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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Henry G Manson resurfaces after 4 years and says Lisa Nandy is

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197

    Well, how would you describe his policy?

    America invested a huge amount of blood and treasure to put Iraq in its orbit. It has sent a message in stark terms that Iran can forget about prising it away......
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627
    edited January 3
    ydoethur said:


    What's especially puzzling however is that this comes so soon after Trump and Putin's lovein. Soleimani was one of Putin's friends in the regime, the man tipped as Putin's choice for next President of Iran and a key figure in Putin's Syria strategy.

    So either Putin will be ready to explode or - just possibly - we are seeing Trump used, wittingly or otherwise, as part of a power struggle. With Putin I suppose you never quite know.
    Have you read his book “Proof of Conspiracy”?

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    Morning all. Iran, you say? Phew, thankfully I’m, err, about a hundred miles from Iran :open_mouth:
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,383
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    If you play office politics, you will be discovered and immediately binned.


    Is the quote of a man who is an idiot. The point of office politics is you don't detect it. It is done in secret.

    This is the kind of empty platitude that some says to look tough and on the ball but there is absolutely zero to back it up.

    It's also fundamentally bullshit. Almost everyone I know who's successfully climbed the greasy poll, whether at Goldman or anywhere else, has done it by assiduously courting favour with the right people.

    That's office politics.
    Yup, get on the right side of the right people, that's always the game plan at any company. Also, learn when and how to say no to senior management. Those are my two tips for getting ahead in life.
    If asked to join an obviously doomed project, you have to say no, no matter how much the CEO begs you.

    That’s not how it works in my experience. There are always people who will do what is asked of them, so sometimes its best to register your scepticism then go through to the end to mitigate the damage and then be around to ensure the right lessons are learned. Marketing is one area where this can actually be quite a valuable exercise.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    Boris would do well to stay out of any US escalation with Iran. A military intervention is the last thing he needs at this stage in his premiership.

    Although will the lure of a Trump trade deal be a siren call?

    I trust he extends to our noble American allies every assistance.
    And what should he give to Trump?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473
    speedy2 said:

    Lots of isolated decisions without strategy.

    Yes. And with the motive usually petty and personal. Essentially we have a maladjusted 15 year old holding the World's highest elected office. Hopefully just 12 more months of this bizarre and precarious state of affairs to get through but one rather wishes it were shorter.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,383
    If Trump has done this without Putin’s approval things could get very tricky for him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    If Trump has done this without Putin’s approval things could get very tricky for him.

    I'm wondering what he's told the Israelis as well. This is going to lead to an upsurge in violence from Hamas and if they didn't have advanced warning they're not going to be happy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429

    Well, how would you describe his policy?

    America invested a huge amount of blood and treasure to put Iraq in its orbit. It has sent a message in stark terms that Iran can forget about prising it away......
    And yet it is entirely possible that Iraq will ask US troops to leave as a result.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    edited January 3
    ydoethur said:

    If Trump has done this without Putin’s approval things could get very tricky for him.

    I'm wondering what he's told the Israelis as well. This is going to lead to an upsurge in violence from Hamas and if they didn't have advanced warning they're not going to be happy.
    News reports suggest (though who knows if they’re accurate) that allies were not consulted.

    So Putin wasn’t told then...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    If you play office politics, you will be discovered and immediately binned.


    Is the quote of a man who is an idiot. The point of office politics is you don't detect it. It is done in secret.

    This is the kind of empty platitude that some says to look tough and on the ball but there is absolutely zero to back it up.

    It's also fundamentally bullshit. Almost everyone I know who's successfully climbed the greasy poll, whether at Goldman or anywhere else, has done it by assiduously courting favour with the right people.

    That's office politics.
    Yup, get on the right side of the right people, that's always the game plan at any company. Also, learn when and how to say no to senior management. Those are my two tips for getting ahead in life.
    If asked to join an obviously doomed project, you have to say no, no matter how much the CEO begs you.

    That’s not how it works in my experience. There are always people who will do what is asked of them, so sometimes its best to register your scepticism then go through to the end to mitigate the damage and then be around to ensure the right lessons are learned. Marketing is one area where this can actually be quite a valuable exercise.

