Foster still hasn't learnt that the decision has already been made. The decision was taken 4 years ago that we are leaving the EU, that we are taking back control of our laws, borders, money and natural resources like fish.
Foster like many Remainers seems to think its up for debate. That we are yet to decide what kind of future we'll take. He seems to wish whether we will be aligned or not in laws is a decision to be made based on evidence to be presented now. Its not, the evidence was presented 4 years ago.
Those who believed that breaking our alignment presented their case 4 years ago. Those who believed it was for the best presented their case 4 years ago. The public decided 4 years ago.
Time to get on with it now.
We do not have to get on with it. It is your project, not Remainia's. You get on with it and we will watch in rapt admiration.......
This element of the virus obviously makes it even worse...
A woman in Japan who recovered from coronavirus and was released from hospital has tested positive again. The 40-year-old woman, who was initially infected after working on a tour bus with sightseers from Wuhan, tested positive for a second time yesterday.
I have no medical knowledge so please correct me about this.
As I understand it, vaccines work by giving a very small does of a weekend virus to a person so that the persons immune system gets used to fighting that virus, as a result when the person is attacked by the real virus the immune system has a head start.
The same principal as not been able to get chicken-pocks or other viruses twice, the immune system has 'learnt' how to fight them'
If that understanding is correct, but for this virus you can catch it twice, does that mean that a vaccine will not be possible or at least will be a lot harder?
This element of the virus obviously makes it even worse...
A woman in Japan who recovered from coronavirus and was released from hospital has tested positive again. The 40-year-old woman, who was initially infected after working on a tour bus with sightseers from Wuhan, tested positive for a second time yesterday.
I have no medical knowledge so please correct me about this.
As I understand it, vaccines work by giving a very small does of a weekend virus to a person so that the persons immune system gets used to fighting that virus, as a result when the person is attacked by the real virus the immune system has a head start.
The same principal as not been able to get chicken-pocks or other viruses twice, the immune system has 'learnt' how to fight them'
If that understanding is correct, but for this virus you can catch it twice, does that mean that a vaccine will not be possible or at least will be a lot harder?
Don't what to start any panic, just asking.
Your basic understanding of how the vaccine work sounds about right, but some viruses (virii?) mutate meaning a new version of the vaccine is needed each year.
Perhaps this strain has two slightly different versions?
This element of the virus obviously makes it even worse...
A woman in Japan who recovered from coronavirus and was released from hospital has tested positive again. The 40-year-old woman, who was initially infected after working on a tour bus with sightseers from Wuhan, tested positive for a second time yesterday.
I have no medical knowledge so please correct me about this.
As I understand it, vaccines work by giving a very small does of a weekend virus to a person so that the persons immune system gets used to fighting that virus, as a result when the person is attacked by the real virus the immune system has a head start.
The same principal as not been able to get chicken-pocks or other viruses twice, the immune system has 'learnt' how to fight them'
If that understanding is correct, but for this virus you can catch it twice, does that mean that a vaccine will not be possible or at least will be a lot harder?
Don't what to start any panic, just asking.
You seem to be assuming the Japanese person got then virus, recovered, and then was infected afresh. Yet there are various other possible explanations.
This element of the virus obviously makes it even worse...
A woman in Japan who recovered from coronavirus and was released from hospital has tested positive again. The 40-year-old woman, who was initially infected after working on a tour bus with sightseers from Wuhan, tested positive for a second time yesterday.
I have no medical knowledge so please correct me about this.
As I understand it, vaccines work by giving a very small does of a weekend virus to a person so that the persons immune system gets used to fighting that virus, as a result when the person is attacked by the real virus the immune system has a head start.
The same principal as not been able to get chicken-pocks or other viruses twice, the immune system has 'learnt' how to fight them'
If that understanding is correct, but for this virus you can catch it twice, does that mean that a vaccine will not be possible or at least will be a lot harder?
Don't what to start any panic, just asking.
Your basic understanding of how the vaccine work sounds about right, but some viruses (virii?) mutate meaning a new version of the vaccine is needed each year.
Perhaps this strain has two slightly different versions?
OK that would make sense, if that is the case then we would need lots of vaccines for all the different virii/viruses, which sounds hard, but not impossible
This element of the virus obviously makes it even worse...
A woman in Japan who recovered from coronavirus and was released from hospital has tested positive again. The 40-year-old woman, who was initially infected after working on a tour bus with sightseers from Wuhan, tested positive for a second time yesterday.
I have no medical knowledge so please correct me about this.
As I understand it, vaccines work by giving a very small does of a weekend virus to a person so that the persons immune system gets used to fighting that virus, as a result when the person is attacked by the real virus the immune system has a head start.
The same principal as not been able to get chicken-pocks or other viruses twice, the immune system has 'learnt' how to fight them'
If that understanding is correct, but for this virus you can catch it twice, does that mean that a vaccine will not be possible or at least will be a lot harder?
Don't what to start any panic, just asking.
It depends on the virus. Antibodies form to antigens (surface proteins on the virus), and these give long term protection. Some viruses are quite antigenically stable, others (like influenza) regularly change these to new forms, so antibodies lose their effectiveness. That is why a new flu vaccine is needed every year, based on anticipation of which strains are thought likely to be active.
This element of the virus obviously makes it even worse...
A woman in Japan who recovered from coronavirus and was released from hospital has tested positive again. The 40-year-old woman, who was initially infected after working on a tour bus with sightseers from Wuhan, tested positive for a second time yesterday.
I have no medical knowledge so please correct me about this.
As I understand it, vaccines work by giving a very small does of a weekend virus to a person so that the persons immune system gets used to fighting that virus, as a result when the person is attacked by the real virus the immune system has a head start.
