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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson opens up a 28 point ratings gap over Johnson in six CO

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited November 2019
    Brom said:

    At the same point in 2017 Kantar had Labour only 8 points behind. Tories will be happy about the solid vote share. I imagine Labour will climb above 35 but I reckon they will need at least 37 for a hung parliament So it’s all touch and go.

    Labour need to squeeze the LDs back under 10% for that, unlikely unless Corbyn commits to stop Brexit, Labour would also then lose more Leavers to the Brexit Party and Tories
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I'm struggling to understand Michael Heseltine's reasoning on the Today programme. He said Corbyn cannot possibly become PM, so vote Lib Dem or independent Conservative in order to stop Johnson. But who becomes PM in that case?

    Boris if the LDs have the balance of power and abstain, Corbyn if the SNP have the balance of power
    So his pitch that Corbyn can't become PM isn't true.
    ... if you believe @HYUFD's predictions.

    Hestletine or @HYUFD? I know who I think understands politics better.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    HYUFD said:

    The UK joins the EU, China and Mexico as the only G20 countries or areas meeting effective carbon reduction targets to tackle climate change

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50547073

    "Britain joins the EU" I thought this was another prediction for a moment! :wink:

    Point of order: the EU is not a country.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 134
    edited November 2019
    It is possible for multiple things to be true at once: that the Empire did good things and also that it was a racist engine of oppression for many indigenous people.
    That Parliamentary Democracy is good, and that the Victorians who lauded it did so for self-serving reasons.
    And so on.
    Our ancestors were not perfect paragons of virtue, just as we are not; pretending otherwise does neither us nor them any favours.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098
    Looks increasingly like Labour have moved into the low 30s. Tories holding at about 42, so if labour want to get it down to 5 or so they need to eat into the LD vote hard.
    I thi k the Tories would bank a 10 or 11 gap on the 12th now if offered!
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,882
    HYUFD said:

    Brom said:

    At the same point in 2017 Kantar had Labour only 8 points behind. Tories will be happy about the solid vote share. I imagine Labour will climb above 35 but I reckon they will need at least 37 for a hung parliament So it’s all touch and go.

    Labour need to squeeze the LDs back under 10% for that, unlikely unless Corbyn commits to stop Brexit, Labour would also then lose more Leavers to the Brexit Party and Tories
    I agree, have always maintained that if Lib Dem’s squeezed below 10 we will get NOM. Definitely in Tories interest for Lib Dem vote to not collapse.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    edited November 2019
    Important point for all those who feel we should Leave because of the vote but who do not want to see a WTO crash out...
    A hung parliament or a very small Tory majority will not allow a WTO crash out.
    A large Tory majority makes a WTO crash out at the end of 2020 very likely, given Boris's commitments (echoed in the Tory manifesto), coupled with the EU determination not to dilute the single market.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 1,409

    SunnyJim said:


    A perfect example of the tone-deaf attitude towards race and racism on this site. You speak mockingly about the British empire being ghastly - but the empire was ghastly, and an explicitly racist enterprise. It gave us the Atlantic slave trade, the Irish famine, the Bengal famine, the scramble for Africa, the partition of India and nurtured ideas of racial superiority at home that still plague us to this day. And yet the same people who are willing to devote days of the election campaign to the issue of anti Semitism just dismiss this toxic legacy of empire like it's some kind of PC joke.

    Bad things happening hundreds of years ago are probably not the best shield for the anti-Semites in Labour today.
    The point is that the legacy of empire is still with us. The fact that people here either belittle that or claim that the empire is a source of pride is pretty revealing.
    Yes the legacy of Empire which includes abolishing the slave trade, the spread of democracy etc is still with us. Thankfully.

    I do not want to see a return to the slave trade etc which existed pre Empire. Do you?
    The slave trade was arguably the greatest crime in human history, and the British were one of the biggest players and beneficiaries. Yes, we helped to abolish it, but only after we had benefited from it for hundreds of years and only when it was becoming less profitable, in part thanks to the bravery of the enslaved people whose constant revolts were draining the business of its profits and slowly awakening the conscience of people in Britain. And even when we abolished it, we compensated the fucking slave owners! And yet people here are proud of this whole history of bloodshed and plunder. Incredible.
    You don't know your history.

    The slave trade is as old as humanity. We didn't start the fire to quote Billy Joel it existed for thousands of years. It is as old as recorded human history.

    We didn't start it but we did end it.
    Hahahahaha.

    "It is estimated that Britain transported 3.1 million Africans (of whom 2.7 million arrived) to
    the British colonies in the Caribbean, North and South America and to other countries."

    http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/slavery/pdf/britain-and-the-trade.pdf

    And check out this drawing of a British slave ship: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_slave_trade#/media/File:Slaveshipposter_(cropped).jpg
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    This election is certainly turning weird. Philip Thompson now eulogising over our glorious contribution to the slave trade.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197

    Looks increasingly like Labour have moved into the low 30s. Tories holding at about 42, so if labour want to get it down to 5 or so they need to eat into the LD vote hard.
    I thi k the Tories would bank a 10 or 11 gap on the 12th now if offered!

    That LD vote is going to have to take on board the warnings of the Chief Rabbi before lending Labour their vote.

    Ask OGH how he feels about it.

    Equally, Tories lending the LDs their vote. Who wants to block Brexit if the only way is putting an anti-semite in Number 10? We will find out in 16 days.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098
    That the Chief Rabbi should be compelled to make such an unprecedented statement at this time ought to alert us to the deep sense of insecurity and fear felt by many British Jews: https://t.co/DNxr0Qxht5

    The anglicans wade in
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542
    edited November 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    PB Tories can now start panicking if they like.

    Heh. I'll start panicking if Boomerberg starts finding lots of love amongst the Democrat base and Ma Clinton decides she's going to run after all
    If Clinton decides to run I'll be laying her at the odds on she will inevitably shorten to!

    The advantage to staning for a single candidate (my Girl Liz) is not building up unbalanced red.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542
    PB Tories were panicking over a Welsh poll showing the Cons taking seats.

    Now there's a 7 point swing and they are cool as ice.

    The mind of a PB tory is unfathomable.
  • HYUFD said:

    Agree with OGH that while Boris has a clear lead in Leave seats and the Tories will gain seats in Labour Leave areas, in Remain areas the LDs are preferred so could pick up seats like Richmond Park, Cheltenham, Finchley and Golders Green, Wimbledon and Cities of London and Westminster helped by Labour tactical voting to beat the Tories. (Though the Brexit Party standing down in Tory seats will keep the Leave vote blue).

    Lord Heseltine was also on Good Morning Britain this morning urging voters to vote LD to get a second EU referendum much as Tony Blair was yesterday where Labour were not in contention. Heseltine also said Brexit would lead to permanent economic decline for Britain

    There are still a great many Tory voters who despise Heseltine for stabbing Margaret Thatcher in the back. As the Hon Alan Clark said "how can one trust a man who has to buy his own furniture" :) I hope Heseltine and co are now expelled from the Tory party. We don't want or need them.
    Actually it was Michael Jopling, father of one of the fathers of Cool Britannia
  • Looks increasingly like Labour have moved into the low 30s. Tories holding at about 42, so if labour want to get it down to 5 or so they need to eat into the LD vote hard.
    I think the Tories would bank a 10 or 11 gap on the 12th now if offered!

    That LD vote is going to have to take on board the warnings of the Chief Rabbi before lending Labour their vote.
    Ask OGH how he feels about it.
    Equally, Tories lending the LDs their vote. Who wants to block Brexit if the only way is putting an anti-semite in Number 10? We will find out in 16 days.
    I do not expect a late change of tone with regards to deals. The LibDems cannot agree to work with either Johnson or Corbyn and won't. Refusal of Swinson to do even C&S with Johnson is not putting Corbyn into power as we won't do C&S with him either. We will continue to propose and vote for motions for a 2nd referendum whoever is in power.
    I expect tactical voting. Not organised by or officially sanctioned by the parties.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,035
    Dura_Ace said:



    We didn't start it but we did end it.

