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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Today’s ComRes local elections poll is based on 56pc saying

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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    TGOHF said:



    The busway has been an expensive mess. Don't get me started on it...

    .

    The contract fallout remains a mess but the utilisation has been off the charts - poor project management but a great resource now. The only people who don't like it are the one's who don't use it - the LDs are against it in principle - I think because it wasn't their idea.


    http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/News/Guided-bus-takes-600000-car-journeys-off-the-roads-says-council-28092012.htm

    "The study said the busway carried 2.5 million passengers in its first year, 40 per cent beyond its 1.75 million target "
    And the costs were £230 million, against estimated costs of £117 million. A rather spectacular over-run. That is £10 per journey (many of which will be returns, with one passenger), not counting running costs.

    And it dumps buses onto the increasingly-congested Milton Road for the last couple of miles into the city.

    Even then, the cycle path near St Ives is often blocked due to flooding.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    O/T:

    Dalrymple on second-hand bookshops:
    "Why second-hand bookshops are just my type
    As bookshops are displaced by the internet, the author of a new work on serendipity describes the joys of delving in dusty shelves "
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/9715377/Why-second-hand-bookshops-are-just-my-type.html
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    If differential turnout by men puts UKIP ahead of Labour in votes, and with twice the vote of the LibDems we start to be in earthquake territory. All three parties will be shaken to the foundations, and money would have to be on UKIP in first place in next years euros.

    No UKIP candidate in my area though, have now had two libdem and one Tory leaflet. Libdems get my vote, though not many others it seems.

    Peter Kellner of YouGov has already put his money on UKIP in next year's Euros, in an article in Prospect Magazine a few months ago.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,232
    @Norm

    Indeed, although various worthies seem to have got very upset about it.

    "Action Aid accused the government of "running away from middle-income countries" and drew parallels with the UK's decision last year to withdraw aid from India.

    "It seems to imply a more general UK policy of withdrawing aid from middle income countries abruptly and without the progressive phasing that would help communities adjust to new realities," spokeswoman Melanie Ward said.

    Oxfam called on ministers to ensure the decision to end direct aid would not cost lives.

    "Whilst South Africa should be in a position to fund its own development, there remains widespread poverty and inequality, so UK aid is still a lifeline for poor people," said Emma Seery, head of development finance and public services at the charity."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22365355
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2013



    And it dumps buses onto the increasingly-congested Milton Road for the last couple of miles into the city.


    I walk across Milton Road every morning between 7.30 and 8.30am - there is no congestion - does that count as an anecdote.

    Don't believe what you read in the Cambridge Evening Angry.

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621


    And the costs were £230 million, against estimated costs of £117 million. A rather spectacular over-run.

    Sadly that's a rather mundane overrun in government procurement.
    Holyrood came in at £414m against an estimate of £40m; the Eurofighter Typhoon came in at £37bn against an estimate of£7bn; continues ad nauseum...
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,232

    JonathanD said:



    "Whilst South Africa should be in a position to fund its own development, there remains widespread poverty and inequality, so UK aid is still a lifeline for poor people," said Emma Seery, head of development finance and public services at the charity."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22365355

    I'm not sure it's up to the British taxpayer to solve all of the problems of the world...



    I fully support UK aid being at 0.7% GDP but it should be focused at the poorest countries and if what this Oxfam person says is true then it seems clear that UK Aid has allowed the SA government to avoid its own responsibilities, which is all the more reason for withdrawing it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    TGOHF said:



    And it dumps buses onto the increasingly-congested Milton Road for the last couple of miles into the city.


    I walk across Milton Road every morning between 7.30 and 8.30am - there is no congestion - does that count as an anecdote.

    Don't believe what you read in the Cambridge Evening Angry.

    I'm surprised. I don't have to do it that often, but when I took my car in for a service at 08.30 a fortnight ago it took me twenty-five minutes to get from the A14 junction to the Elizabeth Way roundabout. It gets worse nearer the city centre, especially just before the Viking chip shop (*)

    So much so, if I need B&Q or any of the shops at Coral Park, I drive further along the A14 and go down DItton Lane to avoid Milton Road.

    I've used the guided bus a few times, and once in the evening rush hour it was very slow as well. During the day it is much better.

    (*) Yes, I use chip shops as landmarks...
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,232
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP's policy on aid:

    "Make real and rigorous cuts in foreign aid and replace with free trade."

    http://www.ukip.org/content/ukip-policies/2553-what-we-stand-for


    I think the Tory policy is better. Focus Aid money on building stable countries with free markets which we can then trade with.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    DavidL said:

    So, if UKIP come second who is more damaged? Cameron, who in such a scenario will have lost a whole slew of seats, Clegg, whose LA base which is central to the parties' very survival and will have taken another hammering or Miliband whose party will have gained seats but will have been superseded as the principal opposition?

    I think that is quite tricky. The politics of austerity are shaking up our structures in a way we have not seen for a long time. Tim focusses on the facts that the majority of Kippers are ex tories and that they so far come from demographics the tories rely on most. These are both clearly good points but as the Italian example recently showed once the clowns get to a certain level everybody can play.

    The really interesting thing is we have at least another decade of this. No money, frustration, impotence, arguing about differences of policy that the average member of the public could never spot, alienation, anti politics. All coming to a street near you.

    Surely the LDs? If they can't hold LD/Con marginals, they've got nothing.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,198

    @NickPalmer - I think the comparison is with the 2009 total vote-shares, isn't it? In which case it is misleading, since UKIP only contested 25% of seats in 2009.

    You're right about the comparison (I think!), but in terms of vote switching (and hence seat loss) it's still relevant, surely? If UKIP intervene in a seat they didn't previously contest and their vote rises from 0 to 10%, say, then that's votes lost by the other parties in just the same way as if they're gone up from 2% to 12%. It does mean that their gain in sympathiser share is less, since some sympathisers couldn't express their opinion last time, though my recollection of 2009 is that UKIP support was negligible where they hadn't stood (that's why they didn't stand, no doubt), so 0% is probably not that far out as a baseline in those seats.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,072
    Why are Labour doing so badly among men?

    *innocent face*
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    As they say on here, anecdote alert. Judging by how much effort the LDs are putting into the Melbourn area seat, they are certain to hold it. 100+ properties with 'vote Susan van de Ven' orange LD diamonds, many on sticks. 3 different deliveries of 3 different electoral leaflets to every voter on the patch. A very hard working existing local councillor.
    If this were to be replicated wherever there is a current LD member, they'll lose no seats. Their vote will collapse where it doesn't matter to them. The Euro elections will be a very different matter, when they'll be big odds-on to finish a very poor 4th.

