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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB GE2019 Analysis: Corbyn’s Satisfaction Ratings at elections

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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190
    Russia banned from 2020 Olympics and 2022 World Cup (bot not the 2020 Euros, sorry Scotland).
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    murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,040

    murali_s said:

    Morning All,

    So even with a 10% lead in the polls, Johnson cannot resist reverting to type with dog whistle politics.

    Will please his fanboys on here but what a c*nt he is! Just a warning that immigrants of all descents need to be wary going forward.

    It really is remarkable how people on here continue to big him up when he comes out with things like this, shitting all over anyone with immigrants in their heritage, telling them how dare your parents or grandparents dream of a better life, come here, work hard and put down roots. As somebody whose kids' grandparents arrived here in the 1970s and have done far more to contribute to this country than all the knuckle dragging racists who carp on about immigrants: fuck you Boris Johnson.
    +1

    Johnson is a mendacious, disingenuous racist cowardly buffoon. Always has been as far as I concerned and always will be.

    The Tories will win the election and he will be our PM (in name only of course because I don't want someone like him representing me and I will not accept him as PM representing me).

    What really horrifies me is the large number of fanboys he has on this blog. All I can "Shame on you"!
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    malcolmg said:

    Cod politics.

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1203960224178151425

    Boris: the right man at the right plaice.....

    Especially given h'eel give it all away to EU yet again
    He wants to Turbot charge the economy.
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    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,548
    melcf said:

    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    If this is one nation it's not my nation.
    That article is an absolute disgrace . Amazing how so many Tory supporters in here are happy to give Johnson a free pass .
    Immigrant bashing has been a national past time. Blame everything on those 'Foccking Foreigners' job done.Charlatans, like Bojo, are skilled in stirring the pot. Why do you think the Sun and the Daily Mail sell?
    I remember tens of articles written on 'NHS Medical Tourism' When in reality, enter any NHS hospital and your more likely to find patients who are British, mostly elderly. While staff, specially in deprived areas as in the North, will be foreign.
    The last number I saw for the unrecovered cost of 'Health Tourism' was around 150-200 million a year. Obvs the normal 'other country treatment' activity is covered by international agreements and transfers.

    Not insignificant, and I do not think the 'tourism' is associated with 'immigrants'.

    If the quote is genuine, then it is reminiscent of Hague's ill-judged campaign back in the early noughties.
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    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
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    kle4 said:

    Great news! Novara have sorted the challenge on the doorstep - with advice like this, victory is assured, comrades.

    https://twitter.com/novaramedia/status/1203960263227121665

    What a way to dismiss any labour achievements because it happened pre Corbyn!
    So the recommended line is:

    “You know how you were feeling torn about voting Tory when you’ve got a Labour history in your family? Well don’t worry, we have no connection to that Labour heritage, you crack on”.

    Hmmm
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    If the Tories do win a substantial majority, then there will be plenty of blame to go round.

    Corby, obviously, cops a lot of blame -- but also

    (i) The LibDems who really did precipitate the election. There is talk of Tory "hubris", but that word seems easier to hang round the necks of the LibDems. I always thought they might end up playing the role of the SNP in the 1979 election.

    (iv) The Labour Leavers who missed the boat, once, twice, three times, four times.

    seemed to consider that might lose leverage.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing - but history is history. What matters is the future. With a big parliamentary majority the Tories will own absolutely everything that happens from here on in. There will be no-one else to blame and nowhere to hide. That is undoubtedly a very good thing.

    If the majority is big enough then Boris will pivot to BINO and betray the ERG. Scorpion, frog, river, etc.
    Hopefully. A swift move to a temporary EEA/EFA, secure fishing rights, citizenship rights, etc. But only temporary, every year Parliament will renew this temporary agreement... Just like income tax.

    Boris's strategy - if he is fortunate enough to get a big majority - will be to use that to credibly threaten an alternative economic model in the event of No Deal in order to force some more practical concessions from the EU. The EU will be just as bad in threatening No Deal unless the UK submits to all of their demands, as their primary negotiating goal is (still) to make an example of the UK.

    He'll then pivot to a sensible close post-Brexit relationship behind closed doors with them, and use his big majority to cushion the inevitable 20-40 Spartan rebels, once it's done. I expect that to be a fairly close arrangement. It's possible 2020 is used to agree the deal 'in principle' and the transition is extended into 2021 only for ratification, Walloon Parliament shenanigans etc.

    That's why, if I were him, I'd secretly be hoping for a majority of about 80+
    If Boris gets a big majority or any majority it is only coming from leave seats that have told those winning candidates that they are voting Tory to get brexit done. Those newly elected MP's are not going to commit political suicide by betraying the voters on Brexit. IMO they are far more likely to be "hard" brexiteers and will look to have a very visible Brexit that they can sell to their voters and "no trade" deal brexit is very sellable.
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    I see the left have retreated back to asserting that any politician who talks about immigration must automatically be racist. Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of whatever Johnson has actually said this time, I have to ask: do you people never learn? This attitude probably helped lose the 2010 election, the 2015 election and the EU referendum into the bargain. A new approach to addressing the point is badly needed.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    Andy_JS said:

    dr_spyn said:
    During the whole of the 1990s I can't remember the phrase "anti-Semitic" being used once in connection with any of the mainstream British political parties.
    In those days you just had Tory icons - who remain icons for some Tories - like Enoch Powell being genuine and thoroughgoing, bona fide antisemitic loons. He died around 1998.
    There was more than a whiff of old-fashioned English anti-semitism in some of the reaction to some of the people in Thatcher’s Cabinet (Leon Britton, for instance) and MacMillan’s reference to there being “more old Estonians than old Etonians” for instance. Thatcher herself was pretty pro-Jewish. It certainly was not the issue it has become today.
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    I think the DUP secretly crave betrayal.

    NEVER! NEVER! NEVER!
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,541
    Andy_JS said:

    I think the DUP secretly crave betrayal.

    Given their favourite phrases are "sold down the river" and "reneged on that agreement", I think you're right. 😊
    This is because while it is always obvious what they don't want with regard to Brexit they never say what they actually want apart from unicorns. Neither do we hear them robustly challenged on this in the media - as with the Today programme this morning, which gave her a free ride.

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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnson is persistently islamophobic?
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    murali_s said:

    murali_s said:

    Morning All,

    So even with a 10% lead in the polls, Johnson cannot resist reverting to type with dog whistle politics.

    Will please his fanboys on here but what a c*nt he is! Just a warning that immigrants of all descents need to be wary going forward.

    It really is remarkable how people on here continue to big him up when he comes out with things like this, shitting all over anyone with immigrants in their heritage, telling them how dare your parents or grandparents dream of a better life, come here, work hard and put down roots. As somebody whose kids' grandparents arrived here in the 1970s and have done far more to contribute to this country than all the knuckle dragging racists who carp on about immigrants: fuck you Boris Johnson.
    +1

    Johnson is a mendacious, disingenuous racist cowardly buffoon. Always has been as far as I concerned and always will be.

    The Tories will win the election and he will be our PM (in name only of course because I don't want someone like him representing me and I will not accept him as PM representing me).

    What really horrifies me is the large number of fanboys he has on this blog. All I can "Shame on you"!
    People here consistently play the moral high ground card with Johnson, they just seem so willing to argue away his own racism and his party’s racism.