The same principal as not been able to get chicken-pocks or other viruses twice, the immune system has 'learnt' how to fight them'
If that understanding is correct, but for this virus you can catch it twice, does that mean that a vaccine will not be possible or at least will be a lot harder?
Don't what to start any panic, just asking.
You seem to be assuming the Japanese person got then virus, recovered, and then was infected afresh. Yet there are various other possible explanations.
Yes, it would be unlikely to be a reinfection with the same virus, more likely a lingering carrier state. That has it's own implications though.
This element of the virus obviously makes it even worse...
A woman in Japan who recovered from coronavirus and was released from hospital has tested positive again. The 40-year-old woman, who was initially infected after working on a tour bus with sightseers from Wuhan, tested positive for a second time yesterday.
I have no medical knowledge so please correct me about this.
As I understand it, vaccines work by giving a very small does of a weekend virus to a person so that the persons immune system gets used to fighting that virus, as a result when the person is attacked by the real virus the immune system has a head start.
The same principal as not been able to get chicken-pocks or other viruses twice, the immune system has 'learnt' how to fight them'
If that understanding is correct, but for this virus you can catch it twice, does that mean that a vaccine will not be possible or at least will be a lot harder?
Don't what to start any panic, just asking.
You seem to be assuming the Japanese person got then virus, recovered, and then was infected afresh. Yet there are various other possible explanations.
Yes, it would be unlikely to be a reinfection with the same virus, more likely a lingering carrier state. That has it's own implications though.
Could it be a dodgy test that is picking up the immune reaction from the previous infection?
I've read very little (nothing) about the test. What % are false negatives, false positives etc. How does the test work?
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
Those infection rates look way too high for the first year. Those Brits in the ski chalet spent a whole holiday in close confinement with each other and despite multiple carriers in there, more than half of them returned home uninfected.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
There are just over 600,000 deaths annually in the UK to put all that into perspective.
Spanish brothels are weird. Before hostilities commence you have to buy an amenity pack containing a johnny and various other ephemera at a small window that reminded me of the tuck shop at school. On visit to NAS Rota we got the wheels off our MoD supplied hire car nicked outside a knocking shop near Seville. Luckily there was another Corsa in an adjacent car park so we thieved the wheels off that while keeping a weather eye for the Policia.
When I was breaking all health and safety regulations (which didn't exit then) training as a youngster in a radio and TV repair shop I learned that my boss had been brought up by an uncle because both his parents had succumbed to the Spanish 1918 flu, which hit hardest those folks with strong immune systems.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
Those infection rates look way too high for the first year. Those Brits in the ski chalet spent a whole holiday in close confinement with each other and despite multiple carriers in there, more than half of them returned home uninfected.
It’s also what has been predicted by quite a few epidemiologists. Like this guy at Harvard: 40-70%
The good news is that younger people seem more resistant and/or much more able to brush off the disease as a minor illness. When us oldies have been culled, they can move up the employment ladder, inherit our homes, rerun the EU referendum and get on happily with the rest of their lives.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
There are just over 600,000 deaths annually in the UK to put all that into perspective.
Don’t forget to add in all the ripple effects. The enormous economic slowdown. Social dislocation. Businesses going bust. Hospitals in total crisis. Old people dropping dead on street corners and the panic that would cause.
And of course all the other countries in the world would be going through the same.
Christ I hope this virus hates the warm spring sun. Or maybe all the experts are wrong.
It's mainly in the northern hemisphere at the moment, so perhaps there is some hope?
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
Those infection rates look way too high for the first year. Those Brits in the ski chalet spent a whole holiday in close confinement with each other and despite multiple carriers in there, more than half of them returned home uninfected.
It’s also what has been predicted by quite a few epidemiologists. Like this guy at Harvard: 40-70%
The good news is that younger people seem more resistant and/or much more able to brush off the disease as a minor illness. When us oldies have been culled, they can move up the employment ladder, inherit our homes, rerun the EU referendum and get on happily with the rest of their lives.
My wife thinks this virus is a good thing, and it will reset the world.
I have some sympathy with her position. We have become decadent in our comfort, the identity politics wars are an example, so many people arguing about who goes into which toilet, for fucks sake. Shut up. Now we are confronted by a medieval plague. Who cares.
And the world has been tilted to the old for too long. Maybe the virus has come to help the young.
Boris did say he had a plan for solving the crisis in elderly care. No wonder he was reluctant to say any more.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
There are just over 600,000 deaths annually in the UK to put all that into perspective.
Why do you think he’d be interested in putting it into perspective?!
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
Those infection rates look way too high for the first year. Those Brits in the ski chalet spent a whole holiday in close confinement with each other and despite multiple carriers in there, more than half of them returned home uninfected.
It’s also what has been predicted by quite a few epidemiologists. Like this guy at Harvard: 40-70%
The good news is that younger people seem more resistant and/or much more able to brush off the disease as a minor illness. When us oldies have been culled, they can move up the employment ladder, inherit our homes, rerun the EU referendum and get on happily with the rest of their lives.
My wife thinks this virus is a good thing, and it will reset the world.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
You do love your extreme projections, don’t you ?
IT WON’T HAPPEN.
Happier now ?
If I were the mods I’d consider restricting his posting rights to 3-4 mentions of coronavirus a day (not dozens) and to dial back the 30 seconds to midnight panic.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
To add on top of that you've got to account for demographics and medical resources being stretched in your worst case. Wuhan had a mortality rate of 4.9%, Hubei 3.1%. Using the most generous assumptions possible, Wuhan had the jump from '0.6%' rest of China mortality to 4.9% mortality with less than 10% of the population being infected.
