The crisis in Italy stems from a much smaller gathering in the Alps. Presumably if scale matters we should expect to see a huge increase in cases in 10 days time with many traceable to Cheltenham.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Like many others, my son has done a ton of work. It’s a big deal and deserves respect. For many courses there is no coursework, just mocks. It’s a big deal for a young person.
Another good reason *NOT* to shut the schools if at all possible.
In the worst case scenario, my guess would be that we run the exams but in smaller rooms, meaning the schools would be open for Years 11 and 13 only, so that we could staff it adequately.
But I stress that is a guess.
I just cannot see them being cancelled. Trying to base grades on mocks would be damn near impossible in most subjects (some schools take a month off timetable, others under a week - how do you make a valid comparison?) and Gove and Cummings in their infinite wisdom abolished coursework at GCSE.
So I posted a piece by Tyler Cowan a while back on worldviews that are affecting how people see this thing, I thought this comment was also interesting, and ties it closer to predictions and probabilities which is what we do here. (OK, mostly we bicker and call each other twats, but occasionally we do prediction stuff.)
There's a deeper issue -- it seems like there's a systemic flaw in interpretation of scientific method.
Pretty much all science is based on statistics & probability theory, and there are basically two approaches:
* frequentist approach -- observe a large number of events and look for patterns. A basic example: if you tossed a coin 10000 times and got 5500 heads and 4500 tails, then probability of getting heads is 55%. * Bayesian approach -- start with a guesstimate and update probabilities as you discover more and more data. Both approaches give the same result if you observe a large number of events.
They differ when you don't have 100% complete information -- the Bayesian approach is to update our 'best estimate' continuously, while frequentists claim it's not possible to say anything until you observed a large number of events.
It's kinda a trade-off -- frequentist approach let's you to be more reliable and less prone to fluctuations. But it doesn't allow one to quickly react to new data.
So the problem is that a large number of scientists, doctors, bureaucrats etc. follow frequentist approach.
You can see this everywhere in COVID-19 response:
* "There are more deaths from flu than from coronavirus." -- This is true, if you look at death frequencies now, more people died from flu than from COVID-19. This isn't just what Trump says, but serious doctors make similar statements. * "We do not have 100% evidence that masks helps, so we assume that masks do not help". * "We never tried large-scale quarantines, so why would we assume they work?"
These people aren't stupid. They have been told, for years and years, to use only verified stuff. So until something is 100% verified they don't want to use it.
That really is fascinating. I'd love to know why (i.e., the real reason). It's not just our standing in the world, it must be to do with London...
There is always going to need to be a certain amount of travel, and of all the european countries we seen best equipped to take the risk, I guess. It will surely push up infection rates in the vicinity of Heathrow.
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
Quite. And preventing mass gatherings is very difficult in any event if the public won't obey.
Was just watching the report on the European football fixtures on the news a few minutes ago. The decision to hold PSG vs Borussia Dortmund behind closed doors was largely negated by the decision of thousands of PSG supporters to simply form a crowd, jump up and down and let off fireworks outside the stadium instead. Some of the team even went outside to wave obligingly at them after they won. It made a mockery of the whole thing.
It was reported yesterday that they’re cancelling the St Patrick’s day parade in Boston next week. One Irish-American comedienne observed that what they were actually doing was just cancelling the security - because there wasn’t a cat in hell’s chance that thousands of Irish weren’t going to be turning up in Boston anyway.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Well, ultimately nothing happened in the Cuban Missile Crisis. I think one person was killed. So actually, you could argue the virus has already been worse than that.
No rational government anywhere can deal with the Trump Administration. We must run a million miles from it. While he is US President the US is no friend to the UK.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
I have been saying for days that Trump is an ever present threat to mankind
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
The crisis in Italy stems from a much smaller gathering in the Alps. Presumably if scale matters we should expect to see a huge increase in cases in 10 days time with many traceable to Cheltenham.
There is a probability that in 10 days time there is a huge increase in cases attributable to Cheltenham. How large this probability is depends on the number of positives at Cheltenham and on the trains there. This is a number which is unknown and can only be estimated imprecisely.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Because we now know for certain that the US response to this crisis will be entirely irrational. That makes it impossible to plan. Watch how markets react to this. Watch how governments do. Watch how people do. It is going to be utter carnage.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Because we now know for certain that the US response to this crisis will be entirely irrational. That makes it impossible to plan. Watch how markets react to this. Watch how governments do. Watch how people do. It is going to be utter carnage.
To be fair, the only strategy until a cure or vaccine is found is to control things such that we are infected in manageable batches, interspersed with shutdowns. That’s going to be bad for the economy, whatever.
From a strictly economic point of view, the quicker we get on with it the better. Allowing sporting events to go ahead, and the rest, until we reach the level of infection needed to justify shutting things down Is actually rational.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Because we now know for certain that the US response to this crisis will be entirely irrational. That makes it impossible to plan. Watch how markets react to this. Watch how governments do. Watch how people do. It is going to be utter carnage.
I am no fan of Trump and do not disagree with you, but we didn’t worry when travel to China was restricted. How is travel to Schengen (which contains Italy) the end of the world and that wasn’t?
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Most GCSE subjects no longer have significant amounts of coursework.
The crisis in Italy stems from a much smaller gathering in the Alps. Presumably if scale matters we should expect to see a huge increase in cases in 10 days time with many traceable to Cheltenham.
