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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Matthew Goodwin

    This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...

    "I will definitely vote for my party"
    Conservatives 71%
    Labour 60%
    #Brexit Party 55%
    Lib Dems 31% <------

    "I may change my mind"
    Conservative 7%
    Labour 16%
    Brexit Party 19%
    Lib Dem 29% <--------

    #GE2019
    YouGov data</p>

    Lib Dems less tribal?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Isn't that a bit 'woke'?

    Sorry to ask, but trying to get my head around this new word.
    Not woke - more sauce for the gander. Those sorts of phrases applied in a racial or religious context the poster would never use. The elderly apear to be that last group who are allowed to be stereotyped.
    In what way did I disparage the elderly? Simply pointing out a demographic fact is not ageist, any more than pointing out that university towns have a younger population. Both have electoral effects
    The phrases 'costa geriatrica' and 'oldies ' linked to the crap about some of us not wating to 'fry the planet' were derogatory and sereotyping.


    Try reading this from the Guardian : https://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/feb/04/old-ditch-ageist-stereotypes

  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    rcs1000 said:

    justin124 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    Are the Lib Dems ready to be the party of the establishment?



    They've probably lost a couple of percent from the 18-19% mark.

    They might go down from there. They might go up. If you look at the last forty odd years of elections, they've tended to rise during campaigns. But in 2017, they fell badly.

    I don't know which one it will be, and I am very suspicious of some posters' certainty in this area.
    I suspect the LDs will fall back for the simple reason that they received a boost in the immediate pre-campaign period. I can think of no precedent for the LDs/Alliance/Liberals managing to hang on to the peak levels of support reached in previous upturns in their electoral fortunes.Back in 1964 the Liberals polled well below post-Orpington poll levels.Even the Liberal surge in February 1974 failed to match what had been implied by polls and by elections in 1972 & 1973.The Alliance result in 1983 - notwithstanding the surge of the final ten days - was pretty disappointing set aside the high expectations generated by the Warrington and Crosby by elections. Ditto - 1987 in relation to the Greenwich by election. In this Parliament, the LDs have rarely exceeded 20%, and, in my view, they will do well to exceed 15%. I am expecting circa 12%.
    You're being a bit selective. I've posted the numbers on here before, but the mean change in the 1979 to now period in LibDem/Alliance/Liberal support from the poll immediately preceding the election being called is +4%.

    Mostly, they benefit from the increased attention in the election campaign.

    That doesn't mean it'll happen again, and I agree that they're starting from a higher base (relative to their average support through the parliament), but I think a six point drop is as about the same likelihood as a six point increase. Simply, both are possible. And if I had a central case, it would probably the LDs on 16-18%, and getting 20-22 seats. (But that's a very low confidence prediction.)
    I don't disagree with much there - I tend to pitch the likely LD range as 12% - 15%. What distinguishes the most recent LD boost is its having occured quite suddenly - ie from early May - and its proximity to the calling of the election. I doubt that there is much depth to the support - which has always tended to be 'easy come easy go'.Their recent surge has actually given the party quite a bit of coverage, and I will be surprised if campaign coverage results in a further net boost.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1

    I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
    The only person I know who has met her (Duncan Hames) tells me she is extremely nice
    See comes across as a very nice lady to my mind. Her stupid, unfair, nickname on here Tory Swinson is really crap yet bizarrely catchy.

    I actually think her name is Tory Swinson from time to time. Odd.
    It’s a reasonably common abbreviation for Victoria
    Tory Coren-Mitchell?
    I believe it’s usually rendered Tori.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    olm said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    olm said:

    tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    image
    This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.

    Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.

    The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.

    On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.

    However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.

    How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
    What a very curious first post. You must be on some kind of mission.
    I'm not.
    And I hope that my post can stand on its own, the author being irrelevant.

    (FWIW, not that it's relevant to the whether my posts are true or not, I've read this blog for many months. My commenting on this discussion was merely spontaneous as I saw the picture used to reinforce a trope against Corbyn, because I do not appreciate untruths been spun into ammunition, even against those I do not support. I'm neither Jewish nor anti-Jewish, I'm agnostic atheist, I have never voted Labour, LD or Con, and I don't support Corbyn or Johnson or Swinson. Nor am I a capitalist or a socialist.)
    Are we supposed to guess who you are?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    olm said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    olm said:

    tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    image
    This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.

    Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.

    The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.

    On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.

    However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.

    How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
    What a very curious first post. You must be on some kind of mission.
    I'm not.
    And I hope that my post can stand on its own, the author being irrelevant.

    (FWIW, not that it's relevant to the whether my posts are true or not, I've read this blog for many months. My commenting on this discussion was merely spontaneous as I saw the picture used to reinforce a trope against Corbyn, because I do not appreciate untruths been spun into ammunition, even against those I do not support. I'm neither Jewish nor anti-Jewish, I'm agnostic atheist, I have never voted Labour, LD or Con, and I don't support Corbyn or Johnson or Swinson. Nor am I a capitalist or a socialist.)
    Your explanation of the painting is interesting -- where did you find it? It is certainly impossible to figure all that out by just looking.

