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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The SNP’s Brexit conundrum

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited January 29 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The SNP’s Brexit conundrum

Drink, says the Porter in the ‘Scottish Play’, is an equivocator with lechery: “it provokes the desire, but it takes away the performance…. it sets him on, and it takes him off; it persuades him, and disheartens him”.  So it may prove with Brexit and Scottish Independence.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 16,271
    An interesting read.

    But slightly surprised that an admirer of Samuel Pepys should use the phrase 'slam dunk'.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 33,856
    edited January 29
    RobD said:

    "We send £350m to the EU each week.
    Let's give it to civil engineering contractors instead."

    Only for five years though. ;)
    £106 billion is just over 10 years' worth of NET contributions to the EU!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,476
    Just catching up with CH4 news, I see their narrative has moved on from Stop Brexit to Rejoin.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 13,787
    Bat shit Communism again today I see with Northern
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,476
    Was the Nigel Farage documentary on CH4 this evening worth watching?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    edited January 29
    The significance of Brexit for Scottish independence does not exclusively relate to the pros and cons of a land border on the Tweed. Unless England and Scotland are both in the EU, that customs border is priced into the Scottish Independence issue.

    The real significance is the divergence of political opinion in Scotland from England, of which Brexit is just one of many obvious issues. If Scots are going to be ignored then they will want and have their Independence, and I don't blame them at all. The divergence between rUK and Scottish opinion is now too much to be possible in one country for long.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201

    Was the Nigel Farage documentary on CH4 this evening worth watching?

    Yes. It was very interesting because they did not use leading questions, they just let him give his analysis of the events that had occurred.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    edited January 29
    Newsnight reporting on big increase in Lab membership. Corbyn's local party up 500.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    25% increase.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    Newsnight reporting on big increase in Lab membership. Corbyn's local party up 500.

    Corbynism sweeping the nation?
  • Was the Nigel Farage documentary on CH4 this evening worth watching?

    Holocaust worth a watch, Chris Tarrant presents.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    RobD said:

    Newsnight reporting on big increase in Lab membership. Corbyn's local party up 500.

    Corbynism sweeping the nation?
    New members are breaking for Starmer.

    Sense breaking out on the Left?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,476

    Was the Nigel Farage documentary on CH4 this evening worth watching?

    Yes. It was very interesting because they did not use leading questions, they just let him give his analysis of the events that had occurred.
    I just seen the first part and interesting to see Farage already call the whole no-deal die in a ditch move exactly correctly.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867

    Was the Nigel Farage documentary on CH4 this evening worth watching?

    He was the next US ambassador once.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    Was the Nigel Farage documentary on CH4 this evening worth watching?

    He was the next US ambassador once.

    We'll need an EU ambassador soon, won't we? :smiley:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,476

    Austerity is over.

    twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1222609173797646337?s=21

    What austerity?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    More lunacy from Bozo .

    I hope those losing their jobs can feed the family on sovereignty!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    Thornberry is just days away from lift off, I tell you.


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,476
    edited January 29
    Huawei denies German report it colluded with Chinese intelligence

    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-usa-huawei/huawei-denies-german-report-it-colluded-with-chinese-intelligence-idUKKBN1ZS194

    -------------

    Sophisticated hackers infiltrated U.N. networks in Geneva and Vienna last year in an apparent espionage operation that top officials at the world body kept largely quiet. The hackers’ identity and the extent of the data they obtained are not known.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/leaked-report-shows-united-nations-suffered-hack/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    RobD said:

    Was the Nigel Farage documentary on CH4 this evening worth watching?

    He was the next US ambassador once.

    We'll need an EU ambassador soon, won't we? :smiley:
    Tim Martin is in the frame I gather.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867


    Goodbye Len and Karie, thanks for everything, its been a blast...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,687
    edited January 29
    Foxy said:

    The significance of Brexit for Scottish independence does not exclusively relate to the pros and cons of a land border on the Tweed. Unless England and Scotland are both in the EU, that customs border is priced into the Scottish Independence issue.

    The real significance is the divergence of political opinion in Scotland from England, of which Brexit is just one of many obvious issues. If Scots are going to be ignored then they will want and have their Independence, and I don't blame them at all. The divergence between rUK and Scottish opinion is now too much to be possible in one country for long.

    That divergence also feeds in to the question of how long a political 'generation' is. Figure that since the 2014 referendum, Scotland may have had no fewer than SIX* national level votes in which, if you applied the rules in play in each of those locally to Scotland**, the SNP or their viewpoint strongly held sway, often in divergence from the rest of the UK.

    The argument that all those votes indeed constitute a political generation is one that can well be made.

    * 3 GEs, 2 Holyrood, Brexit referendum
    ** If we're being strict on the rules of the game, 4 of these were UK wide but, never mind, politicians are uncommonly fond of saying that, by the rules of hockey a Mo Salah goal should have been disallowed, or similar, so let's set the argument in that spirit.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,476
    Farage and Big Dom aren't very good buddies are they....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    CatMan said:
    However will people manage. :o
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 741
    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    However will people manage. :o
    Well if you've got a pre-existing health condition, not very well.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,174

    25% increase.

