Do they have to reveal constituency polls if they don't like the result ?
I had the cynical thought that there might be multiple high MOE polls being done in these constituencies with only the one with the most useful result being released.
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.
Most slogans are shit. But a good slogan is gold dust. Cummings understands this.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
Gavin Shuker: the moderates in the Labour Party have lost.
Well of course they have. Everyone is having to get behind Corbyn again or face a Tory majority, and if it works he's untouchable again, and if it doesn't they'll probably be blamed by the membership for not backing him enough.
Now up to 70 MPs standing down voluntarily + 3 kicked out by Labour + Bercow and Mann.
Could easily see 150 new MPs in the new parliament (although a few may be retreads)
I see from Guido that Mims Davies having stood down in Eastleigh is now on the Tory shortlist for Mid Sussex. Bit of a strange move as Eastleigh was a lot more leavery than Mid Sussex (although Eastleigh has had more of a threat traditionally from the Lib Dems)
Very odd indeed. I had the Conservatives as very likely to hold Eastleigh if Davies had stayed and assumed she was leaving parliament altogether. Without her the LD chances rose substantially. I am still not sure as local and GE results in Eastleigh have been utterly disconnected, but it must have risen several places up the LD hit list (aided by leaflets about the Davies 'chicken run').
I think you will find she is staying to fight the seat
And if she does after the fiasco of 'now you see me going, now you don't', she will be more damaged than a new candidate. All the LDs need do is put out material with the headlines from 3 consecutive stories; "I am leaving" "Mid Sussex short list Mims Davies" "I have changed my mind and am staying" She looks a complete fool.
Do they have to reveal constituency polls if they don't like the result ?
I had the cynical thought that there might be multiple high MOE polls being done in these constituencies with only the one with the most useful result being released.
Watson departing is the biggest event of this election campaign so far - and by miles.
Much that watson is a disgrace over his behaviour over the past few years, its more evidence the PLP post GE is going to have bugger all moderates in positions of power.
Watson is not a disgrace, even though he made some big mistakes. Without him being the only MP with the guts to raise child abuse we would not have heard about Thatcher being briefed on Morrison and then promoting him, ex-Chief Constable Mick Creedon being ordered not to arrest Janner or ex-DCI Clive Driscoll being taken off the Islington investigation for wanting to interview Paul Boateng.
The disgrace is the cover up of these cases which has been exposed.
Excellent, my first political pre-roll ad on youtube. Granted it was just 30 second of trying to sell 'For the many not the few' t-shirts, but there was a 'JC4PM' tag just to make it clear.
Maybe Libdems are piling up a lot of wasted votes in second place, should help them for next time.
Next time is next year.
45% chance of slim Tory majority which won't survive extension of transition next June. 55% chance of Labour minority government (100 short of a majority) that survives nine months of 2nd referendum and then collapses.
Election in 2020 nailed on. With LDs in 2nd place all over the place.
EDIT: Although apparently we're getting a daily YouGov again?
Yougovs are going to swamp the polling narrative, really tedious.
I think the problem with you gov is they get the mid term elections spot on when voters have made up their minds, and have no issue telling you. Lib Dem’s and BP had votes in the can weeks before the Euros for example. But yougov system breaks in GE when voters aren’t so honest with them. I don’t want to come over all Freud, but ITN vox popping in Sunderland today, it was clear what coy voters were going to do, but they won’t admit it till voting day.
Vox pops are a waste of time and so are the broadcasters bus tours seeking opinion.
By the nature of the rules they have to find balance and it makes the whole exercise pointless
I love them. I don’t want to out myself as Dominic Cummings but love reading ordinary people’s faces and I always ask people why? Because the answer they gave you, you see, isn’t the answer. From the answer to why you know the answer.
I stand by everything I say about you gov. People go protesting mid term. Gravitate back to tribe for GE, but cagily if tribe an embarrassment.
Maybe Libdems are piling up a lot of wasted votes in second place, should help them for next time.
Next time is next year.
45% chance of slim Tory majority which won't survive extension of transition next June. 55% chance of Labour minority government (100 short of a majority) that survives nine months of 2nd referendum and then collapses.
Election in 2020 nailed on. With LDs in 2nd place all over the place.
I thought the end of the transition was at the end of the year?
He's been quite odious since returning to parliament, when apparently prior to his 2015 loss he was not, but in one respect it's good he is standing as an indy to test his support (theoretically, maybe it's about the payment), and because it can be downright sad when someone is kicked out of a party and still licks its boots.
Though the only person he cc'd was the great Jezza, whom he declares loyalty to, so it is still a bit sad. Why does he think Corbyn has not saved him somehow?
My God. That letter. He went there.
With every attempt they make to prove they aren't anti-Semitic, Labour under Corbyn just look more creepily anti-Semitic. Like the Tories over Grenfell trying to prove they are not snobs.
What a delightful election.
Great news that Williamson is definitely out of the Commons whatever happens.
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.
Most slogans are shit. But a good slogan is gold dust. Cummings understands this.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
Either Labour or the Lib Dems should go for a federal UK approach with an English parliament. Slogan “It’s England’s Turn” or something similar.