    With more technical projects, it’s usually poison to have been involved with them, as failure usually equates with disruption and loss of revenue / reputation to the company. Think TSB systems upgrade, lots of people inside would have seen it coming and not wanted anything to do with the project.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    Worrying news to wake up to, Strange to miss the relative peace of 2019 already.

    It is going to be fascinating to see how Boris reacts.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,383
    ydoethur said:

    If Trump has done this without Putin’s approval things could get very tricky for him.

    I'm wondering what he's told the Israelis as well. This is going to lead to an upsurge in violence from Hamas and if they didn't have advanced warning they're not going to be happy.

    I imagine Netanyahu will be fine with it given the forthcoming election and the political deadlock in Israel. It may make a lot of voters think twice about a change of government.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473

    What authority does Cummings have to run recruitment for the Civil Service?

    If I was the HR director I would be on the war path tonight.

    I wonder if in Cummings we are seeing an ego running out of control. The signs are certainly there. Guy obviously thinks he's the bees knees. One must hope that "Boris" does not let him run riot.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627
    ydoethur said:

    Boris would do well to stay out of any US escalation with Iran. A military intervention is the last thing he needs at this stage in his premiership.

    Although will the lure of a Trump trade deal be a siren call?

    I trust he extends to our noble American allies every assistance.
    And what should he give to Trump?
    You delete “short of actual help”.....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,383
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    If you play office politics, you will be discovered and immediately binned.


    Is the quote of a man who is an idiot. The point of office politics is you don't detect it. It is done in secret.

    This is the kind of empty platitude that some says to look tough and on the ball but there is absolutely zero to back it up.

    It's also fundamentally bullshit. Almost everyone I know who's successfully climbed the greasy poll, whether at Goldman or anywhere else, has done it by assiduously courting favour with the right people.

    That's office politics.
    Yup, get on the right side of the right people, that's always the game plan at any company. Also, learn when and how to say no to senior management. Those are my two tips for getting ahead in life.
    If asked to join an obviously doomed project, you have to say no, no matter how much the CEO begs you.

    That’s not how it works in my experience. There are always people who will do what is asked of them, so sometimes its best to register your scepticism then go through to the end to mitigate the damage and then be around to ensure the right lessons are learned. Marketing is one area where this can actually be quite a valuable exercise.

    With more technical projects, it’s usually poison to have been involved with them, as failure usually equates with disruption and loss of revenue / reputation to the company. Think TSB systems upgrade, lots of people inside would have seen it coming and not wanted anything to do with the project.

    Thankfully, I have never been involved in an IT project or similar - and never will be. I just get to moan about them!!

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    kinabalu said:

    speedy2 said:

    Lots of isolated decisions without strategy.

    Yes. And with the motive usually petty and personal. Essentially we have a maladjusted 15 year old holding the World's highest elected office. Hopefully just 12 more months of this bizarre and precarious state of affairs to get through but one rather wishes it were shorter.
    I think that’s rather unfair. I work with many maladjusted 15 year olds and none of them are as bad as Trump.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Nigelb said:

    Well, how would you describe his policy?

    America invested a huge amount of blood and treasure to put Iraq in its orbit. It has sent a message in stark terms that Iran can forget about prising it away......
    And yet it is entirely possible that Iraq will ask US troops to leave as a result.
    There aren’t that many of them left and most of them have spent the last week in hiding.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    ydoethur said:

    Boris would do well to stay out of any US escalation with Iran. A military intervention is the last thing he needs at this stage in his premiership.

    Although will the lure of a Trump trade deal be a siren call?

    I trust he extends to our noble American allies every assistance.
    And what should he give to Trump?
    You delete “short of actual help”.....
    Well, yes. I was asking if we should give every assistance short of actual help to our ‘noble American allies,’ what should we give Trump? I thought quoting the whole thing would confuse matters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    edited January 3
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well, how would you describe his policy?

    America invested a huge amount of blood and treasure to put Iraq in its orbit. It has sent a message in stark terms that Iran can forget about prising it away......
    And yet it is entirely possible that Iraq will ask US troops to leave as a result.
    There aren’t that many of them left and most of them have spent the last week in hiding.
    Around 5000, I think.

    And indeed, this is perhaps retaliation for recent attacks, rather than the centrepiece of any particular strategy.

    I won’t mourn the evil fucker, but the consequences of this are unpredictable.

