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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the South Carolina betting Bernie moves from a 57.5% chance

SystemSystem Posts: 11,005
edited February 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In the South Carolina betting Bernie moves from a 57.5% chance to a 14% one in less than 5 days

With the South Carolina primary taking place on Saturday there have been three new polls today all of them showing ex-VP Joe Biden with a clear lead. One poll has him 20% ahead of Bernie Sanders, another one 16% while a final one has the gap just at 4%

Read the full story here


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  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,274
    First
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,817
    2nd
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,215
    Third like Eadric
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    I now wonder if Biden is slightly overcooked but I’m not sure I want to lay him just yet.

    Super Tuesday will really shake out his odds and Bloomberg’s still further.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    Biden come back time?

    Dems finally getting a grip of the need to beat Trump, not live in Sander's Narnia?

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1233107182280945666
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,200
    edited February 2020
    Previous thread.

    Turkey is using the refugee threat to bring the European members of NATO into backing it in its confrontation in Syria. This refugee threat has turned up again hours after an airstrike killed about 20 Turkish troops in Idlib in Syria. Erdogan is due to address the nation at 1.30am local time apparently.

    Turkey is threatening all kinds of retaliation but it wants NATO cover at least politically. Its been asking for such support for weeks now but this heavy death toll in a single incident is going to make those calls louder. Its also going to put Turkey on the spot to put up or shut up and its equally as possible they will wimp out by throwing up some artillery for a bit rather than retaliate heavily and to effect.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/WilliamsJon/status/1233107182280945666

    Let's hope they didn't take the train....
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    Casino_Royale said:

    I now wonder if Biden is slightly overcooked but I’m not sure I want to lay him just yet.

    Super Tuesday will really shake out his odds and Bloomberg’s still further.

    Just topped up on Biden as next POTUS.

    Virus news sweeps across US in next few days, stocks crashing etc etc.

    A nation turns its lonely eyes to sense and security and Biden?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    eadric said:

    Relatedly

    https://twitter.com/joserios3/status/1233162223561904128?s=21

    Assuming he gets there in one piece Bernie at just under 4/1 for next president is still good value over on Exchange.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,274
    This is going to win it for the Dems

    https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1233131148340940800
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,095
    Yokes said:

    Previous thread.

    Turkey is using the refugee threat to bring the European members of NATO into backing it in its confrontation in Syria. This refugee threat has turned up again hours after an airstrike killed about 20 Turkish troops in Idlib in Syria. Erdogan is due to address the nation at 1.30am local time apparently.

    Turkey is threatening all kinds of retaliation but it wants NATO cover at least politically. Its been asking for such support for weeks now but this heavy death toll in a single incident is going to make those calls louder. Its also going to put Turkey on the spot to put up or shut up and its equally as possible they will wimp out by throwing up some artillery for a bit rather than retaliate heavily and to effect.

    If NATO says "nah, mate..." - what strain does that put on Turkey to chuck it in?
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,302
    Yokes said:

    Previous thread.

    Turkey is using the refugee threat to bring the European members of NATO into backing it in its confrontation in Syria. This refugee threat has turned up again hours after an airstrike killed about 20 Turkish troops in Idlib in Syria. Erdogan is due to address the nation at 1.30am local time apparently.

    Turkey is threatening all kinds of retaliation but it wants NATO cover at least politically. Its been asking for such support for weeks now but this heavy death toll in a single incident is going to make those calls louder. Its also going to put Turkey on the spot to put up or shut up and its equally as possible they will wimp out by throwing up some artillery for a bit rather than retaliate heavily and to effect.

    Not sure what Turkey expects. It has soldiers in another country uninvited. How are they anything except legitimate military targets?
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,200
    Sanders victory in the primary isn't just a problem in that he may prove unable to build a voter coalition wide enough but its also more likely to bring in Bloomberg as a 3rd party runner.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    rottenborough said:

    Biden come back time?

    Dems finally getting a grip of the need to beat Trump, not live in Sander's Narnia?

    My problem with this is that I’ve still yet to see Biden impress in a real vote, rather than just a poll.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I now wonder if Biden is slightly overcooked but I’m not sure I want to lay him just yet.

    Super Tuesday will really shake out his odds and Bloomberg’s still further.

    Just topped up on Biden as next POTUS.

    Virus news sweeps across US in next few days, stocks crashing etc etc.

    A nation turns its lonely eyes to sense and security and Biden?
    Fair enough. Not topping up on him at current prices but you could be right.

    South Carolina will be interesting.
  • Options
    JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    He’s been Biden his time.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    Jonathan said:

    He’s been Biden his time.

