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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    rcs1000 said:

    If it was up to me I'd go with a hybrid migration service that is an adjusted version of free movement.

    Key points
    1: Do not discriminate.
    2: Migrants pay a fixed annual fee eg £5,000 per annum to contribute to society, the NHS etc
    3: Migrants are ineligble to any form of welfare for 4 years. If they wish to pay for some form of insurance then up to them but that should be private not state provided.
    4: Migrants must not commit criminal offences. Any criminal offence (not speeding etc) leads to deportation.
    5: Must not be criminals in their home nation before migrating here and must have a clean bill of health.
    6: After 4 years migrants can apply for permanent residence so long as they've maintained their payments, steady employment and can speak English fluently (not a requirement I'd make for temporary migration).

    As a business exec, I would also make temporary (secondment) work visas easy. If I want Blake from our Los Angeles Data Science team to spend six months with Engineering in London, that should be pretty easy. (This was a big issue at my former company too.)

    Making these temporary visits, which are too long to call a business trip, but definitely aren't permanent migration, easy should be a key priority.
    Yes, that’s a good call. Especially the “well, we thought he’d be here for a couple of months on a visit visa, but now it’s looking like six months so we should really let him rent an apartment and get a bank account” scenario. If he’s a 40% taxpayer (which he will be), that should be pretty much automatic (subject to health insurance).
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 747
    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:

    The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance


    The EU does not need UK support. We’re a third country now.

    It is much more like 65% to 35%.

    I

    r last sentence is correct. If it fails this year, I suspect we will have a deal by 2024 (i.e. before the next GE) because it will be too stupid not to do one with both sides having gone through and adjusted to a No Deal situation for 12-18 months.

    By that time, of course, No Deal will have lost its scariness and leverage as we'll be in a new status quo, the EU anger may have abated and they'll be able to argue a point has been made, so a Deal will be about growth but Spain and Greece will still probably try to put silly stuff in about Gibraltar and the Elgin Marbles.

    The issue may be more the UK who could be a bit "talk to the hand" by then.

    Of course - if No Deal turns out to be no problem it will become the status quo. I really don't think anyone is that angry. I just think that politically a deal at this time will be impossible to do. No-one is willing to compromise enough to get anything beyond some kind of skeleton arrangement over the line.

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    Gabs3 said:

    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option.

    This would be the large amount of Pro-European people that Boris has appointed to the negotiating team, yes? Because otherwise they'll have to employ pesky mind-control abilities to achieve the outcome you predict.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061
    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:

    The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance


    The EU does not need UK support. We’re a third country now.

    It is much more like 65% to 35%.

    I

    r last sentence is correct. If it fails this year, I suspect we will have a deal by 2024 (i.e. before the next GE) because it will be too stupid not to do one with both sides having gone through and adjusted to a No Deal situation for 12-18 months.

    By that time, of course, No Deal will have lost its scariness and leverage as we'll be in a new status quo, the EU anger may have abated and they'll be able to argue a point has been made, so a Deal will be about growth but Spain and Greece will still probably try to put silly stuff in about Gibraltar and the Elgin Marbles.

    The issue may be more the UK who could be a bit "talk to the hand" by then.

    Of course - if No Deal turns out to be no problem it will become the status quo. I really don't think anyone is that angry. I just think that politically a deal at this time will be impossible to do. No-one is willing to compromise enough to get anything beyond some kind of skeleton arrangement over the line.

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    ..
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 747
    viewcode said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option.

    This would be the large amount of Pro-European people that Boris has appointed to the negotiating team, yes? Because otherwise they'll have to employ pesky mind-control abilities to achieve the outcome you predict.
    See my response to Nichomar.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368

    Gabs3 said:

    The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance

    If not Boris will walk away and with the support of the majority

    The EU does not need UK support. We’re a third country now.

    This is nonsense. The EU does need
    I

    r last sentence is correct. If it fails this year, I suspect we will have a deal by 2024 (i.e. before the next GE) because it will be too stupid not to do one with both sides having gone through and adjusted to a No Deal situation for 12-18 months.

    By that time, of course, No Deal will have lost its scariness and leverage as we'll be in a new status quo, the EU anger may have abated and they'll be able to argue a point has been made, so a Deal will be about growth but Spain and Greece will still probably try to put silly stuff in about Gibraltar and the Elgin Marbles.

    The issue may be more the UK who could be a bit "talk to the hand" by then.

    Of course - if No Deal turns out to be no problem it will become the status quo. I really don't think anyone is that angry. I just think that politically a deal at this time will be impossible to do.

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    One day we will get to a "Pro-European" deal from outside the EU.

    We are a long way off that point yet.
    I think that we can only rebuild a sensible relationship with the EU after having tested the cold winds outside, otherwise the Brexiteers will always cry betrayal. It is why I am sanguine about No Deal, helped by having the safest of safe jobs.

    A lot of unnecessary economic damage for sure, much of it permanent, but so shall it be.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:

    r last sentence is correct. If it fails this year, I suspect we will have a deal by 2024 (i.e. before the next GE) because it will be too stupid not to do one with both sides having gone through and adjusted to a No Deal situation for 12-18 months.

    By that time, of course, No Deal will have lost its scariness and leverage as we'll be in a new status quo, the EU anger may have abated and they'll be able to argue a point has been made, so a Deal will be about growth but Spain and Greece will still probably try to put silly stuff in about Gibraltar and the Elgin Marbles.

    The issue may be more the UK who could be a bit "talk to the hand" by then.

    Of course - if No Deal turns out to be no problem it will become the status quo. I really don't think anyone is that angry. I just think that politically a deal at this time will be impossible to do. No-one is willing to compromise enough to get anything beyond some kind of skeleton arrangement over the line.

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:

    The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance


    The EU does not need UK support. We’re a third country now.

    It is much more like 65% to 35%.

    I

    r last sentence is correct. If it fails this year, I suspect we will have a deal by 2024 (i.e. before the next GE) because it will be too stupid not to do one with both sides having gone through and adjusted to a No Deal situation for 12-18 months.

    By that time, of course, No Deal will have lost its scariness and leverage as we'll be in a new status quo, the EU anger may have abated and they'll be able to argue a point has been made, so a Deal will be about growth but Spain and Greece will still probably try to put silly stuff in about Gibraltar and the Elgin Marbles.

    The issue may be more the UK who could be a bit "talk to the hand" by then.

    Of course - if No Deal turns out to be no problem it will become the status quo. I really don't think anyone is that angry. I just think that politically a deal at this time will be impossible to do. No-one is willing to compromise enough to get anything beyond some kind of skeleton arrangement over the line.

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.


    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    ..
    Canada won't give us the same deal either as I recall.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,061
    Sandpit said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:

    r last sentence is correct. If it fails this year, I suspect we will have a deal by 2024 (i.e. before the next GE) because it will be too stupid not to do one with both sides having gone through and adjusted to a No Deal situation for 12-18 months.

    By that time, of course, No Deal will have lost its scariness and leverage as we'll be in a new status quo, the EU anger may have abated and they'll be able to argue a point has been made, so a Deal will be about growth but Spain and Greece will still probably try to put silly stuff in about Gibraltar and the Elgin Marbles.

    The issue may be more the UK who could be a bit "talk to the hand" by then.

    Of course - if No Deal turns out to be no problem it will become the

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.
    Remainers views are irrelevant, what is in the guardian is irrelevant the government can do what it wants and the 45% that possibly support them. Everybody else is irrelevant
  • TimTTimT Posts: 351



    The first two sentences applies to any act of international diplomacy or negotiation. It remains to be see how much room for movement there is on the third (I suspect a bit - Johnson's Government is becoming increasingly ideological looking, but this may be partly for show).

    It's possible your last sentence is correct. If it fails this year, I suspect we will have a deal by 2024 (i.e. before the next GE) because it will be too stupid not to do one with both sides having gone through and adjusted to a No Deal situation for 12-18 months.

