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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson gets his wish. The irony is that Jo Swinson made

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  • Fair play to Malc if the exit poll is close to the numbers, I think he was the only indy supporter on here that was bullish about the SNP's chances.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,912
    edited December 2019
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,336
    I always thought Boris's buffoon act would go down well with swing voters outside London and the south-east.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,191
    felix said:

    Labour MUST head for the centre ground - for the good of the nation.

    God yes!!!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,397
    Andy_JS said:

    Byronic said:

    MrEd said:

    But let's see the Scotland numbers - how accurate were they last time?

    I predict the SNP will be sub-50
    I agree. If there's one thing wrong with this exit poll it's the SNP on 55.
    Why?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,434
    Foxy said:

    Assuming the poll is accurate, which of the Labour leadership candidates will be getting their P45?

    How safe are Podcock, Long Bailey and Rayner?

    Pidcock is gone. Long Bailey will be fine though, she had a mammoth majority.

    Rayner might be close. 63% leave.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,225
    So, the LDs are forecast to lose four in Scotland. That means they're only expected to lose one of their three English Leave seats: Carshalton, North Norfolk and Eastbourne.

    Of those, NN is clearly the most vulnerable given the popular incumbent is stepping down. But it's not impossible, of course, that they lose more than one of these.
  • tlg86 said:

    nico67 said:

    Horrific exit poll for Labour and catastrophic for the Union.

    SNP on 55 !

    Boris (if he wins his seat) should announce a second Scottish Referendum.
    I think he will. But on CON terms, not the SNP’s.
    Leave / Remain
    Yepp.

    Very Boris.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108
    Where's that Cameron video about Twitter and Britain?
  • I'm missing Dimblebore...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157
    Fenster said:

    A confident Boris with the shackles off? Will he be brave enough to rediscover his liberalism and betray the ERG?

    I hope so.

    Yes this must be the hope of plenty of Cons supporters. Me included.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,501
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    46% is the biggest Conservative vote share since 1970.

    In the end, I think a lot of people were petrified by Corbyn.

    I think it's really as simple as that.
    I think Orwell had something to say about people like teachers, ex-army officers in the 1930's, who lived in straitened circumstances, who could well be won over to Labour, but who took one look at the hard left, and could not wait to go out to vote Conservative.
  • Lewis Goodall's Labour sources singing like canaries.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816

    Fair play to Malc if the exit poll is close to the numbers, I think he was the only indy supporter on here that was bullish about the SNP's chances.

    He always is hah
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,519
    Boris must immediately stop the BBC boosting its revenue (above plan) by £450m from June 2020.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    Corbyn to quit Nick Robinson reports, question now when
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180

    EPG said:

    Surely Boris just stops SNP holding referendum..

    Then it's the Catalan strategy, which seems to work.
    “Work” as in working towards a fascist state.
    Do you think he will force all children to be spied on by state appointed apparatchiks? Is he that sort of Fascist?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,336

    Andy_JS said:

    Byronic said:

    MrEd said:

    But let's see the Scotland numbers - how accurate were they last time?

    I predict the SNP will be sub-50
    I agree. If there's one thing wrong with this exit poll it's the SNP on 55.
    Why?
    Just a hunch. Probably wrong.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,304
    One wonders just how much damage Ashworths comments made . I bet he feels sick . As a Labour supporter I’m bitterly disappointed but have to take it on the chin .

    The EU will be happy , they’ll get the deal through.

    The biggest losers apart from Labour and the Lib Dems are the DUP who have screwed themselves .
  • DavidL said:

    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.


    Prediction not "result". Lets hope the result isn't quite as dire.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,599
    GIN1138 said:

    John McDonnel looked ashen faced and utterly broken! :D

    Genuinely made me happy to see that
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 2,463
    edited December 2019
    PB Tories - congrats. Enjoy the night!

    I did predict a Tory majority but slightly undercooked the numbers!

    Corbyn has been a disaster - an utter disaster!! Corbyn, McDonnell and McCluskey need to go as soon as possible!

    I am sad, very sad. We will now Brexit and quite likely leave the EU via a hard Brexit. Corbyn has been an accomplice to that. Shame on him!

    Progressive politics as well as the Union is in tatters.

    Scotland to go indy in 2021/22 for sure.

  • dodrade said:

    DavidL said:

    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.

    I expect support will ebb when Brexit actually happens and the sky does not fall on our heads after all.
    No it will get worse. Scotland feels like a million miles from England.
    You’re wasting your breath. They neither know nor care.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    The perfect outcome for Nicola Sturgeon .

    Game over for the UK .

