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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A LAB leadership election without Starmer on the ballot would

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited December 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A LAB leadership election without Starmer on the ballot would appear very odd

From our Times Labour party members poll in July. Proportion who think x would hake a good leader of the Labour party:Keir Starmer – 68%John McDonnell – 64% Emily Thornberry – 59%Angela Rayner – 41%Tom Watson – 37% ?RLB – 34%Jess Phillips – 33% Laura Pidcock – 31% ?

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Comments

  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    first unlike Starmer
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    edited December 2019
    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,399
    edited December 2019
    Starmer looks credible, but he owns Labours Brexit strategy and that is the official narrative of why they lost since Saint Jeremy won all the other arguments apparently. So surely that counts against him?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    While I agree with this, I really don't think the faction in control of the NEC right now are bothered about the external credibility of the party leader. The rule changes they passed were primarily to ensure they couldn't be kept off the ballot paper, but if they can keeps others off the same way I doubt they'll care how it looks. They remain inward-looking, not outward.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,399

    HYUFD said:
    Don't worry HY - I'm a Political Education Officer, so I won't be turning them all into Marxists.
    So you're the one for the punishment beatings? ;)
    Education sessions, please.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    edited December 2019
    As ever, David H made a very cogent and interesting point, or series of them, in his post in November. I think the only thing Starmer could do to improve his chances would be to have a sex change. He hasn't been terrible as a shadow BrexSec, but he certainly hasn't achieved anything of note.

    OGH describes Corbyn's election campaign as "disastrous". I'm not sure that the campaign itself was - Labour ended roughly where it began. It was certainly no triumph, but as many posters have argued, when you can't really take a position on the key issue of the day, and when a key section of the electorate loathes you, the campaign needs to be amazing to stave off a dismal result. It was Corbyn's leadership this year that has been disastrous, rather than the campaign he ran.
  • One possible strategy for Labour would be the IDS gambit: elect a complete dunce now then replace them with someone brighter in 2023.
  • One possible strategy for Labour would be the IDS gambit: elect a complete dunce now then replace them with someone brighter in 2023.

    They have been doing the first plan of the IDS gambit since Blair left, just failing to get to the second step.
  • Almost 59% think Thornberry would be a good leader?

    They’re doomed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,280

    Almost 59% think Thornberry would be a good leader?

    They’re doomed.

    That is quite shocking.
  • One possible strategy for Labour would be the IDS gambit: elect a complete dunce now then replace them with someone brighter in 2023.

    Didn’t do the Tories much good in 2005. Well, aside from the fact that two more years of IDS might have seen them actually sliding backwards (from 1997!), whereas Howard steadied the ship somewhat.
  • HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    Starmer would seem very unlikely to reverse Labours fortunes in the north. He could make some impact on remania but that depends on Johnson not pivoting to bigger spending and taking that ground from them.

    Not sure how much his popularity with members is simply a by product of them not wanting Brexit to happen. Once it does happen does his popularity shrink?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    edited December 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    No charisma, no obvious ideology and baggage from his time as DPP though. He may excite metropolitan Guardianistas (I said may) and the BAMEs will mostly stay loyal, but I don't see him as the man to reconnect with the white upper-lower classes.

    And as for retaking the Scottish seats that Labour needs ...
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    kle4 said:

    Starmer looks credible, but he owns Labours Brexit strategy and that is the official narrative of why they lost since Saint Jeremy won all the other arguments apparently. So surely that counts against him?

    Surely that's the entire point of this narrative - it pins the blame on the person who they least wish to be leader.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    One possible strategy for Labour would be the IDS gambit: elect a complete dunce now then replace them with someone brighter in 2023.

    Didn’t do the Tories much good in 2005. Well, aside from the fact that two more years of IDS might have seen them actually sliding backwards (from 1997!), whereas Howard steadied the ship somewhat.
    Ideologically Howard was close to IDS and polled about the same
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046
    edited December 2019
    More and more, I think Labour’s trump card could have been renegotiating re-entry, as opposed to renegotiating exit. Or the Lib Dems. Seeing what Juncker would give (over and above Cameron's crap negotiation), in return for an EUref with Lab support for the 'new deal'. Could have split the Tories badly. Good thing they didn't think of it.
  • HYUFD said:

    One possible strategy for Labour would be the IDS gambit: elect a complete dunce now then replace them with someone brighter in 2023.

    Didn’t do the Tories much good in 2005. Well, aside from the fact that two more years of IDS might have seen them actually sliding backwards (from 1997!), whereas Howard steadied the ship somewhat.
    Ideologically Howard was close to IDS and polled about the same
    Yes, the idea that Howard lifted Conservative fortunes is popular and comforting but there is not really much evidence for it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,399
    Charlie Falconer backing the "anyone but RLB" candidate.
  • One possible strategy for Labour would be the IDS gambit: elect a complete dunce now then replace them with someone brighter in 2023.

    Well they've certainly got a strong field for the first part of that strategy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    No charisma, no obvious ideology and baggage from his time as DPP though. He may excite metropolitan Guardianistas (I said may) and the BAMEs will mostly stay loyal, but I don't see him as the man to reconnect with the white upper-lower classes.

    And as for retaking the Scottish seats that Labour needs ...
    The white skilled working class vote is probably lost to Labour for good, they polled better last Thursday with ABs than C2s and that vote coupled with C1s and DEs is the winning coalition Labour needs
  • Charlie Falconer backing the "anyone but RLB" candidate.

    Is he going to resign?
  • HYUFD said:

    One possible strategy for Labour would be the IDS gambit: elect a complete dunce now then replace them with someone brighter in 2023.

    Didn’t do the Tories much good in 2005. Well, aside from the fact that two more years of IDS might have seen them actually sliding backwards (from 1997!), whereas Howard steadied the ship somewhat.
    Ideologically Howard was close to IDS and polled about the same
    Yes, the idea that Howard lifted Conservative fortunes is popular and comforting but there is not really much evidence for it.
    A lot of it is conjecture. However, there was a lot of talk of the Tories facing an existential crisis around the time of IDS’s nadir. That did all go away when Howard came on board (even though people posited that he wouldn’t win). A lot of the infighting went away.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Almost 59% think Thornberry would be a good leader?

