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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rebecca Long-Bailey soars to a 32% chance in the Corbyn succes

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Rebecca Long-Bailey soars to a 32% chance in the Corbyn successor betting

>Betdata.io chart of Betfair exchange market

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Comments

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,599
    edited December 2019
    Anyone is better than Corbyn! First?
  • Welcome to the Lollercoster
  • DYOR, but I reckon RBL is a lay on these numbers.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Rebecca Long Bailey.

    Bless.
  • Is it too late to persuade Jezza to stay on?
  • 3rd, like Lab in 2024 at this rate.
  • Or, if they really have to have a woman, can’t he transition and come back as Jessica?
  • Is it too late to persuade Jezza to stay on?

    Nope. But his family want him back home.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,599

    Is it too late to persuade Jezza to stay on?

    I am sure he is awaiting your call. Third time lucky?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited December 2019
    Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper. Not RLB, Starmer or Angela Rayner.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,599
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    Rebecca Long Bailey.

    Bless.

    If Fred West was your landlord, you would be happy to take a chance on Peter Rachman.
  • The contenders on Sky News now.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949

    There are a lot of unknowns at this stage. When is Corbyn actually going to quit and will LAB’s NEC amend the rules under which the contest takes place.

    Certainly lots of unknowns, but the General Secretary said today that the leadership contest will start on January 7th, so presumably Corbyn will stay on until the new leader is announced.

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/jeremy-corbyn-set-replaced-new-21103949
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    I've just realised that Labour are the Ottoman Empire in about 1870. And on an accelerated timetable of dismemberment.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,599
    Andy_JS said:

    Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper. Not RLB, Starmer or Angela Rayner.

    Good choices.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    FPT:
    Byronic said:

    And there’s more. Given there is no possible route to a Labour govt of any kind even with SNP support that doesn’t go through West Bromwich, Stoke, Leigh, and Grimsby, how “ rejoiny” can Labour be next time?

    If the EU, “North London”, the Lib Dem’s and the clever dick lawyers running off to court every five minutes or coming up with Byzantine Parliamentary wheezes had really accepted the vote of June 2016, they’d be in a better place now vis a vis our membership both now and in the future.

    They didn’t, they spent three years carpet bombing people like me that we were thick, racist, stupid etc etc. Well we won. I hope we can be more gracious than they’ve been.

    We need as a nation to rest, heal, and above all a bit of normality for a few years.

    +++

    Yes, this is why I think there won't be any Scots indyref for a while, let alone a YES vote. The nation is weary. Sturgeon knows this, she just has to feed her radical Nats some separatist ribeye

    On your point, the Remainers totally fucked up all of this, from the start. Indeed you could easily argue they fucked this up from about Maastricht, when any kind of referendum, if offered, would have stopped EU integration for the UK, but kept us in the EU.

    Instead they overplayed their hand all the way along, and in the end they have lost everything. Total wretched arrogance. Hubris/nemesis. Twats.

    How “rejoiny” can Labour (or the LDs or anyone) be next time? Well, let’s see how reale existierender Brexitismus pans out over the next five years, shall we?

    And as to hubris, what you Brexiteers seem to forget in your moment of triumph is that almost as many people voted to remain in the EU as to leave it, and it always used to be sensible politics that if you had a knife-edge divisive issue, you needed to work hard to compromise and make it as palatable for the dissenting minority as possible.

    So be careful. If you want keep your hard-won Brexit, remember that the harder a Brexit you impose, the more likely it'll be you'll trigger a reaction that will put the UK (or more likely England) back in the EU and with Schengen and the Euro to boot.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper. Not RLB, Starmer or Angela Rayner.

    Good choices.
    Yep.

    But the membership are mad and basically have no interest in winning power.
  • Byronic said:

    I've just realised that Labour are the Ottoman Empire in about 1870. And on an accelerated timetable of dismemberment.

    :lol: Like it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,236
    edited December 2019
    [deleted: double post]
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Byronic said:

    I've just realised that Labour are the Ottoman Empire in about 1870. And on an accelerated timetable of dismemberment.

    So who are the Young Turks and when do they turn up?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    I wonder which one the Tories fear the most. Will the pb Tories tell us?

    My guess is Lisa Nandy.

    Cooper is too tired and is tainted with Remain Chicanery, and Phillips is too divisive, empty-headed and opinionated.

    Angela Rayner is good, but I think Lisa Nandy could be better.

    (At the last Welsh Labour leadership elections, the potential leader and the potential deputy that the opposition parties feared the most both trailed in last).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    edited December 2019

    Andy_JS said:

    Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper. Not RLB, Starmer or Angela Rayner.

    Good choices.
    Yep.

    But the membership are mad and basically have no interest in winning power.
    I expect them to go for the names I've ruled out. 😊
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    Wearing my Tory hat, Nandy is the only one I reckon could prove a problem.

    She does human.

    The rest? Nah. I'm not even sure RLB is human. No evidence so far.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,599
    Byronic said:

    I've just realised that Labour are the Ottoman Empire in about 1870. And on an accelerated timetable of dismemberment.

    You might be right.

    With any other Tory PM the road back for Labour could be difficult and long. Don't forget Boris Johnson is now our PM, his unpredictability is such that Labour's fortunes could change for the better in a heartbeat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    A Long-Bailey and Burgon 'dream ticket' is apparently in the offing
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,599

    Andy_JS said:

    Lisa Nandy, Jess Phillips or Yvette Cooper. Not RLB, Starmer or Angela Rayner.

    Good choices.
    Yep.

    But the membership are mad and basically have no interest in winning power.
    This is true.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Reckon she might quietly back track on that once she realises the costs of living in London, even with MP perks. Of course it’s after tax as well, so not quite as generous as it seems.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited December 2019

    I wonder which one the Tories fear the most. Will the pb Tories tell us?

    My guess is Lisa Nandy.

    Cooper is too tired and is tainted with Remain Chicanery, and Phillips is too divisive, empty-headed and opinionated.

    Angela Rayner is good, but I think Lisa Nandy could be better.

    (At the last Welsh Labour leadership elections, the potential leader and the potential deputy that the opposition parties feared the most both trailed in last).

    Jess Phillips followed by Starmer, Nandy is not that bright and has no personality and despite supposedly being willing to accept Brexit consistently voted against the May and Boris Deal. Though Dawn Butler might be good but seems to me too London centric and tainted with Corbynism
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    Byronic said:

    And there’s more. Given there is no possible route to a Labour govt of any kind even with SNP support that doesn’t go through West Bromwich, Stoke, Leigh, and Grimsby, how “ rejoiny” can Labour be next time?

    If the EU, “North London”, the Lib Dem’s and the clever dick lawyers running off to court every five minutes or coming up with Byzantine Parliamentary wheezes had really accepted the vote of June 2016, they’d be in a better place now vis a vis our membership both now and in the future.

    They didn’t, they spent three years carpet bombing people like me that we were thick, racist, stupid etc etc. Well we won. I hope we can be more gracious than they’ve been.

    We need as a nation to rest, heal, and above all a bit of normality for a few years.

    +++

    Yes, this is why I think there won't be any Scots indyref for a while, let alone a YES vote. The nation is weary. Sturgeon knows this, she just has to feed her radical Nats some separatist ribeye

    On your point, the Remainers totally fucked up all of this, from the start. Indeed you could easily argue they fucked this up from about Maastricht, when any kind of referendum, if offered, would have stopped EU integration for the UK, but kept us in the EU.

