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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The politics of Wind farms: Even CON voters are more in fav

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  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,691
    AveryLP said:

    Boy George, Boy Genius

    How is the UK doing against the US and China?

    Well we might not have caught up yet but we are the only one of the three moving in the right direction.

    US manufacturing growth fell to 50.7 last month from 51.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), missing the 50.9 market estimate.

    A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

    The sector also weakened in China, falling to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March. It came in below forecasts for a reading in line with the previous month.

    The official purchasing managers’ index, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in below forecasts for a reading in line with the previous month.

    In the UK, manufacturing increased to 49.8 in April from 48.6 the previous month, revealed the Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. It beat analysts’ expectations for a reading of 48.5 but fell below the reading of 50 needed to indicate growth.


    Whatever would the country have done without Osborne?

    Come out of the recession faster.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    HYUFD said:

    Based on the Comres poll out yesterday, it looks like there will be a swing of about 4% from Tory to Labour tomorrow and 4.5% from LD to Tory and 8.5% from LD to Labour, UKIP will take votes from them all!


    The most important words to focus on in your comment are the first five We shall soon see if its Comres or Comedy results.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,638
    There are four big wind turbines dotted in and around the former Ford's works in Dagenham. I think these are probably the only turbines of their size in Greater London.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,638

    Windfarms are rather like HS2. Most people kind-of support it as long as they're not impacted by any of the direct adverse effects, and as long as they're not troubled by the finances.

    There are very few positive votes in the issue, though there are a larger number that can be lost by going ahead with either (or both). On the other hand, there are also votes to be lost by doing nothing - though they won't be lost until further in the future.

    Richard N sums it all up excellently early on in the thread.

    HS2 is estimated to cost the whole country over £30 billion pouinds, probably a lot more in practice, plus the annual subsidy to run it.

    So it is not an issue for NIMBYs, it is an issue for every taxpayer. The penny has not dropped yet. Poor taxpayers will be paying for rich business men's toy train set.

    And Crossrail is costing £15.9 billion, for something that advantages only London.

    Where were your complaints then?
    Not just London - it terminates in Berkshire one end and Essex at the other.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,691

    [Nigel Farage] had told me that ‘immigration will dominate the referendum campaign’ when it comes. This is a significant tactical move from Farage. For whatever Cameron achieves in the renegotiation, he is unlikely to get—or seek—major changes to freedom of movement.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/05/nigel-farage-immigration-will-dominate-the-eu-referendum-campaign/

    Of course the third sentence I've quoted is indeed true. If anyone can explain to me why this is an argument to vote UKIP in 2015, rather than Conservative in order to get the referendum so you can then vote for Out, I would be grateful. Any concessions Cameron may or may not get are irrelevant, aren't they? It's the refendum which the UKIPers want (or claim to want; one has to wonder how sincere they are). For UKIPpers to vote in a way that makes it more likely that Labour will form the government, and therefore to get no attempt (successful or not) at renegotiation AND no referendum, would be utterly bizarre.

    Or alternatively the Blues could try listening to their voters' concerns instead of moaning about UKIP.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,503
    Squareroot - Indeed, we will find out on Friday
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    edited May 2013

    <
    It is very simple and has been repeated many times. As it stands at the moment Cameron will only allow a referendum if he believes he is assured he will win. Under any other circumstances he will make sure that the referendum is either not held or the terms are so wide as to allow him to completely ignore it afterwards.

    Cameron has already burnt his bridges as far as a referendum is concerned and he is simply not trusted on the issue.

    It has been repeated, but it is still completely bonkers. Quite apart from the fact that Cameron has actually kept every single promise, without exception, on the EU - the rewrite of history over the 'cast-iron guarantee is itself bonkers - and the fact that Conservative Party would not tolerate any backsliding on this, it remains the case that, even if you have doubts, it is still the only chance. What rational person over three years old would exchange a sporting chance of getting what they want for a 100% certainty of not getting what they want?
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    Re the local elections, here for comparison are the percentages (projected share) according to Wikipedia when Labour were last in opposition and the ComRes poll from yesterday:

    1981 1985 1989 1993 ComRes Lab 41 39 42 39 24 Con 38 32 36 31 31 LD 17 26 19 25 12 Ukip -- -- -- -- 22
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,503
    Freshman senator Ted Cruz is considering a presidential run, according to his friends and confidants.
    Cruz won’t talk about it publicly, and even privately he’s cagey about revealing too much of his thought process or intentions. But his interest is undeniable.
    “If you don’t think this is real, then you’re not paying attention,” says a Republican insider. “Cruz already has grassroots on his side, and in this climate, that’s all he may need.”
    “There’s not a lot of hesitation there,” adds a Cruz donor who has known the Texan for decades. “He’s fearless.”
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,267



    It has been repeated, but it is still completely bonkers. Quite apart from the fact that Cameron has actually kept every single promise, without exception, on the EU - the rewrite of history over the 'cast-iron guarantee is itself bonkers - and the fact that Conservative Party would not tolerate any backsliding on this, it is still the case that, even if you have doubts, it is still the only chance. What rational person over three years old would exchange a sporting chance of getting what they want for a 100% certainty of not getting what they want?

    Written like a true loyalist. Complete garbage of course and Cameron is eventually going to realise that if he hasn't already. His promises after the election are meaningless. The only thing that would possibly save him would be real action now - perhaps something he is starting to understand given yet more rumours of him shifting position.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Millsy said:

    Re the local elections, here for comparison are the percentages (projected share) according to Wikipedia when Labour were last in opposition and the ComRes poll from yesterday:

    1981 1985 1989 1993 ComRes Lab 41 39 42 39 24 Con 38 32 36 31 31 LD 17 26 19 25 12 Ukip -- -- -- -- 22

    But the ComRes figures were for actual rather than projected voteshare and so are not comparable.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413

    Written like a true loyalist. Complete garbage of course and Cameron is eventually going to realise that if he hasn't already. His promises after the election are meaningless. The only thing that would possibly save him would be real action now - perhaps something he is starting to understand given yet more rumours of him shifting position.

    I note you completely ignored my point. Here it is again, in case you overlooked it in your partisan blindness:

    What rational person over three years old would exchange a sporting chance of getting what they want for a 100% certainty of not getting what they want?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 20,267



    I note you completely ignored my point. Here it is again, in case you overlooked it in your partisan blindness:

    What rational person over three years old would exchange a sporting chance of getting what they want for a 100% certainty of not getting what they want?

    I didn't ignore it, it was a meaningless question.There is no sporting chance. Cameron will never deliver if there is the slightest chance it would mean a vote for withdrawal.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    UKIP are allowed a couple of populist policies. We're against gay marriage and wind farms. On the first, I'm agnostic, and on the second, they are simply v poor value for money.

    A popular decision for both types of power could be this: free electricty for those who find themselves with either in their back yard. No, its not too difficult: the French did it with their nuclear power stations. Of course its 'not fair', but that does not stop it being sensible.
    Do I want to get into a discussion about the 'radius of impact', or 'a sliding scale'? I do not (or not until I'm closer to being energy minister in a UKIP govt.....).

    The company "Good Energy" have already introduced a proximity discount so that people within the surroundings of their turbines get a 20% discount on electricity. Recently they won awards for their customer service also.

    http://www.goodenergy.co.uk/press/releases/2012/11/19/good-energy-announces-uk-s-first-local-electricity-tariff
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Any last minute polls expected today?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,503
    Voters asked in polling to sum up how they feel about party leaders in a word say -

    Cameron: 'Privileged'
    Clegg: 'Confused'
    Miliband: 'No'
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413


    I didn't ignore it, it was a meaningless question.There is no sporting chance. Cameron will never deliver if there is the slightest chance it would mean a vote for withdrawal.

    Your certainty in the face of all the evidence is remarkable.

    I think the real explanation might be that you don't want a referendum because you think you'll lose (although it seems a bit extreme to work for Ed Balls as Chancellor to avoid one). As you may remember, I agree. In fact, we have a bet on it.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013



    I note you completely ignored my point. Here it is again, in case you overlooked it in your partisan blindness:

    What rational person over three years old would exchange a sporting chance of getting what they want for a 100% certainty of not getting what they want?

    I didn't ignore it, it was a meaningless question.There is no sporting chance. Cameron will never deliver if there is the slightest chance it would mean a vote for withdrawal.
    The history of the EU is riddled with examples of governments in agreement with the leading opposition parties holding referendums to seek endorsement and then finding that the electorate rejects the government recommendation.

    UKIP's best hope on forcing an exit from the EU is to argue its case before the people in such a referendum.