    They’re doomed.

    That's one way of getting 50 more Northern seats to turn blue at the next election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    Starmer would seem very unlikely to reverse Labours fortunes in the north. He could make some impact on remania but that depends on Johnson not pivoting to bigger spending and taking that ground from them.

    Not sure how much his popularity with members is simply a by product of them not wanting Brexit to happen. Once it does happen does his popularity shrink?
    Starmer would be the candidate most feared by the Tories - he's the closest to a Blair that Labour has right now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    In fairness to the Corbynites, there is no way Labour would be within 1239 votes of losing Hull East if they were not seen as blockers of Brexit & the payoff was gaining a single seat in London.

    They'd have sacrificed ground in London but retilting the lost votes away from the northern heartlands would have lead to a better result.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    No charisma, no obvious ideology and baggage from his time as DPP though. He may excite metropolitan Guardianistas (I said may) and the BAMEs will mostly stay loyal, but I don't see him as the man to reconnect with the white upper-lower classes.

    And as for retaking the Scottish seats that Labour needs ...
    The white skilled working class vote is probably lost to Labour for good, they polled better last Thursday with ABs than C2s and that vote coupled with C1s and DEs is the winning coalition Labour needs
    If they've lost the Scots and the WWCs then they are going to be a near-permanent opposition. They will do well with public sector ABs, but I don't see them making further inroads into private sector ABs, as they too obviously regard them as cash cows.

    I think that the English WWC will be the key swing demographic going ahead in the UK. But of course it's just a guess - you could be right.
  • Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    Starmer would seem very unlikely to reverse Labours fortunes in the north. He could make some impact on remania but that depends on Johnson not pivoting to bigger spending and taking that ground from them.

    Not sure how much his popularity with members is simply a by product of them not wanting Brexit to happen. Once it does happen does his popularity shrink?
    Starmer would be the candidate most feared by the Tories - he's the closest to a Blair that Labour has right now.
    For all the current Blair hate, he was an exceptional politician. Starmer is just a reasonable and intelligent lawyer, he has done nothing to deserve comparisons with Blair. Blair didnt win landslides by just being reasonable and not loony left.
  • HYUFD said:

    One possible strategy for Labour would be the IDS gambit: elect a complete dunce now then replace them with someone brighter in 2023.

    Didn’t do the Tories much good in 2005. Well, aside from the fact that two more years of IDS might have seen them actually sliding backwards (from 1997!), whereas Howard steadied the ship somewhat.
    Ideologically Howard was close to IDS and polled about the same
    Yes, the idea that Howard lifted Conservative fortunes is popular and comforting but there is not really much evidence for it.
    I always thought it was argued that he stopped the rot.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    To go further, the mere fact that a second ref was somehow seen as the "centre ground" on Brexit was quite frankly insulting to the vast majority that voted to leave I reckon.
    It was a window moved by parliament and the Labour party membership, not shared by the country at large.
  • Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    No charisma, no obvious ideology and baggage from his time as DPP though. He may excite metropolitan Guardianistas (I said may) and the BAMEs will mostly stay loyal, but I don't see him as the man to reconnect with the white upper-lower classes.

    And as for retaking the Scottish seats that Labour needs ...
    The white skilled working class vote is probably lost to Labour for good, they polled better last Thursday with ABs than C2s and that vote coupled with C1s and DEs is the winning coalition Labour needs
    If they've lost the Scots and the WWCs then they are going to be a near-permanent opposition. They will do well with public sector ABs, but I don't see them making further inroads into private sector ABs, as they too obviously regard them as cash cows.

    I think that the English WWC will be the key swing demographic going ahead in the UK. But of course it's just a guess - you could be right.
    The electorate has broken primarily by age not class. The key thing Labour need to do is get much more than 15% of over 65s, it needs to be mid twenties at least.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,399

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    No charisma, no obvious ideology and baggage from his time as DPP though. He may excite metropolitan Guardianistas (I said may) and the BAMEs will mostly stay loyal, but I don't see him as the man to reconnect with the white upper-lower classes.

    And as for retaking the Scottish seats that Labour needs ...
    The white skilled working class vote is probably lost to Labour for good, they polled better last Thursday with ABs than C2s and that vote coupled with C1s and DEs is the winning coalition Labour needs
    If they've lost the Scots and the WWCs then they are going to be a near-permanent opposition. They will do well with public sector ABs, but I don't see them making further inroads into private sector ABs, as they too obviously regard them as cash cows.

    I think that the English WWC will be the key swing demographic going ahead in the UK. But of course it's just a guess - you could be right.
    The electorate has broken primarily by age not class. The key thing Labour need to do is get much more than 15% of over 65s, it needs to be mid twenties at least.
    Well they go for triple lock etc and the WASPI bribe for future support.
  • HYUFD said:

    One possible strategy for Labour would be the IDS gambit: elect a complete dunce now then replace them with someone brighter in 2023.

    Didn’t do the Tories much good in 2005. Well, aside from the fact that two more years of IDS might have seen them actually sliding backwards (from 1997!), whereas Howard steadied the ship somewhat.
    Ideologically Howard was close to IDS and polled about the same
    Yes, the idea that Howard lifted Conservative fortunes is popular and comforting but there is not really much evidence for it.
    A lot of it is conjecture. However, there was a lot of talk of the Tories facing an existential crisis around the time of IDS’s nadir. That did all go away when Howard came on board (even though people posited that he wouldn’t win). A lot of the infighting went away.
    IDS's problem was his weekly shellacking at PMQs which depressed and terrified backbenchers. At the ballot box, IDS did surprisingly well, which apparently escaped the notice of those plotting against him. Changing the subject, how is Francis Maude?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Fishing said:

    As ever, David H made a very cogent and interesting point, or series of them, in his post in November. I think the only thing Starmer could do to improve his chances would be to have a sex change. He hasn't been terrible as a shadow BrexSec, but he certainly hasn't achieved anything of note.

