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SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 18 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » My 760/1 shot for WH2020 raises $12m in 5 days after her strong New Hampshire Showing

Apart from Biden’s terrible performance and Elizabeth Warren only getting 9.7% of the vote the big surprise of last week’s New Hampshire primary was Amy Klobuchar’s strong third place which was well ahead of what the polls were showing. Her 19.8% vote share was well ahead of the 11.7% that she had in the RCP polling average of final polls for the state. That is some difference.

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Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    I wonder which PBer, and son of OGH, tipped her in a header?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    A marginally better header photo this time......
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    I'm sure everyone's seen the two Nevada polls that came out yesterday. One had Steyer leading, and the entire field in the 9-19% range. (And 13-19%, if you took out Warren.) The other showed Sanders first, Warren second.##

    You really couldn't get two more different polls: one has the progressives (Warren + Sanders) on more than 50%, while the other has them on just 20%.

    I suspect the former is nearer the truth (although I'd reckon they'll get perhaps 42-45% between them), and that Sanders has a healthy lead in Nevada.

    That being said, I also suspect that Sanders' will end up repeating New Hampshire and Iowa, and ending up in the high 20s. He's going to be top of the class (again), but without picking up the degree of momentum and the steadily rising vote shares that one would expect from someone coming into his third successive popular vote victory.

    I suspect that Buttigieg will end up also following the New Hampshire and Iowa path, and getting into the low 20s, with Klobuchar and Warren getting in the mid-teens.

    I don't expect Biden or Steyer to get any delegates.

    Of course, actual delegates will be apportioned according to Congressional Districts, so they could look somewhat different to raw votes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 33,197
    "Be warned. If my bet comes good you’ll never stop hearing about it!"

    In LibDem election literature......
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,469
    I've just realised this is 760/1 for the Presidency not for the nomination. I wish Mike luck. The odds are great but if it was for the Dem nom then it would be much more interesting.

    I can't see anyone defeating Donald Trump, including Klobuchar, with the possible exception of Mike Bloomberg. Which is why the President is launching attacks on him.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    It will be interesting to see if Bloomberg makes the debate:
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/17/mike-bloomberg-2020-election-115711
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,469
    Bloomberg did opt to hit back at Trump, who has repeatedly mocked the former mayor in a series of tweets. Bloomberg tweeted in response: “We know many of the same people in NY. Behind your back they laugh at you & call you a carnival barking clown. They know you inherited a fortune & squandered it with stupid deals and incompetence. I have the record & the resources to defeat you. And I will.”

    :smiley:



    Source: https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/sanders-opens-10-point-lead-nationally-bloomberg-surges-in-new-poll-1.8532701
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,469
    Trump fears Bloomberg.

    He doesn't give a scoobies about any of the others and nor should he.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    Klobuchar surge KLAXON?!
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,399

    I've just realised this is 760/1 for the Presidency not for the nomination. I wish Mike luck. The odds are great but if it was for the Dem nom then it would be much more interesting.

    I can't see anyone defeating Donald Trump, including Klobuchar, with the possible exception of Mike Bloomberg. Which is why the President is launching attacks on him.

    If Klobuchar gets the normination, her odds will probably go down to something like 3/1 and Mike will be able to lay off at an enormous profit.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,836
    Well, I've no dog in this fight, but none of the 70+ year old men in the race (on either side) impress me, either as politicians or as capable, although one of them, the incumbent, is an impressive campaigner.
    A woman in her late 50's with a record as effective, and moderate, Senator on the other hand......
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    The race remains a shambles with too many candidates. In particular the moderate vote is split between Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden (who is hanging around like a bad smell) and, at least on paper, Bloomberg. This is giving Sanders wins with modest shares of the vote. The field needs winnowed and it needs it now.

    The likes of Steyer is just another self indulgent distraction but Bloomberg is in danger of becoming the same. You cannot run a virtual campaign indefinitely. You need to get down and dirty, test your popularity and organisation, compete for votes and take part in the debates.

    Klobuchar is the one in the right age bracket, adequately experienced and not geriatric but as I was saying yesterday her and Buttigieg are fighting for the same smallish pools of voters and in danger of knocking each other out.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,911
    Good morning, everyone.

    She's very unlikely to win.

    I checked yesterday, and it turns out I backed her.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 17,836
    edited February 18
    DavidL said:

    The race remains a shambles with too many candidates. In particular the moderate vote is split between Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden (who is hanging around like a bad smell) and, at least on paper, Bloomberg. This is giving Sanders wins with modest shares of the vote. The field needs winnowed and it needs it now.

    The likes of Steyer is just another self indulgent distraction but Bloomberg is in danger of becoming the same. You cannot run a virtual campaign indefinitely. You need to get down and dirty, test your popularity and organisation, compete for votes and take part in the debates.

    Klobuchar is the one in the right age bracket, adequately experienced and not geriatric but as I was saying yesterday her and Buttigieg are fighting for the same smallish pools of voters and in danger of knocking each other out.

    Agree; perhaps a shame Buttigeig is another Mid-Westerner; he and Klobuchar might otherwise have made a good ticket. However, I dot suspect that there needs to be a bit more diversity among the candidates.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,191
    So sabisky has resigned and Chelsea lost.. a good 10hrs....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,155
    If Ruth stands down when/if her ennoblement is rubber stamped, we might get a by election.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743

    So sabisky has resigned and Chelsea lost.. a good 10hrs....

    VAR MOTM, what a defender, stopped 2 certain goals and happily missed a rather unfortunately placed kick by Maguire. Even as a United fan you have to question if this is adding or detracting from the entertainment.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,777
    Very interesting , he will be a shoe in , I also expect him to be next SNP leader.

    Angus Robertson: Why I hope to become SNP MSP for Edinburgh Central
    Edinburgh is a world-class city that should be the capital of an independent country, writes Angus Robertson as he announces his bid to become the SNP candidate for Edinburgh Central in the 2021 Holyrood election.
    Every resident who normally supports the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats and the Greens will have the chance to use their vote to get rid of the Tories and elect a progressive pro-European candidate from the SNP who will prioritise public services over Tory austerity.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743

    DavidL said:

    The race remains a shambles with too many candidates. In particular the moderate vote is split between Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden (who is hanging around like a bad smell) and, at least on paper, Bloomberg. This is giving Sanders wins with modest shares of the vote. The field needs winnowed and it needs it now.

    The likes of Steyer is just another self indulgent distraction but Bloomberg is in danger of becoming the same. You cannot run a virtual campaign indefinitely. You need to get down and dirty, test your popularity and organisation, compete for votes and take part in the debates.

    Klobuchar is the one in the right age bracket, adequately experienced and not geriatric but as I was saying yesterday her and Buttigieg are fighting for the same smallish pools of voters and in danger of knocking each other out.

