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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the latest YouGov is on the right lines the Tories are set

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    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578


    Any examples? Links to Youtube or Facebook? Or even to descriptions? Most of the post-election commentary praised Labour's 2017 digital operation.

    I was shown some of them by my nephews. They went on to vote Labour. What was most interesting about it was to see the brain-washing in operation; it was extremely effective even with intelligent and well-educated youngsters, albeit highly cynical.

    The kinds of thing that were in the videos were very nasty insinuations about Theresa May and Grenfell, or implying that she took active delight in people committing suicide. Really, really nasty stuff.

    Fortunately youngsters now seem to have become a bit more inured to Corbyn's charms; those I know all seem to be voting LibDem this time.
    Any videos used in the 2017 election would not have mentioned Grenfell because the fire took place six days after polling day.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Not a great news day for the Tories. first J R_M reminds us why they're the nasty party then they hold back a report on Russia reminding us they're also the sleazy party

    They’ve had a suboptimal start to the campaign, most certainly.
    Eerily reminiscent of 2017. The Tories fire the starting gun, then are nowhere to be seen.
    Their launch is tomorrow.
    Fair enough but in the days between the HoC voting for an election and tomorrow, they've let Labour build up a head of steam. Again.
    A short campaign benefits the Tories, holding off even a few days will benefit them. It also allows them to take a look at The Lib Dem and Lab approach before making any major announcements.
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    Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Gabs2 said:

    Have we ever had an election with a former Chancellor, former Home Secretary and former Foreign Secretary all stepped down?

    Yes we have, along with a former PM, in 1987.

    (they were all the same man, James Callaghan)
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    PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    That's pretty shit
    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1191732381306277890?s=19
    Original interview is in the next tweet.

    The Boris campaign will be ruthless with Corbyn Labour, the May campaign was not and it showed.
    You call it "ruthless". I call it unprincipled, dishonest, uncivilised. So I suppose we agree, really.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836

    What % of voters would need to be willing to vote tactically between LD & LAB to deprive the Tories of a majority? It must be quite high.

    I don't think that Labour and Lib Dem voters are interchangeable, in any case.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited November 2019

    Roger said:

    Not a great news day for the Tories. first J R_M reminds us why they're the nasty party then they hold back a report on Russia reminding us they're also the sleazy party

    They’ve had a suboptimal start to the campaign, most certainly.
    Listen to the Andrew Bridgen interview I've just posted . Even Richard Tyndall and Philip Thompson might stop genuflecting to their great leaders when they hear that.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    HYUFD said:

    The Boris campaign will be ruthless with Corbyn Labour, the May campaign was not and it showed.

    One would hope that "ruthless" would stop short of doctoring film footage.
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    Changing the discussion Richard. Poor show. Clearly because you have no answer for the main point which is that Hammond did all he could to hinder Brexit negotiations whilst Chancellor.

    How can I have an answer to a point which is unmitigated garbage? When he was in government we had a very successful Brexit negotiation and would have left the EU on March 29th, if the nuttier leavers, chancers and a well-known careerist hadn't torpedoed things.
    We got a terrible deal with an unacceptable backstop. We were told under him removing the backstop was never going to be an option.

    Boris removed Hammonds intransigence to prepare properly and suddenly the backstop was able to be removed. Funny that!

    Johnson did the right thing in giving the Irish what they wanted. In backing down and betraying the DUP he has also ensured that the UK has lost its last piece of leverage in the forthcoming trade negotiations. But that is the nature of Brexit, really.

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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    This YouGov poll is better for Labour than at the same point before the last general election .

    They had a 5 point lead then , this time they have a 10 point lead . Although things are different now re the background to that election I still expect Labour to increase their share of the vote in London over the coming weeks .

    Do you have the absolute figures in both cases?
    Yes YouGov had the following . That was published early May .

    Labour 41

    Tory 36

    Lib Dem 14

    UKIP 6

    Green 3

    At the GE the result for top 3.

    Labour 54

    Tory 33

    Lib Dem 9

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    Changing the discussion Richard. Poor show. Clearly because you have no answer for the main point which is that Hammond did all he could to hinder Brexit negotiations whilst Chancellor.

    How can I have an answer to a point which is unmitigated garbage? When he was in government we had a very successful Brexit negotiation and would have left the EU on March 29th, if the nuttier leavers, chancers and a well-known careerist hadn't torpedoed things.
    We got a terrible deal with an unacceptable backstop. We were told under him removing the backstop was never going to be an option.

    Boris removed Hammonds intransigence to prepare properly and suddenly the backstop was able to be removed. Funny that!
    It was removed because Boris went to Varadkar and said he'd throw away everything he'd been saying a week before and accept the original EU plan, which the EU and the Republic preferred in the first place!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Boris campaign will be ruthless with Corbyn Labour, the May campaign was not and it showed.

    One would hope that "ruthless" would stop short of doctoring film footage.
    Momentum do it frequently
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112


    Any examples? Links to Youtube or Facebook? Or even to descriptions? Most of the post-election commentary praised Labour's 2017 digital operation.

    I was shown some of them by my nephews. They went on to vote Labour. What was most interesting about it was to see the brain-washing in operation; it was extremely effective even with intelligent and well-educated youngsters, albeit highly cynical.

    The kinds of thing that were in the videos were very nasty insinuations about Theresa May and Grenfell, or implying that she took active delight in people committing suicide. Really, really nasty stuff.

    Fortunately youngsters now seem to have become a bit more inured to Corbyn's charms; those I know all seem to be voting LibDem this time.
    Tell them to vote tactically anti-Tory if they live in the ~100-150 marginals, or they'll let in a Nasty Party govt. featuring ministers who want to send the poor to the workhouse (if not 'put them down'). There's very little risk of a Corbyn govt., only a Lab/LD/SNP pact.
    Not sure that mentioning the SNP in a potential pact will play too well in England?
    Didn't help in 2015 iirc
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    The EU originally offered a unilateral exit from any special arrangements for Northern Ireland? When did they originally offer this, or are you making up nonsense because you are too far down the rabbit hole to admit Boris did better than you expected?