    OGH describes Corbyn's election campaign as "disastrous". I'm not sure that the campaign itself was - Labour ended roughly where it began. It was certainly no triumph, but as many posters have argued, when you can't really take a position on the key issue of the day, and when a key section of the electorate loathes you, the campaign needs to be amazing to stave off a dismal result. It was Corbyn's leadership this year that has been disastrous, rather than the campaign he ran.

    The Labour campaign was Ok, as far as it went. They set the agenda most days, and there were no obvious gaffes, apart from Corbyn’s Neil interview.

    The Labour manifesto was close to disastrous, in that it contained so many giveaways that it undermined any good that it might have done. The commentary on last night’s R4 Westminster Hour is well worth listening to here.

    The LibDem campaign, on the other hand, was disastrous, undermining the relatively strong position in which they started the election, and containing one tactical misjudgment after another.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    Starmer would seem very unlikely to reverse Labours fortunes in the north. He could make some impact on remania but that depends on Johnson not pivoting to bigger spending and taking that ground from them.

    Not sure how much his popularity with members is simply a by product of them not wanting Brexit to happen. Once it does happen does his popularity shrink?
    Yes it's notable all the top rated candidates were London remainers. Something has changed, and whoever pivots to a position that remainers can support in a post-brexit world is likely to have a head start.

    I suspect Flint's intervention was calculated on the assumption that Thornbury was the more wily and thus more dangerous between her and Starmer..
  • kle4 said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    No charisma, no obvious ideology and baggage from his time as DPP though. He may excite metropolitan Guardianistas (I said may) and the BAMEs will mostly stay loyal, but I don't see him as the man to reconnect with the white upper-lower classes.

    And as for retaking the Scottish seats that Labour needs ...
    The white skilled working class vote is probably lost to Labour for good, they polled better last Thursday with ABs than C2s and that vote coupled with C1s and DEs is the winning coalition Labour needs
    If they've lost the Scots and the WWCs then they are going to be a near-permanent opposition. They will do well with public sector ABs, but I don't see them making further inroads into private sector ABs, as they too obviously regard them as cash cows.

    I think that the English WWC will be the key swing demographic going ahead in the UK. But of course it's just a guess - you could be right.
    The electorate has broken primarily by age not class. The key thing Labour need to do is get much more than 15% of over 65s, it needs to be mid twenties at least.
    Well they go for triple lock etc and the WASPI bribe for future support.
    No idea what policies would get Labour vote up in that demographic as they get reliably supported by the Tories, anyone but Corbyn will help though.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Pulpstar said:

    To go further, the mere fact that a second ref was somehow seen as the "centre ground" on Brexit was quite frankly insulting to the vast majority that voted to leave I reckon.
    It was a window moved by parliament and the Labour party membership, not shared by the country at large.

    Perhaps it was insulting, but sometimes a group of people has to be insulted if it's for the good of the country. Personally I preferred Revoke over PV because a 2nd referendum would've been a bit of a farce.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    Starmer would seem very unlikely to reverse Labours fortunes in the north. He could make some impact on remania but that depends on Johnson not pivoting to bigger spending and taking that ground from them.

    Not sure how much his popularity with members is simply a by product of them not wanting Brexit to happen. Once it does happen does his popularity shrink?
    Starmer would be the candidate most feared by the Tories - he's the closest to a Blair that Labour has right now.
    For all the current Blair hate, he was an exceptional politician. Starmer is just a reasonable and intelligent lawyer, he has done nothing to deserve comparisons with Blair. Blair didnt win landslides by just being reasonable and not loony left.
    Blair did however build upon the work already done by Neil Kinnock and John Smith.

    Corbyn has undone a lot of that work so anyone wishing to lead Labour into power has a longer journey than was the case back in 2015..
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited December 2019
    Bored of Labour now.

    Quite bored of politics, too, TBH.

    Boris in in power for the next seven billion years. The drama has gone. All we have left is aftershocks, and this minor party leadership gossip.

    Time for us all to take a very deep breath and maybe a very long break.
  • Pulpstar said:

    To go further, the mere fact that a second ref was somehow seen as the "centre ground" on Brexit was quite frankly insulting to the vast majority that voted to leave I reckon.
    It was a window moved by parliament and the Labour party membership, not shared by the country at large.

    The country was and is divided over Brexit. There has never been a vast majority on either side and still isnt. Leave voters were simply both better represented in the GE and geographically their vote was more efficiently dispersed.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    IanB2 said:



    The Labour campaign was Ok, as far as it went. They set the agenda most days, and there were no obvious gaffes, apart from Corbyn’s Neil interview.

    The Labour manifesto was close to disastrous, in that it contained so many giveaways that it undermined any good that it might have done. The commentary on last night’s R4 Westminster Hour is well worth listening to here.

    The LibDem campaign, on the other hand, was disastrous, undermining the relatively strong position in which they started the election, and containing one tactical misjudgment after another.

    I agree with all that.

    In his memoirs - the best ever written imho - Nigel Lawson says that in the vast majority of election campaigns, most people have made their minds up before the start, and wait more or less patiently for election day. I think that's right - 2017 being the obvious exception in recent times.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    Starmer would seem very unlikely to reverse Labours fortunes in the north. He could make some impact on remania but that depends on Johnson not pivoting to bigger spending and taking that ground from them.
    Labour have a chance again once Brexit is done. The irony being that Corbyn wanted Brexit done.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,882
    Pulpstar said:

    In fairness to the Corbynites, there is no way Labour would be within 1239 votes of losing Hull East if they were not seen as blockers of Brexit & the payoff was gaining a single seat in London.

    They'd have sacrificed ground in London but retilting the lost votes away from the northern heartlands would have lead to a better result.

    I didn't see many Corbynites call for Labour to vote for either Tory Brexit deal. They threatened deselection for anyone voting for Boris' deal in fact.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    IanB2 said:

    Fishing said:

    As ever, David H made a very cogent and interesting point, or series of them, in his post in November. I think the only thing Starmer could do to improve his chances would be to have a sex change. He hasn't been terrible as a shadow BrexSec, but he certainly hasn't achieved anything of note.