    This is a very good profile (and notes an opportunity for rapprochement under Bush thrown away):
    https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2013/09/30/the-shadow-commander
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,317
    edited January 3
    An extremely unwelcome event for Johnson, but more importantly a highly unwelcome event for that entire region.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well, how would you describe his policy?

    America invested a huge amount of blood and treasure to put Iraq in its orbit. It has sent a message in stark terms that Iran can forget about prising it away......
    And yet it is entirely possible that Iraq will ask US troops to leave as a result.
    There aren’t that many of them left and most of them have spent the last week in hiding.
    Around 5000, I think.
    Of which 3,000 are new arrivals to beef up security following these protests.

    Remind me again about the quagmire of the Middle East Trump said he was getting out of?
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 971
    What was this Iranian doing in Iraq ?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    kinabalu said:

    What authority does Cummings have to run recruitment for the Civil Service?

    If I was the HR director I would be on the war path tonight.

    I wonder if in Cummings we are seeing an ego running out of control. The signs are certainly there. Guy obviously thinks he's the bees knees. One must hope that "Boris" does not let him run riot.
    Is Johnson still in his love nest? Sounds like he is needed back home.

    I wonder who Cummings is backing in World War 3.

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,317
    edited January 3
    TGOHF666 said:

    What was this Iranian doing in Iraq ?

    Running proxies there as the Iranians have been doing for 15 years.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    edited January 3
    Foxy said:

    kinabalu said:

    What authority does Cummings have to run recruitment for the Civil Service?

    If I was the HR director I would be on the war path tonight.

    I wonder if in Cummings we are seeing an ego running out of control. The signs are certainly there. Guy obviously thinks he's the bees knees. One must hope that "Boris" does not let him run riot.
    Is Johnson still in his love nest? Sounds like he is needed back home.

    I wonder who Cummings is backing in World War 3.

    He won’t Russia to judgement.

    Edit - serious question - when Johnson is abroad, who is in charge? Is it Raab or Gove?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,383
    Why has Trump done this now? Everything points to the current impeachment process. That an evil murderer has been taken out is no cause for distress, but the almost certainty that Trump has not bothered to think through the consequences of this action is a huge cause for concern. Johnson needs to be very, very careful in his reaction. Here’s hoping.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris would do well to stay out of any US escalation with Iran. A military intervention is the last thing he needs at this stage in his premiership.

    Although will the lure of a Trump trade deal be a siren call?

    I trust he extends to our noble American allies every assistance.
    And what should he give to Trump?
    You delete “short of actual help”.....
    Well, yes. I was asking if we should give every assistance short of actual help to our ‘noble American allies,’ what should we give Trump? I thought quoting the whole thing would confuse matters.
    Lend him some drones, or some intelligence output from the MI6 / SAS teams who are probably there anyway - but definitely stop short of committing troops or planes.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris would do well to stay out of any US escalation with Iran. A military intervention is the last thing he needs at this stage in his premiership.

    Although will the lure of a Trump trade deal be a siren call?

    I trust he extends to our noble American allies every assistance.
    And what should he give to Trump?
    You delete “short of actual help”.....
    Well, yes. I was asking if we should give every assistance short of actual help to our ‘noble American allies,’ what should we give Trump? I thought quoting the whole thing would confuse matters.

    Of course Boris needs to keep us out of this. We may be about to find out if Boris owes Trump any favours and precisely how dependent on the USA the govt expects us to be in a post Brexit world.

    An Iran US conflict would not be an ideal time to Brexit.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429

    An extremely unwelcome event for Johnson, but more importantly a highly unwelcome event for that entire region.

    Well significant parts of it are celebrating....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    Why has Trump done this now? Everything points to the current impeachment process. That an evil murderer has been taken out is no cause for distress, but the almost certainty that Trump has not bothered to think through the consequences of this action is a huge cause for concern. Johnson needs to be very, very careful in his reaction. Here’s hoping.

    As TSE would almost say:

    Man lifts telephone in Ukraine, people die in Baghdad.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473
    ydoethur said:

    I think that’s rather unfair. I work with many maladjusted 15 year olds and none of them are as bad as Trump.

    I can well believe that. The notion I cling to is that if it came to something which truly threatens WW3 there are people in Washington who would "manage" him out of it. Please nobody disabuse me of this. It's kinder to leave me with it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Boris would do well to stay out of any US escalation with Iran. A military intervention is the last thing he needs at this stage in his premiership.