About a quarter to a third of the crowd at Cheltenham is from Ireland so that country will provide an additional data point.
It is time to ban travel from the US to the UK except travel from New York will still be allowed. Because we like New York, New York is not our enemy, the corona cases in New York are not really New York cases they're Seattle cases brought over to New York.
The crisis in Italy stems from a much smaller gathering in the Alps. Presumably if scale matters we should expect to see a huge increase in cases in 10 days time with many traceable to Cheltenham.
There is a probability that in 10 days time there is a huge increase in cases attributable to Cheltenham. How large this probability is depends on the number of positives at Cheltenham and on the trains there. This is a number which is unknown and can only be estimated imprecisely.
London is carrying on as normal. The CMO was in the Grafton Arms the other night.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Because we now know for certain that the US response to this crisis will be entirely irrational. That makes it impossible to plan. Watch how markets react to this. Watch how governments do. Watch how people do. It is going to be utter carnage.
I am no fan of Trump and do not disagree with you, but we didn’t worry when travel to China was restricted. How is travel to Schengen (which contains Italy) the end of the world and that wasn’t?
It isn’t. When we are in quarantine, no-one will be travelling anyway.
What is shocking is that Trump simply wants a scapegoat for what he has presumably now been told is coming to the US. Not wanting to volunteer his inept response to the initial crisis, he has decided to make the EU a scapegoat.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Because we now know for certain that the US response to this crisis will be entirely irrational. That makes it impossible to plan. Watch how markets react to this. Watch how governments do. Watch how people do. It is going to be utter carnage.
I am no fan of Trump and do not disagree with you, but we didn’t worry when travel to China was restricted. How is travel to Schengen (which contains Italy) the end of the world and that wasn’t?
It isn’t. When we are in quarantine, no-one will be travelling anyway.
What is shocking is that Trump simply wants a scapegoat for what he has presumably now been told is coming to the US. Not wanting to volunteer his inept response to the initial crisis, he has decided to make the EU a scapegoat.
This is exactly it. And the long term repercussions of that will be immense. He has, for example, almost certainly put NATO on life support, if he hasn’t killed it completely.
The crisis in Italy stems from a much smaller gathering in the Alps. Presumably if scale matters we should expect to see a huge increase in cases in 10 days time with many traceable to Cheltenham.
There is a probability that in 10 days time there is a huge increase in cases attributable to Cheltenham. How large this probability is depends on the number of positives at Cheltenham and on the trains there. This is a number which is unknown and can only be estimated imprecisely.
Given the size of the current outbreak in Madrid I would have thought there was greater potential from the match at Anfield last night, and all the travel associated with that.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Most GCSE subjects no longer have significant amounts of coursework.
Interesting, one of the major changes when GCSEs were introduced over 30 years ago was to introduce a significant course work component (most CSEs had course work, but only a few O'levels).
Is there a pedagogical reason for this long term turnaround, or was it just a Govian Wind?
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Like many others, my son has done a ton of work. It’s a big deal and deserves respect. For many courses there is no coursework, just mocks. It’s a big deal for a young person.
Another good reason *NOT* to shut the schools if at all possible.
In the worst case scenario, my guess would be that we run the exams but in smaller rooms, meaning the schools would be open for Years 11 and 13 only, so that we could staff it adequately.
But I stress that is a guess.
I just cannot see them being cancelled. Trying to base grades on mocks would be damn near impossible in most subjects (some schools take a month off timetable, others under a week - how do you make a valid comparison?) and Gove and Cummings in their infinite wisdom abolished coursework at GCSE.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Most GCSE subjects no longer have significant amounts of coursework.
Interesting, one of the major changes when GCSEs were introduced over 30 years ago was to introduce a significant course work component (most CSEs had course work, but only a few O'levels).
Is there a pedagogical reason for this long term turnaround, or was it just a Govian Wind?
Gove.
He wanted to abandon it at A-level in all subjects as well, but Cambridge University objected on the grounds that since coursework had been stiffened 15 years ago it had helped enormously with the transition to degree level. So it survived in English, History, Geography. Think it went entirely in Maths though, and in Science they have (@Fysics_Teacher please correct me if I’m wrong) supervised practicals that they then write about in the exam.
The crisis in Italy stems from a much smaller gathering in the Alps. Presumably if scale matters we should expect to see a huge increase in cases in 10 days time with many traceable to Cheltenham.
There is a probability that in 10 days time there is a huge increase in cases attributable to Cheltenham. How large this probability is depends on the number of positives at Cheltenham and on the trains there. This is a number which is unknown and can only be estimated imprecisely.
Given the size of the current outbreak in Madrid I would have thought there was greater potential from the match at Anfield last night, and all the travel associated with that.
Yes the same argument applies. The only difference is that Cheltenham lasts much longer. If a superspreader* attends Cheltenham 3 days in a row then he/she could spread to many more people than a superspreader in Anfield.
*PS I can't read the word Superspreader without thinking of the A-holes in the Underground who have to sit with their legs apart at at least a 60° angle.
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Like many others, my son has done a ton of work. It’s a big deal and deserves respect. For many courses there is no coursework, just mocks. It’s a big deal for a young person.
Another good reason *NOT* to shut the schools if at all possible.
In the worst case scenario, my guess would be that we run the exams but in smaller rooms, meaning the schools would be open for Years 11 and 13 only, so that we could staff it adequately.