    My constituency is up exactly 30%. The surge has stopped now so they were obviously joining to take part in the vote. And yes, I assume they are mostly not far left, as they'd have joined before if they were. It's not obvious which of Nandy and Starmer are further left, though in general, the campaign has been remarkably policy-light.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,935
    edited January 29
    EU roaming charges again is going to be crap.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    CatMan said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    However will people manage. :o
    Well if you've got a pre-existing health condition, not very well.
    Sounds like they'll have to get insurance to cover the cost of any hospital stays while abroad?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,935
    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    However will people manage. :o
    Well if you've got a pre-existing health condition, not very well.
    Sounds like they'll have to get insurance to cover the cost of any hospital stays while abroad?
    You do realize that getting health insurance for pre-existing conditions is actually quite difficult?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867

    EU roaming charges again is going to be crap.

    Red herring?

    "Of course, just because the operators might be allowed to reintroduce roaming charges, it does not necessarily mean that they would do so."

    BBC
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 523

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    However will people manage. :o
    Well if you've got a pre-existing health condition, not very well.
    Sounds like they'll have to get insurance to cover the cost of any hospital stays while abroad?
    You do realize that getting health insurance for pre-existing conditions is actually quite difficult?
    and/ or expensive
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    edited January 29

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    However will people manage. :o
    Well if you've got a pre-existing health condition, not very well.
    Sounds like they'll have to get insurance to cover the cost of any hospital stays while abroad?
    You do realize that getting health insurance for pre-existing conditions is actually quite difficult?
    Depends on the severity of the pre-existing condition. And if you are so at risk of falling ill, it begs the question of whether traveling is wise or not regardless of whether insurance is required.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    I've taken a nibble on Bloomberg at 7.

    Perhaps I need more rest. :smiley:

    Night all.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,935
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    However will people manage. :o
    Well if you've got a pre-existing health condition, not very well.
    Sounds like they'll have to get insurance to cover the cost of any hospital stays while abroad?
    You do realize that getting health insurance for pre-existing conditions is actually quite difficult?
    Depends on the severity of the pre-existing condition. And if you are so at risk of falling ill, it begs the question of whether traveling is wise or not regardless of whether insurance is required.
    I have Crohn’s Disease and find it very difficult to get health insurance. In reality I’m very unlikely to ever need it, it’s just if I do it might be expensive.

    But I should just not travel. Got it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    However will people manage. :o
    Well if you've got a pre-existing health condition, not very well.
    Sounds like they'll have to get insurance to cover the cost of any hospital stays while abroad?
    You do realize that getting health insurance for pre-existing conditions is actually quite difficult?
    Depends on the severity of the pre-existing condition. And if you are so at risk of falling ill, it begs the question of whether traveling is wise or not regardless of whether insurance is required.
    I have Crohn’s Disease and find it very difficult to get health insurance. In reality I’m very unlikely to ever need it, it’s just if I do it might be expensive.

    But I should just not travel. Got it.
    If the condition is manageable and there is low risk of needing medical attention it shouldn't be expensive to get insurance?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,935
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    However will people manage. :o
    Well if you've got a pre-existing health condition, not very well.
    Sounds like they'll have to get insurance to cover the cost of any hospital stays while abroad?
    You do realize that getting health insurance for pre-existing conditions is actually quite difficult?
    Depends on the severity of the pre-existing condition. And if you are so at risk of falling ill, it begs the question of whether traveling is wise or not regardless of whether insurance is required.
    I have Crohn’s Disease and find it very difficult to get health insurance. In reality I’m very unlikely to ever need it, it’s just if I do it might be expensive.

    But I should just not travel. Got it.
    If the condition is manageable and there is low risk of needing medical attention it shouldn't be expensive to get insurance?
    Well it is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    However will people manage. :o
    Well if you've got a pre-existing health condition, not very well.
    Sounds like they'll have to get insurance to cover the cost of any hospital stays while abroad?
    You do realize that getting health insurance for pre-existing conditions is actually quite difficult?
    Depends on the severity of the pre-existing condition. And if you are so at risk of falling ill, it begs the question of whether traveling is wise or not regardless of whether insurance is required.
    I have Crohn’s Disease and find it very difficult to get health insurance. In reality I’m very unlikely to ever need it, it’s just if I do it might be expensive.

    But I should just not travel. Got it.
    If the condition is manageable and there is low risk of needing medical attention it shouldn't be expensive to get insurance?
    Well it is.
    It would be interesting to see what the typical costs are. It sounds like you are being ripped off if the chance of you needing attention is so low, yet you are being charged a lot.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 100

    EU roaming charges again is going to be crap.

    Red herring?

    "Of course, just because the operators might be allowed to reintroduce roaming charges, it does not necessarily mean that they would do so."

