Re Rod Crosby, I think the confusion came from the comment that he had died "just like all the Jews in Aushwitz". Obviously, to a normal person, that would imply that he was - you know - dead. While to Rod, it was an indication that nothing was wrong at all.
He posted pictures here of his dental implants (done in Hungary). He is/was a one-off I think. But his championing of the Norpeth-Lebo (?) elections model was on the button.
Re Rod Crosby, I think the confusion came from the comment that he had died "just like all the Jews in Aushwitz". Obviously, to a normal person, that would imply that he was - you know - dead. While to Rod, it was an indication that nothing was wrong at all.
I shouldn't have laughed.
(As far as jokes go, I felt it was a little close to the line... but I couldn't resist.)
It is the best analysis I have read of the Boris Phenomenon, for good and bad. Devoid of Brexity hysteria.
UNLURK
I think I have said this a few times before over the years - read Orwell, especially his "Notes on Nationalism".
Brexit is about British nationalism.
It is opposed by Euronationalists & their kin the Internationalists.
Corbyn is a Negative nationalist - hence his instinct is towards every opponent of this country (IRA, Putin etc)...
Boris Johnson is British nationalist.
Those expecting the perceived success or failure of Brexit from the point of view of leave should consider the following. In how many countries around the world that left empires or other countries do the nationalists sum up their success in economic terms?
Nationalism didn't do Yugoslavia any favours.....
It is a horrible ideology that diminishes human beings...but you are right nationalists are quite happy to pay an economic (and often worse price) for their nasty, transactional views
Jeremy Corbyn spent the last Sunday before the general election in the company of 200 supporters in a Welsh village hall today.
The Labour leader took his campaign roadshow to the town of Llanfairfechan on the North Wales coast to meet placard-waving admirers four days before the election. The town of 3,600 people is in the marginal constituency of Aberconwy, where the Conservatives clung on by only 635 votes at the 2017 election.
Unusual choice Aberconwy I should say. Looked up the social media profiles of Lab candidate Owen. She seems to be going down in a blaze of glory, so to speak. The Conservative guy is a newbie. Bookies offering 5/2 on Labour here. Tempting...
It is the best analysis I have read of the Boris Phenomenon, for good and bad. Devoid of Brexity hysteria.
UNLURK
I think I have said this a few times before over the years - read Orwell, especially his "Notes on Nationalism".
Brexit is about British nationalism.
It is opposed by Euronationalists & their kin the Internationalists.
Corbyn is a Negative nationalist - hence his instinct is towards every opponent of this country (IRA, Putin etc)...
Boris Johnson is British nationalist.
Those expecting the perceived success or failure of Brexit from the point of view of leave should consider the following. In how many countries around the world that left empires or other countries do the nationalists sum up their success in economic terms?
I agree with you, but I think he's an English nationalist: I don't think he has a strong affiliation to Scotland and his willingness to discard the Northern Irish is a matter of record.
I didn't know that. I know that Plato and Mark Senior had passed on, but I didn't know about Rod Crosby.
Has anyone heard from Socrates recently? I really liked him and it is a shame he is not posting anymore.
Yeah, Socrates was good. Waspish and wise.
We really are like an old pub, where the muttering regulars occasionally fall off their perch, and nobody notices until they NOTICE
RESPECT to all PB-ERS, left and right, Nat and Scone, Welsh and UKIP, lagershedders and Rogerdamus. Also OGH and NPXMP
In some weeks I spend more time on here than I do with, say, my family. OMFG.
Spending time on this site has caused many a strained word between myself and the missus! I've even zoned out of conversations with her and the kids because of the addiction of PB and got a flea in the ear!
I am fortunate in that my wife is a lurker on here. So she understands my madness.
It'd quite common for the dead to continue editing Wikipedia pages. If you go to a seance these days, you see that communication with the dead happens almost entirely via an elaborate editing dance.
Pause.
Um, do you mean what you said? I can't help thinking that proof of postmortem sockpuppetry deserves more comment than that.
I didn't know that. I know that Plato and Mark Senior had passed on, but I didn't know about Rod Crosby.
Has anyone heard from Socrates recently? I really liked him and it is a shame he is not posting anymore.
Yeah, Socrates was good. Waspish and wise.
We really are like an old pub, where the muttering regulars occasionally fall off their perch, and nobody notices until they NOTICE
RESPECT to all PB-ERS, left and right, Nat and Scone, Welsh and UKIP, lagershedders and Rogerdamus. Also OGH and NPXMP
In some weeks I spend more time on here than I do with, say, my family. OMFG.
Spending time on this site has caused many a strained word between myself and the missus! I've even zoned out of conversations with her and the kids because of the addiction of PB and got a flea in the ear!
I am fortunate in that my wife is a lurker on here. So she understands my madness.
I didn't know that. I know that Plato and Mark Senior had passed on, but I didn't know about Rod Crosby.
Has anyone heard from Socrates recently? I really liked him and it is a shame he is not posting anymore.
Yeah, Socrates was good. Waspish and wise.
We really are like an old pub, where the muttering regulars occasionally fall off their perch, and nobody notices until they NOTICE
RESPECT to all PB-ERS, left and right, Nat and Scone, Welsh and UKIP, lagershedders and Rogerdamus. Also OGH and NPXMP
In some weeks I spend more time on here than I do with, say, my family. OMFG.
