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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 73,324
    Nationalist blog Wings Over Scotland lays into Sturgeon, the Scottish government and civil service after the Salmond acquittal

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/an-innocent-man/
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,346
    Is it possible for an army officer to be head of the government? I thought Eisenhower had to resign prior to taking office, for example.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,050
    Scott_xP said:
    Did we "learn" that or was it already blatantly obvious to anybody with two brain cells to rub together?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,025
    DavidL said:

    Gordon Jackson is a phenomenal criminal lawyer but this must be close to his greatest triumph. His jury speech seems to have swung it. Something just didn't smell right he said. Not going to waste my breath saying he is a nice man. But he is facing serious criminal charges in the High Court.

    Or to paraphrase the late great Johnnie -

    The man's a shit. But you must acquit.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 33,948
    Scott_xP said:
    Sensible proposition
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,382
    TGOHF666 said:

    Italy

    Currently positive: 50418 (+3780 net increase)
    including 3204 in ICU

    Deaths: 602
    Healed: 408

    Total new cases: 4789 (1555 of them in Lombardia)

    Any breakdown of the deaths/cases - has the Chinese community been hardest hit ?
    They only gave breakdown by age and gender.

    The areas hit hard don't have particularly large Chinese communities.
    Prato with 25,000 Chineses out of 195,000 population only had 111 cases overall until yesterday
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 716

    Deafbloke said:

    Can anyone explain what is happening in Iran? If the Imperial model is correct, surely deaths should be spiralling out of control to 500k or more?
    1. There is no lockdown (but some closures)
    2. Health service is limited with equipment shortages etc.
    3. Outbreak took off before Italy
    4. Ok, official numbers are suspect, but they would need to be wrong for deaths by orders of magnitude. Evidence for this would be appearing.

    There was a very good article, recently, using other indicators/statistics that their reported cases was out by at least an order of magnitude.
    I have felt since the China experience that this virus last 3-4 months in each Country. I realise that China employed extraordinary measures in Wuhan but the virus was in other areas and for it to just disappear must mean its shelf life in each country is limited.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,932

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    281 (Sunday's total) + 54 = 335

    So 54 = 46 (Eng.) + 8 (other parts of UK)

    would be my interpretation of that.
    Its key to remember again that is deaths with Covid 19, not necessarily because of Covid 19
    I would be cautious. Until we get testing up to speed and enough reagents to test more patients, we may be significantly under measuring too.
    I will just post this graph again from the ONS

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    2014/15 Excess Winter deaths were 44000, thats between 400-500 extra deaths eaxh day. It didn't even make the news.
    Actually, it was in the news quite a bit! "Winter pressures" and "trolley waits" etc.

    If in the end the mortality is in 5 figures or less, that will be because of the measures that we take, not that there was no threat in the first place.

    Possibly, but we have destroyed the world economy for Covid 19 but did abolutely nothing for that outbreak of nasty flu in 2015.
    Did the news in February 2015 start each night with 500 people have died today of flu bringing the total this winter to 35,000?
    I think you might be missing the point

    Ask yourself why China, a country not known to overly care about its people acted in a way that severely impacted its economy.
  • Merkel has tested negative for CV, after her doctor contracted it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,346

    Scott_xP said:
    Sensible proposition
    Given immigration is going to be at absolute zero for the foreseeable, I think there are better things the government could be spending their time on.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,458

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:
    I do wonder whether the "everything the UK does is shit" crowd will stop posting these comparisons now that the UK is following a lower mortality path...
    Signs are optimistic but you're counting your chickens a bit here. There's quite a lot of variability in the numbers. Italy had- proportionately- a big leap from March 7th to 8th, a multiple of 1.57. That's much higher than they had in the previous few days, and much higher than they had since then, when the rate was closer to 1.3, dropping down to 1.2 or lower. It essentially meant they gained around 2 normal days worth of deaths in that one day. Since we didn't have an equivalent leap, it's quite expected that we'd go from +14 to +15 days as a result.

    Of course it may well be that over the next few days our numbers will continue to be better than their equivalent numbers after that one outlier, and so our line will continue to diverge from theirs. But let's not jump to conclusions yet.
    Indeed, it might just be the weekend effect on lab capacity, but hopefully a real trend.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,682
    Andrew said:

    Italy daily growth rate drops again, to +8%. Fantastic.

    Absolutely. Worth a thread of its own.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    Scott_xP said:
    Scott fails to understand a flexible system is flexible.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,265
    Italy's figures are starting to look promising:

  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,346
    edited March 23
    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    281 (Sunday's total) + 54 = 335

    So 54 = 46 (Eng.) + 8 (other parts of UK)

    would be my interpretation of that.
    Its key to remember again that is deaths with Covid 19, not necessarily because of Covid 19
    I would be cautious. Until we get testing up to speed and enough reagents to test more patients, we may be significantly under measuring too.
    I will just post this graph again from the ONS

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    2014/15 Excess Winter deaths were 44000, thats between 400-500 extra deaths eaxh day. It didn't even make the news.
    Actually, it was in the news quite a bit! "Winter pressures" and "trolley waits" etc.

    If in the end the mortality is in 5 figures or less, that will be because of the measures that we take, not that there was no threat in the first place.

    Possibly, but we have destroyed the world economy for Covid 19 but did abolutely nothing for that outbreak of nasty flu in 2015.
    Did the news in February 2015 start each night with 500 people have died today of flu bringing the total this winter to 35,000?
    I think you might be missing the point

    Ask yourself why China, a country not known to overly care about its people acted in a way that severely impacted its economy.
    Missing the point by a mile. Deaths would be nowhere near 500/day if there weren't attempts to slow the transmission of the disease.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,553

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    281 (Sunday's total) + 54 = 335

    So 54 = 46 (Eng.) + 8 (other parts of UK)

    would be my interpretation of that.
    Its key to remember again that is deaths with Covid 19, not necessarily because of Covid 19
    I would be cautious. Until we get testing up to speed and enough reagents to test more patients, we may be significantly under measuring too.
    I will just post this graph again from the ONS

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    2014/15 Excess Winter deaths were 44000, thats between 400-500 extra deaths eaxh day. It didn't even make the news.
    Actually, it was in the news quite a bit! "Winter pressures" and "trolley waits" etc.