    BBC
    Or maybe there could be consumer choice. I would be happy to have roaming charges on my phone bill, if that made the monthly cost cheaper, as I don't roam with it. Currently I'm subsidising those who roam, as I'm having to have (and pay for) that perk even though I don't want it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,155
    That was quick work. Brendan will be absolutely RAGING.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    theProle said:

    EU roaming charges again is going to be crap.

    Red herring?

    "Of course, just because the operators might be allowed to reintroduce roaming charges, it does not necessarily mean that they would do so."

    BBC
    Or maybe there could be consumer choice. I would be happy to have roaming charges on my phone bill, if that made the monthly cost cheaper, as I don't roam with it. Currently I'm subsidising those who roam, as I'm having to have (and pay for) that perk even though I don't want it.
    Privileges enjoyed by the middle classes and paid for by the taxes of the poorest? You must have been reading the Labour manifesto. :)
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    It will be interesting to see the stats after a decade or so. The two most popular destinations for emigrating Brits, Australia and the US, both have onerous visa requirements.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    It will be interesting to see the stats after a decade or so. The two most popular destinations for emigrating Brits, Australia and the US, both have onerous visa requirements.
    People are used to those onerous visa requirements . And that’s the difference , many in the UK I don’t think realize that’s going to be the same now for the EU unless Johnson changes his stance which I can’t see happening .
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    nico67 said:

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    It will be interesting to see the stats after a decade or so. The two most popular destinations for emigrating Brits, Australia and the US, both have onerous visa requirements.
    People are used to those onerous visa requirements . And that’s the difference , many in the UK I don’t think realize that’s going to be the same now for the EU unless Johnson changes his stance which I can’t see happening .
    It'd be interesting to see polling numbers on this. I suspect those who haven't heard about the end of freedom of movement are very few indeed, and those who would take advantage of it tend to be on the more educated/wealthier side, so even less likely not to be aware of it.

    The yearly holiday to the EU will be unaffected bar a visa waiver like the the US or Australia.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    All very interesting but the winning Tory manifesto made clear indyref2 would be banned for the full 5 year term of a Tory majority government and Boris won that majority (which he did not have at the time of his 'die in a ditch' comment), so will stick to it as he has made clear and refuse to allow an indyref2 even if the SNP win a majority at the 2021 Holyrood elections.

    This is a clear distinguishing factor from the Labour Party and their likely next leader Sir Keir Starmer as this tweet from the SCons today affirms
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited January 30
    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    FOM will be replaced by a points system to reduce low skilled EU immigration, something even 50% of Remainers support. High skilled immigration and travel to and from the EU is unlikely to be much affected, you already need a passport to go to an EU country anyway as we never joined Schengen.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/04/leave-voters-back-migration-of-skilled-eu-workers-poll
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 2,200

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    However will people manage. :o
    Well if you've got a pre-existing health condition, not very well.
    Sounds like they'll have to get insurance to cover the cost of any hospital stays while abroad?
    You do realize that getting health insurance for pre-existing conditions is actually quite difficult?
    Depends on the severity of the pre-existing condition. And if you are so at risk of falling ill, it begs the question of whether traveling is wise or not regardless of whether insurance is required.
    I have Crohn’s Disease and find it very difficult to get health insurance. In reality I’m very unlikely to ever need it, it’s just if I do it might be expensive.

    But I should just not travel. Got it.
    If the condition is manageable and there is low risk of needing medical attention it shouldn't be expensive to get insurance?
    Well it is.
    I've never had problems getting travel insurance for colitis - obviously it's slightly more expensive than normal but not massively, even for the US. Admittedly this was all pre-surgery, but I had a chat with my insurers fairly recently and they seemed to think that wouldn't impact things too much once I was stable, and obviously travelling prior to that isn't recommended.

    I wouldn't have thought Crohn's was much different, although obviously depends somewhat on the severity of the condition since I understand Crohn's has a lot of variance.

    Crohn's & Colitis UK I think used to have some information about "preferred suppliers" who were more likely to provide reasonable premiums. I can't find this on their website anymore, but may be worth asking them. In either case, the best cover is unlikely to be found via an aggregator site.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:

    RobD said:

    CatMan said:
    However will people manage. :o
    Well if you've got a pre-existing health condition, not very well.
    Sounds like they'll have to get insurance to cover the cost of any hospital stays while abroad?
    You do realize that getting health insurance for pre-existing conditions is actually quite difficult?
    Depends on the severity of the pre-existing condition. And if you are so at risk of falling ill, it begs the question of whether traveling is wise or not regardless of whether insurance is required.
    If another country is cheaper and/or has better surgical skills, then yes traveling is wise. Contrary to common wisdom, UK medical and surgical options are not actually very good at everything. In several cases the quality of treatment abroad is so much better than UK stuff the cost of travel is justified. If you ever have a large family gathering talk to the iller attendees and you'll be surprised how many have iatrogenic illnesses (eg @malcolmg 's wife)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627
    edited January 30
    Foxy said:

    The significance of Brexit for Scottish independence does not exclusively relate to the pros and cons of a land border on the Tweed. Unless England and Scotland are both in the EU, that customs border is priced into the Scottish Independence issue.