    Mate, I’ve done that joke more often than @eadric has posted about coronavirus.

    Are you here all week?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    Casino_Royale said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I now wonder if Biden is slightly overcooked but I’m not sure I want to lay him just yet.

    Super Tuesday will really shake out his odds and Bloomberg’s still further.

    Just topped up on Biden as next POTUS.

    Virus news sweeps across US in next few days, stocks crashing etc etc.

    A nation turns its lonely eyes to sense and security and Biden?
    Fair enough. Not topping up on him at current prices but you could be right.

    South Carolina will be interesting.
    He has to win that, big time. That might unlock the South.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Yokes said:

    Sanders victory in the primary isn't just a problem in that he may prove unable to build a voter coalition wide enough but its also more likely to bring in Bloomberg as a 3rd party runner.

    If there is a 3rd party run, I would have thought that it might be Mitt Romney. but who knows? Bloomberg with Romney and his VP?
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,200
    MarqueeMark said:

    Yokes said:

    Previous thread.

    Turkey is using the refugee threat to bring the European members of NATO into backing it in its confrontation in Syria. This refugee threat has turned up again hours after an airstrike killed about 20 Turkish troops in Idlib in Syria. Erdogan is due to address the nation at 1.30am local time apparently.

    Turkey is threatening all kinds of retaliation but it wants NATO cover at least politically. Its been asking for such support for weeks now but this heavy death toll in a single incident is going to make those calls louder. Its also going to put Turkey on the spot to put up or shut up and its equally as possible they will wimp out by throwing up some artillery for a bit rather than retaliate heavily and to effect.

    If NATO says "nah, mate..." - what strain does that put on Turkey to chuck it in?
    My gut is they will set off some fireworks but wont go anywhere near all in. In recent weeks they have been accelerating their actions but largely doing things by proxy, supplying armoured kit to their erstwhile militia allies and engaging in artillery duels with the Syrians at a local level. Yet, despite the fact its right on their doorstep their airforce has been absent. They are more than able in size to apply some serious scale of effort, though their quality is best described as variable.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    1929?

    https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1233113404400754689
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    He’s been Biden his time.

    Mate, I’ve done that joke more often than @eadric has posted about coronavirus.

    Are you here all week?
    I’ve been Biden my time.
    Lol!
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I now wonder if Biden is slightly overcooked but I’m not sure I want to lay him just yet.

    Super Tuesday will really shake out his odds and Bloomberg’s still further.

    Just topped up on Biden as next POTUS.

    Virus news sweeps across US in next few days, stocks crashing etc etc.

    A nation turns its lonely eyes to sense and security and Biden?
    Fair enough. Not topping up on him at current prices but you could be right.

    South Carolina will be interesting.
    He has to win that, big time. That might unlock the South.
    My current thinking is that he wins but not quite enough to radically change the narrative.

    I expect him to undershoot his best polling.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    BigRich said:

    Yokes said:

    Sanders victory in the primary isn't just a problem in that he may prove unable to build a voter coalition wide enough but its also more likely to bring in Bloomberg as a 3rd party runner.

    If there is a 3rd party run, I would have thought that it might be Mitt Romney. but who knows? Bloomberg with Romney and his VP?
    Possible.

    But I think Romney is biding his time. Setting himself up to rescue the GOP from the car crash of the second term of Trump.

    Haley vs Romney GOP primary 2024?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,494
    Casino_Royale said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I now wonder if Biden is slightly overcooked but I’m not sure I want to lay him just yet.

    Super Tuesday will really shake out his odds and Bloomberg’s still further.

    Just topped up on Biden as next POTUS.

    Virus news sweeps across US in next few days, stocks crashing etc etc.

    A nation turns its lonely eyes to sense and security and Biden?
    Fair enough. Not topping up on him at current prices but you could be right.

    South Carolina will be interesting.
    He has to win that, big time. That might unlock the South.
    My current thinking is that he wins but not quite enough to radically change the narrative.

    I expect him to undershoot his best polling.
    Me too. Sanders will be on his tail, and ahead on delagates. The Super Tuesday States look good for Bernie.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    Plaid gain in Wrexham.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,200
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Yokes said:

    Previous thread.

    Turkey is using the refugee threat to bring the European members of NATO into backing it in its confrontation in Syria. This refugee threat has turned up again hours after an airstrike killed about 20 Turkish troops in Idlib in Syria. Erdogan is due to address the nation at 1.30am local time apparently.