    They offered almost exactly what Boris agreed to as their opening offer, with Michel Barnier making a big play about de-dramatising the regulatory requirements. True, at the end they gave Boris a fig-leaf of a theoretical unilateral exit from the NI arrangement, but no-one on this earth, literally no-one, thinks it's an exit which can ever actually happen in practice, so it's not exactly a major concession. The most significant thing from their point of view is that it removes the original backstop, which was so advantageous to us.
    Only in your delusions was the backstop advantageous to us. The people calling for the backstop to be removed was Boris and the Brexiteers not Barnier and the EU. In fact they did quite the opposite.

    Until you are willing to admit that removing the backstop was a victory not failure for a leader elected on a pledge to remove the backstop you just come across as bitter.
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    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Roger said:

    What a piece of work Andrew Bridgen is! Listen to his interview on the 5 o'clock news with Evan Davis explaining how he's a self made man in a mining constituency. A real 18th century cotton baron! That'll get played more than Rees Mogg.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_fourfm

    at 17. 09 why hes born to rule!

    According to wikipedia, he failed to get into the Royal Marines then joined the family business.

    He's Prince Edward.
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    The Boris campaign will be ruthless with Corbyn Labour, the May campaign was not and it showed.

    One would hope that "ruthless" would stop short of doctoring film footage.
    It's worked though, it's been watched by hundreds of thousands. Is it any worse than the Lib Dem fake polls or the Momentum propaganda? It's all shit but it all works to an extent.
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    I’m a lurker usually until election time, but first joined PBc back in the first year or two.

    I can’t help but notice that the election campaign hasn’t even formally started yet, but the level of intemperate vituperation between posters has risen significantly in recent days.

    I fear a number of you won’t make it to the finish line at this rate.

    Please, despite our oft-passionately held convictions, can we remain civil and constructive?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    PClipp said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    That's pretty shit
    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1191732381306277890?s=19
    Original interview is in the next tweet.

    The Boris campaign will be ruthless with Corbyn Labour, the May campaign was not and it showed.
    You call it "ruthless". I call it unprincipled, dishonest, uncivilised. So I suppose we agree, really.
    Corbyn Labour is unprincipled, dishonest and uncivilised, time it got a taste of its own medicine
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    Cookie said:

    DeClare said:

    Boris's home city too really, after all he was elected mayor there twice.

    He was elected as a pro-business pro-EU Mayor.
    My very left-wing sister-in-law who lived in London during his mayoralty finds the criticism of him as an extremist absurd because he was mayor and nothing bad or extreme happened. She's still not going to vote for him - because she's left wing. But an indication that among Londoners, perhaps the characterisation of him as an extremist doesn't stick so easily.
    I think Londoners remember Johnson more for wasting taxpayers' money on assorted vanity projects while not really doing anything useful. Even the embracing of extreme policies like Brexit is I think only for his own personal benefit - I don't think anybody really thinks he believes in anything at all, beyond his own advancement.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Whatever people think of Philip Hammond , he sacrificed his political career to stop a no deal Brexit .

    For that he deserves immense gratitude. Compared to the majority of the Tory party who were spineless lobby fodder .
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Bit of a shocker for Labour in Corbyn's back yard. I expected the Tories to be doing worse in London than elsewhere but that doesn't appear to be the case if this poll is right.
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    As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

    In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

    Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.
    Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

    I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.
    Good riddance to Hammond. He is in part the reason we are in the mess we are in now with his constant refusal to accept the result of the referendum and plan for all contingencies.

    Way back in 2017 he was making it clear in public that he would not fund no deal planning which meant that there was no way the Government could look serious when negotiating with the EU. If you make it clear you are going to surrender from the start then you have no negotiating position.

    He is no loss.
    But you Leavers said No Deal was Project Fear and would never happen because we held all the cards and the EU needed us more than we needed them.

    Why waste money on something that Leave said would never happen?
    Nope you are lying again TSE. Some of us have said all along that every type of Leave was a possibility. Indeed the very fact I was pushing so hard for an EEA Leave was because others were advocating WTO Brexits.

    If you are going to take part in these arguments at least try to avoid telling porkies.
    I'm talking about the Leave campaign, not no marks like you on the internet.
    The difference being that I know I am a nobody and am happy to point it out on here regularly.

    You on the other hand have delusions of grandeur way above your status. I can only assume you type very short replies because you are doing it with only one hand whilst the other encourages your undeserved self worth.
  • Options


    The EU originally offered a unilateral exit from any special arrangements for Northern Ireland? When did they originally offer this, or are you making up nonsense because you are too far down the rabbit hole to admit Boris did better than you expected?

    They offered almost exactly what Boris agreed to as their opening offer, with Michel Barnier making a big play about de-dramatising the regulatory requirements. True, at the end they gave Boris a fig-leaf of a theoretical unilateral exit from the NI arrangement, but no-one on this earth, literally no-one, thinks it's an exit which can ever actually happen in practice, so it's not exactly a major concession. The most significant thing from their point of view is that it removes the original backstop, which was so advantageous to us.
    Only in your delusions was the backstop advantageous to us. The people calling for the backstop to be removed was Boris and the Brexiteers not Barnier and the EU. In fact they did quite the opposite.

    Until you are willing to admit that removing the backstop was a victory not failure for a leader elected on a pledge to remove the backstop you just come across as bitter.

    This is really quite sweet.