Blimey. I leave the computer for a few hours and when I check to see if there's any news I discover Tom Watson is toast. Who predicted that curve-ball?
Maybe Libdems are piling up a lot of wasted votes in second place, should help them for next time.
Next time is next year.
45% chance of slim Tory majority which won't survive extension of transition next June. 55% chance of Labour minority government (100 short of a majority) that survives nine months of 2nd referendum and then collapses.
Election in 2020 nailed on. With LDs in 2nd place all over the place.
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.
Most slogans are shit. But a good slogan is gold dust. Cummings understands this.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
EDIT: Although apparently we're getting a daily YouGov again?
Yougovs are going to swamp the polling narrative, really tedious.
I think the problem with you gov is they get the mid term elections spot on when voters have made up their minds, and have no issue telling you. Lib Dem’s and BP had votes in the can weeks before the Euros for example. But yougov system breaks in GE when voters aren’t so honest with them. I don’t want to come over all Freud, but ITN vox popping in Sunderland today, it was clear what coy voters were going to do, but they won’t admit it till voting day.
Vox pops are a waste of time and so are the broadcasters bus tours seeking opinion.
By the nature of the rules they have to find balance and it makes the whole exercise pointless
I love them. I don’t want to out myself as Dominic Cummings but love reading ordinary people’s faces and I always ask people why? Because the answer they gave you, you see, isn’t the answer. From the answer to why you know the answer.
I stand by everything I say about you gov. People go protesting mid term. Gravitate back to tribe for GE, but cagily if tribe an embarrassment.
Blimey. I leave the computer for a few hours and when I check to see if there's any news I discover Tom Watson is toast. Who predicted that curve-ball?
Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IF
ch - which probably explains the timing.
It only takes a week of resignations [...] If this is a coordinated attack on Corbyn, it is brilliantly timed.
I don't think it will register very much with voters but on the other hand it depends if they do take a pop at Corbyn.
I get the impression Watson timed his resignation to disrupt the Johnson launch rather than to cause issues for Corbyn. It has certainly diverted the media narrative.
I agree. My suspicion it’s been done to hurt Boris coverage. They knew about this all weeks if not longer, and picked the day and moment. They may even have written their exchange of letters weeks ago, unless you think it was written in rush this evening when corbyn caught on the hop.
Bit unfortunate then that what it really distracts attention from is the shambles over Alun Cairns and Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Not really, Mogg damage is done, legs has gone on it, cairns has legs till he gives up being a candidate. And the Boris launch drowned out by the timing Watson agreed with them. True, when they decided to hurt Boris launch the Tory difficulties were not anticipated by them. Tom couldnt sit on his announcement for ever looking out for a moment he wouldn’t be drowning out the Tory shambles, they may not give him one!
Edit. I think Mogg might be in trouble in his seat.
Very unlikely, because Labour are the main challengers in his seat, not the LDs. The LDs haven't been in second place there since 1987. It was a Labour seat from 1997 to 2010 (as Wansdyke).
Yes I know. You’ve reassured me Mogg is fighting on quicksand. It needs a poll or two to back up Lib Dem charts showing them closing in, labour to campaign with a light touch, and Mogg gone and dusted.
Meanwhile Lib Dem’s arent taking Cheltenham. This is how elections work.
Maybe Libdems are piling up a lot of wasted votes in second place, should help them for next time.
Next time is next year.
45% chance of slim Tory majority which won't survive extension of transition next June. 55% chance of Labour minority government (100 short of a majority) that survives nine months of 2nd referendum and then collapses.
Election in 2020 nailed on. With LDs in 2nd place all over the place.
I thought the end of the transition was at the end of the year?
I think the deadline for asking for an extension is end June.
Some hysterical over reaction by some media commentators over the Watson resignation.
If he had left with a tirade against Corbyn then this might have been a bigger deal.
Indeed. The towell's been thrown, but he's not causing trouble it seems, so while it is a sign of a major shift in party dynamics (or confirmation of it) I cannot see anyone but wonks getting excited.
Blimey. I leave the computer for a few hours and when I check to see if there's any news I discover Tom Watson is toast. Who predicted that curve-ball?
&
According to Survation the Tories are doing better in Workington than Wokingham.
Maybe Libdems are piling up a lot of wasted votes in second place, should help them for next time.
Next time is next year.
45% chance of slim Tory majority which won't survive extension of transition next June. 55% chance of Labour minority government (100 short of a majority) that survives nine months of 2nd referendum and then collapses.
Election in 2020 nailed on. With LDs in 2nd place all over the place.
I thought the end of the transition was at the end of the year?
I think the deadline for asking for an extension is end June.
In the implementation bill? That's a bit silly to have it six month prior to the end.
Maybe Libdems are piling up a lot of wasted votes in second place, should help them for next time.
Next time is next year.
45% chance of slim Tory majority which won't survive extension of transition next June. 55% chance of Labour minority government (100 short of a majority) that survives nine months of 2nd referendum and then collapses.
