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  • I see the Daily Telegraph is talking up the UK economy averting recession in figures due out tomorrow.

    BJ has the Brexit supporting media working overtime in their efforts to disseminate propaganda to support the PM. But what if they are wrong and the economy has stalled or even worse in recession? Added to which, can the credibility of the Brexit supporting media be sustained when they are advocating a policy "Brexit" which will mean a smaller economy than would have been the case had we stayed in the EU...

    The stark fact is that on the 31st January we will have left if Boris wins and so economic modelling will have to adjust to the new realities if that is the case
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    edited November 2019
    nunu2 said:

    There was a poll for a group called "Towns are important" or some such.

    They had a poll out showing a 5% tory lead in the towns they polled, does anyone have a link?

    Can't find tables but the Centre For Towns poll was done by YouGov and did indeed show a 5% Tory lead in 'ex industrial towns'.

    https://twitter.com/centrefortowns/status/1193457116805320705
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    egg said:

    HYUFD said:

    So if Labour lose having lost Leavers to the Brexit Party and the Tories and Remainers to the LDs, Greens and SNP they now have a cunning plan to accelerate the process

    You always give an answer and great rebuttal HY. The latest speculation about the suppressed security report, this time from the Pravda of the BBC, claim Tories suppressed it because Russians named in it are big donors to the Tory party, hence he who pays the piper plays the tune. 😮

    What’s the right response? Surely rebutting attack where Labour get their money off unions just adds fuel to the fire as doesn’t actually rebutt?
    The right response is to ignore it unless the donations were illegal
    The Russia report should have been published. I doubt there'd have been a voter backlash because there wasn't when George Osborne was found grubbing for Russian millions a decade or so back.
    Bit difficult for Labour to run with that given Mandelson had been on the same yacht also grubbing for money. This one should have been a free hit, unless of course it implicated Labour too.
    The press ran with it. Mandelson was not after the cash, having fallen out with Brown. The chain was that Osborne leaked what Mandelson said about Brown, and then Nat Rothschild leaked that Osborne was grubbing for roubles (illegally, of course). Yet the party and Osborne survived.

    Likewise reports about electoral malpractice in 2015 and funding irregularities and Russian activity in the referendum have not overturned Brexit.

    Decrepit's first law of politics: things that ought to matter, usually don't.
    Nat Rothschild.

    What ever happened to Bumi and Genel?
    Went up in flames
  • Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.

    https://www.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1193175260008505345

    Labour is broken institutionally.

    You do not need the last word. Labour is broken

    I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
    This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
    Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.

    Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?

    I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
    The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.

    There are no balanced opinions on PB
    I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch.
    The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
    :+1:
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    RobD said:

    I see the Daily Telegraph is talking up the UK economy averting recession in figures due out tomorrow.

    BJ has the Brexit supporting media working overtime in their efforts to disseminate propaganda to support the PM. But what if they are wrong and the economy has stalled or even worse in recession? Added to which, can the credibility of the Brexit supporting media be sustained when they are advocating a policy "Brexit" which will mean a smaller economy than would have been the case had we stayed in the EU...

    You don’t trust the ONS figures?
    Nope - everything around me says the economy is in late 2001 / early 2008 mood.

    What happens from here will be of interest.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    I see the Daily Telegraph is talking up the UK economy averting recession in figures due out tomorrow.

    BJ has the Brexit supporting media working overtime in their efforts to disseminate propaganda to support the PM. But what if they are wrong and the economy has stalled or even worse in recession? Added to which, can the credibility of the Brexit supporting media be sustained when they are advocating a policy "Brexit" which will mean a smaller economy than would have been the case had we stayed in the EU...

    The data is released by month - the economy has not stalled, as much as evidently wish it had.
  • ydoethur said:

    I bet this dude even thinks about going to the lav in Brexit metaphors.

    https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/1193259681256558592?s=20

    Also failing to mention that they immediately joined the European Community.
    Also wrong, as they did not leave the Warsaw Pact until the DDR was dissolved on 3rd October 1990. He’s confusing it with the opening of the border and the demolition of the Berlin Wall, which was 30 years ago last Friday.
    He probably still thinks David Hasselhoff ended Communism, like David Hasselhoff does.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHoXdGeqflU
  • nichomar said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket

    Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.

    If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.

    I actually think that this time the grand coalition’ will happen Felipe will tell them to park party politics for 24 months and do what is best for the country. The rise in the ultra right vote will be concern for all and make them think

    I disagree. I don’t think VOX is in the AfD, FN camp. Lega maybe. It’s worth remembering it sprang from PP and gets much of it’s support from former PP voters. I see it as more BXP than BNP. On that basis, I don’t see how a grand coalition benefits Casado. He has seen off C’s and after six more months of PSOE stewing impotently he will fancy his chances of winning most seats come May 2020.

  • Evening all and excluding the exit poll from Sir John Curtice and chums, what do fellow PBers think will be the first result to act as a straw in the wind to the way the election has gone? I seem to remember in either 2015 or 2017 Sunderland Central was being promoted as a potential marker.
  • RobD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Pidcock is very young remember. She has much scope to mature and blossom.

    She might even think about making friends with a Tory.


    Na, who am I kidding.
    She has the advantages of being a classic Labour red princess too.

  • Because Boris and Brexit are very divisive. May was crap, but didn't bring out the irrational hatred in the way Boris does among some and Brexit is even more divisive now and Remainers can see a path to stopping it.

    Stopping Brexit? How?

    Boris will get a majority and his Europhobic party will pass his deal.
    If Labour / Lib Dem / SNP get a larger number of seats than the Tories, Brexit will be stopped. Or at least that is how a lot of people will see it.
    I cannot see it happening. Perhaps if Labour was a political party instead of a personality cult, but until it starts doing serious politics instead of Student Union politics ....
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    ydoethur said:

    I bet this dude even thinks about going to the lav in Brexit metaphors.

    https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/1193259681256558592?s=20

    Also failing to mention that they immediately joined the European Community.
    Also wrong, as they did not leave the Warsaw Pact until the DDR was dissolved on 3rd October 1990. He’s confusing it with the opening of the border and the demolition of the Berlin Wall, which was 30 years ago last Friday.
    I remember the economic travails of the former Soviet Union states and their 'red' satellite states endured for years after the collapse of communism. Serious hardship ensued and the disruption from leaving an economic union should not be underestimated.
  • eek said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket

    Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.