    Instead they overplayed their hand all the way along, and in the end they have lost everything. Total wretched arrogance. Hubris/nemesis. Twats.

    How “rejoiny” can Labour (or the LDs or anyone) be next time? Well, let’s see how reale existierender Brexitismus pans out over the next five years, shall we?

    And as to hubris, what you Brexiteers seem to forget in your moment of triumph is that almost as many people voted to remain in the EU as to leave it, and it always used to be sensible politics that if you had a knife-edge divisive issue, you needed to work hard to compromise and make it as palatable for the dissenting minority as possible.

    So be careful. If you want keep your hard-won Brexit, remember that the harder a Brexit you impose, the more likely it'll be you'll trigger a reaction that will put the UK (or more likely England) back in the EU and with Schengen and the Euro to boot.
    There will be no move to rejoin for two decades minimum. Lord Heseltine was finally right about something.

    This has been such a trauma, any party suggesting a revisit and a new referendum, will be punished, most severely, at the polls. This is simply the case, because it is human nature. The memories have to fade for a generation before we can even think about a reversal.

    If Remainers were sensible they would now be quietly machinating for UK entry into EEA/EFTA. That is much more do-able, and, crucially, would not need a 2nd ref.
  • rpjs said:

    Byronic said:

    I've just realised that Labour are the Ottoman Empire in about 1870. And on an accelerated timetable of dismemberment.

    So who are the Young Turks and when do they turn up?
    Is there a Blair just elected in the 2019 intake?
  • I wonder which one the Tories fear the most. Will the pb Tories tell us?

    It's a lollercoster. I've already posted that.

    Personally, I like Cooper's demure and bet on her the time she stood.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    What if Corbyn stands down in Islington North and Laura Pidcock gets the Labour nomination?
  • HYUFD said:

    A Long-Bailey and Burgon 'dream ticket' is apparently in the offing

    Wow.

    Let's make it three more terms out of office rather than the usual two.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    edited December 2019
    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    Byronic said:

    And there’s more. Given there is no possible route to a Labour govt of any kind even with SNP support that doesn’t go through West Bromwich, Stoke, Leigh, and Grimsby, how “ rejoiny” can Labour be next time?

    If the EU, “North London”, the Lib Dem’s and the clever dick lawyers running off to court every five minutes or coming up with Byzantine Parliamentary wheezes had really accepted the vote of June 2016, they’d be in a better place now vis a vis our membership both now and in the future.

    They didn’t, they spent three years carpet bombing people like me that we were thick, racist, stupid etc etc. Well we won. I hope we can be more gracious than they’ve been.

    We need as a nation to rest, heal, and above all a bit of normality for a few years.

    +++

    Yes, this is why I think there won't be any Scots indyref for a while, let alone a YES vote. The nation is weary. Sturgeon knows this, she just has to feed her radical Nats some separatist ribeye

    On your point, the Remainers totally fucked up all of this, from the start. Indeed you could easily argue they fucked this up from about Maastricht, when any kind of referendum, if offered, would have stopped EU integration for the UK, but kept us in the EU.

    Instead they overplayed their hand all the way along, and in the end they have lost everything. Total wretched arrogance. Hubris/nemesis. Twats.

    How “rejoiny” can Labour (or the LDs or anyone) be next time? Well, let’s see how reale existierender Brexitismus pans out over the next five years, shall we?

    And as to hubris, what you Brexiteers seem to forget in your moment of triumph is that almost as many people voted to remain in the EU as to leave it, and it always used to be sensible politics that if you had a knife-edge divisive issue, you needed to work hard to compromise and make it as palatable for the dissenting minority as possible.

    So be careful. If you want keep your hard-won Brexit, remember that the harder a Brexit you impose, the more likely it'll be you'll trigger a reaction that will put the UK (or more likely England) back in the EU and with Schengen and the Euro to boot.
    Is it not “real” with no adjectival “e”, because it’s an adverb?

    Aber was weiss ich? Ich bin total doof.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,599
    HYUFD said:

    A Long-Bailey and Burgon 'dream ticket' is apparently in the offing

    Long-Bailey I could live with at a push. Burgon and dream are oxymoronic. Nightmare sums him up.

    I have been wittering on about anyone is better than Corbyn. In Burgon, I think you have found someone worse.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    HYUFD said:

    I wonder which one the Tories fear the most. Will the pb Tories tell us?

    My guess is Lisa Nandy.

    Cooper is too tired and is tainted with Remain Chicanery, and Phillips is too divisive, empty-headed and opinionated.

    Angela Rayner is good, but I think Lisa Nandy could be better.

    (At the last Welsh Labour leadership elections, the potential leader and the potential deputy that the opposition parties feared the most both trailed in last).

    Jess Phillips followed by Starmer, Nandy is not that bright and has no personality and despite supposedly being willing to accept Brexit consistently voted against the May and Boris Deal
    Phillips will surely provoke full-scale Labour Civil War ("stab in the front"). I think it would be the End of Labour.

    Nandy fecked up over Brexit, but the list of politicians who fecked up over Brexit is truly enormous.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    On past form of tactical brilliance Labour will endorse Brexit right before it happens, when there are no more votes in Leave and lots of votes in angry pro-EU ex-Remain.
  • Rebecca Wrong Daily would definitely be the "one more heave" candidate. So yes, expect her to win.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    There will be no move to rejoin for two decades minimum. Lord Heseltine was finally right about something.

    This has been such a trauma, any party suggesting a revisit and a new referendum, will be punished, most severely, at the polls. This is simply the case, because it is human nature. The memories have to fade for a generation before we can even think about a reversal.

    If Remainers were sensible they would now be quietly machinating for UK entry into EEA/EFTA. That is much more do-able, and, crucially, would not need a 2nd ref.

    Heseltine and the smart Remainers have always known that Rejoin was dead as an option. As many of us have been saying for many a month. It is why they had to throw everything at preventing us leaving in the first place. Plotting with EU lawyers, secret trysts with the Speaker, taking over the Executive's powers, Benn Act, killing their own careers dead - they tried everything.

    They were as subtle though as a turd in a punchbowl. Their duplicity had been visible to all who voted to Leave. No doubt some Remainers were embarrassed at their antics too. Thursday was the judgment passed on their desperate measures.

    The irony is that the consequence of their efforts is a Europhile-free majority that allows Boris to do anything he wants with the EU,
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    HYUFD said:

    A Long-Bailey and Burgon 'dream ticket' is apparently in the offing

    Tory wet dream more like.
  • Had a look at the Betfair market.

    Lollercoster.

    The value must be on John Bercow at 1000/1 (12 quid if you're quick)
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    welshowl said:

    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    Byronic said:

    And there’s more. Given there is no possible route to a Labour govt of any kind even with SNP support that doesn’t go through West Bromwich, Stoke, Leigh, and Grimsby, how “ rejoiny” can Labour be next time?

    If the EU, “North London”, the Lib Dem’s and the clever dick lawyers running off to court every five minutes or coming up with Byzantine Parliamentary wheezes had really accepted the vote of June 2016, they’d be in a better place now vis a vis our membership both now and in the future.

    They didn’t, they spent three years carpet bombing people like me that we were thick, racist, stupid etc etc. Well we won. I hope we can be more gracious than they’ve been.

    We need as a nation to rest, heal, and above all a bit of normality for a few years.