    Also, why is Aleister Crowley pictured at all, he has hardly anything to do with international capitalism or Freemasonry? Tbh, the painting is so bad I can't work out which one is Crowley.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    edited November 2019
    viewcode said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
    Similar phrases could be applied to religious or racial groups living in parts of the UK and linked to anti-semitism/remain voting , etc. Most muslims vote Labour, etc, etc. If you cannot see my point I cannot help you. As an elderly person I am offended by your use of these terms and will call you out whenever I see you use them.
    Perhaps if you made a list of terms that people can and cannot say, it would help them know what is sayable and unsayable. I'm sure they would treat such a list with the consideration it deserves.
    It would be similar to the unacceptable words and phrases routinely applied to racial and religious groups. Of course I presume you think they should return to regular use on here and elsewhere judging by your last sentence.
  • justin124 said:

    In Lincolnshire I can see a full sweep is likely for the Tories.

    Nick Boles is standing down in Grantham and had a 20,000 majority. That will revert to blue.

    The only other non-Tory seat in the County is Lincoln itself where Karen Lee has a 1500 vote majority. But the city was strongly Leave along with the rest of the County and Lee has been strongly pro-Remain.

    The smallest Tory majority in the County is 16,500 and that is Boston and Skegness which had the highest Leave party supporting vote in the 2019 Euros.

    The only question might be whether Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe in Humberside (Greater Lincolnshire :) ) go blue. Again both were strongly Leave and have sitting Labour MPs with relatively small majorities.

    The fact that they were Leave voting areas failed to stop Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe electing Labour MPs in 2017 - so why should it matter more now?
    In all three cases the Labour MPs said they would respect the result of the referendum and support Brexit. Lee has failed to do so at any point, voting against every iteration. Onn and Dakin have similar records although Onn has abstained a couple of times.

    They can certainly no longer claim to be supporting Brexit.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Scott_P said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Beto out the race !

    Beto more than he could chew.
    https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/1190380529989963778
    And he's now unelectable in Texas, after promising to take away people's guns.
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    justin124 said:

    Sean_F said:

    justin124 said:

    In Lincolnshire I can see a full sweep is likely for the Tories.

    Nick Boles is standing down in Grantham and had a 20,000 majority. That will revert to blue.

    The only other non-Tory seat in the County is Lincoln itself where Karen Lee has a 1500 vote majority. But the city was strongly Leave along with the rest of the County and Lee has been strongly pro-Remain.

    The smallest Tory majority in the County is 16,500 and that is Boston and Skegness which had the highest Leave party supporting vote in the 2019 Euros.

    The only question might be whether Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe in Humberside (Greater Lincolnshire :) ) go blue. Again both were strongly Leave and have sitting Labour MPs with relatively small majorities.

    The fact that they were Leave voting areas failed to stop Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe electing Labour MPs in 2017 - so why should it matter more now?
    If the Conservatives are, in fact, 12% ahead of Labour now, compared to 2.5% in 2017, those are the sort of seats where the Conservative lead will show up.
    A lead of that size would lead to significant Labour losses - though in Lincoln Labour might be helped by first term incumbency.
    Not sure first term incumbency will be much of a factor in this election, it's so polarised nationally that I doubt many people care if their MP is opening fetes or doing traffic surveys
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Matthew Goodwin

    This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...

    "I will definitely vote for my party"
    Conservatives 71%
    Labour 60%
    #Brexit Party 55%
    Lib Dems 31% <------

    "I may change my mind"
    Conservative 7%
    Labour 16%
    Brexit Party 19%
    Lib Dem 29% <--------

    #GE2019
    YouGov data</p>

    It’s not my party. But I shall be voting for them.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
    "Geriatric" does not mean "old," and using it as if it did looks pretty offensive to me.
  • Breaking

    Government ban fracking
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1

    I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
    The only person I know who has met her (Duncan Hames) tells me she is extremely nice
    See comes across as a very nice lady to my mind. Her stupid, unfair, nickname on here Tory Swinson is really crap yet bizarrely catchy.

    I actually think her name is Tory Swinson from time to time. Odd.
    It’s a reasonably common abbreviation for Victoria
    Exactly
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Beto out the race !

    Beto more than he could chew.
    It's going to be Warren.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    edited November 2019
    Former Labour Westminster candidate and outspoken Nottingham fuckwit.

    Oh and he is a lawyer which makes it even worse.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Breaking

    Government ban fracking

    Really? Probably piss of BXP types, while not persuading the eco-socialists to think they are awesome.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    olm said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    olm said:

    tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    image
    This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.

    Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.

    The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.

    On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.

    However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.

    How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
    What a very curious first post. You must be on some kind of mission.
    I'm not.
    And I hope that my post can stand on its own, the author being irrelevant.

    (FWIW, not that it's relevant to the whether my posts are true or not, I've read this blog for many months. My commenting on this discussion was merely spontaneous as I saw the picture used to reinforce a trope against Corbyn, because I do not appreciate untruths been spun into ammunition, even against those I do not support. I'm neither Jewish nor anti-Jewish, I'm agnostic atheist, I have never voted Labour, LD or Con, and I don't support Corbyn or Johnson or Swinson. Nor am I a capitalist or a socialist.)
    Are we supposed to guess who you are?
    Yet another male model?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Jonathan said:

    Matthew Goodwin

    This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...