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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,836
    AndyJS said:

    Bit of a shocker for Labour in Corbyn's back yard. I expected the Tories to be doing worse in London than elsewhere but that doesn't appear to be the case if this poll is right.

    In absolute terms, the Tories are doing badly. This is their smallest London vote shares since 2001. It's just that the Conservative vote is much more efficiently distributed now.
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    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    AndyJS said:

    Bit of a shocker for Labour in Corbyn's back yard. I expected the Tories to be doing worse in London than elsewhere but that doesn't appear to be the case if this poll is right.

    I suspect many Londoners have pleasant memories of his mayoralty - I certainly do. Home city boost for Boris blunting Labour's edge?
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    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    That's pretty shit

    https://twitter.com/BBCDanielS/status/1191732381306277890?s=19

    Original interview is in the next tweet.

    The Boris campaign will be ruthless with Corbyn Labour, the May campaign was not and it showed.

    You can't have a debate if you do not have a common standard for honesty and truth. Democracy becomes impossible.

    Yes, all sides are guilty of this to one extent or another at various times, but we have to fix it together or we all suffer.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    midwinter said:


    Any examples? Links to Youtube or Facebook? Or even to descriptions? Most of the post-election commentary praised Labour's 2017 digital operation.

    I was shown some of them by my nephews. They went on to vote Labour. What was most interesting about it was to see the brain-washing in operation; it was extremely effective even with intelligent and well-educated youngsters, albeit highly cynical.

    The kinds of thing that were in the videos were very nasty insinuations about Theresa May and Grenfell, or implying that she took active delight in people committing suicide. Really, really nasty stuff.

    Fortunately youngsters now seem to have become a bit more inured to Corbyn's charms; those I know all seem to be voting LibDem this time.
    Tell them to vote tactically anti-Tory if they live in the ~100-150 marginals, or they'll let in a Nasty Party govt. featuring ministers who want to send the poor to the workhouse (if not 'put them down'). There's very little risk of a Corbyn govt., only a Lab/LD/SNP pact.
    Not sure that mentioning the SNP in a potential pact will play too well in England?
    Didn't help in 2015 iirc
    However, that may have been at the time of 'Chaos with Ed Miliband' and before 'Strong and Stable' became seen as rather Weak and Wobbly

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit/ed-miliband-changes-his-twitter-name-to-mock-chaos-in-the-tory-party-501375
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    AndyJS said:

    Bit of a shocker for Labour in Corbyn's back yard. I expected the Tories to be doing worse in London than elsewhere but that doesn't appear to be the case if this poll is right.

    According to Roger and several others on here Labour are making all the running and everyone hates the Tories already. Go figure. Of course the polls may tighten.... or they may not. The level of hysteria from some posters is ridiculous at this stage.
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    I’m a lurker usually until election time, but first joined PBc back in the first year or two.

    I can’t help but notice that the election campaign hasn’t even formally started yet, but the level of intemperate vituperation between posters has risen significantly in recent days.

    I fear a number of you won’t make it to the finish line at this rate.

    Please, despite our oft-passionately held convictions, can we remain civil and constructive?

    +1
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    As for Boris, Brexit was only going to be fine because Boris and his team massively ramped up no deal Brexit preparations which Hammond had neglected.

    In other words, even in the view of the most demented Leavers, there was still time to make the preparations. So there can by definition not have been any 'neglect'.

    Phil Hammond is a huge, huge loss to the party. I'm struggling to think of anything even remotely similar in half a century: from highly respected Chancellor to a pariah in his own party, of which he'd been a member for 45 years, in a matter of weeks.
    Ken Clarke was treated similarly. From working for Ted Heath, to high office, to almost becoming PM, to this.

    I'm sorry that he didn't stand once again.
    Good riddance to Hammond. He is in part the reason we are in the mess we are in now with his constant refusal to accept the result of the referendum and plan for all contingencies.

    Way back in 2017 he was making it clear in public that he would not fund no deal planning which meant that there was no way the Government could look serious when negotiating with the EU. If you make it clear you are going to surrender from the start then you have no negotiating position.

    He is no loss.
    But you Leavers said No Deal was Project Fear and would never happen because we held all the cards and the EU needed us more than we needed them.

    Why waste money on something that Leave said would never happen?
    Nope you are lying again TSE. Some of us have said all along that every type of Leave was a possibility. Indeed the very fact I was pushing so hard for an EEA Leave was because others were advocating WTO Brexits.

    If you are going to take part in these arguments at least try to avoid telling porkies.
    I'm talking about the Leave campaign, not no marks like you on the internet.
    The difference being that I know I am a nobody and am happy to point it out on here regularly.

    You on the other hand have delusions of grandeur way above your status. I can only assume you type very short replies because you are doing it with only one hand whilst the other encourages your undeserved self worth.
    I'm a modest man with a great deal to be modest about.
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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Anyone can make a deal if they ditch their red lines . Bozo capitulated because he was desperate to meet his stupid pledge , threw the DUP under a bus and then was paraded as a hero by the right wing press .

    If May had cut his deal she would have been trashed by the ERG and the same press . May cared about the Union for all her faults . All Bozo cares about is himself .

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    edited November 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Bit of a shocker for Labour in Corbyn's back yard. I expected the Tories to be doing worse in London than elsewhere but that doesn't appear to be the case if this poll is right.

    Much like 2005 the Tories will gain seats from Labour in London mainly due to a LD surge
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    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    RobD said:

    Roger said:

    Not a great news day for the Tories. first J R_M reminds us why they're the nasty party then they hold back a report on Russia reminding us they're also the sleazy party

    They’ve had a suboptimal start to the campaign, most certainly.
    Eerily reminiscent of 2017. The Tories fire the starting gun, then are nowhere to be seen.
    Their launch is tomorrow.
    Fair enough but in the days between the HoC voting for an election and tomorrow, they've let Labour build up a head of steam. Again.
    I'm not actually sure about this one. What exactly have Labour achieved in a week that the Tories seem to have taken off as a pre-election holiday? They've whined about the NHS and reminded everyone of what a mess their Brexit "policy" is. The few points they've recovered from LDs / Greens / whoever seem to be more of a Pavlovian reaction to an FPTP election being called than anything else.
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    Changing the discussion Richard. Poor show. Clearly because you have no answer for the main point which is that Hammond did all he could to hinder Brexit negotiations whilst Chancellor.