But I stress that is a guess.
I just cannot see them being cancelled. Trying to base grades on mocks would be damn near impossible in most subjects (some schools take a month off timetable, others under a week - how do you make a valid comparison?) and Gove and Cummings in their infinite wisdom abolished coursework at GCSE.
And for that abolition I will always be grateful.
I’m not. It’s made managing the transition to A-level in History much harder.
There must be reasons behind this decision - it wasn't a call made by idiots - and I'm genuinely curious what it was.
Non-sarcastically, Nadine Dorries is a health minister, the Home Secretary is Priti Patel, and the Prime Minister showed up for a press conference telling people how to avoid spreading a new, highly infectious disease and decided to make up a weird, dangerous lie about shaking hands with infected people.
I know there's supposed to be expert advice involved but at this point I wouldn't like to jump to a conclusion either way about the hypothesis that it was a call made by idiots.
Pretty sure this call came from the government's advisers, who have publicly defended not bringing in social distancing measures sooner or setting out more strident advice on avoiding infection. They didn't think the evidence supported it. But I suspect a fuller picture of their reasoning isn't going to emerge until all this is over. A counter-intuitive modelling result suggesting it would be ineffective or disproportionately disruptive for whatever effect it would have, perhaps? If it turns out to have come down to a judgment call from leading social psychologists and communications experts that "average British people are too stupid and emotional to handle such advice, they'll either start a mass panic or completely ignore it - best stick to telling them to wash hands and use a tissue until that message has permeated their thick skulls" then I'll feel a bit miffed (though whether at the experts or my fellow Brits I haven't decided yet!).
Not sure how this fits into the overall picture, but with a pandemic, there are likely to be multiple waves. So, for example, if Wuhan's repressive measures were so effective that only say 20% of the population were infected before the outbreak was snuffed out there, at some point in the future, once travel and other restrictions have been relaxed, it's highly likely that there will be another outbreak amongst the 80% not yet infected. So having effective controls for the first wave at least in theory could increase your chances of a second wave.
Is there a public interest in having the first wave not limited to the full extent possible, but optimized to the capacity to care for the infected, thereby reducing the chances of later waves and limiting it to a one-and-done?
That might work on theory, but I'm doubtful anyone has the power to optimize the number of infections..
Plus delaying the spread as much as possible makes sense in terms of treatments and eventually a vaccine being developed.
Given that health services are overwhelmed when there are only a few tens of thousands of cases in a population of tens of millions, the figures don’t stack up for having ‘controlled’ outbreaks.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Most GCSE subjects no longer have significant amounts of coursework.
Interesting, one of the major changes when GCSEs were introduced over 30 years ago was to introduce a significant course work component (most CSEs had course work, but only a few O'levels).
Is there a pedagogical reason for this long term turnaround, or was it just a Govian Wind?
In the science subjects coursework grades had become a measure of how much your teacher was prepared to bend the rules in telling you what to write; we had copies of the mark scheme to look at before we briefed our students. Earlier, more open versions had become tests of how good their parents or elder siblings were at the subject.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Because we now know for certain that the US response to this crisis will be entirely irrational. That makes it impossible to plan. Watch how markets react to this. Watch how governments do. Watch how people do. It is going to be utter carnage.
I am no fan of Trump and do not disagree with you, but we didn’t worry when travel to China was restricted. How is travel to Schengen (which contains Italy) the end of the world and that wasn’t?
It isn’t. When we are in quarantine, no-one will be travelling anyway.
What is shocking is that Trump simply wants a scapegoat for what he has presumably now been told is coming to the US. Not wanting to volunteer his inept response to the initial crisis, he has decided to make the EU a scapegoat.
Presumably it's possible to fly from (say) Frnce to Canada, then cross the border. AFAIK it's relatively easy to cross at (say again) Niagara.
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Most GCSE subjects no longer have significant amounts of coursework.
Interesting, one of the major changes when GCSEs were introduced over 30 years ago was to introduce a significant course work component (most CSEs had course work, but only a few O'levels).
Is there a pedagogical reason for this long term turnaround, or was it just a Govian Wind?
In the science subjects coursework grades had become a measure of how much your teacher was prepared to bend the rules in telling you what to write; we had copies of the mark scheme to look at before we briefed our students. Earlier, more open versions had become tests of how good their parents or elder siblings were at the subject.
In other words, cheating was a major problem.
It’s quite a change. It blew my sons mind when I shared that my 1990s English GCSEs were 100% coursework.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Because we now know for certain that the US response to this crisis will be entirely irrational. That makes it impossible to plan. Watch how markets react to this. Watch how governments do. Watch how people do. It is going to be utter carnage.
To be fair, the only strategy until a cure or vaccine is found is to control things such that we are infected in manageable batches, interspersed with shutdowns. That’s going to be bad for the economy, whatever.
From a strictly economic point of view, the quicker we get on with it the better. Allowing sporting events to go ahead, and the rest, until we reach the level of infection needed to justify shutting things down Is actually rational.
Pretty certain that is utterly wrong. It is well past the stage where it needs slowing down, not speeding up, unless we are so different from Lombardy that it might as well be a different disease.
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
The word influenza gets used a lot in the doc. As has been pointed out a million times on here it is not the flu.
The doc is the UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011.
Yes, that’s the last pandemic document published by the gov emergency planning teams.
