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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate Bernie as an 84% chance in Nevada but level peggi

SystemSystem Posts: 6,666
edited February 18 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters rate Bernie as an 84% chance in Nevada but level pegging with Biden in S Carolina

These are the latest charts from Betdata.io on the next two Democratic primaries in WH2020. Essentially they show how punters who are risking their cash are rating these two races.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 3,763
    Where exactly is this younger candidate going to "emerge" from? If anything a centrist will have even more competition once Bloomberg is in the race
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 10,319
    FPT:

    So it's the sodomites AND the EU that's causing the flooding.

    The EU does not specifically prevent dredging, neither does it recommend dredging. Dredging is allowed in the UK although the four environmental regulators prefer not to do so in order to protect wildlife.
    @Mexicanpete, assuming you're in the know, what form does the EU's 'non-recommendation' of dredging take? The EU has a lot of form on enforcing unpopular poplicies through (admittedly willing) national organisations. Especially regarding water.
    In a nutshell the EU might fine you if you dredge and disturb prescribed wildlife/habitats. So it doesn't blanket ban dredging but if you dredge and upset the Great Crested Newts you could be in big trouble.

    The argument often used by anti-EU types is that flooding as we are currently experiencing is the fault of the EU who stop us from dredging rivers and streams. This is not really true, however it sounds better than saying we don't dredge much because the Environment Agency, Sepa, NRW and NIEA are woefully underfunded.
    A quick Google tells me that an EU directive made several changes in the European Water Framework Directive that make dredging many times harder and more expensive. The designation of dredged silt as 'waste' rather than product that prevents it from being left on river banks for example, and the fact that any proposed dredging appears to require an extensive report to be submitted before it can be considered - that's quite apart from whether you're upsetting the newts or not. So it doesn't 'sound better', it is true. Yes, the directive has been gleefully implemented by overzealous UK agencies, but that was ever the case with EU regulation.

    And it isn't just readers of the Daily Mail who are incensed, clearly the problem extends to Ireland too: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/floods-eu-laws-not-to-blame-insists-european-commission-1.2485660

    Once again, the EU issues a clear line, leaves the implementation to national Governments and agencies, ducks all responsibility when it comes to specifics -'Prevent dredging - moi?' and allows its fanboys as seen on the threads here to mock those crazy 'anti-EU types' who are actually making perfectly sensible cause and effect arguments. And then has the nerve to say that the EU has been unfairly maligned over the years!

    If Boris has a shred of sense, he will DREDGE as soon as can be arranged, and he will tell people quite rightly that it is adherence to EU regulations that has restricted this activity up to now. It demonstrates just about everything he stands for.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    3rd, like, well, if I could predict the places in Nevada caucuses I’d be a rich man next week!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited February 18
    On current national polls only Sanders, Bloomberg and Biden are still in contention and all are over 70, so it may be OGH's hopes for a younger centrist to emerge will not come to fruition.

    It should be noted you have to go back to 1992 to find the last candidate nominated to take on an incumbent president who was under 60

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563
    My dream is for Buttigieg to VP to a Klobuchar ticket.

    I reckon that'd be quite an attractive ticket for the general too.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743

    My dream is for Buttigieg to VP to a Klobuchar ticket.

    I reckon that'd be quite an attractive ticket for the general too.

    Or the other way around. They should toss a coin and agree this before it is too late for them both.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,975

    My dream is for Buttigieg to VP to a Klobuchar ticket.

    I reckon that'd be quite an attractive ticket for the general too.

    Mine too. At some stage these two have to get together and Buttigieg would set himself up a presidential candidate for the future
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited February 18
    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    FPT:

    .
    In a nutshell the EU might fine you if you dredge and disturb prescribed wildlife/habitats. So it doesn't blanket ban dredging but if you dredge and upset the Great Crested Newts you could be in big trouble.

    The argument often used by anti-EU types is that flooding as we are currently experiencing is the fault of the EU who stop us from dredging rivers and streams. This is not really true, however it sounds better than saying we don't dredge much because the Environment Agency, Sepa, NRW and NIEA are woefully underfunded.
    A quick Google tells me that an EU directive made several changes in the European Water Framework Directive that make dredging many times harder and more expensive. The designation of dredged silt as 'waste' rather than product that prevents it from being left on river banks for example, and the fact that any proposed dredging appears to require an extensive report to be submitted before it can be considered - that's quite apart from whether you're upsetting the newts or not. So it doesn't 'sound better', it is true. Yes, the directive has been gleefully implemented by overzealous UK agencies, but that was ever the case with EU regulation.

    And it isn't just readers of the Daily Mail who are incensed, clearly the problem extends to Ireland too: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/floods-eu-laws-not-to-blame-insists-european-commission-1.2485660

    Once again, the EU issues a clear line, leaves the implementation to national Governments and agencies, ducks all responsibility when it comes to specifics -'Prevent dredging - moi?' and allows its fanboys as seen on the threads here to mock those crazy 'anti-EU types' who are actually making perfectly sensible cause and effect arguments. And then has the nerve to say that the EU has been unfairly maligned over the years!

    If Boris has a shred of sense, he will DREDGE as soon as can be arranged, and he will tell people quite rightly that it is adherence to EU regulations that has restricted this activity up to now. It demonstrates just about everything he stands for.
    Private Eye has a long line of stories about EU directives on waterways. Some of them are utterly bonkers in the U.K. but make sense elsewhere in Europe, and others are gold-plated by the British civil service for whatever reasons.

    But the net result is that dredging of waterways by the EA has become almost impossible, and there are now more floods every winter and spring.

    It shouldn’t be a difficult decision for government to use emergency legislation to restart the dredging, while blaming the EU directives for the problem.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,911
    Like the latter days of the Western Roman Empire, there seems to be an inexhaustible supply of unsuitable leadership candidates.

    Mr. HYUFD, that's bloody ridiculous of Barnier and the EU.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    edited February 18
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.
    Actually, we will get this crap until October when both sides absentmindedly waltz to no deal because they are both very arrogant and think the other side will blink.

    I hope the EU know what risks they’re running. The Euro might not survive another nasty recession.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    My dream is for Buttigieg to VP to a Klobuchar ticket.

    I reckon that'd be quite an attractive ticket for the general too.

    The two of them are in a Prisoners’ Dilemma situation.

    If they both continue to stand they’ll get nowhere, but right now Buttigeig is ahead in the polling and early results, so he has no incentive to stand down and back Klobuchar.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562

    Like the latter days of the Western Roman Empire, there seems to be an inexhaustible supply of unsuitable leadership candidates.

    Mr. HYUFD, that's bloody ridiculous of Barnier and the EU.

    It is but there we go, prepare for full, hard Brexit in December
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.
    Agreed, Boris must stick to his guns, if they won't offer us the same terms as Canada, Japan or South Korea, WTO terms it will have to be
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    edited February 18
    Average wages exceed 2008 at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521

    I have been doing a bit of digging into this. The number of people doing gig economy type work has pretty much doubled over the last 3 years alone. Gig workers earn something like £7.50 an hour on average, below the minimum wage. The move to casual labour on such a scale (now nearly 10% of the workforce) has undoubtedly driven down average incomes by a significant amount. It has also, of course, held down unemployment.

    There are a range of issues here, few of them good. Gig workers don't get work place pensions, sick pay, maternity pay, holiday pay etc. The loss of these rights means that they live very much hand to mouth with minimal savings and are much more dependent than average on state benefits.
    Businesses don't, as a whole, invest in training gig workers (Uber is a bit of an exception but that seems connected with their attempt to get their London licence back). It is therefore a downward pressure on productivity as well at a time when that is one of our largest concerns. Training, in so far as it is done at all, is contracted out to the State, colleges etc who pick up the tab.
    Given their income levels (and the lack of recovery in the absence of PAYE) gig workers will pay much less tax than those in FT employment increasing the burden on those who are paying taxes.