Spending time on this site has caused many a strained word between myself and the missus! I've even zoned out of conversations with her and the kids because of the addiction of PB and got a flea in the ear!
I am fortunate in that my wife is a lurker on here. So she understands my madness.
Does she ever surprise you with a slice of pineapple pizza?
I didn't know that. I know that Plato and Mark Senior had passed on, but I didn't know about Rod Crosby.
Has anyone heard from Socrates recently? I really liked him and it is a shame he is not posting anymore.
Yeah, Socrates was good. Waspish and wise.
We really are like an old pub, where the muttering regulars occasionally fall off their perch, and nobody notices until they NOTICE
RESPECT to all PB-ERS, left and right, Nat and Scone, Welsh and UKIP, lagershedders and Rogerdamus. Also OGH and NPXMP
In some weeks I spend more time on here than I do with, say, my family. OMFG.
Spending time on this site has caused many a strained word between myself and the missus! I've even zoned out of conversations with her and the kids because of the addiction of PB and got a flea in the ear!
I am fortunate in that my wife is a lurker on here. So she understands my madness.
Greetings, lurking Mrs T.
I wonder how many lurkers we have on this site. I guess the page view figures vs the active membership would give us a figure?
It is the best analysis I have read of the Boris Phenomenon, for good and bad. Devoid of Brexity hysteria.
UNLURK
I think I have said this a few times before over the years - read Orwell, especially his "Notes on Nationalism".
Brexit is about British nationalism.
It is opposed by Euronationalists & their kin the Internationalists.
Corbyn is a Negative nationalist - hence his instinct is towards every opponent of this country (IRA, Putin etc)...
Boris Johnson is British nationalist.
Those expecting the perceived success or failure of Brexit from the point of view of leave should consider the following. In how many countries around the world that left empires or other countries do the nationalists sum up their success in economic terms?
It is the best analysis I have read of the Boris Phenomenon, for good and bad. Devoid of Brexity hysteria.
UNLURK
I think I have said this a few times before over the years - read Orwell, especially his "Notes on Nationalism".
Brexit is about British nationalism.
It is opposed by Euronationalists & their kin the Internationalists.
Corbyn is a Negative nationalist - hence his instinct is towards every opponent of this country (IRA, Putin etc)...
Boris Johnson is British nationalist.
Those expecting the perceived success or failure of Brexit from the point of view of leave should consider the following. In how many countries around the world that left empires or other countries do the nationalists sum up their success in economic terms?
Nationalism didn't do Yugoslavia any favours.....
It is a horrible ideology that diminishes human beings...but you are right nationalists are quite happy to pay an economic (and often worse price) for their nasty, transactional views
It was the forcing together of the different countries and cultures in the first place to form Yugoslavia that was the root cause of the violence.
Anyhoo, stop your mithering. Following the release of the "Black Widow" and James Bond trailers last week, the trailer for "Wonder Woman 1984" is now out. Please enjoy the work of Israel's greatest export (tiny skirt division) and a lovely remix of New Order. Dr Prasannan's pants haven't exploded so hard since the Ghost In the Shell trailer had a Depeche Mode cover on it. Enjoy.
I didn't know that. I know that Plato and Mark Senior had passed on, but I didn't know about Rod Crosby.
Has anyone heard from Socrates recently? I really liked him and it is a shame he is not posting anymore.
Yeah, Socrates was good. Waspish and wise.
We really are like an old pub, where the muttering regulars occasionally fall off their perch, and nobody notices until they NOTICE
RESPECT to all PB-ERS, left and right, Nat and Scone, Welsh and UKIP, lagershedders and Rogerdamus. Also OGH and NPXMP
In some weeks I spend more time on here than I do with, say, my family. OMFG.
Spending time on this site has caused many a strained word between myself and the missus! I've even zoned out of conversations with her and the kids because of the addiction of PB and got a flea in the ear!
I am fortunate in that my wife is a lurker on here. So she understands my madness.
Does she ever surprise you with a slice of pineapple pizza?
Well I must admit I have never heard it called that before!!
I feel like we're going to see clearer polarisation along indyref voting lines, as what remains of the SLab vote melts away. So Tories up in more Leave/No voting areas like the one I live in, SNP back up in Glasgow/Dundee etc.
In Wimbledon today there was a group of Liberals looking a bit confused by the local geography , so I asked them where they were from. One was the Liberal candidate for Richmond Park.So I suppose they think that is nailed on,and that they think they have a sporting chance here. I don't think they will win here for reasons I could explain if anyone was interested, though I think they may run fairly close.
Unusual choice Aberconwy I should say. Looked up the social media profiles of Lab candidate Owen. She seems to be going down in a blaze of glory, so to speak. The Conservative guy is a newbie. Bookies offering 5/2 on Labour here. Tempting.
My guess is that a good Labour candidate could have taken neighbouring Arfon (where there is Bangor University).
The slate town of Llanfairfechan is not typical of the Aberconwy constituency. Inland, there is prosperous farmland in the Conwy Valley.
I don't think Labour will take Aberconwy this time -- the previous Tory MP may also have depressed the Tory vote as he was rather cantankerous,
Anyhoo, stop your mithering. Following the release of the "Black Widow" and James Bond trailers last week, the trailer for "Wonder Woman 1984" is now out. Please enjoy the work of Israel's greatest export (tiny skirt division) and a lovely remix of New Order. Dr Prasannan's pants haven't exploded so hard since the Ghost In the Shell trailer had a Depeche Mode cover on it. Enjoy.