    "I will definitely vote for my party"
    Conservatives 71%
    Labour 60%
    #Brexit Party 55%
    Lib Dems 31% <------

    "I may change my mind"
    Conservative 7%
    Labour 16%
    Brexit Party 19%
    Lib Dem 29% <--------

    #GE2019
    YouGov data</p>

    Lib Dems less tribal?
    LibDems less commited?
  • kle4 said:

    Breaking

    Government ban fracking

    Really? Probably piss of BXP types, while not persuading the eco-socialists to think they are awesome.
    Yes - headlines in the papers
  • Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1

    I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
    The only person I know who has met her (Duncan Hames) tells me she is extremely nice
    I chatted with her after the hustings. She is quite a normal person. That in itself is quite a contrast with the other party leaders in England.
    I’m also a little puzzled by the apparent deep aversion to her.
    Seems fairly inoffensive to me.

    And not obviously stupid or pathological.
    I must admit although I disagree with her on some fundamental points, I have seen nothing at all to make me think she deserves some of the comments she has received on here recently. Coming from some of the less outspoken posters they did take me by surprise.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    olm said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    olm said:

    tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    image
    This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.

    Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.

    The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.

    On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.

    However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.

    How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
    What a very curious first post. You must be on some kind of mission.
    I'm not.
    And I hope that my post can stand on its own, the author being irrelevant.

    (FWIW, not that it's relevant to the whether my posts are true or not, I've read this blog for many months. My commenting on this discussion was merely spontaneous as I saw the picture used to reinforce a trope against Corbyn, because I do not appreciate untruths been spun into ammunition, even against those I do not support. I'm neither Jewish nor anti-Jewish, I'm agnostic atheist, I have never voted Labour, LD or Con, and I don't support Corbyn or Johnson or Swinson. Nor am I a capitalist or a socialist.)
    Welcome to PB!

    I thought your comments on the painting were very fair.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    kle4 said:

    olm said:

    tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    image
    This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.

    Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.

    The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.

    On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.

    However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.

    How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
    The fact Corbyn's spokesperson defended him by saying he had not looked at it properly, thereby implicitly admitting it was obviously anti-semitic at proper glance.

    If they'd felt they could defend him by saying it was not obviously so, they would have done so, because no one uses 'I was stupid and didn't look properly' as a defence unless they have no other choice.

    It's hilarious people, even some quite sensible people, keep trying to defend Corbyn on that one with a defence he himself did not use, and which his actual defence undermines the attempt to use it.
    It's hilarious that anyone would dismiss that information on the ground that Corbyn's spokesman didn't use it. Maybe Corbyn's spokesman just didn't know it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Jonathan said:

    Matthew Goodwin

    This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...

    "I will definitely vote for my party"
    Conservatives 71%
    Labour 60%
    #Brexit Party 55%
    Lib Dems 31% <------

    "I may change my mind"
    Conservative 7%
    Labour 16%
    Brexit Party 19%
    Lib Dem 29% <--------

    #GE2019
    YouGov data</p>

    Lib Dems less tribal?

    LibDems always score lowest in certainty. The other side of the coin is that they are usually highest of the parties that other voters might switch toward.
  • olmolm Posts: 125

    olm said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    olm said:

    tyson said:

    @Big G and Philip Thomson,

    Corbyn is really quite principled- it is part of his problem in my opinion- but throwing the anti-semite mud at him is quite frankly wrong

    image
    This mural is not obviously anti-semitic.

    Someone seeing it on the street or even more so on a Facebook feed (like Corbyn for example) could not reasonably consider it to be so, prima facie.

    The mural depicts 6 people, 5 of the richest capitalists in the world at one time, only 2 of whom happen to be Jewish: Rothschild, Rockefeller, Morgan, Carnegie, Warburg, as well as Aleister Crowley; plus a symbol of Free Masonry, whilst the rich eat at a table on the backs of the world's poor.

    On deep analysis, after reading context from the artist - published a long time after Corbyn commented - the artist may well have been buying into a conspiracy theory espoused by David Icke, and from that one can question (but not definitely say) the artist may or may not be anti-semitic.

    However, on the face of it a reasonable person would not think of it as antisemitic. Only anti-capitalist, and anti-freemason.

    How do you equate this mural with being overtly anti-semitic to the point that Corbyn could conceivably think so at the time he commented?
    What a very curious first post. You must be on some kind of mission.
    I'm not.
    And I hope that my post can stand on its own, the author being irrelevant.

    (FWIW, not that it's relevant to the whether my posts are true or not, I've read this blog for many months. My commenting on this discussion was merely spontaneous as I saw the picture used to reinforce a trope against Corbyn, because I do not appreciate untruths been spun into ammunition, even against those I do not support. I'm neither Jewish nor anti-Jewish, I'm agnostic atheist, I have never voted Labour, LD or Con, and I don't support Corbyn or Johnson or Swinson. Nor am I a capitalist or a socialist.)
    Are we supposed to guess who you are?
    Haha, well you can try!
    I only put that since it seemed I was being challenged as to 'my agenda' when Ishmae_Z suggested I must be on some kind of mission ;)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited November 2019

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1

    I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
    The only person I know who has met her (Duncan Hames) tells me she is extremely nice
    I chatted with her after the hustings. She is quite a normal person. That in itself is quite a contrast with the other party leaders in England.
    I’m also a little puzzled by the apparent deep aversion to her.
    Seems fairly inoffensive to me.