Election in 2020 nailed on. With LDs in 2nd place all over the place.
A LibDem claiming something is 'nailed on'.
Some things never change.
I can't find any odds on an election next year. Can anyone help? I think it is very likely
Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IF
ch - which probably explains the timing.
It only takes a week of resignations [...] If this is a coordinated attack on Corbyn, it is brilliantly timed.
I don't think it will register very much with voters but on the other hand it depends if they do take a pop at Corbyn.
I get the impression Watson timed his resignation to disrupt the Johnson launch rather than to cause issues for Corbyn. It has certainly diverted the media narrative.
I agree. My suspicion it’s been done to hurt Boris coverage. They knew about this all weeks if not longer, and picked the day and moment. They may even have written their exchange of letters weeks ago, unless you think it was written in rush this evening when corbyn caught on the hop.
Bit unfortunate then that what it really distracts attention from is the shambles over Alun Cairns and Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Not really, Mogg damage is done, legs has gone on it, cairns has legs till he gives up being a candidate. And the Boris launch drowned out by the timing Watson agreed with them. True, when they decided to hurt Boris launch the Tory difficulties were not anticipated by them. Tom couldnt sit on his announcement for ever looking out for a moment he wouldn’t be drowning out the Tory shambles, they may not give him one!
Edit. I think Mogg might be in trouble in his seat.
Very unlikely, because Labour are the main challengers in his seat, not the LDs. The LDs haven't been in second place there since 1987. It was a Labour seat from 1997 to 2010 (as Wansdyke).
Yes I know. You’ve reassured me Mogg is fighting on quicksand. It needs a poll or two to back up Lib Dem charts showing them closing in, labour to campaign with a light touch, and Mogg gone and dusted.
Meanwhile Lib Dem’s arent taking Cheltenham. This is how elections work.
I'm 99% sure Mogg won't lose his seat.
It wouldn’t be the shock if you see it coming.
He’s controversial, niche candidate now after the two years he’s had. It was a new labour electorate. Lib dems closing in. Plenty more labour to squeeze.
Maybe Libdems are piling up a lot of wasted votes in second place, should help them for next time.
Next time is next year.
45% chance of slim Tory majority which won't survive extension of transition next June. 55% chance of Labour minority government (100 short of a majority) that survives nine months of 2nd referendum and then collapses.
Election in 2020 nailed on. With LDs in 2nd place all over the place.
A LibDem claiming something is 'nailed on'.
Some things never change.
I can't find any odds on an election next year. Can anyone help? I think it is very likely
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.
Most slogans are shit. But a good slogan is gold dust. Cummings understands this.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
It is going to be a very different Parliament next time. With so many high profile MPs standing down or like Soubry/Grieve/Umunna likely to be defeated.
It is going to be a very different Parliament next time. With so many high profile MPs standing down or like Soubry/Grieve/Umunna likely to be defeated.
I think Umunna will probably win in Cities of London & Westminster.
So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......
Yes, Long-Bailey's been suggested as his heir, but she's not up to it. I fancy Dawn Butler.
Long-Bailey? Madame Mao without the sense of humour? The personality and charisma equivalent of a black hole?
Lewis Goodall saying the source that told him about Watson saying that further moderates are due to quit in the coming days.
That's big. If that is true I think the Labour vote might collapse further, and Boris wins. IF IF IF
ch - which probably explains the timing.
It only takes a week of resignations [...] If this is a coordinated attack on Corbyn, it is brilliantly timed.
I don't think it will register very much with voters but on the other hand it depends if they do take a pop at Corbyn.
I get the impression Watson timed his resignation to disrupt the Johnson launch rather than to cause issues for Corbyn. It has certainly diverted the media narrative.
I agree. My suspicion it’s been done to hurt Boris coverage. They knew about this all weeks if not longer, and picked the day and moment. They may even have written their exchange of letters weeks ago, unless you think it was written in rush this evening when corbyn caught on the hop.
Bit unfortunate then that what it really distracts attention from is the shambles over Alun Cairns and Jacob Rees-Mogg.
Not really, Mogg damage is done, legs has gone on it, cairns has legs till he gives up being a candidate. And the Boris launch drowned out by the timing Watson agreed with them. True, when they decided to hurt Boris launch the Tory difficulties were not anticipated by them. Tom couldnt sit on his announcement for ever looking out for a moment he wouldn’t be drowning out the Tory shambles, they may not give him one!
Edit. I think Mogg might be in trouble in his seat.
Very unlikely, because Labour are the main challengers in his seat, not the LDs. The LDs haven't been in second place there since 1987. It was a Labour seat from 1997 to 2010 (as Wansdyke).
Yes I know. You’ve reassured me Mogg is fighting on quicksand. It needs a poll or two to back up Lib Dem charts showing them closing in, labour to campaign with a light touch, and Mogg gone and dusted.
Meanwhile Lib Dem’s arent taking Cheltenham. This is how elections work.
Mogg is in no danger at all, according to the only constituency poll that we have. He has a lead of 16%.
