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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If LAB had held Durham NW then Starmer’s task could have been

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  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,316

    Depends when the report gets published. If it is before voting has finished.....

    No-one has ever suggested that Keir Starmer is soft on anti-Semitism or soft on the causes of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, so I'm sure the ECHR report won't be a problem for him personally. Assuming I am right, he just needs to make absolutely clear that he's going to clear out the sewer. Which I think he will, to be fair.
    George Osborne in tonight's Evening Standard has claimed the only Labour leadership figure the Conservatives should worry about is Sir Keir Starmer as he will look like a credible alternative PM from Day One.

    This will be a journey of many small steps if Starmer prevails but I do think he can take the debate to Johnson at PMQs and elsewhere effectively. I'm also of the view that nothing succeeds like success and if Labour start closing down the poll gap and even take the lead in the next 6-12 months Starmer will find internal party management much easier.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 491

    Depends when the report gets published. If it is before voting has finished.....

    No-one has ever suggested that Keir Starmer is soft on anti-Semitism or soft on the causes of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, so I'm sure the ECHR report won't be a problem for him personally. Assuming I am right, he just needs to make absolutely clear that he's going to clear out the sewer. Which I think he will, to be fair.
    I wonder how many revoked memberships might be required to clean out the sewer, to really clean it out.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,316
    kle4 said:

    Depends when the report gets published. If it is before voting has finished.....

    No-one has ever suggested that Keir Starmer is soft on anti-Semitism or soft on the causes of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, so I'm sure the ECHR report won't be a problem for him personally. Assuming I am right, he just needs to make absolutely clear that he's going to clear out the sewer. Which I think he will, to be fair.
    I just don't know how he can do that without, in some way, forcing a confrontation with Corbyn though - whether one believes Corbyn to be personally anti-semitic or not he's said things close to the line, or associated with those close to or over the line, enough times that being tough on the matter, clearing out the sewer, is going to include a lot of people who are good friends of Corbyns. He managed to divest himself of Williamson and a few others, but if it goes further?
    That's a problem for all the candidates, though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,540

    kle4 said:

    Depends when the report gets published. If it is before voting has finished.....

    No-one has ever suggested that Keir Starmer is soft on anti-Semitism or soft on the causes of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, so I'm sure the ECHR report won't be a problem for him personally. Assuming I am right, he just needs to make absolutely clear that he's going to clear out the sewer. Which I think he will, to be fair.
    I just don't know how he can do that without, in some way, forcing a confrontation with Corbyn though - whether one believes Corbyn to be personally anti-semitic or not he's said things close to the line, or associated with those close to or over the line, enough times that being tough on the matter, clearing out the sewer, is going to include a lot of people who are good friends of Corbyns. He managed to divest himself of Williamson and a few others, but if it goes further?
    That's a problem for all the candidates, though.
    I don't think confronting Corbyn on anything would be a priority for Rebecca '10/10' Long-Bailey.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,316
    stodge said:

    Depends when the report gets published. If it is before voting has finished.....

    No-one has ever suggested that Keir Starmer is soft on anti-Semitism or soft on the causes of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, so I'm sure the ECHR report won't be a problem for him personally. Assuming I am right, he just needs to make absolutely clear that he's going to clear out the sewer. Which I think he will, to be fair.
    George Osborne in tonight's Evening Standard has claimed the only Labour leadership figure the Conservatives should worry about is Sir Keir Starmer as he will look like a credible alternative PM from Day One.

    This will be a journey of many small steps if Starmer prevails but I do think he can take the debate to Johnson at PMQs and elsewhere effectively. I'm also of the view that nothing succeeds like success and if Labour start closing down the poll gap and even take the lead in the next 6-12 months Starmer will find internal party management much easier.
    Yes, I'd agree with all that. As I've said before, IMO Starmer would be better than any of the last three leaders (admittedly not a high bar). Though it's true that he's a bit on the dull side, he's certainly credible, which is the main thing at the moment.

