Following on from Cyclefree's recent header, and article on policing across the world in response to the virus.
Wherever we might draw the line, it sounds as though some places are well across it...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/world/australia/coronavirus-police-lockdowns.html ...But in other countries, enforcement has been much more aggressive and escalated into serious violence. In Kenya, officers are under investigation in multiple cases, including the death of a teenager shot while standing on a balcony during a dusk-to-dawn curfew. The police also used tear gas and batons on passengers at a ferry terminal and are being investigated in at least two other deaths, leading President Uhuru Kenyatta to say he regretted the violence.
In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte on Wednesday ordered the police and the military to shoot anyone who “causes commotion,” after 20 protesters were arrested as they demanded food during the country’s lockdown....
Thanks for all the responses. Still no idea what it was or whether linked somehow to C-virus but it sure as hell didn't feel like any normal cold.
Maybe I'll find out one day.
For most of March I experienced a very mild sniffly cold. It was a very unusual cold in that it was lacking the usual sore throat or temperature, and gave rise to only occasional sneezing. I have heard of others experiencing this too. Anyone else?
Thanks for all the responses. Still no idea what it was or whether linked somehow to C-virus but it sure as hell didn't feel like any normal cold.
Maybe I'll find out one day.
Indeed. It certainly wasn't a cold but it definitely wasn't flu either (it felt somewhat flu-like in the first 2-3 days but then moved away from what you would think of as a classic influenza bug)
It was something different... but again we have to assume it wasn't COVID-19-related and practice all the social distancing measures especially anyone that still hasn't properly recovered.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The response to this situation, both medical and economic has to be dynamic. That is the key - when you change the inputs to a non-linear system, the results will not be predictable at the micro level.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
If the banks dont want to give such loans, open them up to other businesses and individuals. I am very happy to selectively lend to a basket of businesses at 30% pa with a govt guarantee of getting 80% back if they default. Maybe we could band together and call them mutual societies or building societies perhaps.
The building societies aren't keen for the same reason. The remaining mutuals included. For the same reason....
Scene in a committee room at the House of Commons in 2022 -
"So you made x amount from selling loans that you knew were going to go bad. Why did you rip the people of this country off?"
The answer "You told me to" will not be a win....
Lets dispel this notion that the banks are worried about the loans being commercial.
Look at the maths, they are offering 30% pa, director personal guarantee and get 80% back from govt if it goes wrong.
Assume 50% of businesses applying go bust, and 20% of the directors go bankrupt. Those seem on the extremely conservative but just about plausible side?
So 90% of the time (50% from businesses, and 40% from guarantors), the bank gets back 1.3 - thats 1.17
10% of the time they get back 0.8 - thats 0.08
They would be making 25% average margin based on 50% businesses and 20% directors going bust. It is pure greed and extortion, nothing to do with needing to lend at commercial rates.
The directors are far better off applying for half a dozen personal credit cards from the same banks and play balance transfer games to get their loans.
Change the maths and it can be very differently.
There's quite possible a moral hazard issue in play here for the banks. With businesses no longer needing to pay salaries (due to the furlough scheme) the pressure to take a loan has rightly been reduced. The only ones likely to apply for the loans are those who need it - and may therefore go bust.
One horrifying fact many people don't realise is that actually 90% of new businesses go bust so what if instead of 50% going bust you change the maths to 90% of those taking loans go bust? Not very attractive then!
That is true, but most firms that know they are going to go bust during this crisis wont bother with the loans. They will just go bust and sadly there are lots of those.
Going down the loans route is for companies who think they can survive but dont have the cash flow. Id be quite surprised if 50% of them go bust, let alone 90%.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The response to this situation, both medical and economic has to be dynamic. That is the key - when you change the inputs to a non-linear system, the results will not be predictable at the micro level.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
If the banks dont want to give such loans, open them up to other businesses and individuals. I am very happy to selectively lend to a basket of businesses at 30% pa with a govt guarantee of getting 80% back if they default. Maybe we could band together and call them mutual societies or building societies perhaps.
The building societies aren't keen for the same reason. The remaining mutuals included. For the same reason....
Scene in a committee room at the House of Commons in 2022 -
"So you made x amount from selling loans that you knew were going to go bad. Why did you rip the people of this country off?"
The answer "You told me to" will not be a win....
