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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First results from Iowa have Buttgieg in the lead

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Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    Joe Kennedy is probably having mixed emotions tonight.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    rcs1000 said:

    95/177 precincts in Des Moines have reported. That's 56%, barely different from the 61% reported number for state as a whole.

    This implies that Sanders is unlikely to get a meaningful boost from Des Moines being so far underrepresented.

    Straws are being clutched.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    tyson said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:
    Looks like the first alignment figures to me
    Good point.

    Big picture: not great for Sleepy Joe, is it?
    If that's 1st, then it has to be Pete doesn't it?
    Yep. Biden will be out by Super Tuesday. Bernie afterwards, I reckon.
    Writing Bernie Sanders off after this result is a hilariously bad take.
    Stake your money as you choose.

    Sanders will probably get New Hampshire, but not enough on super Tuesday.
    Strangely, this may well work out for the Bern......better for him to build up momentum rather than rush ahead with a huge target on his back.,....
    Nah, the overwhelming thing for Dems is to have a candidate who can beat Trump. That isn't going to be Bernie or Joe.
    Not necessarily
    //twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1224463798054129664?s=20
    ://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1223311559625019392?s=20
    Bless! After believing the polls in Iowa...
    Most final polls in Iowa had Sanders ahead in the popular vote, it looks like Sanders has won the popular vote
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513
    How's trusting Mike Cernovich tweets treating people?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
    Most of the oustanding vote is in Urban Sanders Counties:

    Polk
    Woodbury
    Linn
    Muscatine
    Dubuque

    I will grant you that the Sanders lead in all these counties is not large, but he could expand his lead by 1000 votes.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    Alistair said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Oooofffff. May go back in and back Bernie
    At this rate I may start laying Bernie.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,226

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
    Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
    South Bend is majority African American?
    "According to the most recent ACS, the racial composition of South Bend was: White: 63.15% Black or African American: 26.40% Two or more races: 4.25%Oct 29, 2019"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,226
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
    Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
    South Bend is majority African American?
    "According to the most recent ACS, the racial composition of South Bend was: White: 63.15% Black or African American: 26.40% Two or more races: 4.25%Oct 29, 2019"
    So not majority, but significant AA minority.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513
    rcs1000 said:

    95/177 precincts in Des Moines have reported. That's 56%, barely different from the 61% reported number for state as a whole.

    This implies that Sanders is unlikely to get a meaningful boost from Des Moines being so far underrepresented.

    Thanks for that, money will stay in pocket.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,226
    Alistair said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Oooofffff. May go back in and back Bernie
    1. It's 56% vs 61%, so no big difference
    2. Sanders is only 2% ahead of Buttigieg in Des Moines
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    Wasn't Casino in a big hole with Sanders ?
    Must be mighty relieved tonight.
  • Is the edge off the boot ahead?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    edited February 4

    Joe Kennedy is probably having mixed emotions tonight.

    He shouldn't, Sanders is now likely to be the eventual nominee after Biden's collapse (maybe with Buttigieg as VP nominee), then Trump is likely to be re elected. If Joe Kennedy wins the Massachusetts Senate race in November he will be ideally placed to follow in his great uncle's footsteps (and where his grandfather just missed out on following his assassination) in 2024
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513
    Don't understand how this result has resulted in my girl The Real Deal Lizzle Shizzle lengthening for the nomination.

    No movement is what I would have expected.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 4
    Alistair said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Oooofffff. May go back in and back Bernie
    Not yet, even within counties results may vary.
    And the saussage making of State Delegates is a wrench.

    Sanders may expand his lead by 1000 votes but we don't know if that will translate into State Delegates.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,226
    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
    Most of the oustanding vote is in Urban Sanders Counties:

    Polk
    Woodbury
    Linn
    Muscatine
    Dubuque

    I will grant you that the Sanders lead in all these counties is not large, but he could expand his lead by 1000 votes.
    Linn is 71% reported
    Woodbury is 66%

    Dubuque has Buttigieg leading Sanders comfortably

    And Linn is pretty small
  • Wow.

    Shocking news emerging from Anfield, in the post match drugs test several of the Liverpool players have tested positive for calpol.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,461
    Looking from the first results to the first realignment, Biden LOST 2k votes. Translation, he wasn't viable in many precincts. He was never going to win Iowa, but this is a bad result for him. This is CNN on 62% reporting.

