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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 70/1 Barry Gardiner may enter the race

SystemSystem Posts: 11,017
edited January 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 70/1 Barry Gardiner may enter the race

In a development that is what widely seen as representing the doubts that hangover Long Bailey as a leadership contender the shadow development secretary Barry Gardiner, is reported to be mulling over entering the race himself.

Read the full story here


«134

Comments

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317
    Laid him at 55.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 3,942
    Chauncey Gardiner has a better chance.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317
    FPT - High-street retail is suffering a double-whammy. People are buying more stuff online, but less stuff overall.

    What can't be matched is the social side, and social concerns are going the other way there with the concerns over smartphone isolation and single living.

    I'd have thought (in addition to reforming business rates so it's based on a low standing rate based on gross profitability) an obvious play would be to merge coffee shops into retail premises, as M&S and Waterstones have done in some locations.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    Man comes across as a loon. And I'm on the left, and vote Labour if they're the best anti-Tory option.
    And I really, really don't like that two day growth of beard look. Have a beard by all means; properly cared for looks good. But two days growth of stubble. Just looks scruffy.
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    edited January 2020
    Tories the new social democrsts?

    This is really interesting because it fits into both the social conservatism and social democracy of the new Tory constituencies

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7867157/amp/Boris-leads-calls-football-bosses-scrap-deal-selling-FA-Cup-rights-gambling-giants.html?__twitter_impression=true
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,078
    OldKingCole said:

    Man comes across as a loon. And I'm on the left, and vote Labour if they're the best anti-Tory option.
    And I really, really don't like that two day growth of beard look. Have a beard by all means; properly cared for looks good. But two days growth of stubble. Just looks scruffy.

    Oh. Well that’s my morning ruined!
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,925
    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    Yep, Lisa Nandy is having a very good week. If she can get to the final ballot she may well have a decent shout. Long-Bailey is deeply unimpressive and there may not be enough dyed-in-the-wool Corbyn cultists to get her over the line. It’s all getting very interesting.

  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - High-street retail is suffering a double-whammy. People are buying more stuff online, but less stuff overall.

    What can't be matched is the social side, and social concerns are going the other way there with the concerns over smartphone isolation and single living.

    I'd have thought (in addition to reforming business rates so it's based on a low standing rate based on gross profitability) an obvious play would be to merge coffee shops into retail premises, as M&S and Waterstones have done in some locations.

    Amid all the talk about towns, those who are actually integral to keeping them going are finding it impossible to stay there.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,964
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - High-street retail is suffering a double-whammy. People are buying more stuff online, but less stuff overall.

    What can't be matched is the social side, and social concerns are going the other way there with the concerns over smartphone isolation and single living.

    I'd have thought (in addition to reforming business rates so it's based on a low standing rate based on gross profitability) an obvious play would be to merge coffee shops into retail premises, as M&S and Waterstones have done in some locations.

    Amid all the talk about towns, those who are actually integral to keeping them going are finding it impossible to stay there.
    Business rates and minimum wage rules are killing them - and if you changed business rates I'm sure pension funds will increase the rent to pocket the difference
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,189
    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - High-street retail is suffering a double-whammy. People are buying more stuff online, but less stuff overall.

    What can't be matched is the social side, and social concerns are going the other way there with the concerns over smartphone isolation and single living.

    I'd have thought (in addition to reforming business rates so it's based on a low standing rate based on gross profitability) an obvious play would be to merge coffee shops into retail premises, as M&S and Waterstones have done in some locations.

    On my birthday recently I was dragged out for brunch at our local Squires Garden Centre, which has a cafe/restaurant. I thought it was an odd choice, but it was really busy, even in Crimbo Limbo.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    Gallowgate said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Man comes across as a loon. And I'm on the left, and vote Labour if they're the best anti-Tory option.
    And I really, really don't like that two day growth of beard look. Have a beard by all means; properly cared for looks good. But two days growth of stubble. Just looks scruffy.

    Oh. Well that’s my morning ruined!
    Sorry, Mr G. But them's my views. Perhaps I'm just showing my age!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    Please, please let Barry Gardiner be running. It would make the contest so much more fun (if not for the Labour Party!).
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    My Labour book keeps getting worse.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
  • Options
    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,988
    Casino_Royale said:

    Laid him at 55.

    Laid him at 44.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,541
    OldKingCole said:

    Man comes across as a loon. And I'm on the left, and vote Labour if they're the best anti-Tory option.
    And I really, really don't like that two day growth of beard look. Have a beard by all means; properly cared for looks good. But two days growth of stubble. Just looks scruffy.

    He comes across a damn sight saner than the current leader...
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    edited January 2020
    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!


  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    In a very difficult market to call my recent bets have been to lay Starmer. It`s not that I think he won`t win in the end, I just think he`s too short at this stage and he will lengthen, at least at some point, and I`ll trade out.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
    I really like her, betting aside. Seems so nice! I reckon she would win over many people who haven't yet heard of her with greater exposure


  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,925
    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
    I really like her, betting aside. Seems so nice! I reckon she would win over many people who haven't yet heard of her with greater exposure

    I agree. She’s been my choice for a while.