    Both sides are cults now, it is genuinely concerning
  • Options

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnsons not Islamophobic. Have you got anything to suggest he is besides his article he wrote defending people's rights to wear the niqab when there was talk of that misogynistic garment being banned like it was in many liberal EU nations?
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,548
    edited December 2019

    ***Betting Post: Skybet combos***

    There are some very interesting combo offers on Skybet, well-hidden. These are the ones that caught my eye:

    Conservative Combo: 22/1 Conservatives to win all of Ashfield, Banff & Buchan, Kensington, Portsmouth South, Pudsey, St. Ives & Stoke Central. This is great value, it really is. Statisticians amongst us may disagree, but the Conservatives are "YouGov MRP" likely to take all of these seats at present *except* Stoke-on-Trent Central which is a toss-up, and Portsmouth South, which leans Labour.

    If that's wrong, and Labour tanks on election day, you get a smashing return here.

    Labour Combo: 10/3 Labour to win all of Cambridge, Canterbury, Cardiff North & Lincoln. At present, I'd say Labour are favourite (YouGov MRP) to take all of these. If you think Corbyn will hold onto his core demographic in Uni places regardless, this looks good.

    LD Combo: 10/3 LD to win all of Cheltenham, Lewes, St Albans & Winchester. This is probably my least favourite bet, but if the LDs do grasp all of their key targets this should pay off. I've only put a few quid on.

    Mixed Combo: 7/1 for Conservatives Lincoln, Derby North, Dewsbury, Wakefield & Wrexham, SNP Stirling & LDs Richmond Park. This also looks good. The only ones I'd be nervous about would be the Tories swiping Lincoln and the SNP Stirling. But, if they do, a tidy return.

    Expect to lose these (everything has to go right) but there's some great value if you get lucky. And I think Skybet have mispriced the Tory combo at 22/1. Should be 8/1 or similar.

    I would be concerned by the number of unforced errors by the Tory candidate in Ashfield (getting Cricked for C4N - everyone here loves that one for belly-laughs - wrt a fake supportive householder, the 'Labour camp' video, being Gloria's former office manager and a Lab Councillor, and I think there is a - speculative - anti-semitism allegation in the mix somewhere from the Corbyn-bots).

    There's also some racism stuff, which I think is trying to leverage his putting lumps of rock across a potential traveller camp entrance, and the then Lab iirc Council threatening action against their then Lab Councillor for flytipping. Everyone will support him on that one. Again, I think it is Corbyn-bots shitstirring. But that one is hazy.

    As Nick said - Asinine Ashfield politics.
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    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,541
    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1203963927341805568

    Dear God, another fuck up from a Labour candidate.

    “That makes him Jewish”

    Chilling.
    And, second to this revolting antisemitism but also awful, the assumption that everyone in the BBC ought as of right to be liberal/labour/left.

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    Mr. 86, why isn't Russia banned from the Euros in 2020?
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    RobD said:

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnson is persistently islamophobic?
    Yes. And so is his party. The fact you’re so willing to deny it just shows you’re as partisan as anyone on the Labour side.

    I want to go back to 1997 please
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    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    If the Tories do win a substantial majority, then there will be plenty of blame to go round.

    Corby, obviously, cops a lot of blame -- but also

    (i) The LibDems who really did precipitate the election. There is talk of Tory "hubris", but that word seems easier to hang round the necks of the LibDems. I always thought they might end up playing the role of the SNP in the 1979 election.

    (iv) The Labour Leavers who missed the boat, once, twice, three times, four times.

    seemed to consider that might lose leverage.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing - but history is history. What matters is the future. With a big parliamentary majority the Tories will own absolutely everything that happens from here on in. There will be no-one else to blame and nowhere to hide. That is undoubtedly a very good thing.

    If the majority is big enough then Boris will pivot to BINO and betray the ERG. Scorpion, frog, river, etc.
    Hopefully. A swift move to a temporary EEA/EFA, secure fishing rights, citizenship rights, etc. But only temporary, every year Parliament will renew this temporary agreement... Just like income tax.


    He'll then pivot to a sensible close post-Brexit relationship behind closed doors with them, and use his big majority to cushion the inevitable 20-40 Spartan rebels, once it's done. I expect that to be a fairly close arrangement. It's possible 2020 is used to agree the deal 'in principle' and the transition is extended into 2021 only for ratification, Walloon Parliament shenanigans etc.

    That's why, if I were him, I'd secretly be hoping for a majority of about 80+
    If Boris gets a big majority or any majority it is only coming from leave seats that have told those winning candidates that they are voting Tory to get brexit done. Those newly elected MP's are not going to commit political suicide by betraying the voters on Brexit. IMO they are far more likely to be "hard" brexiteers and will look to have a very visible Brexit that they can sell to their voters and "no trade" deal brexit is very sellable.
    I think you've got that wrong.

    Voters will be pragmatic on Brexit, provided it redresses regional imbalance, immigration and grants meaningful political independence from the EU.

    Fish will be the hardest bit, IMHO.
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    Breaking

    Russia banned from all global sport for four years

    Hmmm. Detente is getting further and further away.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,190

    Mr. 86, why isn't Russia banned from the Euros in 2020?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/50710598

    Despite the ban, Russia will be able to compete at Euro 2020 - in which St Petersburg will be a host city - as European football's governing body Uefa is not defined as a 'major event organisation' with regards to rulings on anti-doping breaches.
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    Cyclefree said:



    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    What despicable rhetoric .
    I wholeheartedly agree. Migrants treating Britain like their own country include people like my father who joined the RAF in 1939 to fight for this country and then worked as a doctor for many years until he died, people like my aunt who also joined up during the war and worked here all her life, people like my mother who came here and raised a family, people like the parents of my oldest friend who came here from Germany in the 1930’s, built a successful business and paid more inheritance tax when they died than they needed to because this country had given them a life and a home, people like Jerry in my team, a Pole who became a good investigator and took out British citizenship because he loved living here, people like my Irish cousin, a GP in Leeds running a busy and successful practice. And I could list many other relatives and friends who who have come here and live here and contribute because it is their home.

    And yes, all of them are bloody well entitled to treat it as their own because it is theirs, just as much as it is the country of those whose attachment to this country is contingent on how little tax they can get away with paying while lecturing the rest of us on patriotism.

    Give me strength.

    I think we have to hope that Johnson's words were indeed taken out of context. But talking about immigrants as "they" when they are, in fact, "we" is all part of the game these days. The automatic assumption is that immigrants are a burden to be tolerated at best, not our family members, our friends and our work colleagues. It is all very unfortunate.
    Boris is a known long-standing liberal on immigration, so I expect they were.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dr_spyn said:
    During the whole of the 1990s I can't remember the phrase "anti-Semitic" being used once in connection with any of the mainstream British political parties.
    Alan Clark's diaries contain pointed references to the "clipped cock brigade" but that was before antisemitism was bad.
    Yebbut Tories are supposed to be bigoted retired Navy types, sorry Colonels. It's Lab that are supposed to be the epitome of non-prejudiced operators.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,449
    edited December 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    PaulM said:

    Very perceptive piece from John Harriss today. The Tories will win because they offer an end to Brexit and because Labour is widely disliked and devoid of credibility. But then what? The Tories have no real offer, they present no solutions, just English nationalism and what Harriss terms Johnson's "meandering opportunism". At some point the right in this country is going to have to start thinking about the deep-seated problems and challenges the UK faces internally and as part of a rapidly-changing wider world. When is that going to happen and who is going to do it?

