Alexandra Rojas: 'themovementthemovementthemovement'
Dems have the same problems as Labour, people who can't see the wood for the trees.
We’ll see. Give Sanders a day or so. He’s been running for the nomination for a good half decade.... Calling it quits, particularly when you’re as stubborn as he seems to be, takes some adjusting to.
I've heard a rumour that on Thursday London will be put on lockdown.
define London
I've been looking round google maps, trying to see where/what would be easiest to shut down. If you chose the M25 there'd be the best part of 300 roads to shut.
Zone 6 isn’t London hopefully!
I live east of the last tube station in the east, get a vote for the mayor and and quarter of a mile inside the M25... hopefully that’s not seem as the same as zones 1 & 2
I don't know how you'd quarantine inner London, way too many inter-connected roads. The practical approach is to lock it all away.
We’ll soon see. We don’t have a London postcode or phone number. We have Essex in our address.
The reason the Italians got pushed quickly into quarantining all of Italy is that it proved impossible to police a lockdown in Lombardy only, with all the roads major and minor and myriad other transport links. London would surely be the same. If I had to try it, I’d use the North/South Circulars as the boundary, which I am sure completely encloses the cluster, close both roads down, cone off the junctions and have police cars driving round and round. Transport would be more of a problem, but the tube network is mostly inside the circulars (where not, lines could be terminated early) and mainline trains would run occasionally and be policed for whatever exceptions are allowed.
If the outbreak happens to be confined to the very centre of London, you could try the same with the inner ring road. But my guess is that it goes wider.
Meanwhile a report from someone in Maryland, people are apparently “scrabbling to buy bread and bog roll as if the world is about to end”. So any complacency about the virus there is evaporating fast.
I am closing my new sell positions on the Dow from yesterday, which is again meeting resistance at 20000. I sense markets are paused, with all the government money (or promise of such) swilling around. We may be at a temporary bottom, which will break downwards if London or New York heads the Italian way, or upward if there is vaccine or cure news.
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
I think you are right that the point would come where young people would decide a week in bed with a temperature is a better price than a year stuck indoors
I've heard a rumour that on Thursday London will be put on lockdown.
define London
I've been looking round google maps, trying to see where/what would be easiest to shut down. If you chose the M25 there'd be the best part of 300 roads to shut.
Zone 6 isn’t London hopefully!
I live east of the last tube station in the east, get a vote for the mayor and and quarter of a mile inside the M25... hopefully that’s not seem as the same as zones 1 & 2
I don't know how you'd quarantine inner London, way too many inter-connected roads. The practical approach is to lock it all away.
I've heard a rumour that on Thursday London will be put on lockdown.
define London
I've been looking round google maps, trying to see where/what would be easiest to shut down. If you chose the M25 there'd be the best part of 300 roads to shut.
Zone 6 isn’t London hopefully!
I live east of the last tube station in the east, get a vote for the mayor and a quarter of a mile inside the M25... hopefully that’s not seen as the same as zones 1 & 2
Hopefully we can rely on Londons not to be complete idiots and not try to circumvent measures to save tens of thousands of lives.
Though that may be a bit of an ask.
I would say the main thing is to completely and entirely close down the public transport. Let them use cars, pushbikes or ubers.
The reason the Italians got pushed quickly into quarantining all of Italy is that it proved impossible to police a lockdown in Lombardy only, with all the roads major and minor and myriad other transport links. London would surely be the same. If I had to try it, I’d use the North/South Circulars as the boundary, which I am sure completely encloses the cluster, close both roads down, cone off the junctions and have police cars driving round and round. Transport would be more of a problem, but the tube network is mostly inside the circulars (where not, lines could be terminated early) and mainline trains would run occasionally and be policed for whatever exceptions are allowed.
If the outbreak happens to be confined to the very centre of London, you could try the same with the inner ring road. But my guess is that it goes wider.
Meanwhile a report from someone in Maryland, people are apparently “scrabbling to buy bread and bog roll as if the world is about to end”. So any complacency about the virus there is evaporating fast.
I am closing my new sell positions on the Dow from yesterday, which is again meeting resistance at 20000. I sense markets are paused, with all the government money (or promise of such) swilling around. We may be at a temporary bottom, which will break downwards if London or New York heads the Italian way, or upward if there is vaccine or cure news.
These are the top 20 or so areas on the confirmed cases list for the UK. Multiply by 20 or so for a guestimate of real cases:
Hampshire: 69 Southwark: 58 Westminster: 58 Kensington and Chelsea: 49 Lambeth: 43 Hertfordshire: 36 Surrey: 30 Oxfordshire: 25 Barnet: 24 Brent: 24 Devon: 24 Bromley: 23 Hammersmith and Fulham: 23 Tower Hamlets: 23 Buckinghamshire: 23 Hackney and City of London: 22 Cumbria: 22 Ealing: 21 Wandsworth: 21 Essex: 21
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
I think you are right that the point would come where young people would decide a week in bed with a temperature is a better price than a year stuck indoors
Morning all.
Something I don't understand about this. If you have had the virus and IF it's the case that you can't become re-infected, then surely you can go about normal life? Will we have a country divided between those who've survived it and those who've yet to get it?
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
I think you are right that the point would come where young people would decide a week in bed with a temperature is a better price than a year stuck indoors
Morning all.
Something I don't understand about this. If you have had the virus and IF it's the case that you can't become re-infected, then surely you can go about normal life? Will we have a country divided between those who've survived it and those who've yet to get it?
Maybe we’ll end up with a special mark in people’s passports to show they have the antibodies and can travel freely.
We know Boris's dad is stupid so what ............
Yeah but on the other hand Boris's dad's son, in a mirror image of his cake policy, is against going to pubs but also against pubs closing. Ditto theatres.
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
I think you are right that the point would come where young people would decide a week in bed with a temperature is a better price than a year stuck indoors
Morning all.
Something I don't understand about this. If you have had the virus and IF it's the case that you can't become re-infected, then surely you can go about normal life? Will we have a country divided between those who've survived it and those who've yet to get it?
Maybe we’ll end up with a special mark in people’s passports to show they have the antibodies and can travel freely.
The view seems to be forming that immunity may only last a year or two. Not that we know for sure.
The reason the Italians got pushed quickly into quarantining all of Italy is that it proved impossible to police a lockdown in Lombardy only, with all the roads major and minor and myriad other transport links. London would surely be the same. If I had to try it, I’d use the North/South Circulars as the boundary, which I am sure completely encloses the cluster, close both roads down, cone off the junctions and have police cars driving round and round. Transport would be more of a problem, but the tube network is mostly inside the circulars (where not, lines could be terminated early) and mainline trains would run occasionally and be policed for whatever exceptions are allowed.