@TSE - looks to me like CCHQ are worried the late threat is to Tory seats in the SE and London from Lab/LD tacticals.
It’s possible the air war has already done its job in the north/midlands.
I was just going to say something similar.
Maybe their numbers are showing that they are doing well in the Northern/Midlands marginals, but are concerned about losing share in the South.
Would not be totally surprising, although whether there are enough of them to make a decisive difference is open to question (that said, if the Tories are leaving nothing to chance then that is wise.)
Tory-held marginals in London, the South East and East Anglia (with majorities shown):
Southampton Itchen (31)** Richmond Park (45) Hastings and Rye (346)* Chipping Barnet (353) Thurrock (345)*** Norwich North (507) Hendon (1,072) Milton Keynes South (1,725) Milton Keynes North (1,915) Finchley and Golders Green (1,657) Putney (1,554) Harrow East (1,757) Watford (2,092) Crawley (2,457) Chingford and Wood Green (2,438) Reading West (2,876) Stevenage (3,384)* Cities of London and Westminster (3,148) Worthing East and Shoreham (5,106) Lewes (5,508) Colchester (5,677) St Albans (6,109) Uxbridge and Ruislip South (5,034)* Wimbledon (5,622) Rochford and Southend East (5,548)**
The list is culled directly from one ordered by swing required to unseat the incumbent, hence the fact that they aren't quite in perfect order by majority. I've declined to list seats beyond these, all of which have Conservative majorities in excess of 6,000 and require swings in excess of 6% to unseat the incumbent. There's obviously speculation about very large movements in a few seats that are former Lib Dem bases of strength or where special local circumstances apply, but there are only a small handful of those (Guildford, Winchester, South Cambs, possibly Wokingham, I'm struggling after that.)
The list of marginals above consists of 25 seats. Those with asterisks have estimated Leave percentages of 55%+ (*), 60%+ (**) and 70%+ (***). On that basis I think it's fair to rule ultra-marginal but ultra-Leave Thurrock out of the running in terms of Opposition gains, along with Stevenage, the PM's seat and Rochford. Add the oddities back in, on the other hand, and I think that still leaves about 25 potentially vulnerable seats in the capital and surrounding counties.
It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem Hastings and Rye: Likely Con Chipping Barnet: Tossup Norwich North: Likely Con Hendon: Lean Con MK South: Likely Con MK North: Lean Con Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con Putney: Lean Con Harrow East: Likely Con Watford: Likely Con Crawley: Likely Con Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con Reading West: Likely Con Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con Lewes: Lean Con Colchester: Safe Con St Albans: Likely Lib Dem Wimbledon: Likely Con Guildford: Lean Con Winchester: Lean Con South Cambs: Lean Con Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
"Labour insiders said their canvassing data in many leave areas has improved in recent weeks as the debate has widened beyond Brexit to the state of public services and the future of the health service.
But the party is braced for a string of defeats in the Midlands, with West Bromwich East, where Tom Watson stood aside at the start of the campaign, Birmingham Northfields, and Dudley North among the constituencies believed to be vulnerable.
However they are still hopeful of making a few gains, including Iain Duncan Smith’s Chingford, where Johnson was out campaigning on Sunday in a move that suggests the Tories are worried that the former Tory leader could lose to Faiza Shaheen.
Resources have been shifted modestly towards defending Labour-held seats in the past 10 days; but some candidates with wafer-thin majorities complain that the effort has been too little, too late."
Anyhoo, stop your mithering. Following the release of the "Black Widow" and James Bond trailers last week, the trailer for "Wonder Woman 1984" is now out. Please enjoy the work of Israel's greatest export (tiny skirt division) and a lovely remix of New Order. Dr Prasannan's pants haven't exploded so hard since the Ghost In the Shell trailer had a Depeche Mode cover on it. Enjoy.
It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem Hastings and Rye: Likely Con Chipping Barnet: Tossup Norwich North: Likely Con Hendon: Lean Con MK South: Likely Con MK North: Lean Con Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con Putney: Lean Con Harrow East: Likely Con Watford: Likely Con Crawley: Likely Con Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con Reading West: Likely Con Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con Lewes: Lean Con Colchester: Safe Con St Albans: Likely Lib Dem Wimbledon: Likely Con Guildford: Lean Con Winchester: Lean Con South Cambs: Lean Con Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
I see Tory in Hastings said disabled people dont understand money and employers should be able to pay them next to nothing.
Wonder if could be Lab gain or if Tories can literally say anything and still win.
Anyhoo, stop your mithering. Following the release of the "Black Widow" and James Bond trailers last week, the trailer for "Wonder Woman 1984" is now out. Please enjoy the work of Israel's greatest export (tiny skirt division) and a lovely remix of New Order. Dr Prasannan's pants haven't exploded so hard since the Ghost In the Shell trailer had a Depeche Mode cover on it. Enjoy.
Unusual choice Aberconwy I should say. Looked up the social media profiles of Lab candidate Owen. She seems to be going down in a blaze of glory, so to speak. The Conservative guy is a newbie. Bookies offering 5/2 on Labour here. Tempting.
My guess is that a good Labour candidate could have taken neighbouring Arfon (where there is Bangor University).
