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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation LAB leadership poll has RLB ahead and shakes up

SystemSystem Posts: 11,003
edited January 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation LAB leadership poll has RLB ahead and shakes up the betting

Survation LAB members’ poll for Labour LIst has Long-Bailey 42% Starmer 37% Jess Phillips 9% Lisa Nandy 7% This is very different from the YouGov members p

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  • Options
    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,283
    first
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    It’s not just for Labour List, it’s of Labour List readers. Handle with care!
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,283
    Wonder what made Lisa Nandy reject the Liberal Party which her grandfather backed for so long?

    Long-Bailey and Rayner, a dream ticket for the other parties.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,212
    Sixth like Burgon
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    RLB is a wally who won’t get anywhere.

    I expect Nandy to overtake her.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    SouthamObserver said:

    It’s not just for Labour List, it’s of Labour List readers. Handle with care!

    It’s a lot of bollocks, is what it is.
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    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    If labour elect long Bailey they may as well tell the electorate to go scr£w themselves.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    SouthamObserver said:

    It’s not just for Labour List, it’s of Labour List readers. Handle with care!

    Weighted and of Labour members yes but Yougov did the same and had Starmer ahead while Labour list has Long Bailey ahead
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,935
    https://twitter.com/OwenHalliday/status/1217499964194115585?s=20
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,001
    Hmm... On a self-selected database, you would really need weighting by political lean.
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    It’s not just for Labour List, it’s of Labour List readers. Handle with care!

    Weighted and of Labour members yes but Yougov did the same and had Starmer ahead while Labour list has Long Bailey ahead

    Weighting the Labour List readership is a tough task given how Corbyn-friendly it is. I guess it’s doable, but to put it in perspective 75% of LL readers backed Corbyn in 2015 and he got 59% of the vote. There will be non-Corbynistas on the databse but they’ll be a significant minority. That said, I know nothing about the mechanics of polling methodoligies. I just think this poll should be handled with care.

  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,614
    FPT

    @Sunil_Prasannan . Oh God Of Trains I pray you. Can I break my return journey over two or more days if I have an off-peak return ticket?
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    dr_spyn said:

    Wonder what made Lisa Nandy reject the Liberal Party which her grandfather backed for so long?

    Long-Bailey and Rayner, a dream ticket for the other parties.

    Rayner isn't that far left and is pragmatic, i.e. wanting to be in power to do anything to help disadvantaged people (like Phillips). So say the commentators on the FT Youtube channel covering the contest.

    A rare occasion on which I get exposed to any FT content, due to their paywall ....

    FPT
    'Credit cards and gambling are a hideous problem. Hideous.'

    Yes it's hideous for me that I won't be able to use one. I think I'm a non-addictive personality or some such phrase, so no risk of getting into trouble.

    The spread-betting companies allow betting on credit. That's even more convenient but it must be lethal if you're easily addicted to such activities.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
    SouthamObserver said:

    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    It’s not just for Labour List, it’s of Labour List readers. Handle with care!

    Weighted and of Labour members yes but Yougov did the same and had Starmer ahead while Labour list has Long Bailey ahead

    Weighting the Labour List readership is a tough task given how Corbyn-friendly it is. I guess it’s doable, but to put it in perspective 75% of LL readers backed Corbyn in 2015 and he got 59% of the vote. There will be non-Corbynistas on the databse but they’ll be a significant minority. That said, I know nothing about the mechanics of polling methodoligies. I just think this poll should be handled with care.

    It's undoubtedly a good poll for RLB but that's a fair point.
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    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    edited January 2020
    Deleted - misread the header.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,197
    viewcode said:

    FPT

    @Sunil_Prasannan . Oh God Of Trains I pray you. Can I break my return journey over two or more days if I have an off-peak return ticket?

    Return portions are valid for up to one month.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    viewcode said:

    FPT

    @Sunil_Prasannan . Oh God Of Trains I pray you. Can I break my return journey over two or more days if I have an off-peak return ticket?