    So Cameron holding an IN/OUT referendum, recommending (and expecting) an IN vote is the best, and likely only, opportunity UKIP will get to secure an OUT vote by plebiscite.
  • RichardNabaviRichardNabavi Posts: 3,413
    AveryLP said:

    So Cameron holding an IN/OUT referendum, recommending (and expecting) an IN vote is the best opportunity UKIP will get.

    Not the best- the only opportunity.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    tim said:


    Jeremy Chum was warned about this,everyone was warned about it.

    It must be really frustrating that noone in power ever listens to your warnings.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Written like a true loyalist. Complete garbage of course and Cameron is eventually going to realise that if he hasn't already. His promises after the election are meaningless. The only thing that would possibly save him would be real action now - perhaps something he is starting to understand given yet more rumours of him shifting position.

    I note you completely ignored my point. Here it is again, in case you overlooked it in your partisan blindness:

    What rational person over three years old would exchange a sporting chance of getting what they want for a 100% certainty of not getting what they want?
    But it's not a sporting chance RichardN. We, and I mean all right thinking people already know how slippery and treacherous Cameron is. I think there is more chance of a referendum on in/out Europe by voting UKIP, than waiting for promises of pie in the sky in a very iffy future.

    You may trust Cameron; the majority, even in his own party, don't.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013

    AveryLP said:

    So Cameron holding an IN/OUT referendum, recommending (and expecting) an IN vote is the best opportunity UKIP will get.

    Not the best- the only opportunity.
    I did edit my post to make that clear!

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    Neil said:

    Millsy said:

    Re the local elections, here for comparison are the percentages (projected share) according to Wikipedia when Labour were last in opposition and the ComRes poll from yesterday:

    1981 1985 1989 1993 ComRes Lab 41 39 42 39 24 Con 38 32 36 31 31 LD 17 26 19 25 12 Ukip -- -- -- -- 22

    But the ComRes figures were for actual rather than projected voteshare and so are not comparable.
    Neil, please explain. I genuinely don't understand what your are saying.

    [No need now. ar has done a sterling job!]
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,558
    Millsy said:

    Re the local elections, here for comparison are the percentages (projected share) according to Wikipedia when Labour were last in opposition and the ComRes poll from yesterday:

    1981 1985 1989 1993 ComRes Lab 41 39 42 39 24 Con 38 32 36 31 31 LD 17 26 19 25 12 Ukip -- -- -- -- 22


    You're not comparing like with like.

    The 81-93 numbers are national equivalent projection not the actual votes.

    The ComRes is a poll only of people in areas which are voting this week and so 'biased' towards the Conservatives as the areas voting are more Conservatives than the country as a whole.

    For a rough national equivalent you need to knock about 10% of the combined Con/UKIP vote and add it to the Labour total.

    On Friday the BBC, R&T etc will give their national equivalent projections.

    If the Conservatives are under 30% they're in big trouble.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Neil said:

    tim said:


    Jeremy Chum was warned about this,everyone was warned about it.

    It must be really frustrating that noone in power ever listens to your warnings.
    And he dialled 111 ten times to warn them.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    @RichardNabavi

    You do realise the world doesn't end in 2020, don't you? There will be plenty of opportunities for a referendum on the EU in the election after next. Certainly a greater chance of it happening then than in 2018.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 15,558
    AveryLP said:

    Boy George, Boy Genius

    How is the UK doing against the US and China?

    Well we might not have caught up yet but we are the only one of the three moving in the right direction.

    US manufacturing growth fell to 50.7 last month from 51.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), missing the 50.9 market estimate.

    A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

    The sector also weakened in China, falling to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March. The official purchasing managers’ index, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in below forecasts for a reading in line with the previous month.

    In the UK, manufacturing increased to 49.8 in April from 48.6 the previous month, revealed the Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. It beat analysts’ expectations for a reading of 48.5 but fell below the reading of 50 needed to indicate growth.


    Whatever would the country have done without Osborne?

    Avery you're embarrassing yourself.

    UK manufacturing DECREASED last month, that in China and the USA INCREASED. That their rate of gain compared to the UK slowed is true but they still increased their lead over us.

    Please give up the act Avery, it makes you look ridiculous and LOSES the Conservatives support.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,691

    AveryLP said:

    Boy George, Boy Genius

    How is the UK doing against the US and China?

    Well we might not have caught up yet but we are the only one of the three moving in the right direction.

    US manufacturing growth fell to 50.7 last month from 51.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), missing the 50.9 market estimate.

    A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

    The sector also weakened in China, falling to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March. The official purchasing managers’ index, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in below forecasts for a reading in line with the previous month.

    In the UK, manufacturing increased to 49.8 in April from 48.6 the previous month, revealed the Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. It beat analysts’ expectations for a reading of 48.5 but fell below the reading of 50 needed to indicate growth.


    Whatever would the country have done without Osborne?

    Avery you're embarrassing yourself.

    UK manufacturing DECREASED last month, that in China and the USA INCREASED. That their rate of gain compared to the UK slowed is true but they still increased their lead over us.

    Please give up the act Avery, it makes you look ridiculous and LOSES the Conservatives support.
    AR

    I had had a very liquid lunch, met up with some old colleagues, I hadn't seen for years, the sun was belting in Warks. and the Stranglers were singing Go Buddy and then Mr Pole ruined it by mentioning Osborne. He's a vote killer :-(
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    Boy George, Boy Genius

    How is the UK doing against the US and China?

    Well we might not have caught up yet but we are the only one of the three moving in the right direction.

    US manufacturing growth fell to 50.7 last month from 51.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), missing the 50.9 market estimate.

    A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

    The sector also weakened in China, falling to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March. The official purchasing managers’ index, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in below forecasts for a reading in line with the previous month.

    In the UK, manufacturing increased to 49.8 in April from 48.6 the previous month, revealed the Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. It beat analysts’ expectations for a reading of 48.5 but fell below the reading of 50 needed to indicate growth.


    Whatever would the country have done without Osborne?

    Avery you're embarrassing yourself.

    UK manufacturing DECREASED last month, that in China and the USA INCREASED. That their rate of gain compared to the UK slowed is true but they still increased their lead over us.

    Please give up the act Avery, it makes you look ridiculous and LOSES the Conservatives support.
    The direction of movement is probably more important, ar.

    If manufacturing growth has been a problem - which it has in the UK - then arresting the decline and narrowing the gap between decline and growth is the first step in recovery.

    The fact remains that the UK figures show an improvement over the previous month whereas those in the US and China show a deterioration. Particularly remarkable when the UK is far more exposed to the recession in the EU than either the US or China.

    Incrememtal improvement, step by step, month by month in a counter direction to global trends is something to celebrate, ar.

    So rejoice at that news.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Avery you're like the Terminator (T-800, obv) and Osborne's the young John Connor.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 15,849
    Reading anything meaningful into a single quarter's figures is a hard (or perhaps foolish) thing to do given the fluctuations that all sorts of variables can bring, the unreliability and incompleteness of the data, or the normal seasonal movements; trying to read anything out of a single *month* is triply so. We really shouldn't get too het up about either.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    tim said:

    @itvnews: 'Urgent review' into NHS England 111 helpline, after allegations of 'chaos' http://t.co/vr3x7EE2l6

    Jeremy Chum was warned about this,everyone was warned about it.

    People were warned about Stafford, so they just massaged the figures.

    Still, that's nothing compared to MMR, eh?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,691
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Boy George, Boy Genius

    How is the UK doing against the US and China?

    Well we might not have caught up yet but we are the only one of the three moving in the right direction.

    US manufacturing growth fell to 50.7 last month from 51.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), missing the 50.9 market estimate.

    A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

    The sector also weakened in China, falling to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March. The official purchasing managers’ index, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in below forecasts for a reading in line with the previous month.

    In the UK, manufacturing increased to 49.8 in April from 48.6 the previous month, revealed the Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. It beat analysts’ expectations for a reading of 48.5 but fell below the reading of 50 needed to indicate growth.


    Whatever would the country have done without Osborne?

    Avery you're embarrassing yourself.

    UK manufacturing DECREASED last month, that in China and the USA INCREASED. That their rate of gain compared to the UK slowed is true but they still increased their lead over us.

    Please give up the act Avery, it makes you look ridiculous and LOSES the Conservatives support.
    The direction of movement is probably more important, ar.

    If manufacturing growth has been a problem - which it has in the UK - then arresting the decline and narrowing the gap between decline and growth is the first step in recovery.

    The fact remains that the UK figures show an improvement over the previous month whereas those in the US and China show a deterioration. Particularly remarkable when the UK is far more exposed to the recession in the EU than either the US or China.

    Incrememtal improvement, step by step, month by month in a counter direction to global trends is something to celebrate, ar.

    So rejoice at that news.

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Boy George, Boy Genius

    How is the UK doing against the US and China?

    Well we might not have caught up yet but we are the only one of the three moving in the right direction.