    Although will the lure of a Trump trade deal be a siren call?

    I trust he extends to our noble American allies every assistance.
    And what should he give to Trump?
    You delete “short of actual help”.....
    Well, yes. I was asking if we should give every assistance short of actual help to our ‘noble American allies,’ what should we give Trump? I thought quoting the whole thing would confuse matters.
    Lend him some drones, or some intelligence output from the MI6 / SAS teams who are probably there anyway - but definitely stop short of committing troops or planes.
    The Implication was he was not a noble American ally...

    It’s also rather disrespectful to refer to our intelligence officers as drones, even if some of them appear to be a bit dim.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,553

    Boris would do well to stay out of any US escalation with Iran. A military intervention is the last thing he needs at this stage in his premiership.

    RAAF A330MRTT provided refuelling for the BARCAP on last night's jolly. UK not invited thus far.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    edited January 3

    An extremely unwelcome event for Johnson, but more importantly a highly unwelcome event for that entire region.

    One does worry intensely about the Iranian response - when someone this important is taken out the fiery words may for once come close to the actual reaction. I would would not want to be American in the region.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    kinabalu said:

    ydoethur said:

    I think that’s rather unfair. I work with many maladjusted 15 year olds and none of them are as bad as Trump.

    I can well believe that. The notion I cling to is that if it came to something which truly threatens WW3 there are people in Washington who would "manage" him out of it. Please nobody disabuse me of this. It's kinder to leave me with it.
    The scenario in Threads was a US-Russian conflict escalating in Iran.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 971
    Of course free of any election nonsense - Jezza will be able to mourn this chap in public.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    TGOHF666 said:

    What was this Iranian doing in Iraq ?

    Making an official visit. Several Iraqis were killed too.

  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:

    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Nigelb said:

    An extremely unwelcome event for Johnson, but more importantly a highly unwelcome event for that entire region.

    Well significant parts of it are celebrating....
    They celebrated on the fall of Baghdad in 2003 as well.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    TGOHF666 said:

    Of course free of any election nonsense - Jezza will be able to mourn this chap in public.

    The question is what will Boris do free of an election.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    Iraq, as for a long long long long time, has no good options to pick from.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    So what can Iran do?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627
    Foxy said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    What was this Iranian doing in Iraq ?

    Making an official visit. Several Iraqis were killed too.

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    What was this Iranian doing in Iraq ?

    Making an official visit. Several Iraqis were killed too.
    We’re they government officials or militia officials? All reports I’ve read said the latter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Jonathan said:

    So what can Iran do?

    It can close the Strait of Homruz, for starters.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,383
    kle4 said:

    An extremely unwelcome event for Johnson, but more importantly a highly unwelcome event for that entire region.

    One does worry intensely about the Iranian response - when someone this important is taken out the fiery words may for once come close to the actual reaction. I would would not want to be American in the region.

    I suspect that many of the first victims of the response will not be Americans.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    What was this Iranian doing in Iraq ?

    Making an official visit. Several Iraqis were killed too.

    Foxy said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    What was this Iranian doing in Iraq ?

    Making an official visit. Several Iraqis were killed too.
    We’re they government officials or militia officials? All reports I’ve read said the latter.
    In Iraq, that is something of a distinction without a difference.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 971
    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Of course free of any election nonsense - Jezza will be able to mourn this chap in public.

    The question is what will Boris do free of an election.
    I’ll go out on a limb and suggest that Boris will not mourn the passing of this chap.

    Unlike Jezza.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 84
    On topic, I have a small bet on Nandy as I think there is an outside chance she comes through. However, I don't think her personality that appealing - someone on here summed it up well, saying she came across as a bit of a wet lettuce.

    I wonder if the value bet at the moment might be Rayner (disclosure: I have bought some on Betfair at 60-70). The left's overwhelming aim is to keep control of the Labour party, not specifically to back a candidate. There seems to be a growing feeling RLB is not up to the task and that Starmer might come through. If that was the case, the left may decide it would be best to ditch RLB and go with Rayner who would probably stand a better chance in a contest.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    Why has Trump done this now? Everything points to the current impeachment process. That an evil murderer has been taken out is no cause for distress, but the almost certainty that Trump has not bothered to think through the consequences of this action is a huge cause for concern. Johnson needs to be very, very careful in his reaction. Here’s hoping.

