after an election where it went backwards was 1865.

    It is very hard for a party to regain momentum without time in opposition.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    IanB2 said:

    So here I find myself, unwilling to support a leader who is a stranger to honesty or principle and who surfs a foolish populist wave for the sake of ambition alone, leading a governing party whose centre of gravity has shifted decisively away from the broadly centrist political force Conservatism once was. Johnson has come; Johnson will finally go; but now most likely ambushed from the right. We all have our breaking point, but for me the time has arrived to give up hoping for a return to Tory sanity.
    I am not sure what that passage is meant to highlight. Parris is the one who has lost his sanity. Naturally he sees the problem everywhere but within.
    Parris lost it years ago. He is infamous for throwing his toys out of the pram whenever he doesn't get his way.
    Is he?
    Richard should have said Paris is rattled...
  • nichomar said:

    justin124 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
    London is where the LDs are going to have some spectacular results IMO, in places like Wimbledon, Finchley, etc.
    The only likely LD gain in London is Richmond Park.
    Any evidence for that claim?
    There aren't many targets. If you want a decent longshot, Chelsea & Fulham might be worth a punt. Nicola Horlick (for it is she) stands for the Peril.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 2,586

    tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    "he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace"

    that, sir, is doing a LOT of heavy lifting.



    The ‘heavy lifting’ cliche is another teeth-grindingly awful PBism. Avoid.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,387
    edited November 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    They've probably lost a couple of percent from the 18-19% mark.

    They might go down from there. They might go up. If you look at the last forty odd years of elections, they've tended to rise during campaigns. But in 2017, they fell badly.

    I don't know which one it will be, and I am very suspicious of some posters' certainty in this area.
    I suspect the LDs will fall back for the simple reason that they received a boost in the immediate pre-campaign period. I can think of no precedent for the LDs/Alliance/Liberals managing to hang on to the peak levels of support reached in previous upturns in their electoral fortunes.Back in 1964 the Liberals polled well below post-Orpington poll levels.Even the Liberal surge in February 1974 failed to match what had been implied by polls and by elections in 1972 & 1973.The Alliance result in 1983 - notwithstanding the surge of the final ten days - was pretty disappointing set aside the high expectations generated by the Warrington and Crosby by elections. Ditto - 1987 in relation to the Greenwich by election. In this Parliament, the LDs have rarely exceeded 20%, and, in my view, they will do well to exceed 15%. I am expecting circa 12%.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582

    So after OGH's column on leadership satisfaction yesterday I went looking for he numbers in the lead up to the 2017 election.

    I found them on the Ipsos Mori page here:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present

    It is interesting to compare Corbyn's ratings at the start of the election campaign in 2017 with those today.

    In the April poll (21st - 25th April) which was about 6 weeks before the election Corbyn was

    27% Satisfied, 62% dissatisfied so -35% overall

    This time around at the same point in the cycle Corbyn is

    15% Satisfied, 75% dissatisfied so -60% overall

    By a week before the election in 2017 Corbyn had improved his ratings to

    39% Satisfied, 50% dissatisfied so -11% overall

    An improvement of 24% on the start of the campaign.

    What do people think of him doing a similar job this time? That would still leave him on -36% satisfaction.

    So that looks worse for Jezza now than at the start of the 2017 campaign but I suspect Boris is in a considerably worse position than May was at the start of the 2017 campaign too.

    The YouGov 'Best Prime Minister' series shows Johnson 43%, Corbyn 20%, so Boris 23% ahead...

    Whereas in April 2017 it had May 54%, Corbyn 14%, so May 36% ahead.

    Make of that what you will.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655

    IanB2 said:

    So here I find myself, unwilling to support a leader who is a stranger to honesty or principle and who surfs a foolish populist wave for the sake of ambition alone, leading a governing party whose centre of gravity has shifted decisively away from the broadly centrist political force Conservatism once was. Johnson has come; Johnson will finally go; but now most likely ambushed from the right. We all have our breaking point, but for me the time has arrived to give up hoping for a return to Tory sanity.
    I am not sure what that passage is meant to highlight. Parris is the one who has lost his sanity. Naturally he sees the problem everywhere but within.
    Parris lost it years ago. He is infamous for throwing his toys out of the pram whenever he doesn't get his way.
    What happens when a decision has apparently gone his way, and someone suggests having another think about it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    AndyJS said:

    Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.
    I am hoping @SouthamObserver is preparing to give us some insight into Warwick and Leamington. If the Tories can’t retake that, their chances of a majority are slim.