    And not obviously stupid or pathological.
    I must admit although I disagree with her on some fundamental points, I have seen nothing at all to make me think she deserves some of the comments she has received on here recently. Coming from some of the less outspoken posters they did take me by surprise.
    A little exemplar of how female politicians get given a particularly hard time.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited November 2019
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1

    I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
    The only person I know who has met her (Duncan Hames) tells me she is extremely nice
    See comes across as a very nice lady to my mind. Her stupid, unfair, nickname on here Tory Swinson is really crap yet bizarrely catchy.

    I actually think her name is Tory Swinson from time to time. Odd.
    It’s a reasonably common abbreviation for Victoria
    It might be in your circle Charles, but all the Victorias I know shorten to Vicky or keep to Victoria.

    I suspect Tory / Tori is mainly a landed gentry thing.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    I've just seen this side by side of the Leave and Remain marches in london. A great bit of footage. The Lib Dems shouuld try to get the 96 sheet site at Cambridge Circus and run it on a loup

    https://twitter.com/tom_newton1234/status/1161169515914452992

    (Hope it works)
  • I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Matthew Goodwin

    This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...

    "I will definitely vote for my party"
    Conservatives 71%
    Labour 60%
    #Brexit Party 55%
    Lib Dems 31% <------

    "I may change my mind"
    Conservative 7%
    Labour 16%
    Brexit Party 19%
    Lib Dem 29% <--------

    #GE2019
    YouGov data</p>

    Lib Dems less tribal?

    LibDems always score lowest in certainty. The other side of the coin is that they are usually highest of the parties that other voters might switch toward.
    That is where this graph matters.

    https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1189930603136847872?s=19
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    viewcode said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
    Similar phrases could be applied to religious or racial groups living in parts of the UK and linked to anti-semitism/remain voting , etc. Most muslims vote Labour, etc, etc. If you cannot see my point I cannot help you. As an elderly person I am offended by your use of these terms and will call you out whenever I see you use them.
    Perhaps if you made a list of terms that people can and cannot say, it would help them know what is sayable and unsayable. I'm sure they would treat such a list with the consideration it deserves.
    Using an ounce of common sense, I would have thought you might not need a list. I've not seen you called out for what you present yourself as here, so perhaps you just forgot yourself.
    If you believe in unsayable terms, then there must exist in your head a list of unsayable terms (or a list of sayable terms), or at least a method of diagnosing them.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Former Labour Westminster candidate and outspoken Nottingham fuckwit.

    Oh and he is a lawyer which makes it even worse.
    If you read the comments under the ITV post, he does seem to be in tune with around 99.7% of the public though...
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    Former Labour Westminster candidate and outspoken Nottingham fuckwit.

    Oh and he is a lawyer which makes it even worse.
    All that head banging in the front row. Sad really, really.
  • Breaking

    Government ban fracking

    How well I remember the halcyon days when PB Tories were salivating at the prospect of a UK fracking boom. Of course that was when they were mostly Cameroonian pom pom girls.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Rather pathetic really. It reminds me of the 2005 election here in Norwich North. I had not been a Labour member since 1996 and thoroughly detested Blair.I did,however, respect my local MP - Ian Gibson - who was far from being a Blairite , and had decided to cast my vote for him on a personal basis.Then the Labour Election Address arrived covering both Norwich constituencies. It showed a photograph of Ian Gibson and Charles Clarke both wearing a Norwich Canaries football jersey. I was so sickened by that , that I reverted to my original intention and voted LibDem - as I had also done in 2001.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1

    I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
    The only person I know who has met her (Duncan Hames) tells me she is extremely nice
    See comes across as a very nice lady to my mind. Her stupid, unfair, nickname on here Tory Swinson is really crap yet bizarrely catchy.

    I actually think her name is Tory Swinson from time to time. Odd.
    It’s a reasonably common abbreviation for Victoria
    It might be in your circle Charles, but all the Victorias I know shorten to Vicky or keep to Victoria.

    I suspect Tory / Tori is mainly a landed gentry thing.
    Tori is more of a US thing.
  • Nigelb said:

    Former Labour Westminster candidate and outspoken Nottingham fuckwit.

    Oh and he is a lawyer which makes it even worse.
    If you read the comments under the ITV post, he does seem to be in tune with around 99.7% of the public though...
    Apologies. It was more personal knowledge of him that set me off. A thoroughly obnoxious individual irrespective of his politics or even his profession.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    In Lincolnshire I can see a full sweep is likely for the Tories.

    Nick Boles is standing down in Grantham and had a 20,000 majority. That will revert to blue.

    The only other non-Tory seat in the County is Lincoln itself where Karen Lee has a 1500 vote majority. But the city was strongly Leave along with the rest of the County and Lee has been strongly pro-Remain.

    The smallest Tory majority in the County is 16,500 and that is Boston and Skegness which had the highest Leave party supporting vote in the 2019 Euros.

    The only question might be whether Great Grimsby and Scunthorpe in Humberside (Greater Lincolnshire :) ) go blue. Again both were strongly Leave and have sitting Labour MPs with relatively small majorities.