    If the LD vote has halved, then surely no amount of activity will save them. It's just too big a loss to mitigate.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,507
    antifrank said:

    @Socrates UKIP is a monumental protest vote, a howl of rage against the complexities of the 21st century, an expression of a recherche du temps perdu by people who would ask you to leave their homes if you suggested that they had heard of Proust. Serious political parties don't pander to a group of voters' psychiatric crises.

    But, in a democracy, the vote of a UKIP supporter counts for just as much as your own vote.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 28,507

    DavidL said:

    So, if UKIP come second who is more damaged? Cameron, who in such a scenario will have lost a whole slew of seats, Clegg, whose LA base which is central to the parties' very survival and will have taken another hammering or Miliband whose party will have gained seats but will have been superseded as the principal opposition?

    I think that is quite tricky. The politics of austerity are shaking up our structures in a way we have not seen for a long time. Tim focusses on the facts that the majority of Kippers are ex tories and that they so far come from demographics the tories rely on most. These are both clearly good points but as the Italian example recently showed once the clowns get to a certain level everybody can play.

    The really interesting thing is we have at least another decade of this. No money, frustration, impotence, arguing about differences of policy that the average member of the public could never spot, alienation, anti politics. All coming to a street near you.

    Surely the LDs? If they can't hold LD/Con marginals, they've got nothing.

    If Labour come third in the Counties, it doesn't matter all that much, given that many of Labour's better areas won't be voting tomorrow.

    For the Lib Dems to be beaten by UKIP, however, would be an awful result, given that many of the areas being contested tomorrow would be their heartlands.



  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,072
    dr_spyn said:

    PFI

    Poor Financial Incompetence - who signed that little lot off.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-22355993

    This doesn't compare apples with apples.

    For the PFI side they roll up the interest payments; for the government funded alternative they conveniently ignore them.

    (That said, PFI was over-used for projects that should have been funded directly rather than off-balance sheet)
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,198

    As they say on here, anecdote alert. Judging by how much effort the LDs are putting into the Melbourn area seat, they are certain to hold it. 100+ properties with 'vote Susan van de Ven' orange LD diamonds, many on sticks. 3 different deliveries of 3 different electoral leaflets to every voter on the patch. A very hard working existing local councillor.
    If this were to be replicated wherever there is a current LD member, they'll lose no seats. Their vote will collapse where it doesn't matter to them. The Euro elections will be a very different matter, when they'll be big odds-on to finish a very poor 4th.

    If the LD vote has halved, then surely no amount of activity will save them. It's just too big a loss to mitigate.
    I don't think it's halved in their own seats, though it's probably more thna halved in some places. In general the importance of personal votes is rising - people think all parties are pretty rubbish, so they are open to voting for individuals who they like. I'm even encountering UKIP voters who say they'll support me in 2015 if I stand - and it's hard to think of even one UKIP policy that I don't strongly oppose. Lots of voters don't see things in left-right terms or even policy terms any more - they just want to vote for people who seem reasonably in touch with them and not given to double-speak.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    Look at yesterdays Issues index.

    Mail and Express readers see immigration as more important than the economy.

    Immigration is an economic issue. If you apply for a pay rise, or a job, competition from unskilled immigrants is unwelcome.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013

    You're right about the comparison (I think!), but in terms of vote switching (and hence seat loss) it's still relevant, surely?

    In terms of seats, not necessarily. If Snodling East and Snodling West are very similar seats, and UKIP stood in one last time and came a respectable third, but didn't stand in the other, then if support levels haven't changed then the net effect of them standing in both this time is zero on seats, even though their total vote share has increased.

    What we really need is a comparison with what ComRes would have found if they'd done a similar poll, using the same methodology, in 2009. Unfortunately, they didn't.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    The wonderful thing about the "turn back the clock" slogan is that it can mean different things to different people according to their prejudices. Hippies would probably like to turn the clock back to 1969 for example, fans of New Romantic pop music to the early 1980s, or those with a nostalgia for rave parties to the 1990s. Only a minority would select the 1950s as their time-travelling destination.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 57,995
    antifrank said:

    @Socrates UKIP is a monumental protest vote, a howl of rage against the complexities of the 21st century, an expression of a recherche du temps perdu by people who would ask you to leave their homes if you suggested that they had heard of Proust. Serious political parties don't pander to a group of voters' psychiatric crises.

    I would expect you would probably never ever vote UKIP from what I can work out of your politics (I have you vaguely pinned as a classical liberal - correct me if I'm wrong), it is kind of what I meant when i posted that it was surprised me that they took more Lib Dem votes than Labour ones. 'Old' Labour votes I would have thought would be far more likely to switch to UKIP given their outlook on various issues.
    It will be interesting to see how UKIP do in the gentrified boroughs of London (Not very well I suspect) vs for instance my 'old labour' area (Considerably better)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,257
    I'd forgotten what an extraordinary world CiF is. Plus another classic "troll" ATL article by Seumas.

    guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/01/ed-miliband-tory-austerity-labour-favourite
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    JonathanD said:

    AndyJS said:

    UKIP's policy on aid:

    "Make real and rigorous cuts in foreign aid and replace with free trade."

    http://www.ukip.org/content/ukip-policies/2553-what-we-stand-for


    I think the Tory policy is better. Focus Aid money on building stable countries with free markets which we can then trade with.
    The Tory policy is to maintain trade barriers with such countries as a condition of EU membership.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,128

    antifrank said:

    @Socrates UKIP is a monumental protest vote, a howl of rage against the complexities of the 21st century, an expression of a recherche du temps perdu by people who would ask you to leave their homes if you suggested that they had heard of Proust. Serious political parties don't pander to a group of voters' psychiatric crises.

    Rubbish. That is just the arrogance of a metropolitan elitist who happens to agree with and benefits from the changes that are being perpetrated by the elite without the explicit consent of the majority of the population. It is not hankering for a lost past that drives them but dislike of the present and fear for the future.

    . The challenge for UKIP, though, is to put together a coherent set of policies that will keep on board ex-Labour voters like my FiL (who gave up on Labour after the hunting ban), while also holding on to the economically right of centre vote that is there to cultivate.

