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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The reports of high turnout might be down to the fact it’ll go

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  • If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate

    But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was London
    Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands way
    My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.

    They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?

    Can you tell us which seats they can gain?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,461

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.

    Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.


    It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.

    What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
    Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
    Every vote does count the same.

    The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
    The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
    Absolutely not!

    California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
    Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?
    I believe Congress would have to authorise it. There's proposals for it to happen (divided into 3 IIRC) but its unlikely, there's not much support for it to occur. Be like suggesting England is divided - few people genuinely want something like that even if it supports their politics.
    Twas what the Republicans did with Dakota
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    edited December 2019

    I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

    How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.
    Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.

    Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
  • Nobidexx said:

    Texas turning blue would be an electoral earthquake. And fair game if it happens, why shouldn't the Democrats target Texas? The GOP have no divine right to it.

    They'd need to overturn a 9% majority there, which would be very tough unless the result is a landslide. To win they only need to overcome a 1% or less majority in 3 states with similar demographics (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), which is obviously much easier.
    Currently but Texas is trending blue much faster than other States. Within a decade or two Texas could be a genuine Swing State.

    If Texas does go blue then all of a sudden the Electoral College would have a very different shape to it. With a narrowly blue Texas then all of a sudden it makes it plausible that the Democrats could win the Presidency while losing the popular vote. Which would be entirely legitimate too.
  • Fenster said:

    On a purely philosophical note, Corbyn and Momentum have been successful in convincing a lot of young people that governments are entirely to blame for things like poverty and homelessness.

    My brother lived on the streets for a few weeks and it was ENTIRELY his fault. He had a great upbringing, very talented sportsman, university educated, a teacher for two decades, but became an alcoholic. My mother and the authorities couldn't have done more to help him, but helping a pisshead is nigh on impossible.

    In November it was his anniversary of a year sober. So he's back on track. But he's unable to work yet and has very generous monthly PIP payments.

    Every young person has access to a (relatively) first class education in this country. Many choose to spoil the privilege. I have seen many young kids in rugby who couldn't give a monkey's about learning and end up at 25 gutted that they'd wasted it. That is not the government's fault.

    Politicians have become very poor at arguing that people should first and foremost help themselves.

    If they did there would be plenty more money for those who desperately need it and are more deserving of it.

    I'm sorry, but being an alcoholic is NOT his fault
  • I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

    How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.
    Perhaps they feel they need to shore up their core vote.
  • There was not a queue at my polling station in rural Scotland, but there were TWO other people, so I'm calling #brisk
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    malcolmg said:

    RobD said:

    It's getting very wet out there -- http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

    Not in God's country Rob, crisp and dry here
    'crisp and dry'

    It's all about the deep fat fryer.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,420

    There was not a queue at my polling station in rural Scotland, but there were TWO other people, so I'm calling #brisk

    How many seats for tories in Scotland? Take a guess.
  • murali_s said:

    Have done my civic duty and cast my vote here in Wimbledon. Polling station very empty. Staff chasing flies!

    Flies in December? Very odd.
    Are you sure you went to right place, Philip? Wasn't a Mexican restaurant, was it? Easy mistake to make.
    I think your comment needs to be directed at murali ;)
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    Labour will do fine in metropolitan and commuter areas.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    edited December 2019
    Even in 2017, 17% of the Mail readers (not the website) voted Labour. Add in the huge numbers of people who visit the website to get the latest hit of z-celeb gossip. I think it is a fairly smart move.

    30% of Sun readers voted Labour.

    Back in New Labour's day, the percentage was much much higher, despite Mail's constant attacks on Blair and his wife.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 208
    Just walked to polling station in Dorset West. Very quiet.
    Rain is chucking down.
  • If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate

    But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was London
    Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands way
    My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.

    They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?
    I doubt it. I mean they could gain 21 tory seats if they got 70% but they wont. I could see chipping, putney and chingford going on a good London showing for Jezza
    Even three could be crucial if the Tories do worse than expected elsewhere.
    Hendon was also very close on the Yougov MRP
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,703

    I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

    How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.
    The Mail's website is one of the most-viewed news websites in the country (and am I right in saying, the world?!), so it evidently has appeal beyond the paper readership. Probably the celeb gossip on there.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,036

    I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

    How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.
    Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.

    Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
    Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.

    I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.
  • Morning all,

    A brief return to the site (well, it's a special occasion!). Taunton Deane was doing a roaring trade despite the downpour. Bodes well for a high turnout. It was supposed to be a LibDem target, but that's before Swinson decided to perform her serial acts of self-immolation over revocation and self-id.

    The only minor risk for Rebecca Pow is that the whole area is outraged over the Tory council's shenanigans (they've since been booted out and it's LD now), and she's frankly not that great a local MP.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,488

    There was not a queue at my polling station in rural Scotland, but there were TWO other people, so I'm calling #brisk

    Is it possible "brisk" alone is simply insufficient in these modern times? I propose we split it into "lightly brisk" and "heavily brisk".
  • I fear that members of "the Remain community" (what the feck???) will be voiding themselves at 10 pm.
    This shows the really scary mindset of some (not all) of the die-hards. Let’s run to the court every time something we don’t like happens and get a vote voided.
  • Labour seems to be using their MRP again
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 151
    Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,504
    edited December 2019
    kyf_100 said:

    I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

    How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.
    Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.

    Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
    Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.

    I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.
    I have ad-block on, both via browser and VPN level, so I don't see anything and also not geolocatable. So I have no idea what I would be getting.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,461

    I've been sitting with the Ballot paper in front of me for nearly half an hour and am unable to make my mind up. I'm in a Leading marginal which flip-flops between LAB and CON and had decided to only vote tactically if I thought the result here was a foregone conclusion. There is only ever a few hundred votes in it in this constituency.

    Less chance of LDs getting a say if Boris wins the seat. Although an understandable dilemma.
    Have you thought about selling to the highest bidder, Mike? Try eBay.
    Votemaster rather than Ticketmaster? A means to offload an unwanted vote at a sky high price. I like it.
    Did Mike try earlier to find a Labour voter to vote LD in another seat where LD counts, like Guildford, Cheltenham or Winchester? One more LD seat arguably does more good than any 'harm' done by keeping Bedford Lab.

    I'm in such a safe seat that my vote seems to have little market value ...

    Close friends in Twickenham are LAB members but are voting LD. That settles it.

    Anyhow isn’t the closest ever parliamentary election in modern times a margin of two votes? So a single vote has never yet decided an MP. Even in that case a straight switch would only have led to drawing lots.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,036

    Fenster said:

    On a purely philosophical note, Corbyn and Momentum have been successful in convincing a lot of young people that governments are entirely to blame for things like poverty and homelessness.

    My brother lived on the streets for a few weeks and it was ENTIRELY his fault. He had a great upbringing, very talented sportsman, university educated, a teacher for two decades, but became an alcoholic. My mother and the authorities couldn't have done more to help him, but helping a pisshead is nigh on impossible.

    In November it was his anniversary of a year sober. So he's back on track. But he's unable to work yet and has very generous monthly PIP payments.

    Every young person has access to a (relatively) first class education in this country. Many choose to spoil the privilege. I have seen many young kids in rugby who couldn't give a monkey's about learning and end up at 25 gutted that they'd wasted it. That is not the government's fault.

    Politicians have become very poor at arguing that people should first and foremost help themselves.

    If they did there would be plenty more money for those who desperately need it and are more deserving of it.

    I'm sorry, but being an alcoholic is NOT his fault
    Then who else is to blame?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    viewcode said:

    Alistair said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Santa is solid Labour. He lives in the North, dresses in red and likes giving young people free stuff.
    Incorrect, he gives poor people very little and rich people lots. He directly connects morality with wealth.

    Classic Tory.
    He's a self-employed manager with his own manufacturing company who employs non-unionised workers with no rights and whose delivery system requires animal labour far beyond any regulation. He adopts bizarre clothing because he can't be fired and he got his job without any interview or desert. He gives presents to his favourites and punishes those he dislikes according to his whim. He lives in an isolated mansion that others cannot conceivably afford. Yes, he is most certainly a classic Tory.
    Hes a creepy fat guy who gets off on watching you sleep
    Hes Harvey Weinstein
    "...He sees you when you're sleeping. He knows when you're awake. He knows if you've been bad or good so be good, for goodness sake..."