3.3% of China's population is in the extremely vulnerable 75+ age bracket, it's 9% for us. Being obese significantly increases your risk of pneumonia. 5-6% of China are obese, it's near enough 30% in the UK. Cardiovascular disease and diabetes were identified as the two illnesses which put coronavirus patients most at risk of dying.
Putting that all into the calculator (with Wuhan 4.9% mortality), you have 500,000 75+ yos dying, plus about 2,200,000 from the rest of the population.
The reasonable worst case assumptions are horrific. The odds of it getting there are extremely minuscule though.
We're a high tech nation, with the vast majority of the job being able to be done from home, and if China gets up and producing again quickly, personal protection will be flowing in at a rate of knots. Once you get even just 1% of the UK infected it'll be hard for the infection to spread given the panic that'll happen.
1% of the UK infected, say a 3% mortality rate gets you 20,000 UK dead, which feels like a reasonable midpoint case.
I am concerned about the apparent lack of plans to quarantine towns and cities though.
I think the arm of the state is pretty important in controlling civil emergencies.
The UK and South Korea have well organised states, that practice and rehearse such events. China gets there too but by very heavy handed and borderline inhuman methods.
Italy and Iran do not. And their domestic governments exhibit a large degree of disfunctionality.
The USA will rely very heavily on its military I think, but will end up having to subside federal healthcare measures from the healthcare budget.
All I can say is I’m glad we have Matt Hancock at the DoH and not Chris Grayling.
I think the arm of the state is pretty important in controlling civil emergencies.
The UK and South Korea have well organised states, that practice and rehearse such events. China gets there too but by very heavy handed and borderline inhuman methods.
Italy and Iran do not. And their domestic governments exhibit a large degree of disfunctionality.
The USA will rely very heavily on its military I think, but will end up having to subside federal healthcare measures from the healthcare budget.
All I can say is I’m glad we have Matt Hancock at the DoH and not Chris Grayling.
Of the options, Hunt would be the best to be in charge at a moment like this.
I think the arm of the state is pretty important in controlling civil emergencies.
The UK and South Korea have well organised states, that practice and rehearse such events. China gets there too but by very heavy handed and borderline inhuman methods.
Italy and Iran do not. And their domestic governments exhibit a large degree of disfunctionality.
The USA will rely very heavily on its military I think, but will end up having to subside federal healthcare measures from the healthcare budget.
All I can say is I’m glad we have Matt Hancock at the DoH and not Chris Grayling.
I don't think you know much about the Italian health system because your post is particularly ignorant....
So when we are all stuck alone in our homes for the next 6 months, what Netflix / Amazon Prime shows should we be watching?
Amazon offers you: The Coming Pandemic, Contagion, Virus, Pandemic, The Carrier, Outbreak: Anatomy of a Plague, The Z Virus, Extinction: Patient Zero, Fever, Containment, Wasteland, and The Dead Outside.
Dynamic alignment: I disagree with the EU here and think minimum standards and thresholds should be fine. If they get seriously reworried in future about “unforeseens” both parties should go back to the table to agree through governance Governance: I have no problem with a blockbuster deal covering all areas, providing it is fairly co-governed, so incline to the EU position in principle State Aid: no strong view. I have little sympathy with the idea of state subsidy and think it’s a bad idea. Fishing: my sympathies are far more with the UK position, and I think the EU is unreasonable (and unrealistic) in wanting to just maintain existing access
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is morebe like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
To add on top of that you've got to account for demographics and medical resources being stretched in your worst case. Wuhan had a mortality rate of 4.9%, Hubei 3.1%. Using the most generous assumptions possible, Wuhan had the jump from '0.6%' rest of China mortality to 4.9% mortality with less than 10% of the population being infected.
3.3% of China's population is in the extremely vulnerable 75+ age bracket, it's 9% for us. Being obese significantly increases your risk of pneumonia. 5-6% of China are obese, it's near enough 30% in the UK. Cardiovascular disease and diabetes were identified as the two illnesses which put coronavirus patients most at risk of dying.
Putting that all into the calculator (with Wuhan 4.9% mortality), you have 500,000 75+ yos dying, plus about 2,200,000 from the rest of the population.
The reasonable worst case assumptions are horrific. The odds of it getting there are extremely minuscule though.
We'rehina gets up and producing again quickly, personal protection will be flowing in at a rate of knots. Once you get even just 1% of the UK infected it'll be hard for the infection to spread given the panic that'll happen.
1% of the UK infected, say a 3% mortality rate gets you 20,000 UK dead, which feels like a reasonable midpoint case.
I am concerned about the apparent lack of plans to quarantine towns and cities though.
That’s a reassuring perspective. I agree with you: my worry is do we have the Chinese style determination to shut down cities and shutter schools and businesses etc.
If we won’t we can expect a higher death rate which will counter balance what we gain from being richer, more advanced.
Of course there is still the possibility this bug will melt away, like SARS
Did you miss that it probably doesn’t like warm weather? Like flu. For much of the developed world, just two months to go.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
You do love your extreme projections, don’t you ?
IT WON’T HAPPEN.
Happier now ?
I was doing some data geekery number crunching on what the Economist (note, the Economist, not the Express) expects to happen. I wasn’t using any of my assumptions, I was using theirs.
Likewise, I did not give extreme projections. I gave reasonable best case, mid range, and worst case scenarios, using the Economist numbers allied with worldometer data about mortality rate.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
You do love your extreme projections, don’t you ?
IT WON’T HAPPEN.
Happier now ?
If I were the mods I’d consider restricting his posting rights to 3-4 mentions of coronavirus a day (not dozens) and to dial back the 30 seconds to midnight panic.