    US manufacturing growth fell to 50.7 last month from 51.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), missing the 50.9 market estimate.

    A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

    The sector also weakened in China, falling to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March. The official purchasing managers’ index, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in below forecasts for a reading in line with the previous month.

    In the UK, manufacturing increased to 49.8 in April from 48.6 the previous month, revealed the Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. It beat analysts’ expectations for a reading of 48.5 but fell below the reading of 50 needed to indicate growth.


    Whatever would the country have done without Osborne?

    Avery you're embarrassing yourself.

    UK manufacturing DECREASED last month, that in China and the USA INCREASED. That their rate of gain compared to the UK slowed is true but they still increased their lead over us.

    Please give up the act Avery, it makes you look ridiculous and LOSES the Conservatives support.
    The direction of movement is probably more important, ar.

    If manufacturing growth has been a problem - which it has in the UK - then arresting the decline and narrowing the gap between decline and growth is the first step in recovery.

    The fact remains that the UK figures show an improvement over the previous month whereas those in the US and China show a deterioration. Particularly remarkable when the UK is far more exposed to the recession in the EU than either the US or China.

    Incrememtal improvement, step by step, month by month in a counter direction to global trends is something to celebrate, ar.

    So rejoice at that news.

    Really Mr P just give it up, Osborne hasn't a clue about the manufacturing sector or how to get it moving. It simply annoys those of us who work in it when false bravado highlights how big a chasm there is in your understanding.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    Windfarms are rather like HS2. Most people kind-of support it as long as they're not impacted by any of the direct adverse effects, and as long as they're not troubled by the finances.

    There are very few positive votes in the issue, though there are a larger number that can be lost by going ahead with either (or both). On the other hand, there are also votes to be lost by doing nothing - though they won't be lost until further in the future.

    Richard N sums it all up excellently early on in the thread.

    HS2 is estimated to cost the whole country over £30 billion pouinds, probably a lot more in practice, plus the annual subsidy to run it.

    So it is not an issue for NIMBYs, it is an issue for every taxpayer. The penny has not dropped yet. Poor taxpayers will be paying for rich business men's toy train set.

    And Crossrail is costing £15.9 billion, for something that advantages only London.

    Where were your complaints then?
    Not just London - it terminates in Berkshire one end and Essex at the other.
    It won't be long before they're London, and the M25 is the Inner Circular. ;-)
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    AveryLP said:

    So Cameron holding an IN/OUT referendum, recommending (and expecting) an IN vote is the best opportunity UKIP will get.

    Not the best- the only opportunity.
    If UKIP's support keeps building, a referendum during this parliament becomes ever more likely.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    Carola said:

    Avery you're like the Terminator (T-800, obv) and Osborne's the young John Connor.

    How flattering to be compared so favourably to a Cameron creation.

    My most sincere thanks, Carola.

    Take a performance related non-regionally adjusted pay rise.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    AveryLP said:

    Carola said:

    Avery you're like the Terminator (T-800, obv) and Osborne's the young John Connor.

    How flattering to be compared so favourably to a Cameron creation.

    My most sincere thanks, Carola.

    Take a performance related non-regionally adjusted pay rise.
    Well, Titanic or The Abyss were too obvious ;)

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Some very interesting polling details from Survation:
    http://survation.com/2013/05/local-elections-2013-seat-projections-too-conservative/

    If this breakdown is accurate (and we are in the process of adding more data) then the interesting conclusion is that the optimum UKIP vote share as far as Labour is concerned is actually around 16%. After than point, more of the marginal switchers to UKIP start to come from Labour than the Conservatives (even though the overall UKIP vote is still predominantly Tory into the 20%s, after 16% further growth in UKIP vote is offset by the falling Conservative share).

    At this maximum point UKIP increases Labour’s lead over the Conservatives by about 5 percentage points, a potentially election-wrecking margin. Interestingly 16% is the UKIP vote share recorded in today’s Survation poll. In other words, UKIP is currently polling at the worst possible level for the Conservative Party’s prospects and is responsible for over half of Labour’s current lead in the opinion polls.

    UKIP's recent surge has coincided with a slight fall in the Labour lead, perhaps the 16% sweet spot varies across pollsters?

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Boy George, Boy Genius

    How is the UK doing against the US and China?

    Well we might not have caught up yet but we are the only one of the three moving in the right direction.

    US manufacturing growth fell to 50.7 last month from 51.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), missing the 50.9 market estimate.

    A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

    The sector also weakened in China, falling to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March. The official purchasing managers’ index, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in below forecasts for a reading in line with the previous month.

    In the UK, manufacturing increased to 49.8 in April from 48.6 the previous month, revealed the Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. It beat analysts’ expectations for a reading of 48.5 but fell below the reading of 50 needed to indicate growth.


    Whatever would the country have done without Osborne?

    Avery you're embarrassing yourself.

    UK manufacturing DECREASED last month, that in China and the USA INCREASED. That their rate of gain compared to the UK slowed is true but they still increased their lead over us.

    Please give up the act Avery, it makes you look ridiculous and LOSES the Conservatives support.
    The direction of movement is probably more important, ar.

    If manufacturing growth has been a problem - which it has in the UK - then arresting the decline and narrowing the gap between decline and growth is the first step in recovery.

    The fact remains that the UK figures show an improvement over the previous month whereas those in the US and China show a deterioration. Particularly remarkable when the UK is far more exposed to the recession in the EU than either the US or China.

    Incrememtal improvement, step by step, month by month in a counter direction to global trends is something to celebrate, ar.

    So rejoice at that news.

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Boy George, Boy Genius

    How is the UK doing against the US and China?

    Well we might not have caught up yet but we are the only one of the three moving in the right direction.

    US manufacturing growth fell to 50.7 last month from 51.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), missing the 50.9 market estimate.

    A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

    The sector also weakened in China, falling to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March. The official purchasing managers’ index, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in below forecasts for a reading in line with the previous month.

    In the UK, manufacturing increased to 49.8 in April from 48.6 the previous month, revealed the Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. It beat analysts’ expectations for a reading of 48.5 but fell below the reading of 50 needed to indicate growth.


    Whatever would the country have done without Osborne?

    Avery you're embarrassing yourself.

    UK manufacturing DECREASED last month, that in China and the USA INCREASED. That their rate of gain compared to the UK slowed is true but they still increased their lead over us.

    Please give up the act Avery, it makes you look ridiculous and LOSES the Conservatives support.
    The direction of movement is probably more important, ar.

    If manufacturing growth has been a problem - which it has in the UK - then arresting the decline and narrowing the gap between decline and growth is the first step in recovery.

    The fact remains that the UK figures show an improvement over the previous month whereas those in the US and China show a deterioration. Particularly remarkable when the UK is far more exposed to the recession in the EU than either the US or China.

    Incrememtal improvement, step by step, month by month in a counter direction to global trends is something to celebrate, ar.

    So rejoice at that news.

    Really Mr P just give it up, Osborne hasn't a clue about the manufacturing sector or how to get it moving. It simply annoys those of us who work in it when false bravado highlights how big a chasm there is in your understanding.
    That is unfair on George Osborne who has direct experience of his family building a successful manufacturing business. But that is not really the point.

    The recorded statistics are as close to 'facts' as we have and the March figures are a movement in the right direction. That much is incontestable.

    Of course much still remains to be done to rebalance the economy towards increased manufacturing exports and substitution of imports. But much is being done.

    George's job is not to understand the detail of manufacturing. That is your job.

    The Chancellor's job is to make the fiscal environment and macro-economic performance of the country more favourable for the manufacturing sector. This he is doing, albeit too slowly for your liking, but demonstrably moving in the right direction in difficult domestic and external conditions.

    On David Herdson's point, of course a single month's PMI statistics don't prove a case, but there are a whole number of other economic indicators which are currently providing evidence of the UK experiencing a gradual but sustained recovery in most sectors of the economy.

    An example would be the SWIFT Payments Index I quoted before the release of the Q1 GDP figures which was clearly indicating, from real business-to-business international payment transactions, that the UK was showing annual growth of 1.3%.

    It is far better to post the real statistics on PB and argue from that base than just bandy about prejudicial and qualitative assessments of Osborne's personality, background or schooling.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hampstead Heath would be a good spot for a couple of wind turbines.
  • wildly o/t
    Is there such a thing as 'judicial nominative determinism'?
    A case against Barnet Council being heard by a Justice Underhill

    http://www.times-series.co.uk/news/10392566.One_Barnet_campaigner_handed_more_taxpayer_funding/?ref=twtrec
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,691
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Boy George, Boy Genius

    How is the UK doing against the US and China?

    Well we might not have caught up yet but we are the only one of the three moving in the right direction.