The outline of it probably forms the basis of the plan with which government are working, although they’ve not yet published something similar for this particular outbreak.
So we have COBR meeting this morning, followed by Cabinet meeting to sign off on whatever COBR agrees. Announcement around midday, to make the lunchtime news?
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Because we now know for certain that the US response to this crisis will be entirely irrational. That makes it impossible to plan. Watch how markets react to this. Watch how governments do. Watch how people do. It is going to be utter carnage.
I am no fan of Trump and do not disagree with you, but we didn’t worry when travel to China was restricted. How is travel to Schengen (which contains Italy) the end of the world and that wasn’t?
It isn’t. When we are in quarantine, no-one will be travelling anyway.
What is shocking is that Trump simply wants a scapegoat for what he has presumably now been told is coming to the US. Not wanting to volunteer his inept response to the initial crisis, he has decided to make the EU a scapegoat.
Presumably it's possible to fly from (say) Frnce to Canada, then cross the border. AFAIK it's relatively easy to cross at (say again) Niagara.
I guess it depends on which side of the river your barrel pitches up?
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Most GCSE subjects no longer have significant amounts of coursework.
Interesting, one of the major changes when GCSEs were introduced over 30 years ago was to introduce a significant course work component (most CSEs had course work, but only a few O'levels).
Is there a pedagogical reason for this long term turnaround, or was it just a Govian Wind?
Gove.
He wanted to abandon it at A-level in all subjects as well, but Cambridge University objected on the grounds that since coursework had been stiffened 15 years ago it had helped enormously with the transition to degree level. So it survived in English, History, Geography. Think it went entirely in Maths though, and in Science they have (@Fysics_Teacher please correct me if I’m wrong) supervised practicals that they then write about in the exam.
AFAIR, for A-Level maths in the Naugties instead of course work there was a modular approach so one you had passed one module, say probability, in the AS year with a B that counted towards your final grade.
I was a lecturer in a London Uni at the time, and we interviewed UCAS candidates. One candidate when struggling with a basic probability question said "I don't remember that, probability was last summer." I was not impressed!
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Like many others, my son has done a ton of work. It’s a big deal and deserves respect. For many courses there is no coursework, just mocks. It’s a big deal for a young person.
Another good reason *NOT* to shut the schools if at all possible.
If needed they could open just for examination students.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Because we now know for certain that the US response to this crisis will be entirely irrational. That makes it impossible to plan. Watch how markets react to this. Watch how governments do. Watch how people do. It is going to be utter carnage.
I am no fan of Trump and do not disagree with you, but we didn’t worry when travel to China was restricted. How is travel to Schengen (which contains Italy) the end of the world and that wasn’t?
It isn’t. When we are in quarantine, no-one will be travelling anyway.
What is shocking is that Trump simply wants a scapegoat for what he has presumably now been told is coming to the US. Not wanting to volunteer his inept response to the initial crisis, he has decided to make the EU a scapegoat.
Presumably it's possible to fly from (say) Frnce to Canada, then cross the border. AFAIK it's relatively easy to cross at (say again) Niagara.
The issue is not "flying" but "entry" - if at Niagara you admit to being in Schengen in the last 14 days they won't let you in. If you lie and say you weren't and they subsequently find out you'll be in a heap of trouble.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Most GCSE subjects no longer have significant amounts of coursework.
Interesting, one of the major changes when GCSEs were introduced over 30 years ago was to introduce a significant course work component (most CSEs had course work, but only a few O'levels).
Is there a pedagogical reason for this long term turnaround, or was it just a Govian Wind?
Gove.
He wanted to abandon it at A-level in all subjects as well, but Cambridge University objected on the grounds that since coursework had been stiffened 15 years ago it had helped enormously with the transition to degree level. So it survived in English, History, Geography. Think it went entirely in Maths though, and in Science they have (@Fysics_Teacher please correct me if I’m wrong) supervised practicals that they then write about in the exam.
You are correct about the science. Ironically the Pre-U course, which I taught for a time but is now being wound up, harked back to the old Nuffield Physics approach and had genuine investigations. They were very resource intensive though, and only really worked with the better students
Trump has essentially killed NATO. He has told the world that America does not see European countries as allies. Under his presidency, there is no way the US would defend them if they were attacked. The consequences for the UK and the EU are immense.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Like many others, my son has done a ton of work. It’s a big deal and deserves respect. For many courses there is no coursework, just mocks. It’s a big deal for a young person.
Another good reason *NOT* to shut the schools if at all possible.
If needed they could open just for examination students.
You don't think shutting classes for months beforehand would effect them taking the exams?
There must be reasons behind this decision - it wasn't a call made by idiots - and I'm genuinely curious what it was.
Non-sarcastically, Nadine Dorries is a health minister, the Home Secretary is Priti Patel, and the Prime Minister showed up for a press conference telling people how to avoid spreading a new, highly infectious disease and decided to make up a weird, dangerous lie about shaking hands with infected people.
I know there's supposed to be expert advice involved but at this point I wouldn't like to jump to a conclusion either way about the hypothesis that it was a call made by idiots.