No-one needs it.
I’m sorry you are easily scared by numbers. The idea we should not calmly debate the probabilities and possibilities of the biggest story in the world (politically, economically, socially) on politicalbetting.com, is asinine. What do you suggest as an alternative? Three nights of debate on care home wage structure? Again?
I think the arm of the state is pretty important in controlling civil emergencies.
The UK and South Korea have well organised states, that practice and rehearse such events. China gets there too but by very heavy handed and borderline inhuman methods.
Italy and Iran do not. And their domestic governments exhibit a large degree of disfunctionality.
The USA will rely very heavily on its military I think, but will end up having to subside federal healthcare measures from the healthcare budget.
All I can say is I’m glad we have Matt Hancock at the DoH and not Chris Grayling.
I don't think you know much about the Italian health system because your post is particularly ignorant....
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is morebe like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
To add on top of that you've got
I am concerned about the apparent lack of plans to quarantine towns and cities though.
That’s a reassuring perspective. I agree with you: my worry is do we have the Chinese style determination to shut down cities and shutter schools and businesses etc.
If we won’t we can expect a higher death rate which will counter balance what we gain from being richer, more advanced.
Of course there is still the possibility this bug will melt away, like SARS
Very likely to fade away.
What happened to the Great Plague of London, and in Eyam?
Containment works, even when disease appears rife. The key is to get the onward infection rate below one.
I think the arm of the state is pretty important in controlling civil emergencies.
The UK and South Korea have well organised states, that practice and rehearse such events. China gets there too but by very heavy handed and borderline inhuman methods.
Italy and Iran do not. And their domestic governments exhibit a large degree of disfunctionality.
The USA will rely very heavily on its military I think, but will end up having to subside federal healthcare measures from the healthcare budget.
All I can say is I’m glad we have Matt Hancock at the DoH and not Chris Grayling.
Of the options, Hunt would be the best to be in charge at a moment like this.
Agreed, but i think Hancock is at least quietly rational and logical.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is more like 40%, that’s about 260,000 UK deaths. Edging towards hellish. I can’t imagine how the NHS would deal with that. But maybe we bumble through. It would be like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
You do love your extreme projections, don’t you ?
IT WON’T HAPPEN.
Happier now ?
If I were the mods I’d consider restricting his posting rights to 3-4 mentions of coronavirus a day (not dozens) and to dial back the 30 seconds to midnight panic.
No-one needs it.
I’m sorry you are easily scared by numbers. The idea we should not calmly debate the probabilities and possibilities of the biggest story in the world (politically, economically, socially) on politicalbetting.com, is asinine. What do you suggest as an alternative? Three nights of debate on care home wage structure? Again?
As some of you know, my only claim to have been on the right side of this was advice to a friend in December to get the f-ck out of his stock market exposure. Had a hunch everything was in a bubble, especially his Tesla-heavy portfolio. I did mention the virus as one of the possible scenarios to prick the over-priced shares but didn't think we'd be quite heading for the current correction. It's been a very rough week on the exchanges. Tesla looks really vulnerable right now. Edit: down 25% in 5 days. Ouch.
I think the arm of the state is pretty important in controlling civil emergencies.
The UK and South Korea have well organised states, that practice and rehearse such events. China gets there too but by very heavy handed and borderline inhuman methods.
Italy and Iran do not. And their domestic governments exhibit a large degree of disfunctionality.
The USA will rely very heavily on its military I think, but will end up having to subside federal healthcare measures from the healthcare budget.
All I can say is I’m glad we have Matt Hancock at the DoH and not Chris Grayling.
I don't think you know much about the Italian health system because your post is particularly ignorant....
Ok, put me right then.
Where have I got it wrong?
I think your sweeping statement that Italy does not have an organised state is perhaps one of the most laugh out loud and ignorant posts I have read..not just here, but on any site...do you want me to continue??
So I guess what I'm adding to here is that for all the arguments about the human tragedy, the economic impact is going to be almost catastrophic. A global recession is a real likelihood if this doesn't end soon.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If thentense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is morebe like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
the jump from '0.6%' rest of China mortality to 4.9% mortality with less than 10% of the population being infected.
3.3% of China's population is in the extremely vulnerable 75+ age bracket, it's 9% for us. Being obese significantly increases your risk of pneumonia. 5-6% of China are obese, it's near enough 30% in the UK. Cardiovascular disease and diabetes were identified as the two illnesses which put coronavirus patients most at risk of dying.
Putting that all into the calculator (with Wuhan 4.9% mortality), you have 500,000 75+ yos dying, plus about 2,200,000 from the rest of the population.
The reasonable worst case assumptions are horrific. The odds of it getting there are extremely minuscule though.
We'rehina gets up and producing again quickly, personal protection will be flowing in at a rate of knots. Once you get even just 1% of the UK infected it'll be hard for the infection to spread given the panic that'll happen.
1% of the UK infected, say a 3% mortality rate gets you 20,000 UK dead, which feels like a reasonable midpoint case.
I am concerned about the apparent lack of plans to quarantine towns and cities though.
That’s a reassuring perspective. I agree with you: my worry is do we have the Chinese style determination to shut down cities and shutter schools and businesses etc.
If we won’t we can expect a higher death rate which will counter balance what we gain from being richer, more advanced.
Of course there is still the possibility this bug will melt away, like SARS
Did you miss that it probably doesn’t like warm weather? Like flu. For much of the developed world, just two months to go.
Did you read the article? It as good as says that the virus likely doesn’t like warm weather. It simply concludes that this won’t be the end of the matter.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is morebe like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
To add on top of that you've got
I am concerned about the apparent lack of plans to quarantine towns and cities though.
