Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A new betting strategy worth pursuing?

15678911»

Comments

  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    Cyclefree said:

    Got to love the corrupt press campaigning for Boris Johnson.
    - Sophie Ridge (laugh and giggle) - Tory
    - Laura Kuennsburg BBC Chief Political Correspondent - Tory Unionist
    - Tom Bradby ITV - Tory
    - Nick Ferrari LBC - Tory
    - Nick Robinson (debate moderator BBC) Tory
    - Iain Dale LBC Tory
    - Chuck in the billionaire tax avoiding press barons hitmen - daily mail, sun , times, Sunday times, mail on Sunday, daily express, su day express, the star, Sunday star telegraph, Sunday telegraph and this is why we have Boris Johnson

    Simple question I want answer to
    How many children do you have Boris?

    Why? What is its political relevance? It seems to me no more relevant than does the fact that Corbyn is onto his third marriage.
    Its important because Johnson called single mothers feckless and illegitimate. If Boris Johnson is having children with women and making a woman raise his child due to the complicated circumstances then we have a right to know.
    Two points:-

    1. Johnson the journalist wrote that in a column. Has Johnson the politician said the same thing?

    2. You are assuming that the women in question have no agency. It is not necessarily the case that he “made” them do anything. They may have made their own decisions themselves about what to do. Having an affair with a married man is fraught with obvious risk and, unless you are forced into it (not an allegation which has ever been made) a woman doing so - especially if no contraception is used - has to bear 50% of the responsibility for what follows.

    And, finally, they and the children are entitled to privacy.

    Boris’s suitability or otherwise to be PM should be decided on political matters. It’s not as if there isn’t plenty to weigh in the balance.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    nichomar said:

    You turn your back on children in poverty, homelessness, workers with zero rights, foreign wars, bank bailouts, privatisation of services to increase profits of the few.

    Tel your workers tomorrow who you really are and you support boris Johnson hate speech.
    But corbyn is the best enabler for a Tory government, get rid of him and nationalization’s and stop trying to give power back to corrupt trade unions then people may take you seriously and don’t forget to clean out the antisemites then you might, just start to be electable. This is from an almost life long anti Tory who has spent 25 years on the doorsteps fighting them in the past.

    The political class across every party is full of corrupt cronies in politics to fuel their own bellies and corrupt media and special interest groups.

    Every labour potential pm has to go through the same shit from the Tory press. Wilson was a spy miliband was a Marxist. Its a fucking sham by corporate neo liberals to smearto Avoid talking about issues.

    Poverty..no I want to talk about anti Semitism.
    Homelessness..no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Tax avoidance..no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Privatisation.. No I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Bank bailouts... No I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Foreign wars...no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Education...no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Prisons..no I want to talk about anti Semitism
    Healthcare..no I want to talk about antisemitism
    Housing...no I want to talk about antisemitism

    Vote for what you value in society not what your against. If your voting Tory because you don't like someone shame on you. Look at your soul..your ticking a box for enables of child poverty, homelessness, privatisation for services to be profited for the few. Vote for what you believe not against.

    Gutter politics for neo liberals that dnomt want any political debate or exposure to their failure to make Britain a better place. Westminster and their media cronies across every party have failed us

    I was just pointing out how you could win an election
  • Options
    melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    matt said:

    melcf said:

    When Boris wins on Friday morning...green light for all Tory voters to call Muslims "letterboxes" gaymen "bumboys" single mothers "illegitimate"

    The British people have spoken..if Boris Johnson can say it and be prime minister why can't you as a Tory voter say it to your work colleagues?
    The daily mail is the biggest selling newspaper in the UK and they use racist, homophobic language everyday and reflect britain. The daily mail reflects British views and if the daily mail says it...why can't you??

    As Tory voters, you have the right to end the political correctness crusade and can express your views however you like. If you are questioned remind your PC friends..Boris Johnson is prime minister if he can say it why cant I?