Lets dispel this notion that the banks are worried about the loans being commercial.
Look at the maths, they are offering 30% pa, director personal guarantee and get 80% back from govt if it goes wrong.
Assume 50% of businesses applying go bust, and 20% of the directors go bankrupt. Those seem on the extremely conservative but just about plausible side?
So 90% of the time (50% from businesses, and 40% from guarantors), the bank gets back 1.3 - thats 1.17
10% of the time they get back 0.8 - thats 0.08
They would be making 25% average margin based on 50% businesses and 20% directors going bust. It is pure greed and extortion, nothing to do with needing to lend at commercial rates.
The directors are far better off applying for half a dozen personal credit cards from the same banks and play balance transfer games to get their loans.
Change the maths and it can be very differently.
There's quite possible a moral hazard issue in play here for the banks. With businesses no longer needing to pay salaries (due to the furlough scheme) the pressure to take a loan has rightly been reduced. The only ones likely to apply for the loans are those who need it - and may therefore go bust.
One horrifying fact many people don't realise is that actually 90% of new businesses go bust so what if instead of 50% going bust you change the maths to 90% of those taking loans go bust? Not very attractive then!
That is true, but most firms that know they are going to go bust during this crisis wont bother with the loans. They will just go bust and sadly there are lots of those.
Going down the loans route is for companies who think they can survive but dont have the cash flow. Id be quite surprised if 50% of them go bust, let alone 90%.
I wouldn't rule it out. A lot of people will not be wanting to see their life's work go down due to the virus and will be wishfully thinking this is a v-shape and they will survive. I would expect they will do whatever they can to stay afloat and it won't take much to push them over the edge - especially if there's a major downturn rather than a v-shape after this.
There is a very plausible chance much, much more than 50% will go bust. Especially given those that don't need loans won't be taking them.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
Why would I be upset? In any case the average house price in the south is over £250 000 so this is only focused on very small businesses correctly
Why would you be upset? Because (a) you proclaimed the brilliance of the scheme as previously (not) implemented by the banks and (b) you seem to almost be revelling in the spectacle of businesses going to the wall.
a) The scheme still stays as it is for all but the smallest businesses as taxpayers cannot pay grants without limit and nor can banks provide loans without guarantees.
"No proof coronavirus can be spread while shopping, says leading German virologist Initial findings suggest virus may be less easily transmitted than thought
Coronavirus has not been spread by shopping or going to the hairdresser, a leading virologist has said after studying a hotspot for the virus. Prof Hendrik Streeck, leading the response in one of Germany's worst hit regions, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people believe."
It does sound encouraging in that it is not that easy to transmit the virus other than by direct person-to-person contact (meaning that confined spaces - airplanes / cruise liners / parties) are the best means. It's quite good since it will help us work out what can be opened and how - in other words, what degree of social distancing is required moving forward to minimise ongoing transmission. It certainly suggests that pubs / clubs might be amongst the last places to re-open.
I would not be at all surprised if it does turn out that transmission via touching surfaces is a very minor part of the infectious route. I've thought that from the start, simply because if that were not the case, I can't see how contact-tracing would have worked so well in the early days. Those early unknowingly infected people would have continued with their normal life, including going shopping, using cash machines etc, but there didn't seem to be any localised hotspots associated with them which couldn't be traced back to people they'd been in more close contact with.
Still, since we don't know for sure, for the moment we should continue to play safe.
With the speculation about the Stereophonics concerts and Cheltenham as hot spots for CV I have to say I am hugely relived I made the decision not to go to the Roxy Music concert on 13th March.
On my one man mission to convert people to watching Babylon Berlin, you can catch Bryan Ferry doing a turn as a 20s style crooner in series one (I think he was involved in some of the excellent soundtrack also).
Have to confess and say I risked all and saw him live on 5th March. I think by 13th it was more obvious where we were going with this. He was very good. Hope Richard gets another chance.
The country is clearly on a "war footing" mode where they'll give their support to the government because... well what's the alternative?
This support will melt away as quickly as snow in June once the crisis is over IMO.
Agreed. I'm sure the tory rating will still be high but even if they respond as well as humanly possible things will have gone wrong or not perfectly and people will hit them on that.
Thanks, people. That's another two weeks of lockdown then.
We'll keep doing it unil you get it right.
It's your time you're wasting...