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/09/wins-tories-future-boris-johnson-victory-conservatism

    I think he is missing the point that the Conservatives don't actually need or want an offer to change the country. The primary aim is to stop Labour from changing the country. The clue is in the name "Conservative". Other than Brexit, meandering along and basically keeping things as is with some tweaks on the margins is ok for a large chunk of the UK electorate.
    They’re electing the wrong bloody party then. Brexit is going to mean one hell of a change for Britain.
    But there isn't a party standing for more of the same. There's either PM Johnson and Brexit and PM Corbyn supported by Sturgeon and Sindyref and Venezuela.
    And yes, there's the Lib Dems and revoke. But even if PM Swinson was an option - as I think you've said yourself in the past - revoke doesn't get us back to 2014. Aside from the domestic political ramifications of revoke and the European political ramifications of having a semi-willing UK back in the fray, the EU doesn't stay the same. The EU of today is very different to that of 1992, and that of 2030 will be very different to today.

    I quite liked 2014, I should add. But we can't go back there even if we wanted to; and nor could we have stayed there had we chosen differently.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205
    Endillion said:

    I see the left have retreated back to asserting that any politician who talks about immigration must automatically be racist. Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of whatever Johnson has actually said this time, I have to ask: do you people never learn? This attitude probably helped lose the 2010 election, the 2015 election and the EU referendum into the bargain. A new approach to addressing the point is badly needed.

    A number of us have suggested intelligent ways of addressing immigration on this forum over the years.

    There is nothing new however in insulting people who live here, work here and have made this country their home by saying or implying that they are freeloaders or have no right to be here. That is a technique which is as old as the hills and utterly nasty. It shows a lack of common human decency.
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    RobD said:

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnson is persistently islamophobic?
    More accurately when it suits him, like all the other things he is when it suits him.

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    If the Tories do win a substantial majority, then there will be plenty of blame to go round.

    Corby, obviously, cops a lot of blame -- but also

    (i) The LibDems who really did precipitate the election. There is talk of Tory "hubris", but that word seems easier to hang round the necks of the LibDems. I always thought they might end up playing the role of the SNP in the 1979 election.

    (iv) The Labour Leavers who missed the boat, once, twice, three times, four times.

    The Grievers were too busy with clever procedures to think more than a step ahead if the polls are right. Too focused on ultimate victory and so may see ultimate defeat. The labour leavers left it far too late and so dont reap the benefits of pragmatism as things are too raw when an on schedule election would have been easier.

    The DUP are just so focused on proving how tough they are that they never seemed to consider that might lose leverage.

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing - but history is history. What matters is the future. With a big parliamentary majority the Tories will own absolutely everything that happens from here on in. There will be no-one else to blame and nowhere to hide. That is undoubtedly a very good thing.

    If the majority is big enough then Boris will pivot to BINO and betray the ERG. Scorpion, frog, river, etc.
    Hopefully. A swift move to a temporary EEA/EFA, secure fishing rights, citizenship rights, etc. But only temporary, every year Parliament will renew this temporary agreement... Just like income tax.

    Boris's strategy - if he is fortunate enough to get a big majority - will be to use that to credibly threaten an alternative economic model in the event of No Deal in order to force some more practical concessions from the EU. The EU will be just as bad in threatening No Deal unless the UK submits to all of their demands, as their primary negotiating goal is (still) to make an example of the UK.

    He'll then pivot to a sensible close post-Brexit relationship behind closed doors with them, and use his big majority to cushion the inevitable 20-40 Spartan rebels, once it's done. I expect that to be a fairly close arrangement. It's possible 2020 is used to agree the deal 'in principle' and the transition is extended into 2021 only for ratification, Walloon Parliament shenanigans etc.

    That's why, if I were him, I'd secretly be hoping for a majority of about 80+
    Too much hassle for Boris. He'll go the path of least resistance. Which will rule out the option you describe.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2019

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnsons not Islamophobic. Have you got anything to suggest he is besides his article he wrote defending people's rights to wear the niqab when there was talk of that misogynistic garment being banned like it was in many liberal EU nations?
    Imagine thinking you know better than Muslim women, telling them what you think is best them. There were increases in attacks on Muslim women after that article was published and I think the Muslim community would know what is and isn’t Islamophobic. Replace Muslim women for Jews and you’d call me an anti-Semite. This is utterly pathetic.

    What Johnson did in that article is something as old as time. He subtlety encouraged discrimination under a blanket of non-discrimination. Anyone sensible can see it.

    Like I said, you vote for who you want to vote for. But don’t come here and play the anti-racism card. You don’t have a leg to stand on.
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    tlg86 said:

    Mr. 86, why isn't Russia banned from the Euros in 2020?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/50710598

    Despite the ban, Russia will be able to compete at Euro 2020 - in which St Petersburg will be a host city - as European football's governing body Uefa is not defined as a 'major event organisation' with regards to rulings on anti-doping breaches.
    You’d think UEFA will come under a lot of pressure though. And we should certainly bend it’s ear.
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    What cabinet changes do we expect if/when Boris gets his majority on Friday ?
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    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Labour undecided voter on Victoria Derbyshire saying she always voted Labour, but worried about if Corbyn is a security threat. Says doesnt know if Corbyn supports NATO.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    RobD said:

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnson is persistently islamophobic?
    Yes. And so is his party. The fact you’re so willing to deny it just shows you’re as partisan as anyone on the Labour side.

    I want to go back to 1997 please
    That’s quite a claim. I’m sure you have evidence of just how persistent this is then.
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    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    If the Tories do win a substantial majority, then there will be plenty of blame to go round.

    Corby, obviously, cops a lot of blame -- but also

    (i) The LibDems who really did precipitate the election. There is talk of Tory "hubris", but that word seems easier to hang round the necks of the LibDems. I always thought they might end up playing the role of the SNP in the 1979 election.

    (iv) The Labour Leavers who missed the boat, once, twice, three times, four times.

    The would have been easier.

    The DUP are just so focused on proving how tough they are that they never seemed to consider that might lose leverage.

    Hindsight thing.

    If the majority is big enough then Boris will pivot to BINO and betray the ERG. Scorpion, frog, river, etc.
    Hopefully. A swift move to a temporary EEA/EFA, secure fishing rights, citizenship rights, etc. But only temporary, every year Parliament will renew this temporary agreement... Just like income tax.

    Boris's strategy - if he is fortunate enough to get a big majority - will be to use that to credibly threaten an alternative economic model in the event of No Deal in order to force some more practical concessions from the EU. The EU will be just as bad in threatening No Deal unless the UK submits to all of their demands, as their primary negotiating goal is (still) to make an example of the UK.

    He'll then pivot to a sensible close post-Brexit relationship behind closed doors with them, and use his big majority to cushion the inevitable 20-40 Spartan rebels, once it's done. I expect that to be a fairly close arrangement. It's possible 2020 is used to agree the deal 'in principle' and the transition is extended into 2021 only for ratification, Walloon Parliament shenanigans etc.

    That's why, if I were him, I'd secretly be hoping for a majority of about 80+

    The alternative economic model that Johnson might threaten - and which is what Raab, Patel, Rees Mogg and co crave - is not one that could be sold in the UK, least of all in the Labour Leave seats that the Tories are set to win on Thursday. The negotiations are really goin to be about the UK setting its red lines and the EU saying this is what you can have as a result. Once that is sorted, the detailed talks will begin.

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    kjohnw1 said:

    What cabinet changes do we expect if/when Boris gets his majority on Friday ?

    Not much at all.
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    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    I'm quite surprised Labour isn't anti-Islam. It appears to be a conservative ideology that is opposed to gay rights and equality for women.
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    MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Re the Dan Hodges tweet re Cons breaking out in the NW, could be some good value bets in Labour pro-leave seats in Greater Manchester such as Denton and Reddish / Salford and Eccles (both above 10 on Betfair) / a bit less Worsley and Eccles South.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,636
    At least 11 members of the cabinet (or those who attend cabinet) have immigrant backgrounds of one sort or another: Johnson, Raab, Javid, Patel, Shapps, Sharma, Cleverly, Sunak, Kwarteng, McVey, Goldsmith.
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    kjohnw1 said:

    What cabinet changes do we expect if/when Boris gets his majority on Friday ?

