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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Commons seats spread betting markets appear to have settle

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  • argyllrs said:

    I think there's still some value selling Tory seats on those spreads.

    Don't get me wrong... Tory Maj 30 (ie c340 seats) is well within the realms of possibility, even likely. But my gut feeling is around a further limited tightening of the polls putting that at the upper end of expectations.

    Apart from that, the unknowns feel to me more unknown than usual: turnout on a potentially snowy day; marginals in Scotland and N/Mid England which may not follow established expectations; the ability of both main leaders not to royally screw something up in the last week; the whim of the electorate which seems hell bent on delivering tied contests at every opportunity in some some of weird collective murmuration.

    But (shrugs) maybe it's like that every time and we kid ourselves this time it's different :)

    So many unknowns to factor in this time round.
    How many remainers will vote against Tories in London and South Marginals.
    How many Lab voters will hold their noses to vote Tory. Could be the difference of 50 seats changing hands there alone.
    In Scotland, Will SNP win all SNP/CON marginals or will Tories hold all of their seats, maybe even pick up another couple.

    Hopeless task for pollsters to pick up a lot of these shy voters correctly.
    ^ All of this.

    Just feels impossible to know how all those will swing when they got to the polling booth. And given the "75 voters decided GE2017" stat that's been doing the rounds this week, I'm sure there are several dozen seats which may not conform to bookies'/pollsters' expectations. Scotland on its own could screw things up for Boz.

    (By the way, none of this really represents me arguing against the leftie gloom described elsewhere in this thread. I don't detect any thirst for Corbyn. But the LibDem squeeze seems to be a thing - essentially the number who lend him an anti-Con/anti-Brexit cross through gritted teeth in the privacy of the polling booth)
  • Sean_F said:

    Have we discussed the Mori figs? Surprised that lab only have a 1% lead over the tories in improving public services. More worryingly for then, people don't believe they can pay for improvements.

    I can't see any voting intention numbers for Ipsos Mori.

    However, the favourability ratings are 33/47% for Johnson, 22/60% for Corbyn. That's consistent with Labour making no further progress in polling.
    In fact, the net difference has increased slightly as Corbyn's extra 3 points from the manifesto bounce have faded.

    The Mori figures look incredibly stable. Too stable? Or have we reverted to the previous norm of the campaign making sod all difference to voters' opinions?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401
    kinabalu said:

    camel said:

    Raab is like Patel. He has a terrible resting face, which manifests itself at the start and end of media appearances. They're the only two egregious resting faces that i have noticed.

    The "Patel smirk". She can't help it but it's unfortunate. One imagines it in place as she kicks open the trap door.
    Simper. Its a simper.
  • Latest on Corbyn.

    He is going to hand over Chequers to the homeless

    McDonnell to do the same with no 11

    They are becoming more deranged by the minute

    Imagine attacking somebody for wanting to help people
    The problem is that their understanding of how to help people is on par with that of a virtue-signalling 6th former...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Simper. Its a simper.

    Ah but that's only when she's looking at handsome Israeli soldiers. Or "Boris" of course.
  • kinabalu said:

    Except she doesn't support capital punishment. 🙄

    That's right. She doesn't support capital punishment in the same way that Jeremy Corbyn always watches the Queen's Speech at Christmas.
    She's said for years now that she doesn't support capital punishment . . .

    Try finding anything she's said from the last half a dozen years or so to say otherwise.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    I enjoy your posts - they focus on the betting.
    How many total SNP seats do you reckon?

    Low 40s.

    If pushed for an exact figure: 41.

    (If I’m miles out, in my defence, there are a hell of a lot of marginals.)
    I reckon trying to pick the Scottish seats is the trickiest aspect of this election by miles. Tories could be anywhere from 3 to 16.
    Tories could be anywhere from 4 to 20.
    Would you like a wager they are nowhere near 20
    I don’t think they’ll be anywhere near 20. It would mean them winning seats like Argyll and Bute, Central Ayrshire, East Lothian, Edinburgh North and Leith, Edinburgh South West, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, Lanark and Hamilton East, Linlithgow and East Falkirk, Midlothian, North Ayrshire and Arran or Paisley and North Renfrewshire.

    Those are all profoundly unlikely. But just imagine if:

    - SNP supporters fail to turn out
    - the SLD vote utterly collapses and goes straight to SCon
    - SLab vote halves, with most going straight to SCon
    - The SCons have wonderful differential turnout
    - Yes voters vote Green where there is a Green PPC

    Any of those things are feasible. In a nightmare scenario, all could happen.

    20 is their absolute dream upper limit. I’m not saying that that is what I expect to happen.
    I’ll be happy if they hold their existing numbers even if they swop about a little. 2017 was pretty ordinary for the UK but very good for Scotland. Pretty near peak I would say. They start 1 down with that Aberdeen seat too.
  • ClippP said:

    I really dont understand the need to open the votes before polling day, let anyone give candidates access. What possible benefit is there to organising a fair election?

    It takes a very long time to open the envelopes and check the signature of each individual elector. There are probably thousands of them. And candidates and their reps are allowed to be there precisely to make sure that everything is done properly.
    My postal vote still hasn't arrived. Is this where they find out it was signed with two Xs (the second one is for PhD)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited December 2019

    Latest on Corbyn.

    He is going to hand over Chequers to the homeless

    McDonnell to do the same with no 11

    They are becoming more deranged by the minute

    Imagine attacking somebody for wanting to help people
    It won't "help" anyone as it's not going to happen. In the unlikely event they did form the next government it still wouldn't be able to happen as they don't actually "own" Number Ten, Number Eleven or Chequers.

    These buildings don't "belong" to Corbyn for him to be able to "hand over" to the homeless anymore than he owns your home or mine.

