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  • ChrisChris Posts: 6,473



    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Remember when the official advice was; masks don’t work ?

    They lied

    The big lie that undermines credibility so badly.

    Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?

    In the UK, I don't think so now.
    I do. It will still save lives.

    Also, if the Americans really enforce this and we see Americans wearing masks daily, then Britons will really notice. Unlike when Japanese wear masks
    Where are you going to get 50 million masks ?
    If they're disposable masks, wouldn't it have to be more like a billion?
  • ABZABZ Posts: 431
    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    ABZ said:

    Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

    This is the inherent danger of starting lockdowns too soon. People will become stir crazy the longer it goes on although fear will ironically probable make most see sense. I would not expect any major lifting of restrictions before mid-May at best. We certainly aren't here in Spain.
    Remember, when you start to remove restrictions, it is about keeping R0 around or below 1, not about trying to drive it down to 0.

    Think of it like this:

    No restrictions - R0=3

    Complete lockdown - R0=0.2

    The complete lockdown brings daily cases down to sub 100 over the course of six weeks. (In reality, it will do better than that, because we're always two weeks behind the true new infections number.)

    What restrictions are needed to keep R0 from spiking to 3?

    Well, I'd keep sporting events behind closed doors. I'd keep bars and restaurants closed for now, and require people in workplaces or on public transport to wear masks. I'd implement rigorous testing, tracking and tracing.

    If you do those, then you probably keep R0 below 1, and it bubbles along at a low level. And much of the economy can get back to work.
    I'd also suggest a severe curtailment of international travel (or at least a period of isolation upon returning) and some degree of staggered working arrangement (e.g., 3 days working at home for 2 days in the office) to keep the rate at a manageable level. For those who can, they should be encouraged to work at home more.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,561
    egg said:

    felix said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.
    For the record, you saying our government has done well? No incompetence, no errors?
    1. I live in Spain - everything is relative
    2. Every country has and is making mistakes.
    3. We follow the Science - it's the only sensible option.
    4. This is not yet finished - no-one wants Egg on their face at the end.
    5. The focus now should be saving lives not playing politics.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749



    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Remember when the official advice was; masks don’t work ?

    They lied

    The big lie that undermines credibility so badly.

    Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?

    In the UK, I don't think so now.
    I do. It will still save lives.

    Also, if the Americans really enforce this and we see Americans wearing masks daily, then Britons will really notice. Unlike when Japanese wear masks
    Where are you going to get 50 million masks ?
    Eadric's attic.
    Knickers. Thongs.
    Does it have to be a particular type of mask or does science say a scarf is just as good?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,384

    eadric said:

    Looks like Wuhan had over 40,000 dead. In a city of 11m.



    That’s 0.36% of the population.
    By covering things up China is responsible for everything the rest of the world will suffer.
    Not everything. We are all responsible for our own actions - but only within the parameters of the information we have on which to make those decisions. China could - and should - have done a lot more.
    Which leads to the question what would the world have done different if China had been reporting a death rate 20x as large.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736

    HYUFD said:
    The UK isn't doing too badly then
    Or too well if you do a graph of deaths per 1 million population particularly considering we and the US are behind on the timeline
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,561

    felix said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.
    No I dont.

    20,000 deaths is not a good outcome that's all.
    You lie - Which government minister has said that?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022
    HYUFD said:
    This is one of the biggest dangers of the current situation: people turning against each other.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 22,300

    eadric said:

    Looks like Wuhan had over 40,000 dead. In a city of 11m.



    That’s 0.36% of the population.
    By covering things up China is responsible for everything the rest of the world will suffer.
    Not everything. We are all responsible for our own actions - but only within the parameters of the information we have on which to make those decisions. China could - and should - have done a lot more.
    Radio Free Asia is not exactly the World Service.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_Free_Asia
    I would take that story with almost as large a pinch of salt as the official Chinese numbers.

    And yes, of course we are responsible for our own actions. Taiwan, for example, which is not exactly a friend of China..., was able to get sufficient warning from what was reported to activate their pandemic response most effectively.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 1,560
    ABZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    HYUFD said:
    The UK isn't doing too badly then
    Though the comparison is seriously flawed because of the variance in testing.
    Yes. The fraction of positive tests per million would be much more meaningful as a statistic, but even that is biased depending upon when the tests were performed (e.g., lots of tests 3 weeks ago would give a negative result and bias the outcome).
    And dependent not just on when you are testing, but on who you are testing.
    Testing could be/have been prioritised on
    1) Family/Contacts of confirmed cases; or
    2) Health service workers; or
    3) People with symptoms admitted to hospital.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,384
    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    ABZ said:

    Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

    This is the inherent danger of starting lockdowns too soon. People will become stir crazy the longer it goes on although fear will ironically probable make most see sense. I would not expect any major lifting of restrictions before mid-May at best. We certainly aren't here in Spain.
    Remember, when you start to remove restrictions, it is about keeping R0 around or below 1, not about trying to drive it down to 0.

    Think of it like this:

    No restrictions - R0=3

    Complete lockdown - R0=0.2

    The complete lockdown brings daily cases down to sub 100 over the course of six weeks. (In reality, it will do better than that, because we're always two weeks behind the true new infections number.)

    What restrictions are needed to keep R0 from spiking to 3?

    Well, I'd keep sporting events behind closed doors. I'd keep bars and restaurants closed for now, and require people in workplaces or on public transport to wear masks. I'd implement rigorous testing, tracking and tracing.

    If you do those, then you probably keep R0 below 1, and it bubbles along at a low level. And much of the economy can get back to work.
    One thing which needs to be enforced is maximum living to a house.

    2x people per large bedroom, 1x person per small bedroom and no conversion of living rooms into bedrooms.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Remember when the official advice was; masks don’t work ?

    They lied

    The big lie that undermines credibility so badly.

    Is the benefit of the u-turn worth the wider destruction of trust?

    In the UK, I don't think so now.
    I do. It will still save lives.

    Also, if the Americans really enforce this and we see Americans wearing masks daily, then Britons will really notice. Unlike when Japanese wear masks
    Assuming that you are correct, what kind of masks? Will any old mask do, or does it need to be properly face-fitting? What kind of filtration properties should the mask have? Should it be disposable or reusable, and if the latter then how frequently and thoroughly need it be cleaned? And where is the entire population of the UK going to get an adequate supply of the required masks when we're presently having real trouble getting enough PPE to NHS workers?
    Very good questions. All answered by Mask4Life, subsidiary of Trump Holdings who are supplier of the correct type of mask to Brexit UK.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 982

    Nigelb said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    That was the NHS England medical director.
    You're quoting those pesky fact things again...
    I presume you think the fact that Germany has a far lower death rate is not a fact or just a pesky fact?
    500000 per week estimated capacity. Another estimate 360000.
    God knows how many are actually being done. In itself an indication of the lack of national coordination in Germany.
    I guess deaths will end up similar to UK,.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736
    felix said:

    felix said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.
    No I dont.

    20,000 deaths is not a good outcome that's all.
    You lie - Which government minister has said that?
    The Government minister was the NHSE MO apparently. I would sack him tonight if I had my way 20,000 deaths and we will have done very well.