    None of this strikes me as a good deal for UK plc. I think we need to take a series of positive steps to put the costs back on those who are benefiting from the casual labour and off the taxpayer. EU Employment law had the concept of the worker who was less than an employee but has certain rights. I think we need to look to extend this so that gig workers engaged over a certain qualifying period qualify for sick pay, holiday pay, etc. We also need to require employers to pay something equivalent to Employers NI so that employees are on a level playing field. I would also increase the tax reliefs for training beyond 100% to incentivise firms to engage in it.

    We want a high wage, high productivity economy. This is a strong trend in the wrong direction.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    Meanwhile, Betfair still has an open market on the Iowa caucuses from a fortnight ago:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/27538433/market?marketId=1.161392765

    Are we expecting bets on Nevada to also take weeks to pay out, if they don’t end in a void market?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.
    Agreed, Boris must stick to his guns, if they won't offer us the same terms as Canada, Japan or South Korea, WTO terms it will have to be
    Will be glad to be here to see what happens so it’s all becoming irrelevant
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 990
    To be honest I don’t really understand some of the more hardline comments coming out of the EU at the moment. The one the other day about both sides tearing each other to bits a particularly strange example. Trade negotiations happen because both sides see them as mutually beneficial. If you enter into them expecting them to be mutually destructive what’s the point? The British may have started this, but they are the ones sounding reasonable at the moment. Even if deluded.

    You get the impression that some in the EU haven’t come to terms with the new legal status quo. There is no “the best deal we have is the current one” option any more. And the Conservative majority means that no deal will almost certainly happen if the Government decides so. On a slightly better prepared basis than it might have previously.

    Maybe some in the EU have decided that a trade deal won’t happen and are giving early warning to member states to come to their own accommodations with the U.K.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 1,409
    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.
    Agreed, Boris must stick to his guns, if they won't offer us the same terms as Canada, Japan or South Korea, WTO terms it will have to be
    Will be glad to be here to see what happens so it’s all becoming irrelevant
    *very* sorry to hear that.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 2,470
    Mike's argument is that Biden is constantly over-rated in the polls vis a vis actual performance. So if that holds up, Sanders is on for S Carolina.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,911
    Mr. Alex, it's dickish to say that a deal available to Canada, Japan, and Korea is somehow not open for the UK.

    It'll put off a lot of floating voters in the UK. Be interesting to see how pro-EU politicians react.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.
    Agreed, Boris must stick to his guns, if they won't offer us the same terms as Canada, Japan or South Korea, WTO terms it will have to be
    Will be glad to be here to see what happens so it’s all becoming irrelevant
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    There was a slightly amusing point at the end of the Today program today when they had a scientist on explaining how a new UK built aerial was giving the International Space Station the equivalent of wifi. He was asked whether this was all doomed given that we were leaving the ESA as a result of Brexit.

    The reply was that we weren't leaving ESA at all, in fact it was confirmed at a Ministerial meeting very recently that that was the case. Our share of the ESA was increasing as was our contribution and things were going from strength to strength. This was confirmed by the industrial contributor as well.

    Tbh this had passed me by but it is welcome. It is also a very different approach to that indicated by some of these noises out of Brussels in recent days. Much more pragmatic, much more constructive. Hopefully we will see more of this.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    DavidL said:

    Average wages exceed 2008 at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521

    I have been doing a bit of digging into this. The number of people doing gig economy type work has pretty much doubled over the last 3 years alone. Gig workers earn something like £7.50 an hour on average, below the minimum wage. The move to casual labour on such a scale (now nearly 10% of the workforce) has undoubtedly driven down average incomes by a significant amount. It has also, of course, held down unemployment.

    There are a range of issues here, few of them good. Gig workers don't get work place pensions, sick pay, maternity pay, holiday pay etc. The loss of these rights means that they live very much hand to mouth with minimal savings and are much more dependent than average on state benefits.
    Businesses don't, as a whole, invest in training gig workers (Uber is a bit of an exception but that seems connected with their attempt to get their London licence back). It is therefore a downward pressure on productivity as well at a time when that is one of our largest concerns. Training, in so far as it is done at all, is contracted out to the State, colleges etc who pick up the tab.
    Given their income levels (and the lack of recovery in the absence of PAYE) gig workers will pay much less tax than those in FT employment increasing the burden on those who are paying taxes.

    None of this strikes me as a good deal for UK plc. I think we need to take a series of positive steps to put the costs back on those who are benefiting from the casual labour and off the taxpayer. EU Employment law had the concept of the worker who was less than an employee but has certain rights. I think we need to look to extend this so that gig workers engaged over a certain qualifying period qualify for sick pay, holiday pay, etc. We also need to require employers to pay something equivalent to Employers NI so that employees are on a level playing field. I would also increase the tax reliefs for training beyond 100% to incentivise firms to engage in it.

    We want a high wage, high productivity economy. This is a strong trend in the wrong direction.

    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 974
    Were the Iowa polls not universally crap ?

    Why would Nevada be any better ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    edited February 18
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Average wages exceed 2008 at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521

    I have been doing a bit of digging into this. The number of people doing gig economy type work has pretty much doubled over the last 3 years alone. Gig workers earn something like £7.50 an hour on average, below the minimum wage. The move to casual labour on such a scale (now nearly 10% of the workforce) has undoubtedly driven down average incomes by a significant amount. It has also, of course, held down unemployment.

    There are a range of issues here, few of them good. Gig workers don't get work place pensions, sick pay, maternity pay, holiday pay etc. The loss of these rights means that they live very much hand to mouth with minimal savings and are much more dependent than average on state benefits.
    Businesses don't, as a whole, invest in training gig workers (Uber is a bit of an exception but that seems connected with their attempt to get their London licence back). It is therefore a downward pressure on productivity as well at a time when that is one of our largest concerns. Training, in so far as it is done at all, is contracted out to the State, colleges etc who pick up the tab.
    Given their income levels (and the lack of recovery in the absence of PAYE) gig workers will pay much less tax than those in FT employment increasing the burden on those who are paying taxes.

    None of this strikes me as a good deal for UK plc. I think we need to take a series of positive steps to put the costs back on those who are benefiting from the casual labour and off the taxpayer. EU Employment law had the concept of the worker who was less than an employee but has certain rights. I think we need to look to extend this so that gig workers engaged over a certain qualifying period qualify for sick pay, holiday pay, etc. We also need to require employers to pay something equivalent to Employers NI so that employees are on a level playing field. I would also increase the tax reliefs for training beyond 100% to incentivise firms to engage in it.

    We want a high wage, high productivity economy. This is a strong trend in the wrong direction.

    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.
    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    edited February 18
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Average wages exceed 2008 at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521
    ...

    There are a range of issues here, few of them good. Gig workers don't get work place pensions, sick pay, maternity pay, holiday pay etc. The loss of these rights means that they live very much hand to mouth with minimal savings and are much more dependent than average on state benefits.
    Businesses don't, as a whole, invest in training gig workers (Uber is a bit of an exception but that seems connected with their attempt to get their London licence back). It is therefore a downward pressure on productivity as well at a time when that is one of our largest concerns. Training, in so far as it is done at all, is contracted out to the State, colleges etc who pick up the tab.
    Given their income levels (and the lack of recovery in the absence of PAYE) gig workers will pay much less tax than those in FT employment increasing the burden on those who are paying taxes.

