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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bloomberg moves upwards in the WH2020 Dem nomination betting

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    Sunak was a Leaver unlike Javid and will now have his Spads effectively under No 10 control, clear shift of power from no 11 to no 10
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FUCKOFFBLOOMBERG

    Keep calm.

    I was panicking over Biden and that turned out alright.

    Just how red are you with Bloomberg?
    2.5k
    If it helps, I don't think Bloomberg will win anything: and I'm puzzled as to why he is so short in the betting. There is either some secret polling nobody's told us about, or he's betting on himself. There are several precedents for the latter, the latest of which was the Leadsom Whale of 2019. So if I was in your position I would not be as glum.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,911
    Mr. Mark, oh, I think you'll find the joint Spad team will be fully operational by the time your successor arrives in the Treasury.
  • When Cameron said Cummings was a psychopath turns out Dave was underselling it.

    Dave hates AV:

    Allowing people into the UK parliament who did not finish first in their constituency was described by David Cameron as creating a "Parliament full of second-choices who no one really wanted but didn't really object to either."
    - David Cameron. "Why keeping first past the post is vital for democracy." Daily Telegraph. 30 Apr 2011
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 30,867
    edited February 13
    IMF better clear their diaries for around two years time.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,108
    When was the last CoE not to deliver a budget?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    Gove staying at Cabinet Offuce
  • FPT

    @TheScreamingEagles off politics you said recently that if Liverpool didn't release Mo Salah for Egypt in the Olympics then he could be suspended from playing for Liverpool - but this report seems to indicate that Liverpool are under no obligation to release him and its a decision for him and the club to decide upon? https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51483484

    Are you sure about the suspension? There's no threat of it in this article.

    There was a piece on the Echo site a while back, I’ll try and dig it out.
    If the Echo said that I think they are confused. I believe the rule is that any under-23 player selected for the Olympics is suspended from playing for their club for the duration of the Olympics but this rule does not apply to over-age players. As Salah is 27 he is an over-age player so would not be suspended if Liverpool refuse to release him.
  • When Cameron said Cummings was a psychopath turns out Dave was underselling it.

    Dave hates AV:

    Allowing people into the UK parliament who did not finish first in their constituency was described by David Cameron as creating a "Parliament full of second-choices who no one really wanted but didn't really object to either."
    - David Cameron. "Why keeping first past the post is vital for democracy." Daily Telegraph. 30 Apr 2011
    How many times are you going to post that Captain Non Sequitur?
  • FPT

    @TheScreamingEagles off politics you said recently that if Liverpool didn't release Mo Salah for Egypt in the Olympics then he could be suspended from playing for Liverpool - but this report seems to indicate that Liverpool are under no obligation to release him and its a decision for him and the club to decide upon? https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51483484

    Are you sure about the suspension? There's no threat of it in this article.

    There was a piece on the Echo site a while back, I’ll try and dig it out.
    If the Echo said that I think they are confused. I believe the rule is that any under-23 player selected for the Olympics is suspended from playing for their club for the duration of the Olympics but this rule does not apply to over-age players. As Salah is 27 he is an over-age player so would not be suspended if Liverpool refuse to release him.
    Thanks.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,813
    edited February 13
    What a mess, the chancellor resigning months after an election.

    Sunak is a party bot who will do whatever Boris says I guess.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383

    When Cameron said Cummings was a psychopath turns out Dave was underselling it.

    Dave hates AV:

    Allowing people into the UK parliament who did not finish first in their constituency was described by David Cameron as creating a "Parliament full of second-choices who no one really wanted but didn't really object to either."
    - David Cameron. "Why keeping first past the post is vital for democracy." Daily Telegraph. 30 Apr 2011
    How many times are you going to post that Captain Non Sequitur?
    Sunil is nothing if not unoriginal ;)
  • Am I the only one that thinks Chancellor Sunak sounds like a Star Wars character?