The slate town of Llanfairfechan is not typical of the Aberconwy constituency. Inland, there is prosperous farmland in the Conwy Valley.
I don't think Labour will take Aberconwy this time -- the previous Tory MP may also have depressed the Tory vote as he was rather cantankerous,
But BigG will know more. It is his patch.
Big G, any info about Aberconwy? A lot of unusual variables in this seat.
If you mentally subtract the red crosses and keep the black crosses, the black crosses (Boris) are predominantly in Leave Tory consituencies. If you mentally subtract the black crosses and keep the red crosses, the red crosses are more evenly distributed and are arguably more concentrated in Labour Remain areas.
It is the best analysis I have read of the Boris Phenomenon, for good and bad. Devoid of Brexity hysteria.
UNLURK
I think I have said this a few times before over the years - read Orwell, especially his "Notes on Nationalism".
Brexit is about British nationalism.
It is opposed by Euronationalists & their kin the Internationalists.
Corbyn is a Negative nationalist - hence his instinct is towards every opponent of this country (IRA, Putin etc)...
Boris Johnson is British nationalist.
Those expecting the perceived success or failure of Brexit from the point of view of leave should consider the following. In how many countries around the world that left empires or other countries do the nationalists sum up their success in economic terms?
Nationalism didn't do Yugoslavia any favours.....
It is a horrible ideology that diminishes human beings...but you are right nationalists are quite happy to pay an economic (and often worse price) for their nasty, transactional views
It was the forcing together of the different countries and cultures in the first place to form Yugoslavia that was the root cause of the violence.
In the case of Yugoslavia - it froze the violence by threat of more violence.
Tyson - you should read Orwell's essay. The core is this - everyone is a nationalist. Historically, nationalism has moved up from the clan, to the village to the town, to the county, to the country - and then beyond. Orwell notes the phenomenon of the trans-country nationalisms of his time - International Socialism, Communism, Fascism and an old one - Catholicism.
His point was the same emotional and physiological structures underly all of them. And everyone has one or more "nationalisms" they adhere to.
Ultimately, they are more about emotion than cold logic. And there is little more pointless than a nationalist of one ilk deriding the nationalist of another ilk for being "wrong"
Anyhoo, stop your mithering. Following the release of the "Black Widow" and James Bond trailers last week, the trailer for "Wonder Woman 1984" is now out. Please enjoy the work of Israel's greatest export (tiny skirt division) and a lovely remix of New Order. Dr Prasannan's pants haven't exploded so hard since the Ghost In the Shell trailer had a Depeche Mode cover on it. Enjoy.
Anyhoo, stop your mithering. Following the release of the "Black Widow" and James Bond trailers last week, the trailer for "Wonder Woman 1984" is now out. Please enjoy the work of Israel's greatest export (tiny skirt division)
If you mentally subtract the red crosses and keep the black crosses, the black crosses (Boris) are predominantly in Leave Tory consituencies. If you mentally subtract the black crosses and keep the red crosses, the red crosses are more evenly distributed and are arguably more concentrated in Labour Remain areas.
Or have I misinterpreted this?
I'd like to see the same graphic but with the Momentum candidates highlighted. I suspect we'd see a closer correlation then.
Quite a lot of persistent rain currently forecast for Thursday, particularly in the afternoon - of course this could change, although 3-5 day forecasts these days tend to be fairly accurate. Obviously this would tend to hit the overall turnout, but in terms of its effect on the GE result how is persistent rain likely to help or hinder the various parties?
@Richard_Tyndall You are right about nationalism being a core human emotion..... My own leanings to Man City and the Labour Party are part of my tribalism.....
It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem Hastings and Rye: Likely Con Chipping Barnet: Tossup Norwich North: Likely Con Hendon: Lean Con MK South: Likely Con MK North: Lean Con Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con Putney: Lean Con Harrow East: Likely Con Watford: Likely Con Crawley: Likely Con Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con Reading West: Likely Con Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con Lewes: Lean Con Colchester: Safe Con St Albans: Likely Lib Dem Wimbledon: Likely Con Guildford: Lean Con Winchester: Lean Con South Cambs: Lean Con Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
I see Tory in Hastings said disabled people dont understand money and employers should be able to pay them next to nothing.
Wonder if could be Lab gain or if Tories can literally say anything and still win.
I’m guessing she was referring to what Lord Freud said about many mentally disabled people been priced out of the job market because the minimum wage is far greater than the value they bring to their firm.
But, as we all know it’s far better to pretend otherwise and to have disabled people dependent on social services paid 24/7 support than go out to work.
At the very least it takes the time to note that the Trump comparisons are easily taken too far based on superficial elements. Which need not be an endorsement of Johnson, not at all, just that he is a more complex individual personally and politically than Trump appears to be, and it does none of us favours to think it as simple as he is the Britain Trump.
It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem Hastings and Rye: Likely Con Chipping Barnet: Tossup Norwich North: Likely Con Hendon: Lean Con MK South: Likely Con MK North: Lean Con Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con Putney: Lean Con Harrow East: Likely Con Watford: Likely Con Crawley: Likely Con Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con Reading West: Likely Con Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con Lewes: Lean Con Colchester: Safe Con St Albans: Likely Lib Dem Wimbledon: Likely Con Guildford: Lean Con Winchester: Lean Con South Cambs: Lean Con Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
I see Tory in Hastings said disabled people dont understand money and employers should be able to pay them next to nothing.