    UKIP's major obstacle is the voting system. That's what its supporters need to get really angry about.
    Only to a certain level I feel though SO, UKIP won't be winning general elections anytime soon, so their policies don't really need to be thought through in the same way as labours or the tories should/need to be. Like the lib dems, its far more important to get 'what they stand for' rather than 'what they would do in power'.

    Clearly the tories should be most worried as UKIP are their natural supporters, there is something potentially interesting which occurred to me.

    Like it or not, the 'tory' brand is damaged in a lot of seats in the north, no way to escape it. But UKIP is not. In addition there is a lot of WWC which are naturally socially conservative. If UKIP can appeal to these people, then labour will have a challenge developing in seats which they have had no challenge to before...

    We live in interesting times.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I've been out and about, so if anybody has already posted this, forgive me.

    http://twitpic.com/cnawmb

    Private Eye cover.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,072

    It appears that Conservatives in Nuneaton are using as part of their canvassing a scratch card offering an IPad as a prize , police are investigating a possible breach of the Representation Of The People Act 1983 s. 113 subsection 2

    I really dislike (not yet you) the way politicians use a complaint to the police or a police "investigation" (which is usually just 'we've had a complaint, we'll look at it) as part of the political process.

    Clearly someone has complained in this case - but the implication of your post is that the Tories have been found guilty already. It would have been fairer just to say that - highlighting the 'police investigation' implies it is more serious than it probably is.
  • JonCJonC Posts: 67

    JonC said:

    Got a UKIP leaflet - first ever I think.

    Strangely it makes no mention of immigration/barely disguised racism, just potholes and some waffle about local people power.

    My vote tomorrow still depends largely on the weather. None of the above by default/absence is still odds-on but if it's sunny I might vote against the Kippers as they get more and more unpleasant the more I find out about them.

    They are bound to do well though with the demographics in their favour, given that old people being MUCH more likely (a) to vote and (b) be a bit racist even though they wouldn't see it as that...

    How unfortunate Jon. Round here the UKIP leaflets have pictures of SS Panzergenadiers storming the town hall and promises that the London Midland Rail services will improve punctuality to a backdrop of Mussolini. Only last week Nigel Farage was personally autographing copies of Mein Kampf in Leamington Spa and regaling the town with tales of his time as a Stuka pilot over Brackley. Or maybe just the name calling has been overdone.
    Well I was expecting something along the lines of "campaign for an end to unchecked Eastern European immigration". Sorry for having rattled your cage...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    The challenge for UKIP, though, is to put together a coherent set of policies that will keep on board ex-Labour voters like my FiL (who gave up on Labour after the hunting ban), while also holding on to the economically right of centre vote that is there to cultivate.

    I think for the 2010 GE UKIP pretty much swallowed the Direct Democracy platform whole. That's mostly about increasing democratic accountability.

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/5329377/My_plan_to_rescue_Britain_in_just_12_months/

    http://www.douglascarswell.com/publications/


  • CharlesCharles Posts: 27,072
    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:



    "Whilst South Africa should be in a position to fund its own development, there remains widespread poverty and inequality, so UK aid is still a lifeline for poor people," said Emma Seery, head of development finance and public services at the charity."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22365355

    I'm not sure it's up to the British taxpayer to solve all of the problems of the world...



    I fully support UK aid being at 0.7% GDP but it should be focused at the poorest countries
    But that's a weird argument.

    Why 0.7%?

    Should we spend just enough to do what needs to be done and not a penny more? What's so magic about 0.7%?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2013
    antifrank said:

    @Socrates UKIP is a monumental protest vote, a howl of rage against the complexities of the 21st century, an expression of a recherche du temps perdu by people who would ask you to leave their homes if you suggested that they had heard of Proust. Serious political parties don't pander to a group of voters' psychiatric crises.

    There have always been a lot of people who have felt like that: the question is why is a party like UKIP suddenly becoming popular now. The answer must be because the three main parties don't even pretend to care about the anxieties of such people these days.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,232
    Socrates said:

    JonathanD said:

    AndyJS said:

    UKIP's policy on aid:

    "Make real and rigorous cuts in foreign aid and replace with free trade."

    http://www.ukip.org/content/ukip-policies/2553-what-we-stand-for


    I think the Tory policy is better. Focus Aid money on building stable countries with free markets which we can then trade with.
    The Tory policy is to maintain trade barriers with such countries as a condition of EU membership.
    Do you have any examples of these trade barriers? Of course the EU is a problem but its gradually moving in the right direction on free trade. It would be nice to snap our fingers and sort it out but that's not the reality we live in.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited May 2013
    @Slackbladder,maybe we are seeing the death nail of the tory party,it can happen,tory membership falling like a stone,ukip going up.

    It happened to the old liberal party where labour replaced them,very interesting times.

    In parts of north of England,scotland,tory brand is fatally damaged,it's like a swear word in places ;-) we may need a new party of the right.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If UKIP are clever they'll emphasise their economic liberalism to voters in the south and their social conservatism in the north. The LDs have always done the same sort of thing, putting out different messages in Tory and LD targets.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,128

    @Slackbladder,maybe we are seeing the death nail of the tory party,it can happen,tory membership falling like a stone,ukip going up.

    It happened to the old liberal party where labour replaced them,very interesting times.

    In parts of north of England,scotland,tory brand is fatally damaged,it's like a swear word in places ;-)

    If we had electoral reform (even with AV), we probably would see the tory party split into (at least) two.

    But then the same might happen with labour.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 22,257
    edited May 2013
    AndyJS said:

    antifrank said:

    @Socrates UKIP is a monumental protest vote, a howl of rage against the complexities of the 21st century, an expression of a recherche du temps perdu by people who would ask you to leave their homes if you suggested that they had heard of Proust. Serious political parties don't pander to a group of voters' psychiatric crises.

    There have always been a lot of people who have felt like that: the question is why is a party like UKIP suddenly becoming popular now. The answer must be because the three main parties don't even pretend to care about the anxieties of such people these days.
    Um, no.

    The answer is that we are being buffeted by an unusually strong and adverse wind that none of the parties can alter too much. When the three main parties are shown to be powerless, which is no reflection on their intent or actions, then people naturally enough look for an alternative.

    I don't think that's particularly incisive analysis for all that it is demonstrably the case.
  • RightChuckRightChuck Posts: 109
    tim said:

    tim said:

    @Carlotta

    Look at yesterdays Issues index.

    Mail and Express readers see immigration as more important than the economy.