    The British were the first and only group to industrialise it for the exclusive benefit of a small capital owning class.
    Not really. It lead to the creation of a new, wealthy and influential class. The old aristocrats had to share power with them - Peel being a good example. His grandfather was a yeoman farmer, his father used his wages to join investment clubs to develop the textile industry. Peel then had the resources to serve the country in public life.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098
    Alistair said:

    PB Tories were panicking over a Welsh poll showing the Cons taking seats.

    Now there's a 7 point swing and they are cool as ice.

    The mind of a PB tory is unfathomable.

    Hard to panic over a lead that could give anything from a 20 seat or so maj to a landslide
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 80,846
    edited November 2019
    PM’s Chief of Staff has resigned and will be questioned by the police over a murder.

    https://www.independent.com.mt/articles/2019-11-26/local-news/Keith-Schembri-expected-to-be-questioned-by-police-6736216669

    PM of Malta that is.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,035

    HYUFD said:

    Agree with OGH that while Boris has a clear lead in Leave seats and the Tories will gain seats in Labour Leave areas, in Remain areas the LDs are preferred so could pick up seats like Richmond Park, Cheltenham, Finchley and Golders Green, Wimbledon and Cities of London and Westminster helped by Labour tactical voting to beat the Tories. (Though the Brexit Party standing down in Tory seats will keep the Leave vote blue).

    Lord Heseltine was also on Good Morning Britain this morning urging voters to vote LD to get a second EU referendum much as Tony Blair was yesterday where Labour were not in contention. Heseltine also said Brexit would lead to permanent economic decline for Britain

    There are still a great many Tory voters who despise Heseltine for stabbing Margaret Thatcher in the back. As the Hon Alan Clark said "how can one trust a man who has to buy his own furniture" :) I hope Heseltine and co are now expelled from the Tory party. We don't want or need them.
    Michael Jopling

    Alan Clark was a bitch but he was never that caustic
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,836

    Looks increasingly like Labour have moved into the low 30s. Tories holding at about 42, so if labour want to get it down to 5 or so they need to eat into the LD vote hard.
    I thi k the Tories would bank a 10 or 11 gap on the 12th now if offered!

    That LD vote is going to have to take on board the warnings of the Chief Rabbi before lending Labour their vote.

    Ask OGH how he feels about it.

    Equally, Tories lending the LDs their vote. Who wants to block Brexit if the only way is putting an anti-semite in Number 10? We will find out in 16 days.
    According the Indie Raab was booed at a constituency hustings. Asked the audience if they 'wanted Brexit done' and they largely/overwhelming shouted No!
  • That Kantar poll is going to bring the average lead down to 40 surely
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 4,176
    I can believe that that the Welsh poll has some underlying truth -- I always felt Tory gains in Wales would be more like +5 rather than +10.

    But, the swing in the poll was very remarkable in two weeks where nothing much seems to have happened. Why did Corbyn's ratings favourability ratings improve by +10 in two weeks ?

    The YouGov/Awan-Scully polls do seem to bounce around quite a bit.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,035
    Andy_JS said:

    I'm struggling to understand Michael Heseltine's reasoning on the Today programme. He said Corbyn cannot possibly become PM, so vote Lib Dem or independent Conservative in order to stop Johnson. But who becomes PM in that case?

    He believes the LibDems wouldn’t put Corbyn in power even tacitly
  • FPT
    I don't know if anyone else picked up on this, I couldn't see any replies with a quick scan through.. But this is absolutely outrageous.

    Apparently Jewsish(sic) people have landed themselves in trouble before because they wanted to appear to be 'special'.

    I can't find a way of interpreting this that doesn't scream antisemitism at me.

    ydoethur said:

    And that is Earth-shattering because...?
    Leading Jew criticises leading anti-Semite is not exactly one of the great scoops, is it?

    I'm not for a moment condoning Corbyn on anti-semitism, although he handled it relatively well on the QT debate the other night, but frankly the more the Jewish community keeps whingeing about him the more people will switch off.

    It's become a non-story to the vast majority. Again, I'm not saying that should be the case but it's tedious.

    In fact, if anything it's throwing fuel onto the fire. Jewsish people do NOT want to appear to be 'special.' That's just what has landed them in trouble before.

    Racism is around in many guises, including Islamophobia and anti-immigration. Anti-semitism is awful but so are all forms of racism. The 'Jewish community' would be much better advised to talk about the whole issue.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698

    Looks increasingly like Labour have moved into the low 30s. Tories holding at about 42, so if labour want to get it down to 5 or so they need to eat into the LD vote hard.
    I think the Tories would bank a 10 or 11 gap on the 12th now if offered!

    That LD vote is going to have to take on board the warnings of the Chief Rabbi before lending Labour their vote.
    Ask OGH how he feels about it.
    Equally, Tories lending the LDs their vote. Who wants to block Brexit if the only way is putting an anti-semite in Number 10? We will find out in 16 days.
    I do not expect a late change of tone with regards to deals. The LibDems cannot agree to work with either Johnson or Corbyn and won't. Refusal of Swinson to do even C&S with Johnson is not putting Corbyn into power as we won't do C&S with him either. We will continue to propose and vote for motions for a 2nd referendum whoever is in power.
    I expect tactical voting. Not organised by or officially sanctioned by the parties.
    Sounds likely. Even the most apolitical know that there will be no difference to the outcome whether you vote Lib Dem or Labour and which one is most likely to be effective in your consttuency
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited November 2019
    Mini Sanders surge in the US Democratic primaries polls
  • To any of those who still think the mural that Corbyn now realises was anti-Semitic and has apologised for supporting wasn't in fact anti-Semitic, Lord Dubs was on R4 this morning saying he was horrified by the mural when he saw it. He seemed to imply Corbyn was too ignorant to realise how bad it was, but it's ok because he's apologised.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 591
    IshmaelZ said:

    SunnyJim said:


    .

    Bad things happening hundreds of years ago are probably not the best shield for the anti-Semites in Labour today.
    The point is that the legacy of empire is still with us. The fact that people here either belittle that or claim that the empire is a source of pride is pretty revealing.
    Yes the legacy of Empire which includes abolishing the slave trade, the spread of democracy etc is still with us. Thankfully.

    I do not want to see a return to the slave trade etc which existed pre Empire. Do you?
    The slave trade was arguably the greatest crime in human history, and the British were one of the biggest players and beneficiaries. Yes, we helped to abolish it, but only after we had benefited from it for hundreds of years and only when it was becoming less profitable, in part thanks to the bravery of the enslaved people whose constant revolts were draining the business of its profits and slowly awakening the conscience of people in Britain. And even when we abolished it, we compensated the fucking slave owners! And yet people here are proud of this whole history of bloodshed and plunder. Incredible.
    You don't know your history.

    The slave trade is as old as humanity. We didn't start the fire to quote Billy Joel it existed for thousands of years. It is as old as recorded human history.

    We didn't start it but we did end it.
    Hahahahaha.

    "It is estimated that Britain transported 3.1 million Africans (of whom 2.7 million arrived) to
    the British colonies in the Caribbean, North and South America and to other countries."

    http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/slavery/pdf/britain-and-the-trade.pdf

    And check out this drawing of a British slave ship: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_slave_trade#/media/File:Slaveshipposter_(cropped).jpg
    There's no point arguing with British nationalists about the British Empire, it's like trying to argue with a Chinese nationalist about the occupation of Tibet (and try reading Chinese propaganda about it - exactly the same arguments are used "we built them railways, we brought them economic growth, we ended primitive practices, we gave them science and progress").

    It's a bit like people liking the smell of their own farts. Other empires=bad, our empire=good.
  • Roger said:

    This election is certainly turning weird. Philip Thompson now eulogising over our glorious contribution to the slave trade.

    You accidentally missed a word.