Wonder if could be Lab gain or if Tories can literally say anything and still win.
Plus she's being investigated for anti-semitic comments, just saying.
I remember Nick P saying in 2015- look to see where the leaders are going and the rest is history
If so, then a lot of people are in for a big shock in a few days time. Would be very interesting indeed.
I can’t shake off the feeling that there is far too much Tory hubris. If I had to guess I think the Tory lead - if it exists - is no more than 4-6% and a HP is much more likely than many are assuming. Indeed, we might end up with a Parliament where no combination of parties can have a majority. God knows what happens then.
Anyway, time for bed. And to catch up on Radio 4’s Middlemarch. What a marvellous book it is.
Rod Crosby told someone on here that they were mistaken and that they didn't lose any family members in the holocaust and that they probably just changed their name and moved to a different country.
Holocaust deniers get zero fucking sympathy dead or alive. Preferably dead.
Quite a lot of persistent rain currently forecast for Thursday, particularly in the afternoon - of course this could change, although 3-5 day forecasts these days tend to be fairly accurate. Obviously this would tend to hit the overall turnout, but in terms of its effect on the GE result how is persistent rain likely to help or hinder the various parties?
That must be bad for the marginals that the Tories are hoping to secure...in fact it could be more than bad....
It is the best analysis I have read of the Boris Phenomenon, for good and bad. Devoid of Brexity hysteria.
UNLURK
I think I have said this a few times before over the years - read Orwell, especially his "Notes on Nationalism".
Brexit is about British nationalism.
It is opposed by Euronationalists & their kin the Internationalists.
Corbyn is a Negative nationalist - hence his instinct is towards every opponent of this country (IRA, Putin etc)...
Boris Johnson is British nationalist.
Those expecting the perceived success or failure of Brexit from the point of view of leave should consider the following. In how many countries around the world that left empires or other countries do the nationalists sum up their success in economic terms?
Nationalism didn't do Yugoslavia any favours.....
It is a horrible ideology that diminishes human beings...but you are right nationalists are quite happy to pay an economic (and often worse price) for their nasty, transactional views
It was the forcing together of the different countries and cultures in the first place to form Yugoslavia that was the root cause of the violence.
In the case of Yugoslavia - it froze the violence by threat of more violence.
Tyson - you should read Orwell's essay. The core is this - everyone is a nationalist. Historically, nationalism has moved up from the clan, to the village to the town, to the county, to the country - and then beyond. Orwell notes the phenomenon of the trans-country nationalisms of his time - International Socialism, Communism, Fascism and an old one - Catholicism.
His point was the same emotional and physiological structures underly all of them. And everyone has one or more "nationalisms" they adhere to.
Ultimately, they are more about emotion than cold logic. And there is little more pointless than a nationalist of one ilk deriding the nationalist of another ilk for being "wrong"
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
I remember Nick P saying in 2015- look to see where the leaders are going and the rest is history
If so, then a lot of people are in for a big shock in a few days time. Would be very interesting indeed.
I can’t shake off the feeling that there is far too much Tory hubris. If I had to guess I think the Tory lead - if it exists - is no more than 4-6% and a HP is much more likely than many are assuming. Indeed, we might end up with a Parliament where no combination of parties can have a majority. God knows what happens then.
Anyway, time for bed. And to catch up on Radio 4’s Middlemarch. What a marvellous book it is.
Except so many Tories are making the very point that a hung parliament is possible and a big majority is not likely. Even on ultra safe seats the leaflets say the election will be close. So while in the last few days I think a few more have dared to become a bit more confident as the lead is maintained, I don't actually think it fair to say there has been that much hubris.
Anyhoo, stop your mithering. Following the release of the "Black Widow" and James Bond trailers last week, the trailer for "Wonder Woman 1984" is now out. Please enjoy the work of Israel's greatest export (tiny skirt division)
I remember Nick P saying in 2015- look to see where the leaders are going and the rest is history
If so, then a lot of people are in for a big shock in a few days time. Would be very interesting indeed.
I can’t shake off the feeling that there is far too much Tory hubris. If I had to guess I think the Tory lead - if it exists - is no more than 4-6% and a HP is much more likely than many are assuming. Indeed, we might end up with a Parliament where no combination of parties can have a majority. God knows what happens then.
Anyway, time for bed. And to catch up on Radio 4’s Middlemarch. What a marvellous book it is.
Never did it for me. Give me P&P or Our Mutual Friend over Middlemarch any day.
It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem Hastings and Rye: Likely Con Chipping Barnet: Tossup Norwich North: Likely Con Hendon: Lean Con MK South: Likely Con MK North: Lean Con Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con Putney: Lean Con Harrow East: Likely Con Watford: Likely Con Crawley: Likely Con Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con Reading West: Likely Con Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con Lewes: Lean Con Colchester: Safe Con St Albans: Likely Lib Dem Wimbledon: Likely Con Guildford: Lean Con Winchester: Lean Con South Cambs: Lean Con Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
I see Tory in Hastings said disabled people dont understand money and employers should be able to pay them next to nothing.
Wonder if could be Lab gain or if Tories can literally say anything and still win.
Plus she's being investigated for anti-semitic comments, just saying.