    Considering he was a popular veep for 8 years, and has had the state virtually to himself for 2 weeks, this is not good at all.

    His firewall of SC is based on his appeal to the main democratic support group - African Americans.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
    Most of the oustanding vote is in Urban Sanders Counties:

    Polk
    Woodbury
    Linn
    Muscatine
    Dubuque

    I will grant you that the Sanders lead in all these counties is not large, but he could expand his lead by 1000 votes.
    Linn is 71% reported
    Woodbury is 66%

    Dubuque has Buttigieg leading Sanders comfortably

    And Linn is pretty small
    Woodbury is massively Sanders according to CNN i think
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    Tim_B said:

    Looking from the first results to the first realignment, Biden LOST 2k votes. Translation, he wasn't viable in many precincts. He was never going to win Iowa, but this is a bad result for him. This is CNN on 62% reporting.

    Considering he was a popular veep for 8 years, and has had the state virtually to himself for 2 weeks, this is not good at all.

    His firewall of SC is based on his appeal to the main democratic support group - African Americans.

    And if you look at the popular vote, he got around a quarter of the ‘moderate’ total.
    That is miserable.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    edited February 4
    Tim_B said:

    Looking from the first results to the first realignment, Biden LOST 2k votes. Translation, he wasn't viable in many precincts. He was never going to win Iowa, but this is a bad result for him. This is CNN on 62% reporting.

    Considering he was a popular veep for 8 years, and has had the state virtually to himself for 2 weeks, this is not good at all.

    His firewall of SC is based on his appeal to the main democratic support group - African Americans.

    Maybe folks are just coming to the Mike conclusion. Too old. End of.

    Edit: My mother has been saying this for months and she is roughly the same age.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513
    Surely a 16% chance for the Nom is too long for Biden now? Convince me otherwise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,175
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
    Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
    South Bend is majority African American?
    "According to the most recent ACS, the racial composition of South Bend was: White: 63.15% Black or African American: 26.40% Two or more races: 4.25%Oct 29, 2019"
    So not majority, but significant AA minority.
    If Pete got all of the white vote (he didn't!) Then he also got more than 50% of the AA and other vote, presuming turnout the same across both groups.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735

    Wow.

    Shocking news emerging from Anfield, in the post match drugs test several of the Liverpool players have tested positive for calpol.

    Is this a joke?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513
    Tim_B said:

    Looking from the first results to the first realignment, Biden LOST 2k votes. Translation, he wasn't viable in many precincts. He was never going to win Iowa, but this is a bad result for him. This is CNN on 62% reporting.

    Considering he was a popular veep for 8 years, and has had the state virtually to himself for 2 weeks, this is not good at all.

    His firewall of SC is based on his appeal to the main democratic support group - African Americans.

    But his appeal to African Americans is his electabilty to white Americans.
  • Wow.

    Shocking news emerging from Anfield, in the post match drugs test several of the Liverpool players have tested positive for calpol.

    Is this a joke?
    Yes, the average age of the team was like 19.

    Or as Paddy Power put it, a team with three pubes between them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    Alistair said:

    Surely a 16% chance for the Nom is too long for Biden now? Convince me otherwise.

    Early days.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,461
    As a MASH fan, I am curious as to how Ottumwa voted.

    It is the hometown of Radar O'Reilly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    Alistair said:

    Don't understand how this result has resulted in my girl The Real Deal Lizzle Shizzle lengthening for the nomination.

    No movement is what I would have expected.

    Because there’s no real path. She doesn’t have the money, and I don’t think this result is quite good enough to raise sufficient to compete. It’s not really fair, but politics isn’t.

    Iowa was really her best chance, I think ?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
    Most of the oustanding vote is in Urban Sanders Counties:

    Polk
    Woodbury
    Linn
    Muscatine
    Dubuque

    I will grant you that the Sanders lead in all these counties is not large, but he could expand his lead by 1000 votes.
    Linn is 71% reported
    Woodbury is 66%

    Dubuque has Buttigieg leading Sanders comfortably

    And Linn is pretty small
    You are looking at another number, I'm looking at the vote you are looking at State Delegates.
    My argument is that if Sanders vote lead expands he will be in a very good chance of overtaking Buttigieg in State Delegates.

    And look at Jefferson county, only 50% Sanders has a 330 vote lead.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266

    Wow.

