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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Irish General Election 2020 : Results & Review (Part One : C &

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 12 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Irish General Election 2020 : Results & Review (Part One : C & D Constituencies)

A general election never fails to excite or interest us and there was simply no inception here. The main talking points were Health, Homelessness & Housing (they must like or dislike the letter “H” in Ireland). Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael & Sinn Féin are the main three parties, but who will win and where did they go wrong? Find out below!Carlow / Kilkenny (Quota = 12,274)As expected Kathleen (Sinn Féin) got elected here, although I didn’t expect her to win. John McGuinness (Fianna Fáil) was the second candidate elected. The Green Party achieved the upset.Result : Five ElectedKathleen Funchion (S.F) 17,493 (1st Count)John Paul Phelan (F.G) 13,172 (Count 8)Jennifer Murnane O’Connor (F.F) 12,839 (Count 8)John McGuinness (F.F) 12,612 (Count 6)Malcolm Noonan (G.P) 10,543 (Count 10, Final Count)Best Runner Up: (NOT Elected) Bobby Aylward (F.F) 9,985.

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Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,340
    first, but not the last.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    Second, like Nandy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    Newsnight has lab leaders debate on now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:
    The fieldwork dates for that poll start before even Iowa
    The fieldwork ends well after Iowa
    OK. But imagine you have two candidates A and B. And there is a poll taken over eight days with Iowa in the middle. If A gets 60% of the vote for every day of sampling before Iowa, and 40% after, then when the results are released you'll think they're doing fine, still on 50%, when in fact they'll be on 40%.
    Day      A       B
    1 60 40
    2 60 40
    3 60 40
    4 60 40
    [[ Iowa Caucuses ]]
    5 40 60
    6 40 60
    7 40 60
    8 40 60

    Result 50 50
    And don't forget there hasn't been just one disastrous result for the Biden candidacy, but two.

    He was fourth in Iowa, and fifth in New Hampshire.

    The gap between joke candidate Steyer and Biden was 14,000 votes.

    The gap between Buttigeg and Biden (and we're not even talking Sanders here) was almost 50,000 votes.

    Think about that for a second. Biden was three times nearer Steyer in votes as he was Buttigieg.

    The former Vice President flopped with independents. He flopped with Democrats. He flopped in Iowa (where he'd campaigned solidly for weeks prior to the caucus). And then he flopped in New Hampshire.

    People say that Buttigieg can't get the votes of minorities. But Biden can't get the votes of anyone. He's clinging on on the back of a hope and prayer that the people of South Carolina will rescue him. But he's probably going to flop in Nevada. And then he'll flop again in South Carolina.

    2020 has been like 2008: another disastrously poor bid for the Presidency by Joe Biden.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    edited February 12
    Great job, GreenMachine.
    Much appreciated.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    Nandy telling the party once again to wake up and listen to its erstwhile voters.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 2,361

    Second, like Nandy.

    Oh no! That means Starmer is third!
  • For the record, I didn't space it out like that. Looks horrible.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    Labour 2020. Still arguing about Iraq.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,111
    Will this be Lisa Nandy’s chance to shine?

    I’ve backed Lisa for Labour leader and Amy for US Dem nominee and POTUS.

    I’ve not backed them in a double. 😀
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,340

    Labour 2020. Still arguing about Iraq.

    Thanks for the warning. Not sure some of them could find it on a map.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,687
    Thornberry coming up the on the rails - 4 nominations tonight from around 40 reports, 6 short with over 60 CLPs that have not yet nominated.....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    Pro_Rata said:

    Thornberry coming up the on the rails - 4 nominations tonight from around 40 reports, 6 short with over 60 CLPs that have not yet nominated.....

    Maybe she will scrape through.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 2,361

    Labour 2020. Still arguing about Iraq.

    To be fair it should hang around the party's neck for the millstone it is.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,284
    It looks like the outcome was very different to the preview by the same author. Hope nobody bet accordingly!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    dr_spyn said:

    Labour 2020. Still arguing about Iraq.

    Thanks for the warning. Not sure some of them could find it on a map.
    Yes, but that's Blair's fault. He had the maps withdrawn under orders from the Jews.

    Or something like that.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 4,131

    Labour 2020. Still arguing about Iraq.

    To be fair it should hang around the party's neck for the millstone it is.
    Iraq is ancient history for most voters, in the same way as the entire IRA issue did no harm either to Corbyn or Sinn Fein.

    If the Labour candidates really are having a Barney over it then this says more about the contemporary Left's maniacal obsession with the Middle East than anything else. They're clearly only interested in talking to the occupants of their little bubble, not the country.
  • FPT
    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Finland and the Baltic states are one hour ahead of Central European Time and Portugal one hour behind (like UK).

    That's a difference of East/West. Daylight savings is a matter of North/South more than East/West.
    I know, but you said "A proper European identity would transcend things like timezone differences."
    Indeed but in harmonising daylight savings the EU is doing that which Australia, America etc don't which is to harmonise across timezones daylight savings rules. Politicians from the South of Europe should not be voting on whether or not the North of Europe has daylight savings and vice-versa.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 2,361

    Labour 2020. Still arguing about Iraq.

    To be fair it should hang around the party's neck for the millstone it is.
    Iraq is ancient history for most voters, in the same way as the entire IRA issue did no harm either to Corbyn or Sinn Fein.

    If the Labour candidates really are having a Barney over it then this says more about the contemporary Left's maniacal obsession with the Middle East than anything else. They're clearly only interested in talking to the occupants of their little bubble, not the country.
    Your last paragraph in part is correct. Iraq was a shameful vanity project by a British Prime Minister. The one positive about Johnson is he will never engage the UK in an unnecessary foreign conflict. That lesson has been learned from Blair and Cameron.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,111
    Lisa doing ok I think.
    Emily a bit preachy.
    Keir a bit mansplaining.
    Becky a bit robotic - but less so than I was expecting.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 42,476
    edited February 12
    We were talking the other day about how the Guardian love to omit crucial details when it comes to these deportation stories.

    When Chevon Brown was 21 he was convicted of dangerous driving and spent seven months in prison. He admits he was speeding at over 100 miles an hour in an uninsured car.