    By that time, of course, No Deal will have lost its scariness and leverage as we'll be in a new status quo, the EU anger may have abated and they'll be able to argue a point has been made, so a Deal will be about growth but Spain and Greece will still probably try to put silly stuff in about Gibraltar and the Elgin Marbles.

    The issue may be more the UK who could be a bit "talk to the hand" by then.

    Of course - if No Deal turns out to be no problem it will become the status quo. I really don't think anyone is that angry. I just think that politically a deal at this time will be impossible to do. No-one is willing to compromise enough to get anything beyond some kind of skeleton arrangement over the line.

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    This has pretty much been my analysis since the vote was taken and the initial negotiating lines were handed to Bernier.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    Gabs3 said:

    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.

    I must have missed the bits in the past where the EU changed their behavior after taking the British media into account
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211
    edited February 18

    Sandpit said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:


    Of course - if No Deal turns out to be no problem it will become the status quo. I really don't think anyone is that angry. I just think that politically a deal at this time will be impossible to do. No-one is willing to compromise enough to get anything beyond some kind of skeleton arrangement over the line.

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.
    Good grief. Even when the death cult Leavers are in complete control, still they seek to blame Remainers for their own ineptitude. Vote Leave, Avoid Responsibility.
    LOL. No, the point is that the EU side are watching the UK press, and are interested in the opinions of those people they already know. For example Sadiq Khan in the papers today.

    The previous round of negotiations were to a large extent steered by pro-EU voices from the UK encouraging the EU to be as hard as possible, in the hope of forcing a second referendum.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    TimT said:

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.

    This has pretty much been my analysis since the vote was taken and the initial negotiating lines were handed to Bernier.
    And you and @Casino_Royale are completely correct.

    A sensible, long-term UK-EU agreement is possible, probably, only after Brexit is well in the rear view mirror.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.

    This has pretty much been my analysis since the vote was taken and the initial negotiating lines were handed to Bernier.
    And you and @Casino_Royale are completely correct.

    A sensible, long-term UK-EU agreement is possible, probably, only after Brexit is well in the rear view mirror.
    Hmm. I remember pointing out how intractable negotiations would be well before the referendum. For my pains I got abused by the diehard Leavers, who have now moved seamlessly from saying how effortless striking a deal would be to saying how impossible striking a deal is now. Some humility, contrition and a few apologies on their parts would be in order.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:


    Of course - if No Deal turns out to be no problem it will become the status quo. I really don't think anyone is that angry. I just think that politically a deal at this time will be impossible to do. No-one is willing to compromise enough to get anything beyond some kind of skeleton arrangement over the line.

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.
    Good grief. Even when the death cult Leavers are in complete control, still they seek to blame Remainers for their own ineptitude. Vote Leave, Avoid Responsibility.
    LOL. No, the point is that the EU side are watching the UK press, and are interested in the opinions of those people they already know. For example Sadiq Khan in the papers today.

    The previous round of negotiations were to a large extent steered by pro-EU voices from the UK encouraging the EU to be as hard as possible, in the hope of forcing a second referendum.
    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563

    a

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If they ever want us to rejoin they do.

    I doubt it’s a priority!

    Really?

    Without

    There

    I do not think they will want the UK back until a significant proportion of the Boomers have popped their clogs. Why buy trouble?
    They won't want the UK back until there's a decent national consensus not subject to the electoral cycle.

    That means convincing people like me, not Boomers.

    Good luck.
    They don’t need to win over the bay-at-the-moon Leaver contingent. So your views can be heavily discounted.
    I'm going to ignore the insult. But I could argue plenty of your own views are "batty" if I were as rude as you are on Brexit.

    They need to win over a substantial contingent of Leavers and establish a political consensus within the UK, which means the Conservative Party too.

    How do you expect that to be achieved given 80%+ are currently now Leavers?
    Where do you get this 80%+ figure from?
    Ok, perhaps 70-75% for voters. Probably 80%+ for Conservative Party members. 90%+ of Conservative voters in terms of honouring the vote.

    "Nearly three quarters (73%) of Conservative voters said they voted Leave and wanted Brexit to happen as soon as possible; a further 18% said they voted Remain but wanted the referendum result to be honoured."

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/12/how-britain-voted-and-why-my-2019-general-election-post-vote-poll/
    Oh, Conservatives. There will come a point where as much attention need be paid to Conservatives as has been paid to Labour supporters recently. And given how determined Leavers have been to rule by majority rather than create a consensus, they will deserve everything they get.
    Yup, didn't think you had an answer to that.
    It is an answer. It’s one that should terrify you on several levels.
    You're saying there'll be a reckoning, and you seem to think out of that there will (eventually) emerge a political consensus for rejoining that unites the mainstream in Britain.

    It's a possibility (who knows what the future holds) but not the certainty you think it is.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102

    a

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If they ever want us to rejoin they do.

    I doubt it’s a priority!

    Really?

    Without

    There

    I do not think they will want the UK back until a significant proportion of the Boomers have popped their clogs. Why buy trouble?
    They won't want the UK back until there's a decent national consensus not subject to the electoral cycle.

    That means convincing people like me, not Boomers.

    Good luck.
    They don’t need to win over the bay-at-the-moon Leaver contingent. So your views can be heavily discounted.
    I'm going to ignore the insult. But I could argue plenty of your own views are "batty" if I were as rude as you are on Brexit.

    They need to win over a substantial contingent of Leavers and establish a political consensus within the UK, which means the Conservative Party too.

    How do you expect that to be achieved given 80%+ are currently now Leavers?
    Where do you get this 80%+ figure from?
    Ok, perhaps 70-75% for voters. Probably 80%+ for Conservative Party members. 90%+ of Conservative voters in terms of honouring the vote.

    "Nearly three quarters (73%) of Conservative voters said they voted Leave and wanted Brexit to happen as soon as possible; a further 18% said they voted Remain but wanted the referendum result to be honoured."

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/12/how-britain-voted-and-why-my-2019-general-election-post-vote-poll/
    Oh, Conservatives. There will come a point where as much attention need be paid to Conservatives as has been paid to Labour supporters recently. And given how determined Leavers have been to rule by majority rather than create a consensus, they will deserve everything they get.
    Yup, didn't think you had an answer to that.
    It is an answer. It’s one that should terrify you on several levels.
    You're saying there'll be a reckoning, and you seem to think out of that there will (eventually) emerge a political consensus for rejoining that unites the mainstream in Britain.

    It's a possibility (who knows what the future holds) but not the certainty you think it is.
    There will be a point when the Conservatives are out of power. Brace yourself.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910
    edited February 18
    Sandpit said:

    The previous round of negotiations were to a large extent steered by pro-EU voices from the UK...

    I'm not sure that's actually true. There were noises off by Verhofstadt and others at the European Parliament or Tusk level, but the EU people actually doing the negotiating didn't (seem?) to be so motivated: IIRC they set out what they wanted from the beginning and stuck to that.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:


    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.
    Good grief. Even when the death cult Leavers are in complete control, still they seek to blame Remainers for their own ineptitude. Vote Leave, Avoid Responsibility.
    LOL. No, the point is that the EU side are watching the UK press, and are interested in the opinions of those people they already know. For example Sadiq Khan in the papers today.

    The previous round of negotiations were to a large extent steered by pro-EU voices from the UK encouraging the EU to be as hard as possible, in the hope of forcing a second referendum.
    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.
    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563

    a

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If they ever want us to rejoin they do.

    I doubt it’s a priority!

    Really?

    Without

    There

    I do not think they will want the UK back until a significant proportion of the Boomers have popped their clogs. Why buy trouble?
    They won't want the UK back until there's a decent national consensus not subject to the electoral cycle.

    That means convincing people like me, not Boomers.

    Good luck.
    They don’t need to win over the bay-at-the-moon Leaver contingent. So your views can be heavily discounted.
    I'm going to ignore the insult. But I could argue plenty of your own views are "batty" if I were as rude as you are on Brexit.