    Testimony of the Chief Prosecutor, the Claus trial, 2019/12/12, The Hague

  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,488
    RH1992 said:

    Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.

    Good on her.
  • ''Labour will do fine in metropolitan and commuter areas. ''

    A somewhat glib assertion.

    Many people in those constituencies work in and around financial services, an industry Mr Corbyn explicitly wants destroy.
  • camel said:

    Labour will do fine in metropolitan and commuter areas.
    Probably spite
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,349
    What's the weather on polling day like?



    Looks like reindeer.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 2,471
    That is unfair. At the time she fully expected to become Prime Minister!
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,528
    edited December 2019

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.

    What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.

    Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
    Every vote does count the same.

    The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
    The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
    Absolutely not!

    California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
    Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?
    It would require the consent of the state legislature and the federal Congress but it could happen legally speaking. West Virginia was split from Virginia during the civil war withe consent of the rump of the pro-Union members of the last antebellum Virginia legislature. Maine was split from Massachusetts in 1820 with the latter’s consent.

    Practically, though? There have been several attempts to get a split of California onto the ballot but none have passed. Similarly there are often calls to split New York State as “upstate” has little in common with New York City but those never get anywhere either. Americans are very conservative about their state loyalies and boundaries and most would be instinctively opposed to changing them.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,612
    edited December 2019

    If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate

    But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was London
    Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands way
    My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.

    They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?
    I doubt it. I mean they could gain 21 tory seats if they got 70% but they wont. I could see chipping, putney and chingford going on a good London showing for Jezza
    Even three could be crucial if the Tories do worse than expected elsewhere.
    The polls will have to be out by a very considerable margin for you to get your desired result. I just can't see it. Those millions of Labour leave voters are seething with resentment over Brexit. It won't take that many of them to turn 15 or 20 seats blue.

    In a sense London does not matter, it's just not the battleground at this election CHB.
  • RH1992 said:

    Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.

    Why is she sporting a red rosette?
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,036

    kyf_100 said:

    I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

    How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.
    Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.

    Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
    Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.

    I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.
    I have ad-block on, both via browser and VPN level, so I don't see anything and also not geolocatable. So I have no idea what I would be getting.
    Same, normally. Quite how anybody goes through life without a VPN and at least one ad blocker is beyond me.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,072

    dr_spyn said:
    Santa is solid Labour. He lives in the North, dresses in red and likes giving young people free stuff.
    Employs slave labour, doesn’t give his reindeer reasonable breaks on their 24 hour trip and claims all the credit for himself...
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 757
    rpjs said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.

    What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.

    Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
    Every vote does count the same.

    The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
    The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
    Absolutely not!

    California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
    Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?
    It would require the consent of the state legislature and the federal Congress but it could happen. West Virginia was split from Virginia during the civil war withe consent of the rump of the pro-Union members of the last antebellum Virginia legislature. Maine was split from Massachusetts in 1820 with the latter’s consent. There have been several attempts to get a split of California onto the ballot but none have passed. Similarly there are often calls to split New York State as “upstate” has little in common with New York City but those never get anywhere either. Americans are very conservative about their state loyalies and boundaries and most would be instinctively opposed to changing them.
    It isn't in the interests to have states start splitting up as Republicans are more geographically diverse.
  • RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just voted (turnout seemed "brisk" ;) ) - And quite exciting as there's a lady outside the polling station logging who everyone has voted for so for the first time ever I'm part of the exit poll. :D

    :o you are one of the chosen
    I hope you lied, to help increase the tension at 10pm and make for better tv.
  • chloechloe Posts: 303
    camel said:

    Labour will do fine in metropolitan and commuter areas.
    Labour has been virtually invisible in Finchley and Golders Green despite coming a fairly close second last time.
  • kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

    How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.
    Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.

    Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
    Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.