    Boris ain't gonna win. Even if he gets a slim majority, his own Tories will eventually push him under his 350 million £ bus and then reverse too and fro, till they 'Get Boris Done'
    His route to the PMs chair was filled with deceit, skullduggery and backstabbing friends. His exit will be in a similar fashion. He could have waited 5 years and been leader, in a honourable fashion. However, some have to lie and manipulate, they are just slaves of in born habits and history.
    You write like English is a second language. To Russian.
    Kindly be more specific. You are implying something that you're leader is apt at. What next? Call me a letter box, with a watermeleon smile?
  • Options
    I'm not here to sway voters.

    I'm here to highlight that neo liberal voters turn away to child poverty, homelessness.

    You vote for boris Johnson who calls Muslims "letterboxes" single mothers "feckless, illegitimate" gay men "bumboys".I challenge every Tory voter to go to work and display these values. If its OK for Boris to say it Why can't you???
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    malcolmg said:

    saddened said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
    How fat are you?
    Not very , far from skinny but not obese either. Just like good food and a nice refreshment. My organic roast chicken today was £14 on its own, assorted vegetables £4-5 pounds , roast potato's , gravy , trimmings a small amount. so it is gone and no starter or dessert and no nice wine to wash it down. To be fair as only two of us the chicken will do more than one meal.
    14 quid for a chicken! I`d want it to go on a date with me for that.
  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934

    Cyclefree said:

    Got to love the corrupt press campaigning for Boris Johnson.
    - Sophie Ridge (laugh and giggle) - Tory
    - Laura Kuennsburg BBC Chief Political Correspondent - Tory Unionist
    - Tom Bradby ITV - Tory
    - Nick Ferrari LBC - Tory
    - Nick Robinson (debate moderator BBC) Tory
    - Iain Dale LBC Tory
    - Chuck in the billionaire tax avoiding press barons hitmen - daily mail, sun , times, Sunday times, mail on Sunday, daily express, su day express, the star, Sunday star telegraph, Sunday telegraph and this is why we have Boris Johnson

    Simple question I want answer to
    How many children do you have Boris?

    Why? What is its political relevance? It seems to me no more relevant than does the fact that Corbyn is onto his third marriage.
    Its important because Johnson called single mothers feckless and illegitimate. If Boris Johnson is having children with women and making a woman raise his child due to the complicated circumstances then we have a right to know.

    I agree with the British press that there was no reason to report that [SNIP] With Johnson its different, he has used words to describe single mothers and we have a right to know if he has more children which byb all accounts he does but doesn't want to talk about it because embarrassing to his reputation.
    "...."?! Are you sure??

    Seems unlikely to me - but maybe I take the idea of marriage being about trust and commitment more seriously than the royals do?
    Be careful about repeating libel
    Fair point - although I did question it. For the avoidance of doubt I do not believe it.
    Coolio, would hate a trusted poster get in trouble for something an astroturfer posted!
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    OK I have finished my trawl of Twitter under the words "doorstep" and "Corbyn".

    Clearly, Corbyn is a cup of cold sick to a lot of voters, but a further discovery is this: the really bad reports about the reaction to him only properly kick in around November 20th. That's partly because there was less canvassing before then, obviously, but I also wonder if the aversion to Corbyn has worsened and firmed as he's been exposed on TV.

    Or maybe it is a very successful Tory Facebook campaign?
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Here is a sobering thought.

    Only one leader of the Labour Party elected since the first broadcast of Dr Who has won an overall majority at a general election.

    Even if I take the criteria back to the invasion of Poland, that only increases the number to two. (Admittedly, both won three overall majorities.)

    Labour are not very good at winning elections. Perhaps they should,pause and ask themselves why. It isn’t as though the Tories have been models of ability, integrity and good governance in that time.
  • Options
    If Boris Johnson can be prime minister with 4\10 people voting for him... No workplace in the country will fire you if you call a gay man a bumboy. A Muslim - a letterbox. A single mother - feckless or illegitimate.