    The real significance is the divergence of political opinion in Scotland from England, of which Brexit is just one of many obvious issues. If Scots are going to be ignored then they will want and have their Independence, and I don't blame them at all. The divergence between rUK and Scottish opinion is now too much to be possible in one country for long.

    Most polls contradict you. Despite what the SNP would like you to believe, on most issues there is little difference in attitude between Scottish and rUK voters.

    But I suspect we are in for a lot of Remainer catastrophizing given Friday....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    edited January 30
    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    ...High skilled immigration and travel to and from the EU is unlikely to be much affected, you already need a passport to go to an EU country anyway as we never joined Schengen...
    You're eliding "travel to" and "right to live in". On January 1st 2021 you lose the right to live in another EU country (except for Ireland and possibly Cyprus? and Malta?). You may still have the option, but you no longer have the right.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562

    Foxy said:

    The significance of Brexit for Scottish independence does not exclusively relate to the pros and cons of a land border on the Tweed. Unless England and Scotland are both in the EU, that customs border is priced into the Scottish Independence issue.

    The real significance is the divergence of political opinion in Scotland from England, of which Brexit is just one of many obvious issues. If Scots are going to be ignored then they will want and have their Independence, and I don't blame them at all. The divergence between rUK and Scottish opinion is now too much to be possible in one country for long.

    Most polls contradict you. Despite what the SNP would like you to believe, on most issues there is little difference in attitude between Scottish and rUK voters.

    But I suspect we are in for a lot of Remainer catastrophizing given Friday....
    Diehard Remainers are desperate for Brexit to lead to Scottish independence as 'punishment' for Leavers for their vote but the polling shows that Leavers put Brexit first even ahead of keeping the UK together and in Scotland support for independence is no higher than it was in 2014 anyway
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited January 30
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    ...High skilled immigration and travel to and from the EU is unlikely to be much affected, you already need a passport to go to an EU country anyway as we never joined Schengen...
    You're eliding "travel to" and "right to live in". On January 1st 2021 you lose the right to live in another EU country (except for Ireland and possibly Cyprus? and Malta?). You may still have the option, but you no longer have the right.

    The vast majority of the population will never live in an EU country anyway, even those who retire to Spain tend to be of above average wealth, the average pensioner is more likely to retire to Bognor, Eastbourne or Skegness.

    900 000 Britons live in the EU out of a population of 66 million ie little more than 1%
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/27/fewer-britons-in-rest-of-europe-than-previously-thought-ons-research
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627
    Excellent thread.

    The SNP’s siding with Corbyn and the ERG to torpedo Theresa May’s softish Brexit, which would have produced a much more frictionless border than Boris Johnson is aiming at, looks short-sighted.

    Up there with voting down the Callaghan administration.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627
    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    ...High skilled immigration and travel to and from the EU is unlikely to be much affected, you already need a passport to go to an EU country anyway as we never joined Schengen...
    You're eliding "travel to" and "right to live in". On January 1st 2021 you lose the right to live in another EU country (except for Ireland and possibly Cyprus? and Malta?). You may still have the option, but you no longer have the right.

    You lose the automatic right to do so. Many Brits will continue to work in Europe, and Europeans in the U.K. provided they have the skills required - just like the rest of the world.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    ...High skilled immigration and travel to and from the EU is unlikely to be much affected, you already need a passport to go to an EU country anyway as we never joined Schengen...
    You're eliding "travel to" and "right to live in". On January 1st 2021 you lose the right to live in another EU country (except for Ireland and possibly Cyprus? and Malta?). You may still have the option, but you no longer have the right.

    You lose the automatic right to do so. Many Brits will continue to work in Europe, and Europeans in the U.K. provided they have the skills required - just like the rest of the world.
    Quick check: do you think there's a difference between an "automatic right" and a "right"?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    ...High skilled immigration and travel to and from the EU is unlikely to be much affected, you already need a passport to go to an EU country anyway as we never joined Schengen...
    You're eliding "travel to" and "right to live in". On January 1st 2021 you lose the right to live in another EU country (except for Ireland and possibly Cyprus? and Malta?). You may still have the option, but you no longer have the right.

    You lose the automatic right to do so. Many Brits will continue to work in Europe, and Europeans in the U.K. provided they have the skills required - just like the rest of the world.
    PART 2: No, you lose the right. You may still have the option. But you no longer have the right.

    (before we go on, and I hope you don't think me rude, but I'm not sure you know what the word "right" means. It's something you don't have to ask permission for, or justify, or have taken away from you without due process. Following Brexit, Britons working on the Continent may not be allowed to take up a post even if qualified or may be evicted from it without having broken any terms. That's the difference between an option and a right)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    ...High skilled immigration and travel to and from the EU is unlikely to be much affected, you already need a passport to go to an EU country anyway as we never joined Schengen...
    You're eliding "travel to" and "right to live in". On January 1st 2021 you lose the right to live in another EU country (except for Ireland and possibly Cyprus? and Malta?). You may still have the option, but you no longer have the right.