    No we wont.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,382
    Italy

    Active cases: 70,065 (+3,651 net increase)
    Deaths: 10,023 (+889)
    Healed: 12,384 (+1,434)

    New cases: 5,974

    Total tests: 429,526 (+35,447)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022

    Nigelb said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    That was the NHS England medical director.
    You're quoting those pesky fact things again...
    I presume you think the fact that Germany has a far lower death rate is not a fact or just a pesky fact?
    I think it's very likely that Germany are not classifying deaths in the same way that other countries are.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,561

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.
    No I dont.

    20,000 deaths is not a good outcome that's all.
    You lie - Which government minister has said that?
    The Government minister was the NHSE MO apparently. I would sack him tonight if I had my way 20,000 deaths and we will have done very well.

    No we wont.
    He is NOT a government minister. He is the NHS Medical Director and not a politician. FAKE NEWS.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,127

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.
    No I dont.

    20,000 deaths is not a good outcome that's all.
    You lie - Which government minister has said that?
    The Government minister was the NHSE MO apparently. I would sack him tonight if I had my way 20,000 deaths and we will have done very well.

    No we wont.
    Seriously? He's basically saying that given the circumstances 20,000 deaths will be a good outcome. No point sugarcoating things.
  • SLAMSLAM Posts: 4
    It is premature to suggest Germany is performing well in the fight against the Covid 19. If by testing they have identified a higher proportion of those having the Virus they will inevitably have a lower death rate.

    We know that Germany does not normally test deaths retrospectively unlike most European countries so Covid 19 deaths may be diagnosed incorrectly.

    Countries backing "Group Immunity" rather than tighter controls e.g. Swedan & Holland may suffer more deaths short-term but less in the longer term.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,959
    algarkirk said:

    tyson said:

    It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....

    There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).

    This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.
    About 1.5 million most vulnerable people have been asked to "lock down" for 12 weeks. That is about 3 year's worth of annual deaths.
    UK deaths are getting mixed with England deaths.
    England deaths about 540,000 pa, or 1480 a day
    UK deaths about 610,000 pa, or about 1671 a day.


    Yesterday there were 260 Covid deaths. 260 on top of that 1671 is an extra 15.5% Even if one thinks that those people would have died yesterday anyway 1/7 of daily deaths is certainly something to take seriously.

    And the daily number of Covid deaths is probably going to be significantly higher than 260 by the middle of next week.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 1,741
    Well, we have entered our 14 day self-isolation. My partner's teenage daughter is feeling poorly with symptoms very similar to regular flu after she travelled back from seeing her boyfriend in London a week ago, and we know that members of his family are currently ill with something that looks like Covid 19. It may not be, but I guess we still have to do the drill.

    The rest of us are well, but it's a strange feeling, waiting to start feeling ill. I keep imagining some tightness of the chest, but then it goes again - probably just worry! My partner and I are in our early 50s and in good health, so hopefully we'll come through it OK if it is Covid 19. My teenage son should be fine.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 431
    Curious numbers from Italy. A constant number of cases (and deaths - nearly 1000 today) but actually quite a decent drop in new cases in Lombardy and a (slightly smaller) drop in Veneto (both good news). Need to see if the rest of the country follows this.

    Certainly, the Lombardy governor has been suggesting the last 24-48h that they are just at the point where cases start to descend. If this is the case, that is about 2.5-3 weeks after the lockdown, so very consistent with what the government here have stated. Will also be curious to see what is happening at the regional level in Spain - @Felix or @nichomar have you seen any useful plots of this?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736
    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    That was the NHS England medical director.
    You're quoting those pesky fact things again...
    I presume you think the fact that Germany has a far lower death rate is not a fact or just a pesky fact?
    500000 per week estimated capacity. Another estimate 360000.
    God knows how many are actually being done. In itself an indication of the lack of national coordination in Germany.
    I guess deaths will end up similar to UK,.
    Would you like a £20 charity bet on that

    I say Germany death rate per million will be lower than ours. I hope I lose BTW
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 3,448

    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    ABZ said:

    Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

    This is the inherent danger of starting lockdowns too soon. People will become stir crazy the longer it goes on although fear will ironically probable make most see sense. I would not expect any major lifting of restrictions before mid-May at best. We certainly aren't here in Spain.
    Remember, when you start to remove restrictions, it is about keeping R0 around or below 1, not about trying to drive it down to 0.

    Think of it like this:

    No restrictions - R0=3

    Complete lockdown - R0=0.2

    The complete lockdown brings daily cases down to sub 100 over the course of six weeks. (In reality, it will do better than that, because we're always two weeks behind the true new infections number.)

    What restrictions are needed to keep R0 from spiking to 3?

    Well, I'd keep sporting events behind closed doors. I'd keep bars and restaurants closed for now, and require people in workplaces or on public transport to wear masks. I'd implement rigorous testing, tracking and tracing.

    If you do those, then you probably keep R0 below 1, and it bubbles along at a low level. And much of the economy can get back to work.
    One thing which needs to be enforced is maximum living to a house.

    2x people per large bedroom, 1x person per small bedroom and no conversion of living rooms into bedrooms.
    And what happens to people who suddenly fall foul of your arbritrary new limits?
  • ABZABZ Posts: 431
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    But it is true. 20,000 is a very good result. Germany will be feeling the same.

    A bad result would be Wuhan. 0.3% of the population in a crashing health system, which would mean around 200,000 dead.
    Germany will see way less than 20,000 imo we should be aiming for far less than 20,000 too. We should not accept this guff.
    “We should be aiming for far less than 20,000”

    That’s like saying we should be aiming for everyone to have a personal jet by august 2021.

    20,000 is achievable if we all do our bit. Stay home. Protect the NHS

    “Far less”, when we are already over 1000, and growth is exponential, is a fairy tale

    Especially since fatalities lag new cases by a few days/ weeks...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,384
    edited March 28
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is one of the biggest dangers of the current situation: people turning against each other.
    Though London based people owning a second home in Cornwall have been unpopular for decades.

    Ditto for other pretty scenery but low pay areas.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736

    Italy

    Active cases: 70,065 (+3,651 net increase)
    Deaths: 10,023 (+889)
    Healed: 12,384 (+1,434)

    New cases: 5,974

    Total tests: 429,526 (+35,447)

    Excellent New Cases seems to have started to go in the right direction.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 431

    Well, we have entered our 14 day self-isolation. My partner's teenage daughter is feeling poorly with symptoms very similar to regular flu after she travelled back from seeing her boyfriend in London a week ago, and we know that members of his family are currently ill with something that looks like Covid 19. It may not be, but I guess we still have to do the drill.

    The rest of us are well, but it's a strange feeling, waiting to start feeling ill. I keep imagining some tightness of the chest, but then it goes again - probably just worry! My partner and I are in our early 50s and in good health, so hopefully we'll come through it OK if it is Covid 19. My teenage son should be fine.

    Stay strong and good luck!!
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,726
    Nigelb said:

    eadric said:

    Looks like Wuhan had over 40,000 dead. In a city of 11m.



    That’s 0.36% of the population.
    By covering things up China is responsible for everything the rest of the world will suffer.
    Not everything. We are all responsible for our own actions - but only within the parameters of the information we have on which to make those decisions. China could - and should - have done a lot more.
    Radio Free Asia is not exactly the World Service.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio_Free_Asia
    I would take that story with almost as large a pinch of salt as the official Chinese numbers.