    Corbyn would merely be the current the custodian of these buildings for however long it is until he gets turfed out and the next lot takes over residency...
  • BluerBlue said:

    Latest on Corbyn.

    He is going to hand over Chequers to the homeless

    McDonnell to do the same with no 11

    They are becoming more deranged by the minute

    Imagine attacking somebody for wanting to help people
    The problem is that their understanding of how to help people is on par with that of a virtue-signalling 6th former...
    That's a bit unfair on sixth-formers.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    I think the connection is not necessary and her smirk has been debunked as anything sinister

    Mind you I am not a fan of hers at all

    No, it's probably the least sinister thing about her.

    Who are you a fan of btw? I like David Gauke.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    camel said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why is Dim Dom telling us to "take a look at the postal votes"?

    We are not allowed to do that. If only.

    Raab is like Patel. He has a terrible resting face, which manifests itself at the start and end of media appearances. They're the only two egregious resting faces that i have noticed.
    Get used to the faces. One of them will likely be next leader of the Tory Party.
    Not likely to be a vacancy for many years. Plenty of time for someone else to come through the ranks.
    You think? I'm expecting something to blow up in Bozo's face in the next couple of years that will result in his resignation. One of the holders of the Great Offices of State is a likely successor. And I don't think it will be The Saj.
  • BluerBlue said:

    Latest on Corbyn.

    He is going to hand over Chequers to the homeless

    McDonnell to do the same with no 11

    They are becoming more deranged by the minute

    Imagine attacking somebody for wanting to help people
    The problem is that their understanding of how to help people is on par with that of a virtue-signalling 6th former...
    That's a bit unfair on sixth-formers.
    You're right - I should have said 5th-former. Which in some public schools is the first year...
  • llefllef Posts: 298
    ClippP said:

    I really dont understand the need to open the votes before polling day, let anyone give candidates access. What possible benefit is there to organising a fair election?

    It takes a very long time to open the envelopes and check the signature of each individual elector. There are probably thousands of them. And candidates and their reps are allowed to be there precisely to make sure that everything is done properly.
    what happens if they suspect the signature to be "forged"?
    do they include the vote in the tally?
    do they notify the ploice?

    or is it simply a check that the signature matches the name?
  • DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    I enjoy your posts - they focus on the betting.
    How many total SNP seats do you reckon?

    Low 40s.

    If pushed for an exact figure: 41.

    (If I’m miles out, in my defence, there are a hell of a lot of marginals.)
    I reckon trying to pick the Scottish seats is the trickiest aspect of this election by miles. Tories could be anywhere from 3 to 16.
    Tories could be anywhere from 4 to 20.
    Would you like a wager they are nowhere near 20
    I don’t think they’ll be anywhere near 20. It would mean them winning seats like Argyll and Bute, Central Ayrshire, East Lothian, Edinburgh North and Leith, Edinburgh South West, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, Lanark and Hamilton East, Linlithgow and East Falkirk, Midlothian, North Ayrshire and Arran or Paisley and North Renfrewshire.

    Those are all profoundly unlikely. But just imagine if:

    - SNP supporters fail to turn out
    - the SLD vote utterly collapses and goes straight to SCon
    - SLab vote halves, with most going straight to SCon
    - The SCons have wonderful differential turnout
    - Yes voters vote Green where there is a Green PPC

    Any of those things are feasible. In a nightmare scenario, all could happen.

    20 is their absolute dream upper limit. I’m not saying that that is what I expect to happen.
    I’ll be happy if they hold their existing numbers even if they swop about a little. 2017 was pretty ordinary for the UK but very good for Scotland. Pretty near peak I would say. They start 1 down with that Aberdeen seat too.
    No they don’t. Ross Thomson was sacked after the election was called and before nominations closed. The SCons had an MP in Aberdeen South at dissolution, and they have an official candidate now.
  • camel said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why is Dim Dom telling us to "take a look at the postal votes"?

    We are not allowed to do that. If only.

    Raab is like Patel. He has a terrible resting face, which manifests itself at the start and end of media appearances. They're the only two egregious resting faces that i have noticed.
    Get used to the faces. One of them will likely be next leader of the Tory Party.
    Not likely to be a vacancy for many years. Plenty of time for someone else to come through the ranks.
    You think? I'm expecting something to blow up in Bozo's face in the next couple of years that will result in his resignation. One of the holders of the Great Offices of State is a likely successor. And I don't think it will be The Saj.
    Johnson is like Tony Blair, he's covered in Teflon, no matter what he does nothing sticks to him.

    If he has a healthy majority he will be PM until the next election at least unless he chooses to go sooner. Then it depends upon whether he wins the following election or not, if he doesn't then his successor could be anyone.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Jason said:

    Hopefully with Corbyn and his cabal of terrorist sympathisers on the end of it.

    Not responding to this gory escalation. I clamber back to higher ground.
  • llefllef Posts: 298
  • DavidL said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    I enjoy your posts - they focus on the betting.
    How many total SNP seats do you reckon?

    Low 40s.

    If pushed for an exact figure: 41.

    (If I’m miles out, in my defence, there are a hell of a lot of marginals.)
    I reckon trying to pick the Scottish seats is the trickiest aspect of this election by miles. Tories could be anywhere from 3 to 16.
    Tories could be anywhere from 4 to 20.
    Would you like a wager they are nowhere near 20
    I don’t think they’ll be anywhere near 20. It would mean them winning seats like Argyll and Bute, Central Ayrshire, East Lothian, Edinburgh North and Leith, Edinburgh South West, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, Lanark and Hamilton East, Linlithgow and East Falkirk, Midlothian, North Ayrshire and Arran or Paisley and North Renfrewshire.