    +++

    Yes, this is why I think there won't be any Scots indyref for a while, let alone a YES vote. The nation is weary. Sturgeon knows this, she just has to feed her radical Nats some separatist ribeye

    On your point, the Remainers totally fucked up all of this, from the start. Indeed you could easily argue they fucked this up from about Maastricht, when any kind of referendum, if offered, would have stopped EU integration for the UK, but kept us in the EU.

    Instead they overplayed their hand all the way along, and in the end they have lost everything. Total wretched arrogance. Hubris/nemesis. Twats.

    How “rejoiny” can Labour (or the LDs or anyone) be next time? Well, let’s see how reale existierender Brexitismus pans out over the next five years, shall we?

    And as to hubris, what you Brexiteers seem to forget in your moment of triumph is that almost as many people voted to remain in the EU as to leave it, and it always used to be sensible politics that if you had a knife-edge divisive issue, you needed to work hard to compromise and make it as palatable for the dissenting minority as possible.

    So be careful. If you want keep your hard-won Brexit, remember that the harder a Brexit you impose, the more likely it'll be you'll trigger a reaction that will put the UK (or more likely England) back in the EU and with Schengen and the Euro to boot.
    Is it not “real” with no adjectival “e”, because it’s an adverb?

    Aber was weiss ich? Ich bin total doof.
    Oops I think you’re right. I don’t speak German but I know how to use the “in other languages” feature of Wikipedia.
  • Andy_JS said:

    What if Corbyn stands down in Islington North and Laura Pidcock gets the Labour nomination?

    I'd be surprised if you can get all that to happen in time.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311
    I find it fascinating that 3 of the strongest contenders all grew up within a very close proximity to each other. Long-Bailey in Stretford, Nandy in Didsbury and Bury and Rayner in Stockport, and they are all about the same age.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Look at this incredibly prophetic Janan Ganesh article in the FT, from May 2016, even before Brexit

    "By 2020, these will hover to the front of voters' minds and they will vote appropriately, dealing the Labour party a rout from which there is no promise of recovery."


    https://www.ft.com/content/67e4e6a8-0e01-11e6-b41f-0beb7e589515?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product
  • DYOR, but I reckon RBL is a lay on these numbers.

    The two presumed runners are favourite and second favourite in the betting. Things may change as others throw their hats into the ring. I'd also be slightly cautious in that Brexit will have happened before the contest.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    When betting on next Labour Leader don't forget the composition of the membership is majority Socialist Londoners and a majority of London members are muslims.

    It's an electorate that George Galloway would have had a serious chance with if he was still a Labour MP.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,599
    welshowl said:

    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    Byronic said:

    And there’s more. Given there is no possible route to a Labour govt of any kind even with SNP support that doesn’t go through West Bromwich, Stoke, Leigh, and Grimsby, how “ rejoiny” can Labour be next time?

    If the EU, “North London”, the Lib Dem’s and the clever dick lawyers running off to court every five minutes or coming up with Byzantine Parliamentary wheezes had really accepted the vote of June 2016, they’d be in a better place now vis a vis our membership both now and in the future.

    They didn’t, they spent three years carpet bombing people like me that we were thick, racist, stupid etc etc. Well we won. I hope we can be more gracious than they’ve been.

    We need as a nation to rest, heal, and above all a bit of normality for a few years.

    +++

    Yes, this is why I think there won't be any Scots indyref for a while, let alone a YES vote. The nation is weary. Sturgeon knows this, she just has to feed her radical Nats some separatist ribeye

    On your point, the Remainers totally fucked up all of this, from the start. Indeed you could easily argue they fucked this up from about Maastricht, when any kind of referendum, if offered, would have stopped EU integration for the UK, but kept us in the EU.

    Instead they overplayed their hand all the way along, and in the end they have lost everything. Total wretched arrogance. Hubris/nemesis. Twats.

    How “rejoiny” can Labour (or the LDs or anyone) be next time? Well, let’s see how reale existierender Brexitismus pans out over the next five years, shall we?

    And as to hubris, what you Brexiteers seem to forget in your moment of triumph is that almost as many people voted to remain in the EU as to leave it, and it always used to be sensible politics that if you had a knife-edge divisive issue, you needed to work hard to compromise and make it as palatable for the dissenting minority as possible.

    So be careful. If you want keep your hard-won Brexit, remember that the harder a Brexit you impose, the more likely it'll be you'll trigger a reaction that will put the UK (or more likely England) back in the EU and with Schengen and the Euro to boot.
    Is it not “real” with no adjectival “e”, because it’s an adverb?

    Aber was weiss ich? Ich bin total doof.
    Speaking with multiple languages in the same sentence. Hmm? You must be Boris Johnson!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961
    rpjs said:

    Byronic said:

    I've just realised that Labour are the Ottoman Empire in about 1870. And on an accelerated timetable of dismemberment.

    So who are the Young Turks and when do they turn up?
    They are stuck at the border, scuppered by Turkey's EU membership being put on hold.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996

    Byronic said:

    There will be no move to rejoin for two decades minimum. Lord Heseltine was finally right about something.

    This has been such a trauma, any party suggesting a revisit and a new referendum, will be punished, most severely, at the polls. This is simply the case, because it is human nature. The memories have to fade for a generation before we can even think about a reversal.

    If Remainers were sensible they would now be quietly machinating for UK entry into EEA/EFTA. That is much more do-able, and, crucially, would not need a 2nd ref.

    Heseltine and the smart Remainers have always known that Rejoin was dead as an option. As many of us have been saying for many a month. It is why they had to throw everything at preventing us leaving in the first place. Plotting with EU lawyers, secret trysts with the Speaker, taking over the Executive's powers, Benn Act, killing their own careers dead - they tried everything.

    They were as subtle though as a turd in a punchbowl. Their duplicity had been visible to all who voted to Leave. No doubt some Remainers were embarrassed at their antics too. Thursday was the judgment passed on their desperate measures.

    The irony is that the consequence of their efforts is a Europhile-free majority that allows Boris to do anything he wants with the EU,
    Within reason, and for five years. If that is sufficiently repugnant it will annoy many people, not just the 48%, and he will presumably not be relying on the continued support of Bolsover at a time when Britain is already out. But more fundamentally, as time rolls along people currently in their 30s - p'd off about Brexit will still be in the electorate, and people currently in their 60s + happy about Brexit much less so. Thus I think it is very foolish to rule out rejoining.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460



    @rpjs

    Fair enough. As it happens I do. And French. And I’ve lived in both. And my career has been export manufacturing. And yes both places are great, and I have a huge amount of affection for both countries. They are like us, good bits, bad bits, infuriating bits, charming bits.

    But I’m still a Brexiteer because I believe in solid friendship between good neighbours but still controlling our destiny in a democratic fashion. There is no European demos. So you can’t have a democracy.

    Sorry that’s my view. I don’t think it’s unreasonable, but I do regret being vilified for it by many for three and a half years.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,599

    I find it fascinating that 3 of the strongest contenders all grew up within a very close proximity to each other. Long-Bailey in Stretford, Nandy in Didsbury and Bury and Rayner in Stockport, and they are all about the same age.

    The witches of Prestwich?
  • Nandy and RLB on the cover of the I.

    I'm a PB Tory and I'm here to help
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    EPG said:

    Byronic said:

    There will be no move to rejoin for two decades minimum. Lord Heseltine was finally right about something.