    I am eulogising over our glorious contribution to abolishing the slave trade.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 1,409
    edited November 2019



    ydoethur said:

    And that is Earth-shattering because...?
    Leading Jew criticises leading anti-Semite is not exactly one of the great scoops, is it?

    I'm not for a moment condoning Corbyn on anti-semitism, although he handled it relatively well on the QT debate the other night, but frankly the more the Jewish community keeps whingeing about him the more people will switch off.

    It's become a non-story to the vast majority. Again, I'm not saying that should be the case but it's tedious.

    In fact, if anything it's throwing fuel onto the fire. Jewsish people do NOT want to appear to be 'special.' That's just what has landed them in trouble before.

    Racism is around in many guises, including Islamophobia and anti-immigration. Anti-semitism is awful but so are all forms of racism. The 'Jewish community' would be much better advised to talk about the whole issue.
    FPT
    I don't know if anyone else picked up on this, I couldn't see any replies with a quick scan through.. But this is absolutely outrageous.

    Apparently Jewsish(sic) people have landed themselves in trouble before because they wanted to appear to be 'special'.

    I can't find a way of interpreting this that doesn't scream antisemitism at me.
    Wholeheartedly agree. It's not for a radiohead fan like me to tell the mods their business, but this poster and a couple of others really need asking to take their business elsewhere. Probably to a website with 88 somewhere in its name.
  • "If you had to choose between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, who do you think would make the best leader for Britain?"

    Johnson (Con): 37%
    Corbyn (Lab): 24%
    Neither: 31%
    Don't Know: 9%

    Is that gap closing?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited November 2019
    Alistair said:

    PB Tories were panicking over a Welsh poll showing the Cons taking seats.

    Now there's a 7 point swing and they are cool as ice.

    The mind of a PB tory is unfathomable.

    Kantar still shows a 4.5% Labour to Tory swing since 2017 that is why (and the poll only showed a 3.5% swing anyway)
  • O/T
    Yes I think that pretty well everyone agrees that in deepest London Remainia the LDs are in a position to pick up several Conservative seats, especially if tactical voting starts to kick in.

    However, the opposite side to that coin is that the LDs must be at risk in the seats they hold that voted Leave. That's North Norfolk, Eastbourne and Carshalton, with Leave % votes of 58%, 57% and 56% respectively. I think all three are more likely than not to go Tory even assuming that the LDs pick up a half dozen or so in London. Of these, North Norfolk is the most likely to go blue, aided by Lamb standing down. Westmorland is another where the Leave/Remain vote is fairly evenly split, although I think Farron will hang on there. The betting odds are not properly reflecting the fact that these seats are in play - 6/4 on Con for N Norfolk with Paddy Power and Ladbrokes is good value.

    The constituency polling we have has unfortunately been heavily biased towards the entirely untypical seats which the LDs might feel they are in contention against Con or Lab - 13 of the 18 constituencies with specific polling on the Wiki site. Yet there have been only three constituency polls in seats where Lab is under threat from the Conservatives, and none in seats where the LDs are vulnerable.
  • Dura_Ace said:



    We didn't start it but we did end it.

    The British were the first and only group to industrialise it for the exclusive benefit of a small capital owning class.
    Bullshit.

    The French, Spanish, Portugese, Romans, Greeks, Egyptians, Chinese, Mongols, Mesopotamians and more never did that did they? I suppose you believe aliens rather than slaves built the Pyramids do you? 👽

    Every single power before us used slavery and they all industrialised it in their own methods for their own ruling and wealthy classes. The one thing that marks us out as exceptional is that at the peak of our powers we abolished slavery - no power before us had done that.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,035

    Looks increasingly like Labour have moved into the low 30s. Tories holding at about 42, so if labour want to get it down to 5 or so they need to eat into the LD vote hard.
    I thi k the Tories would bank a 10 or 11 gap on the 12th now if offered!

    That LD vote is going to have to take on board the warnings of the Chief Rabbi before lending Labour their vote.

    Ask OGH how he feels about it.

    Equally, Tories lending the LDs their vote. Who wants to block Brexit if the only way is putting an anti-semite in Number 10? We will find out in 16 days.
    According the Indie Raab was booed at a constituency hustings. Asked the audience if they 'wanted Brexit done' and they largely/overwhelming shouted No!
    @JohnO was there

    He believed the audience had been packed by the LibDems (fair play if so) but that they barracked to prevent Raab being heard rather than in reaction to his points (discourteous if so)

    Either way not sure you can draw meaningful conclusions beyond there is a fired up group of LibDems in Esher
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 1,409
    kamski said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    SunnyJim said:


    .

    Bad things happening hundreds of years ago are probably not the best shield for the anti-Semites in Labour today.
    The point is that the legacy of empire is still with us. The fact that people here either belittle that or claim that the empire is a source of pride is pretty revealing.
    Yes the legacy of Empire which includes abolishing the slave trade, the spread of democracy etc is still with us. Thankfully.

    I do not want to see a return to the slave trade etc which existed pre Empire. Do you?
    The slave trade was arguably the greatest crime in human history, and the British were one of the biggest players and beneficiaries. Yes, we helped to abolish it, but only after we had benefited from it for hundreds of years and only when it was becoming less profitable, in part thanks to the bravery of the enslaved people whose constant revolts were draining the business of its profits and slowly awakening the conscience of people in Britain. And even when we abolished it, we compensated the fucking slave owners! And yet people here are proud of this whole history of bloodshed and plunder. Incredible.
    You don't know your history.

    The slave trade is as old as humanity. We didn't start the fire to quote Billy Joel it existed for thousands of years. It is as old as recorded human history.

    We didn't start it but we did end it.
    Hahahahaha.

    "It is estimated that Britain transported 3.1 million Africans (of whom 2.7 million arrived) to
    the British colonies in the Caribbean, North and South America and to other countries."

    http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/slavery/pdf/britain-and-the-trade.pdf

    And check out this drawing of a British slave ship: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_slave_trade#/media/File:Slaveshipposter_(cropped).jpg
    There's no point arguing with British nationalists about the British Empire, it's like trying to argue with a Chinese nationalist about the occupation of Tibet (and try reading Chinese propaganda about it - exactly the same arguments are used "we built them railways, we brought them economic growth, we ended primitive practices, we gave them science and progress").

    It's a bit like people liking the smell of their own farts. Other empires=bad, our empire=good.
    The test would be to send them on a lecture tour of the Deep South, black-only audiences, to see how easy it is to persuade their listeners that the history of the BE taken as a whole, is powerful evidence of the fundamental decency of the white man.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,251

    That the Chief Rabbi should be compelled to make such an unprecedented statement at this time ought to alert us to the deep sense of insecurity and fear felt by many British Jews: https://t.co/DNxr0Qxht5

    The anglicans wade in

    How long must wait for his Eminence Cardinal Nichols to let us know what he thinks of the late term abortion idea?
  • Looks increasingly like Labour have moved into the low 30s. Tories holding at about 42, so if labour want to get it down to 5 or so they need to eat into the LD vote hard.
    I thi k the Tories would bank a 10 or 11 gap on the 12th now if offered!

    That LD vote is going to have to take on board the warnings of the Chief Rabbi before lending Labour their vote.

    Ask OGH how he feels about it.

    Equally, Tories lending the LDs their vote. Who wants to block Brexit if the only way is putting an anti-semite in Number 10? We will find out in 16 days.
    According the Indie Raab was booed at a constituency hustings. Asked the audience if they 'wanted Brexit done' and they largely/overwhelming shouted No!
    With shipped in Lib Dem supporters. Gee there's a shock.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    edited November 2019
    Interesting from Kantar .

    The Tories have a big lead in turnout amongst their decided voters v Labour voters and it’s this which gives them their big lead . If Labour supporters enthusiasm grows then the lead would be much smaller .
  • Mr. Kamski, rule by might is always wrong. That doesn't mean everything associated with an empire is automatically bad, and it doesn't mean that Britain is unique in either having had an empire or sought to conquer/colonise territory.