    None of this strikes me as a good deal for UK plc. I think we need to take a series of positive steps to put the costs back on those who are benefiting from the casual labour and off the taxpayer. EU Employment law had the concept of the worker who was less than an employee but has certain rights. I think we need to look to extend this so that gig workers engaged over a certain qualifying period qualify for sick pay, holiday pay, etc. We also need to require employers to pay something equivalent to Employers NI so that employees are on a level playing field. I would also increase the tax reliefs for training beyond 100% to incentivise firms to engage in it.

    We want a high wage, high productivity economy. This is a strong trend in the wrong direction.

    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.
    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.

    A high wage, high skilled and high productivity economy needs to restrict unskilled immigration, invest in training and accept high levels of automation replacing retail jobs.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Average wages exceed 2008 at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521
    ...

    There are a range of issues here, few of them good. Gig workers don't get work place pensions, sick pay, maternity pay, holiday pay etc. The loss of these rights means that they live very much hand to mouth with minimal savings and are much more dependent than average on state benefits.
    Businesses don't, as a whole, invest in training gig workers (Uber is a bit of an exception but that seems connected with their attempt to get their London licence back). It is therefore a downward pressure on productivity as well at a time when that is one of our largest concerns. Training, in so far as it is done at all, is contracted out to the State, colleges etc who pick up the tab.
    Given their income levels (and the lack of recovery in the absence of PAYE) gig workers will pay much less tax than those in FT employment increasing the burden on those who are paying taxes.

    None of this strikes me as a good deal for UK plc. I think we need to take a series of positive steps to put the costs back on those who are benefiting from the casual labour and off the taxpayer. EU Employment law had the concept of the worker who was less than an employee but has certain rights. I think we need to look to extend this so that gig workers engaged over a certain qualifying period qualify for sick pay, holiday pay, etc. We also need to require employers to pay something equivalent to Employers NI so that employees are on a level playing field. I would also increase the tax reliefs for training beyond 100% to incentivise firms to engage in it.

    We want a high wage, high productivity economy. This is a strong trend in the wrong direction.

    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.
    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.

    A high wage, high skilled and high productivity economy needs to restrict unskilled immigration, invest in training and accept high levels of automation replacing retail jobs.
    Yep. Can't disagree with that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 52,911
    Anyway, I must be off. Play nicely, everyone.
  • Mike's argument is that Biden is constantly over-rated in the polls vis a vis actual performance. So if that holds up, Sanders is on for S Carolina.

    Except hasn't Sanders been overrated in the polls too?

    Sanders being overrated has been masked by the fact that Biden has collapsed and there was no other close challenger thus Sanders still came first in popular vote.

    But lets not pretend Sanders is doing well and if a clear challenge does emerge then Sanders could be history quite quickly.
  • Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743

    Mike's argument is that Biden is constantly over-rated in the polls vis a vis actual performance. So if that holds up, Sanders is on for S Carolina.

    Except hasn't Sanders been overrated in the polls too?

    Sanders being overrated has been masked by the fact that Biden has collapsed and there was no other close challenger thus Sanders still came first in popular vote.

    But lets not pretend Sanders is doing well and if a clear challenge does emerge then Sanders could be history quite quickly.
    If it were to be done let it be done quickly. Now would be a good time.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Average wages exceed 2008 at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521

    I have been doing a bit of digging into this. The number of people doing gig economy type work has pretty much doubled over the last 3 years alone. Gig workers earn something like £7.50 an hour on average, below the minimum wage. The move to casual labour on such a scale (now nearly 10% of the workforce) has undoubtedly driven down average incomes by a significant amount. It has also, of course, held down unemployment.

    There are a range of issues here, few of them good. Gig workers don't get work place pensions, sick pay, maternity pay, holiday pay etc. The loss of these rights means that they live very much hand to mouth with minimal savings and are much more dependent than average on state benefits.
    Businesses don't, as a whole, invest in training gig workers (Uber is a bit of an exception but that seems connected with their attempt to get their London licence back). It is therefore a downward pressure on productivity as well at a time when that is one of our largest concerns. Training, in so far as it is done at all, is contracted out to the State, colleges etc who pick up the tab.
    Given their income levels (and the lack of recovery in the absence of PAYE) gig workers will pay much less tax than those in FT employment increasing the burden on those who are paying taxes.

    None of this strikes me as a good deal for UK plc. I think we need to take a series of positive steps to put the costs back on those who are benefiting from the casual labour and off the taxpayer. EU Employment law had the concept of the worker who was less than an employee but has certain rights. I think we need to look to extend this so that gig workers engaged over a certain qualifying period qualify for sick pay, holiday pay, etc. We also need to require employers to pay something equivalent to Employers NI so that employees are on a level playing field. I would also increase the tax reliefs for training beyond 100% to incentivise firms to engage in it.

    We want a high wage, high productivity economy. This is a strong trend in the wrong direction.

    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.
    Japanese Productivity is at the same levels as 2004, 16 years of zero progress.
    Must be all those fancy robots.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    Bloomberg is getting out to play at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-51545383

    Will be interesting one way or another.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,468

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 29,743
    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
    The number of deaths and new cases were both down again today. It's possible (but not certain) that we are passed the peak of this already.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 990

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    It believes it will be better off in absolute terms, or in relative terms viz a viz the U.K?

    There are a few countries in the EU which certainly won’t be.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 2,832

    Mike's argument is that Biden is constantly over-rated in the polls vis a vis actual performance. So if that holds up, Sanders is on for S Carolina.

    Except hasn't Sanders been overrated in the polls too?

    Sanders being overrated has been masked by the fact that Biden has collapsed and there was no other close challenger thus Sanders still came first in popular vote.

    But lets not pretend Sanders is doing well and if a clear challenge does emerge then Sanders could be history quite quickly.
    Another complication is Biden has kept slipping after bad performances. Nevada is unclear, but looks better for him. Let's imagine he comes a clear 2nd with Mayor Pete and Klobuchar well back, will Biden pick up some support of theirs going into SC?

    Difficult to say.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 18
    Sandpit said:

    Meanwhile, Betfair still has an open market on the Iowa caucuses from a fortnight ago:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/27538433/market?marketId=1.161392765

    Are we expecting bets on Nevada to also take weeks to pay out, if they don’t end in a void market?

    Yes.

    Due to Nevada using a similarly chaotic system of vote counting.

    California will also take months.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 5,502
    "At the moment Biden, based on the first two states to decide appears in a stronger position than Biden whose performance to date really gives little support to the notion that he’s trying to sell that he’s the best one to take on Trump."

    On the other hand I think Sanders is in a somewhat weaker position than Sanders.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
    The number of deaths and new cases were both down again today. It's possible (but not certain) that we are passed the peak of this already.
    One doctor I heard said it would be over by late March as the weather warms up
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    The U.K. doesn’t want anything particularly different to what the EU has already agreed with Canada and Korea. The EU, on the other hand, are obsessed with punishment and fish.

    The U.K. mitigation will be to announce large free zones around ports and key manufacturing facilities, so as not to hold up parts in transit.

    Nothing’s going to happen with the actual negotiations until the end of June though, the EU still think that the deadline will be extended.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,937
    speedy2 said:



    Japanese Productivity is at the same levels as 2004, 16 years of zero progress.
    Must be all those fancy robots.

    They're probably just holding back in a 40 year practical joke.