    Promotion for Rishi Sunak.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,548
    TOPPING said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dr_spyn said:
    During the whole of the 1990s I can't remember the phrase "anti-Semitic" being used once in connection with any of the mainstream British political parties.
    Alan Clark's diaries contain pointed references to the "clipped cock brigade" but that was before antisemitism was bad.
    Yebbut Tories are supposed to be bigoted retired Navy types, sorry Colonels. It's Lab that are supposed to be the epitome of non-prejudiced operators.
    I thought we already had had Dominatrix Lib Dems, and Tories running a sex service. In the Black Country?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    Andy_JS said:
    I hope that's a misquotation as I do not respect that if true!

    Can't see article due to paywall.
    It's a mischaracterisation of what was actually said. It's actually about the idea of EU citizenship and giving migrants the same rights as citizens from day 1.
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    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnsons not Islamophobic. Have you got anything to suggest he is besides his article he wrote defending people's rights to wear the niqab when there was talk of that misogynistic garment being banned like it was in many liberal EU nations?
    Imagine thinking you know better than Muslim women, telling them what you think is best them. There were increases in attacks on Muslim women after that article was published and I think the Muslim community would know what is and isn’t Islamophobic. Replace Muslim women for Jews and you’d call me an anti-Semite. This is utterly pathetic.

    What Johnson did in that article is something as old as time. He subtlety encouraged discrimination under a blanket of non-discrimination. Anyone sensible can see it.

    Like I said, you vote for who you want to vote for. But don’t come here and play the anti-racism card. You don’t have a leg to stand on.

    Corbyn's Labour party is being investigated by the Equality & Human Rights Commission for alleged racism, the only other party subject to a similar investigation was the BNP!

    Your in great company,says it all.
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    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnsons not Islamophobic. Have you got anything to suggest he is besides his article he wrote defending people's rights to wear the niqab when there was talk of that misogynistic garment being banned like it was in many liberal EU nations?
    Imagine thinking you know better than Muslim women, telling them what you think is best them. There were increases in attacks on Muslim women after that article was published and I think the Muslim community would know what is and isn’t Islamophobic. Replace Muslim women for Jews and you’d call me an anti-Semite. This is utterly pathetic.

    What Johnson did in that article is something as old as time. He subtlety encouraged discrimination under a blanket of non-discrimination. Anyone sensible can see it.

    Like I said, you vote for who you want to vote for. But don’t come here and play the anti-racism card. You don’t have a leg to stand on.
    Have you read it?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/08/05/denmark-has-got-wrong-yes-burka-oppressive-ridiculous-still/

    It’s not that at all. Even if you have read it, I encourage others to click the link above. He was unwise to write this, as a politician, because our society is childish and it was always going to be turned on him, but it’s a good piece.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:


    He may be bright, and affable, but I don’t see much evidence of being tough and determined. Like Trump he is actually emotionally fragile. He hasn’t demonstrated prime ministerial maturity in dealing with those who challenge him, whether the grandees within his own party or Channel 4.

    He uses bluster and humour to wriggle out of ever being pinned down, and is an unprincipled opportunist of the first order. He is also lazy. And in less than a couple of months’ time pretty much the only principal and objective that he has championed will be ticked off, leaving him without an agenda and a mandate for nothing.

    None of these skills lend themselves to resolving the challenges that lie ahead. Almost the only skill he has that might suit him for high office is picking good people and his willingness to trust them to get on with things. But it’s a huge ask to get British government to work that way, and letting your colleagues get on with things in politics carries risk as well as reward.

    He is already the most unpopular new PM in polling history, and after Survation May be about to become the lead popular election winner ever. I fear we are in for years of turmoil.

    I agree completely , especially about his fragility and laziness, except for the part about mandate, which is one of those words that doesnt seem to mean anything.
    And another I agree.

    However, playing devil's advocate, IF (and its a terribly big IF) Johnson does pick a good team, it can work. I'm sure that Cameron ran his Cabinet like this (let ministers get on with it, and only intervene if needed) and I think it worked for Reagan in the US.

    Only problem is, so far, is that Johnson's picks for his top three are Javid (yesman), Raab (it's A-Okay for US citizens to kill British ones), and Patel (hang 'em and flog 'em).

    So it could work.... but it probably won't (as Ian correctly says).

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    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:
    I hope that's a misquotation as I do not respect that if true!

    Can't see article due to paywall.
    It's a mischaracterisation of what was actually said. It's actually about the idea of EU citizenship and giving migrants the same rights as citizens from day 1.
    Oh good! That's just logical.
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Cyclefree said:

    Endillion said:

    I see the left have retreated back to asserting that any politician who talks about immigration must automatically be racist. Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of whatever Johnson has actually said this time, I have to ask: do you people never learn? This attitude probably helped lose the 2010 election, the 2015 election and the EU referendum into the bargain. A new approach to addressing the point is badly needed.

    A number of us have suggested intelligent ways of addressing immigration on this forum over the years.

    There is nothing new however in insulting people who live here, work here and have made this country their home by saying or implying that they are freeloaders or have no right to be here. That is a technique which is as old as the hills and utterly nasty. It shows a lack of common human decency.
    Mr Johnson said: “I think people want to see democratic control. I don’t think people in this country are hostile to immigration at all, let alone being hostile to immigrants, but they want it democratically controlled and that’s what Brexit allows us to do.”

    He isn't saying any of the things you accuse him of. He's just saying, in slightly longer words, that he opposes freedom of movement with the EU. At no stage has he suggested any form of attack on individuals who have already moved here and are contributing to society.
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    kjohnw1 said:

    What cabinet changes do we expect if/when Boris gets his majority on Friday ?

    Is Malthouse standing? I’d look for his Mayoral team to start to push aside Vote Leave.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,636

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnsons not Islamophobic. Have you got anything to suggest he is besides his article he wrote defending people's rights to wear the niqab when there was talk of that misogynistic garment being banned like it was in many liberal EU nations?
    Imagine thinking you know better than Muslim women, telling them what you think is best them. There were increases in attacks on Muslim women after that article was published and I think the Muslim community would know what is and isn’t Islamophobic. Replace Muslim women for Jews and you’d call me an anti-Semite. This is utterly pathetic.

    What Johnson did in that article is something as old as time. He subtlety encouraged discrimination under a blanket of non-discrimination. Anyone sensible can see it.

    Like I said, you vote for who you want to vote for. But don’t come here and play the anti-racism card. You don’t have a leg to stand on.
    Have you criticised those European countries that have already banned it?
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    kjohnw1 said:

    What cabinet changes do we expect if/when Boris gets his majority on Friday ?

    Promotion for Rishi Sunak.
    Why? All the charisma and quick wittedness of the speaking clock, judging by his debate performances.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    felix said:

    moonshine said:

    Absolutely despicable comments from Johnson this morning. Those is not the kind of country I live in.

    Was this not a quote from his interview on Sky on Sunday?
    Either way, it’s despicable.

    I notice he made no comment of the mini England Brits have made in Spain, with their English only speaking Daily Mail reading population where Spanish people avoid
    I live in Spain - speak moderately good Spanish and mix with the locals. As Manuel would say you really "know nothing". There may be some Brits abroad like that as there are the equivalent in parts of the UK - the latter of which I presume you condemn also - Bengalis in Tower Hamlets, Hindus in Southall.......