    “I admit what I did was wrong. I know I am guilty of dangerous driving but it wasn’t a stolen car; nobody was hurt, I didn’t crash into anything, there was no damage,”

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/12/ripped-from-my-family-deportee-struggles-cope-jamaica-chevon-brown

    Makes it sound like he was giving it some welly on the M1 and got done for 101 mph right...

    ----------

    Chevon Brown was handed a 14-month prison sentence and was disqualified from driving for three years after he took car keys from the lock of a front door of a home in Cowley and drove a Jaguar X Type ‘extremely’ dangerously.

    The 21-year-old led a police chase for about five minutes, drove on the wrong side of the road, through red lights and across front gardens outside a block of flats, Oxford Crown Court heard on Thursday.

    Sentencing Brown, of Hayfield Road, Oxford, Judge Peter Ross said the defendant’s driving was ‘simply terrifying’. CCTV showed the Brown speed off down Hollow Way, through Wood Farm and onto the Eastern Bypass, where he clocked speeds of more than 100mph passing Oxford’s Mini Plant. The footage showed the defendant turn off down Sandy Lane and go along Blackbird Leys Road, Barnes Road and Cuddesdon Way.

    Mr Mandel said officers proceeded to chase Brown, adding it was ‘extremely bad driving’ and that at one point he reached a speed of 115mph.

    https://www.oxfordmail.co.uk/news/15246900.learner-driver-jailed-following-115mph-chase/

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,155
    On the topic of Iraq, Baghdad Central has definite potential.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 168

    For the record, I didn't space it out like that. Looks horrible.

    Thank you GreenMachine, Your posts have provided so much context to the election and although i stayed far away from Betfair its been interesting watching the situation morph over the last weeks.

    What are your predictions for the next few months regarding the Oireachtas political wranglings?

  • And two examples of those that got a a reprieve the other day, that Jezza seems so concerned about...

    Fitzroy Daley jailed for killing Eric Paul in knife attack

    A man who stabbed to death the partner of his ex-girlfriend's friend has been jailed for 10 years.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-22878245

    ----------

    Rapist who photographed his victim in her underwear and SHARED the pictures is jailed for 12 years

    Twisted Fabian Henry, 30, groomed the vulnerable 17 year-old via Blackberry messenger and raped her twice when their relationship turned sour.

    https://stories.swns.com/news/rapist-photographed-victim-underwear-shared-pictures-jailed-12-years-38481/
  • For the record, I didn't space it out like that. Looks horrible.

    Thank you GreenMachine, Your posts have provided so much context to the election and although i stayed far away from Betfair its been interesting watching the situation morph over the last weeks.

    What are your predictions for the next few months regarding the Oireachtas political wranglings?

    Your welcome @MightyAlex

    As for the next government, I'm not sure who it will involve. It's a proper lottery. I checked the odds earlier and FF/SF/GP and FF/FG/GP were both 3-1 joint favourites. Leo Varadkar was on the news earlier quoting "It's likely that I'll be the leader of the opposition, yes".

    Sinn Féin are trying to get the amount required (80 people) to form a lefter wing Dáil.
  • @MightyAlex

    As for the traditional St. Patrick's Day President & Taoiseach white house meeting, it's very likely that Leo Varadkar (F.G) will be shaking Trump's hand.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,713
    edited February 12

    Newsnight has lab leaders debate on now.

    Nandy - nice but looks like a shy child
    Starmer - stiff as a board & needs to blow his nose
    RLB - she doesn’t look real, expressionless
    Emily - the best of the lot by a mile, looks and sounds like a PM. How on earth is she the outsider?
  • isam said:

    Newsnight has lab leaders debate on now.

    Nandy - nice but looks like a shy child
    Starmer - stiff as a board & needs to blow his nose
    RLB - she doesn’t look real, expressionless
    Emily - the best of the lot by a mile, looks and sounds like a PM. How on earth is she the outsider?
    These things happen.

    Aodhan is into odds on for next Labour Ireland leader. 2-1 this morning.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    edited February 12
    isam said:

    Newsnight has lab leaders debate on now.

    Emily - the best of the lot by a mile, looks and sounds like a PM. How on earth is she the outsider?
    Fatal reputation. Fair or not she's not liked, while Starmer does not seem to provoke strong objections from major factions some comes out top - in a battle for the competent seeming candidate he gets the nod because of personality. RLB needlessly undermined herself at the start by going so strong on Corbyn loyalism that she will struggle to get an identity beyond that - and it wasn't necessary because she was always going to be the Corbynite candidate in this race. Nandy, well, she's tried to make waves but despite media and some union attention she doesn't seem like she is a serious contender as far as the selectorate are concerned.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698

    Labour 2020. Still arguing about Iraq.

    To be fair it should hang around the party's neck for the millstone it is.
    Iraq is ancient history for most voters, in the same way as the entire IRA issue did no harm either to Corbyn or Sinn Fein.

    If the Labour candidates really are having a Barney over it then this says more about the contemporary Left's maniacal obsession with the Middle East than anything else. They're clearly only interested in talking to the occupants of their little bubble, not the country.
    For them and us hopefully that will only be during this contest, but the views of most Labour members make that seem unlikely.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,155
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    Nigelb said:
    Ouch.

    That's pretty harsh.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    Despite the excellent efforts of @TheGreenMachine I just don’t understand this election. Is the final make up of the Dail still to be established or are we getting a reprise of the pre-election uncertainty?

    It looks like a total mess. The differences between FG and FF escape me but clearly there is no longer room for both or a deep desire for something different. I can’t see a government coming out of this. I think that they will be doing it all again very soon.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 168

    For the record, I didn't space it out like that. Looks horrible.

    Thank you GreenMachine, Your posts have provided so much context to the election and although i stayed far away from Betfair its been interesting watching the situation morph over the last weeks.

    What are your predictions for the next few months regarding the Oireachtas political wranglings?

    Your welcome @MightyAlex

    As for the next government, I'm not sure who it will involve. It's a proper lottery. I checked the odds earlier and FF/SF/GP and FF/FG/GP were both 3-1 joint favourites. Leo Varadkar was on the news earlier quoting "It's likely that I'll be the leader of the opposition, yes".

    Sinn Féin are trying to get the amount required (80 people) to form a lefter wing Dáil.
    @TheGreenMachine

    Cheers, would any of these potential coalitions be stable or is it a temporary truce?