    You lose the automatic right to do so. Many Brits will continue to work in Europe, and Europeans in the U.K. provided they have the skills required - just like the rest of the world.
    PART 2: No, you lose the right. You may still have the option. But you no longer have the right.

    (before we go on, and I hope you don't think me rude, but I'm not sure you know what the word "right" means. It's something you don't have to ask permission for, or justify, or have taken away from you without due process. Following Brexit, Britons working on the Continent may not be allowed to take up a post even if qualified or may be evicted from it without having broken any terms. That's the difference between an option and a right)
    The “right” was always tied to employment and work - it wasn’t “a right to live in” as you first wrote.

    But enough angels on pin heads. Most U.K. citizens have chosen to go and work in countries where they only ever had “an option” as you put it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    viewcode said:



    You lose the automatic right to do so. Many Brits will continue to work in Europe, and Europeans in the U.K. provided they have the skills required - just like the rest of the world.

    PART 2: No, you lose the right. You may still have the option. But you no longer have the right.

    (before we go on, and I hope you don't think me rude, but I'm not sure you know what the word "right" means. It's something you don't have to ask permission for, or justify, or have taken away from you without due process. Following Brexit, Britons working on the Continent may not be allowed to take up a post even if qualified or may be evicted from it without having broken any terms. That's the difference between an option and a right)
    The “right” was always tied to employment and work - it wasn’t “a right to live in” as you first wrote...
    There seems to be a legitimate misunderstanding here. An a EU citizen one has the right to live in another EU country without[1] undertaking employment or education, subject to adequate resources and health insurance.

    This is the second or third (fourth?) time this has cropped up. PB Leavers genuinely don't seem to understand that post-Brexit their ability to live in another EU country will qualitatively change. Before: one has the right. After: one may have the option...but not the right. It's the difference between taking and asking.

    [1] https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/residence-rights/index_en.htm

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627
    One side effect of Brexit - the EU will lose a quarter of its US population when the U.K. leaves. After that there will be as many Americans working in the EU as U.K. citizens (ex-Ireland).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,627
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:



    You lose the automatic right to do so. Many Brits will continue to work in Europe, and Europeans in the U.K. provided they have the skills required - just like the rest of the world.

    PART 2: No, you lose the right. You may still have the option. But you no longer have the right.

    (before we go on, and I hope you don't think me rude, but I'm not sure you know what the word "right" means. It's something you don't have to ask permission for, or justify, or have taken away from you without due process. Following Brexit, Britons working on the Continent may not be allowed to take up a post even if qualified or may be evicted from it without having broken any terms. That's the difference between an option and a right)
    The “right” was always tied to employment and work - it wasn’t “a right to live in” as you first wrote...
    There seems to be a legitimate misunderstanding here. An a EU citizen one has the right to live in another EU country without[1] undertaking employment or education, subject to adequate resources and health insurance.

    This is the second or third (fourth?) time this has cropped up. PB Leavers genuinely don't seem to understand that post-Brexit their ability to live in another EU country will qualitatively change. Before: one has the right. After: one may have the option...but not the right. It's the difference between taking and asking.

    [1] https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/residence-rights/index_en.htm

    Thank you for clarifying. Looks very similar to the “retirement visas” many EU countries currently offer to non-EU citizens.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 1,872
    edited January 30
    If @Gallowgate needs a new angle for his or her thesis, perhaps the number of law firms in the new Stonewall list of gay-friendly employers is of note, as enlightened companies scoop up gay talent. Number 4 is the home of pb's @AlastairMeeks, of course.

    Politics-wise, some government departments and a handful of local authorities feature; the Welsh Assembly and Welsh Government are at numbers 8 and 9.

    https://www.stonewall.org.uk/full-list-top-100-employers-2020
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    Immigration of non-EEC people is not an EU competence, it’s devolved to the member states to run as they see fit. After the UK leaves the EU, it is up to each member state how they wish to treat British citizens, and up to the UK how we treat citizens of the EU member states.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,975

    Excellent thread.

    The SNP’s siding with Corbyn and the ERG to torpedo Theresa May’s softish Brexit, which would have produced a much more frictionless border than Boris Johnson is aiming at, looks short-sighted.

    Up there with voting down the Callaghan administration.

    Most PBers under 60 won't get that reference. It was the SNP that paved the way for Maggie in 1979
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563

    Excellent thread.

    The SNP’s siding with Corbyn and the ERG to torpedo Theresa May’s softish Brexit, which would have produced a much more frictionless border than Boris Johnson is aiming at, looks short-sighted.

    Up there with voting down the Callaghan administration.

    Most PBers under 60 won't get that reference. It was the SNP that paved the way for Maggie in 1979
    The SNP don't like being reminded of their past.

    They tend to get a bit.. uppity about it.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197

    One side effect of Brexit - the EU will lose a quarter of its US population when the U.K. leaves. After that there will be as many Americans working in the EU as U.K. citizens (ex-Ireland).