    Suni Rishak :lol:
  • FPT

    @TheScreamingEagles off politics you said recently that if Liverpool didn't release Mo Salah for Egypt in the Olympics then he could be suspended from playing for Liverpool - but this report seems to indicate that Liverpool are under no obligation to release him and its a decision for him and the club to decide upon? https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/51483484

    Are you sure about the suspension? There's no threat of it in this article.

    There was a piece on the Echo site a while back, I’ll try and dig it out.
    If the Echo said that I think they are confused. I believe the rule is that any under-23 player selected for the Olympics is suspended from playing for their club for the duration of the Olympics but this rule does not apply to over-age players. As Salah is 27 he is an over-age player so would not be suspended if Liverpool refuse to release him.
    Makes sense.

    I think it will come down to what Salah wants. If he wants to play in the Olympics I don't think Liverpool would refuse to release him. You don't piss off your stars like that.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 543

    Sunak confirmed.

    Looks like a massive No 10 power grab to neutralise the power of the Treasury (which no doubt was trying to block some of Boris's spending plans)
    About time, frankly. The status of 'The Treasury' as the real power in the UK government has led to endless friction and internal sabotage over the years.

    I bet Boris said: 'Did you think my title of First Lord of the Treasury was just for show?' :wink:
  • MaxPB said:

    Joint SpAd team. Wtf is this shit. Sunak should have refused.

    I'm not so sure.

    TB-GBs were terrible for the country.

    Cameron and Osborne being key allies in sync was great for the country.
    Apart from austerity which choked off the recovery, provoked Brexit and ended their political careers. Boris is running against Cameron/Osborne.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,687

    Boris Johnson evidently wanted Sajid Javid out. Don't be fooled into thinking this is Dominic Cummings' work.

    I wonder if we'll eventually settle into a Trumpist rhythm of having a reshuffle every couple of months due to some sacking or other. Boris seems to like a good purge.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,504

    the latest poll for South Carolina (pre-Iowa, just, so treat with care), has Steyer second on 19%

    It would be fun watching Bloomberg lose the billionaire lane
  • When Cameron said Cummings was a psychopath turns out Dave was underselling it.

    Dave hates AV:

    Allowing people into the UK parliament who did not finish first in their constituency was described by David Cameron as creating a "Parliament full of second-choices who no one really wanted but didn't really object to either."
    - David Cameron. "Why keeping first past the post is vital for democracy." Daily Telegraph. 30 Apr 2011
    How many times are you going to post that Captain Non Sequitur?
    You denying that your hearthrob Dave hates your flagship method of voting reform?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,832
    Papers are saying Javid was told he had to fire all his advisers and accept those chosen by #10. Standing by his staff is worthy of respect.

    I'm being stupid in hoping Priti Patel gets demoted/sacked aren't I? She was a headline seeking failure at dfid when not lying and undermining her leader.

    I just can't help but hope that Boris will see a kindred ultra ambitious soul and think, can't be having her too prominent...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383
    MaxPB said:

    Joint SpAd team. Wtf is this shit. Sunak should have refused.

    Boris wants a CofE who is entirely in his pocket.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,911

    the latest poll for South Carolina (pre-Iowa, just, so treat with care), has Steyer second on 19%

    It would be fun watching Bloomberg lose the billionaire lane
    I've got some big green next to Steyer so that'd be good. He does seem to have almost solely camped out South Carolina though so not sure how he is doing elsewhere.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    edited February 13
    Whilst I am concerned about the stability of the government I can't say that I haven't been a bit disappointed by the Saj. His Autumn Statement last year was an embarrassing affair where he frankly looked out of his depth. Stealing Boris's thunder on HS2 was simply stupid. He has shown no imagination or insight into our underlying problems with excessive consumption, consumer debt, balance of payments etc. or willingness to bring forward tax reform. The Chancellor should be a proper heavyweight like Lawson, Howe, Clarke even Brown, lord help us shaping the government. He seemed a bit lightweight to me. A pity.
  • When Cameron said Cummings was a psychopath turns out Dave was underselling it.