If the outbreak happens to be confined to the very centre of London, you could try the same with the inner ring road. But my guess is that it goes wider.
Meanwhile a report from someone in Maryland, people are apparently “scrabbling to buy bread and bog roll as if the world is about to end”. So any complacency about the virus there is evaporating fast.
I am closing my new sell positions on the Dow from yesterday, which is again meeting resistance at 20000. I sense markets are paused, with all the government money (or promise of such) swilling around. We may be at a temporary bottom, which will break downwards if London or New York heads the Italian way, or upward if there is vaccine or cure news.
These are the top 20 or so areas on the confirmed cases list for the UK. Multiply by 20 or so for a guestimate of real cases:
Hampshire: 69 Southwark: 58 Westminster: 58 Kensington and Chelsea: 49 Lambeth: 43 Hertfordshire: 36 Surrey: 30 Oxfordshire: 25 Barnet: 24 Brent: 24 Devon: 24 Bromley: 23 Hammersmith and Fulham: 23 Tower Hamlets: 23 Buckinghamshire: 23 Hackney and City of London: 22 Cumbria: 22 Ealing: 21 Wandsworth: 21 Essex: 21
Well over 300 (=6000) inside the London ‘Circulars, there
And an update on the markets, and an illustration of the perils of waking up in the night and making betting decisions, shortly after 5 am the Dow futures took a plunge for some reason, and the limit down has been triggered again and trading suspended.
Anything in the overnight news?
Maybe the 20000 bottom won’t last as long as I had been thinking.
I've heard a rumour that on Thursday London will be put on lockdown.
define London
I've been looking round google maps, trying to see where/what would be easiest to shut down. If you chose the M25 there'd be the best part of 300 roads to shut.
Zone 6 isn’t London hopefully!
I live east of the last tube station in the east, get a vote for the mayor and a quarter of a mile inside the M25... hopefully that’s not seen as the same as zones 1 & 2
Hopefully we can rely on Londons not to be complete idiots and not try to circumvent measures to save tens of thousands of lives.
Though that may be a bit of an ask.
I would say the main thing is to completely and entirely close down the public transport. Let them use cars, pushbikes or ubers.
I have a friend with a second home down these parts and know she is planning to leave London at the weekend. Pretty sure she’d be out sooner if a lockdown looks imminent.
I think in this crisis we may be seeing peak London.
The reason the Italians got pushed quickly into quarantining all of Italy is that it proved impossible to police a lockdown in Lombardy only, with all the roads major and minor and myriad other transport links. London would surely be the same. If I had to try it, I’d use the North/South Circulars as the boundary, which I am sure completely encloses the cluster, close both roads down, cone off the junctions and have police cars driving round and round. Transport would be more of a problem, but the tube network is mostly inside the circulars (where not, lines could be terminated early) and mainline trains would run occasionally and be policed for whatever exceptions are allowed.
If the outbreak happens to be confined to the very centre of London, you could try the same with the inner ring road. But my guess is that it goes wider.
Meanwhile a report from someone in Maryland, people are apparently “scrabbling to buy bread and bog roll as if the world is about to end”. So any complacency about the virus there is evaporating fast.
I am closing my new sell positions on the Dow from yesterday, which is again meeting resistance at 20000. I sense markets are paused, with all the government money (or promise of such) swilling around. We may be at a temporary bottom, which will break downwards if London or New York heads the Italian way, or upward if there is vaccine or cure news.
These are the top 20 or so areas on the confirmed cases list for the UK. Multiply by 20 or so for a guestimate of real cases:
Hampshire: 69 Southwark: 58 Westminster: 58 Kensington and Chelsea: 49 Lambeth: 43 Hertfordshire: 36 Surrey: 30 Oxfordshire: 25 Barnet: 24 Brent: 24 Devon: 24 Bromley: 23 Hammersmith and Fulham: 23 Tower Hamlets: 23 Buckinghamshire: 23 Hackney and City of London: 22 Cumbria: 22 Ealing: 21 Wandsworth: 21 Essex: 21
I'm in Hampshire, which is slightly concerning.
Imagining there are actually 500-700 cases here now.
Trump gets 44% of the vote whatever he does, we know that. The Democrat will get more, we know that too. But the presidential election will only really take place in about 10 key states. And the likelihood is that voter suppression + the culture wars means Trump will win the ones he needs and be re-elected. The US will continue to fragment, weaken and isolate. The task for the world is to find a way of bypassing it as much as possible.
And an update on the markets, and an illustration of the perils of waking up in the night and making betting decisions, shortly after 5 am the Dow futures took a plunge for some reason, and the limit down has been triggered again and trading suspended.
Anything in the overnight news?
Maybe the 20000 bottom won’t last as long as I had been thinking.
Bernie is still inexplicably below 100.
Wouldn't surprise me if even he's considering withdrawing now.
And an update on the markets, and an illustration of the perils of waking up in the night and making betting decisions, shortly after 5 am the Dow futures took a plunge for some reason, and the limit down has been triggered again and trading suspended.
Anything in the overnight news?
Maybe the 20000 bottom won’t last as long as I had been thinking.
Markets are beginning to get their heads round how long it will be before vaccines and treatments appear, and therefore how long the crisis is going to last. A year, at least. Everything is going to change fundamentally. There will be no return to how things used to be. How do you price that? You can’t. Things are going to be all over the place for the forseeable future.
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
The reason the Italians got pushed quickly into quarantining all of Italy is that it proved impossible to police a lockdown in Lombardy only, with all the roads major and minor and myriad other transport links. London would surely be the same. If I had to try it, I’d use the North/South Circulars as the boundary, which I am sure completely encloses the cluster, close both roads down, cone off the junctions and have police cars driving round and round. Transport would be more of a problem, but the tube network is mostly inside the circulars (where not, lines could be terminated early) and mainline trains would run occasionally and be policed for whatever exceptions are allowed.
If the outbreak happens to be confined to the very centre of London, you could try the same with the inner ring road. But my guess is that it goes wider.
Meanwhile a report from someone in Maryland, people are apparently “scrabbling to buy bread and bog roll as if the world is about to end”. So any complacency about the virus there is evaporating fast.