    Corbyn's very keen to emphasise the evils of Britain. He's sided with a foreign state over us (and the rest of the international community) over chemicals weapons usage, and seems more content celebrating the Islamic Revolution in Iran than anything British. Labour's recent madness of seeking to throw millions/billions of pounds at people who were never slaves, paid for by people who never had slaves, makes the latest educational policy look like rather a pattern, a desire for the British to feel bad because bad things happened centuries past.

    Goodness knows how guilty the Italians would feel if they ever get lumbered with a Corbynio for leader.

    [It's also bizarre how there's a drive to try and ramp up the evils of the Empire whilst no push at all (rightly) to try and make Germans feel guilty for World War Two and the Holocaust. Why is something further in the past deemed more relevant to today? Why the desire to cling to the guilt rather than learn the lesson of history? Should Yorkshiremen demand compensation from Normandy for the Harrowing of the North? It's crackers].
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited November 2019

    "If you had to choose between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn, who do you think would make the best leader for Britain?"

    Johnson (Con): 37%
    Corbyn (Lab): 24%
    Neither: 31%
    Don't Know: 9%

    Is that gap closing?

    Boris has a bigger lead over Corbyn as preferred PM than the Tories do over Labour nationally and preferred PM is normally the best election predictor
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098
    A snippet from Kantar
    156 BXP voters, 129 of them say Tories as second choice
    Also, I'm not sure if there has been a methodology change, it talks about labour 2017 being misremembered and weighting accordingly but not sure if this is new this time or in the last few.......
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429

    SunnyJim said:


    A perfect example of the tone-deaf attitude towards race and racism on this site. You speak mockingly about the British empire being ghastly - but the empire was ghastly, and an explicitly racist enterprise. It gave us the Atlantic slave trade, the Irish famine, the Bengal famine, the scramble for Africa, the partition of India and nurtured ideas of racial superiority at home that still plague us to this day. And yet the same people who are willing to devote days of the election campaign to the issue of anti Semitism just dismiss this toxic legacy of empire like it's some kind of PC joke.

    Bad things happening hundreds of years ago are probably not the best shield for the anti-Semites in Labour today.
    The point is that the legacy of empire is still with us. The fact that people here either belittle that or claim that the empire is a source of pride is pretty revealing.
    Agreed.

    Though whether the world would have been a better place without it is extremely doubtful - rather there would just have been larger Dutch, French, Spanish, Portugese, or (god help us) Belgian empires...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429

    Mr. Kamski, rule by might is always wrong. That doesn't mean everything associated with an empire is automatically bad, and it doesn't mean that Britain is unique in either having had an empire or sought to conquer/colonise territory.

    Corbyn's very keen to emphasise the evils of Britain. He's sided with a foreign state over us (and the rest of the international community) over chemicals weapons usage, and seems more content celebrating the Islamic Revolution in Iran than anything British. Labour's recent madness of seeking to throw millions/billions of pounds at people who were never slaves, paid for by people who never had slaves, makes the latest educational policy look like rather a pattern, a desire for the British to feel bad because bad things happened centuries past.

    Goodness knows how guilty the Italians would feel if they ever get lumbered with a Corbynio for leader.

    [It's also bizarre how there's a drive to try and ramp up the evils of the Empire whilst no push at all (rightly) to try and make Germans feel guilty for World War Two and the Holocaust. Why is something further in the past deemed more relevant to today? Why the desire to cling to the guilt rather than learn the lesson of history? Should Yorkshiremen demand compensation from Normandy for the Harrowing of the North? It's crackers].

    You're in full whataboutery mode this morning, MD. :smile:
  • HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    PB Tories were panicking over a Welsh poll showing the Cons taking seats.

    Now there's a 7 point swing and they are cool as ice.

    The mind of a PB tory is unfathomable.

    Kantar still shows a 4.5% Labour to Tory swing since 2017 that is why (and the poll only showed a 3.5% swing anyway)
    Kantar are a very strange polling company, showing more volatility in successive polls than any other company. Having been one of the outliers for the Conservatives (e.g. they had Con on 42% in August), they then decided to herd. They changed their methodology in their 7-11 Nov poll which had Con 37 and Lab 27, a 10% lead thanks to the methodology change cutting the lead by 4%. They then came up with an enormous Con lead of 18%, only for this to fall back to 11% in their latest poll.
  • Nigelb said:

    SunnyJim said:


    A perfect example of the tone-deaf attitude towards race and racism on this site. You speak mockingly about the British empire being ghastly - but the empire was ghastly, and an explicitly racist enterprise. It gave us the Atlantic slave trade, the Irish famine, the Bengal famine, the scramble for Africa, the partition of India and nurtured ideas of racial superiority at home that still plague us to this day. And yet the same people who are willing to devote days of the election campaign to the issue of anti Semitism just dismiss this toxic legacy of empire like it's some kind of PC joke.

    Bad things happening hundreds of years ago are probably not the best shield for the anti-Semites in Labour today.
    The point is that the legacy of empire is still with us. The fact that people here either belittle that or claim that the empire is a source of pride is pretty revealing.
    Agreed.

    Though whether the world would have been a better place without it is extremely doubtful - rather there would just have been larger Dutch, French, Spanish, Portugese, or (god help us) Belgian empires...
    Worth remember before us of course there were those Empires. Anyone who objectively looks at the contribution of the Spanish and the English empires can not view us as unmitigatingly evil.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,419
    edited November 2019

    That Kantar poll is going to bring the average lead down to 40 surely

    Poll numbers before today's Kantar were as follows for the Tories:
    41, 43, 41, 42, 47, 42, 42, 41, 43, 42.
    Average of those 10 polls is 42.4%. So 43% today is in line with that average, it's not going to reduce the Tory average share.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383
    nico67 said:

    Interesting from Kantar .

    The Tories have a big lead in turnout amongst their decided voters v Labour voters and it’s this which gives them their big lead . If Labour supporters enthusiasm grows then the lead would be much smaller .

    Once again, assumptions about turnout are going to be key. And, if the polls turn out wrong (again), propensity to vote will be where the error likely arises. In this election the turnout of two groups will be vital - those new Tory leaver converts who previously have shown little motivation to turn out in elections, and those young Remainers who signed the petition and joined the march, but similarly haven't been reliable voters.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698
    edited November 2019
    You sense the great and good are holding fire till they see the whites of their eyes. This morning Hesseltine broke cover.....

    The Great Remain Alliance has held the Tory government in check for three years. Through the courts through multi million name petitions...through the largest demo London has ever seen I'm hoping the next two weeks are going to see an anti Johnson onslaught which will blow this election wide open
  • Nigelb said:

    Mr. Kamski, rule by might is always wrong. That doesn't mean everything associated with an empire is automatically bad, and it doesn't mean that Britain is unique in either having had an empire or sought to conquer/colonise territory.

    Corbyn's very keen to emphasise the evils of Britain. He's sided with a foreign state over us (and the rest of the international community) over chemicals weapons usage, and seems more content celebrating the Islamic Revolution in Iran than anything British. Labour's recent madness of seeking to throw millions/billions of pounds at people who were never slaves, paid for by people who never had slaves, makes the latest educational policy look like rather a pattern, a desire for the British to feel bad because bad things happened centuries past.

    Goodness knows how guilty the Italians would feel if they ever get lumbered with a Corbynio for leader.

    [It's also bizarre how there's a drive to try and ramp up the evils of the Empire whilst no push at all (rightly) to try and make Germans feel guilty for World War Two and the Holocaust. Why is something further in the past deemed more relevant to today? Why the desire to cling to the guilt rather than learn the lesson of history? Should Yorkshiremen demand compensation from Normandy for the Harrowing of the North? It's crackers].