    Felix, it's a bit silly pretending there are not a large number of UK ex-pats in Spain that have next to no knowledge of Spanish, who mix almost exclusively with other ex-pats and who have absolutely no interest in Spain beyond the weather. Not all are like that, of course, but many are. It stands to reason - they have not gone to build new lives in Spain as young people - as most EU immigrants into the UK do - but to retire there.

    I didn't pretend that - I notice you fail to comment on the rest of my post - but there are lots where I live who do try to learn Spanish and who certainly do not live exclusively a Brit abroad lifestyle. Of course I'm neither in Blanca or Del Sol.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,636
    Cyclefree said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dr_spyn said:
    During the whole of the 1990s I can't remember the phrase "anti-Semitic" being used once in connection with any of the mainstream British political parties.
    In those days you just had Tory icons - who remain icons for some Tories - like Enoch Powell being genuine and thoroughgoing, bona fide antisemitic loons. He died around 1998.
    There was more than a whiff of old-fashioned English anti-semitism in some of the reaction to some of the people in Thatcher’s Cabinet (Leon Britton, for instance) and MacMillan’s reference to there being “more old Estonians than old Etonians” for instance. Thatcher herself was pretty pro-Jewish. It certainly was not the issue it has become today.
    Yes, Mrs Thatcher was a big fan of traditional Jewish values. Of course being MP for Finchley made that a likely position for her to develop over the years.
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    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    The electorate will be the best judge of that - they consider your party to be the racist one, hence you're going to lose!
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    Andy_JS said:

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnsons not Islamophobic. Have you got anything to suggest he is besides his article he wrote defending people's rights to wear the niqab when there was talk of that misogynistic garment being banned like it was in many liberal EU nations?
    Imagine thinking you know better than Muslim women, telling them what you think is best them. There were increases in attacks on Muslim women after that article was published and I think the Muslim community would know what is and isn’t Islamophobic. Replace Muslim women for Jews and you’d call me an anti-Semite. This is utterly pathetic.

    What Johnson did in that article is something as old as time. He subtlety encouraged discrimination under a blanket of non-discrimination. Anyone sensible can see it.

    Like I said, you vote for who you want to vote for. But don’t come here and play the anti-racism card. You don’t have a leg to stand on.
    Have you criticised those European countries that have already banned it?
    Im visualising an army of 83yr old telegraph readers going out and attacking muslims in burkhas. I'll file it into "things that didnt happen".
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    Endillion said:

    I see the left have retreated back to asserting that any politician who talks about immigration must automatically be racist. Leaving aside the rights and wrongs of whatever Johnson has actually said this time, I have to ask: do you people never learn? This attitude probably helped lose the 2010 election, the 2015 election and the EU referendum into the bargain. A new approach to addressing the point is badly needed.


    Spot on, under Blair / Brown anyone that had the audacity to say we are getting a tad overcrowded on this small island was immediately slapped down as a racist, which was a very effective form of censorship.No debate allowed.

    It worked for a while & then the lid came off the pressure cooker in 2016.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708
    alb1on said:

    Best bet of the day is arbitrage on Southport. Conservatives at 2/5 with Betway, Labour at 5/1 with various companies. Assuming you rule out the LDs here (as the constituency poll showed) it is free money with the only issue being able to get enough on (although you can also get 1/3 about the Conservatives from many companies).

    Shame about the LD in Southport. At the start of the campaign, most had it as a Con-LD battle. That they've now dropped away means they'll probably never recover their only (formerly held) Merseyside seat.
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    Matthew Goodwin

    Boris Johnson & the Conservative Party have led in every single poll since #ge2019 was called

    That did not happen in 2017. Or 2015. Or 2010 when Cleggmania briefly dethroned Cameron

    The last time one party dominated the polls to this extent was 2005, with Blair & New Labour
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    MaxPB said:

    Andy_JS said:
    I hope that's a misquotation as I do not respect that if true!

    Can't see article due to paywall.
    It's a mischaracterisation of what was actually said. It's actually about the idea of EU citizenship and giving migrants the same rights as citizens from day 1.
    Oh good! That's just logical.
    The headline is misleading. The direct quote, in the first paragraph of the article, is EU migrants "treat[ing] the UK as if it's part of their own country". A slightly different matter to the headline which implies that he said that migrants shouldn't be able to treat the UK as home.
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    RobD said:

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnson is persistently islamophobic?
    Yes. And so is his party. The fact you’re so willing to deny it just shows you’re as partisan as anyone on the Labour side.

    I want to go back to 1997 please
    When the Labour party ran with a moderate, centrist leadership instead of the extremist you support? Yes, many of us would want that very much.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    edited December 2019
    alb1on said:

    Best bet of the day is arbitrage on Southport. Conservatives at 2/5 with Betway, Labour at 5/1 with various companies. Assuming you rule out the LDs here (as the constituency poll showed) it is free money with the only issue being able to get enough on (although you can also get 1/3 about the Conservatives from many companies).

    There was a similar opportunity in Watford and may still be. Tory most likely, Labour maybe just possible as it's 'the south'.

    Are the Labour odds in Hastings tempting? I thought maybe at the w.e but they've since lengthened 3.0->3.25. No bet for me, although it's a new Tory candidate with no incumbency benefit.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Andy_JS said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dr_spyn said:
    During the whole of the 1990s I can't remember the phrase "anti-Semitic" being used once in connection with any of the mainstream British political parties.
    In those days you just had Tory icons - who remain icons for some Tories - like Enoch Powell being genuine and thoroughgoing, bona fide antisemitic loons. He died around 1998.
    There was more than a whiff of old-fashioned English anti-semitism in some of the reaction to some of the people in Thatcher’s Cabinet (Leon Britton, for instance) and MacMillan’s reference to there being “more old Estonians than old Etonians” for instance. Thatcher herself was pretty pro-Jewish. It certainly was not the issue it has become today.
    Yes, Mrs Thatcher was a big fan of traditional Jewish values. Of course being MP for Finchley made that a likely position for her to develop over the years.
    What's your prediction for Thursday?

    You've been very good at predictions in the past :)
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,205

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    I'm quite surprised Labour isn't anti-Islam. It appears to be a conservative ideology that is opposed to gay rights and equality for women.
    You’re mistakenly assuming that there is any real attachment to the principles of equality. Labour are only interested in using a claim of belief in equality as a way of getting votes. Once they have the votes of the target group, job done. Then they move on to the next target group.

    Any glaring contradictions - such as the ones you have outlined - are simply ignored or dismissed by labelling those raising them as racist or islamophobic.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,636
    edited December 2019
    Fenster said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dr_spyn said:
    During the whole of the 1990s I can't remember the phrase "anti-Semitic" being used once in connection with any of the mainstream British political parties.
    In those days you just had Tory icons - who remain icons for some Tories - like Enoch Powell being genuine and thoroughgoing, bona fide antisemitic loons. He died around 1998.
    There was more than a whiff of old-fashioned English anti-semitism in some of the reaction to some of the people in Thatcher’s Cabinet (Leon Britton, for instance) and MacMillan’s reference to there being “more old Estonians than old Etonians” for instance. Thatcher herself was pretty pro-Jewish. It certainly was not the issue it has become today.
    Yes, Mrs Thatcher was a big fan of traditional Jewish values. Of course being MP for Finchley made that a likely position for her to develop over the years.
    What's your prediction for Thursday?

    You've been very good at predictions in the past :)
    I'm waiting for the YouGov MRP. This is the most difficult election to predict how the national shares will translate into seats. It's possible parties are piling up votes in their safe seats in a way that isn't usual, for instance.
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/paulhutcheon/status/1203963927341805568

    Dear God, another fuck up from a Labour candidate.

