I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
Buy shares in Blackpool B&Bs.
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
I’m probably what you would sneeringly deem the metropolitan classes. However, I haven’t been on a foreign holiday for three years and my last summer break was spent in Kent and before that Suffolk. The prospect of spending the warmest part of the year in England isn’t at all worrying to me. It’s what I do most years!
Indeed. My experience of parts of the Isle of Wight, North Nofolk and the West Country is that a lot of Chelsea is found there over the summer.
Indeed British holidays seem to mostly be for the skint, the older generation, dog owners and the upper middle class already.
This year they will be for EVERYONE
What holidays? We will all be locked in our houses.
I'm actually kind of up for that for a few weeks (or at least I would be if I didn't have a one year old).
There's loads of books I can read, and models I can build and .. I can play a lot of Civ 6.
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
Buy shares in Blackpool B&Bs.
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
I’m probably what you would sneeringly deem the metropolitan classes. However, I haven’t been on a foreign holiday for three years and my last summer break was spent in Kent and before that Suffolk. The prospect of spending the warmest part of the year in England isn’t at all worrying to me. It’s what I do most years!
Indeed. My experience of parts of the Isle of Wight, North Nofolk and the West Country is that a lot of Chelsea is found there over the summer.
Indeed British holidays seem to mostly be for the skint, the older generation, dog owners and the upper middle class already.
This year they will be for EVERYONE
Who the feck cares where they go on holiday this year? If you are lucky you'll be alive and able to moan about not having a summer holiday.
There was some talk that the weather might start to warm up in March to help dissipate the virus, but so far it is an average of 1C colder than in February, so no respite there.
It is still Winter until March 20th
So you are one of those crazy people who thinks that midsummers day is the first day of summer.
1st of March is the start of Spring.
Winter Started on 21st December and Spring starts with the Spring equinox on 20th March
Correct. The seasons are set by the cosmos and not by the regulations of any government agency - the so-called ‘meteorological definition‘ simply means that of the Met Office.
"Set by the cosmos"?
Is there some cosmic definition written in the stars? All definitions are man made not some immutable law of nature.
That is incorrect when it comes to the seasons. The equinoxes and solstices are the transitions between the seasons, everything else is a construct.
That is incorrect. The equinoxes don't actually mark the points where the Earth's tilt towards the sun changes which is why the weather doesn't like up with those dates. Through June the northern hemisphere is tilted more to the sun which is why we get warmer summer weather even though we haven't had the equinox yet.
Physics.
Not Physics. The whole point of the equinox is that it is one of the two points in the year when the earth's axis is normal to the sun.
Thermal lag is why the hottest part of the summer is after the longest day.
Are you confusing them with solstices?
Yes sorry that was a typo, my point is that in June (and as you said before too) the earth tilts towards the sun which is why it is warm and summer as the lag has been dealt with by middle of June. The Solstice doesn't cause or introduce summer, the earth's tilt does.
No the thermal lag hasn’t been ‘dealt with’ by the middle of June at all! The warmest fortnight of the year is on or around the first two weeks of August give or take a few days (statistically, on average, in the UK). That’s several weeks after the solstice on 21 June.
Does summer last one week in your eyes or for months? If you want to define summer as one week then sure pick a week in July or August, if its for months then June, July and August works.
As I said above if you were to do it by thermal seasons it would run roughly 12 June to 12 Sep and so on. But failing that the astronomical definition is pretty good.
Pretty good is fair enough. The meteorological definition is also pretty good.
My dispute was you claiming that one was correct because of the cosmos.
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
Rather heartless of you - how will the continent survive if it is cut-off?
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
And you couldn't "reopen" the country until the rest of the world gets rid of it. Meanwhile the "economic hit" kills millions of people via other routes. The country isn't self sufficient.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
What difference does it make now? People travelling in large numbers together, on trains, coaches and trains, are at risk - but that applies to internal UK travel as well. People driving in their own car aren’t at any more risk abroad than here.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
For how long?
If this epidemic is going to be in the wild for months or years are you going to implement those restrictions for years?
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
For how long?
If this epidemic is going to be in the wild for months or years are you going to implement those restrictions for years?
Well he is Kim Jong Un. Who's actual approach to this is apparently to enforce a 100% mortality rate for presenting cases.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
For how long?
If this epidemic is going to be in the wild for months or years are you going to implement those restrictions for years?