    Would be useful to have a report from Wakefield too, which was one of the signs things were going wrong for May, although I appreciate @david_herdson is somewhat less involved than in previous years.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542
    AndyJS said:

    Punters are probably being a bit too cautious about the odds of a Tory majority. With double digit leads in most polls you'd think at least a small majority would be likely.

    I think people are scarred by 2017. I know I still rue my Tory Majoriry @1.27 bet.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    Whereas in April 2017 it had May 54%, Corbyn 14%, so May 36% ahead.

    Make of that what you will.

    Either my maths is even worse than I thought, or one of those numbers is wrong.
  • AndyJS said:

    Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.
    AndyJS said:

    Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    You're forgetting about the Midlands where voters aren't as tribal as in the North.
    Where are the rich pickings in the Midlands?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 7,655
    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Punters are probably being a bit too cautious about the odds of a Tory majority. With double digit leads in most polls you'd think at least a small majority would be likely.

    I think people are scarred by 2017. I know I still rue my Tory Majoriry @1.27 bet.
    U n me both bruvva. Free money that was. And God bless the Scottish tories for digging me almost all the way out of the hole.
  • tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Can you please stop this nonsense about Corbyn being an anti semite- he's been hopeless at dealing with some of the anti zionists headbangers in his party, and he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace- but he is not an anti-semite.....

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    "he's made some dodgy associations in the past in his quest to pursue peace"

    that, sir, is doing a LOT of heavy lifting.



    The ‘heavy lifting’ cliche is another teeth-grindingly awful PBism. Avoid.

    Not as bad as the “comedy” new thread alerts, which are becoming rather tiresome.
  • Ishmael_Z said:

    IanB2 said:

    So here I find myself, unwilling to support a leader who is a stranger to honesty or principle and who surfs a foolish populist wave for the sake of ambition alone, leading a governing party whose centre of gravity has shifted decisively away from the broadly centrist political force Conservatism once was. Johnson has come; Johnson will finally go; but now most likely ambushed from the right. We all have our breaking point, but for me the time has arrived to give up hoping for a return to Tory sanity.
    I am not sure what that passage is meant to highlight. Parris is the one who has lost his sanity. Naturally he sees the problem everywhere but within.
    Parris lost it years ago. He is infamous for throwing his toys out of the pram whenever he doesn't get his way.
    What happens when a decision has apparently gone his way, and someone suggests having another think about it?
    I have no idea what he would do under those circumstances. But any reasonable person would consider it bad form at the very least.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Punters are probably being a bit too cautious about the odds of a Tory majority. With double digit leads in most polls you'd think at least a small majority would be likely.

    I think people are scarred by 2017. I know I still rue my Tory Majoriry @1.27 bet.
    It’s ironic to reflect that since the FTPA act which mandated elections had to be every five years, the average length of a Parliament has decreased from just over four years to three years two months.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    IanB2 said:

    So here I find myself, unwilling to support a leader who is a stranger to honesty or principle and who surfs a foolish populist wave for the sake of ambition alone, leading a governing party whose centre of gravity has shifted decisively away from the broadly centrist political force Conservatism once was. Johnson has come; Johnson will finally go; but now most likely ambushed from the right. We all have our breaking point, but for me the time has arrived to give up hoping for a return to Tory sanity.
    I am not sure what that passage is meant to highlight. Parris is the one who has lost his sanity. Naturally he sees the problem everywhere but within.
    Parris lost it years ago. He is infamous for throwing his toys out of the pram whenever he doesn't get his way.
    Is he?
    Parris always strikes me as reasonable. Even when he caused a by-election in 1986, he deliberately told a local newspaper either the Labour Party or the Liberal Party was the main threat, when in fact it was the opposite party. The Tory candidate went on to win by 100 votes or so, he was an ex-miner who went on to become a Cabinet Minister! I forget his name but he is a recent Cabinet minister at that (last ten years)!

    I read a book about Parris about his life called "Chance Witness", which I found interesting. I still have the book somewhere? I also read somewhere he has done LSD, to see what it was like! So he should be at home with the Lib Dems! :smiley: Parris's lead makes me more likely to vote LD than Labour, although I am still torn on which is best to maximise Remain/Revoke. Do I help a Pro-EU Labour MP and forget about Corbyn or do I vote LD to maximise the Revoke mandate? I could just use one of those vote match websites and vote Labour for someone here and they vote LD in a key marginal! :wink:
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:
    Makes Boris look a lot like Patrick Marber.
    THE Patrick Marber? The writer of 'Closer'? The big fat Tory in the photo couldn't be less like the talented and interesting Patrick Marber!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061
    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?