    That's not to say that some of the other candidates couldn't grow into the role, but they are less 'oven-ready'.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 25,316
    edited January 13
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Depends when the report gets published. If it is before voting has finished.....

    No-one has ever suggested that Keir Starmer is soft on anti-Semitism or soft on the causes of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, so I'm sure the ECHR report won't be a problem for him personally. Assuming I am right, he just needs to make absolutely clear that he's going to clear out the sewer. Which I think he will, to be fair.
    I just don't know how he can do that without, in some way, forcing a confrontation with Corbyn though - whether one believes Corbyn to be personally anti-semitic or not he's said things close to the line, or associated with those close to or over the line, enough times that being tough on the matter, clearing out the sewer, is going to include a lot of people who are good friends of Corbyns. He managed to divest himself of Williamson and a few others, but if it goes further?
    That's a problem for all the candidates, though.
    I don't think confronting Corbyn on anything would be a priority for Rebecca '10/10' Long-Bailey.
    True, but that means the ECHR report (if it comes out during the contest) would be a bigger problem for her than for Sir Keir.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,790
    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Spectator:

    "Javid in part secured his position as Chancellor for some time to come by giving Johnson Christmas reading in the shape of an 18-page report on his ideas for levelling up the country."

    I'd think Boris was more of a 2 page exec summary kind of man.
    More like half a side of A4
    He did have 2 whole weeks on the beach to read it.
    I doubt that such matters were high on his agenda
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 505
    stodge said:

    Depends when the report gets published. If it is before voting has finished.....

    No-one has ever suggested that Keir Starmer is soft on anti-Semitism or soft on the causes of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, so I'm sure the ECHR report won't be a problem for him personally. Assuming I am right, he just needs to make absolutely clear that he's going to clear out the sewer. Which I think he will, to be fair.
    George Osborne in tonight's Evening Standard has claimed the only Labour leadership figure the Conservatives should worry about is Sir Keir Starmer as he will look like a credible alternative PM from Day One.

    This will be a journey of many small steps if Starmer prevails but I do think he can take the debate to Johnson at PMQs and elsewhere effectively. I'm also of the view that nothing succeeds like success and if Labour start closing down the poll gap and even take the lead in the next 6-12 months Starmer will find internal party management much easier.
    On what basis is Labour going to take the lead in that time period? The people who despised Labour's anti-patriotism, woke nonsense, and socialism in December 2019 are still going to despise it at the end of this year, so either Starmer ditches it wholesale or nothing much will change.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,336
    Let's imagine Keir wins it (and Angela).

    Who does he appoint to the front bench?

    Centrists would mean a few throwback figures - surely not a good look.

    So who are the compromise candidates - soft left but he can work with?
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 739


    Even more than that, I think, Pidcock's attitude encapsulates the reasons for Labour's defeat: the Right seeks converts, whereas the Left seeks heretics. Guess which one produces better results in elections?

    Somebody tell Donald Trump that B)
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,522
    stodge said:

    Depends when the report gets published. If it is before voting has finished.....

    No-one has ever suggested that Keir Starmer is soft on anti-Semitism or soft on the causes of anti-Semitism in the Labour Party, so I'm sure the ECHR report won't be a problem for him personally. Assuming I am right, he just needs to make absolutely clear that he's going to clear out the sewer. Which I think he will, to be fair.
    George Osborne in tonight's Evening Standard has claimed the only Labour leadership figure the Conservatives should worry about is Sir Keir Starmer as he will look like a credible alternative PM from Day One.

    This will be a journey of many small steps if Starmer prevails but I do think he can take the debate to Johnson at PMQs and elsewhere effectively. I'm also of the view that nothing succeeds like success and if Labour start closing down the poll gap and even take the lead in the next 6-12 months Starmer will find internal party management much easier.
    Starmer is the standard bearer for the Labour Remain/Referendum policy fudge. He isn't the man to win back the North and Midlands.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,308
    edited January 13

    Let's imagine Keir wins it (and Angela).

    Who does he appoint to the front bench?

    Centrists would mean a few throwback figures - surely not a good look.