    If in the end the mortality is in 5 figures or less, that will be because of the measures that we take, not that there was no threat in the first place.

    Possibly, but we have destroyed the world economy for Covid 19 but did abolutely nothing for that outbreak of nasty flu in 2015.
    Did the news in February 2015 start each night with 500 people have died today of flu bringing the total this winter to 35,000?
    Were Imperial College predicting 510,000 deaths if steps were not taken to mitigate the flu in 2015?

    Seriously, are you unaware of that prediction, or do you think it wrong, or do you think it irrelevant? Whether you are a troll, or genuinely unable to take that point on board, can I politely suggest that your posts add very little value to the debate and would be better discontinued?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 5,807
    Scott_xP said:
    I think Priti's 'points-based system' will be stone dead after this - when it's revealed how many wouldn't have been on the frontline had it been in place now.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,458
    Floater said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    281 (Sunday's total) + 54 = 335

    So 54 = 46 (Eng.) + 8 (other parts of UK)

    would be my interpretation of that.
    Its key to remember again that is deaths with Covid 19, not necessarily because of Covid 19
    I would be cautious. Until we get testing up to speed and enough reagents to test more patients, we may be significantly under measuring too.
    I will just post this graph again from the ONS

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    2014/15 Excess Winter deaths were 44000, thats between 400-500 extra deaths eaxh day. It didn't even make the news.
    Actually, it was in the news quite a bit! "Winter pressures" and "trolley waits" etc.

    If in the end the mortality is in 5 figures or less, that will be because of the measures that we take, not that there was no threat in the first place.

    Possibly, but we have destroyed the world economy for Covid 19 but did abolutely nothing for that outbreak of nasty flu in 2015.
    Did the news in February 2015 start each night with 500 people have died today of flu bringing the total this winter to 35,000?
    I think you might be missing the point

    Ask yourself why China, a country not known to overly care about its people acted in a way that severely impacted its economy.
    The loss of 21 million Chinese mobile phone accounts is an interesting stat, particularly as an account is more or less compulsory.

    It may just reflect financial stress though, and migrant workers cancelling duplicate work accounts.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 750
    One roll every twelve days?!! What planet are these people on!

    https://thepooptool.com/

    I need my 10,000 rolls.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 33,948
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Sensible proposition
    Given immigration is going to be at absolute zero for the foreseeable, I think there are better things the government could be spending their time on.
    Just Scott cannot help himself - nobody is listening Scott
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,725
    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:
    I do wonder whether the "everything the UK does is shit" crowd will stop posting these comparisons now that the UK is following a lower mortality path...
    Signs are optimistic but you're counting your chickens a bit here. There's quite a lot of variability in the numbers. Italy had- proportionately- a big leap from March 7th to 8th, a multiple of 1.57. That's much higher than they had in the previous few days, and much higher than they had since then, when the rate was closer to 1.3, dropping down to 1.2 or lower. It essentially meant they gained around 2 normal days worth of deaths in that one day. Since we didn't have an equivalent leap, it's quite expected that we'd go from +14 to +15 days as a result.

    Of course it may well be that over the next few days our numbers will continue to be better than their equivalent numbers after that one outlier, and so our line will continue to diverge from theirs. But let's not jump to conclusions yet.
    Indeed, it might just be the weekend effect on lab capacity, but hopefully a real trend.
    These figures seem to be like daily opinion polls in the time before elections - every day is the same, you don't know what the figures portend until the next polls come out, and so on until election day or in this case we are all either cured or dead.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 3,682

    Italy's figures are starting to look promising:

    Paging @rcs1000 – he called this right a fortnight ago when few, if any, were willing to believe it
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,346
    edited March 23

    Scott_xP said:
    I think Priti's 'points-based system' will be stone dead after this - when it's revealed how many wouldn't have been on the frontline had it been in place now.
    Unless the plan was to deport people who had already entered under the previous system, I don't see how that is relevant. If there is a need for additional workers in a given category, quotas etc. can be changed.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,553

    Deafbloke said:

    Can anyone explain what is happening in Iran? If the Imperial model is correct, surely deaths should be spiralling out of control to 500k or more?
    1. There is no lockdown (but some closures)
    2. Health service is limited with equipment shortages etc.
    3. Outbreak took off before Italy
    4. Ok, official numbers are suspect, but they would need to be wrong for deaths by orders of magnitude. Evidence for this would be appearing.

    There was a very good article, recently, using other indicators/statistics that their reported cases was out by at least an order of magnitude.
    I have felt since the China experience that this virus last 3-4 months in each Country. I realise that China employed extraordinary measures in Wuhan but the virus was in other areas and for it to just disappear must mean its shelf life in each country is limited.
    Fucking hell.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,592

    https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/coronavirus-new-cases-imported-travel-covid-19-12567298

    Interesting to see how many of Singapore's cases are coming from the UK - 34 new British-originated cases found there today. (FWIW Singaporeans in the UK are heavily concentrated in London.)

    Similar story from Hong Kong
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-23/hong-kong-expats-point-fingers-over-who-s-spreading-coronavirus
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 451

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:
    I do wonder whether the "everything the UK does is shit" crowd will stop posting these comparisons now that the UK is following a lower mortality path...
    Signs are optimistic but you're counting your chickens a bit here. There's quite a lot of variability in the numbers. Italy had- proportionately- a big leap from March 7th to 8th, a multiple of 1.57. That's much higher than they had in the previous few days, and much higher than they had since then, when the rate was closer to 1.3, dropping down to 1.2 or lower. It essentially meant they gained around 2 normal days worth of deaths in that one day. Since we didn't have an equivalent leap, it's quite expected that we'd go from +14 to +15 days as a result.