    The fact that they were Leave voting areas failed to stop Lincoln, Grimsby and Scunthorpe electing Labour MPs in 2017 - so why should it matter more now?
    In all three cases the Labour MPs said they would respect the result of the referendum and support Brexit. Lee has failed to do so at any point, voting against every iteration. Onn and Dakin have similar records although Onn has abstained a couple of times.

    They can certainly no longer claim to be supporting Brexit.
    Onn voted for the Second Reading, I believe.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Nigelb said:

    Former Labour Westminster candidate and outspoken Nottingham fuckwit.

    Oh and he is a lawyer which makes it even worse.
    If you read the comments under the ITV post, he does seem to be in tune with around 99.7% of the public though...
    Apologies. It was more personal knowledge of him that set me off. A thoroughly obnoxious individual irrespective of his politics or even his profession.
    A character not to my taste, either. Though I believe he has his share of demons.
  • I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1

    I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
    The only person I know who has met her (Duncan Hames) tells me she is extremely nice
    Entirely believable...and sadly irrelevant. I was referring to how she is perceived by the public (although I acknowledge that wasn't clear, apols)
    Duncan liked her enough to marry her 😊
    "If all the people who lived together were in love, the Earth would shine like the sun..." (Les Enfants du Paradis, 1945)
  • I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Matthew Goodwin

    This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...

    "I will definitely vote for my party"
    Conservatives 71%
    Labour 60%
    #Brexit Party 55%
    Lib Dems 31% <------

    "I may change my mind"
    Conservative 7%
    Labour 16%
    Brexit Party 19%
    Lib Dem 29% <--------

    #GE2019
    YouGov data</p>

    Lib Dems less tribal?

    LibDems always score lowest in certainty. The other side of the coin is that they are usually highest of the parties that other voters might switch toward.
    That is where this graph matters.

    https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1189930603136847872?s=19
    How often are you going to post this?
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
    Similar phrases could be applied to religious or racial groups living in parts of the UK and linked to anti-semitism/remain voting , etc. Most muslims vote Labour, etc, etc. If you cannot see my point I cannot help you. As an elderly person I am offended by your use of these terms and will call you out whenever I see you use them.
    Perhaps if you made a list of terms that people can and cannot say, it would help them know what is sayable and unsayable. I'm sure they would treat such a list with the consideration it deserves.
    Using an ounce of common sense, I would have thought you might not need a list. I've not seen you called out for what you present yourself as here, so perhaps you just forgot yourself.
    If you believe in unsayable terms, then there must exist in your head a list of unsayable terms (or a list of sayable terms), or at least a method of diagnosing them.
    So you didn't forget yourself, you are what you appear to be.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
    I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.

    It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited November 2019

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Nigelb said:

    Former Labour Westminster candidate and outspoken Nottingham fuckwit.

    Oh and he is a lawyer which makes it even worse.
    If you read the comments under the ITV post, he does seem to be in tune with around 99.7% of the public though...
    I haven't seen it. Did they say what the sample size was?
  • Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Beto out the race !

    Beto more than he could chew.
    It's going to be Warren.
    Trump second term then.

    We are all so f*cked.
  • Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
    I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.

    It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
    But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of society
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    Cicero said:

    When people keep saying that this is the most uncertain election they can remember, perhaps we should believe them. Corbyn and Johnson are both loathed. The Lib Dems could get 20 seats or 120. The SNP 25 or 50.

    But one thing we can guarantee is that Farage will get none. Yet TBP Ltd gets 7-10% then they are the referendum party of 2019, so just maybe we could see BoJo, Baker and Rees Mogg lose, and lets face it those particular Portillo moments would be especially satisfying...

    bollox, you interested in betting on SNP getting 25
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Matthew Goodwin

    This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...

    "I will definitely vote for my party"
    Conservatives 71%
    Labour 60%
    #Brexit Party 55%
    Lib Dems 31% <------

    "I may change my mind"
    Conservative 7%
    Labour 16%
    Brexit Party 19%
    Lib Dem 29% <--------

    #GE2019
    YouGov data</p>

    Lib Dems less tribal?

    LibDems always score lowest in certainty. The other side of the coin is that they are usually highest of the parties that other voters might switch toward.
    That is where this graph matters.

    https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1189930603136847872?s=19
    How often are you going to post this?
    Pointing out how willing supporters of one party are willing to vote for another is highly relevant on a website about political betting, particularly at election time.
  • I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
    I would benefit personally from this but I don't believe it is a clever idea either in terms of policy or electioneering.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    felix said:

    viewcode said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move, as someone who knows the IOW well there are small pockets of Green voters but ultimately this is as safe a Tory seat as you can get and I would have expected the yellows to comfortably outlook the greens
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the strongest predictor of Leave and Tory voting, and the Isle of Wight is a popular retirement spot for those who cannot stomach Spain. Costa Geriatrica is quite an accurate description of much of the English coast, and parts of the Wight inhabited by retired overners in particular.
    Similar phrases could be applied to religious or racial groups living in parts of the UK and linked to anti-semitism/remain voting , etc. Most muslims vote Labour, etc, etc. If you cannot see my point I cannot help you. As an elderly person I am offended by your use of these terms and will call you out whenever I see you use them.
    Perhaps if you made a list of terms that people can and cannot say, it would help them know what is sayable and unsayable. I'm sure they would treat such a list with the consideration it deserves.
    It would be similar to the unacceptable words and phrases routinely applied to racial and religious groups. Of course I presume you think they should return to regular use on here and elsewhere judging by your last sentence.
    Such a presumption would be without foundation, as I didn't make any reference to what I may or may not consider unsayable, or even if I thought such a concept existed. I wasn't competing with the OP to be the arbitrator of speech (is there a hat?)