    And yes, of course we are responsible for our own actions. Taiwan, for example, which is not exactly a friend of China..., was able to get sufficient warning from what was reported to activate their pandemic response most effectively.
    This dude’s timeline is an anti-Chinese hate fest. He retweets a story alleging China deliberately sold defective Covid-19 tests to Turkey and Ukraine, and another than China pressured Italy into a “woke hug a Chinese person” campaign that spread the virus. He’s, in my unprofessional opinion, a nut. That’s not to say China has not behaved reprehensibly...but even so.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,959
    SLAM said:

    It is premature to suggest Germany is performing well in the fight against the Covid 19. If by testing they have identified a higher proportion of those having the Virus they will inevitably have a lower death rate.

    We know that Germany does not normally test deaths retrospectively unlike most European countries so Covid 19 deaths may be diagnosed incorrectly.

    Countries backing "Group Immunity" rather than tighter controls e.g. Swedan & Holland may suffer more deaths short-term but less in the longer term.

    I think the low death rate in Germany claim is compared to the total population.
    In Germany it is 5 deaths per million and in the UK 15. Also the outbreak in Germany started a week earlier than in the UK.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,548
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:
    Who would hang a dog on the evidence for any country there?
    The Ireland v NI number stands out. Has that number for Ireland advanced markedly in recent days (any Cheltenham effect?)
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    felix said:

    egg said:

    felix said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.
    For the record, you saying our government has done well? No incompetence, no errors?
    1. I live in Spain - everything is relative
    2. Every country has and is making mistakes.
    3. We follow the Science - it's the only sensible option.
    4. This is not yet finished - no-one wants Egg on their face at the end.
    5. The focus now should be saving lives not playing politics.
    2. Why is every country making mistakes?
    3. Not true. The culture of its place and its politics and the power of the lobby is in there as much as the science.
    5. Rally round the flag? You would like a pause on the proper scrutiny of proper politics? Those who don’t stop the politics and rally round the flag are traitors? You have good as much said it.

    governments don’t create wealth, it cannot offset damage to everyone’s interest, it’s already picking and choosing and painting in the future with measures it chooses, to protect as much of the economy when it comes out of mothballed, and timing and cost of these measures are important to discuss I think. just as recession and unemployment will hurt the health of citizens emotionally and physically, we might end up with underinvestment in health care, social care, and welfare at same timeon the basis future growth and debt prohibits it.
    Unless you are sure “whatever it takes” will always lead to the same outcome in everybody’s hands? So it’s right questions are asked, pressure groups have clarity and put pressure on for more action. Because we cant stop either the virus, or damage to economy, nor that there will be a bill to pay, but the ideal medium is where we slow the damage, and hold politicians to their Promise we have all been in this together every step of the way during and after.

    I am stand with Big John. Can we achieve the innovation and creativity needed now by closing down this and other discussion?

    For the record you are calling for normal politics and government scrutiny to be suspended? And everyone to rally round the flag?


  • felixfelix Posts: 10,561
    edited March 28
    ABZ said:

    Curious numbers from Italy. A constant number of cases (and deaths - nearly 1000 today) but actually quite a decent drop in new cases in Lombardy and a (slightly smaller) drop in Veneto (both good news). Need to see if the rest of the country follows this.

    Certainly, the Lombardy governor has been suggesting the last 24-48h that they are just at the point where cases start to descend. If this is the case, that is about 2.5-3 weeks after the lockdown, so very consistent with what the government here have stated. Will also be curious to see what is happening at the regional level in Spain - @Felix or @nichomar have you seen any useful plots of this?

    This site is useful. I tend to focus my study on Andalucia and nearby Murcia where I live. However, from the news I'd say we're at the stage of slowing rate of increase but perilously close to ICU overload in the worst affected areas. The situation is not good.

    Oops forgot this link: https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20200328/mapa-del-coronavirus-espana/2004681.shtml
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 2,726
    5974 new cases and 889 new deaths in Italy. Looks like they may have reached a plateau
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 17,384

    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    ABZ said:

    Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

    This is the inherent danger of starting lockdowns too soon. People will become stir crazy the longer it goes on although fear will ironically probable make most see sense. I would not expect any major lifting of restrictions before mid-May at best. We certainly aren't here in Spain.
    Remember, when you start to remove restrictions, it is about keeping R0 around or below 1, not about trying to drive it down to 0.

    Think of it like this:

    No restrictions - R0=3

    Complete lockdown - R0=0.2

    The complete lockdown brings daily cases down to sub 100 over the course of six weeks. (In reality, it will do better than that, because we're always two weeks behind the true new infections number.)

    What restrictions are needed to keep R0 from spiking to 3?

    Well, I'd keep sporting events behind closed doors. I'd keep bars and restaurants closed for now, and require people in workplaces or on public transport to wear masks. I'd implement rigorous testing, tracking and tracing.

    If you do those, then you probably keep R0 below 1, and it bubbles along at a low level. And much of the economy can get back to work.
    One thing which needs to be enforced is maximum living to a house.

    2x people per large bedroom, 1x person per small bedroom and no conversion of living rooms into bedrooms.
    And what happens to people who suddenly fall foul of your arbritrary new limits?
    They find somewhere else to live.

    I think its time to stop this sort of exploitation.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,959

    Well, we have entered our 14 day self-isolation. My partner's teenage daughter is feeling poorly with symptoms very similar to regular flu after she travelled back from seeing her boyfriend in London a week ago, and we know that members of his family are currently ill with something that looks like Covid 19. It may not be, but I guess we still have to do the drill.

    The rest of us are well, but it's a strange feeling, waiting to start feeling ill. I keep imagining some tightness of the chest, but then it goes again - probably just worry! My partner and I are in our early 50s and in good health, so hopefully we'll come through it OK if it is Covid 19. My teenage son should be fine.

    I hope it all goes well. Good luck.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited March 28
    Just to put some context to the 20,000 number...and without trying to sound heartless. Using egg-heads own model and numbers.

    Between 50% and 66% would have died this year anyway because of old age or underlying condition. Of the remainder, the "excess deaths", the order of magnitude is basically what we have seen on a number of occasions with a really bad flu season.

    20,000 sounds a lot, but the excess 33-50%, say ~8,000 excess deaths, isn't massively out of the ordinary for a particular bad year.

    The difference in this case compared to say flu is, no action or ineffective action, the system totally melts down and you don't get 8,000 excess deaths you get 80,000.

    I am glad our experts are willing to give the straight answer and no try and suger coat it. I am not really sure what BJO issue is with a scientist saying this.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,478
    Chris said:



    If they're disposable masks, wouldn't it have to be more like a billion?

    I wonder whether one outcome of this will be a retreat from disposables towards re-usables.

    Good evening, everybody.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,776
    ABZ said:

    Well, we have entered our 14 day self-isolation. My partner's teenage daughter is feeling poorly with symptoms very similar to regular flu after she travelled back from seeing her boyfriend in London a week ago, and we know that members of his family are currently ill with something that looks like Covid 19. It may not be, but I guess we still have to do the drill.

    The rest of us are well, but it's a strange feeling, waiting to start feeling ill. I keep imagining some tightness of the chest, but then it goes again - probably just worry! My partner and I are in our early 50s and in good health, so hopefully we'll come through it OK if it is Covid 19. My teenage son should be fine.

    Stay strong and good luck!!
    Yeh, best wishes and take care around the house. Those hands wont wash themselves.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,868

    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    ABZ said:

    Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

    This is the inherent danger of starting lockdowns too soon. People will become stir crazy the longer it goes on although fear will ironically probable make most see sense. I would not expect any major lifting of restrictions before mid-May at best. We certainly aren't here in Spain.
    Remember, when you start to remove restrictions, it is about keeping R0 around or below 1, not about trying to drive it down to 0.