    Turkey is threatening all kinds of retaliation but it wants NATO cover at least politically. Its been asking for such support for weeks now but this heavy death toll in a single incident is going to make those calls louder. Its also going to put Turkey on the spot to put up or shut up and its equally as possible they will wimp out by throwing up some artillery for a bit rather than retaliate heavily and to effect.

    Not sure what Turkey expects. It has soldiers in another country uninvited. How are they anything except legitimate military targets?
    Uninvited? You do know they reached an agreement some time ago for Turkish military posts to be in border areas in Syria?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I now wonder if Biden is slightly overcooked but I’m not sure I want to lay him just yet.

    Super Tuesday will really shake out his odds and Bloomberg’s still further.

    Just topped up on Biden as next POTUS.

    Virus news sweeps across US in next few days, stocks crashing etc etc.

    A nation turns its lonely eyes to sense and security and Biden?
    Fair enough. Not topping up on him at current prices but you could be right.

    South Carolina will be interesting.
    He has to win that, big time. That might unlock the South.
    My current thinking is that he wins but not quite enough to radically change the narrative.

    I expect him to undershoot his best polling.
    Me too. Sanders will be on his tail, and ahead on delagates. The Super Tuesday States look good for Bernie.
    A contested convention needs to stop him then. Dem delegates would be mad to let him lead the ticket if he can't get the majority of delegates.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    slade said:

    Plaid gain in Wrexham.

    Astonishing result. Plaid have never been close before,
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,494
    Yokes said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Yokes said:

    Previous thread.

    Turkey is using the refugee threat to bring the European members of NATO into backing it in its confrontation in Syria. This refugee threat has turned up again hours after an airstrike killed about 20 Turkish troops in Idlib in Syria. Erdogan is due to address the nation at 1.30am local time apparently.

    Turkey is threatening all kinds of retaliation but it wants NATO cover at least politically. Its been asking for such support for weeks now but this heavy death toll in a single incident is going to make those calls louder. Its also going to put Turkey on the spot to put up or shut up and its equally as possible they will wimp out by throwing up some artillery for a bit rather than retaliate heavily and to effect.

    Not sure what Turkey expects. It has soldiers in another country uninvited. How are they anything except legitimate military targets?
    Uninvited? You do know they reached an agreement some time ago for Turkish military posts to be in border areas in Syria?
    Assad has won. Everyone needs to recognise that.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    Con hold in Hillingdon and Lab hold in Blaby.
  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,200
    BigRich said:

    Yokes said:

    Sanders victory in the primary isn't just a problem in that he may prove unable to build a voter coalition wide enough but its also more likely to bring in Bloomberg as a 3rd party runner.

    If there is a 3rd party run, I would have thought that it might be Mitt Romney. but who knows? Bloomberg with Romney and his VP?
    Romney would do himself damage with the GOP in the future to run now so it would be a immense, risk. There has always been an anti Trump movement within the GOP. One group tried to get James Mattis to run in 2016 but he turned it down. They ended up with Evan McMullin as their spoiler..... .

    No doubt someone, whether on the Democratic ticket, a GOP rebellion ticket or even a Bloomberg 3rd party ticket should it come about will have knocked on Mattis' door.



  • Options
    YokesYokes Posts: 1,200
    Foxy said:

    Yokes said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Yokes said:

    Previous thread.

    Turkey is using the refugee threat to bring the European members of NATO into backing it in its confrontation in Syria. This refugee threat has turned up again hours after an airstrike killed about 20 Turkish troops in Idlib in Syria. Erdogan is due to address the nation at 1.30am local time apparently.

    Turkey is threatening all kinds of retaliation but it wants NATO cover at least politically. Its been asking for such support for weeks now but this heavy death toll in a single incident is going to make those calls louder. Its also going to put Turkey on the spot to put up or shut up and its equally as possible they will wimp out by throwing up some artillery for a bit rather than retaliate heavily and to effect.

    Not sure what Turkey expects. It has soldiers in another country uninvited. How are they anything except legitimate military targets?
    Uninvited? You do know they reached an agreement some time ago for Turkish military posts to be in border areas in Syria?
    Assad has won. Everyone needs to recognise that.
    He has won the territory assuming no major third party intervention but the insurgency isnt going away.
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    Rumours that Lab might be in trouble in Manchester!
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    slade said:

    Rumours that Lab might be in trouble in Manchester!

    Sorry if this is a stupid question, but for what? a local government by-election?
  • Options
    Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Yokes said:

    Previous thread.

    Turkey is using the refugee threat to bring the European members of NATO into backing it in its confrontation in Syria. This refugee threat has turned up again hours after an airstrike killed about 20 Turkish troops in Idlib in Syria. Erdogan is due to address the nation at 1.30am local time apparently.