    So who are the compromise candidates - soft left but he can work with?

    Miliband, Benn, Rayner/Thornberry, Philips, Nandy, RLB to keep the Corbynites on side, Cooper to keep the Blairites/Brownites of that era on side too.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,340

    More like half a side of A4

    3 words more like. 4 at a push

    Get levelling up done.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,316



    On what basis is Labour going to take the lead in that time period? The people who despised Labour's anti-patriotism, woke nonsense, and socialism in December 2019 are still going to despise it at the end of this year, so either Starmer ditches it wholesale or nothing much will change.

    Churning out all your anti-Labour rhetoric in a pointless distribe doesn't alter the fact politics is back to "normal" which means a Government doing things which not everybody is going to support. It also means small-scale problems becoming large-scale crises, a ministerial resignation perhaps and the general warp and weft of Government which erodes public support over time.

    Starmer, if elected, will be a far more formidable opponent than some on the Conservative side believe and I suspect re-gaining support in the North and Midlands will be high on his priority list. Once Brexit is delivered, some of the reason for those who went Conservative last month, will disappear and they will rightly start to ask just how much better they and their communities are doing from a Johnson Government.

    I may be wrong and Johnson, as a high-spending centralising social democrat, will prove quite popular (after all, everyone likes a bit of largesse their way) but will it last and what happens when the financial taps stop?

  • CatManCatMan Posts: 739


    Starmer is the standard bearer for the Labour Remain/Referendum policy fudge. He isn't the man to win back the North and Midlands.

    But wouldn't Labour win a majority if everybody who supported Remain voted for them?
  • The only scenario in which we probably see an election within the year is next January. The UK gets a deal that looks acceptable in the surface, the economy isn't doing badly and the Tories call an election, hoping to ride all this to another majority.

    Otherwise, it’s a long time. Labour needs a dull centrist for this slog and that person probably is Sir Keir.
  • HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, I am sure down at Sandringham that came as a big relief and allowed them to focus on family breakdown.

    BBC Breaking News - "Transition" agreed for the Sussexes, during which a final settlement and modus operandi for the couple will be worked out. So, worst case scenario could still be "No Deal" and a crash out of the Family to Canada when the transition period ends. Sorry :smile:
    Then crash out and cut off without a penny if they don't do any royal duties
    Being "cut off without a penny" still leaves them with a very comfortable living, based on Harry's various trusts. And once that step's been taken, they can do whatever they want (which is probably a sobering thought to the palace.)
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,520
    Shadow Cabinet will be very interesting.

    Starmer seems to have said pretty clearly that he largely supports Corbyn's economic policies - in particular saying the UK's current economic model is broken.

    However, key question is to what extent he truly believes that and to what extent he is just trying to keep enough Corbyn supporters onside to win the leadership election with a view to then moving towards the centre left later.

    The Shadow Cabinet will surely provide the answer. If RLB comes a close 2nd and Starmer makes her Shadow Chancellor then the country remains in grave danger. On the other hand if the Shadow Chancellor is, eg, EdM, Jarvis or Cooper then we know he's going for a position similar to EdM.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,308
    edited January 13
    MikeL said:

    Shadow Cabinet will be very interesting.

    Starmer seems to have said pretty clearly that he largely supports Corbyn's economic policies - in particular saying the UK's current economic model is broken.

    However, key question is to what extent he truly believes that and to what extent he is just trying to keep enough Corbyn supporters onside to win the leadership election with a view to then moving towards the centre left later.

    The Shadow Cabinet will surely provide the answer. If RLB comes a close 2nd and Starmer makes her Shadow Chancellor then the country remains in grave danger. On the other hand if the Shadow Chancellor is, eg, EdM, Jarvis or Cooper then we know he's going for a position similar to EdM.

    I would be exceptionally surprised if he made RLB shadow chancellor. Miliband or Benn much more likely.

    You'll notice Miliband was the first ex-New Labour politician to talk of Britain's economic model being broken.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Spectator:

    "Javid in part secured his position as Chancellor for some time to come by giving Johnson Christmas reading in the shape of an 18-page report on his ideas for levelling up the country."