    Think of it like this:

    No restrictions - R0=3

    Complete lockdown - R0=0.2

    The complete lockdown brings daily cases down to sub 100 over the course of six weeks. (In reality, it will do better than that, because we're always two weeks behind the true new infections number.)

    What restrictions are needed to keep R0 from spiking to 3?

    Well, I'd keep sporting events behind closed doors. I'd keep bars and restaurants closed for now, and require people in workplaces or on public transport to wear masks. I'd implement rigorous testing, tracking and tracing.

    If you do those, then you probably keep R0 below 1, and it bubbles along at a low level. And much of the economy can get back to work.
    One thing which needs to be enforced is maximum living to a house.

    2x people per large bedroom, 1x person per small bedroom and no conversion of living rooms into bedrooms.
    And what happens to people who suddenly fall foul of your arbritrary new limits?
    They find somewhere else to live.

    I think its time to stop this sort of exploitation.
    Build on the Green Belt Now. If we need foundations - the ultra greens can provide them. Personally.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 19,512
    That's a reasonably large drop off in new cases and a constantly high level of testing. Hopefully this is the beginning of a downwards trend.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,382
    17 million Italians watched the Pope to give out the indulgence yesterday evening.
  • felixfelix Posts: 10,561
    egg said:

    felix said:

    egg said:

    felix said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.
    For the record, you saying our government has done well? No incompetence, no errors?
    1. I live in Spain - everything is relative
    2. Every country has and is making mistakes.
    3. We follow the Science - it's the only sensible option.
    4. This is not yet finished - no-one wants Egg on their face at the end.
    5. The focus now should be saving lives not playing politics.
    2. Why is every country making mistakes?
    3. Not true. The culture of its place and its politics and the power of the lobby is in there as much as the science.
    5. Rally round the flag? You would like a pause on the proper scrutiny of proper politics? Those who don’t stop the politics and rally round the flag are traitors? You have good as much said it.

    governments don’t create wealth, it cannot offset damage to everyone’s interest, it’s already picking and choosing and painting in the future with measures it chooses, to protect as much of the economy when it comes out of mothballed, and timing and cost of these measures are important to discuss I think. just as recession and unemployment will hurt the health of citizens emotionally and physically, we might end up with underinvestment in health care, social care, and welfare at same timeon the basis future growth and debt prohibits it.
    Unless you are sure “whatever it takes” will always lead to the same outcome in everybody’s hands? So it’s right questions are asked, pressure groups have clarity and put pressure on for more action. Because we cant stop either the virus, or damage to economy, nor that there will be a bill to pay, but the ideal medium is where we slow the damage, and hold politicians to their Promise we have all been in this together every step of the way during and after.

    I am stand with Big John. Can we achieve the innovation and creativity needed now by closing down this and other discussion?

    For the record you are calling for normal politics and government scrutiny to be suspended? And everyone to rally round the flag?


    Lol - that was all a bit scrambled egg really wasn't it. Putting words into people's mouths - Fake News about the government minister who wasn't. I'm not the one with the problem here.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,959

    Italy

    Active cases: 70,065 (+3,651 net increase)
    Deaths: 10,023 (+889)
    Healed: 12,384 (+1,434)

    New cases: 5,974

    Total tests: 429,526 (+35,447)

    Hey Andrea, I was thinking last night I haven't seen a post from you in the last week or so. I hope all is well.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,613
    egg said:

    felix said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.
    For the record, you saying our government has done well? No incompetence, no errors?
    Any government making 0 errors in a challenge like coronavirus is no more believable than the North Korean leader hitting 18 holes in one in his only round of golf.

    Of course governments responses arent perfect, its a situation with a load of unknowns, extremely complex and requires fast answers.

    If you set your criteria of doing well at the impossible, it is completely pointless measuring the outcome.

    They have done well. They includes us, especially a wide range of key workers and frontline NHS.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,976
    ABZ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    felix said:

    ABZ said:

    Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

    This is the inherent danger of starting lockdowns too soon. People will become stir crazy the longer it goes on although fear will ironically probable make most see sense. I would not expect any major lifting of restrictions before mid-May at best. We certainly aren't here in Spain.
    Remember, when you start to remove restrictions, it is about keeping R0 around or below 1, not about trying to drive it down to 0.

    Think of it like this:

    No restrictions - R0=3

    Complete lockdown - R0=0.2

    The complete lockdown brings daily cases down to sub 100 over the course of six weeks. (In reality, it will do better than that, because we're always two weeks behind the true new infections number.)

    What restrictions are needed to keep R0 from spiking to 3?

    Well, I'd keep sporting events behind closed doors. I'd keep bars and restaurants closed for now, and require people in workplaces or on public transport to wear masks. I'd implement rigorous testing, tracking and tracing.

    If you do those, then you probably keep R0 below 1, and it bubbles along at a low level. And much of the economy can get back to work.
    I'd also suggest a severe curtailment of international travel (or at least a period of isolation upon returning) and some degree of staggered working arrangement (e.g., 3 days working at home for 2 days in the office) to keep the rate at a manageable level. For those who can, they should be encouraged to work at home more.
    It's all a finger in the air stuff...before we get a game changer (like a vaccine)....we need to be imposing measures that fuck up the economy to a greater or lesser extent...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,548

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is one of the biggest dangers of the current situation: people turning against each other.
    Though London based people owning a second home in Cornwall have been unpopular for decades.

    Ditto for other pretty scenery but low pay areas.
    We've been living full time in south Devon for eight years.

    I'm not sure it is long enough to have any chance of a ventilator.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,431
    ABZ said:

    Curious numbers from Italy. A constant number of cases (and deaths - nearly 1000 today) but actually quite a decent drop in new cases in Lombardy and a (slightly smaller) drop in Veneto (both good news). Need to see if the rest of the country follows this.

    Certainly, the Lombardy governor has been suggesting the last 24-48h that they are just at the point where cases start to descend. If this is the case, that is about 2.5-3 weeks after the lockdown, so very consistent with what the government here have stated. Will also be curious to see what is happening at the regional level in Spain - @Felix or @nichomar have you seen any useful plots of this?

    My focus is Valencia, we are about three hours drive from Felix and I have a friend who has a house in the same town. I’ve seen no regular tracking by autonomous community but It does look as though we are topping out.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,009
    Alistair said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    IanB2 said:

    Just back from walking the dog, ISTM that there are a lot fewer people out and about today. The weather isn’t quite as nice, although fairly decent this morning. I wonder whether the top trio having come down with the virus has made it real for more people?

    Lovely day here for a change
    Looks like independence is not going to happen no matter how much you 'will' it too Malc

    Todays poll is evidence of the appreciation of the union by the Scots who recognise the strength of the union at times of national emergency

    I have always maintained the Scots would not vote for independence, but covid 19 has ensured it
    Weren't you recently humpfing about someone passing comment on a country in which they didn't live? Was it because you thought they didn't have right to stick their oar in or that they didn't have a clue, being so far away 'n' everything?
    My family have an absolute right to comment on Scots independence and will continue to do so. My children and grandchildren are half Scots and are entitled to wear their kilts

    Of course you may have some difficulty in understanding independence is over, but over it is

    And by the way, I was schooled in Berwick on Tweed and have lived with the desire of some for independence since those days in the 1950's, and of course lived in Edinburgh and was married in Lossiemouth
    Thinking someone has to be 'entitled' to be able to wear a kilt is a pretty good signifier of faux Jockism if ever I saw it. I have to break it to you that Chas & Dave could have worn kilts if they'd fancied it.

