Morning all, bit of a password problem earlier so thought I had been banned again! I fully expect that if Boris wins on 12th December and gets a decent majority to enable him to pass the Brexit bill, in the coming year the Tory poll ratings will resemble the big dipper on the Blackpool Pleasure Park ride. However I remember Margaret Thatcher went through similar highs and lows. In addition remember if he does get returned with a majority, I fully expect the Government to finally push through the last boundary changes which will reduce the HoC to 600 seats.
Most people, especially those wanting to remain, seem to think if Boris achieves a workable majority the country will go to hell in a hand cart as we cut the umbilical cord with the EU. To be honest if Boris does get a majority the boost to the pound and investment will be immediate and I would expect moves towards free ports and low corporation tax rates, possibly at 12%, to compete with Dublin
It could actually be quite a good five years and I am not pessimistic.
However, Corbyn is an entirely different matter and stopping him and his marxist/communist policies is more important to me than any Brexit outcome
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
It was when they transformed into a Neoliberal party in the 1980s.
Benpointer said: "Really? I wonder how many people will actually think this is going to help their lives one iota."
I think they will see it as a disincentive to come to UK, putting less pressure on public services and on the public purse. Presumably Uk subjects won`t be able to claim benefits from EU countries post Brexit. Personally I voted remain, but I just feel that this will prove a very popular manifesto pledge.
The distinction between low-skilled and high-skilled migrants is doing a lot of heavy lifting. I'd expect business to demand that curry chefs, fruit pickers and burger flippers are designated as high-skill occupations, and posh Tories will doubtless want to include their stereotypical Polish plumbers and builders.
My guess is this is one election pledge that can be classed as a political promise never intended to be implemented. That will, of course, not stop it working as an election pledge for the next three and a half weeks.
Businesses won't need to do that, as their curry chefs and fruit pickers will have a job offer won't they?
I'm probably very late on this, but I've just seen that Labour's estimate of the annual cost of running the broadband network was based on taking a 30 year NPV and dividing by 30.
I knew there were plenty of thick people involved at the top of the party, but I assumed at least some would be able to sense check for the others.
"EU migrants who come to the UK after Brexit will be barred from claiming benefits for five years under plans to end free movement expected to be announced in the Tory manifesto."
Wow - this is going to be really popular.
Why specifically EU?
Are migrants from Somalia going to be allowed benefits?
Anyway, the free broadband plan is crazy - just not coherent. I wonder if this was put to a referendum what the result would be?
Agree with David's piece. The bottom line is that the future is bleak, very bleak. Sad times...
Free stuff would win at a canter. Along with somebody else paying for it.
The real contest starts once the Labour free stuff is out in print. Not only owls but maybe broadband, student tuition fees, pensions for WASPI women, social care, prescriptions, plus popular nationalisations, all paid for by the miraculous richest 5% and Amazon. The deceptions involved are no less and no greater than the Tory Brexit promises, past present and future.
Free Corbynband has caused a social media meltdown so either it is really, really unpopular or CCHQ fears voters will quite like the idea so has let loose the dogs of war twitter.
Nah - I think it’s negative retail politics
It’s a small thing that people can understand but they don’t mind paying for at the moment and don’t get why it makes sense it should be free/run by the government
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Plenty of us have criticised Johnson for his personal behaviour over the years, but when his two opponents are a racist terrorist-supporting communist from the 1970s, and someone who thinks democracy should only be allowed to work when the people give the ‘correct’ answer, what choice do we have?
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Jezza has been married 3 times - it’s not remotely relevant.
Thankfully most voters don’t factor in private lives nor spend their time scolding others for any perceived variation from a puritan “norm”.
maaarsh said: "I knew there were plenty of thick people involved at the top of the party, but I assumed at least some would be able to sense check for the others."
Argumentum ad populum: thickies + thickies = more thickies.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
When they realised that nobody cares about such things any more. They were slow learners, but they learned eventually.
The Tory manifesto suggestion on FOM suggests that continues for high skills . Will the benefit ban also apply to non EU nationals or is this just more vindictive treatment of fellow Europeans .
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Moral blackmail does not work.
I know you follow the Christian faith so I would just quote
Johnson's rating *is* unusually stong, although relatively normal for a honeymoon period); May's was exceptional. These are the periods in Mori's 42-year series where a sitting PM has had a positive rating:
That does look like quite a lot but remember that the series has around 500 surveys in it now. Note also the lack of recent positive scores. Since the Iraq War, 16 years ago, there've only been five periods, covering only 22 months.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
I was heavily involved in the Boris Mayoral campaigns of 2008 and 2012. People are drawn to him like the pied piper..the media cant understand why as cant his critics..but magnetism he has in spades. You underestimate him at your peril... That is the mistake of those that laugh and try and undermine him.
The Tory manifesto suggestion on FOM suggests that continues for high skills . Will the benefit ban also apply to non EU nationals or is this just more vindictive treatment of fellow Europeans .
I think you;ll find the tories are the only major party who don;t want to make a distinction between the EU and RoW, so the odds on it singling out 1 group are pretty slim.
I tried on my old account and have found I have been logged out and when I try and log in get the following message:
"You need to reset your password. This is most likely because an administrator recently changed your account information. Click here to reset your password."
Any techies know what this means? Has my old vanilla account been breached?
I had the same. I clicked on the link and it worked.
Thank you everybody. I had the same and it's reassuring to know it's a wide-spread thing.
Another excellent article from @david_herdson. Many thanks. I expect others have observed that maybe it's not so much defying gravity as being suspended ridiculously from a wire none of us can see.
Good header DH, I hadn't realised that satisfaction with the government was so low. -55% is quite something.
I was forecasting a substantial Tory majority, on a low turnout, but I think the degree of anger against the government is too much for that.
Anger at "Government" is probably just shorthand for anger at the whole of the political system. Many people wouldn't make a party political distinction that "The Tories have been shit at handling Brexit but everyone else in Westminster is fine...." They have all been shit.
I disagree. It's not shorthand for the system - I think the government is deservedly unpopular.
The 2010-2015 coalition achieved little when compared to the first administrations after 1979 and 1997, at least it served a purpose that people could recognise (and either support or oppose).
Since 2015 the tories have simply wasted time - almost five years - without achieving anything except Brexit related stasis. I think that is the reason why Boris is able to defy gravity - he offers a simple message to break the stasis and move on.
That the deadlock, the zombification of government, is almost wholly attributable to Boris and Gove's decision to knife Cameron in 2016 seems to have been conveniently forgotten. People are blaming the tories (hence -55%) but exempting Boris.
His mop was a great metaphor.
We have three choices in England:
Tory - we'll clear up the mess we created, then we'll do more of the same, which is OK if you're OK.
Labour - we'll break the status quo and do things that are shiny and new if you're young or if the neoliberal consensus isn't working for you, old hat and unworkable and terrifying dangerous if you're old or if you're doing OK.
LibDems - we are the status quo and we'll do the centreist managerial stuff that worked OK between 2001 and 2015, like a penny on income tax for blah blah blah and staying in the EU.
That sounds like a sensible starting point. Immigrants should either be net contributors to the Exchequer, or fill a skills gap in the workforce. The reason productivity has been so poor in recent years is that unskilled or low skilled labour has been cheaper than capital investment.
I am not sure I buy your argument on productivity. It may be a factor, but productivity growth has been bad in the last few years in most advanced economies, with very different immigration profiles. Many immigrants are employed because they are more productive than the indigenous population. The Tory policy will I am sure be popular but will be ripe for abuse and won't have much effect because EU immigrants don't come here to collect benefits, and British voters who think they do are usually projecting their own motivations.