Pretty sure this call came from the government's advisers, who have publicly defended not bringing in social distancing measures sooner or setting out more strident advice on avoiding infection. They didn't think the evidence supported it. But I suspect a fuller picture of their reasoning isn't going to emerge until all this is over. A counter-intuitive modelling result suggesting it would be ineffective or disproportionately disruptive for whatever effect it would have, perhaps? If it turns out to have come down to a judgment call from leading social psychologists and communications experts that "average British people are too stupid and emotional to handle such advice, they'll either start a mass panic or completely ignore it - best stick to telling them to wash hands and use a tissue until that message has permeated their thick skulls" then I'll feel a bit miffed (though whether at the experts or my fellow Brits I haven't decided yet!).
Not sure how this fits into the overall picture, but with a pandemic, there are likely to be multiple waves. So, for example, if Wuhan's repressive measures were so effective that only say 20% of the population were infected before the outbreak was snuffed out there, at some point in the future, once travel and other restrictions have been relaxed, it's highly likely that there will be another outbreak amongst the 80% not yet infected. So having effective controls for the first wave at least in theory could increase your chances of a second wave.
Is there a public interest in having the first wave not limited to the full extent possible, but optimized to the capacity to care for the infected, thereby reducing the chances of later waves and limiting it to a one-and-done?
That might work on theory, but I'm doubtful anyone has the power to optimize the number of infections..
Plus delaying the spread as much as possible makes sense in terms of treatments and eventually a vaccine being developed.
Given that health services are overwhelmed when there are only a few tens of thousands of cases in a population of tens of millions, the figures don’t stack up for having ‘controlled’ outbreaks.
It is nevertheless the only plan we have.
Remember that it's the number of intensive care beds that is the critical point. One in seven of those hospitalised needs intensive care, and one in five of those with the virus needs hospital. Both wild guesses based on what data we have.
That means that the theoretical maximum number of carriers we can cope with at any one time is around 150,000.
Of course there are then lots of other considerations - on the upside, can more intensive care facilities be created quickly, how often will ICU beds be re-used, etc. On the downside, what other medical caseload will hospitals have, do we have the staff (net of the infected) to maintain services, etc.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Like many others, my son has done a ton of work. It’s a big deal and deserves respect. For many courses there is no coursework, just mocks. It’s a big deal for a young person.
Another good reason *NOT* to shut the schools if at all possible.
In the worst case scenario, my guess would be that we run the exams but in smaller rooms, meaning the schools would be open for Years 11 and 13 only, so that we could staff it adequately.
But I stress that is a guess.
I just cannot see them being cancelled. Trying to base grades on mocks would be damn near impossible in most subjects (some schools take a month off timetable, others under a week - how do you make a valid comparison?) and Gove and Cummings in their infinite wisdom abolished coursework at GCSE.
And for that abolition I will always be grateful.
I’m not. It’s made managing the transition to A-level in History much harder.
Controlled assessments were daft though.
I did coursework as part of my History O-level back in the eighties. We were not allowed to type them: they had to be hand written to prove it was our own work.
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
The word influenza gets used a lot in the doc. As has been pointed out a million times on here it is not the flu.
The doc is the UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011.
And is therefore of limited relevance in its analysis.
Have you got a better viral disease pandemic preparedness strategy document to hand? And does the point not still stand that a document about influenza is allowed to mention influenza?
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
The word influenza gets used a lot in the doc. As has been pointed out a million times on here it is not the flu.
The doc is the UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011.
And is therefore of limited relevance in its analysis.
Which superior analysis do you propose?
One based on the current virus.
Taiwan, for example, had a pandemic preparation plan based on the earlier SARS virus. They seem to have reacted a great deal more promptly and effectively than us.
Rishi Sunak puts her down by saying 'with respect' I will take my instructions from the medical experts and washing your hands is very important despite Burley dishing it
Trump has essentially killed NATO. He has told the world that America does not see European countries as allies. Under his presidency, there is no way the US would defend them if they were attacked. The consequences for the UK and the EU are immense.
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Because we now know for certain that the US response to this crisis will be entirely irrational. That makes it impossible to plan. Watch how markets react to this. Watch how governments do. Watch how people do. It is going to be utter carnage.
To be fair, the only strategy until a cure or vaccine is found is to control things such that we are infected in manageable batches, interspersed with shutdowns. That’s going to be bad for the economy, whatever.
From a strictly economic point of view, the quicker we get on with it the better. Allowing sporting events to go ahead, and the rest, until we reach the level of infection needed to justify shutting things down Is actually rational.
Pretty certain that is utterly wrong. It is well past the stage where it needs slowing down, not speeding up, unless we are so different from Lombardy that it might as well be a different disease.
It might have been fairer to say that it doesn't make any difference.
There is no situation Donald Trump cannot make worse. This decision will lead to a crash in the global economy the like of which none of us have ever seen. We are now entering the most dangerous period in world history since the 1930s.
Why does the travel ban to Schengen cause the crash?
Because we now know for certain that the US response to this crisis will be entirely irrational. That makes it impossible to plan. Watch how markets react to this. Watch how governments do. Watch how people do. It is going to be utter carnage.
I am no fan of Trump and do not disagree with you, but we didn’t worry when travel to China was restricted. How is travel to Schengen (which contains Italy) the end of the world and that wasn’t?
It isn’t. When we are in quarantine, no-one will be travelling anyway.
What is shocking is that Trump simply wants a scapegoat for what he has presumably now been told is coming to the US. Not wanting to volunteer his inept response to the initial crisis, he has decided to make the EU a scapegoat.