    I know so little about Irish politics but this does seem to be a poor outcome especially when a posturing UK is determined to push at any perceived weakness.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,111
    My final ratings.

    1st Lisa - very articulate
    2nd Emily - assured
    3rd Keir - Blair waffly
    4th Becky - emotionless
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,284

    FPT

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Finland and the Baltic states are one hour ahead of Central European Time and Portugal one hour behind (like UK).

    That's a difference of East/West. Daylight savings is a matter of North/South more than East/West.
    I know, but you said "A proper European identity would transcend things like timezone differences."
    Indeed but in harmonising daylight savings the EU is doing that which Australia, America etc don't which is to harmonise across timezones daylight savings rules. Politicians from the South of Europe should not be voting on whether or not the North of Europe has daylight savings and vice-versa.
    Why not? They've done that for 20 years, because the benefits of co-ordination are so high compared to the benefits of deviation.
  • eadriceadric Posts: 2,004
    fpt for mexicanpete

    Effect of this (photos of Carrie on financially questionable holiday) on Bojo's reputation? Zero. Maybe less than zero,

    It's all priced in. We know he is a chancer. We know he is a liar. We know he is a terrible womanizer. In the era of multi-gender school toilets and post Iraq war Trumpistic disaster-ology, no one gives a fuck.

    Bojo's job is to Get Brexit Done, & make us forget about politics, & just Be There doing his silly posh shtick, and blah blah meh. Indeed the fact Boris has a hot young partner who entertains him on exotic holidays might even be to his advantage, cf Charles the Second after the Reformation (the Merrie Monarch). No one worried about Nell Gwyn, the gossip possibly cheered them up.

    Boris is likely going to enjoy a very extended honeymoon, simply because we are all bored of civil war. As Labour becomes ever more earnest under Starmer, that honeymoon might prolong further.
  • DavidL said:

    Despite the excellent efforts of @TheGreenMachine I just don’t understand this election. Is the final make up of the Dail still to be established or are we getting a reprise of the pre-election uncertainty?

    It looks like a total mess. The differences between FG and FF escape me but clearly there is no longer room for both or a deep desire for something different. I can’t see a government coming out of this. I think that they will be doing it all again very soon.

    The Dáil isn't made up yet and perhaps another election. 5-2 with Paddy Power.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,284
    DavidL said:

    Despite the excellent efforts of @TheGreenMachine I just don’t understand this election. Is the final make up of the Dail still to be established or are we getting a reprise of the pre-election uncertainty?

    It looks like a total mess. The differences between FG and FF escape me but clearly there is no longer room for both or a deep desire for something different. I can’t see a government coming out of this. I think that they will be doing it all again very soon.

    This is the final make-up. The two parties won nearly half the vote, so it seems that there is room for both. It's not a bad mess because FF-SF would ultimately command enough votes for a government, even if it needed independents. What unites FF-SF but not FF-FG is Irish republicanism, which you can think of as cultural nationalism and an attachment to the 19th century ideals of a smallholder agricultural society.
  • EPG said:

    FPT

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Finland and the Baltic states are one hour ahead of Central European Time and Portugal one hour behind (like UK).

    That's a difference of East/West. Daylight savings is a matter of North/South more than East/West.
    I know, but you said "A proper European identity would transcend things like timezone differences."
    Indeed but in harmonising daylight savings the EU is doing that which Australia, America etc don't which is to harmonise across timezones daylight savings rules. Politicians from the South of Europe should not be voting on whether or not the North of Europe has daylight savings and vice-versa.
    Why not? They've done that for 20 years, because the benefits of co-ordination are so high compared to the benefits of deviation.
    The benefits of co-ordination are not high which is why even real countries spanning comparable distances don't harmonise north and south to be the same. It should be up to each nation to determine if it wishes to harmonise or not.
  • For the record, I didn't space it out like that. Looks horrible.

    Thank you GreenMachine, Your posts have provided so much context to the election and although i stayed far away from Betfair its been interesting watching the situation morph over the last weeks.

    What are your predictions for the next few months regarding the Oireachtas political wranglings?

    Your welcome @MightyAlex

    As for the next government, I'm not sure who it will involve. It's a proper lottery. I checked the odds earlier and FF/SF/GP and FF/FG/GP were both 3-1 joint favourites. Leo Varadkar was on the news earlier quoting "It's likely that I'll be the leader of the opposition, yes".

    Sinn Féin are trying to get the amount required (80 people) to form a lefter wing Dáil.
    @TheGreenMachine

    Cheers, would any of these potential coalitions be stable or is it a temporary truce?

    I know so little about Irish politics but this does seem to be a poor outcome especially when a posturing UK is determined to push at any perceived weakness.
    Off Camera, a majority of T.D's are probably great friends.

    The Green Party likes​ everybody and everyone likes the Green Party.

    FF & FG worked alongside each other before, they're both the same wing (centre to right) so it could work again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    DavidL said:

    Despite the excellent efforts of @TheGreenMachine I just don’t understand this election. Is the final make up of the Dail still to be established or are we getting a reprise of the pre-election uncertainty?

    It looks like a total mess. The differences between FG and FF escape me but clearly there is no longer room for both or a deep desire for something different. I can’t see a government coming out of this. I think that they will be doing it all again very soon.

    FG is a bit more fiscally conservative than FF and FF is a bit more socially conservative than FG, otherwise there is little difference which is why SF has now taken the left of centre vote
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:
    Ouch.

    That's pretty harsh.
    Though 538 has a bit of interest and analysis on the origins of the KLOBUCHARGE



    The article also has Pete getting more support from non-whites than Biden. Perhaps that toxicity is exaggerated (Amy in the mix there too)
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,418
    I kept being suprised after each Dem debate that Klobuchar didnt see bigger polling bounces, she always seemed to be doing well to me.

    Turns out the polls were underestimating her big time, in NH by 8%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    stjohn said:

    My final ratings.

    1st Lisa - very articulate
    2nd Emily - assured
    3rd Keir - Blair waffly
    4th Becky - emotionless

    Of the 4 I could only see Starmer and Thornberry as PM after their Newsnight debate performance and Thornberry actually came out the most passionate and articulate, Starmer was more guarded as frontrunner and robotic
  • EPG said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite the excellent efforts of @TheGreenMachine I just don’t understand this election. Is the final make up of the Dail still to be established or are we getting a reprise of the pre-election uncertainty?