    You're in full whataboutery mode this morning, MD. :smile:
    Its a natural reaction though when people try to rewrite history by suggesting that the English/British Empire was unique in using slaves, when actually we used slaves less than all Empires before us and then abolished slavery which no Empire before us had done.

    Bad stuff happened in the Empire, there's no doubt about that. Abolishing slavery was good - there should be no doubt about that. Its a mixed bag like almost all of history and anyone who claims otherwise is absurd.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    Without the differences in turnout the Tories would be on 36 v Labour on 35 in the Kantar poll !

  • Uncanny that it's always righty Brexiteers who assure everyone that their vision of Brexit has absolutely nothing to do with Empire nostalgia who are the loudest defenders of the BE and its veneration. Probably just a coincidence..
  • olmolm Posts: 124
    edited November 2019

    To any of those who still think the mural that Corbyn now realises was anti-Semitic and has apologised for supporting wasn't in fact anti-Semitic, Lord Dubs was on R4 this morning saying he was horrified by the mural when he saw it. He seemed to imply Corbyn was too ignorant to realise how bad it was, but it's ok because he's apologised.

    There's nothing obviously anti-semitic in that mural. Every time someone dares question why it's anti-semitic, it's not answered. I'm stunned that this trope continues and people seem to exercise no critical function whatsoever. It depicts some of the worlds richest banking magnates (including 3 who happen to be not at all Jewish and 2 who happen to be), feeding off the back of the world's poor, and it more subtly attacks freemasonry (which is not associated with Judaism). Some say the noses are exaggerated: that is not obviously so. Whether the painting is bad, or the otherwise unknown artist may feasibly (or not) be anti-semitic is not relevant to this point. Oh and Berger, Corbyn, Dubs or anyone else thinking initially or later that it is antisemitic demonstrates nothing about whether it actually is so, merely political manoeuvring, as TrèsDifficile's posts alludes to.
  • Roger said:

    You sense the great and good are holding fire till they see the whites of their eyes. This morning Hesseltine broke cover.....

    The Great Remain Alliance has held the Tory government in check for three years. Through the courts through multi million name petitions...through the largest demo London has ever seen Surely the next two weeks are going to see an anti Johnson onslaught which will blow this election wide open

    Hesseltine broke cover years ago. He is a Europhile extremist who ceased to be a Conservative and hasn't reconciled himself to our democratic decision to reverse the work he did in building towards the creation of the EU. We are rejecting a lot of his life's work, this is personal to him and that is not news to anyone. I don't think anyone will swing their vote because of him.
  • Called it.

    Harry Dunn’s family urge voters to unseat Dominic Raab

    Relatives of 19-year-old killed in crash say foreign secretary handled case in ‘outrageous’ way

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/harry-dunn-family-urge-voters-to-unseat-dominic-raab
  • olm said:

    To any of those who still think the mural that Corbyn now realises was anti-Semitic and has apologised for supporting wasn't in fact anti-Semitic, Lord Dubs was on R4 this morning saying he was horrified by the mural when he saw it. He seemed to imply Corbyn was too ignorant to realise how bad it was, but it's ok because he's apologised.

    There's nothing obviously anti-semitic in that mural. Pure rubbish. Every time someone dares question why it's anti-semitic, it's not answered. I'm stunned that this trope continues and people seem to exercise no critical function whatsoever. It depicts some of the worlds richest banking magnates (including 3 who happen to be not at all Jewish and 2 who happen to be), feeding off the back of the world's poor, and it more subtely attacks freemasonry (which is not associated with Judaism). Some say the noses are exaggerated. That is not obviously so. Whether the painting is bad, or the otherwise unknown artist is or feasibly (or not) anti-semitic is not relevant to this point.
    Lord Dubs speaks pure rubbish about antisemitism. Ok.
  • olm said:

    To any of those who still think the mural that Corbyn now realises was anti-Semitic and has apologised for supporting wasn't in fact anti-Semitic, Lord Dubs was on R4 this morning saying he was horrified by the mural when he saw it. He seemed to imply Corbyn was too ignorant to realise how bad it was, but it's ok because he's apologised.

    There's nothing obviously anti-semitic in that mural. Pure rubbish. Every time someone dares question why it's anti-semitic, it's not answered. I'm stunned that this trope continues and people seem to exercise no critical function whatsoever. It depicts some of the worlds richest banking magnates (including 3 who happen to be not at all Jewish and 2 who happen to be), feeding off the back of the world's poor, and it more subtely attacks freemasonry (which is not associated with Judaism). Some say the noses are exaggerated. That is not obviously so. Whether the painting is bad, or the otherwise unknown artist is or feasibly (or not) anti-semitic is not relevant to this point.
    What a bigot.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/28/antisemitism-open-your-eyes-jeremy-corbyn-labour
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    I would be very concerned at Tory HQ by that Kantar poll .

    The headline figure looks good but if Labour increase their turnout then that really throws everything up in the air .
  • RogerRoger Posts: 12,698

    Roger said:

    This election is certainly turning weird. Philip Thompson now eulogising over our glorious contribution to the slave trade.

    You accidentally missed a word.

    I am eulogising over our glorious contribution to abolishing the slave trade.
    After profiting for 300 years? That was timely.
  • Uncanny that it's always righty Brexiteers who assure everyone that their vision of Brexit has absolutely nothing to do with Empire nostalgia who are the loudest defenders of the BE and its veneration. Probably just a coincidence..

    Not really. Brexit does have nothing to do with Empire nostalgia - but people who are not ashamed of their country are less keen to see their country abolished than those who are ashamed of it.
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,882

    Called it.

    Harry Dunn’s family urge voters to unseat Dominic Raab

    Relatives of 19-year-old killed in crash say foreign secretary handled case in ‘outrageous’ way

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/harry-dunn-family-urge-voters-to-unseat-dominic-raab

    Using their dead son to push their politics is pretty low. Worse parents than the Mccanns!
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,882
    nico67 said:

    Without the differences in turnout the Tories would be on 36 v Labour on 35 in the Kantar poll !

    We can be pretty certain the Tories will be in the 40s. Leave vote is 46-52 points.
  • So the recent polls backup Lewis Goodall’s hunch, the man’s a seer.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    Current traffic on the voter registration site is three times higher than for the same time yesterday . And that’s after a massive surge yesterday in younger people registering .
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098
    Another factor to consider iro anti semitism and effect on VI is not the accusation themselves but the effect on waverers of the attack dogs unleashed by momentum on Welby and the Chief Rabbi. The real face of the kinder gentler politics
  • Andy_JS said:

    That Kantar poll is going to bring the average lead down to 40 surely

    Poll numbers before today's Kantar were as follows for the Tories:
    41, 43, 41, 42, 47, 42, 42, 41, 43, 42.
    Average of those 10 polls is 42.4%. So 43% today is in line with that average, it's not going to reduce the Tory average share.

    That 43% is above the median. The 47 is the clear outlier, no doub there'll be a big to do when its subsequent poll is released reversing the outlying.
  • Mr. B, context matters.

    A gaping void in the British collective consciousness is the terror of the Soviet Union. One shan't hold one's breath for Comrade Corbyn to request that be added to the curriculum.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 591

    Mr. Kamski, rule by might is always wrong. That doesn't mean everything associated with an empire is automatically bad, and it doesn't mean that Britain is unique in either having had an empire or sought to conquer/colonise territory.

    Corbyn's very keen to emphasise the evils of Britain. He's sided with a foreign state over us (and the rest of the international community) over chemicals weapons usage, and seems more content celebrating the Islamic Revolution in Iran than anything British. Labour's recent madness of seeking to throw millions/billions of pounds at people who were never slaves, paid for by people who never had slaves, makes the latest educational policy look like rather a pattern, a desire for the British to feel bad because bad things happened centuries past.

    Goodness knows how guilty the Italians would feel if they ever get lumbered with a Corbynio for leader.