That’s a reassuring perspective. I agree with you: my worry is do we have the Chinese style determination to shut down cities and shutter schools and businesses etc.
If we won’t we can expect a higher death rate which will counter balance what we gain from being richer, more advanced.
Of course there is still the possibility this bug will melt away, like SARS
Very likely to fade away.
What happened to the Great Plague of London, and in Eyam?
Containment works, even when disease appears rife. The key is to get the onward infection rate below one.
I mean the great plague of London did kill about 25% of London's population...
But yeah, I agree with your wider point. The moment this starts to become widespread in the UK we'll see people take drastic measures to reduce exposure.
I think the arm of the state is pretty important in controlling civil emergencies.
The UK and South Korea have well organised states, that practice and rehearse such events. China gets there too but by very heavy handed and borderline inhuman methods.
Italy and Iran do not. And their domestic governments exhibit a large degree of disfunctionality.
The USA will rely very heavily on its military I think, but will end up having to subside federal healthcare measures from the healthcare budget.
All I can say is I’m glad we have Matt Hancock at the DoH and not Chris Grayling.
I don't think you know much about the Italian health system because your post is particularly ignorant....
Ok, put me right then.
Where have I got it wrong?
Italy may have dysfunctional politics, but it has strong pockets of decent administration. The few times I encountered their health system, it seemed like a good one, and I think these international 'make a few things' tables often puts it behind only France in terms of quality of care. I got a TB booster due to contact tracing from a flatmate of my flatmate's girlfriend who had brought it in from Africa. She lived in a completely different city to me. The USSL (essentially primary care clinic) system did seem very slick.
These guys make the choice of Mike Pence to lead the US pandemic response look like the ultimate in rationalism:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/iran-cannot-handle-coronavirus/607150/ Harirchi stated that the government refuses to impose quarantines, because they are premodern and ineffective. Mohammad Saeedi, the head of the shrine in Qom and a local representative of the country’s supreme leader, not only opposes a quarantine but begged people to visit the shrine, calling it a “place of healing.”...
I think the arm of the state is pretty important in controlling civil emergencies.
The UK and South Korea have well organised states, that practice and rehearse such events. China gets there too but by very heavy handed and borderline inhuman methods.
Italy and Iran do not. And their domestic governments exhibit a large degree of disfunctionality.
The USA will rely very heavily on its military I think, but will end up having to subside federal healthcare measures from the healthcare budget.
All I can say is I’m glad we have Matt Hancock at the DoH and not Chris Grayling.
I don't think you know much about the Italian health system because your post is particularly ignorant....
Ok, put me right then.
Where have I got it wrong?
I think your sweeping statement that Italy does not have an organised state is perhaps one of the most laugh out loud and ignorant posts I have read..not just here, but on any site...do you want me to continue??
Yes, I would like you to provide some evidence rather than a visceral reaction.
Italy has an unstable government of mixed competence and has had great difficulty in containing this outbreak, which raises serious questions over its state apparatus.
If you’d like to prove me wrong on that I’d be interested in hearing your reasoning.
The Economist expects 25% to 70% of people to catch it, in an infected country, within 12 months of the first outbreak.
That’s a wide spread but let’s crunch the numbers at either end.
If the mortality rate is like China ex-Hubei (if we trust that data) that’s a rate of 0.6% And if the infection rate is just 25% that’s about 95,000 UK deaths. Really quite unpleasant, but not apocalyptic. The NHS should stagger through. But this requires intense and draconian quarantine, like China. That’s best case scenario, according to The Economist.
If the mortality rate is in the officially anticipated 1% range, and the infection rate is morebe like wartime for sure. That’s the mid range forecast.
If the mortality rate is the Wuhan rate of 4%, and the infection rate is 70% (ie the reasonable worst case scenariio) that is 2 MILLION deaths. In one year. Society could, maybe would, break down.
To add on top of that you've got
I am concerned about the apparent lack of plans to quarantine towns and cities though.
That’s a reassuring perspective. I agree with you: my worry is do we have the Chinese style determination to shut down cities and shutter schools and businesses etc.
If we won’t we can expect a higher death rate which will counter balance what we gain from being richer, more advanced.
Of course there is still the possibility this bug will melt away, like SARS
Very likely to fade away.
What happened to the Great Plague of London, and in Eyam?
Containment works, even when disease appears rife. The key is to get the onward infection rate below one.
As the link I just posted suggests, the society this is most likely to break is perhaps Iran.
Surely not. Donald reassured everyone just yesterday...
One of the most satisfying results of the Virus is seeing all those NHS Consultants who have become preoccupied of late with obsessively monitoring their huge pension funds..now seeing those funds getting decimated...
Yes, I missed out on a slice of profit today by closing some positions too early. At tea time it looked like a wise move, but the markets really tanked towards close and the post-market trading suggests tomorrow won’t be a happy day either. I have added slightly to my sell positions overnight and we’ll see what tomorrow brings....
"Federal health employees interacted with Americans quarantined for possible exposure to the coronavirus without proper medical training or protective gear, then scattered into the general population, according to a government whistle-blower,” the New York Times reports.
“Without proper training or equipment, some of the exposed staff members moved freely around and off the bases, with at least one person staying in a nearby hotel and leaving California on a commercial flight. Many were unaware of the need to test their temperature three times a day.”
Washington Post: “The whistleblower is seeking federal protection because she alleges she was unfairly and improperly reassigned after raising concerns about the safety of these workers to HHS officials, including those within the office of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar.”