Anyhoo, stop your mithering. Following the release of the "Black Widow" and James Bond trailers last week, the trailer for "Wonder Woman 1984" is now out. Please enjoy the work of Israel's greatest export (tiny skirt division)
Quite a lot of persistent rain currently forecast for Thursday, particularly in the afternoon - of course this could change, although 3-5 day forecasts these days tend to be fairly accurate. Obviously this would tend to hit the overall turnout, but in terms of its effect on the GE result how is persistent rain likely to help or hinder the various parties?
That must be bad for the marginals that the Tories are hoping to secure...in fact it could be more than bad....
Why? Surely it just means the less motivated voters don't turn out - and at the moment we can't presume who they might support.
It is the best analysis I have read of the Boris Phenomenon, for good and bad. Devoid of Brexity hysteria.
UNLURK
I think I have said this a few times before over the years - read Orwell, especially his "Notes on Nationalism".
Brexit is about British nationalism.
It is opposed by Euronationalists & their kin the Internationalists.
Corbyn is a Negative nationalist - hence his instinct is towards every opponent of this country (IRA, Putin etc)...
Boris Johnson is British nationalist.
Those expecting the perceived success or failure of Brexit from the point of view of leave should consider the following. In how many countries around the world that left empires or other countries do the nationalists sum up their success in economic terms?
Nationalism didn't do Yugoslavia any favours.....
It is a horrible ideology that diminishes human beings...but you are right nationalists are quite happy to pay an economic (and often worse price) for their nasty, transactional views
It was the forcing together of the different countries and cultures in the first place to form Yugoslavia that was the root cause of the violence.
In the case of Yugoslavia - it froze the violence by threat of more violence.
Tyson - you should read Orwell's essay. The core is this - everyone is a nationalist. Historically, nationalism has moved up from the clan, to the village to the town, to the county, to the country - and then beyond. Orwell notes the phenomenon of the trans-country nationalisms of his time - International Socialism, Communism, Fascism and an old one - Catholicism.
His point was the same emotional and physiological structures underly all of them. And everyone has one or more "nationalisms" they adhere to.
Ultimately, they are more about emotion than cold logic. And there is little more pointless than a nationalist of one ilk deriding the nationalist of another ilk for being "wrong"
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
Why be shocked? A nationalist never believes the alternative to his/her nostrums is anything other than WRONG.
Anyhoo, stop your mithering. Following the release of the "Black Widow" and James Bond trailers last week, the trailer for "Wonder Woman 1984" is now out. Please enjoy the work of Israel's greatest export (tiny skirt division) and a lovely remix of New Order. Dr Prasannan's pants haven't exploded so hard since the Ghost In the Shell trailer had a Depeche Mode cover on it. Enjoy.
Much as I fancy Gal Gadot and Scarlett Johansson, I haven't seen either the previous Wonder Woman movie or Ghost in the Shell
The former isn't out yet and nobody went to see the GITS movie except for tumbleweed and the director's mum.
I saw it! It was 'average'!
I thought it was a good opportunity wasted. It didn't translate that well to the screen and it wasn't one of ScarJo's better performances. However the Black Widow trailer looks promising
It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem Hastings and Rye: Likely Con Chipping Barnet: Tossup Norwich North: Likely Con Hendon: Lean Con MK South: Likely Con MK North: Lean Con Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con Putney: Lean Con Harrow East: Likely Con Watford: Likely Con Crawley: Likely Con Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con Reading West: Likely Con Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con Lewes: Lean Con Colchester: Safe Con St Albans: Likely Lib Dem Wimbledon: Likely Con Guildford: Lean Con Winchester: Lean Con South Cambs: Lean Con Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
I see Tory in Hastings said disabled people dont understand money and employers should be able to pay them next to nothing.
Wonder if could be Lab gain or if Tories can literally say anything and still win.
I’m guessing she was referring to what Lord Freud said about many mentally disabled people been priced out of the job market because the minimum wage is far greater than the value they bring to their firm.
But, as we all know it’s far better to pretend otherwise and to have disabled people dependent on social services paid 24/7 support than go out to work.
Mrs BJ is a paraplegic and takes great offense at the comments.
The big yet anticipated surprises for me will be Tories UP in Scotland and the LDS DOWN from their present MP count.
The latter now looks positively likely
Whatever else this GE will be (the end of the EU, the end of the UK, etc) it will be DEMOCRATIC and FUCKING COMPELLING
Is there a market where I can bet on the following - IF the Tories win a majority, THEN Gina Miller will launch a court case to try and overturn the result?
Quite a lot of persistent rain currently forecast for Thursday, particularly in the afternoon - of course this could change, although 3-5 day forecasts these days tend to be fairly accurate. Obviously this would tend to hit the overall turnout, but in terms of its effect on the GE result how is persistent rain likely to help or hinder the various parties?
That must be bad for the marginals that the Tories are hoping to secure...in fact it could be more than bad....
I have no idea but the Sky News paper review thought exactly the opposite. They believed that with Labour relying so heavily on both young first time voters and GOTV, bad weather on polling day would hit Labour disproportionately badly.
I understand the basic logic but have no idea if it is correct.
Anyhoo, stop your mithering. Following the release of the "Black Widow" and James Bond trailers last week, the trailer for "Wonder Woman 1984" is now out. Please enjoy the work of Israel's greatest export (tiny skirt division)
Peter Hook isn't...slight bone of contention for the bassist
I think his issue was for money that the name New Order earned after he left (which is now settled). I'd assume he would still get whatever he's owed for past work.
