Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer now firm odds-on favourite to succeed Corbyn

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited January 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Starmer now firm odds-on favourite to succeed Corbyn

Inevitably the YouGov poll of Labour members that came out last night has had a big impact on the the Corbyn succession betting. That the former Director of Public Prosecutions who has only been MP since 2015 has such a clear leading the poll is impacting on the betting and it is hard seeing him being beaten.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited January 2020
    Hurrah.

    Hopefully the actual result won’t be tears for Keir’s supporters.
  • Second like Wrong Daily
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Koronation for Keith !
  • This field is even less inspiring than the last two Conservative contests. This was always the real problem for Corbyn's opponents, and now also his allies: there is no obvious successor boasting charisma and achievement.
  • Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    FPT
    The main problem with Starmer (apart from him being incredibly boring) is his positioning on Brexit.

    Are Labour really going to be stupid enough to jump from telling people that Boris couldn't get a deal, that nothing could be changed, that we were inevitably doomed into the remainer pit of the EU will dictate all the terms of our trade deal, we remain inferior and subservient, this is all hopeless and we are all doomed yet again? Because if they do 2019 will not be the bottom of the cycle.

    Labour need to accept Brexit like they promised to do. This does not mean that they can't make the case, for example, for a CU, it just means that they need to have unequivocally accepted the principle rather than the process. I am far from persuaded that Starmer is that man. He still thinks he knows better.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,772
    And this seems a massive over-reaction to a single poll. Have Yougov polled on how people think Boris is going to manage his minority government yet?
  • Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    One thing that made Keir look good toward the fag end of the last parliament is that he did the closing speeches for many of the votes the Government lost on Brexit etc.
    That won't be the case now.
  • Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    Boris might be advised to return to the pre-Thatcher system of referring most questions to the relevant department ministers.

    I expect there will also be CCHQ pressure on the new Speaker to restrict PMQs to a strict 30 minutes, and firm instructions to Conservative backbenchers to fill as much time as possible with noisy barracking and applause.

    The whips will also be planting friendly questions with dozens of new MPs eager to get their names in the local paper.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.

    The one thing to bear in mind in that analysis is that Johnson is unlikely to last long. If he doesn’t feel the need to go and make some lovely cash on the US lecture circuit and presenting Have I Got News For You, he will find a way to epically screw up and be rapidly removed.

    He was elected by the Tories because they considered - correctly, as it transpired - that he would win them a big majority in an election. Now he’s done that, well done him. But they could now easily consider they want somebody else to consolidate the new government and remove him swiftly.
  • What are the next big events? Brexit at the end of the month and a Cabinet reshuffle. Has Boris given a date for the reshuffle?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.

    Have you been correct on anything, ever?
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 405

    This was always the real problem for Corbyn's opponents, and now also his allies: there is no obvious successor boasting charisma and achievement.

    Do we really need charisma in a PM?

    Arguably, our greatest and most productive peacetime PM was Clem Attlee, who may have been our least charismatic. And the reason he probably wasn't (John Major) is still in my list of the two or three most impressive PMs of my life - which includes Attlee's tenure.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    I wonder if there will be any consolidation of the 'get a woman' vote. I would expect Cooper and Phillips' votes to go Starmer in this scenario, but given the gender issue perhaps that isn't guaranteed.

    I think Starmer would be good. The LOTO shouldn't be a figure of widespread derision. It's not good for democracy nor for the Tory Government. He won't win, but that's because it's not his to win, it's Boris's to lose.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    DavidL said:

    FPT
    The main problem with Starmer (apart from him being incredibly boring) is his positioning on Brexit.

    Are Labour really going to be stupid enough to jump from telling people that Boris couldn't get a deal, that nothing could be changed, that we were inevitably doomed into the remainer pit of the EU will dictate all the terms of our trade deal, we remain inferior and subservient, this is all hopeless and we are all doomed yet again? Because if they do 2019 will not be the bottom of the cycle.

    Labour need to accept Brexit like they promised to do. This does not mean that they can't make the case, for example, for a CU, it just means that they need to have unequivocally accepted the principle rather than the process. I am far from persuaded that Starmer is that man. He still thinks he knows better.

    What positioning ?

    Boris has an unassailable majority for a full term, so it will all be about examining and critiquing whatever settlement he comes up with. That we are leaving is entirely outside the influence of any party of opposition.
    None of which parties ‘have’ to do anything Tories tell them. Or make any meaningless declarations of principle.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    Bluster can win out. But over a long period and if the bluster is increasingly divergent from delivery then Starmer could be what Labour needs, despite his being an arch remainer. I hope the other candidates put up a testing challenge.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    ydoethur said:

    Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.

    The one thing to bear in mind in that analysis is that Johnson is unlikely to last long. If he doesn’t feel the need to go and make some lovely cash on the US lecture circuit and presenting Have I Got News For You, he will find a way to epically screw up and be rapidly removed.

    He was elected by the Tories because they considered - correctly, as it transpired - that he would win them a big majority in an election. Now he’s done that, well done him. But they could now easily consider they want somebody else to consolidate the new government and remove him swiftly.
    Still underestimating Boris ?
  • What are the next big events? Brexit at the end of the month and a Cabinet reshuffle. Has Boris given a date for the reshuffle?

    The budget, expected in February.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    TGOHF666 said:
    Given who kurtz previously allied with hes clearly very flexible.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Flanner said:

    This was always the real problem for Corbyn's opponents, and now also his allies: there is no obvious successor boasting charisma and achievement.

    Do we really need charisma in a PM?

    Arguably, our greatest and most productive peacetime PM was Clem Attlee, who may have been our least charismatic. And the reason he probably wasn't (John Major) is still in my list of the two or three most impressive PMs of my life - which includes Attlee's tenure.

    The principle quality required will be patience. It’s going to be a long haul.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    TGOHF666 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.

    The one thing to bear in mind in that analysis is that Johnson is unlikely to last long. If he doesn’t feel the need to go and make some lovely cash on the US lecture circuit and presenting Have I Got News For You, he will find a way to epically screw up and be rapidly removed.