  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    Nigelb said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Man comes across as a loon. And I'm on the left, and vote Labour if they're the best anti-Tory option.
    And I really, really don't like that two day growth of beard look. Have a beard by all means; properly cared for looks good. But two days growth of stubble. Just looks scruffy.

    He comes across a damn sight saner than the current leader...
    And your point is?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
    I really like her, betting aside. Seems so nice! I reckon she would win over many people who haven't yet heard of her with greater exposure


    I have the same "problem" when considering her. I find it hard to overlook her institutional disadvantages when she seems to me so obviously the best candidate - or I overcompensate by underrating her attributes.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    Turning to the deputy leader contest, I see that Order Order has Ian Murray already achieving the 22 MP nominations. I`m not betting heavily on this contest, but I just took 23 with Betfair which looks way too long to me.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,974
    maaarsh said:

    The Erasmus chat on the previous thread was really pretty thin gruel. Tory MPs aren't voting for or against continued involvement - they're voting to keep the negotiation entirely in the gift of the executive rather than having their hands tied up by Parliament in a fashion we know does not work.

    Cue months of twitter fake news about what the Tories are for or against, which will bear next to no relation to any deal which eventually gets negotiated.

    Inclined to agree; the problem is that it WAS there and has now been removed. Can, of course, be argued that is was there to help the previous Bill get through!
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,976
    F1: There's a special (another one) on Hamilton at Ladbrokes. 6 on him breaking Schumacher's win record at Hungary.

    Bear in mind that requires a specific number of preceding wins *and* him winning in Hungary.

    On the other hand, if he's dominant early on you could hedge it by just laying him to win every race when he's 1 short of the crucial victory.

    However, Hungary's mid-season so it'd be pretty tight.

    I'm not inclined to bet.
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
    I really like her, betting aside. Seems so nice! I reckon she would win over many people who haven't yet heard of her with greater exposure


    There was a good article on unherd yesterday about the disconnect in her thinking whereby she likes to flash some communitarian leg, but is still fully signed up to the usual Labour shibboleths which are in conflict with it. Ends up being a call to listen to our traditional voters, but not take their advice.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    edited January 2020
    maaarsh said:

    The Erasmus chat on the previous thread was really pretty thin gruel. Tory MPs aren't voting for or against continued involvement - they're voting to keep the negotiation entirely in the gift of the executive rather than having their hands tied up by Parliament in a fashion we know does not work.

    Cue months of twitter fake news about what the Tories are for or against, which will bear next to no relation to any deal which eventually gets negotiated.

    Thread:
    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1215184914888433664?s=20

    https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1215186183699025920?s=20
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
    I really like her, betting aside. Seems so nice! I reckon she would win over many people who haven't yet heard of her with greater exposure

    I agree. She’s been my choice for a while.

    Yes. After the last few years of shouty arguments and everything being outrageous, she might be a welcome calming influence. The mere thought of Jess Phillips overacting at the despatch box is giving me a headache. Nandy always comes across as natural and comfortable in her views to me
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,282
    maaarsh said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
    I really like her, betting aside. Seems so nice! I reckon she would win over many people who haven't yet heard of her with greater exposure


    There was a good article on unherd yesterday about the disconnect in her thinking whereby she likes to flash some communitarian leg, but is still fully signed up to the usual Labour shibboleths which are in conflict with it. Ends up being a call to listen to our traditional voters, but not take their advice.
    Yes. Her interview on Pienaar last Sunday was an exact example of this.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,925
    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
    I really like her, betting aside. Seems so nice! I reckon she would win over many people who haven't yet heard of her with greater exposure


    I have the same "problem" when considering her. I find it hard to overlook her institutional disadvantages when she seems to me so obviously the best candidate - or I overcompensate by underrating her attributes.

    Starmer’s Unison endorsement means he has much less reason now to chase CLP nominations. This will help Nandy, who is really going to need them as she has almost no chance of getting onto the final ballot by the union/affiliate route.

  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,994
    I see The Saj is off to Davos despite Johnson's proscription. Will he be able to find a woolly hat to fit his fucking enormous and almost perfectly spherical head?
  • Options
    kicorsekicorse Posts: 431
    OldKingCole said:

    Man comes across as a loon. And I'm on the left, and vote Labour if they're the best anti-Tory option.
    And I really, really don't like that two day growth of beard look. Have a beard by all means; properly cared for looks good. But two days growth of stubble. Just looks scruffy.

    If your beard grows that much in two days, I feel your pain!

    If Gardiner does stand, he'll slip in at number 5 on my personal ranking of the then 7 contenders. Just ahead of Thornberry, and just behind Long-Bailey. That won't improve if he shaves (don't think it's any better to judge men on things like that than it is to judge women on things like that).
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1214981419690278912?s=20
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    Morris_Dancer said:

    F1: There's a special (another one) on Hamilton at Ladbrokes. 6 on him breaking Schumacher's win record at Hungary.