    OGH describes Corbyn's election campaign as "disastrous". I'm not sure that the campaign itself was - Labour ended roughly where it began. It was certainly no triumph, but as many posters have argued, when you can't really take a position on the key issue of the day, and when a key section of the electorate loathes you, the campaign needs to be amazing to stave off a dismal result. It was Corbyn's leadership this year that has been disastrous, rather than the campaign he ran.

    The Labour campaign was Ok, as far as it went. They set the agenda most days, and there were no obvious gaffes, apart from Corbyn’s Neil interview.

    The Labour manifesto was close to disastrous, in that it contained so many giveaways that it undermined any good that it might have done. The commentary on last night’s R4 Westminster Hour is well worth listening to here.

    The LibDem campaign, on the other hand, was disastrous, undermining the relatively strong position in which they started the election, and containing one tactical misjudgment after another.
    This is fair, and devastating, assessment.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,454
    edited December 2019
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    Starmer would seem very unlikely to reverse Labours fortunes in the north. He could make some impact on remania but that depends on Johnson not pivoting to bigger spending and taking that ground from them.

    Not sure how much his popularity with members is simply a by product of them not wanting Brexit to happen. Once it does happen does his popularity shrink?
    Starmer would be the candidate most feared by the Tories - he's the closest to a Blair that Labour has right now.
    For all the current Blair hate, he was an exceptional politician. Starmer is just a reasonable and intelligent lawyer, he has done nothing to deserve comparisons with Blair. Blair didnt win landslides by just being reasonable and not loony left.
    Blair did however build upon the work already done by Neil Kinnock and John Smith.

    Corbyn has undone a lot of that work so anyone wishing to lead Labour into power has a longer journey than was the case back in 2015..
    Agree completely, the next leader is going to have tough battles primarily tackling the hard left ala Kinnock. It needs someone who can win a strong and fierce argument. Thats not Starmer or Thornberry.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    Byronic said:

    Bored of Labour now.

    Quite bored of politics, too, TBH.

    Boris in in power for the next seven billion years. The drama has gone. All we have left is aftershocks, and this minor party leadership gossip.

    Time for us all to take a very deep breath and maybe a very long break.

    Would you be happier if we had an election every fortnight?

    I think that might be a little too much drama for the rest of us though...
  • Pulpstar said:

    To go further, the mere fact that a second ref was somehow seen as the "centre ground" on Brexit was quite frankly insulting to the vast majority that voted to leave I reckon.
    It was a window moved by parliament and the Labour party membership, not shared by the country at large.

    The country was and is divided over Brexit. There has never been a vast majority on either side and still isnt. Leave voters were simply both better represented in the GE and geographically their vote was more efficiently dispersed.
    And Remain parties won more votes than Leave parties.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,555
    edited December 2019

    Pulpstar said:

    To go further, the mere fact that a second ref was somehow seen as the "centre ground" on Brexit was quite frankly insulting to the vast majority that voted to leave I reckon.
    It was a window moved by parliament and the Labour party membership, not shared by the country at large.

    The country was and is divided over Brexit. There has never been a vast majority on either side and still isnt. Leave voters were simply both better represented in the GE and geographically their vote was more efficiently dispersed.
    And Remain parties won more votes than Leave parties.
    Labour wasn't an unequivocally Remain party, nor could it have been with Corbyn at its head and hoping to retain English leave seats.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited December 2019
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    Starmer would seem very unlikely to reverse Labours fortunes in the north. He could make some impact on remania but that depends on Johnson not pivoting to bigger spending and taking that ground from them.

    Not sure how much his popularity with members is simply a by product of them not wanting Brexit to happen. Once it does happen does his popularity shrink?
    Starmer would be the candidate most feared by the Tories - he's the closest to a Blair that Labour has right now.
    That depends on how you divide attribution of the success that Blair had between his moderate ‘triangulated’ policies and his appealing (at the time) personality.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Fishing said:

    Byronic said:

    Bored of Labour now.

    Quite bored of politics, too, TBH.

    Boris in in power for the next seven billion years. The drama has gone. All we have left is aftershocks, and this minor party leadership gossip.

    Time for us all to take a very deep breath and maybe a very long break.

    Would you be happier if we had an election every fortnight?

    I think that might be a little too much drama for the rest of us though...
    On the contrary, I have enjoyed this feast of endless drama, since Scottish indyref and Corbyn's elevation, it has been a non stop carnival of WTAFery.

    But now it is drawing to a close. You can sense it. The energy drains away. Other dramas - America, China - return to centre stage.

    And personally I welcome the chance to stretch out and think Who Cares, for a while at least. Zzzz....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Byronic said:

    Bored of Labour now.

    Quite bored of politics, too, TBH.

    Boris in in power for the next seven billion years. The drama has gone. All we have left is aftershocks, and this minor party leadership gossip.

    Time for us all to take a very deep breath and maybe a very long break.


    You must be even more bored of RL stuff to think it was worth logging on to share that with us.
  • Whomever Labour choose he or she will have a grim time of it replying to the Budget. Javid will be under strict orders to spaff billions and billions on the North to totally obliterate Labour's fox, and there'll be nothing Labour can say. It'll be bloody.
  • Labour's campaign can't have been that much of a disaster if it got OGH to vote for them after vowing never to do so again whilst Magic Grandpa was in charge?

    Apologies if I'm mistaken though.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    What would make the LAB leadership election more interesting is if McDonnell stood down in Hayes & Harlington to enjoy a well earned retirement, then we can have a by election, and #SuperLaura can stand for LAB!
  • Pulpstar said:

    To go further, the mere fact that a second ref was somehow seen as the "centre ground" on Brexit was quite frankly insulting to the vast majority that voted to leave I reckon.
    It was a window moved by parliament and the Labour party membership, not shared by the country at large.

    The country was and is divided over Brexit. There has never been a vast majority on either side and still isnt. Leave voters were simply both better represented in the GE and geographically their vote was more efficiently dispersed.
    And Remain parties won more votes than Leave parties.
    And thats with more Tory remainers than Labour leavers.
  • Whomever Labour choose he or she will have a grim time of it replying to the Budget. Javid will be under strict orders to spaff billions and billions on the North to totally obliterate Labour's fox, and there'll be nothing Labour can say. It'll be bloody.

    The new leader won't be in place by then.

