It amuses me that Matt Hancock has been sent to the hospital. What’s he going to do? A four year old slept on some coats, presumably because it was more comfy than the chair. It happens. Our society, and in particular our media, are endlessly childish.
There are lots of issues to discuss in the NHS. This isn’t one of them.
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
I disagree actually. I was expecting her to be a bit poor but she has been abysmal. Interestingly I was at a large lunch party yesterday where I chatted to a number of different people, and inevitably the election came up since some of those I was talking to know that I 'invest' in the political betting markets. Even I was surprised at how negative the perceptions of Jo Swinson were - these are well-off mostly retired people in a Tory seat but mostly Remainers and potential or actual LibDem voters.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.
Is the Nabavi X now hovering grumpily towards the blue box?
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
I disagree actually. I was expecting her to be a bit poor but she has been abysmal. Interestingly I was at a large lunch party yesterday where I chatted to a number of different people, and inevitably the election came up since some of those I was talking to know that I 'invest' in the political betting markets. Even I was surprised at how negative the perceptions of Jo Swinson were - these are well-off mostly retired people in a Tory seat but mostly Remainers and potential or actual LibDem voters.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.
With hindsight an interesting strategy for them would be to almost have ignored Brexit. Say you know where we stand on that but we have much more to us than just Brexit. Talk mainly about the environment, education and a positive vision of Britains future in the world.
yes, damned shame they didn't. Combined with main parties not fit to govern. Too many politicians are influenced by froth in the social media bubbles.
Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
That seems to be the final Conservative card on YouTube and other social media outlets. It's absurd because no one votes FOR a Hung Parliament - it's an accident of electoral arithmetic.
It actually smacks of desperation and the truth is without a majority the Conservatives are the "Billy NoMates" of politics and if they are short of 323 by any amount they will be in serious trouble,
Not as much trouble as the country as a whole. Whether you like it or note everything that Byronic lists there will come to pass if we have a hung Parliament., And a whole lot more shit as well.
Whereas Brexit will go smoothly and without a hitch and we should ignore the apocalyptic warnings of the Labour Conservative government because Tories are habitual ... oh, hold on.
Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.
The Gogglebox critique was that she looks like the kind of person that would come over to you when you are standing at the bar at a party and demand that you dance
Thinking aloud; I'm wondering whether the existence of the Yougov MRP, and the belief in it, will inevitably mean that it won't turn out to be correct.
Take Leigh. It's somewhere no one would really expect there to be a Tory pickup this election. They could have taken it had Labour's resources been diverted elsewhere, but Labour have had plenty of time to claw things back.
It may be the case the MRP has ensured fewer seats actually flip this election than normal.
Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
I would have thought that never hearing a word she says could only improve one's opinion of Jo Swinson? Or at least that seems to be the common "the more they hear, the less they like" opinion.
And as for how she dresses, I do wonder what the effect on the LDs poll status would have been if she showed a bit of cleavage. Yes, joke, honest!
Utterly OT, but if anyone backed my Leicester to win without Liverpool/Manchester City bet at 9.5 (Ladbrokes) you could choose to cash that out now. Personally, I'd hold onto it.
Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
That seems to be the final Conservative card on YouTube and other social media outlets. It's absurd because no one votes FOR a Hung Parliament - it's an accident of electoral arithmetic.
It actually smacks of desperation and the truth is without a majority the Conservatives are the "Billy NoMates" of politics and if they are short of 323 by any amount they will be in serious trouble,
I have to disagree. The DUP will be eminently bribeable once more once they are reelected. People make the mistake of seeing NI parties (exc Alliance) as conventional political parties when a better analogy is with the Kray and Richardson gangs of the 60s.
"Back to Boris Johnson and his questions. He's asked about the future of the BBC licence fee and surprises those listening saying he believes the whole idea of funding the BBC through a licence fee should be looked at.
"It is effectively a tax," he says."
So he says looked at. Nothing definitive.
If he wins, let's hope this is the leverage to force BBC to pay for all Over 75s.
Let's hope it's a means of shifting the BBC to a proper subscription model as forcing the BBC to pay for the Over 75s was a cheap tax trick by Osbourne and should have been called out at the time for what it was.
A hypothecated 0.6% increase in income tax base rate would be fairer. The licence fee is both regressive and easily evaded.