    Still, at least we know that you think some people are permitted to pass comment from a distance and others not.
    He said “their” rather than “a” - I’d read that as “their” tartan.
    Again, you can wear any old tartan you wish, no one but nobs and the McTourist industry gives a ****.
    Sure. And if I put up a flagpole in the front garden no one* would give a sh1t. Technically against the rules.

    However it’s really a matter of courtesy. Technically I’m entitled to wear Graham tartan (as a good Glaswegian boy) but the only thing I wear occasionally is a scarf. It would feel like passing myself off as something I’m not. In the same way, I’d be slightly peeved if someone was to adopt my logo for their own use.
    The tartan nonsense is almost entirely a bullshit Victorian invention that has fuck all to do with Scotland.
    I thought it was a “reimagining” of a suppresses highland tradition by the Victorians?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,959

    Just to put some context to the 20,000 number...and without trying to sound heartless. Using egg-heads own model and numbers.

    Between 50% and 66% would have died this year anyway because of old age or underlying condition. Of the remainder, the "excess deaths", the order of magnitude is basically what we have seen on a number of occasions with a really bad flu season.

    20,000 sounds a lot, but the excess 33-50%, say ~8,000 excess deaths, isn't massively out of the ordinary for a particular bad year.

    The difference in this case compared to say flu is, no action or ineffective action, the system totally melts down and you don't get 8,000 excess deaths you get 80,000.

    I am glad our experts are willing to give the straight answer and no try and suger coat it.

    Can you give example of over 40 medical staff in a country dying in one month due to seasonal flu, as has happened in Italy?

    I'm not saying it hasn't happened, but if it has I would like to know.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,976

    17 million Italians watched the Pope to give out the indulgence yesterday evening.

    What else have they got to do? Without football, the apperativo etc....

    If they introduced a drying paint competition at 7.00 for an hour on RaiUno...that would probably better it...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is one of the biggest dangers of the current situation: people turning against each other.
    Though London based people owning a second home in Cornwall have been unpopular for decades.

    Ditto for other pretty scenery but low pay areas.
    In a free society you can't stop people owning second homes without serious infringements on liberty.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736
    felix said:

    felix said:

    felix said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.
    No I dont.

    20,000 deaths is not a good outcome that's all.
    You lie - Which government minister has said that?
    The Government minister was the NHSE MO apparently. I would sack him tonight if I had my way 20,000 deaths and we will have done very well.

    No we wont.
    He is NOT a government minister. He is the NHS Medical Director and not a politician. FAKE NEWS.
    I have just said that. You are trying to misdirect again aren't you and not address the point about whether 20,000 deaths means we have done well.

    I thought the bloke saying it was a minister (about an hour ago,) he wasnt . You do know NHSE MO in my previous post meant I was acknowledging that and I said I would sack him as I think it is a disgraceful thing for the Medical Officer of NHSE to say. But the main point what is "done well" less deaths per million the Germany I think
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 34,548
    I suspect when Boris is somewhat better, he will have to make a similar statement to the people of the UK.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,382
    edited March 28
    eristdoof said:

    Italy

    Active cases: 70,065 (+3,651 net increase)
    Deaths: 10,023 (+889)
    Healed: 12,384 (+1,434)

    New cases: 5,974

    Total tests: 429,526 (+35,447)

    Hey Andrea, I was thinking last night I haven't seen a post from you in the last week or so. I hope all is well.

    thanks. Yes, so far.
    Here where I live the situation is not as disastrous as in nearby Bergamo (and Brescia looks as bad). In the municipality we have 26 verified cases out of 7,000 inhabitants.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,776
    NYTimes:

    "Minutes after President Trump floated the possibility of a quarantine for the New York region, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Saturday dismissed the idea, calling it “unworkable.”"
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    TGOHF666 said:

    algarkirk said:

    tyson said:

    It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....

    The UK has 1700 deaths a day on average. Until we know what sort of spike this is in the longer term we don't know much.
    Well quite - the world is losing its mind. Or it had no appreciation of normal mortality rates.

    "I just did what I do best. I took your little plan and I turned it on itself. Look what I did to this city with a few drums of gas and a couple of bullets. Hmmm? You know... You know what I've noticed? Nobody panics when things go "according to plan." Even if the plan is horrifying! If, tomorrow, I tell the press that, like, a gang banger will get shot, or a truckload of soldiers will be blown up, nobody panics, because it's all "part of the plan". But when I say that one little old mayor will die, well then everyone loses their minds. Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I'm an agent of chaos. Oh, and you know the thing about chaos? It's fair!"
    It’s funny you should post that, when I think of corona it’s this film character I think of too.

    Think of his reaction in the net at the end, when the games up. Until beaten It’s done it’s thing at our expense, and that is pretty much all there is to it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022
    It's strange how the same people who criticise migration from London to Cornwall tend to be in favour of it between different countries. How does that make sense?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 982

    kamski said:

    Nigelb said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    That was the NHS England medical director.
    You're quoting those pesky fact things again...
    I presume you think the fact that Germany has a far lower death rate is not a fact or just a pesky fact?
    500000 per week estimated capacity. Another estimate 360000.
    God knows how many are actually being done. In itself an indication of the lack of national coordination in Germany.
    I guess deaths will end up similar to UK,.
    Would you like a £20 charity bet on that

    I say Germany death rate per million will be lower than ours. I hope I lose BTW
    I'd say per million perhaps lower in Germany, though that might depend on how well vulnerable people are isolated from infection. I have the impression this is being taken more seriously in the UK.
    But overall not too dissimilar rates. The German health system might be a bit less overwhelmed. The NHS is simply underfunded.

    I wouldn't like to bet on this subject, I'm a bit squeamish. But I would be surprised if UK death rate ended up, say twice the German rate (or vice versa).
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,959
    edited March 28
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is one of the biggest dangers of the current situation: people turning against each other.
    Though London based people owning a second home in Cornwall have been unpopular for decades.

    Ditto for other pretty scenery but low pay areas.
    In a free society you can't stop people owning second homes without serious infringements on liberty.
    No but you can set tax or other financial rules to make it much more expensive. I'm not advocating it, but it is easy to do, and many cities are starting to do this because of the Air BnB problem.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736

    Just to put some context to the 20,000 number...and without trying to sound heartless. Using egg-heads own model and numbers.

    Between 50% and 66% would have died this year anyway because of old age or underlying condition. Of the remainder, the "excess deaths", the order of magnitude is basically what we have seen on a number of occasions with a really bad flu season.

    20,000 sounds a lot, but the excess 33-50%, say ~8,000 excess deaths, isn't massively out of the ordinary for a particular bad year.

    The difference in this case compared to say flu is, no action or ineffective action, the system totally melts down and you don't get 8,000 excess deaths you get 80,000.

    I am glad our experts are willing to give the straight answer and no try and suger coat it. I am not really sure what BJO issue is with a scientist saying this.