    I'm unclear whether John McDonnell is still Shadow Chancellor now or not If not, who will act as interim Shadow Chancellor?
  • Labour's campaign can't have been that much of a disaster if it got OGH to vote for them after vowing never to do so again whilst Magic Grandpa was in charge?

    Apologies if I'm mistaken though.

    Was that their objective or was it to at least get to a hung parliament?
  • Been looking at 1st time incumbency if anyone's interested!
    Labour took 28 seats from Con in 2017.
    In those, 24 had below average drop in Labour vote and only 4 higher.
    Average drop in all 28 was 4.3% compared to 7.9% nationally.
    Managed to retain 14 of the 28 seats even though Lab to Con swing in 2019 was bigger than Con to Lab in 2017 nationally.
    Conclusion is that 1st time incumbency is alive and well.
    All other things being equal, should make it pretty tough for Labour to claw back all the 50 seats they lost to Con last week. Especially if the new MP's concentrate on their constituencies for the next 4½ years.
    Or, the new Blair could be around the corner and they'll win them all and many more...…………….
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    Andy_JS said:

    Almost 59% think Thornberry would be a good leader?

    They’re doomed.

    That is quite shocking.
    One is tempted to call them stupid but that would be too funny in the circumstances.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,280
    edited December 2019
    Byronic said:

    Bored of Labour now.

    Quite bored of politics, too, TBH.

    Boris in in power for the next seven billion years. The drama has gone. All we have left is aftershocks, and this minor party leadership gossip.

    Time for us all to take a very deep breath and maybe a very long break.

    Yep, I don't feel as interested in politics now as I used to do. Also Trump's probably going to win easily next year due to the failure of the Democrats to understand why they lost last time.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,695
    Afternoon PB. I see Lady Muck's not very happy with Caroline Flint! :D
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Pulpstar said:

    To go further, the mere fact that a second ref was somehow seen as the "centre ground" on Brexit was quite frankly insulting to the vast majority that voted to leave I reckon.
    It was a window moved by parliament and the Labour party membership, not shared by the country at large.

    The country was and is divided over Brexit. There has never been a vast majority on either side and still isnt. Leave voters were simply both better represented in the GE and geographically their vote was more efficiently dispersed.
    And Remain parties won more votes than Leave parties.
    Only if you pretend Labour was or is a Remain party.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Labour's campaign can't have been that much of a disaster if it got OGH to vote for them after vowing never to do so again whilst Magic Grandpa was in charge?

    Apologies if I'm mistaken though.

    Something old something fool something nothing like springs to mind :)
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Fishing said:

    As ever, David H made a very cogent and interesting point, or series of them, in his post in November. I think the only thing Starmer could do to improve his chances would be to have a sex change. He hasn't been terrible as a shadow BrexSec, but he certainly hasn't achieved anything of note.

    OGH describes Corbyn's election campaign as "disastrous". I'm not sure that the campaign itself was - Labour ended roughly where it began. It was certainly no triumph, but as many posters have argued, when you can't really take a position on the key issue of the day, and when a key section of the electorate loathes you, the campaign needs to be amazing to stave off a dismal result. It was Corbyn's leadership this year that has been disastrous, rather than the campaign he ran.

    The only truly disastrous campaign was the Liberal Democrats..how many points did they lose during it? Didn't the spreads start at 44-48.
    It settled at 11.
    I know their votes increased but so did UKIP in 2015 with little to show for it and I recall many Lib Dem types on here saying that UKIPers shouldn't moan because that's just the system. What do I see all over SM now..yes the LDs moaning about the unfair voting system.

    I also think the LDs are going to get heavily investigated into their election spending. Peoples heads could roll.
  • Labour really needs to take a leaf from the Tory book. I know it’s a cliche but, the appointment of IDS notwithstanding, the party really can be ruthless in changing everything to win power. In the last 12 months it’s imported Vote Leave wholesale and expelled all remainers.

    There’s a whole new chapter ripe for addition to the excellent “The Conservatives” by Robert Harris. As I recall that left off before 2015 so there’s much material in analysing how the party has become more popular, and reinvented itself, in Government.

    The context is intriguing because this isn’t the first time the Tory Party has fallen out over trade and reinvented itself. It’s happened at least twice before.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    lolandol said:

    Been looking at 1st time incumbency if anyone's interested!
    Labour took 28 seats from Con in 2017.
    In those, 24 had below average drop in Labour vote and only 4 higher.
    Average drop in all 28 was 4.3% compared to 7.9% nationally.
    Managed to retain 14 of the 28 seats even though Lab to Con swing in 2019 was bigger than Con to Lab in 2017 nationally.
    Conclusion is that 1st time incumbency is alive and well.
    All other things being equal, should make it pretty tough for Labour to claw back all the 50 seats they lost to Con last week. Especially if the new MP's concentrate on their constituencies for the next 4½ years.
    Or, the new Blair could be around the corner and they'll win them all and many more...…………….

    It would be interesting to know how strong the Tory organisation is in those red wall seats.

    Normally it’s rare for any MP to get elected for the first time by gaining a marginal seat without pretty good backup, that organisation then enabling them - if they give it due attention - to do the between-election spadework needed to get that incumbency vote. But I’d be a little surprised if the Tory organisation in Wakefield and the rest is particularly strong, but others might actually know?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019
    I see we still have Labour, bar one, going full on its was the medja, its was all smears, and now people don't realize it will result in the Tories full on baby killing mode, plus of course Red Ken pops up with his Hitler Hitler Hitler routine.

    Do they not realize they are again signally oi Fred, Fred, yes you, you are as thick as shit because you have been conned by the media AGAIN.

    The bar one, was again Lisa Nandy. She was on R5 and was very impressive. Gave clear reasons why she thought Labour lost and even when given the opportunity to blast the media, I think she made a valid point that it is still far too London-centric and because of that miss so much of what is going on elsewhere in the country.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    IanB2 said:

    lolandol said:

    Been looking at 1st time incumbency if anyone's interested!
    Labour took 28 seats from Con in 2017.
    In those, 24 had below average drop in Labour vote and only 4 higher.
    Average drop in all 28 was 4.3% compared to 7.9% nationally.
    Managed to retain 14 of the 28 seats even though Lab to Con swing in 2019 was bigger than Con to Lab in 2017 nationally.
    Conclusion is that 1st time incumbency is alive and well.
    All other things being equal, should make it pretty tough for Labour to claw back all the 50 seats they lost to Con last week. Especially if the new MP's concentrate on their constituencies for the next 4½ years.
    Or, the new Blair could be around the corner and they'll win them all and many more...…………….