    “That makes him Jewish”

    Chilling.
    She claims not to have read that bit - 'present but not involved maybe?'
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dr_spyn said:
    During the whole of the 1990s I can't remember the phrase "anti-Semitic" being used once in connection with any of the mainstream British political parties.
    In those days you just had Tory icons - who remain icons for some Tories - like Enoch Powell being genuine and thoroughgoing, bona fide antisemitic loons. He died around 1998.
    There was more than a whiff of old-fashioned English anti-semitism in some of the reaction to some of the people in Thatcher’s Cabinet (Leon Britton, for instance) and MacMillan’s reference to there being “more old Estonians than old Etonians” for instance. Thatcher herself was pretty pro-Jewish. It certainly was not the issue it has become today.
    Yes, Mrs Thatcher was a big fan of traditional Jewish values. Of course being MP for Finchley made that a likely position for her to develop over the years.
    In the mid-century, Jewish values were split between traditional pragmatism and radicalism. It was a bogeyman of the dangerous Jewish Red that the Daily Mail tried to conjure up with its Ralph Miliband coverage. Now it sits in righteousness and sermonises about anti-semitism.
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    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnsons not Islamophobic. Have you got anything to suggest he is besides his article he wrote defending people's rights to wear the niqab when there was talk of that misogynistic garment being banned like it was in many liberal EU nations?
    Imagine thinking you know better than Muslim women, telling them what you think is best them. There were increases in attacks on Muslim women after that article was published and I think the Muslim community would know what is and isn’t Islamophobic. Replace Muslim women for Jews and you’d call me an anti-Semite. This is utterly pathetic.

    What Johnson did in that article is something as old as time. He subtlety encouraged discrimination under a blanket of non-discrimination. Anyone sensible can see it.

    Like I said, you vote for who you want to vote for. But don’t come here and play the anti-racism card. You don’t have a leg to stand on.
    I'm sorry but that's bullshit. Firstly the niqab is a misogynistic garment that isn't Islam it is extremist material. There are over a billion Muslims worldwide who don't wear the niqab and I find it Islamophobic to try and conflate the niqab with Islam. Are you so Islamophobic that you think Muslim = niqab?

    Secondly it isn't Boris who was saying what couldn't be done. It was France 🇫🇷 , Sweden 🇸🇪, the Netherlands 🇳🇱 and more which banned the niqab something that Johnson was arguing against. Are you saying France, Sweden and the Netherlands are Islamophobic? If so why are we meant to be in a political union with them?
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    Strange reading the Survation this morning.

    I simply do not believe that the Tories are 14 points ahead. That would require one out of every 8 Labour voters to now be voting Tory.

    And if Survation are talking rubbish, then what's to stop them being 10 points off rather than 5?
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    Whatabout whatabout whatabout is all you have, it’s pathetic.

    You cannot take the moral high ground on racism and vote Tory. You just can’t.

    If you vote for them anyway, fine but don’t pretend it’s an anti-racism vote.

    Neither is a vote for Labour.

    A true anti-racist vote seems to be for any party other than the main two. I’m happy to say I’m a hypocrite (even though I’m tactically voting LD) but I doubt many others are.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,974
    Alistair said:

    Interesting thing about that Panelbase Scotland poll that was out.

    In my model, on high turnout (71%) SLab hold onto all but one of their seats, Cons only lose 1. Lib Dems retain all but gain nothing. So the SNP only get to 37.

    On low turnout (64%) Lab still manage to retain East Lothian as well as Ed South but Cons hold everything. SNP get to 40 seats.

    Be a disaster on either of those numbers, hard to see them being that low.
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    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    If the Tories do win a substantial majority, then there will be plenty of blame to go round.

    Corby, obviously, cops a lot of blame -- but also

    (i) The LibDems who really did precipitate the election. There is talk of Tory "hubris", but that word seems easier to hang round the necks of the LibDems. I always thought they might end up playing the role of the SNP in the 1979 election.

    (iv) The Labour Leavers who missed the boat, once, twice, three times, four times.

    The would have been easier.

    The DUP are just so focused on proving how tough they are that they never seemed to consider that might lose leverage.

    Hindsight thing.

    If the majority is big enough then Boris will pivot to BINO and betray the ERG. Scorpion, frog, river, etc.
    Hopefully. A swift move to a temporary EEA/EFA, secure fishing rights, citizenship rights, etc. But only temporary, every year Parliament will renew this temporary agreement... Just like income tax.

    Boris's strategy - if he is fortunate enough to get a big majority - will be to use that to credibly threaten an alternative economic model in the event of No Deal in order to force some more practical concessions from the EU. The EU will be just as bad in threatening No Deal unless the UK submits to all of their demands, as their primary negotiating goal is (still) to make an example of the UK.

    He'll then pivot to a sensible close post-Brexit relationship behind closed doors with them, and use his big majority to cushion the inevitable 20-40 Spartan rebels, once it's done. I expect that to be a fairly close arrangement. It's possible 2020 is used to agree the deal 'in principle' and the transition is extended into 2021 only for ratification, Walloon Parliament shenanigans etc.

    That's why, if I were him, I'd secretly be hoping for a majority of about 80+

    The alternative economic model that Johnson might threaten - and which is what Raab, Patel, Rees Mogg and co crave - is not one that could be sold in the UK, least of all in the Labour Leave seats that the Tories are set to win on Thursday. The negotiations are really goin to be about the UK setting its red lines and the EU saying this is what you can have as a result. Once that is sorted, the detailed talks will begin.

    No, as I've said before the UK does have negotiating weight in this. It's not 0/100 to the EU in the EU's favour, and nor is it 3.5/96.5 (28/1) in the EU's favour.

    It's more like 2:1 or 3:1, depending on the issue concerned.

    Therefore, there will be concessions both ways.
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    BluerBlueBluerBlue Posts: 521
    edited December 2019

    Whatabout whatabout whatabout is all you have, it’s pathetic.

    You cannot take the moral high ground on racism and vote Tory. You just can’t.

    If you vote for them anyway, fine but don’t pretend it’s an anti-racism vote.

    Neither is a vote for Labour.

    A true anti-racist vote seems to be for any party other than the main two. I’m happy to say I’m a hypocrite (even though I’m tactically voting LD) but I doubt many others are.

    Says the master of whataboutery! :lol:

    Face it, Corbynite Labour has been found out. The voters see what it is, and their judgement does not look pretty.

    Nice to see Survation "closing the lead", eh?
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    melcfmelcf Posts: 166

    Cyclefree said:



    nico67 said:

    Andy_JS said:
    What despicable rhetoric .
    I wholeheartedly agree. Migrants treating Britain like their own country include people like my father who joined the RAF in 1939 to fight for this country and then worked as a doctor for many years until he died, people like my aunt who also joined up during the war and worked here all her life, people like my mother who came here and raised a family, people like the parents of my oldest friend who came here from Germany in the 1930’s, built a successful business and paid more inheritance tax when they died than they needed to because this country had given them a life and a home, people like Jerry in my team, a Pole who became a good investigator and took out British citizenship because he loved living here, people like my Irish cousin, a GP in Leeds running a busy and successful practice. And I could list many other relatives and friends who who have come here and live here and contribute because it is their home.

    And yes, all of them are bloody well entitled to treat it as their own because it is theirs, just as much as it is the country of those whose attachment to this country is contingent on how little tax they can get away with paying while lecturing the rest of us on patriotism.

    Give me strength.