    He is neither a politician or a scientist. He is a Medical Director at NHSE!! He sounds like young Mr Grace 19,999 dead you've all done very well
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    felix said:

    egg said:

    felix said:

    egg said:

    felix said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.
    For the record, you saying our government has done well? No incompetence, no errors?
    1. I live in Spain - everything is relative
    2. Every country has and is making mistakes.
    3. We follow the Science - it's the only sensible option.
    4. This is not yet finished - no-one wants Egg on their face at the end.
    5. The focus now should be saving lives not playing politics.
    2. Why is every country making mistakes?
    3. Not true. The culture of its place and its politics and the power of the lobby is in there as much as the science.
    5. Rally round the flag? You would like a pause on the proper scrutiny of proper politics? Those who don’t stop the politics and rally round the flag are traitors? You have good as much said it.

    governments don’t create wealth, it cannot offset damage to everyone’s interest, it’s already picking and choosing and painting in the future with measures it chooses, to protect as much of the economy when it comes out of mothballed, and timing and cost of these measures are important to discuss I think. just as recession and unemployment will hurt the health of citizens emotionally and physically, we might end up with underinvestment in health care, social care, and welfare at same timeon the basis future growth and debt prohibits it.
    Unless you are sure “whatever it takes” will always lead to the same outcome in everybody’s hands? So it’s right questions are asked, pressure groups have clarity and put pressure on for more action. Because we cant stop either the virus, or damage to economy, nor that there will be a bill to pay, but the ideal medium is where we slow the damage, and hold politicians to their Promise we have all been in this together every step of the way during and after.

    I am stand with Big John. Can we achieve the innovation and creativity needed now by closing down this and other discussion?

    For the record you are calling for normal politics and government scrutiny to be suspended? And everyone to rally round the flag?


    Lol - that was all a bit scrambled egg really wasn't it. Putting words into people's mouths - Fake News about the government minister who wasn't. I'm not the one with the problem here.
    Good I’m glad you agree the challenge and questioning and exposure of good politics needs to continue as normal. Apologies for doubting you.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,009
    eadric said:

    ABZ said:

    Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

    By my seat of pants maths, Britain will be registering 1000-1500 deaths a day when we hit the peak. That means.... a lot of people in hospital
    Was that the same maths that led you to predict up to 2 m dead in the U.K.?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 40,746
    As befits these troubled times, the trial of Alex Salmond ended with more of a whimper than a bang, fall-out reserved for another day.

    That will be an unusual event in the annals of the SNP for, no matter where they look, there is nobody else to blame. All the dramatis personae remain encamped within the grand temple of Nationalism. Let’s hope there is plenty room for social distancing....

    Anyway, there are no real winners. Salmond will doubtless prefer lockdown in Strichen to Saughton but, as his former chief of staff, Alex Bell, succinctly put it: “When your best defence is ‘I’m sleazy, not criminal’, it’s nothing to smile about.”


    https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/shame-bute-house-divided-brian-wilson-2521030
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 59,922

    NYTimes:

    "Minutes after President Trump floated the possibility of a quarantine for the New York region, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Saturday dismissed the idea, calling it “unworkable.”"

    Everything is "unworkable" till it isn't.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736

    eristdoof said:

    Italy

    Active cases: 70,065 (+3,651 net increase)
    Deaths: 10,023 (+889)
    Healed: 12,384 (+1,434)

    New cases: 5,974

    Total tests: 429,526 (+35,447)

    Hey Andrea, I was thinking last night I haven't seen a post from you in the last week or so. I hope all is well.

    thanks. Yes, so far.
    Here where I live the situation is not as disastrous as in nearby Bergamo (and Brescia looks as bad). In the municipality we have 26 verified cases out of 7,000 inhabitants.
    More than 3% flipping heck what is it in Bergamo?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 5,431
    Whilst we have a Europe plus US focus the problem in the rest of the world may be passing us by. Is that FT graphic still available and updated?
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,959
    It's interesting that this article does not include the rumour that Germany is not testing untested cadavers for Covid.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,356
    So, the numbers from Italy are out, and they're OK.

    New cases were essentially flat on yesterday (5,974 vs 5,959), while testing was up 7% to 35,447. The proportion of positive tests continues to trend down, this is the equal lowest (17%) in recent times, and is almost half the peak.

    The increase in total number of cases also continued to trend down, growing at 6.9% - it was in double digits until this time last week.

    However, perhaps because Italian household size is bigger than Chinese (meaning there's more room for in family transmission), perhaps because the lockdown was not as stringent as in China, and perhaps because the Italians are now catching cases earlier, the rate of new cases is not coming down as fast as I would have expected.

    I would have expected new cases to have dropped c. 2,000 from peak, to 4,500. That's not happened. The Italian restrictions are bringing the outbreak under control, but they're not seeing the very rapid drop off in new cases that was seen in China and South Korea.

    Now, we shouldn't be too negative. The Italians were only doing 17,000 tests, and were catching around 5,000 cases. They're now doing more than twice that number and only catching the same number of cases. This suggests that there was probably a lot of under-reporting before.

    Nevertheless, if I am to maintain my cheery disposition, I do want to see Italian new cases drop to consistently below 4,000 (and ideally, 3,500) by the end of next week.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,007
    The end of free movement between red and blue states?

  • ABZABZ Posts: 431

    eristdoof said:

    Italy

    Active cases: 70,065 (+3,651 net increase)
    Deaths: 10,023 (+889)
    Healed: 12,384 (+1,434)

    New cases: 5,974

    Total tests: 429,526 (+35,447)

    Hey Andrea, I was thinking last night I haven't seen a post from you in the last week or so. I hope all is well.

    thanks. Yes, so far.
    Here where I live the situation is not as disastrous as in nearby Bergamo (and Brescia looks as bad). In the municipality we have 26 verified cases out of 7,000 inhabitants.
    More than 3% flipping heck what is it in Bergamo?
    0.3% :)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736

    NYTimes:

    "Minutes after President Trump floated the possibility of a quarantine for the New York region, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo on Saturday dismissed the idea, calling it “unworkable.”"

    I am with Trump on that one myself
  • ABZABZ Posts: 431
    rcs1000 said:

    So, the numbers from Italy are out, and they're OK.

    New cases were essentially flat on yesterday (5,974 vs 5,959), while testing was up 7% to 35,447. The proportion of positive tests continues to trend down, this is the equal lowest (17%) in recent times, and is almost half the peak.

    The increase in total number of cases also continued to trend down, growing at 6.9% - it was in double digits until this time last week.

    However, perhaps because Italian household size is bigger than Chinese (meaning there's more room for in family transmission), perhaps because the lockdown was not as stringent as in China, and perhaps because the Italians are now catching cases earlier, the rate of new cases is not coming down as fast as I would have expected.

    I would have expected new cases to have dropped c. 2,000 from peak, to 4,500. That's not happened. The Italian restrictions are bringing the outbreak under control, but they're not seeing the very rapid drop off in new cases that was seen in China and South Korea.

    Now, we shouldn't be too negative. The Italians were only doing 17,000 tests, and were catching around 5,000 cases. They're now doing more than twice that number and only catching the same number of cases. This suggests that there was probably a lot of under-reporting before.

    Nevertheless, if I am to maintain my cheery disposition, I do want to see Italian new cases drop to consistently below 4,000 (and ideally, 3,500) by the end of next week.

    Could also be a plateau effect I think... I've recalibrated my expectations towards expecting a one week plateau before dropoff (14-21 day incubation period + more testing catching these later cases).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,776

    The end of free movement between red and blue states?