    Bear in mind that requires a specific number of preceding wins *and* him winning in Hungary.

    On the other hand, if he's dominant early on you could hedge it by just laying him to win every race when he's 1 short of the crucial victory.

    However, Hungary's mid-season so it'd be pretty tight.

    I'm not inclined to bet.

    That is way too short so far out, with little way to hedge if he has a poor start to the season. I'm always wary of these 'special' bets where only one side is offered.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2020
    God Fat Head on Sky is insufferable. He has just wasted a good 2-3 mins of an interview with Robert Jenrick about future of towns / cities, arguing about the fact that a government spokesperson referred to "touring the town centre" of Wolverhampton (when it is a city), with Jenrick saying you know I am from there don't you.

    It is totally unimportant to the wider issue of what the government are going to do about regenerating town and city centres.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    maaarsh said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
    I really like her, betting aside. Seems so nice! I reckon she would win over many people who haven't yet heard of her with greater exposure


    There was a good article on unherd yesterday about the disconnect in her thinking whereby she likes to flash some communitarian leg, but is still fully signed up to the usual Labour shibboleths which are in conflict with it. Ends up being a call to listen to our traditional voters, but not take their advice.
    Yes, good piece.
    https://unherd.com/2020/01/lisa-nandy-cant-have-her-cake-and-eat-it/
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,600
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    God Fat Head on Sky is insufferable. He has just wasted a good 2-3 mins of an interview with Robert Jenrick about future of towns / cities, arguing about the fact that a government spokesperson referred to "touring the town centre" of Wolverhampton (when it is a city), with Jenrick saying you know I am from there don't you.

    It is totally unimportant to the wider issue of what the government are going to do about regenerating town and city centres.

    Who is "God Fat Head"?
  • Options
    RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,157
    SouthamObserver said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
    I really like her, betting aside. Seems so nice! I reckon she would win over many people who haven't yet heard of her with greater exposure


    I have the same "problem" when considering her. I find it hard to overlook her institutional disadvantages when she seems to me so obviously the best candidate - or I overcompensate by underrating her attributes.

    Starmer’s Unison endorsement means he has much less reason now to chase CLP nominations. This will help Nandy, who is really going to need them as she has almost no chance of getting onto the final ballot by the union/affiliate route.

    GMB + USDAW, would be possible for her surely? They're the most Corbynsceptic of the major unions.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sandpit said:

    maaarsh said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
    I really like her, betting aside. Seems so nice! I reckon she would win over many people who haven't yet heard of her with greater exposure


    There was a good article on unherd yesterday about the disconnect in her thinking whereby she likes to flash some communitarian leg, but is still fully signed up to the usual Labour shibboleths which are in conflict with it. Ends up being a call to listen to our traditional voters, but not take their advice.
    Yes, good piece.
    https://unherd.com/2020/01/lisa-nandy-cant-have-her-cake-and-eat-it/
    That is completely unreadable on my screen.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see The Saj is off to Davos despite Johnson's proscription. Will he be able to find a woolly hat to fit his fucking enormous and almost perfectly spherical head?

    I bet his head isn't as big as my 62 cm noggin.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,341
    Nigelb said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Man comes across as a loon. And I'm on the left, and vote Labour if they're the best anti-Tory option.
    And I really, really don't like that two day growth of beard look. Have a beard by all means; properly cared for looks good. But two days growth of stubble. Just looks scruffy.

    He comes across a damn sight saner than the current leader...
    On election day 2017 Jeremy Corbyn was arguably the most popular politician in the country. It still seems to me to be important to understand precisely what was different this time rather than engage in simplistic abuse. Part of it will probably include Boris shooting a lot of Labour foxes (aka Corbyn having won the arguments, if you want to spin it that way).
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,149
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see The Saj is off to Davos despite Johnson's proscription. Will he be able to find a woolly hat to fit his fucking enormous and almost perfectly spherical head?

    He could borrow one off Pete Buttigieg
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    edited January 2020
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    God Fat Head on Sky is insufferable. He has just wasted a good 2-3 mins of an interview with Robert Jenrick about future of towns / cities, arguing about the fact that a government spokesperson referred to "touring the town centre" of Wolverhampton (when it is a city), with Jenrick saying you know I am from there don't you.

    It is totally unimportant to the wider issue of what the government are going to do about regenerating town and city centres.

    Who is "God Fat Head"?
    Adam Bolton OTOH probably does have even more difficulty fitting hats than me.

    I've done the standard Gardiner lay and Nandy back too this morning.

    Nandy is now £141.76 backed at 17.19 and £139.00 laid at 17.26 on Betfair.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,301
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see The Saj is off to Davos despite Johnson's proscription. Will he be able to find a woolly hat to fit his fucking enormous and almost perfectly spherical head?

    Really? Is Saj flagrantly defying Boris? Or was the whole Davos thing just a five-minute wonder?
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,078
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Nigelb said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Man comes across as a loon. And I'm on the left, and vote Labour if they're the best anti-Tory option.
    And I really, really don't like that two day growth of beard look. Have a beard by all means; properly cared for looks good. But two days growth of stubble. Just looks scruffy.