    Immigration is an economic issue. If you apply for a pay rise, or a job, competition from unskilled immigrants is unwelcome.
    That's the Express/Mail readers view, and that of half of Tories no doubt.

    I'm sure they believe that immigrants have caused all the extra crime that hasn't happened too.

    Even the Labour party admits that immigration drove down wages.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,128
    AndyJS said:

    antifrank said:

    @Socrates UKIP is a monumental protest vote, a howl of rage against the complexities of the 21st century, an expression of a recherche du temps perdu by people who would ask you to leave their homes if you suggested that they had heard of Proust. Serious political parties don't pander to a group of voters' psychiatric crises.

    There have always been a lot of people who have felt like that: the question is why is a party like UKIP suddenly becoming popular now. The answer must be because the three main parties don't even pretend to care about the anxieties of such people these days.
    Its also not even just not caring about those people, it's about actually treating them with disgust (just see Rogers rants on those awful common people). When we get to a stage where 'middle class' or 'daily mail reader' is commonly used as an insult, then there's always going to be a reaction against that.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    We should give aid - if we are running a surplus.

    Would be a good way to cut benefits - we can feed African children or give millionaires winter fuel allowance - what do you want to do ?

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "Britain's oil reserves are substantial. The EU now regards those oil reserves as a 'shared EU resource'"



    !!
    The SNP advocating Better Off Out would be fun.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 5,704

    I'm a little surprised that Labour have not been examined on the claim that a decrease in VAT will pay for itself. Is there any real evidence for this? If there is, why not reduce VAT to zero and eliminate the deficit altogether?

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 33,401

    antifrank said:

    @Socrates UKIP is a monumental protest vote, a howl of rage against the complexities of the 21st century, an expression of a recherche du temps perdu by people who would ask you to leave their homes if you suggested that they had heard of Proust. Serious political parties don't pander to a group of voters' psychiatric crises.

    Rubbish. That is just the arrogance of a metropolitan elitist who happens to agree with and benefits from the changes that are being perpetrated by the elite without the explicit consent of the majority of the population. It is not hankering for a lost past that drives them but dislike of the present and fear for the future.

    . The challenge for UKIP, though, is to put together a coherent set of policies that will keep on board ex-Labour voters like my FiL (who gave up on Labour after the hunting ban), while also holding on to the economically right of centre vote that is there to cultivate.

    UKIP's major obstacle is the voting system. That's what its supporters need to get really angry about.
    Only to a certain level I feel though SO, UKIP won't be winning general elections anytime soon, so their policies don't really need to be thought through in the same way as labours or the tories should/need to be. Like the lib dems, its far more important to get 'what they stand for' rather than 'what they would do in power'.

    Clearly the tories should be most worried as UKIP are their natural supporters, there is something potentially interesting which occurred to me.

    Like it or not, the 'tory' brand is damaged in a lot of seats in the north, no way to escape it. But UKIP is not. In addition there is a lot of WWC which are naturally socially conservative. If UKIP can appeal to these people, then labour will have a challenge developing in seats which they have had no challenge to before...

    We live in interesting times.

    Socially conservative for sure, but probably most at home politically with the old centre right of the Labour Party - people like Jim Callaghan. He would have been my FiL's politician of choice: socially conservative, very pro-law and order; patriotic; communitarian; union and welfare friendly. UKIP can deliver on some of that, but not on all of it.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    JonathanD said:

    Socrates said:

    JonathanD said:

    AndyJS said:

    UKIP's policy on aid:

    "Make real and rigorous cuts in foreign aid and replace with free trade."

    http://www.ukip.org/content/ukip-policies/2553-what-we-stand-for


    I think the Tory policy is better. Focus Aid money on building stable countries with free markets which we can then trade with.
    The Tory policy is to maintain trade barriers with such countries as a condition of EU membership.
    Do you have any examples of these trade barriers? Of course the EU is a problem but its gradually moving in the right direction on free trade. It would be nice to snap our fingers and sort it out but that's not the reality we live in.
    Neighboring African countries as well as Europe could become a lucrative market for Ouedaogo and other small farmers in developing countries. But the high import taxes charged by the EU pose a major impediment to international trade.

    One particular problem is tariff escalation: Import tariffs increase the more processed a product becomes. This measure ensures that most imports to the EU are raw products like coffee, cocoa or pineapples which cannot be cultivated in Europe.

    While the import duties for unprocessed cocoa beans is rather small, the EU charges 30 percent for processed cocoa products like chocolate bars or cocoa powder, and 60 percent for some other refined products containing cocoa.


    http://www.dw.de/high-duties-keep-food-imports-from-poor-countries-out-of-europe/a-5127705

    EU tariffs on agricultural products average 18% – over four times more than charges on other goods. All EU tariffs greater than 100% relate to agricultural products, with isoglucose hit hardest by a staggering 604% duty.

    http://www.reformthecap.eu/issues/policy-instruments/tariffs
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2013
    AndyJS said:

    O/T:

    Dalrymple on second-hand bookshops:

    "Why second-hand bookshops are just my type
    As bookshops are displaced by the internet, the author of a new work on serendipity describes the joys of delving in dusty shelves "
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/books/9715377/Why-second-hand-bookshops-are-just-my-type.html

    Thanks Andy for drawing this to my attention. Although we disagree on almost everything else, I guess like me, you are an enthusiast for second hand book shops. I just love delving into these places in the hope of getting a better edition of a book already in my possession or a first edition, long looked for.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "The SNP advocating Better Off Out would be fun."

    In the 1975 referendum, the SNP were 'Better Off Out', and the Tories were 'Better Off In'. We've learned from Margaret Thatcher's shining example.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    That last site also points this out:

    Resistance by the EU to cut its agricultural tariffs has repeatedly blocked progress in the WTO’s Doha negotiations. In addition, developing countries point to EU protectionism in agriculture to justify their barriers against imports of manufactured goods and services. Removal of EU agricultural tariffs would thus be an important contribution to a more liberal world trading system, delivering great benefits not only to the EU but also in the fight against global poverty.