    I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.
    I have ad-block on, both via browser and VPN level, so I don't see anything and also not geolocatable. So I have no idea what I would be getting.
    Same, normally. Quite how anybody goes through life without a VPN and at least one ad blocker is beyond me.
    Not using VPN in public, is a bit like not using protection when with a dockside hooker.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 151

    RH1992 said:

    Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.

    Why is she sporting a red rosette?
    I think it's just the angle of the sun, or maybe May is campaigning for Corbyn on the sly?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,559
    Is that a stop Berger effort by them ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    Wow, looking at the Survation tables for Scotland there is quite the thing.

    Unweighted Survation could only find, 136 SLab 2017 Voters, they up weighted to 190
    They found 330 SNP voters and down weighted to 259.

    Likewise they could only find 224 leave voters so had to upweight to 300.

    What makes that really interesting is that they found a near perfect distribution of SindyRef voters, after reweighting they only change by a couple of respondents each.
  • Jason said:

    If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate

    But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was London
    Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands way
    My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.

    They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?
    I doubt it. I mean they could gain 21 tory seats if they got 70% but they wont. I could see chipping, putney and chingford going on a good London showing for Jezza
    Even three could be crucial if the Tories do worse than expected elsewhere.
    The polls will have to be out by a very considerable margin for you to get your desired result. I just can't see it. Those millions of Labour leave voters are seething with resentment over Brexit. It won't take that many of them to turn 15 or 20 seats blue.

    In a sense London does not matter, it's just not the battleground at this election CHB.
    The South might well be though. That’s where Johnson kept going.

    You can either assume he thinks the red wall is in the bag - I don’t - or that he’s given up and he’s now worried about making a net loss.

  • I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

    How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.
    I think the website is a bit different. The celebrity news stuff is widely shared amongst a very different demographic from those who read the paper.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,590
    OK, so I'm just back from voting in Hampstead & Kilburn. Light drizzle only and quite a few punters at the polling station. Pretty obvious they were all voting Labour same as me. Can't speak for other places, obviously, but Tulip Sadiq looking safe as houses here.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    edited December 2019
    dr_spyn said:

    What's the weather on polling day like?



    Looks like reindeer.
    Thank you darling, I will take an umbrella

    :)
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,420
    chloe said:

    camel said:

    Labour will do fine in metropolitan and commuter areas.
    Labour has been virtually invisible in Finchley and Golders Green despite coming a fairly close second last time.
    Probably too ashamed to show their faces.
  • chloechloe Posts: 303
    Nigelb said:
    They have made very little effort here up to now.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 13,826
    RobD said:

    There was not a queue at my polling station in rural Scotland, but there were TWO other people, so I'm calling #brisk

    Is it possible "brisk" alone is simply insufficient in these modern times? I propose we split it into "lightly brisk" and "heavily brisk".
    Like drizzle.

    My preferred type is lemon

    Anyway off to do a couple of hours phone banking.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 2,471
    It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 297
    RobD said:

    There was not a queue at my polling station in rural Scotland, but there were TWO other people, so I'm calling #brisk

    Is it possible "brisk" alone is simply insufficient in these modern times? I propose we split it into "lightly brisk" and "heavily brisk".
    I propose:

    "Brisk", "Steadily brisk", "Steady", "Sluggishly steady", "Sluggish", "Dead"

    All of which can be appended with "which means it is looking pretty bad for [the enemy]".
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,703

    RH1992 said:

    Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.

    Why is she sporting a red rosette?
    It's lens flare.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,488

    It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.
    If he gets his landslide there will be no FTPA. ;)
  • I agree it was a mistake but the deal was very likely passing anyway, nearly all the tory rebels were only anti no dealers rather than 2nd reffers. Better it passes with a mandate and the country having had some chance to reject it if they want to. So the timing a minor rather than major mistake.
  • Mr. 67, I broadly agree. Unsure about Wales.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,994
    Alistair said:

    Wow, looking at the Survation tables for Scotland there is quite the thing.

    Unweighted Survation could only find, 136 SLab 2017 Voters, they up weighted to 190
    They found 330 SNP voters and down weighted to 259.

    Likewise they could only find 224 leave voters so had to upweight to 300.

    What makes that really interesting is that they found a near perfect distribution of SindyRef voters, after reweighting they only change by a couple of respondents each.

