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  • eggegg Posts: 1,685
    edited November 2019

    egg said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
    I like the header. PBs header writers are having a great election.
    A poll of polls though, when they have such range could be misleading than accurate?
    That's why it's always best to do an average:

    There’s nothing like your elbow to nudge the others aside 🙂

    So yesterday you had a 12 point, a long way from hung territory?
  • So bloody proud of this, Lady Hale is going to stand up to the Chinese Government like she did with ours. Hurrah for our brilliant judiciary.
    Baroness Hale of Richmond, the president of the Supreme Court, will sit for a month in Hong Kong’s highest court as the former colony’s judiciary attempts to demonstrate its independence from Beijing.

    Lady Hale, who declared Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament illegal in September, will take a temporary seat on the bench of Hong Kong’s court of final appeal in the new year.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/baroness-hale-will-sit-as-judge-at-hong-kong-court-6kjkdch5r

    I think comparing our Government to that of the Chinese is a new low even for someone as far into the gutter as you are Mr Eagles.
    A shocking misreading of my post.
    I think not. Calculated.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,174

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Something weird happening to Vanilla nesting comments. The typeface has gone grey.

    50 shades of grey.

    PB Tories acting as if tortured this PM
    Yes, since we managed to maintain reasonably good-humoured calm when they were 19 points ahead, it's fun to see them panicking at being...7 points ahead. But in the spirit of seasonal harmony, I think they are worrying too much, and will end up with a majority of 15-30.
  • Brom said:

    Even before tonight the signs were Labour were ticking up in the polls. They are having yet another good campaign, Tories continue struggling to get cut-through on anything.

    Too early to suggest that after 1 poll. It looks like since the campaign started their vote is up 2-3%, the same amount as the Tories. In 2017 their vote was up 7-8% at this point. They certainly need a surge
  • Posted this at the dying embers of the previous thread.

    Hundreds locked out of Raab's hustings tonight in East Molesey including Harry Dunn's father according to my man on the spot.

    Raab was heard complaining about Lib Dems being bussed in. My man on the spot says they were hardly shock troops, more like R4 listeners.

    Raab's Tory predecessor in Esher and Walton, Ian Taylor has also called on people to vote Lib Dem today.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    egg said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
    I like the header. PBs header writers are having a great election.
    A poll of polls though, when they have such range could be misleading than accurate?
    That's why it's always best to do an average:

    Thanks Sunil. That has calmed me down. Somewhat.

    Interesting that there really WAS a small surge in the first week, where Labour shrank the Tory lead by 3, yet no one wet their knick-knacks then. I guess now it is much nearer to reality. Two and a half weeks.

    Gulp.
  • egg said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
    I like the header. PBs header writers are having a great election.
    A poll of polls though, when they have such range could be misleading than accurate?
    I certainly think they can be misleading when a change is afoot. I have no idea whether tonight's polls are the start of something sustained or just a blip but if they are the start of a trend then you can see how a poll of polls would have trouble picking it up until it is well under way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    test
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,685

    So bloody proud of this, Lady Hale is going to stand up to the Chinese Government like she did with ours. Hurrah for our brilliant judiciary.
    Baroness Hale of Richmond, the president of the Supreme Court, will sit for a month in Hong Kong’s highest court as the former colony’s judiciary attempts to demonstrate its independence from Beijing.

    Lady Hale, who declared Boris Johnson’s prorogation of parliament illegal in September, will take a temporary seat on the bench of Hong Kong’s court of final appeal in the new year.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/baroness-hale-will-sit-as-judge-at-hong-kong-court-6kjkdch5r


    Is that Spider Ma’am?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    kinabalu said:

    Why the assumption that it's waspi wot done it for this poll surge for Labour?

    Why not the creeping realization amongst a growing section of the public that Johnson is a bit of a dick?

    You make a reasonable point but one that his disciples find difficult to comprehend. Where you and I see a dick they see a very funny geezer.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,685
    edited November 2019

    Brom said:

    Even before tonight the signs were Labour were ticking up in the polls. They are having yet another good campaign, Tories continue struggling to get cut-through on anything.

    Too early to suggest that after 1 poll. It looks like since the campaign started their vote is up 2-3%, the same amount as the Tories. In 2017 their vote was up 7-8% at this point. They certainly need a surge
    The Trend is the friend and 2019 elbow so completely different in not narrowing!
  • Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?

    I will just stay here and stock up on food and petrol bombs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    edited November 2019
    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why the assumption that it's waspi wot done it for this poll surge for Labour?

    Why not the creeping realization amongst a growing section of the public that Johnson is a bit of a dick?

