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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson gets his wish. The irony is that Jo Swinson made

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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    @Casino_Royale You can repair your Scotland damage with the SNP seat bet!
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    14 point lead. lol.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    nico67 said:

    Horrific exit poll for Labour and catastrophic for the Union.

    SNP on 55 !

    Boris (if he wins his seat) should announce a second Scottish Referendum.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Pound?

    Sterling has moved by 3 figure BPs
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    Andy_JS said:
    It wasn't just Brexit though, it was Corbyn.
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Byronic said:

    The Tories will say No to any Scottish referendum for the next 5 years. And they will have the Commons heft to do it.

    And HYUFD will send the troops in.
    Won't they be too busy nuking Madrid though?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    That would be a glorious first declaration.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited December 2019
    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Lefty Twitter going completely nuts :smiley:
    Re Owen Jones' post - No, Corbyn and Swinson, by refusing to co-operate have let in the Tories, if the final poll is right.
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    MrEd said:

    Byronic said:

    MrEd said:

    But let's see the Scotland numbers - how accurate were they last time?

    I predict the SNP will be sub-50
    Same here. They didn't have a good campaign but it is true the Unionist vote may have unwinded.
    Tactical voting is very easy in Scotland, so if the SNP have GOTV...
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,560
    Oh well. I will enjoy the rest of my holiday after all...
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    It is also worth flagging that this is probably better for the country than a tiny majority, as far as Brexit is concerned. The ERG could be effectively neutered.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    So, the LDs will likely lose three Scottish seats (maybe only two if they're lucky), and therefore pick up (net) four seats in the rest of the UK.

    That's a big "other" number.

    18 Nothern Ireland
    1 Speaker

    What are the other three?

    East Devon lady is one. But the others?

    Brighton?
    Ashfield
    Beaconsfield
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Repeating this

    BETTING POST

    Betfair Sportsbook has SNP seats UNDER 55.5 @ 1.83

    This is an incredible bet.
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    If the SNP are on 55 in Scotland that’s quite a few Tory losses to be made up in England...
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    Brexit Party zero seats, btw.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    It would be nice if the Tories get more votes than they did in 1992.
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    It occurs to me that this is the first election since I think 1865 an incumbent government has lost a majority and regained it.

    It also occurs to me this is the first time since 1983 that the exit poll has predicted a Tory majority. In 1987, 1992 and 2015 it predicted a hung parliament.
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    Jo Swinson backing this election, one of the biggest political miscalculations in history. And Labour too.
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    Con gains in Midlands and North of England must be huge, because of big Con losses in Scotland: BBC.
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    After the Yougov Welsh barometer I said that it indicated exactly that result.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Exit poll says LD lose all Scottish seats including Orkney.

    In 2015 it was also predicted to fall as the only seat not falling to the SNP.

    Orkney would be staggering. The two Scottish Parliament constituency seats are rock solid LD, and it's been continuously Liberal for ever.

    But you never know.
    O & S loss is extinction level event for the SLDs.
    Given it would mean they got zero Scottish MPs, then yes... it would clearly be extinction :smile:

    That being said, this is one where it's probably going to be very close. O&S voted 67:33 to stay in the UK, so if the SNP has grabbed it, it will likely be by the narrowest of margins.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    RobD said:

    That would be a glorious first declaration.
    I need more beer, lots more beer - feck work tomorrow they will understand
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    So who is the new Tony Blair figure then?
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    BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    I did suggest earlier this was a possibility. :smiley:
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,442
    Flavible were very close the exit poll with their latest prediction:

    https://flavible.co.uk/currentProjection
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    YokesYokes Posts: 1,200
    Those on the left, you might actually end up with a mildly sane Labour Party if these results are borne out.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    I did tip Sunderland Central at 4/1.
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    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    RobD said:

    14 point lead. lol.
    And people said Tories won't get 45% or more......tsk
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    Jo Swinson backing this election, one of the biggest political miscalculations in history. And Labour too.