The big yet anticipated surprises for me will be Tories UP in Scotland and the LDS DOWN from their present MP count.
The latter now looks positively likely
Whatever else this GE will be (the end of the EU, the end of the UK, etc) it will be DEMOCRATIC and FUCKING COMPELLING
I expect the Lib Dems will only make a few gains from their 2017 total and that means they’ll end up below what they’ve currently got .
The BP standing down in Tory seats has really hurt their chances . As for the Tories in Scotland , many of the seats up there are quite marginal .
So anything could happen be it SNP taking upper 40s range to only a few gains .
The LD's look like they're going to gain seats like Richmond, Wimbledon, Guildford and possibly even Winchester. I'd have them up on last time's original total as well, at least.
Quite a lot of persistent rain currently forecast for Thursday, particularly in the afternoon - of course this could change, although 3-5 day forecasts these days tend to be fairly accurate. Obviously this would tend to hit the overall turnout, but in terms of its effect on the GE result how is persistent rain likely to help or hinder the various parties?
That must be bad for the marginals that the Tories are hoping to secure...in fact it could be more than bad....
The voters I have been talking to would cross burning coals to get to polling stations to keep Corbyn out of power. Those who haven't already used their postal votes.
Quite a lot of persistent rain currently forecast for Thursday, particularly in the afternoon - of course this could change, although 3-5 day forecasts these days tend to be fairly accurate. Obviously this would tend to hit the overall turnout, but in terms of its effect on the GE result how is persistent rain likely to help or hinder the various parties?
That must be bad for the marginals that the Tories are hoping to secure...in fact it could be more than bad....
I have no idea but the Sky News paper review thought exactly the opposite. They believed that with Labour relying so heavily on both young first time voters and GOTV, bad weather on polling day would hit Labour disproportionately badly.
I understand the basic logic but have no idea if it is correct.
I could understand an argument that said it would favour the postal voters as their votes would be proportionally more of the total. But then you'd have to know who the postal voters favoured before drawing a conclusion.
Quite a lot of persistent rain currently forecast for Thursday, particularly in the afternoon - of course this could change, although 3-5 day forecasts these days tend to be fairly accurate. Obviously this would tend to hit the overall turnout, but in terms of its effect on the GE result how is persistent rain likely to help or hinder the various parties?
That must be bad for the marginals that the Tories are hoping to secure...in fact it could be more than bad....
I have no idea but the Sky News paper review thought exactly the opposite. They believed that with Labour relying so heavily on both young first time voters and GOTV, bad weather on polling day would hit Labour disproportionately badly.
I understand the basic logic but have no idea if it is correct.
Postal votes may therefore be a greater proportion of votes cast than normal.
This is SO true. The exposed EU nationalism of Remainers has been very startling. They are prepared to sacrifice ANYTHING - British democracy, the Union, civil peace - as long as Brexit can be reversed and the EU sustained as is. Quite shocking.
Sacrifice the Union you say?
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
Comments
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1203808339752304640
But his championing of the Norpeth-Lebo (?) elections model was on the button.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1203812060095799297
It is a horrible ideology that diminishes human beings...but you are right nationalists are quite happy to pay an economic (and often worse price) for their nasty, transactional views
Scottish Tory printing presses rolling into action as we speak.
Survation said 1% CON lead on their weekend and final polls last time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election
CON finished +2%.
So the result this time is Survation at Midnight +1%!
Survation.
@Survation
·
Dec 7
for this one? Thursday - Saturday, but most of the fieldwork between Friday afternoon-evening and Saturday (today) - it's still in the field.
Um, do you mean what you said? I can't help thinking that proof of postmortem sockpuppetry deserves more comment than that.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/election-polls-labour-conservative-winner
Or deduct 1% if LAB are ahead
If you can't get the first six words right in your copy, FFS.....doesn't inspire me to read on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30FJvh0uqYQ
The slate town of Llanfairfechan is not typical of the Aberconwy constituency. Inland, there is prosperous farmland in the Conwy Valley.
I don't think Labour will take Aberconwy this time -- the previous Tory MP may also have depressed the Tory vote as he was rather cantankerous,
But BigG will know more. It is his patch.
Mrs BJ having her fitting for her drive from Motability WAV tomorrow.
I am then off to see Jumanji in 3D and a JoJo Rabbit preview starring Rod Crosby
Tory-held marginals in London, the South East and East Anglia (with majorities shown):
Southampton Itchen (31)**
Richmond Park (45)
Hastings and Rye (346)*
Chipping Barnet (353)
Thurrock (345)***
Norwich North (507)
Hendon (1,072)
Milton Keynes South (1,725)
Milton Keynes North (1,915)
Finchley and Golders Green (1,657)
Putney (1,554)
Harrow East (1,757)
Watford (2,092)
Crawley (2,457)
Chingford and Wood Green (2,438)
Reading West (2,876)
Stevenage (3,384)*
Cities of London and Westminster (3,148)
Worthing East and Shoreham (5,106)
Lewes (5,508)
Colchester (5,677)
St Albans (6,109)
Uxbridge and Ruislip South (5,034)*
Wimbledon (5,622)
Rochford and Southend East (5,548)**
The list is culled directly from one ordered by swing required to unseat the incumbent, hence the fact that they aren't quite in perfect order by majority. I've declined to list seats beyond these, all of which have Conservative majorities in excess of 6,000 and require swings in excess of 6% to unseat the incumbent. There's obviously speculation about very large movements in a few seats that are former Lib Dem bases of strength or where special local circumstances apply, but there are only a small handful of those (Guildford, Winchester, South Cambs, possibly Wokingham, I'm struggling after that.)