    Cuomo just said it wasn't "legally enforceable"
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,356
    SLAM said:

    It is premature to suggest Germany is performing well in the fight against the Covid 19. If by testing they have identified a higher proportion of those having the Virus they will inevitably have a lower death rate.

    We know that Germany does not normally test deaths retrospectively unlike most European countries so Covid 19 deaths may be diagnosed incorrectly.

    Countries backing "Group Immunity" rather than tighter controls e.g. Swedan & Holland may suffer more deaths short-term but less in the longer term.

    At the same time, we only count deaths in hospital. (And I suspect pretty much anybody who arrived in hospital with breathing problems gets tested, even if only to make sure they don't indect others.)

    This means people who die in nursing homes don't get counted in our figres.

    No set of numbers is perfect. But I think the biggest reason Germany's death rate is so much lower is that they're picking up a lot of presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases that we simply miss.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,976
    Charles said:

    eadric said:

    ABZ said:

    Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

    By my seat of pants maths, Britain will be registering 1000-1500 deaths a day when we hit the peak. That means.... a lot of people in hospital
    Was that the same maths that led you to predict up to 2 m dead in the U.K.?
    260 deaths per day to a 1000 isn't that big a leap...two weeks of the numbers going up as they are now, doubling every 3 days......
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 35,134

    The end of free movement between red and blue states?

    Doesn't this sort of comment just encourage anyone who wants to leave those states to do so now before the quarantine comes into effect?
  • isamisam Posts: 32,690
    edited March 28
    tyson said:

    It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....

    There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).

    This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.
    That is a very good point you have made....

    Exactly!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 14,147
    @rcs1000 - do you believe the Chinese numbers?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,007

    The end of free movement between red and blue states?

    Cuomo just said it wasn't "legally enforceable"
    Rights granted under the Privileges and Immunities Clause of the constitution are fairly opaque. It could plausibly be closed down under the present circumstances.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 5,613
    eristdoof said:

    Just to put some context to the 20,000 number...and without trying to sound heartless. Using egg-heads own model and numbers.

    Between 50% and 66% would have died this year anyway because of old age or underlying condition. Of the remainder, the "excess deaths", the order of magnitude is basically what we have seen on a number of occasions with a really bad flu season.

    20,000 sounds a lot, but the excess 33-50%, say ~8,000 excess deaths, isn't massively out of the ordinary for a particular bad year.

    The difference in this case compared to say flu is, no action or ineffective action, the system totally melts down and you don't get 8,000 excess deaths you get 80,000.

    I am glad our experts are willing to give the straight answer and no try and suger coat it.

    Can you give example of over 40 medical staff in a country dying in one month due to seasonal flu, as has happened in Italy?

    I'm not saying it hasn't happened, but if it has I would like to know.
    UK 1968 must have happened? With 80,000 flu deaths over a year, unevenly distributed, it would happen even if medical staff had normal risk which they clearly dont.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736
    felix said:

    egg said:

    felix said:

    egg said:

    felix said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    You're losing it big time. You ignore every other country to make a cheap political point. Shameful.
    For the record, you saying our government has done well? No incompetence, no errors?
    1. I live in Spain - everything is relative
    2. Every country has and is making mistakes.
    3. We follow the Science - it's the only sensible option.
    4. This is not yet finished - no-one wants Egg on their face at the end.
    5. The focus now should be saving lives not playing politics.
    2. Why is every country making mistakes?
    3. Not true. The culture of its place and its politics and the power of the lobby is in there as much as the science.
    5. Rally round the flag? You would like a pause on the proper scrutiny of proper politics? Those who don’t stop the politics and rally round the flag are traitors? You have good as much said it.

    governments don’t create wealth, it cannot offset damage to everyone’s interest, it’s already picking and choosing and painting in the future with measures it chooses, to protect as much of the economy when it comes out of mothballed, and timing and cost of these measures are important to discuss I think. just as recession and unemployment will hurt the health of citizens emotionally and physically, we might end up with underinvestment in health care, social care, and welfare at same timeon the basis future growth and debt prohibits it.
    Unless you are sure “whatever it takes” will always lead to the same outcome in everybody’s hands? So it’s right questions are asked, pressure groups have clarity and put pressure on for more action. Because we cant stop either the virus, or damage to economy, nor that there will be a bill to pay, but the ideal medium is where we slow the damage, and hold politicians to their Promise we have all been in this together every step of the way during and after.

    I am stand with Big John. Can we achieve the innovation and creativity needed now by closing down this and other discussion?

    For the record you are calling for normal politics and government scrutiny to be suspended? And everyone to rally round the flag?


    Lol - that was all a bit scrambled egg really wasn't it. Putting words into people's mouths - Fake News about the government minister who wasn't. I'm not the one with the problem here.
    Get over yourself and tell us what means we have done very well in you opinion
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 16,352
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is one of the biggest dangers of the current situation: people turning against each other.
    Though London based people owning a second home in Cornwall have been unpopular for decades.

    Ditto for other pretty scenery but low pay areas.
    In a free society you can't stop people owning second homes without serious infringements on liberty.
    In the medium term, I expect a revival of domestic tourism. A lot will be in second homes.

    Incidentally, my Greek and Italian colleagues all seem to have holiday villas. Less pressure on housing there though maybe, as only urbanised more recently.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,649

    The end of free movement between red and blue states?

    Doesn't this sort of comment just encourage anyone who wants to leave those states to do so now before the quarantine comes into effect?
    Our government made the same mistake. By trailing tighter restrictions, it created an incentive for people to make the most of the freedom they still had.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 29,138

    The end of free movement between red and blue states?

    Boy, he’s REALLY anxious to stop Cuomo making a late run for the Dem nomination, isn’t he?
  • ABZABZ Posts: 431
    tyson said:

    Charles said:

    eadric said:

    ABZ said:

    Question: If we follow the pattern of Italy and Spain we will see case numbers rising across the country for the next 7-9 days. Following that there seems likely to be a period of increases in new cases by the same amount each day for a period. How will the country react to that, and that cases are not declining immediately? Will we demand tougher measures or will people be patient enough to (hopefully!) see it out and for cases to start tailing off a little?

    By my seat of pants maths, Britain will be registering 1000-1500 deaths a day when we hit the peak. That means.... a lot of people in hospital
    Was that the same maths that led you to predict up to 2 m dead in the U.K.?
    260 deaths per day to a 1000 isn't that big a leap...two weeks of the numbers going up as they are now, doubling every 3 days......
    Actually, I think @eadric may be about right. We can expect overall cases to double every 5-6 days now lockdown has commenced, so expecting around 70,000 cases in the UK (two doublings) by the end of next week is likely. (The number will change if we test more and if we change who we test of course.) Looking at other countries, the death rate @eadric suggests seems feasible towards the end of next week, likely continuing for a week or so before tailing off again.
  • tysontyson Posts: 5,976
    isam said:

    tyson said:

    It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....

    tyson said:

    tyson said:

    It's funny how we get used to the new reality...the UK posting 250 plus deaths today doesn't even register....

    There are about 1,500 deaths in the UK each and every day. Given the disproportionate impact on those with existing conditions, a fair number of the 250 would have been in the 1500 (we'll only really see excess death rates in figures later).

    This is not in any way meant to minimise the situation, which will get significantly worse before it gets better and could get MUCH worse for a sustained period if we don't all do our bit. It's also not meant to minimise the pain those families are feeling. But we do need to put some context around it to avoid panic and depression.
    That is a very good point you have made....