Haven’t watched the BBC for years. Why on Earth should I pay for it?
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
I disagree actually. I was expecting her to be a bit poor but she has been abysmal. Interestingly I was at a large lunch party yesterday where I chatted to a number of different people, and inevitably the election came up since some of those I was talking to know that I 'invest' in the political betting markets. Even I was surprised at how negative the perceptions of Jo Swinson were - these are well-off mostly retired people in a Tory seat but mostly Remainers and potential or actual LibDem voters.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.
With hindsight an interesting strategy for them would be to almost have ignored Brexit. Say you know where we stand on that but we have much more to us than just Brexit. Talk mainly about the environment, education and a positive vision of Britains future in the world.
yes, damned shame they didn't. Combined with main parties not fit to govern. Too many politicians are influenced by froth in the social media bubbles.
I think that approach would have made a big difference in the south west where I expect they will do badly to historic comparisons. There arent enough realistic target seats in remania to make up for it, although they will generate a lot more winnable seats for the following election there.
Consider the chaos that will ensue, if it is a Hung Parliament.
Another year of madness, another EU referendum (and then what??), probably a Scottish referendum, endless currency turmoil, investment collapse, property prices reeling, the works.
FFS.
That seems to be the final Conservative card on YouTube and other social media outlets. It's absurd because no one votes FOR a Hung Parliament - it's an accident of electoral arithmetic.
It actually smacks of desperation and the truth is without a majority the Conservatives are the "Billy NoMates" of politics and if they are short of 323 by any amount they will be in serious trouble,
Not as much trouble as the country as a whole. Whether you like it or note everything that Byronic lists there will come to pass if we have a hung Parliament., And a whole lot more shit as well.
Whereas Brexit will go smoothly and without a hitch and we should ignore the apocalyptic warnings of the Labour Conservative government because Tories are habitual ... oh, hold on.
If I had said that you would have had a point. But I didn't so you are spouting garbage yet again.
It amuses me that Matt Hancock has been sent to the hospital. What’s he going to do? A four year old slept on some coats, presumably because it was more comfy than the chair. It happens. Our society, and in particular our media, are endlessly childish.
There are lots of issues to discuss in the NHS. This isn’t one of them.
Apart from usual anguish at being forced to remember that Hancock exists, my first was "oh, finally he can get the help he needs".
Thinking aloud; I'm wondering whether the existence of the Yougov MRP, and the belief in it, will inevitably mean that it won't turn out to be correct.
I'm not sure that belief in something will have an impact on its accuracy. But have we ever had a situation where the gold standard polling company/method has held onto that status at the subsequent election?
I want to believe MRP (at least YouGov's last one) but I'm suspicious of my own motivations.
I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
If Boris gets those people out he will definitely have won...
In canvassing / leafletting a very small area ( less than 50 voters ) this afternoon we ID'd a family of four in this category who were coming out for James Airey - get Brexit done
Does it feel like Westmorland could go Tory this time? It's almost split 50/50 on Brexit and was very close last time, with MRP also predicting a close result.
I would take anything from AVFC with a very large pinch of salt. He seems to operate the local Tory cheerleading squad.
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
I disagree actually. I was expecting her to be a bit poor but she has been abysmal. Interestingly I was at a large lunch party yesterday where I chatted to a number of different people, and inevitably the election came up since some of those I was talking to know that I 'invest' in the political betting markets. Even I was surprised at how negative the perceptions of Jo Swinson were - these are well-off mostly retired people in a Tory seat but mostly Remainers and potential or actual LibDem voters.
You LibDems need to find to way to replace her after the election. She's a millstone round your neck.
Her advisers must be useless. Not just slightly useless, totally useless.
Thinking aloud; I'm wondering whether the existence of the Yougov MRP, and the belief in it, will inevitably mean that it won't turn out to be correct.
I'm not sure that belief in something will have an impact on its accuracy. But have we ever had a situation where the gold standard polling company/method has held onto that status at the subsequent election?
I want to believe MRP (at least YouGov's last one) but I'm suspicious of my own motivations.
WillS
The whole 'Gold Standard' meme is just trolling isn't it? Most serious gamblers disregard the last result rather than give too much weight to it
Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.