    What about the Tooooooooories ?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,461
    kyf_100 said:

    I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

    How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.
    Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.

    Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
    Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.

    I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.
    I just went there. And there is a big blue banner down each side of the page and across the top urging vote conservative
  • We really need some northern anecdotes
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 151
    edited December 2019
    RobD said:

    It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.
    If he gets his landslide there will be no FTPA. ;)
    The FTPA is dead no matter the outcome. It's just what replaces it. Simple parliamentary vote for an election, or back to the Monarch dissolving Parliament on the advice of the PM?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039
    GIN1138 said:

    Just voted (turnout seemed "brisk" ;) ) - And quite exciting as there's a lady outside the polling station logging who everyone has voted for so for the first time ever I'm part of the exit poll. :D

    Is this the first time you've voted at that polling station?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,488
    IanB2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

    How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.
    Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.

    Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
    Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.

    I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.
    I just went there. And there is a big blue banner down each side of the page and across the top urging vote conservative
    You'll never be full clean....
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,703

    We really need some northern anecdotes

    Some of Alan Bennett's 'Talking Heads' are on Youtube.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    rpjs said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.

    What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.

    Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
    Every vote does count the same.

    The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
    The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
    Absolutely not!

    California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
    Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?
    ... Similarly there are often calls to split New York State as “upstate” has little in common with New York City but those never get anywhere either...
    Well, upstate has the X-Men and Manhattan had the Avengers (at least until they moved) so you can see their point... :)

  • RobD said:

    It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.
    If he gets his landslide there will be no FTPA. ;)
    Which is the only way to get winter elections for years to come ;)

    FTPA = May elections.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 31,558
    edited December 2019
    Deltapoll

    We're breaking our own no comment rule for today because an account is spreading fake polls, supposedly conducted by us.

    We have NOT conducted any more constituency polls, have nothing more to publish. Ignore them.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,420
    Nigelb said:
    Looks like it.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,703
    IanB2 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    I see Cons have bought the Daily Mail advert banners today.

    How many people read the Mail who weren’t already going to vote Tory? It is like the Labour Party thinking it needs to advertise in the Guardian.
    Surprising number.....Mail website is one of the world most visited sites, mainly for the gossip.

    Also, if my memory serves me correctly, whenever they look at these things, a surprising percentage of Mail readers vote Labour.
    Just visited the DM off a completely clean browser. I'm getting ads for women's dresses, so it doesn't even know I'm male.

    I assume the Tory ads are targeted, the question is who are they targeting. Could be regional. Or retargeting people who have visited sites that give them a reasonable certainty they are Con supporters, to shore up the vote.
    I just went there. And there is a big blue banner down each side of the page and across the top urging vote conservative
    Just tried again and second-time lucky. Weird.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,559
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chameleon said:

    I'm not saying this with any authority but I'd get off the tories in the betting.

    Mock me after 10pm, that's fine.


    It doesn't matter one jot whether Labour win Streatham by 20,000 or 30,000 votes.

    What matters is how Wrexham, Leigh, and Sedgefield vote. If anything massive pro-Labour turnout in the cities (and I'm unconvinced that will happen - looks like normal pre-work queues) actively harms Labour, because it implies that their vote has got less efficient.
    Which is of course why the "every vote counts the same" posts seen on PB now and again are just nonsense
    Every vote does count the same.

    The fact people are even counting Leigh and Sedgefield as "marginals" just goes to prove that. How the hell is Leigh a marginal !?
    The mere fact that you just posted advice to the Democrats about which states they should be targeting proves that votes in some areas are worth more than in others.
    Absolutely not!

    California is very valuable, the most valuable State of all but the fact is though the Democrats are currently already appealing to Californians, so they should expand their appeal to states like Ohio without sacrificing California. If the Democrats were winning in Ohio but losing California I'd suggest they appeal to California. Its not fixed. The point of the system is not to target "swing" states/constituencies (which risks you losing your core) the point is to broaden your support as much as possible.
    Is there much to stop California splitting into North & South California to get more political power? If not why doesnt that happen?
    I believe Congress would have to authorise it. There's proposals for it to happen (divided into 3 IIRC) but its unlikely, there's not much support for it to occur. Be like suggesting England is divided - few people genuinely want something like that even if it supports their politics.
    Twas what the Republicans did with Dakota
    It was (though N and S were both admitted to the union at the same time) - over a century ago, and required a constitutional convention. That is a very high hurdle indeed.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,488

    We're breaking our own no comment rule for today because an account is spreading fake polls, supposedly conducted by us.