    He comes across a damn sight saner than the current leader...
    On election day 2017 Jeremy Corbyn was arguably the most popular politician in the country. It still seems to me to be important to understand precisely what was different this time rather than engage in simplistic abuse. Part of it will probably include Boris shooting a lot of Labour foxes (aka Corbyn having won the arguments, if you want to spin it that way).
    As I said before, Corbyn was a meme and memes have a shelf life. Its as simple as that.

    Cut away the meme and you just have the baggage riddled Jeremy. It’s amazing how strong the Labour brand is despite this.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1215202546547032064?s=20
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    Someone after 19k of Keir at 1.6
  • Options
    Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,600
    Pulpstar said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    God Fat Head on Sky is insufferable. He has just wasted a good 2-3 mins of an interview with Robert Jenrick about future of towns / cities, arguing about the fact that a government spokesperson referred to "touring the town centre" of Wolverhampton (when it is a city), with Jenrick saying you know I am from there don't you.

    It is totally unimportant to the wider issue of what the government are going to do about regenerating town and city centres.

    Who is "God Fat Head"?
    Adam Bolton OTOH probably does have even more difficulty fitting hats than me.
    Ta. Bolton is also on shaky ground, as it is still hard for us locals to bring ourselves to refer to the centre of Wolverhampton as anything but the town centre, such is its lousy state.

    And I note the latest utterly cosmetic (lack of real) changes to business rates so far announced which are going to do nothing to help. As some stage people are going to react against the continued bluster from Johnson as it fails to be matched by deeds.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    isam said:

    Someone after 19k of Keir at 1.6

    McCluskey investing those union subs well.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    https://twitter.com/williamvercetti/status/1213090272231473152?s=21
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    isam said:

    Someone after 19k of Keir at 1.6

    You're in the money now on your Nandy bets.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,341
    edited January 2020
    Gallowgate said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Nigelb said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Man comes across as a loon. And I'm on the left, and vote Labour if they're the best anti-Tory option.
    And I really, really don't like that two day growth of beard look. Have a beard by all means; properly cared for looks good. But two days growth of stubble. Just looks scruffy.

    He comes across a damn sight saner than the current leader...
    On election day 2017 Jeremy Corbyn was arguably the most popular politician in the country. It still seems to me to be important to understand precisely what was different this time rather than engage in simplistic abuse. Part of it will probably include Boris shooting a lot of Labour foxes (aka Corbyn having won the arguments, if you want to spin it that way).
    As I said before, Corbyn was a meme and memes have a shelf life. Its as simple as that.

    Cut away the meme and you just have the baggage riddled Jeremy. It’s amazing how strong the Labour brand is despite this.
    Maybe. There are also other components.

    One factor not much mentioned from 2017 is that during the 2017 election campaign there were two terrorist incidents (Manchester Arena and London Bridge) which ought (to be cynical) to have boosted the Tories as the Laura Norder party but Labour could point directly to the 20,000 police cuts. We can be sure Boris and Dominic Cummings noticed because that is the very number Boris pledged to recruit.

    So we need to analyse all of these factors to understand how the election was won and lost.

    As an aside, some of the tribalism does not help. Tories should note that Boris ran against Cameron and May just as much as Corbyn ran against Blair.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2020
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    God Fat Head on Sky is insufferable. He has just wasted a good 2-3 mins of an interview with Robert Jenrick about future of towns / cities, arguing about the fact that a government spokesperson referred to "touring the town centre" of Wolverhampton (when it is a city), with Jenrick saying you know I am from there don't you.

    It is totally unimportant to the wider issue of what the government are going to do about regenerating town and city centres.

    Who is "God Fat Head"?
    Adam Bolton OTOH probably does have even more difficulty fitting hats than me.
    Ta. Bolton is also on shaky ground, as it is still hard for us locals to bring ourselves to refer to the centre of Wolverhampton as anything but the town centre, such is its lousy state.

    And I note the latest utterly cosmetic (lack of real) changes to business rates so far announced which are going to do nothing to help. As some stage people are going to react against the continued bluster from Johnson as it fails to be matched by deeds.
    Its true of lots of smaller cities. I'm originally from Stoke and people refer to "going town centre" or "going up Hanley" to mean going to the Potteries centre area.

    The whole argument Bolton was trying to get into was pathetic i.e. in his opinion the government are idiots because the "towns" fund includes some cities, but it is because the government has simply based criteria on total population not city status. It is totally irrelevant to the issue.

    It wasted minutes of the interview about what exactly the government were going to be directing money towards, which the minister was far less convincing about when they finally got onto it.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,612
    Lol...

    https://twitter.com/chicagotribune/status/1214987717374812162?s=20
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    That's a nice photo of Barry Gardiner. His fundamentally good nature and kind disposition shine out of it. I myself will consider him seriously as a candidate but I give him little chance.
  • Options
    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Casino_Royale said:

    FPT - High-street retail is suffering a double-whammy. People are buying more stuff online, but less stuff overall.