These guys make the choice of Mike Pence to lead the US pandemic response look like the ultimate in rationalism:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/iran-cannot-handle-coronavirus/607150/ Harirchi stated that the government refuses to impose quarantines, because they are premodern and ineffective. Mohammad Saeedi, the head of the shrine in Qom and a local representative of the country’s supreme leader, not only opposes a quarantine but begged people to visit the shrine, calling it a “place of healing.”...
Our own Government supposedly takes the same view.
Once the virus is more established in the country, the general policy would be that schools should not close – unless there are specific local business continuity reasons (staff shortages or particularly vulnerable children).
There are no plans to attempt to close borders in the event of an influenza pandemic. The UK generally has a high level of international connectivity, and so is likely to be one of the earlier countries to receive infectious individuals. Modelling suggests that imposing a 90% restriction on all air travel to the UK at the point a pandemic emerges would only delay the peak of a pandemic wave by one to two weeks.
There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
Surely not. Donald reassured everyone just yesterday...
One of the most satisfying results of the Virus is seeing all those NHS Consultants who have become preoccupied of late with obsessively monitoring their huge pension funds..now seeing those funds getting decimated...
Nah, mine is in cash.
I wasn't kidding about extra life insurance the other day. Actuaries haven't caught up yet!
Yes, I missed out on a slice of profit today by closing some positions too early. At tea time it looked like a wise move, but the markets really tanked towards close and the post-market trading suggests tomorrow won’t be a happy day either. I have added slightly to my sell positions overnight and we’ll see what tomorrow brings....
Yes I'd like to come back in. Just a question of when. If things pan out as Eadric suggests then we could be a long way from the bottom.
I am concerned about the apparent lack of plans to quarantine towns and cities though.
Must be odds on to break out in London first with all the public transport used there ?
Whose up for London being the modern-day Eyam?
If there's one thing I wouldn't want to be in charge of, it's contact tracing a tube carriage or 10. Once 100 people in London have it, the entire south will have it in a week.
I think the arm of the state is pretty important in controlling civil emergencies.
The UK and South Korea have well organised states, that practice and rehearse such events. China gets there too but by very heavy handed and borderline inhuman methods.
Italy and Iran do not. And their domestic governments exhibit a large degree of disfunctionality.
The USA will rely very heavily on its military I think, but will end up having to subside federal healthcare measures from the healthcare budget.
All I can say is I’m glad we have Matt Hancock at the DoH and not Chris Grayling.
I don't think you know much about the Italian health system because your post is particularly ignorant....
Ok, put me right then.
Where have I got it wrong?
I think your sweeping statement that Italy does not have an organised state is perhaps one of the most laugh out loud and ignorant posts I have read..not just here, but on any site...do you want me to continue??
Yes, I would like you to provide some evidence rather than a visceral reaction.
Italy has an unstable government of mixed competence and has had great difficulty in containing this outbreak, which raises serious questions over its state apparatus.
If you’d like to prove me wrong on that I’d be interested in hearing your reasoning.</blockquote
You are a bit like John Cleese in Life of Brian....
The Italian Health System is probably the best in the world.....
Your ignorance and prejudice is really quite shocking
Yes, I missed out on a slice of profit today by closing some positions too early. At tea time it looked like a wise move, but the markets really tanked towards close and the post-market trading suggests tomorrow won’t be a happy day either. I have added slightly to my sell positions overnight and we’ll see what tomorrow brings....
Yes I'd like to come back in. Just a question of when. If things pan out as Eadric suggests then we could be a long way from the bottom.
My default case is that this slide will be relatively short lived, but there won’t be a bounce back - either a flat spring or a modest recovery as the virus fades in the sun. Then a torrid autumn when we really do test new lows.
For the Dow I am sticking by the figure of 24,000-ish for the short term low that I offered up on Tuesday, reflecting the level it held for 2016-17.
These guys make the choice of Mike Pence to lead the US pandemic response look like the ultimate in rationalism:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/iran-cannot-handle-coronavirus/607150/ Harirchi stated that the government refuses to impose quarantines, because they are premodern and ineffective. Mohammad Saeedi, the head of the shrine in Qom and a local representative of the country’s supreme leader, not only opposes a quarantine but begged people to visit the shrine, calling it a “place of healing.”...
"Then he proceeded to tell me of the mischievous consequences which attended the presumption of the Turks and Mahometans in Asia and in other places where he had been (for my brother, being a merchant, was a few years before, as I have already observed, returned from abroad, coming last from Lisbon), and how, presuming upon their professed predestinating notions, and of every man's end being predetermined and unalterably beforehand decreed, they would go unconcerned into infected places and converse with infected persons, by which means they died at the rate of ten or fifteen thousand a week, whereas the Europeans or Christian merchants, who kept themselves retired and reserved, generally escaped the contagion."
Yes, I missed out on a slice of profit today by closing some positions too early. At tea time it looked like a wise move, but the markets really tanked towards close and the post-market trading suggests tomorrow won’t be a happy day either. I have added slightly to my sell positions overnight and we’ll see what tomorrow brings....
Yes I'd like to come back in. Just a question of when. If things pan out as Eadric suggests then we could be a long way from the bottom.
There will be a community level outbreak in the UK, there is already some in the US (although they're too lazy to actually declare it), and it's next to being confirmed in France (20 near Paris) and Germany (14 in NRW). All of those are almost certainly going to happen, and almost certainly cause a new low. Then is it time for France and Italy to register negative growth in 20Q1, which would put them officially into recession, which will also not help the market. Given Germany's exposure to China they'll record an awful quarter as well. I can't see where the bounce is coming from.
I think the arm of the state is pretty important in controlling civil emergencies.