    Shocking news emerging from Anfield, in the post match drugs test several of the Liverpool players have tested positive for calpol.

    Is this a joke?
    I know, not TSE’s best effort...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    You think, Larry ? I’d say the nomination’s pretty well a lock for him... :smile:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
    Most of the oustanding vote is in Urban Sanders Counties:

    Polk
    Woodbury
    Linn
    Muscatine
    Dubuque

    I will grant you that the Sanders lead in all these counties is not large, but he could expand his lead by 1000 votes.
    Linn is 71% reported
    Woodbury is 66%

    Dubuque has Buttigieg leading Sanders comfortably

    And Linn is pretty small
    You are looking at another number, I'm looking at the vote you are looking at State Delegates.
    My argument is that if Sanders vote lead expands he will be in a very good chance of overtaking Buttigieg in State Delegates.

    And look at Jefferson county, only 50% Sanders has a 330 vote lead.
    We so need more results.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
    Most of the oustanding vote is in Urban Sanders Counties:

    Polk
    Woodbury
    Linn
    Muscatine
    Dubuque

    I will grant you that the Sanders lead in all these counties is not large, but he could expand his lead by 1000 votes.
    Linn is 71% reported
    Woodbury is 66%

    Dubuque has Buttigieg leading Sanders comfortably

    And Linn is pretty small
    You are looking at another number, I'm looking at the vote you are looking at State Delegates.
    My argument is that if Sanders vote lead expands he will be in a very good chance of overtaking Buttigieg in State Delegates.

    And look at Jefferson county, only 50% Sanders has a 330 vote lead.
    We so need more results.
    After last night, I’m not holding my breath.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,175

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    Not the Dem elite so much as regular Democrats across Iowa, urban and rural.

    Unless those Dem Metropolitan elites are as devilishly as common in provincial areas as they are in Britain.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
    Most of the oustanding vote is in Urban Sanders Counties:

    Polk
    Woodbury
    Linn
    Muscatine
    Dubuque

    I will grant you that the Sanders lead in all these counties is not large, but he could expand his lead by 1000 votes.
    Linn is 71% reported
    Woodbury is 66%

    Dubuque has Buttigieg leading Sanders comfortably

    And Linn is pretty small
    You are looking at another number, I'm looking at the vote you are looking at State Delegates.
    My argument is that if Sanders vote lead expands he will be in a very good chance of overtaking Buttigieg in State Delegates.

    And look at Jefferson county, only 50% Sanders has a 330 vote lead.
    We so need more results.
    After last night, I’m not holding my breath.

    Is this delay something to do with state of the union speech?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    Foxy said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    Not the Dem elite so much as regular Democrats across Iowa, urban and rural.

    Unless those Dem Metropolitan elites are as devilishly as common in provincial areas as they are in Britain.
    I meant the elite ( as in the elders of the Dem party, money men etc etc) dumping Biden and moving to Buttigieg
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,513
    Forget Bloomberg, Steyer is the true wildcard

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,520
    Betfair:

    Bloomberg now 2nd fav for Dem nomination.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 18,010
    Oh dear, it's going to be Cheating Pete isn't it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    Bernie == Corbyn == a cult.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,175
    edited February 4
    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    MaxPB said:

    Oh dear, it's going to be Cheating Pete isn't it.

    Trump is locked and loaded.

    Still better than Crazy.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
    Most of the oustanding vote is in Urban Sanders Counties:

    Polk
    Woodbury
    Linn
    Muscatine
    Dubuque

    I will grant you that the Sanders lead in all these counties is not large, but he could expand his lead by 1000 votes.
    Linn is 71% reported
    Woodbury is 66%

    Dubuque has Buttigieg leading Sanders comfortably

    And Linn is pretty small
    You are looking at another number, I'm looking at the vote you are looking at State Delegates.
    My argument is that if Sanders vote lead expands he will be in a very good chance of overtaking Buttigieg in State Delegates.

    And look at Jefferson county, only 50% Sanders has a 330 vote lead.
    We so need more results.
    Yes, it's too close too call on State Delegates but Sanders has definitely won the most Votes.

    We just don't know if an expading Sanders lead with Votes will translate to State Delegates.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,461
    This evening we have the State of the Union, tomorrow we have the impeachment vote in the Senate.