    Of course it may well be that over the next few days our numbers will continue to be better than their equivalent numbers after that one outlier, and so our line will continue to diverge from theirs. But let's not jump to conclusions yet.
    All true, but I don't understand the fetish for comparing our numbers to Italy. There's no reason to assume the same trends for deaths, even in the absence of different levels of lock down at different times (we've got different populations, some differences in social patterns, different measures applied at different times). Anyone who just wants to predict a high number in a couple of weeks can fit an exponential curve through our current figures (to be clear, I don't think that's useful either - we expect the measures taken to reduce infection and deaths, even if growing at an exponential rate growing at a slower exponential rate).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 3,500
    edited March 23
    Scott_xP said:
    inference: Boris does not want to be blamed if a lockdown turns out to be overkill.
  • algarkirk said:

    Foxy said:

    MaxPB said:

    isam said:
    I do wonder whether the "everything the UK does is shit" crowd will stop posting these comparisons now that the UK is following a lower mortality path...
    Signs are optimistic but you're counting your chickens a bit here. There's quite a lot of variability in the numbers. Italy had- proportionately- a big leap from March 7th to 8th, a multiple of 1.57. That's much higher than they had in the previous few days, and much higher than they had since then, when the rate was closer to 1.3, dropping down to 1.2 or lower. It essentially meant they gained around 2 normal days worth of deaths in that one day. Since we didn't have an equivalent leap, it's quite expected that we'd go from +14 to +15 days as a result.

    Of course it may well be that over the next few days our numbers will continue to be better than their equivalent numbers after that one outlier, and so our line will continue to diverge from theirs. But let's not jump to conclusions yet.
    Indeed, it might just be the weekend effect on lab capacity, but hopefully a real trend.
    These figures seem to be like daily opinion polls in the time before elections - every day is the same, you don't know what the figures portend until the next polls come out, and so on until election day or in this case we are all either cured or dead.

    Quite.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,496
    A plan to save “our precious bodily fluids” ?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,440

    Italy

    Currently positive: 50418 (+3780 net increase)
    including 3204 in ICU

    Deaths: 602
    Healed: 408

    Total new cases: 4789 (1555 of them in Lombardia)

    I will update my spreadsheet as soon as we get more data, but these are very encouraging numbers from Italy.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,759
    edited March 23
    DWP site 10 mins ago

    You will need to:

    designate affected employees as ‘furloughed workers,’ and notify your employees of this change - changing the status of employees remains subject to existing employment law and, depending on the employment contract, may be subject to negotiation
    submit information to HMRC about the employees that have been furloughed and their earnings through a new online portal (HMRC will set out further details on the information required)
    HMRC will reimburse 80% of furloughed workers wage costs, up to a cap of £2,500 per month. HMRC are working urgently to set up a system for reimbursement. Existing systems are not set up to facilitate payments to employers.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 750
    RobD said:

    Is it possible for an army officer to be head of the government? I thought Eisenhower had to resign prior to taking office, for example.
    He did, and it isn't. At least in normal circumstances.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,892
    RobD said:

    Is it possible for an army officer to be head of the government? I thought Eisenhower had to resign prior to taking office, for example.
    https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-inside-militarys-top-secret-plans-if-coronavirus-cripples-government-1492878
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,458

    geoffw said:

    Home cooking coming into fashion. Buy Delia.

    If you want to learn how to cook, Gordon Ramsay's your man on Youtube for the clearest demonstration of techniques. It might be due to his background as a youth footballer.
    Or sign up to Hello Fresh. Their packs are delivered each week, with all ingredients bar cooking oil. They seem to be being delivered normally still.

    Not particularly cheap, but allow Mrs Foxy and I to experiment with new recipes, and refresh our cooking repertoire.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,759

    COBR running late so press conference delayed. Going to guess tougher measures are going to have to go ahead, at least for London.

    7pm all channels PM addresses the Nation - I thought it said
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,892

    Scott_xP said:
    inference: Boris does not want to be blamed if a lockdown turns out to be overkill.
    How would we know it was overkill?

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,962
    Scott_xP said:
    Where does Priti fit on the "crucial to the smooth running of our country" scale?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,725
    IshmaelZ said:

    Deafbloke said:

    Can anyone explain what is happening in Iran? If the Imperial model is correct, surely deaths should be spiralling out of control to 500k or more?
    1. There is no lockdown (but some closures)
    2. Health service is limited with equipment shortages etc.
    3. Outbreak took off before Italy
    4. Ok, official numbers are suspect, but they would need to be wrong for deaths by orders of magnitude. Evidence for this would be appearing.

    There was a very good article, recently, using other indicators/statistics that their reported cases was out by at least an order of magnitude.
    I have felt since the China experience that this virus last 3-4 months in each Country. I realise that China employed extraordinary measures in Wuhan but the virus was in other areas and for it to just disappear must mean its shelf life in each country is limited.
    Fucking hell.
    Of course if that's right we can soon go back to normal service and have a chap spending hours talking platitudes about the meaning of an acquittal and another chap talking cliches about Brexit (whatever that is) being the end of the world/the beginning of great things and we can speculate on the name of Boris's baby.

  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 750

    Italy's figures are starting to look promising:

    On the face of it, certainly so, but its Monday and the figures are often distorted by the weekend. I'm sure the deaths figure is right, but the new cases could be wrong.

    I recall years ago when my wife was pregnant, she was told by the NCT that a majority of babies are born between 9am and 5pm, Monday to Friday.
    Despite all the issues, breaking into weekend working still seems almost taboo, and I bet both testing is down over the weekend, and the official coroner may have knocked off early on Sunday so there will be a lot of 8am Monday morning 'deaths' today.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 716
    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    281 (Sunday's total) + 54 = 335

    So 54 = 46 (Eng.) + 8 (other parts of UK)

    would be my interpretation of that.
    Its key to remember again that is deaths with Covid 19, not necessarily because of Covid 19
    I would be cautious. Until we get testing up to speed and enough reagents to test more patients, we may be significantly under measuring too.
    I will just post this graph again from the ONS

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    2014/15 Excess Winter deaths were 44000, thats between 400-500 extra deaths eaxh day. It didn't even make the news.
    Actually, it was in the news quite a bit! "Winter pressures" and "trolley waits" etc.

    If in the end the mortality is in 5 figures or less, that will be because of the measures that we take, not that there was no threat in the first place.