    As a regular train user yes you can so long as it an open return, ie one that isn’t the same day return as the date as your outgoing journey.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,928
    EPG said:

    Hmm... On a self-selected database, you would really need weighting by political lean.

    It's done wonders for my book though - I made £50 on the volatility.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,243
    Thread by Chris Curtis of YouGov

    https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1217538163637395457?s=21
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,001
    eek said:

    EPG said:

    Hmm... On a self-selected database, you would really need weighting by political lean.

    It's done wonders for my book though - I made £50 on the volatility.
    Punishing volatility generators is the socially responsible thing to do.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    FPT

    @Sunil_Prasannan . Oh God Of Trains I pray you. Can I break my return journey over two or more days if I have an off-peak return ticket?

    Return portions are valid for up to one month.
    I keep wondering why you might have been banned with your current avatar.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,578
    viewcode said:

    FPT

    @Sunil_Prasannan . Oh God Of Trains I pray you. Can I break my return journey over two or more days if I have an off-peak return ticket?

    You can break the journey as many times as you like and spread the journey over multiple days. Just make sure you stick to off peak services within the validity of the ticket.

    Different off peak rules apply so best to check.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387
    Do all of Nandy's supporters post on here then
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/1217522995960393728?s=19
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Do all questions asked in a poll have to be shown in the full set of tables? If so, it doesn’t look like the respondents were asked about who they voted for in 2015 and 2016. However, I am pretty certain I did this poll and that those questions were asked.
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/15/keir-starmer-sets-out-vision-for-labour-to-win-back-power

    SKS outlines why he should win. It is not "Education, education, education" or "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime." It will go down well with his metro mates though."
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    ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    ralphmalph said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/15/keir-starmer-sets-out-vision-for-labour-to-win-back-power

    SKS outlines why he should win. It is not "Education, education, education" or "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime." It will go down well with his metro mates though."

    edit: Moral socialism must be an oxymoron. We are going to make people poorer and destroy their lives, but in a moral way." That must be where Chavez went wrong, the immoral barsteward.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,325
    Please let it be RLB.. Labour will be out for another 20 yrs...
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    https://twitter.com/mattsingh_/status/1217541054406316034?s=21
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,325
    Just re-read the basis of this poll Labourlist'ss database.. jeez...its about as reliable statistically as Brown and Balls neo endogenous growth theory.
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    partypoliticalorphanpartypoliticalorphan Posts: 308
    squareroot2 said:

    Just re-read the basis of this poll Labourlist'ss database.. jeez...its about as reliable statistically as Brown and Balls neo endogenous growth theory.

    Well it sifted me out at the beginning of the survey because I'm not a Labour member. Mind you, that's because I was truthful in my answers.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,885
    Have we been put away by over representation of the centrist view AGAIN?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
    Long Bailey 9-2 at Totesport is usable right now...
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,898
    Lisa very good on Andrew Neil.

    Has she got the big mo?
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    ralphmalph said:

    ralphmalph said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/15/keir-starmer-sets-out-vision-for-labour-to-win-back-power

    SKS outlines why he should win. It is not "Education, education, education" or "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime." It will go down well with his metro mates though."

    edit: Moral socialism must be an oxymoron. We are going to make people poorer and destroy their lives, but in a moral way." That must be where Chavez went wrong, the immoral barsteward.
    He has probably read Gorge Orwell 1984, and thought it was a 'how to guide'

    war is peace
    freedom is slavery
    ignorance is strength
    socialism is Moral
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,079
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Do all of Nandy's supporters post on here then

    It would appear so.
    😕
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
    Anabobazina said:

    Lisa very good on Andrew Neil.

    Has she got the big mo?

    Doubtful, this is betwixt Starmer and Long odds against.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    If RBL wins the Labour party is finished for a generation, if not longer.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    squareroot2 said:

    Please let it be RLB.. Labour will be out for another 20 yrs...