    Together with the descent into farce of Iowa, augmented by the revelation that the infamous app was written by a company set up by Hillary Clinton staffers, and the fact that we are now "On to New Hampshire", severely diminishes any 'bounce' - not to mention the credibility - and momentum accruing to the 'winner' of Iowa.

    It also takes the focus off Biden's stumbling to the finish line.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 33,828
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
    Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
    South Bend is majority African American?
    "According to the most recent ACS, the racial composition of South Bend was: White: 63.15% Black or African American: 26.40% Two or more races: 4.25%Oct 29, 2019"
    White 63.15% is NOT " majority African American" :lol:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,175
    speedy2 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
    Most of the oustanding vote is in Urban Sanders Counties:

    Polk
    Woodbury
    Linn
    Muscatine
    Dubuque

    I will grant you that the Sanders lead in all these counties is not large, but he could expand his lead by 1000 votes.
    Linn is 71% reported
    Woodbury is 66%

    Dubuque has Buttigieg leading Sanders comfortably

    And Linn is pretty small
    You are looking at another number, I'm looking at the vote you are looking at State Delegates.
    My argument is that if Sanders vote lead expands he will be in a very good chance of overtaking Buttigieg in State Delegates.

    And look at Jefferson county, only 50% Sanders has a 330 vote lead.
    We so need more results.
    Yes, it's too close too call on State Delegates but Sanders has definitely won the most Votes.

    We just don't know if an expading Sanders lead with Votes will translate to State Delegates.
    Possibly, but Pete has dealt a major blow to his rival, while Sanders has not.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266

    MaxPB said:

    Oh dear, it's going to be Cheating Pete isn't it.

    Trump is locked and loaded.

    Still better than Crazy.
    No, Trump is worse than crazy.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 18,010

    MaxPB said:

    Oh dear, it's going to be Cheating Pete isn't it.

    Trump is locked and loaded.

    Still better than Crazy.
    I actually think Crooked Hillary had a lot of cut through. Cheating Pete might also work.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,667

    Looks like Sanders did best in Sioux City

    SiouxCi hands the BernSheets.

    I've just got here, but I'll get my coat anyway.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg, but Bloomberg's old age makes him more respectable.

    You can't win the Democratic Nomination with 99% of African Am. not voting for you.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    MaxPB said:

    Oh dear, it's going to be Cheating Pete isn't it.

    Yeap.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,461

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Makes up for the fact I laid Pete for the Nom down to zero a little while ago.

    Well he won't be the nominee even if he wins Iowa because minorities hate him.
    It's all about who else won't be the nominee.
    Yet he was Mayor of a majority African American City
    South Bend is majority African American?
    "According to the most recent ACS, the racial composition of South Bend was: White: 63.15% Black or African American: 26.40% Two or more races: 4.25%Oct 29, 2019"
    White 63.15% is NOT " majority African American" :lol:
    depends - is that before or after realignment? :smile:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,175
    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg, but Bloomberg's old age makes him more respectable.

    You can't win the Democratic Nomination with 99% of African Am. not voting for you.
    I reckon he is going to pick up plenty of the AA vote, but feel free to bet against.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,175
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Oh dear, it's going to be Cheating Pete isn't it.

    Trump is locked and loaded.

    Still better than Crazy.
    I actually think Crooked Hillary had a lot of cut through. Cheating Pete might also work.
    Trump will be Trump, but Pete will tear him to shreds in the debates.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026
    Pro_Rata said:

    Looks like Sanders did best in Sioux City

    SiouxCi hands the BernSheets.

    I've just got here, but I'll get my coat anyway.
    Israel-ly bad....
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 855
    Biden must be done now.

    Good results for my book but who is backing Bloomberg ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,339
    With potentially no foreigners in China soon, it'll be like pre-1978 again.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,461
    At this point the only way the Iowa catastrophe could get worse would be for Biden to claim he beat expectations in the Ohio caucuses..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,735
    Night Iowa.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,461

    Pro_Rata said:

    Looks like Sanders did best in Sioux City

    SiouxCi hands the BernSheets.

    I've just got here, but I'll get my coat anyway.
    Israel-ly bad....
    the jew-ry is still out...
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
    Most of the oustanding vote is in Urban Sanders Counties:

    Polk
    Woodbury
    Linn
    Muscatine
    Dubuque

    I will grant you that the Sanders lead in all these counties is not large, but he could expand his lead by 1000 votes.
    Linn is 71% reported
    Woodbury is 66%

    Dubuque has Buttigieg leading Sanders comfortably

    And Linn is pretty small
    You are looking at another number, I'm looking at the vote you are looking at State Delegates.
    My argument is that if Sanders vote lead expands he will be in a very good chance of overtaking Buttigieg in State Delegates.