    Those are all profoundly unlikely. But just imagine if:

    - SNP supporters fail to turn out
    - the SLD vote utterly collapses and goes straight to SCon
    - SLab vote halves, with most going straight to SCon
    - The SCons have wonderful differential turnout
    - Yes voters vote Green where there is a Green PPC

    Any of those things are feasible. In a nightmare scenario, all could happen.

    20 is their absolute dream upper limit. I’m not saying that that is what I expect to happen.
    I’ll be happy if they hold their existing numbers even if they swop about a little. 2017 was pretty ordinary for the UK but very good for Scotland. Pretty near peak I would say. They start 1 down with that Aberdeen seat too.
    Tories are missing candidates in Aberdeen North and Glasgow Central, due to candidate suspensions, but they would have had no chance in either.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    ClippP said:

    I really dont understand the need to open the votes before polling day, let anyone give candidates access. What possible benefit is there to organising a fair election?

    It takes a very long time to open the envelopes and check the signature of each individual elector. There are probably thousands of them. And candidates and their reps are allowed to be there precisely to make sure that everything is done properly.
    My postal vote still hasn't arrived. Is this where they find out it was signed with two Xs (the second one is for PhD)
    Ours arrived well over a week ago. Hasn't gone back yet. As we're home (we thought we'd be sunning ourselves just outside Bangkok) we're going to take them to the polling place and hand them in.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    ClippP said:

    I really dont understand the need to open the votes before polling day, let anyone give candidates access. What possible benefit is there to organising a fair election?

    It takes a very long time to open the envelopes and check the signature of each individual elector. There are probably thousands of them. And candidates and their reps are allowed to be there precisely to make sure that everything is done properly.
    My postal vote still hasn't arrived. Is this where they find out it was signed with two Xs (the second one is for PhD)
    Ours arrived well over a week ago. Hasn't gone back yet. As we're home (we thought we'd be sunning ourselves just outside Bangkok) we're going to take them to the polling place and hand them in.
    "we thought we'd be sunning ourselves just outside Bangkok"

    As opposed to banging your cock just outside Sonning.


    Sorry. Time I logged off for a while...
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    My God, Bob Willis was one of my favourite sports commentators. Absolutely gutted
  • ClippP said:

    I really dont understand the need to open the votes before polling day, let anyone give candidates access. What possible benefit is there to organising a fair election?

    It takes a very long time to open the envelopes and check the signature of each individual elector. There are probably thousands of them. And candidates and their reps are allowed to be there precisely to make sure that everything is done properly.
    My postal vote still hasn't arrived. Is this where they find out it was signed with two Xs (the second one is for PhD)
    Ours arrived well over a week ago. Hasn't gone back yet. As we're home (we thought we'd be sunning ourselves just outside Bangkok) we're going to take them to the polling place and hand them in.
    I feel sure on my postal voting papers it stated that you were not allowed to use your ballot paper at the polling station in the conventional manner.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    edited December 2019
    llef said:
    Potential improvements to animal welfare is the/a* potential positive from Brexit.

    *delete according to personal preference
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    She's said for years now that she doesn't support capital punishment . . .

    Try finding anything she's said from the last half a dozen years or so to say otherwise.

    I'm not going by what she says. I'm going by what she believes. If you think that her true feelings about CP is "against" then I am going to have to seriously question your people reading skills.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    isam said:

    My God, Bob Willis was one of my favourite sports commentators. Absolutely gutted

    Yes, excellent on the end of day analysis show. Last seen end September? Must have been a short illness.
  • Just noticed that Mims Davies (was MP for Eastleigh is now standing in Mid Sussex.
    From Wikipedia "On 30 October 2019 Davies announced she would be standing down as MP for Eastleigh in order to spend more time with her children.[16]
    However she later announced she was to be on the shortlist for the Mid-Sussex constituency, where Sir Nicholas Soames was retiring. [17] On 9 November 2019, she was selected to stand for the seat."
    Are her kids that bad?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    camel said:

    isam said:

    My God, Bob Willis was one of my favourite sports commentators. Absolutely gutted

    Yes, excellent on the end of day analysis show. Last seen end September? Must have been a short illness.
    I thought that, but the press release says he passed away after a long illness. He wasn't on this series of the show after having an operation, according to Colville
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    edited December 2019

    Just noticed that Mims Davies (was MP for Eastleigh is now standing in Mid Sussex.
    From Wikipedia "On 30 October 2019 Davies announced she would be standing down as MP for Eastleigh in order to spend more time with her children.[16]
    However she later announced she was to be on the shortlist for the Mid-Sussex constituency, where Sir Nicholas Soames was retiring. [17] On 9 November 2019, she was selected to stand for the seat."
    Are her kids that bad?

    No, they just spend most of their time in Mid Sussex, not Eastleigh.

    Edit: on second thoughts, I have no idea what her kids are like.
  • So sad re the great Bob Willis.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited December 2019
    kinabalu said:

    I think the connection is not necessary and her smirk has been debunked as anything sinister

    Mind you I am not a fan of hers at all

    No, it's probably the least sinister thing about her.

    Who are you a fan of btw? I like David Gauke.
    I like Esther McVey ....
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    ClippP said:

    I really dont understand the need to open the votes before polling day, let anyone give candidates access. What possible benefit is there to organising a fair election?

    It takes a very long time to open the envelopes and check the signature of each individual elector. There are probably thousands of them. And candidates and their reps are allowed to be there precisely to make sure that everything is done properly.
    My postal vote still hasn't arrived. Is this where they find out it was signed with two Xs (the second one is for PhD)
    Ours arrived well over a week ago. Hasn't gone back yet. As we're home (we thought we'd be sunning ourselves just outside Bangkok) we're going to take them to the polling place and hand them in.
    "we thought we'd be sunning ourselves just outside Bangkok"

    As opposed to banging your cock just outside Sonning.