    Yep. Bye Labour. Thanks for all the laughs.
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,318
    As Singh's figures show, Labour List (IMO the best Labour site, generally unbiased and quite witty as well as well-informed) has a fairly good reflection of the membership, though slightly tilted to the left. I'm surprised RLB did quite so well, but the earlier poll certainly reflected Starmer's greater name recognition before the contest started. Rayner streets ahead for deputy, as I said this morning, and Nandy is the Labour Buttigieg - well-liked by pundits, but not really attracting much member interest.

    Given that RLB hasn't really started campaigning yet, Starmer will find this poll worrying, though I think the new members/supporters are more likely to back him.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,325
    edited January 2020
    NickPalmer said:

    As Singh's figures show, Labour List (IMO the best Labour site, generally unbiased and quite witty as well as well-informed) has a fairly good reflection of the membership, though slightly tilted to the left. I'm surprised RLB did quite so well, but the earlier poll certainly reflected Starmer's greater name recognition before the contest started. Rayner streets ahead for deputy, as I said this morning, and Nandy is the Labour Buttigieg - well-liked by pundits, but not really attracting much member interest.

    Given that RLB hasn't really started campaigning yet, Starmer will find this poll worrying, though I think the new members/supporters are more likely to back him.

    It doesn't matter what the site presents in terms of output whether biased or otherwiswe, but it DOES matter who the subscribers are. (Let's not forget its beginning with the complete arse that is and was Derek Draper).
    Current subscribers could be anyone and cannot possibly truly represent current Labour membership. If perchance it actually does. God help the Labour Party.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,885
    Well played @MikeSmithson for suggesting Keir Starmer was a lay on the previous thread header
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,491
    Pulpstar said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Lisa very good on Andrew Neil.

    Has she got the big mo?

    Doubtful, this is betwixt Starmer and Long odds against.
    2 months to campaign.

    My book does not look good on this.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,614
    @Sunil_Prasannan: "Return portions are valid for up to one month."
    @TheScreamingEagles: "...yes you can so long as it an open return, ie one that isn’t the same day return as the date as your outgoing journey"
    @SandyRentool: "You can break the journey as many times as you like and spread the journey over multiple days. Just make sure you stick to...the validity of the ticket. Different off peak rules apply so best to check."

    Thank you all for your advice, it was kind of you
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    kicorsekicorse Posts: 431
    NickPalmer said:

    As Singh's figures show, Labour List (IMO the best Labour site, generally unbiased and quite witty as well as well-informed) has a fairly good reflection of the membership, though slightly tilted to the left. I'm surprised RLB did quite so well, but the earlier poll certainly reflected Starmer's greater name recognition before the contest started. Rayner streets ahead for deputy, as I said this morning, and Nandy is the Labour Buttigieg - well-liked by pundits, but not really attracting much member interest.

    Given that RLB hasn't really started campaigning yet, Starmer will find this poll worrying, though I think the new members/supporters are more likely to back him.

    Thanks. Not what I wanted to read, but better to have delusions shattered sooner rather than later.

    In that case, do you find it strange that the odds (especially on Nandy, out from 7.5 to 9) haven't shifted more?
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,898
    viewcode said:

    @Sunil_Prasannan: "Return portions are valid for up to one month."
    @TheScreamingEagles: "...yes you can so long as it an open return, ie one that isn’t the same day return as the date as your outgoing journey"
    @SandyRentool: "You can break the journey as many times as you like and spread the journey over multiple days. Just make sure you stick to...the validity of the ticket. Different off peak rules apply so best to check."

    Thank you all for your advice, it was kind of you

    When it’s so mind bogglingly complex, is it any wonder the public want to give the railways a good kicking?

    Here’s an idea, set a peak and non peak fare for any journey, and let people use that how they like, when they like.
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    dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,283
    edited January 2020
    LN trolling RLB.

    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1217394168168951808

    Made me smile.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,898
    Why didn’t Survation just poll Labour members (for LabourList) instead of polling Labour List ‘readers’? Seems a bonkers set of parameters, and is as clear as mud.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    NickPalmer said:


    Given that RLB hasn't really started campaigning yet, Starmer will find this poll worrying, though I think the new members/supporters are more likely to back him.