    I'd think Boris was more of a 2 page exec summary kind of man.
    More like half a side of A4
    He did have 2 whole weeks on the beach to read it.
    I doubt that such matters were high on his agenda
    I now have a mental image of Boris Johnson, on the beach, dealing with other matters.

    It is a mental image I could well have done without. Even leaving aside the beached whale simile...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108

    The only scenario in which we probably see an election within the year is next January. The UK gets a deal that looks acceptable in the surface, the economy isn't doing badly and the Tories call an election, hoping to ride all this to another majority.

    Otherwise, it’s a long time. Labour needs a dull centrist for this slog and that person probably is Sir Keir.

    Seems high risk to call another election when you have a majority of 80 already!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    edited January 13

    HYUFD said:

    kinabalu said:

    Yes, I am sure down at Sandringham that came as a big relief and allowed them to focus on family breakdown.

    BBC Breaking News - "Transition" agreed for the Sussexes, during which a final settlement and modus operandi for the couple will be worked out. So, worst case scenario could still be "No Deal" and a crash out of the Family to Canada when the transition period ends. Sorry :smile:
    Then crash out and cut off without a penny if they don't do any royal duties
    Being "cut off without a penny" still leaves them with a very comfortable living, based on Harry's various trusts. And once that step's been taken, they can do whatever they want (which is probably a sobering thought to the palace.)
    To an extent, most of their brand's value comes from being royal, the further away from the royal family they are the less value it has and they are just an ex soldier and C list actress.

    Though they will be pleased Trudeau has agreed Canada will pay their security Bill when they are in the country

    https://www.pressreader.com/uk/evening-standard-west-end-final/20200113/281500753195512
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    edited January 13
    RobD said:

    The only scenario in which we probably see an election within the year is next January. The UK gets a deal that looks acceptable in the surface, the economy isn't doing badly and the Tories call an election, hoping to ride all this to another majority.

    Otherwise, it’s a long time. Labour needs a dull centrist for this slog and that person probably is Sir Keir.

    Seems high risk to call another election when you have a majority of 80 already!
    Especially as it will be 102 after boundary changes, no chance at all
  • RobD said:

    The only scenario in which we probably see an election within the year is next January. The UK gets a deal that looks acceptable in the surface, the economy isn't doing badly and the Tories call an election, hoping to ride all this to another majority.

    Otherwise, it’s a long time. Labour needs a dull centrist for this slog and that person probably is Sir Keir.

    Seems high risk to call another election when you have a majority of 80 already!
    Winning all those former Labour seats must have been a huge rush. I don't think it's the most likely course of action but don't underestimate the challenge of cementing those changes.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,770
    MikeL said:

    Shadow Cabinet will be very interesting.

    Starmer seems to have said pretty clearly that he largely supports Corbyn's economic policies - in particular saying the UK's current economic model is broken.

    However, key question is to what extent he truly believes that and to what extent he is just trying to keep enough Corbyn supporters onside to win the leadership election with a view to then moving towards the centre left later.

    The Shadow Cabinet will surely provide the answer. If RLB comes a close 2nd and Starmer makes her Shadow Chancellor then the country remains in grave danger. On the other hand if the Shadow Chancellor is, eg, EdM, Jarvis or Cooper then we know he's going for a position similar to EdM.

    There seems to be a great deal of projection about what Starmer believes. All things to all (wo)men. People criticise Johnson for being all about power but how different is Starmer?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    edited January 13
    George Osborne says Sir Keir Starmer is the Labour leader CCHQ fears in reply to Wes Streeting pushing Jess Phillips

    https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/letters/the-reader-jess-phillips-is-the-bold-choice-to-rescue-labour-a4333061.html
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,893
    matt said:

    MikeL said:

    Shadow Cabinet will be very interesting.

    Starmer seems to have said pretty clearly that he largely supports Corbyn's economic policies - in particular saying the UK's current economic model is broken.