    If it is legitimate to call the withered rump of our country, post-independent Scotland, as "rUK", then so much more appropriate to refer to the rump, post Brexit, European Union as "rEU".....

    They will rEU the day they lost us.
  • Excellent thread.

    The SNP’s siding with Corbyn and the ERG to torpedo Theresa May’s softish Brexit, which would have produced a much more frictionless border than Boris Johnson is aiming at, looks short-sighted.

    Up there with voting down the Callaghan administration.

    Most PBers under 60 won't get that reference. It was the SNP that paved the way for Maggie in 1979
    The SNP don't like being reminded of their past.

    They tend to get a bit.. uppity about it.
    The same charge could be made more recently of the LibDems whose refusal to work with Labour in the last parliament to extend Article 50 led directly to Boris and, well, tomorrow night.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:



    You lose the automatic right to do so. Many Brits will continue to work in Europe, and Europeans in the U.K. provided they have the skills required - just like the rest of the world.

    PART 2: No, you lose the right. You may still have the option. But you no longer have the right.

    (before we go on, and I hope you don't think me rude, but I'm not sure you know what the word "right" means. It's something you don't have to ask permission for, or justify, or have taken away from you without due process. Following Brexit, Britons working on the Continent may not be allowed to take up a post even if qualified or may be evicted from it without having broken any terms. That's the difference between an option and a right)
    The “right” was always tied to employment and work - it wasn’t “a right to live in” as you first wrote...
    There seems to be a legitimate misunderstanding here. An a EU citizen one has the right to live in another EU country without[1] undertaking employment or education, subject to adequate resources and health insurance.

    This is the second or third (fourth?) time this has cropped up. PB Leavers genuinely don't seem to understand that post-Brexit their ability to live in another EU country will qualitatively change. Before: one has the right. After: one may have the option...but not the right. It's the difference between taking and asking.

    [1] https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/residence-rights/index_en.htm

    To be fair, that's just as regularly misunderstood by regular Remainer posters.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,155

    Excellent thread.

    The SNP’s siding with Corbyn and the ERG to torpedo Theresa May’s softish Brexit, which would have produced a much more frictionless border than Boris Johnson is aiming at, looks short-sighted.

    Up there with voting down the Callaghan administration.

    Most PBers under 60 won't get that reference. It was the SNP that paved the way for Maggie in 1979
    The SNP don't like being reminded of their past.

    They tend to get a bit.. uppity about it.
    Still gurgling away are we? The present can be embarassing enough.

  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,210
    Today is the last full day being a member ofr the EU.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563
    I wonder if, for soft Remainer type floating voters in Scotland, channelling the reverse of
    Boris’s slogan in December might be quite effective: ‘do you really want to go through all this again?’
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563

    Excellent thread.

    The SNP’s siding with Corbyn and the ERG to torpedo Theresa May’s softish Brexit, which would have produced a much more frictionless border than Boris Johnson is aiming at, looks short-sighted.

    Up there with voting down the Callaghan administration.

    Most PBers under 60 won't get that reference. It was the SNP that paved the way for Maggie in 1979
    The SNP don't like being reminded of their past.

    They tend to get a bit.. uppity about it.
    Still gurgling away are we? The present can be embarassing enough.

    Yep, it really gets under your skin.

    As that post aimed at distraction demonstrates.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,399
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    ...High skilled immigration and travel to and from the EU is unlikely to be much affected, you already need a passport to go to an EU country anyway as we never joined Schengen...
    You're eliding "travel to" and "right to live in". On January 1st 2021 you lose the right to live in another EU country (except for Ireland and possibly Cyprus? and Malta?). You may still have the option, but you no longer have the right.

    The vast majority of the population will never live in an EU country anyway, even those who retire to Spain tend to be of above average wealth, the average pensioner is more likely to retire to Bognor, Eastbourne or Skegness.

    900 000 Britons live in the EU out of a population of 66 million ie little more than 1%
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/27/fewer-britons-in-rest-of-europe-than-previously-thought-ons-research
    30% of the population don't bother to vote, let's take that right away from them as well.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,399
    Another issue that Brexit has caused for Scottish independence: the British experience of the Brexit process. The trials and travails of the last 3 years have aptly shown how difficult it is for a small part of a large bloc to split off - a process that would be repeated with Scotland. The same issues of money, borders and legal alignment would all apply, and all would be deeply difficult to resolve.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563
    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    ...High skilled immigration and travel to and from the EU is unlikely to be much affected, you already need a passport to go to an EU country anyway as we never joined Schengen...
    You're eliding "travel to" and "right to live in". On January 1st 2021 you lose the right to live in another EU country (except for Ireland and possibly Cyprus? and Malta?). You may still have the option, but you no longer have the right.

    The vast majority of the population will never live in an EU country anyway, even those who retire to Spain tend to be of above average wealth, the average pensioner is more likely to retire to Bognor, Eastbourne or Skegness.

    900 000 Britons live in the EU out of a population of 66 million ie little more than 1%
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/27/fewer-britons-in-rest-of-europe-than-previously-thought-ons-research
    The difference will be it’s based on national interest (provided it complies with EU law) rather than an EU right.