    What can't be matched is the social side, and social concerns are going the other way there with the concerns over smartphone isolation and single living.

    I'd have thought (in addition to reforming business rates so it's based on a low standing rate based on gross profitability) an obvious play would be to merge coffee shops into retail premises, as M&S and Waterstones have done in some locations.

    Ottakar’s did this 25 years ago. Where is Ottakar’s now?
  • Options
    kicorsekicorse Posts: 431
    Sandpit said:

    maaarsh said:


    There was a good article on unherd yesterday about the disconnect in her thinking whereby she likes to flash some communitarian leg, but is still fully signed up to the usual Labour shibboleths which are in conflict with it. Ends up being a call to listen to our traditional voters, but not take their advice.

    Yes, good piece.
    https://unherd.com/2020/01/lisa-nandy-cant-have-her-cake-and-eat-it/
    OK, I'm an out-and-out Nandy supporter, so maybe I'm biased, but I thought that the logic the article used: "if you advocate letting communities make decisions, you can't be strongly opposed to one of the possible decisions they might make", is entirely false.

    To take the case of giving a small former mining town the decision to accept 100 asylum seekers, I would be "indistinguishable from your average Momentum activist" in passionately believing that accepting them is morally right, and not accepting them would be morally wrong. There's nothing remotely inconsistent with believing that and also believing that the local community should have a greater say in the decision.

    One strong point she made is that, when empowered in this way, communities tend to surprise people on both the right and left with how open and welcoming they are. She has more evidence for this than that one anecdote. But of course they will occasionally make a decision that I don't like. And yes, that will sometimes make me upset and angry, just as much as it will your average Momentum activist. It doesn't mean it's wrong to empower local communities.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Stocky said:

    In a very difficult market to call my recent bets have been to lay Starmer. It`s not that I think he won`t win in the end, I just think he`s too short at this stage and he will lengthen, at least at some point, and I`ll trade out.

    I said for you to lay Long Bailey back when she was 3.7 !!

    Never mind. We're both long of Nandy at 14 IIRC.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,994
    Stark_Dawning said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see The Saj is off to Davos despite Johnson's proscription. Will he be able to find a woolly hat to fit his fucking enormous and almost perfectly spherical head?

    Really? Is Saj flagrantly defying Boris? Or was the whole Davos thing just a five-minute wonder?
    It was one of the Johnson pledges that the audience chose to parse in the literal rather than the purely symbolic sense. See also: I'll pay for the abortion.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,317
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    In a very difficult market to call my recent bets have been to lay Starmer. It`s not that I think he won`t win in the end, I just think he`s too short at this stage and he will lengthen, at least at some point, and I`ll trade out.

    I said for you to lay Long Bailey back when she was 3.7 !!

    I actually did that bet in the end.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    Casino_Royale said:

    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    In a very difficult market to call my recent bets have been to lay Starmer. It`s not that I think he won`t win in the end, I just think he`s too short at this stage and he will lengthen, at least at some point, and I`ll trade out.

    I said for you to lay Long Bailey back when she was 3.7 !!

    I actually did that bet in the end.
    Crikey, 8 now
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,202
    kicorse said:

    Sandpit said:

    maaarsh said:


    There was a good article on unherd yesterday about the disconnect in her thinking whereby she likes to flash some communitarian leg, but is still fully signed up to the usual Labour shibboleths which are in conflict with it. Ends up being a call to listen to our traditional voters, but not take their advice.

    Yes, good piece.
    https://unherd.com/2020/01/lisa-nandy-cant-have-her-cake-and-eat-it/
    OK, I'm an out-and-out Nandy supporter, so maybe I'm biased, but I thought that the logic the article used: "if you advocate letting communities make decisions, you can't be strongly opposed to one of the possible decisions they might make", is entirely false.

    To take the case of giving a small former mining town the decision to accept 100 asylum seekers, I would be "indistinguishable from your average Momentum activist" in passionately believing that accepting them is morally right, and not accepting them would be morally wrong. There's nothing remotely inconsistent with believing that and also believing that the local community should have a greater say in the decision.

    One strong point she made is that, when empowered in this way, communities tend to surprise people on both the right and left with how open and welcoming they are. She has more evidence for this than that one anecdote. But of course they will occasionally make a decision that I don't like. And yes, that will sometimes make me upset and angry, just as much as it will your average Momentum activist. It doesn't mean it's wrong to empower local communities.
    Isn’t the point the article is making that if you empower local communities, you ought to be prepared to accept that they will make decisions you personally disagree with. If you are only giving them the illusion of control and in fact only allowing them to make decisions you agree with then your talk of empowering communities is just that - talk. The writer seemed to be saying that a choice needed to be made and it was not clear which side of that choice Nandy really would take.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,599
    Delurking to point out that my facial hair resembled that of Bazza. I 'almost shave' once a fortnight or so.

    Wor Lass is a fan of Gardiner.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,952
    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
    I really like her, betting aside. Seems so nice! I reckon she would win over many people who haven't yet heard of her with greater exposure

    I agree. She’s been my choice for a while.