    If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.

    I actually think that this time the grand coalition’ will happen Felipe will tell them to park party politics for 24 months and do what is best for the country. The rise in the ultra right vote will be concern for all and make them think
    At some point they are going to have to have a government that lasts even without a clear single winner, it gets a bit ridiculous otherwise
    If Spain don’t really have a government what does that do to post WA Brexit negotiations?
    It will have little effect. On leaving to transistion at the end of January 2020 ( subject to Boris winning) all negotiations re-commence with Barnier, not the member states
    The Negotiations are - but the ratification of the final deal is not - in fact in some countries (Belgium is 1 from memory) individual regions will have what amounts to a complete veto.

    And in some cases that veto could come with a large car factory remaining open at say the expense of Vauxhall.

    But it's not surprising that the biggest supporters of a rapid deal don't understand the steps required for a deal to be finalised.
    I do understand your point but the immediate negotiations will be done with Barnier. My concerns are what happens at the end of next year to be honest, and that is a whole can of worms
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Quincel said:

    nunu2 said:

    There was a poll for a group called "Towns are important" or some such.

    They had a poll out showing a 5% tory lead in the towns they polled, does anyone have a link?

    Can't find tables but the Centre For Towns poll was done by YouGov and did indeed show a 5% Tory lead in 'ex industrial towns'.

    https://twitter.com/centrefortowns/status/1193457116805320705
    That's a 9% swing Lab to Con in ex-industrial towns.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Am I the only one which hoped there’d be no exit polling for the GE .

    I think it’s much more fun to not know those projections and just see how the night unfolds .
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Evening all and excluding the exit poll from Sir John Curtice and chums, what do fellow PBers think will be the first result to act as a straw in the wind to the way the election has gone? I seem to remember in either 2015 or 2017 Sunderland Central was being promoted as a potential marker.

    Comparing the 2019 result with the 2017 result should give you the trend.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    I'll give you a straighforward take on what I am hearing on the doorsteps. This is a betting site - no point in spouting partisan bollocks if people lose money on it.

    I'll remind you of what I said in 2015 - that the LibDems in the SW were getting a shellacking. In 2017 I said that the Tories were doing great in Torbay - they stuck 11k on their majority.

    What themes I'm hearing so far in 2019 in Totnes:

    - Corbyn is toxic - raised spontaneously by multiple voters

    - Get Brexit Done chimes with the times

    - Swinson is not cutting through with Revoke, which is thought unfair to the 17.4m who voted for Brexit

    - I have only had 2 voters reference the Brexit Party - and they were quickly turned back to the blues

    - Dr Sarah Wollaston is a "waste of space" - she should have submitted to a by-election when she defected

    - oh, and "all you Tories are fucking arseholes"

    :D

    You do not normally report the last one :)

    A few kudos for doing it this time ;)
    I personally felt it was TMI. I don’t need to know the sexual proclivities of Devon Tories...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket

    Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.

    If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.

    I actually think that this time the grand coalition’ will happen Felipe will tell them to park party politics for 24 months and do what is best for the country. The rise in the ultra right vote will be concern for all and make them think
    At some point they are going to have to have a government that lasts even without a clear single winner, it gets a bit ridiculous otherwise
    If Spain don’t really have a government what does that do to post WA Brexit negotiations?
    It will have little effect. On leaving to transistion at the end of January 2020 ( subject to Boris winning) all negotiations re-commence with Barnier, not the member states
    The Negotiations are - but the ratification of the final deal is not - in fact in some countries (Belgium is 1 from memory) individual regions will have what amounts to a complete veto.

    And in some cases that veto could come with a large car factory remaining open at say the expense of Vauxhall.

    But it's not surprising that the biggest supporters of a rapid deal don't understand the steps required for a deal to be finalised.
    We will not leave transition at the end of 2020 unless it’s no deal, if we leave by 2025 it will be a miracle but never fear there is a reason why TBP will withdraw and the ERG are happy.
  • Evening all and excluding the exit poll from Sir John Curtice and chums, what do fellow PBers think will be the first result to act as a straw in the wind to the way the election has gone? I seem to remember in either 2015 or 2017 Sunderland Central was being promoted as a potential marker.

    Given how good those exit polls have been for the last two elections, that should be enough I would have thought. Sunderland May be misleading anyway as if I remember correctly it was heavily Leave in the referendum.
  • ydoethur said:

    Mr. kle4, a sizeable minority, and the PM losing his seat, might be the optimal result.

    Do you mean a sizeable majority?

    Although we need Patel, Raab and Gove to lose their seats as well, don’t forget.
    I don't know about the others, but Priti Patel is well into blue rosette on a donkey territory. She's completely safe.
    Writing from Witham. United Remain could just about do it; she’s violently anti EU. She does have her friends locally, though.
    You are either Witham or Against 'em!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Gabs2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.

    https://www.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1193175260008505345

    Labour is broken institutionally.

    Dear oh dear.

    Labour appear to be not so much throwing away what should be safe seats lightly as hurling them with great force. Bullying out a candidate in Bassetlaw and keeping certifiable lunatics in Coventry and Rother Valley is just...bizarre.
    The contrast between them and thr Tories, whi have very quickly ditched candidates, is striking.
    Long live the Tories! Yesterday you couldn't stand Johnson's Tories.

    Like I thought all you needed was a good night's sleep!
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    RobD said:

    I see the Daily Telegraph is talking up the UK economy averting recession in figures due out tomorrow.

    BJ has the Brexit supporting media working overtime in their efforts to disseminate propaganda to support the PM. But what if they are wrong and the economy has stalled or even worse in recession? Added to which, can the credibility of the Brexit supporting media be sustained when they are advocating a policy "Brexit" which will mean a smaller economy than would have been the case had we stayed in the EU...