    It would be interesting to know how strong the Tory organisation is in those red wall seats.

    Normally it’s rare for any MP to get elected for the first time by gaining a marginal seat without pretty good backup, that organisation then enabling them - if they give it due attention - to do the between-election spadework needed to get that incumbency vote. But I’d be a little surprised if the Tory organisation in Wakefield and the rest is particularly strong, but others might actually know?
    It won't be but Boris seems to know that and will be throwing bones in the directions of the appropriate seats.

    I suspect Teesside is going to do very well out if Government investment in the next 5 years.
  • Starmer has no chance. Thing is, Momentum do not see this as a great disaster at all. They culled a few Blairites, and the Tories have just elected a neofascist islamophobe who will privatise the health service. What is not to like? Corbynites are in this for the long haul. One day, their time will come. It’s the moderates who are upset at losing, not the Corbynities.

    I mean, the number of times I have spoken to Corbynites over the last few years ending by saying, ‘But he’ll never win an election’. They invariably responded: ‘So what? We’re not going to win it anyway’. They really mean it. Because one day, ten or twenty years down the line, they think they will.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,399
    IanB2 said:

    Byronic said:

    Bored of Labour now.

    Quite bored of politics, too, TBH.

    Boris in in power for the next seven billion years. The drama has gone. All we have left is aftershocks, and this minor party leadership gossip.

    Time for us all to take a very deep breath and maybe a very long break.


    You must be even more bored of RL stuff to think it was worth logging on to share that with us.
    Male modelling isn't always exciting.
  • eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    lolandol said:

    Been looking at 1st time incumbency if anyone's interested!
    Labour took 28 seats from Con in 2017.
    In those, 24 had below average drop in Labour vote and only 4 higher.
    Average drop in all 28 was 4.3% compared to 7.9% nationally.
    Managed to retain 14 of the 28 seats even though Lab to Con swing in 2019 was bigger than Con to Lab in 2017 nationally.
    Conclusion is that 1st time incumbency is alive and well.
    All other things being equal, should make it pretty tough for Labour to claw back all the 50 seats they lost to Con last week. Especially if the new MP's concentrate on their constituencies for the next 4½ years.
    Or, the new Blair could be around the corner and they'll win them all and many more...…………….

    It would be interesting to know how strong the Tory organisation is in those red wall seats.

    Normally it’s rare for any MP to get elected for the first time by gaining a marginal seat without pretty good backup, that organisation then enabling them - if they give it due attention - to do the between-election spadework needed to get that incumbency vote. But I’d be a little surprised if the Tory organisation in Wakefield and the rest is particularly strong, but others might actually know?
    It won't be but Boris seems to know that and will be throwing bones in the directions of the appropriate seats.

    I suspect Teesside is going to do very well out if Government investment in the next 5 years.
    Seeing as this site is a font of all knowledge any mid size quoted companies that are well placed to do well out of such investment?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Labour's campaign can't have been that much of a disaster if it got OGH to vote for them after vowing never to do so again whilst Magic Grandpa was in charge?

    Apologies if I'm mistaken though.

    Indeed.

    Why should Labour ever ditch FPTP ?

    There are many LibDems who are willing to vote Labour for nothing in return.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,461
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    No charisma, no obvious ideology and baggage from his time as DPP though. He may excite metropolitan Guardianistas (I said may) and the BAMEs will mostly stay loyal, but I don't see him as the man to reconnect with the white upper-lower classes.

    And as for retaking the Scottish seats that Labour needs ...
    The white skilled working class vote is probably lost to Labour for good, they polled better last Thursday with ABs than C2s and that vote coupled with C1s and DEs is the winning coalition Labour needs
    'fot good' is a very long time. even predicting 10 years ahead is brave.
  • I see we still have Labour, bar one, going full on its was the medja, its was all smears, and now people don't realize it will result in the Tories full on baby killing mode, plus of course Red Ken pops up with his Hitler Hitler Hitler routine.

    Do they not realize they are again signally oi Fred, Fred, yes you, you are as thick as shit because you have been conned by the media AGAIN.

    The bar one, was again Lisa Nandy. She was on R5 and was very impressive. Gave clear reasons why she thought Labour lost and even when given the opportunity to blast the media, I think she made a valid point that it is still far too London-centric and because of that miss so much of what is going on elsewhere in the country.

    It’s worse. They risk a civil war in which the winner is seen to explicitly reject both “Fred“, and Remain/Rejoin. Their vote was flattered, I think, by tactically voting LibDems. Becoming Leave embracing, while not going after “Fred” might be terminal.
  • eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    lolandol said:

    Been looking at 1st time incumbency if anyone's interested!
    Labour took 28 seats from Con in 2017.
    In those, 24 had below average drop in Labour vote and only 4 higher.
    Average drop in all 28 was 4.3% compared to 7.9% nationally.
    Managed to retain 14 of the 28 seats even though Lab to Con swing in 2019 was bigger than Con to Lab in 2017 nationally.
    Conclusion is that 1st time incumbency is alive and well.
    All other things being equal, should make it pretty tough for Labour to claw back all the 50 seats they lost to Con last week. Especially if the new MP's concentrate on their constituencies for the next 4½ years.
    Or, the new Blair could be around the corner and they'll win them all and many more...…………….

    It would be interesting to know how strong the Tory organisation is in those red wall seats.

    Normally it’s rare for any MP to get elected for the first time by gaining a marginal seat without pretty good backup, that organisation then enabling them - if they give it due attention - to do the between-election spadework needed to get that incumbency vote. But I’d be a little surprised if the Tory organisation in Wakefield and the rest is particularly strong, but others might actually know?
    It won't be but Boris seems to know that and will be throwing bones in the directions of the appropriate seats.