Presumably it's possible to fly from (say) Frnce to Canada, then cross the border. AFAIK it's relatively easy to cross at (say again) Niagara.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Like many others, my son has done a ton of work. It’s a big deal and deserves respect. For many courses there is no coursework, just mocks. It’s a big deal for a young person.
Another good reason *NOT* to shut the schools if at all possible.
In the worst case scenario, my guess would be that we run the exams but in smaller rooms, meaning the schools would be open for Years 11 and 13 only, so that we could staff it adequately.
But I stress that is a guess.
I just cannot see them being cancelled. Trying to base grades on mocks would be damn near impossible in most subjects (some schools take a month off timetable, others under a week - how do you make a valid comparison?) and Gove and Cummings in their infinite wisdom abolished coursework at GCSE.
And for that abolition I will always be grateful.
I’m not. It’s made managing the transition to A-level in History much harder.
Controlled assessments were daft though.
I did coursework as part of my History O-level back in the eighties. We were not allowed to type them: they had to be hand written to prove it was our own work.
But now until they get to A-level they have no experience of writing an extended analytical answer. Which makes the first six months a right sod in upskilling them so they can get above an E.
The UK position in general is not to ban travel - airlines may choose to suspend routes, but for example Air China still has a daily 777 from Beijing to Heathrow.
Trump has essentially killed NATO. He has told the world that America does not see European countries as allies. Under his presidency, there is no way the US would defend them if they were attacked. The consequences for the UK and the EU are immense.
It is important to to fall into Trump’s trap, he gains energy and strength when the outrage from the left/liberals/foreigners goes up. I fear the European media will play into his agenda today.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Like many others, my son has done a ton of work. It’s a big deal and deserves respect. For many courses there is no coursework, just mocks. It’s a big deal for a young person.
Another good reason *NOT* to shut the schools if at all possible.
If needed they could open just for examination students.
You don't think shutting classes for months beforehand would effect them taking the exams?
No I mean schools should stay open for exam students both to prepare for and take exams - we used to do it in times of strikes.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Most GCSE subjects no longer have significant amounts of coursework.
Interesting, one of the major changes when GCSEs were introduced over 30 years ago was to introduce a significant course work component (most CSEs had course work, but only a few O'levels).
Is there a pedagogical reason for this long term turnaround, or was it just a Govian Wind?
Gove.
He wanted to abandon it at A-level in all subjects as well, but Cambridge University objected on the grounds that since coursework had been stiffened 15 years ago it had helped enormously with the transition to degree level. So it survived in English, History, Geography. Think it went entirely in Maths though, and in Science they have (@Fysics_Teacher please correct me if I’m wrong) supervised practicals that they then write about in the exam.
You are correct about the science. Ironically the Pre-U course, which I taught for a time but is now being wound up, harked back to the old Nuffield Physics approach and had genuine investigations. They were very resource intensive though, and only really worked with the better students
I studied the old Nuffield Physics syllabus, was great fun with loads of practicals and investigations rather than just learning what was in the book.
That approach gives the students a life-long interest in the subject, rather than just getting them through an exam. Or maybe that was just me. And my whole class, most of whom went on to work in technical subjects.
This man is a grade 1 nutter. November really cannot come soon enough.
His comments about the EU failure to contain the virus shows he doesn’t understand the EU clearly he thinks it is a superstate. It isn’t and reaction to the virus was, on the whole an issue for individual countries.
I can’t stop Leavers covering their eyes and blocking their ears. But the information will still be there when they stop tantrumming and face the real world.
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
The word influenza gets used a lot in the doc. As has been pointed out a million times on here it is not the flu.
The doc is the UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011.
And is therefore of limited relevance in its analysis.
Which superior analysis do you propose?
One based on the current virus.
Taiwan, for example, had a pandemic preparation plan based on the earlier SARS virus. They seem to have reacted a great deal more promptly and effectively than us.
We seem to have reacted a great deal more promptly and effectively than other nations. Our plans seem to be working while those like the Italians with other plans such as shutting things down have failed.
Big deal , who cares that some dumb film star got it, they will be able to buy the best treatment in the world.
In the AIDS epidemic it wasn't until someone famous got it - Rock Hudson - that people outside the directly affected groups really paid attention - it is to be hoped Hanks does not share Hudson's fate, but he is a diabetic.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Most GCSE subjects no longer have significant amounts of coursework.
Interesting, one of the major changes when GCSEs were introduced over 30 years ago was to introduce a significant course work component (most CSEs had course work, but only a few O'levels).
Is there a pedagogical reason for this long term turnaround, or was it just a Govian Wind?
In the science subjects coursework grades had become a measure of how much your teacher was prepared to bend the rules in telling you what to write; we had copies of the mark scheme to look at before we briefed our students. Earlier, more open versions had become tests of how good their parents or elder siblings were at the subject.
In other words, cheating was a major problem.
The problem is that schools in England put pressure on the techers to get the best possible grades for their pupils.
If that were the case in Germany the whole school system from 14 year olds onwards would collapse, because it relies on teachers sensibly assessing their own pupils.
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
The word influenza gets used a lot in the doc. As has been pointed out a million times on here it is not the flu.
The doc is the UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011.
And is therefore of limited relevance in its analysis.
Which superior analysis do you propose?
One based on the current virus.
Taiwan, for example, had a pandemic preparation plan based on the earlier SARS virus. They seem to have reacted a great deal more promptly and effectively than us.