    They need to win over a substantial contingent of Leavers and establish a political consensus within the UK, which means the Conservative Party too.

    How do you expect that to be achieved given 80%+ are currently now Leavers?
    Where do you get this 80%+ figure from?
    Ok, perhaps 70-75% for voters. Probably 80%+ for Conservative Party members. 90%+ of create a consensus, they will deserve everything they get.
    Yup, didn't think you had an answer to that.
    It is an answer. It’s one that should terrify you on several levels.
    You're saying there'll be a reckoning, and you seem to think out of that there will (eventually) emerge a political consensus for rejoining that unites the mainstream in Britain.

    It's a possibility (who knows what the future holds) but not the certainty you think it is.
    There will be a point when the Conservatives are out of power. Brace yourself.
    I'm not disputing that!

    You know well enough (you're an intelligent guy) that my point was that the EU won't reconsider British admission until both mainstream political parties are in favour of joining, so we don't yo-yo in and out subject to the whims of the British electoral cycle.

    That means a consistent 60-65% in favour over a number of years and probably for the full fat version.

    Again, not impossible - but unlikely.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,505
    Wow. The Leavers are already turning on Boris - he's a weak, malleable and inept PM who's in thrall to The Independent. Talk about short honeymoon.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 34,563

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.

    This has pretty much been my analysis since the vote was taken and the initial negotiating lines were handed to Bernier.
    And you and @Casino_Royale are completely correct.

    A sensible, long-term UK-EU agreement is possible, probably, only after Brexit is well in the rear view mirror.
    Hmm. I remember pointing out how intractable negotiations would be well before the referendum. For my pains I got abused by the diehard Leavers, who have now moved seamlessly from saying how effortless striking a deal would be to saying how impossible striking a deal is now. Some humility, contrition and a few apologies on their parts would be in order.
    I never abused you for saying that.

    If you got some rough words from others might it be because it was as much how you said it as what you said?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:


    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.

    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.
    Good grief. Even when the death cult Leavers are in complete control, still they seek to blame Remainers for their own ineptitude. Vote Leave, Avoid Responsibility.
    LOL. No, the point is that the EU side are watching the UK press, and are interested in the opinions of those people they already know. For example Sadiq Khan in the papers today.

    The previous round of negotiations were to a large extent steered by pro-EU voices from the UK encouraging the EU to be as hard as possible, in the hope of forcing a second referendum.
    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.
    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    There is a deal to be struck. But Leavers have now persuaded themselves that no deal with the EU is anything other than treachery. That’s all very well for those who live thousands of miles away but some of us have to live through their willingness to play with the lives and livelihoods of those who live here.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,001
    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:


    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.
    Good grief. Even when the death cult Leavers are in complete control, still they seek to blame Remainers for their own ineptitude. Vote Leave, Avoid Responsibility.
    LOL. No, the point is that the EU side are watching the UK press, and are interested in the opinions of those people they already know. For example Sadiq Khan in the papers today.

    The previous round of negotiations were to a large extent steered by pro-EU voices from the UK encouraging the EU to be as hard as possible, in the hope of forcing a second referendum.
    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.
    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    No, I think they fully realise how bonkers and self destructive the Brexiteers are. There is no negotiating with people who do not understand what they have already agreed to with the Irish Sea border and the LPF commitment in the WDA.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:


    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.

    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.
    Good grief. Even when the death cult Leavers are in complete control, still they seek to blame Remainers for their own ineptitude. Vote Leave, Avoid Responsibility.
    LOL. No, the point is that the EU side are watching the UK press, and are interested in the opinions of those people they already know. For example Sadiq Khan in the papers today.

    The previous round of negotiations were to a large extent steered by pro-EU voices from the UK encouraging the EU to be as hard as possible, in the hope of forcing a second referendum.
    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.
    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    There is a deal to be struck. But Leavers have now persuaded themselves that no deal with the EU is anything other than treachery. That’s all very well for those who live thousands of miles away but some of us have to live through their willingness to play with the lives and livelihoods of those who live here.
    I think (and hope) that the deal will be struck, but it will require compromise on both sides. Good luck to all those involved in the negotiations.
    (Also surprised that you choose to play the man rather than the ball).
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,505
    How long will it be before dark tales appear in the press about how Grieve, Letwin and Gina Miller are undermining old Blighty by making secret representations to the EU?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 2,361

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.

    This has pretty much been my analysis since the vote was taken and the initial negotiating lines were handed to Bernier.
    And you and @Casino_Royale are completely correct.

    A sensible, long-term UK-EU agreement is possible, probably, only after Brexit is well in the rear view mirror.
    Hmm. I remember pointing out how intractable negotiations would be well before the referendum. For my pains I got abused by the diehard Leavers, who have now moved seamlessly from saying how effortless striking a deal would be to saying how impossible striking a deal is now. Some humility, contrition and a few apologies on their parts would be in order.
    I don't think you got the memo. If we no deal it is the fault of the EU and not HMG.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 11,910

    Some humility, contrition and a few apologies on their parts would be in order.

    I read that as "a few apologies in their pants"

    Pause.

    It was a funny few moments before I realised my mistake... :)

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368

    How long will it be before dark tales appear in the press about how Grieve, Letwin and Gina Miller are undermining old Blighty by making secret representations to the EU?

    The enemy within.

    Perhaps the master race should set up camps to concentrate us in.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.

    This has pretty much been my analysis since the vote was taken and the initial negotiating lines were handed to Bernier.
    And you and @Casino_Royale are completely correct.

    A sensible, long-term UK-EU agreement is possible, probably, only after Brexit is well in the rear view mirror.
    Hmm. I remember pointing out how intractable negotiations would be well before the referendum. For my pains I got abused by the diehard Leavers, who have now moved seamlessly from saying how effortless striking a deal would be to saying how impossible striking a deal is now. Some humility, contrition and a few apologies on their parts would be in order.
    I never abused you for saying that.

    If you got some rough words from others might it be because it was as much how you said it as what you said?
    You can reread the thread header for yourself:

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/03/02/the-idea-that-post-brexit-trade-negotiations-would-be-wrapped-up-quickly-is-divorced-from-reality/

    It was described by @TimT as “provocative click-bait”. It was described by @Philip_Thompson as a “bizarre hypothesis”.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,317
    edited February 18

    The EU will lose UK voter support in droves if they continue on their present path and will just see support for walking away rocket

    Some of the pro EU supporters and mps need to lobby the EU to tone down their hardline stance

    If not Boris will walk away and with the support of the majority

    The EU does not need UK support. We’re a third country now.

    Really.

    The EU do need to keep opinion on their side or see the EU enter into chaos as each country fights against tariffs re their products coming to the UK

    They will do what they believe is best for them. They clearly believe No Deal is more in their interests than the Deal the UK is after. While we, of course, believe the opposite. It looks like a rock solid political wall to me that will only be climbed after the alternative is experienced.

    They don't believe No Deal is in their interests. Not in the slightest, it would scupper any chance of a European recovery for several years and greatly sour the geopolitical milk across Europe for defence and security purposes.

    They are overplaying their hand in their belief Boris will fold (and they think he kind of did in October last year) to their Deal at the last minute.
    It would scupper a European recovery, but quite possibly cause a depression in the UK. Thus out of the two parties acting dangerously, Boris is the one overplaying his hand to the greater extent.
    It wouldn't cause a depression (5-10%+ collapse in GDP) in the UK.

    Everyone knows this is now horseshit, including you.

    It might well led to anemic growth for several years, or a 1-2% mild recession, which wouldn't move the battlelines much at all.
    No one knows anything of the sort., including myself, as they have no reason to ; there is no experience of being out of the EU's structures since 1973 to base such a knowledge on.

    The probabilities point to no-deal causing considerably more than mildly reduced growth or a mild recession, however.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,102
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:


    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.