    He was elected by the Tories because they considered - correctly, as it transpired - that he would win them a big majority in an election. Now he’s done that, well done him. But they could now easily consider they want somebody else to consolidate the new government and remove him swiftly.
    Still underestimating Boris ?
    Possibly.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    forensic analysis is for back room bores like Keith. Not for leaders.

    Keith forensically examined Corbyns manifesto and thought it was the basis to win an election - Id file his analysis in the bin.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    Flanner said:

    This was always the real problem for Corbyn's opponents, and now also his allies: there is no obvious successor boasting charisma and achievement.

    Do we really need charisma in a PM?

    Arguably, our greatest and most productive peacetime PM was Clem Attlee, who may have been our least charismatic. And the reason he probably wasn't (John Major) is still in my list of the two or three most impressive PMs of my life - which includes Attlee's tenure.

    No we dont need it in a PM. But these days you probably do need it in spades to become PM.

    That doesn't mean you need a Boris type for everyone, but they need something.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    On topic: Mike says, "The next step in this race is for Labour’s NEC to agree the rules and set out the timetable".

    Yes - and if the last Labour leader election process is a guide this will take four months. Therefore the earliest that a new leader will be in post is mid May.

    As I`ve posted on here before a few times, knowledge of the time the process will take is not yet reflected in the Corbyn Exit Date BF market. True that "Leaving date Apr-Jun 2020" has come down from 8 a while back to 3.65 now, but is still a good bet IMO.

    1.38 Jan - Mar 2020 is a lay.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    TGOHF666 said:

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    forensic analysis is for back room bores like Keith. Not for leaders.

    Keith forensically examined Corbyns manifesto and thought it was the basis to win an election - Id file his analysis in the bin.
    Keith did - Keir (probably) hated it but had to go along with the manifesto because he wasn't in charge and it was too late to change it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    Flanner said:

    This was always the real problem for Corbyn's opponents, and now also his allies: there is no obvious successor boasting charisma and achievement.

    Do we really need charisma in a PM?

    Arguably, our greatest and most productive peacetime PM was Clem Attlee, who may have been our least charismatic. And the reason he probably wasn't (John Major) is still in my list of the two or three most impressive PMs of my life - which includes Attlee's tenure.

    Unusual for a PM to win from opposition without at least some charisma. Brown, May, Major, Baldwin, Home were all selected while in government. Attlee is a dazzling exception but he had been Deputy Prime Minister less than two months before and the radical left was riding a wave of popularity at the time. I suppose Heath might be another possible exception. However, the likes of Gaitskell, Foot and Howard are clear counter arguments.

    Not to say it’s impossible, of course, but it would need the right circumstances.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    TGOHF666 said:

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    forensic analysis is for back room bores like Keith. Not for leaders.

    Keith forensically examined Corbyns manifesto and thought it was the basis to win an election - Id file his analysis in the bin.
    Who or what is Keith?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    RobD said:

    kinabalu said:

    philiph said:

    .

    .
    4 million? Isn't that just under half the number of children in the country?
    I think this is a very big issue for Labour. I mean if Boris convinced the top 5 billionaires in the world to move here and pay taxes here, that would all of a sudden put significant number of children in relative poverty. It’s a complete nonsense statistic designed for perpetual left wing grievance.

    When I was growing up in the 80s with one parent working full time and one part time when we were young then full time as I was older

    - it was difficult to afford clothes and shoes
    - we couldn’t afford to go on holiday every year
    - We rented phone and tv etc as parents couldn’t have afforded to pay out lump sum
    - we never had branded goods, we never ate out - although we might get fish and chips

    The above only started to change when my mum and dad could remortgage and take advantage of equity.

    Even in school there was one teacher for each of the fourteen classes, a secretary and head teacher. Now there are assistants and relief teachers left right and centre.

    For Labour to paint this as some kind of terrible drop in standards is lunacy - they should still be taking credit for investments they supported in education when they got voted in in 1997.

    Inb4 someone posts four Yorkshire men youtube
    Ah yes, but my point is that we weren’t poor. There were plenty of people whose parents didn’t work, who had very little indeed, and who I would class as living in poverty. Relative poverty completely erases the link between poverty and the essential basic things required such as food and clothing.

    The way universal credit has been implemented in this country has caused great harm with people being made to wait for help for 5 weeks just at the point they need help. That is a real issue, but when you equate that with the kind numbers of people in relative poverty people don’t believe it.

    If Labour had relied on absolute poverty then the numbers in relation to UC and if foodbank use statistics are in any way helpful, then we would be seeing massive growth in poverty but on much lower numbers. People would be able to believe the numbers.

    Another bugbear of mine is foodbank statistics. I haven’t seen them recently but the opening of new locations is counted by them as additional need. Obviously they have their own agenda for this but a better measurement would be like for like increase in existing locations, much as is used in retail. There is a foodbank in the church I go to and they have reported numbers of users are up with UC delays accounting for half of all users!
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    eek said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    forensic analysis is for back room bores like Keith. Not for leaders.

    Keith forensically examined Corbyns manifesto and thought it was the basis to win an election - Id file his analysis in the bin.
    Keith did - Keir (probably) hated it but had to go along with the manifesto because he wasn't in charge and it was too late to change it.
    So he’s a hypocrite?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited January 2020
    In this country someone with Kier Starmer’s background does not achieve what he has achieved without being very smart, very tough and very single-minded. Nothing has ever been put on a plate for him. That matters.

    Is Starmer the perfect candidate? Not at all. He is undoubtedly compromised by remaining in the shadow cabinet while Labour became institutionally anti-Semitic. That will need a lot of explaining and a lot of repentance. But the raw politics is that if he had walked out he would never have been able to mount a leadership bid as he’d be tainted by disloyalty.

    There is also a danger Starmer could be too lawyerly - risk adverse, unable to connect, dour. He is not a great public speaker. But Labour’s greatest leader was not exactly a showman. Attlee, though, knew his party and how to manage it into power so that it could transform lives.