We seem to have reacted a great deal more promptly and effectively than other nations. Our plans seem to be working while those like the Italians with other plans such as shutting things down have failed.
Big deal , who cares that some dumb film star got it, they will be able to buy the best treatment in the world.
It will be interesting to note how reactions change, once it gets to the point that those of means can’t just buy their way to the front of a long rationing queue.
I can’t stop Leavers covering their eyes and blocking their ears. But the information will still be there when they stop tantrumming and face the real world.
Your so called information is a load of projection codswallop.
The UK was supposed to suffer from not being in the Eurozone. The UK was supposed to have suffered from the uncertainty of announcing a referendum to leave the EU and voting to do so. Now the UK is supposed to suffer from having left the EU.
We'll see.
In reality so far: The UK outgrew the Eurozone in the first decade of this century. The UK outgrew the Eurozone in the second decade of this century.
What odds the UK outgrows the Eurozone in the third decade of this century?
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
The word influenza gets used a lot in the doc. As has been pointed out a million times on here it is not the flu.
The doc is the UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011.
And is therefore of limited relevance in its analysis.
Which superior analysis do you propose?
One based on the current virus.
Taiwan, for example, had a pandemic preparation plan based on the earlier SARS virus. They seem to have reacted a great deal more promptly and effectively than us.
We seem to have reacted a great deal more promptly and effectively than other nations. Our plans seem to be working while those like the Italians with other plans such as shutting things down have failed.
I can’t stop Leavers covering their eyes and blocking their ears. But the information will still be there when they stop tantrumming and face the real world.
I really think this argument is lost and the matter has moved on
I can’t stop Leavers covering their eyes and blocking their ears. But the information will still be there when they stop tantrumming and face the real world.
Your so called information is a load of projection codswallop.
The UK was supposed to suffer from not being in the Eurozone. The UK was supposed to have suffered from the uncertainty of announcing a referendum to leave the EU and voting to do so. Now the UK is supposed to suffer from having left the EU.
We'll see.
In reality so far: The UK outgrew the Eurozone in the first decade of this century. The UK outgrew the Eurozone in the second decade of this century.
What odds the UK outgrows the Eurozone in the third decade of this century?
And how has Britain done relative to comparator economies since the referendum vote, which is after all the only relevant time period for assessing this projection of the impact of Brexit?
That’s going to be this years version of asking for a second referendum, isn’t it?
They're certainly not going to have time to sort out a deal. So it does actually make sense to defer. A whole stack of things are going to be deferred this year, after all, from the Olympics through to all of our holiday plans.
What do you think the UK should be doing differently?
At the very least, the government should be (or rather, should have already done, weeks ago) asking people to consider cancelling events where a lot of people gather, and work from home where practical. This is very low cost, arguably actually productivity-positive, and countries that have had reasonable success in slowing the spread of the virus have done it.
Totally agree. A no brainer.
Allowing Cheltenham to go ahead this week, for instance, is staggeringly irresponsible.
Crazy. Football fixtures too.
Too little too late.
So what do people do? Go down the pub instead?
Restrictions on public gatherings and public transport 4.21 There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any significant effect on influenza virus transmission . Large public gatherings or crowded events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness. However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.
The word influenza gets used a lot in the doc. As has been pointed out a million times on here it is not the flu.
The doc is the UK Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Strategy 2011.
And is therefore of limited relevance in its analysis.
Which superior analysis do you propose?
One based on the current virus.
Taiwan, for example, had a pandemic preparation plan based on the earlier SARS virus. They seem to have reacted a great deal more promptly and effectively than us.
We seem to have reacted a great deal more promptly and effectively than other nations. Our plans seem to be working while those like the Italians with other plans such as shutting things down have failed.
That is no reason not to look at best practice.
We seem to be following best practice.
I’ve got a feeling that this comment will not age well.
I can’t stop Leavers covering their eyes and blocking their ears. But the information will still be there when they stop tantrumming and face the real world.
I really think this argument is lost and the matter has moved on
Damage is damage. It isn’t wished away because hopeful Leavers say so. It’s going to be pointed out repeatedly to those who have chosen to maim the country’s economy because of an irrational hatred.
This man is a grade 1 nutter. November really cannot come soon enough.
His comments about the EU failure to contain the virus shows he doesn’t understand the EU clearly he thinks it is a superstate. It isn’t and reaction to the virus was, on the whole an issue for individual countries.
Trump hates supra-national organisations. He hates the UN and he hates the EU. He hates multicountry trade deals. He wants to be able to work with individual countries, because he can leaverage the US supriority better against Belgium than against the EU.
The only exception is NATO and he has often criticised the contributions from other NATO countries.
Yes, closing schools is complicated because aside from whether the kids actually pass on the thing, the impact depends where they go instead.
"Real bad news kids, you are going to have to stay home, watch TV and play games in your room for a couple of weeks... Well make sure you have chocolate biscuits though."
"COOL!!!"
My son is doing GCSEs, this is worrying him a lot.
Exams is certainly an area where Govt. is going to have to give guidance before very long. Worst case, this year they have to scrap them and give grades based on course work to date.
2020 - the year of significant grade inflation. So what?
Like many others, my son has done a ton of work. It’s a big deal and deserves respect. For many courses there is no coursework, just mocks. It’s a big deal for a young person.
Another good reason *NOT* to shut the schools if at all possible.