    You don’t trust the ONS figures?
    I trust the ONS figures I once received an offer of a job with them and understand how meticulous they are about analysing and reporting data. They have not been published yet! Peoples predictions can be wrong... :wink:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    edited November 2019

    ydoethur said:

    I bet this dude even thinks about going to the lav in Brexit metaphors.

    https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/1193259681256558592?s=20

    Also failing to mention that they immediately joined the European Community.
    Also wrong, as they did not leave the Warsaw Pact until the DDR was dissolved on 3rd October 1990. He’s confusing it with the opening of the border and the demolition of the Berlin Wall, which was 30 years ago last Friday.
    I remember the economic travails of the former Soviet Union states and their 'red' satellite states endured for years after the collapse of communism. Serious hardship ensued and the disruption from leaving an economic union should not be underestimated.
    East Germany did a lot better than the rest, of course, because it didn’t just leave COMECON, it was absorbed into West Germany and by extension the EC.

    But it was still a costly and difficult process to reintegrate the two. As late as 2001 it was still causing pretty major problems. Indeed, arguably, given Berlin remains the poorest of Germany’s major cities, it still is.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,856

    I see the Daily Telegraph is talking up the UK economy averting recession in figures due out tomorrow.

    BJ has the Brexit supporting media working overtime in their efforts to disseminate propaganda to support the PM. But what if they are wrong and the economy has stalled or even worse in recession? Added to which, can the credibility of the Brexit supporting media be sustained when they are advocating a policy "Brexit" which will mean a smaller economy than would have been the case had we stayed in the EU...

    Since the Telegraph and Mail etc are not newspapers but Tory activists - an integral and important part of the campaign - perhaps they should be subject to campaign finance rules?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    nico67 said:

    Am I the only one which hoped there’d be no exit polling for the GE .

    I think it’s much more fun to not know those projections and just see how the night unfolds .

    All part of the fun of election night. I wonder, if Curtice makes another excellent prediction a peerage must surely be in the offing? :p
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,856
    nico67 said:

    It says a lot when Labour will be happy to see a poll that only has them down 8 points .

    Is there one?

    BOOM!

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    ydoethur said:

    I'll give you a straighforward take on what I am hearing on the doorsteps. This is a betting site - no point in spouting partisan bollocks if people lose money on it.

    I'll remind you of what I said in 2015 - that the LibDems in the SW were getting a shellacking. In 2017 I said that the Tories were doing great in Torbay - they stuck 11k on their majority.

    What themes I'm hearing so far in 2019 in Totnes:

    - Corbyn is toxic - raised spontaneously by multiple voters

    - Get Brexit Done chimes with the times

    - Swinson is not cutting through with Revoke, which is thought unfair to the 17.4m who voted for Brexit

    - I have only had 2 voters reference the Brexit Party - and they were quickly turned back to the blues

    - Dr Sarah Wollaston is a "waste of space" - she should have submitted to a by-election when she defected

    - oh, and "all you Tories are fucking arseholes"

    :D

    You do not normally report the last one :)

    A few kudos for doing it this time ;)
    I personally felt it was TMI. I don’t need to know the sexual proclivities of Devon Tories...
    ALLEGED sexual proclivities, please.....
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    nichomar said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket

    Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.

    If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.

    I actually think that this time the grand coalition’ will happen Felipe will tell them to park party politics for 24 months and do what is best for the country. The rise in the ultra right vote will be concern for all and make them think
    At some point they are going to have to have a government that lasts even without a clear single winner, it gets a bit ridiculous otherwise
    If Spain don’t really have a government what does that do to post WA Brexit negotiations?
    It will have little effect. On leaving to transistion at the end of January 2020 ( subject to Boris winning) all negotiations re-commence with Barnier, not the member states
    The Negotiations are - but the ratification of the final deal is not - in fact in some countries (Belgium is 1 from memory) individual regions will have what amounts to a complete veto.

    And in some cases that veto could come with a large car factory remaining open at say the expense of Vauxhall.

    But it's not surprising that the biggest supporters of a rapid deal don't understand the steps required for a deal to be finalised.
    We will not leave transition at the end of 2020 unless it’s no deal, if we leave by 2025 it will be a miracle but never fear there is a reason why TBP will withdraw and the ERG are happy.
    Unless we leave on December 31st 2020 we will be paying whatever the EU needs to fill its budget deficit alongside every other golden pig the EU desires.

    Put that way are you so sure we won't be leaving with No Deal then? I can't see Boris willingly paying £5bn a year or whatever they demand.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Quincel said:

    nunu2 said:

    There was a poll for a group called "Towns are important" or some such.

    They had a poll out showing a 5% tory lead in the towns they polled, does anyone have a link?

    Can't find tables but the Centre For Towns poll was done by YouGov and did indeed show a 5% Tory lead in 'ex industrial towns'.

    https://twitter.com/centrefortowns/status/1193457116805320705
    That's a 9% swing Lab to Con in ex-industrial towns.
    Isn’t that 1997 levels of swing?
  • Evening all and excluding the exit poll from Sir John Curtice and chums, what do fellow PBers think will be the first result to act as a straw in the wind to the way the election has gone? I seem to remember in either 2015 or 2017 Sunderland Central was being promoted as a potential marker.

    % drop in the Labour vote in Sunderland South would be interesting, as would % increase in LD vote, which was <1000 in '15 and '17.

    Could be an indicator of whether LabLeavers/ReLeavers are flowing to Boris, whilst Lab/Con remainers are going to Swinson, in the northern heartlands.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.

    https://www.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1193175260008505345

    Labour is broken institutionally.

    You do not need the last word. Labour is broken

    I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
    This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
    Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.

    Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?

    I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
    The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.

    There are no balanced opinions on PB
    I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch.
    The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
    I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    PAging @edmundintokyo , @rcs1000

    Bit of an 'out there' request but does anyone have a Coinbase account with some crypto.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I bet this dude even thinks about going to the lav in Brexit metaphors.

    https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/1193259681256558592?s=20

    Also failing to mention that they immediately joined the European Community.
    Also wrong, as they did not leave the Warsaw Pact until the DDR was dissolved on 3rd October 1990. He’s confusing it with the opening of the border and the demolition of the Berlin Wall, which was 30 years ago last Friday.
    I remember the economic travails of the former Soviet Union states and their 'red' satellite states endured for years after the collapse of communism. Serious hardship ensued and the disruption from leaving an economic union should not be underestimated.
    East Germany did a lot better than the rest, of course, because it didn’t just leave COMECON, it was absorbed into West Germany and by extension the EC.