    US manufacturing growth fell to 50.7 last month from 51.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), missing the 50.9 market estimate.

    A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

    The sector also weakened in China, falling to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March. The official purchasing managers’ index, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in below forecasts for a reading in line with the previous month.

    In the UK, manufacturing increased to 49.8 in April from 48.6 the previous month, revealed the Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. It beat analysts’ expectations for a reading of 48.5 but fell below the reading of 50 needed to indicate growth.


    Whatever would the country have done without Osborne?

    Avery you're embarrassing yourself.

    UK manufacturing DECREASED last month, that in China and the USA INCREASED. That their rate of gain compared to the UK slowed is true but they still increased their lead over us.

    Please give up the act Avery, it makes you look ridiculous and LOSES the Conservatives support.
    The direction of movement is probably more important, ar.

    If manufacturing growth has been a problem - which it has in the UK - then arresting the decline and narrowing the gap between decline and growth is the first step in recovery.

    The fact remains that the UK figures show an improvement over the previous month whereas those in the US and China show a deterioration. Particularly remarkable when the UK is far more exposed to the recession in the EU than either the US or China.

    Incrememtal improvement, step by step, month by month in a counter direction to global trends is something to celebrate, ar.

    So rejoice at that news.

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    Boy George, Boy Genius

    How is the UK doing against the US and China?

    Well we might not have caught up yet but we are the only one of the three moving in the right direction.

    US manufacturing growth fell to 50.7 last month from 51.3 in March, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), missing the 50.9 market estimate.

    A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

    The sector also weakened in China, falling to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March. The official purchasing managers’ index, released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, came in below forecasts for a reading in line with the previous month.

    In the UK, manufacturing increased to 49.8 in April from 48.6 the previous month, revealed the Markit Economics and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply. It beat analysts’ expectations for a reading of 48.5 but fell below the reading of 50 needed to indicate growth.


    Whatever would the country have done without Osborne?

    Avery you're embarrassing yourself.

    UK manufacturing DECREASED last month, that in China and the USA INCREASED. That their rate of gain compared to the UK slowed is true but they still increased their lead over us.

    Please give up the act Avery, it makes you look ridiculous and LOSES the Conservatives support.
    The direction of movement is probably more important, ar.

    If manufacturing growth has been a problem - which it has in the UK - then arresting the decline and narrowing the gap between decline and growth is the first step in recovery.

    The fact remains that the UK figures show an improvement over the previous month whereas those in the US and China show a deterioration. Particularly remarkable when the UK is far more exposed to the recession in the EU than either the US or China.

    Incrememtal improvement, step by step, month by month in a counter direction to global trends is something to celebrate, ar.

    So rejoice at that news.

    Really Mr P just give it up, Osborne hasn't a clue about the manufacturing sector or how to get it moving. It simply annoys those of us who work in it when false bravado highlights how big a chasm there is in your understanding.
    That is unfair on George Osborne who has direct experience of his family building a successful manufacturing business. But that is not really the point.

    The recorded statistics are as close to 'facts' as we have and the March figures are a movement in the right direction. That much is incontestable.

    Of course much still remains to be done to rebalance the economy towards increased manufacturing exports and substitution of imports. But much is being done.

    George's job is not to understand the detail of manufacturing. That is your job.

    The Chancellor's job is to make the fiscal environment and macro-economic performance of the country more favourable for the manufacturing sector. This he is doing, albeit too slowly for your liking, but demonstrably moving in the right direction in difficult domestic and external conditions.

    On David Herdson's point, of course a single month's PMI statistics don't prove a case, but there are a whole number of other economic indicators which are currently supporting a case for gradual but sustained recovery in most sectors of the economy.

    An example would be the SWIFT Payments Index I quoted before the release of the Q1 GDP figures which was clearly indicating, from real business-to-business international payment transactions, that the UK was showing annual growth of 1.3%.

    It is far better to post the real statistics on PB and argue from that base than just bandy about prejudicial and qualitative assessments of Osborne's personality, background or schooling.
    His personality, background and schooling are of little interest to me, his performace as CoE is, and he's not very good at it. I sometimes struggle to see the point of the "good news" posts ALP. You're sort of building up a following of PBers who are waiting to point out the flaws. The net result is that for every one post seeing GO is a genius you generate 3 or 4 saying he's useless.

    As for your claim on manufacturing as I have pointed out many times the whole push is just plain wrong. The focus on exports is just plain flawed it will take businesses up to 5 years to see the benefits of exports. if you don't have a sales network in a BRIC country you have to get one and then work your way in. Trying to do that in a world recession is idealistic to say the least. As I've stated numerous times the low hanging fruit are on import substiution. It's faster to deliver, the networks usually exist already and it has the same effect on jobs and BoP as indeed the report released this week highlighted.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10023999/UK-manufacturing-jobs-to-come-home-in-next-decade.html

    Of course you could have put reforms in place to accelerate the 200k jobs and £30bn boost to the BoP but you haven't. And since those are direct manufacturing jobs they will bring in 2-3 more in services on their back. But hey why do the simple thing when a consultant can sell you a cock and bull story.

  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900

    Millsy said:

    Re the local elections, here for comparison are the percentages (projected share) according to Wikipedia when Labour were last in opposition and the ComRes poll from yesterday:

    1981 1985 1989 1993 ComRes Lab 41 39 42 39 24 Con 38 32 36 31 31 LD 17 26 19 25 12 Ukip -- -- -- -- 22


    You're not comparing like with like.

    The 81-93 numbers are national equivalent projection not the actual votes.

    The ComRes is a poll only of people in areas which are voting this week and so 'biased' towards the Conservatives as the areas voting are more Conservatives than the country as a whole.

    For a rough national equivalent you need to knock about 10% of the combined Con/UKIP vote and add it to the Labour total.

    On Friday the BBC, R&T etc will give their national equivalent projections.

    If the Conservatives are under 30% they're in big trouble.
    Yes indeed, let's see what numbers they come up with and we can change the last column.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,638

    Windfarms are rather like HS2. Most people kind-of support it as long as they're not impacted by any of the direct adverse effects, and as long as they're not troubled by the finances.

    There are very few positive votes in the issue, though there are a larger number that can be lost by going ahead with either (or both). On the other hand, there are also votes to be lost by doing nothing - though they won't be lost until further in the future.

    Richard N sums it all up excellently early on in the thread.

    HS2 is estimated to cost the whole country over £30 billion pouinds, probably a lot more in practice, plus the annual subsidy to run it.

    So it is not an issue for NIMBYs, it is an issue for every taxpayer. The penny has not dropped yet. Poor taxpayers will be paying for rich business men's toy train set.

    And Crossrail is costing £15.9 billion, for something that advantages only London.

    Where were your complaints then?
    Not just London - it terminates in Berkshire one end and Essex at the other.
    It won't be long before they're London, and the M25 is the Inner Circular. ;-)
    Are you suggesting ripping up the M25 and converting it to a railway?

    :)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 41,864
    Is tim losing his touch? Surprised he hasn't mentioned this, and the parallels to our George. ;)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10030205/Ex-Christine-Lagarde-advisor-changed-fast-train-route-for-his-mother.html
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,638
    tim said:

    "If the Tories are under 30% they are in big trouble"

    Around 27 best guess.

    So Osborne blames Shapps
    Crosby blames Osborne
    Ashcroft blames Crosby
    Tebbit blames Ken Clarke and David Cameron
    The Mail and the Express blame the Chumocracy

    tim causes Kleenex shortage!!!
  • Peter_2Peter_2 Posts: 146
    edited May 2013
    RobD said:

    Is tim losing his touch? Surprised he hasn't mentioned this, and the parallels to our George. ;)

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/10030205/Ex-Christine-Lagarde-advisor-changed-fast-train-route-for-his-mother.html

    He's recovering form the fact that the Boston bombers were not far right extremists.
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 571
    Hello everyone, short visit as extremely busy tearing my hair out.
    However....
    1 it appears to be a common mistake to assume that people use reasoned thought processes to work out who they should vote for.
    It seems to me far more likely that people pick who to vote for and then retrospectively justify it to themselves.
    I am talking your average voter here, not committed anoraks of the pb fraternity.
    2 Why aren't there more watermills? Hydroelectric woefully underused.
    3 Anyone relying on UKIP to actually improve things (whatever "improve" means) if they get into power, will be woefully and inevitably disappointed.
    Changing anything via politics is a long hard road which requires a lot of slow hard and unremitting work. There are no quick fixes. We should grow up as a society and stop expecting them.

    No sign of any more holiday snaps from SeanT?
    And Mr Tyndall is posting again. Hello!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Windfarms are rather like HS2. Most people kind-of support it as long as they're not impacted by any of the direct adverse effects, and as long as they're not troubled by the finances.