I am closing my new sell positions on the Dow from yesterday, which is again meeting resistance at 20000. I sense markets are paused, with all the government money (or promise of such) swilling around. We may be at a temporary bottom, which will break downwards if London or New York heads the Italian way, or upward if there is vaccine or cure news.
These are the top 20 or so areas on the confirmed cases list for the UK. Multiply by 20 or so for a guestimate of real cases:
Hampshire: 69 Southwark: 58 Westminster: 58 Kensington and Chelsea: 49 Lambeth: 43 Hertfordshire: 36 Surrey: 30 Oxfordshire: 25 Barnet: 24 Brent: 24 Devon: 24 Bromley: 23 Hammersmith and Fulham: 23 Tower Hamlets: 23 Buckinghamshire: 23 Hackney and City of London: 22 Cumbria: 22 Ealing: 21 Wandsworth: 21 Essex: 21
I'm in Hampshire, which is slightly concerning.
Imagining there are actually 500-700 cases here now.
One of the early cases was someone working at Southampton Hospital, which could easily have started a cluster going. Plus there’s the one in Basingstoke whose origin I don’t know.
And an update on the markets, and an illustration of the perils of waking up in the night and making betting decisions, shortly after 5 am the Dow futures took a plunge for some reason, and the limit down has been triggered again and trading suspended.
Anything in the overnight news?
Maybe the 20000 bottom won’t last as long as I had been thinking.
Markets are beginning to get their heads round how long it will be before vaccines and treatments appear, and therefore how long the crisis is going to last. A year, at least. Everything is going to change fundamentally. There will be no return to how things used to be. How do you price that? You can’t. Things are going to be all over the place for the forseeable future.
I don't think things will change "fundamentally", that's an overreaction. We're certainly living through unprecedented times but one can easily overegg it.
Remember the wise words of Field Marshall Slim: nothing is as good or as bad as it first appears.
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
I think you are right that the point would come where young people would decide a week in bed with a temperature is a better price than a year stuck indoors
Well, yes.
People aren't going to accept permanent lockdown and economic ruin.
The Government know this which is why they were trying to delay this phase as much as possible.
What I think will change after this outbreak (just as the financial system did after the financial crisis) is how businesses are both funded and insured and how the assumptions around how healthcare critical care are revised.
If there are long term economic consequences it could come from global agreement or regulation on interactions between humans and mammals for virus transmission, or nations may refuse to do trade deals with China unless they seriously restrict it.
It's possible that rules on aviation and shipping change too for future pandemic containment (although that'd still only delay rather than stop it - the black death spread globally in the 14th century just by sailing ship and people walking with horses).
And an update on the markets, and an illustration of the perils of waking up in the night and making betting decisions, shortly after 5 am the Dow futures took a plunge for some reason, and the limit down has been triggered again and trading suspended.
Anything in the overnight news?
Maybe the 20000 bottom won’t last as long as I had been thinking.
Markets are beginning to get their heads round how long it will be before vaccines and treatments appear, and therefore how long the crisis is going to last. A year, at least. Everything is going to change fundamentally. There will be no return to how things used to be. How do you price that? You can’t. Things are going to be all over the place for the forseeable future.
I don't think things will change "fundamentally", that's an overreaction. We're certainly living through unprecedented times but one can easily overegg it.
Remember the wise words of Field Marshall Slim: nothing is as good or as bad as it first appears.
We’ll see. I am not saying it will be better or worse. I am saying it will be very different. Governments will end up spending huge amounts dealing with this crisis and its aftermath. Far more than has already been announced. In and of itself that is going to have profound long-term consequences.
The reason the Italians got pushed quickly into quarantining all of Italy is that it proved impossible to police a lockdown in Lombardy only, with all the roads major and minor and myriad other transport links. London would surely be the same. If I had to try it, I’d use the North/South Circulars as the boundary, which I am sure completely encloses the cluster, close both roads down, cone off the junctions and have police cars driving round and round. Transport would be more of a problem, but the tube network is mostly inside the circulars (where not, lines could be terminated early) and mainline trains would run occasionally and be policed for whatever exceptions are allowed.
If the outbreak happens to be confined to the very centre of London, you could try the same with the inner ring road. But my guess is that it goes wider.
Meanwhile a report from someone in Maryland, people are apparently “scrabbling to buy bread and bog roll as if the world is about to end”. So any complacency about the virus there is evaporating fast.
I am closing my new sell positions on the Dow from yesterday, which is again meeting resistance at 20000. I sense markets are paused, with all the government money (or promise of such) swilling around. We may be at a temporary bottom, which will break downwards if London or New York heads the Italian way, or upward if there is vaccine or cure news.
These are the top 20 or so areas on the confirmed cases list for the UK. Multiply by 20 or so for a guestimate of real cases:
Hampshire: 69 Southwark: 58 Westminster: 58 Kensington and Chelsea: 49 Lambeth: 43 Hertfordshire: 36 Surrey: 30 Oxfordshire: 25 Barnet: 24 Brent: 24 Devon: 24 Bromley: 23 Hammersmith and Fulham: 23 Tower Hamlets: 23 Buckinghamshire: 23 Hackney and City of London: 22 Cumbria: 22 Ealing: 21 Wandsworth: 21 Essex: 21
I'm in Hampshire, which is slightly concerning.
Imagining there are actually 500-700 cases here now.
What I think will change after this outbreak (just as the financial system did after the financial crisis) is how businesses are both funded and insured and how the assumptions around how healthcare critical care are revised.
If there are long term economic consequences it could come from global agreement or regulation on interactions between humans and mammals for virus transmission, or nations may refuse to do trade deals with China unless they seriously restrict it.
It's possible that rules on aviation and shipping change too for future pandemic containment (although that'd still only delay rather than stop it - the black death spread globally in the 14th century just by sailing ship and people walking with horses).
Taxes will be going up. Healthcare will become an even greater priority. My guess is that corporations and individuals are going to find it a lot harder to hide their money away.
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
I think you are right that the point would come where young people would decide a week in bed with a temperature is a better price than a year stuck indoors
Morning all.
Something I don't understand about this. If you have had the virus and IF it's the case that you can't become re-infected, then surely you can go about normal life? Will we have a country divided between those who've survived it and those who've yet to get it?
With a societal resentment building against those who can go out, party, take holidays, generally not have to give a shit.
Japanese Olympic committee deputy head tested positive. I think there's a "what are the chances" argument that even if they do a lot of international travel, if there are only the 50 cases per day that are being found yet it's showing up among bigwigs there probably is a monster testing fail.