    (It's quite hard to fathom the Japanese sense-of-humour, but I think that would amuse them - probably more the idea than actually doing so of course)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,174
    Chris said:

    "At the moment Biden, based on the first two states to decide appears in a stronger position than Biden whose performance to date really gives little support to the notion that he’s trying to sell that he’s the best one to take on Trump."

    On the other hand I think Sanders is in a somewhat weaker position than Sanders.

    The first one should be Buttigieg...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
    The number of deaths and new cases were both down again today. It's possible (but not certain) that we are passed the peak of this already.
    One doctor I heard said it would be over by late March as the weather warms up
    For goodness sake @HYUFD DO NOT read the latest issue of The Economist.

    Line picked at random: "...a united Ireland within a decade or so is a real - and growing - possibility."

    They didn't mention that on your Bushmills tour I bet.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Average wages exceed 2008 at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521
    ...

    There are a range of issues here, few of them good. Gig workers don't get work place pensions, sick pay, maternity pay, holiday pay etc. The loss of these rights means that they live very much hand to mouth with minimal savings and are much more dependent than average on state benefits.
    Businesses don't, as a whole, invest in training gig workers (Uber is a bit of an exception but that seems connected with their attempt to get their London licence back). It is therefore a downward pressure on productivity as well at a time when that is one of our largest concerns. Training, in so far as it is done at all, is contracted out to the State, colleges etc who pick up the tab.
    Given their income levels (and the lack of recovery in the absence of PAYE) gig workers will pay much less tax than those in FT employment increasing the burden on those who are paying taxes.

    None of this strikes me as a good deal for UK plc. I think we need to take a series of positive steps to put the costs back on those who are benefiting from the casual labour and off the taxpayer. EU Employment law had the concept of the worker who was less than an employee but has certain rights. I think we need to look to extend this so that gig workers engaged over a certain qualifying period qualify for sick pay, holiday pay, etc. We also need to require employers to pay something equivalent to Employers NI so that employees are on a level playing field. I would also increase the tax reliefs for training beyond 100% to incentivise firms to engage in it.

    We want a high wage, high productivity economy. This is a strong trend in the wrong direction.

    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.
    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
    The number of deaths and new cases were both down again today. It's possible (but not certain) that we are passed the peak of this already.
    One doctor I heard said it would be over by late March as the weather warms up
    For goodness sake @HYUFD DO NOT read the latest issue of The Economist.

    Line picked at random: "...a united Ireland within a decade or so is a real - and growing - possibility."

    They didn't mention that on your Bushmills tour I bet.
    Except it isnt

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 990
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    The U.K. doesn’t want anything particularly different to what the EU has already agreed with Canada and Korea. The EU, on the other hand, are obsessed with punishment and fish.

    The U.K. mitigation will be to announce large free zones around ports and key manufacturing facilities, so as not to hold up parts in transit.

    Nothing’s going to happen with the actual negotiations until the end of June though, the EU still think that the deadline will be extended.
    I can see the U.K. extending for technical reason (ie. to give a deal time to pass in Wallonia or wherever). Not just because no progress has been made in talks and the EU haven’t tried. What would be the point? As I say, if that’s really what the EU thinks they haven’t understood the new political reality in the U.K.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,419
    "Michel Barnier: UK can't have Canada trade deal with EU"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662
  • Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Average wages exceed 2008 at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521
    ...

    There are a range of issues here, few of them good. Gig workers don't get work place pensions, sick pay, maternity pay, holiday pay etc. The loss of these rights means that they live very much hand to mouth with minimal savings and are much more dependent than average on state benefits.
    Businesses don't, as a whole, invest in training gig workers (Uber is a bit of an exception but that seems connected with their attempt to get their London licence back). It is therefore a downward pressure on productivity as well at a time when that is one of our largest concerns. Training, in so far as it is done at all, is contracted out to the State, colleges etc who pick up the tab.
    Given their income levels (and the lack of recovery in the absence of PAYE) gig workers will pay much less tax than those in FT employment increasing the burden on those who are paying taxes.

    None of this strikes me as a good deal for UK plc. I think we need to take a series of positive steps to put the costs back on those who are benefiting from the casual labour and off the taxpayer. EU Employment law had the concept of the worker who was less than an employee but has certain rights. I think we need to look to extend this so that gig workers engaged over a certain qualifying period qualify for sick pay, holiday pay, etc. We also need to require employers to pay something equivalent to Employers NI so that employees are on a level playing field. I would also increase the tax reliefs for training beyond 100% to incentivise firms to engage in it.

    We want a high wage, high productivity economy. This is a strong trend in the wrong direction.

    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.
    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Up here it’s more big issue sellers than barristers..
  • RobDRobD Posts: 44,318
    Andy_JS said:

    "Michel Barnier: UK can't have Canada trade deal with EU"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    and apparently they want the Elgin Marbles back, too :p
  • eadriceadric Posts: 2,004
    edited February 18
    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
    The number of deaths and new cases were both down again today. It's possible (but not certain) that we are passed the peak of this already.
    I do hope you're right.

    But we have seen this trend before, of an apparent tailing off, only for the disease to pick up speed again



    And then there is Japan:




  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
    The number of deaths and new cases were both down again today. It's possible (but not certain) that we are passed the peak of this already.
    One doctor I heard said it would be over by late March as the weather warms up
    For goodness sake @HYUFD DO NOT read the latest issue of The Economist.

    Line picked at random: "...a united Ireland within a decade or so is a real - and growing - possibility."

    They didn't mention that on your Bushmills tour I bet.
    Except it isnt

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg
    Trying to stay polite here. Let's try an analogy.

    That poll is like one which asks an only child who is a four year old boy if boys should be given preferential treatment in his family when his mother is pregnant with quintuplets who are all female.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    edited February 18

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Average wages exceed 2008 at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521
    ...
    .
    Given their income levels (and the lack of recovery in the absence of PAYE) gig workers will pay much less tax than those in FT employment increasing the burden on those who are paying taxes.

    None of this strikes me as a good deal for UK plc. I think we need to take a series of positive steps to put the costs back on those who are benefiting from the casual labour and off the taxpayer. EU Employment law had the concept of the worker who was less than an employee but has certain rights. I think we need to look to extend this so that gig workers engaged over a certain qualifying period qualify for sick pay, holiday pay, etc. We also need to require employers to pay something equivalent to Employers NI so that employees are on a level playing field. I would also increase the tax reliefs for training beyond 100% to incentivise firms to engage in it.

    We want a high wage, high productivity economy. This is a strong trend in the wrong direction.

    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.
    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Seriously? Do you really think that there’s been more financiers and footballers, or baristas and uber drivers, from the EU to the UK over the past decade? IIRC total immigration has been around 5m in that period, what proportion of those do you think pay the 45% rate of income tax? I’ll go with less than 1%.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.
    Actually, we will get this crap until October when both sides absentmindedly waltz to no deal because they are both very arrogant and think the other side will blink.

    I hope the EU know what risks they’re running. The Euro might not survive another nasty recession.
    This is classic Stephen R Covey stuff.

    Both the UK and the EU are aiming for win-lose deals, for political purposes, rather than win-win. The EU arrangement might work if the UK had co-decision making capability and votes as part of a broader European "common market only" approach (what we voted for originally) but the EU isn't interested in flexibility. The UK is too interested in being seen to defeat the EU in turn.

    So the result is that we'll get lose-lose (ie. no deal).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:


    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.

    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Up here it’s more big issue sellers than barristers..
    Let me help the suddenly-silent @Sandpit and you overcome your ignorance:

    https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba
  • ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.
    Actually, we will get this crap until October when both sides absentmindedly waltz to no deal because they are both very arrogant and think the other side will blink.