    What I was pointing out that if the OP thought some terms were offensive, then he must have some kind of list or diagnostic method to distinguish between the sayable and unsayable.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
    I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.

    It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
    But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of society
    What did I say that was disrespectful?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,574

    Nigelb said:

    Former Labour Westminster candidate and outspoken Nottingham fuckwit.

    Oh and he is a lawyer which makes it even worse.
    If you read the comments under the ITV post, he does seem to be in tune with around 99.7% of the public though...
    I haven't seen it. Did they say what the sample size was?
    Just click on the link.

    The only reason I thought it at all notable was the virtual unanimity. Most unusual on any sports thread about almost anything.
  • I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
    They are mostly the middle class - they are not the rich
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Breaking

    Government ban fracking

    Very very depressing news. Back to the dark ages.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
    I would benefit personally from this but I don't believe it is a clever idea either in terms of policy or electioneering.
    Me too on both counts.

    To be fair these were the tax cuts Boris was promising as part of his Tory leadership election campaign 4 months ago, so he's probably forgotten that promise now and moved on to some other promise he won't keep.
  • I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    "The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances."

    The Conservative party no longer exists. It died this summer. Whatever the crazed english nationalist spendthrift replacement is called it aint conserving anything.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Breaking

    Government ban fracking

    following SNP as usual
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
    I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.

    It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
    I agree your last para. I do not agree your first. Where I come from (Tottenham) calling someone geriatric no matter the accuracy as you would have it, would provoke a fucking angry response.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,722

    Breaking

    Government ban fracking

    How well I remember the halcyon days when PB Tories were salivating at the prospect of a UK fracking boom. Of course that was when they were mostly Cameroonian pom pom girls.
    I'm sure it was all just envy of Scotland's oil ;)
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
    I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.

    It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
    But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of society
    What did I say that was disrespectful?
    Sometimes your reference to the elderly do make me uneasy, especially as you are a doctor
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
    They are mostly the middle class - they are not the rich
    £50,000 is roughly twice median earnings. It is reasonable to describe those people (including myself) as rich.

    Obviously it is those on £80,000 or more who get the maximum benefit of this cut, and they are on 3 or more times Median earnings.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    Good news for me but not sure I really need it as much as those at bottom of the pile. Far better to raise allowances to a much higher level and help more people and the country. Far better no tax on first 20K
  • malcolmg said:

    Breaking

    Government ban fracking

    following SNP as usual
    Indeed Malc and I am pleased to see their move towards renewables etc
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
    I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.

    It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
    But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of society
    What did I say that was disrespectful?
    Sometimes your reference to the elderly do make me uneasy, especially as you are a doctor
    Who knows, Foxy might be a big fan of Logan's Run...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
    I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.

    It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
    But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of society
    What did I say that was disrespectful?
    Sometimes your reference to the elderly do make me uneasy, especially as you are a doctor
    Which references, I have no idea what you mean.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
    Just out of interest, where does rich start for you?
  • Soak the rich, that’s what I say. So long as we define “rich” as those earning more than me.
  • malcolmg said:

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    Good news for me but not sure I really need it as much as those at bottom of the pile. Far better to raise allowances to a much higher level and help more people and the country. Far better no tax on first 20K
    Not sure if it just a rumour. Let us see the detail
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
    I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.

    It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
    But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of society
    What did I say that was disrespectful?
    Sometimes your reference to the elderly do make me uneasy, especially as you are a doctor
    Who knows, Foxy might be a big fan of Logan's Run...
    I used to approve of that film. Then I passed 30.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Matthew Goodwin

    This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...

    "I will definitely vote for my party"
    Conservatives 71%
    Labour 60%
    #Brexit Party 55%
    Lib Dems 31% <------

    "I may change my mind"
    Conservative 7%
    Labour 16%
    Brexit Party 19%
    Lib Dem 29% <--------

    #GE2019
    YouGov data</p>

    Lib Dems less tribal?

    LibDems always score lowest in certainty. The other side of the coin is that they are usually highest of the parties that other voters might switch toward.
    That is where this graph matters.

    https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1189930603136847872?s=19
    How often are you going to post this?
    Pointing out how willing supporters of one party are willing to vote for another is highly relevant on a website about political betting, particularly at election time.
    Not if you keep on doing it. That's boring and repetitive, even for a LibDem
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.

    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
    I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.

    It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
    But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of society
    What did I say that was disrespectful?
    Sometimes your reference to the elderly do make me uneasy, especially as you are a doctor
    I went to a lecture in a conference once where an epidemiologist pointed out that if you considered Shipman as a communicable disease, you could have identified him by the spread of his victims (they were centered around two poles, his house and his local pub).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    edited November 2019

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
    They are mostly the middle class - they are not the rich
    Oh dear, Big_G, disappointed in you...

    This change would help everyone with an income of over £50k, and no one with an income of less.

    Now we can argue about what level you have to earn to be rich but only the richest 12% (including the super-rich by any definiton) are going to benefit from this change.