    Turkey is threatening all kinds of retaliation but it wants NATO cover at least politically. Its been asking for such support for weeks now but this heavy death toll in a single incident is going to make those calls louder. Its also going to put Turkey on the spot to put up or shut up and its equally as possible they will wimp out by throwing up some artillery for a bit rather than retaliate heavily and to effect.

    Not sure what Turkey expects. It has soldiers in another country uninvited. How are they anything except legitimate military targets?
    And the muscle behind NATO is the USA and the UK who aren't going to care about the refugee flows.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    BigRich said:

    slade said:

    Rumours that Lab might be in trouble in Manchester!

    Sorry if this is a stupid question, but for what? a local government by-election?
    Yes. Labour hold 93 out of the 96 seats on Manchester City Council so a loss would be significant.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Casino_Royale said:


    My current thinking is that he wins but not quite enough to radically change the narrative.

    I expect him to undershoot his best polling.

    He doesn't need to change it to "Biden winning", he just needs to change it to "it's a race between Bernie and Biden".
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Yokes said:

    BigRich said:

    Yokes said:

    Sanders victory in the primary isn't just a problem in that he may prove unable to build a voter coalition wide enough but its also more likely to bring in Bloomberg as a 3rd party runner.

    If there is a 3rd party run, I would have thought that it might be Mitt Romney. but who knows? Bloomberg with Romney and his VP?
    Romney would do himself damage with the GOP in the future to run now so it would be a immense, risk. There has always been an anti Trump movement within the GOP. One group tried to get James Mattis to run in 2016 but he turned it down. They ended up with Evan McMullin as their spoiler..... .

    No doubt someone, whether on the Democratic ticket, a GOP rebellion ticket or even a Bloomberg 3rd party ticket should it come about will have knocked on Mattis' door.



    having voted to impeach Trump, I think Romney is no longer popular enough (among republicans) to ever win the Republican Nomination himself again, I may be wrong.

    But Romney does have enough popularity in Utar to be in the lead there in presidential election, such that media will have to give him some attention. unlike other 3rd party candadits.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    rottenborough said:

    BigRich said:

    Yokes said:

    Sanders victory in the primary isn't just a problem in that he may prove unable to build a voter coalition wide enough but its also more likely to bring in Bloomberg as a 3rd party runner.

    If there is a 3rd party run, I would have thought that it might be Mitt Romney. but who knows? Bloomberg with Romney and his VP?
    Possible.

    But I think Romney is biding his time. Setting himself up to rescue the GOP from the car crash of the second term of Trump.

    Haley vs Romney GOP primary 2024?
    Romney is a lot older than he looks. He's 72. And I'm sure that hair is dyed.

    But he's also a very fit 72. He regularly skis, and skis well.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    It appears that Con hold in South Cambridgeshire but LD gain in Cambridgeshire CC election.
  • Options
    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    slade said:

    BigRich said:

    slade said:

    Rumours that Lab might be in trouble in Manchester!

    Sorry if this is a stupid question, but for what? a local government by-election?
    Yes. Labour hold 93 out of the 96 seats on Manchester City Council so a loss would be significant.
    Significant? If Labour are left with 92 seats, they still have outright control!

    Maybe significant for the media narrative, if the media paid attention to local government by-election.

  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    Lab hold in Crewe
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    slade said:

    Lab hold in Crewe

    The Lab winner was the former MP who lost her seat at the General Election.
  • Options
    sladeslade Posts: 1,929
    slade said:

    It appears that Con hold in South Cambridgeshire but LD gain in Cambridgeshire CC election.

    Now confirmed. Duxford: LD 1607, Con 1090
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    Sherrod Brown doesn’t rule out accepting Democratic nomination at contested convention

    https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/02/sherrod-brown-doesnt-rule-out-accepting-democratic-nomination-at-contested-convention.html
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.

    It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
    Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    slade said:

    Lab hold in Crewe

    God alone knows what Gwyneth Dunwoody would have made of Corbyn's Labour clownfest.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.

    It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
    Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
    I fear we are just about to go into the woods
    Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.

  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,145
    The fightback begins in earnest:

    https://thehill.com/homenews/house/485064-centrist-democrats-insist-sanders-would-need-delegate-majority-to-win
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,439
    edited February 2020
    Big changes since yesterday:

    Dem nom:

    Sanders 2
    Biden 4.8
    Bloomberg 6

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited February 2020
    rottenborough said:

    Foxy said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    rottenborough said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I now wonder if Biden is slightly overcooked but I’m not sure I want to lay him just yet.