    Agree; perhaps a shame Buttigeig is another Mid-Westerner; he and Klobuchar might otherwise have made a good ticket. However, I dot suspect that there needs to be a bit more diversity among the candidates.
    Whilst I can see that point many of the key states which Trump won by a hair's breadth are in that area. A ticket with strong roots there might be well placed.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,191
    DavidL said:

    So sabisky has resigned and Chelsea lost.. a good 10hrs....

    VAR MOTM, what a defender, stopped 2 certain goals and happily missed a rather unfortunately placed kick by Maguire. Even as a United fan you have to question if this is adding or detracting from the entertainment.
    Genie is out of the box. cant change it. I am not a Utd fan but I am always happy when Chelsea lose.. ;)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743

    If Ruth stands down when/if her ennoblement is rubber stamped, we might get a by election.

    Angus Robertson getting into the Scottish Parliament would really shake up the post Nicola leadership race. I think he would jump to immediate favourite. It's interesting that he thinks this pretty urgent.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,191
    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    rcs1000 said:

    I wonder which PBer, and son of OGH, tipped her in a header?

    Are we not all, in our way, sons (and daughters) of OGH? Praise his name.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,158
    OT - Portugal confirms it will retain all healthcare rights for UK residents post Brexit. I expect Spain to do the same. From their President and posted on Facebook.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    DavidL said:

    If Ruth stands down when/if her ennoblement is rubber stamped, we might get a by election.

    Angus Robertson getting into the Scottish Parliament would really shake up the post Nicola leadership race. I think he would jump to immediate favourite. It's interesting that he thinks this pretty urgent.
    I think if he gets in there’s a reasonable chance Sturgeon would be toppled. She’s under pretty severe pressure already.

    Robertson is a formidable figure. The SNP will be a lot stronger if he returns to Holyrood.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
  • DavidL said:

    The race remains a shambles with too many candidates. In particular the moderate vote is split between Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden (who is hanging around like a bad smell) and, at least on paper, Bloomberg. This is giving Sanders wins with modest shares of the vote. The field needs winnowed and it needs it now.

    The likes of Steyer is just another self indulgent distraction but Bloomberg is in danger of becoming the same. You cannot run a virtual campaign indefinitely. You need to get down and dirty, test your popularity and organisation, compete for votes and take part in the debates.

    Klobuchar is the one in the right age bracket, adequately experienced and not geriatric but as I was saying yesterday her and Buttigieg are fighting for the same smallish pools of voters and in danger of knocking each other out.

    Agree; perhaps a shame Buttigeig is another Mid-Westerner; he and Klobuchar might otherwise have made a good ticket. However, I dot suspect that there needs to be a bit more diversity among the candidates.
    Matt Tiabbi wrote a few days that this is going to be like 2016, with Bernie in the Trump role. The centrists are going to hanging around, no one's going to drop out, and in the meantime, Sanders keeps hovering up 25 to 35 percent.

    Nothing that happens this year would surprise me but that scenario would surprise me the least.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383
    We seem never to be stopping hearing about it already ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429

    Trump fears Bloomberg.

    He doesn't give a scoobies about any of the others and nor should he.

    Utter rot.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 52,698
    Robertson managed the feat of earning respect from his opponents, in a lot less grudging a fashion than many manage. Definitely an asset.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 971
    malcolmg said:

    Very interesting , he will be a shoe in , I also expect him to be next SNP leader.

    Angus Robertson: Why I hope to become SNP MSP for Edinburgh Central
    Edinburgh is a world-class city that should be the capital of an independent country, writes Angus Robertson as he announces his bid to become the SNP candidate for Edinburgh Central in the 2021 Holyrood election.
    Every resident who normally supports the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats and the Greens will have the chance to use their vote to get rid of the Tories and elect a progressive pro-European candidate from the SNP who will prioritise public services over Tory austerity.

    FILTH ?

    Failed In London Try Holyrood
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 25,383

    "Be warned. If my bet comes good you’ll never stop hearing about it!"

    In LibDem election literature......

    Lol

    ”As the betting expert who successfully predicted the 760/1 long shot for Democratic US President, I am writing to tell you that I am putting my money on the LibDem candidate in this Thursday’s Romford by-election......”
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,155
    DavidL said:

    If Ruth stands down when/if her ennoblement is rubber stamped, we might get a by election.

    Angus Robertson getting into the Scottish Parliament would really shake up the post Nicola leadership race. I think he would jump to immediate favourite. It's interesting that he thinks this pretty urgent.
    I think he's been looking for a parliamentary role for a while and Edinburgh Central is the one most likely to come up. Most interesting is why afaik he didn't bother with a Westminster constituency in December.

    I'm sure Ruth's sterling constituency work and numerous surgeries will work in favour of whichever Tory takes on that particular chalice.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,155
    TGOHF666 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Very interesting , he will be a shoe in , I also expect him to be next SNP leader.

    Angus Robertson: Why I hope to become SNP MSP for Edinburgh Central
    Edinburgh is a world-class city that should be the capital of an independent country, writes Angus Robertson as he announces his bid to become the SNP candidate for Edinburgh Central in the 2021 Holyrood election.
    Every resident who normally supports the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats and the Greens will have the chance to use their vote to get rid of the Tories and elect a progressive pro-European candidate from the SNP who will prioritise public services over Tory austerity.

    FILTH ?

    Failed In London Try Holyrood
    FELT

    Failed in Edinburgh try Lords Troughing
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    If Ruth stands down when/if her ennoblement is rubber stamped, we might get a by election.

    Angus Robertson getting into the Scottish Parliament would really shake up the post Nicola leadership race. I think he would jump to immediate favourite. It's interesting that he thinks this pretty urgent.
    I think if he gets in there’s a reasonable chance Sturgeon would be toppled. She’s under pretty severe pressure already.

    Robertson is a formidable figure. The SNP will be a lot stronger if he returns to Holyrood.
    He is miles ahead of anyone in the Scottish Parliament other than Nicola in terms of experience and presence. He might even take some of the rather unpleasant edge off the SNP with his avuncular style. He was a very good performer in the HoC.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368

    Trump fears Bloomberg.

    He doesn't give a scoobies about any of the others and nor should he.

    His fight with Bloomberg is just personal, nothing to do with electability. Never underestimate Trumps small minded narcissism.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 971

    TGOHF666 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Very interesting , he will be a shoe in , I also expect him to be next SNP leader.

    Angus Robertson: Why I hope to become SNP MSP for Edinburgh Central
    Edinburgh is a world-class city that should be the capital of an independent country, writes Angus Robertson as he announces his bid to become the SNP candidate for Edinburgh Central in the 2021 Holyrood election.
    Every resident who normally supports the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats and the Greens will have the chance to use their vote to get rid of the Tories and elect a progressive pro-European candidate from the SNP who will prioritise public services over Tory austerity.

    FILTH ?

    Failed In London Try Holyrood
    FELT

    Failed in Edinburgh try Lords Troughing
    Surely everyone would prepare to be felt that called filth ?