    (In contrast btw standard rate Universal Credit for those unable to work is £73.34 per week... £3,813 per year.)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1

    I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
    The only person I know who has met her (Duncan Hames) tells me she is extremely nice
    I chatted with her after the hustings. She is quite a normal person. That in itself is quite a contrast with the other party leaders in England.
    I’m also a little puzzled by the apparent deep aversion to her.
    Seems fairly inoffensive to me.

    And not obviously stupid or pathological.
    I must admit although I disagree with her on some fundamental points, I have seen nothing at all to make me think she deserves some of the comments she has received on here recently. Coming from some of the less outspoken posters they did take me by surprise.
    she is a donkey of the first order
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited November 2019
    Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health care. My own relatives experiences there (some fatal), high Standardised Mortality Rate for St Mary's Hospital and poor CQC report all substantiate that.
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
    I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.

    It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
    No it isn't, it is relating to the medical treatment of old people - iatros, doctor. Your misuse of the term implies that the old are by definition ill.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    If the new government doesn’t get its Budget ready sharpish, this would be the first year for a long time that hasn’t seen one.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
    I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.

    It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
    But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of society
    What did I say that was disrespectful?
    Sometimes your reference to the elderly do make me uneasy, especially as you are a doctor
    Who knows, Foxy might be a big fan of Logan's Run...
    I am rather a Jenny Agguter fan, being from the same generation.

    The point of the film though, is that a world of only the young is a dystopia.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
    I would benefit personally from this but I don't believe it is a clever idea either in terms of policy or electioneering.
    Good post. Me too, I’d be vastly better off (indeed that exact policy is almost tailor made to make me inordinately better off) but it seems senseless. Not sure of the optics either...
  • I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
    They are mostly the middle class - they are not the rich
    Oh dear, Big_G, disappointed in you...

    This change would help everyone with an income of over £50k, and no one with an income of less.

    Now we can argue about what level you have to earn to be rich but only the richest 12% (including the super-rich by any definiton) are going to benefit from this change.

    (In contrast btw standard rate Universal Credit for those unable to work is £73.34 per week... £3,813 per year.)
    One word Ben - aspiration
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    Foxy said:

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
    They are mostly the middle class - they are not the rich
    £50,000 is roughly twice median earnings. It is reasonable to describe those people (including myself) as rich.

    Obviously it is those on £80,000 or more who get the maximum benefit of this cut, and they are on 3 or more times Median earnings.
    Unfortunately, there is a regional effect. Most earners over £50K live in regions where the regional median earnings is higher than the national median earnings.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Ŵ

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Matthew Goodwin

    This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...

    "I will definitely vote for my party"
    Conservatives 71%
    Labour 60%
    #Brexit Party 55%
    Lib Dems 31% <------

    "I may change my mind"
    Conservative 7%
    Labour 16%
    Brexit Party 19%
    Lib Dem 29% <--------

    #GE2019
    YouGov data</p>

    Lib Dems less tribal?

    LibDems always score lowest in certainty. The other side of the coin is that they are usually highest of the parties that other voters might switch toward.
    That is where this graph matters.

    https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1189930603136847872?s=19
    How often are you going to post this?
    Pointing out how willing supporters of one party are willing to vote for another is highly relevant on a website about political betting, particularly at election time.
    Not if you keep on doing it. That's boring and repetitive, even for a LibDem
    The peculiarity of the original data is that a full 40% of LibDem voters are neither certain to vote for them nor open to changing their mind.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Matthew Goodwin

    This is what would make me nervous if I was a Lib Dem...

    "I will definitely vote for my party"
    Conservatives 71%
    Labour 60%
    #Brexit Party 55%
    Lib Dems 31% <------

    "I may change my mind"
    Conservative 7%
    Labour 16%
    Brexit Party 19%
    Lib Dem 29% <--------

    #GE2019
    YouGov data</p>

    Lib Dems less tribal?

    LibDems always score lowest in certainty. The other side of the coin is that they are usually highest of the parties that other voters might switch toward.
    That is where this graph matters.

    https://twitter.com/HzBrandenburg/status/1189930603136847872?s=19
    How often are you going to post this?
    Pointing out how willing supporters of one party are willing to vote for another is highly relevant on a website about political betting, particularly at election time.
    Not if you keep on doing it. That's boring and repetitive, even for a LibDem
    I have posted that tweet just twice. It is an important item of information for political punters doing their tactical voting sums.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 2,722

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:



    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:



    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    felix said:

    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    IanB2 said:

    Breaking: IOW LibDems announce that their selected candidate won’t be standing, as part of the Remain Alliance agreement with the Green Party

    Strange move,
    Greens got 17.3% there in 2017, and they should be able to squeeze the Lab vote.

    Not easy to overturn that Costa Geriatrica vote but not ridiculous either. Not all of those oldies want to fry the planet.
    A rather nasty ageist set of comments there. Try substituting a racial or religious word and you might just begin to get it.
    Age is the
    Although the last demographics I saw suggested that the island is over-heavy on the late middle aged and younger retired, rather than the very old. There comes a point when infirmity and the need to be near health care and/or family pushes some very old folk back to North Island.
    According to IOW council 24.13% of the population are over 65, compared to 17.23% of the SE region, and that proportion is growing faster than the national average.
    True, but my point relates to narrower age cohorts than that.
    The age pyramid on the IOW council website shows greater than English average age in all age bands over 50, up to the top band of 90's.

