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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CO-19: It won’t be long before the global total tops the milli

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,007

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    Not sure I would go that far. But I can certainly see Western nations putting the thumbs on the scales to ensure more "essential" industries aren't allowed to become Chinese monopolies e.g. loads of base chemicals production essential for so many things is now a near monopoly Chinese operation.
    I would go that far

    I reckon - I’ve had wine - coronavirus is going to kick off a new Cold War. There will be two competing worlds, western capitalism (more individualistic, but sobered by corona) centred around a somewhat humbled America, and Asian state-directed capitalism, centred around a disliked China, with very uncomfortable satellite states in Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Etc.

    The West is sufficient unto itself. It can feed itself and make what it needs.

    The breakdown between the two worlds will be very painful, but there won’t be all out war.

    Basically every hunch I’ve had about corona has come true, so far, so I’m backing this one, too, despite my ingestion of a bottle and a half of Rioja Gran Reserva Cune 2010
    I think we're heading for a new Cold War too, but I think the CCP will be more isolated than that. Russia will be in a very uncomfortable position and may end up turning towards the West sooner rather than later.
    Russian patriotism is too hardwired into hating the West. Then *need* the West as the enemy.
    I don't think it's fundamentally different to the classic intra-European rivalries, which we've largely been able to transcend.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 35,135

    30,000 - 40,000 seems perfectly believable. They had this thing run wild and unrestricted for probably 3 months, in a densely populated city of 11 million, while at the peak had 10 of millions of people across China travelling all over the country for New Year.

    They had to build 16 extra "hospitals" for just Wuhan.
    Yet this has spread across the whole world in a matter of weeks - but never really left Hubei Province as far as anyone can tell.

    I don't understand why that is, given the lockdown came relatively late in China.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,561
    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    If we want to be cynical about it then the next week looks like being a ramping up of deaths, so if someone were wargaming things now would be a good time to start a new phase of messaging.

    But I tend not to believe government plans are so effective in their calculation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,776

    kle4 said:

    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: I haven't watched any TV series that have been produced since the X Files in the 1990s, so maybe this is my big chance to catch up on what everyone says has been a golden age for TV dramas.

    The Wire.
    +1. The Wire
    I really should watch it again. I remember being really into it, yet I've not seen it now in over a decade so it may not be as good as I recall it being.

    And yet I found time to watch the utterly ridiculous The Lost World series on Amazon Prime just weeks ago. Funny old world.
    I re-watched it 2 years ago...it was equally good even after all these years.

    I would say it is the perfect tv show, the 5 series are just the correct amount to give you the full picture of what a drugs empire looks across all aspects of every day life, without feeling like dragging it out for unnecessary episodes and seasons.
    I've watched it 3x. Superb. It is up there in the list of two or three drama box set series of all time imho.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 35,135

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    Not sure I would go that far. But I can certainly see Western nations putting the thumbs on the scales to ensure more "essential" industries aren't allowed to become Chinese monopolies e.g. loads of base chemicals production essential for so many things is now a near monopoly Chinese operation.
    I would go that far

    I reckon - I’ve had wine - coronavirus is going to kick off a new Cold War. There will be two competing worlds, western capitalism (more individualistic, but sobered by corona) centred around a somewhat humbled America, and Asian state-directed capitalism, centred around a disliked China, with very uncomfortable satellite states in Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Etc.

    The West is sufficient unto itself. It can feed itself and make what it needs.

    The breakdown between the two worlds will be very painful, but there won’t be all out war.

    Basically every hunch I’ve had about corona has come true, so far, so I’m backing this one, too, despite my ingestion of a bottle and a half of Rioja Gran Reserva Cune 2010
    I think we're heading for a new Cold War too, but I think the CCP will be more isolated than that. Russia will be in a very uncomfortable position and may end up turning towards the West sooner rather than later.
    Russian patriotism is too hardwired into hating the West. Then *need* the West as the enemy.
    I don't think it's fundamentally different to the classic intra-European rivalries, which we've largely been able to transcend.
    We have? ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 47,127

    30,000 - 40,000 seems perfectly believable. They had this thing run wild and unrestricted for probably 3 months, in a densely populated city of 11 million, while at the peak had 10 of millions of people across China travelling all over the country for New Year.

