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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So, how will the LibDems do?

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited November 4 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So, how will the LibDems do?

Let me start by saying this is not an election I have much confidence in predicting. But because that makes for an uninteresting article, I will make some forecasts.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    edited November 4
    First. Like the Lib Dem candidates in many places. Robert told us the other day that his forecasts were based entirely on gut feeling. Far more important, I think, is that the Lib Dems are focusing their efforts on a relatively reduced number of seats. We have seen several reports in recent weeks of constituencies which have received several centrally-produced and delivered publications. This concentration will not be reflected in the overall polling figures.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,376
    Second like the Lib Dems in about 150 seats.
  • Lib Dems gain Sheffield Hallam, or I'll eat a pizza with a pineapple on it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 41,221
    Fifth :o
  • rcs1000 said:

    Outstanding piece. I wish there more like that on pb.

    Self praise is no praise at all. I can teach you lessons in modesty and humility if you like.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 37,839
    Is it just me, or Houston do we have a problem with the thread on the main site not appearing?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 41,221
    rcs1000 said:

    Outstanding piece. I wish there more like that on pb.

    Utterly magnificent. I wish the same could be said about the comment system.


    *ahem* :D
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 350
    Glad Hoyle won but appropriate that the last act of a ridiculous Parliament was to elect a Speaker who could theoretically serve one day and presumably many MPs who will cease to be MPs tomorrow voted. Why didn't they wait til after the election as in 1992?

    Also about 100 MPs didn't vote. Disgruntled Tories who didn't want to choose between two Labour MPs?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    edited November 4
    Ceredigion is a hard one - it has two universities that had broken up by the GE in 2017 which may have let Plaid win, but Ben Lake is a popular MP and a Welsh Speaker which still means something around here Also the AM is Elin Jones PC now the Senedd's President so it will be close but from what Mark Williams the former MP said in the local press last week hes up for the fight so sounds like no pact here and of course it Remain. Im going to go for PC hold
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,196
    edited November 4
    I think the Tories will hold South Cambridgeshire and gain Leave voting North Norfolk and Eastbourne from the LDs but Chuka will win Cities of London and Westminster and Luciana will win Finchley and Golders Green from the Tories, Labour falling to 3rd in both heavily Remain seats through tactical voting for the LDs
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,779
    I have a feeling the Lib Dems will outperform expectations.

    Remainers can't vote Conservative. But can they really vote Labour, either? Aside from the fact that the Labour position is ambiguous, _this is probably their very last chance_ to register their disgust with Brexit before we leave. A vote for the Lib Dems is the clearest proxy for that.

    More than that, though I see a lot of my well-to-do remainer friends talking about voting Labour tactically, I just don't see those higher income middle class turkeys voting for Christmas once the Labour manifesto becomes apparent.

    The dementia tax is mentioned often, but for me the key failure of the Conservative GE campaign was to fail to drive home the message that the vast amount of Corbyn's policies would be paid for by the squeezed middle. Not the ultra rich in their golden ferraris, but ordinary, hardworking homeowners and professionals.

    Labour's proposal to tax all inheritance over £125000 has the real potential to become this year's dementia tax. That will affect a vast number of people. Will they vote Labour? I doubt it. Will they hold their nose and vote Conservative? Probably not. So who is left? The lib dems.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,584
    Robert the voice of reason as ever!

    Although I put Richmond Park as 99.99% :smile:

    SuperJo maybe not as super as some think!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 23,374
    edited November 4
    Shouldn’t that be Hornsey and Wood Green, rather than Horney?

    Or was it an awesome pun suggesting that might be a hard one?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 41,221
    houndtang said:

    Glad Hoyle won but appropriate that the last act of a ridiculous Parliament was to elect a Speaker who could theoretically serve one day and presumably many MPs who will cease to be MPs tomorrow voted. Why didn't they wait til after the election as in 1992?

    Also about 100 MPs didn't vote. Disgruntled Tories who didn't want to choose between two Labour MPs?

    SNP were away, making up a good chunk of those that were absent.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Apparently Ann Widdecombe is standing for the Brexit Party, but infuriatingly I can't seem to find out which constituency. Does anyone on PB know?
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,592
    houndtang said:

    Glad Hoyle won but appropriate that the last act of a ridiculous Parliament was to elect a Speaker who could theoretically serve one day and presumably many MPs who will cease to be MPs tomorrow voted. Why didn't they wait til after the election as in 1992?