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
Buy shares in Blackpool B&Bs.
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
I’m probably what you would sneeringly deem the metropolitan classes. However, I haven’t been on a foreign holiday for three years and my last summer break was spent in Kent and before that Suffolk. The prospect of spending the warmest part of the year in England isn’t at all worrying to me. It’s what I do most years!
Indeed. My experience of parts of the Isle of Wight, North Nofolk and the West Country is that a lot of Chelsea is found there over the summer.
Indeed British holidays seem to mostly be for the skint, the older generation, dog owners and the upper middle class already.
This year they will be for EVERYONE
Who the feck cares where they go on holiday this year? If you are lucky you'll be alive and able to moan about not having a summer holiday.
No, get some perspective. This is not a zombie apocalypse movie.
We do need to emulate Korea though and get our measures in early.
I think tommorow is my last football match for the season though. Incidentally, odds way too long on the Villa...
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
But if it becomes endemic, we have to keep the barriers up forever, or at least until an effective vaccine comes along, so how do we recover as a nation of non-immune in a world full of those who have had it and survived? (I don't believe the reinfection claims at this stage).
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
That stable door has well and truly been opened....
Eventually...within the odd thousandth of a percentile or so..every country will have a similar profile of how this virus runs through it... the more comprehensive health systems will probably have lower mortality rates (probably though...not definitely)
Careful with such nationalist talk, YBarddCwsc will be along shortly to tell us all how the breed is in fact Welsh, having been crudely culturally appropriated by Nick Griffin and other such oiks.
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
And you couldn't "reopen" the country until the rest of the world gets rid of it. Meanwhile the "economic hit" kills millions of people via other routes. The country isn't self sufficient.
So what do you suggest? What would you do?
I'll leave those decisions to the experts.
We know lots of people will get this. We know lots of people will die from this. But not everyone. And not everyone.
Whatever approach is taken will be about how best to mitigate the effects. Try and delay the worst of it to a point at which the Health system is as best able to cope as possible. Hope an improvement in the weather has a positive effect. But balance everything also against the consequences of taking economically damaging measures at the same time.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
For how long?
If this epidemic is going to be in the wild for months or years are you going to implement those restrictions for years?
So what do you suggest? What would you do?
Recognise that spread is inevitable, try to slow it as much as possible to ease the strain on health services.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
Too late.
So what do you suggest? What would you do?
Contain and delay in a reasonable and scientifically justified manner as the government is doing.
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
Surely the virus in Italy is a different strain from the one in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute says it is not, but they're German, so you obviously can't trust them.
I just don't understand the vast statistical differences between what's going on in Italy and Germany, really.
They will both be the same when the final scores are in..(give or take)..it is just that in Italy more elderly and co-morbid patients have been exposed to the virus at an earlier stage...
They will both be the same when the final scores are in..(give or take)..it is just that in Italy more elderly and co-morbid patients have been exposed to the virus at an earlier stage...
Don't the Germans eventually always win on penalties?
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
Surely the virus in Italy is a different strain from the one in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute says it is not, but they're German, so you obviously can't trust them.
I just don't understand the vast statistical differences between what's going on in Italy and Germany, really.
Different stage of the outbreak. Italy has been bubbling for a while. Germany's cases are quite new and skew very young (same as Korea). Germany also have fewer cases - so can give them better treatment. There's no evidence of Germany having a special strain.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
Too late.
So what do you suggest? What would you do?
I think closing schools, sporting events and similar events will reduce the peak, and ease the strain on health care. Modelling suggests that this will reduce mortality by about 30%.
Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Germany keeps more of its Corona patients alive than other countries. They have (afaik) great health outcomes generally. Way better than the UK on things like cancer.
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
Surely the virus in Italy is a different strain from the one in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute says it is not, but they're German, so you obviously can't trust them.
I just don't understand the vast statistical differences between what's going on in Italy and Germany, really.
Different stage of the outbreak. Italy has been bubbling for a while. Germany's cases are quite new and skew very young (same as Korea). Germany also have fewer cases - so can give them better treatment. There's no evidence of Germany having a special strain.
Germany also has the highest ICU capacity per capita in the EU, roughly twice Italy, and four times ours.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
Too late.
So what do you suggest? What would you do?
I think closing schools, sporting events and similar events will reduce the peak, and ease the strain on health care. Modelling suggests that this will reduce mortality by about 30%.