    Super Tuesday will really shake out his odds and Bloomberg’s still further.

    Just topped up on Biden as next POTUS.

    Virus news sweeps across US in next few days, stocks crashing etc etc.

    A nation turns its lonely eyes to sense and security and Biden?
    Fair enough. Not topping up on him at current prices but you could be right.

    South Carolina will be interesting.
    He has to win that, big time. That might unlock the South.
    My current thinking is that he wins but not quite enough to radically change the narrative.

    I expect him to undershoot his best polling.
    Me too. Sanders will be on his tail, and ahead on delagates. The Super Tuesday States look good for Bernie.
    A contested convention needs to stop him then. Dem delegates would be mad to let him lead the ticket if he can't get the majority of delegates.
    There's no reason to think, totting up all the polls of the swing states, and then setting them against at the national ones, to think that either BIden or Sanders would do clearly better. There's just no clear evidence for it so far.

    In this scenario, the choice between BIden and Sanders may become more ideological, and if it is that could have potentially huge reverberations for the unity of the democratic party. To a certain extent it would be much better for the democratic establishment if either Sanders or Biden was very clearly ahead, as a runner against Trump, or if one of them does become that in future.
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,976
    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.

    It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
    Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
    I fear we are just about to go into the woods
    Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.

    I lived through the Ridsdale years at Leeds. I can handle anything.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,936
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233099328513806336?s=20
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,936
    edited February 2020
    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233171288056791043?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233172824921165826?s=20
  • Options
    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited February 2020
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233099328513806336?s=20

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233099328513806336?s=20

    All the same again. Sanders performing very well in some swing states, Biden in others, favoured by the democratic primary voters, but nationally pretty much in a dead heat with Biden against Trump.

    There's quite a few in the Democrat establishment, but not all, who would be happier if Super Tuesday brings clarity either way, than if Biden does unexpectedly but inconclusively well. Picking either Sanders or BIden on what appears to be ideological grounds , could either spark a massive backlash from the centrist establishment democrats, or Sanders' new grassroots movement.

    The appearance of pragmatism based purely on very clear voting patterns would just about hold things together, on the other hand.
  • Options
    SagandSagand Posts: 35
    edited February 2020
    Iowa recount done, Pete won.

    https://twitter.com/JakeDaveWebster/status/1233185231072444416?s=20
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,439
    Maybe that meeting wasn't such a good idea.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.

    It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
    Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
    I'm struggling to reconcile the substantial warnings from experts with the fact that surely behaviours will change once the first few cities have big outbreaks. Surely we won't get beyond a few to 20,000 dead.

    However, in general I am quite prone to normalcy bias, so I've plan for the worst: that I'll have to feed myself, my diabetic pneumonia prone mother and younger sister for a month on 1500kcals/day/person. If quarantine is any longer than that I'll have to venture out. If (and probably when) the food supplies are not needed they'll go to the food back. And the moment the virus looks to have taken hold in the UK I'll be driving back.
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    eadric said:

    My theory that the bug attacks politicians, especially?

    Politicians are old.
    Politicians meet lots of people.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Chameleon said:


    I'm struggling to reconcile the substantial warnings from experts with the fact that surely behaviours will change once the first few cities have big outbreaks. Surely we won't get beyond a few to 20,000 dead.

    I don't know where you came up with that number (or who the "we" is) but the problem is that changing behaviour can only do so much to reduce the risk. You don't know who's infected until after they've been infecting other people for a while, and if people stop going into any situation where they can come in contact with each other you stop the world economy and kill people a different way. Ultimately if a lot of people are going to get it, even if a smallish proportion of them die, a lot of people are going to die.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,919
    Sagand said:

    Iowa recount done, Pete won.

    https://twitter.com/JakeDaveWebster/status/1233185231072444416?s=20

    Where's @speedy2 when you need him?
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    edited February 2020
    Chameleon said:

    eadric said:

    My theory that the bug attacks politicians, especially?

    Politicians are old.
    Politicians meet lots of people.
    Also, high stress, travel, not enough sleep. All bad for the immune system.
  • Options
    TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,043

  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edmundintokyo said:

    Chameleon said:


    I'm struggling to reconcile the substantial warnings from experts with the fact that surely behaviours will change once the first few cities have big outbreaks. Surely we won't get beyond a few to 20,000 dead.

    I don't know where you came up with that number (or who the "we" is) but the problem is that changing behaviour can only do so much to reduce the risk. You don't know who's infected until after they've been infecting other people for a while, and if people stop going into any situation where they can come in contact with each other you stop the world economy and kill people a different way. Ultimately if a lot of people are going to get it, even if a smallish proportion of them die, a lot of people are going to die.
    'we' is UK.

