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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big MRP message for Tory remainers is that Corbyn can’t be
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big MRP message for Tory remainers is that Corbyn can’t become PM
Most of the focus on the two MRP sets of projections that we got last night is that in certain key seats tactical voting has the potential to impede the pro-Brexit Tories. Certainly in the bellwether seat of Bedford where I live both YouGov and the Best for Britain suggest that the Tories are just one percent ahead and it won’t take much to have an impact.
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There is only one way to do that and it is to vote conservative
His promise to 'Get Brexit Done' needs to be interrogated. We need to know precisely how he will will avoid a cold, hard Brexit in 12 months. A promise is required. We cannot afford to give him a blank cheque.
I'm sure someone with a better stats background will be along soon to explain where I've gone wrong.
For all Boris’ faults, he’s not leading an institutionally racist party and doesn’t want to take Britain back to the 1970s. His party will also not hesitate to knife him in the front, if he becomes a liability.
As Jonathan says Johnson has made promises he can't keep which means either he is a liar, a fool or both.
Now I know that neither option is good but as Labour can't win a majority at least he would be controlled by other factors - Boris with a majority won't be.
All they have to do now is find a candidate who can appeal to the membership, and then work out how to defeat the Tories.
Personally I think the disaster that has befallen U.K. politics in recent years can almost all be traced back to the election of Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party. Virtually everything else has flowed from there.
Obviously OGH wants to push the narrative that it is safe to vote anti-Tory without the risk of Corbyn but that is just spin. Corbyn remains a genuine risk (if you regard his Premiership as a risk) and the only way to prevent him is by voting Tory.
For me the key is the collapse of the lib dems due to the 'stupid' revoke policy poorly promoted by Jo Swinson. Labour are in trouble in leave areas and planting billions of trees is not going to move the dial as it is recognised leave voting areas are not impressed by climate change policies
The polls have not had time to reflect the dreadful last two days for Corbyn and even this morning when I switched on the tv Barry Gardiner was still trying to defend Corbyn's non apology
There are only 13 days left to turn the dial, tempus fugit, and it is running out rapidly
I could be persuaded to vote otherwise in some circumstances but Corbyn has to be soundly defeated and gone by Xmas would be my best Xmas present
Of course you want to stop a Tory majority so will push this line but it is thoroughly misleading.
How does planting a tree help with CO2 levels? I understand it will absorb CO2 during its life, but when it dies surely it will release the carbon as it decomposes or is burned.
For previous examples, see Andy Coulson, Damien McBride, Alastair Campbell, Willie Whitelaw...
Is this correct? Are there any others?
The election of Corbyn was absolutely key to the Brexit referendum result, agreed (and it is not acknowledged enough the role that Corbyn played, far more important than "Russian interference").
But, Corbyn himself happened because of the huge disillusionment in New Labour following the financial crisis & the Iraq War. Corbyn was inevitable.
Good luck with that...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HYvNvaq3xaLjItv6PH0zFxoh3cwec3sL5WB5tByKbsY/edit#gid=0
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Sbmz9OAwHUz8fuFN2S9s011tDQw_RXmr4W1wjUb6bnw/edit#gid=0
Yes you can trace everything back to Corbyn being elected but for that you need to blame Ed Miliband and Margaret Beckett.
MRP poll has as clear Labour.
Thoughts?
Second point, if the overall level of tree coverage is increased, then this will hold more CO2 in a dynamic steady state (!) than with lower tree coverage, so less CO2 in the atmosphere.
My model does not rely on demographics at all - not even remain/leave of each seat. It assumes that the demographics of each seat are "baked in" to the 2017 actual result including the relative strength of the activists base, council representation, history etc that I don't think the MRP model reflects. It then applies assumptions about tactical voting. It is a model.
The appeal of the MRP model is that it was close last time. But that is a sample of one. I think it was also used in the US so a sample of two.
Imagine a heavily promoted modelling technique (with whizzy multilevel Regression and Post-stratification) that correctly picked the 20/1 winner of last year's Grand National. Would its prediction for this year influence the betting? You bet it would - whether it was a sound model or not! "The computer says"
For this reason I'm betting against the MRP which has moved certain markets e.g LD over 25.5 seats at 3.35 looks good value. It shot up after the MRP was published.
EDIT. If my model proves to be spot on this time, you shouldn't assume it is a good model. It might just be lucky. But I suspect it would be followed with close attention next time!
EDIT But not a bad bet either. I think it is about right. I have Cambridge 44% LD, 41% Lab.
The answers really come down to the fact that inequality has risen so much in the UK that someone like Corbyn is a very attractive figure to many. And the EU has been one of the main drivers of inequality, with places like Cambridge awash with EU cash, and places like Blaenau Gwent with hardly any.
https://heartwood.woodlandtrust.org.uk/
600,000 new trees.