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
The reason the Italians got pushed quickly into quarantining all of Italy is that it proved impossible to police a lockdown in Lombardy only, with all the roads major and minor and myriad other transport links. London would surely be the same. If I had to try it, I’d use the North/South Circulars as the boundary, which I am sure completely encloses the cluster, close both roads down, cone off the junctions and have police cars driving round and round. Transport would be more of a problem, but the tube network is mostly inside the circulars (where not, lines could be terminated early) and mainline trains would run occasionally and be policed for whatever exceptions are allowed.
If the outbreak happens to be confined to the very centre of London, you could try the same with the inner ring road. But my guess is that it goes wider.
Meanwhile a report from someone in Maryland, people are apparently “scrabbling to buy bread and bog roll as if the world is about to end”. So any complacency about the virus there is evaporating fast.
I am closing my new sell positions on the Dow from yesterday, which is again meeting resistance at 20000. I sense markets are paused, with all the government money (or promise of such) swilling around. We may be at a temporary bottom, which will break downwards if London or New York heads the Italian way, or upward if there is vaccine or cure news.
These are the top 20 or so areas on the confirmed cases list for the UK. Multiply by 20 or so for a guestimate of real cases:
Hampshire: 69 Southwark: 58 Westminster: 58 Kensington and Chelsea: 49 Lambeth: 43 Hertfordshire: 36 Surrey: 30 Oxfordshire: 25 Barnet: 24 Brent: 24 Devon: 24 Bromley: 23 Hammersmith and Fulham: 23 Tower Hamlets: 23 Buckinghamshire: 23 Hackney and City of London: 22 Cumbria: 22 Ealing: 21 Wandsworth: 21 Essex: 21
I'm in Hampshire, which is slightly concerning.
Imagining there are actually 500-700 cases here now.
One of the early cases was someone working at Southampton Hospital, which could easily have started a cluster going. Plus there’s the one in Basingstoke whose origin I don’t know.
What I think will change after this outbreak (just as the financial system did after the financial crisis) is how businesses are both funded and insured and how the assumptions around how healthcare critical care are revised.
If there are long term economic consequences it could come from global agreement or regulation on interactions between humans and mammals for virus transmission, or nations may refuse to do trade deals with China unless they seriously restrict it.
It's possible that rules on aviation and shipping change too for future pandemic containment (although that'd still only delay rather than stop it - the black death spread globally in the 14th century just by sailing ship and people walking with horses).
Taxes will be going up. Healthcare will become an even greater priority. My guess is that corporations and individuals are going to find it a lot harder to hide their money away.
Probably, because debt, but I've already seen a lot of confirmation bias on all sides as to why this crisis will be good for their politics.
Good morning everyone. Trust our associated invalids are improving,
The gym to which I belong, and clearly cannot attend has, apparently, negotiated a deal with a firm which has a series of exercises which can be done at home and show one how to do them on line. In other moves forward a Creative Writing Group of which I'm aware has set up a What'sApp group and is sharing and commenting on it's work that way.
And a nearby off-licence will deliver, as will, now, two good quality local eateries.
PB financial types, searching for some advice. Our fixed rate mortgage is due to expire in 6 months, and in 3 months we'll be able to switch to a new deal without early repayment penalties.
Previously we were obviously going to wait the 3 months, but now I wonder whether it is better to re-fix now and take the £2k hit. I'm worried there will be a house price crash very soon which will take the cheap deals off the table.
And an update on the markets, and an illustration of the perils of waking up in the night and making betting decisions, shortly after 5 am the Dow futures took a plunge for some reason, and the limit down has been triggered again and trading suspended.
Anything in the overnight news?
Maybe the 20000 bottom won’t last as long as I had been thinking.
Markets are beginning to get their heads round how long it will be before vaccines and treatments appear, and therefore how long the crisis is going to last. A year, at least. Everything is going to change fundamentally. There will be no return to how things used to be. How do you price that? You can’t. Things are going to be all over the place for the forseeable future.
I don't think things will change "fundamentally", that's an overreaction. We're certainly living through unprecedented times but one can easily overegg it.
Remember the wise words of Field Marshall Slim: nothing is as good or as bad as it first appears.
We’ll see. I am not saying it will be better or worse. I am saying it will be very different. Governments will end up spending huge amounts dealing with this crisis and its aftermath. Far more than has already been announced. In and of itself that is going to have profound long-term consequences.
Mildly amused. The Chancellor's said he's going to set aside a third of a trillion pounds in loans and grants, and the BBC's main headline is that there's not enough being done for renters.
That's a legitimate point. I don't think it's the heart of a story about £350bn allocated a week or so after a Budget to try and maintain the economy during a pandemic.
And an update on the markets, and an illustration of the perils of waking up in the night and making betting decisions, shortly after 5 am the Dow futures took a plunge for some reason, and the limit down has been triggered again and trading suspended.
Anything in the overnight news?
Maybe the 20000 bottom won’t last as long as I had been thinking.
Markets are beginning to get their heads round how long it will be before vaccines and treatments appear, and therefore how long the crisis is going to last. A year, at least. Everything is going to change fundamentally. There will be no return to how things used to be. How do you price that? You can’t. Things are going to be all over the place for the forseeable future.
I don't think things will change "fundamentally", that's an overreaction. We're certainly living through unprecedented times but one can easily overegg it.
Remember the wise words of Field Marshall Slim: nothing is as good or as bad as it first appears.
We’ll see. I am not saying it will be better or worse. I am saying it will be very different. Governments will end up spending huge amounts dealing with this crisis and its aftermath. Far more than has already been announced. In and of itself that is going to have profound long-term consequences.
Agree with that bit.
We are likely to be in worse position financially than we were in 2010 by the time this is all over. And another decade of austerity will be politically impossible
What I think will change after this outbreak (just as the financial system did after the financial crisis) is how businesses are both funded and insured and how the assumptions around how healthcare critical care are revised.
If there are long term economic consequences it could come from global agreement or regulation on interactions between humans and mammals for virus transmission, or nations may refuse to do trade deals with China unless they seriously restrict it.
It's possible that rules on aviation and shipping change too for future pandemic containment (although that'd still only delay rather than stop it - the black death spread globally in the 14th century just by sailing ship and people walking with horses).
Taxes will be going up. Healthcare will become an even greater priority. My guess is that corporations and individuals are going to find it a lot harder to hide their money away.
Probably, because debt, but I've already seen a lot of confirmation bias on all sides as to why this crisis will be good for their politics.