    Yes. After the last few years of shouty arguments and everything being outrageous, she might be a welcome calming influence. The mere thought of Jess Phillips overacting at the despatch box is giving me a headache. Nandy always comes across as natural and comfortable in her views to me
    Have you or anyone else got the live list of nominations that Andrea posted last night? My sense was that Lisa might find the 22 she needs but I can’t find the bloody list.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,078
    SandyRentool said:

    Delurking to point out that my facial hair resembled that of Bazza. I 'almost shave' once a fortnight or so.

    Wor Lass is a fan of Gardiner.

    My lass hates Gardiner with a fiery passion. 🤷‍♂️
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    SouthamObserver said:

    Starmer’s Unison endorsement means he has much less reason now to chase CLP nominations. This will help Nandy, who is really going to need them as she has almost no chance of getting onto the final ballot by the union/affiliate route.

    Won't he therefore want to maximize his nominations to keep Nandy off the ballot? Because with Nandy off the ballot he's almost certainly got it.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Gardiner's run is reminding me of Brady's. Similar odds on Betfair, similar chances.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    Barry Gardiner backed the Iraq War, Starmer opposed it, so Gardiner cannot really overtake Long Bailey as the candidate of the left
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    kinabalu said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Starmer’s Unison endorsement means he has much less reason now to chase CLP nominations. This will help Nandy, who is really going to need them as she has almost no chance of getting onto the final ballot by the union/affiliate route.

    Won't he therefore want to maximize his nominations to keep Nandy off the ballot? Because with Nandy off the ballot he's almost certainly got it.
    That was Gordon Brown's MO - he got so many nominations himself that no-one else could get enough.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    Anabobazina said:

    isam said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    This says more about Rebecca Long-Bailey than the chances of LOTO Gardiner.

    Nature abhors a vacuum and so Lisa Nandy looks well-placed.

    I backed her at 7.8 when I read that... and she's now 9s!
    As far as I can tell Starmer shortened on the news and everyone else lengthened
    I mean I backed her at 08:53 this morning at 7.8 and she was 9 by 08:56!
    I think your bet was a good one, if unfortunately timed. There are going to be enough doubters of Keir Starmer to make this a contest, and if Rebecca Long-Bailey is not going to be an effective rival, Lisa Nandy is.
    I really like her, betting aside. Seems so nice! I reckon she would win over many people who haven't yet heard of her with greater exposure

    I agree. She’s been my choice for a while.

    Yes. After the last few years of shouty arguments and everything being outrageous, she might be a welcome calming influence. The mere thought of Jess Phillips overacting at the despatch box is giving me a headache. Nandy always comes across as natural and comfortable in her views to me
    Have you or anyone else got the live list of nominations that Andrea posted last night? My sense was that Lisa might find the 22 she needs but I can’t find the bloody list.
    This one?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10q5FYBp4skFfDNpauWAdUMnP1NbBryW8qkYVC7uTICU/edit?ts=5e130253#gid=0
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,917
    Gallowgate said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Delurking to point out that my facial hair resembled that of Bazza. I 'almost shave' once a fortnight or so.

    Wor Lass is a fan of Gardiner.

    My lass hates Gardiner with a fiery passion. 🤷‍♂️
    My other half is considering joining to vote. And no, she's not a £3 Tory.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,925
    kinabalu said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Starmer’s Unison endorsement means he has much less reason now to chase CLP nominations. This will help Nandy, who is really going to need them as she has almost no chance of getting onto the final ballot by the union/affiliate route.

    Won't he therefore want to maximize his nominations to keep Nandy off the ballot? Because with Nandy off the ballot he's almost certainly got it.

    I doubt RLB is going to be very transfer friendly, so she’ll need a big first round lead if Nandy makes the final three. But Starmer would prefer a two-horse race, I suspect.

  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1215202546547032064?s=20

    Blitzed the argument.
    Shifted the Overton Window.
    Turned the Tories into a fiscally reckless statist party.
    Left them owning the looming Brexit disaster.
    Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
  • Options
    nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1215202546547032064?s=20

    The Labout manifesto of 2019 will be implemented by the tories within 40 years.
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    HYUFD said:

    Barry Gardiner backed the Iraq War, Starmer opposed it, so Gardiner cannot really overtake Long Bailey as the candidate of the left

    Was Starmer an MP at the time of the Iraq war??
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    maaarsh said:

    There was a good article on unherd yesterday about the disconnect in her thinking whereby she likes to flash some communitarian leg, but is still fully signed up to the usual Labour shibboleths which are in conflict with it. Ends up being a call to listen to our traditional voters, but not take their advice.