    You make a reasonable point but one that his disciples find difficult to comprehend. Where you and I see a dick they see a very funny geezer.
    It’s more that I have trouble believing that people turning away from the Tories because Johnson’s ‘a bit of a dick’ would turn to a Labour Party led by a much bigger dick.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    egg said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
    I like the header. PBs header writers are having a great election.
    A poll of polls though, when they have such range could be misleading than accurate?
    I certainly think they can be misleading when a change is afoot. I have no idea whether tonight's polls are the start of something sustained or just a blip but if they are the start of a trend then you can see how a poll of polls would have trouble picking it up until it is well under way.
    Exactly the same happened in 2017. Pb noticed a narrowing long before the poll of polls flagged it up.
  • Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?

    France.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,240
    edited November 2019

    kinabalu said:

    Why the assumption that it's waspi wot done it for this poll surge for Labour?

    Why not the creeping realization amongst a growing section of the public that Johnson is a bit of a dick?

    There is no surge
    That’s a reasonable assumption on the basis of recent polls. Let’s see whether the 19% lead or the 7% lead is the outlier.

    However, while BJ has impressed by not screwing up as badly as he might, I do think an election campaign makes people take a slightly longer view of his capabilities than “good bloke” when they see him zipwiring in his pants or sending a zinger Corbyn’s way.

    And JC gets equal airtime for his programme on the news, rather than the last line of a story saying what a shambles to government is (and a bunch of tabloid headlines claiming he eats babies).

    On top of that, I have a back-of-my-mind theory that close election results may be a feature rather than a bug right now. The solutions for something (Brexit) which within MOE divides the country 50-50 are not designed for the middle ground. And the electorate, in some weird murmuration, may well deny big majorities because of it.

    So if 7pc is closer to where we are... buckle up.
  • Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?

    I will just stay here and stock up on food and petrol bombs.
    Look on the bright side. After he’s crashed the economy and sodded off, we can all become oligarchs in the IMF imposed fire sale of assets.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,685

    kinabalu said:

    Why the assumption that it's waspi wot done it for this poll surge for Labour?

    Why not the creeping realization amongst a growing section of the public that Johnson is a bit of a dick?

    The age group affected show a clear move to labour in the ICM poll but small sample size
    If it’s not the Wasp buzz explaining the move the actual reason could be far worse for the Conservatives?
  • I wonder how working class blokes will react electorally to middle class women getting a 30 grand bung?

    Working Class women get it too
    Ones aged 65 to 69 yes, nobody else.
    No thats not true put my wifes DOB in and she gets £15k she is only 58
    Not according to the BBC graphic.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/50546923

    The BBC graphic seems to imply that you get nothing unless you were born between April 1950 and April 1960.
    There is a Labour bung checker (google is your friend), I am 63 and according to it I will get in excess of £25k over 5 years, although I personally wouldn’t vote for Labour in’s current guise for 10 times that!
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 2,980
    edited November 2019
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?

    I will just stay here and stock up on food and petrol bombs.
    I'm turning traitor. I love the Jezziah, always have done.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,685

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?

    France.
    Escape to the Chateau. DIY.
  • kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?

    I will just stay here and stock up on food and petrol bombs.
    I'm turning traitor. I love the Jezziah, always have done.
    You have something in common with Corbyn, you've both voted to Leave the EC/EU.
  • Lordy, this is getting funny and very close to Trump

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?

    I will just stay here and stock up on food and petrol bombs.
    I'm turning traitor. I love the Jezziah, always have done.
    You have something in common with Corbyn, you've both voted to Leave the EC/EU.
    Yes, but I've actually changed my mind since while he sits it out. Crap, I mean, another reason to love him.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,685
    Byronic said:

    egg said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
    I like the header. PBs header writers are having a great election.
    A poll of polls though, when they have such range could be misleading than accurate?
    I certainly think they can be misleading when a change is afoot. I have no idea whether tonight's polls are the start of something sustained or just a blip but if they are the start of a trend then you can see how a poll of polls would have trouble picking it up until it is well under way.
    Exactly the same happened in 2017. Pb noticed a narrowing long before the poll of polls flagged it up.
    But the elbow isn’t picking it up.
  • If we see another poll with a narrowing gap, it must be the start of a trend. Survation and ICM showed it narrowing.

    I think we will see a Labour 35 this week.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 80,846
    edited November 2019
    What a complete 🔔🔚 the Tory candidate in Ashfield is.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 1,367
    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?

    New Zealand,

    Total government speeding of just 30% of GDP National Debt of 35% and as close to Free trade as any nation.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?

    I will just stay here and stock up on food and petrol bombs.
    I'm turning traitor. I love the Jezziah, always have done.
    You have something in common with Corbyn, you've both voted to Leave the EC/EU.
    Yes, but I've actually changed my mind since while he sits it out. Crap, I mean, another reason to love him.
    Surely he said he did change his mind? He claims he voted Remain in the second referendum.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,685
    edited November 2019
    So panic over. The Elbow has Labour flatlining. So different to 2017. And the Barnsey Spread a 40+ majority.
    On the other hand though, why? Why shouldn’t we expect a similar result to two years ago?
    There are certainly key differences from 2017. Labour start here closer in the polls? 2017 was just months after the PLP mutiny, they seem much more united now?
    There’s probably more voters thinking brexit bad idea voting in the 2019 edition?
    Libdems probably had more credible leader attracting labour votes in the aging Cable Who had built up credibility in the noughties?
    The Tory cabinet had more credibility still in 2017, without being controlled by the vote leave liars meant Torys benefitted from economic credibility That won them 15.