At the risk of breaking the blog, I'll ask: is there a chance this is a SE thing?
Very very quiet around my Midlands patch. A tweet in reply to O'hara's tweet said it was v quiet in E Yorkshire.
Extremely quiet in my part of Newcastle too.
I don't think car or foot traffic round my neighbourhood in Huddersfield has changed in any noticeable way since day 1.
As I said yesterday I am in rural Lincolnshire and sadly I am seeing a lot more non-lorry traffic on the roads this week compared to last. The morning and evening commute hours are markedly quieter still but people still seem to be out and about in large numbers the rest of the day.
Sadly the same on the roads here in metropolitan Dorset - and I'm even seeing people waiting at bus stops again. In the last two days I have seen a marked increase whilst walking the dog - but it will be interesting to see if it is the same today. Yesterday and wednesday: beautiful weather. Today; cloudy and dull...
Similar story here in Leamington.
How much of that is a natural effect of time passing. I've not been to the supermarket for two weeks now, but will probably do a shop this afternoon as stock levels in my establishment are getting a bit low. Once I've shopped, that will be it for another fortnight or so.
I work in engineering (at the sharp end, actually making stuff). My employer has closed for the duration, but I'm still dealing with some suppliers and sub contractors. Many of them are gradually shutting up shop, mainly because the supply chains are gradually collapsing, so if anything I'd expect to roads to be getting quieter.
We're in a fairly strong cash position compared to usual, but I think we'll only last until around June even with the government's furlongh money paying wages - like many businesses, we have a lot of other costs which aren't going away just because we've stopped working, but our income has stopped completely.
One thing the government could and should do is suspend business rates for all businesses - we may be able to reach an accommodation with our landlord (it's not like anyone else will be wanting to rent our site right now), but business rates represent a good chunk of our totally unavoidable costs which are steadily eating through our cash reserves.
With the speculation about the Stereophonics concerts and Cheltenham as hot spots for CV I have to say I am hugely relived I made the decision not to go to the Roxy Music concert on 13th March.
On my one man mission to convert people to watching Babylon Berlin, you can catch Bryan Ferry doing a turn as a 20s style crooner in series one (I think he was involved in some of the excellent soundtrack also).
Have to confess and say I risked all and saw him live on 5th March. I think by 13th it was more obvious where we were going with this. He was very good. Hope Richard gets another chance.
Yep to be fair I think I would probably have gone on the 5th. My own lack of awareness perhaps but it wasn't until the following week I really started to take this stuff seriously.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
Why would I be upset? In any case the average house price in the south is over £250 000 so this is only focused on very small businesses correctly
Why would you be upset? Because (a) you proclaimed the brilliance of the scheme as previously (not) implemented by the banks and (b) you seem to almost be revelling in the spectacle of businesses going to the wall.
a) The scheme still stays as it is for all but the smallest businesses as taxpayers cannot pay grants without limit and nor can banks provide loans without guarantees.
b) Outrageous accusation with no evidence
You keep posting the same nonsense. "Banks cannot provide loans without guarantees". The government are proving the guarantee. Thats the whole point. And the amount? An initial £330bn with as much as required. Thats literally what Sunak said.
All great, particularly The Marriage of Figaro. I’m a fan of La Boheme as well, but might give it a miss while this is on...
In case you haven't picked this up, Garsington are providing a free stream of their Marriage of Figaro. I haven't yet watched it, but the production got excellent reviews and I think it will be a treat:
"No proof coronavirus can be spread while shopping, says leading German virologist Initial findings suggest virus may be less easily transmitted than thought
Coronavirus has not been spread by shopping or going to the hairdresser, a leading virologist has said after studying a hotspot for the virus. Prof Hendrik Streeck, leading the response in one of Germany's worst hit regions, said Covid-19 might not be spread as easily as people believe."
It does sound encouraging in that it is not that easy to transmit the virus other than by direct person-to-person contact (meaning that confined spaces - airplanes / cruise liners / parties) are the best means. It's quite good since it will help us work out what can be opened and how - in other words, what degree of social distancing is required moving forward to minimise ongoing transmission. It certainly suggests that pubs / clubs might be amongst the last places to re-open.