    This has been such a trauma, any party suggesting a revisit and a new referendum, will be punished, most severely, at the polls. This is simply the case, because it is human nature. The memories have to fade for a generation before we can even think about a reversal.

    If Remainers were sensible they would now be quietly machinating for UK entry into EEA/EFTA. That is much more do-able, and, crucially, would not need a 2nd ref.

    Heseltine and the smart Remainers have always known that Rejoin was dead as an option. As many of us have been saying for many a month. It is why they had to throw everything at preventing us leaving in the first place. Plotting with EU lawyers, secret trysts with the Speaker, taking over the Executive's powers, Benn Act, killing their own careers dead - they tried everything.

    They were as subtle though as a turd in a punchbowl. Their duplicity had been visible to all who voted to Leave. No doubt some Remainers were embarrassed at their antics too. Thursday was the judgment passed on their desperate measures.

    The irony is that the consequence of their efforts is a Europhile-free majority that allows Boris to do anything he wants with the EU,
    Within reason, and for five years. If that is sufficiently repugnant it will annoy many people, not just the 48%, and he will presumably not be relying on the continued support of Bolsover at a time when Britain is already out. But more fundamentally, as time rolls along people currently in their 30s - p'd off about Brexit will still be in the electorate, and people currently in their 60s + happy about Brexit much less so. Thus I think it is very foolish to rule out rejoining.
    No one is ruling out rejoining. It is quite possible, for a start, that a reasonably successful Brexit will force the EU to become more flexible, so it can rehouse the Brits.

    It just won't happen for a decade, probably two, at the very least.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    Byronic said:

    And there’s more. Given there is no possible route to a Labour govt of any kind even with SNP support that doesn’t go through West Bromwich, Stoke, Leigh, and Grimsby, how “ rejoiny” can Labour be next time?

    If the EU, “North London”, the Lib Dem’s and the clever dick lawyers running off to court every five minutes or coming up with Byzantine Parliamentary wheezes had really accepted the vote of June 2016, they’d be in a better place now vis a vis our membership both now and in the future.

    They didn’t, they spent three years carpet bombing people like me that we were thick, racist, stupid etc etc. Well we won. I hope we can be more gracious than they’ve been.

    We need as a nation to rest, heal, and above all a bit of normality for a few years.

    +++

    Yes, this is why I think there won't be any Scots indyref for a while, let alone a YES vote. The nation is weary. Sturgeon knows this, she just has to feed her radical Nats some separatist ribeye

    On your point, the Remainers totally fucked up all of this, from the start. Indeed you could easily argue they fucked this up from about Maastricht, when any kind of referendum, if offered, would have stopped EU integration for the UK, but kept us in the EU.

    Instead they overplayed their hand all the way along, and in the end they have lost everything. Total wretched arrogance. Hubris/nemesis. Twats.

    How “rejoiny” can Labour (or the LDs or anyone) be next time? Well, let’s see how reale existierender Brexitismus pans out over the next five years, shall we?

    And as to hubris, what you Brexiteers seem to forget in your moment of triumph is that almost as many people voted to remain in the EU as to leave it, and it always used to be sensible politics that if you had a knife-edge divisive issue, you needed to work hard to compromise and make it as palatable for the dissenting minority as possible.

    So be careful. If you want keep your hard-won Brexit, remember that the harder a Brexit you impose, the more likely it'll be you'll trigger a reaction that will put the UK (or more likely England) back in the EU and with Schengen and the Euro to boot.
    Is it not “real” with no adjectival “e”, because it’s an adverb?

    Aber was weiss ich? Ich bin total doof.
    Speaking with multiple languages in the same sentence. Hmm? You must be Boris Johnson!
    I can’t speak Ancient Greek, so no, I’m not!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    edited December 2019
    welshowl said:




    @rpjs

    Fair enough. As it happens I do. And French. And I’ve lived in both. And my career has been export manufacturing. And yes both places are great, and I have a huge amount of affection for both countries. They are like us, good bits, bad bits, infuriating bits, charming bits.

    But I’m still a Brexiteer because I believe in solid friendship between good neighbours but still controlling our destiny in a democratic fashion. There is no European demos. So you can’t have a democracy.

    Sorry that’s my view. I don’t think it’s unreasonable, but I do regret being vilified for it by many for three and a half years.

    Does one stay pissed off when none of the horrific consequences one knowledgeably shared with the less well-informed over Twitter come to pass? Or does one just forget it ever happened.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,961

    I find it fascinating that 3 of the strongest contenders all grew up within a very close proximity to each other. Long-Bailey in Stretford, Nandy in Didsbury and Bury and Rayner in Stockport, and they are all about the same age.

    "When shall we three meet again?"
  • welshowl said:

    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    Byronic said:

    And there’s more. Given there is no possible route to a Labour govt of any kind even with SNP support that doesn’t go through West Bromwich, Stoke, Leigh, and Grimsby, how “ rejoiny” can Labour be next time?

    If the EU, “North London”, the Lib Dem’s and the clever dick lawyers running off to court every five minutes or coming up with Byzantine Parliamentary wheezes had really accepted the vote of June 2016, they’d be in a better place now vis a vis our membership both now and in the future.

    They didn’t, they spent three years carpet bombing people like me that we were thick, racist, stupid etc etc. Well we won. I hope we can be more gracious than they’ve been.

    We need as a nation to rest, heal, and above all a bit of normality for a few years.

    +++

    Yes, this is why I think there won't be any Scots indyref for a while, let alone a YES vote. The nation is weary. Sturgeon knows this, she just has to feed her radical Nats some separatist ribeye

    On your point, the Remainers totally fucked up all of this, from the start. Indeed you could easily argue they fucked this up from about Maastricht, when any kind of referendum, if offered, would have stopped EU integration for the UK, but kept us in the EU.

    Instead they overplayed their hand all the way along, and in the end they have lost everything. Total wretched arrogance. Hubris/nemesis. Twats.

    How “rejoiny” can Labour (or the LDs or anyone) be next time? Well, let’s see how reale existierender Brexitismus pans out over the next five years, shall we?

    And as to hubris, what you Brexiteers seem to forget in your moment of triumph is that almost as many people voted to remain in the EU as to leave it, and it always used to be sensible politics that if you had a knife-edge divisive issue, you needed to work hard to compromise and make it as palatable for the dissenting minority as possible.

    So be careful. If you want keep your hard-won Brexit, remember that the harder a Brexit you impose, the more likely it'll be you'll trigger a reaction that will put the UK (or more likely England) back in the EU and with Schengen and the Euro to boot.
    Is it not “real” with no adjectival “e”, because it’s an adverb?

    Aber was weiss ich? Ich bin total doof.
    Speaking with multiple languages in the same sentence. Hmm? You must be Boris Johnson!
    I must dans la Stadt gehen!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286

    Rebecca Wrong Daily would definitely be the "one more heave" candidate. So yes, expect her to win.

    If you can imagine a candidate using the phrase "evil Tories" they probably aren't a good choice. I can imagine RLB using it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,599
    edited December 2019
    EPG said:

    Byronic said:

    There will be no move to rejoin for two decades minimum. Lord Heseltine was finally right about something.

    This has been such a trauma, any party suggesting a revisit and a new referendum, will be punished, most severely, at the polls. This is simply the case, because it is human nature. The memories have to fade for a generation before we can even think about a reversal.

    If Remainers were sensible they would now be quietly machinating for UK entry into EEA/EFTA. That is much more do-able, and, crucially, would not need a 2nd ref.