    On what grounds would an employer fire you if Boris can be prime minister????
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718

    I think we all know what 'neo liberals' is code for

    Is it an anagram?

    rebellions?
  • Options
    camelcamel Posts: 815
    Byronic said:
    The 2005 approach, when fighting an election with an unpopular leader, was Vote Blair get Brown. Maybe that would work ag.........ah, thinking about it, maybe not.
  • Options

    If Boris Johnson can be prime minister with 4\10 people voting for him... No workplace in the country will fire you if you call a gay man a bumboy. A Muslim - a letterbox. A single mother - feckless or illegitimate.

    On what grounds would an employer fire you if Boris can be prime minister????

    I just dont get it....what is the point? who are you imagining you are convincing?
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    melcf said:

    matt said:

    melcf said:

    When Boris wins on Friday morning...green light for all Tory voters to call Muslims "letterboxes" gaymen "bumboys" single mothers "illegitimate"

    The British people have spoken..if Boris Johnson can say it and be prime minister why can't you as a Tory voter say it to your work colleagues?
    The daily mail is the biggest selling newspaper in the UK and they use racist, homophobic language everyday and reflect britain. The daily mail reflects British views and if the daily mail says it...why can't you??

    As Tory voters, you have the right to end the political correctness crusade and can express your views however you like. If you are questioned remind your PC friends..Boris Johnson is prime minister if he can say it why cant I?

    Boris ain't gonna win. Even if he gets a slim majority, his own Tories will eventually push him under his 350 million £ bus and then reverse too and fro, till they 'Get Boris Done'
    His route to the PMs chair was filled with deceit, skullduggery and backstabbing friends. His exit will be in a similar fashion. He could have waited 5 years and been leader, in a honourable fashion. However, some have to lie and manipulate, they are just slaves of in born habits and history.
    You write like English is a second language. To Russian.
    Kindly be more specific. You are implying something that you're leader is apt at. What next? Call me a letter box, with a watermeleon smile?
    "apt at", "watermeleon"...

    They are implying that English is your second language and my guess is they are right.

    That said, it means nothing. You are welcome to post what you like and everyone else is free to ignore or engage, as they see fit. A bit of variety in your comments might persuade more people to chat with you....

  • Options
    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    Stocky said:

    malcolmg said:

    saddened said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
    How fat are you?
    Not very , far from skinny but not obese either. Just like good food and a nice refreshment. My organic roast chicken today was £14 on its own, assorted vegetables £4-5 pounds , roast potato's , gravy , trimmings a small amount. so it is gone and no starter or dessert and no nice wine to wash it down. To be fair as only two of us the chicken will do more than one meal.
    14 quid for a chicken! I`d want it to go on a date with me for that.
    It's a fiver for veg thats got me reeling, that's a weeks worth, surely?!
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,668
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    saddened said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
    How fat are you?
    Not very , far from skinny but not obese either. Just like good food and a nice refreshment. My organic roast chicken today was £14 on its own, assorted vegetables £4-5 pounds , roast potato's , gravy , trimmings a small amount. so it is gone and no starter or dessert and no nice wine to wash it down. To be fair as only two of us the chicken will do more than one meal.
    Ah well it's a day's food but for two. You could get by on UC provided you only ate one meal a day, wear no clothes, require no heating or electricity (so that's raw chicken) and can walk to the shops. :smile:
    Would be a bit of a shock to the public having to see me shopping in the buff.
    That would be a turnip for the books!
  • Options
    Catching up on this thread, not sure which is the more unreal, MalcolmG's continued bile and invective directed at any non-SNP fanatics which he thinks is "banter" or the parallel universe some of our ultra-left wing PBers seem to be occupying. Tories comfortably ahead in the polls, Twitter awash with Labour canvassers predicting utter doom and gloom and the PB lefties are talking as if Corbyn is walking into Downing Street on Friday. Next we will be getting new letters from a certain gentleman explaining how Jo becomes PM on Friday!
  • Options

    Long-time lurker and first time poster here. Having spent my whole life in Grimsby I've never seen it mentioned so many times during an election campaign - usually it's one of those seats that gets forgotten about in the rush - but it's never been a VERY safe Labour seat (although they've held it since 1945) and I can't see them holding it this time; a combination of being a very pro-Brexit area and a general mistrust and distaste for Jeremy Corbyn.