    The bottomline many remainers voted Corbyn last time need a reason to do something different this time? Anti semitism? The labour manifesto? the Tory vision of a wealthy global Britain?
    Any key differences that help the Tory’s get better 2019 result than 2017?
    BREX stand down? When brexit candidate stands aside, Tories get three of their votes to every 1 labour get. But when they stand, effectively on a Tory manifesto with more policies and detail than the actual Tory manifesto, they suck up enough Labour votes for the conservatives to take the seat? Would the math not have been better if Farage had stood in all the safe Tory seats rather than the Close Peterborough type ones, like how on earth in polling at time did Corbyn win Peterborough
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    BigRich said:

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?

    New Zealand,

    Total government speeding of just 30% of GDP National Debt of 35% and as close to Free trade as any nation.
    Square root of fuck all to do though.

    I'm going Germany, whether Corbyn wins or loses.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?

    I will just stay here and stock up on food and petrol bombs.
    I'm turning traitor. I love the Jezziah, always have done.
    You have something in common with Corbyn, you've both voted to Leave the EC/EU.
    Yes, but I've actually changed my mind since while he sits it out. Crap, I mean, another reason to love him.
    Surely he said he did change his mind? He claims he voted Remain in the second referendum.
    He said. Claims.

    But he's a man of principle, that principle being not taking sides in a referendum, so our memory must be false that he voted for or campaigned for Remain.
  • I wonder if Farage standing aside may end up being a very, very bad call
  • egg said:

    Byronic said:

    egg said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
    I like the header. PBs header writers are having a great election.
    A poll of polls though, when they have such range could be misleading than accurate?
    I certainly think they can be misleading when a change is afoot. I have no idea whether tonight's polls are the start of something sustained or just a blip but if they are the start of a trend then you can see how a poll of polls would have trouble picking it up until it is well under way.
    Exactly the same happened in 2017. Pb noticed a narrowing long before the poll of polls flagged it up.
    But the elbow isn’t picking it up.
    If there is a trend, next Sunday's ELBOW will pick it up! For now, ICM is just the first poll I will use for the upcoming data-point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698

    If we see another poll with a narrowing gap, it must be the start of a trend. Survation and ICM showed it narrowing.

    I think we will see a Labour 35 this week.

    It's now we'll start to see the Tories fumble it, and make some panicky announcements which only undermine themselves. Average lead will be down, Boris will get waffly and tetchy, and come 13 Dec we'll see Labour within 3-4%.
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,882

    I wonder if Farage standing aside may end up being a very, very bad call

    For Labour it might be looking at today’s Wales poll. The main thing is it’s a massive help they stood down in Tory seats. We’ve gone from assuming 20-30 losses to the Libs to possible single figures.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,446

    Lordy, this is getting funny and very close to Trump

    Guess that's why Consigliere Giuliani was on TV the other day saying he had insurance against Trump throwing him under the bus.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    edited November 2019
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Where’s everyone else going?

    I will just stay here and stock up on food and petrol bombs.
    I'm turning traitor. I love the Jezziah, always have done.
    You have something in common with Corbyn, you've both voted to Leave the EC/EU.
    Yes, but I've actually changed my mind since while he sits it out. Crap, I mean, another reason to love him.
    Surely he said he did change his mind? He claims he voted Remain in the second referendum.
    He said. Claims.

    But he's a man of principle, that principle being not taking sides in a referendum, so our memory must be false that he voted for or campaigned for Remain.
    Well, it is of course true that Corbyn is the most fluent liar with the word ‘Socialist’ in his beliefs since...well, let’s not pull a Godwin.
    But for all that, he’s very consistent in saying he voted remain. I just don’t think he wants to remain now.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 748

    Nippy confirming it s Scottish Groats for us poor souls in the north - wish us luck (or vote Boris)

    Look on the bright side - we’ll save £3.1 billion for not having to service part of the UK sovereign debt...
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,424

    egg said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
    I like the header. PBs header writers are having a great election.
    A poll of polls though, when they have such range could be misleading than accurate?
    I certainly think they can be misleading when a change is afoot. I have no idea whether tonight's polls are the start of something sustained or just a blip but if they are the start of a trend then you can see how a poll of polls would have trouble picking it up until it is well under way.
    But also a good reminder not to assume something is well under way until it's been repeated enough to make a dent on an average
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,251
    edited November 2019

    If we see another poll with a narrowing gap, it must be the start of a trend. Survation and ICM showed it narrowing.