    It looks like a total mess. The differences between FG and FF escape me but clearly there is no longer room for both or a deep desire for something different. I can’t see a government coming out of this. I think that they will be doing it all again very soon.

    This is the final make-up. The two parties won nearly half the vote, so it seems that there is room for both. It's not a bad mess because FF-SF would ultimately command enough votes for a government, even if it needed independents. What unites FF-SF but not FF-FG is Irish republicanism, which you can think of as cultural nationalism and an attachment to the 19th century ideals of a smallholder agricultural society.
    The only thing is, they need 80 people so any two main parties plus the greens will be enough or the 3 main parties.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    edited February 12
    nunu2 said:

    I kept being suprised after each Dem debate that Klobuchar didnt see bigger polling bounces, she always seemed to be doing well to me.

    Turns out the polls were underestimating her big time, in NH by 8%.

    Punters take note (they were right on 12/1219 too):

  • HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite the excellent efforts of @TheGreenMachine I just don’t understand this election. Is the final make up of the Dail still to be established or are we getting a reprise of the pre-election uncertainty?

    It looks like a total mess. The differences between FG and FF escape me but clearly there is no longer room for both or a deep desire for something different. I can’t see a government coming out of this. I think that they will be doing it all again very soon.

    FG is a bit more fiscally conservative than FF and FF is a bit more socially conservative than FG, otherwise there is little difference which is why SF has now taken the left of centre vote
    @HYUFD

    Spot on. I don't believe Sinn Féin are as left wing as people imagine or assume.
  • isamisam Posts: 30,713
    HYUFD said:

    stjohn said:

    My final ratings.

    1st Lisa - very articulate
    2nd Emily - assured
    3rd Keir - Blair waffly
    4th Becky - emotionless

    Of the 4 I could only see Starmer and Thornberry as PM after their Newsnight debate performance and Thornberry actually came out the most passionate and articulate, Starmer was more guarded as frontrunner and robotic
    She had the confidence to wear a quite lairy outfit and pull it off. She reminded us of Caroline Quentin.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,284

    EPG said:

    FPT

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Finland and the Baltic states are one hour ahead of Central European Time and Portugal one hour behind (like UK).

    That's a difference of East/West. Daylight savings is a matter of North/South more than East/West.
    I know, but you said "A proper European identity would transcend things like timezone differences."
    Indeed but in harmonising daylight savings the EU is doing that which Australia, America etc don't which is to harmonise across timezones daylight savings rules. Politicians from the South of Europe should not be voting on whether or not the North of Europe has daylight savings and vice-versa.
    Why not? They've done that for 20 years, because the benefits of co-ordination are so high compared to the benefits of deviation.
    The benefits of co-ordination are not high which is why even real countries spanning comparable distances don't harmonise north and south to be the same. It should be up to each nation to determine if it wishes to harmonise or not.
    The EU already harmonises north and south to be the same. The USA example shows that the north-south business is just an excuse for a failure to efficiently co-ordinate. How will the UK prosper after Brexit if the response to new ideas to improve society is total rejection on the basis that it's a change?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 2,361
    edited February 12
    eadric said:

    fpt for mexicanpete

    Effect of this (photos of Carrie on financially questionable holiday) on Bojo's reputation? Zero. Maybe less than zero,

    It's all priced in. We know he is a chancer. We know he is a liar. We know he is a terrible womanizer. In the era of multi-gender school toilets and post Iraq war Trumpistic disaster-ology, no one gives a fuck.

    Bojo's job is to Get Brexit Done, & make us forget about politics, & just Be There doing his silly posh shtick, and blah blah meh. Indeed the fact Boris has a hot young partner who entertains him on exotic holidays might even be to his advantage, cf Charles the Second after the Reformation (the Merrie Monarch). No one worried about Nell Gwyn, the gossip possibly cheered them up.

    Boris is likely going to enjoy a very extended honeymoon, simply because we are all bored of civil war. As Labour becomes ever more earnest under Starmer, that honeymoon might prolong further.

    My tongue was firmly in cheek in a pre-me-too kind of way.

    Johnson, if he has lied (again) has serious questions to answer, he will undoubtedly get away with something that for any other politician might be career ending.

    As for your Starmer assertion, I believe anyone but Long-Bailey will give Johnson a run for his money through this parliament. Whether Johnson is returned in 2024 very much depends on how Brexit post December 31, 2020 works out.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 2,562
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:
    Ouch.

    That's pretty harsh.
    Though 538 has a bit of interest and analysis on the origins of the KLOBUCHARGE



    The article also has Pete getting more support from non-whites than Biden. Perhaps that toxicity is exaggerated (Amy in the mix there too)
    A good of the support from minority "x" in the US relates to the position of the community leaders of said group. The Bill Clinton built a deep and effective relationship with the leadership of the black community - hence the massive vote for him and later Hillary kept a good deal of that support.

    Biden had - for a while - the qudos of having been VP to Obama. That seems to have worn thin with the black community.
  • @rcs1000

    I'm assuming yous only have limited space?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,284

    EPG said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite the excellent efforts of @TheGreenMachine I just don’t understand this election. Is the final make up of the Dail still to be established or are we getting a reprise of the pre-election uncertainty?

    It looks like a total mess. The differences between FG and FF escape me but clearly there is no longer room for both or a deep desire for something different. I can’t see a government coming out of this. I think that they will be doing it all again very soon.

    This is the final make-up. The two parties won nearly half the vote, so it seems that there is room for both. It's not a bad mess because FF-SF would ultimately command enough votes for a government, even if it needed independents. What unites FF-SF but not FF-FG is Irish republicanism, which you can think of as cultural nationalism and an attachment to the 19th century ideals of a smallholder agricultural society.
    The only thing is, they need 80 people so any two main parties plus the greens will be enough or the 3 main parties.
    A lot of deputies were elected on Sinn Fein transfers. They will lose if there is a second election with more SF candidates. So those deputies will support a government. On the FF side there are a lot of deputies who just sail under the name of independents based on some local disputes. They could support a FF government. So you can probably add 10 to whatever number those two parties seem to have. Greens might not be needed - especially because they will ask for more carbon action that will be a bit of a downer for a change government looking for a feelgood factor.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:
    Ouch.