The plan is understood to involve the Liberal Democrats and Greens standing aside for Plaid Cymru candidates in three of the four seats Plaid is defending in the December election - Arfon, Dwyfor Meirionydd and Carmarthen East and Dinefwr.
The deal does not involve the Ceredigion seat - currently held by Plaid Cymru but a top election target for the Lib Dems who are also expected to have a free run at the Brecon and Radnorshire seat, won by their leader in Wales Jane Dodds in the August by-election.
A single Lib Dem candidate is also expected to contest the Montgomeryshire and Cardiff Central seats - two seats the party has held in the recent past.
In return, the Greens will be given a free run in at least one seat.
So, if Labour lose (as the polls suggest) the left are going to be vicious in defence of Corbyn who may still yet resign. They will blame Starmer/Thornberry for the loss. It is going to be interesting to see an early signs of potential successors positioning themselves by distancing themselves from the Brexit position.
The problem for the lefty, takeover clique...is that after McDonnell they do not possess anyone in their ranks with any kind of anything.....Corbyn is their last hope....and he's a fucking old duffer.....
McDonnell IMO opinion will go on manoeuvres and anoint a Keir or Emily when he continues to hold the purse strings......
Yes, Long-Bailey's been suggested as his heir, but she's not up to it. I fancy Dawn Butler.
Long-Bailey? Madame Mao without the sense of humour? The personality and charisma equivalent of a black hole?
Look. This is a betting site. She is the bet before her price narrows.
In your opinion she’s rubbish. But you mistake the fact Corbyns timing is based on LB becoming leader whether You thinks she’s credible or not. It’s not your call. Boris majority corbyn stand down in January, she will be labour leader come April. QED. With support of both jez, McD, Unite, Shadow cabinet and momentum it’s the safest political certainty you could ever bet on.
The more interesting bet is whether Boris government and Brexit becomes so hapless and unpopular LB becomes PM in 2024. What’s the odds when The old ‘can’t be PM because they are crap” just doesn’t play anymore, the last few years have proved so.
Actually I do not think she is rubbish. She is reasonably intelligent (a trait which may disqualify her anyway). But I have always thought a leader needs some vestige of personality which the munchkins can recognise and can be projected to voters. The consequences of a 'no personality' leader can be seen in the likes of IDS, although it can be overdone, as seen in Kinnock. Is it really wise to elect a leader who makes IDS look like Silvio Berlusconi in personality terms?
To answer your question, it’s not at all wise. In a mirror to your post, I think she is a bit rubbish.
But the point is anointing her is going to happen.
If the Boris government becomes unpopular, she could be PM despite those obvious disadvantages.
The plan is understood to involve the Liberal Democrats and Greens standing aside for Plaid Cymru candidates in three of the four seats Plaid is defending in the December election - Arfon, Dwyfor Meirionydd and Carmarthen East and Dinefwr.
The deal does not involve the Ceredigion seat - currently held by Plaid Cymru but a top election target for the Lib Dems who are also expected to have a free run at the Brecon and Radnorshire seat, won by their leader in Wales Jane Dodds in the August by-election.
A single Lib Dem candidate is also expected to contest the Montgomeryshire and Cardiff Central seats - two seats the party has held in the recent past.
In return, the Greens will be given a free run in at least one seat.
Plaid Cymru were never going to lose those three seats anyway and the LDs were never going to win them, so it's more of a gesture than anything consequential.
Maybe Libdems are piling up a lot of wasted votes in second place, should help them for next time.
Next time is next year.
45% chance of slim Tory majority which won't survive extension of transition next June. 55% chance of Labour minority government (100 short of a majority) that survives nine months of 2nd referendum and then collapses.
Election in 2020 nailed on. With LDs in 2nd place all over the place.
A LibDem claiming something is 'nailed on'.
Some things never change.
I can't find any odds on an election next year. Can anyone help? I think it is very likely
Already from "nailed on" to "very likely"...
Fair cop 75% probability I think for the reasons I gave.
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.
Most slogans are shit. But a good slogan is gold dust. Cummings understands this.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
On the contrary, Take Back Control is a bit shit. Get Brexit Done is good. Unleash Britain's potential, pretty good.
It is going to be a very different Parliament next time. With so many high profile MPs standing down or like Soubry/Grieve/Umunna likely to be defeated.
I think Umunna will probably win in Cities of London & Westminster.
If he does and Corbyn and Swinson lose he could be the next non Tory PM
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.
Most slogans are shit. But a good slogan is gold dust. Cummings understands this.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
On the contrary, Take Back Control is a bit shit. Get Brexit Done is good. Unleash Britain's potential, pretty good.
Take Back Control (and MAGA) are good because they promise to return something that has been lost by corrupt elites. The other slogans don’t do that.
Esher and Walton 58th on the LD target seat, South Cambs 37th, suggests the LDs will recover to 1997 levels but not 2005 or 2010 levels
Heres HY. 🥳
What’s the story behind the empty sky chair HY?
And How Boris launched his campaign writing his own longest Telegraph headline in history, attacking Corbyn blustering on about Stalin and stuff, there’s no way Trump would have done that is there, his headline would have been make America Great again, best jobs president, immigration sorted, drain the Washington swamp.