    I think Spain will do some sort of deal as they depend a lot on British expats for their economy, and probably France too - they’ve certainly started making moves in that direction.

    Perhaps it might be harder in places like Italy and Greece, where British ex-pat communities are relatively smaller, but they may take a different view too.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563
    On topic, it’s an excellent article by Richard.

    There appear to be two vectors for Unionists:

    (1) Try and fracture the nationalist ‘45%’ voting coalition, by going heavily on the record of Holyrood and the economy. This is probably a tough ask, and I sense that group is firmer than it looks; the SNP response will obviously be to blame any failings on “Westminster austerity” so they’ll instead need to cite direct examples of administrative incompetence and policy decisions made in Holyrood. Those won’t always work but they will distract the SNP and put it on the defensive.

    (2) Work on soft unionists from last time who may be tempted to jump the other way this time. For those, the economic arguments redux vis a vis the EU and the UK look like they could be pretty powerful, as Richard states in his article.

    I could see a range of results if an indyref2 were to be called (say late 2021 or 2022, for arguments sake) with 40% for independence probably being the absolute floor to 52-53% in favour if everything goes right.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,836

    HYUFD said:

    viewcode said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    It doesn’t matter how many complications there might be after the transition period Leavers have an answer for everything !

    I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .

    Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .

    People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .

    I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .

    Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.

    ...High skilled immigration and travel to and from the EU is unlikely to be much affected, you already need a passport to go to an EU country anyway as we never joined Schengen...
    You're eliding "travel to" and "right to live in". On January 1st 2021 you lose the right to live in another EU country (except for Ireland and possibly Cyprus? and Malta?). You may still have the option, but you no longer have the right.

    The vast majority of the population will never live in an EU country anyway, even those who retire to Spain tend to be of above average wealth, the average pensioner is more likely to retire to Bognor, Eastbourne or Skegness.

    900 000 Britons live in the EU out of a population of 66 million ie little more than 1%
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/27/fewer-britons-in-rest-of-europe-than-previously-thought-ons-research
    30% of the population don't bother to vote, let's take that right away from them as well.
    I've no particular desire to live in Spain, France or wherever, but I have relations who do, and have businesses with activities in more than one country. And I have grandchildren who will now have fewer options than recently.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,191

    Excellent thread.

    The SNP’s siding with Corbyn and the ERG to torpedo Theresa May’s softish Brexit, which would have produced a much more frictionless border than Boris Johnson is aiming at, looks short-sighted.

    Up there with voting down the Callaghan administration.

    Most PBers under 60 won't get that reference. It was the SNP that paved the way for Maggie in 1979
    I thought it was that Irish MP who eventally abstained that did for Callaghan, but I do not recall the SNP part in this.. I will investigate....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    If there’s one thing that Brexit has shown us its that identity trumps economics. With the current government determined to treat Scotland like a colony, the wind is at the back of those seeking independence.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,836

    Excellent thread.

    The SNP’s siding with Corbyn and the ERG to torpedo Theresa May’s softish Brexit, which would have produced a much more frictionless border than Boris Johnson is aiming at, looks short-sighted.

    Up there with voting down the Callaghan administration.

    Most PBers under 60 won't get that reference. It was the SNP that paved the way for Maggie in 1979
    I thought it was that Irish MP who eventally abstained that did for Callaghan, but I do not recall the SNP part in this.. I will investigate....
    The Irish Independent who didn't turn up was the final nail in the coffin but pretty all non-Labour MP's, IIRC, were either against or absent.The Lib-Lab pact had long since collapsed.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    edited January 30

    If @Gallowgate needs a new angle for his or her thesis, perhaps the number of law firms in the new Stonewall list of gay-friendly employers is of note, as enlightened companies scoop up gay talent. Number 4 is the home of pb's @AlastairMeeks, of course.

    Politics-wise, some government departments and a handful of local authorities feature; the Welsh Assembly and Welsh Government are at numbers 8 and 9.

    https://www.stonewall.org.uk/full-list-top-100-employers-2020

    We have found that our longstanding recognition by Stonewall makes us a very attractive employer to all kinds of potential recruits, not just gay talent. I was interviewing candidates for a junior position in Birmingham last year. Both external candidates mentioned this unprompted as something that really attracted them to the firm. I didn’t ask, obviously, but so far as I could tell both are straight (the successful candidate, who was one of them, is in a longterm heterosexual relationship).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    edited January 30

    Excellent thread.

    The SNP’s siding with Corbyn and the ERG to torpedo Theresa May’s softish Brexit, which would have produced a much more frictionless border than Boris Johnson is aiming at, looks short-sighted.

    Up there with voting down the Callaghan administration.

    Most PBers under 60 won't get that reference. It was the SNP that paved the way for Maggie in 1979
    I thought it was that Irish MP who eventally abstained that did for Callaghan, but I do not recall the SNP part in this.. I will investigate....
    It was many factors. The SDLP and a Republican abstained. Sir Alfred Broughton was dying and Callaghan ordered him not to attend (he had offered to come in even if it killed him, which given how sick he was it would have done). Bernard Wetherill offered to abstain in his place but Walter Harrison thought that was asking too much of Wetherill. The SNP tabled a motion of their own and then voted for Thatcher’s motion. As did the Liberals, for that matter.