    And look at Jefferson county, only 50% Sanders has a 330 vote lead.
    We so need more results.
    Yes, it's too close too call on State Delegates but Sanders has definitely won the most Votes.

    We just don't know if an expading Sanders lead with Votes will translate to State Delegates.
    Possibly, but Pete has dealt a major blow to his rival, while Sanders has not.
    It's going to be a messy contested convention with lots of screaming by everyone and a Trump re-election, unless Nevada goes for Sanders or Buttigieg wins S.Carolina.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,026

    Wow.

    Shocking news emerging from Anfield, in the post match drugs test several of the Liverpool players have tested positive for calpol.

    Is this a joke?
    CALPOL ® Infant Suspension provides soothing relief from pain and fever for your children

    Yes, it's a joke at the expense of the under 15s who played tonight.

    I hope.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,175
    Andy_JS said:

    With potentially no foreigners in China soon, it'll be like pre-1978 again.

    While the number of confirmed cases and fatalities is doubling every 3-4 days, certainly it looks grim.


  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 4
    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

    Perception is everything.
    Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.

    That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    TGOHF666 said:

    Biden must be done now.

    Good results for my book but who is backing Bloomberg ?

    Himself.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    Facebook ban blog which Nats don’t like - wonder who complained?

  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,667

    Wow.

    Shocking news emerging from Anfield, in the post match drugs test several of the Liverpool players have tested positive for calpol.

    Is this a joke?
    CALPOL ® Infant Suspension provides soothing relief from pain and fever for your children

    Yes, it's a joke at the expense of the under 15s who played tonight.

    I hope.
    Hold off the accusations - innocent until cal-profen guilty.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    speedy2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

    Perception is everything.
    Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.

    That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
    By eating KFC off fine bone China with gold cutlery on his private jet.....
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 983
    speedy2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

    Perception is everything.
    Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.

    That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
    Trump probably isn’t a millionaire. And, er, talk about insulting the working class!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,540
    Not the point I know, but while I'm not generally opposed to evolution of language so that, for instance, gerrymandering can refer to electoral practices beyond the redrawing of boundaries for partisan advantage, the use of it there is really stretching it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
    Most of the oustanding vote is in Urban Sanders Counties:

    Polk
    Woodbury
    Linn
    Muscatine
    Dubuque

    I will grant you that the Sanders lead in all these counties is not large, but he could expand his lead by 1000 votes.
    Linn is 71% reported
    Woodbury is 66%

    Dubuque has Buttigieg leading Sanders comfortably

    And Linn is pretty small
    You are looking at another number, I'm looking at the vote you are looking at State Delegates.
    My argument is that if Sanders vote lead expands he will be in a very good chance of overtaking Buttigieg in State Delegates.

    And look at Jefferson county, only 50% Sanders has a 330 vote lead.
    We so need more results.
    Yes, it's too close too call on State Delegates but Sanders has definitely won the most Votes.

    We just don't know if an expading Sanders lead with Votes will translate to State Delegates.
    Possibly, but Pete has dealt a major blow to his rival, while Sanders has not.
    If Sanders wins New Hampshire next week he will have and if Biden then wins South Carolina that is the ideal route for him, having knocked out Warren with Buttigieg and Biden splitting the centrist vote
  • MikeL said:

    Betfair:

    Bloomberg now 2nd fav for Dem nomination.

    Joke, lay him.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,461
    speedy2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

    Perception is everything.
    Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.

    That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
    Trump won the working class vote because the Democrats abandoned it, and because they felt he understood and listened to them. Nobody thinks Trump is working class!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    kle4 said:

    Not the point I know, but while I'm not generally opposed to evolution of language so that, for instance, gerrymandering can refer to electoral practices beyond the redrawing of boundaries for partisan advantage, the use of it there is really stretching it.
    “Manipulating” would have been a better choice - they were probably trying to demonstrate the breadth of their vocabulary!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,281
    It would also be fair to say that the young left has been way more focused on attacking the frontrunner Biden, as I infer from the negative tone the Guardian takes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,266
    edited February 4
    kle4 said:

    Not the point I know, but while I'm not generally opposed to evolution of language so that, for instance, gerrymandering can refer to electoral practices beyond the redrawing of boundaries for partisan advantage, the use of it there is really stretching it.
    Given it is the tweet of an idiot, garbled terminology is to be expected.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,461
    Rumors are surfacing that Trump may announce the Medal of Freedom for Rush Limbaugh this evening.