    I hope the EU know what risks they’re running. The Euro might not survive another nasty recession.
    This is classic Stephen R Covey stuff.

    Both the UK and the EU are aiming for win-lose deals, for political purposes, rather than win-win. The EU arrangement might work if the UK had co-decision making capability and votes as part of a broader European "common market only" approach (what we voted for originally) but the EU isn't interested in flexibility. The UK is too interested in being seen to defeat the EU in turn.

    So the result is that we'll get lose-lose (ie. no deal).
    How is the UK seeking to get the EU to lose.

    The UK is asking, quite reasonably, to get no more and no less than other countries. To be an independent country setting its laws but with free trade comparable to agreements other independent countries have.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 4,419
    edited February 18
    73.3K cases around the world but still almost no deaths outside China. I'm still puzzled by that unless the virus is exposing a lot of poor health in China that was previously being hidden.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,317
    edited February 18

    The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance

    If not Boris will walk away and with the support of the majority

    I'm afraid If he "walks away" and the consequences are felt, the 50-54 % currently and solidly against Brexit since 2016 will turn to 60% and over. The nationalistic tack of blaming the EU will only work, broadly, among those already convinced Brexiters, as it already forms a part of their worldview.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    edited February 18

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:


    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.

    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Up here it’s more big issue sellers than barristers..
    Let me help the suddenly-silent @Sandpit and you overcome your ignorance:

    https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba
    What do those figures look like if you exclude premier league footballers and the top dozen CEOs and fund managers?

    No mention anywhere in this report of median earnings by EU immigrants, which is surely the most relevant statistic. The word “median” doesn’t appear in the 111-page full report.
  • Andy_JS said:

    73.3K cases around the world but pretty much no deaths outside China. I'm still puzzled by that.

    Genetic predisposition?
  • MangoMango Posts: 518
    HYUFD said:

    Like the latter days of the Western Roman Empire, there seems to be an inexhaustible supply of unsuitable leadership candidates.

    Mr. HYUFD, that's bloody ridiculous of Barnier and the EU.

    It is but there we go, prepare for full, hard Brexit in December
    And then every single thing that is not perfect in my life, and I suspect in the lives of 16.8 million others, will be LEAVERS' FAULT FOR EVER AND EVER.

    Oh, and everything that is wrong in any EU country. And any backward step in confronting the global forces of authoritarianism.
  • The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance

    If not Boris will walk away and with the support of the majority

    I'm afraid If he "walks away" and the consequences are felt, the 50-54 % currently and solidly against Brexit since 2016 will turn to 60% and over. The nationalistic tack of blaming the EU will only work with among, broadly, already convinced Brexiters, as it already forms part of their worldview.
    That is just naive to be honest
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    edited February 18
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
    The number of deaths and new cases were both down again today. It's possible (but not certain) that we are passed the peak of this already.
    One doctor I heard said it would be over by late March as the weather warms up
    For goodness sake @HYUFD DO NOT read the latest issue of The Economist.

    Line picked at random: "...a united Ireland within a decade or so is a real - and growing - possibility."

    They didn't mention that on your Bushmills tour I bet.
    Except it isnt

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg
    Trying to stay polite here. Let's try an analogy.

    That poll is like one which asks an only child who is a four year old boy if boys should be given preferential treatment in his family when his mother is pregnant with quintuplets who are all female.
    Over 70% of non sectarian Alliance leaning voters back the Union as do 99% of DUP and UUP voters



  • Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:


    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.

    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Up here it’s more big issue sellers than barristers..
    Let me help the suddenly-silent @Sandpit and you overcome your ignorance:

    https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba
    You can both be right. There's a difference between median and mean.

    Your figure claims "average" (which will be mean average) while Sandpit was talking about overall numbers (so median).

    If 1 barrister can outweigh in the average a handful of baristas then there can both be more baristas in absolute terms while the average can go up due to the barrister.

    Furthermore if free movement ends we should still get the highly skilled barristers etc even if we get fewer baristas.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 3,937
    Andy_JS said:

    73.3K cases around the world but pretty much no deaths outside China. I'm still puzzled by that.

    A genetic thing maybe, but more likely the Chinese are doing a good job of containment.

  • speedy2 said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Average wages exceed 2008 at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521

    I have been doing a bit of digging into this. The number of people doing gig economy type work has pretty much doubled over the last 3 years alone. Gig workers earn something like £7.50 an hour on average, below the minimum wage. The move to casual labour on such a scale (now nearly 10% of the workforce) has undoubtedly driven down average incomes by a significant amount. It has also, of course, held down unemployment.

    There are a range of issues here, few of them good. Gig workers don't get work place pensions, sick pay, maternity pay, holiday pay etc. The loss of these rights means that they live very much hand to mouth with minimal savings and are much more dependent than average on state benefits.
    Businesses don't, as a whole, invest in training gig workers (Uber is a bit of an exception but that seems connected with their attempt to get their London licence back). It is therefore a downward pressure on productivity as well at a time when that is one of our largest concerns. Training, in so far as it is done at all, is contracted out to the State, colleges etc who pick up the tab.
    Given their income levels (and the lack of recovery in the absence of PAYE) gig workers will pay much less tax than those in FT employment increasing the burden on those who are paying taxes.

    None of this strikes me as a good deal for UK plc. I think we need to take a series of positive steps to put the costs back on those who are benefiting from the casual labour and off the taxpayer. EU Employment law had the concept of the worker who was less than an employee but has certain rights. I think we need to look to extend this so that gig workers engaged over a certain qualifying period qualify for sick pay, holiday pay, etc. We also need to require employers to pay something equivalent to Employers NI so that employees are on a level playing field. I would also increase the tax reliefs for training beyond 100% to incentivise firms to engage in it.

    We want a high wage, high productivity economy. This is a strong trend in the wrong direction.

    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.
    Japanese Productivity is at the same levels as 2004, 16 years of zero progress.
    Must be all those fancy robots.
    "But, sir! Nobody worries about upsetting a droid!"
  • eadriceadric Posts: 2,004
    Andy_JS said:

    73.3K cases around the world but still almost no deaths outside China. I'm still puzzled by that unless the virus is exposing a lot of poor health in China that was previously being hidden.

    Have you done the maths?

    There are about 800 cases outside China, with about 5 deaths (the stats are disputed by some)

    That's a fatality rate of 0.6% or so? Which I believe is actually the same as most of China (outside Wuhan where it is a much nastier 3%)


  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
    The number of deaths and new cases were both down again today. It's possible (but not certain) that we are passed the peak of this already.
    One doctor I heard said it would be over by late March as the weather warms up
    For goodness sake @HYUFD DO NOT read the latest issue of The Economist.

    Line picked at random: "...a united Ireland within a decade or so is a real - and growing - possibility."

    They didn't mention that on your Bushmills tour I bet.
    Except it isnt

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg
    Trying to stay polite here. Let's try an analogy.

    That poll is like one which asks an only child who is a four year old boy if boys should be given preferential treatment in his family when his mother is pregnant with quintuplets who are all female.
    Over 70% of non sectarian Alliance leaning voters back the Union as do 99% of DUP and UUP voters



    Today. Brainbox.

    No one thinks there will be unification tomorrow. But there is a clear path towards it. The demographics, together with several other factors (Brexit, changes in the RoI), all contribute.