    Good grief. Even when the death cult Leavers are in complete control, still they seek to blame Remainers for their own ineptitude. Vote Leave, Avoid Responsibility.
    LOL. No, the point is that the EU side are watching the UK press, and are interested in the opinions of those people they already know. For example Sadiq Khan in the papers today.

    The previous round of negotiations were to a large extent steered by pro-EU voices from the UK encouraging the EU to be as hard as possible, in the hope of forcing a second referendum.
    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.
    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    There is a deal to be struck. But Leavers have now persuaded themselves that no deal with the EU is anything other than treachery. That’s all very well for those who live thousands of miles away but some of us have to live through their willingness to play with the lives and livelihoods of those who live here.
    I think (and hope) that the deal will be struck, but it will require compromise on both sides. Good luck to all those involved in the negotiations.
    (Also surprised that you choose to play the man rather than the ball).
    Your remoteness from the action is important. You don’t have to worry about whether your partner’s medicines will run out because some maniacs decide they need to prove a point. You can cheer the maniacs on with no skin in the game.

    And you do.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,495

    How long will it be before dark tales appear in the press about how Grieve, Letwin and Gina Miller are undermining old Blighty by making secret representations to the EU?

    Maybe you could sell the idea to HMG? It could be a nice little earner.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,505
    edited February 18

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there for him to get away with it spinning it. And he's probably right.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,001

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 19,429

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.

    This has pretty much been my analysis since the vote was taken and the initial negotiating lines were handed to Bernier.
    And you and @Casino_Royale are completely correct.

    A sensible, long-term UK-EU agreement is possible, probably, only after Brexit is well in the rear view mirror.
    Hmm. I remember pointing out how intractable negotiations would be well before the referendum. For my pains I got abused by the diehard Leavers, who have now moved seamlessly from saying how effortless striking a deal would be to saying how impossible striking a deal is now. Some humility, contrition and a few apologies on their parts would be in order.
    I never abused you for saying that.

    If you got some rough words from others might it be because it was as much how you said it as what you said?
    You can reread the thread header for yourself:

    https://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/03/02/the-idea-that-post-brexit-trade-negotiations-would-be-wrapped-up-quickly-is-divorced-from-reality/

    It was described by @TimT as “provocative click-bait”. It was described by @Philip_Thompson as a “bizarre hypothesis”.
    Perhaps TimT could give us his perspective on that ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 25,211

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:


    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.

    Good grief. Even when the death cult Leavers are in complete control, still they seek to blame Remainers for their own ineptitude. Vote Leave, Avoid Responsibility.
    LOL. No, the point is that the EU side are watching the UK press, and are interested in the opinions of those people they already know. For example Sadiq Khan in the papers today.

    The previous round of negotiations were to a large extent steered by pro-EU voices from the UK encouraging the EU to be as hard as possible, in the hope of forcing a second referendum.
    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.
    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    There is a deal to be struck. But Leavers have now persuaded themselves that no deal with the EU is anything other than treachery. That’s all very well for those who live thousands of miles away but some of us have to live through their willingness to play with the lives and livelihoods of those who live here.
    I think (and hope) that the deal will be struck, but it will require compromise on both sides. Good luck to all those involved in the negotiations.
    (Also surprised that you choose to play the man rather than the ball).
    Your remoteness from the action is important. You don’t have to worry about whether your partner’s medicines will run out because some maniacs decide they need to prove a point. You can cheer the maniacs on with no skin in the game.

    And you do.
    If we’re playing that game, then you’re sufficiently isolated by your wealth from the vast majority of problems that your political views might impose on others, at least as much as I am.

    But hey, let’s not go down that road, this is a civilised forum.

    (Genuinely I wish you the best of luck in your retirement, and hope things are going well for your partner. It’s 1:30am where I am, so I’m banging out).
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,495
    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 747

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,495

    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.

    You are assuming that the more rabid type of Leaver (No Deal only) will accept it and that the DUP shuts up about Schrodinger's Border
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,311
    Michel Barnier comments are really no surprise . The UK would be pushing for the same thing if they were in the EU and say France had left .

    Canada +++ or whatever Leavers wanted to call it was on offer if the UK gave some guarantees on a level playing field .

    Do Leavers seriously think the EU is going to give the UK zero tariffs and zero quotas knowing that without guarantees they could then embark on a race to the bottom undercutting EU businesses .

    Do they seriously expect the EU to take any promises made by Bozo and the rest as likely to be kept to . When Bozo and his rancid cabinet continue to peddle lies over the Irish protocol why on earth would the EU have any faith in anything that’s in any trade deal unless it’s legally underpinned .

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,317
    edited February 18
    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    This is half the reason why the end of the year may see much greater political instability than many can currently imagine, dazzled by the glint of Johnson's generous majority and his apparent dominance ; the other being the potential for economic headwinds and crisis if the opposite route is taken.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 32,001

    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.

    You are assuming that the more rabid type of Leaver (No Deal only) will accept it and that the DUP shuts up about Schrodinger's Border
    He just needs to find a way to obfuscate the true nature of the deal and make it a Hard Brexit In Name Only.
  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 747
    Sandpit said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:

    r last sentence is correct. If it fails this year, I suspect we will have a deal by 2024 (i.e. before the next GE) because it will be too stupid not to do one with both sides having gone through and adjusted to a No Deal situation for 12-18 months.

    The issue may be more the UK who could be a bit "talk to the hand" by then.

    Of course - if No Deal turns out to be no problem it will become the status quo. I really don't think anyone is that angry. I just think that politically a deal at this time will be impossible to do. No-one is willing to compromise enough to get anything beyond some kind of skeleton arrangement over the line.

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.
    I do not see how the EU can maintain the position that it will give a better deal to Canada than to the UK, especially given the UK's historic military contribution and current intelligence contribution to Europe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368
    Gabs3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:

    r last sentence is correct. If it fails this year, I suspect we will have a deal by 2024 (i.e. before the next GE) because it will be too stupid not to do one with both sides having gone through and adjusted to a No Deal situation for 12-18 months.

    The issue may be more the UK who could be a bit "talk to the hand" by then.

    Of course - if No Deal turns out to be no problem it will become the status quo. I really don't think anyone is that angry. I just think that politically a deal at this time will be impossible to do. No-one is willing to compromise enough to get anything beyond some kind of skeleton arrangement over the line.

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.
    I do not see how the EU can maintain the position that it will give a better deal to Canada than to the UK, especially given the UK's historic military contribution and current intelligence contribution to Europe.
    Canada is also giving the EU a better deal than the UK. Trade deals tend to have mutual advantage, otherwise why bother?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,528

    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    This is half the reason why the end of the year may see much greater political instability than many can currently imagine, dazzled by the glint of Johnson's generous majority and his apparent dominance ; the other being the potential for economic headwinds and crisis if the opposite route is taken.
    I think that's likely. I think the key point is @Stark_Dawning 's observation that "Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects." The operative word here is "immediate". I can see Boris blustering straight through the July 1st extension request deadline (which would require primary UK legislation to request anyway, having been banned by the EUWA Act) full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes.

    And then sometime around November/December, there'll still be no deal and the sh*t will royally hit the fan.
  • Much that the Guardian and Jezza tried to downplay the crimes of those being deported, here is the charge sheet of the 17 'serious criminals' deported to Jamaica the other week.

    Rape
    ----
    One convicted for rape and given an 11 year sentence
    One convicted of rape and given a sentence of 4 years and 6 months

    Violent crime
    -----------
    One convicted for a violent assault and given a sentence of 1 year and 3 months
    One convicted of wounding with intend to cause GBH, possession of a weapon in public place Violent offences against a person (Wounding) 7 years
    One convicted of a violent crime against a person and given a 8 year sentence

    Drugs
    -----
    One convicted for intent to supply class A drugs – 7 year sentence
    One persistent offender, whose most recent conviction was for drugs offences and intimidating a witness and given a total sentence of 11 months
    One convicted for importing controlled drugs and given a sentence of four years
    One convicted to supplying class A drugs and given a sentence of four years and six months
    One convicted to supplying class A drugs and given a sentence of three years
    One convicted of importing controlled class B drugs and given a three year sentence
    One convicted of supplying class A drugs (crack cocaine) and given a sentence of 3 years and 2 months
    One convicted of supplying class A drugs and given a sentence of 3 years and 4 months

    Robbery and firearm offences
    -------------------------
    One convicted of robbery and given a life sentence
    One convicted of robbery, firearms offence, theft of a vehicle and possessing class A drugs, given a five year sentence
    One convicted for conspiracy to rob and possession of a firearm and given a sentence of 9 years

    Burglary
    -------
    One convicted of burglary and given a prison sentence of 2 years and 6 months
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    Relax everyone.