    [It's also bizarre how there's a drive to try and ramp up the evils of the Empire whilst no push at all (rightly) to try and make Germans feel guilty for World War Two and the Holocaust. Why is something further in the past deemed more relevant to today? Why the desire to cling to the guilt rather than learn the lesson of history? Should Yorkshiremen demand compensation from Normandy for the Harrowing of the North? It's crackers].

    I made no comment on Corbyn or Labour, merely pointing out that apologists for imperialism make the same arguments everywhere.

    I'm not sure what you mean about trying to make Germans feel guilty? I find Germany to be one of the few countries to have a realistic view of its past, and would strongly welcome Britain adopting the same attitude. There is no nostalgia here for the German Overseas Empire that effectively ended in the First World War - which is the equivalent of the British Empire (the attempt to create a "Third Empire" in the 30s and 40s being a little different, although Hitler was inspired by the British Empire). No Germans are saying the German Empire was better than other empires - although you can certainly find literature from the 20s and 30s from German rightwing historians claiming exactly that, saying that German rule in places like German East Africa had been better than British, French or Belgian rule in their African colonies (citing, for example, the superior education system and, yes, the railways again). And arguing that it was terrible injustice that the former German colonies were effectively under the control of those countries. It's really striking how those arguments from German nationalists in the 20s sound exactly the same as current glorifiers of Britain's past.

    If you want to feel proud of your country, feel proud of Goethe and Beethoven or Shakespeare and Darwin. Glorification of the history of violence is just ugly and dangerous.
  • Brom said:

    Called it.

    Harry Dunn’s family urge voters to unseat Dominic Raab

    Relatives of 19-year-old killed in crash say foreign secretary handled case in ‘outrageous’ way

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/harry-dunn-family-urge-voters-to-unseat-dominic-raab

    Using their dead son to push their politics is pretty low. Worse parents than the Mccanns!
    Their statement sounds very considered to me - just asking people to assess whether Raab's an oaf.
  • nico67 said:

    Current traffic on the voter registration site is three times higher than for the same time yesterday . And that’s after a massive surge yesterday in younger people registering .

    Is this your first election? Same thing happens every single election. Today is deadline day, lots of people will re-register today just to be safe, or leave it to today to do so. Happens every time.
  • Uncanny that it's always righty Brexiteers who assure everyone that their vision of Brexit has absolutely nothing to do with Empire nostalgia who are the loudest defenders of the BE and its veneration. Probably just a coincidence..

    Not really. Brexit does have nothing to do with Empire nostalgia - but people who are not ashamed of their country are less keen to see their country abolished than those who are ashamed of it.
    But your an English nationalist. What's the long dead British Empire got to do with your country, abolished or not?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,035

    Uncanny that it's always righty Brexiteers who assure everyone that their vision of Brexit has absolutely nothing to do with Empire nostalgia who are the loudest defenders of the BE and its veneration. Probably just a coincidence..

    Not really.

    People who don’t believe that the U.K. can be an independent force for good in the world are more likely to sublimate us in the EU.

    I used U.K. because I would hate to understate the contribution of our brave Scottish brothers and sisters to the empire
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,882

    So the recent polls backup Lewis Goodall’s hunch, the man’s a seer.

    Not at all. He's been saying for 2 weeks that neither were popular on the doorstep. Clearly one party is considerably more popular than the other hence the large leads.
  • Another factor to consider iro anti semitism and effect on VI is not the accusation themselves but the effect on waverers of the attack dogs unleashed by momentum on Welby and the Chief Rabbi. The real face of the kinder gentler politics

    There’s the potential that Labour might get a boost from it.

    Something I looked at last year, Leavers are more likely to endorse antisemitic statements for example.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/15/theres-the-potential-for-labour-to-get-a-long-term-polling-boost-because-of-their-anti-semitism-issues/
  • olmolm Posts: 124
    edited November 2019

    Roger said:

    This election is certainly turning weird. Philip Thompson now eulogising over our glorious contribution to the slave trade.

    You accidentally missed a word.

    I am eulogising over our glorious contribution to abolishing the slave trade.
    Is that like the glory of a terrorist kidnapper releasing remaining hostages (having tortured them, and killed the others)?

    A better move, yes. Better fortune for those who no longer have to suffer, yes.

    But it's hard for one to see glory in ceasing to incarcerate, murder, and abuse humans (in this case for the earlier financial gain for an empire that still leaves many legacies, including a substantial element of the framework for control of land, human, and natural resources today).
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311

    nico67 said:

    Current traffic on the voter registration site is three times higher than for the same time yesterday . And that’s after a massive surge yesterday in younger people registering .

    Is this your first election? Same thing happens every single election. Today is deadline day, lots of people will re-register today just to be safe, or leave it to today to do so. Happens every time.
    I know that , in 2017 about 37% of applications were duplicates. But it’s obvious that even allowing for that if you have many more overall applications you’re still going to end up with more registered once you take around 37% off that total .
  • isamisam Posts: 30,713
    edited November 2019
    nico67 said:

    Interesting from Kantar .

    The Tories have a big lead in turnout amongst their decided voters v Labour voters and it’s this which gives them their big lead . If Labour supporters enthusiasm grows then the lead would be much smaller .

    What an insight! Sherlock Holmes himself would be proud of such powers of deduction
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 1,409
    olm said:

    To any of those who still think the mural that Corbyn now realises was anti-Semitic and has apologised for supporting wasn't in fact anti-Semitic, Lord Dubs was on R4 this morning saying he was horrified by the mural when he saw it. He seemed to imply Corbyn was too ignorant to realise how bad it was, but it's ok because he's apologised.

    There's nothing obviously anti-semitic in that mural. Every time someone dares question why it's anti-semitic, it's not answered. I'm stunned that this trope continues and people seem to exercise no critical function whatsoever. It depicts some of the worlds richest banking magnates (including 3 who happen to be not at all Jewish and 2 who happen to be), feeding off the back of the world's poor, and it more subtly attacks freemasonry (which is not associated with Judaism). Some say the noses are exaggerated: that is not obviously so. Whether the painting is bad, or the otherwise unknown artist may feasibly (or not) be anti-semitic is not relevant to this point. Oh and Berger, Corbyn, Dubs or anyone else thinking initially or later that it is antisemitic demonstrates nothing about whether it actually is so, merely political manoeuvring, as TrèsDifficile's posts alludes to.
    Heard a joke the other day:

    "How do you tell the difference between an antisemite and a relentless, monotonous, irrational denier, mitigator and defender of antisemitism?"

    "I don't know. How do you tell the difference between an antisemite and a relentless, monotonous, irrational denier, mitigator and defender of antisemitism?"

    "I don't know either."

    And https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judeo-Masonic_conspiracy_theory

    You don't seem able to take the most basic steps to ensure you know what you are talking about.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,155
    edited November 2019
    Charles said:

    Uncanny that it's always righty Brexiteers who assure everyone that their vision of Brexit has absolutely nothing to do with Empire nostalgia who are the loudest defenders of the BE and its veneration. Probably just a coincidence..

    Not really.

    People who don’t believe that the U.K. can be an independent force for good in the world are more likely to sublimate us in the EU.

    I used U.K. because I would hate to understate the contribution of our brave Scottish brothers and sisters to the empire
    So it's not really a coincidence? Ok.
    You're certainly right that I don’t believe that the U.K. governed by people like Johnson, Patel and Raab and in thrall to Trump can be an independent force for good in the world. These ****s would be hard pressed to be a force for good in their own back gardens.
  • Uncanny that it's always righty Brexiteers who assure everyone that their vision of Brexit has absolutely nothing to do with Empire nostalgia who are the loudest defenders of the BE and its veneration. Probably just a coincidence..

    Not really. Brexit does have nothing to do with Empire nostalgia - but people who are not ashamed of their country are less keen to see their country abolished than those who are ashamed of it.
    But your an English nationalist. What's the long dead British Empire got to do with your country, abolished or not?
    And you are a Scottish nationalist. What's that got to do with anything?