I would not be at all surprised if it does turn out that transmission via touching surfaces is a very minor part of the infectious route. I've thought that from the start, simply because if that were not the case, I can't see how contact-tracing would have worked so well in the early days. Those early unknowingly infected people would have continued with their normal life, including going shopping, using cash machines etc, but there didn't seem to be any localised hotspots associated with them which couldn't be traced back to people they'd been in more close contact with.
Still, since we don't know for sure, for the moment we should continue to play safe.
Makes a lot of sense - both the likely minimal impact of transmission but also being cautious for the present. It does suggest that the electronic contact tracing could be a fantastic way of mitigating the size of future outbreaks though - would be a straightforward way of cutting down asymptomatic infection without destroying the economy since most outbreaks would be relatively localised.
It does sound encouraging in that it is not that easy to transmit the virus other than by direct person-to-person contact (meaning that confined spaces - airplanes / cruise liners / parties) are the best means. It's quite good since it will help us work out what can be opened and how - in other words, what degree of social distancing is required moving forward to minimise ongoing transmission. It certainly suggests that pubs / clubs might be amongst the last places to re-open.
Right, thanks. That is good news. Re pubs -
In autumn and winter I drink bitter, in spring and summer, lager, this is a fixed habit of mine, part of the ritual of the year as it changes. I like that sort of thing.
So, point is, I do not expect my next pint to be a Stella or a Bud. I am pretty sure it will be something along the lines of "Bourne Valley Old Codge & Wallop".
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
Why would I be upset? In any case the average house price in the south is over £250 000 so this is only focused on very small businesses correctly
Why would you be upset? Because (a) you proclaimed the brilliance of the scheme as previously (not) implemented by the banks and (b) you seem to almost be revelling in the spectacle of businesses going to the wall.
a) The scheme still stays as it is for all but the smallest businesses as taxpayers cannot pay grants without limit and nor can banks provide loans without guarantees.
b) Outrageous accusation with no evidence
You do Sunak a big disservice, he has created a new loans scheme for companies with an annual turnover 45m-500m and for many smaller businesses, as well as removing the guarantee, the interest rate will drop to 0% for 12 months, instead of the banks commercial/extortionate rates.
They are significant and welcome changes to a scheme that was not working.
With the speculation about the Stereophonics concerts and Cheltenham as hot spots for CV I have to say I am hugely relived I made the decision not to go to the Roxy Music concert on 13th March.
On my one man mission to convert people to watching Babylon Berlin, you can catch Bryan Ferry doing a turn as a 20s style crooner in series one (I think he was involved in some of the excellent soundtrack also).
Have to confess and say I risked all and saw him live on 5th March. I think by 13th it was more obvious where we were going with this. He was very good. Hope Richard gets another chance.
Yep to be fair I think I would probably have gone on the 5th. My own lack of awareness perhaps but it wasn't until the following week I really started to take this stuff seriously.
As he's 75 this year let's hope he's spending his time locked away song writing, and keeping away from the super-models.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
I'm on furlough from tonight, which will be a big financial hit but a nice two months off.
If the weather stays nice it's actually pretty good where I live because I can get straight up the hills without seeing anybody. Plenty of dog walking coming up!
FPT - @Richard_Nabavi must be the only person on the planet who actually likes Opera!
Er, no. I adore it. Mozart, Puccini, Bizet, Verdi, Rossini - superb.
My favourite bits:-
1. The “Verrano a te sull” aure” duet in Lucia Di Lamermoor. 2. Bizet’s Carmen - any of it. See the Francesco Rosi film of it set in and around Seville for the full Spanish experience. 3. Mozart’s Don Giovanni, The Marriage of Figaro and Cosi Fan Tutte: all of them superb. But the end of the first Act of Marriage of Figaro when each of the characters come on stage in turn and all of them are singing in one glorious melding of voices is just outstanding. 4. “Va Pensiero” - the chorus of the Hebrew slaves in Nabucco. This - https://youtu.be/2VejTwFjwVI - is a spine-tingling version. 5. Tosca - “E lucevan le stelle” from Tosca - though the whole opera is amazing. 6. La Traviata.
And others which are not operas but which lift the spirits:-
7. The “dies irae” from Mozart’s Requiem. 8. This version of Verdi’s Requiem - https://youtu.be/6pVYB6IaiFc. Especially the “Libera me” at the end. 9. Hadyn’s Creation. 10. Handel’s Messiah.