    Boris will cave to the EU just like he did on NI.

    Leavers are generally too dumb to understand the details so we are all good for an EU-controlled Brexit.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    Gabs3 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Gabs3 said:

    nichomar said:

    Gabs3 said:

    r last sentence is correct. If it fails this year, I suspect we will have a deal by 2024 (i.e. before the next GE) because it will be too stupid not to do one with both sides having gone through and adjusted to a No Deal situation for 12-18 months.

    The issue may be more the UK who could be a bit "talk to the hand" by then.

    Of course - if No Deal turns out to be no problem it will become the status quo. I really don't think anyone is that angry. I just think that politically a deal at this time will be impossible to do. No-one is willing to compromise enough to get anything beyond some kind of skeleton arrangement over the line.

    There's a lot of emotion on both sides, including within me and you. This colours things.

    The EU is still incredulous and in a daze that the UK actually went through with it, and the UK wants to be able to demonstrate a clear victory (any victory) over the EU, who some think as a nation-state extinguishing federalist Empire.

    That may need some time to work through before the grown-ups take charge.
    Pro-European people are going to once again screw up and lead us to a worse option. We need to fight now for a Canada deal or we will end up with the "Australian" no deal.
    The decision is For the government nobody else So how it all falls out is down to them.
    Politicians respond to political incentives. If the EU faces criticism for its hardline position from both sides in the UK, it will likely back down on it's ridiculous "we won't give you what we gave to Canada" position. If the UK government faces too much political pressure over extending, they will No Deal by December.
    The key reaction to watch now is the UK Remoaners. If they are still determined to fight the EU’s side with opinion pieces in the Guardian and ‘Independent’, then we are going to get no deal in December. If they will be pragmatic and support the win-win trade deal, then we’ll probably get one.
    I do not see how the EU can maintain the position that it will give a better deal to Canada than to the UK, especially given the UK's historic military contribution and current intelligence contribution to Europe.
    File under "Don't they realise who we are?"
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    Leavers don't understand the details. I wouldn't worry.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,495
    edited February 18

    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.

    You are assuming that the more rabid type of Leaver (No Deal only) will accept it and that the DUP shuts up about Schrodinger's Border
    He just needs to find a way to obfuscate the true nature of the deal and make it a Hard Brexit In Name Only.
    I am putting my faith in the DUP, not Boris :D

    The DUP might be regarded as stiff-necked bigots of the worst type, but they are fairly consistent unlike our glorious leader who seems to say "Yes" to whoever he spoke to last.

    Saying "yes" to everyone is about all the consistency you can expect from Boris
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,317
    edited February 18
    TOPPING said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    Leavers don't understand the details. I wouldn't worry.
    This is true of a fair-sized proportion of Leaver voters, but not of Leaver MP's and ministers.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,495
    TOPPING said:

    Relax everyone.

    Boris will cave to the EU just like he did on NI.

    Leavers are generally too dumb to understand the details so we are all good for an EU-controlled Brexit.

    Probably true...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 8,473
    edited February 18
    TOPPING said:

    Relax everyone.

    Boris will cave to the EU just like he did on NI.

    Leavers are generally too dumb to understand the details so we are all good for an EU-controlled Brexit.

    Correct. There will be a Soft Brexit deal packaged to look a bit sovereigny. And if necessary an Extension called something else.

    He's not called "Boris" for nothing.
  • Headline in FT

    Jaguar Land Rover facing closure due to Coronavirus
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582

    TOPPING said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    Leavers don't understand the details. I wouldn't worry.
    This is true of Leaver voters, but not of Leaver MP's and ministers.
    But what are they going to do... Provoke a Tory leadership challenge? Support a VoNC in the Government?

    Either would take us back to the chaos of last autumn and I just cannot see it. Boris is surely safe to push through whatever type of Brexit he wants.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368

    Headline in FT

    Jaguar Land Rover facing closure due to Coronavirus

    Hyundai have had to shut some lines due to lack of components from China.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582

    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.

    You are assuming that the more rabid type of Leaver (No Deal only) will accept it and that the DUP shuts up about Schrodinger's Border
    He just needs to find a way to obfuscate the true nature of the deal and make it a Hard Brexit In Name Only.
    I am putting my faith in the DUP, not Boris :D

    The DUP might be regarded as stiff-necked bigots of the worst type, but they are fairly consistent unlike our glorious leader who seems to say "Yes" to whoever he spoke to last.

    Saying "yes" to everyone is about all the consistency you can expect from Boris
    What power do the DUP have though?
  • TOPPING said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    Leavers don't understand the details. I wouldn't worry.
    This is true of Leaver voters, but not of Leaver MP's and ministers.
    But what are they going to do... Provoke a Tory leadership challenge? Support a VoNC in the Government?

    Either would take us back to the chaos of last autumn and I just cannot see it. Boris is surely safe to push through whatever type of Brexit he wants.
    Your last sentence hits the nail on the head
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582

    Headline in FT

    Jaguar Land Rover facing closure due to Coronavirus


    ...facing closures...

    Subtly different.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,505

    TOPPING said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    Leavers don't understand the details. I wouldn't worry.
    This is true of a fair-sized proportion of Leaver voters, but not of Leaver MP's and ministers.
    They've now got their careers to think about. Unlike in Dave's time, there's no point jumping off the Boris train. There's nothing else. Boris has politics sewn up for the for foreseeable future.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,495

    TOPPING said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    Leavers don't understand the details. I wouldn't worry.
    This is true of Leaver voters, but not of Leaver MP's and ministers.
    But what are they going to do... Provoke a Tory leadership challenge? Support a VoNC in the Government?

    Either would take us back to the chaos of last autumn and I just cannot see it. Boris is surely safe to push through whatever type of Brexit he wants.
    It depends how many headbangers and brexit-loons were elected to Tory ranks. How can we know until the crisis hits?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223

    TOPPING said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    Leavers don't understand the details. I wouldn't worry.
    This is true of a fair-sized proportion of Leaver voters, but not of Leaver MP's and ministers.
    What can they do? There's a majority of 80. Let them resign.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,495

    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.

    You are assuming that the more rabid type of Leaver (No Deal only) will accept it and that the DUP shuts up about Schrodinger's Border
    He just needs to find a way to obfuscate the true nature of the deal and make it a Hard Brexit In Name Only.
    I am putting my faith in the DUP, not Boris :D

    The DUP might be regarded as stiff-necked bigots of the worst type, but they are fairly consistent unlike our glorious leader who seems to say "Yes" to whoever he spoke to last.

    Saying "yes" to everyone is about all the consistency you can expect from Boris
    What power do the DUP have though?
    The power to ask awkward questions. The Emperor's New Clothes were ruined by one small boy pointing out the obvious...
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223

    TOPPING said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    Leavers don't understand the details. I wouldn't worry.
    This is true of Leaver voters, but not of Leaver MP's and ministers.
    But what are they going to do... Provoke a Tory leadership challenge? Support a VoNC in the Government?

    Either would take us back to the chaos of last autumn and I just cannot see it. Boris is surely safe to push through whatever type of Brexit he wants.
    Exactly.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 2,317
    edited February 18

    TOPPING said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects . Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    -.. and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish as proof that he was right all along.
    just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    .