    Britain is my country just as it is yours. You may perhaps turn your back on Britain, but I don't. There is a continuum between England and Britain and the United Kingdom. Unless or until England becomes independent again my country will be the UK.
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,882

    Another factor to consider iro anti semitism and effect on VI is not the accusation themselves but the effect on waverers of the attack dogs unleashed by momentum on Welby and the Chief Rabbi. The real face of the kinder gentler politics

    There’s the potential that Labour might get a boost from it.

    Something I looked at last year, Leavers are more likely to endorse antisemitic statements for example.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/04/15/theres-the-potential-for-labour-to-get-a-long-term-polling-boost-because-of-their-anti-semitism-issues/
    already on BBC website you've got Momentum types saying the Rabbi is wrong and his type control the media. However I can't imagine Welby's input is going to be of any help to Labour.
  • Charles said:

    Uncanny that it's always righty Brexiteers who assure everyone that their vision of Brexit has absolutely nothing to do with Empire nostalgia who are the loudest defenders of the BE and its veneration. Probably just a coincidence..

    Not really.

    People who don’t believe that the U.K. can be an independent force for good in the world are more likely to sublimate us in the EU.

    I used U.K. because I would hate to understate the contribution of our brave Scottish brothers and sisters to the empire
    So it's not really a coincidence? Ok.
    You're certainly right that I don’t believe that the U.K. governed by people like Johnson, Patel and Raab and in thrall to Trump can be an independent force for good in the world. These ****s would be hard pressed to be a force for good in their own back gardens.
    I think liberal Conservatives like Johnson and [I think] Patel definitely can be an independent force for good in the world. Raab I'm not fussed about.

    Its noteworthy that contrary to all the stink raised about her Patel has been in the Home Office liberalising things not being more authoritarian than her predecessors.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,553

    Called it.

    Harry Dunn’s family urge voters to unseat Dominic Raab

    Relatives of 19-year-old killed in crash say foreign secretary handled case in ‘outrageous’ way

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/harry-dunn-family-urge-voters-to-unseat-dominic-raab

    I'd be the last to defend a tory prick like Mr. Raaboto but WTF do they expect him to have done? The Northamptonshire Motorcycle Murderer was a spook or the wife of a spook or both. There is no way the US are going to respond to anything Raab could have said or done with anything other than an entreaty that he should go and fuck himself.
  • olm said:

    Roger said:

    This election is certainly turning weird. Philip Thompson now eulogising over our glorious contribution to the slave trade.

    You accidentally missed a word.

    I am eulogising over our glorious contribution to abolishing the slave trade.
    Is that like the glory of a terrorist kidnapper releasing remaining hostages (having tortured them, and killed the others)?

    A better move, yes. Better fortune for those who no longer have to suffer, yes.

    But it's hard for one to see glory in ceasing to incarcerate, murder, and abuse humans (in this case for the earlier financial gain for an empire that still leaves many legacies, including a substantial element of the framework for control of land, human, and natural resources today).
    Because you are a fool who is looking from today's standards.

    Historically slavery was normal. Its in the Bible, its in every power historically. That the UK abolished it is absolutely unprecedented and remarkable. We only view slavery as being odd now precisely BECAUSE it was abolished by our predecessors, had we been born hundreds or thousands of years ago it would have been normal.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,502
    Brom said:

    nico67 said:

    Without the differences in turnout the Tories would be on 36 v Labour on 35 in the Kantar poll !

    We can be pretty certain the Tories will be in the 40s. Leave vote is 46-52 points.
    By that logic, can't you say that the Lib Dems will be in the 40s or 50s?
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,089

    Charles said:

    Uncanny that it's always righty Brexiteers who assure everyone that their vision of Brexit has absolutely nothing to do with Empire nostalgia who are the loudest defenders of the BE and its veneration. Probably just a coincidence..

    Not really.

    People who don’t believe that the U.K. can be an independent force for good in the world are more likely to sublimate us in the EU.

    I used U.K. because I would hate to understate the contribution of our brave Scottish brothers and sisters to the empire
    So it's not really a coincidence? Ok.
    You're certainly right that I don’t believe that the U.K. governed by people like Johnson, Patel and Raab and in thrall to Trump can be an independent force for good in the world. These ****s would be hard pressed to be a force for good in their own back gardens.
    I think liberal Conservatives like Johnson and [I think] Patel definitely can be an independent force for good in the world. Raab I'm not fussed about.

    Its noteworthy that contrary to all the stink raised about her Patel has been in the Home Office liberalising things not being more authoritarian than her predecessors.
    Is the death penalty a liberal Conservative position?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098
    I wonder what polling leads the two parties would prefer in polling week?
    Labour would settle for a 12 or so lead, might make tories complacent or willing to go LD if remainy
    Tories might prefer 7 or 8, lead to a panic vote stampede to stop the Corbot
  • Chris said:

    Brom said:

    nico67 said:

    Without the differences in turnout the Tories would be on 36 v Labour on 35 in the Kantar poll !

    We can be pretty certain the Tories will be in the 40s. Leave vote is 46-52 points.
    By that logic, can't you say that the Lib Dems will be in the 40s or 50s?
    Polls show the vast, vast majority of Leave votes are going to the Tories and the Tories have been in the 40s for the last 20 consecutive polls across all pollsters.

    Is that the case with the Lib Dems? Are they claiming the vast, vast majority of Remain voters? I don't think so.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,502
    IshmaelZ said:

    olm said:

    To any of those who still think the mural that Corbyn now realises was anti-Semitic and has apologised for supporting wasn't in fact anti-Semitic, Lord Dubs was on R4 this morning saying he was horrified by the mural when he saw it. He seemed to imply Corbyn was too ignorant to realise how bad it was, but it's ok because he's apologised.

    There's nothing obviously anti-semitic in that mural. Every time someone dares question why it's anti-semitic, it's not answered. I'm stunned that this trope continues and people seem to exercise no critical function whatsoever. It depicts some of the worlds richest banking magnates (including 3 who happen to be not at all Jewish and 2 who happen to be), feeding off the back of the world's poor, and it more subtly attacks freemasonry (which is not associated with Judaism). Some say the noses are exaggerated: that is not obviously so. Whether the painting is bad, or the otherwise unknown artist may feasibly (or not) be anti-semitic is not relevant to this point. Oh and Berger, Corbyn, Dubs or anyone else thinking initially or later that it is antisemitic demonstrates nothing about whether it actually is so, merely political manoeuvring, as TrèsDifficile's posts alludes to.
    Heard a joke the other day:

    "How do you tell the difference between an antisemite and a relentless, monotonous, irrational denier, mitigator and defender of antisemitism?"

    "I don't know. How do you tell the difference between an antisemite and a relentless, monotonous, irrational denier, mitigator and defender of antisemitism?"

    "I don't know either."

    And https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judeo-Masonic_conspiracy_theory

    You don't seem able to take the most basic steps to ensure you know what you are talking about.
    You do realise you've just illustrated what was said in the comment you replied to: "Every time someone dares question why it's anti-semitic, it's not answered."?

    Why not answer it?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Called it.

    Harry Dunn’s family urge voters to unseat Dominic Raab

    Relatives of 19-year-old killed in crash say foreign secretary handled case in ‘outrageous’ way

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/harry-dunn-family-urge-voters-to-unseat-dominic-raab

    I'd be the last to defend a tory prick like Mr. Raaboto but WTF do they expect him to have done? The Northamptonshire Motorcycle Murderer was a spook or the wife of a spook or both. There is no way the US are going to respond to anything Raab could have said or done with anything other than an entreaty that he should go and fuck himself.
    I think it was Raab's tone afterwards - bleating about a hit to his departmental budget - that appalled.
  • 148grss said:

    Charles said:

    Uncanny that it's always righty Brexiteers who assure everyone that their vision of Brexit has absolutely nothing to do with Empire nostalgia who are the loudest defenders of the BE and its veneration. Probably just a coincidence..

    Not really.