    No it mustn't. A trend requires far more than a couple of data points to be defined. You would need to see the blue EMA turn over and start moving down.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,131
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why the assumption that it's waspi wot done it for this poll surge for Labour?

    Why not the creeping realization amongst a growing section of the public that Johnson is a bit of a dick?

    You make a reasonable point but one that his disciples find difficult to comprehend. Where you and I see a dick they see a very funny geezer.
    It’s more that I have trouble believing that people turning away from the Tories because Johnson’s ‘a bit of a dick’ would turn to a Labour Party led by a much bigger dick.
    Corbyn was already a fairly well known dick in 2017 when Labour picked up 40% of the popular vote. His ratings have sunk to unheard of depths since but, guess what, since the election campaign started and he began to promise free everything, they've started heading steadily upwards again.

    The idea that Corbyn can't repeat that 40% score is based on a wildly over-optimistic notion of what kind of a leader folk are willing to tolerate, of which many of us (myself included) have been guilty. It turns out that they'll vote for the Devil himself if they think it'll make them £5 richer. That friendly-looking old chap with the beard off the telly is, therefore, wholly acceptable.

    Almost nobody cares about the terrorism stuff, the Islamism stuff, the Venezuela stuff, the anti-Semitism stuff or any of the other stuff. Except for Jewish voters, and they're only critical in one or two seats nationwide. They don't matter.

    I see one can get 12/1 on Labour for most seats at the moment. I might go to town after work tomorrow and make further enquiries.
  • Lordy, this is getting funny and very close to Trump

    "Failing to register as a foreign agent". Did for the Rosenbergs.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Andrew Neil clearly does not intend to return to live in Glasgow! Comparing her unfavourably to Donald Trump like that...
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,605
    edited November 2019
    "... and the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
    Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110."

    In light of this afternoon's ICM poll, I wonder whether rcs would opt to change his forecast of the GE result, which he posted here two days ago and if so to what extent?
  • eekeek Posts: 7,079
    sarissa said:

    Nippy confirming it s Scottish Groats for us poor souls in the north - wish us luck (or vote Boris)

    Look on the bright side - we’ll save £3.1 billion for not having to service part of the UK sovereign debt...
    Do you really think Scotland will walk away without it's share of the debt?

    It's a plan but not one that will allow you to export anything to the UK.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    edited November 2019
    OT Really surprising that the Lib Dems don't zero in on Johnson's dishonesty. If they want to keep it gentle why not some 48 sheets with Johnson as Pinnochio. He's got the perfect face for it and they've got enough material to wallpaper the whole of London*

    * Gerald Scarfe would be good.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429

    Btw, there's an official in the Palace of Westminster I know (ish) who is widely respected who thinks we'll be having general elections like this every 18-24 months for the next decade.

    Which I thought sounded like fun...

    PR within a couple of electoral cycles in that event.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,992
    At least she had the guts to be interviewed by him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Something weird happening to Vanilla nesting comments. The typeface has gone grey.

    I think it looks pretty smart, personally.

    You like Radiohead, too, I believe ?
  • As is the whole interview. I have never seen her so comprehensively demolished before and in many ways it is why I think Scotland will reject independence if another vote is ever held
  • Wonder how Corbyn will do with Neil tomorrow, recall he did quite well last time.

    Boris Johnson going last might prove to be a tactical error
  • kle4 said:

    If we see another poll with a narrowing gap, it must be the start of a trend. Survation and ICM showed it narrowing.

    I think we will see a Labour 35 this week.

    It's now we'll start to see the Tories fumble it, and make some panicky announcements which only undermine themselves. Average lead will be down, Boris will get waffly and tetchy, and come 13 Dec we'll see Labour within 3-4%.
    Tories don't need to panic. They do need to start calling out Labour on the impact of their policies, both in macro terms re the affect on the economy of Labour's tax, borrow and spending splurge and on a personal level regarding such as marriage tax allowance, dividend tax and IHT.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    edited November 2019
    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?
    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.
    Where’s everyone else going?

    Well I did have the option of moving freely to 27 other countries, but for some reason I wont have that capability soon. So I'm not going anywhere
    (Punches wall in frustration)
  • egg said:

    So panic over. The Elbow has Labour flatlining. So different to 2017. And the Barnsey Spread a 40+ majority.
    On the other hand though, why? Why shouldn’t we expect a similar result to two years ago?
    There are certainly key differences from 2017. Labour start here closer in the polls? 2017 was just months after the PLP mutiny, they seem much more united now?
    There’s probably more voters thinking brexit bad idea voting in the 2019 edition?
    Libdems probably had more credible leader attracting labour votes in the aging Cable Who had built up credibility in the noughties?
    The Tory cabinet had more credibility still in 2017, without being controlled by the vote leave liars meant Torys benefitted from economic credibility That won them 15.