    I am not saying Starmer is a new Attlee, but a methodical unifier who can hit the net when presented with open goals, and who doesn’t frighten great swathes of the electorate, is going to be a major upgrade on what Labour has been offering for the last 10 years.

    McCluskey and the current leadership team, as well as Momentum, will do all they can to prevent him winning. That may well include supporting Angela Rayner.
  • ydoethur said:

    Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.

    The one thing to bear in mind in that analysis is that Johnson is unlikely to last long. If he doesn’t feel the need to go and make some lovely cash on the US lecture circuit and presenting Have I Got News For You, he will find a way to epically screw up and be rapidly removed.

    He was elected by the Tories because they considered - correctly, as it transpired - that he would win them a big majority in an election. Now he’s done that, well done him. But they could now easily consider they want somebody else to consolidate the new government and remove him swiftly.
    Yes, I think Boris could be a latter-day Anthony Eden. Even before Suez there were Tory grumblings that Eden, though commanding high expectations, turned out to be all sizzle and no substance when he finally ascended to the premiership. The Tory knives will be out for Boris at the first sign of a stumble. (You can write that down.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.

    Agreed. And despite my leanings to a more radical politics than Starmer will probably embrace, I'm on board. More than this, I'm feeling the 1st stirrings of excitement. Which is great because the biggest impact of Dec 12 on me (other than the humongous betting win which did not help) was a loss of interest in politics. Imagine if end 2020 sees Trump out and Starmer leading Johnson by miles in "Best PM" polls having just completed a triumphant series of open air meetings in left behind places talking to white working class audiences about white working class concerns.
  • ydoethur said:

    Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.

    The one thing to bear in mind in that analysis is that Johnson is unlikely to last long. If he doesn’t feel the need to go and make some lovely cash on the US lecture circuit and presenting Have I Got News For You, he will find a way to epically screw up and be rapidly removed.

    He was elected by the Tories because they considered - correctly, as it transpired - that he would win them a big majority in an election. Now he’s done that, well done him. But they could now easily consider they want somebody else to consolidate the new government and remove him swiftly.
    You mean Boris as the Conservative Party's Tony Blair: elected and then tolerated only while he looked like an election winner? It is possible. Look how quickly Theresa May fell from grace.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/07/12/theresa-mays-favourability-score-plummets-new-low
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    What are the next big events? Brexit at the end of the month and a Cabinet reshuffle. Has Boris given a date for the reshuffle?

    “Brexit at the end of the month“?! Are you mad? Brexit is never going to end.

    Just as every failure of the last half century has been blamed on Brussels, you can be sure that every failure of the next half century will be blamed on Brexit.

    Eventually, England will grow up and understand her true role in the world. But we’ll all be lang deid.


  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    I'm late on this, but has anyone referred to him as Grievous Bodily Starmer yet?

    A shame Ms Harman isn't still Deputy Leader. They would have dovetailed well as a pair.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited January 2020

    What are the next big events? Brexit at the end of the month and a Cabinet reshuffle. Has Boris given a date for the reshuffle?

    “Brexit at the end of the month“?! Are you mad? Brexit is never going to end.

    Just as every failure of the last half century has been blamed on Brussels, you can be sure that every failure of the next half century will be blamed on Brexit.

    Eventually, England will grow up and understand her true role in the world. But we’ll all be lang deid.


    Brexit means leaving the EU and we shall be doing so at the end of January. Therefore Brexit will be done.

    There is a lot more to happen in the future obvs, within the transitional period and beyond. But whatever happens we shall be outside of the EU, which is what the public voted for.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Endillion said:

    I'm late on this, but has anyone referred to him as Grievous Bodily Starmer yet?

    A shame Ms Harman isn't still Deputy Leader. They would have dovetailed well as a pair.

    I think that Starmer`s role in the construction of the Benn Act will come back to bite him.
  • A New Year, a return to old skool 'we hold all the cards' bollox.

    'A united Britain will have the upper hand over a divided and declining European Union'

    https://tinyurl.com/tl9afec

    'For the first time in living memory, defending their new Midlands and Northern seats, the Tories have a powerful electoral imperative to govern as “One Nation Conservatives”.'

    Anyone care to speculate on the geographical boundaries of this 'One Nation'?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    ydoethur said:

    Starmer feels like a good choice for Labour. I can already detect the whiff of panic amongst the Tories. In their heart of hearts they must know that the 'Boris' phenomenon is likely to have a very short shelf life, with the public soon becoming weary of its inherent frivolousness. The northern oiks will melt away ('Voted Tory once. Nivver again!') and they'll be staring at a lot of burnt bridges. Starmer the Charmer might well be the one to capitalize on the Tories' Brexit recklessness.

    The one thing to bear in mind in that analysis is that Johnson is unlikely to last long. If he doesn’t feel the need to go and make some lovely cash on the US lecture circuit and presenting Have I Got News For You, he will find a way to epically screw up and be rapidly removed.

    He was elected by the Tories because they considered - correctly, as it transpired - that he would win them a big majority in an election. Now he’s done that, well done him. But they could now easily consider they want somebody else to consolidate the new government and remove him swiftly.
    You mean Boris as the Conservative Party's Tony Blair: elected and then tolerated only while he looked like an election winner? It is possible. Look how quickly Theresa May fell from grace.
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/07/12/theresa-mays-favourability-score-plummets-new-low
    Or he could be a perfectly normal Tory leader like all the others, who are ditched as soon as they become liabilities.
  • ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    forensic analysis is for back room bores like Keith. Not for leaders.

    Keith forensically examined Corbyns manifesto and thought it was the basis to win an election - Id file his analysis in the bin.
    Who or what is Keith?
    Harry's trying to start a meme.
  • I don't like relative poverty statistics as it means you can never make any progress, and also relative poverty tends to fall in a recession as median incomes drop, which is really a nonsense. I would split people into 4 categories:

    Poor - Not having enough to meet basic needs like food, heating and clothing
    Just about managing - Can meet basic needs but have to scrimp and save for higher needs like holidays. Would struggle with a financial emergency like major car repairs.
    Comfortable - Have enough to cover both basic and higher needs with a buffer in case of emergencies
    Rich - Have far more wealth than they need and many assets.