Even Trump ran a positive campaign in comparison to this. Can you name many examples of when a campaign went negative and won hearts and minds rather than losing hearts and minds?
The plan is understood to involve the Liberal Democrats and Greens standing aside for Plaid Cymru candidates in three of the four seats Plaid is defending in the December election - Arfon, Dwyfor Meirionydd and Carmarthen East and Dinefwr.
The deal does not involve the Ceredigion seat - currently held by Plaid Cymru but a top election target for the Lib Dems who are also expected to have a free run at the Brecon and Radnorshire seat, won by their leader in Wales Jane Dodds in the August by-election.
A single Lib Dem candidate is also expected to contest the Montgomeryshire and Cardiff Central seats - two seats the party has held in the recent past.
In return, the Greens will be given a free run in at least one seat.
Lib Dem votes in Arfon ... 648 , LibDem votes in Dwyfor ... 937, LibDem votes in CE&D ... 920 (behind even that tosser Neil Hamilton).
Great deal, Adam.
Claiming to support independence but voting for a unionist party in the general election under the guise of “tactical voting” makes no sense whatsoever.
I wonder where the Greens get to stand ... probably the delightful LibDems are allowing them a free run in one of the hardest Council Estates in Wales so that they can explain to the residents why they need 15 more different kinds of recycling bins.
Esher and Walton 58th on the LD target seat, South Cambs 37th, suggests the LDs will recover to 1997 levels but not 2005 or 2010 levels
Heres HY. 🥳
What’s the story behind the empty sky chair HY?
And How Boris launched his campaign writing his own longest Telegraph headline in history, attacking Corbyn blustering on about Stalin and stuff, there’s no way Trump would have done that is there, his headline would have been make America Great again, best jobs president, immigration sorted, drain the Washington swamp.
Even Trump ran a positive campaign in comparison to this. Can you name many examples of when a campaign went negative and won hearts and minds rather than losing hearts and minds?
Is Boris going to continue promising of hundreds of billions of pounds brexit bonus as he done today? Or is that a bit silly?
Esher and Walton 58th on the LD target seat, South Cambs 37th, suggests the LDs will recover to 1997 levels but not 2005 or 2010 levels
Heres HY. 🥳
What’s the story behind the empty sky chair HY?
And How Boris launched his campaign writing his own longest Telegraph headline in history, attacking Corbyn blustering on about Stalin and stuff, there’s no way Trump would have done that is there, his headline would have been make America Great again, best jobs president, immigration sorted, drain the Washington swamp.
Even Trump ran a positive campaign in comparison to this. Can you name many examples of when a campaign went negative and won hearts and minds rather than losing hearts and minds?
LBJ 1964, Nixon 1972, Bush Snr 1988, Bush Jnr 2004, arguably Obama 2012, Australian Labor 1993, Australian Liberals 2019, German SPD 2002, UK Tories 1992, UK Labour 2005 to name but a few all won by destroying the opposition with negative campaigning (as Trump would against Warren for example when he seeks re election)
Maybe Libdems are piling up a lot of wasted votes in second place, should help them for next time.
Next time is next year.
45% chance of slim Tory majority which won't survive extension of transition next June. 55% chance of Labour minority government (100 short of a majority) that survives nine months of 2nd referendum and then collapses.
Election in 2020 nailed on. With LDs in 2nd place all over the place.
A LibDem claiming something is 'nailed on'.
Some things never change.
I can't find any odds on an election next year. Can anyone help? I think it is very likely
Already from "nailed on" to "very likely"...
Fair cop 75% probability I think for the reasons I gave.
I reckon they can’t put anything up for a “next election” market because technically we don’t yet know the next election will be December 2019, given there’s a narrow set of scenarios in which it would be moved. At least I don’t think I’ve had my “December 19” pay out yet.
Just a note from Preseli Pemba. As far as I am aware all parties are standing, although the Greens may stand aside if last time is anything to go by. Momentum are getting their act together and will be mounting a big campaign in support of Phillipa Thompson. An expecting a lot of mud slinging against the unpopular Crabb. There had been talk of him standing down but that now seems unlikely. Difficult to see anything but a comfortable Tory win at moment, but with 5 weeks to go...events. Will keep you posted for betting opportunities.
Is it just me...but being bombarded by lib dem propaganda the past week or so.
Not just you. I’m being bombarded, as is @YBarddCwsc.
Perhaps we’re especially chosen.....
I hope @kinabalu reveals where in Hampstead he will be canvassing for Labour so that I can go and berate him/have an interesting chat (depending on my mood).
Wonder whether Tom Watson has regrets about pushing Blair under the bus for Brown in September 2006?
Everything from that point on has unraveled hasn't it?
Historians may see Watson's departure tonight as the moment when Momentum finally routed the moderates within Labour and the 2019 GE as the moment when the LDs began the process of overtaking Labour again as the main alternative to the Tories in UK politics
Esher and Walton 58th on the LD target seat, South Cambs 37th, suggests the LDs will recover to 1997 levels but not 2005 or 2010 levels
Heres HY. 🥳
What’s the story behind the empty sky chair HY?