    Also about 100 MPs didn't vote. Disgruntled Tories who didn't want to choose between two Labour MPs?

    No, mostly SNP MP's; their benches were noticeably empty.
  • I'm in Finchley & Golders Green the Lib Dems are pushing Luciana with two leaflets a week... a survey and post card just today... however all being done through Royal Mail as there isn't much of a historical base to work from and few local activists. A couple of leaflets from the Conservatives as well and they have canvassed. However one of those was calling for a parking zone on the basis of the people parking and going to a station that isn't nearby or the nearest station. Parking is an issue but it's because of three to four cars per household rather than commuters. Promising to tax them extra probably isn't a vote winner. Brexit party have held a series of street stalls but no activity from Labour or Greens so far.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 23,374
    AndyJS said:

    Apparently Ann Widdecombe is standing for the Brexit Party, but infuriatingly I can't seem to find out which constituency. Does anyone on PB know?

    I’m not unduly bothered as long as it’s not Cannock Chase, tbh.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 41,221
    edited November 4
    AndyJS said:

    Apparently Ann Widdecombe is standing for the Brexit Party, but infuriatingly I can't seem to find out which constituency. Does anyone on PB know?

    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport

    https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/ann-widdecombe-stand-brexit-party-3259670
  • AndyJS said:

    Apparently Ann Widdecombe is standing for the Brexit Party, but infuriatingly I can't seem to find out which constituency. Does anyone on PB know?

    Plymouth Sutton.
  • Lib Dems gain Sheffield Hallam, or I'll eat a pizza with a pineapple on it.

    Plus NE Fife.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,558
    How will they do? Inconsistently. I was amazed they didn't win Richmond Park last time, so that does look a safe bet. Fife NE would be a heck of a block not to win given how close they came last time. But on the whole it's a sound looking prediction you make - good recovery really, not as world beating as they'd like it to be or are acting as though it will be, but on the right path. Further success may depend on if the Tories win a majority or if the LDs find themselves having to back a Labour minority government to get a referendum.

    BTW, it's being a big cheater to open your piece by saying you don't have much confidence in predicting this election, you're supposed to slip that in at the end to cover your arse.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 41,221

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently Ann Widdecombe is standing for the Brexit Party, but infuriatingly I can't seem to find out which constituency. Does anyone on PB know?

    Plymouth Sutton.
    Too slow, my friend. :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,371
    FPT:

    It is weird that we have a system that places so much emphasis on the link between MP and constituency and the MPs role in engaging in the political process on behalf of their constituents, yet then tolerates four such constituencies whose MPs are unable to engage in politics and one where every elector is effectively excluded from the election.

    It would be more sensible for the Speaker and deputies to be excluded from the 650 MP total, and for a vacancy to be created upon their ascent to said position, to be filled by by-election. Thereby ensuring all constituencies are represented by an active political (except Hallam, obvs ;) )
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,165
    PClipp said:

    First. Like the Lib Dem candidates in many places. Robert told us the other day that his forecasts were based entirely on gut feeling. Far more important, I think, is that the Lib Dems are focusing their efforts on a relatively reduced number of seats. We have seen several reports in recent weeks of constituencies which have received several centrally-produced and delivered publications. This concentration will not be reflected in the overall polling figures.

    The lib dems have always been a 50/50 party at elections, fifty targets and fifty development seats. Thirty is looking on the difference this time is that we have the cash fo r an air war as well as a ground war. Many on here think we shouldn’t exist and should leave it to the real politicians, well they can fuck off.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,558

    Lib Dems gain Sheffield Hallam, or I'll eat a pizza with a pineapple on it.

    Old promise. How about eating a pineapple with pizza on it?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,376
    edited November 4
    Based on this thread then the 4/6 available with Ladbrokes on Plaid to get 4 seats or less is excellent value. It loses only if PC hang on in Ceredigion (=30% chance if Robert's 70% is correct) AND their other 3 seats AND they also pick up another seat, with Ynys Mon being the only realistic possibility of a gain in a seat where the Conservatives are also in contention to take the seat off Labour.
  • kle4 said:

    Lib Dems gain Sheffield Hallam, or I'll eat a pizza with a pineapple on it.