    Possibly, but we have destroyed the world economy for Covid 19 but did abolutely nothing for that outbreak of nasty flu in 2015.
    Did the news in February 2015 start each night with 500 people have died today of flu bringing the total this winter to 35,000?
    Were Imperial College predicting 510,000 deaths if steps were not taken to mitigate the flu in 2015?

    Seriously, are you unaware of that prediction, or do you think it wrong, or do you think it irrelevant? Whether you are a troll, or genuinely unable to take that point on board, can I politely suggest that your posts add very little value to the debate and would be better discontinued?
    Thank you for that.

    Why am I a troll?

    I have posted a ONS graph which showed the number of deaths from flu in 2015. The daily death toll was 500. Nothing changed in this country.

    All the news programmes tonight will lead on the fact the 54 people have died with not of coronavirus.

    Why is it not a valid point to discuss this fact?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,496
    FF43 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Where does Priti fit on the "crucial to the smooth running of our country" scale?
    Or the many people that we consider to be low skilled...?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,759

    Scott_xP said:
    inference: Boris does not want to be blamed if a lockdown turns out to be overkill.
    Nobody will blame Boris for overkill.

    Most people will blame Boris if he acts too slow and we overshoot Italy Spain et al

    IMO
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,346

    Scott_xP said:
    inference: Boris does not want to be blamed if a lockdown turns out to be overkill.
    Nobody will blame Boris for overkill.

    Most people will blame Boris if he acts too slow and we overshoot Italy Spain et al

    IMO
    I think I'm going to save this comment. ;):D
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,592
    DougSeal said:

    Does this verdict change much? People make their own minds up as to guilt or innocence and a verdict won’t change their minds. See OJ Simpson where the reaction to the verdict was split on racial lines. In this case I would imagine that reaction will be similarly polarised according to your own view of the individual.

    The presence of the "not proven" verdict option in Scotland ought to give more weight to a "not guilty" verdict. In other jurisdictions, "not proven" and "not guilty" get lumped together under "not guilty".
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,346

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    281 (Sunday's total) + 54 = 335

    So 54 = 46 (Eng.) + 8 (other parts of UK)

    would be my interpretation of that.
    Its key to remember again that is deaths with Covid 19, not necessarily because of Covid 19
    I would be cautious. Until we get testing up to speed and enough reagents to test more patients, we may be significantly under measuring too.
    I will just post this graph again from the ONS

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    2014/15 Excess Winter deaths were 44000, thats between 400-500 extra deaths eaxh day. It didn't even make the news.
    Actually, it was in the news quite a bit! "Winter pressures" and "trolley waits" etc.

    If in the end the mortality is in 5 figures or less, that will be because of the measures that we take, not that there was no threat in the first place.

    Possibly, but we have destroyed the world economy for Covid 19 but did abolutely nothing for that outbreak of nasty flu in 2015.
    Did the news in February 2015 start each night with 500 people have died today of flu bringing the total this winter to 35,000?
    Were Imperial College predicting 510,000 deaths if steps were not taken to mitigate the flu in 2015?

    Seriously, are you unaware of that prediction, or do you think it wrong, or do you think it irrelevant? Whether you are a troll, or genuinely unable to take that point on board, can I politely suggest that your posts add very little value to the debate and would be better discontinued?
    Thank you for that.

    Why am I a troll?

    I have posted a ONS graph which showed the number of deaths from flu in 2015. The daily death toll was 500. Nothing changed in this country.

    All the news programmes tonight will lead on the fact the 54 people have died with not of coronavirus.

    Why is it not a valid point to discuss this fact?
    One number is at the peak of the outbreak, the other is not.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,025
    Andrew said:

    The smarter of the brothers shares some of his wisdom:

    OMG! Jeremy's brother sounds barking mad there. And Jeremy so rooted and real.

    How can siblings be so utterly different?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,725

    RobD said:

    Is it possible for an army officer to be head of the government? I thought Eisenhower had to resign prior to taking office, for example.
    https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-inside-militarys-top-secret-plans-if-coronavirus-cripples-government-1492878
    History suggests that the leaders of the army decide if and when an army officer can head up a government and no constitution on earth can prevent it.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,783
    edited March 23

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    Cabinet rebellion threatened unless Italian-style measures agreed

    If the Telegraph is right about that then the government's actions are not driven by evidence or experts but by assorted girly swots panicking at news headlines (oh, and Boris is losing control after less than six months).

    ETA that is the political story, not Salmond.
    Source
    Telegraph. Third bullet point on the home page.

    ETA 8.06 am on the "live" page

    PM facing 'full-scale cabinet mutiny' if there is no lockdown
    Boris Johnson is facing a "full scale mutiny" from his cabinet and senior aides if he does not enforce a lockdown of London including restrictions on non-essential travel, according to reports.

    Cabinet ministers and aides want the Prime Minister to bring in French or Italian-style lockdown measures in the next 24 hours. Yesterday he warned "tougher measures" could be introduced if people do not take the Government's coronavirus advice seriously.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-latest-lockdown-panic-buying-news-cases-nhs/
    Telegraph and other newspaper reports hold no weight as long as Boris is in harmony with Cobra, the three First Ministers and Khan

    As Varadkar said today decisions are not made with reference to twitter or journalists but to the advice of his medical and science advisors

    And that is where I stand
    Boris is pretty neutral in this, he's probably not doing any harm but he isn't adding anything either.

    My wife, who pays little attention to the politics of it all , commented last night how much better the Nicola Sturgeon press conference was to Johnson's. Shes was clear, concise and unambiguous, Johnson waffles he can't help himself, he always has.

    Not that it means great deal but, unusually, the Times had a very critical lead hat said that. I'm not actually in favour of rocking the boat at times like these but please lets not pretend Johnson's handling of this is beyond reproach because it isn't.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 436

    Italy's figures are starting to look promising:

    On the face of it, certainly so, but its Monday and the figures are often distorted by the weekend. I'm sure the deaths figure is right, but the new cases could be wrong.