    No, Boris will just do a Rajoy and ban indyref2, with a majority of 86 he is all powerful now
    You think banning independence is a good long-term strategy? History is against you.
    Spain suggests not and Scotland has already had 1 indyref unlike Catalonia which has had 0
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,281

    Thank you Andrew Marr.

    Cheerio Licence Fee, Channel 4.....

    I agree with you that this is FAR more important than is generally understood. It is a move toward the USA / Republican / angry WWC model for five years, starting with opening up markets in food and healthcare.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,336
    IanB2 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Dudley projected 11% swing - BBC

    Where can I see this data? Can you give a link please.
    It’s on TV
    The red button?
  • So. Dominic Cummings was right. Again. Wonder what his plans are for stopping or winning Indyref2?
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 404

    dodrade said:

    DavidL said:

    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.

    I expect support will ebb when Brexit actually happens and the sky does not fall on our heads after all.
    No it will get worse. Scotland feels like a million miles from England.
    Are they really going to vote to give their fishing grounds back to the EU?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,336
    Worse than Foot.

    We will see by tomorrow morning, if he is worse than Lansbury.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Alistair said:

    SNP seat line down to 54.5 on Betfair.

    Act fast.

    I agree. There is money here. I suspect Tory seats will stick in Scotland, SNP high 40s.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108
    edited December 2019
    I forgot we have two hours of waffling before the first result. :(
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,816
    Ruth Davidson !!
  • HYUFD said:

    Corbyn to quit Nick Robinson reports, question now when

    Bit late now
  • GIN1138 said:

    Hopefully the British Jewish community will be feeling a little happier tonight.

    The chance exists that some will look for them to blame for Labour's failure.
  • Dudley projected 11% swing - BBC

    Ian Austin is a hero - proper Labour
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180
    edited December 2019
    I do hope this twit Skwawkbox is stripped of every penny he possesses. Total imbecile with the integrity of a Goebbels.

    Mind you, Dr Peters is of course no better.

    Edit - bloody hell though, Richard Burgon’s delusion is just epic...
  • YokesYokes Posts: 54
    If Labour can transpose their grasp of economics to their view of the vote, they might be able to predict that they won.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 1,988
    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Surely Boris just stops SNP holding referendum..

    Of course.
    Well, that's not going to set off a worsening Scottish sense of grievance, is it?
    So long as the Tories can keep winning in England, a full house north of the border for the SNP means the Tories can keep instilling fear of SNP in coalition with Labour, which wins the Tories more seats in England, wash, rinse, repeat.

    Thank heavens for the SNP!
  • Pulpstar said:

    Ruth Davidson !!

    Even better than Paddy Ashdown's hat.
  • Alan Johnson on ITV Laying about Corbynism.

    I miss him.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,699
    It's like a wake on the BBC!
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,795
    No exit poll has materially overstated a CON outcome since 1983
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,912
    This was inevitable. They are going to try this spin.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,397
    DavidL said:

    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.

    You have reaped what you have sowed. Perhaps you should start listening to your children.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,938

    So. Dominic Cummings was right. Again. Wonder what his plans are for stopping or winning Indyref2?

    That's easy. We'll cut off benefits the moment you vote for independence. It won't be nicey nice like last time.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,160
    Foxy said:

    Byronic said:

    Surely Boris just stops SNP holding referendum..

    Of course.
    Well, that's not going to set off a worsening Scottish sense of grievance, is it?
    If they want to go we should let them - but the leaving negotiations will not be fun for Scotland
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,225

    DavidL said:

    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.


    Prediction not "result". Lets hope the result isn't quite as dire.
    There are going to be a tonne of Scottish seats where the majority is less than a thousand either way. It's why I suspect the 55 number is slightly too high. Simply the SNP is forecast to capture a lot by a little, and some of those will probably fall slightly short.
  • In truth, I don't know what Labour can even do. They don't have a Blair type figure waiting in the wings from what I can see and they're so far behind, how can they even come back next time?
  • ydoethur said:

    It occurs to me that this is the first election since I think 1865 an incumbent government has lost a majority and regained it.

    It also occurs to me this is the first time since 1983 that the exit poll has predicted a Tory majority. In 1987, 1992 and 2015 it predicted a hung parliament.

    Hang on, didn't Lord Ashdown threaten to eat his hat in 2015?
  • Alan Johnson talking a lot of sense.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513

    Andy_JS said:

    Byronic said:

    MrEd said:

    But let's see the Scotland numbers - how accurate were they last time?

    I predict the SNP will be sub-50
    I agree. If there's one thing wrong with this exit poll it's the SNP on 55.
    Why?
    If Orkeny and Shetland fall it is a change so massive that it would surely have been picked up by anecdote.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,172
    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    A confident Boris with the shackles off? Will he be brave enough to rediscover his liberalism and betray the ERG?