    Old promise. How about eating a pineapple with pizza on it?
    I'm sticking to manageable stuff.

    I'm still haunted by the fact that in the run up to GE2017 I told my then girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,592
    HYUFD said:

    I think the Tories will hold South Cambridgeshire and gain Leave voting North Norfolk and Eastbourne from the LDs but Chuka will win Cities of London and Westminster and Luciana will win Finchley and Golders Green from the Tories, Labour falling to 3rd in both heavily Remain seats through tactical voting for the LDs

    Timmy Farron might struggle to hold Westmorland; he was badly damaged reputationally in 2017.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,558
    ydoethur said:

    Shouldn’t that be Hornsey and Wood Green, rather than Horney?

    Or was it an awesome pun suggesting that might be a hard one?

    Unlike you I don't think Robert's brain is 75% comprised of punning :)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,558
    IanB2 said:

    FPT:

    It is weird that we have a system that places so much emphasis on the link between MP and constituency and the MPs role in engaging in the political process on behalf of their constituents, yet then tolerates four such constituencies whose MPs are unable to engage in politics and one where every elector is effectively excluded from the election.

    It would be more sensible for the Speaker and deputies to be excluded from the 650 MP total, and for a vacancy to be created upon their ascent to said position, to be filled by by-election. Thereby ensuring all constituencies are represented by an active political (except Hallam, obvs ;) )

    Not an unreasonable suggestion as far as I'm concerned.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    PClipp said:

    First. Like the Lib Dem candidates in many places. Robert told us the other day that his forecasts were based entirely on gut feeling. Far more important, I think, is that the Lib Dems are focusing their efforts on a relatively reduced number of seats. We have seen several reports in recent weeks of constituencies which have received several centrally-produced and delivered publications. This concentration will not be reflected in the overall polling figures.

    I received one of those in a strong Remain seat where the Liberal Democrats came fourth in 2017, losing their deposit (though an improvement on fifth in 2015). I assume that they're hoping for second place at best - they were a strong second in 2005 and 2010, but a lot has happened since then.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently Ann Widdecombe is standing for the Brexit Party, but infuriatingly I can't seem to find out which constituency. Does anyone on PB know?

    Plymouth Sutton and Devonport

    https://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/news/plymouth-news/ann-widdecombe-stand-brexit-party-3259670
    Interesting — she stood in Plymouth Devonport against Dr David Owen in 1983.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,165

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently Ann Widdecombe is standing for the Brexit Party, but infuriatingly I can't seem to find out which constituency. Does anyone on PB know?

    Plymouth Sutton.
    I told my daughter last night if she knocked on her door that she told her she was with her partner in a trans gender transitional relationship seeking to work out if they wanted to be vicars or priests.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 23,374
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Shouldn’t that be Hornsey and Wood Green, rather than Horney?

    Or was it an awesome pun suggesting that might be a hard one?

    Unlike you I don't think Robert's brain is 75% comprised of punning :)
    That’s an outrageous suggestion.

    It implies there are times when I’m not fully focussed on punning.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,217
    All I'd say about the Lib-Dems is in election after election after election they have tended to underperform expectations and circumstances.

    Even after the Claggasm they LOST seats on the day!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,371
    On the list in the lead, I’d have doubts about Hornsey and Leeds, but feel more confident about Wells, Winchester and Hazel Grove. I’d also be looking for Guildford. Ashfield could fall to the ex-LD Indy. B&R should be a hold (GE to GE gain). Watch for other remainy LibDem/Tory marginals along the welsh borders, SW and Home Counties.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently Ann Widdecombe is standing for the Brexit Party, but infuriatingly I can't seem to find out which constituency. Does anyone on PB know?

    Plymouth Sutton.
    Thanks.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    FPT HYUFT and Big G
    nunu2 said:



    Roger said:

    Two interesting NEW polls from a quick flick through the last thread. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.

    The Wales poll shows

    Labour 18 (-10)
    Conservatives 17 (+9)
    Plaid 4
    Lib dem 1 (+1)

    This would see labour in a minority of seats for the first time in decades
    Also the tory share has risen faster than Labour with icm
    The poll I was referring to tells a different story re the Welsh poll.