    That's pretty harsh.
    I thought I was quite measured...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    EPG said:

    FPT

    geoffw said:

    geoffw said:

    Finland and the Baltic states are one hour ahead of Central European Time and Portugal one hour behind (like UK).

    That's a difference of East/West. Daylight savings is a matter of North/South more than East/West.
    I know, but you said "A proper European identity would transcend things like timezone differences."
    Indeed but in harmonising daylight savings the EU is doing that which Australia, America etc don't which is to harmonise across timezones daylight savings rules. Politicians from the South of Europe should not be voting on whether or not the North of Europe has daylight savings and vice-versa.
    Why not? They've done that for 20 years, because the benefits of co-ordination are so high compared to the benefits of deviation.
    Point of order. In the US, states aren't allowed to change or choose their timezones, that is the prerogative of the Federal Government.

    Indeed, in California in 2018 had a referendum (Proposition 7) on joining Arizona in getting rid of Daylight Saving. However, so far the Federal Government has refused to accept the results of the referendum, despite its overwhelming support. (The same happened to Florida which also voted to get rid of daylight saving, and the Trump adminstration, in almost their first act in office, said No.)
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 2,200
    Nigelb said:
    She sounds like she'd do an excellent job of debating against Donald Trump. She exploited a rookie mistake by her opponent mercilessly, in a way that tied into existing preconceived notions about where his weakness might lie. Excellent politics. The Dems should totally pick her.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280

    @rcs1000

    I'm assuming yous only have limited space?

    Eh?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,528
    Tonight's nominations:

    Starmer 28
    RLB 11
    Nandy 5
    Thornberry 6

    So no sign at all of Starmer weakening.
  • eadriceadric Posts: 2,004

    eadric said:

    fpt for mexicanpete

    Effect of this (photos of Carrie on financially questionable holiday) on Bojo's reputation? Zero. Maybe less than zero,

    It's all priced in. We know he is a chancer. We know he is a liar. We know he is a terrible womanizer. In the era of multi-gender school toilets and post Iraq war Trumpistic disaster-ology, no one gives a fuck.

    Bojo's job is to Get Brexit Done, & make us forget about politics, & just Be There doing his silly posh shtick, and blah blah meh. Indeed the fact Boris has a hot young partner who entertains him on exotic holidays might even be to his advantage, cf Charles the Second after the Reformation (the Merrie Monarch). No one worried about Nell Gwyn, the gossip possibly cheered them up.

    Boris is likely going to enjoy a very extended honeymoon, simply because we are all bored of civil war. As Labour becomes ever more earnest under Starmer, that honeymoon might prolong further.

    My tongue was firmly in cheek in a pre-me-too kind of way.

    Johnson, if he has lied (again) has serious questions to answer, he will undoubtedly get away with something that for any other politician might be career ending.

    As for your Starmer assertion, I believe anyone but Long-Bailey will give Johnson a run for his money through this parliament. Whether Johnson is returned in 2024 very much depends on how Brexit post December 31, 2020 works out.
    Mad prediction:

    The Tories will suffer the usual midterm blues but they will be assisted by a Labour party led by the congenitally wooden Starmer. Scotland will remain a battleground, and bad for Labour, as the SNP modestly recede (yet still ride rather high due to a lack of rivals)

    Result? Boris, having delivered a flawed but non-dystopic Brexit, will be re-elected in 2024 with a smaller majority. He will go down in history as one of the more successful Tory PMs. Not quite Thatcher, perhaps a more libidinous Macmillan, with a dash of Oliver Cromwell.

    The UK will survive intact, but will continue relative decline vis a vis Asia, as is inevitable for all western nations. We will continuously argue about Masterchef v Bake Off.

    After that, all is lost in the estuarine mists of futurology, and we shall possibly become cyborgs commuting the airways as jars of brain plasma in automated Uberdrones.

    Nighty night.







  • EPG said:

    EPG said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite the excellent efforts of @TheGreenMachine I just don’t understand this election. Is the final make up of the Dail still to be established or are we getting a reprise of the pre-election uncertainty?

    It looks like a total mess. The differences between FG and FF escape me but clearly there is no longer room for both or a deep desire for something different. I can’t see a government coming out of this. I think that they will be doing it all again very soon.

    This is the final make-up. The two parties won nearly half the vote, so it seems that there is room for both. It's not a bad mess because FF-SF would ultimately command enough votes for a government, even if it needed independents. What unites FF-SF but not FF-FG is Irish republicanism, which you can think of as cultural nationalism and an attachment to the 19th century ideals of a smallholder agricultural society.
    The only thing is, they need 80 people so any two main parties plus the greens will be enough or the 3 main parties.
    A lot of deputies were elected on Sinn Fein transfers. They will lose if there is a second election with more SF candidates. So those deputies will support a government. On the FF side there are a lot of deputies who just sail under the name of independents based on some local disputes. They could support a FF government. So you can probably add 10 to whatever number those two parties seem to have. Greens might not be needed - especially because they will ask for more carbon action that will be a bit of a downer for a change government looking for a feelgood factor.
    Nothing bad about asking for carbon action, probably needed now.

    The thing is, greens and Sinn Féin are similar in some areas.

    That was a pretty bad election for Labour Ireland who were once the second largest party. They are too many parties in Ireland IMHO. The Irish public seem to like independents.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    fpt for mexicanpete

    Effect of this (photos of Carrie on financially questionable holiday) on Bojo's reputation? Zero. Maybe less than zero,

    It's all priced in. We know he is a chancer. We know he is a liar. We know he is a terrible womanizer. In the era of multi-gender school toilets and post Iraq war Trumpistic disaster-ology, no one gives a fuck.

    Bojo's job is to Get Brexit Done, & make us forget about politics, & just Be There doing his silly posh shtick, and blah blah meh. Indeed the fact Boris has a hot young partner who entertains him on exotic holidays might even be to his advantage, cf Charles the Second after the Reformation (the Merrie Monarch). No one worried about Nell Gwyn, the gossip possibly cheered them up.