    You make yourself look more idiotic than usual if you post a poll taken last week.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,317
    edited February 18

    The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance

    If not Boris will walk away and with the support of the majority

    I'm afraid If he "walks away" and the consequences are felt, the 50-54 % currently and solidly against Brexit since 2016 will turn to 60% and over. The nationalistic tack of blaming the EU will only work with among, broadly, already convinced Brexiters, as it already forms part of their worldview.
    That is just naive to be honest
    No, it's just a statement of the depth of the cultural divide that exists, now. What will appear obvious to someone in the former red walls and tory shires about the failure of talks, if and when that happens, is the defining opposite of what will appear obvious to people in London, Bristol or Central Manchester. To a certain extent Boris won't even need to blame the EU if talks go wrong, as many in the former areas will already be making that attribution themselves.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:


    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.

    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Up here it’s more big issue sellers than barristers..
    Let me help the suddenly-silent @Sandpit and you overcome your ignorance:

    https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba
    What do those figures look like if you exclude premier league footballers and the top dozen CEOs and fund managers?

    No mention anywhere in this report of median earnings by EU immigrants, which is surely the most relevant statistic. The word “median” doesn’t appear in the 111-page full report.

    If median wages of EU immigrants are below those of UK citizens what is the problem?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 13,542

    Mike's argument is that Biden is constantly over-rated in the polls vis a vis actual performance. So if that holds up, Sanders is on for S Carolina.

    Except hasn't Sanders been overrated in the polls too?

    Sanders being overrated has been masked by the fact that Biden has collapsed and there was no other close challenger thus Sanders still came first in popular vote.

    But lets not pretend Sanders is doing well and if a clear challenge does emerge then Sanders could be history quite quickly.
    And that challenger should be Elizabeth Warren (says my book)
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 990

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.
    Actually, we will get this crap until October when both sides absentmindedly waltz to no deal because they are both very arrogant and think the other side will blink.

    I hope the EU know what risks they’re running. The Euro might not survive another nasty recession.
    This is classic Stephen R Covey stuff.

    Both the UK and the EU are aiming for win-lose deals, for political purposes, rather than win-win. The EU arrangement might work if the UK had co-decision making capability and votes as part of a broader European "common market only" approach (what we voted for originally) but the EU isn't interested in flexibility. The UK is too interested in being seen to defeat the EU in turn.

    So the result is that we'll get lose-lose (ie. no deal).
    Not sure that’s true re: win-lose. The problem is what they see as their starting point. Which doesn’t seem to be the same. The U.K. starting point is no deal. The EU appears to be something closer to the existing transition period position.
  • eadriceadric Posts: 2,004
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
    The number of deaths and new cases were both down again today. It's possible (but not certain) that we are passed the peak of this already.
    One doctor I heard said it would be over by late March as the weather warms up
    For goodness sake @HYUFD DO NOT read the latest issue of The Economist.

    Line picked at random: "...a united Ireland within a decade or so is a real - and growing - possibility."

    They didn't mention that on your Bushmills tour I bet.
    Except it isnt

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg
    Trying to stay polite here. Let's try an analogy.

    That poll is like one which asks an only child who is a four year old boy if boys should be given preferential treatment in his family when his mother is pregnant with quintuplets who are all female.
    Over 70% of non sectarian Alliance leaning voters back the Union as do 99% of DUP and UUP voters



    The Irish electing Sinn Fein, followed by one of their new MPs then shouting "Up the Ra!" has probably done more to save the Union than the Tory party in its entire history.

    Neutral voters in NI will abhor this, and will want to preserve the status quo, the GFA, and the Peace. = the Union
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 990
    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    73.3K cases around the world but still almost no deaths outside China. I'm still puzzled by that unless the virus is exposing a lot of poor health in China that was previously being hidden.

    Have you done the maths?

    There are about 800 cases outside China, with about 5 deaths (the stats are disputed by some)

    That's a fatality rate of 0.6% or so? Which I believe is actually the same as most of China (outside Wuhan where it is a much nastier 3%)


    Or they can’t get any food because they’re all trapped in their houses

  • The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance

    If not Boris will walk away and with the support of the majority

    The EU does not need UK support. We’re a third country now.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:


    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.

    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Up here it’s more big issue sellers than barristers..
    Let me help the suddenly-silent @Sandpit and you overcome your ignorance:

    https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba
    What do those figures look like if you exclude premier league footballers and the top dozen CEOs and fund managers?

    No mention anywhere in this report of median earnings by EU immigrants, which is surely the most relevant statistic. The word “median” doesn’t appear in the 111-page full report.

    If median wages of EU immigrants are below those of UK citizens what is the problem?
    The ‘problem’ is that companies would rather employ a trained EU citizen than train up a UK citizen, which costs them more money. Said untrained UK citizens then find themselves part of a large and growing underclass, and vote for Brexit.
  • The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance

    If not Boris will walk away and with the support of the majority

    The EU does not need UK support. We’re a third country now.

    Really.

    The EU do need to keep opinion on their side or see the EU enter into chaos as each country fights against tariffs re their products coming to the UK
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Average wages exceed 2008 at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521
    ...
    .
    Given their income levels (and the lack of recovery in the absence of PAYE) gig workers will pay much less tax than those in FT employment increasing the burden on those who are paying taxes.

    None of this strikes me as a good deal for UK plc. I think we need to take a series of positive steps to put the costs back on those who are benefiting from the casual labour and off the taxpayer. EU Employment law had the concept of the worker who was less than an employee but has certain rights. I think we need to look to extend this so that gig workers engaged over a certain qualifying period qualify for sick pay, holiday pay, etc. We also need to require employers to pay something equivalent to Employers NI so that employees are on a level playing field. I would also increase the tax reliefs for training beyond 100% to incentivise firms to engage in it.

    We want a high wage, high productivity economy. This is a strong trend in the wrong direction.

    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.
    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Seriously? Do you really think that there’s been more financiers and footballers, or baristas and uber drivers, from the EU to the UK over the past decade? IIRC total immigration has been around 5m in that period, what proportion of those do you think pay the 45% rate of income tax? I’ll go with less than 1%.
    Just 1.4% of income taxpayers as a whole pay the 45% rate of tax. Anyone with two brain cells to rub together would look at an aggregate average, where EU immigrants perform well relative to UK citizens (as you would expect given that they are better educated).

    It’s quite something to be an immigrant yourself to another country and display a baseless rabid hostility to immigration.
  • eadriceadric Posts: 2,004
    alex_ said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    73.3K cases around the world but still almost no deaths outside China. I'm still puzzled by that unless the virus is exposing a lot of poor health in China that was previously being hidden.

    Have you done the maths?

    There are about 800 cases outside China, with about 5 deaths (the stats are disputed by some)

    That's a fatality rate of 0.6% or so? Which I believe is actually the same as most of China (outside Wuhan where it is a much nastier 3%)


    Or they can’t get any food because they’re all trapped in their houses

    Incedible stat I read today:

    150 million Chinese are in total lockdown - i.e. stuck in their own homes (sometimes welded inside)

    150 million! In that light it is not surprising the infections are levelling off.

    How long can that be maintained? Not for ever. What happens to the virus then?

    And what if the virus DOES take a real grip in a non-Chinese country? Few nations have the will, the power or the ability to do a Chinese style mass national quarantine.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:


    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.

    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Up here it’s more big issue sellers than barristers..
    Let me help the suddenly-silent @Sandpit and you overcome your ignorance:

    https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba
    What do those figures look like if you exclude premier league footballers and the top dozen CEOs and fund managers?

    No mention anywhere in this report of median earnings by EU immigrants, which is surely the most relevant statistic. The word “median” doesn’t appear in the 111-page full report.

    If median wages of EU immigrants are below those of UK citizens what is the problem?

    Is median the right metric to use?