    Thus the argument that being part of the EU helps us negotiate better trade deals is rubbish. In fact, our inclusion in the EU adds our economic weight behind the position of refusing to bring down agricultural tariffs.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    JonathanD said:

    Socrates said:

    JonathanD said:

    AndyJS said:

    UKIP's policy on aid:

    "Make real and rigorous cuts in foreign aid and replace with free trade."

    http://www.ukip.org/content/ukip-policies/2553-what-we-stand-for


    I think the Tory policy is better. Focus Aid money on building stable countries with free markets which we can then trade with.
    The Tory policy is to maintain trade barriers with such countries as a condition of EU membership.
    Do you have any examples of these trade barriers? Of course the EU is a problem but its gradually moving in the right direction on free trade. It would be nice to snap our fingers and sort it out but that's not the reality we live in.
    Also, we could snap our fingers and sort it out if we left the EU. Incoming trade barriers can be removed unilaterally.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Just to correct distortions being circulated, it is UKIP policy to gradually phase out farming subsidies. They oppose subsidies but do not want a "sudden" loss.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Carlotta Vance! Paging Carlotta Vance!

    Could you kindly explain why only a small fraction of the datasets of the Better Together poll have been posted on the YouGov website? Where, for instance, is the 'would the currency issue make you more/less likely to vote for independence' question? Where are the Holyrood/Westminster voting intention questions? Why have the weighted figures for voting intention even been replaced by an 'X' on the datasets for other questions?

    What can possibly explain these mysterious omissions?

    Hmmm?

    Hmmm?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,128

    antifrank said:

    @Socrates UKIP is a monumental protest vote, a howl of rage against the complexities of the 21st century, an expression of a recherche du temps perdu by people who would ask you to leave their homes if you suggested that they had heard of Proust. Serious political parties don't pander to a group of voters' psychiatric crises.

    Rubbish. That is just the arrogance of a metropolitan elitist who happens to agree with and benefits from the changes that are being perpetrated by the elite without the explicit consent of the majority of the population. It is not hankering for a lost past that drives them but dislike of the present and fear for the future.

    . The challenge for UKIP, though, is to put together a coherent set of policies that will keep on board ex-Labour voters like my FiL (who gave up on Labour after the hunting ban), while also holding on to the economically right of centre vote that is there to cultivate.

    UKIP's major obstacle is the voting system. That's what its supporters need to get really angry about.
    Only to a certain level I feel though SO, UKIP won't be winning general elections anytime soon, so their policies don't really need to be thought through in the same way as labours or the tories should/need to be. Like the lib dems, its far more important to get 'what they stand for' rather than 'what they would do in power'.

    Clearly the tories should be most worried as UKIP are their natural supporters, there is something potentially interesting which occurred to me.

    Like it or not, the 'tory' brand is damaged in a lot of seats in the north, no way to escape it. But UKIP is not. In addition there is a lot of WWC which are naturally socially conservative. If UKIP can appeal to these people, then labour will have a challenge developing in seats which they have had no challenge to before...

    We live in interesting times.

    Socially conservative for sure, but probably most at home politically with the old centre right of the Labour Party - people like Jim Callaghan. He would have been my FiL's politician of choice: socially conservative, very pro-law and order; patriotic; communitarian; union and welfare friendly. UKIP can deliver on some of that, but not on all of it.

    As another poster said, they need to learn the trick of appearing to be different things to different people as the lib dems did. They could play the golf blazer types in the south, with trying to appeal to the WWC in the north. Whether they can do that or not is another matter, but there are shared values amongst them.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,533
    Socrates said:

    Also, we could snap our fingers and sort it out if we left the EU. Incoming trade barriers can be removed unilaterally.

    This is where I part company with Socrates on the likely effect of Britain leaving the EU. He thinks an independent UK would be all "Great, bold, open trading nation". I think it would more like, "This is a local shop for local people, nothing for you here".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TimGattITV: This is v sad: comedian @SusanCalman is hounded by online abuse after satricising Scottish independence debate http://bit.ly/18ox3ze
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    ScottP -

    "@TimGattITV: This is v sad: comedian @SusanCalman is hounded by online abuse after satricising Scottish independence debate"

    It would indeed be sad if there was even the slightest scrap of evidence that it was true -

    "All the coverage was based on a blog by Susan Calman complaining about the reaction to her News Quiz appearance. But the odd, and new, thing about the latest terrible cybernat “outrage” is that absolutely none of the coverage actually quoted or sourced any of the alleged abuse. Calman herself said only this:

    “I’ve been told that someone has written a blog which is pretty abusive towards me after my performance on News Quiz (there’s probably more than one, no need to point them out to me). I haven’t looked for it, and won’t.”

    She’s been TOLD that someone wrote a nasty blog, which she hasn’t read. Crivvens, hold the front pages! Every single atom of the media hype that’s been hastily whipped up appears to be based on a blog whose very existence is only a rumour, and whose subject definitely hasn’t seen it either way...

    Ms Calman does also make vague reference to being accused of racism (gosh, how awful – we can understand why the Scotsman would be against that sort of thing) and in one instance having a single swearword directed at her, though again there are no actual quotes or links to the alleged insults. We’re still not sure that would qualify as “bullying”, a “shit-storm of aggression” or a “barrage of abuse”.

    (She also speaks rather obliquely of “death threats (real or otherwise)” without actually saying that she’d received any, though that didn’t stop the Scotsman blaring them across its story as a fact.)

    We spent some of last night and a chunk of this morning trying to find this alleged “abusive blog”, or indeed anything that would constitute any of the descriptions used in the media. We’ve had no luck. If anyone can direct us to it, we’d be most grateful. Because otherwise, it would start to look awfully like an orchestrated smear campaign based entirely on a hypothetical situation."


    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-phantom-menace/
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Also, we could snap our fingers and sort it out if we left the EU. Incoming trade barriers can be removed unilaterally.

    This is where I part company with Socrates on the likely effect of Britain leaving the EU. He thinks an independent UK would be all "Great, bold, open trading nation". I think it would more like, "This is a local shop for local people, nothing for you here".
    Which of the four largest parties would be championing this protectionist position? All four are pro-free trade in my experience. Among the public, support for free trade is markedly higher in the UK than in other countries. I believe the Economist once included a poll that showed 70%+ of Britons supported free trade, higher than even the US. Unfortunately I can't find it now.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    @Garethofthevale - Curious logic. How would a vote for UKIP discourage the Tory right from setting themselves up as another opposition? It would have precisely the opposite effect, wouldn't it?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,913
    JonathanD said:




    Do you have any examples of these trade barriers? Of course the EU is a problem but its gradually moving in the right direction on free trade. It would be nice to snap our fingers and sort it out but that's not the reality we live in.