    Boris is likely going to enjoy a very extended honeymoon, simply because we are all bored of civil war. As Labour becomes ever more earnest under Starmer, that honeymoon might prolong further.

    My tongue was firmly in cheek in a pre-me-too kind of way.

    Johnson, if he has lied (again) has serious questions to answer, he will undoubtedly get away with something that for any other politician might be career ending.

    As for your Starmer assertion, I believe anyone but Long-Bailey will give Johnson a run for his money through this parliament. Whether Johnson is returned in 2024 very much depends on how Brexit post December 31, 2020 works out.
    Mad prediction:

    The Tories will suffer the usual midterm blues but they will be assisted by a Labour party led by the congenitally wooden Starmer. Scotland will remain a battleground, and bad for Labour, as the SNP modestly recede (yet still ride rather high due to a lack of rivals)

    Result? Boris, having delivered a flawed but non-dystopic Brexit, will be re-elected in 2024 with a smaller majority. He will go down in history as one of the more successful Tory PMs. Not quite Thatcher, perhaps a more libidinous Macmillan, with a dash of Oliver Cromwell.

    The UK will survive intact, but will continue relative decline vis a vis Asia, as is inevitable for all western nations. We will continuously argue about Masterchef v Bake Off.

    After that, all is lost in the estuarine mists of futurology, and we shall possibly become cyborgs commuting the airways as jars of brain plasma in automated Uberdrones.

    Nighty night.

    That's a pretty uncontroversial forecast.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,528
    CLP Nominations

    @CLPNominations

    So far, 580 CLPs have nominated candidates to be leader of the Labour Party.

    Keir Starmer: 340
    Rebecca Long-Bailey: 149
    Lisa Nandy: 64
    Emily Thornberry: 27
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 5,528
    edited February 13
    CLP Nominations

    @CLPNominations

    So far, 578 CLPs have nominated candidates to be deputy leader of the Labour Party.

    Angela Rayner: 330
    Dawn Butler: 77
    Richard Burgon: 66
    Ian Murray: 54
    Rosena Allin-Khan: 51
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 404

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite the excellent efforts of @TheGreenMachine I just don’t understand this election. Is the final make up of the Dail still to be established or are we getting a reprise of the pre-election uncertainty?

    It looks like a total mess. The differences between FG and FF escape me but clearly there is no longer room for both or a deep desire for something different. I can’t see a government coming out of this. I think that they will be doing it all again very soon.

    FG is a bit more fiscally conservative than FF and FF is a bit more socially conservative than FG, otherwise there is little difference which is why SF has now taken the left of centre vote
    @HYUFD

    Spot on. I don't believe Sinn Féin are as left wing as people imagine or assume.
    Ten years ago they were eurosceptic and anti-abortion, they will turn on a sixpence if necessary.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,693
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    fpt for mexicanpete

    Effect of this (photos of Carrie on financially questionable holiday) on Bojo's reputation? Zero. Maybe less than zero,

    It's all priced in. We know he is a chancer. We know he is a liar. We know he is a terrible womanizer. In the era of multi-gender school toilets and post Iraq war Trumpistic disaster-ology, no one gives a fuck.

    Bojo's job is to Get Brexit Done, & make us forget about politics, & just Be There doing his silly posh shtick, and blah blah meh. Indeed the fact Boris has a hot young partner who entertains him on exotic holidays might even be to his advantage, cf Charles the Second after the Reformation (the Merrie Monarch). No one worried about Nell Gwyn, the gossip possibly cheered them up.

    Boris is likely going to enjoy a very extended honeymoon, simply because we are all bored of civil war. As Labour becomes ever more earnest under Starmer, that honeymoon might prolong further.

    My tongue was firmly in cheek in a pre-me-too kind of way.

    Johnson, if he has lied (again) has serious questions to answer, he will undoubtedly get away with something that for any other politician might be career ending.

    As for your Starmer assertion, I believe anyone but Long-Bailey will give Johnson a run for his money through this parliament. Whether Johnson is returned in 2024 very much depends on how Brexit post December 31, 2020 works out.
    Mad prediction:

    The Tories will suffer the usual midterm blues but they will be assisted by a Labour party led by the congenitally wooden Starmer. Scotland will remain a battleground, and bad for Labour, as the SNP modestly recede (yet still ride rather high due to a lack of rivals)

    Result? Boris, having delivered a flawed but non-dystopic Brexit, will be re-elected in 2024 with a smaller majority. He will go down in history as one of the more successful Tory PMs. Not quite Thatcher, perhaps a more libidinous Macmillan, with a dash of Oliver Cromwell.

    The UK will survive intact, but will continue relative decline vis a vis Asia, as is inevitable for all western nations. We will continuously argue about Masterchef v Bake Off.

    After that, all is lost in the estuarine mists of futurology, and we shall possibly become cyborgs commuting the airways as jars of brain plasma in automated Uberdrones.

    Nighty night.







    " Not quite Thatcher, perhaps a more libidinous Macmillan, with a dash of Oliver Cromwell." - that is exactly how I see him.
    Mainly Macmillan though. I keep being reminded of that picture of Macmillan on a tiny steam train. Of Macmillan liking to do things which were fun, and not things which were a bore. All very Boris.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    Endillion said:

    Nigelb said:
    She sounds like she'd do an excellent job of debating against Donald Trump. She exploited a rookie mistake by her opponent mercilessly, in a way that tied into existing preconceived notions about where his weakness might lie. Excellent politics. The Dems should totally pick her.
    If it doesn’t rebound on her.
    Problem is that it doesn’t confirm with her honest image, which might be important when you’re putting yourself forward to run against a notorious liar.
  • rcs1000 said:

    @rcs1000

    I'm assuming yous only have limited space?

    Eh?
    For the articles, mine is all jumbled up..
  • MikeL said:

    Tonight's nominations:

    Starmer 28
    RLB 11
    Nandy 5
    Thornberry 6

    So no sign at all of Starmer weakening.

    Forget about that, lol.

    Focus on something that isn't over yet.
  • dodrade said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Despite the excellent efforts of @TheGreenMachine I just don’t understand this election. Is the final make up of the Dail still to be established or are we getting a reprise of the pre-election uncertainty?