    Dave hates AV:

    Allowing people into the UK parliament who did not finish first in their constituency was described by David Cameron as creating a "Parliament full of second-choices who no one really wanted but didn't really object to either."
    - David Cameron. "Why keeping first past the post is vital for democracy." Daily Telegraph. 30 Apr 2011
    How many times are you going to post that Captain Non Sequitur?
    "Gentlemen, this is the day you will always remember as the day you almost caught Captain Sunil Prasannan!"
  • rkrkrk said:

    Papers are saying Javid was told he had to fire all his advisers and accept those chosen by #10. Standing by his staff is worthy of respect.

    I don't think I have ever heard anybody say anything bad about Javid. He seems a thoroughly decent man. The main criticism seems to be he is rather boring.
  • When Cameron said Cummings was a psychopath turns out Dave was underselling it.

    Dave hates AV:

    Allowing people into the UK parliament who did not finish first in their constituency was described by David Cameron as creating a "Parliament full of second-choices who no one really wanted but didn't really object to either."
    - David Cameron. "Why keeping first past the post is vital for democracy." Daily Telegraph. 30 Apr 2011
    How many times are you going to post that Captain Non Sequitur?
    You denying that your hearthrob Dave hates your flagship method of voting reform?
    No, Dave also thought pineapple was an acceptable topping on pizza. George is a Chelsea fan, I was prepared to overlook those minor flaws for the greater good.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 1,687

    IMF better clear their diaries for around two years time.
    Will Boris go top hat in hand?
  • Am I reading this right that Sunak is now favourite to be next Tory Leader?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234
  • I'm baffled by the surprise. So far the reshuffle is entirely consistent with all of Boris Johnson's past work. The wailing and lamentations of Conservatives just shows they have allowed themselves to be blinded by Brexit. Everything is about Boris Johnson. Get used to it.

    Are you a Doomster or a Gloomster, Alastair?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    What Boris wants, Boris gets.

    The power of a majority of 80.

    It better show results though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368

    rkrkrk said:

    Papers are saying Javid was told he had to fire all his advisers and accept those chosen by #10. Standing by his staff is worthy of respect.

    I don't think I have ever heard anybody say anything bad about Javid. He seems a thoroughly decent man. The main criticism seems to be he is rather boring.
    He did seem to care about balancing the budget. Cummings really wants to go full Trumpian on a spending spree.
  • Gove will be pissed off.

    He’s always wanted to be Chancellor.

    "It must have been Gove, but it's over now"
  • DavidL said:

    Whilst I am concerned about the stability of the government I can't say that I haven't been a bit disappointed by the Saj. His Autumn Statement last year was an embarrassing affair where he frankly looked out of his depth. Stealing Boris's thunder on HS2 was simply stupid. He has shown no imagination or insight into our underlying problems with excessive consumption, consumer debt, balance of payments etc. or willingness to bring forward tax reform. The Chancellor should be a proper heavyweight like Lawson, Howe, Clarke even Brown, lord help us shaping the government. He seemed a bit lightweight to me. A pity.

    The Saj's main job was to protect Boris from accusations of Islamophobia. Now the Prime Minister will need to promote a new Muslim human shield.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473
    Artist said:

    What a mess, the chancellor resigning months after an election.

    Sunak is a party bot who will do whatever Boris says I guess.

    Totally beholden to him. We could be seeing the start of something deeply unedifying and fraught with peril for our democracy. Mobster masquerading as Affable Clown.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,832
    MaxPB said:

    Joint SpAd team. Wtf is this shit. Sunak should have refused.

    That actually makes some sense to me.
    As Cummings should know, rogue SpAds can be terribly distracting.
    And Sunak should be absolutely delighted to have landed this gig, strings attached or no.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 543
    DavidL said:

    Whilst I am concerned about the stability of the government I can't say that I haven't been a bit disappointed by the Saj. His Autumn Statement last year was an embarrassing affair where he frankly looked out of his depth. Stealing Boris's thunder on HS2 was simply stupid. He has shown no imagination or insight into our underlying problems with excessive consumption, consumer debt, balance of payments etc. or willingness to bring forward tax reform. The Chancellor should be a proper heavyweight like Lawson, Howe, Clarke even Brown, lord help us shaping the government. He seemed a bit lightweight to me. A pity.