    They seem (on almost no evidence at all, admittedly) to be slipping in a big way. They should be sweeping up simply all Labour remainers, but they aren't doing that. Swinson isn't great, but she isn't so bad that they wouldn't expect to be riding high. Perhaps she's seen as not sufficiently anti-Boris?

    The electoral pact thing can't be helping.

    The LDs should be the party of the establishment pre-actual-Brexit, but they're not even close now. They're in a poor state post-actual-Brexit should that happen.

    They've probably lost a couple of percent from the 18-19% mark.

    They might go down from there. They might go up. If you look at the last forty odd years of elections, they've tended to rise during campaigns. But in 2017, they fell badly.

    I don't know which one it will be, and I am very suspicious of some posters' certainty in this area.
    I suspect the LDs will fall back for the simple reason that they received a boost in the immediate pre-campaign period. I can think of no precedent for the LDs/Alliance/Liberals managing to hang on to the peak levels of support reached in previous upturns in their electoral fortunes.Back in 1964 the Liberals polled well below post-Orpington poll levels.Even the Liberal surge in February 1974 failed to match what had been implied by polls and by elections in 1972 & 1973.The Alliance result in 1983 - notwithstanding the surge of the final ten days - was pretty disappointing set aside the high expectations generated by the Warrington and Crosby by elections. Ditto - 1987 in relation to the Greenwich by election. In this Parliament, the LDs have rarely exceeded 20%, and, in my view, they will do well to exceed 15%. I am expecting circa 12%.

    Well the voters that move from lib dem to labour won’t be represented by those on here. Most lib dems are sick of labour telling us that we have to be their little helpers all the time. Labour have nothing to offer us and who knows they may get a shock this time.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,446
    Not too much movement on the spreads. Midpoints SI/SE are Con 320/321, Lab 211/212, Lib 47.5/47.5.

    BXP at 4 (SI only), but obviously very asymmetrical distribution there. Maybe something like 40% chance of 0 seats, but perhaps 10% they get into double digits.
  • “Nigel Farage said Boris' deal doesn't take us out of the European Union. That's not true. It does take us out of the European Union, that's why I and my so-called fellow spartans voted for it” Mark Francois
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    IanB2 said:

    So here I find myself, unwilling to support a leader who is a stranger to honesty or principle and who surfs a foolish populist wave for the sake of ambition alone, leading a governing party whose centre of gravity has shifted decisively away from the broadly centrist political force Conservatism once was. Johnson has come; Johnson will finally go; but now most likely ambushed from the right. We all have our breaking point, but for me the time has arrived to give up hoping for a return to Tory sanity.
    I am not sure what that passage is meant to highlight. Parris is the one who has lost his sanity. Naturally he sees the problem everywhere but within.
    Parris lost it years ago. He is infamous for throwing his toys out of the pram whenever he doesn't get his way.
    Is he?
    Parris always strikes me as reasonable. Even when he caused a by-election in 1986, he deliberately told a local newspaper either the Labour Party or the Liberal Party was the main threat, when in fact it was the opposite party. The Tory candidate went on to win by 100 votes or so, he was an ex-miner who went on to become a Cabinet Minister! I forget his name but he is a recent Cabinet minister at that (last ten years)!
    Sir Patrick McLoughlin, who has just announced his retirement from politics.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582

    stodge said:

    Boris isn’t going to do it, is he?

    He’ll lose a chunk of seats in the South and London to the LDs and these “gains” from Labour in the North will fail to materialise.

    I think 250-299 seats at 9/2 for the Tories is a good bet with Ladbrokes.

    It's a bit early to be having "doubts", my friend. The Panelbase poll was fine and I suspect the polls tomorrow night will show very healthy Conservative leads.

    I do agree once the campaign really gets going it will get more interesting with Johnson having to defend some of the manifesto ideas but unless BP can get some real traction into the LEAVE vote I suspect Johnson will romp home.
    No-one has tuned into this yet.

    In my office, I’ve just heard sighing, “shitshow” and a rapid changing of the subject.