    One of the thing that bugs me is that assessments of wealth tend to only focus on income and not expenses. For example, many retired people have lower incomes but also lower expenses and so are comfortable, while relatively high earners in London and SE can still only be just about managing due to high cost of living.
  • Stocky said:

    Endillion said:

    I'm late on this, but has anyone referred to him as Grievous Bodily Starmer yet?

    A shame Ms Harman isn't still Deputy Leader. They would have dovetailed well as a pair.

    I think that Starmer`s role in the construction of the Benn Act will come back to bite him.
    Why? If Brexit is great, with an optimal relationship with the EU, then Starms can claim that it was the Benn Act that stopped the impetuous Boris from driving us over the No-Deal cliff. If Brexit is crap it will all be Boris's fault anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    No-one gives a shit about detail and forensic analysis any more.

    What does he look like on a stuck zip line?

    And can Starmer do this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhxilSeFqMI

  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    forensic analysis is for back room bores like Keith. Not for leaders.

    Keith forensically examined Corbyns manifesto and thought it was the basis to win an election - Id file his analysis in the bin.
    Who or what is Keith?
    Harry's trying to start a meme.
    What’s your thoughts on YouGov polling being carried out on Sturgeons successor ? Good planning by the SNP ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    forensic analysis is for back room bores like Keith. Not for leaders.

    Keith forensically examined Corbyns manifesto and thought it was the basis to win an election - Id file his analysis in the bin.
    Who or what is Keith?
    Harry's trying to start a meme.
    Without success, apparently.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT
    The main problem with Starmer (apart from him being incredibly boring) is his positioning on Brexit.

    Are Labour really going to be stupid enough to jump from telling people that Boris couldn't get a deal, that nothing could be changed, that we were inevitably doomed into the remainer pit of the EU will dictate all the terms of our trade deal, we remain inferior and subservient, this is all hopeless and we are all doomed yet again? Because if they do 2019 will not be the bottom of the cycle.

    Labour need to accept Brexit like they promised to do. This does not mean that they can't make the case, for example, for a CU, it just means that they need to have unequivocally accepted the principle rather than the process. I am far from persuaded that Starmer is that man. He still thinks he knows better.

    What positioning ?

    Boris has an unassailable majority for a full term, so it will all be about examining and critiquing whatever settlement he comes up with. That we are leaving is entirely outside the influence of any party of opposition.
    None of which parties ‘have’ to do anything Tories tell them. Or make any meaningless declarations of principle.
    Agreed.

    Labour don’t have to do anything, except wait.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    No-one gives a shit about detail and forensic analysis any more.

    What does he look like on a stuck zip line?

    And can Starmer do this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhxilSeFqMI

    In your own words, no one gives a shit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    What are the next big events? Brexit at the end of the month and a Cabinet reshuffle. Has Boris given a date for the reshuffle?

    “Brexit at the end of the month“?! Are you mad? Brexit is never going to end.

    Just as every failure of the last half century has been blamed on Brussels, you can be sure that every failure of the next half century will be blamed on Brexit.

    Eventually, England will grow up and understand her true role in the world. But we’ll all be lang deid.


    All the Scots will anyway. But if you must eat deep-fried pizza....
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited January 2020
    @TSE did you know your Northern Rail fare increase is subsidising German Train fare cuts...

    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1212664866001043457
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    ydoethur said:

    Cookie said:

    Mr. Cwsc, I must leap to Labour's defence, here.

    Equality of opportunities, not outcomes, is what matters.

    The problem is that when you never elect a woman to the top job, it is strongly suggestive of bias in the appointments system (whether conscious or unconscious).

    Labour are biased. It makes their pronouncements (e.g., on women on the boards of top companies) look ridiculous.

    There are at least two female candidates way better than Starmer (Nandy and Rayner).

    There is at least one female candidate (Thornberry) as good as Starmer from the same paramilitary metropolitan wing of the party.

    Every other organisation has it drummed in to their heads that between two equal candidates (a man and a woman), you should select the woman.

    There is no excuse for electing another man, when there are abundant female candidates at least as good. Starmer is nothing special.
    'Better', though, is highly subjective. Everyone has their own preferences, their own views of who might best appeal to the voters the party needs to win over, and the relative importance of the two aspects.

    I wouldn't vote for a Labour Party led by Keir Starmer - but tbh when I start voting Labour we're in Labour landslide territory. But the prospect of KSIPM wouldn't fill be with the visceral sense of nausea that Corbyn did or RLB would; nor the sense of furious anger that Emily Thornberry as PM would. I'd say that's a good indicator that he's a candidate that wouldn't alienate the voters.
    I personally would still prefer Lisa Nandy. But then I'm a northern leaver, and the Labour Party membership are London Remainers.

    Either way, I certainly wouldn't say it's obvious that there are 'better' candidates than Starmer.
    Agreed. Except there is a distinct possibility I would vote for Labour led by Starmer if the alternative is the Tories led by Johnson. May depend on where I’m living and what I’m doing by then, though.

    My view is that Starmer would free up a lot of soft Tories to vote LibDem. That could be a very big deal.

    Spot on.

    Most of the analysis focuses on how Starmer would affect the Con/Lab battle, however, if he wins he will also affect the Con/LD battle, strongly in favour of the LDs. Getting rid of Corbyn is a boon to the Lib Dems.

    There are approximately 100 Con/Lab battleground seats.

    There are approximately 50 Con/LD battleground seats.

    By focussing solely on the 100 Con/Lab seats it is easy to assume that Labour cannot win in 2024. But take into consideration an LD boost and 2024 looks far from certain.

    Tories better pray that RLB wins.