    A previous comment about Melanie Onn being back in the lead is, I'm afraid, pie in the sky; I wonder what evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) the commenter had to back that up?

    Love the cut and thrust on the site though - long may it continue!

    Now there a few questions that you are required to answer before you are allowed to continue posting....

    Thoughts on...Radiohead live, pineapple on pzza and of course Die Hard is it the best Christmas Movie ever.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,981
    edited December 2019

    Long-time lurker and first time poster here. Having spent my whole life in Grimsby I've never seen it mentioned so many times during an election campaign - usually it's one of those seats that gets forgotten about in the rush - but it's never been a VERY safe Labour seat (although they've held it since 1945) and I can't see them holding it this time; a combination of being a very pro-Brexit area and a general mistrust and distaste for Jeremy Corbyn.

    A previous comment about Melanie Onn being back in the lead is, I'm afraid, pie in the sky; I wonder what evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) the commenter had to back that up?

    Love the cut and thrust on the site though - long may it continue!

    Welcome to PB and thanks for your local insight. Keep posting!
    The anecdotal reply and the initial post confirms why I think this election is impossible to call - Labour could retain it's vote and sneak enough votes to keep this close or it could have completely collapsed across the North. We won't know until the exit poll but I suspect it will be obvious once the first results are out.
  • Options
    Betfair Tory Majority has been drifting all day.
  • Options

    NEW THREAD

  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225

    Nan and grandad x2 looking down and nodding, even if nan on mums side was convinced we were descended from royalty somewhere down the line

    Everyone has a Nan who thinks that.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    edited December 2019
    In response to @MissScarlett:-

    Can I suggest you read the Anthony Julius open letter to Sir Richard Evans in the New Statesman. To quote (from memory):

    “A party that cannot be trusted on anti-semitism cannot be trusted on anything.”

    Please accept that plenty of voters who are not voting Labour (not voting Tory either) like me - in part because of the anti-semitism issue - care very much about the other issues but think that Labour is unable to deal with them.

    After all, if a passionate-all-his-life-anti-racist like Corbyn cannot deal with anti-semitism within Labour despite having had 4 years to do so, how the hell is he going to be competent enough to do all the other things he is promising?
  • Options
    Please all Tory voters.

    Don't play the hardma hiding behind your keyboard that your a closet Tory. Let your workers, friends,family, neighobuird know you are the supporter and voter that made Boris Johnson prime minister. Display his values call your gay work colleagues a bumboy. Call your Muslim colleague a letterbox. Call your single mother feckless and her child illegitimate.

    Be a proud Tory and tell your workers so they know who you really are
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    Please all Tory voters.

    Don't play the hardma hiding behind your keyboard that your a closet Tory. Let your workers, friends,family, neighobuird know you are the supporter and voter that made Boris Johnson prime minister. Display his values call your gay work colleagues a bumboy. Call your Muslim colleague a letterbox. Call your single mother feckless and her child illegitimate.

    Be a proud Tory and tell your workers so they know who you really are

    God you are tedious. Are you like this in real life?
  • Options
    ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    This is really quite striking.

    At first I just thought it was a bit of political fun, but watch it til the end, and the very sincere remarks from Jews who are genuinely scared of Corbyn, and think they might have to emigrate if he wins.

    They are not joking.

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203612512366866434?s=20

    We CANNOT allow Corbyn to win. It would be a tragedy for this country.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Please all Tory voters.

    Don't play the hardma hiding behind your keyboard that your a closet Tory. Let your workers, friends,family, neighobuird know you are the supporter and voter that made Boris Johnson prime minister. Display his values call your gay work colleagues a bumboy. Call your Muslim colleague a letterbox. Call your single mother feckless and her child illegitimate.