    Heseltine and the smart Remainers have always known that Rejoin was dead as an option. As many of us have been saying for many a month. It is why they had to throw everything at preventing us leaving in the first place. Plotting with EU lawyers, secret trysts with the Speaker, taking over the Executive's powers, Benn Act, killing their own careers dead - they tried everything.

    They were as subtle though as a turd in a punchbowl. Their duplicity had been visible to all who voted to Leave. No doubt some Remainers were embarrassed at their antics too. Thursday was the judgment passed on their desperate measures.

    The irony is that the consequence of their efforts is a Europhile-free majority that allows Boris to do anything he wants with the EU,
    Within reason, and for five years. If that is sufficiently repugnant it will annoy many people, not just the 48%, and he will presumably not be relying on the continued support of Bolsover at a time when Britain is already out. But more fundamentally, as time rolls along people currently in their 30s - p'd off about Brexit will still be in the electorate, and people currently in their 60s + happy about Brexit much less so. Thus I think it is very foolish to rule out rejoining.
    Possibly, but not in my lifetime. I'm 57. Although a future government could align to within an inch of EU membership, without rejoining.
  • Seeing Labour prepare to make another disastrous mistake is heartwarming. Sounds like the Lib Dems have learned nothing either. Ed Davey was basically blaming Corbyn for the LDs failure because he wouldn't work with them.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:




    @rpjs

    Fair enough. As it happens I do. And French. And I’ve lived in both. And my career has been export manufacturing. And yes both places are great, and I have a huge amount of affection for both countries. They are like us, good bits, bad bits, infuriating bits, charming bits.

    But I’m still a Brexiteer because I believe in solid friendship between good neighbours but still controlling our destiny in a democratic fashion. There is no European demos. So you can’t have a democracy.

    Sorry that’s my view. I don’t think it’s unreasonable, but I do regret being vilified for it by many for three and a half years.

    Does one stay pissed off when none of the horrific consequences one knowledgeably shared with the less well-informed over Twitter come to pass? Or does one just forget it ever happened.
    Much lies in the answer to that I feel.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,599

    welshowl said:

    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    Byronic said:

    And there’s more. Given there is no possible route to a Labour govt of any kind even with SNP support that doesn’t go through West Bromwich, Stoke, Leigh, and Grimsby, how “ rejoiny” can Labour be next time?

    If the EU, “North London”, the Lib Dem’s and the clever dick lawyers running off to court every five minutes or coming up with Byzantine Parliamentary wheezes had really accepted the vote of June 2016, they’d be in a better place now vis a vis our membership both now and in the future.

    They didn’t, they spent three years carpet bombing people like me that we were thick, racist, stupid etc etc. Well we won. I hope we can be more gracious than they’ve been.

    We need as a nation to rest, heal, and above all a bit of normality for a few years.

    +++

    Yes, this is why I think there won't be any Scots indyref for a while, let alone a YES vote. The nation is weary. Sturgeon knows this, she just has to feed her radical Nats some separatist ribeye

    On your point, the Remainers totally fucked up all of this, from the start. Indeed you could easily argue they fucked this up from about Maastricht, when any kind of referendum, if offered, would have stopped EU integration for the UK, but kept us in the EU.

    Instead they overplayed their hand all the way along, and in the end they have lost everything. Total wretched arrogance. Hubris/nemesis. Twats.

    How “rejoiny” can Labour (or the LDs or anyone) be next time? Well, let’s see how reale existierender Brexitismus pans out over the next five years, shall we?

    And as to hubris, what you Brexiteers seem to forget in your moment of triumph is that almost as many people voted to remain in the EU as to leave it, and it always used to be sensible politics that if you had a knife-edge divisive issue, you needed to work hard to compromise and make it as palatable for the dissenting minority as possible.

    So be careful. If you want keep your hard-won Brexit, remember that the harder a Brexit you impose, the more likely it'll be you'll trigger a reaction that will put the UK (or more likely England) back in the EU and with Schengen and the Euro to boot.
    Is it not “real” with no adjectival “e”, because it’s an adverb?

    Aber was weiss ich? Ich bin total doof.
    Speaking with multiple languages in the same sentence. Hmm? You must be Boris Johnson!
    I must dans la Stadt gehen!
    So you must be Boris!
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    EPG said:

    Byronic said:

    There will be no move to rejoin for two decades minimum. Lord Heseltine was finally right about something.

    This has been such a trauma, any party suggesting a revisit and a new referendum, will be punished, most severely, at the polls. This is simply the case, because it is human nature. The memories have to fade for a generation before we can even think about a reversal.

    If Remainers were sensible they would now be quietly machinating for UK entry into EEA/EFTA. That is much more do-able, and, crucially, would not need a 2nd ref.

    Heseltine and the smart Remainers have always known that Rejoin was dead as an option. As many of us have been saying for many a month. It is why they had to throw everything at preventing us leaving in the first place. Plotting with EU lawyers, secret trysts with the Speaker, taking over the Executive's powers, Benn Act, killing their own careers dead - they tried everything.

    They were as subtle though as a turd in a punchbowl. Their duplicity had been visible to all who voted to Leave. No doubt some Remainers were embarrassed at their antics too. Thursday was the judgment passed on their desperate measures.

    The irony is that the consequence of their efforts is a Europhile-free majority that allows Boris to do anything he wants with the EU,
    Within reason, and for five years. If that is sufficiently repugnant it will annoy many people, not just the 48%, and he will presumably not be relying on the continued support of Bolsover at a time when Britain is already out. But more fundamentally, as time rolls along people currently in their 30s - p'd off about Brexit will still be in the electorate, and people currently in their 60s + happy about Brexit much less so. Thus I think it is very foolish to rule out rejoining.
    I don't think that many people will have an appetite to repeat these past 3 years.

    The biggest obstacle for Labour over decades has been the memories of the 1970's, Labour doesn't need to saddle itself with the threat that they will repeat the 2010's if they come to power.

    The Europe issue is has just been a very bad experience for the electorate, I don't think they want to re-open the wounds with Rejoin.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,013
    speedy2 said:

    When betting on next Labour Leader don't forget the composition of the membership is majority Socialist Londoners and a majority of London members are muslims.

    It's an electorate that George Galloway would have had a serious chance with if he was still a Labour MP.

    Again, you claim that more than one in four Labour members are muslim. And again I call bollocks.

    It ain't my party, but let's try and keep some accuracy around.

    If you have detailed membership breakdown figures, then let's see them.

    If not, then why persist in this odd claim? It could lead to some rather unsavoury speculation about the reasons.
  • rpjs said:

    welshowl said:

    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    Byronic said:

    And there’s more. Given there is no possible route to a Labour govt of any kind even with SNP support that doesn’t go through West Bromwich, Stoke, Leigh, and Grimsby, how “ rejoiny” can Labour be next time?

    If the EU, “North London”, the Lib Dem’s and the clever dick lawyers running off to court every five minutes or coming up with Byzantine Parliamentary wheezes had really accepted the vote of June 2016, they’d be in a better place now vis a vis our membership both now and in the future.

    They didn’t, they spent three years carpet bombing people like me that we were thick, racist, stupid etc etc. Well we won. I hope we can be more gracious than they’ve been.

    We need as a nation to rest, heal, and above all a bit of normality for a few years.