    Actually according to the institute of Economic Affairs its not. moving in the right direction at all.

    http://www.iea.org.uk/blog/eu-trade-plans-will-increase-protectionism-and-hinder-development

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "Although we say that no one cares about this stuff, incredibly given everything that is thrown at them, some people are still prepared to give up their time to join a political party and take part. Even though the numbers have diminished there are still tens of thousands of Britons who do think it worthwhile, thank goodness.

    The country desperately needs much, much more of this mocked activity. It needs bigger and more open political parties that people might, once again, feel it is worth joining."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/iainmartin1/100214763/lets-hear-it-for-britains-political-parties/
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    Ah, I see that Anthony Wells has corrected his mistake in line with the point I've made about the number of seats being contested by UKIP (he was previously suggesting the ComRes poll would mean UKIP winning 250+ seats):

    UPDATE: Peter Kellner and I have been pondering the number of UKIP seat gains if they do get 22% (the joys of the YouGov office on a morning before an election!) and how on earth you model gains when they are tripling the number of seats they contest. It’s very difficult, but I suspect I have overestimated it a bit… though even assuming a higher base level of support in the areas they didn’t contest in 2009 (and therefore a lower swing in the seats they did) if they do get 22% they should still be looking at well over 100 seats. Suffice to say, how many seats UKIP will get on Thursday is still incredibly hard to predict.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7372/comment-page-2#comments
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    tim said:

    Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh
    .@marthakearney is right, Cam refuses to let word 'UKIP' pass his lips. But was that talk re 'split' families, a hint of UKIP in Cam family?

    Nicholas Watt ‏@nicholaswatt
    Sounds like @David_Cameron has a close relative who doesn't vote Tory @Marthakearney

    Is Dave's mum a Kipper?

    My first thought was it was a reference to Priti Patel.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,533
    edited May 2013
    Socrates said:

    Which of the four largest parties would be championing this protectionist position? All four are pro-free trade in my experience. Among the public, support for free trade is markedly higher in the UK than in other countries. I believe the Economist once included a poll that showed 70%+ of Britons supported free trade, higher than even the US. Unfortunately I can't find it now.

    Protectionism isn't done in the name of protectionism - you support free trade in the abstract, but you have to be seen sticking up for local workers and businesses in the particulars, and that means doing whatever you can to keep out foreign products.

    Sometimes it would be to save British jobs, sometimes it would be to help British companies (they donate more than foreign companies), sometimes it would be ostensibly about environmental standards or workers' rights, other times it would be about the principle of fairness.

    All of the British parties would play this game, especially in opposition, where all international agreements are a betrayal and your guy could always have got a better deal than their guy.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I've thought about voting UKIP but it would be a bit illogical since I disagree with rather a lot of their policies, on things like wind turbines, house building, HS2.
  • @RichardNabavi - yes I suppose that is how it might pan out based on the erroneous conclusion that all those UKIP voters will go Conservative if only Cameron moves further to the right. It won't work for voters like me who have switched from LD/Lab.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013

    Socrates said:

    Which of the four largest parties would be championing this protectionist position? All four are pro-free trade in my experience. Among the public, support for free trade is markedly higher in the UK than in other countries. I believe the Economist once included a poll that showed 70%+ of Britons supported free trade, higher than even the US. Unfortunately I can't find it now.

    Protectionism isn't done in the name of protectionism - you support free trade in the abstract, but you have to be seen sticking up for local workers and businesses in the particulars, and that means doing whatever you can to keep out foreign products.

    Sometimes it would be to save British jobs, sometimes it would be to help British companies (they donate more than foreign companies), sometimes it would be ostensibly about environmental standards or workers' rights, other times it would be about the principle of fairness.

    All of the British parties would play this game, especially in opposition, where all international agreements are a betrayal and your guy could always have got a better deal than their guy.
    How come it doesn't work this way in the other countries most similar to us: the USA, Australia and Canada, who are going round signing free trade deals all the time? If anything, the reverse is true. People like the Democrats regularly bash on free trade deals, yet support them all the same. We currently have the most dysfunctional Congress in history, yet they're still signing deals with Korea, Panama, Colombia etc.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,696
    @JamesKelly

    Susan Calman tweets:

    @WingsScotland Don't you dare suggest I'd make this up. Do you want to know how many times I've cried in the last week?


    @WingsScotland Then you are the vilest possible person.


    Classy......
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,128

    @JamesKelly

    Susan Calman tweets:

    @WingsScotland Don't you dare suggest I'd make this up. Do you want to know how many times I've cried in the last week?


    @WingsScotland Then you are the vilest possible person.


    Classy......

    She clearly rued the day...
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Carlotta - Classy or not, he's bang on the money in his article. She's talking about something she HASN'T READ.

    Did you miss my other question, by the way? Why have YouGov failed to put up the full datasets of the Better Together poll?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 6,357
    Afternoon all :)

    I'm tempted to say none of this matters very much. I even wonder if UKIP as a political force will still be around when these seats are re-contested. This (and next year's EPP elections) are, I think, the highwater mark for Farage.

    In 2015, if Labour win, what will UKIP be able to do? Ed Milliband won't be interested and Farage will likely be facing a vengeful Conservative Party who may well blame him for their defeat and be able, in Opposition, to steal UKIP policies and target him and his Councillors ruthlessly in local campaigning.

    Let's say Cameron prevails in 2015. Presumably, unless he really is going to welch on the referendum, there will be some form of In/Out referendum on EU membership. IF we vote to stay In, what becomes of UKIP? If we vote to come out of the EU, equally, what then? The mainstream parties will adapt to a post-EU world and may even steal some of UKIP's policies. Wouldn't UKIP supporters then be able to return to their previous allegiances?

    I simply can't see a long-term political future for UKIP unless Cameron reneges on his referendum deal post-2015 which would, I imagine, cause a ruction or two in Conservative ranks.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Oh dear, Carlotta. Having carefully gone through the tweets you've just quoted, it transpires that WingsScotland did not say "then you are the vilest possible person" to Susan Calman. In fact, Susan Calman SAID IT TO HIM.

    Would you care to apologise for what I will generously assume to be an inadvertent error?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 13,533
    Socrates said:

    How come it doesn't work this way in the other countries most similar to us: the USA, Australia and Canada, who are going round signing free trade deals all the time?