    There are very few positive votes in the issue, though there are a larger number that can be lost by going ahead with either (or both). On the other hand, there are also votes to be lost by doing nothing - though they won't be lost until further in the future.

    Richard N sums it all up excellently early on in the thread.

    HS2 is estimated to cost the whole country over £30 billion pouinds, probably a lot more in practice, plus the annual subsidy to run it.

    So it is not an issue for NIMBYs, it is an issue for every taxpayer. The penny has not dropped yet. Poor taxpayers will be paying for rich business men's toy train set.

    And Crossrail is costing £15.9 billion, for something that advantages only London.

    Where were your complaints then?
    Not just London - it terminates in Berkshire one end and Essex at the other.
    It won't be long before they're London, and the M25 is the Inner Circular. ;-)
    Are you suggesting ripping up the M25 and converting it to a railway?

    :)
    Nonsense. London is going to be converted into a velodrome. The M25 will be built up, not ripped up.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,691
    @Mrs B

    "Changing anything via politics is a long hard road which requires a lot of slow hard and unremitting work. There are no quick fixes. We should grow up as a society and stop expecting them."

    Nobody's forcing politicians to make claims they can solve all our problems. As a society we'd be in a much better place if people were left to sort out their own issues. But I can't really see polticians not wanting to ramp themselves up and get themselves involved in things they shouldn't touch, can you ?
  • On topic,an interesting follow up question would be: if a windfarm was planned to be built near your house (within a mile), would you support it or oppose it? [I realise this might not work in say C London unless you built a windfarm in Hyde park]. I suspect the % in favour might drop sharply.

    In my experience, people are often in favour of infrastructure -roads, railways, airports, stadia, power stations - as long as it is nowhere near their house.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,334


    People were warned about Stafford, so they just massaged the figures.

    Link?

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 13,069

    On topic,an interesting follow up question would be: if a windfarm was planned to be built near your house (within a mile), would you support it or oppose it? .

    Would be also interesting to know if people would prefer a wind farm or a Nuclear power station.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited May 2013
    @Alanbrooke


    His personality, background and schooling are of little interest to me, his performace as CoE is, and he's not very good at it. I sometimes struggle to see the point of the "good news" posts ALP. You're sort of building up a following of PBers who are waiting to point out the flaws. The net result is that for every one post seeing GO is a genius you generate 3 or 4 saying he's useless.

    As for your claim on manufacturing as I have pointed out many times the whole push is just plain wrong. The focus on exports is just plain flawed it will take businesses up to 5 years to see the benefits of exports. if you don't have a sales network in a BRIC country you have to get one and then work your way in. Trying to do that in a world recession is idealistic to say the least. As I've stated numerous times the low hanging fruit are on import substiution. It's faster to deliver, the networks usually exist already and it has the same effect on jobs and BoP as indeed the report released this week highlighted.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10023999/UK-manufacturing-jobs-to-come-home-in-next-decade.html

    Of course you could have put reforms in place to accelerate the 200k jobs and £30bn boost to the BoP but you haven't. And since those are direct manufacturing jobs they will bring in 2-3 more in services on their back. But hey why do the simple thing when a consultant can sell you a cock and bull story.

    The "good news" wrapping is no more than provocative banter. What is important is what is inside the envelope, which I do try to keep factual and relevant.

    The argument for structural import substitution is fraught with difficulty. Yes, it increases domestic employment, reduces an economy's dependence on dominant but risky sectors (e.g. financial services in the UK) and spreads risks more evenly through an economy; and reduces inefficient transportation costs and pollution.

    But it also has a tendency to lower productivity and competitiveness; encourage protectionism; and to stifle innovation of process and product.

    It also needs to suit the economy for which it is being advocated. Would it be better to stimulate the agricultural sector in the UK to substitute food imports or to import more from agricultural economies to whom we can then export more value added manufactured goods?

    Taken to the extreme structural import substitution can lead to mass inefficiencies. My experience of the Soviet Union in its latter days saw young skilled and hard-working software engineers wasting months on replicating existing Western developments both to "save foreign currency expense" and, probably more truthfully, to continue a tradition of copy rather than invent established over decades of socialist isolation.

    The pendulum has now swung the other way and developed economies have been out-sourcing manufacturing to the China which should more properly have been retained locally. We have long reached the stage where the labour cost element of any manufactured good is far less significant than skills availability, labour flexibility and process engineering capability in the decision to outsource.

    These are micro-economic decisions taken at the enterprise level. Probably more important is the move by the leading western economies to eliminate protectionist global trade barriers and to discourage non-market based currency exchange management. Osborne incidentally led on these two subjects in his statement to the IMF, which is where he should be working.

    All this is not to say that the government should disregard the opportunities of stimulating import substitution, just that it is not a universal cure for our current economic ills and BoP deficits and there may be better paybacks for investing the taxpayer's pound.

    Upskilling through better education and training; increasing research and development spend on leading technologies; reducing tax burdens on labour and energy inputs; deregulating employment barriers to workplace flexibility; boosting supply of seedcorn investment funding to facilitate the route from 'invention to market' are all priority measures which the government should be (and are) implementing.

    Even so there remains a case for focussing on import substitution where it suits the economy and makes sense economically, I don't know what manufacturing sector you work in, but it would be interesting to hear a case being made for government intervention in a specific sector. Better that than debating the options for the widgets sector!

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,691
    edited May 2013
    AveryLP said:

    @Mr. Brooke



    His personality, background and schooling are of little interest to me, his performace as CoE is, and he's not very good at it. I sometimes struggle to see the point of the "good news" posts ALP. You're sort of building up a following of PBers who are waiting to point out the flaws. The net result is that for every one post seeing GO is a genius you generate 3 or 4 saying he's useless.

    As for your claim on manufacturing as I have pointed out many times the whole push is just plain wrong. The focus on exports is just plain flawed it will take businesses up to 5 years to see the benefits of exports. if you don't have a sales network in a BRIC country you have to get one and then work your way in. Trying to do that in a world recession is idealistic to say the least. As I've stated numerous times the low hanging fruit are on import substiution. It's faster to deliver, the networks usually exist already and it has the same effect on jobs and BoP as indeed the report released this week highlighted.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10023999/UK-manufacturing-jobs-to-come-home-in-next-decade.html

    Of course you could have put reforms in place to accelerate the 200k jobs and £30bn boost to the BoP but you haven't. And since those are direct manufacturing jobs they will bring in 2-3 more in services on their back. But hey why do the simple thing when a consultant can sell you a cock and bull story.

    The "good news" wrapping is no more than provocative banter. What is important is what is inside the envelope, which I do try to keep factual and relevant.

    The argument for structural import substitution is fraught with difficulty. Yes, it increases domestic employment, reduces an economy's dependence on dominant but risky sectors (e.g. financial services in the UK) and spreads risks more evenly through an economy; and reduces inefficient transportation costs and pollution.

    But it also has a tendency to lower productivity and competitiveness; encourage protectionism; and to stifle innovation of process and product.

    It also needs to suit the economy for which it is being advocated. Would it be better to stimulate the agricultural sector in the UK to substitute food imports or to import more from agricultural economies to whom we can then export more value added manufactured goods?

    Taken to the extreme structural import substitution can lead to mass inefficiencies. My experience of the Soviet Union in its latter days saw young skilled and hard-working software engineers wasting months on replicating existing Western developments both to "save foreign currency expense" and, probably more truthfully, to continue a tradition of copy rather than invent established over decades of socialist isolation.

    The pendulum has now swung the other way and developed economies have been out-sourcing manufacturing to the China which should more properly have been retained locally. We have long reached the stage where the labour cost element of any manufactured good is far less significant than skills availability, labour flexibility and process engineering capability in the decision to outsource.

    These are micro-economic decisions taken at the enterprise level. Probably more important is the move by the leading western economies to eliminate protectionist global trade barriers and to discourage non-market based currency exchange management. Osborne incidentally led on these two subjects in his statement to the IMF, which is where he should be working.

    All this is not to say that the government should disregard the opportunities of stimulating import substitution, just that it is not a universal cure for our current economic ills and BoP deficits and there may be better paybacks for investing the taxpayer's pound.

    Upskilling through better education and training; increasing research and development spend on leading technologies; reducing tax burdens on labour and energy inputs; deregulating employment barriers to workplace flexibility; boosting supply of seedcorn investment funding to facilitate the route from 'invention to market' are all priority measures which the government should be (and are) implementing.

    Even so there remains a case for focussing on import substitution where it suits the economy and makes sense economically, I don't know what manufacturing sector you work in, but it would be interesting to hear a case being made for government intervention in a specific sector. Better that than debating the options for the widgets sector!