    They had to build 16 extra "hospitals" for just Wuhan.
    Yet this has spread across the whole world in a matter of weeks - but never really left Hubei Province as far as anyone can tell.

    I don't understand why that is, given the lockdown came relatively late in China.
    It makes sense if the Chinese numbers are simply made up.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022
    Regional quarantines are okay — as long as you get the tanks in place before anyone realises what's about to happen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,561
    edited March 28

    kle4 said:

    eadric said:

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    How? Is this really going to be the last straw?

    In global relations I tend to ask myself - what is the easiest route for nation's to take, even if it means longer term pain?
    Revisiting the Huawei decision looks a rather easy action to take now.
    Sure, but China's not going to be much hurt by that, presumably plenty of other takers out there, so is something coordinated, a change in outlook from the West on a wide range of things, really going to occur?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited March 28
    RobD said:

    30,000 - 40,000 seems perfectly believable. They had this thing run wild and unrestricted for probably 3 months, in a densely populated city of 11 million, while at the peak had 10 of millions of people across China travelling all over the country for New Year.

    They had to build 16 extra "hospitals" for just Wuhan.
    Yet this has spread across the whole world in a matter of weeks - but never really left Hubei Province as far as anyone can tell.

    I don't understand why that is, given the lockdown came relatively late in China.
    It makes sense if the Chinese numbers are simply made up.
    I don't think the demographic profiles are looking unrealistic, in terms of age mortality rates of those admitted to hospitals etc. But I think they just divided the numbers by some factor.

    e.g. We know that the rate of hospitalization is twice the models built on the Chinese data.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,868

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    Not sure I would go that far. But I can certainly see Western nations putting the thumbs on the scales to ensure more "essential" industries aren't allowed to become Chinese monopolies e.g. loads of base chemicals production essential for so many things is now a near monopoly Chinese operation.
    I would go that far

    I reckon - I’ve had wine - coronavirus is going to kick off a new Cold War. There will be two competing worlds, western capitalism (more individualistic, but sobered by corona) centred around a somewhat humbled America, and Asian state-directed capitalism, centred around a disliked China, with very uncomfortable satellite states in Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Etc.

    The West is sufficient unto itself. It can feed itself and make what it needs.

    The breakdown between the two worlds will be very painful, but there won’t be all out war.

    Basically every hunch I’ve had about corona has come true, so far, so I’m backing this one, too, despite my ingestion of a bottle and a half of Rioja Gran Reserva Cune 2010
    I think we're heading for a new Cold War too, but I think the CCP will be more isolated than that. Russia will be in a very uncomfortable position and may end up turning towards the West sooner rather than later.
    Russian patriotism is too hardwired into hating the West. Then *need* the West as the enemy.
    I don't think it's fundamentally different to the classic intra-European rivalries, which we've largely been able to transcend.
    You haven't met the current generation of Russians - essentially they have a Weimar level of belief that the West has worked to destroy Russia every single minute since 1919. The end of the cold war was simply the Russian low point. This is what Putin and Co. live on.

    We are The Enemy.

    To find similar things in Europe - maybe the Greater Hungarian types? "What was, will be again".....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,649
    Blame foreigners. The oldest trick in the book.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,959

    Anyone know where I could find a table to COVID cases per capita for countries and deaths per capita?

    Also are Germany testing their deceased who may have died from other causes for the virus? I've heard some say they are not which could explain difference of their data to ours, while others say they are?

    Show me a genuine source that says they aren't rather than just a rumour.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 35,135
    RobD said:

    30,000 - 40,000 seems perfectly believable. They had this thing run wild and unrestricted for probably 3 months, in a densely populated city of 11 million, while at the peak had 10 of millions of people across China travelling all over the country for New Year.