    That Nicla is on the way out seems to be catching on - it’s all about her legacy (NGO salary) now.
  • DavidL said:

    The race remains a shambles with too many candidates. In particular the moderate vote is split between Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden (who is hanging around like a bad smell) and, at least on paper, Bloomberg. This is giving Sanders wins with modest shares of the vote. The field needs winnowed and it needs it now.

    The likes of Steyer is just another self indulgent distraction but Bloomberg is in danger of becoming the same. You cannot run a virtual campaign indefinitely. You need to get down and dirty, test your popularity and organisation, compete for votes and take part in the debates.

    Klobuchar is the one in the right age bracket, adequately experienced and not geriatric but as I was saying yesterday her and Buttigieg are fighting for the same smallish pools of voters and in danger of knocking each other out.

    Agree; perhaps a shame Buttigeig is another Mid-Westerner; he and Klobuchar might otherwise have made a good ticket. However, I dot suspect that there needs to be a bit more diversity among the candidates.
    Matt Tiabbi wrote a few days that this is going to be like 2016, with Bernie in the Trump role. The centrists are going to hanging around, no one's going to drop out, and in the meantime, Sanders keeps hovering up 25 to 35 percent.

    Nothing that happens this year would surprise me but that scenario would surprise me the least.
    Bookies pay out on who wins, not who would have won if X had dropped out earlier and Y and Z formed an alliance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Very interesting , he will be a shoe in , I also expect him to be next SNP leader.

    Angus Robertson: Why I hope to become SNP MSP for Edinburgh Central
    Edinburgh is a world-class city that should be the capital of an independent country, writes Angus Robertson as he announces his bid to become the SNP candidate for Edinburgh Central in the 2021 Holyrood election.
    Every resident who normally supports the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats and the Greens will have the chance to use their vote to get rid of the Tories and elect a progressive pro-European candidate from the SNP who will prioritise public services over Tory austerity.

    FILTH ?

    Failed In London Try Holyrood
    FELT

    Failed in Edinburgh try Lords Troughing
    Surely everyone would prepare to be felt that called filth ?

    That Nicla is on the way out seems to be catching on - it’s all about her legacy (NGO salary) now.
    She’s been in office six years. She’s struggling with a weak front bench and several serious scandals. Her main policy has been blocked and her others are not going well. She’s riding on the fact her opponents are completely useless, and that there is no realistic alternative to her as FM. But right now she must be feeling the strain. I don’t think anyone could blame her for walking away. But that becomes easier if there’s a realistic alternative.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743

    DavidL said:

    If Ruth stands down when/if her ennoblement is rubber stamped, we might get a by election.

    Angus Robertson getting into the Scottish Parliament would really shake up the post Nicola leadership race. I think he would jump to immediate favourite. It's interesting that he thinks this pretty urgent.
    I think he's been looking for a parliamentary role for a while and Edinburgh Central is the one most likely to come up. Most interesting is why afaik he didn't bother with a Westminster constituency in December.

    I'm sure Ruth's sterling constituency work and numerous surgeries will work in favour of whichever Tory takes on that particular chalice.
    The SNP are unusual. For every other party leadership requires membership of the HoC as Swinson showed recently. For the SNP the HoC is a sideshow and you have to be in Holyrood. He is ambitious and rightly so. Those who could be contenders in London such as Black, Blackford and Cherry will not be in the game unless they move.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,503
    DavidL said:

    The race remains a shambles with too many candidates. In particular the moderate vote is split between Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden (who is hanging around like a bad smell) and, at least on paper, Bloomberg. This is giving Sanders wins with modest shares of the vote. The field needs winnowed and it needs it now.

    The likes of Steyer is just another self indulgent distraction but Bloomberg is in danger of becoming the same. You cannot run a virtual campaign indefinitely. You need to get down and dirty, test your popularity and organisation, compete for votes and take part in the debates.

    Klobuchar is the one in the right age bracket, adequately experienced and not geriatric but as I was saying yesterday her and Buttigieg are fighting for the same smallish pools of voters and in danger of knocking each other out.

    Maybe being picky here but it doesn't need to be winnowed *now*, it needs to be winnowed by Super Tuesday, 2 weeks from now.

    The problem is that I guess a contested convention can be a little bit self-fulfilling; For example, say you're KLOBUCHAR and your SURGE ends up fizzling out in NV and SC. At that point your campaign is basically hopeless. However if you keep going until Super Tuesday you'll at least get a bunch of delegates from Minnesota, who you may be able to trade for a job, maybe even the VP spot. What have you got to lose?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    If Ruth stands down when/if her ennoblement is rubber stamped, we might get a by election.

    Angus Robertson getting into the Scottish Parliament would really shake up the post Nicola leadership race. I think he would jump to immediate favourite. It's interesting that he thinks this pretty urgent.
    I think he's been looking for a parliamentary role for a while and Edinburgh Central is the one most likely to come up. Most interesting is why afaik he didn't bother with a Westminster constituency in December.

    I'm sure Ruth's sterling constituency work and numerous surgeries will work in favour of whichever Tory takes on that particular chalice.
    The SNP are unusual. For every other party leadership requires membership of the HoC as Swinson showed recently. For the SNP the HoC is a sideshow and you have to be in Holyrood. He is ambitious and rightly so. Those who could be contenders in London such as Black, Blackford and Cherry will not be in the game unless they move.
    Plaid as well - Adam Price is in the Sennedd.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,992
    DavidL said:

    So sabisky has resigned and Chelsea lost.. a good 10hrs....

    VAR MOTM, what a defender, stopped 2 certain goals and happily missed a rather unfortunately placed kick by Maguire. Even as a United fan you have to question if this is adding or detracting from the entertainment.
    The last couple of days have shown the problem with VAR. Martin Tyler moans that it takes away but doesn't give back, and that's a fair criticism. As Paul Gardner in World Soccer magazine says, the football authorities are pro-defence. VAR quite happily chalked off the Chelsea goal for the push by Azpilicueta, but it wouldn't give the penalty for the push by Fred.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743

    DavidL said:

    The race remains a shambles with too many candidates. In particular the moderate vote is split between Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden (who is hanging around like a bad smell) and, at least on paper, Bloomberg. This is giving Sanders wins with modest shares of the vote. The field needs winnowed and it needs it now.

    The likes of Steyer is just another self indulgent distraction but Bloomberg is in danger of becoming the same. You cannot run a virtual campaign indefinitely. You need to get down and dirty, test your popularity and organisation, compete for votes and take part in the debates.

    Klobuchar is the one in the right age bracket, adequately experienced and not geriatric but as I was saying yesterday her and Buttigieg are fighting for the same smallish pools of voters and in danger of knocking each other out.

    Maybe being picky here but it doesn't need to be winnowed *now*, it needs to be winnowed by Super Tuesday, 2 weeks from now.