    It looks like a total mess. The differences between FG and FF escape me but clearly there is no longer room for both or a deep desire for something different. I can’t see a government coming out of this. I think that they will be doing it all again very soon.

    FG is a bit more fiscally conservative than FF and FF is a bit more socially conservative than FG, otherwise there is little difference which is why SF has now taken the left of centre vote
    @HYUFD

    Spot on. I don't believe Sinn Féin are as left wing as people imagine or assume.
    Ten years ago they were eurosceptic and anti-abortion, they will turn on a sixpence if necessary.
    Correct, Money talks with Sinn Féin.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,693
    Cookie said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    fpt for mexicanpete

    Effect of this (photos of Carrie on financially questionable holiday) on Bojo's reputation? Zero. Maybe less than zero,

    It's all priced in. We know he is a chancer. We know he is a liar. We know he is a terrible womanizer. In the era of multi-gender school toilets and post Iraq war Trumpistic disaster-ology, no one gives a fuck.

    .
    Mad prediction:

    The Tories will suffer the usual midterm blues but they will be assisted by a Labour party led by the congenitally wooden Starmer. Scotland will remain a battleground, and bad for Labour, as the SNP modestly recede (yet still ride rather high due to a lack of rivals)

    Result? Boris, having delivered a flawed but non-dystopic Brexit, will be re-elected in 2024 with a smaller majority. He will go down in history as one of the more successful Tory PMs. Not quite Thatcher, perhaps a more libidinous Macmillan, with a dash of Oliver Cromwell.

    The UK will survive intact, but will continue relative decline vis a vis Asia, as is inevitable for all western nations. We will continuously argue about Masterchef v Bake Off.

    After that, all is lost in the estuarine mists of futurology, and we shall possibly become cyborgs commuting the airways as jars of brain plasma in automated Uberdrones.

    Nighty night.







    " Not quite Thatcher, perhaps a more libidinous Macmillan, with a dash of Oliver Cromwell." - that is exactly how I see him.
    Mainly Macmillan though. I keep being reminded of that picture of Macmillan on a tiny steam train. Of Macmillan liking to do things which were fun, and not things which were a bore. All very Boris.
    This one (I'm struggling more than I expected to get the link to work, so apologies if it doesn't):
    Edit: This one. When I see Boris wrangling a cow or dangling from a zipwire, this is what I think of:
    https://images.app.goo.gl/vEnvKFriWXg5eBa49

    Also slightly surprised to see when you do a Google image search of 'Harold Macmillan driving a steam train' how many different images turn up!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    HYUFD said:
    I don't think that says what Frank Luntz says it does.

    If you believe in an omniscient, omnipotent deity, then how could they not know the consequences of evolution when when they set the world in motion?

    Evolution is, therefore, completely consistent with belief in God.

    Many Evangelical Christians believe that evolution as described by Darwin is wrong because it implies we are descended from monkeys.

    It is not clear to me why being descended from monkeys/apes is incompatible with God.

    The question, therefore, makes no sense unless you can tease out whether you fall into the evolution is all part of God's plan category or the evolution is utter rubbish, do I look like a chimpanzee category.
  • @eadric

    Nothing mad about that, my friend.

    Conservatives to win by a lower majority is pretty straightforward.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280

    rcs1000 said:

    @rcs1000

    I'm assuming yous only have limited space?

    Eh?
    For the articles, mine is all jumbled up..
    Not me, guv. Ask TSE or OGH.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    Cookie said:
    I'm assuming something in Eastern Europe is missing...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,693
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:
    I'm assuming something in Eastern Europe is missing...
    Quite a long way east...

  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,693


    What's your view, Green Machine? Are you from the north or the republic, and do you have an allegiance?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,174
    Endillion said:

    Nigelb said:
    She sounds like she'd do an excellent job of debating against Donald Trump. She exploited a rookie mistake by her opponent mercilessly, in a way that tied into existing preconceived notions about where his weakness might lie. Excellent politics. The Dems should totally pick her.
    Agreed. On the list of vital character traits facing Trump, the Democrats shouldn't feel they have to bother with delicate scrupulousness. I'm not in favour of the dark arts of misquoting and unfair personal attacks in general, but Trump needs to be taken on with ruthless cunning.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:
    I'm assuming something in Eastern Europe is missing...
    Quite a long way east...
    Cyprus?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,693
    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:
    I'm assuming something in Eastern Europe is missing...
    Quite a long way east...
    Cyprus?
    Bingo!
  • Cookie said:


    What's your view, Green Machine? Are you from the north or the republic, and do you have an allegiance?
    I'm in the North @Cookie.

    I don't really have an allegiance as such. There are good and bad in every party. I'm pretty open minded. I guess that maybe makes me pretty central.

    The problem I feel is, down south there are no centre alternatives.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,504
    edited February 13
    Endillion said:

    Nigelb said:
    She sounds like she'd do an excellent job of debating against Donald Trump. She exploited a rookie mistake by her opponent mercilessly, in a way that tied into existing preconceived notions about where his weakness might lie. Excellent politics. The Dems should totally pick her.
    And the equal and opposite applies to Mayor Pete. If her attack line is insubstantial, he should be able to defend and hit back. He seems OK for attack lines he's well prepared against, but he's vulnerable to audacity and chaos. Which is *exactly* what Trump brings to the table.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,693

    Endillion said:

    Nigelb said:
    She sounds like she'd do an excellent job of debating against Donald Trump. She exploited a rookie mistake by her opponent mercilessly, in a way that tied into existing preconceived notions about where his weakness might lie. Excellent politics. The Dems should totally pick her.
    And the equal and opposite applies to Mayor Pete. If her attack line is insubstantial, he should be able to defend and hit back. He seems OK for attack lines he's well prepared against, but he's vulnerable to audacity and chaos. Which is *exactly* what Trump brings to the table.
    What a depressing article. It's hardly the audacity of hope, is it?
  • @Cookie

    With my Irish political articles and review's, maybe more people will take a keen interest in Irish politics (North & South). That can only be a good thing.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 2,200

    Endillion said:

    Nigelb said:
    She sounds like she'd do an excellent job of debating against Donald Trump. She exploited a rookie mistake by her opponent mercilessly, in a way that tied into existing preconceived notions about where his weakness might lie. Excellent politics. The Dems should totally pick her.
    And the equal and opposite applies to Mayor Pete. If her attack line is insubstantial, he should be able to defend and hit back. He seems OK for attack lines he's well prepared against, but he's vulnerable to audacity and chaos. Which is *exactly* what Trump brings to the table.
    Well, maybe he'll learn from the experience. He's got a bit of time, and he seems a quick study. But really this is madness: Klobuchar with Pete as VP is (to me at least) obviously the best ticket out there by miles.