    They had to build 16 extra "hospitals" for just Wuhan.
    Yet this has spread across the whole world in a matter of weeks - but never really left Hubei Province as far as anyone can tell.

    I don't understand why that is, given the lockdown came relatively late in China.
    It makes sense if the Chinese numbers are simply made up.
    If the Chinese numbers were made up there'd be evidence of that. And epidemics happening elsewhere like they are in the rest of the world now.

    I find it plausible the numbers are worse in Hubei than the Chinese claim - its easy to mask one bad number with a less bad one. Its hard to mask an epidemic as nothing though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,561
    RobD said:

    30,000 - 40,000 seems perfectly believable. They had this thing run wild and unrestricted for probably 3 months, in a densely populated city of 11 million, while at the peak had 10 of millions of people across China travelling all over the country for New Year.

    They had to build 16 extra "hospitals" for just Wuhan.
    Yet this has spread across the whole world in a matter of weeks - but never really left Hubei Province as far as anyone can tell.

    I don't understand why that is, given the lockdown came relatively late in China.
    It makes sense if the Chinese numbers are simply made up.
    It feels like it must be so. But could even they cover it up effectively? There's clearly plenty of doubt, and they are never going to admit it even if caught red handed, but enough to persuade internationally?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 35,135
    eristdoof said:

    Anyone know where I could find a table to COVID cases per capita for countries and deaths per capita?

    Also are Germany testing their deceased who may have died from other causes for the virus? I've heard some say they are not which could explain difference of their data to ours, while others say they are?

    Show me a genuine source that says they aren't rather than just a rumour.
    I don't have one that's why I asked.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,959

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    The virus will not kill millions. Except maybe in third world countries like Iran.
    So you are admitting this virus could well kill millions in the third world.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited March 28
    If we want to follow the South Korea model, we all better be prepared for the government to be able to track the location of every single citizen, every transaction you make, every time you use public transport.

    Doing a load of tests efficiently only gets you so far, you have to contact trace and force those who can into contact with an infected person into isolation.

    For that you need big brother tech and stern punishment if you fall out of line.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 2,959

    eristdoof said:

    Anyone know where I could find a table to COVID cases per capita for countries and deaths per capita?

    Also are Germany testing their deceased who may have died from other causes for the virus? I've heard some say they are not which could explain difference of their data to ours, while others say they are?

    Show me a genuine source that says they aren't rather than just a rumour.
    I don't have one that's why I asked.
    Yes, I realsied that. It was a comment to the whole of PB.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,561
    By the by, to pass the time I've been reading The Accursed Kings series by Maurice Druon. Interesting and breezy reads - the French aristocracy was crazy in the 14th Century!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 35,135
    eristdoof said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    The virus will not kill millions. Except maybe in third world countries like Iran.
    So you are admitting this virus could well kill millions in the third world.
    "Admitting"?

    I suspect it could yes. Lots of stuff kills millions in the third world. Hence why I specifically mentioned the third world.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,868

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    The virus will not kill millions. Except maybe in third world countries like Iran.
    wtf
    Total deaths to date are 29k with thoughts we may be entering the peak in Europe. I don't see it getting to millions.
    Africa?
    I think Africa counts as "third world" as per my caveat.
    I saw no caveat.

    The nasty truth is that few will care when millions die in Africa - oh, there will be some aid sent, some agonising TV perhaps. But they will die and the rulers of the countries in question will blame the West and buy new Mercedes.

    I would send them aid. A half ton of tungsten at Mach 20 would be a start. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,382
    Municipality of Alzano Lombardo (province of Bergamo)

    Deaths in 2017: 150
    Deaths in 2018: 130
    Deaths in January 2019: 12
    Deaths in February 2019: 17
    Deaths in March 2019: 9

    According to the mayor, deaths registered from 23 February to 25 March 2020: 100
    Deaths registered in the Coronavirus' death toll from Alzano: 24 (they are the ones with a positive test)

    Mayor of Bergamo said they had 446 deaths from 1 to 24th March. The average of the last decade was 98.
    The Covid death toll is 136 for Bergamo city.