I last saw it in 2008-2009 as well.
We’ll see. What we do know is that taxes will be going up at the end of all this. When that happens voters will demand they go up for everyone.
Some interesting protocols from China, up to lung transplantation! There is no way we are ready for this. We are seriously screwed by the lack of PPE. Off to work though, needs must. https://twitter.com/JackMa/status/1240105195318554625?s=19
What I think will change after this outbreak (just as the financial system did after the financial crisis) is how businesses are both funded and insured and how the assumptions around how healthcare critical care are revised.
If there are long term economic consequences it could come from global agreement or regulation on interactions between humans and mammals for virus transmission, or nations may refuse to do trade deals with China unless they seriously restrict it.
It's possible that rules on aviation and shipping change too for future pandemic containment (although that'd still only delay rather than stop it - the black death spread globally in the 14th century just by sailing ship and people walking with horses).
Taxes will be going up. Healthcare will become an even greater priority. My guess is that corporations and individuals are going to find it a lot harder to hide their money away.
Probably, because debt, but I've already seen a lot of confirmation bias on all sides as to why this crisis will be good for their politics.
I last saw it in 2008-2009 as well.
We’ll see. What we do know is that taxes will be going up at the end of all this. When that happens voters will demand they go up for everyone.
I think we will see a swing left in terms of economics - but then that is already well underway. We will also see greater emphasis on healthcare and social protection generally, which also plays to the left. However I’d also expect other changes in social attitudes that most would see as conservative, in particular further moved away from globalised free trading economic liberalism, and away from individual social liberalism.
Just a guess. The latter in particular is arguable; the Black Death made people more liberal, against the standards of the times, because it loosened social structures and underlined the capriciousness of life.
Edit/ Also, as 2008 showed us, it is no good just diagnosing the problem; in politics you have to have a coherent answer.
Some interesting protocols from China, up to lung transplantation! There is no way we are ready for this. We are seriously screwed by the lack of PPE. Off to work though, needs must. https://twitter.com/JackMa/status/1240105195318554625?s=19
Some interesting protocols from China, up to lung transplantation! There is no way we are ready for this. We are seriously screwed by the lack of PPE. Off to work though, needs must. https://twitter.com/JackMa/status/1240105195318554625?s=19
We're in this together because the Chinese eat bat soup and pangolin burgers, Jack. So, good of you to share and all that - but we think that might just be the decent thing to do, all things considered.....
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
The Great 2020 Breakdown of British society
Chapter 1: The cancellation of Question Time.
Every cloud has a silver lining.
Isnt there a follow up programme with the woman from Antiques Roadshow. I hope that gets cancelled too.
And an update on the markets, and an illustration of the perils of waking up in the night and making betting decisions, shortly after 5 am the Dow futures took a plunge for some reason, and the limit down has been triggered again and trading suspended.
Anything in the overnight news?
Maybe the 20000 bottom won’t last as long as I had been thinking.
Markets are beginning to get their heads round how long it will be before vaccines and treatments appear, and therefore how long the crisis is going to last. A year, at least. Everything is going to change fundamentally. There will be no return to how things used to be. How do you price that? You can’t. Things are going to be all over the place for the forseeable future.
I don't think things will change "fundamentally", that's an overreaction. We're certainly living through unprecedented times but one can easily overegg it.
Remember the wise words of Field Marshall Slim: nothing is as good or as bad as it first appears.
We’ll see. I am not saying it will be better or worse. I am saying it will be very different. Governments will end up spending huge amounts dealing with this crisis and its aftermath. Far more than has already been announced. In and of itself that is going to have profound long-term consequences.
Agree with that bit.
We are likely to be in worse position financially than we were in 2010 by the time this is all over. And another decade of austerity will be politically impossible
Let's suppose that a vaccine hasn't been found in year from now, but the virus is suppressed by prohibiting all gatherings of people. How happy will people be in a year's time? They won't have much sport to watch, as it takes 22 players to hold a football match behind closed doors. What about films? It takes hundreds of people to make a big budget film, so if one person has the virus they all have to be isolated. Making these films will not be possible. What about television? Question Time in front of a live audience has been cancelled. Game shows and quizzes will be out, as no live audience. TV drama requires sets, actors, production staff etc so filming will not be possible as there will be no vaccine.
People will have nothing to do and very little to watch except the four walls of their room, if they are not homeless, but they will get treated if they get the virus. If they are not happy who will they blame? The virus is a natural event. We had similar viruses in 1969 and 1919 but we managed to cope although many people died. Given a choice between getting sick with the virus and avoiding the virus it could be said: "Which ever you please. You pays your money and you takes your choice".
I think you are right that the point would come where young people would decide a week in bed with a temperature is a better price than a year stuck indoors
I made this point yesterday, and I was told it was "satire". FWIW, I think young people will put up for a few weeks of this, but not much more. Why should they put their life on hold for so long?
----
On a more positive note, in August 1665, the University of Cambridge closed because plague ravaged the town.
A twenty-three year old man withdrew to Woolsthorpe Manor, self-isolating for two years against the terrible plague.
He had been an undistinguished student in Cambridge.
He developed theories on optics, gravitation, mechanics and the calculus. It was to mark the end of medievalism in the sciences, the beginning of the modern era.
Some interesting protocols from China, up to lung transplantation! There is no way we are ready for this. We are seriously screwed by the lack of PPE. Off to work though, needs must. https://twitter.com/JackMa/status/1240105195318554625?s=19
We're in this together because the Chinese eat bat soup and pangolin burgers, Jack. So, good of you to share and all that - but we think that might just be the decent thing to do, all things considered.....
If there is evidence that Winnie-the-Pooh deliberately suppressed or ignored medical data in the early days of this infection (as seems to be alleged from some disappeared Chinese doctors), then a charge of crimes against humanity seems to be justifiable.
Some interesting protocols from China, up to lung transplantation! There is no way we are ready for this. We are seriously screwed by the lack of PPE. Off to work though, needs must. https://twitter.com/JackMa/status/1240105195318554625?s=19
Best off. Support staff all in place?
Dropping like flies with self isolation. We need testing of health care workers or it is going to be like the Mary Celeste.
Mildly amused. The Chancellor's said he's going to set aside a third of a trillion pounds in loans and grants, and the BBC's main headline is that there's not enough being done for renters.
That's a legitimate point. I don't think it's the heart of a story about £350bn allocated a week or so after a Budget to try and maintain the economy during a pandemic.