    Labour: 29 (+4)
    Conservatives: 28 (-1)
    Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
    Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
    Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
    Greens: 3 (-1)
    Others: 1 (no change)

    Posted with no comment
  • RobDRobD Posts: 41,221
    Roger said:

    FPT HYUFT and Big G

    nunu2 said:



    Roger said:

    Two interesting NEW polls from a quick flick through the last thread. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.

    The Wales poll shows

    Labour 18 (-10)
    Conservatives 17 (+9)
    Plaid 4
    Lib dem 1 (+1)

    This would see labour in a minority of seats for the first time in decades
    Also the tory share has risen faster than Labour with icm
    The poll I was referring to tells a different story re the Welsh poll.


    Labour: 29 (+4)
    Conservatives: 28 (-1)
    Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
    Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
    Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
    Greens: 3 (-1)
    Others: 1 (no change)

    Posted with no comment
    Seats vs votes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 23,374
    nichomar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently Ann Widdecombe is standing for the Brexit Party, but infuriatingly I can't seem to find out which constituency. Does anyone on PB know?

    Plymouth Sutton.
    I told my daughter last night if she knocked on her door that she told her she was with her partner in a trans gender transitional relationship seeking to work out if they wanted to be vicars or priests.
    I’m confused. Does that relate to your daughter, Anne Widdecombe or the Brexit Party?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,558
    While any opinions will obviously coloured by his own position, I must say I think Guido's campaign roundups via bullet points of the main parties is a useful approach more should adopt.

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/04/campaign-round-38-days-go/
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,371

    Based on this thread then the 4/6 available with Ladbrokes on Plaid to get 4 seats or less is excellent value. It loses only if PC hang on in Ceredigion (=30% chance if Robert's 70% is correct) AND their other 3 seats AND they also pick up another seat, with Ynys Mon being the only realistic possibility of a gain in a seat where the Conservatives are also in contention to take the seat off Labour.

    DYOR anyone contemplating such a grammatically flawed proposition.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,157
    edited November 4

    kle4 said:

    Lib Dems gain Sheffield Hallam, or I'll eat a pizza with a pineapple on it.

    Old promise. How about eating a pineapple with pizza on it?
    I'm sticking to manageable stuff.

    I'm still haunted by the fact that in the run up to GE2017 I told my then girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.
    That's one way to persuade her to vote Tory!
  • nichomar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently Ann Widdecombe is standing for the Brexit Party, but infuriatingly I can't seem to find out which constituency. Does anyone on PB know?

    Plymouth Sutton.
    I told my daughter last night if she knocked on her door that she told her she was with her partner in a trans gender transitional relationship seeking to work out if they wanted to be vicars or priests.
    Is it the lagershed?

    A gay friend of mine wants to meet Ann Widdecombe because she's improved his sex life.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,371
    houndtang said:

    Glad Hoyle won but appropriate that the last act of a ridiculous Parliament was to elect a Speaker who could theoretically serve one day and presumably many MPs who will cease to be MPs tomorrow voted. Why didn't they wait til after the election as in 1992?

    Also about 100 MPs didn't vote. Disgruntled Tories who didn't want to choose between two Labour MPs?


    Mostly SNP who have sensibly gone home
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,558
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Shouldn’t that be Hornsey and Wood Green, rather than Horney?

    Or was it an awesome pun suggesting that might be a hard one?

    Unlike you I don't think Robert's brain is 75% comprised of punning :)
    That’s an outrageous suggestion.

    It implies there are times when I’m not fully focussed on punning.
    Well I assume you spend a small percentage on a daily lesson plan, and some more focusing on working your mighty organ, although in fairness there's some overlap with the punning there.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 4,165
    edited November 4
    ydoethur said:

    nichomar said:

    AndyJS said:

    Apparently Ann Widdecombe is standing for the Brexit Party, but infuriatingly I can't seem to find out which constituency. Does anyone on PB know?

    Plymouth Sutton.
    I told my daughter last night if she knocked on her door that she told her she was with her partner in a trans gender transitional relationship seeking to work out if they wanted to be vicars or priests.
    I’m confused. Does that relate to your daughter, Anne Widdecombe or the Brexit Party?
    No just a good way of ensuring that she left them alone and confused as to where to put the tick
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,157
    rcs1000 said:

    Outstanding piece. I wish there more like that on pb.