    According to local media there is a similar pattern in Bergamo and Brescia area.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    eadric said:

    If we want to follow the South Korea model, we all better be prepared for the government to be able to track the location of every single citizen, every transaction you make, every time you use public transport.

    AND WEAR MASKS
    The very least the west can do is force cultural change to make people who feel ill to wear a mask.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 982

    Anyone know where I could find a table to COVID cases per capita for countries and deaths per capita?

    Also are Germany testing their deceased who may have died from other causes for the virus? I've heard some say they are not which could explain difference of their data to ours, while others say they are?

    People don't get tested postmortem in Germany when they died of something else, so far as I know. There's a lot of pre-mortem testing so you don't have to do much postmortem, if you see what I mean. In any case I would be surprised if such a high percentage of UK Covid-19 deaths only tested positive postmortem that it could explain much of the difference.

    I guess there are more Covid-19 deaths in the UK mainly because there are more people in the UK who have been infected for long enough to die.
    And there are more confirmed cases in Germany mainly because a higher proportion of infected people have been tested in Germany.
    The mortality rate will probably end up being pretty similar, assuming enough testing is ever done to figure out what the mortality rate actually was.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,028
    eristdoof said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    The virus will not kill millions. Except maybe in third world countries like Iran.
    So you are admitting this virus could well kill millions in the third world.
    Never mind the language, China's position in the world has changed. Who will ever believe them again? Who will ever trust their business to them again? Who will trade with them again (this more difficult 'cos some numb nuts will)?
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,028
    kamski said:

    Anyone know where I could find a table to COVID cases per capita for countries and deaths per capita?

    Also are Germany testing their deceased who may have died from other causes for the virus? I've heard some say they are not which could explain difference of their data to ours, while others say they are?

    People don't get tested postmortem in Germany when they died of something else, so far as I know. There's a lot of pre-mortem testing so you don't have to do much postmortem, if you see what I mean. In any case I would be surprised if such a high percentage of UK Covid-19 deaths only tested positive postmortem that it could explain much of the difference.

    I guess there are more Covid-19 deaths in the UK mainly because there are more people in the UK who have been infected for long enough to die.
    And there are more confirmed cases in Germany mainly because a higher proportion of infected people have been tested in Germany.
    The mortality rate will probably end up being pretty similar, assuming enough testing is ever done to figure out what the mortality rate actually was.
    Stats mean nothing unless they are like with like.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,007

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    Not sure I would go that far. But I can certainly see Western nations putting the thumbs on the scales to ensure more "essential" industries aren't allowed to become Chinese monopolies e.g. loads of base chemicals production essential for so many things is now a near monopoly Chinese operation.
    I would go that far

    I reckon - I’ve had wine - coronavirus is going to kick off a new Cold War. There will be two competing worlds, western capitalism (more individualistic, but sobered by corona) centred around a somewhat humbled America, and Asian state-directed capitalism, centred around a disliked China, with very uncomfortable satellite states in Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Etc.

    The West is sufficient unto itself. It can feed itself and make what it needs.

    The breakdown between the two worlds will be very painful, but there won’t be all out war.

    Basically every hunch I’ve had about corona has come true, so far, so I’m backing this one, too, despite my ingestion of a bottle and a half of Rioja Gran Reserva Cune 2010
    I think we're heading for a new Cold War too, but I think the CCP will be more isolated than that. Russia will be in a very uncomfortable position and may end up turning towards the West sooner rather than later.
    Russian patriotism is too hardwired into hating the West. Then *need* the West as the enemy.
    I don't think it's fundamentally different to the classic intra-European rivalries, which we've largely been able to transcend.
    You haven't met the current generation of Russians - essentially they have a Weimar level of belief that the West has worked to destroy Russia every single minute since 1919. The end of the cold war was simply the Russian low point. This is what Putin and Co. live on.