    I guess this thing has been prepared for weeks.

    The protests in Iran and Baghdad and the increasing american troop deployments provide clues that this was planned long ago, possibly since Al-Baghdadi was killed.

    I don't think it's the impeachment since Trump polling wise looked good and the Senate was solid.

    Most likely it was planned by some mid level staffer months ago and then Trump signed the order without reading it as usual.
    Notice how there was no responce from any White House official, only from the Pentagon hours later.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    TGOHF666 said:

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Of course free of any election nonsense - Jezza will be able to mourn this chap in public.

    The question is what will Boris do free of an election.
    I’ll go out on a limb and suggest that Boris will not mourn the passing of this chap.

    Unlike Jezza.
    Actual actions will matter a lot more than personal feelings about the event, and only one of them will face any options in the matter - Corbyn is an irrelevance.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 2,200

    An extremely unwelcome event for Johnson, but more importantly a highly unwelcome event for that entire region.

    I think you're not entirely right there. The event itself is likely to be welcomed in much of the region; it's some of the immediate repercussions that will be unwelcome. Time will tell if it's a bad move in the long term.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,016
    MrEd said:

    On topic, I have a small bet on Nandy as I think there is an outside chance she comes through. However, I don't think her personality that appealing - someone on here summed it up well, saying she came across as a bit of a wet lettuce.

    I wonder if the value bet at the moment might be Rayner (disclosure: I have bought some on Betfair at 60-70). The left's overwhelming aim is to keep control of the Labour party, not specifically to back a candidate. There seems to be a growing feeling RLB is not up to the task and that Starmer might come through. If that was the case, the left may decide it would be best to ditch RLB and go with Rayner who would probably stand a better chance in a contest.

    I agree with you. The question is whether or not Rayner can be convinced to stand.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    edited January 3
    speedy2 said:

    Why has Trump done this now? Everything points to the current impeachment process. That an evil murderer has been taken out is no cause for distress, but the almost certainty that Trump has not bothered to think through the consequences of this action is a huge cause for concern. Johnson needs to be very, very careful in his reaction. Here’s hoping.

    I guess this thing has been prepared for weeks.

    The protests in Iran and Baghdad and the increasing american troop deployments provide clues that this was planned long ago, possibly since Al-Baghdadi was killed.

    I don't think it's the impeachment since Trump polling wise looked good and the Senate was solid.

    Most likely it was planned by some mid level staffer months ago and then Trump signed the order without reading it as usual.
    Notice how there was no responce from any White House official, only from the Pentagon hours later.
    The mind conjures images of someone speaking to someone else loudly enough to be overheard by Trump going 'of course wed like to take him down, but only a super great genius would have the balls to do it' and Trump going 'that's me! Let's do it! Take out who?'
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 971
    kle4 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    Of course free of any election nonsense - Jezza will be able to mourn this chap in public.

    The question is what will Boris do free of an election.
    I’ll go out on a limb and suggest that Boris will not mourn the passing of this chap.

    Unlike Jezza.
    - Corbyn is an irrelevance.
    And Labour are stuck with him for another 3-4 months.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited January 3

    An extremely unwelcome event for Johnson, but more importantly a highly unwelcome event for that entire region.

    Boris has just won re election by a landslide and is not up for re election for at least 4 years, it has no effect on Boris at all and whether the assassination was advisable or not Iran is hardly a UK ally
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    edited January 3
    Endillion said:

    An extremely unwelcome event for Johnson, but more importantly a highly unwelcome event for that entire region.

    I think you're not entirely right there. The event itself is likely to be welcomed in much of the region; it's some of the immediate repercussions that will be unwelcome. Time will tell if it's a bad move in the long term.
    Thats likely true, and it's a question of how much worse it will get in the short term before (hopefully) its gets better. But optimism does not abound in the region though so gloominess that it will prove a bad move is understandable..
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,383
    ‪Today is a day to be thankful that Jeremy Corbyn is not in Downing Street. It is also a day to be very concerned that Boris Johnson is. Spare a thought, too, for Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe and her family. They must be sick with worry.‬
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,383
    HYUFD said:

    An extremely unwelcome event for Johnson, but more importantly a highly unwelcome event for that entire region.