    How can I have an answer to a point which is unmitigated garbage? When he was in government we had a very successful Brexit negotiation and would have left the EU on March 29th, if the nuttier leavers, chancers and a well-known careerist hadn't torpedoed things.
    We got a terrible deal with an unacceptable backstop. We were told under him removing the backstop was never going to be an option.

    Boris removed Hammonds intransigence to prepare properly and suddenly the backstop was able to be removed. Funny that!
    It was removed because Boris went to Varadkar and said he'd throw away everything he'd been saying a week before and accept the original EU plan, which the EU and the Republic preferred in the first place!
    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited November 2019


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
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    Mr. Wiggs, indeed.

    Mr. Tyndall, it's better to play the ball than the man. I was just about to remonstrate Mr. Eagles (not least for the logical fallacy of getting in a retaliation first) and you go and prove him right.

    Mr. 67, May brought her deal to the Commons repeatedly. They had every chance to back it, either with or without a referendum amendment.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    edited November 2019
    Cookie said:

    My very left-wing sister-in-law who lived in London during his mayoralty finds the criticism of him as an extremist absurd because he was mayor and nothing bad or extreme happened. She's still not going to vote for him - because she's left wing. But an indication that among Londoners, perhaps the characterisation of him as an extremist doesn't stick so easily.

    Boris Johnson is no extremist. There is no evidence for that whatsoever. The problem is a total absence of principle, either political or personal. He believes in nothing other than the promotion of brand Boris Johnson. I hate it, personally, the idea of a PM with no real sense of public service, but perhaps it doesn't matter so very much if what is good for him happens to also be good for the country. But I'm not convinced of this either. So all told, I am unlikely to vote Con this time.
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    I’m a lurker usually until election time, but first joined PBc back in the first year or two.

    I can’t help but notice that the election campaign hasn’t even formally started yet, but the level of intemperate vituperation between posters has risen significantly in recent days.

    I fear a number of you won’t make it to the finish line at this rate.

    Please, despite our oft-passionately held convictions, can we remain civil and constructive?

    +1
    I find that reciting the first lines of 'A Tale of Two Cities' is very useful in providing perspective and calming the temper. 'It was the best of times....etc'

    They could have been written for today. What a towering genius Dickens was.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,989
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    My very left-wing sister-in-law who lived in London during his mayoralty finds the criticism of him as an extremist absurd because he was mayor and nothing bad or extreme happened. She's still not going to vote for him - because she's left wing. But an indication that among Londoners, perhaps the characterisation of him as an extremist doesn't stick so easily.

    Boris Johnson is no extremist. There is no evidence for that whatsoever. The problem is a total absence of principle, either political or personal. He believes in nothing other than the promotion of brand Boris Johnson. I hate it, personally, the idea of a PM with no real sense of public service, but perhaps it doesn't matter so very much if what is good for him happens to also be good for the country. But I'm not convinced of this either. So all told, I am unlikely to vote Con this time.
    When do you ever vote Tory anyway?
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited November 2019


    The EU originally offered a unilateral exit from any special arrangements for Northern Ireland? When did they originally offer this, or are you making up nonsense because you are too far down the rabbit hole to admit Boris did better than you expected?

    They offered almost exactly what Boris agreed to as their opening offer, with Michel Barnier making a big play about de-dramatising the regulatory requirements. True, at the end they gave Boris a fig-leaf of a theoretical unilateral exit from the NI arrangement, but no-one on this earth, literally no-one, thinks it's an exit which can ever actually happen in practice, so it's not exactly a major concession. The most significant thing from their point of view is that it removes the original backstop, which was so advantageous to us.
    Only in your delusions was the backstop advantageous to us. The people calling for the backstop to be removed was Boris and the Brexiteers not Barnier and the EU. In fact they did quite the opposite.

    Until you are willing to admit that removing the backstop was a victory not failure for a leader elected on a pledge to remove the backstop you just come across as bitter.

    This is really quite sweet.

    The EU “conceded” by agreeing to remove the U.K. wide provision which the U.K. had insisted upon and won after lengthy negotiation (for free!) when the EU had only ever insisted on arrangements specific to Northern Ireland. Bargain!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Do we have an ETA on YouGov's model? :D
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    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    I apologise.

    I may have gotten a bit heated there considering I believe you used the word delusional earlier so I'm sorry I said that.

    Let me rephrase. I do not recall there being a unilateral exit in the original EU plan. Either you or I must be mistaken can you please point out where the unilateral exit was in the EU's original plan or is this deal different to it?
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    RobD said:

    Do we have an ETA on YouGov's model? :D

    Yes! On this Thread!
    NeilVW said:

    Apologies if already covered, but I asked YouGov when they planned to release their MRP model for the GE, and they said two weeks before polling day, but this was subject to change.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    RobD said:

    Do we have an ETA on YouGov's model? :D

    Yes! On this Thread!
    NeilVW said:

    Apologies if already covered, but I asked YouGov when they planned to release their MRP model for the GE, and they said two weeks before polling day, but this was subject to change.

    Thanks! Not sure I can wait four more weeks.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,401
    edited November 2019
    RobD said:

    Do we have an ETA on YouGov's model? :D

    Chris Curtis of YouGov said to me that the MRP only works properly once all the candidates standing are known.