    I think we have to hope that Johnson's words were indeed taken out of context. But talking about immigrants as "they" when they are, in fact, "we" is all part of the game these days. The automatic assumption is that immigrants are a burden to be tolerated at best, not our family members, our friends and our work colleagues. It is all very unfortunate.
    Boris is a known long-standing liberal on immigration, so I expect they were.
    The only thing Bojo is liberal about is the use of his dk. Rest all depends on if he directly profits or not. Absolutely no morals involved, some leader.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    edited December 2019

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    I'm quite surprised Labour isn't anti-Islam. It appears to be a conservative ideology that is opposed to gay rights and equality for women.

    Nicely pointing out the contortions the left has to put itself through to justify itself

    You could add anti semitism to that list
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    Strange reading the Survation this morning.

    I simply do not believe that the Tories are 14 points ahead. That would require one out of every 8 Labour voters to now be voting Tory.

    And if Survation are talking rubbish, then what's to stop them being 10 points off rather than 5?

    We won’t know until polling day. But this just seems like a poll we don’t like so it’s wrong.

    I blooming hope they’re wrong. I will be very sad if Johnson wins.

    But if he does, Labour needs to do a lot of introspection and work out exactly what has gone wrong. That means dumping Corbyn straight away and starting afresh.

    But in that case I’ll be a bystander. I don’t have the energy to be involved anymore.
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnsons not Islamophobic. Have you got anything to suggest he is besides his article he wrote defending people's rights to wear the niqab when there was talk of that misogynistic garment being banned like it was in many liberal EU nations?
    He said "Islam is the problem", that it was natural to be afraid of Islam, and described Islam as "the most viciously sectarian of all religions in its heartlessness towards unbelievers".
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2005/07/just-dont-call-it-war/
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    Yes of course, but that doesn't mean I want Johnson either.

    Obviously, it has to be laughed at, but I'd rather Prime Minister Swinson or Prime Minister Berry than either of those two muppets.

    (In theory, Prime Minister Farage is doable, as head of a minority government, but he's no more winning all 287 of his seats than Swinson is in winning 330 of her 611. And I don't want Prime Minister Farage either)
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,636

    Strange reading the Survation this morning.

    I simply do not believe that the Tories are 14 points ahead. That would require one out of every 8 Labour voters to now be voting Tory.

    And if Survation are talking rubbish, then what's to stop them being 10 points off rather than 5?

    We won’t know until polling day. But this just seems like a poll we don’t like so it’s wrong.

    I blooming hope they’re wrong. I will be very sad if Johnson wins.

    But if he does, Labour needs to do a lot of introspection and work out exactly what has gone wrong. That means dumping Corbyn straight away and starting afresh.

    But in that case I’ll be a bystander. I don’t have the energy to be involved anymore.
    It's simple. Most voters are in the centre, and Labour have decided to be very left-wing at the moment. Imagine if John Redwood was leading the Tories.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967

    Whatabout whatabout whatabout is all you have, it’s pathetic.

    You cannot take the moral high ground on racism and vote Tory. You just can’t.

    If you vote for them anyway, fine but don’t pretend it’s an anti-racism vote.

    Neither is a vote for Labour.

    A true anti-racist vote seems to be for any party other than the main two. I’m happy to say I’m a hypocrite (even though I’m tactically voting LD) but I doubt many others are.

    If you are going to claim someone is a persistent islamophobe, at least have the evidence to back it up.
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    Floater said:
    I was thinking of doing the White Nights marathon in St Petersburg next year, hope UK Athletics doesn't ban me!
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    Whatabout whatabout whatabout is all you have, it’s pathetic.

    You cannot take the moral high ground on racism and vote Tory. You just can’t.

    If you vote for them anyway, fine but don’t pretend it’s an anti-racism vote.

    Neither is a vote for Labour.

    A true anti-racist vote seems to be for any party other than the main two. I’m happy to say I’m a hypocrite (even though I’m tactically voting LD) but I doubt many others are.

    I'm voting tory as its the least worst choice that keeps your disgusting , lunatic party from power.

    It really is that simple for a lot of us.

    I was out with my brother yesterday, over dinner last night he (life time Labour supporter) said I have to sit this one out - I can't vote for Corbyn.

    Prepare for a bad night on Thursday
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    Someone will trot out the jew in the Reichstag trope before long to hammer home the point. I wonder who?
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Andy_JS said:

    Fenster said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Andy_JS said:

    dr_spyn said:
    During the whole of the 1990s I can't remember the phrase "anti-Semitic" being used once in connection with any of the mainstream British political parties.
    In those days you just had Tory icons - who remain icons for some Tories - like Enoch Powell being genuine and thoroughgoing, bona fide antisemitic loons. He died around 1998.
    There was more than a whiff of old-fashioned English anti-semitism in some of the reaction to some of the people in Thatcher’s Cabinet (Leon Britton, for instance) and MacMillan’s reference to there being “more old Estonians than old Etonians” for instance. Thatcher herself was pretty pro-Jewish. It certainly was not the issue it has become today.
    Yes, Mrs Thatcher was a big fan of traditional Jewish values. Of course being MP for Finchley made that a likely position for her to develop over the years.
    What's your prediction for Thursday?

    You've been very good at predictions in the past :)
    I'm waiting for the YouGov MRP. This is the most difficult election to predict how the national shares will translate into seats. It's possible parties are piling up votes in their safe seats in a way that isn't usual, for instance.
    Okay thank you!
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    Andy_JS said:

    Strange reading the Survation this morning.

    I simply do not believe that the Tories are 14 points ahead. That would require one out of every 8 Labour voters to now be voting Tory.

    And if Survation are talking rubbish, then what's to stop them being 10 points off rather than 5?

    We won’t know until polling day. But this just seems like a poll we don’t like so it’s wrong.

    I blooming hope they’re wrong. I will be very sad if Johnson wins.

    But if he does, Labour needs to do a lot of introspection and work out exactly what has gone wrong. That means dumping Corbyn straight away and starting afresh.

    But in that case I’ll be a bystander. I don’t have the energy to be involved anymore.
    It's simple. Most voters are in the centre, and Labour have decided to be very left-wing at the moment. Imagine if John Redwood was leading the Tories.
    Or Nigel Farage..

    Wait a minute..
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    StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    I'm quite surprised Labour isn't anti-Islam. It appears to be a conservative ideology that is opposed to gay rights and equality for women.

    Nicely pointing out the contortions the left has to put itself through to justify itself

    You could add anti semitism to that list
    More casual PB Islamophobia
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Who likes incredible data viz. A whole thread of great viz

    https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1203964749802803200?s=19
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    DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    The weather forecast has firmed up and Thursday is forecast to be very wet, I've checked forecasts for most parts of Britain and it appears to be raining everywhere, all day. Some of the rain will be showery so there will be some gaps but it won't be dry anywhere.

    This will reduce turnout, but it's harder to say if any party will benefit, it use to said that rain helped the Tories and it may still do so but I don't think it does so much these days.

    It's also Winter, which will only exacerbate people's reluctance to venture out on polling day.

    I think turnout will be lower than previously thought and people planning to vote tactically could be to most likely to not bother.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,967
    edited December 2019
    Alistair said:

    Who likes incredible data viz. A whole thread of great viz

    https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1203964749802803200?s=19

    I’m in heaven.

    1997 LOL
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    Andy_JS said:

    Strange reading the Survation this morning.

    I simply do not believe that the Tories are 14 points ahead. That would require one out of every 8 Labour voters to now be voting Tory.

    And if Survation are talking rubbish, then what's to stop them being 10 points off rather than 5?

    We won’t know until polling day. But this just seems like a poll we don’t like so it’s wrong.

    I blooming hope they’re wrong. I will be very sad if Johnson wins.