    However, key question is to what extent he truly believes that and to what extent he is just trying to keep enough Corbyn supporters onside to win the leadership election with a view to then moving towards the centre left later.

    The Shadow Cabinet will surely provide the answer. If RLB comes a close 2nd and Starmer makes her Shadow Chancellor then the country remains in grave danger. On the other hand if the Shadow Chancellor is, eg, EdM, Jarvis or Cooper then we know he's going for a position similar to EdM.

    There seems to be a great deal of projection about what Starmer believes. All things to all (wo)men. People criticise Johnson for being all about power but how different is Starmer?
    The hustings will be enlightening on this front. To answer a question asked earlier, they will all be live-streamed apparently.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    edited January 13

    RobD said:

    The only scenario in which we probably see an election within the year is next January. The UK gets a deal that looks acceptable in the surface, the economy isn't doing badly and the Tories call an election, hoping to ride all this to another majority.

    Otherwise, it’s a long time. Labour needs a dull centrist for this slog and that person probably is Sir Keir.

    Seems high risk to call another election when you have a majority of 80 already!
    Winning all those former Labour seats must have been a huge rush. I don't think it's the most likely course of action but don't underestimate the challenge of cementing those changes.
    Won't happen, Tory MPs are not going to risk their seats and Boris No 10 unless it looks like a 1997 or 1983 style landslide and probably not even then, they remember 2017 as much as 2019
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180
    RobD said:

    The only scenario in which we probably see an election within the year is next January. The UK gets a deal that looks acceptable in the surface, the economy isn't doing badly and the Tories call an election, hoping to ride all this to another majority.

    Otherwise, it’s a long time. Labour needs a dull centrist for this slog and that person probably is Sir Keir.

    Seems high risk to call another election when you have a majority of 80 already!
    More like, 'seems utterly pointless.' If we were three years into a Parliament I could understand it, but not just twelve months.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,671
    OK, here's where I lose what little credibility I have...

    This evening, I will be mostly eating 5 bean salad with quinoa.

    It gets worse - it is Waitrose Organic Quinoa.

    In my defence, it was Wor Lass's choice, and she is a member of the Green Party.

    Tomorrow I'll have to visit Greggs to make amends.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,690
    RobD said:

    The only scenario in which we probably see an election within the year is next January. The UK gets a deal that looks acceptable in the surface, the economy isn't doing badly and the Tories call an election, hoping to ride all this to another majority.

    Otherwise, it’s a long time. Labour needs a dull centrist for this slog and that person probably is Sir Keir.

    Seems high risk to call another election when you have a majority of 80 already!
    I can't really envisage any scenario where it isn't 2024 given their majority. A planned reversion to the normal schedule of May subject to the Tories feeling that they are in a good position, with the backstop option to wait until December if they feel they need to buy time. They can amend/abolish the FTPA to their hearts content and it is hard to argue against that unless we want permanent December elections henceforth.
  • If FlyBe collapse, would the Belfast city airport get a new partner? If so, who would it be?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,825
    Hard to argue this isn't good news for Biden, though Sanders is also up 5% from the last poll by this pollster, so not too shabby for him either.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,825

    OK, here's where I lose what little credibility I have...

    This evening, I will be mostly eating 5 bean salad with quinoa.

    It gets worse - it is Waitrose Organic Quinoa.

    In my defence, it was Wor Lass's choice, and she is a member of the Green Party.

    Tomorrow I'll have to visit Greggs to make amends.

    I hear the vegan sausage rolls are great.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,790
    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Spectator:

    "Javid in part secured his position as Chancellor for some time to come by giving Johnson Christmas reading in the shape of an 18-page report on his ideas for levelling up the country."

    I'd think Boris was more of a 2 page exec summary kind of man.
    More like half a side of A4
    He did have 2 whole weeks on the beach to read it.
    I doubt that such matters were high on his agenda
    I now have a mental image of Boris Johnson, on the beach, dealing with other matters.