    The problem is that I guess a contested convention can be a little bit self-fulfilling; For example, say you're KLOBUCHAR and your SURGE ends up fizzling out in NV and SC. At that point your campaign is basically hopeless. However if you keep going until Super Tuesday you'll at least get a bunch of delegates from Minnesota, who you may be able to trade for a job, maybe even the VP spot. What have you got to lose?
    I just feel super Tuesday is too late. By then there has to be a moderate champion who is consistently beating Sanders. If the moderate vote continues to split the way it is he could be out of sight by the time the moderates have chosen.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    If Ruth stands down when/if her ennoblement is rubber stamped, we might get a by election.

    Angus Robertson getting into the Scottish Parliament would really shake up the post Nicola leadership race. I think he would jump to immediate favourite. It's interesting that he thinks this pretty urgent.
    I think he's been looking for a parliamentary role for a while and Edinburgh Central is the one most likely to come up. Most interesting is why afaik he didn't bother with a Westminster constituency in December.

    I'm sure Ruth's sterling constituency work and numerous surgeries will work in favour of whichever Tory takes on that particular chalice.
    The SNP are unusual. For every other party leadership requires membership of the HoC as Swinson showed recently. For the SNP the HoC is a sideshow and you have to be in Holyrood. He is ambitious and rightly so. Those who could be contenders in London such as Black, Blackford and Cherry will not be in the game unless they move.
    Plaid as well - Adam Price is in the Sennedd.
    Yep, for the same reasons.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 971
    ydoethur said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    TGOHF666 said:

    malcolmg said:

    Very interesting , he will be a shoe in , I also expect him to be next SNP leader.

    Angus Robertson: Why I hope to become SNP MSP for Edinburgh Central
    Edinburgh is a world-class city that should be the capital of an independent country, writes Angus Robertson as he announces his bid to become the SNP candidate for Edinburgh Central in the 2021 Holyrood election.
    Every resident who normally supports the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats and the Greens will have the chance to use their vote to get rid of the Tories and elect a progressive pro-European candidate from the SNP who will prioritise public services over Tory austerity.

    FILTH ?

    Failed In London Try Holyrood
    FELT

    Failed in Edinburgh try Lords Troughing
    Surely everyone would prepare to be felt that called filth ?

    That Nicla is on the way out seems to be catching on - it’s all about her legacy (NGO salary) now.
    She’s been in office six years. She’s struggling with a weak front bench and several serious scandals. Her main policy has been blocked and her others are not going well. She’s riding on the fact her opponents are completely useless, and that there is no realistic alternative to her as FM. But right now she must be feeling the strain. I don’t think anyone could blame her for walking away. But that becomes easier if there’s a realistic alternative.
    Plus public services are on the plunge, she failed to take the once in a generation opportunity from Brexit, her political guru is looking at a stretch in C wing and her hypocritical sham of a private life is attracting sunlight.

    Reasons for her to stay on are thin.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 18,155
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    If Ruth stands down when/if her ennoblement is rubber stamped, we might get a by election.

    Angus Robertson getting into the Scottish Parliament would really shake up the post Nicola leadership race. I think he would jump to immediate favourite. It's interesting that he thinks this pretty urgent.
    I think he's been looking for a parliamentary role for a while and Edinburgh Central is the one most likely to come up. Most interesting is why afaik he didn't bother with a Westminster constituency in December.

    I'm sure Ruth's sterling constituency work and numerous surgeries will work in favour of whichever Tory takes on that particular chalice.
    The SNP are unusual. For every other party leadership requires membership of the HoC as Swinson showed recently. For the SNP the HoC is a sideshow and you have to be in Holyrood. He is ambitious and rightly so. Those who could be contenders in London such as Black, Blackford and Cherry will not be in the game unless they move.
    I think that's been the case for while for all the Scottish and 'Scottish' parties. Not the least duff thing about Jim Murphy's fleeting SLab leadership was that he thought being an MP rather than an MSP wasn't an impediment.
  • DavidL said:

    The race remains a shambles with too many candidates. In particular the moderate vote is split between Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden (who is hanging around like a bad smell) and, at least on paper, Bloomberg. This is giving Sanders wins with modest shares of the vote. The field needs winnowed and it needs it now.

    The likes of Steyer is just another self indulgent distraction but Bloomberg is in danger of becoming the same. You cannot run a virtual campaign indefinitely. You need to get down and dirty, test your popularity and organisation, compete for votes and take part in the debates.

    Klobuchar is the one in the right age bracket, adequately experienced and not geriatric but as I was saying yesterday her and Buttigieg are fighting for the same smallish pools of voters and in danger of knocking each other out.

    Agree; perhaps a shame Buttigeig is another Mid-Westerner; he and Klobuchar might otherwise have made a good ticket. However, I dot suspect that there needs to be a bit more diversity among the candidates.
    Matt Tiabbi wrote a few days that this is going to be like 2016, with Bernie in the Trump role. The centrists are going to hanging around, no one's going to drop out, and in the meantime, Sanders keeps hovering up 25 to 35 percent.

    Nothing that happens this year would surprise me but that scenario would surprise me the least.
    Bookies pay out on who wins, not who would have won if X had dropped out earlier and Y and Z formed an alliance.
    So you're saying there's no big market for counterfactuals here? :)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,503
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The race remains a shambles with too many candidates. In particular the moderate vote is split between Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden (who is hanging around like a bad smell) and, at least on paper, Bloomberg. This is giving Sanders wins with modest shares of the vote. The field needs winnowed and it needs it now.

    The likes of Steyer is just another self indulgent distraction but Bloomberg is in danger of becoming the same. You cannot run a virtual campaign indefinitely. You need to get down and dirty, test your popularity and organisation, compete for votes and take part in the debates.

    Klobuchar is the one in the right age bracket, adequately experienced and not geriatric but as I was saying yesterday her and Buttigieg are fighting for the same smallish pools of voters and in danger of knocking each other out.

    Maybe being picky here but it doesn't need to be winnowed *now*, it needs to be winnowed by Super Tuesday, 2 weeks from now.

    The problem is that I guess a contested convention can be a little bit self-fulfilling; For example, say you're KLOBUCHAR and your SURGE ends up fizzling out in NV and SC. At that point your campaign is basically hopeless. However if you keep going until Super Tuesday you'll at least get a bunch of delegates from Minnesota, who you may be able to trade for a job, maybe even the VP spot. What have you got to lose?
    I just feel super Tuesday is too late. By then there has to be a moderate champion who is consistently beating Sanders. If the moderate vote continues to split the way it is he could be out of sight by the time the moderates have chosen.
    He definitely won't be out of sight in terms of *delegates* by Super Tuesday, the number accumulated will be trivial and Bernie isn't even racking up crushing leads.

    The question is then whether he has lots of the legendary MOMENTUM, but I don't think he'll really be swept along by that, firstly because he's a known quantity and people who don't want him don't want him, and secondly because if the field has been winnowed that implies that there's is also a wining moderate, possessing the said MOMENTUM.