That version of the Hebrew Slaves is outstanding. Again not opera but Mozart's Laudate Dominum is another sublime piece of music.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
The original message is fine? You think it's okay to consign Tory voters to death?
Wont be long before it will be compulsory everywhere regardless of the scientific evidence either way. Apple iMasks for $300, Versace masks for $2,000 on your high street - sorry Amazon - soon.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
Why would I be upset? In any case the average house price in the south is over £250 000 so this is only focused on very small businesses correctly
Why would you be upset? Because (a) you proclaimed the brilliance of the scheme as previously (not) implemented by the banks and (b) you seem to almost be revelling in the spectacle of businesses going to the wall.
a) The scheme still stays as it is for all but the smallest businesses as taxpayers cannot pay grants without limit and nor can banks provide loans without guarantees.
b) Outrageous accusation with no evidence
You keep posting the same nonsense. "Banks cannot provide loans without guarantees". The government are proving the guarantee. Thats the whole point. And the amount? An initial £330bn with as much as required. Thats literally what Sunak said.
The government guarantees are for 80% not 100% and to the lender not the borrower. The only change today is personal guarantees by company owners under £250 000 will not be allowed, which will be irrelevant for most company owners given £250 000 is below the average house price in the south and all but the smallest company owners will own property over that level
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
The original message is fine? You think it's okay to consign Tory voters to death?
That isn't the original message! Need to have another look. That is the manipulated message.
I'm sure you can be unlucky, but bearing in mind that even in normal life - with people continually talking face-to-face, being in confined spaces with others, probably not washing their hands very often, and not isolating themselves if they have symptoms - each case is estimated to produce only 2-3 others. If there were anything but a small probability of catching it while shopping, that figure would be a lot higher.
Yes. As per usual with me there is an almost clinical split between Mr Logic and Mr Loopy. They could just as well have different names, but I resist that for fairly obvious "Anthony Perkins" type reasons. And with this, shopping in the time of covid, the former character knows for an absolute fact that you are right and the risk is very very low.
FPT - I’m going to enjoy drinking as much as I can (consistent with being functional during the day and getting a decent sleep) during this crisis. I’ve ordered in some great wines and champagnes.
The hair shirt brigade / busybodies seem mainly interested in policing people who leave the house, policing that they properly clap according to approved doctrine on the doorsteps of their houses, and trying to shame them as to what they do inside their houses.
They can fuck off.
Who exactly are "policing that people clap according to the doctrine on their doorsteps". "Quasi-Stalinist" I believe you called it last night.
Certainly hasn't made any of the news outlets I've seen. Could it possibly all be in your fevered imagination?
It may not have made your news outlets but it is certainly happening. Personally I disagree with Casino and think the clap is a good thing, but it is sad to see on the local village facebook page this morning complaints about certain houses and certain streets not taking part. As with all social media it turns nasty rather quickly.
Fair enough, I was unaware of it.
Hardly sounds quasi-Stalinist though. Reading Casino Royale's post I assumed their were vigilantes dragging people from their houses and forcing them to clap for five minutes.
If the identification on social media of individual houses as dissing the nhs doesn't cause you disquiet it bloody well should. I would be utterly unamazed to learn of vandalistic reprisals.
If I got disquieted by everything that was said on social media I would never get out of bed in the morning.
So what is your solution? Ban people from showing their appreciation to the NHS because a few idiots might say nasty things about those that don't?
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
Memes where you take an original image or comic and then replace the words have been ubiquitous on social media for years. I don't think there's any attempt to pretend those were the original signs, given how obvious it is that the original sign was painted over in a different colour and that the writing is a font rather than handwriting.
All great, particularly The Marriage of Figaro. I’m a fan of La Boheme as well, but might give it a miss while this is on...
In case you haven't picked this up, Garsington are providing a free stream of their Marriage of Figaro. I haven't yet watched it, but the production got excellent reviews and I think it will be a treat:
Well of course there is still uncertainty, what do they want, to set their watch by it?
Damn viruses not keeping to a proper schedule. Was it too much to ask that it arrive in all european countries at the same so we could more easily track efficacy of responses?
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
The original message is fine? You think it's okay to consign Tory voters to death?