    Limbaugh announced the other day that he has lung cancer. He attracts 30 million listeners for 3 hours a day, 5 days a week, and has been doing so for over 30 years..
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,281
    Obviously BUTTIGIEG will choose someone like Abrams as VP if he has to. It is a bit like the people who worried whether Trump would win Christians because of his pornocratic lifestyle. Of course he did because they just want stuff, not a leader.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 745
    EPG said:

    Obviously BUTTIGIEG will choose someone like Abrams as VP if he has to. It is a bit like the people who worried whether Trump would win Christians because of his pornocratic lifestyle. Of course he did because they just want stuff, not a leader.

    Buttigieg-Harris for the shortest ticket in US history?

    Booker would be good but would make Pete look like a child everywhere.
  • Tim_B said:

    speedy2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

    Perception is everything.
    Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.

    That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
    Trump won the working class vote because the Democrats abandoned it, and because they felt he understood and listened to them. Nobody thinks Trump is working class!
    Trump behaves how a poor person expects a millionaire would behave (stretch limo's, gold chandelier etc).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,175
    edited February 5
    Tim_B said:

    Rumors are surfacing that Trump may announce the Medal of Freedom for Rush Limbaugh this evening.

    Limbaugh announced the other day that he has lung cancer. He attracts 30 million listeners for 3 hours a day, 5 days a week, and has been doing so for over 30 years..

    Sad to hear anyone is terminally ill, but after decades of shilling for big tobacco, it is worth remembering that no amount of opinion and invective changes the facts.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,461

    Tim_B said:

    speedy2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

    Perception is everything.
    Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.

    That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
    Trump won the working class vote because the Democrats abandoned it, and because they felt he understood and listened to them. Nobody thinks Trump is working class!
    Trump behaves how a poor person expects a millionaire would behave (stretch limo's, gold chandelier etc).
    In my younger days growing up in Yorkshire, the phrase would be "fur coat, no knickers". :smile:
  • TimTTimT Posts: 351
    Tim_B said:

    speedy2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

    Perception is everything.
    Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.

    That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
    Trump won the working class vote because the Democrats abandoned it, and because they felt he understood and listened to them. Nobody thinks Trump is working class!
    Agree Tim. Slight nuance I hear is that Trump identified the issues they face, even if he has no answers, but that's still more than the Democrats do for them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,399
    edited February 5
    Tim_B said:

    speedy2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

    Perception is everything.
    Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.

    That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
    Trump won the working class vote because the Democrats abandoned it, and because they felt he understood and listened to them. Nobody thinks Trump is working class!
    Trump won the white skilled working class and lower middle class mainly, voters earning under $50 000 a year voted for Hillary
  • TimTTimT Posts: 351
    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    speedy2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

    Perception is everything.
    Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.

    That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
    Trump won the working class vote because the Democrats abandoned it, and because they felt he understood and listened to them. Nobody thinks Trump is working class!
    Trump behaves how a poor person expects a millionaire would behave (stretch limo's, gold chandelier etc).
    In my younger days growing up in Yorkshire, the phrase would be "fur coat, no knickers". :smile:
    Is that the same as the Texan "All hat no trousers"?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,461
    Foxy said:

    Tim_B said:

    Rumors are surfacing that Trump may announce the Medal of Freedom for Rush Limbaugh this evening.

    Limbaugh announced the other day that he has lung cancer. He attracts 30 million listeners for 3 hours a day, 5 days a week, and has been doing so for over 30 years..

    Sad to hear anyone is terminally ill, but after decades of shilling for big tobacco, it is worth remembering that no amount of opinion and invective changes the facts.
    ?? I merely recited facts - no opinion, no invective. I have never been a smoker. Please don't project your bias onto me.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    speedy2 said:

    We have precinct data.
    Half of the vote is outstanding in Des Moine.

    Buttigieg is only two points behind Bernie in Des Moines. If that were true for all the remaining precincts (and there are a lot of rural precincts still to come), Buttigieg would still will by a percent.