    It’s simplistic to say one thing or person doomed the Callaghan government. The real issue was of course that it had no majority and following the IMF bailout and the Winter of Discontent had lost public support.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 4,553

    I wonder if, for soft Remainer type floating voters in Scotland, channelling the reverse of
    Boris’s slogan in December might be quite effective: ‘do you really want to go through all this again?’

    Why not? You'd go through it all again if the UK rejoined.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    Excellent article.

    I personally think that Boris can and will hold the line of refusing a further referendum until the next Holyrood elections. if the SNP or even the SNP + Greens get a majority there on the back of a policy of having a second referendum further resistance will be pointless and ill advised. Whatever the leadership may have said in 2014 the people will have chosen a second referendum and that is their right.

    By that time, of course, we will have a trade deal with the EU. The nature of that trade deal is going to be of considerable importance in the discussion since it is likely to form the basis of border regulation between Scotland and rUK should Scotland leave the UK and rejoin the EU. If that trade deal involves friction at the border Scotland has a major problem. If, as I expect, it doesn't with no tariffs, limits and broad mutual recognition of standards, it may be manageable. Nicola finds herself in the position of hoping that Boris gets a good deal for very similar reasons to those that Richard points out should have resulted in her backing May's deal. If it doesn't the consequences for Scotland of having such a border at Berwick would be severe.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563
    Dura_Ace said:

    I wonder if, for soft Remainer type floating voters in Scotland, channelling the reverse of
    Boris’s slogan in December might be quite effective: ‘do you really want to go through all this again?’

    Why not? You'd go through it all again if the UK rejoined.
    Yes, but (a) you wouldn’t be doing it in one step if it went via independence from the UK, and would probably need your own interim currency and hard border as a stepping point first and (b) rejoining (long process and changing lots of stuff to do it) isn’t particularly attractive to the electorate compared with remaining (status quo).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    One thing to think about in relation to any future vote on Scottish independence - who would lead the campaign for No? The list of popular and credible unionists is not exactly long and I imagine Boris Johnson would feature heavily in the pro-independence campaign literature.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    One thing to think about in relation to any future vote on Scottish independence - who would lead the campaign for No? The list of popular and credible unionists is not exactly long and I imagine Boris Johnson would feature heavily in the pro-independence campaign literature.

    Nicola Sturgeon? As soon as independence happens the reasons for voting SNP vanish.
  • If there’s one thing that Brexit has shown us its that identity trumps economics. With the current government determined to treat Scotland like a colony, the wind is at the back of those seeking independence.

    Remain utterly failed to grasp this simple point. Brexit was an emotional vote not an economic one. It's pretty clear that leaving completely will bigger the economy and imperil the job prospects of many of the people who voted for it. They don't care because (a) they already feel economically imperiled and (b) they have been gaslit believe that all negative forecasts are "project fear". Reality will soon bite.

    Where remain will again go wrong is assuming that when people lose their jobs, some smug remainer going "aaaaahhh we told you so" is going to make them change their minds. It will always be someone else's fault. Lots of talk this morning about FOM - I'm absolutely clear that large swathes of leave voters have no idea this applies to them. Even the smaller impacts of this like the huge delays getting through customs will provoke reams of angry Daily Mail reports.

    Yet as I have already posted on local Facebook groups about the coming big cuts to local government funding "this is what you voted for". As long as the identity crisis of the English remains, Brexit will remain popular even as the impacts of Brexit become increasingly unpopular.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 6,935

    If @Gallowgate needs a new angle for his or her thesis, perhaps the number of law firms in the new Stonewall list of gay-friendly employers is of note, as enlightened companies scoop up gay talent. Number 4 is the home of pb's @AlastairMeeks, of course.

    Politics-wise, some government departments and a handful of local authorities feature; the Welsh Assembly and Welsh Government are at numbers 8 and 9.

    https://www.stonewall.org.uk/full-list-top-100-employers-2020

    We have found that our longstanding recognition by Stonewall makes us a very attractive employer to all kinds of potential recruits, not just gay talent. I was interviewing candidates for a junior position in Birmingham last year. Both external candidates mentioned this unprompted as something that really attracted them to the firm. I didn’t ask, obviously, but so far as I could tell both are straight (the successful candidate, who was one of them, is in a longterm heterosexual relationship).
    Shameless humble brag on this point.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,001
    ydoethur said:

    One thing to think about in relation to any future vote on Scottish independence - who would lead the campaign for No? The list of popular and credible unionists is not exactly long and I imagine Boris Johnson would feature heavily in the pro-independence campaign literature.

    Nicola Sturgeon? As soon as independence happens the reasons for voting SNP vanish.
    That’s why people who oppose the SNP for partisan reasons should support independence.
This discussion has been closed.