    Premier League footballers will continue to come here even if we have fewer unskilled migrants. Its not like if we drop a few unskilled migrants then Virgil Van Dijk (on £180k per week so £9.36m per annum) is going to suddenly leave the country is it?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,495

    The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance

    If not Boris will walk away and with the support of the majority

    Newspaper headline stuff.... "Die hard Tory supports Party policy!"

    :D:D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
    The number of deaths and new cases were both down again today. It's possible (but not certain) that we are passed the peak of this already.
    One doctor I heard said it would be over by late March as the weather warms up
    For goodness sake @HYUFD DO NOT read the latest issue of The Economist.

    Line picked at random: "...a united Ireland within a decade or so is a real - and growing - possibility."

    They didn't mention that on your Bushmills tour I bet.
    Except it isnt

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg
    Trying to stay polite here. Let's try an analogy.

    That poll is like one which asks an only child who is a four year old boy if boys should be given preferential treatment in his family when his mother is pregnant with quintuplets who are all female.
    Over 70% of non sectarian Alliance leaning voters back the Union as do 99% of DUP and UUP voters



    The Irish electing Sinn Fein, followed by one of their new MPs then shouting "Up the Ra!" has probably done more to save the Union than the Tory party in its entire history.

    Neutral voters in NI will abhor this, and will want to preserve the status quo, the GFA, and the Peace. = the Union
    Are you suggesting voices for unification are getting Feinter?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    eadric said:

    alex_ said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    73.3K cases around the world but still almost no deaths outside China. I'm still puzzled by that unless the virus is exposing a lot of poor health in China that was previously being hidden.

    Have you done the maths?

    There are about 800 cases outside China, with about 5 deaths (the stats are disputed by some)

    That's a fatality rate of 0.6% or so? Which I believe is actually the same as most of China (outside Wuhan where it is a much nastier 3%)


    Or they can’t get any food because they’re all trapped in their houses

    Incedible stat I read today:

    150 million Chinese are in total lockdown - i.e. stuck in their own homes (sometimes welded inside)

    150 million! In that light it is not surprising the infections are levelling off.

    How long can that be maintained? Not for ever. What happens to the virus then?

    And what if the virus DOES take a real grip in a non-Chinese country? Few nations have the will, the power or the ability to do a Chinese style mass national quarantine.
    They do if they have to as a matter of national security
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:


    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.

    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Up here it’s more big issue sellers than barristers..
    Let me help the suddenly-silent @Sandpit and you overcome your ignorance:

    https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba
    What do those figures look like if you exclude premier league footballers and the top dozen CEOs and fund managers?

    No mention anywhere in this report of median earnings by EU immigrants, which is surely the most relevant statistic. The word “median” doesn’t appear in the 111-page full report.

    If median wages of EU immigrants are below those of UK citizens what is the problem?
    The ‘problem’ is that companies would rather employ a trained EU citizen than train up a UK citizen, which costs them more money. Said untrained UK citizens then find themselves part of a large and growing underclass, and vote for Brexit.

    But if we have full employment and the median EU migrants salary is lower than the median Brits’ salary that means Brits are earning more than EU migrants. Which strongly implies the migrants are doing lower paid jobs than Brits.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563
    alex_ said:

    To be honest I don’t really understand some of the more hardline comments coming out of the EU at the moment. The one the other day about both sides tearing each other to bits a particularly strange example. Trade negotiations happen because both sides see them as mutually beneficial. If you enter into them expecting them to be mutually destructive what’s the point? The British may have started this, but they are the ones sounding reasonable at the moment. Even if deluded.

    You get the impression that some in the EU haven’t come to terms with the new legal status quo. There is no “the best deal we have is the current one” option any more. And the Conservative majority means that no deal will almost certainly happen if the Government decides so. On a slightly better prepared basis than it might have previously.

    Maybe some in the EU have decided that a trade deal won’t happen and are giving early warning to member states to come to their own accommodations with the U.K.

    The EU is angry we actually went through with it.

    That is yet to work through the system so we get to rationality.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    TGOHF666 said:

    Were the Iowa polls not universally crap ?

    Why would Nevada be any better ?

    The Iowa polls:

    - overstated Sanders by 2-3 points
    - understated Buttigieg by about 4 points
    - overstated Biden by about 3 points
    - got Warren, Klobuchar about right

    The New Hampshire polls:

    - overstated Sanders by 2-3 points
    - understated Klobuchar by about 7 points
    - understated Buttigieg by about 3 points
    - overstated Warren by 2-3 points
    - overstated Biden by 3-4 points

    In the case of NH, I think the big issue was a late Klobuchar surge that pulled votes from Buttigieg and Warren. (The latter I think is understated but important: Klobuchar is increasingly seen as the most electable female candidate.)

    Caucuses are fundamentally hard to poll, because there is realignment went people have turned up to vote. If two moderates turn up, with one on 13% and the other on 17%, it's entirely possible for the first to end up with nothing, and the latter to end up with 30%.

    That being said, things are different in each precinct. So it's entirely possible that these moves cancel each other out across the State or Congressional District.

    Caucuses rely on organisation. Do you have your volunteers in the precinct pulling undecided voters into your group? Sanders definitely has that. Buttigieg has that, albeit to a slightly lesser degree. Warren might have that. Steyer certainly doesn't have that. And I'm not convinced either Biden or Klobuchar have that.

    For that reason, I think that the most likely result is a clear Sanders win, with Buttigieg picking up a decent second (but still probably 7 to 10 points behind). Warren and Klobuchar will pick up delegates, albeit not in every CD. Biden and Steyer will end up delegate-less.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
    The number of deaths and new cases were both down again today. It's possible (but not certain) that we are passed the peak of this already.
    One doctor I heard said it would be over by late March as the weather warms up
    For goa decade or so is a real - and growing - possibility."

    They didn't mention that on your Bushmills tour I bet.
    Except it isnt

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg
    Trying to stay polite here. Let's try an analogy.

    That poll is like one which asks an only child who is a four year old boy if boys should be given preferential treatment in his family when his mother is pregnant with quintuplets who are all female.
    Over 70% of non sectarian Alliance leaning voters back the Union as do 99% of DUP and UUP voters



    Today. Brainbox.

    No one thinks there will be unification tomorrow. But there is a clear path towards it. The demographics, together with several other factors (Brexit, changes in the RoI), all contribute.

    You make yourself look more idiotic than usual if you post a poll taken last week.
    There isn't, on this poll support for staying in the UK is stronger than ever and above all supported by 70% of non Nationalist, non Unionist non sectarian voters
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 26,335

    The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance

    If not Boris will walk away and with the support of the majority

    The EU does not need UK support. We’re a third country now.

    If they ever want us to rejoin they do.
  • The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance

    If not Boris will walk away and with the support of the majority

    The EU does not need UK support. We’re a third country now.

    Really.

    The EU do need to keep opinion on their side or see the EU enter into chaos as each country fights against tariffs re their products coming to the UK

    They will do what they believe is best for them. They clearly believe No Deal is more in their interests than the Deal the UK is after. While we, of course, believe the opposite. It looks like a rock solid political wall to me that will only be climbed after the alternative is experienced.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 69,562
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Barnier now saying we can't have a Canada style FTA because of our 'proximity' to the EU, so essentially we have to stay in the single market and a customs union in all but name for a trade deal.

    In which case WTO+ terms looks inevitable

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51549662

    We are going to get this crap every week until the end of June, when the EU side realise that the deadline isn’t going to be extended and the UK is prepared to walk away if the EU continue to see the UK as supplicants.