    You are assuming that RLB campaigning will help her cause. Hmm...
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    BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    dr_spyn said:

    LN trolling RLB.

    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1217394168168951808

    Made me smile.

    actual LOL at calling that "dodgy Tory election tactics". Get your sites sorted.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,898
    Was the Rebecca Large-Baileys url ever anything to do with said candidate, or has someone just bought it and redirected it to Lisa’s site for (fairly limited) shit and giggles?
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,898
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,952
    edited January 2020
    I thought they 'defeated divisive nationalists - in places like Catalonia' by cracking granny skulls and imprisoning elected politicians. I'm sure that's not what Nandy meant, right?

    https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/1217552861141311489?s=20
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,895
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    NickPalmer said:


    Given that RLB hasn't really started campaigning yet, Starmer will find this poll worrying, though I think the new members/supporters are more likely to back him.

    You are assuming that RLB campaigning will help her cause. Hmm...
    No, but Rayner campaigning may well help her.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
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    CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    I will stick with my Starmer bet.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,898
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Fully agreed.

    What’s your assessment of her chances of winning the Unite endorsement? And, if she does, it’s effect on her chances of victory?
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    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
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    dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    Theuniondivvie said:

    I thought they 'defeated divisive nationalists - in places like Catalonia' by cracking granny skulls and imprisoning elected politicians. I'm sure that's not what Nandy meant, right?

    https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/1217552861141311489?s=20

    Aren't (some) Catalan nationalists currently propping up the socialists in Spain?
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,707
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    NickPalmer said:


    Given that RLB hasn't really started campaigning yet, Starmer will find this poll worrying, though I think the new members/supporters are more likely to back him.

    You are assuming that RLB campaigning will help her cause. Hmm...
    If only three get onto the ballot: Starmer, RLB and Nandy, then there is a chance that Nandy gets some first preferences which would otherwise have gone to Starmer. But even if this happens and RLB consequently leads at first preference stage I can`t see her exceeding 50% of first preferences to take her over the line.

    Despite this poll, I still fancy Starmer as I think second preferences will favour him - so having laid him this morning at about 1.48 I am now backing him at 1.68.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    dodrade said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    I thought they 'defeated divisive nationalists - in places like Catalonia' by cracking granny skulls and imprisoning elected politicians. I'm sure that's not what Nandy meant, right?

    https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/1217552861141311489?s=20

    Aren't (some) Catalan nationalists currently propping up the socialists in Spain?

    They are. Unionist parties having won most votes in Catalonia in the November 2019 general election.

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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,707
    kinabalu said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Do all of Nandy's supporters post on here then

    It would appear so.
    😕
    I was struck by NickPalmer`s comment earlier that he knows no-one who is going to vote for Nandy. (Other than you Kinabalu.)
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,952
    dodrade said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    I thought they 'defeated divisive nationalists - in places like Catalonia' by cracking granny skulls and imprisoning elected politicians. I'm sure that's not what Nandy meant, right?

    https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/1217552861141311489?s=20

    Aren't (some) Catalan nationalists currently propping up the socialists in Spain?
    I think only because the Catalan nats abstained.

    I'm absolutely sure Nandy didn't mean she'd do a deal with the SNP.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    Gabs3 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
    Both are complete donkeys, neither could run a bath.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Gabs3 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
    One would hope that being white wouldn't count against him, given that the selectorate pays lip-service to fighting prejudice.
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    state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,416
    malcolmg said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
    Both are complete donkeys, neither could run a bath.
    Speaking of running, I watched the local half marathon at the weekend, one of the runners was dressed as a chicken , another an egg. I thought it would be interesting to see the finish!
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,002
    Theuniondivvie said:

    I thought they 'defeated divisive nationalists - in places like Catalonia' by cracking granny skulls and imprisoning elected politicians. I'm sure that's not what Nandy meant, right?

    https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/1217552861141311489?s=20

    She wants to get HYUFD to defect.
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    TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,043
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    I will stick with my Starmer bet.