    Exactly!
    I do get that point...and that it is nature's course that people die every day..but I did regret making that post afterwards.....
  • SLAMSLAM Posts: 4
    rcs1000 said:

    SLAM said:

    It is premature to suggest Germany is performing well in the fight against the Covid 19. If by testing they have identified a higher proportion of those having the Virus they will inevitably have a lower death rate.

    We know that Germany does not normally test deaths retrospectively unlike most European countries so Covid 19 deaths may be diagnosed incorrectly.

    Countries backing "Group Immunity" rather than tighter controls e.g. Swedan & Holland may suffer more deaths short-term but less in the longer term.

    At the same time, we only count deaths in hospital. (And I suspect pretty much anybody who arrived in hospital with breathing problems gets tested, even if only to make sure they don't indect others.)

    This means people who die in nursing homes don't get counted in our figres.

    No set of numbers is perfect. But I think the biggest reason Germany's death rate is so much lower is that they're picking up a lot of presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases that we simply miss.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 20,548

    The end of free movement between red and blue states?

    Gotta keep those aging, Trump voting fatties unscathed till November.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736
    ABZ said:

    eristdoof said:

    Italy

    Active cases: 70,065 (+3,651 net increase)
    Deaths: 10,023 (+889)
    Healed: 12,384 (+1,434)

    New cases: 5,974

    Total tests: 429,526 (+35,447)

    Hey Andrea, I was thinking last night I haven't seen a post from you in the last week or so. I hope all is well.

    thanks. Yes, so far.
    Here where I live the situation is not as disastrous as in nearby Bergamo (and Brescia looks as bad). In the municipality we have 26 verified cases out of 7,000 inhabitants.
    More than 3% flipping heck what is it in Bergamo?
    0.3% :)
    Oh yes what is it in Bergamo?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 14,572
    rcs1000 said:

    So, the numbers from Italy are out, and they're OK.

    New cases were essentially flat on yesterday (5,974 vs 5,959), while testing was up 7% to 35,447. The proportion of positive tests continues to trend down, this is the equal lowest (17%) in recent times, and is almost half the peak.

    The increase in total number of cases also continued to trend down, growing at 6.9% - it was in double digits until this time last week.

    However, perhaps because Italian household size is bigger than Chinese (meaning there's more room for in family transmission), perhaps because the lockdown was not as stringent as in China, and perhaps because the Italians are now catching cases earlier, the rate of new cases is not coming down as fast as I would have expected.

    I would have expected new cases to have dropped c. 2,000 from peak, to 4,500. That's not happened. The Italian restrictions are bringing the outbreak under control, but they're not seeing the very rapid drop off in new cases that was seen in China and South Korea.

    Now, we shouldn't be too negative. The Italians were only doing 17,000 tests, and were catching around 5,000 cases. They're now doing more than twice that number and only catching the same number of cases. This suggests that there was probably a lot of under-reporting before.

    Nevertheless, if I am to maintain my cheery disposition, I do want to see Italian new cases drop to consistently below 4,000 (and ideally, 3,500) by the end of next week.

    This is really helpful analysis, thanks. I don't quite get the "lot of under-reporting before" sentence. Doesn't it show either that they are now testing a wide range of people than the obviously ill (which is good and something we need to be doing), or that incidence is in fact dropping?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 28,009

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    Do you have a source for 500k tests per week?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,649
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is one of the biggest dangers of the current situation: people turning against each other.
    Though London based people owning a second home in Cornwall have been unpopular for decades.

    Ditto for other pretty scenery but low pay areas.
    In a free society you can't stop people owning second homes without serious infringements on liberty.
    In the medium term, I expect a revival of domestic tourism. A lot will be in second homes.

    Incidentally, my Greek and Italian colleagues all seem to have holiday villas. Less pressure on housing there though maybe, as only urbanised more recently.
    How are you and yours doing?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,356
    edited March 28
    So...

    I decided to look at Italy on a "week-over-week" change in new cases basis. This seemed sensible because some days are going to have fewer tests (Sat, Sun) than others. And it's good to have a long-term trend.

    Here are the numbers:
    11/03/2020	294.0%
    12/03/2020 244.7%
    13/03/2020 227.4%
    14/03/2020 180.4%
    15/03/2020 140.6%
    16/03/2020 79.9%
    17/03/2020 260.9%
    18/03/2020 81.9%
    19/03/2020 100.8%
    20/03/2020 135.0%
    21/03/2020 87.5%
    22/03/2020 54.9%
    23/03/2020 16.9%
    24/03/2020 48.9%
    25/03/2020 23.8%
    26/03/2020 15.6%
    27/03/2020 -0.5%
    28/03/2020 -8.9%
    Now, there's clearly a lot of variability. But I think this is probably a good dataset to watch.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 14,736
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:
    This is one of the biggest dangers of the current situation: people turning against each other.
    Though London based people owning a second home in Cornwall have been unpopular for decades.

    Ditto for other pretty scenery but low pay areas.
    In a free society you can't stop people owning second homes without serious infringements on liberty.
    In the medium term, I expect a revival of domestic tourism. A lot will be in second homes.

    Incidentally, my Greek and Italian colleagues all seem to have holiday villas. Less pressure on housing there though maybe, as only urbanised more recently.
    How are you today.

    Have you had your test result?
  • ABZABZ Posts: 431

    rcs1000 said:

    So, the numbers from Italy are out, and they're OK.

    New cases were essentially flat on yesterday (5,974 vs 5,959), while testing was up 7% to 35,447. The proportion of positive tests continues to trend down, this is the equal lowest (17%) in recent times, and is almost half the peak.

    The increase in total number of cases also continued to trend down, growing at 6.9% - it was in double digits until this time last week.

    However, perhaps because Italian household size is bigger than Chinese (meaning there's more room for in family transmission), perhaps because the lockdown was not as stringent as in China, and perhaps because the Italians are now catching cases earlier, the rate of new cases is not coming down as fast as I would have expected.

    I would have expected new cases to have dropped c. 2,000 from peak, to 4,500. That's not happened. The Italian restrictions are bringing the outbreak under control, but they're not seeing the very rapid drop off in new cases that was seen in China and South Korea.

    Now, we shouldn't be too negative. The Italians were only doing 17,000 tests, and were catching around 5,000 cases. They're now doing more than twice that number and only catching the same number of cases. This suggests that there was probably a lot of under-reporting before.

    Nevertheless, if I am to maintain my cheery disposition, I do want to see Italian new cases drop to consistently below 4,000 (and ideally, 3,500) by the end of next week.

    This is really helpful analysis, thanks. I don't quite get the "lot of under-reporting before" sentence. Doesn't it show either that they are now testing a wide range of people than the obviously ill (which is good and something we need to be doing), or that incidence is in fact dropping?
    It shows both fortunately! Lombardy has extended testing to people with fewer symptoms and that the incidence overall is dropping.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 31,356
    Charles said:

    Germany 500,000 tests per week. Excess supply of Critical Care beds and Ventilators. Very low death rate.

    It is shameful we accept that a Government Minister says on live TV 20,000 deaths in the UK means we have done well.

    Expectation management of the worst kind reminiscent of something Trump might say.

    Do you have a source for 500k tests per week?
    I would be staggered if Germany was doing 500k per week. (Impressed. Staggered. And also surprised.)
This discussion has been closed.