    20,000 is assuming 1% get infected, and 4% of them die.

    Yeah I suppose so, I'm just struggling to get to terms with the fact that something really quite bad, of the scale we normally see in films, might be about to happen. The high end expert reasonable worst case of up to 70% getting it implies near enough 2-3 million UK deaths, which as Mr Meeks put it, will make it a serious before/after event like 9/11. I guess by this time next week we'll have a pretty good idea of where Europe is at.

    256 new cases of coronavirus in South Korea, they've now topped 2,000 and doubled in about 2 days.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,936
    edited February 2020
    Bill Clinton tells friends he fears the Democrats will be wiped out in November's general election if they pick Sanders, while Obama appeals for party unity

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8053317/Bill-Clinton-fretting-Bernie-Obama-pitches-unified-support.html
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    Chameleon said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Chameleon said:


    I'm struggling to reconcile the substantial warnings from experts with the fact that surely behaviours will change once the first few cities have big outbreaks. Surely we won't get beyond a few to 20,000 dead.

    I don't know where you came up with that number (or who the "we" is) but the problem is that changing behaviour can only do so much to reduce the risk. You don't know who's infected until after they've been infecting other people for a while, and if people stop going into any situation where they can come in contact with each other you stop the world economy and kill people a different way. Ultimately if a lot of people are going to get it, even if a smallish proportion of them die, a lot of people are going to die.
    'we' is UK.

    20,000 is assuming 1% get infected, and 4% of them die.

    Yeah I suppose so, I'm just struggling to get to terms with the fact that something really quite bad, of the scale we normally see in films, might be about to happen. The high end expert reasonable worst case of up to 70% getting it implies near enough 2-3 million UK deaths, which as Mr Meeks put it, will make it a serious before/after event like 9/11. I guess by this time next week we'll have a pretty good idea of where Europe is at.

    256 new cases of coronavirus in South Korea, they've now topped 2,000 and doubled in about 2 days.
    The 1% number is weird, if you can't stop 1% getting it then it's everywhere, it's not obvious how you stop another 20% or 40% getting it.

    At this point you're way beyond the kind of numbers that the hospitals can help with, so the mortality rate gets worse not better.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,439
    edited February 2020
    "The most dangerous thing about coronavirus is the hysteria
    It is the latest phenomenon to fulfil our weird and growing appetite for doom

    Ross Clark" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2020/02/the-most-dangerous-thing-about-coronavirus-is-the-hysteria/
  • Options
    The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 374
    Dura_Ace said:



    I lived through the Ridsdale years at Leeds. I can handle anything.

    :)

    MoT.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,936
    Andy_JS said:

    "The most dangerous thing about coronavirus is the hysteria
    It is the latest phenomenon to fulfil our weird and growing appetite for doom

    Ross Clark" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2020/02/the-most-dangerous-thing-about-coronavirus-is-the-hysteria/

    Indeed and this is supposed to be political betting not virology betting.

    The fact is well over 90% of those who get coronavirus will recover from it, it is no deadlier than the risk from most surgery
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,141
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The most dangerous thing about coronavirus is the hysteria
    It is the latest phenomenon to fulfil our weird and growing appetite for doom

    Ross Clark" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2020/02/the-most-dangerous-thing-about-coronavirus-is-the-hysteria/

    Indeed and this is supposed to be political betting not virology betting.

    The fact is well over 90% of those who get coronavirus will recover from it, it is no deadlier than the risk from most surgery
    If there was a serious possibility that 40% of the voters might suddenly have to undergo surgery this year then we should probably be talking about the political implications...
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    edited February 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The most dangerous thing about coronavirus is the hysteria
    It is the latest phenomenon to fulfil our weird and growing appetite for doom

    Ross Clark" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2020/02/the-most-dangerous-thing-about-coronavirus-is-the-hysteria/

    Indeed and this is supposed to be political betting not virology betting.

    The fact is well over 90% of those who get coronavirus will recover from it, it is no deadlier than the risk from most surgery
    Given that people under 40 appear to have a mortality rate that is as good as zero while 75+ year olds have a 10-15% mortality rate it's extremely relevant to politics.

    Funnily enough, this is another article put out by the spectator:

    https://twitter.com/Spectator_LIFE/status/1233083372601106432

    I'll take the Doctor's opinion over the clueless journalist.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Someone's worried...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233208695099666433?s=20
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Someone's very worried..."boarder"!