    The bottomline many remainers voted Corbyn last time need a reason to do something different this time? Anti semitism? The labour manifesto? the Tory vision of a wealthy global Britain?
    Any key differences that help the Tory’s get better 2019 result than 2017?
    BREX stand down? When brexit candidate stands aside, Tories get three of their votes to every 1 labour get. But when they stand, effectively on a Tory manifesto with more policies and detail than the actual Tory manifesto, they suck up enough Labour votes for the conservatives to take the seat? Would the math not have been better if Farage had stood in all the safe Tory seats rather than the Close Peterborough type ones, like how on earth in polling at time did Corbyn win Peterborough

    Other key differences.

    Corbyn can no longer pretend as he did last time around that we will still Brexit with him in charge. In the eyes of Leavers he is definitely now a Remainer.

    His manifesto and language are far more radical than last time. He can no longer be considered a safe alternative by some.

    More importantly many will have voted for him last time thinking there was no way he could win and that a hung Parliament would be a good idea. Both those premises are clearly dead now. No one in their right minds will take the risk of voting Corbyn to limit the size off a Tory majority when there is a genuine risk he might win. Meanwhile the last couple of years have shown what a disaster a hung Parliament is for the whole country.

    Things are very very different to last time.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,131
    humbugger said:

    kle4 said:

    If we see another poll with a narrowing gap, it must be the start of a trend. Survation and ICM showed it narrowing.

    I think we will see a Labour 35 this week.

    It's now we'll start to see the Tories fumble it, and make some panicky announcements which only undermine themselves. Average lead will be down, Boris will get waffly and tetchy, and come 13 Dec we'll see Labour within 3-4%.
    Tories don't need to panic. They do need to start calling out Labour on the impact of their policies, both in macro terms re the affect on the economy of Labour's tax, borrow and spending splurge and on a personal level regarding such as marriage tax allowance, dividend tax and IHT.
    It won't work. People aren't interested and won't listen.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 18,067

    "... and the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
    Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110."

    In light of this afternoon's ICM poll, I wonder whether rcs would opt to change his forecast of the GE result, which he posted here two days ago and if so to what extent?

    Tbh, it could be an outlier like the 19% Con lead, just in the other direction.
  • Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Australia eh? Do you possess the necessary points to gain entry?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    Lordy, this is getting funny and very close to Trump

    "Failing to register as a foreign agent". Did for the Rosenbergs.
    Mail and wire fraud. Did for Al Capone.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    Mango said:

    DavidL said:


    I'm not panicking. This doesn't feel like 2017 to me. I feel the Tories are actually campaigning this time not hiding. I expect them to have a lead of about 12% on the night which will give them a 5% swing. That should be enough.

    Enough for what? What are they going to do with such parliamentary riches? Aside from giving Putin his quick win, and embroiling us in a decade or two of unnecessary drag on the economy and on security, what in any of their actions suggests they have a clue about the problems facing the UK over the next 30 years?

    Genuine question, as you don't seem merely to be a supporter of Tory FC, but someone who actually wants governments to make life better.
    Well their Manifesto was a little on the uninspired side but for all of the raging on here driven by Brexit Boris has always been a one nation socially liberal Tory. I want us to remove the uncertainty that we have endured for the last 3 years and leave the EU. I want a government that is not beholden to bizarre fantasists but has a strong enough majority to resist the extreme pressures they have been able to apply since at least 2017, arguably 2015.

    We need a sensible FTA with the EU. We have to accept that this will involve a fair bit of regulatory equivalence. We need to sort out student debt. And the housing market. And Social Care. And our infrastructure. We all need to calm down a bit and, ideally, reintroduce some civility back into our public life.

    Its a pretty full program. After 3 years of dicking around there is a massive backlog on the to do list.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited November 2019

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Australia eh? Do you possess the necessary points to gain entry?
    As a very successful male model I get fast tracked citizenship. There’s a shortage of REALLY good looking men in Australia. Apparently.
  • On waspi. It looks like the dislike and fear of Corbyn on the doorsteps is being reflected in the canvassing in my conservative candidates seat and while some votes are expected to go to labour from waspi women the fear of Corbyn is far greater

  • humbugger said:

    kle4 said:

    If we see another poll with a narrowing gap, it must be the start of a trend. Survation and ICM showed it narrowing.

    I think we will see a Labour 35 this week.

    It's now we'll start to see the Tories fumble it, and make some panicky announcements which only undermine themselves. Average lead will be down, Boris will get waffly and tetchy, and come 13 Dec we'll see Labour within 3-4%.
    Tories don't need to panic. They do need to start calling out Labour on the impact of their policies, both in macro terms re the affect on the economy of Labour's tax, borrow and spending splurge and on a personal level regarding such as marriage tax allowance, dividend tax and IHT.
    It won't work. People aren't interested and won't listen.
    Perhaps they should just give in then. What's your solution to what the Tories need to do now?
  • MaxPB said:

    "... and the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
    Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110."