And How Boris launched his campaign writing his own longest Telegraph headline in history, attacking Corbyn blustering on about Stalin and stuff, there’s no way Trump would have done that is there, his headline would have been make America Great again, best jobs president, immigration sorted, drain the Washington swamp.
Even Trump ran a positive campaign in comparison to this. Can you name many examples of when a campaign went negative and won hearts and minds rather than losing hearts and minds?
LBJ 1964, Nixon 1972, Bush Snr 1988, Bush Jnr 2004, arguably Obama 2012, Australian Labor 1993, Australian Liberals 2019, German SPD 2002, UK Tories 1992, UK Labour 2005 to name but a few all won by destroying the opposition with negative campaigning (as Trump would against Warren for example when he seeks re election)
We can always rely on you to attempt an answer rather than empty chair us. 😉
That’s an impressive list from out of your knowledge. I know 72 very well from the dukes book. And on that basis I could say some of those were certain victory’s made closer by going negative, or arguably not that negative as Cummings making this. But I won’t, because I don’t have killer facts to support argument.
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.
Most slogans are shit. But a good slogan is gold dust. Cummings understands this.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
Get Brexit done works if Brexit is your number one priority. As GE2017 proved, it turned out to be only one of a number of factors.
Corbyn might well trump (no pun intended) "get Brexit done" with an even more blunt appeal: f**k the rich.
I doubt he'll actually use the F word, but that will be the implication, and it is a large reason why the less well off voted Brexit.
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.
Most slogans are shit. But a good slogan is gold dust. Cummings understands this.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
Get Brexit done works if Brexit is your number one priority. As GE2017 proved, it turned out to be only one of a number of factors.
Corbyn might well trump (no pun intended) "get Brexit done" with an even more blunt appeal: f**k the rich.
I doubt he'll actually use the F word, but that will be the implication, and it is a large reason why the less well off voted Brexit.
“Get Brexit Done” blunts itself by the next part of the message - “so we can focus on people’s priorities”. It’s a tacit admission that Brexit has no upside in itself.
Esher and Walton 58th on the LD target seat, South Cambs 37th, suggests the LDs will recover to 1997 levels but not 2005 or 2010 levels
Heres HY. 🥳
What’s the story behind the empty sky chair HY?
And How Boris launched his campaign writing his own longest Telegraph headline in history, attacking Corbyn blustering on about Stalin and stuff, there’s no way Trump would have done that is there, his headline would have been make America Great again, best jobs president, immigration sorted, drain the Washington swamp.
Even Trump ran a positive campaign in comparison to this. Can you name many examples of when a campaign went negative and won hearts and minds rather than losing hearts and minds?
LBJ 1964, Nixon 1972, Bush Snr 1988, Bush Jnr 2004, arguably Obama 2012, Australian Labor 1993, Australian Liberals 2019, German SPD 2002, UK Tories 1992, UK Labour 2005 to name but a few all won by destroying the opposition with negative campaigning (as Trump would against Warren for example when he seeks re election)
We can always rely on you to attempt an answer rather than empty chair us. 😉
That’s an impressive list from out of your knowledge. I know 72 very well from the dukes book. And on that basis I could say some of those were certain victory’s made closer by going negative, or arguably not that negative as Cummings making this. But I won’t, because I don’t have killer facts to support argument.
Not really, LBJ and Nixon both won landslides, Bush in 2004, Obama in 2012, Australian Labour in 1993, the Australian Liberals in 2019, the German SPD in 2002 and the Tories in 1992 all won very close elections with negative ads making the difference. Only Labour 2005 perhaps lost a bit through negative campaigning but it still scared voters enough about Michael Howard to get Blair re elected.