    I take it you're speechless ? ;-)
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    AveryLP said:

    @Mr. Brooke



    His personality, background and schooling are of little interest to me, his performace as CoE is, and he's not very good at it. I sometimes struggle to see the point of the "good news" posts ALP. You're sort of building up a following of PBers who are waiting to point out the flaws. The net result is that for every one post seeing GO is a genius you generate 3 or 4 saying he's useless.

    As for your claim on manufacturing as I have pointed out many times the whole push is just plain wrong. The focus on exports is just plain flawed it will take businesses up to 5 years to see the benefits of exports. if you don't have a sales network in a BRIC country you have to get one and then work your way in. Trying to do that in a world recession is idealistic to say the least. As I've stated numerous times the low hanging fruit are on import substiution. It's faster to deliver, the networks usually exist already and it has the same effect on jobs and BoP as indeed the report released this week highlighted.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10023999/UK-manufacturing-jobs-to-come-home-in-next-decade.html

    Of course you could have put reforms in place to accelerate the 200k jobs and £30bn boost to the BoP but you haven't. And since those are direct manufacturing jobs they will bring in 2-3 more in services on their back. But hey why do the simple thing when a consultant can sell you a cock and bull story.

    The "good news" wrapping is no more than provocative banter. What is important is what is inside the envelope, which I do try to keep factual and relevant.

    The argument for structural import substitution is fraught with difficulty. Yes, it increases domestic employment, reduces an economy's dependence on dominant but risky sectors (e.g. financial services in the UK) and spreads risks more evenly through an economy; and reduces inefficient transportation costs and pollution.

    But it also has a tendency to lower productivity and competitiveness; encourage protectionism; and to stifle innovation of process and product.

    It also needs to suit the economy for which it is being advocated. Would it be better to stimulate the agricultural sector in the UK to substitute food imports or to import more from agricultural economies to whom we can then export more value added manufactured goods?

    Taken to the extreme structural import substitution can lead to mass inefficiencies. My experience of the Soviet Union in its latter days saw young skilled and hard-working software engineers wasting months on replicating existing Western developments both to "save foreign currency expense" and, probably more truthfully, to continue a tradition of copy rather than invent established over decades of socialist isolation.

    The pendulum has now swung the other way and developed economies have been out-sourcing manufacturing to the China which should more properly have been retained locally. We have long reached the stage where the labour cost element of any manufactured good is far less significant than skills availability, labour flexibility and process engineering capability in the decision to outsource.

    These are micro-economic decisions taken at the enterprise level. Probably more important is the move by the leading western economies to eliminate protectionist global trade barriers and to discourage non-market based currency exchange management. Osborne incidentally led on these two subjects in his statement to the IMF, which is where he should be working.

    All this is not to say that the government should disregard the opportunities of stimulating import substitution, just that it is not a universal cure for our current economic ills and BoP deficits and there may be better paybacks for investing the taxpayer's pound.

    Upskilling through better education and training; increasing research and development spend on leading technologies; reducing tax burdens on labour and energy inputs; deregulating employment barriers to workplace flexibility; boosting supply of seedcorn investment funding to facilitate the route from 'invention to market' are all priority measures which the government should be (and are) implementing.

    Even so there remains a case for focussing on import substitution where it suits the economy and makes sense economically, I don't know what manufacturing sector you work in, but it would be interesting to hear a case being made for government intervention in a specific sector. Better that than debating the options for the widgets sector!

    I take it you're speechless ? ;-)

    I have been gagged by a blockquote tag!

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,129
    edited May 2013
    Some of the Labour MPs spotted on South Shields doorstep in the last 2 weeks...

    many from North East as expected (the 2 Newcastle women, Ian Mearns, Dave Anderson, Phil Wilson, Iain "From Hartlepool for Hartlepool" Wright, Kevan Jones, Pat Glass, Bridget Philipson, Roberta Blackman Woods, Julie Elliott, Sharon Hodgson.......some of them were there more than once, for ex those from Gateshead and Sunderland where there are no local elections)

    coming from other regions

    Dan Jarvis, Emily Thornberry, Heidi Alexander from Lewisham, the MP for Leicester South, the Corby guy, Sheila Gilmore (Edinburgh East), the MP for Blaenau Gwent

    Frontbenchers: EdM, EdB, Yvette and Harriet.
  • O/T

    Mourinho for Chelsea looks like a done deal with BetVictor pricing him at 1/20, with the field on offer at 25/1 bar him.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 13,618

    On topic,an interesting follow up question would be: if a windfarm was planned to be built near your house (within a mile), would you support it or oppose it? [I realise this might not work in say C London unless you built a windfarm in Hyde park]. I suspect the % in favour might drop sharply.

    In my experience, people are often in favour of infrastructure -roads, railways, airports, stadia, power stations - as long as it is nowhere near their house.

    I shouldn't think many urban dwellers care about anything more than a few hundred metres away. They can build anything they like a mile away, from a sewer farm down to a relocated Conservative Central Office, it'd be perfectly OK with me. But I'd positively like to have a windfarm nearby.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    Windfarms are rather like HS2. Most people kind-of support it as long as they're not impacted by any of the direct adverse effects, and as long as they're not troubled by the finances.

    There are very few positive votes in the issue, though there are a larger number that can be lost by going ahead with either (or both). On the other hand, there are also votes to be lost by doing nothing - though they won't be lost until further in the future.

    Richard N sums it all up excellently early on in the thread.

    HS2 is estimated to cost the whole country over £30 billion pouinds, probably a lot more in practice, plus the annual subsidy to run it.

    So it is not an issue for NIMBYs, it is an issue for every taxpayer. The penny has not dropped yet. Poor taxpayers will be paying for rich business men's toy train set.

    And Crossrail is costing £15.9 billion, for something that advantages only London.

    Where were your complaints then?
    Not just London - it terminates in Berkshire one end and Essex at the other.
    It won't be long before they're London, and the M25 is the Inner Circular. ;-)
    Are you suggesting ripping up the M25 and converting it to a railway?

    :)
    Let the motorists have their slow, congested roads whilst we travel on our Zil-lines!

    Talking of which, a story that combines my namesake's father, my beloved Derbyshire, industrial archaeology and railways.

    I nearly self-combusted in an explosion of man-milk:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2317691/Worlds-oldest-railway-tunnel-hidden-rockery-36-years-discovered-10ft-underground-garden.html

    (Includes a picture of the construction of St Pancras that I had never seen before)
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 10,098
    tim said:

    The Tory circular firing squad begins to form

    @IndyPolitics: Tories brace for major losses in local elections amid dismay over Ukip growth http://t.co/24MCuJQgZN

    Eton Rifles.


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,638
    Carola said:

    Avery you're like the Terminator (T-800, obv) and Osborne's the young John Connor.

    "Hasta la Vista, Avery!"
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    Freggles said:


    People were warned about Stafford, so they just massaged the figures.

    Link?

    http://www.lrb.co.uk/v35/n07/paul-taylor/rigging-the-death-rate

    The title: "Rigging the death rate" is a good start.

    It's a very good article, which goes into the pre-Stafford scandals of Bristol in 1991-5 and Cardiff in 1967 (the latter inquiry chaired by a certain Geoffrey Howe. Whatever happened to him?)

    And this from Private Eye:

    http://drphilhammond.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Private-Eye-mid-staffs-final.pdf

    Which is why I say, if we do not learn the lessons, we will be discussing something similar in another twenty years. Especially if we do not learn how to treat whistleblowers (and the answer is not to buy them off).
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    Sean_F said:

    http://heresycorner.blogspot.com/2013/04/explaining-peace-paradox.html

    The Heretic, who is very reliable when it comes to statistics, has a useful article here about violent crime. There is (qualified) good news. Violent crime rose relentlessly after 1950, and peaked between 2000-05, before dropping sharply. But, it remains well above the levels of 50-60 years ago. The rise and fall in rates of homicide over the same period has been less dramatic (one reason being that surgeons became much better at saving lives over the period) but it too peaked between 2000-05, before falling sharply. Overall, Britain is probably as peaceful now as it was in mid-Victorian times, but less peaceful than in the mid-twentieth century. Even mid-Victorian Britain was very peaceful by comparison with Britain in 1600, and still more, Britain in 1300.

    So according to the political class violent crime peaked just before the political class opened the borders and has been going down since.

    Do the political class' stats include the industrial scale child abuse aka grooming?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 5,755
    And remember the poll is based on 56% of sample voting with men outnumbering women by 3 to 2 at the polling stations

    Neither of those factors will happen. Turnout will be 30-35% with the number of women voters probably exceeding the men.

    HYUFD said:

    Based on the Comres poll out yesterday, it looks like....


    The most important words to focus on in your comment are the first five We shall soon see if its Comres or Comedy results.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,955
    Good evening, everyone.