    I hope so.

    Yes this must be the hope of plenty of Cons supporters. Me included.
    The evidence of his first cabinet purge suggests very much the opposite.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,667
    Andrew said:

    Foxy said:

    Assuming the poll is accurate, which of the Labour leadership candidates will be getting their P45?

    How safe are Podcock, Long Bailey and Rayner?

    Pidcock is gone. Long Bailey will be fine though, she had a mammoth majority.

    Rayner might be close. 63% leave.
    Rayner should be OK, I'd think. Stalybridge & Hyde might fall though, against my expectation.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,280
    rcs1000 said:

    So, the LDs are forecast to lose four in Scotland. That means they're only expected to lose one of their three English Leave seats: Carshalton, North Norfolk and Eastbourne.

    Of those, NN is clearly the most vulnerable given the popular incumbent is stepping down. But it's not impossible, of course, that they lose more than one of these.
    Remember that the exit poll is a lot cruder than the MRP. It may be good at forecasting the overall national position but isn’t necessarily going to be able to pick and choose between individual third party gains and losses
  • 65 seats too close to call, so if you want to put in a bet, bet on 303 seats! LOL!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,671
    First shots being fired in the Labour civil war.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157

    GIN1138 said:

    Hopefully the British Jewish community will be feeling a little happier tonight.

    The chance exists that some will look for them to blame for Labour's failure.
    There has been a general caution issued to the Jewish community for precisely this reason.
  • ydoethur said:

    Surely Boris just stops SNP holding referendum..

    Nah. He’ll gladly spaf the Union up the wall.
    I am sure Johnson will concede a referendum on independence if he’s sure whichever side he backs can win it.

    Which side that is, I don’t know (and I mean that).
    Indeed.

    Boris cares about Boris. Brexit and the Union are merely tools to be used, and discarded.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513
    Pulpstar said:

    Ruth Davidson !!

    Tried to set an unrealistically high bat for the SNP. Got tripped up by her own cleverness.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108

    65 seats too close to call, so if you want to put in a bet, bet on 303 seats! LOL!

    Could be 420 tories.

    (blaze it!)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,225
    Byronic said:

    Alistair said:

    SNP seat line down to 54.5 on Betfair.

    Act fast.

    I agree. There is money here. I suspect Tory seats will stick in Scotland, SNP high 40s.
    I suspect the LDs will hold one Scottish seat, probably O&S. But I might be wrong, of course.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,336
    It'll be amazing if Geoff Boycott's Hemsworth constituency goes to the Tories.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180
    Ave_it said:

    No exit poll has materially overstated a CON outcome since 1983

    1997 put them on ?211 seats
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    So it looks like the major turnout was LEAVERS
  • Laura K, rumour that Tories win Hemsworth.....
  • murali_s said:

    PB Tories - congrats. Enjoy the night!

    I did predict a Tory majority but slightly undercooked the numbers!

    Corbyn has been a disaster - an utter disaster!! Corbyn, McDonnell and McCluskey need to go as soon as possible!

    I am sad, very sad. We will now Brexit and quite likely leave the EU via a hard Brexit. Corbyn has been an accomplice to that. Shame on him!

    Progressive politics as well as the Union is in tatters.

    Scotland to go indy in 2021/22 for sure.

    Very generous of you and labour need to move away from Corbyn and his associates
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,280
    Big_Ian said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ruth Davidson !!

    Even better than Paddy Ashdown's hat.
    As long as we don’t have to watch
  • RobD said:

    65 seats too close to call, so if you want to put in a bet, bet on 303 seats! LOL!

    Could be 420 tories.

    (blaze it!)
    Yup do that!
  • DavidL said:

    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.


    Prediction not "result". Lets hope the result isn't quite as dire.
    I'd take 49 seats if it means Ruth keeps her kit on.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,336
    edited December 2019
    The original MRP figures for Blyth Valley was as follows:

    Lab 43%
    Con 37%
    BRX 11%
    LD 5%
    Grn 3%

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ry90s0oDXu6_LhDKNiI6fXaSFJsfMBaAXI6cZ8XhqQ8/edit#gid=0
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,101
    There is going to be a lot of blood on the carpet in the Labour party tonight. I think you'll see Momentum get vicious now.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,160
    edited December 2019

    The BBC are gutted. Katya Adler, Marr...

    You should hear Bercow - his pain is my gain
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,795
    rcs1000 said:

    DavidL said:

    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.