    We are The Enemy.

    To find similar things in Europe - maybe the Greater Hungarian types? "What was, will be again".....
    Yes I have. I know many personally and speak Russian. I think a better parallel is with Brexiteers, actually.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,079

    If we want to follow the South Korea model, we all better be prepared for the government to be able to track the location of every single citizen, every transaction you make, every time you use public transport.

    Doing a load of tests efficiently only gets you so far, you have to contact trace and force those who can into contact with an infected person into isolation.

    For that you need big brother tech and stern punishment if you fall out of line.

    IIUC SK has a tracking app for *infected* people, I don't think they're forcibly tracking every single citizen???
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    China also contributed to the shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE) desperately needed by Britain's doctors, nurses and other health professionals. At the height of the epidemic in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province, Chinese leaders commandeered vast amounts of PPE, made in factories across China and destined for export.

    UK safety equipment firm JSP had its two factories in China 'requisitioned by the government to make disposable RPE [respiratory protection equipment] for Chinese government agencies', according to a letter its chief executive Mark Johnstone sent to customers on February 3.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163767/Downing-Street-says-China-faces-reckoning-coronavirus.html
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 21,512
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    TGOHF666 said:
    It seems this was briefed by Downing Street. Normally you would spin something like this to deflect attention, but as far as I know the government is basking in positives at the moment.
    I'm sure the Chinese government have lied, but why raise it now in a very non specific but aggressive way?

    Combined with the UK governments own lie yesterday when it pretended it was excluded from the EU procurement programme through an admin error, the claims made by Trump that Johnson was begging for ventilators, and now Johnson's letter, I'm getting a bad feeling that the government knows that things are worse than they are letting on.

    I hope not. ..
    I suspect they're guarding themselves against the argument that China cracked the virus by taking tough action, while the British government vacillated and now face thousands of deaths.
    Well there is the small issue of because China lied about the numbers, the original models that the UK used them to measure their response were horseshit....it was only when the data from Italy started to be added in that it was clear this was a totally different level of shitstorm.
    I don't buy that excuse.

    The original report of the first 41 cases cited 31% needing ICU on 24th Jan, published in the Lancet. Anyone who didn't realise that a pandemic means a lot of ventilators wasn't paying attention.

    Nah. If you look at the minutes of those meetings, China didn't even admit there was any human to human transmission until 20th January and based on the numbers they were providing the CFR was calculated at 2.1%.

    China had to have known there was human to human transmission as far back as the beginning of the year given the thing had been in circulation since November. That makes a huge difference to how authorities elsewhere react.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 35,135

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    The virus will not kill millions. Except maybe in third world countries like Iran.
    wtf
    Total deaths to date are 29k with thoughts we may be entering the peak in Europe. I don't see it getting to millions.
    Africa?
    I think Africa counts as "third world" as per my caveat.
    I saw no caveat.

    The nasty truth is that few will care when millions die in Africa - oh, there will be some aid sent, some agonising TV perhaps. But they will die and the rulers of the countries in question will blame the West and buy new Mercedes.

    I would send them aid. A half ton of tungsten at Mach 20 would be a start. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_bombardment
    I wrote "The virus will not kill millions. Except maybe in third world countries like Iran."

    Africa is third world.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited March 28

    If we want to follow the South Korea model, we all better be prepared for the government to be able to track the location of every single citizen, every transaction you make, every time you use public transport.

    Doing a load of tests efficiently only gets you so far, you have to contact trace and force those who can into contact with an infected person into isolation.

    For that you need big brother tech and stern punishment if you fall out of line.

    IIUC SK has a tracking app for *infected* people, I don't think they're forcibly tracking every single citizen???
    I wasn't saying SK does what China does and spying on all its citizens all of the time.

    But, it is much more than the app. They passed a law after the SARS outbreak which gave them these wide ranging snooping powers could be turned on under these emergency circumstances.