    If Keir 🐻 doesn't win, there might not be confidence for the next leader.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    contrarian said:

    If labour elect long Bailey they may as well tell the electorate to go scr£w themselves.

    I rate that 10/10.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Fully agreed.

    What’s your assessment of her chances of winning the Unite endorsement? And, if she does, it’s effect on her chances of victory?
    Dunno on Unite. But if she did get their endorsement, it would be a game changer.
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,898
    state_go_away said:

    malcolmg said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
    Both are complete donkeys, neither could run a bath.
    Speaking of running, I watched the local half marathon at the weekend, one of the runners was dressed as a chicken , another an egg. I thought it would be interesting to see the finish!
    One can almost hear the discussion at the stewards’ inquiry.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,748
    malcolmg said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
    Both are complete donkeys, neither could run a bath.
    Would you have Nandy as the better of the two? (I would)

    If the ability to run a bath is key then Labour will be a smelly lot for a long while.

    Their next leader is important though. As a Tory I just want to see the least dangerous of them. I think that's Nandy. She's also the most likely to actually win a GE, but I can take that risk in that there won't be the frothing lunacy of Long-Bailey (much improved from Corbyn though) or the weird sleaziness and not quite definable thing that is Starmer.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    state_go_away said:

    malcolmg said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
    Both are complete donkeys, neither could run a bath.
    Speaking of running, I watched the local half marathon at the weekend, one of the runners was dressed as a chicken , another an egg. I thought it would be interesting to see the finish!
    was it the chicken or the egg
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Stocky said:

    kinabalu said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Do all of Nandy's supporters post on here then

    It would appear so.
    😕
    I was struck by NickPalmer`s comment earlier that he knows no-one who is going to vote for Nandy. (Other than you Kinabalu.)
    But then he knew lots of "Tories for Palmer".

    *titter*
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Fully agreed.

    What’s your assessment of her chances of winning the Unite endorsement? And, if she does, it’s effect on her chances of victory?

    Long-Bailey is nailed on for Unite. Nandy looks like she’ll get the GMB.

  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    BannedinnParis said:

    dr_spyn said:

    LN trolling RLB.

    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1217394168168951808

    Made me smile.

    actual LOL at calling that "dodgy Tory election tactics". Get your sites sorted.
    Nandy to win with a majority of 80?
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,952
    state_go_away said:

    malcolmg said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
    Both are complete donkeys, neither could run a bath.
    Speaking of running, I watched the local half marathon at the weekend, one of the runners was dressed as a chicken , another an egg. I thought it would be interesting to see the finish!
    A bit of a scramble at the finish?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Theuniondivvie said:

    state_go_away said:

    malcolmg said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
    Both are complete donkeys, neither could run a bath.
    Speaking of running, I watched the local half marathon at the weekend, one of the runners was dressed as a chicken , another an egg. I thought it would be interesting to see the finish!
    A bit of a scramble at the finish?
    Go, on, admit it - you poached that gag.....
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Anabobazina said:

    Lisa very good on Andrew Neil.

    Has she got the big mo?

    IDK, but I think there's a lot of wishful thinking on Nandy. She's made more of a splash than others have in this early period, but it just feels like the fundamentals favour RLB and Starmer too much. Maybe good union endorsements will change that.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Anabobazina said:

    state_go_away said:

    malcolmg said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
    Both are complete donkeys, neither could run a bath.
    Speaking of running, I watched the local half marathon at the weekend, one of the runners was dressed as a chicken , another an egg. I thought it would be interesting to see the finish!
    One can almost hear the discussion at the stewards’ inquiry.
    "And the winner - by an egg..."
  • Options
    TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,043
    MarqueeMark said:

    BannedinnParis said:

    dr_spyn said:

    LN trolling RLB.