The UK and South Korea have well organised states, that practice and rehearse such events. China gets there too but by very heavy handed and borderline inhuman methods.
Italy and Iran do not. And their domestic governments exhibit a large degree of disfunctionality.
The USA will rely very heavily on its military I think, but will end up having to subside federal healthcare measures from the healthcare budget.
All I can say is I’m glad we have Matt Hancock at the DoH and not Chris Grayling.
I don't think you know much about the Italian health system because your post is particularly ignorant....
Ok, put me right then.
Where have I got it wrong?
Italy may have dysfunctional politics, but it has strong pockets of decent administration. The few times I encountered their health system, it seemed like a good one, and I think these international 'make a few things' tables often puts it behind only France in terms of quality of care. I got a TB booster due to contact tracing from a flatmate of my flatmate's girlfriend who had brought it in from Africa. She lived in a completely different city to me. The USSL (essentially primary care clinic) system did seem very slick.
Fair point, so perhaps the issue is in the state level coordination of its local, regional and national administrations? As this NYT article suggests:
I think the arm of the state is pretty important in controlling civil emergencies.
The UK and South Korea have well organised states, that practice and rehearse such events. China gets there too but by very heavy handed and borderline inhuman methods.
Italy and Iran do not. And their domestic governments exhibit a large degree of disfunctionality.
The USA will rely very heavily on its military I think, but will end up having to subside federal healthcare measures from the healthcare budget.
All I can say is I’m glad we have Matt Hancock at the DoH and not Chris Grayling.
I don't think you know much about the Italian health system because your post is particularly ignorant....
Ok, put me right then.
Where have I got it wrong?
I think your sweeping statement that Italy does not have an organised state is perhaps one of the most laugh out loud and ignorant posts I have read..not just here, but on any site...do you want me to continue??
Yes, I would like you to provide some evidence rather than a visceral reaction.
Italy has an unstable government of mixed competence and has had great difficulty in containing this outbreak, which raises serious questions over its state apparatus.
If you’d like to prove me wrong on that I’d be interested in hearing your reasoning.
So, just a bit of ad hominem then. Not an argument.
If you re-read my original post you’ll see I commented on their domestic government and ability of the state to coordinate civil emergencies, not the skill of their health service.
Given Trump's twitter history, it is impossible these days to know the true from the fake. It is totally believable he would have tweeted such a thing.
Surely not. Donald reassured everyone just yesterday...
One of the most satisfying results of the Virus is seeing all those NHS Consultants who have become preoccupied of late with obsessively monitoring their huge pension funds..now seeing those funds getting decimated...
Nah, mine is in cash.
I wasn't kidding about extra life insurance the other day. Actuaries haven't caught up yet!
We've been hit by well over 100k this week on our investments...probably a lot more capital loss if house prices start tumbling which they will do....
That said...I'm not about to sell the Big Issue just yet....
I am concerned about the apparent lack of plans to quarantine towns and cities though.
Must be odds on to break out in London first with all the public transport used there ?
Whose up for London being the modern-day Eyam?
If there's one thing I wouldn't want to be in charge of, it's contact tracing a tube carriage or 10. Once 100 people in London have it, the entire south will have it in a week.
Surely, once an epidemic is established, we give up tracing contacts? We don’t trace contacts for normal flu. And this is just normal flu with added devilment. The Satan Bug
Given Trump's twitter history, it is impossible these days to know the true from the fake. It is totally believable he would have tweeted such a thing.
Some of the stupidest shit I have ever heard has come from Trump's mouth. I genuinely do not personally know anybody as dumb as Trump.
I am concerned about the apparent lack of plans to quarantine towns and cities though.
Must be odds on to break out in London first with all the public transport used there ?
Whose up for London being the modern-day Eyam?
If there's one thing I wouldn't want to be in charge of, it's contact tracing a tube carriage or 10. Once 100 people in London have it, the entire south will have it in a week.
Surely, once an epidemic is established, we give up tracing contacts? We don’t trace contacts for normal flu. And this is just normal flu with added devilment. The Satan Bug
I took my girlfriend to Eyam once as a Valentines weekend treat. Nice inn, log fire, walks etc.
She still goes on about the Valentine's when I took her to a plague village.
Yes, I missed out on a slice of profit today by closing some positions too early. At tea time it looked like a wise move, but the markets really tanked towards close and the post-market trading suggests tomorrow won’t be a happy day either. I have added slightly to my sell positions overnight and we’ll see what tomorrow brings....
Yes I'd like to come back in. Just a question of when. If things pan out as Eadric suggests then we could be a long way from the bottom.
My default case is that this slide will be relatively short lived, but there won’t be a bounce back - either a flat spring or a modest recovery as the virus fades in the sun. Then a torrid autumn when we really do test new lows.
For the Dow I am sticking by the figure of 24,000-ish for the short term low that I offered up on Tuesday, reflecting the level it held for 2016-17.
I'd like to think that was right, but I think it highly optimistic. 20,000 in the next fortnight looks on the cards to me.
Comments
As I understand it, vaccines work by giving a very small does of a weekend virus to a person so that the persons immune system gets used to fighting that virus, as a result when the person is attacked by the real virus the immune system has a head start.
The same principal as not been able to get chicken-pocks or other viruses twice, the immune system has 'learnt' how to fight them'
If that understanding is correct, but for this virus you can catch it twice, does that mean that a vaccine will not be possible or at least will be a lot harder?
Don't what to start any panic, just asking.
Perhaps this strain has two slightly different versions?
OK that would make sense, if that is the case then we would need lots of vaccines for all the different virii/viruses, which sounds hard, but not impossible
I've read very little (nothing) about the test. What % are false negatives, false positives etc. How does the test work?
https://twitter.com/WilliamYang120/status/1232645759645995009
IT WON’T HAPPEN.