    Living in Trump's America is beginning to rub off I see. :wink:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,196
    TudorRose said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think the Tories will hold South Cambridgeshire and gain Leave voting North Norfolk and Eastbourne from the LDs but Chuka will win Cities of London and Westminster and Luciana will win Finchley and Golders Green from the Tories, Labour falling to 3rd in both heavily Remain seats through tactical voting for the LDs

    Timmy Farron might struggle to hold Westmorland; he was badly damaged reputationally in 2017.
    Westmoreland was Remain though unlike Eastbourne and North Norfolk
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,371
    GIN1138 said:

    All I'd say about the Lib-Dems is in election after election after election they have tended to underperform expectations and circumstances.

    Even after the Claggasm they LOST seats on the day!

    Lesson from 2010: LDs struggle to win seats unless the Tory vote share is falling. Highly relevant to 2019
  • camelcamel Posts: 730
    Great article.
    Was expecting to see Cheltenham mentioned - it meets your criteria. As I am hoping for a LibDem gain here, have I missed something?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 2,675
    GIN1138 said:

    All I'd say about the Lib-Dems is in election after election after election they have tended to underperform expectations and circumstances.

    Even after the Claggasm they LOST seats on the day!

    Because our electoral system pushes people to back one or other of the old duopoly as election day approaches.

    Have a fair system like we had for the Euros and they do just fine.

    It's really not rocket science
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,196
    edited November 4
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    All I'd say about the Lib-Dems is in election after election after election they have tended to underperform expectations and circumstances.

    Even after the Claggasm they LOST seats on the day!

    Lesson from 2010: LDs struggle to win seats unless the Tory vote share is falling. Highly relevant to 2019
    That was not the case in 2005 or 2017
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,376
    edited November 4
    HYUFD said:

    I think the Tories will..... gain Leave voting North Norfolk and Eastbourne from the LDs ......

    They are certainly in contention and the LDs won't hang on if they rely only on Remain supporters in those Leave seats. Yet nationally only 3% of Leave supporters currently plan to vote LD according to YouGov. Norman Lamb is also standing down so I expect the Conservatives to pick up his seat, Eastbourne is harder to call and the Brexit waters there are a bit muddier given the MP's stance.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,157
    kle4 said:

    While any opinions will obviously coloured by his own position, I must say I think Guido's campaign roundups via bullet points of the main parties is a useful approach more should adopt.

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/04/campaign-round-38-days-go/

    Yes that is good tbf. The first good thing I've seen on Guido for... well, ever really.
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    HYUFD said:

    I think the Tories will hold South Cambridgeshire and gain Leave voting North Norfolk and Eastbourne from the LDs but Chuka will win Cities of London and Westminster and Luciana will win Finchley and Golders Green from the Tories, Labour falling to 3rd in both heavily Remain seats through tactical voting for the LDs

    Eastbourne is a special case. The MP there basically spends all his time working the constituency.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,157

    HYUFD said:

    I think the Tories will..... gain Leave voting North Norfolk and Eastbourne from the LDs ......

    They are certainly in contention and the LDs won't hang on if they rely only on Remain supporters in those Leave seats. Yet nationally only 3% of Remain supporters currently plan to vote LD according to YouGov. Norman Lamb is also standing down so I expect the Conservatives to pick up his seat, Eastbourne is harder to call and the Brexit waters there are a bit muddier given the MP's stance.
    "nationally only 3% of Remain supporters currently plan to vote LD according to YouGov"

    Really? How does that work?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 11,157
    IanB2 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    All I'd say about the Lib-Dems is in election after election after election they have tended to underperform expectations and circumstances.

    Even after the Claggasm they LOST seats on the day!

    Lesson from 2010: LDs struggle to win seats unless the Tory vote share is falling. Highly relevant to 2019
    Tory vote share in 2017 = 43.5%; Tory vote share average of recent polls = 39%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,371
    edited November 4
    Despite the rave reviews under this twitter thread I think it may be flawed.

    We aren’t looking at Tory and Labour “supporters “defecting” to the BXP.

    We are looking at BXP Euro-election voters and weighing up how many of them might switch (“return”, if you insist) to Tory or Labour.

    Looked at this way, Tory leavers - except the diehard ultras who won’t shift anyway - clearly have every reason to return, whereas Labour leavers don’t (excepting to those few Lab MPs with leaver appeal like Flint).

    Therefore it remains possible that at its current single figure ratings the BXP has very few potential switchers to Tory amongst its support.