What if Corbyn had never made the shortlist?
We'd likely have Cooper or Burnham as Labour leader. Neither titans, but neither far left nutcases either. Both pro-EU. Likely would've helped win the pro-EU side the referendum.
Osborne would probably be PM. Jews would feel more relaxed about living here.
Would there be a push for greater EU integration? Would UKIP be riding high in the polls?
Hard to say. But the far left squatting on Labour's front bench would've been avoided, and that would be a very good thing.
Edited for para-spacing.
However, I think Mike is right on the sentiment, the risk from the Corbyn PM is now far lower than it was pre-election as the scenarios of Labour doing well enough to give him real power have virtually disappeared. At best (for him) he will be able to govern for six months to deliver a referendum and then call another GE, which is presumably in line with Tory remainers wishes. In that six months we are not going to be nationalising anything or bunging billions to the waspis.
But we know it's party before country for the tories.
Every single time.
However, it's impact will be real. The parties will react to it and that will make changes.
Labour seem to want to target their leavers. So a more explicit pro-leave message, reinforcing the obvious reality that a Labour government would back a Labour negotiated leave deal*. This combined with Tories feeling more comfortable that Corbyn wont win means less Tory one nation remainers clinging to a party they no longer recognise. Thus fragmenting the growing squeeze.
*Labour's plans to steal vast billions from pension funds by nationalizing companies at a price they set rather than the market price is screamingly illegal under EU law. As I've been saying for ages Corbyn is a leaver so nobody can stop him renationalising National Carriers and BOAC. This latest confirmation that the EU would tie us up in court just reinforces it
https://www.ecosia.org/
Where you have a point is that the MRP will itself affect the result. Last time it came late and few people believed it. This time it comes early and, as you say, with a lot of credibility.
I see from their website that the Daily Mail has now cottoned on to the fact that Labour's dividend tax rises will really hit lots of small businesses very hard. This is another example of Labour totally misleading voters with their claim that only the top 5% would pay more tax.
Corbyn is becoming estranged from the truth. Yesterday's ludicrous claims about the NHS and today's fantasy plan to plan zillions of trees suggest that panic is beginning to set in and Labour's response seems to be even more outlandish claims. Whatever next?
Corbyn and McDonnell are absolutely ruthless.
On the plus side, after 37 years wondering, we may have found a genuine use for the Falkland Islands where land cost 1000x less.
The only way Corbyn can realistically become PM is with an Overall Majority. That's 33/1 against as I write and I'd be a layer, not a backer, even at that price.
He might just about manage it, you might think, with a little help from his friends if he comes up a few short of 325 seats. But he ain't got many friends. The price for them supporting a Labour Government would almost certainly be his removal and replacement with a much more acceptable kind of Leader. It would also imply a much more centreist Labour government in Office.
You can see the appeal for Leavers like me. I can see it too for Remain Tories. Boris would go, the traditional Tory Party would resume control, the Brexiteers who hijacked the Party would be vanquished and we might even have a second look at the whole question of revisiting the referendum in the light of what we have learned since.
Seems a very positive way to use one's vote to me.
There is no room for complacency.
Corbyn only needs NOM.
There are still 2 weeks to go.
https://mobile.twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1199970855394119683
If the Conservatives want the votes of younger people they need to not saddle them with so much debt, make buying houses easier/renting cheaper and show that whilst they are patriotic they are also relaxed about multi-levelled identities.
I don't climate change really features here, actually, as the Tories do actually have a good practical set of policies in place that are both deliverable and realistic.
We already have a pretty good idea of where we end up, thanks to other agreements the EU has already signed with Canada and Japan. Trade in goods will be pretty much the same as those two agreements, with hopefully an agreement on access to services if the EU can accept regulatory equivalence rather than alignment. Once the EU agreement is concluded we can look to joining other trade groups such as the TPP.
But, we know he's a snake and will throw anyone under a bus to save himself.
In my view, that means he will ratfuck the ERG to get a good, close relationship with the EU, and build on that with a nominal "thin" US one, and similar with Oz, Nz, Japan and Canada.
I don't think he's a No Dealer, but he will be boxed in if he only gets a majority of ten - he really needs 60-80.
The big changes in demographics are reflected in the change in vote share. My model is not static. If it were, it would produce the same results as last time.
Must be just about damned perfect.
The implied logic of OGH's lead is that, once Corbyn has no chance of winning, his -ism is best defeated by lending a hand to the LibDems in replacing Labour as the opposition, if not nationally (this time, so it seems) then in as many seats as possible.