    But it was still a costly and difficult process to reintegrate the two. As late as 2001 it was still causing pretty major problems. Indeed, arguably, given Berlin remains the poorest of Germany’s major cities, it still is.
    Indeed, just in the last few weeks I noticed a TV program report in which they were highlighting the ongoing difference between standard of living and life expectancy when contrasting former DDR with West Germany in 2019.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Quincel said:

    nunu2 said:

    There was a poll for a group called "Towns are important" or some such.

    They had a poll out showing a 5% tory lead in the towns they polled, does anyone have a link?

    Can't find tables but the Centre For Towns poll was done by YouGov and did indeed show a 5% Tory lead in 'ex industrial towns'.

    https://twitter.com/centrefortowns/status/1193457116805320705
    That's a 9% swing Lab to Con in ex-industrial towns.
    -23 for Labour

    Ouch

    But they really, really deserve to get beaten badly at the election

    Perhaps then sanity can return
  • First projections in Spain based on 26% of votes counted show PP and VOX under-performing polls, PSOE doing slightly better and C’s down to 10 seats from 47. It’s LibDems 2015 for them.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    eek said:

    nichomar said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    nichomar said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Ironically if no PSOE PP deal agreed then Catalan nationalists hold the balance of power in the exit polls, even as the PP and Vox increase their vote on a hardline Spanish unity ticket

    Casado has burnt his bridges with both Citizens and VOX since April so it may be for both him and Sanchez the Spanish version of a "grand coalition" has some appeal. It would make VOX the leading opposition party which is basically how it started with the likes of Lega and the Freedom Party and the AfD.

    If the old parties combine to keep the new populist party out of power it just allows them to grow stronger in opposition.

    I actually think that this time the grand coalition’ will happen Felipe will tell them to park party politics for 24 months and do what is best for the country. The rise in the ultra right vote will be concern for all and make them think
    At some point they are going to have to have a government that lasts even without a clear single winner, it gets a bit ridiculous otherwise
    If Spain don’t really have a government what does that do to post WA Brexit negotiations?
    It will have little effect. On leaving to transistion at the end of January 2020 ( subject to Boris winning) all negotiations re-commence with Barnier, not the member states
    The Negotiations are - but the ratification of the final deal is not - in fact in some countries (Belgium is 1 from memory) individual regions will have what amounts to a complete veto.

    And in some cases that veto could come with a large car factory remaining open at say the expense of Vauxhall.

    But it's not surprising that the biggest supporters of a rapid deal don't understand the steps required for a deal to be finalised.
    We will not leave transition at the end of 2020 unless it’s no deal, if we leave by 2025 it will be a miracle but never fear there is a reason why TBP will withdraw and the ERG are happy.
    Unless we leave on December 31st 2020 we will be paying whatever the EU needs to fill its budget deficit alongside every other golden pig the EU desires.

    Put that way are you so sure we won't be leaving with No Deal then? I can't see Boris willingly paying £5bn a year or whatever they demand.
    Well if he wants a deal as good as we currently have it will cost
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    PaulM said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.

    https://www.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1193175260008505345

    Labour is broken institutionally.

    You do not need the last word. Labour is broken

    I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
    This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
    Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.

    Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?

    I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
    The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.

    There are no balanced opinions on PB
    I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch.
    The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
    I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
    David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.
  • PaulM said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.

    https://www.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1193175260008505345

    Labour is broken institutionally.

    You do not need the last word. Labour is broken

    I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
    This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
    Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.

    Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?

    I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
    The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.

    There are no balanced opinions on PB
    I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch.
    The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
    I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
    David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.
    I put £10 on NOM on the strength of that.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    kinabalu said:

    I see the Daily Telegraph is talking up the UK economy averting recession in figures due out tomorrow.

    BJ has the Brexit supporting media working overtime in their efforts to disseminate propaganda to support the PM. But what if they are wrong and the economy has stalled or even worse in recession? Added to which, can the credibility of the Brexit supporting media be sustained when they are advocating a policy "Brexit" which will mean a smaller economy than would have been the case had we stayed in the EU...

    Since the Telegraph and Mail etc are not newspapers but Tory activists - an integral and important part of the campaign - perhaps they should be subject to campaign finance rules?
    Different accounting entities, so unfortunately even if it could be proved they were acting 'hand in glove' I doubt they could be restrained. Besides they would argue they are selling a product or service people demand, whereas I would argue they are slowly brainwashing people into accepting a worse economic outcome for little gain...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Evening all and excluding the exit poll from Sir John Curtice and chums, what do fellow PBers think will be the first result to act as a straw in the wind to the way the election has gone? I seem to remember in either 2015 or 2017 Sunderland Central was being promoted as a potential marker.

    Any of the three Sunderland seats which are normally first will or should show what to expect in the North leave seats certainly, but you'd need markers in the South, London, Scotland and the Midlands to get a good overview
    If Landslide is 100 seats majority then look for Bolsover to fall
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    I see the Daily Telegraph is talking up the UK economy averting recession in figures due out tomorrow.

    BJ has the Brexit supporting media working overtime in their efforts to disseminate propaganda to support the PM. But what if they are wrong and the economy has stalled or even worse in recession? Added to which, can the credibility of the Brexit supporting media be sustained when they are advocating a policy "Brexit" which will mean a smaller economy than would have been the case had we stayed in the EU...

    I wonder whether the Telegraph will be able to reclaim it's reputation as a newspaper when this election is over or if it will always be The Borisgraph?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    edited November 2019

    David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.

    I put £10 on NOM on the strength of that.