The list of marginals above consists of 25 seats. Those with asterisks have estimated Leave percentages of 55%+ (*), 60%+ (**) and 70%+ (***). On that basis I think it's fair to rule ultra-marginal but ultra-Leave Thurrock out of the running in terms of Opposition gains, along with Stevenage, the PM's seat and Rochford. Add the oddities back in, on the other hand, and I think that still leaves about 25 potentially vulnerable seats in the capital and surrounding counties.
(TBC)
It's then a matter of looking at the evidence for each one and deciding which might fall. FWIW, the YouGov MRP rates them as follows:
Southampton Itchen: Likely Con
Richmond Park: Likely Lib Dem
Hastings and Rye: Likely Con
Chipping Barnet: Tossup
Norwich North: Likely Con
Hendon: Lean Con
MK South: Likely Con
MK North: Lean Con
Finchley and Golders Green: Likely Con
Putney: Lean Con
Harrow East: Likely Con
Watford: Likely Con
Crawley: Likely Con
Chingford and Wood Green: Likely Con
Reading West: Likely Con
Cities of London and Westminster: Likely Con
Worthing East and Shoreham: Likely Con
Lewes: Lean Con
Colchester: Safe Con
St Albans: Likely Lib Dem
Wimbledon: Likely Con
Guildford: Lean Con
Winchester: Lean Con
South Cambs: Lean Con
Wokingham: Likely Con
That suggests only two likely losses and another eight reasonably tight contests. If Tory HQ are sending Boris Johnson out more widely in this part of the world then they're either being very cautious, or they're concerned about local factors not captured by this kind of modelling.
Alternatively, as others have suggested, maybe he's being used in defence because Tory HQ thinks he'll go down better campaigning in those sorts of seats, rather than the Northern Labour targets? Who can say?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/08/corbyn-launches-final-election-push-to-deny-tories-a-majority
"Labour insiders said their canvassing data in many leave areas has improved in recent weeks as the debate has widened beyond Brexit to the state of public services and the future of the health service.
But the party is braced for a string of defeats in the Midlands, with West Bromwich East, where Tom Watson stood aside at the start of the campaign, Birmingham Northfields, and Dudley North among the constituencies believed to be vulnerable.
However they are still hopeful of making a few gains, including Iain Duncan Smith’s Chingford, where Johnson was out campaigning on Sunday in a move that suggests the Tories are worried that the former Tory leader could lose to Faiza Shaheen.
Resources have been shifted modestly towards defending Labour-held seats in the past 10 days; but some candidates with wafer-thin majorities complain that the effort has been too little, too late."
That sounds like Tory +20 again.
https://twitter.com/xtophercook/status/1203781342124806144?s=19
Also, super interesting thread.
Wonder if could be Lab gain or if Tories can literally say anything and still win.
If you mentally subtract the red crosses and keep the black crosses, the black crosses (Boris) are predominantly in Leave Tory consituencies.
If you mentally subtract the black crosses and keep the red crosses, the red crosses are more evenly distributed and are arguably more concentrated in Labour Remain areas.
Or have I misinterpreted this?
Tyson - you should read Orwell's essay. The core is this - everyone is a nationalist. Historically, nationalism has moved up from the clan, to the village to the town, to the county, to the country - and then beyond. Orwell notes the phenomenon of the trans-country nationalisms of his time - International Socialism, Communism, Fascism and an old one - Catholicism.
His point was the same emotional and physiological structures underly all of them. And everyone has one or more "nationalisms" they adhere to.
Ultimately, they are more about emotion than cold logic. And there is little more pointless than a nationalist of one ilk deriding the nationalist of another ilk for being "wrong"
Obviously this would tend to hit the overall turnout, but in terms of its effect on the GE result how is persistent rain likely to help or hinder the various parties?
You are right about nationalism being a core human emotion.....
My own leanings to Man City and the Labour Party are part of my tribalism.....
But, these leanings bring out the worst in me....
But, as we all know it’s far better to pretend otherwise and to have disabled people dependent on social services paid 24/7 support than go out to work.
The latter now looks positively likely
Whatever else this GE will be (the end of the EU, the end of the UK, etc) it will be DEMOCRATIC and FUCKING COMPELLING
Anyway, time for bed. And to catch up on Radio 4’s Middlemarch. What a marvellous book it is.
Rod Crosby told someone on here that they were mistaken and that they didn't lose any family members in the holocaust and that they probably just changed their name and moved to a different country.
Holocaust deniers get zero fucking sympathy dead or alive. Preferably dead.
The BP standing down in Tory seats has really hurt their chances . As for the Tories in Scotland , many of the seats up there are quite marginal .
So anything could happen be it SNP taking upper 40s range to only a few gains .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RxAtuMu_ph4
Whatever the context.
I understand the basic logic but have no idea if it is correct.
'Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.'
https://tinyurl.com/yyxeun7u
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50706932