    Sorry. Time I logged off for a while...
    Since prostate cancer them days is gorn. Sadly. Although I don't recall ever visiting Sonning.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    isam said:

    camel said:

    isam said:

    My God, Bob Willis was one of my favourite sports commentators. Absolutely gutted

    Yes, excellent on the end of day analysis show. Last seen end September? Must have been a short illness.
    I thought that, but the press release says he passed away after a long illness. He wasn't on this series of the show after having an operation, according to Colville
    Sad loss, simultaneously insightful and deadpan as a pundit.
    Saw him at the back end of his career at Headingley vs W. Indies. Couldn't recreate the magic of three years earlier, despite a chorus of "Go on Bob" from the Western Terrace.
  • It takes a remarkable talent to face two widely distrusted opponents and still drive your polling downwards...

    Is that unfair? Probably not.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    kinabalu said:

    Except she doesn't support capital punishment. 🙄

    That's right. She doesn't support capital punishment in the same way that Jeremy Corbyn always watches the Queen's Speech at Christmas.
    She's said for years now that she doesn't support capital punishment . . .

    Try finding anything she's said from the last half a dozen years or so to say otherwise.
    Worth pointing out that many in the country do support capital punishment. Just saying.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Just noticed that Mims Davies (was MP for Eastleigh is now standing in Mid Sussex.
    From Wikipedia "On 30 October 2019 Davies announced she would be standing down as MP for Eastleigh in order to spend more time with her children.[16]
    However she later announced she was to be on the shortlist for the Mid-Sussex constituency, where Sir Nicholas Soames was retiring. [17] On 9 November 2019, she was selected to stand for the seat."
    Are her kids that bad?

    Eastleigh was a Lib Dem stronghold for many a year (I think the borough council still is). Maybe she didn't fancy her long-term chances there?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    camel said:

    isam said:

    camel said:

    isam said:

    My God, Bob Willis was one of my favourite sports commentators. Absolutely gutted

    Yes, excellent on the end of day analysis show. Last seen end September? Must have been a short illness.
    I thought that, but the press release says he passed away after a long illness. He wasn't on this series of the show after having an operation, according to Colville
    Sad loss, simultaneously insightful and deadpan as a pundit.
    Saw him at the back end of his career at Headingley vs W. Indies. Couldn't recreate the magic of three years earlier, despite a chorus of "Go on Bob" from the Western Terrace.
    Great middle name too!

    His brother is an umpire at amateur level.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    edited December 2019

    Latest on Corbyn.

    He is going to hand over Chequers to the homeless

    McDonnell to do the same with no 11

    They are becoming more deranged by the minute

    Imagine attacking somebody for wanting to help people
    Come on. If McDonnell, was really going to do this, he'd have homeless in one of his two houses, or three boats. It's just ridiculous virtue signalling.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    ClippP said:

    I really dont understand the need to open the votes before polling day, let anyone give candidates access. What possible benefit is there to organising a fair election?

    It takes a very long time to open the envelopes and check the signature of each individual elector. There are probably thousands of them. And candidates and their reps are allowed to be there precisely to make sure that everything is done properly.
    My postal vote still hasn't arrived. Is this where they find out it was signed with two Xs (the second one is for PhD)
    Ours arrived well over a week ago. Hasn't gone back yet. As we're home (we thought we'd be sunning ourselves just outside Bangkok) we're going to take them to the polling place and hand them in.
    I feel sure on my postal voting papers it stated that you were not allowed to use your ballot paper at the polling station in the conventional manner.
    You can't put them in the ballot box (i.e. 'Use them in the conventional manner') but you can take them, completed, to the polling station and they will take them to the count with the others. For people who don't complete theirs in time to post them in.
  • malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    I enjoy your posts - they focus on the betting.
    How many total SNP seats do you reckon?

    Low 40s.

    If pushed for an exact figure: 41.

    (If I’m miles out, in my defence, there are a hell of a lot of marginals.)
    I reckon trying to pick the Scottish seats is the trickiest aspect of this election by miles. Tories could be anywhere from 3 to 16.
    Tories could be anywhere from 4 to 20.
    Would you like a wager they are nowhere near 20
    I don’t think they’ll be anywhere near 20. It would mean them winning seats like Argyll and Bute, Central Ayrshire, East Lothian, Edinburgh North and Leith, Edinburgh South West, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, Lanark and Hamilton East, Linlithgow and East Falkirk, Midlothian, North Ayrshire and Arran or Paisley and North Renfrewshire.

    Those are all profoundly unlikely. But just imagine if:

    - SNP supporters fail to turn out
    - the SLD vote utterly collapses and goes straight to SCon
    - SLab vote halves, with most going straight to SCon
    - The SCons have wonderful differential turnout
    - Yes voters vote Green where there is a Green PPC

    Any of those things are feasible. In a nightmare scenario, all could happen.

    20 is their absolute dream upper limit. I’m not saying that that is what I expect to happen.
    I think James Kanga’ is on record as once saying to Ruth Davidson in a psephological presentation, “one day, you’ll win 20 seats.”

    She said; “no way.”
  • kinabalu said:

    She's said for years now that she doesn't support capital punishment . . .

    Try finding anything she's said from the last half a dozen years or so to say otherwise.

    I'm not going by what she says. I'm going by what she believes. If you think that her true feelings about CP is "against" then I am going to have to seriously question your people reading skills.
    Yes I seriously believe that because of what she has said and done on the matter for many years now.

    A decade ago she spoke in favour of it in limited circumstances, but a decade ago I was in favour of being EU members.
  • camel said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why is Dim Dom telling us to "take a look at the postal votes"?

    We are not allowed to do that. If only.