    He was very close, wasn’t he? He said he thought it wouldn’t be possible for her to get 325 - and it wasn’t.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I bet this dude even thinks about going to the lav in Brexit metaphors.

    https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/1193259681256558592?s=20

    Also failing to mention that they immediately joined the European Community.
    Also wrong, as they did not leave the Warsaw Pact until the DDR was dissolved on 3rd October 1990. He’s confusing it with the opening of the border and the demolition of the Berlin Wall, which was 30 years ago last Friday.
    I remember the economic travails of the former Soviet Union states and their 'red' satellite states endured for years after the collapse of communism. Serious hardship ensued and the disruption from leaving an economic union should not be underestimated.
    East Germany did a lot better than the rest, of course, because it didn’t just leave COMECON, it was absorbed into West Germany and by extension the EC.

    But it was still a costly and difficult process to reintegrate the two. As late as 2001 it was still causing pretty major problems. Indeed, arguably, given Berlin remains the poorest of Germany’s major cities, it still is.
    I believe that the voting differences between East and West are very marked. That must represent something.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    ydoethur said:

    David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.

    I put £10 on NOM on the strength of that.

    He was very close, wasn’t he? He said he thought it wouldn’t be possible for her to get 325 - and it wasn’t.
    He was absolutely spitting feathers that night
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    PaulM said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.

    https://www.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1193175260008505345

    Labour is broken institutionally.

    You do not need the last word. Labour is broken

    I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
    This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
    Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.

    Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?

    I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
    The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.

    There are no balanced opinions on PB
    I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch.
    The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
    I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
    David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.
    Everyone thought David's account had been hacked! :D
  • Evening all and excluding the exit poll from Sir John Curtice and chums, what do fellow PBers think will be the first result to act as a straw in the wind to the way the election has gone? I seem to remember in either 2015 or 2017 Sunderland Central was being promoted as a potential marker.

    Any of the three Sunderland seats which are normally first will or should show what to expect in the North leave seats certainly, but you'd need markers in the South, London, Scotland and the Midlands to get a good overview
    If Landslide is 100 seats majority then look for Bolsover to fall
    I've seen two articles this weekend suggesting Bolsover is highly vulnerable. End of days stuff for t'Labour Party if so.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    On Topic:

    If Boris wins a majority why would Labour need a LEAVE leader and a REMAIN leader? If we'll just leave and that will be that.

    If Lab wants to run two leaders it would have to be on REJOIN/Stay Out basis. Remain/Leave will be done!
  • PaulM said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.

    https://www.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1193175260008505345

    Labour is broken institutionally.

    You do not need the last word. Labour is broken

    I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
    This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
    Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.

    Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?

    I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
    The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.

    There are no balanced opinions on PB
    I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch.
    The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
    I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
    David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.
    That was the moment I knew Theresa had blown it

    In fact probably the most stand out moment for me on PB
  • ydoethur said:

    I bet this dude even thinks about going to the lav in Brexit metaphors.

    https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/1193259681256558592?s=20

    Also failing to mention that they immediately joined the European Community.
    Also wrong, as they did not leave the Warsaw Pact until the DDR was dissolved on 3rd October 1990. He’s confusing it with the opening of the border and the demolition of the Berlin Wall, which was 30 years ago last Friday.
    I remember the economic travails of the former Soviet Union states and their 'red' satellite states endured for years after the collapse of communism. Serious hardship ensued and the disruption from leaving an economic union should not be underestimated.
    It's still going on in places like Ukraine and Georgia
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    Evening all and excluding the exit poll from Sir John Curtice and chums, what do fellow PBers think will be the first result to act as a straw in the wind to the way the election has gone? I seem to remember in either 2015 or 2017 Sunderland Central was being promoted as a potential marker.

    Any of the three Sunderland seats which are normally first will or should show what to expect in the North leave seats certainly, but you'd need markers in the South, London, Scotland and the Midlands to get a good overview
    If Landslide is 100 seats majority then look for Bolsover to fall
    I believe that Newcastle was first in 2017.
  • Just over 50% of votes counted and PSOE projected to win one more seat than in April. The left bloc ahead of the right.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Does anyone know the best way to reclaim your money from cheeky utility companies?

    I left Ovo on 23rd October and they’re sitting on over £700 of my money, and still collecting direct debits (i cancelled yesterday).

    They are telling me it will take “4-6 weeks to issue a final statement” and then “another week” to refund me any monies owed.

    They’ve given me some weasel excuse about that being a ‘standard procedure’. I want them to pull their finger out and stop using my money to aid the cash flow of their business. I bet they’ve had my final meter readings for just as long as my new provider has, which I sent in on 22nd October.

    Any merit in threatening them with the small claims court?

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/money/2019/may/04/energy-switchers-to-receive-compensation-for-delayed-refunds
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    ydoethur said:

    David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.

    I put £10 on NOM on the strength of that.

    He was very close, wasn’t he? He said he thought it wouldn’t be possible for her to get 325 - and it wasn’t.
    He was absolutely spitting feathers that night
    It was very strange, because I knew we were piling on extra votes in Torbay.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Was looking for that comment by DH, but couldn’t find it. Did however come across this thread header from mid-June 2017 by @SouthamObserver:

    So, to return to the opening line of this piece: if I were a Conservative, I would not be in despair or sorting out my assets to keep them from John McDonnell’s grasp just yet. Instead, I would be asking myself whether places like Leamington and Warwick, Peterborough and Lincoln, Canterbury and Ipswich have irrevocably decided to pledge their allegiances to the red flag, and whether others such as Hastings, Hendon and Milton Keynes really are about to join them.

    Having done that, I might just permit myself a smile. Surely, I’d conclude, if the Tories ran a better campaign next time, with a more engaging, confident leader and some positive policies that appeal to voters in the centre, they might just have half a chance. After all, they will be facing a party that gives every impression of having convinced itself that at the next election the British are set do something they have never before done in peacetime: turn dramatically to the left.



    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/06/26/labour-hubris-equals-tory-hope/

    Could be prescient...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Evening all and excluding the exit poll from Sir John Curtice and chums, what do fellow PBers think will be the first result to act as a straw in the wind to the way the election has gone? I seem to remember in either 2015 or 2017 Sunderland Central was being promoted as a potential marker.

    The Sunderland seats are useful - especially if they aren't able to declare super early.