    I suspect Teesside is going to do very well out if Government investment in the next 5 years.
    Seeing as this site is a font of all knowledge any mid size quoted companies that are well placed to do well out of such investment?
    I’d look at the smaller, specialist firms, that build and fit out hospitals. But DYOR and any movement might have already happened.
  • Seeing as this site is a font of all knowledge any mid size quoted companies that are well placed to do well out of such investment?

    M J Gleeson might be worth a look.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    I see we still have Labour, bar one, going full on its was the medja, its was all smears, and now people don't realize it will result in the Tories full on baby killing mode, plus of course Red Ken pops up with his Hitler Hitler Hitler routine.

    Do they not realize they are again signally oi Fred, Fred, yes you, you are as thick as shit because you have been conned by the media AGAIN.

    The bar one, was again Lisa Nandy. She was on R5 and was very impressive. Gave clear reasons why she thought Labour lost and even when given the opportunity to blast the media, I think she made a valid point that it is still far too London-centric and because of that miss so much of what is going on elsewhere in the country.

    Spot on - just think all the talk on Twitter, in the papers and of course on here about tactical voting which insofar as it happened mostly had the opposite effect to that intended. Really given all the talk of stupid northeners these days it begs one or two hilarious questions about who the canny folk really are.
  • Starmer has no chance. Thing is, Momentum do not see this as a great disaster at all. They culled a few Blairites, and the Tories have just elected a neofascist islamophobe who will privatise the health service. What is not to like? Corbynites are in this for the long haul. One day, their time will come. It’s the moderates who are upset at losing, not the Corbynities.

    I mean, the number of times I have spoken to Corbynites over the last few years ending by saying, ‘But he’ll never win an election’. They invariably responded: ‘So what? We’re not going to win it anyway’. They really mean it. Because one day, ten or twenty years down the line, they think they will.

    Like Terrorists, they only need to be lucky once...
  • Incidentally, anyone know the correct share of the vote for last week? Wiki figures look wrong when you look at Con and Lab votes compared to total votes, both higher than they state.
    Thanks.
  • Starmer has no chance. Thing is, Momentum do not see this as a great disaster at all. They culled a few Blairites, and the Tories have just elected a neofascist islamophobe who will privatise the health service. What is not to like? Corbynites are in this for the long haul. One day, their time will come. It’s the moderates who are upset at losing, not the Corbynities.

    I mean, the number of times I have spoken to Corbynites over the last few years ending by saying, ‘But he’ll never win an election’. They invariably responded: ‘So what? We’re not going to win it anyway’. They really mean it. Because one day, ten or twenty years down the line, they think they will.

    Yes, I've spoken to some like that.

    They generally claim that things have changed so much for the worse over the last decade, always using 2010 as the point for comparison. And then in the same breath almost they go on to denigrate Blair, Brown and New Labour, having just by implication praised their achievements.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited December 2019
    Others not so impressed with Mason's "analysis".....

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1206583933737078785?s=20
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited December 2019
    lolandol said:

    Been looking at 1st time incumbency if anyone's interested!
    Labour took 28 seats from Con in 2017.
    In those, 24 had below average drop in Labour vote and only 4 higher.
    Average drop in all 28 was 4.3% compared to 7.9% nationally.
    Managed to retain 14 of the 28 seats even though Lab to Con swing in 2019 was bigger than Con to Lab in 2017 nationally.
    Conclusion is that 1st time incumbency is alive and well.
    All other things being equal, should make it pretty tough for Labour to claw back all the 50 seats they lost to Con last week. Especially if the new MP's concentrate on their constituencies for the next 4½ years.
    Or, the new Blair could be around the corner and they'll win them all and many more...…………….

    Is that measuring 1st time incumbency or simply measuring the shift in voting coalitions? I'm assuming those 24 Labour seats were more remain than average for example. Like the Tory MP who won Mansfield last time but now has a "stonking" majority, I'm sure he's a lovely bloke but more likely he's just being swept up on a Lab -> Con shift over brexit.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    eek said:


    It won't be but Boris seems to know that and will be throwing bones in the directions of the appropriate seats.

    I suspect Teesside is going to do very well out if Government investment in the next 5 years.

    The north has sat up and noted the cash chucked to Northern Ireland in the May ministry.
  • I like Starmer - he is a serious, intelligent and articulate man of substance. But I don't think he has the salesman skills necessary to be an effective leader in today's media environment. He needs to be an integral part of the shadow Cabinet, however.
    I suspect that one of the non-London women will be the best candidate, which one I don't know. The key thing is that the Left accept that the public won't vote for a full on Socialist manifesto, and accept that the party needs to come to its policy positions via weight of argument not weight of numbers.
    I don't think Labour had a bad election campaign. We had an unpopular leader, a too extreme manifesto and faced an impossible choice on Brexit. The media were a factor but there's no point harping on about it, better to figure out how Blair era Labour was able to neutralise it.
    I actually think Labour can win the next election, as long as we put our house in order. If the government screw things up - especially on Brexit where they are taking huge risks with the economy - then Labour can win in 2024.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited December 2019

    Others not so impressed with Mason's "analysis".....

    twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1206583933737078785?s=20

    The current Labour party already have several newspapers, the Mirror for one and of course The Morning Star, the true voice of the cause.

    As for absorbing the Green Party, he means a) go even further left and b) make Climate Change become the over-arching issue behind everything. Good luck getting Grismby man on-board if every policy is based on listening to XR.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    I wouldn't rule out Starmer winning back Northern seats just because he's a London remainer. Two things to remember, in the minds of voters it is the leader that takes all the credit and the baggage. Corbyn is the one being seen as the betrayer of brexit to those leave voting seats, Starmer is too unknown and made no appearance in the campaign. You also don't have to be northern to connect with northern voters (as indeed Boris has just proved).

    Now I'm not convinced on Starmer because I haven't really seen much from him yet. The lack of charisma is not much of an issue, we have 5 years before an election, and Boris already has the charisma contest won. You can win without charisma (Hollande Mr Normal vs Sarkozy in France for example).