How is this an Australian points system if high skilled workers can come to the UK and look for work . And on low skilled surely this means companies can just advertise overseas . If this is the policy then it looks quite a climbdown.
The Tory manifesto suggestion on FOM suggests that continues for high skills . Will the benefit ban also apply to non EU nationals or is this just more vindictive treatment of fellow Europeans .
It’s long applied to non EU - my wife had “no recourse to public funds” stamped on her visa
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Jezza has been married 3 times - it’s not remotely relevant.
Thankfully most voters don’t factor in private lives nor spend their time scolding others for any perceived variation from a puritan “norm”.
Jezza has good relationships with his children, BoZo isn't even sure how many he has.
I don't see what the problem is insisting low skilled migrants only get in if they have a job offer. From 2004 to 2015 I owned and ran a recruitment consultancy which basically brought in EU migrants to work in the UK. Every candidate I sourced was given a written job offer, paid exactly the same as UK citizens working in the same job, had accommodation sourced and sorted before arrival (even to the point of some employers buying flats or residential caravans to house them) and were met on arrival or had their travel plans checked etc. Not a single person I sourced was cheating a UK national out of a job as each client had advertised unsuccessfully in UK job platforms to source labour.
Now the truth is most EU migrants are not coming to the UK and it has nothing to do with Brexit. The peak was late 2012-13. By then the increase in wages at home and improved exchange rates meant that in real terms the advantage of working in the UK had fallen dramatically. In additional professional graduates were being told they wouldn't be considered by large companies in their native country because they had "deserted and gone to the UK". By way of example, when I first started, £1= 7+zlotys and when I finished it was nearer £1 = 3.5 zlotys. Wages in Poland had more than doubled so basically £1 earned in 2004 was in real terms worth only 25 pence in Poland by 2013-4. Those who come now tend to do so for long term aims rather than short term contracts. The current exception is for Romanian and Bulgarian agricultural workers who are the ones who will harvest our fruit and vegetables over the next few years and they will be replaced by Croats, Montenegrans, Serbs, Macedonians and probably Albanians as each of these countries join the EU making travel outside their home countries easier and less expensive.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Jezza has been married 3 times - it’s not remotely relevant.
Thankfully most voters don’t factor in private lives nor spend their time scolding others for any perceived variation from a puritan “norm”.
Jezza has good relationships with his children, BoZo isn't even sure how many he has.
Aye, you'd be much more positive about Boris if he was busy getting his kids jobs with Saj
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Jezza has been married 3 times - it’s not remotely relevant.
Thankfully most voters don’t factor in private lives nor spend their time scolding others for any perceived variation from a puritan “norm”.
Jezza has good relationships with his children, BoZo isn't even sure how many he has.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Moral blackmail does not work.
I know you follow the Christian faith so I would just quote
'He who is without sin first cast the stone'
I would regard these as more significant than average sins. More significant though from the Christian perspective is Johnsons complete lack of repentance.
After freeing the adultress threatened by stoning, Jesus instructed her to sin no more. Johnson flaunts his new mistress. There is no repentance or acknowledgement of his personal failures at all.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Jezza has been married 3 times - it’s not remotely relevant.
Thankfully most voters don’t factor in private lives nor spend their time scolding others for any perceived variation from a puritan “norm”.
Jezza has good relationships with his children, BoZo isn't even sure how many he has.
Aye, you'd be much more positive about Boris if he was busy getting his kids jobs with Saj
Acknowledging their existence would be a nice start.
Amusing article but wasn't there a large, long, persistent gap between the popularity of Cameron and his government? And also a persistent but less large gap between the popularity of Blair and his?
Much less extreme than +2 to -55 IIRC. A third warning light is that Conservative and Johnson popularity have plunged in the higher-educated (levels 3-4) sector of the population. I don't mean that in the sense of "Tories are thick", but I think that this sector is often a leading indicator - it's people on average who read more stuff, follow events more closely, etc. Sometimes the rest of the population take a similar view when they focus on the issue
Yes, the gap of 57 points is extremely high. Anything over 40 is highly unusual. The only times there's been a higher disparity is, interestingly, for John Major, in Feb-May 1991 and then Jul 1991 - fewer than than 1% of the surveys. Major, of course, went on to win the 1992 election and then it all fell apart horribly thereafter, over Europe.
Good header DH, I hadn't realised that satisfaction with the government was so low. -55% is quite something.
I was forecasting a substantial Tory majority, on a low turnout, but I think the degree of anger against the government is too much for that.
Anger at "Government" is probably just shorthand for anger at the whole of the political system. Many people wouldn't make a party political distinction that "The Tories have been shit at handling Brexit but everyone else in Westminster is fine...." They have all been shit.
A great piece. My sense is that Johnson will win the election but that pretty soon afterwards he and his government will be among the most unpopular in living memory. The economy is slowing sharply, Brexit will be a disaster and the government will unleash a wave of Thatcherite shock therapy policies not in their manifesto in response. Meanwhile in Johnson they have a leader who commands neither the trust nor the respect of the public, and whose only real claims on public affections are a kind of superficial bonhomie and the fact he isn't Jeremy Corbyn. I think this is 1992: the Tories win a fourth term and quickly wish they hadn't.
I've always thought that the election just before Brexit will be a good one to lose and I think it will be. The bonus of a Johnson win is that, hopefully, Corbyn then gets replaced by an electable leader.
In all honesty though I have no idea what sort of government Johnson will provide. There is none of the ideology that underpinned the Thatcher years. I'm not even sure which way he will jump on Brexit next December when it becomes clear that there is no time to conclude a trade deal.
Financial prudence will be out of the window for sure. He might turn out to be a Cameroon liberal but how does he do that with Patel and Raab occupying 2 of the 3 big offices of state?
I agree with you that I think the government's ratings will plummet very quickly. Excellent header piece
Good header DH, I hadn't realised that satisfaction with the government was so low. -55% is quite something.
I was forecasting a substantial Tory majority, on a low turnout, but I think the degree of anger against the government is too much for that.
Anger at "Government" is probably just shorthand for anger at the whole of the political system. Many people wouldn't make a party political distinction that "The Tories have been shit at handling Brexit but everyone else in Westminster is fine...." They have all been shit.
The Bolton fire shines a light on this post 2015 zombie adminstration.
It would have been a simple matter to sort out all this cladding with HMG funding, then recoup the cash from the freeholders later. And if the cash couldn't be recouped, well at least HMG would be protecting its citizens.
I suspect the unasked question about immigration won't be about who will be able or unable to come once we leave the EU (which of course won't be on 13/12/19 or even 31/1/20) but those who are already here and came under the "looking for work" category.
The other aspect is the point at which, while accepting the need for the highly skilled migrant, you draw the line when it comes to family in terms of them settling here as well.
As always with Conservative policy announcements, the headline froth serves only to leave the serious questions unanswered.
On topic and a rare experience for me agreeing with most of a David Herdson piece on a Saturday morning. It's not of course just Boris Johnson who isn't looking down - for a lot of people, "Brexit" has stopped being about the rational argument of the terms on which our future political and economic relationship with the EU will operate and ensuring those are best for the long term future of the country and it's about "getting it done" or more accurately wishing it would all somehow go away as we are tired, bored and frustrated with it.
People in that frame of mind will agree to anything - the problem is for all his bluster about a "big free trade deal", I simply son't see how that is achievable within a few months. We will then either have to extend Transition further or leave to WTO rules on 31/12/20 which is of course what the No Dealers want and, I suspect though have no evidence, the carrot dangled in front of Nigel Farage to persuade him to withdraw so many of his candidates.