    But I think Swindon North is the seat to watch for. It declared fairly early in 2015 and 2017. In the former it showed a swing to the Tories and in 2017 it showed a swing to Labour. On both occasions it felt like it pointed towards what was happening nationally.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    Labour to spend £1.3 Trillion apparently. All those doubters thinking their lavish spending pledges were just hot air were dreaming. I just heard Javid-not a stranger to splashing the cash himself-confirming it on Marr. I warned that Labour would never be undersold. The public don't care where the money's coming from as long as it comes.
  • Here are the top five Labour target seats in Scotland (all currently SNP-held), with their current best prices. Looking grim for Leonard & Co:

    Glasgow East 3/1
    Motherwell & Wishaw 3/1
    Glasgow South West 7/2
    Airdrie & Shotts 4/1
    Lanark & Hamilton East 7/1

    And to think how many threads Mike has posted regarding the impending SNP massacre in these seats. I wonder how much he has staked on SLab?

    Oddschecker tells me SNP are available at 1/5 in Inverclyde with Labour 3/1
    I meant top five in terms of smallest swing required. Interesting that Inverclyde, which requires a larger swing than the listed seats, is relatively short.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    GIN1138 said:

    On Topic:

    If Boris wins a majority why would Labour need a LEAVE leader and a REMAIN leader? If we'll just leave and that will be that.

    If Lab wants to run two leaders it would have to be on REJOIN/Stay Out basis. Remain/Leave will be done!

    I thought you once said you might vote for Corbyn and Labour a couple of years ago?
  • GIN1138 said:

    On Topic:

    If Boris wins a majority why would Labour need a LEAVE leader and a REMAIN leader? If we'll just leave and that will be that.

    If Lab wants to run two leaders it would have to be on REJOIN/Stay Out basis. Remain/Leave will be done!

    Evening Gin

    You will recall Sky's yoygov daily tracker they announced to plot and keep reporting it

    Well, the latest yougov in inconjunction with Sky has been published but not a whiff of it on Sky today

    But of course it shows a growing conservative lead and they would not like that

    It will be interesting to see if they reference it tomorrow
  • Charles said:

    Does anyone know the best way to reclaim your money from cheeky utility companies?

    I left Ovo on 23rd October and they’re sitting on over £700 of my money, and still collecting direct debits (i cancelled yesterday).

    They are telling me it will take “4-6 weeks to issue a final statement” and then “another week” to refund me any monies owed.

    They’ve given me some weasel excuse about that being a ‘standard procedure’. I want them to pull their finger out and stop using my money to aid the cash flow of their business. I bet they’ve had my final meter readings for just as long as my new provider has, which I sent in on 22nd October.

    Any merit in threatening them with the small claims court?

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/money/2019/may/04/energy-switchers-to-receive-compensation-for-delayed-refunds
    Thanks Charles. They are getting around that by not issuing the bill for six weeks (a consumer demand, but something Ofgem refused to insist on) so they thereby do meet the criteria of issuing a full refund within 2 weeks, but make you wait up to seven weeks from the switch to receive it!

    It's a racket.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265

    Just over 50% of votes counted and PSOE projected to win one more seat than in April. The left bloc ahead of the right.

    Exit poll rubbish then?
  • First projections in Spain based on 26% of votes counted show PP and VOX under-performing polls, PSOE doing slightly better and C’s down to 10 seats from 47. It’s LibDems 2015 for them.

    Couldn’t have happened to a bigger bunch of C’s.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047

    I bet this dude even thinks about going to the lav in Brexit metaphors.

    https://twitter.com/MarcherLord1/status/1193259681256558592?s=20

    It was a little bit more complicated than that.
  • Roger said:

    Labour to spend £1.3 Trillion apparently. All those doubters thinking their lavish spending pledges were just hot air were dreaming. I just heard Javid-not a stranger to splashing the cash himself-confirming it on Marr. I warned that Labour would never be undersold. The public don't care where the money's coming from as long as it comes.

    I wouldn't necessarily believe Conservative Party estimates of Labour's spending programme.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092

    Roger said:

    Labour to spend £1.3 Trillion apparently. All those doubters thinking their lavish spending pledges were just hot air were dreaming. I just heard Javid-not a stranger to splashing the cash himself-confirming it on Marr. I warned that Labour would never be undersold. The public don't care where the money's coming from as long as it comes.

    I wouldn't necessarily believe Conservative Party estimates of Labour's spending programme.
    Not sure I'd believe Labour Party estimates of Labour's spending programme.
  • PaulM said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.

    https://www.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1193175260008505345

    Labour is broken institutionally.

    You do not need the last word. Labour is broken

    I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
    This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
    Whatever

    Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?

    I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
    The Tory activists on here are only ever going to run Corbyn down. It probably doesn't matter if Corbyn is good or bad, they will only ever report the worst. On Corbyn's side, all Tories are evil, exploitative, baby-eating scum.

    There are no balanced opinions on PB
    I think expecting those who have been canvassing to be impartial is a bit of a stretch.
    The opinions that I most trust (in terms of their predictions at least) are those prepared to bet significant sums on the outcome. They are not alway right, but they are less lightly to be swayed by personal political priorities.
    I think Nick Palmer once said that if he wouldn't post anything on here about canvassing that was false, but equally if he went canvassing and it was a disaster for Labour then he might keep it to himself, which seems fair enough. (Apologies if I have this wrong Nick).
    David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.
    That was the moment I knew Theresa had blown it

    In fact probably the most stand out moment for me on PB
    I shat a brick, hoped it wasn't true.. and then ignored it.

    That cost me £400.
  • ydoethur said:

    David Herdson famously reported a shit canvassing session on the night before the 2017 election. Kudos to him for that.

    I put £10 on NOM on the strength of that.

    He was very close, wasn’t he? He said he thought it wouldn’t be possible for her to get 325 - and it wasn’t.
    Don't forget @Cyclefree

    She got it spot on with a similar post too.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    Charles said:

    Does anyone know the best way to reclaim your money from cheeky utility companies?

    I left Ovo on 23rd October and they’re sitting on over £700 of my money, and still collecting direct debits (i cancelled yesterday).