    They share a language, but they're not that similar; They're growing economies founded on immigration, while the UK is a gently declining former imperial power.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I'm tempted to say none of this matters very much. I even wonder if UKIP as a political force will still be around when these seats are re-contested. This (and next year's EPP elections) are, I think, the highwater mark for Farage.

    In 2015, if Labour win, what will UKIP be able to do? Ed Milliband won't be interested and Farage will likely be facing a vengeful Conservative Party who may well blame him for their defeat and be able, in Opposition, to steal UKIP policies and target him and his Councillors ruthlessly in local campaigning.

    Let's say Cameron prevails in 2015. Presumably, unless he really is going to welch on the referendum, there will be some form of In/Out referendum on EU membership. IF we vote to stay In, what becomes of UKIP? If we vote to come out of the EU, equally, what then? The mainstream parties will adapt to a post-EU world and may even steal some of UKIP's policies. Wouldn't UKIP supporters then be able to return to their previous allegiances?

    I simply can't see a long-term political future for UKIP unless Cameron reneges on his referendum deal post-2015 which would, I imagine, cause a ruction or two in Conservative ranks.

    If next year's EPP elections is UKIP's high water mark, that will coincide with the local elections where the majority of the LD's remaining local government base are up for re-election.

    Will the LDs as a political force, still be around when these seats are re-contested?

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,286
    Fat_Steve said:

    Ed Millibands problem with men is pretty clear. What causes that?

    I asked that question around the office.

    The kindest reply was that he was an idiot.

    Lets just say there was much piss taking at his expense.

    Not seen as serious at all.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    And the good news doesn't even stop coming for council elections

    Manufacturing has been a weak spot in the early stages of the current economic recovery, yet Markit's PMIs for April, released this morning, show that the sector is on the up if not yet fully recovered.

    The Markit Index rose from 48.6 to 49.8 on the month, with survey participants reporting both orders and output up. This compares with contractions reported in February and March.

    Employment in the manufacturing sector has also been falling this year but was near level in April again indicating stabilisation in the sector and the move towards a positive trend.

    It may not yet be a quick march of the makers, but the infantry battalion is now moving forward under General Osborne's command.

    No time to be caught kipping in the ranks.
  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    edited May 2013

    @JamesKelly

    Susan Calman tweets:

    @WingsScotland Don't you dare suggest I'd make this up. Do you want to know how many times I've cried in the last week?


    @WingsScotland Then you are the vilest possible person.


    Classy......

    She clearly rued the day...
    One wonders if the tweets can be provided, many have tried but none appear to be forthcoming. Important if one makes accusations that got the front pages to back them up. Hearsay needs to be confirmed and clarified, if it happened then it is wrong, and at this stage it does appear to need to be clarified.
    If the media took the same interest on negativity from other people who had a different political viewpoint it would be good as well.
    If the blog she did not read at least until now (but rails against it as if she had) has not been rude then she needs to apologise.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I'm tempted to say none of this matters very much. I even wonder if UKIP as a political force will still be around when these seats are re-contested. This (and next year's EPP elections) are, I think, the highwater mark for Farage.

    In 2015, if Labour win, what will UKIP be able to do? Ed Milliband won't be interested and Farage will likely be facing a vengeful Conservative Party who may well blame him for their defeat and be able, in Opposition, to steal UKIP policies and target him and his Councillors ruthlessly in local campaigning.

    Let's say Cameron prevails in 2015. Presumably, unless he really is going to welch on the referendum, there will be some form of In/Out referendum on EU membership. IF we vote to stay In, what becomes of UKIP? If we vote to come out of the EU, equally, what then? The mainstream parties will adapt to a post-EU world and may even steal some of UKIP's policies. Wouldn't UKIP supporters then be able to return to their previous allegiances?

    I simply can't see a long-term political future for UKIP unless Cameron reneges on his referendum deal post-2015 which would, I imagine, cause a ruction or two in Conservative ranks.

    If next year's EPP elections is UKIP's high water mark, that will coincide with the local elections where the majority of the LD's remaining local government base are up for re-election.

    Will the LDs as a political force, still be around when these seats are re-contested?

    Stodge, you are being, for want of an earthier word, stodgy. Trouble is that you refuse to face the possibility that UKIP will succeed in it's endeavours and eventually replace one of the existing parties. You are terribly afraid it may be your's. Stiff upper lip, old man!

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,158
    @Pulpstar I would have voted UKIP in Eastleigh, had I had the vote there, for the sheer devilment of it. It would, however, have had absolutely nothing to do with UKIP itself.

    My specific point, which only tim seems to have noticed, is that the Conservatives cannot peddle a fantasy half as effectively as UKIP, so they shouldn't try. Instead, they should concentrate on the reality, which is that UKIP's policies are ridiculous, internally completely incoherent and that any sensible voter would run a mile from letting them have any influence over the governance of this country.

    I'm not going to pretend that if that makes some people's blood boil, I'm sorry. I'm not. UKIP isn't so much a wasted vote as a crazed vote.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    edited May 2013
    "One wonders if the tweets can be provided, many have tried but none appear to be forthcoming. Important if one makes accusations that hot the front pages to back them up."

    Susan Calman actually said she was about to delete her Twitter account earlier (before predictably deciding against it). If what's been said to her this morning has been so ghastly you'd think someone might be able to find some examples, but it seems that what has upset her is someone simply wanting to see the evidence of her last claim of being abused. Wouldn't it have been simpler for her to provide that evidence?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,696
    @JamesKelly

    Not my fault you can't read tweets - it is clear that the tweets were from Calman to @Wings.

    Meanwhile more Scottish Separatist separations over separate currency:

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/canavan-and-salmond-at-odds-over-creation-of-new-currency.20948527


    THE chairman of the pro-independence Yes Scotland campaign has put himself on a collision course with Alex Salmond after calling for a new currency to be created if Scots opt to leave the UK.
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "Not my fault you can't read tweets - it is clear that the tweets were from Calman to @Wings."

    Which is exactly what I said! What on earth was the point you were making then?

    By the way, Dennis Canavan is not a "separatist". Neither is Alex Salmond.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    One for antifrank.

    The All-England Summarise Proust Competition

    The winner would certainly meet with UKIP approval.

  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    Oh, and Carlotta - at the third time of asking - why have the full datasets of the Better Together poll not been published on the YouGov website?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013

    Socrates said:

    How come it doesn't work this way in the other countries most similar to us: the USA, Australia and Canada, who are going round signing free trade deals all the time?