    In light of this afternoon's ICM poll, I wonder whether rcs would opt to change his forecast of the GE result, which he posted here two days ago and if so to what extent?

    Tbh, it could be an outlier like the 19% Con lead, just in the other direction.
    It could indeed - let's wait and see what rcs has to say on the matter.
  • On waspi. It looks like the dislike and fear of Corbyn on the doorsteps is being reflected in the canvassing in my conservative candidates seat and while some votes are expected to go to labour from waspi women the fear of Corbyn is far greater

    We'll see
  • Silversurfers.com currently have a Do you think Labour’s waspi promise is credible? Poll running, currently 70/30 that it isn’t - about 1600 respondents at present. Also highlights that the waspi campaign is pressing Labour to deliver a clear framework as to how they plan to deliver.
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Australia eh? Do you possess the necessary points to gain entry?
    As a very successful male model I get fast tracked citizenship. There’s a shortage of REALLY good looking men in Australia. Apparently.
    Don't believe everything you read on Grindr.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,481
    egg said:

    egg said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
    I like the header. PBs header writers are having a great election.
    A poll of polls though, when they have such range could be misleading than accurate?
    That's why it's always best to do an average:

    There’s nothing like your elbow to nudge the others aside 🙂

    So yesterday you had a 12 point, a long way from hung territory?
    That's not even slightly hung never-mind well hung...
  • Silversurfers.com currently have a Do you think Labour’s waspi promise is credible? Poll running, currently 70/30 that it isn’t - about 1600 respondents at present. Also highlights that the waspi campaign is pressing Labour to deliver a clear framework as to how they plan to deliver.

    30% of voters is potentially a lot of voters though
  • humbuggerhumbugger Posts: 255
    edited November 2019

    Silversurfers.com currently have a Do you think Labour’s waspi promise is credible? Poll running, currently 70/30 that it isn’t - about 1600 respondents at present. Also highlights that the waspi campaign is pressing Labour to deliver a clear framework as to how they plan to deliver.

    There's loads of questions on this policy. The first is will the "compensation" be taxable and if so at what rate?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,131

    Other key differences.

    Corbyn can no longer pretend as he did last time around that we will still Brexit with him in charge. In the eyes of Leavers he is definitely now a Remainer.

    His manifesto and language are far more radical than last time. He can no longer be considered a safe alternative by some.

    More importantly many will have voted for him last time thinking there was no way he could win and that a hung Parliament would be a good idea. Both those premises are clearly dead now. No one in their right minds will take the risk of voting Corbyn to limit the size off a Tory majority when there is a genuine risk he might win. Meanwhile the last couple of years have shown what a disaster a hung Parliament is for the whole country.

    Things are very very different to last time.

    *Voters prioritise self-enrichment above Brexit. Brexit is, in any event, old hat and irritating. They want it to go away and don't care how this happens

    *Voters aren't looking at the details of the Labour manifesto. Nobody is, not even journalists. Voters are only interested in the size of the bribes which, so long as they are convinced will be paid for by others, they are thrilled to accept

    *If enough voters think they will gain from a Labour Government they will vote for it. Attacks on Corbyn don't work. People don't care about his character. The comparison with Shagger helps him a bit, but frankly people would still vote for Corbyn if the Tories were led by Jesus Christ himself, so long as Corbyn promised them more money than Jesus did

    *Things are very very different to last time. Instead of offering selected voters a wadge of banknotes each, they're volunteering to hose down everyone who earns less than eighty grand a year with a continuous torrent of cash. And that is very appealing
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 906

    MaxPB said:

    "... and the Conservatives will end up winning 60 from the Labour Party, losing only two or three net to the LibDems, and actually gaining a seat in Scotland.
    Boris Johnson will be sitting on a majority of 110."

    In light of this afternoon's ICM poll, I wonder whether rcs would opt to change his forecast of the GE result, which he posted here two days ago and if so to what extent?

    Tbh, it could be an outlier like the 19% Con lead, just in the other direction.
    It could indeed - let's wait and see what rcs has to say on the matter.
    If you look at the individual numbers the 47% for the tories and the 34% for labour look unnaturally high when compared to other numbers.

    Most of the tory numbers recently are between 41% and 43% and most of the labour ones are between 28% and 32%.

    There are enough other data points to show that the tory 47% is an outlier but not enough labour ones.
  • Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Australia eh? Do you possess the necessary points to gain entry?
    As a very successful male model I get fast tracked citizenship. There’s a shortage of REALLY good looking men in Australia. Apparently.
    Any convictions resulting in a sentence of 12 months or more? That would put an end to any such plans I am afraid.
  • GIN1138 said:

    egg said:

    egg said:

    Mr Meeks, given the unfortunate timing of tonight's polls, would you have written anything different here if you had had knowledge of them before submitting the piece? Or do you not see anything to really change your view at present?