    They are telling me it will take “4-6 weeks to issue a final statement” and then “another week” to refund me any monies owed.

    They’ve given me some weasel excuse about that being a ‘standard procedure’. I want them to pull their finger out and stop using my money to aid the cash flow of their business. I bet they’ve had my final meter readings for just as long as my new provider has, which I sent in on 22nd October.

    Any merit in threatening them with the small claims court?

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/money/2019/may/04/energy-switchers-to-receive-compensation-for-delayed-refunds
    Thanks Charles. They are getting around that by not issuing the bill for six weeks (a consumer demand, but something Ofgem refused to insist on) so they thereby do meet the criteria of issuing a full refund within 2 weeks, but make you wait up to seven weeks from the switch to receive it!

    It's a racket.
    They ought to be nationalised! :wink:

    I do wonder about some of these companies. Twice in the last three years my supplier has gone out of business. The first time was just after I had switched, so I just had to wait a month of two to get some money I was owed. The second time was two months into my one year fixed deal. That was a real pain because the regulator appoints a supplier of last resort, who then puts you on a very uncompetitive tariff and you aren't allowed to switch until they've got all their ducks in a line (and they take forever).

    My current supplier wanted the money front loaded in the first six months after which my DD halved. Fine. But after the eighth month they put it back up to the original amount saying I was using more than they had anticipated (I wasn't). I'm in credit to the tune of c.£250 but they just ignore my emails. Come January I'll be finding another supplier and will go through the rigmarole of getting a refund.

    And then the whole cycle will start again.
  • Just over 50% of votes counted and PSOE projected to win one more seat than in April. The left bloc ahead of the right.

    Exit poll rubbish then?

    It wasn’t an exit poll. It was a tracking poll. It does seem to have given the right too many seats, but it’s more or less margin of error stuff. The big story is the collapse of C’s. It’s LibDems 2015 stuff. The party’s tack to the right and refusal to do a deal with PSOE turns out to have been a disastrous mistake.

  • Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    The Labour candidate who celebrates the deaths of political opponents has passed the Labour interview and will still remain a candidate for parliament.

    https://www.twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1193175260008505345

    Labour is broken institutionally.

    You do not need the last word. Labour is broken

    I am coming round to the opinion it will not only be brexit that sees Boris win, it will be the combination of his brexit deal and widescale dislike, even fear, of Corbyn
    This stuff isn't getting much of an airing though. I bet if you asked most of the public, they would have no idea about Ms Sultana, more a general well Labour have been accused of anti-Jew stuff in the past.
    Whatever it is - anti-semitism, pro-IRA, pro-the UK's enemies, bat-shit crazy economic policies - or a combination of bits of all - Corbyn is toxic on the doorstep this time. Much more so than 2017.

    Is he that toxic? Genuine question this - in some polls Labour has been getting 30%. The election is a month away. Or is it more that he appears to have no clear Brexit policy and Boris does so he suffers as the old guy who’s been around for a while who’s unclear vs the new bouncy guy saying he’ll get it done?

    I just wonder how much of the smelly stuff around him is really making a difference .
    The anti-semitism makes a difference to some of this broader fan following and softer activist base.

    Other than that, not much. Don't knows will drift back to Labour and firm up a decent voteshare for him in spite of him, not because of him.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1193633712853962753

    Guido tweeting that Keith Vaz is not going to stand at Leicester East. Good.
  • Roger said:

    Labour to spend £1.3 Trillion apparently. All those doubters thinking their lavish spending pledges were just hot air were dreaming. I just heard Javid-not a stranger to splashing the cash himself-confirming it on Marr. I warned that Labour would never be undersold. The public don't care where the money's coming from as long as it comes.

    The public don't mind saddling their grandchildren with trillions in public debt as long as they can leave them a couple of grand tax-free in their wills. That's why GE campaigns are carefully crafted to appeal to the lowest common denominator, and then simplified a bit more - just in case.
  • Just over 50% of votes counted and PSOE projected to win one more seat than in April. The left bloc ahead of the right.

    Exit poll rubbish then?

    It wasn’t an exit poll. It was a tracking poll. It does seem to have given the right too many seats, but it’s more or less margin of error stuff. The big story is the collapse of C’s. It’s LibDems 2015 stuff. The party’s tack to the right and refusal to do a deal with PSOE turns out to have been a disastrous mistake.

    Baying for the imprisonment of political opponents hardly showed them in the best light.
  • Keith Vaz has announced he will be standing down at the election https://t.co/JU3uYqey4M https://t.co/vI6UjiNShw
  • Morales has resigned in Bolivia.
  • tlg86 said:

    Charles said:

    Does anyone know the best way to reclaim your money from cheeky utility companies?

    I left Ovo on 23rd October and they’re sitting on over £700 of my money, and still collecting direct debits (i cancelled yesterday).

    They are telling me it will take “4-6 weeks to issue a final statement” and then “another week” to refund me any monies owed.

    They’ve given me some weasel excuse about that being a ‘standard procedure’. I want them to pull their finger out and stop using my money to aid the cash flow of their business. I bet they’ve had my final meter readings for just as long as my new provider has, which I sent in on 22nd October.

    Any merit in threatening them with the small claims court?

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/money/2019/may/04/energy-switchers-to-receive-compensation-for-delayed-refunds
    Thanks Charles. They are getting around that by not issuing the bill for six weeks (a consumer demand, but something Ofgem refused to insist on) so they thereby do meet the criteria of issuing a full refund within 2 weeks, but make you wait up to seven weeks from the switch to receive it!

    It's a racket.
    They ought to be nationalised! :wink:

    I do wonder about some of these companies. Twice in the last three years my supplier has gone out of business. The first time was just after I had switched, so I just had to wait a month of two to get some money I was owed. The second time was two months into my one year fixed deal. That was a real pain because the regulator appoints a supplier of last resort, who then puts you on a very uncompetitive tariff and you aren't allowed to switch until they've got all their ducks in a line (and they take forever).

    My current supplier wanted the money front loaded in the first six months after which my DD halved. Fine. But after the eighth month they put it back up to the original amount saying I was using more than they had anticipated (I wasn't). I'm in credit to the tune of c.£250 but they just ignore my emails. Come January I'll be finding another supplier and will go through the rigmarole of getting a refund.