I agree Johnson has had a poor week and is now looking brittle (just as Cameron did on occasions). He is so desperate to be liked and to be seen to be "in touch" with "ordinary" people but the more he tries the worse he looks. It probably won't matter in terms of the GE but I'm not looking forward to a Johnson majority Government and I suspect it won't be long before a number of those who will enthusiastically support him on 12/12 will be suffering a serious case of "buyer's remorse".
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Jezza has been married 3 times - it’s not remotely relevant.
Thankfully most voters don’t factor in private lives nor spend their time scolding others for any perceived variation from a puritan “norm”.
Jezza has good relationships with his children, BoZo isn't even sure how many he has.
Having watched the John Curtice clip below, I`m still not clear on what happens in the scenario that CP wins most seats but doesn`t get a majority (and can`t cobble one together).
In this scenario, if the opposiiton parties coalesced in some way in order to form a majority, would they be able to form a government ahead of CP running along on a minority basis?
I`ve asked this question before and some of you, inc HYUFD I think, said that CP, as incumbents, will have "first dibs" on going forward on a minority basis even if a majority is present elewhere.
However, Curtice is saying that this election boils down to Tory majority + Brexit v coalition + referendum. He doesn`t mention the possibility of Tory minority government.
Excellent piece. Johnson is being propped up by a big, red Corbyn inflatable. Gravity's pull will come into play once that deflates after 12th December. The hole the PM is digging for himself, his party and the country is getting deeper by the day. The simple truth is that he cannot keep on lying forever. Once the reality of his Brexit kicks in, the fall will be relatively swift and utterly spectacular.
Q of the day, is Prince Andrew trying to bullshit us or himself? In the snippet I heard almost within the same sentence he says he stayed with convicted sex offender Epstein as a matter of convenience and then because he was 'too honourable'.
The question in my head is what made him such a great friend of Epstein in the first place? Does anyone really believe any of his story? With any luck one of the first things Charles will do will be kick Andrew and his whole grasping family into touch.
I don't see what the problem is insisting low skilled migrants only get in if they have a job offer. From 2004 to 2015 I owned and ran a recruitment consultancy which basically brought in EU migrants to work in the UK. Every candidate I sourced was given a written job offer, paid exactly the same as UK citizens working in the same job, had accommodation sourced and sorted before arrival (even to the point of some employers buying flats or residential caravans to house them) and were met on arrival or had their travel plans checked etc. Not a single person I sourced was cheating a UK national out of a job as each client had advertised unsuccessfully in UK job platforms to source labour.
Now the truth is most EU migrants are not coming to the UK and it has nothing to do with Brexit. The peak was late 2012-13. By then the increase in wages at home and improved exchange rates meant that in real terms the advantage of working in the UK had fallen dramatically. In additional professional graduates were being told they wouldn't be considered by large companies in their native country because they had "deserted and gone to the UK". By way of example, when I first started, £1= 7+zlotys and when I finished it was nearer £1 = 3.5 zlotys. Wages in Poland had more than doubled so basically £1 earned in 2004 was in real terms worth only 25 pence in Poland by 2013-4. Those who come now tend to do so for long term aims rather than short term contracts. The current exception is for Romanian and Bulgarian agricultural workers who are the ones who will harvest our fruit and vegetables over the next few years and they will be replaced by Croats, Montenegrans, Serbs, Macedonians and probably Albanians as each of these countries join the EU making travel outside their home countries easier and less expensive.
Given we now have almost full employment, how is all the extra infrastucture that the Tories are promising to deliver over the coming years going to be built?
Good morning everyone. Having spent some time in Yorkshire and Lancashire this week I can assure everyone that Boris is plenty popular with ordinary people up here. Despite what some naysayers say the slogan Get Brexit Done is resonating with lots of people who are sick to the back teeth of the last 3 years paralysis due to parliamentary shenanigans over Brexit.
If the point is that at some point in the future Boris will fail, then I agree.
If it's that he'll fall flat on his face within days of winning GE2019, then I don't agree.
If he gets a decent majority he'll be seen as a winner, he'll be able to re-shuffle his cabinet, the markets will like the certainty, and he'll get a bit of a honeymoon boost.
The next danger point will be the last 2-3 months of 2020 as he tries to ratify a full FTA quickly.
Q of the day, is Prince Andrew trying to bullshit us or himself? In the snippet I heard almost within the same sentence he says he stayed with convicted sex offender Epstein as a matter of convenience and then because he was 'too honourable'.
A great piece. My sense is that Johnson will win the election but that pretty soon afterwards he and his government will be among the most unpopular in living memory. The economy is slowing sharply, Brexit will be a disaster and the government will unleash a wave of Thatcherite shock therapy policies not in their manifesto in response. Meanwhile in Johnson they have a leader who commands neither the trust nor the respect of the public, and whose only real claims on public affections are a kind of superficial bonhomie and the fact he isn't Jeremy Corbyn. I think this is 1992: the Tories win a fourth term and quickly wish they hadn't.
I've always thought that the election just before Brexit will be a good one to lose and I think it will be. The bonus of a Johnson win is that, hopefully, Corbyn then gets replaced by an electable leader.
In all honesty though I have no idea what sort of government Johnson will provide. There is none of the ideology that underpinned the Thatcher years. I'm not even sure which way he will jump on Brexit next December when it becomes clear that there is no time to conclude a trade deal.
Financial prudence will be out of the window for sure. He might turn out to be a Cameroon liberal but how does he do that with Patel and Raab occupying 2 of the 3 big offices of state?
I agree with you that I think the government's ratings will plummet very quickly. Excellent header piece
I think the extension request has to be six months before the scheduled end date ie by 31/6 so in reality only five months to establish what the future relationship will be. Of course it could be that they are planning to claim such excellent progress by 31/6 that no extension is required and then a few weeks later announce that ‘unfortunately’ talks have broken down and WTO rules are the only option whilst blaming the intransigent EU.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
When they realised that nobody cares about such things any more. They were slow learners, but they learned eventually.
Excellent piece. Johnson is being propped up by a big, red Corbyn inflatable. Gravity's pull will come into play once that deflates after 12th December. The hole the PM is digging for himself, his party and the country is getting deeper by the day. The simple truth is that he cannot keep on lying forever. Once the reality of his Brexit kicks in, the fall will be relatively swift and utterly spectacular.
The reality of his brexit will be next to no change, and for most people that will be fine as long as their vote has been respected in some sense. The scare stories have been layed on so thick a bit of light famine and looting is largely priced in anyway.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Moral blackmail does not work.
I know you follow the Christian faith so I would just quote
'He who is without sin first cast the stone'
A man who abandons his children and cheats on his wife as she is being treated for cancer is not fit to hold public office. No-one is perfect, but very few are as untrustworthy, mendacious, dissolute & devoid of basic human empathy as Boris Johnson. He has led a shameful life. The only thing he has going for him is not being Jeremy Corbyn.
Excellent piece. Johnson is being propped up by a big, red Corbyn inflatable. Gravity's pull will come into play once that deflates after 12th December. The hole the PM is digging for himself, his party and the country is getting deeper by the day. The simple truth is that he cannot keep on lying forever. Once the reality of his Brexit kicks in, the fall will be relatively swift and utterly spectacular.
The reality of his brexit will be next to no change, and for most people that will be fine as long as their vote has been respected in some sense. The scare stories have been layed on so thick a bit of light famine and looting is largely priced in anyway.