    Exactly so - and this is what we want and need. Listen (properly) but do not pander. Educate and inform but do not patronize. Easy for me to type out, not so easy to do in practice. Nandy looks IMO the most likely to pull this trick off. Although it's not a trick. That has negative connotations. Challenge is a better word. Or mission. The mission is to win back WWC votes without losing the likes of me. She is my 1st pref atm with Starmer 2nd. All others (despite soft spots for many of them) nowhere.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barry Gardiner backed the Iraq War, Starmer opposed it, so Gardiner cannot really overtake Long Bailey as the candidate of the left

    Was Starmer an MP at the time of the Iraq war??
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/mar/17/foreignpolicy.iraq1
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    edited January 2020
    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barry Gardiner backed the Iraq War, Starmer opposed it, so Gardiner cannot really overtake Long Bailey as the candidate of the left

    Was Starmer an MP at the time of the Iraq war??
    'Sorry, Mr Blair, but 1441 does not authorise force - Keir Starmer'

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/mar/17/foreignpolicy.iraq1
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Are we still only on 34% Lab MPs declared?
  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391
    kinabalu said:

    maaarsh said:

    There was a good article on unherd yesterday about the disconnect in her thinking whereby she likes to flash some communitarian leg, but is still fully signed up to the usual Labour shibboleths which are in conflict with it. Ends up being a call to listen to our traditional voters, but not take their advice.

    Exactly so - and this is what we want and need. Listen (properly) but do not pander. Educate and inform but do not patronize. Easy for me to type out, not so easy to do in practice. Nandy looks IMO the most likely to pull this trick off. Although it's not a trick. That has negative connotations. Challenge is a better word. Or mission. The mission is to win back WWC votes without losing the likes of me. She is my 1st pref atm with Starmer 2nd. All others (despite soft spots for many of them) nowhere.
    Do you think the likes of you need to be challenged in your views at all, or is it a one way street. If not, where should she stop pandering to you and move you back towards WWC voters?
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,983
    kinabalu said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1215202546547032064?s=20

    Blitzed the argument.
    Shifted the Overton Window.
    Turned the Tories into a fiscally reckless statist party.
    Left them owning the looming Brexit disaster.
    Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
    Of course Labour won 3 elections under Blair on a Thatcherite lite agenda, if Boris wins elections on a Corbyn lite economic agenda just returning the favour
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,078
    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1215202546547032064?s=20

    Blitzed the argument.
    Shifted the Overton Window.
    Turned the Tories into a fiscally reckless statist party.
    Left them owning the looming Brexit disaster.
    Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
    Of course Labour won 3 elections under Blair on a Thatcherite lite agenda, if Boris wins elections on a Corbyn lite economic agenda just returning the favour
    What does that even mean?
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,202
    kinabalu said:

    maaarsh said:

    There was a good article on unherd yesterday about the disconnect in her thinking whereby she likes to flash some communitarian leg, but is still fully signed up to the usual Labour shibboleths which are in conflict with it. Ends up being a call to listen to our traditional voters, but not take their advice.

    Exactly so - and this is what we want and need. Listen (properly) but do not pander. Educate and inform but do not patronize. Easy for me to type out, not so easy to do in practice. Nandy looks IMO the most likely to pull this trick off. Although it's not a trick. That has negative connotations. Challenge is a better word. Or mission. The mission is to win back WWC votes without losing the likes of me. She is my 1st pref atm with Starmer 2nd. All others (despite soft spots for many of them) nowhere.
    Perhaps it’s your views which need challenging. Not those of WWC voters. “Educating and informing” sounds pretty patronising. Maybe voters like you (and me) should be on the receiving end of some education and information about what life is like for - and the concerns of - voters outside Hampstead.

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,881
    edited January 2020
    philiph said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barry Gardiner backed the Iraq War, Starmer opposed it, so Gardiner cannot really overtake Long Bailey as the candidate of the left

    Was Starmer an MP at the time of the Iraq war??
    No, he's only been an MP since 2015. He was at the time a prominent barrister though, specialising in 'human rights', and was a critic of the legal basis for the war.
  • Options
    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Am well underwater on this market, despite several opportunities to cash out at a profit.

    The only hope of rescue is if Thornberry somehow turns things round.... yet somehow she is 299/1 at the moment and drifting...
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,341
    kinabalu said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1215202546547032064?s=20

    Blitzed the argument.
    Shifted the Overton Window.
    Turned the Tories into a fiscally reckless statist party.
    Left them owning the looming Brexit disaster.
    Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
    Trouble is he lost the bleeding election. Again.

    Someone here the other day pointed out that even HMG's proposed Australian points-based system is a statist solution rather than letting companies sponsor immigrants.
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,915
    edited January 2020
    maaarsh said:

    kinabalu said:

    maaarsh said:

    There was a good article on unherd yesterday about the disconnect in her thinking whereby she likes to flash some communitarian leg, but is still fully signed up to the usual Labour shibboleths which are in conflict with it. Ends up being a call to listen to our traditional voters, but not take their advice.

    Exactly so - and this is what we want and need. Listen (properly) but do not pander. Educate and inform but do not patronize. Easy for me to type out, not so easy to do in practice. Nandy looks IMO the most likely to pull this trick off. Although it's not a trick. That has negative connotations. Challenge is a better word. Or mission. The mission is to win back WWC votes without losing the likes of me. She is my 1st pref atm with Starmer 2nd. All others (despite soft spots for many of them) nowhere.
    Do you think the likes of you need to be challenged in your views at all, or is it a one way street. If not, where should she stop pandering to you and move you back towards WWC voters?
    Asylum seekers should be housed in the most expensive postcodes. Why should people already at the rough end of society be the ones to have to adapt and understand? They have enough on their plate
  • Options
    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Are we still only on 34% Lab MPs declared?