    And then the whole cycle will start again.
    Sorry to hear that. That sounds a nightmare.

    They certainly shouldn't be nationalised. Prices are cheaper and service is much better than under nationalisation. And the shift to renewables is working well too. There's lots of innovative start-ups in the sector undercutting the Big Six. My heart would sink at the universal shiteness of just going back to British Gas.

    But, they do need to be properly regulated. Or they will totally take the piss.
  • General Election Nowcast (10th Nov):

    CON: 363 (-5), 39.2% (+1.4)
    LAB: 189 (+5), 27.8% (+0.9)
    SNP: 50 (=), 3.3% (+0.1)
    LDM: 25 (=), 15.8% (-0.1)

    See the graphics for the full results.
    Changes w/ 5th Nov.

    Support me on https://t.co/8SlnLyh9g4 https://t.co/pGQRWJ9hS2
  • Keith Vaz moves to permanent job at Curry's. Mp no more.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019

    Keith Vaz has announced he will be standing down at the election https://t.co/JU3uYqey4M https://t.co/vI6UjiNShw

    To concentrate on his washing machine business? Is it going to be his daughter who takes over?

    The fact the party was still deliberating if to kick him out is rather telling.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Does anyone know the best way to reclaim your money from cheeky utility companies?

    I left Ovo on 23rd October and they’re sitting on over £700 of my money, and still collecting direct debits (i cancelled yesterday).

    They are telling me it will take “4-6 weeks to issue a final statement” and then “another week” to refund me any monies owed.

    They’ve given me some weasel excuse about that being a ‘standard procedure’. I want them to pull their finger out and stop using my money to aid the cash flow of their business. I bet they’ve had my final meter readings for just as long as my new provider has, which I sent in on 22nd October.

    Any merit in threatening them with the small claims court?

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/money/2019/may/04/energy-switchers-to-receive-compensation-for-delayed-refunds
    Thanks Charles. They are getting around that by not issuing the bill for six weeks (a consumer demand, but something Ofgem refused to insist on) so they thereby do meet the criteria of issuing a full refund within 2 weeks, but make you wait up to seven weeks from the switch to receive it!

    It's a racket.
    If you had a variable payment authority set up you might be able to get the last payment back from your bank if it was taken without authority (ie after you had left)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Banterman said:

    Keith Vaz moves to permanent job at Curry's. Mp no more.

    He'll probably be given a peerage.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    Morales has resigned in Bolivia.

    He'd lost the military.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Morales has resigned in Bolivia.

    Do you have a source? I’m not finding anything beyond the fresh elections and army threats at the moment.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
  • kle4 said:

    Banterman said:

    Keith Vaz moves to permanent job at Curry's. Mp no more.

    He'll probably be given a peerage.
    That would really be taking the piss.
  • Evening all and excluding the exit poll from Sir John Curtice and chums, what do fellow PBers think will be the first result to act as a straw in the wind to the way the election has gone? I seem to remember in either 2015 or 2017 Sunderland Central was being promoted as a potential marker.

    Were you still up for Skinner?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Keith Vaz has announced he will be standing down at the election https://t.co/JU3uYqey4M https://t.co/vI6UjiNShw

    To concentrate on his washing machine business? Is it going to be his daughter who takes over?

    The fact the party was still deliberating if to kick him out is rather telling.
    He’s going to be a spin merchant.

    He has been escorted from politics.

    He couldn’t coke with the pressure [that’s enough - Ed]
  • ydoethur said:

    Morales has resigned in Bolivia.

    Do you have a source? I’m not finding anything beyond the fresh elections and army threats at the moment.
    BBC News just now
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    General Election Nowcast (10th Nov):

    CON: 363 (-5), 39.2% (+1.4)
    LAB: 189 (+5), 27.8% (+0.9)
    SNP: 50 (=), 3.3% (+0.1)
    LDM: 25 (=), 15.8% (-0.1)

    See the graphics for the full results.
    Changes w/ 5th Nov.

    Support me on https://t.co/8SlnLyh9g4 https://t.co/pGQRWJ9hS2

    Tories advance, Labour retreats, Labour gets more seats.

    Huh?
  • ydoethur said:

    Morales has resigned in Bolivia.

    Do you have a source? I’m not finding anything beyond the fresh elections and army threats at the moment.
    BBC Breaking:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-50370013
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Morales has resigned in Bolivia.

    He'd lost the military.
    Not simply resigning and restanding then?

    I assume he's still plenty popular, but it feels like a critical moment when he lost a referendum on term limits then went ahead and abolished them anyway (ok, a court said so) when the referendum went against him.
  • Could this gain traction? Raab in trouble?

    Foreign Office 'threatened and intimidated' family of Harry Dunn

    https://news.sky.com/story/amp/foreign-office-threatened-and-intimidated-family-of-harry-dunn-11859043
  • Two hours since the polls closed in Spain and over 80% of the votes have already been counted. Looks like the left bloc has definitely won most seats, but not enough for a majority without help from regional parties.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    ydoethur said:

    Morales has resigned in Bolivia.

    Do you have a source? I’m not finding anything beyond the fresh elections and army threats at the moment.
    BBC Breaking:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-50370013
    Thanks.

    That leaves Maduro pretty well isolated now, doesn’t it? Argentina I suppose, but the rest of the Chavez cabal seems to have been removed one way or another.
  • Two hours since the polls closed in Spain and over 80% of the votes have already been counted. Looks like the left bloc has definitely won most seats, but not enough for a majority without help from regional parties.

    Echoes of Corbyn in Sturgeon’s pocket.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2019
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Morales has resigned in Bolivia.

    Do you have a source? I’m not finding anything beyond the fresh elections and army threats at the moment.
    BBC Breaking:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-50370013
    Thanks.

    That leaves Maduro pretty well isolated now, doesn’t it? Argentina I suppose, but the rest of the Chavez cabal seems to have been removed one way or another.
    Lets hope his british mate doesnt expand the club to 2 in a few weeks.
This discussion has been closed.