    I recall years ago when my wife was pregnant, she was told by the NCT that a majority of babies are born between 9am and 5pm, Monday to Friday.
    Despite all the issues, breaking into weekend working still seems almost taboo, and I bet both testing is down over the weekend, and the official coroner may have knocked off early on Sunday so there will be a lot of 8am Monday morning 'deaths' today.
    No data from today, but the last couple of days the number of tests in Italy has been increasing, not decreasing.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 28,921

    malcolmg said:

    Haven't really been following the case. Why would the ramifications be huge?

    The allegations were mainly by senior SNP people or ones that had left and joined civil service allegedly, going by reporting of trial.
    Kenny Macaskill (former SNP cabinet secretary at Holyrood and now MP) has been tweeting that "heads must roll". Wonder whose heads he's referring to.

    Believe me, this will run and run.

    And it's nowt to do with Yoons versus Nats.
    For sure it will be a civil war for certain.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,230

    DougSeal said:

    Does this verdict change much? People make their own minds up as to guilt or innocence and a verdict won’t change their minds. See OJ Simpson where the reaction to the verdict was split on racial lines. In this case I would imagine that reaction will be similarly polarised according to your own view of the individual.

    The presence of the "not proven" verdict option in Scotland ought to give more weight to a "not guilty" verdict. In other jurisdictions, "not proven" and "not guilty" get lumped together under "not guilty".
    I think it's unhelpful. All it does in this case is suggest that the jury thought there might have been something to the most serious allegation.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,496
    kinabalu said:

    Andrew said:

    The smarter of the brothers shares some of his wisdom:

    OMG! Jeremy's brother sounds barking mad there...

    As opposed to Islington mad ?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,962
    Floater said:

    I think you might be missing the point

    Ask yourself why China, a country not known to overly care about its people acted in a way that severely impacted its economy.

    Interesting question. I think the Chinese government would likely be toast if it had allowed the rest of the country become like Hubei. As it is, Hubei is a tinderbox from what I've heard. The government has kept a lid on dissent there because of the need to quarantine. Their moment of maximum danger is now as they ease restrictions.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,759
    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    inference: Boris does not want to be blamed if a lockdown turns out to be overkill.
    Nobody will blame Boris for overkill.

    Most people will blame Boris if he acts too slow and we overshoot Italy Spain et al

    IMO
    I think I'm going to save this comment. ;):D
    Why?
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 2,651
    edited March 23

    RobD said:

    Is it possible for an army officer to be head of the government? I thought Eisenhower had to resign prior to taking office, for example.
    He did, and it isn't. At least in normal circumstances.
    Yes, this would be extra-legal and extra-constitutional, but for all that I distrust the orange Trumpolini, I don't think it's unreasonable to say "if all the civilians in the order of succession are dead or incapacitated, then take your orders from this officer or his designated successor." But if things got that bad, I doubt there'd be much of a functional US military or government left to take orders.

    It's all quite reminiscent of John Barnes' "Daybreak" series, which is based on W Bush's real-life "Directive 51" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_and_Homeland_Security_Presidential_Directive)
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 451

    Italy's figures are starting to look promising:

    On the face of it, certainly so, but its Monday and the figures are often distorted by the weekend. I'm sure the deaths figure is right, but the new cases could be wrong.

    I recall years ago when my wife was pregnant, she was told by the NCT that a majority of babies are born between 9am and 5pm, Monday to Friday.
    Despite all the issues, breaking into weekend working still seems almost taboo, and I bet both testing is down over the weekend, and the official coroner may have knocked off early on Sunday so there will be a lot of 8am Monday morning 'deaths' today.
    You'd also expect the peak in deaths to lag the peak in new cases by several days at least - unless the deaths that happen are happening very soon after diagnosis (or a large proportion before diagnosis - i.e. positive tests after death).
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 1,725
    tlg86 said:

    DougSeal said:

    Does this verdict change much? People make their own minds up as to guilt or innocence and a verdict won’t change their minds. See OJ Simpson where the reaction to the verdict was split on racial lines. In this case I would imagine that reaction will be similarly polarised according to your own view of the individual.

    The presence of the "not proven" verdict option in Scotland ought to give more weight to a "not guilty" verdict. In other jurisdictions, "not proven" and "not guilty" get lumped together under "not guilty".
    I think it's unhelpful. All it does in this case is suggest that the jury thought there might have been something to the most serious allegation.
    I interpret it as a jury saying you shouldn't go to prison, which we think you will if we convict, that you are a fat slob and a menace and your counsel thinks so too, that your behaviour deserved a massive and multiple slap and should have got it from these bright women, and perhaps public life could carry on nicely without you. Lucky.

  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 716
    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    281 (Sunday's total) + 54 = 335

    So 54 = 46 (Eng.) + 8 (other parts of UK)

    would be my interpretation of that.
    Its key to remember again that is deaths with Covid 19, not necessarily because of Covid 19
    I would be cautious. Until we get testing up to speed and enough reagents to test more patients, we may be significantly under measuring too.
    I will just post this graph again from the ONS

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    2014/15 Excess Winter deaths were 44000, thats between 400-500 extra deaths eaxh day. It didn't even make the news.
    Actually, it was in the news quite a bit! "Winter pressures" and "trolley waits" etc.

    If in the end the mortality is in 5 figures or less, that will be because of the measures that we take, not that there was no threat in the first place.

    Possibly, but we have destroyed the world economy for Covid 19 but did abolutely nothing for that outbreak of nasty flu in 2015.
    Did the news in February 2015 start each night with 500 people have died today of flu bringing the total this winter to 35,000?
    Were Imperial College predicting 510,000 deaths if steps were not taken to mitigate the flu in 2015?

    Seriously, are you unaware of that prediction, or do you think it wrong, or do you think it irrelevant? Whether you are a troll, or genuinely unable to take that point on board, can I politely suggest that your posts add very little value to the debate and would be better discontinued?
    Thank you for that.

    Why am I a troll?

    I have posted a ONS graph which showed the number of deaths from flu in 2015. The daily death toll was 500. Nothing changed in this country.

    All the news programmes tonight will lead on the fact the 54 people have died with not of coronavirus.

    Why is it not a valid point to discuss this fact?
    One number is at the peak of the outbreak, the other is not.
    There is absolutely no chance of Covid-19 deaths in the UK getting anywhere near 50,000. I won't post for a month as a divergent opinion is not welcome amongst the field of virology experts on here.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,025
    Nigelb said:

    As opposed to Islington mad ?