That must be the most stupid comment I have heard in a long time. By all means dislike her, but do not suggest her hair and clothes make her unprofessional when she is up against Johnson and Corbyn, both of whom would be put to shame by a scarecrow.
It's a poll prediction of political scientists, not of the wider public, political scientists are not a representative sample and can be profesionally biased.
Which reminds me of this silly prediction in 1995 by Sir Ivor Crewe, the President of the Academy of Social Science, that essentially John Major would beat Tony Blair in 1997. Here he is at around 1:30:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etFPKNth-Xk
It was obvious by anyone at the time that Major was a cooked goose, but not by Sir Ivor.
Whatever happened to Ivor Crewe? He was one of the main TV election experts for many years and he's not that old, about the same age as Jeremy Corbyn I think.
He is now Sir Ivor Crewe (knighted in 2006) and has been master of University College, Oxford for a number of years.
Tories have writter to @ElectoralCommUK to complain about US Democratic Socialists of America providing phone banking assistance - an ofference under Section 50 of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000
Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.
That must be the most stupid comment I have heard in a long time. By all means dislike her, but do not suggest her hair and clothes make her unprofessional when she is up against Johnson and Corbyn, both of whom would be put to shame by a scarecrow.
There's absolutely nothing wrong with her hair or her appearance. She is useless at her job, but that is entirely unrelated.
I usually don't post tweets, but this one caught my eye because it also caught my eye on the EU referendum, the people who are too poor to usually vote did vote in the EU referendum and for Leave:
If Boris gets those people out he will definitely have won...
In canvassing / leafletting a very small area ( less than 50 voters ) this afternoon we ID'd a family of four in this category who were coming out for James Airey - get Brexit done
Does it feel like Westmorland could go Tory this time? It's almost split 50/50 on Brexit and was very close last time, with MRP also predicting a close result.
It will of course depend on what happens nationally but if the Tories make more than 15 gains it will be among them.
So Matt Hancock was despatched to Leeds Hospital, to try to sort out mess, hearing Labour activists scrambled to go + protest, and it turned nasty when they arrived - one of them punched Hancock's adviser
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etc
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.
Yeah, that's my memory of 2017 and its completely notable by its absence.
Hung parliament = general election in 2020, most likely.
What odds no deal in Jan 31 with a hung parliament?
Shame there is no market for this on betfair as I wouldnt mind hedging some no deal risk. This is the first time I think the market would be underestimating the chance of no deal rather than significantly overestimating.
It depends what kind of hung parliament, but it seems a bit unlikely, given that there appeared to be a majority for Johnson's deal in the old Commons, and a fair number of the odds, ends and nominal Lib Dems opposed to it won't be re-elected. Though I suppose the same may be true of the Labour rebels who supported it. Does anyone know the numbers?
Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.
That must be the most stupid comment I have heard in a long time. By all means dislike her, but do not suggest her hair and clothes make her unprofessional when she is up against Johnson and Corbyn, both of whom would be put to shame by a scarecrow.
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etc
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.
Yeah, that's my memory of 2017 and its completely notable by its absence.
So Matt Hancock was despatched to Leeds Hospital, to try to sort out mess, hearing Labour activists scrambled to go + protest, and it turned nasty when they arrived - one of them punched Hancock's adviser
So Matt Hancock was despatched to Leeds Hospital, to try to sort out mess, hearing Labour activists scrambled to go + protest, and it turned nasty when they arrived - one of them punched Hancock's adviser
News story is now LAB thuggery
Vote CON Thur or we will have LAB/SNP Stalinist regime!
The whole 'Gold Standard' meme is just trolling isn't it? Most serious gamblers disregard the last result rather than give too much weight to it
Really? I always take form into account when placing sporting bets.
Of course I also rarely come out ahead except by accident :-)
WillS.
Yeah you have to look at the form, but the betting markets often put too much emphasis on it, as that is where the casual punter's money goes. Often it is wise to overlook a bad performance last time out
The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
I would have thought that never hearing a word she says could only improve one's opinion of Jo Swinson? Or at least that seems to be the common "the more they hear, the less they like" opinion.
And as for how she dresses, I do wonder what the effect on the LDs poll status would have been if she showed a bit of cleavage. Yes, joke, honest!