    The SOPN is published a week on Friday, so I'd expect a MRP probably the week beginning the 26th of November.
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    blueblue said:

    I'm not actually sure about this one. What exactly have Labour achieved in a week that the Tories seem to have taken off as a pre-election holiday? They've whined about the NHS and reminded everyone of what a mess their Brexit "policy" is. The few points they've recovered from LDs / Greens / whoever seem to be more of a Pavlovian reaction to an FPTP election being called than anything else.

    I think they might have opened up a chink for the Tories, and perhaps the LibDems, to attack them on the NHS. I'm referring to their stated policy of wanting to bring all NHS provision in house. Currently around 6% of elective surgery is sub-contracted by the NHS to private hospitals, and some of those at least have a very good reputation. For example, in my area the Horder Centre is widely used for things like hip replacements, and is reckoned to be really good. A lot of people will either have been treated in such hospitals, or will have friends and relatives who have. A well-targeted and well-researched campaign saying that 'Labour want to shut XXX', where XXX is a well-regarded local facility like that, might be quite effective, if the Conservatives get it right.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,979
    A jolly good evening to all my PB Tory friends!
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    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    I apologise.

    I may have gotten a bit heated there considering I believe you used the word delusional earlier so I'm sorry I said that.

    Let me rephrase. I do not recall there being a unilateral exit in the original EU plan. Either you or I must be mistaken can you please point out where the unilateral exit was in the EU's original plan or is this deal different to it?
    Apology accepted.

    I've already addressed that point - yes, you are right that there wasn't a unilateral exit, but the broad point stands, that in structure this is the original EU proposal for handling the Irish issue. The unilateral exit has been added as a fig-leaf to help get the deal; it's purely theoretical, so not a big concession.
  • Options
    Thanks to @AaronBell4NUL, Conservative candidate for #NewcastleUnderLyme, for signing our new pledge.

    ✔️#BackBoris’ deal to #GetBrexitDone

    ✔️Back ‘No Deal’ if Withdrawal Agreement still not approved by 31st January

    #StandUp4Brexit https://t.co/OSyMB3P65s
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    edited November 2019

    blueblue said:

    I'm not actually sure about this one. What exactly have Labour achieved in a week that the Tories seem to have taken off as a pre-election holiday? They've whined about the NHS and reminded everyone of what a mess their Brexit "policy" is. The few points they've recovered from LDs / Greens / whoever seem to be more of a Pavlovian reaction to an FPTP election being called than anything else.

    I think they might have opened up a chink for the Tories, and perhaps the LibDems, to attack them on the NHS. I'm referring to their stated policy of wanting to bring all NHS provision in house. Currently around 6% of elective surgery is sub-contracted by the NHS to private hospitals, and some of those at least have a very good reputation. For example, in my area the Horder Centre is widely used for things like hip replacements, and is reckoned to be really good. A lot of people will either have been treated in such hospitals, or will have friends and relatives who have. A well-targeted and well-researched campaign saying that 'Labour want to shut XXX', where XXX is a well-regarded local facility like that, might be quite effective, if the Conservatives get it right.
    And what about things like MRI scans etc? Often done by private units based in NHS hospitals. Are they going to confiscate the machines?

    Of course GP practices are, and remain, independent operations...

  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    HYUFD said:

    When do you ever vote Tory anyway?

    I could be persuaded with the right leader and policy platform. David Gauke, say, and a manifesto which promises a full-on assault on all forms of privilege and vested interest.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Twigg on his valedictory. Seems two minutes ago he was grinning in disbelief as portillo bowed out!
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,979
    What’s the feeling on the retail offers?

    Labour likely to go for the four-day week?

    Tories likely to go for the £80k higher rate threshold?

    (The latter would put £500 a month in my pocket - which would at least lessen the blow of a Bunter majority)
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,979

    Thanks to @AaronBell4NUL, Conservative candidate for #NewcastleUnderLyme, for signing our new pledge.

    ✔️#BackBoris’ deal to #GetBrexitDone

    ✔️Back ‘No Deal’ if Withdrawal Agreement still not approved by 31st January

    #StandUp4Brexit https://t.co/OSyMB3P65s

    What an idiot. No deal is just stupidity of the highest order.
  • Options
    There are people in all parties who should be kept well away from the airwaves during campaigns - for balance I would place folk like Abbott, Farron and Bridgen in that category.

  • Options
    alex. said:

    blueblue said:

    I'm not actually sure about this one. What exactly have Labour achieved in a week that the Tories seem to have taken off as a pre-election holiday? They've whined about the NHS and reminded everyone of what a mess their Brexit "policy" is. The few points they've recovered from LDs / Greens / whoever seem to be more of a Pavlovian reaction to an FPTP election being called than anything else.

    I think they might have opened up a chink for the Tories, and perhaps the LibDems, to attack them on the NHS. I'm referring to their stated policy of wanting to bring all NHS provision in house. Currently around 6% of elective surgery is sub-contracted by the NHS to private hospitals, and some of those at least have a very good reputation. For example, in my area the Horder Centre is widely used for things like hip replacements, and is reckoned to be really good. A lot of people will either have been treated in such hospitals, or will have friends and relatives who have. A well-targeted and well-researched campaign saying that 'Labour want to shut XXX', where XXX is a well-regarded local facility like that, might be quite effective, if the Conservatives get it right.
    And what about things like MRI scans etc? Often done by private units based in NHS hospitals. Are they going to confiscate the machines?

    Oh, absolutely, but for political purposes those are less useful because they are not named, recognisable facilities to which people won't have access under Labour's plan.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,979

    Twigg on his valedictory. Seems two minutes ago he was grinning in disbelief as portillo bowed out!

    Yup. Time flies.
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    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

  • Options


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
  • Options

    Thanks to @AaronBell4NUL, Conservative candidate for #NewcastleUnderLyme, for signing our new pledge.