    Ha, just got the one comment on my mini-review, and it's spam. Oh well. At least the levels have died down significantly.

    Bah to the question and humbug to the answer. Wind is a stupid form of energy to try and harness. Nuclear and coal are far superior and if renewables are the question then hydro-electric should be the answer (obviously geothermal's the best but you can't just make that). And whatever happened to biomass?
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    http://www.bmj.com/content/325/7365/615.2.extract

    "Medical advances mask epidemic of violence by cutting murder rate"

    "Murder rates would be up to five times higher than they are but for medical developments over the past 40 years."

    The study is based on US data and yanqui plod i know say it's prob not 5 times because serious gangsters started using more lethal ammo to compensate - but that doesn't really apply here.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,638

    Windfarms are rather like HS2. Most people kind-of support it as long as they're not impacted by any of the direct adverse effects, and as long as they're not troubled by the finances.

    There are very few positive votes in the issue, though there are a larger number that can be lost by going ahead with either (or both). On the other hand, there are also votes to be lost by doing nothing - though they won't be lost until further in the future.

    Richard N sums it all up excellently early on in the thread.

    HS2 is estimated to cost the whole country over £30 billion pouinds, probably a lot more in practice, plus the annual subsidy to run it.

    So it is not an issue for NIMBYs, it is an issue for every taxpayer. The penny has not dropped yet. Poor taxpayers will be paying for rich business men's toy train set.

    And Crossrail is costing £15.9 billion, for something that advantages only London.

    Where were your complaints then?
    Not just London - it terminates in Berkshire one end and Essex at the other.
    It won't be long before they're London, and the M25 is the Inner Circular. ;-)
    Are you suggesting ripping up the M25 and converting it to a railway?

    :)
    Let the motorists have their slow, congested roads whilst we travel on our Zil-lines!

    Talking of which, a story that combines my namesake's father, my beloved Derbyshire, industrial archaeology and railways.

    I nearly self-combusted in an explosion of man-milk:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2317691/Worlds-oldest-railway-tunnel-hidden-rockery-36-years-discovered-10ft-underground-garden.html

    (Includes a picture of the construction of St Pancras that I had never seen before)
    Great stuff, Josias! You can still see the Butterley nameplates at the base of each arch on the top deck of St Pancras to this day! They do however say 1867, rather than 1868, which was the year the station was opened by the Midland.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited May 2013


    Certainty to vote and did you actually vote last time in council elections must be a big influence.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,691
    edited May 2013
    @ Avery

    I suspect the thread's getting too long for it's own good so I shall start afresh.

    I've heard your arguments before of course, but as ever they are not to be looked at in isolation. Import substituion if managed correctly is a stimulus to the economy. Your offer at the moment is to say it's better to have someone sat on the dole than doing a job you consider "low productivity". I think that's a nonsense not having people in work is the lowest form of productivity I can think of. And at the moment with 2+ million unemployed that's what you're offering. Why you'd rather tax businesses more than you have to or see people stuck in the mire I can't fathom.

    The crux of the issue comes back to why is the UK losing it's manufacturing competitiveness ? We lost about 1 million jobs under Labour most of them needlessly since the hubris of City fever and new economy meant people lost track of what mattered and they gave up on businesses they should have kept. While you tell me about Soviet engineers being wasted, I feel we have pretty much the same problem here only we send ours to be lawyers and accountannts; we have 13 times more accountants than Germany and we're a smaller economy.

    Since you love your stats I suggest you maybe start to look at them constructively and question why do we buy abroad. large chunks of what we import are mid tech products from medium to high cost countries. There's not a wage issue the issues are more ones of capital allowances, energy costs, infrastructure, R&D accessability, supply chains, education and training. You appear to recognise some of this but there is not much substantive GO has done. I would give HMG credit for NI reform, lowering tax rates and tightening up on no win no fee, not much else comes to mind. Additionally you have missed out that in some cases we've let whole sectors go just to suit a multinational who doesn't pay tax in this country. It's great for the MN but crap for the country. As an example five years ago we had 3 van manufacturers in this country Ford, LDV and Vauxhall. Next year we'll only have one, ( Ford's gone to Turkey, LDV to China ) yet we'll still need vans so how are we going to pay for the imports ? In the Mrs T days someone in the DTI would have got off their ass and tried to attract a producer today we don't really bother. Partly it's because those widgets you laugh at aren't seen as sexy. But in complex products, they're the backbone of the supply chain and essential. increasingly these days what they sell isn't a casting or a plastic moulding it's a JIT, quality assured product backed up by an engineering team. While that may not be to everyone's taste it's probably more skilled than what most people in an office do.

    So overall MrP I remain to be convinced that HMG has joined up the dots. yes export is important I've done enough of it in my time and it's not without its glamour and also its problems. But personally I think we can fill our financial holes quicker by looking at home than the long trek overseas, Since you're a stats freak perhaps you can explain why nearly all UK supermarket own brand jam is made in Belgium ? It can't be labour cost or climate. Likewise I don't think its cost I always buy home produced where I can and I can get a pretty good product in Waitrose or M&S for the same price sometimes cheaper. If you can answer that I might apply to you for a grant to open a jam factory - assuming there are any lending banks.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 268
    South Shields election game predictions

    Many thanks and good luck to everyone who took part - with 82 entries, 3 players plumped for UKIP, while the average prediction was a Labour majority of 6,490.

    The full list is available on the site:

    http://www.electiongame.co.uk/

    Really looking forward to tomorrow's elections, not least the county councils - will the "Sage of Hersham" be dipping into his liquid funds after the results are in to settle our bet?

    For any of you who haven't discovered it, Andrew Teale's local election site is outstanding:

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/

    Thanks and don't forget to vote tomorrow if you have one!

    Cheers,


    DC
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348

    Windfarms are rather like HS2. Most people kind-of support it as long as they're not impacted by any of the direct adverse effects, and as long as they're not troubled by the finances.

    There are very few positive votes in the issue, though there are a larger number that can be lost by going ahead with either (or both). On the other hand, there are also votes to be lost by doing nothing - though they won't be lost until further in the future.

    Richard N sums it all up excellently early on in the thread.

    HS2 is estimated to cost the whole country over £30 billion pouinds, probably a lot more in practice, plus the annual subsidy to run it.

    So it is not an issue for NIMBYs, it is an issue for every taxpayer. The penny has not dropped yet. Poor taxpayers will be paying for rich business men's toy train set.

    And Crossrail is costing £15.9 billion, for something that advantages only London.

    Where were your complaints then?
    Not just London - it terminates in Berkshire one end and Essex at the other.
    It won't be long before they're London, and the M25 is the Inner Circular. ;-)
    Are you suggesting ripping up the M25 and converting it to a railway?

    :)
    Let the motorists have their slow, congested roads whilst we travel on our Zil-lines!

    Talking of which, a story that combines my namesake's father, my beloved Derbyshire, industrial archaeology and railways.

    I nearly self-combusted in an explosion of man-milk:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2317691/Worlds-oldest-railway-tunnel-hidden-rockery-36-years-discovered-10ft-underground-garden.html

    (Includes a picture of the construction of St Pancras that I had never seen before)
    Great stuff, Josias! You can still see the Butterley nameplates at the base of each arch on the top deck of St Pancras to this day! They do however say 1867, rather than 1868, which was the year the station was opened by the Midland.
    Thanks. The reason for the discrepancy in years is simple to explain: we Derbyshire folk got the ironwork done on time. We can;t help it if the erectors were laggardly Londoners. ;-)

    I used to wander around the Butterley works occasionally when I was a kid. It was wonderful. (My dad may not be an MP, a high-flyer or well connected, but he did not half get me into some amazing places if you like heavy engineering).

    The Butterley company went a few years ago, shortly after completing the Falkirk Wheel. They are missed.

    But they were not the only noteworthy Derbyshire iron foundry - you can still find Andrew Handyside's work all over the place, including the Trent Bridge and Wilford Toll Bridge in Nottingham.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Handyside_and_Company
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Any polls coming out tonight ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,503
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MrJones said:

    http://www.bmj.com/content/325/7365/615.2.extract

    "Medical advances mask epidemic of violence by cutting murder rate"

    "Murder rates would be up to five times higher than they are but for medical developments over the past 40 years."

    The study is based on US data and yanqui plod i know say it's prob not 5 times because serious gangsters started using more lethal ammo to compensate - but that doesn't really apply here.

    Similar stats for surgical outcomes do apply to knife wounds, a good number of previous murders may now be charged as GBH, because the victim survived.