I don't see what the problem is insisting low skilled migrants only get in if they have a job offer. From 2004 to 2015 I owned and ran a recruitment consultancy which basically brought in EU migrants to work in the UK. Every candidate I sourced was given a written job offer, paid exactly the same as UK citizens working in the same job, had accommodation sourced and sorted before arrival (even to the point of some employers buying flats or residential caravans to house them) and were met on arrival or had their travel plans checked etc. Not a single person I sourced was cheating a UK national out of a job as each client had advertised unsuccessfully in UK job platforms to source labour.
Now the truth is most EU migrants are not coming to the UK and it has nothing to do with Brexit. The peak was late 2012-13. By then the increase in wages at home and improved exchange rates meant that in real terms the advantage of working in the UK had fallen dramatically. In additional professional graduates were being told they wouldn't be considered by large companies in their native country because they had "deserted and gone to the UK". By way of example, when I first started, £1= 7+zlotys and when I finished it was nearer £1 = 3.5 zlotys. Wages in Poland had more than doubled so basically £1 earned in 2004 was in real terms worth only 25 pence in Poland by 2013-4. Those who come now tend to do so for long term aims rather than short term contracts. The current exception is for Romanian and Bulgarian agricultural workers who are the ones who will harvest our fruit and vegetables over the next few years and they will be replaced by Croats, Montenegrans, Serbs, Macedonians and probably Albanians as each of these countries join the EU making travel outside their home countries easier and less expensive.
It's pretty clear to me that the fundamentals that drive our immigration numbers are the strength of our jobs market and the strength of the pound.
Well the first test of Boris popularity will come on Tuesday night 1 hour of political boxing. Of interest is that the first 1/2 hour is solely devoted to Brexit. If the interviewer gets their questions right this could be 30mins of buttock clenching squirming from Corbyn with Boris being optimistic. Domestic issues next 30 mins.
I assume that there will be some sort of polling, audience reaction afterwards and personally I would not be surprised to see a KO by BoJo.
Excellent piece. Johnson is being propped up by a big, red Corbyn inflatable. Gravity's pull will come into play once that deflates after 12th December. The hole the PM is digging for himself, his party and the country is getting deeper by the day. The simple truth is that he cannot keep on lying forever. Once the reality of his Brexit kicks in, the fall will be relatively swift and utterly spectacular.
Indeed and the question then becomes how the Opposition (in all its forms) can take advantage of it.
Assuming the WA gets passed and we move into transition on February 1st 2020, the battle ground will switch to the future trade and political relationship with the EU. As I understand the Johnson line, we will leave at the end of Transition on 31/12/20 whether there is a future trade deal or agreed PD in place or not.
It may be the Conservatives believe a substantial Johnson majority will provide leverage in the trade talks and the FTA will be an easy win - I'm much less convinced especially with both Germany and France closing in on elections. If progress is slow, we'll be back to extensions or walking out (2020 - the sequel to 2019).
It will be interesting to see if the new Conservative intake resolutely follows Johnson or whether a new rebel grouping (pro Trade Deal anti leaving without one) emerges to make the Parliamentary arithmetic more interesting. There was a majority against No Deal in the last Parliament - will that be the case in the next?
Labour (and the LDs) won't have time for profound post-election introspection. I suspect you and I both hope Corbyn will go and his successor will begin the long journey back to credibility but will face internal resistance the defeat of which will boost them electorally. A dynamic new centrist opposition leader set against a struggling jaded Boris Johnson may well give our politics a very different look in the early 2020s.
If the Tories had any sense, if they win a majority, get Boris to own Brexit, then do what the Tories do best, knife the leader (are we allowed to use this terminology these days?).
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Kate McCann of Sky who accompanies Boris said that he is very popular generally with the public with lots of selfiies and an extraordinary number of school children wanting a selfie with him. She said of course he has the odd dissenting voice but far more positive encounters.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
G, like all Tories they are flown in , meet hand picked Tory audience and fly out. In Scotland they even use the back doors. They meet few real public people.
If the point is that at some point in the future Boris will fail, then I agree.
If it's that he'll fall flat on his face within days of winning GE2019, then I don't agree.
If he gets a decent majority he'll be seen as a winner, he'll be able to re-shuffle his cabinet, the markets will like the certainty, and he'll get a bit of a honeymoon boost.
The next danger point will be the last 2-3 months of 2020 as he tries to ratify a full FTA quickly.
Reshuffle?
Are there any more swivel-eyed loons who aren't already in the Cabinet?
Oh, hang on - Philip Davies! Andrea Jenkyns! Argh!
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Moral blackmail does not work.
I know you follow the Christian faith so I would just quote
'He who is without sin first cast the stone'
A man who abandons his children and cheats on his wife as she is being treated for cancer is not fit to hold public office. No-one is perfect, but very few are as untrustworthy, mendacious, dissolute & devoid of basic human empathy as Boris Johnson. He has led a shameful life. The only thing he has going for him is not being Jeremy Corbyn.
I am not excusing Boris and all you say may be correct but there are many in public office who would fail if morality was a criterea
Usually when that happens it's because some sort of data hack has happened at some point. Probably not the case here but would be nice to know for sure.
The Met Office becoming more confident in the prediction of settled weather for polling day.
"A transition to more settled weather seems most likely for at least the southern half of the UK. Although periods of rain are possible here, they will probably be considerably patchier and less frequent than the west and northwest where spells of wind and rain interspersed with showers will predominate. Showers may turn wintry over high ground. Frost and freezing fog, which may be slow to clear, is most likely overnight under clear skies in the east and south. Temperatures are expected to be around average, or just above, for the time of year."
Bojo will surely win this because, unusually for an incumbent, he represents hope and change, whereas Jezza has lost whatever fizz he once had, and is now taken to be old-school, and dull. Hence the yawns to yesterday’s broadband announcement. Two years ago this would have been seen as radical and daring. Now it is seen as crass and fantastic. Bojo’s popularity will only collapse when Labour get rid of Corbyn, and replace him with thier own hopey change character. That may be a while. Recession, disgrace, discovery of more illegitimate children and lovers won’t be enough. That is factored in. Bojo isn’t popular now anyway so he hasn’t got much further to fall.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
I was heavily involved in the Boris Mayoral campaigns of 2008 and 2012. People are drawn to him like the pied piper..the media cant understand why as cant his critics..but magnetism he has in spades. You underestimate him at your peril... That is the mistake of those that laugh and try and undermine him.
I suspect his charisma is what makes the folks that don't like him so deranged in the vitreol they throw in his direction.
Take yesterday as a comparison. Commie Cable is obviously a bonkers idea with the typical Corbyn McDonnell lack of understanding of enterprise and markets on display. They make ridiculous statements about how much it would cost. In anti Boris speak, they are lying the second they start talking about, but that's politics. Nobody actually calls them liars, which they are.
Having watched the John Curtice clip below, I`m still not clear on what happens in the scenario that CP wins most seats but doesn`t get a majority (and can`t cobble one together).
In this scenario, if the opposiiton parties coalesced in some way in order to form a majority, would they be able to form a government ahead of CP running along on a minority basis?
I`ve asked this question before and some of you, inc HYUFD I think, said that CP, as incumbents, will have "first dibs" on going forward on a minority basis even if a majority is present elewhere.
However, Curtice is saying that this election boils down to Tory majority + Brexit v coalition + referendum. He doesn`t mention the possibility of Tory minority government.
Can some explain the rules to me again?
Surely Prof. Sir John Curtice, First Lord of Statistica and Chief Minimaxer of Polynomia cover it in the video? Minority Labour cobbled together for 2nd Ref purposes. Presumably the LDs and SNP and (maybe) DUP will hold their noses for that as it gets them want they want.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Kate McCann of Sky who accompanies Boris said that he is very popular generally with the public with lots of selfiies and an extraordinary number of school children wanting a selfie with him. She said of course he has the odd dissenting voice but far more positive encounters.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
G, like all Tories they are flown in , meet hand picked Tory audience and fly out. In Scotland they even use the back doors. They meet few real public people.