    Raab is like Patel. He has a terrible resting face, which manifests itself at the start and end of media appearances. They're the only two egregious resting faces that i have noticed.
    Get used to the faces. One of them will likely be next leader of the Tory Party.
    Not likely to be a vacancy for many years. Plenty of time for someone else to come through the ranks.
    You think? I'm expecting something to blow up in Bozo's face in the next couple of years that will result in his resignation. One of the holders of the Great Offices of State is a likely successor. And I don't think it will be The Saj.
    I don't disagree that Boris' Premiership may not last for more than a couple of years, but to succeed him as PM, I've had a small punt on Geoffrey Cox Q.C. at 100/1 with Laddies.
    DYOR.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    It takes a remarkable talent to face two widely distrusted opponents and still drive your polling downwards...

    Is that unfair? Probably not.

    Not really. As the only possibly winner is one of the distrusted opponents most people know they have little choice but to pick the other candidate.

    That's way some people on here are voting Tory and others who have met and dealt with Boris are voting Corbyn.

    Mind you if the SNP hadn't taken Scotland and with it any chance of Corbyn getting a majority I'm really not sure how I would vote.
  • camel said:

    llef said:
    Potential improvements to animal welfare is the/a* potential positive from Brexit.

    *delete according to personal preference
    Assuming no-one signs a trade deal that lowers standards again.
  • saddened said:

    Latest on Corbyn.

    He is going to hand over Chequers to the homeless

    McDonnell to do the same with no 11

    They are becoming more deranged by the minute

    Imagine attacking somebody for wanting to help people
    Come on. If McDonnell, was really going to do this, he'd have homeless in one of his two houses, or three boats. It's just ridiculous virtue signalling.
    We all remember Yvette Cooper promising one of her homes for refugees.
  • Does anyone know if we are expecting any polls tonight?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    isam said:

    My God, Bob Willis was one of my favourite sports commentators. Absolutely gutted

    I liked him a lot as a pundit. That hangdog deadpan pessimism was quite unique.
  • Such a difficult election to read.

    The data shows a decent-ish Tory lead from 6-12% but the favourability ratings and deeper data a bit “a plague on all your houses” with the Tories not really meaningfully ahead on many measures. And I’m not even sure Boris is knocking it out the park on best PM too.

    Then again, Labour just look terrible this time round, and I’m starting to wonder if outside their core demographic they’ll get a thumping.

    I saw a single older Labour activist at Waterloo just now with a baseball cap, an anorak and a small pin-badge - by himself, goggling at his phone.

    His face said it all.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Yes I seriously believe that because of what she has said and done on the matter for many years now.

    A decade ago she spoke in favour of it in limited circumstances, but a decade ago I was in favour of being EU members.

    What do you mean done on the matter?
  • Does anyone know if we are expecting any polls tonight?

    Isn't there a ComRes due? I completed a YouGov yesterday, but that might be for the weekend.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Perhaps this is why you don't see any Tory posters up in the Canterbury constituency - just loads of Labour ones.

    https://twitter.com/anna_firth/status/1202248800200515584
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211

    Such a difficult election to read.

    The data shows a decent-ish Tory lead from 6-12% but the favourability ratings and deeper data a bit “a plague on all your houses” with the Tories not really meaningfully ahead on many measures. And I’m not even sure Boris is knocking it out the park on best PM too.

    Then again, Labour just look terrible this time round, and I’m starting to wonder if outside their core demographic they’ll get a thumping.

    I saw a single older Labour activist at Waterloo just now with a baseball cap, an anorak and a small pin-badge - by himself, goggling at his phone.

    His face said it all.

    So why didn't you have a chat with Jeremy then?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,723
    Are YG updating their MRP today??
  • isam said:

    That gender stuff will bring voters out in their droves.

    What's the story this time around on tuition fees,scrap them or triple them?
  • @isam

    What on Earth is she doing?

    I can’t think of anything more likely to repel soft Tory Remainers.

    That looks absolute core vote to me/ dead cat.

    Maybe it’s a bit of both. Either way, it smacks of desperation.
  • isam said:
    The passport idea pretty much guarantees either no visa, no entry, or straight to jail in many countries around the world. Crazy thinking.
  • JohnO said:

    Such a difficult election to read.

    The data shows a decent-ish Tory lead from 6-12% but the favourability ratings and deeper data a bit “a plague on all your houses” with the Tories not really meaningfully ahead on many measures. And I’m not even sure Boris is knocking it out the park on best PM too.

    Then again, Labour just look terrible this time round, and I’m starting to wonder if outside their core demographic they’ll get a thumping.

    I saw a single older Labour activist at Waterloo just now with a baseball cap, an anorak and a small pin-badge - by himself, goggling at his phone.

    His face said it all.

    So why didn't you have a chat with Jeremy then?
    Lol! Slightly worried it could have been a regular poster on this forum!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Stocky said:

    I like Esther McVey ....

    Oh.
  • llefllef Posts: 298

    Such a difficult election to read.

    The data shows a decent-ish Tory lead from 6-12% but the favourability ratings and deeper data a bit “a plague on all your houses” with the Tories not really meaningfully ahead on many measures. And I’m not even sure Boris is knocking it out the park on best PM too.

    Then again, Labour just look terrible this time round, and I’m starting to wonder if outside their core demographic they’ll get a thumping.

    I saw a single older Labour activist at Waterloo just now with a baseball cap, an anorak and a small pin-badge - by himself, goggling at his phone.

    His face said it all.

    the (betfair) odds on the conservative list of 10 target welsh seats show how on a knife-edge it is

    the cons are (only) favourite in two of them:
    2/5 wrexham
    8/15 vale of clwyd

    evens 2nd fav in 3 more
    Alyn, Bridgend, clwyd S

    11/10 in 3
    delyn, gower & newport w

    5/4 in Cardiff N and 7/4 in the 3 way race in Ynys Mon
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    @isam

    What on Earth is she doing?