    There are some oddballs there, I grant you. In fact the most eccentric bloke I know or have ever known lives in Islington. No, not HIM.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 3,783

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    281 (Sunday's total) + 54 = 335

    So 54 = 46 (Eng.) + 8 (other parts of UK)

    would be my interpretation of that.
    Its key to remember again that is deaths with Covid 19, not necessarily because of Covid 19
    I would be cautious. Until we get testing up to speed and enough reagents to test more patients, we may be significantly under measuring too.
    I will just post this graph again from the ONS

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    2014/15 Excess Winter deaths due to flu were 44000, thats between 400-500 extra deaths each day. It didn't even make the news.

    What is your point? Are you implying then that the current Cover-19 outbreak really shouldn't have made the news and the entire world is making a big old fuss about nothing?

    Have you really not grasped that there are other issues involved here than just the body count?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,346

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    281 (Sunday's total) + 54 = 335

    So 54 = 46 (Eng.) + 8 (other parts of UK)

    would be my interpretation of that.
    Its key to remember again that is deaths with Covid 19, not necessarily because of Covid 19
    I would be cautious. Until we get testing up to speed and enough reagents to test more patients, we may be significantly under measuring too.
    I will just post this graph again from the ONS

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    2014/15 Excess Winter deaths were 44000, thats between 400-500 extra deaths eaxh day. It didn't even make the news.
    Actually, it was in the news quite a bit! "Winter pressures" and "trolley waits" etc.

    If in the end the mortality is in 5 figures or less, that will be because of the measures that we take, not that there was no threat in the first place.

    Possibly, but we have destroyed the world economy for Covid 19 but did abolutely nothing for that outbreak of nasty flu in 2015.
    Did the news in February 2015 start each night with 500 people have died today of flu bringing the total this winter to 35,000?
    Were Imperial College predicting 510,000 deaths if steps were not taken to mitigate the flu in 2015?

    Seriously, are you unaware of that prediction, or do you think it wrong, or do you think it irrelevant? Whether you are a troll, or genuinely unable to take that point on board, can I politely suggest that your posts add very little value to the debate and would be better discontinued?
    Thank you for that.

    Why am I a troll?

    I have posted a ONS graph which showed the number of deaths from flu in 2015. The daily death toll was 500. Nothing changed in this country.

    All the news programmes tonight will lead on the fact the 54 people have died with not of coronavirus.

    Why is it not a valid point to discuss this fact?
    One number is at the peak of the outbreak, the other is not.
    There is absolutely no chance of Covid-19 deaths in the UK getting anywhere near 50,000. I won't post for a month as a divergent opinion is not welcome amongst the field of virology experts on here.
    Absolutely no chance?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,553

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    281 (Sunday's total) + 54 = 335

    So 54 = 46 (Eng.) + 8 (other parts of UK)

    would be my interpretation of that.
    Its key to remember again that is deaths with Covid 19, not necessarily because of Covid 19
    I would be cautious. Until we get testing up to speed and enough reagents to test more patients, we may be significantly under measuring too.
    I will just post this graph again from the ONS

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    2014/15 Excess Winter deaths were 44000, thats between 400-500 extra deaths eaxh day. It didn't even make the news.
    Actually, it was in the news quite a bit! "Winter pressures" and "trolley waits" etc.

    If in the end the mortality is in 5 figures or less, that will be because of the measures that we take, not that there was no threat in the first place.

    Possibly, but we have destroyed the world economy for Covid 19 but did abolutely nothing for that outbreak of nasty flu in 2015.
    Did the news in February 2015 start each night with 500 people have died today of flu bringing the total this winter to 35,000?
    Were Imperial College predicting 510,000 deaths if steps were not taken to mitigate the flu in 2015?

    Seriously, are you unaware of that prediction, or do you think it wrong, or do you think it irrelevant? Whether you are a troll, or genuinely unable to take that point on board, can I politely suggest that your posts add very little value to the debate and would be better discontinued?
    Thank you for that.

    Why am I a troll?

    I have posted a ONS graph which showed the number of deaths from flu in 2015. The daily death toll was 500. Nothing changed in this country.

    All the news programmes tonight will lead on the fact the 54 people have died with not of coronavirus.

    Why is it not a valid point to discuss this fact?
    One number is at the peak of the outbreak, the other is not.
    There is absolutely no chance of Covid-19 deaths in the UK getting anywhere near 50,000. I won't post for a month as a divergent opinion is not welcome amongst the field of virology experts on here.
    Imperial College prediction, without intervention, 510,000, and you seem unable to understand that. Your decision is wise.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,346

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    inference: Boris does not want to be blamed if a lockdown turns out to be overkill.
    Nobody will blame Boris for overkill.

    Most people will blame Boris if he acts too slow and we overshoot Italy Spain et al

    IMO
    I think I'm going to save this comment. ;):D
    Why?
    People will blame Boris regardless of what he says or does.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,050

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    281 (Sunday's total) + 54 = 335

    So 54 = 46 (Eng.) + 8 (other parts of UK)

    would be my interpretation of that.
    Its key to remember again that is deaths with Covid 19, not necessarily because of Covid 19
    I would be cautious. Until we get testing up to speed and enough reagents to test more patients, we may be significantly under measuring too.
    I will just post this graph again from the ONS

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    2014/15 Excess Winter deaths were 44000, thats between 400-500 extra deaths eaxh day. It didn't even make the news.
    Actually, it was in the news quite a bit! "Winter pressures" and "trolley waits" etc.

    If in the end the mortality is in 5 figures or less, that will be because of the measures that we take, not that there was no threat in the first place.

    Possibly, but we have destroyed the world economy for Covid 19 but did abolutely nothing for that outbreak of nasty flu in 2015.
    Did the news in February 2015 start each night with 500 people have died today of flu bringing the total this winter to 35,000?
    Were Imperial College predicting 510,000 deaths if steps were not taken to mitigate the flu in 2015?