Can the country actually continue to function if all schools are closed?
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
Buy shares in Blackpool B&Bs.
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
I’m probably what you would sneeringly deem the metropolitan classes. However, I haven’t been on a foreign holiday for three years and my last summer break was spent in Kent and before that Suffolk. The prospect of spending the warmest part of the year in England isn’t at all worrying to me. It’s what I do most years!
Indeed. My experience of parts of the Isle of Wight, North Nofolk and the West Country is that a lot of Chelsea is found there over the summer.
Indeed British holidays seem to mostly be for the skint, the older generation, dog owners and the upper middle class already.
This year they will be for EVERYONE
Who the feck cares where they go on holiday this year? If you are lucky you'll be alive and able to moan about not having a summer holiday.
No, get some perspective. This is not a zombie apocalypse movie.
We do need to emulate Korea though and get our measures in early.
I think tommorow is my last football match for the season though. Incidentally, odds way too long on the Villa...
My friend in Le Marche says it is exactly that...like being in a remake of 28 days later
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
Too late.
So what do you suggest? What would you do?
I think closing schools, sporting events and similar events will reduce the peak, and ease the strain on health care. Modelling suggests that this will reduce mortality by about 30%.
Can the country actually continue to function if all schools are closed?
Well it does for six weeks in the summer. Although there are alternative childcare provisions.
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
Surely the virus in Italy is a different strain from the one in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute says it is not, but they're German, so you obviously can't trust them.
I just don't understand the vast statistical differences between what's going on in Italy and Germany, really.
Different stage of the outbreak. Italy has been bubbling for a while. Germany's cases are quite new and skew very young (same as Korea). Germany also have fewer cases - so can give them better treatment. There's no evidence of Germany having a special strain.
Germany also has the highest ICU capacity per capita in the EU, roughly twice Italy, and four times ours.
Italy's ICU capacity is twice ours? That's a bit worrying...
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
Too late.
So what do you suggest? What would you do?
Contain and delay in a reasonable and scientifically justified manner as the government is doing.
You have some bizarre faith in the infallibility of government. eg until yesterday you were agreeing with HMG's "advice", as expressed through Boris, that hand-shaking is fine. I presume you have now accepted that this is just daft.
I agree that we should listen to experts, and generally they do know better. But they are not flawless, especially when confronting a new weird danger like this. They will make hideous mistakes, the same way UK governments have made terrible mistakes when confronted by new, unexpected forms of warfare.
Not giving everyone in Britain a bunch of masks and telling them all to wear them or suffer a fine is one elementary error. It would have cost us a few million, and saved billions. Tsk.
Did you miss the advice that wearing masks could be counterproductive? And that there isn't a limitless supply?
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
Surely the virus in Italy is a different strain from the one in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute says it is not, but they're German, so you obviously can't trust them.
I just don't understand the vast statistical differences between what's going on in Italy and Germany, really.
Different stage of the outbreak. Italy has been bubbling for a while. Germany's cases are quite new and skew very young (same as Korea). Germany also have fewer cases - so can give them better treatment. There's no evidence of Germany having a special strain.
Germany also has the highest ICU capacity per capita in the EU, roughly twice Italy, and four times ours.
The scores on the doors will be much of a muchness across Europe...all our health systems will collapse and most people will probably suffer at home...but yes, in the kick off the Germans are doing quite well....
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
Surely the virus in Italy is a different strain from the one in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute says it is not, but they're German, so you obviously can't trust them.
I just don't understand the vast statistical differences between what's going on in Italy and Germany, really.
Different stage of the outbreak. Italy has been bubbling for a while. Germany's cases are quite new and skew very young (same as Korea). Germany also have fewer cases - so can give them better treatment. There's no evidence of Germany having a special strain.
Germany also has the highest ICU capacity per capita in the EU, roughly twice Italy, and four times ours.
Italy's ICU capacity is twice ours? That's a bit worrying...
We're talking about a few thousand beds? If this thing really kicks off those numbers are so small that the difference will be meaningless.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
Too late.
So what do you suggest? What would you do?
Contain and delay in a reasonable and scientifically justified manner as the government is doing.
You have some bizarre faith in the infallibility of government. eg until yesterday you were agreeing with HMG's "advice", as expressed through Boris, that hand-shaking is fine. I presume you have now accepted that this is just daft.