    (Incidentally, not a single one of those 150 seats is in Scotland.)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Tories still seem to be in full election fighting mode.
    Five years of that could get rather wearing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    edited January 2020

    I don't like relative poverty statistics as it means you can never make any progress, and also relative poverty tends to fall in a recession as median incomes drop, which is really a nonsense. I would split people into 4 categories:

    Poor - Not having enough to meet basic needs like food, heating and clothing
    Just about managing - Can meet basic needs but have to scrimp and save for higher needs like holidays. Would struggle with a financial emergency like major car repairs.
    Comfortable - Have enough to cover both basic and higher needs with a buffer in case of emergencies
    Rich - Have far more wealth than they need and many assets.

    One of the thing that bugs me is that assessments of wealth tend to only focus on income and not expenses. For example, many retired people have lower incomes but also lower expenses and so are comfortable, while relatively high earners in London and SE can still only be just about managing due to high cost of living.

    Have to say , they should get out of London , you can have a much better life on less money in other parts of the country and if you are lucky enough to be able to get the big money as well it is even better.
    London is like a hamster wheel.
    PS: your categories are perfect
  • TGOHF666 said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    forensic analysis is for back room bores like Keith. Not for leaders.

    Keith forensically examined Corbyns manifesto and thought it was the basis to win an election - Id file his analysis in the bin.
    Who or what is Keith?
    Harry's trying to start a meme.
    What’s your thoughts on YouGov polling being carried out on Sturgeons successor ? Good planning by the SNP ?
    Tell me who's paying for it and I'll whip up a thought.

    What's your thoughts on a new SCon leader? Presumably you don't think the second hand car salesman should carry on?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851
    Nigelb said:

    The principle quality required will be patience. It’s going to be a long haul.

    Yes, very good point. I retract my last post about getting excited. This is not the time for that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    TGOHF666 said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    forensic analysis is for back room bores like Keith. Not for leaders.

    Keith forensically examined Corbyns manifesto and thought it was the basis to win an election - Id file his analysis in the bin.
    Who or what is Keith?
    Harry's trying to start a meme.
    What’s your thoughts on YouGov polling being carried out on Sturgeons successor ? Good planning by the SNP ?
    Unionists crapping themselves even before she goes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    edited January 2020
    If does get the job, Starmer better be bloody good at it. 'Cuz the Sisters are going to be looking for the tiniest of openings in which to insert their stilettos.

    Starmer is a bit crap though. He is Stevens, the guy in the red top who goes down to the planet surface with Kirk, never to return...

    Once elected, if there is a book on him not leading Labour into the next election, I'm on.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    TGOHF666 said:

    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    forensic analysis is for back room bores like Keith. Not for leaders.

    Keith forensically examined Corbyns manifesto and thought it was the basis to win an election - Id file his analysis in the bin.
    Who or what is Keith?
    Harry's trying to start a meme.
    What’s your thoughts on YouGov polling being carried out on Sturgeons successor ? Good planning by the SNP ?
    Tell me who's paying for it and I'll whip up a thought.

    What's your thoughts on a new SCon leader? Presumably you don't think the second hand car salesman should carry on?
    I would not trust any of them to put a lead on a dog.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited January 2020
    eek said:

    @TSE did you know your Northern Rail fare increase is subsidising German Train fare cuts...

    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1212664866001043457

    I don't use Northern, they are the peasant wagons of the railway system, my daily commute is on TPE.

    When Northern fail it buggers up the whole of the railway system in the desolate North. I mean when the Northern service from Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield gets cancelled they all pile on my train.

    They even let not first class ticket holders into first class, which is simply intolerable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT
    The main problem with Starmer (apart from him being incredibly boring) is his positioning on Brexit.

    Are Labour really going to be stupid enough to jump from telling people that Boris couldn't get a deal, that nothing could be changed, that we were inevitably doomed into the remainer pit of the EU will dictate all the terms of our trade deal, we remain inferior and subservient, this is all hopeless and we are all doomed yet again? Because if they do 2019 will not be the bottom of the cycle.

    Labour need to accept Brexit like they promised to do. This does not mean that they can't make the case, for example, for a CU, it just means that they need to have unequivocally accepted the principle rather than the process. I am far from persuaded that Starmer is that man. He still thinks he knows better.

    What positioning ?

    Boris has an unassailable majority for a full term, so it will all be about examining and critiquing whatever settlement he comes up with. That we are leaving is entirely outside the influence of any party of opposition.
    None of which parties ‘have’ to do anything Tories tell them. Or make any meaningless declarations of principle.
    Agreed.

    Labour don’t have to do anything, except wait.
    The 2040's could be their moment.....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674
    eek said:

    @TSE did you know your Northern Rail fare increase is subsidising German Train fare cuts...

    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1212664866001043457

    Rip off Britain will never go for it. In Vienna you can get ticket for all public transport for 365 Euro a year , 1 Euro or 90P a day. Can you imagine in UK , It would be 10,000 a year.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    edited January 2020

    eek said:

    @TSE did you know your Northern Rail fare increase is subsidising German Train fare cuts...

    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1212664866001043457

    I don't use Northern, they are the peasant wagons of the railway system, my daily commute is on TPE.

    When Northern fail it buggers up the whole of the railway system in the desolate North. I mean when the Northern service from Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield gets cancelled they all pile among my train.

    They even let not first class ticket holders into first class, which is simply intolerable.
    You mean you have a commute that is further than kitchen to very posh garden shed. INKSPE
  • Isaac Levido is a new one on me. Seems like the BJ party is just hoachin' with evil geniuses.

    https://twitter.com/williamnhutton/status/1212699972820451333?s=20
  • malcolmg said:

    I don't like relative poverty statistics as it means you can never make any progress, and also relative poverty tends to fall in a recession as median incomes drop, which is really a nonsense. I would split people into 4 categories:

    Poor - Not having enough to meet basic needs like food, heating and clothing
    Just about managing - Can meet basic needs but have to scrimp and save for higher needs like holidays. Would struggle with a financial emergency like major car repairs.
    Comfortable - Have enough to cover both basic and higher needs with a buffer in case of emergencies
    Rich - Have far more wealth than they need and many assets.