    But if he does, Labour needs to do a lot of introspection and work out exactly what has gone wrong. That means dumping Corbyn straight away and starting afresh.

    But in that case I’ll be a bystander. I don’t have the energy to be involved anymore.
    It's simple. Most voters are in the centre, and Labour have decided to be very left-wing at the moment. Imagine if John Redwood was leading the Tories.
    Instead of someone who is implementing John Redwood's policy agenda?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,937
    edited December 2019

    Dura_Ace said:

    kle4 said:

    If the Tories do win a substantial majority, then there will be plenty of blame to go round.

    Corby, obviously, cops a lot of blame -- but also

    (i) The LibDems who really did precipitate the election. There is talk of Tory "hubris", but that word seems easier to hang round the necks of the LibDems. I always thought they might end up playing the role of the SNP in the 1979 election.

    (iv) The Labour Leavers who missed the boat, once, twice, three times, four times.

    The would have been easier.

    The DUP are just so focused on proving how tough they are that they never seemed to consider that might lose leverage.

    Hindsight thing.

    If the majority is big enough then Boris will pivot to BINO and betray the ERG. Scorpion, frog, river, etc.
    Hopefully. A swift move to a temporary EEA/EFA, secure fishing rights, citizenship rights, etc. But only temporary, every year Parliament will renew this temporary agreement... Just like income tax.

    Boris's UK.

    He'll etc.

    That's why, if I were him, I'd secretly be hoping for a majority of about 80+

    The alternative economic model that Johnson might threaten - and which is what Raab, Patel, Rees Mogg and co crave - is not one that could be sold in the UK, least of all in the Labour Leave seats that the Tories are set to win on Thursday. The negotiations are really goin to be about the UK setting its red lines and the EU saying this is what you can have as a result. Once that is sorted, the detailed talks will begin.

    No, as I've said before the UK does have negotiating weight in this. It's not 0/100 to the EU in the EU's favour, and nor is it 3.5/96.5 (28/1) in the EU's favour.

    It's more like 2:1 or 3:1, depending on the issue concerned.

    Therefore, there will be concessions both ways.

    The UK will decide what kind of deal it wants by fixing its red lines, the EU will then set the parameters, there will be back and forth on the detail with the UK getting some concessions. The tough bit will be the first part - we will need to recognise and accept that in setting certain red lines we will be excluding ourselves from certain important advantages. Basically, it will be a repeat of the last three years, but hopefully with the actual withdrawal detoxifying things somewhat. One thing the UK needs to get a much better understanding of is about how the EU works and what its motivations are. Preserving the integrity of the Single Market is the number one concern. The EU will not compromise on that.
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    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Strange reading the Survation this morning.

    I simply do not believe that the Tories are 14 points ahead. That would require one out of every 8 Labour voters to now be voting Tory.

    And if Survation are talking rubbish, then what's to stop them being 10 points off rather than 5?

    What if you're the one talking rubbish?
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,548
    rkrkrk said:

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnsons not Islamophobic. Have you got anything to suggest he is besides his article he wrote defending people's rights to wear the niqab when there was talk of that misogynistic garment being banned like it was in many liberal EU nations?
    He said "Islam is the problem", that it was natural to be afraid of Islam, and described Islam as "the most viciously sectarian of all religions in its heartlessness towards unbelievers".
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2005/07/just-dont-call-it-war/
    Quit cherrypicked, those quotes.

    Recommend commenters read the article.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,981
    Fenster said:

    Andy_JS said:



    I'm waiting for the YouGov MRP. This is the most difficult election to predict how the national shares will translate into seats. It's possible parties are piling up votes in their safe seats in a way that isn't usual, for instance.

    Okay thank you!
    I'm not even sure the MRP will be that good this time around. The viewpoint of a C2DE voter in London where work is available may be very different from one up in Barnsley.
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,934
    edited December 2019
    Very blunt WhatsApp conversation with Labour candidate in key Tory target this morning.

    “How’s it all going?”

    “Shit.”

    Pretty tough out there for Labour candidates in leave seats 😬

    #GE2019

    From Paul Brand ITV
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    rkrkrk said:

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnsons not Islamophobic. Have you got anything to suggest he is besides his article he wrote defending people's rights to wear the niqab when there was talk of that misogynistic garment being banned like it was in many liberal EU nations?
    He said "Islam is the problem", that it was natural to be afraid of Islam, and described Islam as "the most viciously sectarian of all religions in its heartlessness towards unbelievers".
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2005/07/just-dont-call-it-war/
    So? Islam is an ideology, it is quite reasonable to be opposed to it, and in particular those strands of it that support terror.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,304
    Floater said:

    Whatabout whatabout whatabout is all you have, it’s pathetic.

    You cannot take the moral high ground on racism and vote Tory. You just can’t.

    If you vote for them anyway, fine but don’t pretend it’s an anti-racism vote.

    Neither is a vote for Labour.

    A true anti-racist vote seems to be for any party other than the main two. I’m happy to say I’m a hypocrite (even though I’m tactically voting LD) but I doubt many others are.

    I'm voting tory as its the least worst choice that keeps your disgusting , lunatic party from power.

    It really is that simple for a lot of us.

    I was out with my brother yesterday, over dinner last night he (life time Labour supporter) said I have to sit this one out - I can't vote for Corbyn.

    Prepare for a bad night on Thursday
    = not rocket science.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,636
    DeClare said:

    The weather forecast has firmed up and Thursday is forecast to be very wet, I've checked forecasts for most parts of Britain and it appears to be raining everywhere, all day. Some of the rain will be showery so there will be some gaps but it won't be dry anywhere.

    This will reduce turnout, but it's harder to say if any party will benefit, it use to said that rain helped the Tories and it may still do so but I don't think it does so much these days.

    It's also Winter, which will only exacerbate people's reluctance to venture out on polling day.

    I think turnout will be lower than previously thought and people planning to vote tactically could be to most likely to not bother.

    Why would rain reduce turnout? People of all ages have been braving the rain in Britain for thousands of years without too much trouble.
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    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,708
    kjohnw1 said:

    What cabinet changes do we expect if/when Boris gets his majority on Friday ?

    All of them?

    "Cripes! I won! Wouldn't you know it! Unfortunately I'm not really good at this 'government' malarky and nor is anyone else in my party now. Far prefer HIGNFY, which I'm off to do right now. 350 by-elections coming your way for the laughs, and I'm afraid that nice Mr. Corbyn... oh cripes? He resigned too! Oh well. Perhaps that nice Mr. McDonnell can steer the ship for a bit. I'm off.... tally-ho!"
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    What’s the thinking on having John McD give a lacklustre speech in Vauxhall right now?
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    No Islamophobia in the Tory ranks?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-50398826
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    rkrkrk said:

    Boris Johnson is pro immigrant when it suits him and anti when it suits him. A man of literally no principles whatsoever, an utter disgrace.

    Better than Corbyn and his followers who are consistently antisemitic.
    This again? Johnson and his follows are persistently Islamophobic and two of his candidates have been investigated for anti-Semitism. Don’t try and play the moral high ground card, you support a racist party and you’re a hypocrite.
    Johnsons not Islamophobic. Have you got anything to suggest he is besides his article he wrote defending people's rights to wear the niqab when there was talk of that misogynistic garment being banned like it was in many liberal EU nations?
    He said "Islam is the problem", that it was natural to be afraid of Islam, and described Islam as "the most viciously sectarian of all religions in its heartlessness towards unbelievers".
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2005/07/just-dont-call-it-war/
    Kemal Ataturk would have said much the same.
This discussion has been closed.