    Be a proud Tory and tell your workers so they know who you really are

    Pillock.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079

    Please all Tory voters.

    Don't play the hardma hiding behind your keyboard that your a closet Tory. Let your workers, friends,family, neighobuird know you are the supporter and voter that made Boris Johnson prime minister. Display his values call your gay work colleagues a bumboy. Call your Muslim colleague a letterbox. Call your single mother feckless and her child illegitimate.

    Be a proud Tory and tell your workers so they know who you really are

    Remember though that none of that is remotely relevant ‘cos Corbyn.
  • Options
    Thanks for the welcome - most appreciated! I'm not a member or activist of any party, never canvassed or been involved in any political movements - all I can bring is my conversations with a variety of friends, relatives, work colleagures, etc.; and the general opinion is that they just don't like Jeremy Corbyn. Even those that have always voted Labour are either voting Conservative or not voting at all - (there's always been very little in the way of a Lib Dem surge in Northern Lincolnshire due to the relative lack of wealth in the area).
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    Charles said:

    My mum was a teacher, my dad left school at 16 and went to work in the family shop.

    What does that make me?

    That sounds lower middle.

    Draft finding only though - more data needed.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    Thanks for the welcome - most appreciated! I'm not a member or activist of any party, never canvassed or been involved in any political movements - all I can bring is my conversations with a variety of friends, relatives, work colleagures, etc.; and the general opinion is that they just don't like Jeremy Corbyn. Even those that have always voted Labour are either voting Conservative or not voting at all - (there's always been very little in the way of a Lib Dem surge in Northern Lincolnshire due to the relative lack of wealth in the area).

    Welcome!
  • Options

    I'm not here to sway voters.

    I'm here to highlight that neo liberal voters turn away to child poverty, homelessness.

    You vote for boris Johnson who calls Muslims "letterboxes" single mothers "feckless, illegitimate" gay men "bumboys".I challenge every Tory voter to go to work and display these values. If its OK for Boris to say it Why can't you???

    Nah. You are a troll. Turned up just before the election to make idiotic statements and stir things up a bit and then as soon as the election is over you are gone. We see it on here at every election. Usually it is left wingers, occasionally rightwingers, but all with the same idiotic radical view of things which sounds like it is straight out of a playbook. It is as pointless as it is obvious.

    We have proper left wing supporters on here. Ones that stay the course month in month out through good and bad. They are here for many reasons but one is a genuine attempt to get their point of view across and hope to change people's minds. They do it through reasoned argument not stupid accusations and blatant trolling.

    If you were serious you could learn a lot from them. But you won't because that is not why you are here.
  • Options
    ukelectukelect Posts: 106
    edited December 2019
    Hopefully this will work...

    Here's the latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    Curse of the new thread, @ukelect, although the image did load!
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,781
    Charles said:

    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    How do you know?

    With class, apart from obvious cases, we are more in the realms of opinion. However, one can attempt something a little more robust -

    Grandparents occupation and finances.
    Parents education, occupation and finances.
    Own education, occupation and finances.

    Score each of the above 1/2/3 and then weight 1/2/3 to give most weight to the most recent.

    Top score = 18. That's a poshboy (girl).
    Bottom score = 6. That's 24 carat oik.

    Rayner is 11.

    And if you're interested, I am 12.

    You're a 9.

    I sense.
    My mum was a teacher, my dad left school at 16 and went to work in the family shop.

    What does that make me?
    An extraordinarily well connected former/present Goldman Sachs employee descended from (amongst others) landlords in 19th century Ireland, who has a home in at least two continents and seeks to prosecute the interests of his class and thus continue the tradition set by his ancestors.