    Don't know if it was Guido or me, but now 47%.

    RLB only needs two more. I do think she is currently long because I do not see many backers going with Nandy.
  • Options
    StockyStocky Posts: 9,718
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    In a very difficult market to call my recent bets have been to lay Starmer. It`s not that I think he won`t win in the end, I just think he`s too short at this stage and he will lengthen, at least at some point, and I`ll trade out.

    I said for you to lay Long Bailey back when she was 3.7 !!

    Never mind. We're both long of Nandy at 14 IIRC.
    Yes, I hesitated too long on laying RLB.

    I`m on Nandy at good odds (and Starmer).
  • Options
    kicorsekicorse Posts: 431
    Cyclefree said:

    kicorse said:

    Sandpit said:

    maaarsh said:


    There was a good article on unherd yesterday about the disconnect in her thinking whereby she likes to flash some communitarian leg, but is still fully signed up to the usual Labour shibboleths which are in conflict with it. Ends up being a call to listen to our traditional voters, but not take their advice.

    Yes, good piece.
    https://unherd.com/2020/01/lisa-nandy-cant-have-her-cake-and-eat-it/
    OK, I'm an out-and-out Nandy supporter, so maybe I'm biased, but I thought that the logic the article used: "if you advocate letting communities make decisions, you can't be strongly opposed to one of the possible decisions they might make", is entirely false.

    To take the case of giving a small former mining town the decision to accept 100 asylum seekers, I would be "indistinguishable from your average Momentum activist" in passionately believing that accepting them is morally right, and not accepting them would be morally wrong. There's nothing remotely inconsistent with believing that and also believing that the local community should have a greater say in the decision.

    One strong point she made is that, when empowered in this way, communities tend to surprise people on both the right and left with how open and welcoming they are. She has more evidence for this than that one anecdote. But of course they will occasionally make a decision that I don't like. And yes, that will sometimes make me upset and angry, just as much as it will your average Momentum activist. It doesn't mean it's wrong to empower local communities.
    Isn’t the point the article is making that if you empower local communities, you ought to be prepared to accept that they will make decisions you personally disagree with. If you are only giving them the illusion of control and in fact only allowing them to make decisions you agree with then your talk of empowering communities is just that - talk. The writer seemed to be saying that a choice needed to be made and it was not clear which side of that choice Nandy really would take.
    To me, she's made it extremely clear over the last few years that she respects democratic decisions that she strongly disagrees with, even to the point of risking being thrown out of the PLP.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,962
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    kinabalu said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1215202546547032064?s=20

    Blitzed the argument.
    Shifted the Overton Window.
    Turned the Tories into a fiscally reckless statist party.
    Left them owning the looming Brexit disaster.
    Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
    Trouble is he lost the bleeding election. Again.

    Someone here the other day pointed out that even HMG's proposed Australian points-based system is a statist solution rather than letting companies sponsor immigrants.
    Is any country’s immigration system run in the private sector?
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,187
    Cyclefree said:

    Perhaps it’s your views which need challenging. Not those of WWC voters. “Educating and informing” sounds pretty patronising. Maybe voters like you (and me) should be on the receiving end of some education and information about what life is like for - and the concerns of - voters outside Hampstead.

    Yes, all views need challenging. And "educate and inform" DOES sound patronizing. That's my exact point. It is much easier to say that we need to educate and inform these new WWC Tory voters without talking down to them than it is to do that in practice. Massive challenge. And yes it works both ways. They need to educate and inform people like me without sounding ill educated and uninformed. Also a massive challenge. So the new Labour leader must be an effective conduit both ways. Massive MASSIVE challenge for whoever it is. And atm, for me, it's Lisa Nandy who looks best equipped.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,040
    Thoughts and prayers at this difficult time..

    https://twitter.com/annastewartcnn/status/1215188376275554304?s=20
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Thoughts and prayers at this difficult time..

    twitter.com/annastewartcnn/status/1215188376275554304?s=20

    Should form a support group with the likes of Mr Stop Brexit.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited January 2020
    Now we cross to Piers Morgan, for a considered opinion on the news of The Sussexes decision to try to form a progressive third way of being a royal....

    Why the Queen must FIRE Their Royal Hustlers: Deluded Meghan and Harry should be stripped of their titles before this pair of grasping, selfish, scheming Kardashian-wannabes bring down the Monarchy

    I've seen some disgraceful royal antics in my time, but for pure arrogance, entitlement, greed, and wilful disrespect, nothing has ever quite matched the behaviour of the 'Duke and Duchess of Sussex.'

    I put inverted commas around those titles because I sincerely hope they won't exist much longer.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The very worst bit about this Royal news is such catastrophic failure at the Piers Morgan game.
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