    I can’t think of anything more likely to repel soft Tory Remainers.

    That looks absolute core vote to me/ dead cat.

    Maybe it’s a bit of both. Either way, it smacks of desperation.

    The gap was wide open for a party to attract people who see themselves as sensible, middle of the road voters... so the Lib Dems invent a third gender
  • Banterman said:

    That guy is a total wrong'un....
    Just shows how far up their own false lefty view of the UK Labour have become that they use Lavery to front this. He's pure poison and has never explained why he got the huge bung.


    Friends with Justin T as well, I think.
  • camel said:

    llef said:
    Potential improvements to animal welfare is the/a* potential positive from Brexit.

    *delete according to personal preference
    Assuming no-one signs a trade deal that lowers standards again.

    Anyone serious about animal welfare would be advocating the banning of halal & kosher slaughter.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Perhaps this is why you don't see any Tory posters up in the Canterbury constituency - just loads of Labour ones.

    https://twitter.com/anna_firth/status/1202248800200515584

    Yougov MRP has Canterbury as a Labour hold anyway even with a forecast Tory majority of 68
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    isam said:

    @isam

    What on Earth is she doing?

    I can’t think of anything more likely to repel soft Tory Remainers.

    That looks absolute core vote to me/ dead cat.

    Maybe it’s a bit of both. Either way, it smacks of desperation.

    The gap was wide open for a party to attract people who see themselves as sensible, middle of the road voters... so the Lib Dems invent a third gender
    Lol. Indeed. Do these poeple actually go outside the M25 and meet electors?! Or do they stay in SW1 tweeting cat memes to each other? Toe curling.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited December 2019

    Latest on Corbyn.

    He is going to hand over Chequers to the homeless

    McDonnell to do the same with no 11

    They are becoming more deranged by the minute

    He can't, Chequers belongs to the state not the PM, the PM is just a tenant.

    The estate was given by the Lees family to be the country estate of the serving PM as confirmed by the Chequers Estate Act.

    He would have to repeal and amend the Act first
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chequers_Estate_Act_1917
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps this is why you don't see any Tory posters up in the Canterbury constituency - just loads of Labour ones.

    https://twitter.com/anna_firth/status/1202248800200515584

    Yougov MRP has Canterbury as a Labour hold anyway even with a forecast Tory majority of 68
    I make that right. It feels very Labour-y round here these days. Lots of red posters up. I put some dosh on a Labour hold as Bet365 weirdly had the Tories as favourites in the seat at one point. Think it's a Lab hold with an increased majority.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    HYUFD said:

    Latest on Corbyn.

    He is going to hand over Chequers to the homeless

    McDonnell to do the same with no 11

    They are becoming more deranged by the minute

    He can't, Chequers belongs to the state not the PM, the PM is just a tenant
    This also applies to Chevening, the Foreign Secretary's country seat.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Lol! Slightly worried it could have been a regular poster on this forum!

    I don't wear baseball caps.
  • rpjs said:

    Just noticed that Mims Davies (was MP for Eastleigh is now standing in Mid Sussex.
    From Wikipedia "On 30 October 2019 Davies announced she would be standing down as MP for Eastleigh in order to spend more time with her children.[16]
    However she later announced she was to be on the shortlist for the Mid-Sussex constituency, where Sir Nicholas Soames was retiring. [17] On 9 November 2019, she was selected to stand for the seat."
    Are her kids that bad?

    Eastleigh was a Lib Dem stronghold for many a year (I think the borough council still is). Maybe she didn't fancy her long-term chances there?
    Well yes.
    Council is
    Liberal Democrat – 34
    Conservative – 2
    Independent – 3

    So likely to be a chicken run.
  • camel said:

    llef said:
    Potential improvements to animal welfare is the/a* potential positive from Brexit.

    *delete according to personal preference
    Hmm. Is drugging/poisoning the duck really that much better than force feeding? Not sure.

    I still think promoting alternatives has got to be the better way to go. Like calves brains, pan roasted in black butter. Just as rich, succulent and melting; and uses a bit of the animal that would otherwise often go to waste. Delicious.

  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    llef said:

    Such a difficult election to read.

    The data shows a decent-ish Tory lead from 6-12% but the favourability ratings and deeper data a bit “a plague on all your houses” with the Tories not really meaningfully ahead on many measures. And I’m not even sure Boris is knocking it out the park on best PM too.

    Then again, Labour just look terrible this time round, and I’m starting to wonder if outside their core demographic they’ll get a thumping.

    I saw a single older Labour activist at Waterloo just now with a baseball cap, an anorak and a small pin-badge - by himself, goggling at his phone.

    His face said it all.

    the (betfair) odds on the conservative list of 10 target welsh seats show how on a knife-edge it is

    the cons are (only) favourite in two of them:
    2/5 wrexham
    8/15 vale of clwyd

    evens 2nd fav in 3 more
    Alyn, Bridgend, clwyd S

    11/10 in 3
    delyn, gower & newport w

    5/4 in Cardiff N and 7/4 in the 3 way race in Ynys Mon
    hehe cons 6/4 in Ynys Mon. I thought my 5/1 was my silly bet, along with North Norfolk at 3/1 (now 1/2).

  • HYUFD said:

    Perhaps this is why you don't see any Tory posters up in the Canterbury constituency - just loads of Labour ones.

    https://twitter.com/anna_firth/status/1202248800200515584

    Yougov MRP has Canterbury as a Labour hold anyway even with a forecast Tory majority of 68
    What a terrible fate has befallen Canterbury.
  • funkhauserfunkhauser Posts: 325
    edited December 2019
    Banterman said:

    isam said:
    The passport idea pretty much guarantees either no visa, no entry, or straight to jail in many countries around the world. Crazy thinking.
    The Lib Dems must be really regretting not electing Ed Davey as their leader.
    Who can take Swinson seriously?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Animal_pb said:

    camel said:

    llef said:
    Potential improvements to animal welfare is the/a* potential positive from Brexit.