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233218304271167489?s=20
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "The most dangerous thing about coronavirus is the hysteria
    It is the latest phenomenon to fulfil our weird and growing appetite for doom

    Ross Clark" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/2020/02/the-most-dangerous-thing-about-coronavirus-is-the-hysteria/

    Indeed and this is supposed to be political betting not virology betting.

    The fact is well over 90% of those who get coronavirus will recover from it, it is no deadlier than the risk from most surgery
    Given that people under 40 appear to have a mortality rate that is as good as zero while 75+ year olds have a 10-15% mortality rate it's extremely relevant to politics.

    Funnily enough, this is another article put out by the spectator:

    https://twitter.com/Spectator_LIFE/status/1233083372601106432

    I'll take the Doctor's opinion over the clueless journalist.
    I think it can be very dangerous to take one person's or one profession's take on an issue as pervasive and complex as the risks of an epidemic. Societal responses to pandemics is a truly multidisciplinary affair, and I know no-one who claims to be expert in all aspects.

    Medical professionals nearly always focus on the scientific and medical aspects of systems risks, but very rarely look as social behaviours beyond the epidemiological model. While the doctor is no doubt correct in his assessment of the risks relevant to his own expertise, it is also true that our response to irrational risks is often more damaging than the original hazard.

    For example, in the evacuations from the Fukushima reactor explosions, it was subsequently assessed that more people died from the evacuation (from eg not having access to medications left behind in the rush to leave) than would have died from the radiation had they stayed.

    So I'd rather compliment the Spectator on reporting on two equally valid aspects of the risks.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    eadric said:

    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    He’s been Biden his time.

    Mate, I’ve done that joke more often than @eadric has posted about coronavirus.

    Are you here all week?
    I’ve been Biden my time.
    Repetition is the essence of the best comedy.

    Meanwhile, file under Quite Bad News For Dogs

    https://twitter.com/flutrackers/status/1233097272314998784?s=21
    Does it cause disease in dogs, or just infection?
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    https://twitter.com/neal_katyal/status/1233179410238496776?s=20
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,810
    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.

    It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
    Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
    I fear we are just about to go into the woods
    Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.

    Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).

    If nothing else, it will give us perspective
    How much bollox can you snowflakes write on this, go get some medication to calm you down.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Feeling the heat...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233256774964273152?s=20
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,234
    CarlottaVance said:

    Feeling the heat...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233256774964273152?s=20

    A tale of two narratives. Trump closing the border (whether or not he actually has) versus Trump's decimation of the CDC and other medical agencies.
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Feeling the heat...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233256774964273152?s=20

    A tale of two narratives. Trump closing the border (whether or not he actually has) versus Trump's decimation of the CDC and other medical agencies.
    The only border Trump is closing is with Mexico (zero reported cases, vs US on 60 and rising) and it was airlines that suspended flights. Meanwhile the CDC has to clear any press releases with Pence and the people who looked after the China quarantined arrivals were given no safety briefing until after a week on the job - which is probably how the virus has escaped into the community around the quarantine site.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TimT said:

    eadric said:

    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    He’s been Biden his time.

    Mate, I’ve done that joke more often than @eadric has posted about coronavirus.

    Are you here all week?
    I’ve been Biden my time.
    Repetition is the essence of the best comedy.

    Meanwhile, file under Quite Bad News For Dogs

    https://twitter.com/flutrackers/status/1233097272314998784?s=21
    Does it cause disease in dogs, or just infection?
    Neither is going to be good for dogs if it’s decided they can be a reservoir for the virus.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    For those wistfully harking back to the age of Blair as a halcyon time of stability and good government - Charles Clarke helpfully reminds us they were a load of third rate unselfaware hypocrites.

    Universities need to lose 'sense of entitlement'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-51662983

    One of my lecturers had a drawing of Clarke on his door. The caption was, ‘Some people are paid by the state, and contribute nothing to society...

    ...but enough of me.’
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,108
    @PBModerator somebody else is putting up fake threads. This post should knock it off the top of the Vanilla board.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/monicabeharding/status/1233067449479815173?s=21
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    Advice for travellers:

    https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-specified-countries-and-areas/covid-19-specified-countries-and-areas-with-implications-for-returning-travellers-or-visitors-arriving-in-the-uk
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,234
    CarlottaVance said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Feeling the heat...