    We have NOT conducted any more constituency polls, have nothing more to publish. Ignore them.

    Never trusted that Big_G pollster in the first place. ;)
  • RH1992 said:

    Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.

    Why is she sporting a red rosette?
    If you cropped that to remove the sun and thus not show the source of the lens flare you could get quite a good twitter storm going I expect.
  • I agree it was a mistake but the deal was very likely passing anyway, nearly all the tory rebels were only anti no dealers rather than 2nd reffers. Better it passes with a mandate and the country having had some chance to reject it if they want to. So the timing a minor rather than major mistake.
    Yes, I think that is right. On the other hand the LibDem campaign has been a straightforward disaster.
  • Jason said:

    If London is going heavily Corbyn again and the polls are accurate if might be those anecdotes from what should be super safe labour northern seats are accurate

    But in 2017 the first sign Labour was doing well was London
    Yes but there are very limited gains available to them in london, maybe 3 at best. They could lose 50 or more up north/midlands way
    My point was it was indicative of Labour holding up elsewhere.

    They can gain 5 seats in London I believe?
    I doubt it. I mean they could gain 21 tory seats if they got 70% but they wont. I could see chipping, putney and chingford going on a good London showing for Jezza
    Even three could be crucial if the Tories do worse than expected elsewhere.
    The polls will have to be out by a very considerable margin for you to get your desired result. I just can't see it. Those millions of Labour leave voters are seething with resentment over Brexit. It won't take that many of them to turn 15 or 20 seats blue.

    In a sense London does not matter, it's just not the battleground at this election CHB.
    The South might well be though. That’s where Johnson kept going.

    You can either assume he thinks the red wall is in the bag - I don’t - or that he’s given up and he’s now worried about making a net loss.

    There's very few viable labour targets in the rest of the South though. All those with a less than 5% majority that I can think of also had a > 55% leave vote and no UKIP / BXP candidate (which gives them a slight boost compared to last time, and a massive one in Thurrock). I think a swing to labour in those seats is unlikely, especially on a 6-7% lead (which is below what most polls are predicting).
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    Scotland Turnout Prediction.

    The final Survation of 2017 had scotland with 80% 10/10 to vote actual turnout was 66.4&
    The final Survation of 2017 had scotland with 75% 10/10

    The biggest falling group is 55+ with a fall of

    Low turnout is good for the SNP in my POSSOM and really bad for SLab.
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Wow, looking at the Survation tables for Scotland there is quite the thing.

    Unweighted Survation could only find, 136 SLab 2017 Voters, they up weighted to 190
    They found 330 SNP voters and down weighted to 259.

    Likewise they could only find 224 leave voters so had to upweight to 300.

    What makes that really interesting is that they found a near perfect distribution of SindyRef voters, after reweighting they only change by a couple of respondents each.

    What about the Tooooooooories ?
    Tories Westminster vote slightly under polled.
    Everyones 2016 Holyrood result more accurate.

    10/10 turnout down in the North East, Tory 10/10 turnout down.

    In a game of knife edges this is good news for the SNP.
  • RH1992 said:

    RobD said:

    It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.
    If he gets his landslide there will be no FTPA. ;)
    The FTPA is dead no matter the outcome. It's just what replaces it. Simple parliamentary vote for an election, or back to the Monarch dissolving Parliament on the advice of the PM?
    I can't see parliament handing that power back to the PM (even with an influx of Boris elves). And if the decision stays with parliament then it won't be much different to FTPA anyway.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,801
    edited December 2019

    We really need some northern anecdotes

    "When I were a lad we could only afford to wash once a week, in a tin bath full of rainwater..."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,559
    nunu2 said:

    Nigelb said:
    Looks like it.
    Pretty low, if true.
  • Labour gains in London:

    Chipping Barnet
    Hendon
    Putney
    Harrow East
    Chingford

    There are in fact 17 London seats in their top 200.