    One of the thing that bugs me is that assessments of wealth tend to only focus on income and not expenses. For example, many retired people have lower incomes but also lower expenses and so are comfortable, while relatively high earners in London and SE can still only be just about managing due to high cost of living.

    Have to say , they should get out of London , you can have a much better life on less money in other parts of the country and if you are lucky enough to be able to get the big money as well it is even better.
    London is like a hamster wheel.
    PS: your categories are perfect
    Thanks Malc. I absolutely agree about moving out of London and the South East. The problem is that it is hard to find private sector jobs as so many big corporations cluster in and around London. I would happily move back to the South West but there just aren't any jobs in my industry there.
  • Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    No-one gives a shit about detail and forensic analysis any more.

    What does he look like on a stuck zip line?

    And can Starmer do this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhxilSeFqMI

    Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    eek said:

    @TSE did you know your Northern Rail fare increase is subsidising German Train fare cuts...

    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1212664866001043457

    Not sure about Northern, but the Dutch tax payer has been subsidising Greater Anglia, not that you’ll hear about that.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    eek said:

    @TSE did you know your Northern Rail fare increase is subsidising German Train fare cuts...

    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1212664866001043457

    I don't use Northern, they are the peasant wagons of the railway system, my daily commute is on TPE.

    When Northern fail it buggers up the whole of the railway system in the desolate North. I mean when the Northern service from Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield gets cancelled they all pile on my train.

    They even let not first class ticket holders into first class, which is simply intolerable.
    Typical Tory Toff, "My Train" no idea of real life and deluded into thinking they actually own the country.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,969
    edited January 2020
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    @TSE did you know your Northern Rail fare increase is subsidising German Train fare cuts...

    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1212664866001043457

    I don't use Northern, they are the peasant wagons of the railway system, my daily commute is on TPE.

    When Northern fail it buggers up the whole of the railway system in the desolate North. I mean when the Northern service from Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield gets cancelled they all pile on my train.

    They even let not first class ticket holders into first class, which is simply intolerable.
    Typical Tory Toff, "My Train" no idea of real life and deluded into thinking they actually own the country.
    The Northern tickets are usually for Northern trains only, they aren't allowed to use TPE or EMR trains, the trains are so overcrowded that the revenue protection officers guards cannot go down the train to make them buy the correct ticket.

    So yes it is my train, because my season ticket allows me to use TPE trains.

    And in which universe am I am a toff? I'm the grandson of immigrants to this country.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    Isaac Levido is a new one on me. Seems like the BJ party is just hoachin' with evil geniuses.

    https://twitter.com/williamnhutton/status/1212699972820451333?s=20

    Not content with home grown nasties they are importing them as well.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    ydoethur said:

    My view is that Starmer would free up a lot of soft Tories to vote LibDem. That could be a very big deal.

    Spot on.

    Most of the analysis focuses on how Starmer would affect the Con/Lab battle, however, if he wins he will also affect the Con/LD battle, strongly in favour of the LDs. Getting rid of Corbyn is a boon to the Lib Dems.

    There are approximately 100 Con/Lab battleground seats.

    There are approximately 50 Con/LD battleground seats.

    By focussing solely on the 100 Con/Lab seats it is easy to assume that Labour cannot win in 2024. But take into consideration an LD boost and 2024 looks far from certain.

    Tories better pray that RLB wins.
    50? Really? Once you go beyond 25 seats (one of which is held by the SNP and two by Labour) almost all the Liberal Democrat ‘targets’ have five figure majorities.

    That’s hard work for a party with quite limited resources to overturn in one go. Admittedly, Labour not being seen as second cousins to the Four Horsemen might help somewhat.

    Labour, by contrast, have around 119 targets where the majority is less than 10,000, which would in theory be enough to give them a bare majority.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground
    Gordon Brown’s Labour had lots of five figure majorities. Things change.

    Davey is much better than Swinson. All he needs is some luck. Admittedly, some cash wouldn’t hurt either. We have no idea what the background will be to the 2024 GE. In a worst-case scenario we might be in the middle of a depression, or a war, or civil unrest. Or all three. Nobody knows.

    Incidentally, those 150 seats are based on a 600-seat parliament.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    I'd quite like some sensible policies and analysis...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    I don't like relative poverty statistics as it means you can never make any progress, and also relative poverty tends to fall in a recession as median incomes drop, which is really a nonsense. I would split people into 4 categories:

    Poor - Not having enough to meet basic needs like food, heating and clothing
    Just about managing - Can meet basic needs but have to scrimp and save for higher needs like holidays. Would struggle with a financial emergency like major car repairs.
    Comfortable - Have enough to cover both basic and higher needs with a buffer in case of emergencies
    Rich - Have far more wealth than they need and many assets.

    One of the thing that bugs me is that assessments of wealth tend to only focus on income and not expenses. For example, many retired people have lower incomes but also lower expenses and so are comfortable, while relatively high earners in London and SE can still only be just about managing due to high cost of living.

    Have to say , they should get out of London , you can have a much better life on less money in other parts of the country and if you are lucky enough to be able to get the big money as well it is even better.
    London is like a hamster wheel.
    PS: your categories are perfect
    Thanks Malc. I absolutely agree about moving out of London and the South East. The problem is that it is hard to find private sector jobs as so many big corporations cluster in and around London. I would happily move back to the South West but there just aren't any jobs in my industry there.
    Yes, I was very lucky and moved back to Scotland after many travels and good spell in south east England, have worked from home for years now and makes a great difference, I can have a lovely house , can buy what I want when I want etc, no overcrowding etc , very lucky indeed.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    No-one gives a shit about detail and forensic analysis any more.

    What does he look like on a stuck zip line?

    And can Starmer do this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhxilSeFqMI

    Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
    That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.

    But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.