Notice all of them were incumbent presidents or governments, negative campaigning works if a government is not hugely popular if it makes the alternative seem even worse
'A woman in her 40s in a pub in West Bromwich, a pint of lager sitting untouched on the table in front of her while she has her say about the general election:
“I have never been for the Conservatives. I have always been for the people. “As for Boris Johnson, he is such a fool. He’s the most charismatic fool that I have ever met. “If I was going to vote, I’d vote for Boris Johnson because he’s a fool. “I don’t care that he’s lied and cheated because that is his way and I support Boris. “I will definitely vote for Boris, liar, cheat and fool! And for Brexit! I want to get out.” And here is a man, a bus driver, talking in a calmer tone in the same pub, but sounding just as resolute: “Boris Johnson is doing what he said he’s going to do. He’s like Trump, Mr Donald Trump. “Trump is sound without the shadow of a doubt. “Mr Boris Johnson, I like him. OK, he’s had a bit of argy-bargy with his other half, but that’s water under the bridge. “Boris is having my vote without a shadow of a doubt. Round here, they’re all swinging to the Conservatives. “It needs someone to kick Mr Watson [the local MP] off his pedestal. Get a woman in there. We need a strong Labour woman on Sandwell Council... Here is a retired builder from Walsall, a borough where the Conservatives already hold two out of the three seats: “I’ll vote for the one that gets us out [of the EU]. I think it’s absolutely disgusting. It’s three years now. “I will definitely vote for Boris Johnson because he’s done more to get us out than anyone else. And all my friends in Walsall feel the same way. Well beyond Walsall.” ConHome: “Are you usually a Conservative voter?” The builder: “Well no. I don’t stay with the same one. It’s whoever I think is best at the time. “If that Labour chap [Jeremy Corbyn] gets in the only thing to do is to leave England and go and live somewhere else. Because it’ll be a disaster with him. “What’s the other one? The Liberal Democrats. If they got in it’d be the end of democracy altogether. “They said they’d take no notice of the referendum full stop. What would be the point in voting again?” A courier broke into the conversation: “Don’t talk about Corbyn in this town. The man who hates Britain. I’ve voted Labour all my life. I come from a Labour family. “But I would never ever vote Labour while Jeremy Corbyn has anything to do with it. And we need to get Tom Watson out of this town. Sixty-seven per cent of people here voted to leave. He’s supposed to represent us. This time I’m voting Conservative.... “Obviously he’s well educated compared to us plebeians round here,” one man said, in a friendly tone which indicated that for him, this was no reason not to support the Prime Minister.' https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/11/vox-pub-in-west-bromwich-i-will-definitely-vote-for-boris-liar-cheat-and-fool.html
I see the new added vacuous slogan is unleash Britain’s potential ! Someone pass me the sick bucket .
There's so few good slogans in fairness. They're often meaningless, vague or just plain nonsense, though can be quite funny if turned around. If the Tories lose apparently Britain wants to contrain its potential, and in 2017 given the Tories received more votes, apparently the many were on the side of the few rather the many, given Labour's slogan came second.
Most slogans are shit. But a good slogan is gold dust. Cummings understands this.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
Get Brexit done works if Brexit is your number one priority. As GE2017 proved, it turned out to be only one of a number of factors.
Corbyn might well trump (no pun intended) "get Brexit done" with an even more blunt appeal: f**k the rich.
I doubt he'll actually use the F word, but that will be the implication, and it is a large reason why the less well off voted Brexit.
About that... Brexit is much more important now than it was in 2017.
Just thinking on that earlier Cooper not confident tweet. Losing that really would be getting towards end of days stuff for labour. My sunderland witterings are loony enough but that's only an 11% swing, this is 15%!
Unbelievable LAB meltdown with the loss of their moderate deputy. What do cyclefree Meeks Tyson and the other hard left corbinystas think about this!?
I’m a hard left corbynista, am I?!?!?
At the moment, all I’m thinking is that given his success at losing weight, getting fit and reversing his Type 2 diabetes, he’d be a good choice of gym instructor - and I could do with one. But I don’t think, somehow, that was the answer you were expecting.
Still, me a Corbynista ..... hahahahahahahahahaha!
Comments
I had the cynical thought that there might be multiple high MOE polls being done in these constituencies with only the one with the most useful result being released.
Take Back Control really WAS genius. It told you how to vote if you didn't like your life. In three words.
Similarly, Get Brexit Done is very sharp. It might win the election.
Unlease Britain's Potential is indeed shit. But it might not matter. What is Labour's slogan? The LDs? SNP? People will remember Get Brexit Done.
The disgrace is the cover up of these cases which has been exposed.
is next year.
45% chance of slim Tory majority which won't survive extension of transition next June.
55% chance of Labour minority government (100 short of a majority) that survives nine months of 2nd referendum and then collapses.
Election in 2020 nailed on. With LDs in 2nd place all over the place.
I stand by everything I say about you gov. People go protesting mid term. Gravitate back to tribe for GE, but cagily if tribe an embarrassment.
General
Election
Regression
British &
Irish
Linear
Get a nibble of the GERBIL.
Some things never change.
If he had left with a tirade against Corbyn then this might have been a bigger deal. As for a stampede of other Labour MPs , not happening .
He is a gym instructor
According to Survation the Tories are doing better in Workington than Wokingham.
But it’s a success in a sea of vacuous nonsense , drivel and vomit inducing claptrap .
He’s controversial, niche candidate now after the two years he’s had. It was a new labour electorate. Lib dems closing in. Plenty more labour to squeeze.
That's not really quite how it worked out for the Tory 20 though, so maybe a touch of wishfulness on my part.
The party of Wales ducking out of seats in a GE is not a good look
Better than my Bayesian Overfitted Log-Linear Original Knowledge System.
Close, but no cigar, as will be the case in a lot of Stockbroker Belt seats.
The deal does not involve the Ceredigion seat - currently held by Plaid Cymru but a top election target for the Lib Dems who are also expected to have a free run at the Brecon and Radnorshire seat, won by their leader in Wales Jane Dodds in the August by-election.
A single Lib Dem candidate is also expected to contest the Montgomeryshire and Cardiff Central seats - two seats the party has held in the recent past.
In return, the Greens will be given a free run in at least one seat.