So Matt Hancock was despatched to Leeds Hospital, to try to sort out mess, hearing Labour activists scrambled to go + protest, and it turned nasty when they arrived - one of them punched Hancock's adviser
News story is now LAB thuggery
Vote CON Thur or we will have LAB/SNP Stalinist regime!
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
It wouldn't have made a scintilla of difference if Ed Davey had been leader or if the policy had been a second referendum rather than revoke.
Jo Swinson has certainly had a baptism of fire and hopefully she will learn a lot from the experience - primarily to ignore or face down the misogynistic comments.
Revoke and Swinson have definitely been the main reasons why LDs going down faster than a 10 bob hooker
Don't bother arguing with Richard N - he's never liked Jo's hair or how she dresses. I don't suppose he's even heard a word she's said.
Ah, and the hair. I've tested this theory. Ask any woman about it. You will find I was right. One lady was very surprised that I'd noticed or would care; of course I don't care personally - I'm voting LibDem anyway - but I do care in the sense that I think the fact that Ms Swinson looks so unprofessional is influencing voters, mostly without them even being aware of it.
Even Corbyn, FFS, managed to smarten himself up when his minders nagged him to do so.
That must be the most stupid comment I have heard in a long time. By all means dislike her, but do not suggest her hair and clothes make her unprofessional when she is up against Johnson and Corbyn, both of whom would be put to shame by a scarecrow.
Very good point!
But wrong. Corbyn smartened himself up considerably after being told the opinion of the dowager Mrs Cameron. He now looks quite smart enough. Boris is a bit of special case, as always, but he dresses appropriately.
The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistas
I wonder whether some people will defend this alleged punch as an understandable response to Johnson putting a reporter's phone in his (Johnson's) pocket.
Hung parliament = general election in 2020, most likely.
What odds no deal in Jan 31 with a hung parliament?
Shame there is no market for this on betfair as I wouldnt mind hedging some no deal risk. This is the first time I think the market would be underestimating the chance of no deal rather than significantly overestimating.
It depends what kind of hung parliament, but it seems a bit unlikely, given that there appeared to be a majority for Johnson's deal in the old Commons, and a fair number of the odds, ends and nominal Lib Dems opposed to it won't be re-elected. Though I suppose the same may be true of the Labour rebels who supported it. Does anyone know the numbers?
In theory something between 315 and 321 seats might lead to it (i.e. not enough tory seats for an outright working majority, but enough with the DUP, basically just like last time), but there are still a few tory MPs opposed to no-deal and likewise a few labour MPs who were in favor of the deal who would likely not have lost their seat in such a scenario (Flint, Onn, Stringer...).
I feel like this would probably lead to the deal being passed, unless the numbers are closer to 315 in which case there would probably be enough tory rebels to rebels to block no deal anyway. Either way I think no-deal is very unlikely.
The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistas
Well, he's being used, I think that's pretty obvious, don't you?
Gove in Chesterfield today after a Tory surge in their canvass returns according to their candidate there.I thought all Labour activists had been relocated from Chesterfield as it was considered safe for Labour?.Needs about a ten per cent swing.
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etc
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.
Yeah, that's my memory of 2017 and its completely notable by its absence.
But what we had in 2017, and don't have this time, was breathless, upbeat and excited reports from Labour activists, revealing the Corbyn Surge (which was matched by his dizzying ascent in the leader polls). Plus those huge rallies, Oh Jerremmy Corrrbynnn etc etc etc
None of that applies now. Instead Labour canvassers are nearly all gloomy, suspicious, puzzled.
It is just anecdata, but it IS anecdata.
Yeah, that's my memory of 2017 and its completely notable by its absence.
The stunt pulled by that so-called ITV journalist was pretty low IMO, but I expected something like this to happen in the days running up to the election. It's a classic tabloid style sting. Saying that, Boris could have handled it a lot better, but he appeared to panic a little bit. I'm sorry for the young lad who is being used as a political tool to gain points. It smacks of complete desperation IMO.
The kids parents. What are they playing at? Assume they are corbnistas
Yeah, that's right - the hospital would have found their son a bed if they had been card-carrying Tories.
Gove in Chesterfield today after a Tory surge in their canvass returns according to their candidate there.I thought all Labour activists had been relocated from Chesterfield as it was considered safe for Labour?.Needs about a ten per cent swing.