    If it helps CHB, an election was inevitable sooner or later.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    ydoethur said:

    Macdonnell not denying that Corbyn has to resign, although he’s trying to evade it.

    But blaming it all on Brexit, not Jezza.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn cannot blame the Labour right for this. We’ve been as good as gold. Trappist monks.

    You've been too damn quiet in my opinion. But yes Corbyn and his worldview own this result (assuming the exit poll is right). I hope Labour can get rid of him and his followers.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,079
    Biggest betting profit of my life.

    But I feel physically sick.

    😟
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    nunu2 said:

    RobD said:

    14 point lead. lol.
    And people said Tories won't get 45% or more......tsk
    Yes.

    And we were wrong.
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    Sean_F said:

    I did tip Sunderland Central at 4/1.
    Good god.

    I expect to be saying that a lot tonight.
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    IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    John McDonnell looks shattered

    His career is ended. His politics is rejected. His time is done and he leaves nothing.Being very bright, he knows this.
    All that anti semitism gone to waste. Heart bleeds.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    Jo Swinson was Nicola Sturgeon’s useful idiot.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    Brom said:

    I did suggest earlier this was a possibility. :smiley:
    If the Tories are winning such seats, perhaps Boris is in trouble.
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    AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Looks like Qriously was the most accurate pollster, with Opinium/Kantar joint 2nd.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215

    Brexit Party zero seats, btw.

    Still at 1.12 BFE
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Could still be a few CON losses in London, although Eltham, Dagenham, Kensington looking v good

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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,838
    RobD said:

    That would be a glorious first declaration.
    Woudn't it just. 10% swing required, it's not impossible.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,216

    rcs1000 said:

    Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.

    RIP Corbynism.

    Thank you and goodnight Swinson.

    Be careful what you wish for, the next LD leader is less likely to be incompetent.
    Good! I want a sensible LD Party. The Tories will have been in power the better part of a decade and a half already and we need an opposition to hold us to account - and a sane opposition to take over when we fall.

    If Corbynistas refuse to let their grip go of the Labour Party over this then this country needs a strong Lib Dem Party to challenge them on the left.
    I want the Liberal party program of 1911 -

    1) Social insurance for all.
    2) Social justice and equality.
    3) Free trade expanded though out the Empire/Commonwelath
    4) Sensible spending plans balanced against taxation.
    5) A commitment to build twice as many Dreadnoughts as the German Navy.
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    tlg86 said:

    nico67 said:

    Horrific exit poll for Labour and catastrophic for the Union.

    SNP on 55 !

    Boris (if he wins his seat) should announce a second Scottish Referendum.
    I think he will. But on CON terms, not the SNP’s.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187

    So who is the new Tony Blair figure then?

    Don't you need to find your new Neil Kinnock first?
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    46-32 per Sky and TSE twitter
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    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    RobD said:

    That would be a glorious first declaration.
    We could be having recount after recount in the North east.
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited December 2019
    All these ex-Labour constituencies are going to be expecting great things from Brexit now, to transform their fortunes.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,838
    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    That would be a glorious first declaration.
    I need more beer, lots more beer - feck work tomorrow they will understand
    Champagne!!!
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    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    Exit poll says LD lose all Scottish seats including Orkney.

    In 2015 it was also predicted to fall as the only seat not falling to the SNP.

    Orkney would be staggering. The two Scottish Parliament constituency seats are rock solid LD, and it's been continuously Liberal for ever.

    But you never know.
    O & S loss is extinction level event for the SLDs.
    Given it would mean they got zero Scottish MPs, then yes... it would clearly be extinction :smile:

    That being said, this is one where it's probably going to be very close. O&S voted 67:33 to stay in the UK, so if the SNP has grabbed it, it will likely be by the narrowest of margins.
    Yes, we do have a Scottish parliament, though... ;)

    We can't lose Willie Rennie as SLD leader, he's absolute comedy gold.
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    DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Do we have the individual seat projections yet?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,937

    So who is the new Tony Blair figure then?