    *delete according to personal preference
    Hmm. Is drugging/poisoning the duck really that much better than force feeding? Not sure.

    I still think promoting alternatives has got to be the better way to go. Like calves brains, pan roasted in black butter. Just as rich, succulent and melting; and uses a bit of the animal that would otherwise often go to waste. Delicious.

    Calves brains sounds absolutely offal.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps this is why you don't see any Tory posters up in the Canterbury constituency - just loads of Labour ones.

    https://twitter.com/anna_firth/status/1202248800200515584

    Yougov MRP has Canterbury as a Labour hold anyway even with a forecast Tory majority of 68
    What a terrible fate has befallen Canterbury.
    It is now full of students
  • Labour bible the New Statesman refuses to back Jeremy Corbyn at the General Election.
  • Banterman said:

    isam said:
    The passport idea pretty much guarantees either no visa, no entry, or straight to jail in many countries around the world. Crazy thinking.
    The Lib Dems must be really regretting not electing Ed Davey as their leader.
    Who can take Swinson seriously?
    Anybody who thinks Johnson is a liar and a charlatan and Corbyn is a possible AS.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Present but not involved
    Pulpstar
    Budget Remaining: £1
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Not sure why the Lib Dems have made the campaign so much about Jo Swinson .

    A very bizarre decision . A bit like Mays Conservatives which imploded .
  • camel said:

    llef said:

    Such a difficult election to read.

    The data shows a decent-ish Tory lead from 6-12% but the favourability ratings and deeper data a bit “a plague on all your houses” with the Tories not really meaningfully ahead on many measures. And I’m not even sure Boris is knocking it out the park on best PM too.

    Then again, Labour just look terrible this time round, and I’m starting to wonder if outside their core demographic they’ll get a thumping.

    I saw a single older Labour activist at Waterloo just now with a baseball cap, an anorak and a small pin-badge - by himself, goggling at his phone.

    His face said it all.

    the (betfair) odds on the conservative list of 10 target welsh seats show how on a knife-edge it is

    the cons are (only) favourite in two of them:
    2/5 wrexham
    8/15 vale of clwyd

    evens 2nd fav in 3 more
    Alyn, Bridgend, clwyd S

    11/10 in 3
    delyn, gower & newport w

    5/4 in Cardiff N and 7/4 in the 3 way race in Ynys Mon
    hehe cons 6/4 in Ynys Mon. I thought my 5/1 was my silly bet, along with North Norfolk at 3/1 (now 1/2).

    I think I backed Ynys Mon at 4/1.

    I don’t expect to collect.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Banterman said:

    isam said:
    The passport idea pretty much guarantees either no visa, no entry, or straight to jail in many countries around the world. Crazy thinking.
    New Zealand has been offering it as an option since 2012 and I don't recall hearing about transgendered Kiwis getting banged up abroad for it. I suspect the people that would opt for it are smart enough to know which countries to avoid.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    HYUFD said:

    Latest on Corbyn.

    He is going to hand over Chequers to the homeless

    McDonnell to do the same with no 11

    They are becoming more deranged by the minute

    He can't, Chequers belongs to the state not the PM, the PM is just a tenant.

    The estate was given by the Lees family to be the country estate of the serving PM as confirmed by the Chequers Estate Act.

    He would have to repeal and amend the Act first
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chequers_Estate_Act_1917
    I think you'll find that governments do usually have the power to amend Acts of parliament. (The present one excepted, of course.)
  • Pulpstar said:

    Present but not involved
    Pulpstar
    Budget Remaining: £1


    Well, you did spunk £500 on Leicester East!
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    All the cool kids are hanging out on the NEW THREAD
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Are YG updating their MRP today??

    Someone said earlier not, based on a Tweet.

    I think updated figures from the MRP are what we really need.
  • kinabalu said:

    I think the connection is not necessary and her smirk has been debunked as anything sinister

    Mind you I am not a fan of hers at all

    No, it's probably the least sinister thing about her.

    Who are you a fan of btw? I like David Gauke.
    Not a fan of any of the political class. I support Boris only because he has the best chance of beating Corbyn
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,211
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps this is why you don't see any Tory posters up in the Canterbury constituency - just loads of Labour ones.

    https://twitter.com/anna_firth/status/1202248800200515584

    Yougov MRP has Canterbury as a Labour hold anyway even with a forecast Tory majority of 68
    What a terrible fate has befallen Canterbury.
    It is now full of students
    Famous last words and I haven't had a bet, but in 2015 the Tories had a 9,800 majority and the swing in 2017 against Julian Brazer was a huge 9.3% resulting in a Labour margin of 187. Has the constituency's essential demographic changed so massively, even allowing for the impact of the student vote two years ago?

    Notwithstanding the omniscience of the YouGov MRP, should the Tories be 9% ahead (or even 7%) nationally next Thursday, I cannot fathom why Canterbury should not be an easy Con Gain.

  • nico67 said:

    Not sure why the Lib Dems have made the campaign so much about Jo Swinson .

    A very bizarre decision . A bit like Mays Conservatives which imploded .

    Who else, what else do they have ... oh wait ... of course, Mike Smithson!
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Latest on Corbyn.