The package will need to be closer to £350bn grants rather than the £350bn loan guarantees for 1 year. Short term loan guarantees dont really make much difference for a lot of businesses if you have no income for 4 months.
In terms of stocks and shares, I continue to believe we will not bottom out from this for at least 6 months. There are so many huge knock-ons. And I'm afraid the Dow and Nasdaq are having collective delayed reaction. The bear market has a long was still to slide.
I continue to predict the FTSE100 will reach its floor at or below 2000.
And an update on the markets, and an illustration of the perils of waking up in the night and making betting decisions, shortly after 5 am the Dow futures took a plunge for some reason, and the limit down has been triggered again and trading suspended.
Anything in the overnight news?
Maybe the 20000 bottom won’t last as long as I had been thinking.
Markets are beginning to get their heads round how long it will be before vaccines and treatments appear, and therefore how long the crisis is going to last. A year, at least. Everything is going to change fundamentally. There will be no return to how things used to be. How do you price that? You can’t. Things are going to be all over the place for the forseeable future.
I don't think things will change "fundamentally", that's an overreaction. We're certainly living through unprecedented times but one can easily overegg it.
Remember the wise words of Field Marshall Slim: nothing is as good or as bad as it first appears.
We’ll see. I am not saying it will be better or worse. I am saying it will be very different. Governments will end up spending huge amounts dealing with this crisis and its aftermath. Far more than has already been announced. In and of itself that is going to have profound long-term consequences.
Agree with that bit.
We are likely to be in worse position financially than we were in 2010 by the time this is all over. And another decade of austerity will be politically impossible
Some interesting protocols from China, up to lung transplantation! There is no way we are ready for this. We are seriously screwed by the lack of PPE. Off to work though, needs must. https://twitter.com/JackMa/status/1240105195318554625?s=19
Best off. Support staff all in place?
Dropping like flies with self isolation. We need testing of health care workers or it is going to be like the Mary Celeste.
Seems daft not to. Although, have we the tests? Gather the General Pharmaceutical Council is talking about re-registering anyone who's left in the past 3 years, if they wish to return.
CBI on R4 proposing negative employers’ NI. Apparently the Germans are already introducing something similar.
Some logic to that but just make it simpler, and do helicopter money. Then it deals with everyone from gig economy, to those on benefits to elderly all in one go. Quick, clear and decisive. That is what this takes.
What I think will change after this outbreak (just as the financial system did after the financial crisis) is how businesses are both funded and insured and how the assumptions around how healthcare critical care are revised.
If there are long term economic consequences it could come from global agreement or regulation on interactions between humans and mammals for virus transmission, or nations may refuse to do trade deals with China unless they seriously restrict it.
It's possible that rules on aviation and shipping change too for future pandemic containment (although that'd still only delay rather than stop it - the black death spread globally in the 14th century just by sailing ship and people walking with horses).
Taxes will be going up. Healthcare will become an even greater priority. My guess is that corporations and individuals are going to find it a lot harder to hide their money away.
Probably, because debt, but I've already seen a lot of confirmation bias on all sides as to why this crisis will be good for their politics.
I last saw it in 2008-2009 as well.
We’ll see. What we do know is that taxes will be going up at the end of all this. When that happens voters will demand they go up for everyone.
I think we will see a swing left in terms of economics - but then that is already well underway. We will also see greater emphasis on healthcare and social protection generally, which also plays to the left. However I’d also expect other changes in social attitudes that most would see as conservative, in particular further moved away from globalised free trading economic liberalism, and away from individual social liberalism.
Just a guess. The latter in particular is arguable; the Black Death made people more liberal, against the standards of the times, because it loosened social structures and underlined the capriciousness of life.
Edit/ Also, as 2008 showed us, it is no good just diagnosing the problem; in politics you have to have a coherent answer.
I doubt we’ll have to worry about immigration for a while.
Some interesting protocols from China, up to lung transplantation! There is no way we are ready for this. We are seriously screwed by the lack of PPE. Off to work though, needs must. https://twitter.com/JackMa/status/1240105195318554625?s=19
Best off. Support staff all in place?
Dropping like flies with self isolation. We need testing of health care workers or it is going to be like the Mary Celeste.
If there is any group of workers that needs to get this thing early on - and to then be tested with two negatives - it is those in the NHS.
Hopefully 95%+ of them would then be fit enough to endure what comes after.
What I think will change after this outbreak (just as the financial system did after the financial crisis) is how businesses are both funded and insured and how the assumptions around how healthcare critical care are revised.
If there are long term economic consequences it could come from global agreement or regulation on interactions between humans and mammals for virus transmission, or nations may refuse to do trade deals with China unless they seriously restrict it.
It's possible that rules on aviation and shipping change too for future pandemic containment (although that'd still only delay rather than stop it - the black death spread globally in the 14th century just by sailing ship and people walking with horses).
Taxes will be going up. Healthcare will become an even greater priority. My guess is that corporations and individuals are going to find it a lot harder to hide their money away.
Probably, because debt, but I've already seen a lot of confirmation bias on all sides as to why this crisis will be good for their politics.
I last saw it in 2008-2009 as well.
We’ll see. What we do know is that taxes will be going up at the end of all this. When that happens voters will demand they go up for everyone.
I think we will see a swing left in terms of economics - but then that is already well underway. We will also see greater emphasis on healthcare and social protection generally, which also plays to the left. However I’d also expect other changes in social attitudes that most would see as conservative, in particular further moved away from globalised free trading economic liberalism, and away from individual social liberalism.
Just a guess. The latter in particular is arguable; the Black Death made people more liberal, against the standards of the times, because it loosened social structures and underlined the capriciousness of life.
Edit/ Also, as 2008 showed us, it is no good just diagnosing the problem; in politics you have to have a coherent answer.
I would emphasise your edit. The one thing I'm sure of is that things will change, but I don't think it's possible to predict what that change will be. It will depend on which individual or group develops the best story about what went wrong, what went right and how to have more of the latter than the former. "Best" here doesn't mean the most accurate, but some combination of convincing, simple and inspiring, possibly in a different order of importance. Anything could happen.
What I think will change after this outbreak (just as the financial system did after the financial crisis) is how businesses are both funded and insured and how the assumptions around how healthcare critical care are revised.
If there are long term economic consequences it could come from global agreement or regulation on interactions between humans and mammals for virus transmission, or nations may refuse to do trade deals with China unless they seriously restrict it.