    Chuka, if he wins Westminster, which apparently is one of only a handful of Tory seats at risk
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919

    rcs1000 said:

    Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.

    RIP Corbynism.

    Thank you and goodnight Swinson.

    Be careful what you wish for, the next LD leader is less likely to be incompetent.
    Good! I want a sensible LD Party. The Tories will have been in power the better part of a decade and a half already and we need an opposition to hold us to account - and a sane opposition to take over when we fall.

    If Corbynistas refuse to let their grip go of the Labour Party over this then this country needs a strong Lib Dem Party to challenge them on the left.
    I want the Liberal party program of 1911 -

    1) Social insurance for all.
    2) Social justice and equality.
    3) Free trade expanded though out the Empire/Commonwelath
    4) Sensible spending plans balanced against taxation.
    5) A commitment to build twice as many Dreadnoughts as the German Navy.
    A continuation of the open door immigration policy?
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    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    The changes from the Welsh Barometer where:
    CON+3
    LAB -9

    This is what the exit poll is saying nationally.

    As I mentioned days ago you can reasonably predict the result from movements in Wales.
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    Jonathan said:

    Corbyn cannot blame the Labour right for this. We’ve been as good as gold. Trappist monks.

    This is the best possible result for the country and YOUR party.

    If you dump Corbyn and get a decent leader you could win, easily, next time.
    It was absolutely critical for folks like me to shut the fuck up in this campaign about Corbyn. Well we did that. It was really hard. He owns this. Outright. He cannot blame the right, the Blairites. He got his chance.

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    Alistair said:

    BETTING POST

    Betfair Sportsbook has SNP seats UNDER 55.5 @ 1.83

    This is an incredible bet.

    Just put £400 on , thanks!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    BBC going into detail on the Exit Poll now.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961
    Sandpit said:

    Floater said:

    RobD said:

    That would be a glorious first declaration.
    I need more beer, lots more beer - feck work tomorrow they will understand
    Champagne!!!
    Why didn't I get an emergency bottle? :(
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    It will be pretty sickening having returned to the Tory fold only 2 hours ago, to relish an 86 majority, and then find over the night that the exit poll is a complete crock of shit - and we get an HP!
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,328
    Labour at 191 is going to find it difficult to find decent peolle to.oppose the Govt. It was bad before the GE now its going to be rertible
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    DeClareDeClare Posts: 483

    If the SNP are on 55 in Scotland that’s quite a few Tory losses to be made up in England...

    Apart from the major cities, it seems that the Tories have virtually swept the board in England and much of Wales too.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,789
    kinabalu said:

    Biggest betting profit of my life.

    But I feel physically sick.

    😟

    Not my best, but I expect to make a profit of £120 on bets of £50.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    BBC projecting Halifax, Workington, Wakefield as Tory gains
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,123
    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    It will be pretty sickening having returned to the Tory fold only 2 hours ago, to relish an 86 majority, and then find over the night that the exit poll is a complete crock of shit - and we get an HP!

    Naughty :o
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    GIN1138 said:

    Something. Has. Changed.

    The situation has changed, not necessarily to the Marxist's advantage
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    Jo Swinson was Nicola Sturgeon’s useful idiot.

    Yup.

    But fair play to you you fought your corner for three years. Good for you.

    You’ll get a rejoin vote one day.
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    So do we retrospectively decide it was a great campaign now?
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    Ave_it said:

    46-32 per Sky and TSE twitter

    If it is that big, with a shattering in the north, I hink the exit poll is likely to be optimistic for Labour.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    46-32 per Sky and TSE twitter

    Take the best Tory / worst Labour convention back in play.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,209
    kinabalu said:

    Biggest betting profit of my life.

    But I feel physically sick.

    😟

    Stuff it all in your mouth you and your anti-semites.
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    That depends when in 2024. Wilson won in 1974.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Biggest Labour to Con swing post war - worst Labour result in well, ages
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    So do we retrospectively decide it was a great campaign now?