    And Pete's young enough that after 8 years of Amy he could even take a few terms off and then have a crack at the top job, if he wanted.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,693
    For those interested in petropolitics, this is interesting - albeit with the caveat that it is AEP's usual slant on things (though it is also my view): https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/12/stranded-fossil-states-next-traumatic-chapter-great-energy-shift/

    TLDR: Saudi Arabia is screwed within the next 15 years. Dealing with a failed state with a lot of wahabbis will be a challenge for the west. Nigeria is also rather screwed, which presents us with a problem because there's so many of them. Venezuela is screwed, too obvs. Russia and the UAE may, improbably, get away with it.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 1,693
    edited February 13

    Cookie said:


    What's your view, Green Machine? Are you from the north or the republic, and do you have an allegiance?
    I'm in the North @Cookie.

    I don't really have an allegiance as such. There are good and bad in every party. I'm pretty open minded. I guess that maybe makes me pretty central.

    The problem I feel is, down south there are no centre alternatives.
    I've always found ROI politics fascinating, in that it eschews the left-right pattern of almost every other democracy. I always perceived FG as infitessimally more economically right that FF, but as FG always govern in coalition with Labour this distinction is almost meaningless. Even the names are more impenetrable than those of most European democacies.
    I'd always seen FF as the centre party, if such a thing exists, but perhaps this is not so?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,504
    edited February 13
    Cookie said:

    It's hardly the audacity of hope, is it?

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,504
    Endillion said:


    Well, maybe he'll learn from the experience. He's got a bit of time, and he seems a quick study. But really this is madness: Klobuchar with Pete as VP is (to me at least) obviously the best ticket out there by miles.

    And Pete's young enough that after 8 years of Amy he could even take a few terms off and then have a crack at the top job, if he wanted.

    Yup, I wouldn't like to put him up against Trump but he'd be great at debating Mike Pence.
  • Cookie said:

    Cookie said:


    What's your view, Green Machine? Are you from the north or the republic, and do you have an allegiance?
    I'm in the North @Cookie.

    I don't really have an allegiance as such. There are good and bad in every party. I'm pretty open minded. I guess that maybe makes me pretty central.

    The problem I feel is, down south there are no centre alternatives.
    I've always found ROI politics fascinating, in that it eschews the left-right pattern of almost every other democracy. I always perceived FG as infitessimally more economically right that FF, but as FG always govern in coalition with Labour this distinction is almost meaningless. Even the names are more impenetrable than those of most European democacies.
    I'd always seen FF as the centre party, if such a thing exists, but perhaps this is not so?
    I'd say F.F are slightly​ right of F.G, not by much though.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,284
    edited February 13
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:


    What's your view, Green Machine? Are you from the north or the republic, and do you have an allegiance?
    I'm in the North @Cookie.

    I don't really have an allegiance as such. There are good and bad in every party. I'm pretty open minded. I guess that maybe makes me pretty central.

    The problem I feel is, down south there are no centre alternatives.
    I've always found ROI politics fascinating, in that it eschews the left-right pattern of almost every other democracy. I always perceived FG as infitessimally more economically right that FF, but as FG always govern in coalition with Labour this distinction is almost meaningless. Even the names are more impenetrable than those of most European democacies.
    I'd always seen FF as the centre party, if such a thing exists, but perhaps this is not so?
    It is such a small indigenous economy that normal left-right politics makes little sense. You don't have a large base of domestic capital for unions and bosses to fight over. You have a bunch of foreign-owned high-tech and tech firms that depend on how the USA and the EU are doing, plus a whole bunch of farmers and small businesses that depend on NI and GB. FF is literally in the centre in the sense that it is able to do business with all sides, because it doesn't seem to have strong beliefs. EDIT: I think the referendum plays a role in that, because a lot of the more controversial, Catholic-conservative beliefs of FF get dealt with outside the party political process through referendums.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280

    Endillion said:


    Well, maybe he'll learn from the experience. He's got a bit of time, and he seems a quick study. But really this is madness: Klobuchar with Pete as VP is (to me at least) obviously the best ticket out there by miles.

    And Pete's young enough that after 8 years of Amy he could even take a few terms off and then have a crack at the top job, if he wanted.

    Yup, I wouldn't like to put him up against Trump but he'd be great at debating Mike Pence.
    Actually, I think Trump vs Buttigieg would be a lot more interesting debate than Trump vs Klobucher.

    They are polar opposites: young vs old; military service vs none; thoughtful vs blunt; religious vs irreligious.

    I'd love to see it.

    Baemy vs Trump in a debate - frankly - would be boring. And I'm long Baemy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    Mighty electrical storm directly over the house right now. Power on and off....
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    rcs1000 said:

    Endillion said:


    Well, maybe he'll learn from the experience. He's got a bit of time, and he seems a quick study. But really this is madness: Klobuchar with Pete as VP is (to me at least) obviously the best ticket out there by miles.

    And Pete's young enough that after 8 years of Amy he could even take a few terms off and then have a crack at the top job, if he wanted.

    Yup, I wouldn't like to put him up against Trump but he'd be great at debating Mike Pence.
    Actually, I think Trump vs Buttigieg would be a lot more interesting debate than Trump vs Klobucher.

    They are polar opposites: young vs old; military service vs none; thoughtful vs blunt; religious vs irreligious.

    I'd love to see it.

    Baemy vs Trump in a debate - frankly - would be boring. And I'm long Baemy.
    Buttigieg had a desk job as an intelligence analyst, not actual military service, you can see it in his complete lack of physical training.

    And listeling to his speeches they are just a jumble of words that start with the same letter " we believe not in conflict but compassion, not confrontation but cooperation, not chaos but corsets".

    Also they are both atheists pretending to be religious.

    But he is definitely 35 years younger than Trump.
This discussion has been closed.