    This hypothesis has added credibility when you consider that the Tory vote share has already recovered considerably as BXP deflated, whereas Labour’s has not (only just picking up more recently as the LDs start to drift)
  • I agree with Robert. I doubt the Liberals will get more than 30 seats. I would like to see the Liberals take Fife NE but equally would love to see the SNP retake East Dunbartonshire from the Bearsden girl guide but I fear they will let me down. Does anyone expect any of the defectors not running away to hold either their existing seat or the new ones they have been parachuted into?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    edited November 4
    interesting predictions. My guess is that this election will be unique among general elections in that more people will be voting against a party than for one. So the insipid ones are likely to score best. The Lib Dems forte so they could be tactical voting's big winners.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,602
    IanB2 said:

    FPT:

    It is weird that we have a system that places so much emphasis on the link between MP and constituency and the MPs role in engaging in the political process on behalf of their constituents, yet then tolerates four such constituencies whose MPs are unable to engage in politics and one where every elector is effectively excluded from the election.

    It would be more sensible for the Speaker and deputies to be excluded from the 650 MP total, and for a vacancy to be created upon their ascent to said position, to be filled by by-election. Thereby ensuring all constituencies are represented by an active political (except Hallam, obvs ;) )

    To be fair the Speaker by tradition gets privileged access for constituency problems (typically a direct meeting with the Minister) to compensate for their inability to raise the issue in the normal way. I assume the same applies to deputies. So it's only on the more political issues that their constituents can't raise controversial points, and to be fair there are 640 other people only too keen to fill in for them.

    It's nice to see the genuine all-party enthusiasm for Lindsay. He's unpompous and working-class and Northern without making a big thing of any of it - he just is what he is, and neither boasts nor apologises for it. He was never wildly partisan - a union man, but not associated as far as I know with any of the party factions. He's also quite jolly, which doesn't do any harm in these fraught times.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    FPT HYUFT and Big G

    nunu2 said:



    Roger said:

    Two interesting NEW polls from a quick flick through the last thread. ICM (the gold standard ) has Labour within 7 points of the Tories and another poll showing Labour overtaking the Tories in Wales. Clearly the fat lady hasn't even cleared her throat yet.

    The Wales poll shows

    Labour 18 (-10)
    Conservatives 17 (+9)
    Plaid 4
    Lib dem 1 (+1)

    This would see labour in a minority of seats for the first time in decades
    Also the tory share has risen faster than Labour with icm
    The poll I was referring to tells a different story re the Welsh poll.


    Labour: 29 (+4)
    Conservatives: 28 (-1)
    Brexit Party: 15 (+1)
    Liberal Democrats: 12 (-4)
    Plaid Cymru: 12 (no change)
    Greens: 3 (-1)
    Others: 1 (no change)

    Posted with no comment
    Seats vs votes.
    Ok! Thanks
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 2,078
    kle4 said:

    While any opinions will obviously coloured by his own position, I must say I think Guido's campaign roundups via bullet points of the main parties is a useful approach more should adopt.

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/04/campaign-round-38-days-go/

    Guido also has a list of MPs standing down. I’d missed this one:

    Bill Grant, Con, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

    He is nearly 70, and has had a quiet two years.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 29,929
    nichomar said:

    PClipp said:

    First. Like the Lib Dem candidates in many places. Robert told us the other day that his forecasts were based entirely on gut feeling. Far more important, I think, is that the Lib Dems are focusing their efforts on a relatively reduced number of seats. We have seen several reports in recent weeks of constituencies which have received several centrally-produced and delivered publications. This concentration will not be reflected in the overall polling figures.

    The lib dems have always been a 50/50 party at elections, fifty targets and fifty development seats. Thirty is looking on the difference this time is that we have the cash fo r an air war as well as a ground war. Many on here think we shouldn’t exist and should leave it to the real politicians, well they can fuck off.
    You are admitting that with such a limited number of target seats, the leaflet from Jo Swinson saying she is going to be Prime Minister is, to coin a phrase, bollocks?

    So why should she be in the potential PMs debate? Or maybe, I dunno, she should fuck off?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Some rather nifty hats on display in the House of Lords at present.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,376

    HYUFD said:

    I think the Tories will..... gain Leave voting North Norfolk and Eastbourne from the LDs ......