    Yes, he seemed unimaginative and lacking intellectual flair. Not what we need for this Parliament.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,911
    Bad news for those who backed Sunak. He won't be PM.

    [I backed Mr Thompson's tip. Sorry].
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    Rishi Sunak entered No 10 for his formal appointment as the new Chancellor
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    rkrkrk said:

    Papers are saying Javid was told he had to fire all his advisers and accept those chosen by #10. Standing by his staff is worthy of respect.

    I'm being stupid in hoping Priti Patel gets demoted/sacked aren't I? She was a headline seeking failure at dfid when not lying and undermining her leader.

    I just can't help but hope that Boris will see a kindred ultra ambitious soul and think, can't be having her too prominent...

    I thought Priti was confirmed in place?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 5,832

    Am I reading this right that Sunak is now favourite to be next Tory Leader?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    If so, that's a lay. He's not been promoted to advance his career any further than the current level.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    Am I the only one that thinks Chancellor Sunak sounds like a Star Wars character?

    Wrong franchise. Think Vulcan.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542

    I can't stop laughing.

    Cummings has managed to completely blow up Johnson's reshuffle, or he has engineered Javid out deliberately to make way for some loon who will do as he's told by Britain's leading complexity theorist.

    What you haven't considered is how this relates to China's lead in the AI gap as applied to neo-systems theory analysis.

    Classic Do.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473

    The Saj's main job was to protect Boris from accusations of Islamophobia. Now the Prime Minister will need to promote a new Muslim human shield.

    Correct. It was clear as day why he got the job. PC gone mad.

    Wonder who the Muslim promo will be?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562

    rkrkrk said:

    Papers are saying Javid was told he had to fire all his advisers and accept those chosen by #10. Standing by his staff is worthy of respect.

    I'm being stupid in hoping Priti Patel gets demoted/sacked aren't I? She was a headline seeking failure at dfid when not lying and undermining her leader.

    I just can't help but hope that Boris will see a kindred ultra ambitious soul and think, can't be having her too prominent...

    I thought Priti was confirmed in place?
  • The ex-Chancellor of the Exchequer.

  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 2,958
    It wasn't that long ago the people lamenting Javid's departure were expressing how he'd make a mediocre chancellor.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,504
    edited February 13
    Foxy said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Papers are saying Javid was told he had to fire all his advisers and accept those chosen by #10. Standing by his staff is worthy of respect.

    I don't think I have ever heard anybody say anything bad about Javid. He seems a thoroughly decent man. The main criticism seems to be he is rather boring.
    He did seem to care about balancing the budget. Cummings really wants to go full Trumpian on a spending spree.
    Huge unfunded deficit spending is the only way to make Brexit not look like an astonishingly shit idea, so if he needs to get rid of Javid to make it happen then it makes sense to do it, even if the short-term headlines are bad.
  • BromBrom Posts: 2,882
    Pleased for Sunak, held in higher regard than Javid by most in the know. Must say this has happened 6 months earlier than expected.
  • rkrkrk said:

    Am I reading this right that Sunak is now favourite to be next Tory Leader?

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160663234

    If so, that's a lay. He's not been promoted to advance his career any further than the current level.
    My logic in tipping him was that if Johnson got a large majority he could probably be PM for a decade so the successor could likely be someone of the 'next generation'.

    Sunak could be Chancellor for the next decade potentially if he doesn't screw this up. That would put him in prime slot to be next leader and how he got the promotion will be long, long forgotten by then.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 3,284
    Night of the wiff-waff bats
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542
    Pulpstar said:

    the latest poll for South Carolina (pre-Iowa, just, so treat with care), has Steyer second on 19%

    It would be fun watching Bloomberg lose the billionaire lane
    I've got some big green next to Steyer so that'd be good. He does seem to have almost solely camped out South Carolina though so not sure how he is doing elsewhere.
    He's doing well across super Tuesday states I think.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 5,679
    I've always felt that the Treasury was too powerful and needed putting in its place - so I'm pleased with this move.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited February 13
    Cabinet also got a bit posher as well as more Leavey.