    People who don’t believe that the U.K. can be an independent force for good in the world are more likely to sublimate us in the EU.

    I used U.K. because I would hate to understate the contribution of our brave Scottish brothers and sisters to the empire
    So it's not really a coincidence? Ok.
    You're certainly right that I don’t believe that the U.K. governed by people like Johnson, Patel and Raab and in thrall to Trump can be an independent force for good in the world. These ****s would be hard pressed to be a force for good in their own back gardens.
    I think liberal Conservatives like Johnson and [I think] Patel definitely can be an independent force for good in the world. Raab I'm not fussed about.

    Its noteworthy that contrary to all the stink raised about her Patel has been in the Home Office liberalising things not being more authoritarian than her predecessors.
    Is the death penalty a liberal Conservative position?
    Does Patel support the death penalty?
  • Uncanny that it's always righty Brexiteers who assure everyone that their vision of Brexit has absolutely nothing to do with Empire nostalgia who are the loudest defenders of the BE and its veneration. Probably just a coincidence..

    Not really. Brexit does have nothing to do with Empire nostalgia - but people who are not ashamed of their country are less keen to see their country abolished than those who are ashamed of it.
    But your an English nationalist. What's the long dead British Empire got to do with your country, abolished or not?
    And you are a Scottish nationalist. What's that got to do with anything?

    Britain is my country just as it is yours. You may perhaps turn your back on Britain, but I don't. There is a continuum between England and Britain and the United Kingdom. Unless or until England becomes independent again my country will be the UK.
    And yet, there is the Brexit condundrum. England wants to Leave, Scotland and NI want to Remain. Brexit is largely driven by English nationalism.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,836
    edited November 2019

    Uncanny that it's always righty Brexiteers who assure everyone that their vision of Brexit has absolutely nothing to do with Empire nostalgia who are the loudest defenders of the BE and its veneration. Probably just a coincidence..

    Not really. Brexit does have nothing to do with Empire nostalgia - but people who are not ashamed of their country are less keen to see their country abolished than those who are ashamed of it.
    But your an English nationalist. What's the long dead British Empire got to do with your country, abolished or not?
    And you are a Scottish nationalist. What's that got to do with anything?

    Britain is my country just as it is yours. You may perhaps turn your back on Britain, but I don't. There is a continuum between England and Britain and the United Kingdom. Unless or until England becomes independent again my country will be the UK.
    As it is mine. For right or wrong, warts and all. We are the result of our history, for good or ill. Some of my ancestors, as individuals, don't seem to be have been 'very nice people' but there's SFA I can do about it. Some of them appear to have done things that I would not have done, but again, there's little to be done now, apart from learn from what appear to have been their mistakes and try not to repeat them.

    As I hope, will my grandchildren and great-grandchildren (if any) when they look at my life and doings.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Called it.

    Harry Dunn’s family urge voters to unseat Dominic Raab

    Relatives of 19-year-old killed in crash say foreign secretary handled case in ‘outrageous’ way

    https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/harry-dunn-family-urge-voters-to-unseat-dominic-raab

    I'd be the last to defend a tory prick like Mr. Raaboto but WTF do they expect him to have done? The Northamptonshire Motorcycle Murderer was a spook or the wife of a spook or both. There is no way the US are going to respond to anything Raab could have said or done with anything other than an entreaty that he should go and fuck himself.
    All true, but Raab is a waste of space. Whoever replaces him could only be an improvement.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,089
    kamski said:



    I'm not sure what you mean about trying to make Germans feel guilty? I find Germany to be one of the few countries to have a realistic view of its past, and would strongly welcome Britain adopting the same attitude. There is no nostalgia here for the German Overseas Empire that effectively ended in the First World War - which is the equivalent of the British Empire (the attempt to create a "Third Empire" in the 30s and 40s being a little different, although Hitler was inspired by the British Empire). No Germans are saying the German Empire was better than other empires - although you can certainly find literature from the 20s and 30s from German rightwing historians claiming exactly that, saying that German rule in places like German East Africa had been better than British, French or Belgian rule in their African colonies (citing, for example, the superior education system and, yes, the railways again). And arguing that it was terrible injustice that the former German colonies were effectively under the control of those countries. It's really striking how those arguments from German nationalists in the 20s sound exactly the same as current glorifiers of Britain's past.

    If you want to feel proud of your country, feel proud of Goethe and Beethoven or Shakespeare and Darwin. Glorification of the history of violence is just ugly and dangerous.

    I don't know if people here have read Inglorious Empire by Shashi Tharoor, but it opened my eyes to a lot of things. I was never an Empire defender, but still the British education system had taught me certain things about pre colonial India that were obviously false, and the concept of our Empire doing "good" is taken down point by point. The really interesting stuff looks into specific sectors where India was a world leader and how the English specifically regulated away those sectors (building boats being one) so that English manufacturing could monopolise a market, whilst at the same time crowing about free trade. V interesting read.
  • Chris said:

    You do realise you've just illustrated what was said in the comment you replied to: "Every time someone dares question why it's anti-semitic, it's not answered."?

    Why not answer it?

    I already did.
  • Uncanny that it's always righty Brexiteers who assure everyone that their vision of Brexit has absolutely nothing to do with Empire nostalgia who are the loudest defenders of the BE and its veneration. Probably just a coincidence..

    Not really. Brexit does have nothing to do with Empire nostalgia - but people who are not ashamed of their country are less keen to see their country abolished than those who are ashamed of it.
    But your an English nationalist. What's the long dead British Empire got to do with your country, abolished or not?
    And you are a Scottish nationalist. What's that got to do with anything?

    Britain is my country just as it is yours. You may perhaps turn your back on Britain, but I don't. There is a continuum between England and Britain and the United Kingdom. Unless or until England becomes independent again my country will be the UK.
    As it is mine. For right or wrong, warts and all. We are the result of our history, for good or ill. Some of my ancestors, as individuals, don't seem to be have been 'very nice people' but there's SFA I can do about it. Some of them appear to have done things that I would not have done, but again, there's little to be done now, apart from learn from what appear to have been their mistakes and try not to repeat them.

    As I hope, will my grandchildren and great-grandchildren (if any) when they look at my life and doings.
    Well said.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 1,777
    Heard Andy McDonald on the radio this morning and he did as well as could be hoped defending Corbyn.

    One question remained unasked. His defence seemed to be that Corbyn has campaigned against racism his entire career. My question to that would be if he has campaigned for 50 years against racism how come he can’t identify racism in a mural and how come he happened to commemorate racist terrorist killers? If he is a lifelong campaigner against Antisemitism then he is useless at it.

    The other thing I heard from a Jewish caller to LBC was that anti Zionist is anti Semitic, as it wants to eliminate the state of israel. Whilst disagreeing with individual politicians or state policy is not racist, calling for the end to a state is.
  • Following quotes from holocaust survivor Lord Dubs on Labour and AS, according to the Guardian:

    I think, I have a lot of respect for the chief rabbi, I’ve co-operated with him on campaigns on behalf of child refugees, I’ve spoken to him in many synagogues and I’ve got a lot of positive feeling about the Jewish community, but I think today the chief rabbi has gone too far …

    I think the Labour party has been much too slow in getting to grips with this, and I’ve been critical of the Labour party over the last two or three years, but I feel we are getting there, and I want to look at it from the point of view of where we are today and moving forward.

    Asked if he thought Corbyn was fit to be prime minister, Dubs replied:

    I think he is, yes, I think he is fit to be prime minister. I do not believe he is antisemitic. I believe things have happened under his leadership which should have been stopped way back.

    I don’t believe he is personally antisemitic and I believe he will find it very, very hurtful that people accuse him of being antisemitic or racist or Islamophobic. He is none of those things.

    Asked whether Jewish people should fear a Labour government, Dubs said:

    I would say you do not have to fear. There are many of us in the Labour party who will ensure that there is no fear for you, and we respect your concerns but let’s move forwards.
This discussion has been closed.