    +++

    Yes, this is why I think there won't be any Scots indyref for a while, let alone a YES vote. The nation is weary. Sturgeon knows this, she just has to feed her radical Nats some separatist ribeye

    On your point, the Remainers totally fucked up all of this, from the start. Indeed you could easily argue they fucked this up from about Maastricht, when any kind of referendum, if offered, would have stopped EU integration for the UK, but kept us in the EU.

    Instead they overplayed their hand all the way along, and in the end they have lost everything. Total wretched arrogance. Hubris/nemesis. Twats.

    How “rejoiny” can Labour (or the LDs or anyone) be next time? Well, let’s see how reale existierender Brexitismus pans out over the next five years, shall we?

    And as to hubris, what you Brexiteers seem to forget in your moment of triumph is that almost as many people voted to remain in the EU as to leave it, and it always used to be sensible politics that if you had a knife-edge divisive issue, you needed to work hard to compromise and make it as palatable for the dissenting minority as possible.

    So be careful. If you want keep your hard-won Brexit, remember that the harder a Brexit you impose, the more likely it'll be you'll trigger a reaction that will put the UK (or more likely England) back in the EU and with Schengen and the Euro to boot.
    Is it not “real” with no adjectival “e”, because it’s an adverb?

    Aber was weiss ich? Ich bin total doof.
    Oops I think you’re right. I don’t speak German but I know how to use the “in other languages” feature of Wikipedia.
    [swaggering] Man, I've got GSCE A-grades in French AND German :)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    O/T

    "The 'Distracted Boyfriend' Meme's Photographer Explains All
    Antonio Guillem didn't mean to go viral. In fact, he only just found out what a meme is."

    https://www.wired.com/story/distracted-boyfriend-meme-photographer-interview/
  • RobCRobC Posts: 398
    For my money Angela Rayner is the one to watch. Despite leaving school at 16 she is inherently quicker on her feet and feistier than Long-Bailey, more acceptable to Momentum voters than the slightly dull, soft left Nandy and not as egotistical as motormouth Jess Phillips. Starmer and Cooper are non-starters.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    speedy2 said:

    EPG said:

    Byronic said:

    There will be no move to rejoin for two decades minimum. Lord Heseltine was finally right about something.

    This has been such a trauma, any party suggesting a revisit and a new referendum, will be punished, most severely, at the polls. This is simply the case, because it is human nature. The memories have to fade for a generation before we can even think about a reversal.

    If Remainers were sensible they would now be quietly machinating for UK entry into EEA/EFTA. That is much more do-able, and, crucially, would not need a 2nd ref.

    Heseltine and the smart Remainers have always known that Rejoin was dead as an option. As many of us have been saying for many a month. It is why they had to throw everything at preventing us leaving in the first place. Plotting with EU lawyers, secret trysts with the Speaker, taking over the Executive's powers, Benn Act, killing their own careers dead - they tried everything.

    They were as subtle though as a turd in a punchbowl. Their duplicity had been visible to all who voted to Leave. No doubt some Remainers were embarrassed at their antics too. Thursday was the judgment passed on their desperate measures.

    The irony is that the consequence of their efforts is a Europhile-free majority that allows Boris to do anything he wants with the EU,
    Within reason, and for five years. If that is sufficiently repugnant it will annoy many people, not just the 48%, and he will presumably not be relying on the continued support of Bolsover at a time when Britain is already out. But more fundamentally, as time rolls along people currently in their 30s - p'd off about Brexit will still be in the electorate, and people currently in their 60s + happy about Brexit much less so. Thus I think it is very foolish to rule out rejoining.
    I don't think that many people will have an appetite to repeat these past 3 years.

    The biggest obstacle for Labour over decades has been the memories of the 1970's, Labour doesn't need to saddle itself with the threat that they will repeat the 2010's if they come to power.

    The Europe issue is has just been a very bad experience for the electorate, I don't think they want to re-open the wounds with Rejoin.
    I don't know the evidence for that argument. Naively, millions of people seem to have changed their vote preference based on the Europe issue, so it doesn't seem that they were alienated by the debate. Instead, it seems to have been very important to voters to do / not do Brexit.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Byronic said:

    Look at this incredibly prophetic Janan Ganesh article in the FT, from May 2016, even before Brexit

    "By 2020, these will hover to the front of voters' minds and they will vote appropriately, dealing the Labour party a rout from which there is no promise of recovery."


    https://www.ft.com/content/67e4e6a8-0e01-11e6-b41f-0beb7e589515?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product

    It's not like they weren't given warning after warning.

    In topic: I just laugh at the Tories being "afraid" of Jess Phillips. She would actually end the Labour party if she were to become leader. A more self righteous twat I cannot think of.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    RobC said:

    For my money Angela Rayner is the one to watch. Despite leaving school at 16 she is inherently quicker on her feet and feistier than Long-Bailey, more acceptable to Momentum voters than the slightly dull, soft left Nandy and not as egotistical as motormouth Jess Phillips. Starmer and Cooper are non-starters.

    Starmer is Kingmaker, surely. They won't elect another male Leader.

    If he throws himself as deputy behind Rayner or Nandy, then I think that is a winning team.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    HYUFD said:

    I wonder which one the Tories fear the most. Will the pb Tories tell us?

    My guess is Lisa Nandy.

    Cooper is too tired and is tainted with Remain Chicanery, and Phillips is too divisive, empty-headed and opinionated.

    Angela Rayner is good, but I think Lisa Nandy could be better.

    (At the last Welsh Labour leadership elections, the potential leader and the potential deputy that the opposition parties feared the most both trailed in last).

    Jess Phillips followed by Starmer, Nandy is not that bright and has no personality and despite supposedly being willing to accept Brexit consistently voted against the May and Boris Deal. Though Dawn Butler might be good but seems to me too London centric and tainted with Corbynism
    Nandy is bright enough and charismatic enough. I think she comes across better (and is therefore more electable) than RLB. I think Butler would be great, though you have to ask why, compared to most of the other runners, you hardly ever see her on TV. Of course the obvious person to be the next leader is Charmer Starmer. But will he stand?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited December 2019
    Cooper has been invisible outside of a few moments of parliamentary wrangling which have now proven self defeating. Starmer managed the party approach to Brexit effectively but it is blamed for their loss so that does him no good. Nandy has the spine of a sponge, constantly talking about maybe backing deals then not doing so, not a positive sign of leadership. RLB has not put me off like she has some on here, but is tied close to the current leaders so it depends if after a little reflection the members want more of the same. Thornberry has gravitas compared to others but seems disliked or distrusted by both sides. I dont personally see the appeal of Phillips. She swears sometimes?

    So I guess its Rayner.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    nunu2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Look at this incredibly prophetic Janan Ganesh article in the FT, from May 2016, even before Brexit

    "By 2020, these will hover to the front of voters' minds and they will vote appropriately, dealing the Labour party a rout from which there is no promise of recovery."


    https://www.ft.com/content/67e4e6a8-0e01-11e6-b41f-0beb7e589515?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product

    It's not like they weren't given warning after warning.

    In topic: I just laugh at the Tories being "afraid" of Jess Phillips. She would actually end the Labour party if she were to become leader. A more self righteous twat I cannot think of.
    This is nonsense, of course. Phillips is highly electable. The problem (as perhaps it also is with Nandy) is that she's not a Corbynite, and most of the membership is Corbynite.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    rpjs said:

    welshowl said:

    rpjs said:

    FPT:

    Byronic said:

    And there’s more. Given there is no possible route to a Labour govt of any kind even with SNP support that doesn’t go through West Bromwich, Stoke, Leigh, and Grimsby, how “ rejoiny” can Labour be next time?