    They have the right to track anybody and also find all the individuals you came into contact with via their cellphone location data, transactions details, CCTV, etc.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,007
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    30,000 - 40,000 seems perfectly believable. They had this thing run wild and unrestricted for probably 3 months, in a densely populated city of 11 million, while at the peak had 10 of millions of people across China travelling all over the country for New Year.

    They had to build 16 extra "hospitals" for just Wuhan.
    Yet this has spread across the whole world in a matter of weeks - but never really left Hubei Province as far as anyone can tell.

    I don't understand why that is, given the lockdown came relatively late in China.
    It makes sense if the Chinese numbers are simply made up.
    It feels like it must be so. But could even they cover it up effectively? There's clearly plenty of doubt, and they are never going to admit it even if caught red handed, but enough to persuade internationally?
    In retrospect, some of Bruce Aylward of the WHO's comments about the effectiveness of China's response have the air of credulous communist sympathisers visiting the USSR: "I have seen the future, and it works".
  • kamskikamski Posts: 982
    alterego said:

    kamski said:

    Anyone know where I could find a table to COVID cases per capita for countries and deaths per capita?

    Also are Germany testing their deceased who may have died from other causes for the virus? I've heard some say they are not which could explain difference of their data to ours, while others say they are?

    People don't get tested postmortem in Germany when they died of something else, so far as I know. There's a lot of pre-mortem testing so you don't have to do much postmortem, if you see what I mean. In any case I would be surprised if such a high percentage of UK Covid-19 deaths only tested positive postmortem that it could explain much of the difference.

    I guess there are more Covid-19 deaths in the UK mainly because there are more people in the UK who have been infected for long enough to die.
    And there are more confirmed cases in Germany mainly because a higher proportion of infected people have been tested in Germany.
    The mortality rate will probably end up being pretty similar, assuming enough testing is ever done to figure out what the mortality rate actually was.
    Stats mean nothing unless they are like with like.
    I'm not sure what that comment adds. It would be more useful to answer questions like:
    How many of the UK Covid-19 deaths were only tested postmortem?
    Are people in the UK who die of something else routinely tested for Covid-19?

    That is if you want to have some idea of whether differences in postmortem testing could explain the difference in apparent mortality rates between the UK and the many countries like Germany that have a much lower apparent rate.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,868

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    30,000 - 40,000 seems perfectly believable. They had this thing run wild and unrestricted for probably 3 months, in a densely populated city of 11 million, while at the peak had 10 of millions of people across China travelling all over the country for New Year.

    They had to build 16 extra "hospitals" for just Wuhan.
    Yet this has spread across the whole world in a matter of weeks - but never really left Hubei Province as far as anyone can tell.

    I don't understand why that is, given the lockdown came relatively late in China.
    It makes sense if the Chinese numbers are simply made up.
    It feels like it must be so. But could even they cover it up effectively? There's clearly plenty of doubt, and they are never going to admit it even if caught red handed, but enough to persuade internationally?
    In retrospect, some of Bruce Aylward of the WHO's comments about the effectiveness of China's response have the air of credulous communist sympathisers visiting the USSR: "I have seen the future, and it works".
    There is no Ukranian Famine.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 46,935
    edited March 28
    I am sure Jezza will still be arguing that deaths in China were still 3,000...and whatever nonsense Russia claim is there definitely smaller than the West rate.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 4,868

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    He’s got his numbers wrong. This virus will kill millions and cost trillions. Literally.

    Beijing is fucked. The West will turn away.
    Not sure I would go that far. But I can certainly see Western nations putting the thumbs on the scales to ensure more "essential" industries aren't allowed to become Chinese monopolies e.g. loads of base chemicals production essential for so many things is now a near monopoly Chinese operation.
    I would go that far

    I reckon - I’ve had wine - coronavirus is going to kick off a new Cold War. There will be two competing worlds, western capitalism (more individualistic, but sobered by corona) centred around a somewhat humbled America, and Asian state-directed capitalism, centred around a disliked China, with very uncomfortable satellite states in Japan, Korea, Taiwan. Etc.