I agree that we should listen to experts, and generally they do know better. But they are not flawless, especially when confronting a new weird danger like this. They will make hideous mistakes, the same way UK governments have made terrible mistakes when confronted by new, unexpected forms of warfare.
Not giving everyone in Britain a bunch of masks and telling them all to wear them or suffer a fine is one elementary error. It would have cost us a few million, and saved billions. Tsk.
Masks are not needed other than professional ones for the medics
Not touching your face and hand washing is far more important
If this epidemic is going to be in the wild for months or years are you going to implement those restrictions for years?
I think you'd stop them when either the UK internal situation also gets bad enough that it's pointless, or you have more reliable testing, more medical capacity, more knowledge about treatment etc.
I think the practical problem is that many of the people you'd be stopping getting back in are British, and British people vote. So I expect they'll instead do a bunch of ineffective things targetting foreigners like cancelling visas.
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
Surely the virus in Italy is a different strain from the one in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute says it is not, but they're German, so you obviously can't trust them.
I just don't understand the vast statistical differences between what's going on in Italy and Germany, really.
Different stage of the outbreak. Italy has been bubbling for a while. Germany's cases are quite new and skew very young (same as Korea). Germany also have fewer cases - so can give them better treatment. There's no evidence of Germany having a special strain.
Germany also has the highest ICU capacity per capita in the EU, roughly twice Italy, and four times ours.
Italy's ICU capacity is twice ours? That's a bit worrying...
We're talking about a few thousand beds? If this thing really kicks off those numbers are so small that the difference will be meaningless.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
Too late.
So what do you suggest? What would you do?
Above my pay grade. Perhaps there isn't an answer. I would say the government seems to be following the experts and doing the right things at the moment. Glad I don't work at the moment though and can stay skulking around my house counting and recounting my food boxes.
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
Surely the virus in Italy is a different strain from the one in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute says it is not, but they're German, so you obviously can't trust them.
I just don't understand the vast statistical differences between what's going on in Italy and Germany, really.
They will both be the same when the final scores are in..(give or take)..it is just that in Italy more elderly and co-morbid patients have been exposed to the virus at an earlier stage...
Yet we hear stories of young people getting it bad in Italy.
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
Too late.
So what do you suggest? What would you do?
Contain and delay in a reasonable and scientifically justified manner as the government is doing.
You have some bizarre faith in the infallibility of government. eg until yesterday you were agreeing with HMG's "advice", as expressed through Boris, that hand-shaking is fine. I presume you have now accepted that this is just daft.
I agree that we should listen to experts, and generally they do know better. But they are not flawless, especially when confronting a new weird danger like this. They will make hideous mistakes, the same way UK governments have made terrible mistakes when confronted by new, unexpected forms of warfare.
Not giving everyone in Britain a bunch of masks and telling them all to wear them or suffer a fine is one elementary error. It would have cost us a few million, and saved billions. Tsk.
Did you miss the advice that wearing masks could be counterproductive? And that there isn't a limitless supply?
The advice is completely wrong.
The point of compulsory mask wearing is not to reduce the risk of infection for the wearer (the effect is debatable and marginal), it is to reduce the risk of spreading (through sneezes and coughs) by the carrier.
It's that simple. Yet you haven't grasped this.
Many experts and others disagree. You are not always right you know
I think there are now 5 cruise liners being turned away by ports.
It seems that while the deaths are amongst the older ages, in Italy the Median age for COVID19 cases in ICU is 49.
What's happening in Italy is scary....I think we are three weeks behind them
It certainly is, though perhaps two weeks.
In terms of public health and population movements, I would be concerned about Romania. There is a big Romanian diaspora working in Nort Italy, and so spread to there may well be a big issue.
A lot of the smaller factories in Lombardia employ a lot of Chinese illegals, and that is thought to be the initiating cases.
Also Chinese tourists in Venice. There are - or were - millions of them.
Oxford, York, Bath, and er... Bicester Village are all risky areas on that basis then.
I think that we are long past looking for Chinese contacts, that horse has bolted and is a couple of fields away.
Yes, I agree: my only point is that we could expect early UK clusters to emerge where there have been Chinese tourists. I am pretty sure this accounts for the problems in the Veneto.
But as you say, it is largely irrelevant now. We have intra-community transmission and we desperately need to avoid becoming Italy.