It's possible that rules on aviation and shipping change too for future pandemic containment (although that'd still only delay rather than stop it - the black death spread globally in the 14th century just by sailing ship and people walking with horses).
Taxes will be going up. Healthcare will become an even greater priority. My guess is that corporations and individuals are going to find it a lot harder to hide their money away.
Probably, because debt, but I've already seen a lot of confirmation bias on all sides as to why this crisis will be good for their politics.
I last saw it in 2008-2009 as well.
We’ll see. What we do know is that taxes will be going up at the end of all this. When that happens voters will demand they go up for everyone.
I think we will see a swing left in terms of economics - but then that is already well underway. We will also see greater emphasis on healthcare and social protection generally, which also plays to the left. However I’d also expect other changes in social attitudes that most would see as conservative, in particular further moved away from globalised free trading economic liberalism, and away from individual social liberalism.
Just a guess. The latter in particular is arguable; the Black Death made people more liberal, against the standards of the times, because it loosened social structures and underlined the capriciousness of life.
Edit/ Also, as 2008 showed us, it is no good just diagnosing the problem; in politics you have to have a coherent answer.
I doubt we’ll have to worry about immigration for a while.
Will there still be money for Trident replacements and third runways?
PB financial types, searching for some advice. Our fixed rate mortgage is due to expire in 6 months, and in 3 months we'll be able to switch to a new deal without early repayment penalties.
Previously we were obviously going to wait the 3 months, but now I wonder whether it is better to re-fix now and take the £2k hit. I'm worried there will be a house price crash very soon which will take the cheap deals off the table.
Any thoughts?
I think there will be a house price slump but am not sure why you think that would follow through to not being able to get a cheap mortgage? Money is getting cheaper and if the housing market is falling that adds to the pressure to keep it so. We do live in unpredictable times, and in your position I’d have the new loan lined up and ready to go as soon as your penalty period ends (there is some risk of an inflationary spike throwing a spanner into economic assumptions, so why wait and take the chance). But I wouldn’t pay £2k to go now. We might even have negative interest rates in a few months time!
CBI on R4 proposing negative employers’ NI. Apparently the Germans are already introducing something similar.
Some logic to that but just make it simpler, and do helicopter money. Then it deals with everyone from gig economy, to those on benefits to elderly all in one go. Quick, clear and decisive. That is what this takes.
How do you deliver this "helicopter money" during an infectious disease?
Do we all have to form a line? Wait for our bundle of cash to come out the slot in the side of an armoured car?
I have not yet had a chance to review yesterday’s proposals in detail.
But isn’t the big problem this: the government is requiring people to reduce their demand for anything other than essential items. That means a vastly reduced income for those providing such goods/services while their bills stay the same. Loans don’t help as there is no income out of which they can be repaid. Indeed increasing indebtedness at such a time is probably the worst thing you can do.
So the only ways are:-
1. Give money to those facing the drop in income. Make this conditional on keeping staff on. 2. Reduce costs eg rent holidays (and compensate those affected) / defer tax payments / no employers NI. 3. Lift the restrictions depressing demand as soon as it is possible - consistent with protecting health - to do so. 4. Businesses seeking other ways to get income consistent with the health restrictions eg takeaways for restaurants.
Have I missed anything?
And if the above is right, how do the proposals yesterday and those to come measure up?
I have not yet had a chance to review yesterday’s proposals in detail.
But isn’t the big problem this: the government is requiring people to reduce their demand for anything other than essential items. That means a vastly reduced income for those providing such goods/services while their bills stay the same. Loans don’t help as there is no income out of which they can be repaid. Indeed increasing indebtedness at such a time is probably the worst thing you can do.
So the only ways are:-
1. Give money to those facing the drop in income. Make this conditional on keeping staff on. 2. Reduce costs eg rent holidays (and compensate those affected) / defer tax payments / no employers NI. 3. Lift the restrictions depressing demand as soon as it is possible - consistent with protecting health - to do so. 4. Businesses seeking other ways to get income consistent with the health restrictions eg takeaways for restaurants.
Have I missed anything?
And if the above is right, how do the proposals yesterday and those to come measure up?
I would really like to feel hopeful.
For all these reasons, it’s going to be a deferred gift. It just won’t be called that yet.
Mildly amused. The Chancellor's said he's going to set aside a third of a trillion pounds in loans and grants, and the BBC's main headline is that there's not enough being done for renters.
That's a legitimate point. I don't think it's the heart of a story about £350bn allocated a week or so after a Budget to try and maintain the economy during a pandemic.
The package will need to be closer to £350bn grants rather than the £350bn loan guarantees for 1 year. Short term loan guarantees dont really make much difference for a lot of businesses if you have no income for 4 months.
The 2020 budget must rank as the worst ever in terms of long term financial planning.
I have not yet had a chance to review yesterday’s proposals in detail.
But isn’t the big problem this: the government is requiring people to reduce their demand for anything other than essential items. That means a vastly reduced income for those providing such goods/services while their bills stay the same. Loans don’t help as there is no income out of which they can be repaid. Indeed increasing indebtedness at such a time is probably the worst thing you can do.
So the only ways are:-
1. Give money to those facing the drop in income. Make this conditional on keeping staff on. 2. Reduce costs eg rent holidays (and compensate those affected) / defer tax payments / no employers NI. 3. Lift the restrictions depressing demand as soon as it is possible - consistent with protecting health - to do so. 4. Businesses seeking other ways to get income consistent with the health restrictions eg takeaways for restaurants.
Have I missed anything?
And if the above is right, how do the proposals yesterday and those to come measure up?
I would really like to feel hopeful.
For all these reasons, it’s going to be a deferred gift. It just won’t be called that yet.
It needs to be called that now before people start being laid off. There really is no time to waste.
CBI on R4 proposing negative employers’ NI. Apparently the Germans are already introducing something similar.
Some logic to that but just make it simpler, and do helicopter money. Then it deals with everyone from gig economy, to those on benefits to elderly all in one go. Quick, clear and decisive. That is what this takes.
How do you deliver this "helicopter money" during an infectious disease?
Do we all have to form a line? Wait for our bundle of cash to come out the slot in the side of an armoured car?
20 million get some form of benefits and 12 million do self assessment so presumably the govt can pay the majority direct to their bank account without any additional registration?
For the rest first thought would be similar verification process to opening an online bank account, verify against NI number, electoral roll, council tax and option to submit bank details or collect at post office?