    The West is sufficient unto itself. It can feed itself and make what it needs.

    The breakdown between the two worlds will be very painful, but there won’t be all out war.

    Basically every hunch I’ve had about corona has come true, so far, so I’m backing this one, too, despite my ingestion of a bottle and a half of Rioja Gran Reserva Cune 2010
    I think we're heading for a new Cold War too, but I think the CCP will be more isolated than that. Russia will be in a very uncomfortable position and may end up turning towards the West sooner rather than later.
    Russian patriotism is too hardwired into hating the West. Then *need* the West as the enemy.
    I don't think it's fundamentally different to the classic intra-European rivalries, which we've largely been able to transcend.
    You haven't met the current generation of Russians - essentially they have a Weimar level of belief that the West has worked to destroy Russia every single minute since 1919. The end of the cold war was simply the Russian low point. This is what Putin and Co. live on.

    We are The Enemy.

    To find similar things in Europe - maybe the Greater Hungarian types? "What was, will be again".....
    Yes I have. I know many personally and speak Russian. I think a better parallel is with Brexiteers, actually.
    A childish comment. The Weimar comparison for Russia is there for a reason - this is what the average Russian has been taught for generations.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 33,776

    I am sure Jezza will still be arguing that deaths in China were still 3,000...and whatever nonsense Russia claim is there definitely smaller than the West rate.

    There is no Ukranian Famine.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,067
    edited March 28
    Somethings interlinking observations:

    1) You don't weld people into their apartments if this virus isn't awful. We knew the Chinese took the most awesome set of response ever seen in the face of a virus yet our SAGE group didn't realise this was bad?
    2) the SAGE group will be made up of hawks and doves. Ferguson was a hawk. He was warning from the 20th January that he was very worried. Perhaps the rest of the group didn't yet agree by then.
    3) The original data from China, even if incorrect on an absolute scale, was roughly accurate on a proportional scale. So if the data was used it should not have cocked up any models so badly. I read the data as it came out contemporaneously and I was shocked by it.
    4) the WHO played down the seriousness for a long time. Advised and chastised those who were advocating the slowing down of movement out of China.
    5) the WHO sent delegates into China. Whilst a visiting delegation might struggle to estimate relative effects of the virus, surely the one thing they could do is estimate absolute effects, ie size of the population suffering, just by observation unless the Chinese tricked them.

    Based on the above, the Chinese lied about scale but individual groups did provide accurate data, the WHO were either complicit early doors or criminally negligent. Not all the SAGE group but a majority were asleep and/or naive.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 54,561

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    30,000 - 40,000 seems perfectly believable. They had this thing run wild and unrestricted for probably 3 months, in a densely populated city of 11 million, while at the peak had 10 of millions of people across China travelling all over the country for New Year.

    They had to build 16 extra "hospitals" for just Wuhan.
    Yet this has spread across the whole world in a matter of weeks - but never really left Hubei Province as far as anyone can tell.

    I don't understand why that is, given the lockdown came relatively late in China.
    It makes sense if the Chinese numbers are simply made up.
    It feels like it must be so. But could even they cover it up effectively? There's clearly plenty of doubt, and they are never going to admit it even if caught red handed, but enough to persuade internationally?
    In retrospect, some of Bruce Aylward of the WHO's comments about the effectiveness of China's response have the air of credulous communist sympathisers visiting the USSR: "I have seen the future, and it works".
    There is no Ukranian Famine.
    Phew! What a relief,it sounded dreadful.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,470
    The latest ploy by the orange lunatic is to try and pin the blame for the virus spread on New York which just happens to be a blue state . The Florida governor which happens to be a red state now supports NY being quarantined so we can see the outlines of the election campaign !