When Bozo encountered real people in South Yorkshire they told him where to go.
Bojo will surely win this because, unusually for an incumbent, he represents hope and change, whereas Jezza has lost whatever fizz he once had, and is now taken to be old-school, and dull. Hence the yawns to yesterday’s broadband announcement. Two years ago this would have been seen as radical and daring. Now it is seen as crass and fantastic. Bojo’s popularity will only collapse when Labour get rid of Corbyn, and replace him with thier own hopey change character. That may be a while. Recession, disgrace, discovery of more illegitimate children and lovers won’t be enough. That is factored in. Bojo isn’t popular now anyway so he hasn’t got much further to fall.
The Tories are going to need a bit more than plant a few trees type policies to look like hope and change.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
Moral blackmail does not work.
I know you follow the Christian faith so I would just quote
'He who is without sin first cast the stone'
A man who abandons his children and cheats on his wife as she is being treated for cancer is not fit to hold public office. No-one is perfect, but very few are as untrustworthy, mendacious, dissolute & devoid of basic human empathy as Boris Johnson. He has led a shameful life. The only thing he has going for him is not being Jeremy Corbyn.
This is all true, and I agree.
Unfortunately for those opposed to him, Boris made a good impression by bringing home a new Brexit deal* on time that no-one thought he ever could.
He's been a very lucky general.
(*yes, it's flawed, but people are voting on optics here not details)
Excellent piece. Johnson is being propped up by a big, red Corbyn inflatable. Gravity's pull will come into play once that deflates after 12th December. The hole the PM is digging for himself, his party and the country is getting deeper by the day. The simple truth is that he cannot keep on lying forever. Once the reality of his Brexit kicks in, the fall will be relatively swift and utterly spectacular.
The reality of his brexit will be next to no change, and for most people that will be fine as long as their vote has been respected in some sense. The scare stories have been layed on so thick a bit of light famine and looting is largely priced in anyway.
I have always predicted the damage of Brexit as corrosion rather than catastrophe, so in the short term don't expect folk will notice much change, just that the areas and sectors that believe that Brexit is an answer to their decay will find that continues.
Brexit is not an opportunity, it is an opportunity cost.
As the Tories have roundly opposed geographic and generational redistribution of wealth, those coalfield and coastal Brexit voters are in for a real shafting.
If the point is that at some point in the future Boris will fail, then I agree.
If it's that he'll fall flat on his face within days of winning GE2019, then I don't agree.
If he gets a decent majority he'll be seen as a winner, he'll be able to re-shuffle his cabinet, the markets will like the certainty, and he'll get a bit of a honeymoon boost.
The next danger point will be the last 2-3 months of 2020 as he tries to ratify a full FTA quickly.
Except he isn't an opposition leader coming into Government.
The Conservatives have been in Government for nine years and Boris is the third Prime Minister in that period and yet each time the leader is changed the confidence trick works in that people believe the Government has changed.
It's a remarkable lesson of and for one-party democracy. The Party is always in power but the leaders change periodically so there are new faces, it looks new and people think it's new. I think that's how the Japanese LDP survived for so long - periodic changes of leader and superficial re-invention.
The trick won't last forever and as we know longevity in Government leads to an inevitable defeat so whether it's in 2024 or later, the Conservatives will one day lose and, I suspect, lose big.
I don't see what the problem is insisting low skilled migrants only get in if they have a job offer. From 2004 to 2015 I owned and ran a recruitment consultancy which basically brought in EU migrants to work in the UK. Every candidate I sourced was given a written job offer, paid exactly the same as UK citizens working in the same job, had accommodation sourced and sorted before arrival (even to the point of some employers buying flats or residential caravans to house them) and were met on arrival or had their travel plans checked etc. Not a single person I sourced was cheating a UK national out of a job as each client had advertised unsuccessfully in UK job platforms to source labour.
One problem is that employers and workers who would have been able to find each other just fine will now have to pay for the services of a parasitical rent-seeking middleman who will either deal with all the bureaucracy of job offer letters before arrival etc, or if this process is too slow and/or restrictive, hire the worker themselves, then farm them out to the actual employer.
PS Overall immigration seems to be good for both immigrants and native workers, but I don't think what you say about advertising on UK job platforms proves there's no adverse effect on native workers because the job may have been fillable by a native with higher wages or better conditions.
If the point is that at some point in the future Boris will fail, then I agree.
If it's that he'll fall flat on his face within days of winning GE2019, then I don't agree.
If he gets a decent majority he'll be seen as a winner, he'll be able to re-shuffle his cabinet, the markets will like the certainty, and he'll get a bit of a honeymoon boost.
The next danger point will be the last 2-3 months of 2020 as he tries to ratify a full FTA quickly.
Reshuffle?
Are there any more swivel-eyed loons who aren't already in the Cabinet?
Oh, hang on - Philip Davies! Andrea Jenkyns! Argh!
Boris has no more love for the ERG than any of wing of the party, and his sympathies (such as they are) are with Cameroon-esque type Conservatism.
He'll be the best friend any politician could be to the ERG, for precisely as long as he needs them.
The worst result would probably be a majority of 10, because he'd be forced to dance to their tune. If he knocks it out the park and get 360 MPs, and a majority of 70+, his Government would actually probably end up being more reasoned and moderate, with the fringe of the ERG sidelined.
If the point is that at some point in the future Boris will fail, then I agree.
If it's that he'll fall flat on his face within days of winning GE2019, then I don't agree.
If he gets a decent majority he'll be seen as a winner, he'll be able to re-shuffle his cabinet, the markets will like the certainty, and he'll get a bit of a honeymoon boost.
The next danger point will be the last 2-3 months of 2020 as he tries to ratify a full FTA quickly.
Beibheirli_C said: "Minority Labour cobbled together for 2nd Ref purposes. Presumably the LDs and SNP and (maybe) DUP will hold their noses for that as it gets them want they want."
That doesn`t answer my question. What if the solution you describe is available but the CP say "NO we are incumbents and we will run along on a minority basis". Who gets first dibs?
If the point is that at some point in the future Boris will fail, then I agree.
If it's that he'll fall flat on his face within days of winning GE2019, then I don't agree.
If he gets a decent majority he'll be seen as a winner, he'll be able to re-shuffle his cabinet, the markets will like the certainty, and he'll get a bit of a honeymoon boost.
The next danger point will be the last 2-3 months of 2020 as he tries to ratify a full FTA quickly.
Except he isn't an opposition leader coming into Government.
The Conservatives have been in Government for nine years and Boris is the third Prime Minister in that period and yet each time the leader is changed the confidence trick works in that people believe the Government has changed.
It's a remarkable lesson of and for one-party democracy. The Party is always in power but the leaders change periodically so there are new faces, it looks new and people think it's new. I think that's how the Japanese LDP survived for so long - periodic changes of leader and superficial re-invention.
The trick won't last forever and as we know longevity in Government leads to an inevitable defeat so whether it's in 2024 or later, the Conservatives will one day lose and, I suspect, lose big.
I agree, the Conservatives will eventually lose big. Very big.
But, they get a free pass from Labour for now who've been electing un-electable leaders, now, for precisely the same period of time they've been in office and keep doubling-down to the Left each time they lose.
2019 offers Colne Valley electors a positive plethora of brexity options (Con, UKIP, BXP, Yorkshires) which tempted me to think that Lab might defy UNS and hold this seat at 5/4.