    The EU believes it is better off with no deal than the one the UK wants. And the UK believes the reverse. So no deal it will be. The government needs a strategy now to cope with that and deliver on the promises it has made.

    Presumably it's possible that the whole Brexit thing will become swallowed up in a global near-disaster of disease.
    The number of deaths and new cases were both down again today. It's possible (but not certain) that we are passed the peak of this already.
    One doctor I heard said it would be over by late March as the weather warms up
    For goodness sake @HYUFD DO NOT read the latest issue of The Economist.

    Line picked at random: "...a united Ireland within a decade or so is a real - and growing - possibility."

    They didn't mention that on your Bushmills tour I bet.
    Except it isnt

    https://m.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/less-than-third-want-a-united-ireland-reveals-study-of-voters-38966196.html?fbclid=IwAR0eysvXRgsA9NJvAIN-AGC1B5ceRk95kbwg_TVQ26QPlwobSGwvHKUcTIg
    Trying to stay politepregnant with quintuplets who are all female.
    Over 70% of non sectarian Alliance leaning voters back the Union as do 99% of DUP and UUP voters



    The Irish electing Sinn Fein, followed by one of their new MPs then shouting "Up the Ra!" has probably done more to save the Union than the Tory party in its entire history.

    Neutral voters in NI will abhor this, and will want to preserve the status quo, the GFA, and the Peace. = the Union
    Indeed, clearly the Sinn Fein surge in the Republic has appalled neutral Alliance voters in NI in areas like Down
  • ydoethur said:

    The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance

    If not Boris will walk away and with the support of the majority

    The EU does not need UK support. We’re a third country now.

    If they ever want us to rejoin they do.

    I doubt it’s a priority!

  • eadriceadric Posts: 2,004
    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    alex_ said:

    eadric said:

    Andy_JS said:

    73.3K cases around the world but still almost no deaths outside China. I'm still puzzled by that unless the virus is exposing a lot of poor health in China that was previously being hidden.

    Have you done the maths?

    There are about 800 cases outside China, with about 5 deaths (the stats are disputed by some)

    That's a fatality rate of 0.6% or so? Which I believe is actually the same as most of China (outside Wuhan where it is a much nastier 3%)


    Or they can’t get any food because they’re all trapped in their houses

    Incedible stat I read today:

    150 million Chinese are in total lockdown - i.e. stuck in their own homes (sometimes welded inside)

    150 million! In that light it is not surprising the infections are levelling off.

    How long can that be maintained? Not for ever. What happens to the virus then?

    And what if the virus DOES take a real grip in a non-Chinese country? Few nations have the will, the power or the ability to do a Chinese style mass national quarantine.
    They do if they have to as a matter of national security
    I can see a Singapore or Japan doing a Chinese style lockdown (though it would be harder, because of the density of population)


    I cannot envisage a western country doing it, as we are too "fussy" about human rights. But maybe you are right, and in extremis we would.

    However, a country like India or Brazil or Nigeria simply wouldn't have the money or the organisational capability
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Average wages exceed 2008 at last: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51543521
    ...

    We want a high wage, high productivity economy. This is a strong trend in the wrong direction.

    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.
    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Seriously? Do you really think that there’s been more financiers and footballers, or baristas and uber drivers, from the EU to the UK over the past decade? IIRC total immigration has been around 5m in that period, what proportion of those do you think pay the 45% rate of income tax? I’ll go with less than 1%.
    Just 1.4% of income taxpayers as a whole pay the 45% rate of tax. Anyone with two brain cells to rub together would look at an aggregate average, where EU immigrants perform well relative to UK citizens (as you would expect given that they are better educated).

    It’s quite something to be an immigrant yourself to another country and display a baseless rabid hostility to immigration.
    As an immigrant to another country I can see this from both sides.

    If we allowed only the higher-rate taxpayers to move to the U.K., but not the minimum wage workers, big issue sellers and benefits claimants, instead training UK citizens to upskill, would the U.K. GDP per capita be higher or lower than it is now?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:


    It would be good to see a breakdown of workers in the ‘gig’ economy by nationality. I’d guess that a large proportion are EU migrants. Numbers of British citizens would be very useful.

    The U.K. productivity stats have been killed by large-scale unskilled and semi-skilled immigration over the past decade.

    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.
    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Up here it’s more big issue sellers than barristers..
    Let me help the suddenly-silent @Sandpit and you overcome your ignorance:

    https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/recent-releases/8747673d-3b26-439b-9693-0e250df6dbba
    What do those figures look like if you exclude premier league footballers and the top dozen CEOs and fund managers?

    No mention anywhere in this report of median earnings by EU immigrants, which is surely the most relevant statistic. The word “median” doesn’t appear in the 111-page full report.

    If median wages of EU immigrants are below those of UK citizens what is the problem?
    The ‘problem’ is that companies would rather employ a trained EU citizen than train up a UK citizen, which costs them more money. Said untrained UK citizens then find themselves part of a large and growing underclass, and vote for Brexit.

    But if we have full employment and the median EU migrants salary is lower than the median Brits’ salary that means Brits are earning more than EU migrants. Which strongly implies the migrants are doing lower paid jobs than Brits.

    I’m quite impressed that @sandpit is simultaneously arguing that all the EU migrants bar a handful are low paid and that fewer than 1% of them are 45% rate taxpayers, skewing the average so that they are on average earning more than British citizens. He might want to decide which of those two arguments he wants to continue to run because making them both work needs some very specific data that he transparently does not have.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    edited February 18
    Sandpit said:

    The ‘problem’ is that companies would rather employ a trained EU citizen than train up a UK citizen, which costs them more money. Said untrained UK citizens then find themselves part of a large and growing underclass, and vote for Brexit.

    Ummm...

    This is where I get confused. We don't want skilled migrants, because we want British companies to train people up.

    But then we definitely don't want unskilled migrants. Yet, if we've trained all the Brits up, then they're probably not going to want to work as baristas or house cleaners or nannies or care workers.

    You see, this is why I like "the market". Rather than the government saying "we want x thousand people with these skills, and y thousand with those", we simply say "migrants to the UK pay £x,000/year for compulsory health insurance".

    This means that a skilled EU worker will need to be sufficiently skilled to effectively overcome the additional tax. And the unskilled will be discouraged, but not banned. Effectively, Brits are automatically £x,000 cheaper to employ. You'll choose them in preference. But if the Labour market is really tight, then at those times you can import people - which is preferable to moving production off-shore. It's naturally self balancing.

    And the value of "x" can be changed. If we find we're struggling to attract people, it can be moved down. And if we find that there is pressure on services, it can be moved up.
  • Just 1.4% of income taxpayers as a whole pay the 45% rate of tax. Anyone with two brain cells to rub together would look at an aggregate average, where EU immigrants perform well relative to UK citizens (as you would expect given that they are better educated).

    It’s quite something to be an immigrant yourself to another country and display a baseless rabid hostility to immigration.

    You've just proved why you're wrong.

    IF just 1.4% of income taxpayers as a whole pay the 45% rate of tax and IF you wish to maximise income tax then aggregate is the worst possible metric to use. Instead a system to maximise the proportion of high tax payers would be the right motive. 98.6% of potential migrants are not contributing via that, if that is your incentive.

    How many Premier League footballers are European? How many European top flight footballers are English? Via football alone we import high class high skilled highly renumerated people that should collectively be paying billions of pounds of taxes alone. The number of low skilled migrants that arrive to pad out the numbers won't be bringing in the taxes just because they come from the same nations as those who are paying fortunes in tax.
  • eadriceadric Posts: 2,004
    edited February 18
This discussion has been closed.