In the worst case scenario, my guess would be that we run the exams but in smaller rooms, meaning the schools would be open for Years 11 and 13 only, so that we could staff it adequately.
But I stress that is a guess.
I just cannot see them being cancelled. Trying to base grades on mocks would be damn near impossible in most subjects (some schools take a month off timetable, others under a week - how do you make a valid comparison?) and Gove and Cummings in their infinite wisdom abolished coursework at GCSE.
And for that abolition I will always be grateful.
I’m not. It’s made managing the transition to A-level in History much harder.
Controlled assessments were daft though.
I did coursework as part of my History O-level back in the eighties. We were not allowed to type them: they had to be hand written to prove it was our own work.
Pray, how did that prove it was your own work? It might have proved it was your own handwriting but not much else...
Trump has essentially killed NATO. He has told the world that America does not see European countries as allies. Under his presidency, there is no way the US would defend them if they were attacked. The consequences for the UK and the EU are immense.
It is important to to fall into Trump’s trap, he gains energy and strength when the outrage from the left/liberals/foreigners goes up. I fear the European media will play into his agenda today.
There is no trap. It’s all very clear. While Trump is US President the basic premise under which NATO operates does not exist.
Comments
https://twitter.com/tufferb/status/1237809557612740610?s=21
But I stress that is a guess.
I just cannot see them being cancelled. Trying to base grades on mocks would be damn near impossible in most subjects (some schools take a month off timetable, others under a week - how do you make a valid comparison?) and Gove and Cummings in their infinite wisdom abolished coursework at GCSE.
Must say I agree that holding Cheltenham seems to be crackers. We'll see if it is in a little while.
As bad as the Cuban Missile Crisis, though?
I cannot recall anything like this in my lifetime
If Lord Byron can use air-vessel in his speculative fiction I think we are fine to use airplane.
From a strictly economic point of view, the quicker we get on with it the better. Allowing sporting events to go ahead, and the rest, until we reach the level of infection needed to justify shutting things down Is actually rational.
What is shocking is that Trump simply wants a scapegoat for what he has presumably now been told is coming to the US. Not wanting to volunteer his inept response to the initial crisis, he has decided to make the EU a scapegoat.
Is there a pedagogical reason for this long term turnaround, or was it just a Govian Wind?
“I’ve lost count of the number of people who have touched my genitals in a game of rugby”:
https://amp.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/11/danny-care-defends-joe-marler-grabbing-alun-wyn-jones-genitals-england-wales-six-nations?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter&__twitter_impression=true
He wanted to abandon it at A-level in all subjects as well, but Cambridge University objected on the grounds that since coursework had been stiffened 15 years ago it had helped enormously with the transition to degree level. So it survived in English, History, Geography. Think it went entirely in Maths though, and in Science they have (@Fysics_Teacher please correct me if I’m wrong) supervised practicals that they then write about in the exam.
The only difference is that Cheltenham lasts much longer. If a superspreader* attends Cheltenham 3 days in a row then he/she could spread to many more people than a superspreader in Anfield.
*PS I can't read the word Superspreader without thinking of the A-holes in the Underground who have to sit with their legs apart at at least a 60° angle.
Controlled assessments were daft though.
In other words, cheating was a major problem.
The outline of it probably forms the basis of the plan with which government are working, although they’ve not yet published something similar for this particular outbreak.
So we have COBR meeting this morning, followed by Cabinet meeting to sign off on whatever COBR agrees. Announcement around midday, to make the lunchtime news?
I was a lecturer in a London Uni at the time, and we interviewed UCAS candidates. One candidate when struggling with a basic probability question said "I don't remember that, probability was last summer." I was not impressed!
Remember that it's the number of intensive care beds that is the critical point. One in seven of those hospitalised needs intensive care, and one in five of those with the virus needs hospital. Both wild guesses based on what data we have.
That means that the theoretical maximum number of carriers we can cope with at any one time is around 150,000.
Of course there are then lots of other considerations - on the upside, can more intensive care facilities be created quickly, how often will ICU beds be re-used, etc. On the downside, what other medical caseload will hospitals have, do we have the staff (net of the infected) to maintain services, etc.
Taiwan, for example, had a pandemic preparation plan based on the earlier SARS virus. They seem to have reacted a great deal more promptly and effectively than us.
Rishi Sunak puts her down by saying 'with respect' I will take my instructions from the medical experts and washing your hands is very important despite Burley dishing it
Have a good morning.
That approach gives the students a life-long interest in the subject, rather than just getting them through an exam. Or maybe that was just me. And my whole class, most of whom went on to work in technical subjects.
GOP is 1.98
If that were the case in Germany the whole school system from 14 year olds onwards would collapse, because it relies on teachers sensibly assessing their own pupils.
“Oh, we all do it.”, “It was only a joke.”
Etc.
The UK was supposed to suffer from not being in the Eurozone.
The UK was supposed to have suffered from the uncertainty of announcing a referendum to leave the EU and voting to do so.
Now the UK is supposed to suffer from having left the EU.
We'll see.
In reality so far:
The UK outgrew the Eurozone in the first decade of this century.
The UK outgrew the Eurozone in the second decade of this century.
What odds the UK outgrows the Eurozone in the third decade of this century?
2025 can't come soon enough 😢
The only exception is NATO and he has often criticised the contributions from other NATO countries.