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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson gets his wish. The irony is that Jo Swinson made

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  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,818
    BBC exit poll has Burger 61% chance to gain Finchley
  • OK, so who had an open Con Buy on the spreads?

    (Full disclosure: I've still got my LibDem sell at 45 open).
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,488
    Ave_it said:

    BBC exit polls projection - CON gain Blyth Valley?

    Erm. Any news on Bootle? :o
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,457

    How could the MRP be so wrong?

    It was lucky last time, perhaps.

    Nate Silver basically said as much a few weeks back. I thought he was just being bitchy, but maybe more in it.
  • How could the MRP be so wrong?

    Must have been all the views Andrew Neil and Phoneygate got! :smile:

    Do we have an update on those crucial figures?
  • BJ was right not to do Andrew Neil
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,192
    Suppose Boris would be keen on A Neil interview now!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,257
    What better testament to the Cons' efficacy than McDonnell actually repeating Boris' election mantra.
  • Amazing to see the hypocrisy of Tory Leavers on here queuing up to say Scotland should not be allowed a 2nd referendum.

    Yes, the Scottish should get to choose. Once per SNP majority seems fair.
    A mandate is a mandate is a mandate.

    A majority of Scotland’s parliamentarians back a second referendum.

    The Tories can stall, but they cannot block. Unless they really do intend to steer towards dictatorship.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 2,058
    Could Ed Miliband be in trouble?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,349
    Chingford and Woodford Con hold - BBC prediction.
  • dodrade said:

    DavidL said:

    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.

    I expect support will ebb when Brexit actually happens and the sky does not fall on our heads after all.
    No it will get worse. Scotland feels like a million miles from England.
    You’re wasting your breath. They neither know nor care.

    maybe they do care but think it's up to the scottish people
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 757
    Artist said:

    BBC exit poll has Burger 61% chance to gain Finchley

    Would be beautiful
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,283

    Hello, it's BluerBluer - got weirdly stuck in "Applicant" role in my other account and was unable to post.

    What a night, eh?

    it's a terrriiiiiible night for the .... errr Labour
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,818
    Swinson 95% to lose according to the Exit poll projection
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Not looking good for the Yorkshire party in Harrogate.
  • chloechloe Posts: 303
    61% chance of Lib Dem gain in Finchley & Golders Green according to exit poll.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,470
    BBC:

    "Birmingham Northfield
    Likely Conservative gain from Labour
    98% chance"
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    IDS is safe according to the Exit Poll.
  • Artist said:

    Swinson 95% to lose according to the Exit poll projection

    Not Prime Minister Jo Swinson?
  • BBC individual seat exit poll:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50424263
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 1,472
    Labour needs to start with an announcement, no matter who gets the gig post Corbyn, of the mother of all enquiries into antisemitism in the party.

    This was never a partisan point, and as of 53 minutes ago there is zero mileage in pretending that it is a partisan point. It is simply the truth.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,230
    edited December 2019

    Amazing to see the hypocrisy of Tory Leavers on here queuing up to say Scotland should not be allowed a 2nd referendum.

    What hypocrisy? They've argued the UK shouldn't have a second Brexit referendum - don't keep holding referendums until you get the result you want.
    Until the cows come home.

  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 1,275
    edited December 2019

    Amazing to see the hypocrisy of Tory Leavers on here queuing up to say Scotland should not be allowed a 2nd referendum.

    Yes, the Scottish should get to choose. Once per SNP majority seems fair.
    A mandate is a mandate is a mandate.

    A majority of Scotland’s parliamentarians back a second referendum.

    The Tories can stall, but they cannot block. Unless they really do intend to steer towards dictatorship.
    I agree completely.

    Edit- Basically it’s none of my business and for the Scots to decide in elections whether the SNP take the piss and have too many.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098
    Crazy, 55 snp seats but Perth and north Perthshire tctc!!
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,701

    How could the MRP be so wrong?