    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1217394168168951808

    Made me smile.

    actual LOL at calling that "dodgy Tory election tactics". Get your sites sorted.
    Nandy to win with a majority of 80?
    80 chickens or 80 eggs?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    malcolmg said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
    Both are complete donkeys, neither could run a bath.
    Well of course not, how could a donkey be expected to do that?

    Phillips at least has an interesting style, and Nandy has been semi-bold in some of her comments, but I'd think the chances of them being humiliated is higher than doing surprisingly well.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,898
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Fully agreed.

    What’s your assessment of her chances of winning the Unite endorsement? And, if she does, it’s effect on her chances of victory?
    Dunno on Unite. But if she did get their endorsement, it would be a game changer.
    That’s my view too, hence why she is value IF one thinks she will get their endorsement. My source at Labour said Unite are seriously considering it. Nandy’s pro-Trident position won’t harm her: Unite is very strongly pro renewal.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    dr_spyn said:

    LN trolling RLB.

    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1217394168168951808

    Made me smile.

    I thought she'd asked whoever did it to redirect it to the correct site?
  • Options
    dodradedodrade Posts: 595
    Theuniondivvie said:

    dodrade said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    I thought they 'defeated divisive nationalists - in places like Catalonia' by cracking granny skulls and imprisoning elected politicians. I'm sure that's not what Nandy meant, right?

    https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/1217552861141311489?s=20

    Aren't (some) Catalan nationalists currently propping up the socialists in Spain?
    I think only because the Catalan nats abstained.

    I'm absolutely sure Nandy didn't mean she'd do a deal with the SNP.
    A nod's as good as a wink. An informal deal (or even a mere "understanding") with the SNP would probably be along the same lines as long as Labour were the largest party and the Tories couldn't block a Queen's speech without help.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,898
    SouthamObserver said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Fully agreed.

    What’s your assessment of her chances of winning the Unite endorsement? And, if she does, it’s effect on her chances of victory?

    Long-Bailey is nailed on for Unite. Nandy looks like she’ll get the GMB.

    Lisa will get GMB. I wouldn’t say it’s nailed on that Becky gets Unite. Probable, but not nailed on.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    squareroot2 said:

    Just re-read the basis of this poll Labourlist'ss database.. jeez...its about as reliable statistically as Brown and Balls neo endogenous growth theory.

    No more Boom! Boom! (sorry Basil)

    No more bust (yet another bloody flat-chested male leader....)
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,914
    Anabobazina said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Fully agreed.

    What’s your assessment of her chances of winning the Unite endorsement? And, if she does, it’s effect on her chances of victory?

    Long-Bailey is nailed on for Unite. Nandy looks like she’ll get the GMB.

    Lisa will get GMB. I wouldn’t say it’s nailed on that Becky gets Unite. Probable, but not nailed on.

    If Nandy gets Unite it would be huge. It would show the hard left is in a state of total civil war.

  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    Gabs3 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
    I'll let you into a little secret: despite what everyone says no-one gives a shit about the gender of the candidate.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,358
    I don't particularly like Starmer (like everyone else, I'm a Nandy-man), but up until now he's always looked to me to have the advantage that he looks like a Prime Minister. But! It now appears he's very short!
    We now that the tallest candidate always wins in the US Presidential contests. Is the same true of British elections? Neil Kinnock, as I remember, was absolutely tiny - like a normal Welshman, but to 4/5 scale.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,614
    MarqueeMark said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    state_go_away said:

    malcolmg said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips have both been compelling and interesting voices. They are also both principled people that stuck to their positions and spoke up for them. Starmer meanwhile is white, pale and stale. The only time he stood up to Corbyn was to force him into a Brexit position that worsened the scale of defeat at the election.
    Both are complete donkeys, neither could run a bath.
    Speaking of running, I watched the local half marathon at the weekend, one of the runners was dressed as a chicken , another an egg. I thought it would be interesting to see the finish!
    A bit of a scramble at the finish?
    Go, on, admit it - you poached that gag.....
    That's en-oeuf
  • Options
    speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    The Labour leadership contest is still very early, we don't even know the final candidates, there hasn't been one single debate yet.