    I may join some supporter system to vote for next leader. If he stands it should be Dan Jarvis. He would really help wipe the slate clean with all that was toxic about Corbyn. He's like the anti Corbyn. Sure he's a bit wooden but again, Labour doesn't need a huge charismatic personality right now, there's no campaign. They need to gain back trust of voters.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    We really need a roflmao button.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,280
    "Ninety peers call for Baroness Tonge to issue unqualified apology for blaming Corbyn defeat on Israel"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/15/ninety-peers-call-baroness-tonge-issue-unqualified-apology-blaming
  • HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Starmer is by far the most credible potential Labour leader on offer, the brightest and the most centrist, great news for the Tories if he does not get it

    No charisma, no obvious ideology and baggage from his time as DPP though. He may excite metropolitan Guardianistas (I said may) and the BAMEs will mostly stay loyal, but I don't see him as the man to reconnect with the white upper-lower classes.

    And as for retaking the Scottish seats that Labour needs ...
    The white skilled working class vote is probably lost to Labour for good, they polled better last Thursday with ABs than C2s and that vote coupled with C1s and DEs is the winning coalition Labour needs
    The ABs might drift away somewhat when faced with the prospect of financial ruin under a majority Labour government... Voting under the hot passion of trying to thwart Brexit via a hung parliament or to blunt a Tory majority is very different from voting for a Momentum manifesto that might be implemented.
  • I’m so excited.

    Lest we forget Labour leadership elections are conducted under the alternative vote system, which is the finest voting system known to anyone woman born.

    Expect regular AV threads between now and the result.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Perhaps someone well informed can make money out of the Betfair market "Meaningful Vote to pass in 2019?"

    It has been waggling about wildly over the last 24 hours.
  • I’m so excited.

    Lest we forget Labour leadership elections are conducted under the alternative vote system, which is the finest voting system known to anyone woman born.

    Expect regular AV threads between now and the result.

    I am more excited that Christmas is nearly here and of course in Chez Urquhart that means watching the best Christmas movie ever....
  • There is another thing about this Labour assault on the BBC....its makes it much easier for Dom to implement his wish to radically reform it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited December 2019

    I’m so excited.

    Lest we forget Labour leadership elections are conducted under the alternative vote system, which is the finest voting system known to anyone woman born.

    Expect regular AV threads between now and the result.

    I am more excited that Christmas is nearly here and of course in Chez Urquhart that means watching the best Christmas movie ever....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nj-YK3JJCIU

    Love Actually?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    I’m so excited.

    Lest we forget Labour leadership elections are conducted under the alternative vote system, which is the finest voting system known to anyone woman born.

    Expect regular AV threads between now and the result.

    I am more excited that Christmas is nearly here and of course in Chez Urquhart that means watching the best Christmas movie ever....
    The Wizard of Oz?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257

    I like Starmer - he is a serious, intelligent and articulate man of substance. But I don't think he has the salesman skills necessary to be an effective leader in today's media environment. He needs to be an integral part of the shadow Cabinet, however.
    I suspect that one of the non-London women will be the best candidate, which one I don't know. The key thing is that the Left accept that the public won't vote for a full on Socialist manifesto, and accept that the party needs to come to its policy positions via weight of argument not weight of numbers.
    I don't think Labour had a bad election campaign. We had an unpopular leader, a too extreme manifesto and faced an impossible choice on Brexit. The media were a factor but there's no point harping on about it, better to figure out how Blair era Labour was able to neutralise it.
    I actually think Labour can win the next election, as long as we put our house in order. If the government screw things up - especially on Brexit where they are taking huge risks with the economy - then Labour can win in 2024.

    I think that's a bit optimistic, but it's worth remembering that back in 2005 there were questions about how the Conservatives would ever win another election and even whether the Lib Dems might overtake them/the Lib Dems offering the real opposition to Labour.

    What happened after that was a combination of things largely beyond Labour's control (worldwide financial crash - we could have been better prepared, but we did not stand out as being excessively badly hit compared to other nations) and the Conservatives choosing a reasonably telegenic and moderate leader who got them a second hearing with people who wouldn't have voted for Howard or IDS.

    Much the same in 1997 (though Blair was particularly good at appealing beyond Labour's base and some Tory wounds, particularly the infighting on Europe, were self-inflicted). We'll have another big recession. It will likely be tied (rightly or wrongly) to Brexit. If Labour have chosen someone halfway competent then they'll have a good chance. Of course, neither, or at least only one of those things, may have happened by the next election.
  • I’m so excited.

    Lest we forget Labour leadership elections are conducted under the alternative vote system, which is the finest voting system known to anyone woman born.

    Expect regular AV threads between now and the result.

    I am more excited that Christmas is nearly here and of course in Chez Urquhart that means watching the best Christmas movie ever....
    The Empire Strikes Back?

    Well that film has more snow in it than Die Hard.

    Die Hard is not a Christmas film, think about it, the lead character sneaks around at night in tower hiding from Alan Rickman, Die Hard is a Harry Potter film.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    @ThescreamingEagles What do you make of the Sheffield Hallam result ?
    Must be ripe for a Tory bounce back post Brexit (Only 5k away now). Probably the worst result of the night for the Lib Dems.
  • lolandol said:

    Incidentally, anyone know the correct share of the vote for last week? Wiki figures look wrong when you look at Con and Lab votes compared to total votes, both higher than they state.
    Thanks.

    Are you comparing UK or GB shares? Both are on the wiki page for polling for the next GE.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

    The GB shares are Con 44.7% Lab 32.9% LD 11.8%, 4.0% SNP, 2.8% Green, 2.1% BXP at a GB level.

    Opinium got their final poll spot on. 45% Con, 33% Lab, 12% LD





  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    One interesting aspect of the tory pivot to build a blue wall. What will happen to all those southern shires? Obviously with Corbyn in the picture they would always stay blue. But if the tories really do enact a big pitch leftwards on economics, increased spending, investment in the North etc, are any of those southern seats that Blair won in 1997 vulnerable to going yellow perhaps? Or maybe some sort of Farage Reform right wing party taking votes. Probably not in the short term but as the tories reorient themselves to the North it shouldn't be forgotten that politics abhors a vacuum and they've lost Southern seats before.
This discussion has been closed.