    It is a mental image I could well have done without. Even leaving aside the beached whale simile...
    All sorts of things seem to bring images you could do without to your mind. You must have a fertile imagination!
    Or is that phrase going to cause more problems, given the rest of the discussion?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    The only scenario in which we probably see an election within the year is next January. The UK gets a deal that looks acceptable in the surface, the economy isn't doing badly and the Tories call an election, hoping to ride all this to another majority.

    Otherwise, it’s a long time. Labour needs a dull centrist for this slog and that person probably is Sir Keir.

    Seems high risk to call another election when you have a majority of 80 already!
    Winning all those former Labour seats must have been a huge rush. I don't think it's the most likely course of action but don't underestimate the challenge of cementing those changes.
    Won't happen, Tory MPs are not going to risk their seats and Boris No 10 unless it looks like a 1997 or 1983 style landslide and probably not even then, they remember 2017 as much as 2019
    Also - could they afford it? Elections are very expensive.

    Admittedly, it might finally bankrupt Labour. But if it did so at the cost of ruining the Tories it might be considered a Pyrrhic victory.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 505
    stodge said:



    On what basis is Labour going to take the lead in that time period? The people who despised Labour's anti-patriotism, woke nonsense, and socialism in December 2019 are still going to despise it at the end of this year, so either Starmer ditches it wholesale or nothing much will change.

    Churning out all your anti-Labour rhetoric in a pointless distribe doesn't alter the fact politics is back to "normal" which means a Government doing things which not everybody is going to support. It also means small-scale problems becoming large-scale crises, a ministerial resignation perhaps and the general warp and weft of Government which erodes public support over time.

    Starmer, if elected, will be a far more formidable opponent than some on the Conservative side believe and I suspect re-gaining support in the North and Midlands will be high on his priority list. Once Brexit is delivered, some of the reason for those who went Conservative last month, will disappear and they will rightly start to ask just how much better they and their communities are doing from a Johnson Government.

    I may be wrong and Johnson, as a high-spending centralising social democrat, will prove quite popular (after all, everyone likes a bit of largesse their way) but will it last and what happens when the financial taps stop?

    What I suspect is that few of the almost 44% who voted Conservative will be taken in any time soon by a shiny new leader when all the cranks and crazies that disfigured the Corbyn years are going to still be around in the party and in the media. If all Labour's extreme economic and social policies remain intact, a strong jaw isn't going to cut it for anyone with more than couple of brain cells to rub together.

    As for Brexit disappearing as an issue, Brexit was only ever a proxy for a whole cluster of culture-war issues that are only going to increase in salience as the decade progresses. 'Brexit' is not just about Brexit - it's about every geographical, policy, and cultural polarity you can imagine, and that's not going away. If the Tories are smart, they will select the issues most productive in securing their new base and push them for all they're worth.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    Quincel said:

    Hard to argue this isn't good news for Biden, though Sanders is also up 5% from the last poll by this pollster, so not too shabby for him either.

    Bad for Buttigieg though he was leading Iowa before Christmas in most polls and is now 3rd
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180

    ydoethur said:

    eek said:

    kle4 said:

    Spectator:

    "Javid in part secured his position as Chancellor for some time to come by giving Johnson Christmas reading in the shape of an 18-page report on his ideas for levelling up the country."

    I'd think Boris was more of a 2 page exec summary kind of man.
    More like half a side of A4
    He did have 2 whole weeks on the beach to read it.
    I doubt that such matters were high on his agenda
    I now have a mental image of Boris Johnson, on the beach, dealing with other matters.

    It is a mental image I could well have done without. Even leaving aside the beached whale simile...
    All sorts of things seem to bring images you could do without to your mind. You must have a fertile imagination!
    Or is that phrase going to cause more problems, given the rest of the discussion?
    Well, it's not bad, but it's not as fertile as our esteemed PM...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,790
    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    The only scenario in which we probably see an election within the year is next January. The UK gets a deal that looks acceptable in the surface, the economy isn't doing badly and the Tories call an election, hoping to ride all this to another majority.

    Otherwise, it’s a long time. Labour needs a dull centrist for this slog and that person probably is Sir Keir.