    They are certainly in contention and the LDs won't hang on if they rely only on Remain supporters in those Leave seats. Yet nationally only 3% of Remain supporters currently plan to vote LD according to YouGov. Norman Lamb is also standing down so I expect the Conservatives to pick up his seat, Eastbourne is harder to call and the Brexit waters there are a bit muddier given the MP's stance.
    "nationally only 3% of Remain supporters currently plan to vote LD according to YouGov"

    Really? How does that work?
    Fair cop. Now edited to Leave.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 12,887
    Scott_P said:
    Boris getting in practice asking questions.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 41,221
    edited November 4
    AndyJS said:

    Some rather nifty hats on display in the House of Lords at present.

    What's up with the guy in the middle? :p

    Edit: Chancellor of Great Britain, that explains that.
  • eekeek Posts: 6,321
    IanB2 said:

    Despite the rave reviews under this twitter thread I think it may be flawed.

    We aren’t looking at Tory and Labour “supporters “defecting” to the BXP.

    We are looking at BXP Euro-election voters and weighing up how many of them might switch (“return”, if you insist) to Tory or Labour.

    Looked at this way, Tory leavers - except the diehard ultras who won’t shift anyway - clearly have every reason to return, whereas Labour leavers don’t (excepting to those few Lab MPs with leaver appeal like Flint).

    Therefore it remains possible that at its current single figure ratings the BXP has very few potential switchers to Tory amongst its support.

    This hypothesis has added credibility when you consider that the Tory vote share has already recovered considerably as BXP deflated, whereas Labour’s has not (only just picking up more recently as the LDs start to drift)
    Your reading assumes that Brexit is the bee all and end all - if it's not you then need to work out how things pan out.

    Boris promising to leave and failing to do so will be on the BXP main stories. That will not help the Tories reclaim BXP ex-Tory voters.

    Labour is clearly focussing on other items outside Brexit. That may win some of their BXP votes back.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 3,594

    South Cambs: I agree the seat is trending LibDem, mainly because Cambridge house prices are driving young professionals/academics into South Cambs. Homerton College is (just) within the boundaries by metres, but many of the students will not be in South Cambs, but in Cambridge City. The fact that Heidi Allen chose not to contest seems significant to me. She was always the most likely TIGGer to retain her seat. In the absence of Heidi, I think this is TORY HOLD

    Ceredigion: I'd like to think Ben Lake will hold this seat. However, Plaid Cymru took it in 2017 even though their vote share dropped -- the LibDem vote share happened to drop more. It was a very fortuitous circumstance, so reluctantly I think the LibDems will take it, on the back of the student vote in the two universities. LIBDEM GAIN.

    I am very sceptical on Leeds North West and Hornsey and Wood Green. LAB HOLDS, I think.

    The seat that you don't mention which I rate very likely to fall is Guildford. The LibDems start in second place, with a largish Labour vote to squeeze. It is one of the few University seats held by the Tories, the Universities are very Remain-y (not entirely from altruistic reasons). The Tory MP is now ex-Tory. I think this, with St Albans, are the most likely LIBDEM GAINS.

    I think all the defectors will lose their seats, and I think Brecon & Radnorshire will be a TORY HOLD, the by-election victor being kicked out.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Some rather nifty hats on display in the House of Lords at present.

    What's up with the guy in the middle? :p
    Robert Buckland, MP for Swindon South.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 16,866
    Widders has a patented equine conversion therapy, Neigh Away the Gay, for just that possibility. There's also Bray Away the Gay for predatory donkeys.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I want a hat like Robert Buckland's.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,558

    kle4 said:

    While any opinions will obviously coloured by his own position, I must say I think Guido's campaign roundups via bullet points of the main parties is a useful approach more should adopt.

    https://order-order.com/2019/11/04/campaign-round-38-days-go/

    Guido also has a list of MPs standing down. I’d missed this one:

    Bill Grant, Con, Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

    He is nearly 70, and has had a quiet two years.
    Looking at the massive shifts in votes in that seat, like many others in Scotland, I don't think becoming a Scottish MP is a path for those seeking a quiet life generally though.

    After SNP up 30, then Con up 20, might as well now see LDs up 35 so we can See Lab/SNP/Con/LD follow each other in successive elections.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    edited November 4
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    Boris getting in practice asking questions.
    What is this biased framing? "Try to regain the election narrative" from what exactly? Some random rubbish on Labour's part?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,371
    Never ending rain is at least keeping fireworks at bay this year. Keeping them in their box, you could say.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 12,180

    Second like the Lib Dems in about 150 seats.