    Chingford has the largest majority of those. They all have majorities of of 2500 or less
  • RH1992 said:

    RobD said:

    It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.
    If he gets his landslide there will be no FTPA. ;)
    The FTPA is dead no matter the outcome. It's just what replaces it. Simple parliamentary vote for an election, or back to the Monarch dissolving Parliament on the advice of the PM?
    Apparently it is not that simple. When the previous Perogative Power was replaced by the FTPA, that Power was lost forever. It means that the FTPA must be replaced with legislation - FTPA version 2....

    "Prerogative powers, such as the old powers to seek and grant dissolution, are the last vestiges of authority enjoyed by the monarch. As a matter of logic, a historical artefact, once destroyed, cannot be built from scratch."

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/ftpa-should-not-be-replaced-something-worse
  • That’s from electionpolling.co.uk/targets/labour
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,461
    RH1992 said:

    RH1992 said:

    Finally, a use for Ring doorbells. Finding out which former Prime Minister is at your door.

    Why is she sporting a red rosette?
    I think it's just the angle of the sun, or maybe May is campaigning for Corbyn on the sly?
    Sun? Today?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,040

    We really need some northern anecdotes

    Shortage of anecdotes? You were lucky.
  • It is a popular Twitter meme, which originated during the EU Referendum.

    You need to be more down with the social media, PT ;)
  • That is unfair. At the time she fully expected to become Prime Minister!
    Whoever wins the next parliament will be all the better for not having Nick Boles as a member, the last one would have been as well.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,488

    RH1992 said:

    RobD said:

    It really is a stupid time of the year for an election. But as the man who called it will get his landslide, we will have to endure winter elections for years to come.
    If he gets his landslide there will be no FTPA. ;)
    The FTPA is dead no matter the outcome. It's just what replaces it. Simple parliamentary vote for an election, or back to the Monarch dissolving Parliament on the advice of the PM?
    Apparently it is not that simple. When the previous Perogative Power was replaced by the FTPA, that Power was lost forever. It means that the FTPA must be replaced with legislation - FTPA version 2....

    "Prerogative powers, such as the old powers to seek and grant dissolution, are the last vestiges of authority enjoyed by the monarch. As a matter of logic, a historical artefact, once destroyed, cannot be built from scratch."

    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/ftpa-should-not-be-replaced-something-worse
    Simple, an act that says Parliament can only be dissolved by order in council or proclamation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,498
    edited December 2019
    mwadams said:

    RobD said:

    There was not a queue at my polling station in rural Scotland, but there were TWO other people, so I'm calling #brisk

    Is it possible "brisk" alone is simply insufficient in these modern times? I propose we split it into "lightly brisk" and "heavily brisk".
    I propose:

    "Brisk", "Steadily brisk", "Steady", "Sluggishly steady", "Sluggish", "Dead"

    All of which can be appended with "which means it is looking pretty bad for [the enemy]".
    This looks brisk

    https://metro.co.uk/2019/12/12/longest-queues-ever-people-stand-line-around-block-vote-11771760/?ito=article.mweb.share.top.link

    Not good for my low turnout bet, but bad for the Tories...
  • Labour gains in London:

    Chipping Barnet
    Hendon
    Putney
    Harrow East
    Chingford

    There are in fact 17 London seats in their top 200.

    Chingford has the largest majority of those. They all have majorities of of 2500 or less

    fascinating. Riveting.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    Off to vote mofos.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 2,316

    We really need some northern anecdotes

  • Voted in Stevenage, dead as a doornail.
  • It is a popular Twitter meme, which originated during the EU Referendum.

    You need to be more down with the social media, PT ;)
    I'm quite content not having Twitter in my life. No regrets there.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,461
    edited December 2019
    ..
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,780
    It's a parody of a tweet from 2016 EU ref, where someone said their blind 93yr mum shouted at which box for leave, to cheers from the queue
This discussion has been closed.