    Seems high risk to call another election when you have a majority of 80 already!
    More like, 'seems utterly pointless.' If we were three years into a Parliament I could understand it, but not just twelve months.
    The public would smell a rat and not vote Tory!


  • Bloomberg 7-2 in hills.

    They should get some comedy awards.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180

    ydoethur said:

    RobD said:

    The only scenario in which we probably see an election within the year is next January. The UK gets a deal that looks acceptable in the surface, the economy isn't doing badly and the Tories call an election, hoping to ride all this to another majority.

    Otherwise, it’s a long time. Labour needs a dull centrist for this slog and that person probably is Sir Keir.

    Seems high risk to call another election when you have a majority of 80 already!
    More like, 'seems utterly pointless.' If we were three years into a Parliament I could understand it, but not just twelve months.
    The public would smell a rat and not vote Tory!
    I thought the whole point about Johnson was that he is a rat?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 983
    I’ve heard some laughable ideas in my time, but I’m not sure anything beats a suggestion that the Conservatives might call a General Election in a year! Might call into question the idea that pb.com is a place for serious political debate! ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108
    alex_ said:

    I’ve heard some laughable ideas in my time, but I’m not sure anything beats a suggestion that the Conservatives might call a General Election in a year! Might call into question the idea that pb.com is a place for serious political debate! ;)

    Hold on a second. I thought this was a place for serious discussions about the merits (or not) of pineapple on pizza? We're supposed to be debating politics? :o
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 10,671
    RobD said:

    alex_ said:

    I’ve heard some laughable ideas in my time, but I’m not sure anything beats a suggestion that the Conservatives might call a General Election in a year! Might call into question the idea that pb.com is a place for serious political debate! ;)

    Hold on a second. I thought this was a place for serious discussions about the merits (or not) of pineapple on pizza? We're supposed to be debating politics? :o
    Can you put 5 bean salad and quinoa on a pizza?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,165
    HYUFD said:

    Quincel said:

    Hard to argue this isn't good news for Biden, though Sanders is also up 5% from the last poll by this pollster, so not too shabby for him either.

    Bad for Buttigieg though he was leading Iowa before Christmas in most polls and is now 3rd
    For a university to publish a poll with 10 candidates, using numerous subsamples to draw conclusions about various age groups, on the basis of a total sample of 405 voters is a disgrace to their academic standing. People say Iowa is hard to poll, but really with that sort of sample even Pyongyang would be hard to poll.
  • alex_ said:

    I’ve heard some laughable ideas in my time, but I’m not sure anything beats a suggestion that the Conservatives might call a General Election in a year! Might call into question the idea that pb.com is a place for serious political debate! ;)

    Eh... I said I thought that the only way there might be an election in the medium term is when the deal goes through.

    When you combine testosterone and the urge to utter crush and humiliate your foes, clear thinking does occasionally go out the window.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 33,828

    OK, here's where I lose what little credibility I have...

    This evening, I will be mostly eating 5 bean salad with quinoa.

    It gets worse - it is Waitrose Organic Quinoa.

    In my defence, it was Wor Lass's choice, and she is a member of the Green Party.

    Tomorrow I'll have to visit Greggs to make amends.

    Vegan sausage rolls are highly recommended!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,180
    RobD said:

    alex_ said:

    I’ve heard some laughable ideas in my time, but I’m not sure anything beats a suggestion that the Conservatives might call a General Election in a year! Might call into question the idea that pb.com is a place for serious political debate! ;)

    Hold on a second. I thought this was a place for serious discussions about the merits (or not) of pineapple on pizza? We're supposed to be debating politics? :o
    Don't be silly.

    There are no merits to putting pineapple on pizza.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,397
    HYUFD said:
    Most employers would take exception to someone plonking a union flag in front of their desk (quite aside from the fact it makes you look like a tit)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,226
    HYUFD said:
    St Pauls and Westminster are two of the top four.