    And possibly a vampire, although the latter may just be my headcanon.
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    matt said:

    melcf said:

    When Boris wins on Friday morning...green light for all Tory voters to call Muslims "letterboxes" gaymen "bumboys" single mothers "illegitimate"

    The British people have spoken..if Boris Johnson can say it and be prime minister why can't you as a Tory voter say it to your work colleagues?
    The daily mail is the biggest selling newspaper in the UK and they use racist, homophobic language everyday and reflect britain. The daily mail reflects British views and if the daily mail says it...why can't you??

    As Tory voters, you have the right to end the political correctness crusade and can express your views however you like. If you are questioned remind your PC friends..Boris Johnson is prime minister if he can say it why cant I?

    Boris ain't gonna win. Even if he gets a slim majority, his own Tories will eventually push him under his 350 million £ bus and then reverse too and fro, till they 'Get Boris Done'
    His route to the PMs chair was filled with deceit, skullduggery and backstabbing friends. His exit will be in a similar fashion. He could have waited 5 years and been leader, in a honourable fashion. However, some have to lie and manipulate, they are just slaves of in born habits and history.
    You write like English is a second language. To Russian.
    He's an obvious Russian bot.
  • Options
    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    Please all Tory voters.

    Don't play the hardma hiding behind your keyboard that your a closet Tory. Let your workers, friends,family, neighobuird know you are the supporter and voter that made Boris Johnson prime minister. Display his values call your gay work colleagues a bumboy. Call your Muslim colleague a letterbox. Call your single mother feckless and her child illegitimate.

    Be a proud Tory and tell your workers so they know who you really are

    Pillock.
    Pidcock?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    New thread :)
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    ukelect said:

    The latest UK-Elect forecast is for a Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17

    Forecast here: UK-Elect Forecast December 8th 2019

    Details as CSV file here: UK-Elect Forecast Details December 8th 2019

    The inclusion of additional recent Scottish, English regional, and local opinion poll data in this forecast results in a noticeable increase in the size of the forecast Conservative majority.

    Tories only 3 seats shy of my premonition.
    Conservatives win Winchester by 4 votes!
    A hold is a hold.
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    edited December 2019

    Long-time lurker and first time poster here. Having spent my whole life in Grimsby I've never seen it mentioned so many times during an election campaign - usually it's one of those seats that gets forgotten about in the rush - but it's never been a VERY safe Labour seat (although they've held it since 1945) and I can't see them holding it this time; a combination of being a very pro-Brexit area and a general mistrust and distaste for Jeremy Corbyn.

    A previous comment about Melanie Onn being back in the lead is, I'm afraid, pie in the sky; I wonder what evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) the commenter had to back that up?

    Love the cut and thrust on the site though - long may it continue!

    I suspect the other poster is not even a British resident.

    Just goes to show you can know a language fluently but that is no substitute for learning cultural cues.
  • Options
    ukelectukelect Posts: 106
    RobD said:

    Curse of the new thread, @ukelect, although the image did load!

    Thanks for letting me know!
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    ukelect said:

    RobD said:

    Curse of the new thread, @ukelect, although the image did load!

    Thanks for letting me know!
    Is yours assuming a uniform national swing, or is there additional knobs and levers you can turn?
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    melcf said:

    matt said:

    melcf said:

    When Boris wins on Friday morning...green light for all Tory voters to call Muslims "letterboxes" gaymen "bumboys" single mothers "illegitimate"

    The British people have spoken..if Boris Johnson can say it and be prime minister why can't you as a Tory voter say it to your work colleagues?
    The daily mail is the biggest selling newspaper in the UK and they use racist, homophobic language everyday and reflect britain. The daily mail reflects British views and if the daily mail says it...why can't you??

    As Tory voters, you have the right to end the political correctness crusade and can express your views however you like. If you are questioned remind your PC friends..Boris Johnson is prime minister if he can say it why cant I?