    Utterly magnificent. I can't think of one bad moment for the Tories. Labour on the other hand? Dreadful.
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    Where have LD voters gone in NE Scotland? To both SNP and to CON according to BBC.

    If true, that is amazing. We all assumed that the LD voters were strongly Unionist. The SNP in Aberdeen don’t believe the exit poll.
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    Bad news guys, the BBC website appears unable to cope with the strain. It keeps crashing for me.
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    Holy crap projecting 58/37 in DUDLEY NORTH
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,011
    DavidL said:

    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.

    Brexit means the end of the union. You backed the wrong side in 2016.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,503
    Andy_JS said:

    Flavible were very close the exit poll with their latest prediction:

    https://flavible.co.uk/currentProjection

    And the final YouGov MRP was not very accurate, was it?

    This is my posting from last night;
    Foxy said:

    I don't think much has changed through the campaign. Foxy's Final prediction.

    Con 360
    Lab 201
    SNP 43
    LD 21
    PC 4
    Green 1
    Ind 1
    Speaker 1
    NI 18


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    nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The perfect outcome for Nicola Sturgeon .

    Game over for the UK .
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    I actually think some of the projected wins are unrealistic although I hope the Tories do get more in Scotland. I reckon the overall result could be right but some of the seat results just seem wild.
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    YokesYokes Posts: 1,200

    rcs1000 said:

    Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.

    RIP Corbynism.

    Thank you and goodnight Swinson.

    Be careful what you wish for, the next LD leader is less likely to be incompetent.
    Good! I want a sensible LD Party. The Tories will have been in power the better part of a decade and a half already and we need an opposition to hold us to account - and a sane opposition to take over when we fall.

    If Corbynistas refuse to let their grip go of the Labour Party over this then this country needs a strong Lib Dem Party to challenge them on the left.
    I want the Liberal party program of 1911 -

    1) Social insurance for all.
    2) Social justice and equality.
    3) Free trade expanded though out the Empire/Commonwelath
    4) Sensible spending plans balanced against taxation.
    5) A commitment to build twice as many Dreadnoughts as the German Navy.
    I think 3 & 5 are where we should go. You get political parties these days talking about being radical but those, those are radical.
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    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,440
    Congratulations you lot, looks like the country voted for a different plan. Just a shame I've got to live in it. ;)
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Virtually all of the effort and money that Labour has expended this campaign will have been spaffed up a wall. Six weeks, utterly wasted.

    Unions aren't going to be happy.
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    DavidL said:

    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.

    You were warned that Brexit would likely see Scotland secede.
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    LD in East Dunbartonshire believe that Swinson has just held on.
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    ETA for the first declaration?
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    wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,913
    11% swing predicted in Dudley lmfao
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Dudley projected 11% swing - BBC
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108

    So do we retrospectively decide it was a great campaign now?

    Do not confuse ‘great’ with ‘successful.’
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    So do we retrospectively decide it was a great campaign now?

    1987 all over again...
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Sandpit said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Lefty Twitter going completely nuts :smiley:
    Re Owen Jones' post - No, Corbyn and Swinson, by refusing to co-operate have let in the Tories, if the final poll is right.
    With respect, the LDs are not a sub-division of the Labour Party (or vv). They have different interests and different supporters.
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    The sad thing for me is the youth, who seemed so engaged and interested. This is going to shatter them - and that is going to be bad for all of us.

    I won't lie and say I'm very depressed with this result.

    All the best to you all for now.

    maybe you'll get a decent centre left party rather than a gang of thick racist marxists - chin up
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Dawn Butler on ITV
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    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Virtually all of the effort and money that Labour has expended this campaign will have been spaffed up a wall. Six weeks, utterly wasted.

    Unions aren't going to be happy.

    Some unions are culpable.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,961

    Holy crap projecting 58/37 in DUDLEY NORTH

    11% swing.
This discussion has been closed.