    Seriously, are you unaware of that prediction, or do you think it wrong, or do you think it irrelevant? Whether you are a troll, or genuinely unable to take that point on board, can I politely suggest that your posts add very little value to the debate and would be better discontinued?
    Thank you for that.

    Why am I a troll?

    I have posted a ONS graph which showed the number of deaths from flu in 2015. The daily death toll was 500. Nothing changed in this country.

    All the news programmes tonight will lead on the fact the 54 people have died with not of coronavirus.

    Why is it not a valid point to discuss this fact?
    One number is at the peak of the outbreak, the other is not.
    There is absolutely no chance of Covid-19 deaths in the UK getting anywhere near 50,000. I won't post for a month as a divergent opinion is not welcome amongst the field of virology experts on here.
    Aw, only a month?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,458
    Selebian said:

    Italy's figures are starting to look promising:

    On the face of it, certainly so, but its Monday and the figures are often distorted by the weekend. I'm sure the deaths figure is right, but the new cases could be wrong.

    I recall years ago when my wife was pregnant, she was told by the NCT that a majority of babies are born between 9am and 5pm, Monday to Friday.
    Despite all the issues, breaking into weekend working still seems almost taboo, and I bet both testing is down over the weekend, and the official coroner may have knocked off early on Sunday so there will be a lot of 8am Monday morning 'deaths' today.
    You'd also expect the peak in deaths to lag the peak in new cases by several days at least - unless the deaths that happen are happening very soon after diagnosis (or a large proportion before diagnosis - i.e. positive tests after death).
    I had an interesting chat with one of my Italian colleagues earlier. A 28 year old friend in Bergamo has been sick at home with viral pneumonia, but neither admitted nor tested for COVID19. Deaths soon after admission are a sign of a pretty stressed healthcare system.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,759
    Jeremy Hunt in Parliament basically saying our testing progress isnt progressing, "Less tests this week than last week. Care Homes refusing to take discharges from hospitals as patients not tested."

    Describing "Testing ambition as admirable but testing performance woeful"
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,951
    In private, much of the Scottish political and media class already had him hanged, drawn and quartered and so this verdict is being met with a mixture of shock, horror and contempt. But the law is the law and the law says he didn’t do it. The consequences of this are far-reaching. Salmond is not a man who parts with grudges readily. The reckoning that is about to hit will make the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs look like a pebble dropped in a puddle.....

    Whatever his opponents inside and outside the SNP may think of him, he has a compelling story to tell. He has cleared his name of serious charges. His assertion that he was a victim of a political conspiracy now appears to carry the imprimatur of a High Court jury. Alex Salmond is back from the dead and he will have his revenge.


    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/get-ready-for-the-salmond-reckoning
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,025
    Olympics off, I hear.

    Gutted.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 436
    Foxy said:

    Selebian said:

    Italy's figures are starting to look promising:

    On the face of it, certainly so, but its Monday and the figures are often distorted by the weekend. I'm sure the deaths figure is right, but the new cases could be wrong.

    I recall years ago when my wife was pregnant, she was told by the NCT that a majority of babies are born between 9am and 5pm, Monday to Friday.
    Despite all the issues, breaking into weekend working still seems almost taboo, and I bet both testing is down over the weekend, and the official coroner may have knocked off early on Sunday so there will be a lot of 8am Monday morning 'deaths' today.
    You'd also expect the peak in deaths to lag the peak in new cases by several days at least - unless the deaths that happen are happening very soon after diagnosis (or a large proportion before diagnosis - i.e. positive tests after death).
    I had an interesting chat with one of my Italian colleagues earlier. A 28 year old friend in Bergamo has been sick at home with viral pneumonia, but neither admitted nor tested for COVID19. Deaths soon after admission are a sign of a pretty stressed healthcare system.
    Oh dear - that's really awful. It's the local overwhelming of the system that seems really bad. I do hope that London can avoid this but have some nervousness.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,759
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Scott_xP said:
    inference: Boris does not want to be blamed if a lockdown turns out to be overkill.
    Nobody will blame Boris for overkill.

    Most people will blame Boris if he acts too slow and we overshoot Italy Spain et al

    IMO
    I think I'm going to save this comment. ;):D
    Why?
    People will blame Boris regardless of what he says or does.
    Well they shouldnt.

    I wont blame him for short term tough as shit measures

    I will if the reluctance to act results in highest deaths in Europe
  • 'less tests this week than last week' is not even remotely true

    16 - 22/3 - total tests: 38026
    9 - 15/3 - total tests: 16766
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 10,962
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Gordon Jackson is a phenomenal criminal lawyer but this must be close to his greatest triumph. His jury speech seems to have swung it. Something just didn't smell right he said. Not going to waste my breath saying he is a nice man. But he is facing serious criminal charges in the High Court.

    Or to paraphrase the late great Johnnie -

    The man's a shit. But you must acquit.
    The reputational problem for Salmond is that he has been acquitted but he's still a shit. Or at least his behaviour was.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 2,590

    RobD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Floater said:

    Boris Johnson will address the nation this evening and announce a new, stricter lockdown policy for the UK, the Telegraph understands.

    Mr Johnson will chair a meeting of the Government's emergency Cobra committee at 5pm today, then update the country on the latest social distancing measures Downing Street will impose.

    The address, which is expected at around 7pm this evening, will likely include the closure of all shops except supermarkets, food stores and pharmacies.

    The new measures come as the NHS announced 46 more people have died from Covid-19 in England in the last 24 hours, bringing the total number of UK deaths to 335

    281 (Sunday's total) + 54 = 335

    So 54 = 46 (Eng.) + 8 (other parts of UK)

    would be my interpretation of that.
    Its key to remember again that is deaths with Covid 19, not necessarily because of Covid 19
    I would be cautious. Until we get testing up to speed and enough reagents to test more patients, we may be significantly under measuring too.
    I will just post this graph again from the ONS

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/highestnumberofexcesswinterdeathssince19992000/2015-11-25

    2014/15 Excess Winter deaths were 44000, thats between 400-500 extra deaths eaxh day. It didn't even make the news.
    Actually, it was in the news quite a bit! "Winter pressures" and "trolley waits" etc.

    If in the end the mortality is in 5 figures or less, that will be because of the measures that we take, not that there was no threat in the first place.