    I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,674

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    @TSE did you know your Northern Rail fare increase is subsidising German Train fare cuts...

    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1212664866001043457

    I don't use Northern, they are the peasant wagons of the railway system, my daily commute is on TPE.

    When Northern fail it buggers up the whole of the railway system in the desolate North. I mean when the Northern service from Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield gets cancelled they all pile on my train.

    They even let not first class ticket holders into first class, which is simply intolerable.
    Typical Tory Toff, "My Train" no idea of real life and deluded into thinking they actually own the country.
    The Northern tickets are usually for Northern trains only, they aren't allowed to use TPE or EMR trains, the trains are so overcrowded that the revenue protection officers guards cannot go down the train to make them buy the correct ticket.

    So yes it is my train, because my season ticket allows me to use TPE trains.

    And in which universe am I am a toff? I'm the grandson of immigrants to this country.
    The train system in this country is so f***ed up it is unbelievable.
    Being the grandson of immigrants does not mean you cannot be a toff or act like one , look at the Tory party , plenty home grown as well as immigrants aspire to be a Toff and rule over the plebs.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.

    Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.

    And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?

    Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,311

    I don't like relative poverty statistics as it means you can never make any progress, and also relative poverty tends to fall in a recession as median incomes drop, which is really a nonsense. I would split people into 4 categories:

    Poor - Not having enough to meet basic needs like food, heating and clothing
    Just about managing - Can meet basic needs but have to scrimp and save for higher needs like holidays. Would struggle with a financial emergency like major car repairs.
    Comfortable - Have enough to cover both basic and higher needs with a buffer in case of emergencies
    Rich - Have far more wealth than they need and many assets.

    One of the thing that bugs me is that assessments of wealth tend to only focus on income and not expenses. For example, many retired people have lower incomes but also lower expenses and so are comfortable, while relatively high earners in London and SE can still only be just about managing due to high cost of living.

    I like these distinctions. I think one of the main issues with the retired is lack of opportunity to earn more, and obviously any buffer being eroded by care costs.

    Personally I would like to see all public sector salaries and benefits to be regionally indexed. I am sure that data is already collected on regional cost of living. If this was then profiled by recipient I.e the cost of living for a teacher who may not be eligible for any subsidised housing that would be much fairer. The move would have to be cost neutral - a mistake with UC, so that whilst some will lose out others should gain.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731

    In this country someone with Kier Starmer’s background does not achieve what he has achieved without being very smart, very tough and very single-minded. Nothing has ever been put on a plate for him. That matters.

    Is Starmer the perfect candidate? Not at all. He is undoubtedly compromised by remaining in the shadow cabinet while Labour became institutionally anti-Semitic. That will need a lot of explaining and a lot of repentance. But the raw politics is that if he had walked out he would never have been able to mount a leadership bid as he’d be tainted by disloyalty.

    There is also a danger Starmer could be too lawyerly - risk adverse, unable to connect, dour. He is not a great public speaker. But Labour’s greatest leader was not exactly a showman. Attlee, though, knew his party and how to manage it into power so that it could transform lives.

    I am not saying Starmer is a new Attlee, but a methodical unifier who can hit the net when presented with open goals, and who doesn’t frighten great swathes of the electorate, is going to be a major upgrade on what Labour has been offering for the last 10 years.

    McCluskey and the current leadership team, as well as Momentum, will do all they can to prevent him winning. That may well include supporting Angela Rayner.

    Who will the ‘Oh Jeremy Corbyn’ crowd from 2017 vote for in the next GE, if it’s Boris vs Starmer? Green? They’re ripe for a invasion
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    If does get the job, Starmer better be bloody good at it. 'Cuz the Sisters are going to be looking for the tiniest of openings in which to insert their stilettos.

    Perhaps he wouldn't mind that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400
    TGOHF666 said:
    They are playing a waiting game anyway. Not getting one is not necessarily a disaster.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.

    Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.

    And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?

    Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
    I don’t think anyone except possibly the Tories are going to make decisions before April.

    After that, Events may come into play.
  • malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    @TSE did you know your Northern Rail fare increase is subsidising German Train fare cuts...

    https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1212664866001043457

    I don't use Northern, they are the peasant wagons of the railway system, my daily commute is on TPE.

    When Northern fail it buggers up the whole of the railway system in the desolate North. I mean when the Northern service from Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield gets cancelled they all pile on my train.

    They even let not first class ticket holders into first class, which is simply intolerable.
    Typical Tory Toff, "My Train" no idea of real life and deluded into thinking they actually own the country.
    The Northern tickets are usually for Northern trains only, they aren't allowed to use TPE or EMR trains, the trains are so overcrowded that the revenue protection officers guards cannot go down the train to make them buy the correct ticket.

    So yes it is my train, because my season ticket allows me to use TPE trains.

    And in which universe am I am a toff? I'm the grandson of immigrants to this country.
    The train system in this country is so f***ed up it is unbelievable.
    Being the grandson of immigrants does not mean you cannot be a toff or act like one , look at the Tory party , plenty home grown as well as immigrants aspire to be a Toff and rule over the plebs.
    Trains meet Toffs head-on:

    https://www.leamingtoncourier.co.uk/news/warwickshire-hunt-apologises-after-hounds-ran-across-railway-between-leamington-and-banbury-1353477
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited January 2020
    egg said:

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    No-one gives a shit about detail and forensic analysis any more.

    What does he look like on a stuck zip line?

    And can Starmer do this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhxilSeFqMI

    Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
    That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.

    But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.

    I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
    Why Lammy, Egg? What evidence are you basing this on? Why are you so sure that Starmer will not become next LP leader?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,400

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    No-one gives a shit about detail and forensic analysis any more.

    What does he look like on a stuck zip line?

    And can Starmer do this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhxilSeFqMI

    Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
    He might need to do more than just wait, but leading in his own way rather trying to best Boris at his own game is ckearly right.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    egg said:

    Sir Keir Starmer does detail and forensic analysis, Boris Johnson does not.