    ✔️#BackBoris’ deal to #GetBrexitDone

    ✔️Back ‘No Deal’ if Withdrawal Agreement still not approved by 31st January

    #StandUp4Brexit https://t.co/OSyMB3P65s

    What an idiot. No deal is just stupidity of the highest order.
    I understand conservative mps signing the pledge will not have a TBP candidate standing in their seats

    And he is a fellow poster on PB
  • Options
    And people wonder why ex-Tories like me thing the party has been taken over by fuckwits! You really could not make it up! The only reason Labour isn't 20 points ahead is because they have chosen an even more cretinous individual to lead them!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,660
    edited November 2019

    blueblue said:

    I'm not actually sure about this one. What exactly have Labour achieved in a week that the Tories seem to have taken off as a pre-election holiday? They've whined about the NHS and reminded everyone of what a mess their Brexit "policy" is. The few points they've recovered from LDs / Greens / whoever seem to be more of a Pavlovian reaction to an FPTP election being called than anything else.

    I think they might have opened up a chink for the Tories, and perhaps the LibDems, to attack them on the NHS. I'm referring to their stated policy of wanting to bring all NHS provision in house. Currently around 6% of elective surgery is sub-contracted by the NHS to private hospitals, and some of those at least have a very good reputation. For example, in my area the Horder Centre is widely used for things like hip replacements, and is reckoned to be really good. A lot of people will either have been treated in such hospitals, or will have friends and relatives who have. A well-targeted and well-researched campaign saying that 'Labour want to shut XXX', where XXX is a well-regarded local facility like that, might be quite effective, if the Conservatives get it right.
    Wishful thinking I think. Most people will see that wanting to bring services in-house ≠ wanting to shut services down.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
  • Options
    XtrainXtrain Posts: 338
    Apologies if this has been posted before but it convinced me that Boris's deal is far better than May's.
    https://briefingsforbrexit.com/this-flawed-deal-is-a-tolerable-price-to-pay-for-our-freedom/
  • Options

    Thanks to @AaronBell4NUL, Conservative candidate for #NewcastleUnderLyme, for signing our new pledge.

    ✔️#BackBoris’ deal to #GetBrexitDone

    ✔️Back ‘No Deal’ if Withdrawal Agreement still not approved by 31st January

    #StandUp4Brexit https://t.co/OSyMB3P65s

    What an idiot. No deal is just stupidity of the highest order.
    I understand conservative mps signing the pledge will not have a TBP candidate standing in their seats

    And he is a fellow poster on PB
    He might get into trouble:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/05/dont-sign-pledges-on-nhs-or-climate-tory-hq-tells-candidates

  • Options
    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038


    Any examples? Links to Youtube or Facebook? Or even to descriptions? Most of the post-election commentary praised Labour's 2017 digital operation.

    I was shown some of them by my nephews. They went on to vote Labour. What was most interesting about it was to see the brain-washing in operation; it was extremely effective even with intelligent and well-educated youngsters, albeit highly cynical.

    The kinds of thing that were in the videos were very nasty insinuations about Theresa May and Grenfell, or implying that she took active delight in people committing suicide. Really, really nasty stuff.

    Fortunately youngsters now seem to have become a bit more inured to Corbyn's charms; those I know all seem to be voting LibDem this time.
    Tell them to vote tactically anti-Tory if they live in the ~100-150 marginals, or they'll let in a Nasty Party govt. featuring ministers who want to send the poor to the workhouse (if not 'put them down'). There's very little risk of a Corbyn govt., only a Lab/LD/SNP pact.
    No-one of integrity should vote Labour for as long as it is run by anti-Semitic, terrorist-supporting, economy-destroying Corbyn.
    The current PM said F*** Business. Brexit is for life, not just for Xmas. A govt's only for 4-5 years.

    The chances of a Labour majority are about zero. The betting odds are probably ~50, i.e. highly improbable. Any Corbyn victory would be neutered by the SDP wing. Unlike the rather striking cull of One-Nation Tories, there hasn't been a similar cull of the Labour right incl Benn or Cooper although some who were probably always more at home in a Centre Party have ended up as L.Dems.
  • Options


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
    Ms Swinson has been doing an excellent job trying to dissuade me from voting LibDem.
  • Options
    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    midwinter said:


    Any examples? Links to Youtube or Facebook? Or even to descriptions? Most of the post-election commentary praised Labour's 2017 digital operation.

    I was shown some of them by my nephews. They went on to vote Labour. What was most interesting about it was to see the brain-washing in operation; it was extremely effective even with intelligent and well-educated youngsters, albeit highly cynical.

    The kinds of thing that were in the videos were very nasty insinuations about Theresa May and Grenfell, or implying that she took active delight in people committing suicide. Really, really nasty stuff.

    Fortunately youngsters now seem to have become a bit more inured to Corbyn's charms; those I know all seem to be voting LibDem this time.
    Tell them to vote tactically anti-Tory if they live in the ~100-150 marginals, or they'll let in a Nasty Party govt. featuring ministers who want to send the poor to the workhouse (if not 'put them down'). There's very little risk of a Corbyn govt., only a Lab/LD/SNP pact.
    Not sure that mentioning the SNP in a potential pact will play too well in England?
    Didn't help in 2015 iirc
    However, that may have been at the time of 'Chaos with Ed Miliband' and before 'Strong and Stable' became seen as rather Weak and Wobbly

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/brexit/ed-miliband-changes-his-twitter-name-to-mock-chaos-in-the-tory-party-501375
    Let's see. Personally I can't see a Corbyn/Sturgeon (or whoever) alliance being overly popular with English voters outside metroland but I may be wrong.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,891
    edited November 2019
    Gabs2 said:

    Have we ever had an election with a former Chancellor, former Home Secretary and former Foreign Secretary all stepped down?