    We've not had the results in yet, so it might be right, plus there may have been late swing back to the Tories yesterday and today.
    Also note MRP1 <> MRP2. MRP1 - as in 2017 - was reasonably close. Assuminf, of course, the exit poll is accurate!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,470
    Andrew said:

    How could the MRP be so wrong?

    It was lucky last time, perhaps.

    Nate Silver basically said as much a few weeks back. I thought he was just being bitchy, but maybe more in it.
    The first version was very close, as it was in 2017. The updated version was not as good in 2017 and isn't as good this time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039
    Chesterfield - TCTC
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Rabb also safe according to the Exit Poll.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098
    Lab to lose Canterbury but hold Kensington on exit poll
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    Stocky said:

    How could the MRP be so wrong?

    Much of the polling has been.
    MRP was about right the first time.
    Just like 2017...
  • kingbongo said:

    dodrade said:

    DavidL said:

    Utterly horrified by the SNP result. Just disastrous.

    I expect support will ebb when Brexit actually happens and the sky does not fall on our heads after all.
    No it will get worse. Scotland feels like a million miles from England.
    You’re wasting your breath. They neither know nor care.

    maybe they do care but think it's up to the scottish people
    Good. If it’s up to the Scottish people, let’s have that Section 30 pronto.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039
    Stocky said:

    Could Ed Miliband be in trouble?

    I bloody well hope not! Exit Poll gives him 99%+ chance.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,283
    Gabs3 said:

    Artist said:

    BBC exit poll has Burger 61% chance to gain Finchley

    Would be beautiful
    "oh jew baiter Corbyn"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,993
    95% chance Swinson gone
  • Amazing to see the hypocrisy of Tory Leavers on here queuing up to say Scotland should not be allowed a 2nd referendum.

    What hypocrisy? They've argued the UK shouldn't have a second Brexit referendum - don't keep holding referendums until you get the result you want.
    Until the cows come home.

    "Once in a lifetime"

    Not "off the cuff remark" - but in the SNP Government White Paper.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,488
    Farage, you strategic genius. :o:D
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,420

    RobD said:

    Labour projected to be down 17% in Sunderland South. 11% swing!

    Will be a bloodbath in the North East if that type of result is common.
    Paging Gallowgate
  • llefllef Posts: 295
    apparetnyl ceredigion is a coin flip between plaid and libs - cons 6% chance
  • Edinburgh’s five declarations expected approx 4 am.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,327
    edited December 2019
    Never known the exit poll to differ so wildly from the anecdata. If Beaconsfield and Esher are 99% chance of a Tory hold, then legions numbers of people must have been effectively voting in trappist-like silence, in terms of anecdotal feedback.

    Bordering on the bizarre. Anecdotes are often out, but not by as much as that.

    Similarly, there must have been a steady stream of effectively silent Tory voters across the provincial north.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 1,472
    Pulpstar said:

    95% chance Swinson gone

    Best thing for her, as tlg86 has astutely observed.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,420
    Ave_it said:

    BBC exit polls projection - CON gain Blyth Valley?

    Really?
  • 65 seats too close to call, so if you want to put in a bet, bet on 303 seats! LOL!

    Many of those are currently in the Labour column...
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,770

    Alan Johnson on ITV Laying about Corbynism.

    I miss him.

    He was pretty robust. Retirement does that though.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,433
    edited December 2019
    Stocky said:

    Could Ed Miliband be in trouble?

    BBC says Doncaster North 99% chance of Lab based on exit poll suggests EdM safe... Doncaster Central (Rosie Winterton) too close to call, about a 1 in 3 chance of a Tory win!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,756
    So does this mean no free broadband? Bugger.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039
    Raab 99% and Guildford 99% Tory too. Winchester and St Ives are TCTC.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,156
    Going through the BBC exit poll predictions. 95% chance that Swinson is toast.
  • Mr. Dickson, is it up to the Scottish people?

    You're keen to ignore what they said a few years ago.