    Also most of the party bigwigs - potentially even Obama - have yet to play the endorsement card, which they can use to drive the narrative when they need to. But again, if the moderate side is still a mess by Super Tuesday, it's hard for them to do that before Super Tuesday.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,191
    TGOHF666 said:
    I think he would fail on "Just a minute". repetition
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    edited February 18
    TGOHF666 said:
    Clearly luck plays a part in anyone’s success. We all roll the dice every day. It’s important to remember that and be grateful.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542
    DavidL said:

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
    That's not what the "cannot be published for legal reasons" rumour the Sun printed though.

    This is the wacky stuff about Sturgeon living a double life at night.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Clearly luck plays a part in anyone’s success. We all roll the dice every day.
    People always are inclined to put their own successes down to hard work, and others down to good fortune. The reality is usually in the middle.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    edited February 18
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Clearly luck plays a part in anyone’s success. We all roll the dice every day.
    People always are inclined to put their own successes down to hard work, and others down to good fortune. The reality is usually in the middle.

    Absolutely, good health is usually a component in success. And that is large part down to luck. We’re all one random genetic mutation away from our grand plans and hard work being rudely interrupted.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited February 18
    Only 29% of Northern Irish voters support a United Ireland according to a new poll compared to 52% who want to stay in the UK, 99% of DUP and UUP voters want to stay in the UK as crucially do 70% of Alliance voters.

    92% of Sinn Fein voters and 81% of SDLP voters still back a United Ireland though

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,191
    edited February 18
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
    That's not what the "cannot be published for legal reasons" rumour the Sun printed though.

    This is the wacky stuff about Sturgeon living a double life at night.
    oo er missus.. one is intrigued.. Does she play duplicate in the evenings?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 988
    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Clearly luck plays a part in anyone’s success. We all roll the dice every day.
    People always are inclined to put their own successes down to hard work, and others down to good fortune. The reality is usually in the middle.

    What she should have said (maybe she did or that is what she meant) is that if you are successful you should take the credit for it. Not give the credit to the existence of a Conservative Government. In other words make the argument that (whether down to luck or judgement) that success would have come to you regardless of who was in power.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,304
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    If Ruth stands down when/if her ennoblement is rubber stamped, we might get a by election.

    Angus Robertson getting into the Scottish Parliament would really shake up the post Nicola leadership race. I think he would jump to immediate favourite. It's interesting that he thinks this pretty urgent.
    I think he's been looking for a parliamentary role for a while and Edinburgh Central is the one most likely to come up. Most interesting is why afaik he didn't bother with a Westminster constituency in December.

    I'm sure Ruth's sterling constituency work and numerous surgeries will work in favour of whichever Tory takes on that particular chalice.
    The SNP are unusual. For every other party leadership requires membership of the HoC as Swinson showed recently. For the SNP the HoC is a sideshow and you have to be in Holyrood. He is ambitious and rightly so. Those who could be contenders in London such as Black, Blackford and Cherry will not be in the game unless they move.
    Plaid as well - Adam Price is in the Sennedd.
    And Sinn Fein
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    HYUFD said:

    Only 29% of Northern Irish voters support a United Ireland according to a new poll compared to 52% who want to stay in the UK, 99% of DUP and UUP voters want to stay in the UK as crucially do 70% of Alliance voters.

    92% of Sinn Fein voters and 81% of SDLP voters still back a United Ireland though

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg

    And they are the ones most dismayed by Johnson creating a regulatorily unitary entity of the island of Ireland.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    If Ruth stands down when/if her ennoblement is rubber stamped, we might get a by election.

    Angus Robertson getting into the Scottish Parliament would really shake up the post Nicola leadership race. I think he would jump to immediate favourite. It's interesting that he thinks this pretty urgent.
    I think he's been looking for a parliamentary role for a while and Edinburgh Central is the one most likely to come up. Most interesting is why afaik he didn't bother with a Westminster constituency in December.

    I'm sure Ruth's sterling constituency work and numerous surgeries will work in favour of whichever Tory takes on that particular chalice.
    The SNP are unusual. For every other party leadership requires membership of the HoC as Swinson showed recently. For the SNP the HoC is a sideshow and you have to be in Holyrood. He is ambitious and rightly so. Those who could be contenders in London such as Black, Blackford and Cherry will not be in the game unless they move.
    Plaid as well - Adam Price is in the Sennedd.
    And Sinn Fein
    Sinn Féin’s leader sits in the Dail. Arlene Foster would be a better parallel.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
    That's not what the "cannot be published for legal reasons" rumour the Sun printed though.

    This is the wacky stuff about Sturgeon living a double life at night.
    oo er missus.. one is intrigued.. Does she play duplicate in the evenings?
    I'm sure the well adjusted Yoons on Twitter who were trying to organise a boycott of the Times for doing an interview with Sturgeon can fill you in.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,304

    DavidL said:

    The race remains a shambles with too many candidates. In particular the moderate vote is split between Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden (who is hanging around like a bad smell) and, at least on paper, Bloomberg. This is giving Sanders wins with modest shares of the vote. The field needs winnowed and it needs it now.

    The likes of Steyer is just another self indulgent distraction but Bloomberg is in danger of becoming the same. You cannot run a virtual campaign indefinitely. You need to get down and dirty, test your popularity and organisation, compete for votes and take part in the debates.

    Klobuchar is the one in the right age bracket, adequately experienced and not geriatric but as I was saying yesterday her and Buttigieg are fighting for the same smallish pools of voters and in danger of knocking each other out.

    Agree; perhaps a shame Buttigeig is another Mid-Westerner; he and Klobuchar might otherwise have made a good ticket. However, I dot suspect that there needs to be a bit more diversity among the candidates.
    Matt Tiabbi wrote a few days that this is going to be like 2016, with Bernie in the Trump role. The centrists are going to hanging around, no one's going to drop out, and in the meantime, Sanders keeps hovering up 25 to 35 percent.

    Nothing that happens this year would surprise me but that scenario would surprise me the least.
    Bookies pay out on who wins, not who would have won if X had dropped out earlier and Y and Z formed an alliance.
    But successful betters can make a profit by backing and laying at different prices, regardless of who wins.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,304
    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    If Ruth stands down when/if her ennoblement is rubber stamped, we might get a by election.

    Angus Robertson getting into the Scottish Parliament would really shake up the post Nicola leadership race. I think he would jump to immediate favourite. It's interesting that he thinks this pretty urgent.
    I think he's been looking for a parliamentary role for a while and Edinburgh Central is the one most likely to come up. Most interesting is why afaik he didn't bother with a Westminster constituency in December.