Happier now ?
No-one needs it.
Sanders might boom due to virus - which could expose American healthcare problems, and then beat Trump.
And Trump and Sanders could both conceivably succumb to virus.
So many scenarios.
3.3% of China's population is in the extremely vulnerable 75+ age bracket, it's 9% for us. Being obese significantly increases your risk of pneumonia. 5-6% of China are obese, it's near enough 30% in the UK. Cardiovascular disease and diabetes were identified as the two illnesses which put coronavirus patients most at risk of dying.
Putting that all into the calculator (with Wuhan 4.9% mortality), you have 500,000 75+ yos dying, plus about 2,200,000 from the rest of the population.
The reasonable worst case assumptions are horrific. The odds of it getting there are extremely minuscule though.
We're a high tech nation, with the vast majority of the job being able to be done from home, and if China gets up and producing again quickly, personal protection will be flowing in at a rate of knots. Once you get even just 1% of the UK infected it'll be hard for the infection to spread given the panic that'll happen.
1% of the UK infected, say a 3% mortality rate gets you 20,000 UK dead, which feels like a reasonable midpoint case.
I am concerned about the apparent lack of plans to quarantine towns and cities though.
The UK and South Korea have well organised states, that practice and rehearse such events. China gets there too but by very heavy handed and borderline inhuman methods.
Italy and Iran do not. And their domestic governments exhibit a large degree of disfunctionality.
The USA will rely very heavily on its military I think, but will end up having to subside federal healthcare measures from the healthcare budget.
All I can say is I’m glad we have Matt Hancock at the DoH and not Chris Grayling.
Perfect viewing to take your mind off things.
Dynamic alignment: I disagree with the EU here and think minimum standards and thresholds should be fine. If they get seriously reworried in future about “unforeseens” both parties should go back to the table to agree through governance
Governance: I have no problem with a blockbuster deal covering all areas, providing it is fairly co-governed, so incline to the EU position in principle
State Aid: no strong view. I have little sympathy with the idea of state subsidy and think it’s a bad idea.
Fishing: my sympathies are far more with the UK position, and I think the EU is unreasonable (and unrealistic) in wanting to just maintain existing access
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51650961
The Brexiteer nonsense was my polemical self.....
The NHS will shortly have to make these kind of choices....if they are inundated with critically ill patients they have to prioritise the young....
I leave my epidemic number crunching to the epidemiologists.
Like, what the site’s for??
Where have I got it wrong?
What happened to the Great Plague of London, and in Eyam?
Containment works, even when disease appears rife. The key is to get the onward infection rate below one.
We could do much worse.
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1233138682196119553?s=21
Gobsmacking stuff.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-stock-markets-taken-sick-again-on-speed-of-spread-11944193
Anyone seen four horsemen?
We are probably facing the biggest single crisis in the NHS...times a lot......
https://www.parliament.uk/about/faqs/house-of-lords-faqs/lords-members/
So the real crisis comes next winter.
But yeah, I agree with your wider point. The moment this starts to become widespread in the UK we'll see people take drastic measures to reduce exposure.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/02/iran-cannot-handle-coronavirus/607150/
Harirchi stated that the government refuses to impose quarantines, because they are premodern and ineffective. Mohammad Saeedi, the head of the shrine in Qom and a local representative of the country’s supreme leader, not only opposes a quarantine but begged people to visit the shrine, calling it a “place of healing.”...
Italy has an unstable government of mixed competence and has had great difficulty in containing this outbreak, which raises serious questions over its state apparatus.
If you’d like to prove me wrong on that I’d be interested in hearing your reasoning.
One of the most satisfying results of the Virus is seeing all those NHS Consultants who have become preoccupied of late with obsessively monitoring their huge pension funds..now seeing those funds getting decimated...
“Without proper training or equipment, some of the exposed staff members moved freely around and off the bases, with at least one person staying in a nearby hotel and leaving California on a commercial flight. Many were unaware of the need to test their temperature three times a day.”
Washington Post: “The whistleblower is seeking federal protection because she alleges she was unfairly and improperly reassigned after raising concerns about the safety of these workers to HHS officials, including those within the office of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar.”
Once the virus is more established in the country, the general policy would be that schools should not close – unless there are specific local business continuity reasons (staff shortages or particularly vulnerable children).
There are no plans to attempt to close borders in the event of an influenza pandemic. The UK generally has a high level of international connectivity, and so is likely to be one of the earlier countries to receive infectious individuals. Modelling suggests that imposing a 90% restriction on all air travel to the UK at the point a pandemic emerges would only delay the peak of a pandemic wave by one to two weeks.
There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/feb/27/what-are-the-uks-plans-for-dealing-with-a-pandemic-virus
I wasn't kidding about extra life insurance the other day. Actuaries haven't caught up yet!
For the Dow I am sticking by the figure of 24,000-ish for the short term low that I offered up on Tuesday, reflecting the level it held for 2016-17.
Defoe, Journal of the Plague Year.
Plus ca change...
We may need his expertise.
https://twitter.com/rumanaalvi1/status/1233067561425817603?s=19
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/world/europe/italy-coronavirus.amp.html
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2018/feb/06/tweets/fake-trump-tweet-about-dow-joans-dropping-called-t/
If you re-read my original post you’ll see I commented on their domestic government and ability of the state to coordinate civil emergencies, not the skill of their health service.
Can only presume you’ve hit the sauce again.
That said...I'm not about to sell the Big Issue just yet....
And this one’s real:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/949242950659313669
She still goes on about the Valentine's when I took her to a plague village.