    If they voted to stay in the UK again you'd be keen to ignore that.

    Democracy isn't asking the same question over and over again until you get the answer that you want.

  • BBC journalist at Inverness count absolutely dripping with hatred for SNP. They never learn.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,283

    Can somebody take Barnesian's shoe laces and belt please?

    LOL
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 1,472

    So does this mean no free broadband? Bugger.

    :smiley:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,498
    91% LD hold in North Norfolk in the exit poll
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    95% chance Swinson gone

    Best thing for her, as tlg86 has astutely observed.
    The Girl Guides need a new Mother Superior. Or whatever they’re called.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098
    The border seats look safe except D and G close, perth and north Perthshire a toss up, small chance in ab west and kincardine. Tories in scotland 2 to 4 seats I'd suggest
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,455
    kjohnw1 said:

    BJ was right not to do Andrew Neil

    No, he was wrong not to do it. He could have done it and won handsomely anyway. Instead he proved himself a coward.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Orkney is a possible SNP gain according to the Exit Poll.
    That doesn't feel correct.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 13,039
    Cheltenham a 92% change for the Lib Dems. Cheadle another possible, too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,595
    edited December 2019
    Blyth Valley expected to declare by now. Higher turnout or a recount?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,313
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC:

    "Birmingham Northfield
    Likely Conservative gain from Labour
    98% chance"

    Birmingham Erdington 55% chance Conservative......
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 2,653
    matt said:

    matt said:

    I

    rcs1000 said:

    Con 100 majority and Scotland gone would be a perfect storm.

    RIP Corbynism.

    Thank you and goodnight Swinson.

    Be careful what you wish for, the next LD leader is less likely to be incompetent.
    Good! I want a sensible LD Party. The Tories will have been in power the better part of a decade and a half already and we need an opposition to hold us to account - and a sane opposition to take over when we fall.

    If Corbynistas refuse to let their grip go of the Labour Party over this then this country needs a strong Lib Dem Party to challenge them on the left.
    I want the Liberal party program of 1911 -

    1) Social insurance for all.
    2) Social justice and equality.
    3) Free trade expanded though out the Empire/Commonwelath
    4) Sensible spending plans balanced against taxation.
    5) A commitment to build twice as many Dreadnoughts as the German Navy.
    We want 8 and we won’t wait. But what will we do with all those fleet carriers?
    A fellow historian. Makes you wonder if the new QE class will serve as long and as well as the ones that Churchill laid down. It must have been strange to watch them go to the the breakers, for him, in 1948.
    The history of HMS Vanguard is telling.

    A job as a professional historian btw. Long in the past though.
    I always thought that the best joke of the era was that the weird sisters became the foundation of how modern navy's operate - Henderson wrote the book of carrier operations from Furious's bridge.
  • Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...
  • The map of England and probably Wales is going to look very, very, very blue tomorrow. North West, Midlands and even North East outside of large cities turning blue. There'll be red dots in the cities and that's it.
  • Still no results declared. Got to be bad for Labour
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,595
    Bugger. Nigel Farage did what I did,

    That doesn’t feel agreeable.
  • Mr. Dickson, is it up to the Scottish people?

    You're keen to ignore what they said a few years ago.

    If they voted to stay in the UK again you'd be keen to ignore that.

    Democracy isn't asking the same question over and over again until you get the answer that you want.

    The Scottish people get to decide that in elections by (if they want) turfing out the SNP. If the SNP wins elections, there should be independence referendums. They can have one every week if they want, but if they keep losing and spending cash then the voters will take a view.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    So far IN scotland

    Fife NE too close to call 54% SNP chance
    Ayr Carrick and Cumnock 83% SNP chance
    Ochil and South Perth shire 88% SNP chance
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,457
    BBC forecast Blyth Cons 56% chance, ie kinda knife edge.

    Labour won that by 19% last election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,488

    Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...