    Possibly, but we have destroyed the world economy for Covid 19 but did abolutely nothing for that outbreak of nasty flu in 2015.
    Did the news in February 2015 start each night with 500 people have died today of flu bringing the total this winter to 35,000?
    Were Imperial College predicting 510,000 deaths if steps were not taken to mitigate the flu in 2015?

    Seriously, are you unaware of that prediction, or do you think it wrong, or do you think it irrelevant? Whether you are a troll, or genuinely unable to take that point on board, can I politely suggest that your posts add very little value to the debate and would be better discontinued?
    Thank you for that.

    Why am I a troll?

    I have posted a ONS graph which showed the number of deaths from flu in 2015. The daily death toll was 500. Nothing changed in this country.

    All the news programmes tonight will lead on the fact the 54 people have died with not of coronavirus.

    Why is it not a valid point to discuss this fact?
    One number is at the peak of the outbreak, the other is not.
    There is absolutely no chance of Covid-19 deaths in the UK getting anywhere near 50,000. I won't post for a month as a divergent opinion is not welcome amongst the field of virology experts on here.
    I think you're probably wrong, and "absolutely no chance" is one hell of a call even if you're not, but please consider this one vote for divergent opinions anyway.
  • isamisam Posts: 32,847
    edited March 23
    MaxPB said:

    isam said:
    I do wonder whether the "everything the UK does is shit" crowd will stop posting these comparisons now that the UK is following a lower mortality path...
    Wonder no more. They’re not being partisan, of course, now isn’t the time... but they will stop posting the comparisons if we do better, yes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,956
    edited March 23

    Jeremy Hunt in Parliament basically saying our testing progress isnt progressing, "Less tests this week than last week. Care Homes refusing to take discharges from hospitals as patients not tested."

    Describing "Testing ambition as admirable but testing performance woeful"

    Very disappointing from Hunt that he is talking absolute cobblers on the fact of testing numbers. Yesterday was 11,000 alone.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,346
    And the deltas for those that are too lazy to work it out and enjoy having other people do everything for them? :smiley:
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 2,303
    IshmaelZ said:
    I am not sure how much we can rely on the figures in India, only because you have a very densely populated country with wildly disparate standards of healthcare provision from exceptionally basic to world leading.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 2,590

    'less tests this week than last week' is not even remotely true

    16 - 22/3 - total tests: 38026
    9 - 15/3 - total tests: 16766

    Worse, he should have said "fewer".
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,956
    edited March 23
    1000 new cases over last 24hrs on ~6000 tests....Time for Boris to pull that big emergency break lever.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 10,651
    RobD said:

    And the deltas for those that are too lazy to work it out and enjoy having other people do everything for them? :smiley:
    967 new cases and 54 new deaths - both numbers stable in terms of a second-order change.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,592

    DWP site 10 mins ago

    You will need to:

    designate affected employees as ‘furloughed workers,’ and notify your employees of this change - changing the status of employees remains subject to existing employment law and, depending on the employment contract, may be subject to negotiation
    submit information to HMRC about the employees that have been furloughed and their earnings through a new online portal (HMRC will set out further details on the information required)
    HMRC will reimburse 80% of furloughed workers wage costs, up to a cap of £2,500 per month. HMRC are working urgently to set up a system for reimbursement. Existing systems are not set up to facilitate payments to employers.

    Is there a betting market for "word of the year 2020"? I am plumping for "furlough".
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 3,004
    IshmaelZ said:
    The problem with a shutdown in india is that if one person self isolates there will be 10 others who come along to watch!

    More seriously, when I was in India there were many people who worked and lived on the streets, and there were plenty of slums, which thankfully i did not get to see close up. I cannot see that isolation is at all possible for the poorest 20% there.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 2,553

    IshmaelZ said:
    I am not sure how much we can rely on the figures in India, only because you have a very densely populated country with wildly disparate standards of healthcare provision from exceptionally basic to world leading.
    ...is why I said recorded. I have no doubt the number is wrong.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 33,948
    European Finals postponed. No re arranged dates
  • FCO advising all British tourists to return home immediately. Lockdown/full border closure imminent, by the looks of it.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052

    European Finals postponed. No re arranged dates

    These competitions will never be completed.
  • kinabalu said:

    Olympics off, I hear.

    Gutted.

    Dick Pound has just confirmed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 33,948
    Looks as if they anticipate a worldwide grounding of flights
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,346

    FCO advising all British tourists to return home immediately. Lockdown/full border closure imminent, by the looks of it.

    I'm just hoping I can come home for Christmas. :D
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 19,687

    DWP site 10 mins ago

    You will need to:

    designate affected employees as ‘furloughed workers,’ and notify your employees of this change - changing the status of employees remains subject to existing employment law and, depending on the employment contract, may be subject to negotiation
    submit information to HMRC about the employees that have been furloughed and their earnings through a new online portal (HMRC will set out further details on the information required)
    HMRC will reimburse 80% of furloughed workers wage costs, up to a cap of £2,500 per month. HMRC are working urgently to set up a system for reimbursement. Existing systems are not set up to facilitate payments to employers.

    Is there a betting market for "word of the year 2020"? I am plumping for "furlough".
    I'm going for epidemiologist. Of the armchair variety.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 12,025
    edited March 23

    There is absolutely no chance of Covid-19 deaths in the UK getting anywhere near 50,000. I won't post for a month as a divergent opinion is not welcome amongst the field of virology experts on here.

    The focus on death toll misses the USP of this virus. Which is that it spreads like a forest fire AND puts a double digit % of those who get it into hospital - thus knocking over health systems. In this sense - that of creating maximum disruption - it is damn nigh perfect. If the Big Controller wanted to design a bug to torment its playthings this is what it would come up with. It's not too hot, not too cold. It's right in the kisser. Just contagious enough but not too much. Just deadly enough but not too much. If you ignore it, there's a health catastrophe. And to avoid that you have to wreck your economy and impoverish yourselves. It's a thing of beauty.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,346

    Looks as if they anticipate a worldwide grounding of flights
    That's mostly happened already.
This discussion has been closed.