Any ideas on how we stop becoming Italy?
I agree on face masks btw.
We need to ruthlessly take advantage of the fact that we are an island. We can literally stop people entering, in a way other nations can't.
Cease flights, stop eurostar, no more ferries. Close the country. We will take an enormous economic hit, but recovery could be quick, if we get it right.
If I was the Kim Jon Un of Britain, that's what I would do.
Too late.
So what do you suggest? What would you do?
Contain and delay in a reasonable and scientifically justified manner as the government is doing.
You have some bizarre faith in the infallibility of government. eg until yesterday you were agreeing with HMG's "advice", as expressed through Boris, that hand-shaking is fine. I presume you have now accepted that this is just daft.
I agree that we should listen to experts, and generally they do know better. But they are not flawless, especially when confronting a new weird danger like this. They will make hideous mistakes, the same way UK governments have made terrible mistakes when confronted by new, unexpected forms of warfare.
Not giving everyone in Britain a bunch of masks and telling them all to wear them or suffer a fine is one elementary error. It would have cost us a few million, and saved billions. Tsk.
Did you miss the advice that wearing masks could be counterproductive? And that there isn't a limitless supply?
The advice is completely wrong.
The point of compulsory mask wearing is not to reduce the risk of infection for the wearer (the effect is debatable and marginal), it is to reduce the risk of spreading (through sneezes and coughs) by the carrier.
It's that simple. Yet you haven't grasped this.
Or you could hold in sneezes and cough into tissues. And there isn't a limitless supply. And I wonder how you are going to enforce this compulsory under risk of fines regime.
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
Surely the virus in Italy is a different strain from the one in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute says it is not, but they're German, so you obviously can't trust them.
I just don't understand the vast statistical differences between what's going on in Italy and Germany, really.
They will both be the same when the final scores are in..(give or take)..it is just that in Italy more elderly and co-morbid patients have been exposed to the virus at an earlier stage...
Yet we hear stories of young people getting it bad in Italy.
They've had it for longer, and crucially, few to no young people have died in Italy yet, so why would they be dying in Germany already?
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
Surely the virus in Italy is a different strain from the one in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute says it is not, but they're German, so you obviously can't trust them.
I just don't understand the vast statistical differences between what's going on in Italy and Germany, really.
Different stage of the outbreak. Italy has been bubbling for a while. Germany's cases are quite new and skew very young (same as Korea). Germany also have fewer cases - so can give them better treatment. There's no evidence of Germany having a special strain.
Germany also has the highest ICU capacity per capita in the EU, roughly twice Italy, and four times ours.
Italy's ICU capacity is twice ours? That's a bit worrying...
If this epidemic is going to be in the wild for months or years are you going to implement those restrictions for years?
I think you'd stop them when either the UK internal situation also gets bad enough that it's pointless, or you have more reliable testing, more medical capacity, more knowledge about treatment etc.
I think the practical problem is that many of the people you'd be stopping getting back in are British, and British people vote. So I expect they'll instead do a bunch of ineffective things targetting foreigners like cancelling visas.
The "practical problem" is that the country would starve. Or were all the crash out no deal warnings nonsense? And they were only caused by supply delays, not supply prevention!
I am amazed that any country atm is allowing Cruise ship travel. Utterly mental.
Cruises to Africa or Latin America and the Caribbean should be alright as there is little coronavirus there yet and it is much warmer
It's not where you go, it's who gets on the ship with you.
Sadly, I think our transatlatic trip on QM2 in May is a goner.
I cancelled my hotels in Rome and Venice for the start of May earlier on this evening.
A couple of days ago I predicted that most international air travel would essentially end in a fortnight or so (excluding Africa and LatAm).
I was met with skepticism, but I reckon I was right. Some essential travel will of course continue but I see a near-total hiatus in holidays for a while
Buy shares in Blackpool B&Bs.
Can you imagine the metropolitan class being forced to holiday in Britain? Could make some fantastic comedy sketches.
I don’t think the Uk tourism industry is going to be a winner from this, do you?
No idea. another_richard is interested in this topic. He's your man.
Am I ???
Thanks
Thinking about the UK tourism industry there are some places which are likely to suffer with a reduction of US, Chinese and other international tourists.
London, Oxford, Cambridge, York, Edinburgh, Bath, Canterbury for example.
Whereas the Blackpools, Bridlingtons and Bournemouths might do better as British people take fewer foreign holidays.