    This is true of Leaver voters, but not of Leaver MP's and ministers.
    But what are they going to do... Provoke a Tory leadership challenge? Support a VoNC in the Government?

    Either would take us back to the chaos of last autumn and I just cannot see it. Boris is surely safe to push through whatever type of Brexit he wants.
    His huge majority gives him a significant cushion, but there may be more than 80 currently affiliated with the ERG, given that the pre-election count was at least 70 .

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-mps-flock-to-join-tory-eurosceptic-group-wm05fgh2g

    His election victory has still lent him significant legitimacy over them in the party in a crisis, but then the attention would simply shift to the potential for defection to Farage and the Brexit Party.

    This is a key fact - the issue is still not contained within the Conservative Party, and in the event of a "traitor's" soft brexit there is still an alternative power centre - the one that actually initiated Brexit - for both MP's, pundits and voters to gravitate towards.
  • eadriceadric Posts: 2,004

    Headline in FT

    Jaguar Land Rover facing closure due to Coronavirus


    ...facing closures...

    Subtly different.
    Supply chains are now being very badly hit

    And here is the first public discussion of the possibility of cancelling the Olympics (tho they say it is too early to tell)

    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200219/p2g/00m/0na/010000c

    Another editorial in the same paper says Japan must prepare for a likely outbreak
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    eadric said:

    Headline in FT

    Jaguar Land Rover facing closure due to Coronavirus


    ...facing closures...

    Subtly different.
    Supply chains are now being very badly hit

    And here is the first public discussion of the possibility of cancelling the Olympics (tho they say it is too early to tell)

    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200219/p2g/00m/0na/010000c

    Another editorial in the same paper says Japan must prepare for a likely outbreak
    Still not banging on about Coronavirus I see.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    Gabs3 said:

    I do not see how the EU can maintain the position that it will give a better deal to Canada than to the UK, especially given the UK's historic military contribution and current intelligence contribution to Europe.

    The EU-Canada deal contains a lot of things that are germane only for relations between the EU and Canada, including various bits and pieces on it not overriding various treaty commitments to indigenous people in Canada (or Finnish Lapland).

    See: http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2014/september/tradoc_152806.pdf

    It also carves out a lot of rights of Denmark (pages 1042 on) which would not be applicable in the case of an EU-UK deal. (Or, at least, would be unacceptable to the UK government.)

    So, I think it's a bit naive to think that we could just take the EU-Canada deal and change "Canada" for "UK".
  • eadriceadric Posts: 2,004
    TOPPING said:

    eadric said:

    Headline in FT

    Jaguar Land Rover facing closure due to Coronavirus


    ...facing closures...

    Subtly different.
    Supply chains are now being very badly hit

    And here is the first public discussion of the possibility of cancelling the Olympics (tho they say it is too early to tell)

    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200219/p2g/00m/0na/010000c

    Another editorial in the same paper says Japan must prepare for a likely outbreak
    Still not banging on about Coronavirus I see.
    It makes a change from you endlessly banging on about Brexit.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    eadric said:

    TOPPING said:

    eadric said:

    Headline in FT

    Jaguar Land Rover facing closure due to Coronavirus


    ...facing closures...

    Subtly different.
    Supply chains are now being very badly hit

    And here is the first public discussion of the possibility of cancelling the Olympics (tho they say it is too early to tell)

    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200219/p2g/00m/0na/010000c

    Another editorial in the same paper says Japan must prepare for a likely outbreak
    Still not banging on about Coronavirus I see.
    It makes a change from you endlessly banging on about Brexit.
    I don't endlessly bang on about Brexit. I bang on about morons who misunderstand the consequences of Brexit.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 2,495
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    Leavers don't understand the details. I wouldn't worry.
    This is true of a fair-sized proportion of Leaver voters, but not of Leaver MP's and ministers.
    What can they do? There's a majority of 80. Let them resign.
    And if 41 are headbangers?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582

    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.

    You are assuming that the more rabid type of Leaver (No Deal only) will accept it and that the DUP shuts up about Schrodinger's Border
    He just needs to find a way to obfuscate the true nature of the deal and make it a Hard Brexit In Name Only.
    I am putting my faith in the DUP, not Boris :D

    The DUP might be regarded as stiff-necked bigots of the worst type, but they are fairly consistent unlike our glorious leader who seems to say "Yes" to whoever he spoke to last.

    Saying "yes" to everyone is about all the consistency you can expect from Boris
    What power do the DUP have though?
    The power to ask awkward questions. The Emperor's New Clothes were ruined by one small boy pointing out the obvious...
    Well, we'll see... but if awkward questions had half the power they ought to have to damage Boris he'd be history right now.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Gabs3 said:

    Foxy said:

    Sandpit said:

    You think that anyone in Brussels thinks that Boris Johnson is listening to sane Remain voices? Wakey wakey.

    God no. I do however think that the EU hasn’t yet realised that the current UK government will actually walk away. They won’t realise this until the June deadline, and even then not until their ‘friends’ in UK politics and media make it clear to them.
    The current UK government is the one that capitulated to putting the principle of an Irish Sea customs border in UK law. Why would they think it is serious about walking away? In fact Boris Johnson gives no impression of being serious about any of it. It's all theatre to manage domestic politics and play the Eurosceptic hardman, just like proroguing parliament was.
    Yes, Boris will agree to anything that doesn't harm his immediate prospects. An economic calamity would. Capitulation to the EU less so - Boris will calculate there's still enough Boris love out there from him to get away with it. And he's probably right.
    Boris can sell complete capitulation as total victory as he gets to brag about proving the doubters and doomsters wrong, and he can point to the absence of checks in the Irish Sea as proof that he was right all along.
    Nailed on. Johnson will declare victory and move on, just as America did in Vietnam in 1973.
    The public is not a homogeneous mass on this. Half of them may swallow it, but the other half will point out the flaws.
    I think the Leavers would resign if Boris now accepted rule-taking and ECJ oversight.
    Leavers don't understand the details. I wouldn't worry.
    This is true of a fair-sized proportion of Leaver voters, but not of Leaver MP's and ministers.
    What can they do? There's a majority of 80. Let them resign.
    And if 41 are headbangers?
    I'm not sure there are. Haven't done a head count. Plus don't forget the new intake pledge. Plenty of back up for Boris there
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 467
    edited February 18
    TOPPING said:

    Relax everyone.

    Boris will cave to the EU just like he did on NI.

    Leavers are generally too dumb to understand the details so we are all good for an EU-controlled Brexit.

    I thought that. I was convinced of it. The only question was who would play the part of the DUP and be ruthlessly thrown under the bus.

    However, since the start of the year and the redefinition of no deal as "an Australian-style deal" I now think differently. Boris is in thrall to the creative destruction types, the revolutionary purists who reject compromise as the work of quislings.

    That is, after all, why Northern Ireland was cut free - so that Britain could choose to have no ties with the EU at all. Why make that sacrifice if not willing to follow through?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    I see Liverpool's season has all turned to mush then :smile:
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 523
    TOPPING said:

    eadric said:

    TOPPING said:

    eadric said:

    Headline in FT

    Jaguar Land Rover facing closure due to Coronavirus


    ...facing closures...

    Subtly different.
    Supply chains are now being very badly hit

    And here is the first public discussion of the possibility of cancelling the Olympics (tho they say it is too early to tell)

    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200219/p2g/00m/0na/010000c

    Another editorial in the same paper says Japan must prepare for a likely outbreak
    Still not banging on about Coronavirus I see.
    It makes a change from you endlessly banging on about Brexit.
    I don't endlessly bang on about Brexit. I bang on about morons who misunderstand the consequences of Brexit.
    Let's just settle for you just bang on
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,035

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    DavidL said:


    Whilst that is true it is also appropriate to recognise that a lot of City/financial sector workers have come here over that time and are major contributors to our GDP per capita.