    I'm sure Ruth's sterling constituency work and numerous surgeries will work in favour of whichever Tory takes on that particular chalice.
    The SNP are unusual. For every other party leadership requires membership of the HoC as Swinson showed recently. For the SNP the HoC is a sideshow and you have to be in Holyrood. He is ambitious and rightly so. Those who could be contenders in London such as Black, Blackford and Cherry will not be in the game unless they move.
    Plaid as well - Adam Price is in the Sennedd.
    And Sinn Fein
    Sinn Féin’s leader sits in the Dail. Arlene Foster would be a better parallel.
    But they do have politicians elected in the UK General Election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Only 29% of Northern Irish voters support a United Ireland according to a new poll compared to 52% who want to stay in the UK, 99% of DUP and UUP voters want to stay in the UK as crucially do 70% of Alliance voters.

    92% of Sinn Fein voters and 81% of SDLP voters still back a United Ireland though

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg

    And they are the ones most dismayed by Johnson creating a regulatorily unitary entity of the island of Ireland.
    In retrospect it now looks a genius move by Boris, got the Withdrawal Agreement through and delivered Brexit, while preserving the Good Friday Agreement and keeping Alliance voters backing the Union and thus majority support in Northern Ireland for staying in the UK
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 2,690
    edited February 18
    TGOHF666 said:
    Adonis is like a Corbynista of the centre (whose continuing association with Labour baffles me other than as serving as a flag of convenience.) Continuing to back his man in the face of objective evidence that he is deeply unpopular and thus that renewed association with him would be a major drag on Labour's electoral prospects. And going on and on and on about it.

    Back in the Spring of 2017 there was a poll that found that amongst the electorate as a whole, Blair had a net favourability rating of -51, compared to -27 with Corbyn then. There may be more recent polling, but it's hard to imagine that people have revised their view of Blair since. Corbyn's ratings have since plummeted to the ball park of 2017 Blair levels, so they really do have something in common now, and neither is the answer to Labour's woes.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tony-blair-jeremy-corbyn-unpopular-labour-party-general-election-a7721561.html
  • Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Clearly luck plays a part in anyone’s success. We all roll the dice every day.
    People always are inclined to put their own successes down to hard work, and others down to good fortune. The reality is usually in the middle.

    Absolutely, good health is usually a component in success. And that is large part down to luck. We’re all one random genetic mutation away from our grand plans and hard work being rudely interrupted.

    I’d say it’s largely good fortune. I was lucky to have the parents I did, to grow up when the welfare state was in its prime, to meet the people I did and to go into business when I did. But I made the most of it!

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,777
    DavidL said:

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
    Robertson would be a much better FM than her and much much better for independence.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Only 29% of Northern Irish voters support a United Ireland according to a new poll compared to 52% who want to stay in the UK, 99% of DUP and UUP voters want to stay in the UK as crucially do 70% of Alliance voters.

    92% of Sinn Fein voters and 81% of SDLP voters still back a United Ireland though

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg

    And they are the ones most dismayed by Johnson creating a regulatorily unitary entity of the island of Ireland.
    In retrospect it now looks a genius move by Boris, got the Withdrawal Agreement through and delivered Brexit, while preserving the Good Friday Agreement and keeping Alliance voters backing the Union and thus majority support in Northern Ireland for staying in the UK
    It looks like an interesting move to establish a unitary entity of the island of Ireland which creates a direct pathway to a united Ireland.

    Not that I am against a united Ireland but I thought you might be less enthusiastic.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 26,777

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
    That's not what the "cannot be published for legal reasons" rumour the Sun printed though.

    This is the wacky stuff about Sturgeon living a double life at night.
    oo er missus.. one is intrigued.. Does she play duplicate in the evenings?
    It is the SUN, so you can be sure it is absolute bollox
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562

    TGOHF666 said:
    Adonis is like a Corbynista of the centre (whose continuing association with Labour baffles me other than as serving as a flag of convenience.) Continuing to back his man in the face of objective evidence that he is deeply unpopular and thus that renewed association with him would be a major drag on Labour's electoral prospects. And going on and on and on about it.

    Back in the Spring of 2017 there was a poll that found that amongst the electorate as a whole, Blair had a net favourability rating of -51, compared to -27 with Corbyn then. There may be more recent polling, but it's hard to imagine that people have revised their view of Blair since. Corbyn's ratings have since plummeted to the ball park of 2017 Blair levels, so they really do have something in common now, and neither is the answer to Labour's woes.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tony-blair-jeremy-corbyn-unpopular-labour-party-general-election-a7721561.html
    Blair was also not the only Labour leader ever to win a general election.

    Wilson, who Starmer named, won 4, Attlee won 3 and MacDonald won 1
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
    Robertson would be a much better FM than her and much much better for independence.
    I think one of the most telling points in his favour is how highly rated he is by everyone across the political divide. Sturgeon commands attention, but he’s actually highly respected and even liked in a way I don’t think she is. That’s a sign he’s not just successful but extremely good.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited February 18
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Only 29% of Northern Irish voters support a United Ireland according to a new poll compared to 52% who want to stay in the UK, 99% of DUP and UUP voters want to stay in the UK as crucially do 70% of Alliance voters.

    92% of Sinn Fein voters and 81% of SDLP voters still back a United Ireland though

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg

    And they are the ones most dismayed by Johnson creating a regulatorily unitary entity of the island of Ireland.
    In retrospect it now looks a genius move by Boris, got the Withdrawal Agreement through and delivered Brexit, while preserving the Good Friday Agreement and keeping Alliance voters backing the Union and thus majority support in Northern Ireland for staying in the UK
    It looks like an interesting move to establish a unitary entity of the island of Ireland which creates a direct pathway to a united Ireland.

    Not that I am against a united Ireland but I thought you might be less enthusiastic.
    The opposite, had Boris gone for a hard border with the Republic of Ireland there would be a majority for a United Ireland now as Alliance voters would back leaving the UK.

    Now Boris has ensured Northern Ireland's position in the UK for a generation by keeping Alliance voters backing the Union by avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland and ensuring Northern Ireland can enjoy both a soft Brexit and still technically staying within the UK to keep Unionists appeased
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
    That's not what the "cannot be published for legal reasons" rumour the Sun printed though.

    This is the wacky stuff about Sturgeon living a double life at night.
    oo er missus.. one is intrigued.. Does she play duplicate in the evenings?
    It is the SUN, so you can be sure it is absolute bollox
    Really? I thought it was tits in the Sun.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    edited February 18

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Clearly luck plays a part in anyone’s success. We all roll the dice every day.
    People always are inclined to put their own successes down to hard work, and others down to good fortune. The reality is usually in the middle.

    Absolutely, good health is usually a component in success. And that is large part down to luck. We’re all one random genetic mutation away from our grand plans and hard work being rudely interrupted.

    I’d say it’s largely good fortune. I was lucky to have the parents I did, to grow up when the welfare state was in its prime, to meet the people I did and to go into business when I did. But I made the most of it!