    Boris has just won re election by a landslide and is not up for re election for at least 4 years, it has no effect on Boris at all and advisable or not Iran is hardly a UK ally

    I hope to God that is not the prism through which these events are being viewed in Downing Street.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    edited January 3
    Given the mans role surely Iran wont just respond by escalating through proxies?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,911
    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Observer, whilst that's possible there is another potential explanation. Benghazi questions over Clinton et al during the last election loomed large, and Trump might be trying to head that off by reacting to the storming of the embassy thus.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
    These puns are beginning to Hanoi me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    HYUFD said:

    An extremely unwelcome event for Johnson, but more importantly a highly unwelcome event for that entire region.

    Boris has just won re election by a landslide and is not up for re election for at least 4 years, it has no effect on Boris at all and whether the assassination was advisable or not Iran is hardly a UK ally
    I'd think global instability has an effect on the UK PM.
  • I’m sorry we need a war happen, anything to stop us talking about Brexit.

    A massive cavalry charge at Qom, wailing Ayatollahs in Mashhad, a large tank battle in Tehran, Hamas going apeshit, the Straits of Hormuz closed.

    Plus a war in the Middle East will be good for the environment as oil supplies are reduced and we move to electric cars as a result.

    I’m forming The Start The War Coalition.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473

    Why has Trump done this now? Everything points to the current impeachment process. That an evil murderer has been taken out is no cause for distress, but the almost certainty that Trump has not bothered to think through the consequences of this action is a huge cause for concern. Johnson needs to be very, very careful in his reaction. Here’s hoping.

    Yes, for the motive look for something ridiculous like that rather than anything to do with geopolitical calculus. Likewise if we want to stop him escalating further we must incorporate this weird but wonderful insight. We need to adopt some Dominic Cummings "off the trolley" thinking. What I would suggest is that Barack Obama is persuaded to make a big speech praising Trump for "taking no shit" from the Iranians and recommending the bombing of Tehran. That should do the trick.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    kle4 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Why has Trump done this now? Everything points to the current impeachment process. That an evil murderer has been taken out is no cause for distress, but the almost certainty that Trump has not bothered to think through the consequences of this action is a huge cause for concern. Johnson needs to be very, very careful in his reaction. Here’s hoping.

    I guess this thing has been prepared for weeks.

    The protests in Iran and Baghdad and the increasing american troop deployments provide clues that this was planned long ago, possibly since Al-Baghdadi was killed.

    I don't think it's the impeachment since Trump polling wise looked good and the Senate was solid.

    Most likely it was planned by some mid level staffer months ago and then Trump signed the order without reading it as usual.
    Notice how there was no responce from any White House official, only from the Pentagon hours later.
    The mind conjures images of someone speaking to someone else loudly enough to be overheard by Trump going 'of course wed like to take him down, but only a super great genius would have the balls to do it' and Trump going 'that's me! Let's do it! Take out who?'
    Mesa called President Trump. Mesa your humble servant...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    HYUFD said:

    An extremely unwelcome event for Johnson, but more importantly a highly unwelcome event for that entire region.

    Boris has just won re election by a landslide and is not up for re election for at least 4 years, it has no effect on Boris at all and whether the assassination was advisable or not Iran is hardly a UK ally
    Utterly bizarre post.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,317
    edited January 3
    Endillion said:

    An extremely unwelcome event for Johnson, but more importantly a highly unwelcome event for that entire region.

    I think you're not entirely right there. The event itself is likely to be welcomed in much of the region; it's some of the immediate repercussions that will be unwelcome. Time will tell if it's a bad move in the long term.
    However, what I was meaning there was that the consequences will be logically unwelcome.

    The fact that this kind of escalation may be emotionally welcome in several countries of the region is a large part of a problem, I think.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    Good morning, everyone.

    Mr. Observer, whilst that's possible there is another potential explanation. Benghazi questions over Clinton et al during the last election loomed large, and Trump might be trying to head that off by reacting to the storming of the embassy thus.