    Sunak went to Winchester and Lincoln College Oxford and Stanford and was a Leaver, Javid went to a comp and Exeter University and was a Remainer
  • Anorak said:
    Your base isn't who you've pissed off, its numbers.

    He's got an 80 majority against a ramshackle opposition. I think his political base is strong enough for now.
  • What Boris wants, Boris gets.

    The power of a majority of 80.

    It better show results though.

    "Now, boy, witness the firepower of this fully armed and operational Tory majority!"
    [into intercom]
    "Legislate at will, Prime Minister!"
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 2,924
    MaxPB said:

    Boris Johnson evidently wanted Sajid Javid out. Don't be fooled into thinking this is Dominic Cummings' work.

    Indeed. Javid was clearly not signed up to increasing the deficit in a way tha Boris wanted to, for that reason Boris wanted him out.
    I think that's it, Johnson is going to want a CoE that will turn a blind eye to the amount of cash he's spending. No heavyweight Tory who is serious about fiscal responsibility is going to accept the job.

    He'll end up with 3 inexperienced lightweights in the 3 main offices of state so that he and Cummings can push them around. Kudos to Javid for resigning.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383

    new thread

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    viewcode said:

    Am I the only one that thinks Chancellor Sunak sounds like a Star Wars character?

    Wrong franchise. Think Vulcan.
    Too obvious.....
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 543
    edited February 13
    HYUFD said:

    Cabinet also got a bit posher as well as more Leavey.

    Sunak went to Winchester and Magdalen College Oxford and Stanford and was a Leaver, Javid went to a comp and Exeter University and was a Remainer

    A Magdalen Chancellor? TSE should like that!

    EDIT. Apparently it's Lincoln, not Magdalen. Boo.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    I wonder if we haven't actually seen the last of Sajid Javid.

    The PM still needs a President of COP26.....
  • NEW THREAD

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473
    So. The son of a bus driver is replaced at number 11 by a nice bit of posh.

    Oh deary me. What a message.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    "Chancellor Sunak!"
    "Yes, Captain Kirk?"
    "The Klingons are moving in. We think you should move to safer quarters"
    "Nonsense! I will die as a true Vulcan, just like my father Chancellor R'dmond before me."

    (There is a shout from downstairs)

    "Rishi! Lights out and go to sleep now!"
    "Sorry, mama-ji"
    "That boy will be the death of me"

    (The light goes out)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    On a personal level, I am quite delighted with Sunak's promotion.

    For reasons which may become apparent in short order (nothing to do with next PM).
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    What Boris wants, Boris gets.

    The power of a majority of 80.

    When the lion is hungry: he eats.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 18,067

    I wonder if we haven't actually seen the last of Sajid Javid.

    The PM still needs a President of COP26.....

    No way. Why would Javid repay treachery with loyalty? He'd have to be a complete idiot. If he wants a way back into government then he has to weaken Dom and get him sacked from the back benches, at the rate Bozza is picking up enemies it's becoming more likely than not.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 3,523

    Anorak said:
    Your base isn't who you've pissed off, its numbers.

    He's got an 80 majority against a ramshackle opposition. I think his political base is strong enough for now.
    All your bases are belong to us.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    viewcode said:

    "Chancellor Sunak!"
    "Yes, Captain Kirk?"
    "The Klingons are moving in. We think you should move to safer quarters"
    "Nonsense! I will die as a true Vulcan, just like my father Chancellor R'dmond before me."

    (There is a shout from downstairs)

    "Rishi! Lights out and go to sleep now!"
    "Sorry, mama-ji"
    "That boy will be the death of me"

    (The light goes out)

    We've already had the Head girl give the budget up here in Scotland in even less propitious circumstances. It will be interesting to see how the head boy does as well. In fairness the presentation in Scotland was rather good given the circumstances even if the content was meh.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    I will be very surprised if DC is still in post in 15 months time. In fairness he himself, in his famous advert, suggested that he might be redundant in a year or so.
This discussion has been closed.