    Wait, that letter was supposed to humiliate Boris?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,470

    BBC journalist at Inverness count absolutely dripping with hatred for SNP. They never learn.

    Do you expect the 55 figure to be correct?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,701
    Jesus, lots and lots of these are TCTC. We're not out of the woods yet!
  • Ozzy saying the Tory party will have to morph into Labour.
  • Mr. Abode, aye, and tacked on a referendum courtesy of a compliant Speaker.

    But still. We don't have a single result in. And the exit poll could be wrong.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,470
    nunu2 said:

    Ave_it said:

    BBC exit polls projection - CON gain Blyth Valley?

    Really?
    Yes.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    The border seats look safe except D and G close, perth and north Perthshire a toss up, small chance in ab west and kincardine. Tories in scotland 2 to 4 seats I'd suggest

    The scottish seats look weird in the Exit Poll.
    Gordon, Banf, Orkney going to the SNP while Perth being close.
    Computer says no.
  • speedy2 said:

    IDS is safe according to the Exit Poll.

    Ilford North 98% chance Labour hold :lol:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,793
    God, how bad can things get. I agree with John Rentoul. Lions laying down with lambs, cats befrending dogs, its the end of times.
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    Congratulations to the Tories on what will obviously be a sound majority. However there are some oddities in the exit poll forecast which suggest a fair margin of uncertainty even ignoring the large number of marginal seats in the forecast. Perhaps this is best shown by the Wimbledon forecast which gives the Tories a 49% chance, Labour 47% and the LDs 4%. Except that the Labour vote has collapsed and they will finish a poor 3rd. The overall forecast may be right, but the seat level results may show some wild errors.
  • BBC seat by seat exit poll looks very suspect.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 1,098

    Andy_JS said:

    BBC:

    "Birmingham Northfield
    Likely Conservative gain from Labour
    98% chance"

    Birmingham Erdington 55% chance Conservative......
    Dromey!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,470
    Bristol NW too close to call. Was expected to be a comfortable Labour hold.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,303
    Artist said:

    BBC exit poll has Burger 61% chance to gain Finchley

    I don't think that's going to happen.

    If it did, though, the LDs could do worse than pick her as their next leader.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,286

    Mr. Dickson, is it up to the Scottish people?

    You're keen to ignore what they said a few years ago.

    If they voted to stay in the UK again you'd be keen to ignore that.

    Democracy isn't asking the same question over and over again until you get the answer that you want.

    A silly argument. Scotland voted to remain in the UK five years & 3 general elections ago, in part due to the greater certainty that it would remain in the EU. The result was respected; Scotland remains in the UK. If the SNP will really offend its people with a second referendum, let the people punish them. We both know the people won't.
  • BBC: “greater than 99% chance” that the SNP have gained Stirling from SCON.

    “We are past peak Tory” (BBC)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,701
    Seems no chance of Chuka in cities.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,599
    Renfrewshire East 94% chance
    Dunbartonshire East 95% chance
    ABERDEEN South 93% chance
  • Remain MPs - Thank you, thank you, thank you for not taking Theresa May's soft Brexit.

    We couldn't have done this without you.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,455
    If the local detail of the EP is correct, Ms Wright in East Devon must be a campaigning genius to have overcome the Tories in East Devon when so many others will have tried and failed.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 1,795
    Blyth Valley: If CON are within 2% or 3% then all over

    Bet Ronnie Campbell is glad he gave it up!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 17,516
    Taking a lot longer than usual to get the first results. Turnout must be very high...
  • speedy2 said:

    Orkney is a possible SNP gain according to the Exit Poll.
    That doesn't feel correct.

    Bizarre. Don’t believe it for a second.

    But Caithness...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    Remainers have been outplayed. Shambolic antics for the last 3 years. Could have accepted May's deal...

    Indeed. And indeed. Swinson and Corbyn voted for the election. Everybody goes off to was whistling Dixie in the sun. Everybody comes home in the dark in tears. Silly people.
This discussion has been closed.