    I might have toned down the opening. The main part of the piece is in the tables. People can make of them what they will.

    Your last 8 polls is a bit out of date Al

    Yes but I have only so many hours when I can put headers together. Ones like this one take a lot longer than think pieces.
    I like the header. PBs header writers are having a great election.
    A poll of polls though, when they have such range could be misleading than accurate?
    That's why it's always best to do an average:

    There’s nothing like your elbow to nudge the others aside 🙂

    So yesterday you had a 12 point, a long way from hung territory?
    That's not even slightly hung never-mind well hung...
    Um, 13-point :smile:
  • Other key differences.

    Corbyn can no longer pretend as he did last time around that we will still Brexit with him in charge. In the eyes of Leavers he is definitely now a Remainer.

    His manifesto and language are far more radical than last time. He can no longer be considered a safe alternative by some.

    More importantly many will have voted for him last time thinking there was no way he could win and that a hung Parliament would be a good idea. Both those premises are clearly dead now. No one in their right minds will take the risk of voting Corbyn to limit the size off a Tory majority when there is a genuine risk he might win. Meanwhile the last couple of years have shown what a disaster a hung Parliament is for the whole country.

    Things are very very different to last time.

    *Voters prioritise self-enrichment above Brexit. Brexit is, in any event, old hat and irritating. They want it to go away and don't care how this happens

    *Voters aren't looking at the details of the Labour manifesto. Nobody is, not even journalists. Voters are only interested in the size of the bribes which, so long as they are convinced will be paid for by others, they are thrilled to accept

    *If enough voters think they will gain from a Labour Government they will vote for it. Attacks on Corbyn don't work. People don't care about his character. The comparison with Shagger helps him a bit, but frankly people would still vote for Corbyn if the Tories were led by Jesus Christ himself, so long as Corbyn promised them more money than Jesus did

    *Things are very very different to last time. Instead of offering selected voters a wadge of banknotes each, they're volunteering to hose down everyone who earns less than eighty grand a year with a continuous torrent of cash. And that is very appealing
    I think you are wrong in every instance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Australia eh? Do you possess the necessary points to gain entry?
    As a very successful male model I get fast tracked citizenship. There’s a shortage of REALLY good looking men in Australia. Apparently.
    Any convictions resulting in a sentence of 12 months or more? That would put an end to any such plans I am afraid.
    One reason SeanT was always such an entertaining poster was like Johnson and Corbyn he had no convictions whatsoever. He always said whatever made sense at the time.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,340

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Australia eh? Do you possess the necessary points to gain entry?
    As a very successful male model I get fast tracked citizenship. There’s a shortage of REALLY good looking men in Australia. Apparently.
    Any convictions resulting in a sentence of 12 months or more? That would put an end to any such plans I am afraid.
    Wasn't that a condition of entry?
  • You know what is worrying? The absence of Jack W's ARSE!

    For those of you who weren't around in the second half of 2014, my ELBOW was inspired by his Assorted Random Selection of Electors!
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 748
    eek said:

    sarissa said:

    Nippy confirming it s Scottish Groats for us poor souls in the north - wish us luck (or vote Boris)

    Look on the bright side - we’ll save £3.1 billion for not having to service part of the UK sovereign debt...
    Do you really think Scotland will walk away without it's share of the debt?

    It's a plan but not one that will allow you to export anything to the UK.
    eek said:

    sarissa said:

    Nippy confirming it s Scottish Groats for us poor souls in the north - wish us luck (or vote Boris)

    Look on the bright side - we’ll save £3.1 billion for not having to service part of the UK sovereign debt...
    Do you really think Scotland will walk away without it's share of the debt?

    It's a plan but not one that will allow you to export anything to the UK.
    So in return for paying our share are you conceding successor state status to an independent Scotland?

    Including use of the £, protection of the BoE and a full share of all common current UK assets and reserves? I must have missed that bit of the lovebombing.

    How exactly will rUk enforce these discriminatory trade policies when Scotland aligns itself with or rejoins the EU?

    There are precedents (eg the USSR ) for the major remaining part of a union to accept all liabilities in return for retaining its status.
  • Other key differences.

    Corbyn can no longer pretend as he did last time around that we will still Brexit with him in charge. In the eyes of Leavers he is definitely now a Remainer.

    His manifesto and language are far more radical than last time. He can no longer be considered a safe alternative by some.

    More importantly many will have voted for him last time thinking there was no way he could win and that a hung Parliament would be a good idea. Both those premises are clearly dead now. No one in their right minds will take the risk of voting Corbyn to limit the size off a Tory majority when there is a genuine risk he might win. Meanwhile the last couple of years have shown what a disaster a hung Parliament is for the whole country.