    Those will definitely be pulling the productivity figures up, but I figure there’s probably been way more baristas than barristers and financiers arriving from the EU over the past decade.
    That screams for a “citation needed”. I realise that might be received wisdom in the saloon bars of immigrants in Dubai, but you might try to back it up with evidence.
    Seriously? Do you really think that there’s been more financiers and footballers, or baristas and uber drivers, from the EU to the UK over the past decade? IIRC total immigration has been around 5m in that period, what proportion of those do you think pay the 45% rate of income tax? I’ll go with less than 1%.
    Just educated).

    It’s quite something to be an immigrant yourself to another country and display a baseless rabid hostility to immigration.
    As an immigrant to another country I can see this from both sides.

    If wthan it is now?
    You immigrants.

    At present Britain lets in a group that in aggregate greatly benefits it without putting up barriers. In all probability your barricades would leave Britain much worse off.
    We take it out of the hands of the immigration services and leave it to businesses to pick winners and pay any associated fee like @rcs1000 suggested.

    Liverpool recruited.

    He originally came to the UK in 2013 to play for Celtic thanks to free movement. He then moved to Southampton and from there to Liverpool

    Free?

    Actually he originally came to the UK thanks to Celtic paying £2.6 million to recruit him. I don't think a £5000 migration fee would have put Celtic off considering they paid £2.6 million.

    Until 2015, non-EU foreign footballers needed to have played 75% or more of their countries' internationals over the previous two years in order to get a UK work visa. As van Dijk had not played for the Netherlands when he joined Celtic the only thing that got him in was his EU citizenship.

    I think it’s great that we no longer discriminate against non Europeans
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 14,368

    I see Liverpool's season has all turned to mush then :smile:

    Not quite, there is the home leg.

    Magnificent defending by Athletico, but glad that I don't have to watch that every week!
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 523

    I see Liverpool's season has all turned to mush then :smile:

    I would guess many others (everyone else?) would settle for their mushy season.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280

    Much that the Guardian and Jezza tried to downplay the crimes of those being deported, here is the charge sheet of the 17 'serious criminals' deported to Jamaica the other week.

    Rape
    ----
    One convicted for rape and given an 11 year sentence
    One convicted of rape and given a sentence of 4 years and 6 months

    Violent crime
    -----------
    One convicted for a violent assault and given a sentence of 1 year and 3 months
    One convicted of wounding with intend to cause GBH, possession of a weapon in public place Violent offences against a person (Wounding) 7 years
    One convicted of a violent crime against a person and given a 8 year sentence

    Drugs
    -----
    One convicted for intent to supply class A drugs – 7 year sentence
    One persistent offender, whose most recent conviction was for drugs offences and intimidating a witness and given a total sentence of 11 months
    One convicted for importing controlled drugs and given a sentence of four years
    One convicted to supplying class A drugs and given a sentence of four years and six months
    One convicted to supplying class A drugs and given a sentence of three years
    One convicted of importing controlled class B drugs and given a three year sentence
    One convicted of supplying class A drugs (crack cocaine) and given a sentence of 3 years and 2 months
    One convicted of supplying class A drugs and given a sentence of 3 years and 4 months

    Robbery and firearm offences
    -------------------------
    One convicted of robbery and given a life sentence
    One convicted of robbery, firearms offence, theft of a vehicle and possessing class A drugs, given a five year sentence
    One convicted for conspiracy to rob and possession of a firearm and given a sentence of 9 years

    Burglary
    -------
    One convicted of burglary and given a prison sentence of 2 years and 6 months

    Bah, we've had more serious prison sentences among the PB commentariat. These are bloody lightweights.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,950
    No Can a do.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 12,582
    edited February 18
    Foxy said:

    I see Liverpool's season has all turned to mush then :smile:

    Not quite, there is the home leg.

    Magnificent defending by Athletico, but glad that I don't have to watch that every week!
    Slippery slope Foxy - it's all downhill for LFC from here (🤞)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    alterego said:

    TOPPING said:

    eadric said:

    TOPPING said:

    eadric said:

    Headline in FT

    Jaguar Land Rover facing closure due to Coronavirus


    ...facing closures...

    Subtly different.
    Supply chains are now being very badly hit

    And here is the first public discussion of the possibility of cancelling the Olympics (tho they say it is too early to tell)

    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20200219/p2g/00m/0na/010000c

    Another editorial in the same paper says Japan must prepare for a likely outbreak
    Still not banging on about Coronavirus I see.
    It makes a change from you endlessly banging on about Brexit.
    I don't endlessly bang on about Brexit. I bang on about morons who misunderstand the consequences of Brexit.
    Let's just settle for you just bang on
    Not sure what that means.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,035
    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If it was up to me I'd go with a hybrid migration service that is an adjusted version of free movement.

    Key points
    1: Do not discriminate.
    2: Migrants pay a fixed annual fee eg £5,000 per annum to contribute to society, the NHS etc
    3: Migrants are ineligble to any form of welfare for 4 years. If they wish to pay for some form of insurance then up to them but that should be private not state provided.
    4: Migrants must not commit criminal offences. Any criminal offence (not speeding etc) leads to deportation.
    5: Must not be criminals in their home nation before migrating here and must have a clean bill of health.
    6: After 4 years migrants can apply for permanent residence so long as they've maintained their payments, steady employment and can speak English fluently (not a requirement I'd make for temporary migration).

    As a business exec, I would also make temporary (secondment) work visas easy. If I want Blake from our Los Angeles Data Science team to spend six months with Engineering in London, that should be pretty easy. (This was a big issue at my former company too.)

    Making these temporary visits, which are too long to call a business trip, but definitely aren't permanent migration, easy should be a key priority.

    Speed of recruitment is key. We still want the best people in IT, say, to see the UK as the place ot come, so they should be able to apply for jobs while in the UK as tourists and should be fast-tracked through any red tape very quickly. I am thinking of that piece your friend/client (?) from Silicon Roundabout wrote before the referendum. We already find it very tough to find decent developers, designers and programmers. Throw in a ton of bureaucracy and it gets even harder.

    He's just opened a second development centre in Lisbon (to complement the London one), and has bought an apartment there.

    I hope he's not a harbinger of things to come.

    It is a concern. We need peopel yesterday, not in two months' time. We are also looking at opening up in the Single Market. If the talent pool is reduced in size significantly we will have no choice regardless of other factors.

    What does 'no choice' mean - you'll recruit locals?
    If your company has international sales, and you run on tight margins, then you are always going to be looking around both the country and the world to see how you can do things more cheaply.

    If you don't do that, you will soon find yourself with an ex-company.
    What are these “tight margins” of which you speak?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,223
    edited February 18

    TOPPING said:

    Relax everyone.

    Boris will cave to the EU just like he did on NI.

    Leavers are generally too dumb to understand the details so we are all good for an EU-controlled Brexit.

    I thought that. I was convinced of it. The only question was who would play the part of the DUP and be ruthlessly thrown under the bus.

    However, since the start of the year and the redefinition of no deal as "an Australian-style deal" I now think differently. Boris is in thrall to the creative destruction types, the revolutionary purists who reject compromise as the work of quislings.

    That is, after all, why Northern Ireland was cut free - so that Britain could choose to have no ties with the EU at all. Why make that sacrifice if not willing to follow through?
    Boris is at heart a metropolitan liberal. He's not going to do anything too dramatic.

    I think he will accede to the EU and then somehow claw back NI. Not an easy task but I think breaking up the Union will sit badly with him.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,035

    a

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    If they ever want us to rejoin they do.

    I doubt it’s a priority!

    Really?

    Without

    There is no "They". There are 27 different countries with 27 different agendas. Poland will see this very differently to Portugal who will see it very differently to France. That was always going to be one of the dificulties of this stage of Brexit.

    I do not think they will want the UK back until a significant proportion of the Boomers have popped their clogs. Why buy trouble?
    They won't want the UK back until there's a decent national consensus not subject to the electoral cycle.

    That means convincing people like me, not Boomers.