    If so, that’s in its own way more worrying. Planning and assessing such a drastic step should take months. It’s not something you do in five minutes in response to a few drink sodden hotheads throwing stones.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    HYUFD said:
    Karl Rove was on Fox News last night, said we will be greeted as liberators.
    They have learned nothing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    speedy2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Karl Rove was on Fox News last night, said we will be greeted as liberators.
    They have learned nothing.
    On the other hand, they have forgotten everything.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    kle4 said:

    Given the mans role surely Iran wont just respond by escalating through proxies?

    My guess is in the land of the Bible it will be a Biblical "An eye for an eye" responce, Old Testament style.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473
    Foxy said:

    Is Johnson still in his love nest? Sounds like he is needed back home.

    I wonder who Cummings is backing in World War 3.

    Interesting questions, especially the one about Cummings. Can you "wargame" an actual war? Or is it only for elections?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    kinabalu said:

    Why has Trump done this now? Everything points to the current impeachment process. That an evil murderer has been taken out is no cause for distress, but the almost certainty that Trump has not bothered to think through the consequences of this action is a huge cause for concern. Johnson needs to be very, very careful in his reaction. Here’s hoping.

    Yes, for the motive look for something ridiculous like that rather than anything to do with geopolitical calculus. Likewise if we want to stop him escalating further we must incorporate this weird but wonderful insight. We need to adopt some Dominic Cummings "off the trolley" thinking. What I would suggest is that Barack Obama is persuaded to make a big speech praising Trump for "taking no shit" from the Iranians and recommending the bombing of Tehran. That should do the trick.
    Hillary Clinton would be better. She could work in the words ‘my old friend Donald Trump that I did many real estate deals with’ as well, just to ram home to the Mid West just how unlike her Donald is.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
    These puns are beginning to Hanoi me.
    To be honest, Halong for them to stop as well.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
    These puns are beginning to Hanoi me.
    To be honest, Halong for them to stop as well.
    Hue are amongst the worst offenders!
  • ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
    These puns are beginning to Hanoi me.
    To be honest, Halong for them to stop as well.
    I’m surprised you’ve not made any gags this morning about De Kock and Philander.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
    These puns are beginning to Hanoi me.
    To be honest, Halong for them to stop as well.
    Hue are amongst the worst offenders!
    I will admit Tet, but they are not offensive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
    These puns are beginning to Hanoi me.
    To be honest, Halong for them to stop as well.
    Hue are amongst the worst offenders!
    I will admit Tet, but they are not offensive.
    Are you paid per pun, rather than per Diem ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
    These puns are beginning to Hanoi me.
    To be honest, Halong for them to stop as well.
    I’m surprised you’ve not made any gags this morning about De Kock and Philander.
    The cricket’s too fucking depressing right now.

    At least Joe Root didn’t try to bowl again, but with him having taken Burns out before the match and Crawley out for 4 that’s not important right now.

    Has Root been seen with a new leather jacket recently?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
    These puns are beginning to Hanoi me.
    To be honest, Halong for them to stop as well.
    Hue are amongst the worst offenders!
    I will admit Tet, but they are not offensive.
    Are you paid per pun, rather than per Diem ?
    Ngo.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 971
    kinabalu said:

    Foxy said:

    Is Johnson still in his love nest? Sounds like he is needed back home.

    I wonder who Cummings is backing in World War 3.

    Interesting questions, especially the one about Cummings. Can you "wargame" an actual war? Or is it only for elections?
    You appear obsessed with DC.

    During the Brexit wars we continually heard how the Uk was a tiny irrelevant nation these days and the EU was a big dawg.

    I’d imagine we can therefore sit this one out as Macron , Merkel and the Iranians sit down and make peace.
  • Does anyone want to tell him or shall we leave him foaming?

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    Does anyone want to tell him or shall we leave him foaming?

    We’ll leave Matt decision up to you.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    I'd have thought there's still quite a lot of play in this contest. The candidates aren't that well-known and the Labour party membership have yet to decide what they want to make their next step. Lisa Nandy would be a good choice (for my bank account as well as for the Labour party), but I'm not expecting Labour to make it.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,317
    edited January 3
    speedy2 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Karl Rove was on Fox News last night, said we will be greeted as liberators.
    They have learned nothing.
    A strange sense of circularity after 2003. What this does show, from Trump and a residual circle of ultra-hawks down, is that the assumption of permanently secured, global American dominance, and a global public affirming this dominance, still very much continues in some parts of the American establishment.