    Absolutely. You have to make the most of the hand that is dealt you, but remember with humility that any success you might have is owed as much to sheer luck and is always built on the hard work of others. You therefore have a moral obligation to share good fortune.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,203
    edited February 18

    TGOHF666 said:
    Adonis is like a Corbynista of the centre (whose continuing association with Labour baffles me other than as serving as a flag of convenience.) Continuing to back his man in the face of objective evidence that he is deeply unpopular and thus that renewed association with him would be a major drag on Labour's electoral prospects. And going on and on and on about it.

    Back in the Spring of 2017 there was a poll that found that amongst the electorate as a whole, Blair had a net favourability rating of -51, compared to -27 with Corbyn then. There may be more recent polling, but it's hard to imagine that people have revised their view of Blair since. Corbyn's ratings have since plummeted to the ball park of 2017 Blair levels, so they really do have something in common now, and neither is the answer to Labour's woes.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tony-blair-jeremy-corbyn-unpopular-labour-party-general-election-a7721561.html
    No, the best candidate to make life hard for the Tories (which is not always the same thing as giving Labour the best electoral chance, but you have to do this to collect votes later) was Emily Thornberry.

    She would have landed far more blows to the Tories and the leaders of the Tory party than any of the remaining candidates. She could have undertaken a substantial rebuild, refocus, reenergise and reconnect program for Labour.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,419
    "Law and disorder in Cambridge – whose side is the police on?

    A mob vandalises Trinity College – and the college authorities and police look away."

    https://thecritic.co.uk/law-and-disorder-in-cambridge-whose-side-is-the-police-on/
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    philiph said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Adonis is like a Corbynista of the centre (whose continuing association with Labour baffles me other than as serving as a flag of convenience.) Continuing to back his man in the face of objective evidence that he is deeply unpopular and thus that renewed association with him would be a major drag on Labour's electoral prospects. And going on and on and on about it.

    Back in the Spring of 2017 there was a poll that found that amongst the electorate as a whole, Blair had a net favourability rating of -51, compared to -27 with Corbyn then. There may be more recent polling, but it's hard to imagine that people have revised their view of Blair since. Corbyn's ratings have since plummeted to the ball park of 2017 Blair levels, so they really do have something in common now, and neither is the answer to Labour's woes.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tony-blair-jeremy-corbyn-unpopular-labour-party-general-election-a7721561.html
    No, the best candidate to make life hard for the Tories (which is not always the same thing as giving Labour the best electoral chance) was Emily Thornberry.

    She would have landed far more blows to the Tories and the leaders of the Tory party than any of the remaining candidates. She could have undertaken a substantial rebuild, refocus, reenergise and reconnect program for Labour.
    She still can. She is well suited to a tub thumping Party Chair / Deputy PM type role.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 12,992
    Just when you though football couldn't get any more ridiculous...

    https://tinyurl.com/uxddnbk

    Barcelona will trigger the €20m release clause of Leganes striker Martin Braithwaite this week, report Cadena Cope.

    The Blaugrana found out on Monday that they are allowed by La Liga to sign a contracted player from another Spanish club this month following a long-term injury for Ousmane Dembele, who will not feature again this campaign.

    This ruling has provoked some controversy, as Lega are now powerless to stop Braithwaite leaving but unable to sign a replacement themselves.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    Conservative pbers - it's ok to criticise Andrew Sabisky now:

  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 1,191
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
    That's not what the "cannot be published for legal reasons" rumour the Sun printed though.

    This is the wacky stuff about Sturgeon living a double life at night.
    oo er missus.. one is intrigued.. Does she play duplicate in the evenings?
    It is the SUN, so you can be sure it is absolute bollox
    Really? I thought it was tits in the Sun.
    You are soo last year.. I think that's the Daily star..
  • HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Only 29% of Northern Irish voters support a United Ireland according to a new poll compared to 52% who want to stay in the UK, 99% of DUP and UUP voters want to stay in the UK as crucially do 70% of Alliance voters.

    92% of Sinn Fein voters and 81% of SDLP voters still back a United Ireland though

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg

    And they are the ones most dismayed by Johnson creating a regulatorily unitary entity of the island of Ireland.
    In retrospect it now looks a genius move by Boris, got the Withdrawal Agreement through and delivered Brexit, while preserving the Good Friday Agreement and keeping Alliance voters backing the Union and thus majority support in Northern Ireland for staying in the UK

    Every political party and business group in Northern Ireland opposes Johnson’s deal. We’ll see how things look once it swings into force or, more likely, when he reneges on it.

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    Only 29% of Northern Irish voters support a United Ireland according to a new poll compared to 52% who want to stay in the UK, 99% of DUP and UUP voters want to stay in the UK as crucially do 70% of Alliance voters.

    92% of Sinn Fein voters and 81% of SDLP voters still back a United Ireland though

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg

    And they are the ones most dismayed by Johnson creating a regulatorily unitary entity of the island of Ireland.
    In retrospect it now looks a genius move by Boris, got the Withdrawal Agreement through and delivered Brexit, while preserving the Good Friday Agreement and keeping Alliance voters backing the Union and thus majority support in Northern Ireland for staying in the UK
    It looks like an interesting move to establish a unitary entity of the island of Ireland which creates a direct pathway to a united Ireland.

    Not that I am against a united Ireland but I thought you might be less enthusiastic.
    The opposite, had Boris gone for a hard border with the Republic of Ireland there would be a majority for a United Ireland now as Alliance voters would back leaving the UK.

    Now Boris has ensured Northern Ireland's position in the UK for a generation by keeping Alliance voters backing the Union by avoiding a hard border with the Republic of Ireland and ensuring Northern Ireland can enjoy both a soft Brexit and still technically staying within the UK to keep Unionists appeased
    You are misunderstanding the dynamics. Perhaps not helped by what I hope was an enjoyable visit to the Bushmills distillery when you were last visiting.

    Boris has made a deeper, strategic move towards a united Ireland because for all intents and purposes we will be treating the island of Ireland and Great Britain as two separate entities. There will be different regulatory regimes and therefore checks between the two. A bird in the hand, as they say.

    This will mean that over time those who want a united Ireland will have facts on the ground on their side which will increasingly come to strengthen their position.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
    That's not what the "cannot be published for legal reasons" rumour the Sun printed though.

    This is the wacky stuff about Sturgeon living a double life at night.
    oo er missus.. one is intrigued.. Does she play duplicate in the evenings?
    I'm sure the well adjusted Yoons on Twitter who were trying to organise a boycott of the Times for doing an interview with Sturgeon can fill you in.
    To be honest I have heard the rumours and it will be interesting if they become public
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 971

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
    That's not what the "cannot be published for legal reasons" rumour the Sun printed though.

    This is the wacky stuff about Sturgeon living a double life at night.
    oo er missus.. one is intrigued.. Does she play duplicate in the evenings?
    Time to shave the beard off ?
  • TGOHF666 said:
    I highly doubt it.

    I suspect the next Labour Prime Minister may be someone prepared to do that, but by then Blair will have been out of power for quarter of a century plus.
  • ydoethur said:

    Klobuchar surge KLAXON?!