Comments
https://unherd.com/2020/03/the-scientific-case-against-herd-immunity/
Alexandra Rojas: 'themovementthemovementthemovement'
Dems have the same problems as Labour, people who can't see the wood for the trees.
Give Sanders a day or so. He’s been running for the nomination for a good half decade.... Calling it quits, particularly when you’re as stubborn as he seems to be, takes some adjusting to.
If the outbreak happens to be confined to the very centre of London, you could try the same with the inner ring road. But my guess is that it goes wider.
Meanwhile a report from someone in Maryland, people are apparently “scrabbling to buy bread and bog roll as if the world is about to end”. So any complacency about the virus there is evaporating fast.
I am closing my new sell positions on the Dow from yesterday, which is again meeting resistance at 20000. I sense markets are paused, with all the government money (or promise of such) swilling around. We may be at a temporary bottom, which will break downwards if London or New York heads the Italian way, or upward if there is vaccine or cure news.
Though that may be a bit of an ask.
I would say the main thing is to completely and entirely close down the public transport. Let them use cars, pushbikes or ubers.
Looking at the numbers, on the Govt list 13 of the top 'counties' by cases are London Boroughs. And there are perhaps 7-10x more real cases out there.
Yet the Tube is only down by is it 20%?
I had one travel all the way up to Nottingham on a train with a cough last weekend without seemingly even thinking about it.
Hampshire: 69
Southwark: 58
Westminster: 58
Kensington and Chelsea: 49
Lambeth: 43
Hertfordshire: 36
Surrey: 30
Oxfordshire: 25
Barnet: 24
Brent: 24
Devon: 24
Bromley: 23
Hammersmith and Fulham: 23
Tower Hamlets: 23
Buckinghamshire: 23
Hackney and City of London: 22
Cumbria: 22
Ealing: 21
Wandsworth: 21
Essex: 21
Something I don't understand about this. If you have had the virus and IF it's the case that you can't become re-infected, then surely you can go about normal life? Will we have a country divided between those who've survived it and those who've yet to get it?
Also a good time to be writing books!
Ringo Starr was a very capable drummer. He understood that percussion served the song.
Anything in the overnight news?
Maybe the 20000 bottom won’t last as long as I had been thinking.
I think in this crisis we may be seeing peak London.
Imagining there are actually 500-700 cases here now.
Wouldn't surprise me if even he's considering withdrawing now.
Chapter 1: The cancellation of Question Time.
Remember the wise words of Field Marshall Slim: nothing is as good or as bad as it first appears.
People aren't going to accept permanent lockdown and economic ruin.
The Government know this which is why they were trying to delay this phase as much as possible.
If there are long term economic consequences it could come from global agreement or regulation on interactions between humans and mammals for virus transmission, or nations may refuse to do trade deals with China unless they seriously restrict it.
It's possible that rules on aviation and shipping change too for future pandemic containment (although that'd still only delay rather than stop it - the black death spread globally in the 14th century just by sailing ship and people walking with horses).
There's a novel in that.....
I last saw it in 2008-2009 as well.
The gym to which I belong, and clearly cannot attend has, apparently, negotiated a deal with a firm which has a series of exercises which can be done at home and show one how to do them on line.
In other moves forward a Creative Writing Group of which I'm aware has set up a What'sApp group and is sharing and commenting on it's work that way.
And a nearby off-licence will deliver, as will, now, two good quality local eateries.
It's not all negative.
Previously we were obviously going to wait the 3 months, but now I wonder whether it is better to re-fix now and take the £2k hit. I'm worried there will be a house price crash very soon which will take the cheap deals off the table.
Any thoughts?
Mildly amused. The Chancellor's said he's going to set aside a third of a trillion pounds in loans and grants, and the BBC's main headline is that there's not enough being done for renters.
That's a legitimate point. I don't think it's the heart of a story about £350bn allocated a week or so after a Budget to try and maintain the economy during a pandemic.
https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1240171876695117824?s=19
There is no way we are ready for this. We are seriously screwed by the lack of PPE.
Off to work though, needs must.
https://twitter.com/JackMa/status/1240105195318554625?s=19
Just a guess. The latter in particular is arguable; the Black Death made people more liberal, against the standards of the times, because it loosened social structures and underlined the capriciousness of life.
Edit/ Also, as 2008 showed us, it is no good just diagnosing the problem; in politics you have to have a coherent answer.
All that hard work. For nothing.
----
On a more positive note, in August 1665, the University of Cambridge closed because plague ravaged the town.
A twenty-three year old man withdrew to Woolsthorpe Manor, self-isolating for two years against the terrible plague.
He had been an undistinguished student in Cambridge.
He developed theories on optics, gravitation, mechanics and the calculus. It was to mark the end of medievalism in the sciences, the beginning of the modern era.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/state/illinois
I continue to predict the FTSE100 will reach its floor at or below 2000.
Count me amongst the ranks of the Norwegian Formulists.
E45 has by far the best and most long lasting effect for me and I've tried a fuck ton of different creams.
Gather the General Pharmaceutical Council is talking about re-registering anyone who's left in the past 3 years, if they wish to return.
Hopefully 95%+ of them would then be fit enough to endure what comes after.
"Best" here doesn't mean the most accurate, but some combination of convincing, simple and inspiring, possibly in a different order of importance.
Anything could happen.
Not advice, DYOR etc.
Do we all have to form a line? Wait for our bundle of cash to come out the slot in the side of an armoured car?
But isn’t the big problem this: the government is requiring people to reduce their demand for anything other than essential items. That means a vastly reduced income for those providing such goods/services while their bills stay the same. Loans don’t help as there is no income out of which they can be repaid. Indeed increasing indebtedness at such a time is probably the worst thing you can do.
So the only ways are:-
1. Give money to those facing the drop in income. Make this conditional on keeping staff on.
2. Reduce costs eg rent holidays (and compensate those affected) / defer tax payments / no employers NI.
3. Lift the restrictions depressing demand as soon as it is possible - consistent with protecting health - to do so.
4. Businesses seeking other ways to get income consistent with the health restrictions eg takeaways for restaurants.
Have I missed anything?
And if the above is right, how do the proposals yesterday and those to come measure up?
I would really like to feel hopeful.
Best thing is to put on at night and put cotton gloves on. Same with feet + cotton socks.
For the rest first thought would be similar verification process to opening an online bank account, verify against NI number, electoral roll, council tax and option to submit bank details or collect at post office?
Just as well I went down the Co-op yesterday.
Best wishes to you and Mrs BJO. Stay safe.