    Two former Chancellors.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962

    Thanks to @AaronBell4NUL, Conservative candidate for #NewcastleUnderLyme, for signing our new pledge.

    ✔️#BackBoris’ deal to #GetBrexitDone

    ✔️Back ‘No Deal’ if Withdrawal Agreement still not approved by 31st January

    #StandUp4Brexit https://t.co/OSyMB3P65s

    What an idiot. No deal is just stupidity of the highest order.
    I understand conservative mps signing the pledge will not have a TBP candidate standing in their seats

    And he is a fellow poster on PB
    He might get into trouble:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/05/dont-sign-pledges-on-nhs-or-climate-tory-hq-tells-candidates

    Doesn't look like it. That says that such a pledge is "unnecessary", implying they are doing it anyway.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,754


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
    Ms Swinson has been doing an excellent job trying to dissuade me from voting LibDem.
    snap

    the nanny knows best approach just makes me switch off
  • Options
    That Bridgen interview is extraordinary. The deference he shows to Rees Moog boils down to the cringe so many Brits have when confronted with a crisp, home counties accent. The assumption that well-spoken equals smart has caused the UK so much trouble over the years and continues to do so.
  • Options


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
    Ms Swinson has been doing an excellent job trying to dissuade me from voting LibDem.
    How so, she seems to be doing OK form this ex-Tory's perspective. A little lightweight so far, but no more so than the alternatives.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
    Ms Swinson has been doing an excellent job trying to dissuade me from voting LibDem.
    She's a little difficult to warm to.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,979
    edited November 2019

    Thanks to @AaronBell4NUL, Conservative candidate for #NewcastleUnderLyme, for signing our new pledge.

    ✔️#BackBoris’ deal to #GetBrexitDone

    ✔️Back ‘No Deal’ if Withdrawal Agreement still not approved by 31st January

    #StandUp4Brexit https://t.co/OSyMB3P65s

    What an idiot. No deal is just stupidity of the highest order.
    I understand conservative mps signing the pledge will not have a TBP candidate standing in their seats

    And he is a fellow poster on PB
    It’s a stupid pledge and the act of an idiot. Whether he posts on here is immaterial.

    (He is however a ‘multiple screen namer’ - a noble calling albeit one that was frowned upon by some PBers in times past)
  • Options
    Xtrain said:

    Apologies if this has been posted before but it convinced me that Boris's deal is far better than May's.
    https://briefingsforbrexit.com/this-flawed-deal-is-a-tolerable-price-to-pay-for-our-freedom/

    They lost me about a sentence in at the phrase "vassal-state". Not much point in reading the rest...
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,260
    edited November 2019
    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.
  • Options
    XtrainXtrain Posts: 338

    And people wonder why ex-Tories like me thing the party has been taken over by fuckwits! You really could not make it up! The only reason Labour isn't 20 points ahead is because they have chosen an even more cretinous individual to lead them!
    No this is a non event being inflated by media and opponents that will be forgotten in a couple of days time.
    It's the kind of thing that makes me wish I could hibernate until election day.
  • Options
    Xtrain said:

    Apologies if this has been posted before but it convinced me that Boris's deal is far better than May's.
    https://briefingsforbrexit.com/this-flawed-deal-is-a-tolerable-price-to-pay-for-our-freedom/

    That looks like a very balanced and neutral analysis 😂 😂 😂 . Have you heard, they have removed the word "gullible" from the dictionary?
  • Options

    twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1191772096915001344

    And people wonder why ex-Tories like me thing the party has been taken over by fuckwits! You really could not make it up! The only reason Labour isn't 20 points ahead is because they have chosen an even more cretinous individual to lead them!
    Bear in mind that this stupid plan to hand Boris a majority was kicked off by the Lib Dems. They should have sat on their hands until January and let Boris stew.
  • Options
    XtrainXtrain Posts: 338

    Thanks to @AaronBell4NUL, Conservative candidate for #NewcastleUnderLyme, for signing our new pledge.

    ✔️#BackBoris’ deal to #GetBrexitDone

    ✔️Back ‘No Deal’ if Withdrawal Agreement still not approved by 31st January

    #StandUp4Brexit https://t.co/OSyMB3P65s

    What an idiot. No deal is just stupidity of the highest order.
    I understand conservative mps signing the pledge will not have a TBP candidate standing in their seats

    And he is a fellow poster on PB
    He might get into trouble:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/05/dont-sign-pledges-on-nhs-or-climate-tory-hq-tells-candidates

    What will they do remove the whip?
  • Options
    ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 4,971

    Xtrain said:

    Apologies if this has been posted before but it convinced me that Boris's deal is far better than May's.
    https://briefingsforbrexit.com/this-flawed-deal-is-a-tolerable-price-to-pay-for-our-freedom/

    They lost me about a sentence in at the phrase "vassal-state". Not much point in reading the rest...
    That kind of thing is very useful. Saves us all a lot of time.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,979

    That Bridgen interview is extraordinary. The deference he shows to Rees Moog boils down to the cringe so many Brits have when confronted with a crisp, home counties accent. The assumption that well-spoken equals smart has caused the UK so much trouble over the years and continues to do so.

    Indeed so. Cap-doffing is a rather disturbing trait.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,401
    edited November 2019
    Sounds like an SNP voter.

    Scottish man gets a rocket from health and safety chiefs after injuring himself launching a firework from his BOTTOM

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7649797/Scottish-man-filmed-launching-firework-BOTTOM.html

    PS - Am I doing this clickbait malarkey right?
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

  • Options
    blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    Twigg on his valedictory. Seems two minutes ago he was grinning in disbelief as portillo bowed out!