However it does look as if the 2015 UKIP vote swung LAB in 2017.
2015: Con 44% Lab 35% UKIP 10%
2017: Con 46% Lab 48% UKIP 0%
I've decided therefore that the brexity parties will hurt LAB more than CON, and that CON, turbocharged by UNS and an attendant LAB->LIBDEM swing, will regain this seat very easily at 4/6.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
I was heavily involved in the Boris Mayoral campaigns of 2008 and 2012. People are drawn to him like the pied piper..the media cant understand why as cant his critics..but magnetism he has in spades. You underestimate him at your peril... That is the mistake of those that laugh and try and undermine him.
Interesting that Johnson rampers only seem to emphasise qualities like charisma, magnetism and optimism (like Big G). None of that has any bearing on whether he will be a good PM.
Those qualities will help him win an election but different qualities are going to be far more important once he is there and that is where his problems start. Bluster and bon-hommie only take you so far.
I have always predicted the damage of Brexit as corrosion rather than catastrophe, so in the short term don't expect folk will notice much change, just that the areas and sectors that believe that Brexit is an answer to their decay will find that continues accelerates.
As the Tories have roundly opposed geographic and generational redistribution of wealth, those coalfield and coastal Brexit voters are in for a real shafting.
I have always predicted the damage of Brexit as corrosion rather than catastrophe, so in the short term don't expect folk will notice much change, just that the areas and sectors that believe that Brexit is an answer to their decay will find that continues accelerates.
A Brexit deal will be corrosive, but if Boris gets us to the 2020 WTO exit, that will be catastrophic
As the Tories have roundly opposed geographic and generational redistribution of wealth, those coalfield and coastal Brexit voters are in for a real shafting.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Kate McCann of Sky who accompanies Boris said that he is very popular generally with the public with lots of selfiies and an extraordinary number of school children wanting a selfie with him. She said of course he has the odd dissenting voice but far more positive encounters.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
G, like all Tories they are flown in , meet hand picked Tory audience and fly out. In Scotland they even use the back doors. They meet few real public people.
Having watched the John Curtice clip below, I`m still not clear on what happens in the scenario that CP wins most seats but doesn`t get a majority (and can`t cobble one together).
In this scenario, if the opposiiton parties coalesced in some way in order to form a majority, would they be able to form a government ahead of CP running along on a minority basis?
I`ve asked this question before and some of you, inc HYUFD I think, said that CP, as incumbents, will have "first dibs" on going forward on a minority basis even if a majority is present elewhere.
However, Curtice is saying that this election boils down to Tory majority + Brexit v coalition + referendum. He doesn`t mention the possibility of Tory minority government.
Can some explain the rules to me again?
My understanding - and I'm happy to be corrected - is that the Queen has to ask the person most likely to assemble a majority for a vote of confidence. In practice, that person has always been a member of parliament - and a member of the H of C for so long that's effectively part of the Constitution as well. One key overriding principle, though, is that the Queen can't look political - so her advisors may suggest, if Johnson's ahead of Labour, that the head of the largest party takes first dibs to be on the safe side.
Irrelevant, though. Johnson would lose the first VONC, so we'd go to stage 2 almost immediately. Swinson would repeat her refusal to countenance Labour's Trot minority, and Labour, perforce, would blink first. Swinson, Sturgeon, Lucas and - let's guess Starmer - would huddle, we'd end up with Someone Like Starmer (SLS) running a minority government, possibly in coalition with the SNP, which the LDs would support only when it behaves itself.
There aren't rules for most of this, so the haggling would prob take time. Probably, therefore, Ms S and Ms S would agree with SLS that SLS would temporarily run an emergency administration, intended to do nothing but react to crises, until we had final agreement.
In any case: after a third EU referendum, there'd probably be another GE anyway. This time dominated by a party that ISN'T committed to fucking business, and another party that ISN'T committed to recreating Venezuela.
I have always predicted the damage of Brexit as corrosion rather than catastrophe, so in the short term don't expect folk will notice much change, just that the areas and sectors that believe that Brexit is an answer to their decay will find that continues accelerates.
A Brexit deal will be corrosive, but if Boris gets us to the 2020 WTO exit, that will be catastrophic
As the Tories have roundly opposed geographic and generational redistribution of wealth, those coalfield and coastal Brexit voters are in for a real shafting.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
I was heavily involved in the Boris Mayoral campaigns of 2008 and 2012. People are drawn to him like the pied piper..the media cant understand why as cant his critics..but magnetism he has in spades. You underestimate him at your peril... That is the mistake of those that laugh and try and undermine him.
Interesting that Johnson rampers only seem to emphasise qualities like charisma, magnetism and optimism (like Big G). None of that has any bearing on whether he will be a good PM.
Those qualities will help him win an election but different qualities are going to be far more important once he is there and that is where his problems start. Bluster and bon-hommie only take you so far.
Well, for starters, he did a pretty good job getting a new deal from the EU.
Beibheirli_C said: "Minority Labour cobbled together for 2nd Ref purposes. Presumably the LDs and SNP and (maybe) DUP will hold their noses for that as it gets them want they want."
That doesn`t answer my question. What if the solution you describe is available but the CP say "NO we are incumbents and we will run along on a minority basis". Who gets first dibs?
Johnson enters the new parliament, he is immediately no confidenced, the opposition have 14 days to present a new candidate for PM who has to demonstrate through a vote of confidence that he has. They then become PM and form a government. If no one does then into another election.
Boris is a bit like Ronnie Reagan. People may not like everything he does or in our case, the government (really the residue from May's hopeless period), but he cheers you up and makes you smile. In the grey old world we live in, I suspect that counts for a lot.
In what way does he cheer people up make them smile can you give some examples because I must have missed unless you are referring to the ‘man in the next room’ videos which are hilarious.
Boris is annoying, blustering, and at times embarrassing, but he is also bubbly, optimistic, and no doubt seen as one of the lads by many, especially in the north
The exaggerated liaisons for which Boris is accused endlessly are not that different to what a lot of lads and lasses go out on a Saturday night in the hopes of happening - never did for me.
It is quite remarkable how many Tories have become apologists for the serial adulterer and procurer of abortions for his abandoned mistresses.
Even my mother, who normally is very harsh on such lowlifes, seems willing to turn a blind eye. When was it that Conservatives started turning a blind eye to such personal immorality?
I was heavily involved in the Boris Mayoral campaigns of 2008 and 2012. People are drawn to him like the pied piper..the media cant understand why as cant his critics..but magnetism he has in spades. You underestimate him at your peril... That is the mistake of those that laugh and try and undermine him.
Interesting that Johnson rampers only seem to emphasise qualities like charisma, magnetism and optimism (like Big G). None of that has any bearing on whether he will be a good PM.
Those qualities will help him win an election but different qualities are going to be far more important once he is there and that is where his problems start. Bluster and bon-hommie only take you so far.
I don't agree. Optimism and confidence are absolutely vital in government. Governments that lose them soon lose.
Beibheirli_C said: "Minority Labour cobbled together for 2nd Ref purposes. Presumably the LDs and SNP and (maybe) DUP will hold their noses for that as it gets them want they want."
That doesn`t answer my question. What if the solution you describe is available but the CP say "NO we are incumbents and we will run along on a minority basis". Who gets first dibs?
If the opposition parties can’t indicate to HM that they have an absolute majority, then they’ll have to either vote down the Queen’s Speech, or win a formal Vote of Confidence under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act when Parliament reconvenes after the election.
(I assume that high on the list of the next government with a majority, will be to replace the FTPA).
If the point is that at some point in the future Boris will fail, then I agree
The next danger point will be the last 2-3 months of 2020 as he tries to ratify a full FTA quickly.