    I certainly agree though about the risks of being remote from high quality health
    I don't think the issue is how many elderly people live on IOW, more how you describe the elderly. I don't mind being thought of as old but I would object violently to being described as geriatric.
    I have no intention to offend but the definition of geriatric is "relating to old people" it is not a pejorative term.

    It is really not that remarkable to point out that a high percentage of older people makes a Constituency more likely to be Tory and Brexit.
    But your tone at times does offend. Respect for the elderly is a corner stone of society
    What did I say that was disrespectful?
    Sometimes your reference to the elderly do make me uneasy, especially as you are a doctor
    Who knows, Foxy might be a big fan of Logan's Run...
    I used to approve of that film. Then I passed 30.
    In the book it's 21 :worried:
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
    They are mostly the middle class - they are not the rich
    Oh dear, Big_G, disappointed in you...

    This change would help everyone with an income of over £50k, and no one with an income of less.

    Now we can argue about what level you have to earn to be rich but only the richest 12% (including the super-rich by any definiton) are going to benefit from this change.

    (In contrast btw standard rate Universal Credit for those unable to work is £73.34 per week... £3,813 per year.)
    far better for country and everyone to raise the tax allowance and give the poorest more cash
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1

    I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
    The only person I know who has met her (Duncan Hames) tells me she is extremely nice
    I chatted with her after the hustings. She is quite a normal person. That in itself is quite a contrast with the other party leaders in England.
    I’m also a little puzzled by the apparent deep aversion to her.
    Seems fairly inoffensive to me.

    And not obviously stupid or pathological.
    I must admit although I disagree with her on some fundamental points, I have seen nothing at all to make me think she deserves some of the comments she has received on here recently. Coming from some of the less outspoken posters they did take me by surprise.
    she is a donkey of the first order
    Highly persuasive post.

    Not.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,281
    malcolmg said:

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
    They are mostly the middle class - they are not the rich
    Oh dear, Big_G, disappointed in you...

    This change would help everyone with an income of over £50k, and no one with an income of less.

    Now we can argue about what level you have to earn to be rich but only the richest 12% (including the super-rich by any definiton) are going to benefit from this change.

    (In contrast btw standard rate Universal Credit for those unable to work is £73.34 per week... £3,813 per year.)
    far better for country and everyone to raise the tax allowance and give the poorest more cash
    Agree with you on that one! :wink:
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Former Labour Westminster candidate and outspoken Nottingham fuckwit.

    Oh and he is a lawyer which makes it even worse.
    If you read the comments under the ITV post, he does seem to be in tune with around 99.7% of the public though...
    I haven't seen it. Did they say what the sample size was?
    Just click on the link.

    The only reason I thought it at all notable was the virtual unanimity. Most unusual on any sports thread about almost anything.
    I wasn't asking to see it, I was just interested in the sample size. I'm sure ITV made every attempt to avoid bias in what they gave air to, but it did seem like the result from a North Korean election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,231
    edited November 2019

    Breaking

    Government ban fracking

    Middle-class morality again... :(
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:

    The LibDems going for this Jo Swinson Cult of Personality vibe, I think I like it.

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1190331983823589379/photo/1

    I think most people who have seen Jo Swinson do not like her (correct me if wrong).
    The only person I know who has met her (Duncan Hames) tells me she is extremely nice
    I chatted with her after the hustings. She is quite a normal person. That in itself is quite a contrast with the other party leaders in England.
    I’m also a little puzzled by the apparent deep aversion to her.
    Seems fairly inoffensive to me.

    And not obviously stupid or pathological.
    I must admit although I disagree with her on some fundamental points, I have seen nothing at all to make me think she deserves some of the comments she has received on here recently. Coming from some of the less outspoken posters they did take me by surprise.
    she is a donkey of the first order
    Highly persuasive post.

    Not.
    truth will always out , tough but fair
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    I see on the Borisograph otherwise known as the Daily Telegraph, BJ is promising a tax cut. Where is the money going to come from to do this? Brexit will mean the economy is smaller than if we stayed in the EU. Ten years of austerity and BJ wants to borrow more money so rich people have a tax cut... :disappointed:

    Can you explain which tax cut Boris is promising

    It will not be for the rich
    I don't think any tax cut is really prudent at the moment if it involves borrowing more money to finance it. The Tories used to be the party of sound public finances.

    By definition any tax cut is likely to help the rich unless it is offset with a tax rise that impacts higher earners. At a guess it is the personal allowance he is talking about but I can only see so much as I don't have access to the DT website.
    Maybe wait for the details. Tax cuts has taken millions out of tax
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/10/boris-johnson-promise-tax-cut-raise-40p-threshold
    Excellent news if he confirms it
    But it contradicts your statement that "It will not be for the rich".

    Boris Johnson promises tax cut for 3m higher earners
    Former foreign secretary says he will raise the 40p threshold from £50,000 to £80,000 if he becomes prime minister
    They are mostly the middle class - they are not the rich
    I think you are getting class muddled up with income. I’m towards the top of that bracket and apparently in the top 5% of earners in the UK, as remarkable as it might seem.
This discussion has been closed.