    Good luck.
    They don’t need to win over the bay-at-the-moon Leaver contingent. So your views can be heavily discounted.
    I'm going to ignore the insult. But I could argue plenty of your own views are "batty" if I were as rude as you are on Brexit.

    They need to win over a substantial contingent of Leavers and establish a political consensus within the UK, which means the Conservative Party too.

    How do you expect that to be achieved given 80%+ are currently now Leavers?
    Where do you get this 80%+ figure from?
    Ok, perhaps 70-75% for voters. Probably 80%+ for Conservative Party members. 90%+ of Conservative voters in terms of honouring the vote.

    "Nearly three quarters (73%) of Conservative voters said they voted Leave and wanted Brexit to happen as soon as possible; a further 18% said they voted Remain but wanted the referendum result to be honoured."

    https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/12/how-britain-voted-and-why-my-2019-general-election-post-vote-poll/
    Oh, Conservatives. There will come a point where as much attention need be paid to Conservatives as has been paid to Labour supporters recently. And given how determined Leavers have been to rule by majority rather than create a consensus, they will deserve everything they get.
    Yup, didn't think you had an answer to that.
    It is an answer. It’s one that should terrify you on several levels.
    I doubt the EU would want us back if it is a party political issue
  • Foxy said:

    I see Liverpool's season has all turned to mush then :smile:

    Not quite, there is the home leg.

    Magnificent defending by Athletico, but glad that I don't have to watch that every week!
    Indeed. I hope its not arrogant to say I think we should should still be (slim) favourites to go through to the next round. Should be able to overturn a goal at Anfield.

    No Away Goal though. So won't be able to relax in the home leg unless we're three goals up. Even at 2 up we'd be going out if they get one back.
  • eadriceadric Posts: 2,004
    rcs1000 said:

    Much that the Guardian and Jezza tried to downplay the crimes of those being deported, here is the charge sheet of the 17 'serious criminals' deported to Jamaica the other week.

    Rape
    ----
    One convicted for rape and given an 11 year sentence
    One convicted of rape and given a sentence of 4 years and 6 months

    Violent crime
    -----------
    One convicted for a violent assault and given a sentence of 1 year and 3 months
    One convicted of wounding with intend to cause GBH, possession of a weapon in public place Violent offences against a person (Wounding) 7 years
    One convicted of a violent crime against a person and given a 8 year sentence

    Drugs
    -----
    One convicted for intent to supply class A drugs – 7 year sentence
    One persistent offender, whose most recent conviction was for drugs offences and intimidating a witness and given a total sentence of 11 months
    One convicted for importing controlled drugs and given a sentence of four years
    One convicted to supplying class A drugs and given a sentence of four years and six months
    One convicted to supplying class A drugs and given a sentence of three years
    One convicted of importing controlled class B drugs and given a three year sentence
    One convicted of supplying class A drugs (crack cocaine) and given a sentence of 3 years and 2 months
    One convicted of supplying class A drugs and given a sentence of 3 years and 4 months

    Robbery and firearm offences
    -------------------------
    One convicted of robbery and given a life sentence
    One convicted of robbery, firearms offence, theft of a vehicle and possessing class A drugs, given a five year sentence
    One convicted for conspiracy to rob and possession of a firearm and given a sentence of 9 years

    Burglary
    -------
    One convicted of burglary and given a prison sentence of 2 years and 6 months

    Bah, we've had more serious prison sentences among the PB commentariat. These are bloody lightweights.
    If you get 11 years for rape it means it was on the nastier end of the offending spectrum.

    Likewise a life sentence for robbery.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 30,473
    edited February 18

    Foxy said:

    I see Liverpool's season has all turned to mush then :smile:

    Not quite, there is the home leg.

    Magnificent defending by Athletico, but glad that I don't have to watch that every week!
    Slippery slope Foxy - it's all downhill for LFC from here (🤞)
    If we win the League and no other trophies I think all LFC fans will have taken that at the start of the season.

    If we don't win the League nobody will remember who Kevin Keegan is when it comes to choking.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    Charles said:

    I doubt the EU would want us back if it is a party political issue

    Agreed. The EU would only want us if we overwhelmingly backed the EU project.

    Now, that may happen. I am no sage.

    But I think it extremely unlikely in my lifetime.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    eadric said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Much that the Guardian and Jezza tried to downplay the crimes of those being deported, here is the charge sheet of the 17 'serious criminals' deported to Jamaica the other week.

    Rape
    ----
    One convicted for rape and given an 11 year sentence
    One convicted of rape and given a sentence of 4 years and 6 months

    Violent crime
    -----------
    One convicted for a violent assault and given a sentence of 1 year and 3 months
    One convicted of wounding with intend to cause GBH, possession of a weapon in public place Violent offences against a person (Wounding) 7 years
    One convicted of a violent crime against a person and given a 8 year sentence

    Drugs
    -----
    One convicted for intent to supply class A drugs – 7 year sentence
    One persistent offender, whose most recent conviction was for drugs offences and intimidating a witness and given a total sentence of 11 months
    One convicted for importing controlled drugs and given a sentence of four years
    One convicted to supplying class A drugs and given a sentence of four years and six months
    One convicted to supplying class A drugs and given a sentence of three years
    One convicted of importing controlled class B drugs and given a three year sentence
    One convicted of supplying class A drugs (crack cocaine) and given a sentence of 3 years and 2 months
    One convicted of supplying class A drugs and given a sentence of 3 years and 4 months

    Robbery and firearm offences
    -------------------------
    One convicted of robbery and given a life sentence
    One convicted of robbery, firearms offence, theft of a vehicle and possessing class A drugs, given a five year sentence
    One convicted for conspiracy to rob and possession of a firearm and given a sentence of 9 years

    Burglary
    -------
    One convicted of burglary and given a prison sentence of 2 years and 6 months

    Bah, we've had more serious prison sentences among the PB commentariat. These are bloody lightweights.
    If you get 11 years for rape it means it was on the nastier end of the offending spectrum.

    Likewise a life sentence for robbery.
    Errrr.

    I was joking.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 30,280
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If it was up to me I'd go with a hybrid migration service that is an adjusted version of free movement.

    Key points
    1: Do not discriminate.
    2: Migrants pay a fixed annual fee eg £5,000 per annum to contribute to society, the NHS etc
    3: Migrants are ineligble to any form of welfare for 4 years. If they wish to pay for some form of insurance then up to them but that should be private not state provided.
    4: Migrants must not commit criminal offences. Any criminal offence (not speeding etc) leads to deportation.
    5: Must not be criminals in their home nation before migrating here and must have a clean bill of health.
    6: After 4 years migrants can apply for permanent residence so long as they've maintained their payments, steady employment and can speak English fluently (not a requirement I'd make for temporary migration).

    As a business exec, I would also make temporary (secondment) work visas easy. If I want Blake from our Los Angeles Data Science team to spend six months with Engineering in London, that should be pretty easy. (This was a big issue at my former company too.)

    Making these temporary visits, which are too long to call a business trip, but definitely aren't permanent migration, easy should be a key priority.

    Speed of recruitment is key. We still want the best people in IT, say, to see the UK as the place ot come, so they should be able to apply for jobs while in the UK as tourists and should be fast-tracked through any red tape very quickly. I am thinking of that piece your friend/client (?) from Silicon Roundabout wrote before the referendum. We already find it very tough to find decent developers, designers and programmers. Throw in a ton of bureaucracy and it gets even harder.

    He's just opened a second development centre in Lisbon (to complement the London one), and has bought an apartment there.

    I hope he's not a harbinger of things to come.

    It is a concern. We need peopel yesterday, not in two months' time. We are also looking at opening up in the Single Market. If the talent pool is reduced in size significantly we will have no choice regardless of other factors.

    What does 'no choice' mean - you'll recruit locals?
    If your company has international sales, and you run on tight margins, then you are always going to be looking around both the country and the world to see how you can do things more cheaply.

    If you don't do that, you will soon find yourself with an ex-company.
    What are these “tight margins” of which you speak?
    :lol:
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