    He is going to hand over Chequers to the homeless

    McDonnell to do the same with no 11

    They are becoming more deranged by the minute

    Might be a pleasant and inspiring gesture. After all, the only thing of significance to come out of Chequers in recent times was one of Theresa's doomed Brexit plans, which friend Boris was totally in favour of until he was totally against it.
    It’s probably a blinder by Corbyn, isn’t it.
  • kinabalu said:

    Yes I seriously believe that because of what she has said and done on the matter for many years now.

    A decade ago she spoke in favour of it in limited circumstances, but a decade ago I was in favour of being EU members.

    What do you mean done on the matter?
    She's been Home Secretary since July and has done precisely nothing to bring back the death penalty and in the manifesto there is nothing to suggest the death penalty will come back. Seems to me she is doing nothing on the matter - which means no death penalty.

    If she were seeking to bring it back she couldn't do that overnight she would need to be doing things to make it possible and she isn't. It's a non-issue.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    edited December 2019

    camel said:

    kinabalu said:

    Why is Dim Dom telling us to "take a look at the postal votes"?

    We are not allowed to do that. If only.

    Raab is like Patel. He has a terrible resting face, which manifests itself at the start and end of media appearances. They're the only two egregious resting faces that i have noticed.
    Get used to the faces. One of them will likely be next leader of the Tory Party.
    Not likely to be a vacancy for many years. Plenty of time for someone else to come through the ranks.
    You think? I'm expecting something to blow up in Bozo's face in the next couple of years that will result in his resignation. One of the holders of the Great Offices of State is a likely successor. And I don't think it will be The Saj.
    Johnson is like Tony Blair, he's covered in Teflon, no matter what he does nothing sticks to him.

    If he has a healthy majority he will be PM until the next election at least unless he chooses to go sooner. Then it depends upon whether he wins the following election or not, if he doesn't then his successor could be anyone.
    In the early years Blair was genuinely popular and liked. Johnson isn't. A lot of people voting for him know he's not fit to be PM but he has the fantastic fortune to be up against Corbyn in a system that provides only 2 choices.

    By this time next year his polling will be on the floor, Corbyn will be gone and he'll be fumbling around try to get a trade deal or breaking his promise about extending the transition period as a recession looms. Next Thursday will be be peak Bozo, it's down hill all the way after that. He can run away from an interview with AN but he can't run away from the problems he faces after next week.

    With Bozo as PM, Raab as FS and Patel as HS what could possibly go wrong!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    JohnO said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Perhaps this is why you don't see any Tory posters up in the Canterbury constituency - just loads of Labour ones.

    https://twitter.com/anna_firth/status/1202248800200515584

    Yougov MRP has Canterbury as a Labour hold anyway even with a forecast Tory majority of 68
    What a terrible fate has befallen Canterbury.
    It is now full of students
    Famous last words and I haven't had a bet, but in 2015 the Tories had a 9,800 majority and the swing in 2017 against Julian Brazer was a huge 9.3% resulting in a Labour margin of 187. Has the constituency's essential demographic changed so massively, even allowing for the impact of the student vote two years ago?

    Notwithstanding the omniscience of the YouGov MRP, should the Tories be 9% ahead (or even 7%) nationally next Thursday, I cannot fathom why Canterbury should not be an easy Con Gain.

    It voted Remain and the student vote, it is Leave seats where the swing to the Tories will be clear
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    camel said:

    llef said:
    Potential improvements to animal welfare is the/a* potential positive from Brexit.

    *delete according to personal preference
    Assuming no-one signs a trade deal that lowers standards again.

    Anyone serious about animal welfare would be advocating the banning of halal & kosher slaughter.
    In a country in which you can boil lobsters alive, and call it a delicacy when you're done? Really?

    To say nothing of dogs bred specifically for Cruft's, some of whom are inbred to the point that they struggle with breathing.

    Also note that we were in the EU for three decades and no-one seemed all that concerned about Spanish and Portuguese bullfighting during that time.

    Very selective, people's ideas about what does and does not constitute animal cruelty...
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Sean_F said:


    I can't see any voting intention numbers for Ipsos Mori.

    However, the favourability ratings are 33/47% for Johnson, 22/60% for Corbyn. That's consistent with Labour making no further progress in polling.

    That gap is consistent with about a 9% lead.


  • Endillion said:

    camel said:

    llef said:
    Potential improvements to animal welfare is the/a* potential positive from Brexit.

    *delete according to personal preference
    Assuming no-one signs a trade deal that lowers standards again.

    Anyone serious about animal welfare would be advocating the banning of halal & kosher slaughter.
    In a country in which you can boil lobsters alive, and call it a delicacy when you're done? Really?

    To say nothing of dogs bred specifically for Cruft's, some of whom are inbred to the point that they struggle with breathing.

    Also note that we were in the EU for three decades and no-one seemed all that concerned about Spanish and Portuguese bullfighting during that time.

    Very selective, people's ideas about what does and does not constitute animal cruelty...
    An atrocious bout of whataboutism there. Just because those things are wrong - and bear in mind some of us have long campaigned against most of them as well - is no excuse for allowing other evil practices.
  • JohnO said:

    Such a difficult election to read.

    The data shows a decent-ish Tory lead from 6-12% but the favourability ratings and deeper data a bit “a plague on all your houses” with the Tories not really meaningfully ahead on many measures. And I’m not even sure Boris is knocking it out the park on best PM too.

    Then again, Labour just look terrible this time round, and I’m starting to wonder if outside their core demographic they’ll get a thumping.

    I saw a single older Labour activist at Waterloo just now with a baseball cap, an anorak and a small pin-badge - by himself, goggling at his phone.

    His face said it all.

    So why didn't you have a chat with Jeremy then?
    Lol! Slightly worried it could have been a regular poster on this forum!
    "Psssst ... it's me, Casino Royale. The password is OGH. Don't say anything, just nod if you understand..." :lol:
This discussion has been closed.