    People betting on Sanders here are idiots. The real odds should be 10 or 12 to 1.
    Most of the oustanding vote is in Urban Sanders Counties:

    Polk
    Woodbury
    Linn
    Muscatine
    Dubuque

    I will grant you that the Sanders lead in all these counties is not large, but he could expand his lead by 1000 votes.
    Linn is 71% reported
    Woodbury is 66%

    Dubuque has Buttigieg leading Sanders comfortably

    And Linn is pretty small
    You are looking at another number, I'm looking at the vote you are looking at State Delegates.
    My argument is that if Sanders vote lead expands he will be in a very good chance of overtaking Buttigieg in State Delegates.

    And look at Jefferson county, only 50% Sanders has a 330 vote lead.
    We so need more results.
    Indeed. We have results that are incomplete and unrepresentative and we are jumping to conclusions. :(:(
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,461
    TimT said:

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    speedy2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

    Perception is everything.
    Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.

    That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
    Trump won the working class vote because the Democrats abandoned it, and because they felt he understood and listened to them. Nobody thinks Trump is working class!
    Trump behaves how a poor person expects a millionaire would behave (stretch limo's, gold chandelier etc).
    In my younger days growing up in Yorkshire, the phrase would be "fur coat, no knickers". :smile:
    Is that the same as the Texan "All hat no trousers"?
    It's the same as "all hat and no cattle". :smile:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,541
    Tim_B said:

    Foxy said:

    Tim_B said:

    Rumors are surfacing that Trump may announce the Medal of Freedom for Rush Limbaugh this evening.

    Limbaugh announced the other day that he has lung cancer. He attracts 30 million listeners for 3 hours a day, 5 days a week, and has been doing so for over 30 years..

    Sad to hear anyone is terminally ill, but after decades of shilling for big tobacco, it is worth remembering that no amount of opinion and invective changes the facts.
    ?? I merely recited facts - no opinion, no invective. I have never been a smoker. Please don't project your bias onto me.
    I think you’ve misread Foxy - the comments were directed at Limbaugh, not you.
  • Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    speedy2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

    Perception is everything.
    Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.

    That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
    Trump won the working class vote because the Democrats abandoned it, and because they felt he understood and listened to them. Nobody thinks Trump is working class!
    Trump behaves how a poor person expects a millionaire would behave (stretch limo's, gold chandelier etc).
    In my younger days growing up in Yorkshire, the phrase would be "fur coat, no knickers". :smile:
    Yes, I've heard the same phrase from people in Nottingham referring to residents in West Bridgford.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,281
    Bit of a collapse for Sanders since 2016. In that light, he is lucky that it was just him and Warren on the left side of politics, because a third candidate might have really upset the internal ordering.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,461

    Tim_B said:

    Tim_B said:

    speedy2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    speedy2 said:

    Foxy said:

    speedy2 said:

    Dem elite to move onto Pete as the stop Bernie candidate?

    We are dealing with a PR system here.

    Until he gets above 10% with African Am. Buttigieg will not be the nominee.

    The African Am. vote by itself is not large enough for someone to win on it's own but large enough to prevent someone winning.

    Likewise the establishment vote on it's own is not enough.
    What percentage of the South Bend AA population voted for Pete by your calculation?

    Why do you think Pete is so much more unliked by AAs than the other contenders? I don't think that he is.
    I know that in all opinion polls Buttigieg is getting close to 0% among African Am.

    And it has been well documented why he is not liked, he is perceived by minorities as a Mayor who had a heavy hand against minorities, and also the perception that he is a young rich white snob.

    Bloomberg has also got a similar issue to Buttigieg...
    Odd, as Buttigieg is the only leading candidate who is not at least a millionaire.

    Perception is everything.
    Sanders is a millionaire but he doesn't talk or behave like one in public.

    That how Trump won the working class vote, by talking and behaving like a working class man.
    Trump won the working class vote because the Democrats abandoned it, and because they felt he understood and listened to them. Nobody thinks Trump is working class!
    Trump behaves how a poor person expects a millionaire would behave (stretch limo's, gold chandelier etc).
    In my younger days growing up in Yorkshire, the phrase would be "fur coat, no knickers". :smile:
    Yes, I've heard the same phrase from people in Nottingham referring to residents in West Bridgford.
    Not from the Gateway to Beeston, surely!
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