    That's exactly what you'd expect.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    HYUFD said:
    For which the quid pro quo is that the press leave them the fuck alone.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,108

    HYUFD said:
    Most employers would take exception to someone plonking a union flag in front of their desk (quite aside from the fact it makes you look like a tit)
    Most employers aren't parliaments!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635

    OK, here's where I lose what little credibility I have...

    This evening, I will be mostly eating 5 bean salad with quinoa.

    It gets worse - it is Waitrose Organic Quinoa.

    In my defence, it was Wor Lass's choice, and she is a member of the Green Party.

    Tomorrow I'll have to visit Greggs to make amends.

    A man of the people right enough (although the “wor lass” is a tad desperate)😀
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 505
    edited January 13
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    St Pauls and Westminster are two of the top four.

    That's exactly what you'd expect.
    Traditional British educational elite meets new Far Eastern educational elite...

    Peterhouse's only PM (Augustus FitzRoy, 3rd Duke of Grafton) was himself educated at Westminster, so it's nice to know some things don't change.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    St Pauls and Westminster are two of the top four.

    That's exactly what you'd expect.
    We were at an open day at Cambridge last summer. Not sure there weren’t more Chinese than Brits. But it’s a great export industry.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513
    Thank goodness we kept first past the post to allow the voters to kick out underperforming MPs.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 668


    If they win:
    Starmer - Uninteresting, boring, will foresniscally examine the government, no
    Philips - Shes the unknown. Shes the one that probably wont win, probably wont do any better than all the others. But she could. People seem to like the hooker hoops and the 'aufentic' working class brummie stuff. How true it is doesnt matter, it matters only she can pull it off.

    She could learn all the other stuff. She has plenty of time. If you have already got a bit of va va voom (and she has), mix in some intense NLP and speech training you can go far.

    Starmer

    Of course, it's possible over five years he might recover from that. Or more likely, the smell of that very particular stench of shit will follow him around for ever.
    In fairness to Starmer, the things that went wrong pretty
    Yes, assuming he becomes leader, I think he'll be fine on the anti-Semitism issue provided he acts swiftly and effectively when (or preferably before) the ECHR report is released. And I'm sure he will do so, to be fair, as would most of the other candidates except perhaps RLB.
    Except with RLB, problems on antisemitism are likely to be a slow burner. I think all will say the right things, overhaul processes, and probably sling out some of those responsible - from paid jobs if not the party. That will buy them goodwill. But the question Labour really needs to ask itself is how its party culture allowed all this to happen, whereby thousands upon thousands were OK with people like Corbyn running the party despite the overwhelming evidence against him, both personally and as a leader of an institution that failed beyond belief, as well as their total refusal to heed the pleas of both the Jewish community and their own Jewish MPs, some now bullied out. If whoever is leader doesn't convince members to have that dark night of the soul over what they tolerated, promoted, and enabled, the problem will reappear in another form due to the fertile ground for it in Labour. Starmer, Nandy or Phillips will obviously deal with it much better than the vile Corbyn - but it will still damage them if Labour are still having fights over this in 2021, even if this time the leader is on the right side rather than with the antisemites this time. Much like in the late '80s with those dubbed the looney left, if there's still a sizeable minority of the Labour membership who behave like cranks it will taint the whole organisation - even if the leader is a great opponent of it.
  • DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    For which the quid pro quo is that the press leave them the fuck alone.
    Do the Sussexes not know press coverage of non-royal celebrities can be even more intrusive?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:
    Most employers would take exception to someone plonking a union flag in front of their desk (quite aside from the fact it makes you look like a tit)
    Most employers aren't parliaments!
    The standing counsel for the Advocate General keeps a Union Jack at his desk in the library at Parliament House. And yes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:
    For which the quid pro quo is that the press leave them the fuck alone.
    Do the Sussexes not know press coverage of non-royal celebrities can be even more intrusive?
    Evidently not.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,635
    Alistair said:

    Thank goodness we kept first past the post to allow the voters to kick out underperforming MPs.
    Indeed. If we hadn’t this tit would still be an MP.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 739
    This thread has won an election via First past the post
This discussion has been closed.