    Things are very very different to last time.

    *Voters prioritise self-enrichment above Brexit. Brexit is, in any event, old hat and irritating. They want it to go away and don't care how this happens

    *Voters aren't looking at the details of the Labour manifesto. Nobody is, not even journalists. Voters are only interested in the size of the bribes which, so long as they are convinced will be paid for by others, they are thrilled to accept

    *If enough voters think they will gain from a Labour Government they will vote for it. Attacks on Corbyn don't work. People don't care about his character. The comparison with Shagger helps him a bit, but frankly people would still vote for Corbyn if the Tories were led by Jesus Christ himself, so long as Corbyn promised them more money than Jesus did

    *Things are very very different to last time. Instead of offering selected voters a wadge of banknotes each, they're volunteering to hose down everyone who earns less than eighty grand a year with a continuous torrent of cash. And that is very appealing
    Those losing their marriage tax allowance and many of those seeing swingeing increases in dividend tax, including many self employeds and pensioners are not being hosed down with cash. They are losing cash, as will be many beneficiaries of estates affected by Labour's IHT proposals. The Tories should make sure these people know they will be losers. There's lots of them.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,418
    Do you guys think the Corbyn government will raise taxes on cash savings?

    😥
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,131
    humbugger said:

    humbugger said:

    kle4 said:

    If we see another poll with a narrowing gap, it must be the start of a trend. Survation and ICM showed it narrowing.

    I think we will see a Labour 35 this week.

    It's now we'll start to see the Tories fumble it, and make some panicky announcements which only undermine themselves. Average lead will be down, Boris will get waffly and tetchy, and come 13 Dec we'll see Labour within 3-4%.
    Tories don't need to panic. They do need to start calling out Labour on the impact of their policies, both in macro terms re the affect on the economy of Labour's tax, borrow and spending splurge and on a personal level regarding such as marriage tax allowance, dividend tax and IHT.
    It won't work. People aren't interested and won't listen.
    Perhaps they should just give in then. What's your solution to what the Tories need to do now?
    Oh, they should probably do what you suggest because no better plan occurs, but I'm just deeply sceptical that it will work. Labour's manifesto contains an inexactly totalised number of spending commitments (at a rough guess, somewhere between £1tn-£1.5tn over a five-year Parliament,) the source of funding for most of which is not even described (i.e. they're probably going to get most of it from telling the BoE to print money, or save themselves the trouble of spending it by expropriating the fixed assets of various utility firms.)

    The voters don't care. All they hear is that you'll get all these wonderful freebies, and someone else will pay for them. I just don't think they're interested in the details.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,481

    You know what is worrying? The absence of Jack W's ARSE!

    For those of you who weren't around in the second half of 2014, my ELBOW was inspired by his Assorted Random Selection of Electors!

    Jack retired his ARSE after 2015.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    ydoethur said:

    One reason SeanT was always such an entertaining poster was like Johnson and Corbyn he had no convictions whatsoever. He always said whatever made sense at the time.

    ...which was often the exact opposite of what he'd said 30 minutes before... :)

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,481
    nunu2 said:

    Do you guys think the Corbyn government will raise taxes on cash savings?

    😥

    Get it under the floorboards? ;)
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,418
    Panic time for Tories.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Australia eh? Do you possess the necessary points to gain entry?
    As a very successful male model I get fast tracked citizenship. There’s a shortage of REALLY good looking men in Australia. Apparently.
    Any convictions resulting in a sentence of 12 months or more? That would put an end to any such plans I am afraid.

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    So where are we all gonna move to? If Corbyn gets in?

    I fancy Greece. Pelion, or Poros. Or perhaps Australia. The northern beaches.

    Australia eh? Do you possess the necessary points to gain entry?
    As a very successful male model I get fast tracked citizenship. There’s a shortage of REALLY good looking men in Australia. Apparently.
    Any convictions resulting in a sentence of 12 months or more? That would put an end to any such plans I am afraid.
    No such convictions. I should have loads. But I don’t
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,453
    It's not a good labour campaign..it is just
    Torah Torah Tories
    And
    Spend Spend Spend...
  • nunu2 said:

    Panic time for Tories.

    Have you seen another poll?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,131
    nunu2 said:

    Do you guys think the Corbyn government will raise taxes on cash savings?

    😥

    Not to begin with. But after the run on the pound, the spike in gilt yields and the onset of mass unemployment they'll be desperate for revenue.

    I wouldn't be so worried about taxes as I would about confiscation, although by that point most of the value of your money would've been inflated away in any event.

    If we get a Corbyn Government I may hedge my bets and convert some of my savings into physical gold, whilst they're still worth something.
  • I have that gut feeling again, the momentum is with Labour
  • How can the Tories be 80/1 in Aberdeen North? They don’t have a candidate in that seat.
This discussion has been closed.