    They share a language, but they're not that similar; They're growing economies founded on immigration, while the UK is a gently declining former imperial power.
    They are very similar in culture and, in the cases of Australia and Canada, governance structures. No one under 50 has actual memory of Empire, and we've also had huge amounts of immigration. As I've also mentioned, support for free trade polled the highest in a whole bunch of countries polled by the Economist. As someone that has lived in both the UK and the USA, I can definitely confirm that criticism of international trade is a much more frequently heard thing in the US. The idea that an independent Britain would be more protectionist than not only Australia, Canada, the USA but an EU where France is a leading influence is laughable.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 38,696


    By the way, Dennis Canavan is not a "separatist". Neither is Alex Salmond.

    They are separate on a separate currency....
  • JamesKellyJamesKelly Posts: 1,348
    "They are separate on a separate currency...."

    Does a belief in a "separate" UK currency make David Cameron a "separatist"? I think it must do.

    Now, Carlotta. FOURTH time of asking. Why are the full datasets from the Better Together poll so...how can I put this..."separate" from the YouGov website?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    antifrank said:

    @Pulpstar I would have voted UKIP in Eastleigh, had I had the vote there, for the sheer devilment of it. It would, however, have had absolutely nothing to do with UKIP itself.

    My specific point, which only tim seems to have noticed, is that the Conservatives cannot peddle a fantasy half as effectively as UKIP, so they shouldn't try. Instead, they should concentrate on the reality, which is that UKIP's policies are ridiculous, internally completely incoherent and that any sensible voter would run a mile from letting them have any influence over the governance of this country.

    I'm not going to pretend that if that makes some people's blood boil, I'm sorry. I'm not. UKIP isn't so much a wasted vote as a crazed vote.

    Yes, how do countries like the US and Australia possibly survive with the ridiculous policies of being independent countries, punishing criminals and limiting who's allowed to enter the country. Madness, I tell you, madness.

    PS. Didn't you used to support the Euro?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    A letter in the Guardian today from Lord Toby Jug, of The Official Monster Raving Loony Party.

    He is complaining about the use of the loony term to describe UKIP. He warns against immitations. Only The OMRLP is officially Loony.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    antifrank said:

    @Pulpstar I would have voted UKIP in Eastleigh, had I had the vote there, for the sheer devilment of it. It would, however, have had absolutely nothing to do with UKIP itself.

    My specific point, which only tim seems to have noticed, is that the Conservatives cannot peddle a fantasy half as effectively as UKIP, so they shouldn't try. Instead, they should concentrate on the reality, which is that UKIP's policies are ridiculous, internally completely incoherent and that any sensible voter would run a mile from letting them have any influence over the governance of this country.

    I'm not going to pretend that if that makes some people's blood boil, I'm sorry. I'm not. UKIP isn't so much a wasted vote as a crazed vote.

    Whilst I agree entirely with your observations of UKIP, I am concerned at you instructing Proust to advocate your cause:

    Everything great in the world comes from neurotics. They alone have founded our religions and composed our masterpieces.

    Proust smells like a French kipper to me.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I'm hearing good vibes from UKIP in South Shields. What happens if UKIP get 33/35% of the vote? Too close to call I'd say. :)
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    MikeK said:

    I'm hearing good vibes from UKIP in South Shields. What happens if UKIP get 33/35% of the vote? Too close to call I'd say. :)


    Then it means Labour only get 67%/65%

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 29,158
    @Socrates No, I never supported the Euro. It's that kind of attention to detail that marks out the UKIPpers.

    On UKIP's main plank of EU membership, has UKIP yet decided whether the UK should be in the EEA (in which case its control over immigration is no greater than the government has at present) or completely outside the EEA? Or is it in the category of inconvenient points of detail that will be worked out later?

    The idea that the UK does not punish criminals is quite bonkers. And with steadily falling crime rates, the idea that we need to change tack is also bonkers. But UKIP specialise in evidence-free policy-making.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    Interesting and perhaps alarming Bloomberg news story on London property.

    Investors bought more commercial real estate in central London last year than in the rest of Britain for the first time as buyers from the U.S. to Malaysia favored the U.K. capital, according to broker DTZ (UGL).

    Investors purchased a record 16.1 billion pounds ($25 billion) of income-producing office buildings, stores, and warehouses in London last year, a 48 percent increase, compared with an 18 percent drop to 15.9 billion pounds in the rest of the U.K., according to DTZ.

    ...

    Overseas investors accounted for 16 billion pounds of U.K. commercial property purchases last year, 61 percent more than in 2011. Britain is Europe’s largest property market and the second-most liquid market in Europe after Sweden, London-based DTZ said in the report.


    And a quote of which @tim should take special note. It applies as much to social housing as it does to commercial property.

    “Good liquidity is essential,” Hans Vrensen, global head of research at DTZ, said in a statement. “If you cannot buy into and then later sell out of a market, relative value is immaterial.

    Full article: http://bloom.bg/ZkAaEn
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    I'm hearing good vibes from UKIP in South Shields. What happens if UKIP get 33/35% of the vote? Too close to call I'd say. :)


    Then it means Labour only get 67%/65%

    That means Tories, L/Dems and Others get nothing. LOL

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,198
    edited May 2013
    Charles said:

    JonathanD said:

    JonathanD said:



    "Whilst South Africa should be in a position to fund its own development, there remains widespread poverty and inequality, so UK aid is still a lifeline for poor people," said Emma Seery, head of development finance and public services at the charity."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-22365355

    I'm not sure it's up to the British taxpayer to solve all of the problems of the world...



    I fully support UK aid being at 0.7% GDP but it should be focused at the poorest countries
    But that's a weird argument.

    Why 0.7%?

    Should we spend just enough to do what needs to be done and not a penny more? What's so magic about 0.7%?
    The special thing about 0.7% is that it's an agreed UNO target which most developed countries (with the notable exception of the US) are attempting to meet. There is a good case for saying that global problems should be tackled with equal effort.

    If we spent just enough to do what needs to be done, then it ought to be much higher. There isn't a smidgeon of a reason why it's more urgent to build HS2 than spend the same money on increasing life expectancy from the low 30s by helping develop a decent water supply in the Sahel region, except that we prefer to spend 99.3% of our money on ourselves.

    My monthly column in the Nottingham Post today is vaguely relevant:

    http://www.thisisnottingham.co.uk/Nick-Palmer-Old-politics-new-world-won-t-work/story-18856708-detail/story.html#axzz2S34r7Ope

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