    Will be a good stepping off point for the 2020 GE...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 16,604

    I agree with Robert. I doubt the Liberals will get more than 30 seats. I would like to see the Liberals take Fife NE but equally would love to see the SNP retake East Dunbartonshire from the Bearsden girl guide but I fear they will let me down. Does anyone expect any of the defectors not running away to hold either their existing seat or the new ones they have been parachuted into?

    I will be amazed if the Liberals get any seats at all. Totally different party fro the Liberal Democrat’s.
    Anti-Eu for a start.

    And by rising to his bait I’ve made Mr NC’s evening, I’m sure!
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 1,623
    Good piece Robert and excellent for betting purposes.

    It's possible that a corridor of seats from Richmond roughly down the A3 may become a little more marginal after this election: places like Woking and Guildford. Look at the locals and euros before dismissing this.

    In the South-west, whatever MM proclaims, Totnes could be close. Sarah Wollaston is an interesting MP and she wasn't elected as a typical Conservative.

    Generally though the LibDems need some national traction.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,558
    I'm a little surprised they don't turn off the ambient mics while MPs are just making their way back into the chamber and nattering to one another.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 1,623
    edited November 4

    I agree with Robert. I doubt the Liberals [...] I would like to see the Liberals

    Their name is Liberal Democrats
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 9,135
    Colchester not mentioned

    Martin Goss will be disappointed - but Libs fell to 3rd in 2017 from first in 2010.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Looks like the new speaker has opted against wearing a wig. The last speaker to do so was Bernard Weatherill I believe.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 9,135
    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    Boris getting in practice asking questions.
    You think the marxists will get a majority?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 27,173
    Foxy said:

    Second like the Lib Dems in about 150 seats.

    Will be a good stepping off point for the 2020 GE...
    Yep. You are thinking my kind of thinking.

    Minority government goes for new election next year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,558
    edited November 4



    Their name is Liberal Democrats

    And the Tories are the Conservative and Unionist Party and some Labour MPs are Labour and Co-Operative Party MPs and we don't both to be precise every single time with them, there's no confusion referring to the Lib Dems as the Liberals as a shorthand. The actual Liberal Party are so tiny there's no reasonable way for people to get confused by who is meant.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 9,135

    nichomar said:

    PClipp said:

    First. Like the Lib Dem candidates in many places. Robert told us the other day that his forecasts were based entirely on gut feeling. Far more important, I think, is that the Lib Dems are focusing their efforts on a relatively reduced number of seats. We have seen several reports in recent weeks of constituencies which have received several centrally-produced and delivered publications. This concentration will not be reflected in the overall polling figures.

    The lib dems have always been a 50/50 party at elections, fifty targets and fifty development seats. Thirty is looking on the difference this time is that we have the cash fo r an air war as well as a ground war. Many on here think we shouldn’t exist and should leave it to the real politicians, well they can fuck off.
    You are admitting that with such a limited number of target seats, the leaflet from Jo Swinson saying she is going to be Prime Minister is, to coin a phrase, bollocks?

    So why should she be in the potential PMs debate? Or maybe, I dunno, she should fuck off?
    Yes - her inclusion would be a joke.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,269
    camel said:

    Great article.
    Was expecting to see Cheltenham mentioned - it meets your criteria. As I am hoping for a LibDem gain here, have I missed something?

    Whose the libdem candidate this time?

    And are you a camel if you have two humps?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 22,371
    Floater said:

    Jonathan said:

    Scott_P said:
    Boris getting in practice asking questions.
    You think the marxists will get a majority?
    Bozo hasn’t got the patience, perseverance or work ethic to be LOTO
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 50,558
    Foxy said:

    Second like the Lib Dems in about 150 seats.

    Will be a good stepping off point for the 2020 GE...
    And unfortunately a 2020 GE is a higher chance than people are realising right now. Would be fitting after the last December election. Perhaps it will be a straight reversal of the outcome of 1924 then.
  • llefllef Posts: 250
    On the basis of this piece, is labour good value at 13/8 to hold bermondsey?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 898
    A fair article

    Ir will make or much much easier for Tories to GAIN a majority
This discussion has been closed.