    Boris ain't gonna win. Even if he gets a slim majority, his own Tories will eventually push him under his 350 million £ bus and then reverse too and fro, till they 'Get Boris Done'
    His route to the PMs chair was filled with deceit, skullduggery and backstabbing friends. His exit will be in a similar fashion. He could have waited 5 years and been leader, in a honourable fashion. However, some have to lie and manipulate, they are just slaves of in born habits and history.
    You write like English is a second language. To Russian.
    Kindly be more specific. You are implying something that you're leader is apt at. What next? Call me a letter box, with a watermeleon smile?
    Oh god. Even that short paragraph was hard to read for people who grew up in Britain.
  • Options
    melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    Byronic said:

    melcf said:

    matt said:

    melcf said:

    When Boris wins on Friday morning...green light for all Tory voters to call Muslims "letterboxes" gaymen "bumboys" single mothers "illegitimate"

    The British people have spoken..if Boris Johnson can say it and be prime minister why can't you as a Tory voter say it to your work colleagues?
    The daily mail is the biggest selling newspaper in the UK and they use racist, homophobic language everyday and reflect britain. The daily mail reflects British views and if the daily mail says it...why can't you??

    As Tory voters, you have the right to end the political correctness crusade and can express your views however you like. If you are questioned remind your PC friends..Boris Johnson is prime minister if he can say it why cant I?

    Boris ain't gonna win. Even if he gets a slim majority, his own Tories will eventually push him under his 350 million £ bus and then reverse too and fro, till they 'Get Boris Done'
    His route to the PMs chair was filled with deceit, skullduggery and backstabbing friends. His exit will be in a similar fashion. He could have waited 5 years and been leader, in a honourable fashion. However, some have to lie and manipulate, they are just slaves of in born habits and history.
    You write like English is a second language. To Russian.
    Kindly be more specific. You are implying something that you're leader is apt at. What next? Call me a letter box, with a watermeleon smile?
    "apt at", "watermeleon"...

    They are implying that English is your second language and my guess is they are right.

    That said, it means nothing. You are welcome to post what you like and everyone else is free to ignore or engage, as they see fit. A bit of variety in your comments might persuade more people to chat with you....

    Byronic, how ironic would that be!!
  • Options
    ydoethur said:

    Here is a sobering thought.

    Only one leader of the Labour Party elected since the first broadcast of Dr Who has won an overall majority at a general election.

    Even if I take the criteria back to the invasion of Poland, that only increases the number to two. (Admittedly, both won three overall majorities.)

    Labour are not very good at winning elections. Perhaps they should,pause and ask themselves why. It isn’t as though the Tories have been models of ability, integrity and good governance in that time.

    Another nugget: only one person born in the last 100 years has won an election for the Labour Party.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974

    Stocky said:

    malcolmg said:

    saddened said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
    How fat are you?
    Not very , far from skinny but not obese either. Just like good food and a nice refreshment. My organic roast chicken today was £14 on its own, assorted vegetables £4-5 pounds , roast potato's , gravy , trimmings a small amount. so it is gone and no starter or dessert and no nice wine to wash it down. To be fair as only two of us the chicken will do more than one meal.
    14 quid for a chicken! I`d want it to go on a date with me for that.
    It's a fiver for veg thats got me reeling, that's a weeks worth, surely?!
    No, some asparagus , brocolli stems , cavalo nero , be over a fiver , admittedly may get two meals out of them. Preferably organic as well if at all possible.
  • Options

    Please all Tory voters.

    Don't play the hardma hiding behind your keyboard that your a closet Tory. Let your workers, friends,family, neighobuird know you are the supporter and voter that made Boris Johnson prime minister. Display his values call your gay work colleagues a bumboy. Call your Muslim colleague a letterbox. Call your single mother feckless and her child illegitimate.

    Be a proud Tory and tell your workers so they know who you really are

    Do you by any chance have an off button or a zip?
  • Options
    melcfmelcf Posts: 166
    nunu2 said:

    Long-time lurker and first time poster here. Having spent my whole life in Grimsby I've never seen it mentioned so many times during an election campaign - usually it's one of those seats that gets forgotten about in the rush - but it's never been a VERY safe Labour seat (although they've held it since 1945) and I can't see them holding it this time; a combination of being a very pro-Brexit area and a general mistrust and distaste for Jeremy Corbyn.