In one respect "Oh all the instruments agree". The pollsters are unanimous that Jo Swinson's Liberal Democrats have tanked during the campaign.
Actually no, depending on your definition of "tanked". All the pollsters show the LD vote share declining but those pollsters showing the smaller Tory leads show that decline as being in the 2-3% range.
I wouldn't define 2-3% as "tanked".
WillS.
Interesting phrasing. All the pollsters show it falling, but if you choose to only look at those its fallen the least and then ignore the fall that shows then the Lib Dems have lost less and you wouldn't view that as tanking? Strange cherrypicking.
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.
Yes I fancy it in Ynys Mon. That might change at 5pm.
Who's on CON for Ogmore?!
The PC price looks much better in Ynys Mon. The Tories should have been well placed in this seat, but the sheer stupidity of putting a convicted criminal with no local connection forward as their candidate (Chris Davies) and then having to replace him is not a good look. That the Tories then compounded their error by selecting a replacement (Virginia Crosbie) who is London and Sussex based and had, apparently, never been near the constituency until selection - would defy belief and be met with cries of fix if another party parachuted in such a PPC. My money is firmly with PC for this seat.
Comments
There are lots of issues to discuss in the NHS. This isn’t one of them.
Edit: I see not.
O/t
Why can I not get comments under each header on an Ipad no problem a Win10 PC
Ipad won't let me login either again no problem on the PC
TIA
Mike
Take Leigh. It's somewhere no one would really expect there to be a Tory pickup this election. They could have taken it had Labour's resources been diverted elsewhere, but Labour have had plenty of time to claw things back.
It may be the case the MRP has ensured fewer seats actually flip this election than normal.
And as for how she dresses, I do wonder what the effect on the LDs poll status would have been if she showed a bit of cleavage. Yes, joke, honest!
WillS
I've hedged on Betfair, so green either way.
https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/
I want to believe MRP (at least YouGov's last one) but I'm suspicious of my own motivations.
WillS
Will there be a shock waiting in the Valleys?
Arbroath +6 rain
Armagh +5 rain
St Davids +11 rain
Winchester +9 rain
I think their reputation as most accurate pollster is going down the pan.
IMO the current lead prior to Boris being a bastard with the 4 yr olds photo was 9-10
After the photo i think the lead will be 9-10
Con 7/4
PC 15/8
Lab 9/4
Con 1/6
LD 5/1
Tories have writter to @ElectoralCommUK to complain about US Democratic Socialists of America providing phone banking assistance - an ofference under Section 50 of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act 2000
Con 17/20
SNP 5/4
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1204076048704557059
So Matt Hancock was despatched to Leeds Hospital, to try to sort out mess, hearing Labour activists scrambled to go + protest, and it turned nasty when they arrived - one of them punched Hancock's adviser
I've not been able to get comments under the header for the last 2 months, can only get it via Vanilla Community site instead.
Con 1/6
LD 4/1
They really haven't! 3% MoE vs ICM's 2%....
Sur Con 42-48, Lab 28-34
ICM Con 40-44, Lab 34-38
Doesn't contradict the overall picture of a 10% gap.
Who's on CON for Ogmore?!
Of course I also rarely come out ahead except by accident :-)
WillS.
Lab 8/13
SNP 6/4
Con 14/1
SNP 1/4
Lab 3/1
Vote CON Thur or we will have LAB/SNP Stalinist regime!
Swim against the tide, in short!
SNP 4/6
Lab 3/1
Con 7/2
Doubt it will make much difference, mind.
Been a great day for the Corbynistas, eh? How to win friends and influence people by shouting at the working classes, then a fracas in an A & E.
I feel like this would probably lead to the deal being passed, unless the numbers are closer to 315 in which case there would probably be enough tory rebels to rebels to block no deal anyway. Either way I think no-deal is very unlikely.
Lab 42%
Con 36%
LD 8%
BRX 9%
Grn 3%
Oth 2%
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
In September the Lib Dems were consistently polling around 20% ± 2%. They're now consistently around 13% ± 2%. They've lost about 35% of the people who were intending to vote for them - I'd call that tanking.
Instead a tight poll and now phone-gate / lamping a minsters adviser.
Be really surprised if Wales poll is bad for Tories.
My money is firmly with PC for this seat.
https://www.facebook.com/87035rb/