    It’ll be fun when Boris Johnson tries to bluster in the Commons.

    No-one gives a shit about detail and forensic analysis any more.

    What does he look like on a stuck zip line?

    And can Starmer do this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhxilSeFqMI

    Quite right. Keir the Seer can't beat Boris at the cranky-caper stuff. That would be like asking Sir Thomas More to compete with Dicky Pearce. No, Keir just needs to stay patient and cool. Soon enough the experts will reclaim the earth and Keir must position himself as their talisman.
    That’s the most impressive thing Boris has ever done in my opinion. Respect.

    But if you are banking on Kier, Um, Stammer to save the Earth, forget it. THERE IS NO WAY HE IS BECOMING LABOUR LEADER.

    I’ll tell you who the next Labour leader is right now, get on whilst odds long. David lammy
    I actually think Lammy is good value, and would also probably do a better job than Drear Starmer. But his track record (finishing fourth in the 2015 London Mayoral selection behind Diane Abbott) is not exactly encouraging. I'm not sure he has much to say to Labour members outside London, either.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    On topic, I think it is way too premature to write things like “it is hard to see [Starmer] being beaten.” There is not yet a vacancy, few candidates have declared, and there are all sorts of factors in play (not least the gender issue) that could change things.

    I agree he has to be the favourite now but let’s not go overboard.
  • Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.

    Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.

    And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?

    Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
    I might be wrong but I think I remember Leonard saying he will carry on at least until the next Holyrood election. Sticking limpet like to post after electoral disasters seems to be his one consistent characteristic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    kinabalu said:

    If does get the job, Starmer better be bloody good at it. 'Cuz the Sisters are going to be looking for the tiniest of openings in which to insert their stilettos.

    Perhaps he wouldn't mind that.
    *Raises eyebrows*
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Yougov got the last Labour and Tory leadership race figures pretty spot on so Starmer looks like favourite
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.

    Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.

    And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?

    Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
    Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    What does Starmer actually stand for - outside of his confused position on Brexit?

    No-one knows.

    He has no policy background that anyone can discern.

    People are looking at his pre-MP career and then projecting from there. And also being named Kier gives some people the impression that he is some sort of heir to Hardie.

    He is pretty much a personality free zone. There is no spark of life, no passion. Yes, he can appear competent and confident (in a technocrat sort of way) - but he is in no way inspirational.

    Perhaps Labour needs a period of dull leadership.

    But Starmer has to explain his role in propping up Corbyn. He has to explain why he stood by and let the anti-Semitism rot Labour from within. He might not be a fellow traveller, but he made it possible for Corbyn and his clique to continue in power.

    He isn't the solution to the decline in Labour fortunes. He would be a less awful choice than RLB - but he isn't the knight some people seem to be thinking he is.

    Two men are running away from an angry bear. The bear is gaining. Suddenly, one of the men stops and puts on running shoes.

    ‘Are you crazy?’ Shouts the other man with the little breath he has left. ‘They won’t help you outrun the bear!’

    ‘I’m not trying to outrun the bear,’ replies his friend as he overtakes him. ‘All I have to do is outrun you.’

    Your criticisms would be valid if there was a ‘knight’ in shining armour to rescue Labour. There isn’t. The sad truth is Labour has for some years looked utterly bereft of leadership, ideas and imagination. That’s how a nutter like Corbyn won in the first place. He was at least different and the other candidates were pretty underwhelming.

    So Starmer is probably the right man to do the Michael Howard role for a couple of years, and scrabble about to see if their is anything there to work with.

    And if not, better for Labour they are led by him than Ian Lavery.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    On topic, I think it is way too premature to write things like “it is hard to see [Starmer] being beaten.” There is not yet a vacancy, few candidates have declared, and there are all sorts of factors in play (not least the gender issue) that could change things.

    I agree he has to be the favourite now but let’s not go overboard.

    Factor #1: Are we all absolutely certain Starmer even wants the job, and is committed to standing?

    Factor #2: If so, is he certain to get on the ballot? He certainly has enough MPs; I would guess if he's topping the polling he could round up enough CLPs as well, but I don't know if that's guaranteed.

    Factor #3: Who is his anointed deputy, or does he not need one (if this is purely an RLB/Rayner thing)?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,232

    A New Year, a return to old skool 'we hold all the cards' bollox.

    'A united Britain will have the upper hand over a divided and declining European Union'

    https://tinyurl.com/tl9afec

    'For the first time in living memory, defending their new Midlands and Northern seats, the Tories have a powerful electoral imperative to govern as “One Nation Conservatives”.'

    Anyone care to speculate on the geographical boundaries of this 'One Nation'?

    The bits of England the author likes and the bits of Wales that the author likes. It specifically does not include Scotland and Northern Ireland. As I have said to the point of tedium, many people in the south of England find it difficult to understand that Scotland and Northern Ireland are part of the United Kingdom and will actively refuse to learn.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    TGOHF666 said:
    So relatively speaking the LDs are now the party of posh ABs, the Tories the party of skilled working class C2s and Labour still the party of poor DEs.

    Leaving lower middle class C1s as the key swing voters
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    HYUFD said:

    Has anyone seen a market on Leonard’s successor? They can’t possibly be daft enough to go into the Scottish GE with that numptie as their candidate for FM.

    Will the Tories go for Carlaw? Very brave. Brave in the YM meaning.

    And will the cowed SLDs stick with Angry Wullie?

    Holyrood 21 is approaching fast. If they want a chance of preventing yet another pro-independence majority then they’ll need three new, competent leaders. Big task. Little time.
    Even if the SNP got the 45% they got at the general election at Holyrood 2021 that would be down on the 46.5% they got at the Holyrood 2016 elections
    If SNP and Greens are just short of a majority in 2021 - which seems possible - that leaves an exquisite instrument of torture for Scottish Labour.

    Do they support the SNP and send their remaining Unionist voters away in a stampede?

    Or do they enter Coalition with the Tories and say a final goodbye to all their Scottish seats?
This discussion has been closed.