    Prediction not "result". Lets hope the result isn't quite as dire.
    There are going to be a tonne of Scottish seats where the majority is less than a thousand either way. It's why I suspect the 55 number is slightly too high. Simply the SNP is forecast to capture a lot by a little, and some of those will probably fall slightly short.
    I still think CON will keep some of their NE Scotland seats
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108
    OMG. Perhaps a result in 7-8 minutes!
  • Byronic said:

    So it looks like the major turnout was LEAVERS

    Sam Freedman on Twitter this afternoon was saying he was hearing 'Gammonquake' was going to carry the day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180

    65 seats too close to call, so if you want to put in a bet, bet on 303 seats! LOL!

    A lot of those are Labour.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,812
    First seat Blyth Valley could be close?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,157
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    A confident Boris with the shackles off? Will he be brave enough to rediscover his liberalism and betray the ERG?

    I hope so.

    Yes this must be the hope of plenty of Cons supporters. Me included.
    The evidence of his first cabinet purge suggests very much the opposite.
    Yes we shall see. Then again if Lab go for the one more push approach I'll vote Cons again in 2024.
  • DavidL said:

    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.

    You were warned that Brexit would likely see Scotland secede.
    Which was the most positive reason for voting leave. Stage one of the route to an Independent England.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108
    @FrancisUrquhart are you ready?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,912

    murali_s said:

    PB Tories - congrats. Enjoy the night!

    I did predict a Tory majority but slightly undercooked the numbers!

    Corbyn has been a disaster - an utter disaster!! Corbyn, McDonnell and McCluskey need to go as soon as possible!

    I am sad, very sad. We will now Brexit and quite likely leave the EU via a hard Brexit. Corbyn has been an accomplice to that. Shame on him!

    Progressive politics as well as the Union is in tatters.

    Scotland to go indy in 2021/22 for sure.

    Very generous of you and labour need to move away from Corbyn and his associates
    And we will. Meanwhile you're stuck with Boris.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    Foxy said:

    TOPPING said:

    Fenster said:

    A confident Boris with the shackles off? Will he be brave enough to rediscover his liberalism and betray the ERG?

    I hope so.

    Yes this must be the hope of plenty of Cons supporters. Me included.
    The evidence of his first cabinet purge suggests very much the opposite.
    Night night
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,693
    If Robert Smithson is around, well done. Also while I was terrifying myself because JCIPM seemed inevitable, it was good to have a sane and detached voice from outside pointing out the realities to have some hope to hang on to.

    So BJIPM. I can't say I'm looking forward to the prospect with untrammelled joy, but I'm much happier with this result than Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister.
    Now please can we have a left-of-centre party that people can vote for?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,519
    Big rule in modern UK / US politics: You have to win at your first shot.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    Anyway, off to Epping Forest count, catch you later
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,126

    ydoethur said:

    Surely Boris just stops SNP holding referendum..

    Nah. He’ll gladly spaf the Union up the wall.
    I am sure Johnson will concede a referendum on independence if he’s sure whichever side he backs can win it.

    Which side that is, I don’t know (and I mean that).
    Indeed.

    Boris cares about Boris. Brexit and the Union are merely tools to be used, and discarded.
    Probably true. Again, if the Exit Poll is accurate then Scexit increases the Tory majority down in London by about 50.
  • Fair play to Malc if the exit poll is close to the numbers, I think he was the only indy supporter on here that was bullish about the SNP's chances.

    Yepp.

    Credit where credit is due.

    (I said 41. Doh!)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,308
    edited December 2019

    65 seats too close to call, so if you want to put in a bet, bet on 303 seats! LOL!

    I wonder how the exit pollsters dealt with that, in that case.

    If they got that wrong, it would make the egg on face of the pollsters of last time look like a guard of an honour and 21-cannon salute.

    But I doubt it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180

    Laura K, rumour that Tories win Hemsworth.....

    I did tip that one a few days ago.
  • LAB: worst result since 1935 (BBC).
  • murali_s said:

    PB Tories - congrats. Enjoy the night!

    I did predict a Tory majority but slightly undercooked the numbers!

    Corbyn has been a disaster - an utter disaster!! Corbyn, McDonnell and McCluskey need to go as soon as possible!

    I am sad, very sad. We will now Brexit and quite likely leave the EU via a hard Brexit. Corbyn has been an accomplice to that. Shame on him!

    Progressive politics as well as the Union is in tatters.

    Scotland to go indy in 2021/22 for sure.

    Very generous of you and labour need to move away from Corbyn and his associates
    Yes. We need Labour to be a competent, sensible opposition because it will keep the Tories honest. I am not joking.
  • Has Dom wargamed this?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108

    LAB: worst result since 1935 (BBC).

    Happy times.
  • RobD said:

    @FrancisUrquhart are you ready?

    No, BBC have totally changed their results page. Working on it now.
This discussion has been closed.