But the point is anointing her is going to happen.
If the Boris government becomes unpopular, she could be PM despite those obvious disadvantages.
What’s the story behind the empty sky chair HY?
Even Trump ran a positive campaign in comparison to this. Can you name many examples of when a campaign went negative and won hearts and minds rather than losing hearts and minds?
Great deal, Adam.
Claiming to support independence but voting for a unionist party in the general election under the guise of “tactical voting” makes no sense whatsoever.
I wonder where the Greens get to stand ... probably the delightful LibDems are allowing them a free run in one of the hardest Council Estates in Wales so that they can explain to the residents why they need 15 more different kinds of recycling bins.
Everything from that point on has unraveled hasn't it?
Momentum are getting their act together and will be mounting a big campaign in support of Phillipa Thompson. An expecting a lot of mud slinging against the unpopular Crabb. There had been talk of him standing down but that now seems unlikely. Difficult to see anything but a comfortable Tory win at moment, but with 5 weeks to go...events. Will keep you posted for betting opportunities.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/469300-iowa-poll-warren-buttigieg-sanders-and-biden-in-a-tight-scrape-at-the-top
Almost a four way tie....
Pretty cynical and destructive way of leaving a party.
Perhaps we’re especially chosen.....
I hope @kinabalu reveals where in Hampstead he will be canvassing for Labour so that I can go and berate him/have an interesting chat (depending on my mood).
That’s an impressive list from out of your knowledge. I know 72 very well from the dukes book. And on that basis I could say some of those were certain victory’s made closer by going negative, or arguably not that negative as Cummings making this. But I won’t, because I don’t have killer facts to support argument.
Harvey Proctor has therefore pulled out of the contest in WB-E.
Corbyn might well trump (no pun intended) "get Brexit done" with an even more blunt appeal: f**k the rich.
I doubt he'll actually use the F word, but that will be the implication, and it is a large reason why the less well off voted Brexit.
Notice all of them were incumbent presidents or governments, negative campaigning works if a government is not hugely popular if it makes the alternative seem even worse
And constituency polling has been bad in the past.
'A woman in her 40s in a pub in West Bromwich, a pint of lager sitting untouched on the table in front of her while she has her say about the general election:
“I have never been for the Conservatives. I have always been for the people.
“As for Boris Johnson, he is such a fool. He’s the most charismatic fool that I have ever met.
“If I was going to vote, I’d vote for Boris Johnson because he’s a fool.
“I don’t care that he’s lied and cheated because that is his way and I support Boris.
“I will definitely vote for Boris, liar, cheat and fool! And for Brexit! I want to get out.”
And here is a man, a bus driver, talking in a calmer tone in the same pub, but sounding just as resolute: “Boris Johnson is doing what he said he’s going to do. He’s like Trump, Mr Donald Trump.
“Trump is sound without the shadow of a doubt.
“Mr Boris Johnson, I like him. OK, he’s had a bit of argy-bargy with his other half, but that’s water under the bridge.
“Boris is having my vote without a shadow of a doubt. Round here, they’re all swinging to the Conservatives.
“It needs someone to kick Mr Watson [the local MP] off his pedestal. Get a woman in there. We need a strong Labour woman on Sandwell Council...
Here is a retired builder from Walsall, a borough where the Conservatives already hold two out of the three seats:
“I’ll vote for the one that gets us out [of the EU]. I think it’s absolutely disgusting. It’s three years now.
“I will definitely vote for Boris Johnson because he’s done more to get us out than anyone else. And all my friends in Walsall feel the same way. Well beyond Walsall.”
ConHome: “Are you usually a Conservative voter?”
The builder: “Well no. I don’t stay with the same one. It’s whoever I think is best at the time.
“If that Labour chap [Jeremy Corbyn] gets in the only thing to do is to leave England and go and live somewhere else. Because it’ll be a disaster with him.
“What’s the other one? The Liberal Democrats. If they got in it’d be the end of democracy altogether.
“They said they’d take no notice of the referendum full stop. What would be the point in voting again?”
A courier broke into the conversation: “Don’t talk about Corbyn in this town. The man who hates Britain. I’ve voted Labour all my life. I come from a Labour family.
“But I would never ever vote Labour while Jeremy Corbyn has anything to do with it. And we need to get Tom Watson out of this town. Sixty-seven per cent of people here voted to leave. He’s supposed to represent us. This time I’m voting Conservative....
“Obviously he’s well educated compared to us plebeians round here,” one man said, in a friendly tone which indicated that for him, this was no reason not to support the Prime Minister.'
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/11/vox-pub-in-west-bromwich-i-will-definitely-vote-for-boris-liar-cheat-and-fool.html
https://c.files.bbci.co.uk/11EEE/production/_109345437_optimised-ipsosiss2-nc.png
At the moment, all I’m thinking is that given his success at losing weight, getting fit and reversing his Type 2 diabetes, he’d be a good choice of gym instructor - and I could do with one. But I don’t think, somehow, that was the answer you were expecting.
Still, me a Corbynista ..... hahahahahahahahahaha!