    Anecdotally, the casual but often serious assaults outside pubs seem less common than when I started my career a few decades ago. I think less common to see victims of domestic abuse and racial assaults, which seem pretty rare now. Maybe it's just Leicester.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:
    Is he on 35 % though ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    HYUFD said:

    Hollande would now lose to Le Pen in first round of French presidential election

    Ah, that's why Miliband is trying really hard to lose to Farage...
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,334

    Freggles said:


    People were warned about Stafford, so they just massaged the figures.

    Link?

    http://www.lrb.co.uk/v35/n07/paul-taylor/rigging-the-death-rate

    The title: "Rigging the death rate" is a good start.

    It's a very good article, which goes into the pre-Stafford scandals of Bristol in 1991-5 and Cardiff in 1967 (the latter inquiry chaired by a certain Geoffrey Howe. Whatever happened to him?)

    And this from Private Eye:

    http://drphilhammond.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Private-Eye-mid-staffs-final.pdf

    Which is why I say, if we do not learn the lessons, we will be discussing something similar in another twenty years. Especially if we do not learn how to treat whistleblowers (and the answer is not to buy them off).
    No smoking gun in there, just innuendo. In fact the second article points out:
    at it came down to a coding problem.”
    "In March 2007, the Department of Health
    under Nicholson had relaxed the rules on
    palliative care coding, meaning any patient
    who had an “incurable illness” could be given
    the palliative care code"

    I think they were wrong to look to the stats rather than look to the stats AND their practices, but where are the hard facts of unnecessary deaths? You can't just go off the HSMR and SHMI, you have to see the actual case notes.

    Stafford's poor quality of care and shocking lack of dignity for patients was bad enough without trying to make it look like a killing field without evidence.
  • carlcarl Posts: 750
    TGOHF said:

    Any polls coming out tonight ?

    If Murdoch's daily YouGov poll is good for the Tories then yes.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 32,638
    @JosiasJessop

    Sent you a PM - sorry for the delay in getting back to you, didn't get a notification email for some reason!
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    http://www.bmj.com/content/325/7365/615.2.extract

    "Medical advances mask epidemic of violence by cutting murder rate"

    "Murder rates would be up to five times higher than they are but for medical developments over the past 40 years."

    The study is based on US data and yanqui plod i know say it's prob not 5 times because serious gangsters started using more lethal ammo to compensate - but that doesn't really apply here.

    Similar stats for surgical outcomes do apply to knife wounds, a good number of previous murders may now be charged as GBH, because the victim survived.

    Anecdotally, the casual but often serious assaults outside pubs seem less common than when I started my career a few decades ago. I think less common to see victims of domestic abuse and racial assaults, which seem pretty rare now. Maybe it's just Leicester.
    Yeah i meant with knives if the stats said it was 5 times worse then it was probably correct. With guns it might only be 3-4 times worse because of serious people using hollow points or whatever.

    I don't know if the latter point is true or not - just something i was told.
  • MarkJMarkJ Posts: 6
    Interesting to read the story of Butterley - it is certainly a contender for the title of oldest tunnel. However, Dial Wood Tunnel in Flockton, Yorkshire, between Huddersfield and Wakefield on a tramway opened by 1775 may well therefore be even older but documentary or map evidence is lacking.
    (Mark Jones - author of "Discovering Britain's First Railways")
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 51,955
    Welcome to pb, Mr. Jones.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Yay for Leveson (if you are a copper up on a charge) - well done Hugh Grant.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/leveson-inquiry/10031971/Warwickshire-Police-open-justice-row-after-charged-officer-not-named.html

    "Warwickshire Police today refused to name a retired officer who was charged with stealing £113,000 from the constabulary's former headquarters in Leek Wooton.

    Critics attacked the astonishing development, understood to be the first in the country, arguing it raised fundamental questions about the laws of open justice.

    Senior officers claimed the policy was “recently” introduced in the wake of the Leveson inquiry into press standards and denied claims it was covering up the allegations."
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523

    MrJones said:

    http://www.bmj.com/content/325/7365/615.2.extract

    "Medical advances mask epidemic of violence by cutting murder rate"

    "Murder rates would be up to five times higher than they are but for medical developments over the past 40 years."

    The study is based on US data and yanqui plod i know say it's prob not 5 times because serious gangsters started using more lethal ammo to compensate - but that doesn't really apply here.

    Similar stats for surgical outcomes do apply to knife wounds, a good number of previous murders may now be charged as GBH, because the victim survived.

    Anecdotally, the casual but often serious assaults outside pubs seem less common than when I started my career a few decades ago. I think less common to see victims of domestic abuse and racial assaults, which seem pretty rare now. Maybe it's just Leicester.
    There are cultural differences in the patterns for sure. Some places one thing can be going up while next door it's going down.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Fancy a slice of tomorrow's Tele front page ?

  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,117
    edited May 2013
    I'd hope Hollande wouldn't in fact lose out to Le Pen, he's been pretty hopeless but she is awful in a different magnitude.

    His nickname was I believe "Flanby" which is a brand of caramel custard ( rough translation Mr Wobbly I guess). Thus far he's been IMO a prime example of wrong man in right place at right time when Strauss K self destructed leaving him candidate against an unpopular incumbent faute de mieux.
  • rogerhrogerh Posts: 282
    For any of you who haven't discovered it, Andrew Teale's local election site is outstanding:

    http://www.andrewteale.me.uk/leap/

    It certainly is.TYhe problem of visiting all the Cindividual is tyat foramats are different and it is very time consuming seraching and looking.The easy to use scroll down with votes and Share for eacheward is graet for picking outmarginals and looking at translating swing into seat changes.wil be asy forcomaring to tomorrow nights results.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,334
    TGOHF said:

    Fancy a slice of tomorrow's Tele front page ?

    Imagine if it was Cameron with the pint and Private Eye. Just awkward.

    Surprised about the Cable defending stay-at-home mothers bit, though!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,503
    welshhowl/ScottP/TGHOF - Indeed, but the election is not until 2017 so plenty of time yet
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    HYUFD said:

    welshhowl/ScottP/TGHOF - Indeed, but the election is not until 2017 so plenty of time yet


    Le Pen vs Sarko's replacement in the run off ?


  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 24,348
    MarkJ said:

    Interesting to read the story of Butterley - it is certainly a contender for the title of oldest tunnel. However, Dial Wood Tunnel in Flockton, Yorkshire, between Huddersfield and Wakefield on a tramway opened by 1775 may well therefore be even older but documentary or map evidence is lacking.
    (Mark Jones - author of "Discovering Britain's First Railways")

    Welcome to PB, Mr Jones.

    I've just ordered your book.

    Being a native Derbyshire man, I would have to try to find a way that your mere northern interloper does not count. Perhaps it's not long enough. Or it was a tramway as opposed to... a tramway. Or something. ;-)

    In all seriousness, I've been doing a little part-time project to map lots of the early waggonways and railways, up to my namesake's Cromford and High Peak. As you can imagine, it's not very easy, either to try to find data or the routes.
  • MarkJMarkJ Posts: 6
    Thanks Morris Dancer - by the way I've had some amazingly young canvassers knocking on my door tonight. I thought they were friends of my teenage son or lads playing knock and run until I answered the door and they asked who I was voting for tomorrow!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 20,691
    TGOHF said:

    HYUFD said:

    welshhowl/ScottP/TGHOF - Indeed, but the election is not until 2017 so plenty of time yet


    Le Pen vs Sarko's replacement in the run off ?


    I suspect dearest Marine would be having quite a cat fight with Frau Merkel since she's not a big fan of L'Europe.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,503
    TGHOF - Sarko is going to be caught in his corruption case, and Le Cope and Fillon are both more interested in fighting each other than Hollande, so provided Hollande sees off Le Pen (another recent poll had them tied) he could be re-elected by defaut!
  • Jonathan said:

    On topic,an interesting follow up question would be: if a windfarm was planned to be built near your house (within a mile), would you support it or oppose it? .

    Would be also interesting to know if people would prefer a wind farm or a Nuclear power station.
    I think for a lot of people you say nuclear and they think Chernobyl so I'm sure the wind farm would win comfortably. Of course, if you were unemployed you should plump for the nuclear plant as it is more likely to provide jobs. Interestingly I do actually live a mile from a power plant - Didcot - the towers are somewhat ugly but are also something of a local landmark. Some people call them the Cathedral of the Vale and will be sad when they are demolished.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 65,503
    rogerh - Indeed, I was at uni with Andrew Teale, a very interesting and knowledgeable guy!
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,129
    Labour selection timetable to succeed Glenda Jackson

    HAMPSTEAD & KILBURN
    AWS SELECTION
    Applications Close: 27 May 2013
    Meet the Candidates: 9 June 2013
    Shortlisting Interviews: 23 June 2013
    Selection meeting and count: Sunday 14 July 2013
    Procedure Secretary: David Queen
This discussion has been closed.