    A previous comment about Melanie Onn being back in the lead is, I'm afraid, pie in the sky; I wonder what evidence (anecdotal or otherwise) the commenter had to back that up?

    Love the cut and thrust on the site though - long may it continue!

    I suspect the other poster is not even a British resident.

    Just goes to show you can know a language fluently but that is no substitute for learning cultural cues.
    Wow, so I'm not even born and raised here! You could even make Bojo look like an altar boy
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,636
    edited December 2019
    Difficult to believe Labour may be in trouble in Ashton-under-Lyne.

    The result last time was Lab 60%, Con 32%, UKIP 5%, LD 2%, Grn 2%.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    malcolmg said:

    saddened said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
    How fat are you?
    Not very , far from skinny but not obese either. Just like good food and a nice refreshment. My organic roast chicken today was £14 on its own, assorted vegetables £4-5 pounds , roast potato's , gravy , trimmings a small amount. so it is gone and no starter or dessert and no nice wine to wash it down. To be fair as only two of us the chicken will do more than one meal.
    14 quid for a chicken! I`d want it to go on a date with me for that.
    It's a fiver for veg thats got me reeling, that's a weeks worth, surely?!
    No, some asparagus , brocolli stems , cavalo nero , be over a fiver , admittedly may get two meals out of them. Preferably organic as well if at all possible.
    God I came out as a15 but I don’t know what cavalo Nero is, is it a type of turnip?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,225
    malcolmg said:

    No, some asparagus , brocolli stems , cavalo nero , be over a fiver , admittedly may get two meals out of them. Preferably organic as well if at all possible.

    I start to doubt your self reported "11 or 12" class rating.

    This sounds more mid teens.
  • Options
    malcolmg said:

    saddened said:

    malcolmg said:

    Stocky said:

    melcf said:

    melcf said:

    Cookie said:

    melcf said:

    In 2010, 20£ at Tesco could buy my stuff worth 3-4 carrier bags.
    After 2016, that went down below Now I can barely fill one.
    Don't worry, I always have oven ready Brexit to eat!!

    What the bloody hell are you on about? Prices have been going down for years in Tesco. And the other supermarkets too.
    BS

    https://www.ft.com/content/0ee55f40-b2c9-11e9-8cb2-799a3a8cf37b
    Pound has fallen 15-20%since 2016. Britain imports a large amount of it's food stuff
    So elementary Mr Watson
    Some food items have risen due to the XR it`s true, but this effect is nowhere near sufficient to justify the claim that you made.

    Unless all you buy is avocados
    plus £20 would only buy you a days food at very best
    How fat are you?
    Not very , far from skinny but not obese either. Just like good food and a nice refreshment. My organic roast chicken today was £14 on its own, assorted vegetables £4-5 pounds , roast potato's , gravy , trimmings a small amount. so it is gone and no starter or dessert and no nice wine to wash it down. To be fair as only two of us the chicken will do more than one meal.
    £14 for a roast chicken! They are £3.50 from Waitrose!
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,353
    ukelect said:

    Hopefully this will work...

    Here's the latest UK-Elect Forecast (Conservative majority of 60 - Con 354 Lab 212 SNP 43 LD 17) as a map:

    Forecast - United Kingdom

    More maps here: UK-Elect Forecast Maps December 8th 2019

    Labour need to be sub 190
  • Options
    alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Just been looking at the odds. I am surprised that it is still possible to make a profit by arbitrage betting both LD and Conservative on seats including Guildford, Wimbledon and Finchley (assuming you believe the chances of Labour winning these seats is effectively zero). I had expected such opportunities to have gone by now (although I suspect it would be difficult to get enough money on to make it very worthwhile). Even better for Lab/Con binary in Southport (if you believe the constituency poll ruling out the LDs).
This discussion has been closed.