Now compare the voting tendencies of the two groups.
I really recommend that the "Just a flu" brigade read this translated post from an Italian Doctor near Milan's facebook post (excerpts from it below):
Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few.
I can also assure you that when you see young people who end up intubated in the ICU, pronated or worse, in ECMO (a machine for the worst cases, which extracts the blood, re-oxygenates it and returns it to the body, waiting for the lungs to hopefully heal), all this confidence for your young age goes away. And there are no more surgeons, urologists, orthopedists, we are only doctors who suddenly become part of a single team to face this tsunami that has overwhelmed us.
The cases multiply, up to a rate of 15-20 hospitalizations a day all for the same reason. The results of the swabs now come one after the other: positive, positive, positive. Suddenly the emergency room is collapsing. Emergency provisions are issued: help is needed in the emergency room. A quick meeting to learn how the to use to emergency room EHR and a few minutes later I'm already downstairs, next to the warriors on the war front. Some already needs to be intubated, and goes to the ICU. For others, however, it is late. ICU is full, and when ICUs are full, more are created. Each ventilator is like gold: those in the operating rooms that have now suspended their non-urgent activity are used and the OR become a an ICU that did not exist before.
I assure you that I have always done my best to constantly see my son even on the day after a night shift, without sleeping and postponing sleep until when I am without him, but for almost 2 weeks I have voluntarily not seen neither my son nor my family members for fear of infecting them and in turn infecting an elderly grandmother or relatives with other health problems. I'm happy with some photos of my son that I look at between tears and a few video calls.
Surely the virus in Italy is a different strain from the one in Germany.
The Robert Koch Institute says it is not, but they're German, so you obviously can't trust them.
I just don't understand the vast statistical differences between what's going on in Italy and Germany, really.
Different stage of the outbreak. Italy has been bubbling for a while. Germany's cases are quite new and skew very young (same as Korea). Germany also have fewer cases - so can give them better treatment. There's no evidence of Germany having a special strain.
Germany also has the highest ICU capacity per capita in the EU, roughly twice Italy, and four times ours.
Italy's ICU capacity is twice ours? That's a bit worrying...
Comments
The surgical high dependency unit, where the person worked a single nightshift on Friday, has been temporarily closed to new admissions as a result.
What does a poodle do, even when it's hair isn't trimmed so it looks like Karl Lagerfeld?
There's loads of books I can read, and models I can build and .. I can play a lot of Civ 6.
My dispute was you claiming that one was correct because of the cosmos.
If this epidemic is going to be in the wild for months or years are you going to implement those restrictions for years?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-live-updates-third-death-in-australia-as-cases-reach-more-than-70
This Job Is Being Replaced by an Algorithm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8A30CL2GHs
We do need to emulate Korea though and get our measures in early.
I think tommorow is my last football match for the season though. Incidentally, odds way too long on the Villa...
Eventually...within the odd thousandth of a percentile or so..every country will have a similar profile of how this virus runs through it... the more comprehensive health systems will probably have lower mortality rates (probably though...not definitely)
https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg
We know lots of people will get this. We know lots of people will die from this. But not everyone. And not everyone.
Whatever approach is taken will be about how best to mitigate the effects. Try and delay the worst of it to a point at which the Health system is as best able to cope as possible. Hope an improvement in the weather has a positive effect. But balance everything also against the consequences of taking economically damaging measures at the same time.
Not touching your face and hand washing is far more important
And making it an offence not to wear one is barmy
https://twitter.com/RonnieChopra1/status/1236780778962501634?s=19l
I think the practical problem is that many of the people you'd be stopping getting back in are British, and British people vote. So I expect they'll instead do a bunch of ineffective things targetting foreigners like cancelling visas.
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1231368774311464963?s=09
Yes 1.09
No 11
Aintree on 2 April:
Yes 2.2
No 1.74
Olympics Opening Ceremony on 24 July:
Yes 2.18
No 1.82
Thanks
Thinking about the UK tourism industry there are some places which are likely to suffer with a reduction of US, Chinese and other international tourists.
London, Oxford, Cambridge, York, Edinburgh, Bath, Canterbury for example.
Whereas the Blackpools, Bridlingtons and Bournemouths might do better as British people take fewer foreign holidays.
Now compare the voting tendencies of the two groups.
It seems they're going cheap at the moment.