    Up at Balliol with Boris, wasn't he?
  • Options
    Xtrain said:

    And people wonder why ex-Tories like me thing the party has been taken over by fuckwits! You really could not make it up! The only reason Labour isn't 20 points ahead is because they have chosen an even more cretinous individual to lead them!
    No this is a non event being inflated by media and opponents that will be forgotten in a couple of days time.
    It's the kind of thing that makes me wish I could hibernate until election day.
    It is not a non-event when it seems to illustrate perfectly what used to be regarded as parodies of Tory politicians. The parodies are now real. This idiot and Rees-Mogg are the new face of the Conservative In Name Only Party
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Bristol trust launches ‘red card’ scheme to deal with racist abuse from patients"

    https://rcni.com/nursing-standard/newsroom/news/bristol-trust-launches-red-card-scheme-to-deal-racist-abuse-patients-154746
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,660
    Xtrain said:

    And people wonder why ex-Tories like me thing the party has been taken over by fuckwits! You really could not make it up! The only reason Labour isn't 20 points ahead is because they have chosen an even more cretinous individual to lead them!
    No this is a non event being inflated by media and opponents that will be forgotten in a couple of days time.
    It's the kind of thing that makes me wish I could hibernate until election day.
    What will hurt any party's chances is if there is a drip, drip, drip of this kind of stupidity.

    For what it's worth (not much) I think the Tories have the largest stock of drips.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
    Ms Swinson has been doing an excellent job trying to dissuade me from voting LibDem.
    Do you want me to send you some LibDem leaflets that I have surplus to requirements ?

    They may do the trick.
  • Options

    How so, she seems to be doing OK form this ex-Tory's perspective. A little lightweight so far, but no more so than the alternatives.

    It's things like:

    - Trying to tack votes for children and votes for foreigners onto an election scheduled for a few weeks' time. I'm against both, but could live with those as policies to at least consider, but it strikes me as mad to try to introduce them with zero thought as an amendment to a bill setting a date for an election - or, worse, as gerrymandering.

    - Then the utter silliness about the 9th December vs the 12th December. I mean, that's the kind of childishness I expect from the SNP, not from a party seriously wanting my vote.

    - And then they even managed to vote against the election which a couple of days earlier they'd asked for. She should leave that sort of loony inconsistency to Labour, who have that market sewn up.

    - And then the utterly bonkers whinge that she was excluded from the TV debates because of sexism. The LibDems just about might have had a very weak case for wanting to be included, and certainly I would expect them to say they should be included, but blaming it on sexism is barmy.
  • Options


    More lies. Where was the unilateral exit in the original plan?

    I don't engage with people who falsely accuse me of lying.
    do you engage with people who correctly accuse you of lying ? :-)

    If I can find any, yes of course.
    I believe youre voting LD so shouldnt be a log wait :smiley:
    Ms Swinson has been doing an excellent job trying to dissuade me from voting LibDem.
    snap

    the nanny knows best approach just makes me switch off
    So which approach does turns you on, Alan - the lying charlatan, or the anti-semitic marxist maybe?
  • Options
    "I don't think that this is a realistic approach"

    Jean-Claude Juncker says he doesn't think it’s realistic for Jeremy Corbyn to negotiate a new Brexit deal if Labour wins the election, but says it’d be a decision for the incoming EC president

    https://t.co/s8AVIRRXNV https://t.co/mTzcqMVc5P
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    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    It's not the big tent politics that the defenders of FPTP tell us it creates. A whole section of the Tory party has now been expunged.

    It's massively more ideological and dramatic than anything that's happened within Labour, despite all the excited media commentary about the potential for deselections.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,660
    edited November 2019

    Sounds like an SNP voter.

    Scottish man gets a rocket from health and safety chiefs after injuring himself launching a firework from his BOTTOM

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7649797/Scottish-man-filmed-launching-firework-BOTTOM.html

    PS - Am I doing this clickbait malarkey right?

    I cannot use the daily mail site as I find the jumble of overlapping, bouncing, scrolling ads a total distraction.

    Not even going to try any more. What are the web designers (and the advertisers) thinking?!
  • Options
    NooNoo Posts: 2,380
    Which of England's world cup winning rugbyists are going to get New Year's honours do we think?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,260

    DavidL said:

    Philip Hammond facing the inevitability of oblivion today. It is startling to add up what happened to the cabinet May chose to negotiate Brexit. Damien Green, David Lidington, Philip Hammond, Amber Rudd, Justine Greening, David Gauke, no doubt others. It is an incredible changing of the guard and it is hard not to conclude that when May had control exactly the same thing could have happened to the ERG loons who made her life such a misery, if only she had had the courage to take them on.

    Boris got a lot of flak for excluding the 21 from the party but there is no question that the next Tory party, whether in government or out of it, is going to be more cohesive and reliable in its voting.

    I am not sure about that. It will certainly be a lot more right wing, which makes any further Johnson climbdowns in the ongoing negotiations with the EU very tricky indeed. How many would tolerate Johnson reneging on his promise not to extend the transition period, for example?

    I see 3 possible scenarios at the moment. The central one is that Boris wins a modest majority on the back of his deal. The deal goes through the Commons. The second possibility is that Boris wins massively. I still think he does the deal but the risk of some self indulgent nonsense based on no deal or (more likely) an extreme position taken during the transition is a possibility. The third possibility is that he does not get a majority in which case Brexit is dead.
  • Options

    Xtrain said:

    Apologies if this has been posted before but it convinced me that Boris's deal is far better than May's.
    https://briefingsforbrexit.com/this-flawed-deal-is-a-tolerable-price-to-pay-for-our-freedom/

    They lost me about a sentence in at the phrase "vassal-state". Not much point in reading the rest...
    That kind of thing is very useful. Saves us all a lot of time.
    :D

    Yes indeed.
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