    If the EU, “North London”, the Lib Dem’s and the clever dick lawyers running off to court every five minutes or coming up with Byzantine Parliamentary wheezes had really accepted the vote of June 2016, they’d be in a better place now vis a vis our membership both now and in the future.

    They didn’t, they spent three years carpet bombing people like me that we were thick, racist, stupid etc etc. Well we won. I hope we can be more gracious than they’ve been.

    We need as a nation to rest, heal, and above all a bit of normality for a few years.

    +++

    Yes, this is why I think there won't be any Scots indyref for a while, let alone a YES vote. The nation is weary. Sturgeon knows this, she just has to feed her radical Nats some separatist ribeye

    On your point, the Remainers totally fucked up all of this, from the start. Indeed you could easily argue they fucked this up from about Maastricht, when any kind of referendum, if offered, would have stopped EU integration for the UK, but kept us in the EU.

    Instead they overplayed their hand all the way along, and in the end they have lost everything. Total wretched arrogance. Hubris/nemesis. Twats.

    How “rejoiny” can Labour (or the LDs or anyone) be next time? Well, let’s see how reale existierender Brexitismus pans out over the next five years, shall we?

    And as to hubris, what you Brexiteers seem to forget in your moment of triumph is that almost as many people voted to remain in the EU as to leave it, and it always used to be sensible politics that if you had a knife-edge divisive issue, you needed to work hard to compromise and make it as palatable for the dissenting minority as possible.

    So be careful. If you want keep your hard-won Brexit, remember that the harder a Brexit you impose, the more likely it'll be you'll trigger a reaction that will put the UK (or more likely England) back in the EU and with Schengen and the Euro to boot.
    Is it not “real” with no adjectival “e”, because it’s an adverb?

    Aber was weiss ich? Ich bin total doof.
    Oops I think you’re right. I don’t speak German but I know how to use the “in other languages” feature of Wikipedia.
    [swaggering] Man, I've got GSCE A-grades in French AND German :)
    No need to show off, Doctor :)
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,557
    edited December 2019



    Starmer is Kingmaker, surely. They won't elect another male Leader.

    I think ruling out male leaders should lead to another EHRC investigation. Maybe Labour want to distract attention from the anti-semitism one?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Dadge said:

    nunu2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Look at this incredibly prophetic Janan Ganesh article in the FT, from May 2016, even before Brexit

    "By 2020, these will hover to the front of voters' minds and they will vote appropriately, dealing the Labour party a rout from which there is no promise of recovery."


    https://www.ft.com/content/67e4e6a8-0e01-11e6-b41f-0beb7e589515?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product

    It's not like they weren't given warning after warning.

    In topic: I just laugh at the Tories being "afraid" of Jess Phillips. She would actually end the Labour party if she were to become leader. A more self righteous twat I cannot think of.
    This is nonsense, of course. Phillips is highly electable. The problem (as perhaps it also is with Nandy) is that she's not a Corbynite, and most of the membership is Corbynite.
    I think the point nunu2 is making is that with Jess' powers of tact, forbearance and understatement, she is likely to blow the Labour Party up before it gets to the stage of any voters passing judgment.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited December 2019
    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder which one the Tories fear the most. Will the pb Tories tell us?

    My guess is Lisa Nandy.

    Cooper is too tired and is tainted with Remain Chicanery, and Phillips is too divisive, empty-headed and opinionated.

    Angela Rayner is good, but I think Lisa Nandy could be better.

    (At the last Welsh Labour leadership elections, the potential leader and the potential deputy that the opposition parties feared the most both trailed in last).

    Jess Phillips followed by Starmer, Nandy is not that bright and has no personality and despite supposedly being willing to accept Brexit consistently voted against the May and Boris Deal. Though Dawn Butler might be good but seems to me too London centric and tainted with Corbynism
    Nandy is bright enough and charismatic enough. I think she comes across better (and is therefore more electable) than RLB. I think Butler would be great, though you have to ask why, compared to most of the other runners, you hardly ever see her on TV. Of course the obvious person to be the next leader is Charmer Starmer. But will he stand?
    Starmer is the only one I could possibly actually see as PM, maybe Thornberry too but she has been brutally wounded by Flint.

    However I don't think any of them could beat Boris, in fact given the current weak Labour field to succeed Corbyn and the fact Umunna and Berger failed to win their seats leaving a weak LD field to succeed Swinson too it looks like the Leader of the Opposition for the next 5 years in reality could well be Nicola Sturgeon
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Dadge said:

    nunu2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Look at this incredibly prophetic Janan Ganesh article in the FT, from May 2016, even before Brexit

    "By 2020, these will hover to the front of voters' minds and they will vote appropriately, dealing the Labour party a rout from which there is no promise of recovery."


    https://www.ft.com/content/67e4e6a8-0e01-11e6-b41f-0beb7e589515?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product

    It's not like they weren't given warning after warning.

    In topic: I just laugh at the Tories being "afraid" of Jess Phillips. She would actually end the Labour party if she were to become leader. A more self righteous twat I cannot think of.
    This is nonsense, of course. Phillips is highly electable. The problem (as perhaps it also is with Nandy) is that she's not a Corbynite, and most of the membership is Corbynite.
    She's highly electable in the punditry bubble.
    Not in the real world.
  • As a Tory, I'd fear Starmer rather more than Nandy. If he's out of the running it's good news for us.

    The candidates I'd really fear are those closest to Blair who have built up good connections where it matters - e.g. outside the Momentum bubble. Cooper, Kendall. McDonagh etc. But nobody like that is going to stand, and if they did, they'd lose badly in the leadership election, so we have nothing to worry about on that front.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    Mango said:

    speedy2 said:

    When betting on next Labour Leader don't forget the composition of the membership is majority Socialist Londoners and a majority of London members are muslims.

    It's an electorate that George Galloway would have had a serious chance with if he was still a Labour MP.

    Again, you claim that more than one in four Labour members are muslim. And again I call bollocks.

    It ain't my party, but let's try and keep some accuracy around.

    If you have detailed membership breakdown figures, then let's see them.

    If not, then why persist in this odd claim? It could lead to some rather unsavoury speculation about the reasons.
    Demographically you can plot the Labour seats along the 2011 census and you can see that the ethnic minority vote plays a very strong infuence , also the election results and opinion polls also prove outsized influence among ethnic minorities inside Labour but they are not a majority outside of London, but should be a majority inside London.

    A majority of Labour voters definetly live in the south of england now and the selectorate should reflect that with an added edge to it's most politisised elements and areas namingly London and Student areas.

    That's how Corbyn won in 2015 and 2016 the same way George Galloway won By-elections, he got Socialists, Students, and Ethnic Minorities.
  • HYUFD said:

    I wonder which one the Tories fear the most. Will the pb Tories tell us?

    My guess is Lisa Nandy.

    Cooper is too tired and is tainted with Remain Chicanery, and Phillips is too divisive, empty-headed and opinionated.

    Angela Rayner is good, but I think Lisa Nandy could be better.

    (At the last Welsh Labour leadership elections, the potential leader and the potential deputy that the opposition parties feared the most both trailed in last).