Utterly depends on the size of majority - since 2017 the govt has been paralysed as much by its small majority as Brexit. The country would benefit from a period of stability from a decent majority.
Of course the next Brexit battleground might be the courts and the Lords - but 50 + majority will see that off.
Uncanny the way the folk on here with whom BJ is popular seem to run into folk with whom BJ is popular.
I loathe the man, though not as much as Mrs Foxy does. It made for an uncomfortable political discussion with my folks last night in Romsey. Even my dad was desperate to get off the subject, and to get back to grandchildren, pets and medical issues.
My dad usually hates public school bluffers, and my mother hates personal imorality, and fathers who abandon their children especially. Both are going to be voting for BoZo's party though, despite considering Nokes a traitor.
Interesting to see that the only literature that had come in their post was from the LD, with a good local self made businessman as candidate. No Green candidate, but there is a UKIP one. Not an impossible LD gain imo.
That Survation poll in the Economist was a real eye-opener. Along with the Workington poll, it suggests real trouble for Labour in marginal battlegrounds.
Comments
It could actually be quite a good five years and I am not pessimistic.
However, Corbyn is an entirely different matter and stopping him and his marxist/communist policies is more important to me than any Brexit outcome
I think they will see it as a disincentive to come to UK, putting less pressure on public services and on the public purse. Presumably Uk subjects won`t be able to claim benefits from EU countries post Brexit. Personally I voted remain, but I just feel that this will prove a very popular manifesto pledge.
I knew there were plenty of thick people involved at the top of the party, but I assumed at least some would be able to sense check for the others.
Are migrants from Somalia going to be allowed benefits?
It’s a small thing that people can understand but they don’t mind paying for at the moment and don’t get why it makes sense it should be free/run by the government
Jezza has been married 3 times - it’s not remotely relevant.
Thankfully most voters don’t factor in private lives nor spend their time scolding others for any perceived variation from a puritan “norm”.
Argumentum ad populum: thickies + thickies = more thickies.
I know you follow the Christian faith so I would just quote
'He who is without sin first cast the stone'
Callaghan (Mar 1977)
Callaghan (Oct 1977-Nov 1978)
Thatcher (Aug 1979)
Thatcher (May 1982-Aug 1982)
Thatcher (Nov 1982-Oct 1983)
Thatcher (Jan 1984)
Thatcher (Oct 1984)
Thatcher (Apr 1987-Dec 1987)
Thatcher (Jun 1988)
Thatcher (Aug 1988)
Major (Dec 1990-Sep 1992)
Blair (May 1997-May 2000)
Blair (Jan 2001-Mar 2001)
Blair (Jun 2001-Jan 2002)
Blair (Apr 2003)
Brown (Jul 2007-Sep 2007)
Cameron (Jun 2010-Dec 2010)
Cameron (Jun 2015)
May (Aug 2016-May 2017)
Johnson (Oct 2019)
That does look like quite a lot but remember that the series has around 500 surveys in it now. Note also the lack of recent positive scores. Since the Iraq War, 16 years ago, there've only been five periods, covering only 22 months.
People are drawn to him like the pied piper..the media cant understand why as cant his critics..but magnetism he has in spades.
You underestimate him at your peril...
That is the mistake of those that laugh and try and undermine him.
Another excellent article from @david_herdson. Many thanks. I expect others have observed that maybe it's not so much defying gravity as being suspended ridiculously from a wire none of us can see.
Good morning everyone.
Floods and NHS crises I disagree. It's not shorthand for the system - I think the government is deservedly unpopular.
The 2010-2015 coalition achieved little when compared to the first administrations after 1979 and 1997, at least it served a purpose that people could recognise (and either support or oppose).
Since 2015 the tories have simply wasted time - almost five years - without achieving anything except Brexit related stasis. I think that is the reason why Boris is able to defy gravity - he offers a simple message to break the stasis and move on.
That the deadlock, the zombification of government, is almost wholly attributable to Boris and Gove's decision to knife Cameron in 2016 seems to have been conveniently forgotten. People are blaming the tories (hence -55%) but exempting Boris.
His mop was a great metaphor.
We have three choices in England:
Tory - we'll clear up the mess we created, then we'll do more of the same, which is OK if you're OK.
Labour - we'll break the status quo and do things that are shiny and new if you're young or if the neoliberal consensus isn't working for you, old hat and unworkable and terrifying dangerous if you're old or if you're doing OK.
LibDems - we are the status quo and we'll do the centreist managerial stuff that worked OK between 2001 and 2015, like a penny on income tax for blah blah blah and staying in the EU.
Also had to change my password.
Pre-race will be up tomorrow morning, given how the timings go.
Now the truth is most EU migrants are not coming to the UK and it has nothing to do with Brexit. The peak was late 2012-13. By then the increase in wages at home and improved exchange rates meant that in real terms the advantage of working in the UK had fallen dramatically. In additional professional graduates were being told they wouldn't be considered by large companies in their native country because they had "deserted and gone to the UK". By way of example, when I first started, £1= 7+zlotys and when I finished it was nearer £1 = 3.5 zlotys. Wages in Poland had more than doubled so basically £1 earned in 2004 was in real terms worth only 25 pence in Poland by 2013-4. Those who come now tend to do so for long term aims rather than short term contracts. The current exception is for Romanian and Bulgarian agricultural workers who are the ones who will harvest our fruit and vegetables over the next few years and they will be replaced by Croats, Montenegrans, Serbs, Macedonians and probably Albanians as each of these countries join the EU making travel outside their home countries easier and less expensive.
After freeing the adultress threatened by stoning, Jesus instructed her to sin no more. Johnson flaunts his new mistress. There is no repentance or acknowledgement of his personal failures at all.
I managed to get back in
Ha Ha - true dat.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1195629709574455298?s=19
In all honesty though I have no idea what sort of government Johnson will provide. There is none of the ideology that underpinned the Thatcher years. I'm not even sure which way he will jump on Brexit next December when it becomes clear that there is no time to conclude a trade deal.
Financial prudence will be out of the window for sure. He might turn out to be a Cameroon liberal but how does he do that with Patel and Raab occupying 2 of the 3 big offices of state?
I agree with you that I think the government's ratings will plummet very quickly. Excellent header piece
It would have been a simple matter to sort out all this cladding with HMG funding, then recoup the cash from the freeholders later. And if the cash couldn't be recouped, well at least HMG would be protecting its citizens.
I suspect the unasked question about immigration won't be about who will be able or unable to come once we leave the EU (which of course won't be on 13/12/19 or even 31/1/20) but those who are already here and came under the "looking for work" category.
The other aspect is the point at which, while accepting the need for the highly skilled migrant, you draw the line when it comes to family in terms of them settling here as well.
As always with Conservative policy announcements, the headline froth serves only to leave the serious questions unanswered.
On topic and a rare experience for me agreeing with most of a David Herdson piece on a Saturday morning. It's not of course just Boris Johnson who isn't looking down - for a lot of people, "Brexit" has stopped being about the rational argument of the terms on which our future political and economic relationship with the EU will operate and ensuring those are best for the long term future of the country and it's about "getting it done" or more accurately wishing it would all somehow go away as we are tired, bored and frustrated with it.
People in that frame of mind will agree to anything - the problem is for all his bluster about a "big free trade deal", I simply son't see how that is achievable within a few months. We will then either have to extend Transition further or leave to WTO rules on 31/12/20 which is of course what the No Dealers want and, I suspect though have no evidence, the carrot dangled in front of Nigel Farage to persuade him to withdraw so many of his candidates.