    Another bet I’ve made is to sell turnout at below 60% for 12/1.
    Sorry for being an ignoramus but does 'selling' in this context mean you profit if turnout is below 60%?

    Yes.
    It's got to be worth it at 12/1 I'd thought... A combination of disillusion, dark nights, Christmas parties and potential bad weather could hit turnout hard.

    Turnout below 60% would be a further blow to democracy imo, especially if it led to a thumping majority for any party.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Scott_P said:
    I hope Farage does not rip her skirt off! :sunglasses:
  • So after OGH's column on leadership satisfaction yesterday I went looking for he numbers in the lead up to the 2017 election.

    I found them on the Ipsos Mori page here:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/political-monitor-satisfaction-ratings-1997-present

    It is interesting to compare Corbyn's ratings at the start of the election campaign in 2017 with those today.

    In the April poll (21st - 25th April) which was about 6 weeks before the election Corbyn was

    27% Satisfied, 62% dissatisfied so -35% overall

    This time around at the same point in the cycle Corbyn is

    15% Satisfied, 75% dissatisfied so -60% overall

    By a week before the election in 2017 Corbyn had improved his ratings to

    39% Satisfied, 50% dissatisfied so -11% overall

    An improvement of 24% on the start of the campaign.

    What do people think of him doing a similar job this time? That would still leave him on -36% satisfaction.

    So that looks worse for Jezza now than at the start of the 2017 campaign but I suspect Boris is in a considerably worse position than May was at the start of the 2017 campaign too.

    The YouGov 'Best Prime Minister' series shows Johnson 43%, Corbyn 20%, so Boris 23% ahead...

    Whereas in April 2017 it had May 54%, Corbyn 14%, so May 36% ahead.

    Make of that what you will.
    May's satisfaction numbers took a real tumble over the same period.

    In April at the start of the campaign she was +19 and by the end she was down to -7.

    Johnson is only starting on +2 so if he runs as bad a campaign as May did he could be around -24 by election day. The gap between Johnson and Corbyn would be wider than that between May and Corbyn but perhaps one could claim of a similar magnitude?

    As someone who wants Johnson to get a majority I just have to hope he runs a better campaign than May did (probable) and Corbyn does not perform as well this time as he did in 2017 (uncertain)
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 9,387

    AndyJS said:

    Another defection designed to repel Labour supporters thinking of voting for the LDs.

    By and large the LDs don't need Labour votes...
    I think people forget ( I certainly did) where the LD battlegrounds are. The LD need to pick up disgruntled, Pro-business moderate Tories. London Commuter belt and some support in the SW. That's enough to deny the Tories a Majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

    This is going to be a local/Regional campaign - National Swings won't mean a thing.

    Taking the assumption that the Tories lose most of their seats in Scotland and 30-40 to the LDs in Commuter belt plus SW. They will need to pick up at least 50 Northern Labour seats just to stand still. I can't see it at this particular point.
    I see no evidence from the polls or council by elections or even anecdotal that the LDs are going to pick up 30-40 seats in the commuter belt and SW from the Tories.
    London is where the LDs are going to have some spectacular results IMO, in places like Wimbledon, Finchley, etc.
    Yes I think they have a good chance in Finchley because of Luciana and obviously will win Richmond.They should give Labour a tough time in some of the remainy London boroughs. I expect a fair view near misses but not many gains in London.
    Ealing Central and Acton looks a prospect for a spectacular gain from 3rd place, given the Euro election vote. Topping knows this seat and would I think testify to Rupa Huq’s hugely increased majority having been a achieved on the backs of remainer Tories. They are likely to switch to LD this time round.
    Very unlikely . Such voters will not wish to risk handing the seat back to the Tories. Ditto in Kensington. - and the idea that the LDs are in serious contention in Putney and Battersea is 'for the birds'.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    ydoethur said:

    Whereas in April 2017 it had May 54%, Corbyn 14%, so May 36% ahead.

    Make of that what you will.

    Either my maths is even worse than I thought, or one of those numbers is wrong.

    Sorry yes, typo on my part... should have been:

    May 50%, Corbyn 14%, so May 36% ahead.

    The data can be found here:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/political-trackers/survey-results

  • “Nigel Farage said Boris' deal doesn't take us out of the European Union. That's not true. It does take us out of the European Union, that's why I and my so-called fellow spartans voted for it” Mark Francois

    Are they still known as the Spartans, or is it now the Snowflakes?
This discussion has been closed.