    Jess Phillips followed by Starmer, Nandy is not that bright and has no personality and despite supposedly being willing to accept Brexit consistently voted against the May and Boris Deal. Though Dawn Butler might be good but seems to me too London centric and tainted with Corbynism
    Nandy isnt bright but Phillips is?!
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    EPG said:



    I don't know the evidence for that argument. Naively, millions of people seem to have changed their vote preference based on the Europe issue, so it doesn't seem that they were alienated by the debate. Instead, it seems to have been very important to voters to do / not do Brexit.

    Labour even after losing more than a third of them they still hold 100 Leave seats, a lot of those holds probably due to the Brexit Party splitting the Conservative vote a bit.

    In the next election Farage might not field a party.
    Can Labour still hold them if they become the party of Rejoin ?
  • novanova Posts: 525
    Dadge said:

    nunu2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Look at this incredibly prophetic Janan Ganesh article in the FT, from May 2016, even before Brexit

    "By 2020, these will hover to the front of voters' minds and they will vote appropriately, dealing the Labour party a rout from which there is no promise of recovery."


    https://www.ft.com/content/67e4e6a8-0e01-11e6-b41f-0beb7e589515?ftcamp=published_links/rss/comment/feed//product

    It's not like they weren't given warning after warning.

    In topic: I just laugh at the Tories being "afraid" of Jess Phillips. She would actually end the Labour party if she were to become leader. A more self righteous twat I cannot think of.
    This is nonsense, of course. Phillips is highly electable. The problem (as perhaps it also is with Nandy) is that she's not a Corbynite, and most of the membership is Corbynite.
    I'm not so sure. His reputation has taken a big hit over the past year among members. This survey is from July, and almost half wanted him to stand down before the next election.

    Starmer was considered the best potential leader - and he's clearly not a Corbynite.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/07/22/corbyns-reputation-takes-big-hit-labour-members-mo
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    HYUFD said:

    Dadge said:

    HYUFD said:

    I wonder which one the Tories fear the most. Will the pb Tories tell us?

    My guess is Lisa Nandy.

    Cooper is too tired and is tainted with Remain Chicanery, and Phillips is too divisive, empty-headed and opinionated.

    Angela Rayner is good, but I think Lisa Nandy could be better.

    (At the last Welsh Labour leadership elections, the potential leader and the potential deputy that the opposition parties feared the most both trailed in last).

    Jess Phillips followed by Starmer, Nandy is not that bright and has no personality and despite supposedly being willing to accept Brexit consistently voted against the May and Boris Deal. Though Dawn Butler might be good but seems to me too London centric and tainted with Corbynism
    Nandy is bright enough and charismatic enough. I think she comes across better (and is therefore more electable) than RLB. I think Butler would be great, though you have to ask why, compared to most of the other runners, you hardly ever see her on TV. Of course the obvious person to be the next leader is Charmer Starmer. But will he stand?
    Starmer is the only one I could possibly actually see as PM, maybe Thornberry too but she has been brutally wounded by Flint.

    However I don't think any of them could beat Boris, in fact given the current weak Labour field to succeed Corbyn and the fact Umunna and Berger failed to win their seats leaving a weak LD field to succeed Swinson too it looks like the Leader of the Opposition for the next 5 years in reality could well be Nicola Sturgeon
    Almost anyone can beat Boris *depending on the circumstances*. If Brexit goes badly; if he offends sections of voters; if the media turns on him on any issues (eg. NHS, Russia, migration, housing); if there are economic difficulties...

    As is normal with a majority govt, most of the struggle in the next 5 years will be within the Tory party; it'll be fascinating to see how this pans out. But there is of course a role for a LOTO in channeling national sentiment in regard to that struggle. Corbyn did that part of his job very badly. Maybe/hopefully the new leader will be better at it.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    I haven't bet much this year (I'm necessarily more risk-averse these days) but I have won all the bets I've placed - including a couple that've been outstanding for many months about the possibility of an EU ref this year(!) - so my usual thanks to PBers and others who continue to be so helpful.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    Nandy and RLB on the cover of the I.

    I'm a PB Tory and I'm here to help

    I’m not a member of any political party and have never done any canvassing. Nor have I told @ydoethur how I voted last Thursday. I did put my dilemmas in a post btl and got lots of suggestions.

    I write about what I am interested in and what I hope others will find interesting.

    I am not remotely holy - far too much of a sinner. I’d need banks of wardrobes for all the skeletons in my cupboard.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074

    On topic if Labour are simply going to rush in to replace Corbyn with another Corbynista - a particularly charmless and not very bright one at that - they may as well not bother. There is an utter paucity of talent.

    Frankly, anyone in the Shadow Cabinet should be ruled out since they were collectively responsible for:-
    (a) the manifesto;
    (b) putting Corbyn forward as a candidate for PM;
    (c) not doing anything about the anti-semitism issue.

    That leaves Nandy, Phillips, Creasey (but only just a mother so most unlikely) or Hilary Benn, who might do the Kinnock role if that is what Labour wanted which, sadly, they don’t.
    The only senior person untainted by Corbynism is Sadiq Khan but he is not an MP and so-so.

    They’re a bit stuffed, frankly. I don’t in any case really see why a party which has turned into a mixture of the SWP and Respect should survive.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Oops


  • Should a member if the HoL hold dual nationality?

    https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1206158521169055744
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    Yougov shows what Labour's next leader should avoid doing:


    If you add Brexit related indecisiveness you get 57%.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Blimey all the money is for Nandy. She seems pleasant, but looks too much like she should be knocking about with Lisa Simpson & is about to cry all the time
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265
    Mango said:

    speedy2 said:

    When betting on next Labour Leader don't forget the composition of the membership is majority Socialist Londoners and a majority of London members are muslims.

    It's an electorate that George Galloway would have had a serious chance with if he was still a Labour MP.

    Again, you claim that more than one in four Labour members are muslim. And again I call bollocks.

    It ain't my party, but let's try and keep some accuracy around.

    If you have detailed membership breakdown figures, then let's see them.

    If not, then why persist in this odd claim? It could lead to some rather unsavoury speculation about the reasons.
    Speedy is simply wildly ill-informed on both counts.
  • ReggieCideReggieCide Posts: 4,312
    RLB = leader = Tories wet dream
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,599

    Should a member if the HoL hold dual nationality?

    https://twitter.com/andrew_adonis/status/1206158521169055744

    Bye, bye!
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,572
    edited December 2019
    Cyclefree said:


    On topic if Labour are simply going to rush in to replace Corbyn with another Corbynista - a particularly charmless and not very bright one at that - they may as well not bother. There is an utter paucity of talent.

    Frankly, anyone in the Shadow Cabinet should be ruled out since they were collectively responsible for:-
    (a) the manifesto;
    (b) putting Corbyn forward as a candidate for PM;
    (c) not doing anything about the anti-semitism issue.

    That leaves Nandy, Phillips, Creasey (but only just a mother so most unlikely) or Hilary Benn, who might do the Kinnock role if that is what Labour wanted which, sadly, they don’t.
    The only senior person untainted by Corbynism is Sadiq Khan but he is not an MP and so-so.

    They’re a bit stuffed, frankly. I don’t in any case really see why a party which has turned into a mixture of the SWP and Respect should survive.

    There is no point in considering the Labour leadership successor in terms of which candidate would be best for putting the party back on a road to recovery. That assumes that the party has a capacity for rational action when it has time and again taken a course that left the Conservatives rubbing their hands with glee.

    So RLB it is then.
This discussion has been closed.