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1233256774964273152?s=20

    A tale of two narratives. Trump closing the border (whether or not he actually has) versus Trump's decimation of the CDC and other medical agencies.
    The only border Trump is closing is with Mexico (zero reported cases, vs US on 60 and rising) and it was airlines that suspended flights. Meanwhile the CDC has to clear any press releases with Pence and the people who looked after the China quarantined arrivals were given no safety briefing until after a week on the job - which is probably how the virus has escaped into the community around the quarantine site.
    Facts are one thing. Political narratives are quite another.
  • Options
    northernpowerhouse2northernpowerhouse2 Posts: 190
    TimT said:

    eadric said:

    Jonathan said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Jonathan said:

    He’s been Biden his time.

    Mate, I’ve done that joke more often than @eadric has posted about coronavirus.

    Are you here all week?
    I’ve been Biden my time.
    Repetition is the essence of the best comedy.

    Meanwhile, file under Quite Bad News For Dogs

    https://twitter.com/flutrackers/status/1233097272314998784?s=21
    Does it cause disease in dogs, or just infection?
    It is beginning to sound like one of the original Planet Of The Apes movies. And not one of the good ones. About all the pets dying so we enslave apes.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,234
    Several Twitch streamers of this week's debate were blocked after false copyright claims. It is said the blocked streamers were Sanders supporters.

    https://mashable.com/article/twitch-fake-copyright-claim-democratic-debate/

    This might be significant if it is found that the firm that made the claims is linked to one of the other candidates. Or not.
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited February 2020
    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.

    It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
    Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
    I fear we are just about to go into the woods
    Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.

    Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).

    If nothing else, it will give us perspective
    I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.

    It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.

    And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.

    Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mysticrose said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.

    It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
    Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
    I fear we are just about to go into the woods
    Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.

    Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).

    If nothing else, it will give us perspective
    I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.

    It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.

    And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.

    Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
    You don’t have anything to apologise for. If I were to apologise every time I took a view that didn’t age well I’d be here a long time.
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited February 2020
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Mysticrose said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.

    It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
    Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
    I fear we are just about to go into the woods
    Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.

    Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).

    If nothing else, it will give us perspective
    I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.

    It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.

    And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.

    Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
    You don’t have anything to apologise for. If I were to apologise every time I took a view that didn’t age well I’d be here a long time.
    Sweet. All the same, I'm sorry.

    :blush:
  • Options
    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,570
    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1233277149093691392?s=20
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,494
    Mysticrose said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.

    It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
    Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
    I fear we are just about to go into the woods
    Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.

    Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).

    If nothing else, it will give us perspective
    I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.

    It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.

    And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.

    Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
    You and I were discussing this on 27th Jan, well before eadric first posted.

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2696066#Comment_2696066
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1233277149093691392?s=20

    You can get Lisa Nandy at 38s on Betfair at the moment.

    I've topped up.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,258
    Foxy said:

    Mysticrose said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.

    It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
    Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
    I fear we are just about to go into the woods
    Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.

    Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).

    If nothing else, it will give us perspective
    I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.

    It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.

    And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.

    Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
    You and I were discussing this on 27th Jan, well before eadric first posted.

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2696066#Comment_2696066
    And I was Eadric before Eadric:

    https://twitter.com/casinoroyalepb/status/1220091232518578181?s=19
  • Options
    MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Foxy said:

    Mysticrose said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    eadric said:

    rottenborough said:

    Will COVID-19 go away on its own in warmer weather?

    https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

    Amongst other things, that analysis is a very fine example of scientific writing in plain but lucid English prose, entirely accessible to the intelligent layman.

    It also suggests he knows whereof he speaks. We cannot rely on warmer skies.
    Yep. We are not out of the woods yet, by a long stretch.
    I fear we are just about to go into the woods
    Only people in their late 80s and 90s will have any memory of living through this kind of massive level crisis.

    Well, it’s not nailed on yet. But it is now highly possible. A crisis equivalent to a serious war (not an Iraq misjudgment).

    If nothing else, it will give us perspective
    I don't think you should rein back now that you are being proven right. This is probably going to be far worse than those apparently bleak posts you put up a week ago.

    It's not necessarily the human toll that will be the biggest wipeout but the hammering of the global economy. We have never been so exposed to global markets and everything is being affected. I could see the stock markets losing another 25% before they bottom out, and even that may be optimistic.

    And Malcom McAngry calling you a 'snowflake' would be hilarious if it didn't show what a shrivelled old Scottish prune he is. Ignore the idiot. He will eat his words before too long.

    Alastair, I apologised to Eadric for mocking your doomsday thread the other day and I now do so to you. Sadly, I think you too are being proven right.
    You and I were discussing this on 27th Jan, well before eadric first posted.

    https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2696066#Comment_2696066
    Gosh. What a great memory. Okay that makes me feel a little better! :wink:
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