    On the contrary this proposal is far more important, it if happened in 1775 we would have escaped a lot of misery :
    https://twitter.com/sebwhale/status/1217537436508573696
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,898
    SouthamObserver said:

    Anabobazina said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Fully agreed.

    What’s your assessment of her chances of winning the Unite endorsement? And, if she does, it’s effect on her chances of victory?

    Long-Bailey is nailed on for Unite. Nandy looks like she’ll get the GMB.

    Lisa will get GMB. I wouldn’t say it’s nailed on that Becky gets Unite. Probable, but not nailed on.

    If Nandy gets Unite it would be huge. It would show the hard left is in a state of total civil war.

    I must admit I know not the actual mechanism for the Unite nomination. Does its Executive Council actually wield any power, or does Red Len simply decide and the rest is window dressing?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    SouthamObserver said:

    Anabobazina said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Mind you, Sir Keir's absurd motherhood-and-apple-pie piece in the Guardian, full of contradictions, can hardly help his cause either.

    Lisa has been by far the best of the candidates so far. Arguably helped by lack of pressure (no one expects her to actually win), but on the other hand she was first to the Andrew Neil grilling, which does her great credit.
    Yes, she's been saying some interesting things (as has Jess Phillips). But that's not enough.
    Fully agreed.

    What’s your assessment of her chances of winning the Unite endorsement? And, if she does, it’s effect on her chances of victory?

    Long-Bailey is nailed on for Unite. Nandy looks like she’ll get the GMB.

    Lisa will get GMB. I wouldn’t say it’s nailed on that Becky gets Unite. Probable, but not nailed on.

    If Nandy gets Unite it would be huge. It would show the hard left is in a state of total civil war.

    If Nandy gets Unite, then it is kaboom.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    Cookie said:

    I don't particularly like Starmer (like everyone else, I'm a Nandy-man), but up until now he's always looked to me to have the advantage that he looks like a Prime Minister. But! It now appears he's very short!
    We now that the tallest candidate always wins in the US Presidential contests. Is the same true of British elections? Neil Kinnock, as I remember, was absolutely tiny - like a normal Welshman, but to 4/5 scale.

    How tall is he? Funny how it can be hard to tell with some people without someone next to them, like Danny Alexander.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,916
    HYUFD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    It’s not just for Labour List, it’s of Labour List readers. Handle with care!

    Weighted and of Labour members yes but Yougov did the same and had Starmer ahead while Labour list has Long Bailey ahead
    The difference is that YouGov can look at its entire panel of 600,000 people in the UK, and can select the 2,000 who are Labour members. They have a fairly random sample.

    By contrast Survation just has the list of LabourList members. This might be a larger pool, but it's highly unlikely to be representative of Labour members as a whole.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,609
    speedy2 said:

    The Labour leadership contest is still very early, we don't even know the final candidates, there hasn't been one single debate yet.

    On the contrary this proposal is far more important, it if happened in 1775 we would have escaped a lot of misery :
    https://twitter.com/sebwhale/status/1217537436508573696

    Don't the french in essence operate such a system now? At first glance it seems appealing.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,898
    Cookie said:

    I don't particularly like Starmer (like everyone else, I'm a Nandy-man), but up until now he's always looked to me to have the advantage that he looks like a Prime Minister. But! It now appears he's very short!
    We now that the tallest candidate always wins in the US Presidential contests. Is the same true of British elections? Neil Kinnock, as I remember, was absolutely tiny - like a normal Welshman, but to 4/5 scale.

    How tall is he?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,140
    kle4 said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Lisa very good on Andrew Neil.

    Has she got the big mo?

    IDK, but I think there's a lot of wishful thinking on Nandy. She's made more of a splash than others have in this early period, but it just feels like the fundamentals favour RLB and Starmer too much. Maybe good union endorsements will change that.
    Nandy has nothing to lose. She is having such a good campaign that no winner will dare keep her out of a big shadow post.
This discussion has been closed.