I agree Johnson has had a poor week and is now looking brittle (just as Cameron did on occasions). He is so desperate to be liked and to be seen to be "in touch" with "ordinary" people but the more he tries the worse he looks. It probably won't matter in terms of the GE but I'm not looking forward to a Johnson majority Government and I suspect it won't be long before a number of those who will enthusiastically support him on 12/12 will be suffering a serious case of "buyer's remorse".
Just contemplating - all of these folk tweeting about how bad free Internet would be, while taking advantage of the free wifi in Starbucks.
Oh, and it has started to rain, so I can justify not tidying the garden.
In this scenario, if the opposiiton parties coalesced in some way in order to form a majority, would they be able to form a government ahead of CP running along on a minority basis?
I`ve asked this question before and some of you, inc HYUFD I think, said that CP, as incumbents, will have "first dibs" on going forward on a minority basis even if a majority is present elewhere.
However, Curtice is saying that this election boils down to Tory majority + Brexit v coalition + referendum. He doesn`t mention the possibility of Tory minority government.
Can some explain the rules to me again?
If it's that he'll fall flat on his face within days of winning GE2019, then I don't agree.
If he gets a decent majority he'll be seen as a winner, he'll be able to re-shuffle his cabinet, the markets will like the certainty, and he'll get a bit of a honeymoon boost.
The next danger point will be the last 2-3 months of 2020 as he tries to ratify a full FTA quickly.
In 2019, he can.
I assume that there will be some sort of polling, audience reaction afterwards and personally I would not be surprised to see a KO by BoJo.
Assuming the WA gets passed and we move into transition on February 1st 2020, the battle ground will switch to the future trade and political relationship with the EU. As I understand the Johnson line, we will leave at the end of Transition on 31/12/20 whether there is a future trade deal or agreed PD in place or not.
It may be the Conservatives believe a substantial Johnson majority will provide leverage in the trade talks and the FTA will be an easy win - I'm much less convinced especially with both Germany and France closing in on elections. If progress is slow, we'll be back to extensions or walking out (2020 - the sequel to 2019).
It will be interesting to see if the new Conservative intake resolutely follows Johnson or whether a new rebel grouping (pro Trade Deal anti leaving without one) emerges to make the Parliamentary arithmetic more interesting. There was a majority against No Deal in the last Parliament - will that be the case in the next?
Labour (and the LDs) won't have time for profound post-election introspection. I suspect you and I both hope Corbyn will go and his successor will begin the long journey back to credibility but will face internal resistance the defeat of which will boost them electorally. A dynamic new centrist opposition leader set against a struggling jaded Boris Johnson may well give our politics a very different look in the early 2020s.
Are there any more swivel-eyed loons who aren't already in the Cabinet?
Oh, hang on - Philip Davies! Andrea Jenkyns! Argh!
He's rather self-important and patronising in person, and talks down to people.
The Met Office becoming more confident in the prediction of settled weather for polling day.
"A transition to more settled weather seems most likely for at least the southern half of the UK. Although periods of rain are possible here, they will probably be considerably patchier and less frequent than the west and northwest where spells of wind and rain interspersed with showers will predominate. Showers may turn wintry over high ground. Frost and freezing fog, which may be slow to clear, is most likely overnight under clear skies in the east and south. Temperatures are expected to be around average, or just above, for the time of year."
Take yesterday as a comparison. Commie Cable is obviously a bonkers idea with the typical Corbyn McDonnell lack of understanding of enterprise and markets on display. They make ridiculous statements about how much it would cost. In anti Boris speak, they are lying the second they start talking about, but that's politics. Nobody actually calls them liars, which they are.
Unfortunately for those opposed to him, Boris made a good impression by bringing home a new Brexit deal* on time that no-one thought he ever could.
He's been a very lucky general.
(*yes, it's flawed, but people are voting on optics here not details)
Brexit is not an opportunity, it is an opportunity cost.
As the Tories have roundly opposed geographic and generational redistribution of wealth, those coalfield and coastal Brexit voters are in for a real shafting.
The Conservatives have been in Government for nine years and Boris is the third Prime Minister in that period and yet each time the leader is changed the confidence trick works in that people believe the Government has changed.
It's a remarkable lesson of and for one-party democracy. The Party is always in power but the leaders change periodically so there are new faces, it looks new and people think it's new. I think that's how the Japanese LDP survived for so long - periodic changes of leader and superficial re-invention.
The trick won't last forever and as we know longevity in Government leads to an inevitable defeat so whether it's in 2024 or later, the Conservatives will one day lose and, I suspect, lose big.
PS Overall immigration seems to be good for both immigrants and native workers, but I don't think what you say about advertising on UK job platforms proves there's no adverse effect on native workers because the job may have been fillable by a native with higher wages or better conditions.
He'll be the best friend any politician could be to the ERG, for precisely as long as he needs them.
The worst result would probably be a majority of 10, because he'd be forced to dance to their tune. If he knocks it out the park and get 360 MPs, and a majority of 70+, his Government would actually probably end up being more reasoned and moderate, with the fringe of the ERG sidelined.
Things in Torydom must be worse than I thought
That doesn`t answer my question. What if the solution you describe is available but the CP say "NO we are incumbents and we will run along on a minority basis". Who gets first dibs?
But, they get a free pass from Labour for now who've been electing un-electable leaders, now, for precisely the same period of time they've been in office and keep doubling-down to the Left each time they lose.
Have you?
2019 offers Colne Valley electors a positive plethora of brexity options (Con, UKIP, BXP, Yorkshires) which tempted me to think that Lab might defy UNS and hold this seat at 5/4.
However it does look as if the 2015 UKIP vote swung LAB in 2017.
2015:
Con 44%
Lab 35%
UKIP 10%
2017:
Con 46%
Lab 48%
UKIP 0%
I've decided therefore that the brexity parties will hurt LAB more than CON, and that CON, turbocharged by UNS and an attendant LAB->LIBDEM swing, will regain this seat very easily at 4/6.
Comments on my muggishness always appreciated.
Those qualities will help him win an election but different qualities are going to be far more important once he is there and that is where his problems start. Bluster and bon-hommie only take you so far.
A Brexit deal will be corrosive, but if Boris gets us to the 2020 WTO exit, that will be catastrophic
Shaft the peasants! Yayy!! Trebles all round!!!
#18thCentury #properVictorianValues
Irrelevant, though. Johnson would lose the first VONC, so we'd go to stage 2 almost immediately. Swinson would repeat her refusal to countenance Labour's Trot minority, and Labour, perforce, would blink first. Swinson, Sturgeon, Lucas and - let's guess Starmer - would huddle, we'd end up with Someone Like Starmer (SLS) running a minority government, possibly in coalition with the SNP, which the LDs would support only when it behaves itself.
There aren't rules for most of this, so the haggling would prob take time. Probably, therefore, Ms S and Ms S would agree with SLS that SLS would temporarily run an emergency administration, intended to do nothing but react to crises, until we had final agreement.
In any case: after a third EU referendum, there'd probably be another GE anyway. This time dominated by a party that ISN'T committed to fucking business, and another party that ISN'T committed to recreating Venezuela.
(I assume that high on the list of the next government with a majority, will be to replace the FTPA).
Of course the next Brexit battleground might be the courts and the Lords - but 50 + majority will see that off.
My dad usually hates public school bluffers, and my mother hates personal imorality, and fathers who abandon their children especially. Both are going to be voting for BoZo's party though, despite considering Nokes a traitor.
Interesting to see that the only literature that had come in their post was from the LD, with a good local self made businessman as candidate. No Green candidate, but there is a UKIP one. Not an impossible LD gain imo.