    Russia taking the manin role in the middle east, or the emerging reality of Chinese economic dominance, and many other developments of the last few years, haven't shaken these articles of faith among some.

    Because America's role is not what it was, that's a dangerous mix.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
    These puns are beginning to Hanoi me.
    To be honest, Halong for them to stop as well.
    I’m surprised you’ve not made any gags this morning about De Kock and Philander.
    The cricket’s too fucking depressing right now.

    At least Joe Root didn’t try to bowl again, but with him having taken Burns out before the match and Crawley out for 4 that’s not important right now.

    Has Root been seen with a new leather jacket recently?
    As I said after the World Cup final, we’ve used up all our good luck for the next decade.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473
    kle4 said:

    The mind conjures images of someone speaking to someone else loudly enough to be overheard by Trump going 'of course wed like to take him down, but only a super great genius would have the balls to do it' and Trump going 'that's me! Let's do it! Take out who?'

    You've perhaps written this as a piece of whimsy but in fact I can quite easily imagine that this is exactly in every detail what happened. Narcissists are easy to manipulate.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,992

    I'd have thought there's still quite a lot of play in this contest. The candidates aren't that well-known and the Labour party membership have yet to decide what they want to make their next step. Lisa Nandy would be a good choice (for my bank account as well as for the Labour party), but I'm not expecting Labour to make it.

    Agreed. I reckon a fair few on the left think Starmer is one of their own - he was in the shadow cabinet after all.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 971

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
    These puns are beginning to Hanoi me.
    To be honest, Halong for them to stop as well.
    I’m surprised you’ve not made any gags this morning about De Kock and Philander.
    The cricket’s too fucking depressing right now.

    At least Joe Root didn’t try to bowl again, but with him having taken Burns out before the match and Crawley out for 4 that’s not important right now.

    Has Root been seen with a new leather jacket recently?
    As I said after the World Cup final, we’ve used up all our good luck for the next decade.
    The better team won the WC - nothing to do with luck. The lucky team got first use of a terrible pitch - that was the luck.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,713
    Is there a PBer who didn't briefly think to apply?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    TGOHF666 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
    These puns are beginning to Hanoi me.
    To be honest, Halong for them to stop as well.
    I’m surprised you’ve not made any gags this morning about De Kock and Philander.
    The cricket’s too fucking depressing right now.

    At least Joe Root didn’t try to bowl again, but with him having taken Burns out before the match and Crawley out for 4 that’s not important right now.

    Has Root been seen with a new leather jacket recently?
    As I said after the World Cup final, we’ve used up all our good luck for the next decade.
    The better team won the WC - nothing to do with luck. The lucky team got first use of a terrible pitch - that was the luck.
    This was lucky...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/av/cricket/48984283

    Arguably the best moment of 2019.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Iraq is about to eject all Americans out of it's country it seems:


    They have no choice, they don't want their country to become a battlefield during the Iran War.
    It already is that battlefield.

    Is it helicopters from the Embassy roof time yet for the Americans in Iraq?

    ‘I came, I Sai, I gone?’
    These puns are beginning to Hanoi me.
    To be honest, Halong for them to stop as well.
    I’m surprised you’ve not made any gags this morning about De Kock and Philander.
    The cricket’s too fucking depressing right now.

    At least Joe Root didn’t try to bowl again, but with him having taken Burns out before the match and Crawley out for 4 that’s not important right now.

    Has Root been seen with a new leather jacket recently?
    As I said after the World Cup final, we’ve used up all our good luck for the next decade.
    It’s nothing to do with luck. It’s daft management. What is Zak Crawley with 700 runs at 30 - around a quarter of them against Nottinghamshire -doing as backup opener instead of Chris Dent (1100 at 47, admittedly with quite a few against Leicestershire)? Why is Crawley not on the Lions tour working on his technique so he’s ready for number three in a couple of years? Why is football being allowed when it causes injuries? Why was Archer training when he was not fully fit? Why was he forced to bowl long spells? Why is Root still captain when he last won a series 18 months ago? Why is Bairstow the backup keeper instead of Foakes?

    These are easy decisions to make. And yet they are not being made. Silverwood was the wrong choice as coach because he’s an insider and however fine a coach he is (and his Essex record shows how good he is) he’s not making the tough calls.
This discussion has been closed.