    Trump is now desperate to avoid any blame and his moronic base will be lapping this up .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,007
    nico67 said:

    The latest ploy by the orange lunatic is to try and pin the blame for the virus spread on New York which just happens to be a blue state . The Florida governor which happens to be a red state now supports NY being quarantined so we can see the outlines of the election campaign !

    Trump is now desperate to avoid any blame and his moronic base will be lapping this up .

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 5,255
    The DNC have to run Cuomo
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022

    eadric said:

    If we want to follow the South Korea model, we all better be prepared for the government to be able to track the location of every single citizen, every transaction you make, every time you use public transport.

    AND WEAR MASKS
    The very least the west can do is force cultural change to make people who feel ill to wear a mask.
    I hate the idea of everyone walking around in masks all the time. Is there another solution?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,079

    If we want to follow the South Korea model, we all better be prepared for the government to be able to track the location of every single citizen, every transaction you make, every time you use public transport.

    Doing a load of tests efficiently only gets you so far, you have to contact trace and force those who can into contact with an infected person into isolation.

    For that you need big brother tech and stern punishment if you fall out of line.

    IIUC SK has a tracking app for *infected* people, I don't think they're forcibly tracking every single citizen???
    I wasn't saying SK does what China does and spying on all its citizens all of the time.

    But, it is much more than the app. They passed a law after the SARS outbreak which gave them these wide ranging snooping powers could be turned on under these emergency circumstances.

    They have the right to track anybody and also find all the individuals you came into contact with via their cellphone location data, transactions details, CCTV, etc.
    Fair enough. Speaking as a privacy hawk, in this situation I'd be perfectly happy for the government to get mobile providers to give them the data of infected people, as long as it's only used for that purpose and ends when the crisis does.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 14,079
    Andy_JS said:


    I hate the idea of everyone walking around in masks all the time. Is there another solution?

    You can stay at home?
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 484
    HYUFD said:
    What's Burgon's point? Is it that China can massage the numbers better AND weld people into their homes, whilst we can't even massage the numbers for how many nurses we've swabbed?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022
    Oh my god, Burgon.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 14,649
    nico67 said:

    The latest ploy by the orange lunatic is to try and pin the blame for the virus spread on New York which just happens to be a blue state . The Florida governor which happens to be a red state now supports NY being quarantined so we can see the outlines of the election campaign !

    Trump is now desperate to avoid any blame and his moronic base will be lapping this up .

    It doesn’t end well for Trump, just ask Snake Plisken.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 33,007
    The US is now at almost 20,000 new cases for the day and 500 deaths.

    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/03/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 10,896

    The DNC have to run Cuomo

    He seems deeply impressive

    Cometh the hour cometh the man
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022
    "The etiquette of face-masks in Hong Kong

    Some locals accuse foreigners of sloppy hygiene"

    (£)

    https://www.economist.com/china/2020/03/28/the-etiquette-of-face-masks-in-hong-kong
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 6,022
    edited March 29
    Tom Tugendhat MP takes aim at China once again, this time over Taiwan.

  • TimTTimT Posts: 771

    kle4 said:

    welshowl said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Useless fact: I haven't watched any TV series that have been produced since the X Files in the 1990s, so maybe this is my big chance to catch up on what everyone says has been a golden age for TV dramas.

    The Wire.
    +1. The Wire
    I really should watch it again. I remember being really into it, yet I've not seen it now in over a decade so it may not be as good as I recall it being.

    And yet I found time to watch the utterly ridiculous The Lost World series on Amazon Prime just weeks ago. Funny old world.
    I re-watched it 2 years ago...it was equally good even after all these years.

    I would say it is the perfect tv show, the 5 series are just the correct amount to give you the full picture of what a drugs empire looks across all aspects of every day life, without feeling like dragging it out for unnecessary episodes and seasons.
    I've watched it 3x. Superb. It is up there in the list of two or three drama box set series of all time imho.
    Big new series on FX on Hulu here, not yet in the UK, is Devs. Stunningly haunting.
This discussion has been closed.