    The Klobucharge !
  • malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
    Robertson would be a much better FM than her and much much better for independence.
    I agree and he is a much better advocate than Blackford
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 971
    Andy_JS said:

    "Law and disorder in Cambridge – whose side is the police on?

    A mob vandalises Trinity College – and the college authorities and police look away."

    https://thecritic.co.uk/law-and-disorder-in-cambridge-whose-side-is-the-police-on/

    It’s around 30 middle class white locals plus bussed in crusties.

    Cops should have indulged they on Sunday then opened the roads. Common purpose at work.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563

    Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Clearly luck plays a part in anyone’s success. We all roll the dice every day.
    People always are inclined to put their own successes down to hard work, and others down to good fortune. The reality is usually in the middle.

    Absolutely, good health is usually a component in success. And that is large part down to luck. We’re all one random genetic mutation away from our grand plans and hard work being rudely interrupted.

    I’d say it’s largely good fortune. I was lucky to have the parents I did, to grow up when the welfare state was in its prime, to meet the people I did and to go into business when I did. But I made the most of it!

    I wouldn't.

    If you're crap and you have good fortune that rarely works out. Unless someone very patient, who really loves you or your family, wants to do you a lifelong favour.

    You have to have a decent level of competence and ability. Good fortune is then about being in the right place at the right time, and influencing the right people, to get that promotion, shot or opportunity to show what you can do and establish your reputation.

    And, you have to keep working at it even then. You can't just switch off and go into autopilot or people (eventually) won't buy your products or hire you again.
  • malcolmg said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Whats all this about Nicola Sturgeon.. is it serious?

    The Salmond trial is next month. There is at least a suspicion that some of the complainers might well have gone to her for help and support and basically been swept under the carpet. She was deputy leader, her husband was running the SNP, she was closely involved with Salmond for decades, if the allegations against Salmond stand up it seems very, very unlikely that she didn't know and condoned this for the greater good.

    She commented at the weekend that the #metoo campaign had opened up her eyes to male behaviour that she had tolerated when she shouldn't have done. She seemed to be talking about a journalist at the time but Salmond can't have been far from her thoughts.
    That's not what the "cannot be published for legal reasons" rumour the Sun printed though.

    This is the wacky stuff about Sturgeon living a double life at night.
    oo er missus.. one is intrigued.. Does she play duplicate in the evenings?
    It is the SUN, so you can be sure it is absolute bollox
    Not sure Malc. I have heard rumours from multiple sources but I have no idea where this goes
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429

    Conservative pbers - it's ok to criticise Andrew Sabisky now:

    Had to get the line from Cummings first, no doubt.

    A bit like the BBC license fee story - the press are reporting that "senior Downing St sources are determined that it will be abolished"... while the PM is reportedly lukewarm on the idea.

    "Senior Downing St sources" are apparently running the country now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563
    Andy_JS said:

    "Law and disorder in Cambridge – whose side is the police on?

    A mob vandalises Trinity College – and the college authorities and police look away."

    https://thecritic.co.uk/law-and-disorder-in-cambridge-whose-side-is-the-police-on/

    It was a disgrace that they weren't arrested.

    Sadly, a reflection of the sympathies of the academics and the politicisation of the police, who would have been more concerned at not "alienating" a certain part of the community.

    If the EDL had tried this as part of a stunt to draw attention to how Cambridge colleges are trying to write out key parts of English history in their teachings, for instance, the Rozzers would have swept down quicker than you could say constable.
  • Conservative pbers - it's ok to criticise Andrew Sabisky now:

    I wanted his P45 from the first day I heard of him and said so on here

    I cannot and will not condone such disgusting views
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429
    edited February 18
    Andy_JS said:

    "Law and disorder in Cambridge – whose side is the police on?

    A mob vandalises Trinity College – and the college authorities and police look away."

    https://thecritic.co.uk/law-and-disorder-in-cambridge-whose-side-is-the-police-on/

    ..."are the Police", surely ?

    As anyone who has suffered a house burglary will be well aware, the Police aren't particularly interested in investigating crimes against property.

    (And if you're the victim of fraud, they are more interesting in making you think it will be investigated when it almost certainly won't.)
  • philiph said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Adonis is like a Corbynista of the centre (whose continuing association with Labour baffles me other than as serving as a flag of convenience.) Continuing to back his man in the face of objective evidence that he is deeply unpopular and thus that renewed association with him would be a major drag on Labour's electoral prospects. And going on and on and on about it.

    Back in the Spring of 2017 there was a poll that found that amongst the electorate as a whole, Blair had a net favourability rating of -51, compared to -27 with Corbyn then. There may be more recent polling, but it's hard to imagine that people have revised their view of Blair since. Corbyn's ratings have since plummeted to the ball park of 2017 Blair levels, so they really do have something in common now, and neither is the answer to Labour's woes.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tony-blair-jeremy-corbyn-unpopular-labour-party-general-election-a7721561.html
    No, the best candidate to make life hard for the Tories (which is not always the same thing as giving Labour the best electoral chance, but you have to do this to collect votes later) was Emily Thornberry.

    She would have landed far more blows to the Tories and the leaders of the Tory party than any of the remaining candidates. She could have undertaken a substantial rebuild, refocus, reenergise and reconnect program for Labour.
    You're right, if Lady Nugee had become Labour leader the Tories would have been in serious danger of laughing themselves to death.
  • Jonathan said:

    Foxy said:

    Jonathan said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    Clearly luck plays a part in anyone’s success. We all roll the dice every day.
    People always are inclined to put their own successes down to hard work, and others down to good fortune. The reality is usually in the middle.

    Absolutely, good health is usually a component in success. And that is large part down to luck. We’re all one random genetic mutation away from our grand plans and hard work being rudely interrupted.

    I’d say it’s largely good fortune. I was lucky to have the parents I did, to grow up when the welfare state was in its prime, to meet the people I did and to go into business when I did. But I made the most of it!

    I wouldn't.

    If you're crap and you have good fortune that rarely works out. Unless someone very patient, who really loves you or your family, wants to do you a lifelong favour.

    You have to have a decent level of competence and ability. Good fortune is then about being in the right place at the right time, and influencing the right people, to get that promotion, shot or opportunity to show what you can do and establish your reputation.

    And, you have to keep working at it even then. You can't just switch off and go into autopilot or people (eventually) won't buy your products or hire you again.

    I just don’t believe I am the smartest, hardest-working member of my family ever born. I just think I have been the luckiest. Give my parents, grandparents and those before them the opportunities and circumstances I had and they would have taken them, too.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429

    Conservative pbers - it's ok to criticise Andrew Sabisky now:

    I wanted his P45 from the first day I heard of him and said so on here

    I cannot and will not condone such disgusting views
    Kwarteng's not quite that bad, surely ?
This discussion has been closed.