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
Why would I be upset? In any case the average house price in the south is over £250 000 so this is only focused on very small businesses correctly
Why would you be upset? Because (a) you proclaimed the brilliance of the scheme as previously (not) implemented by the banks and (b) you seem to almost be revelling in the spectacle of businesses going to the wall.
a) The scheme still stays as it is for all but the smallest businesses as taxpayers cannot pay grants without limit and nor can banks provide loans without guarantees.
b) Outrageous accusation with no evidence
You keep posting the same nonsense. "Banks cannot provide loans without guarantees". The government are proving the guarantee. Thats the whole point. And the amount? An initial £330bn with as much as required. Thats literally what Sunak said.
The government guarantees are for 80% not 100% and to the lender not the borrower. The only change today is personal guarantees by company owners under £250 000 will not be allowed, which will be irrelevant for most company owners given £250 000 is below the average house price in the south and all but the smallest company owners will own property over that level
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
Memes where you take an original image or comic and then replace the words have been ubiquitous on social media for years. I don't think there's any attempt to pretend those were the original signs, given how obvious it is that the original sign was painted over in a different colour and that the writing is a font rather than handwriting.
To save me the bother of checking, were you one of the people who were absolutely appalled by the Tory #FactCheck GE debate nonsense?
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
Why would I be upset? In any case the average house price in the south is over £250 000 so this is only focused on very small businesses correctly
Why would you be upset? Because (a) you proclaimed the brilliance of the scheme as previously (not) implemented by the banks and (b) you seem to almost be revelling in the spectacle of businesses going to the wall.
a) The scheme still stays as it is for all but the smallest businesses as taxpayers cannot pay grants without limit and nor can banks provide loans without guarantees.
b) Outrageous accusation with no evidence
You keep posting the same nonsense. "Banks cannot provide loans without guarantees". The government are proving the guarantee. Thats the whole point. And the amount? An initial £330bn with as much as required. Thats literally what Sunak said.
The government guarantees are for 80% not 100% and to the lender not the borrower. The only change today is personal guarantees by company owners under £250 000 will not be allowed, which will be irrelevant for most company owners given £250 000 is below the average house price in the south and all but the smallest company owners will own property over that level
Absolute drivel.
I hope a new poster emerges with that as their username.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
Terry Christian is on the Twitter lunatic fringe. A bright person who just can't help himself on Twitter. Typing statuses does something twisted and nasty to his mental thoughts. He's in the loony-bucket with the likes of Carole Cadwalladr and Toby Young, and of course Trump.
FPT - @Richard_Nabavi must be the only person on the planet who actually likes Opera!
Er, no. I adore it. Mozart, Puccini, Bizet, Verdi, Rossini - superb.
My favourite bits:-
1. The “Verrano a te sull” aure” duet in Lucia Di Lamermoor. 2. Bizet’s Carmen - any of it. See the Francesco Rosi film of it set in and around Seville for the full Spanish experience. 3. Mozart’s Don Giovanni, The Marriage of Figaro and Cosi Fan Tutte: all of them superb. But the end of the first Act of Marriage of Figaro when each of the characters come on stage in turn and all of them are singing in one glorious melding of voices is just outstanding. 4. “Va Pensiero” - the chorus of the Hebrew slaves in Nabucco. This - https://youtu.be/2VejTwFjwVI - is a spine-tingling version. 5. Tosca - “E lucevan le stelle” from Tosca - though the whole opera is amazing. 6. La Traviata.
And others which are not operas but which lift the spirits:-
7. The “dies irae” from Mozart’s Requiem. 8. This version of Verdi’s Requiem - https://youtu.be/6pVYB6IaiFc. Especially the “Libera me” at the end. 9. Hadyn’s Creation. 10. Handel’s Messiah.
All great, particularly The Marriage of Figaro. I’m a fan of La Boheme as well, but might give it a miss while this is on...
Yes La Boheme is wonderful.
Two other pieces of music which are unmissable: Pergolesi’s Stabat Mater and Allegra’s Miserere. The latter is sublime.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
Terry Christian is on the Twitter lunatic fringe. A bright person who just can't help himself on Twitter. Typing statuses does something twisted and nasty to his mental thoughts. He's in the loony-bucket with the likes of Carole Cadwalladr and Toby Young, and of course Trump.
HYUFD - I don't want to get into the discussion you are having on the loans, primarily because I don't know the details but can I just clarify something in general:
Previously you said bank loans had to be guaranteed (that is generally not specific to this scenario). It was pointed out by many that this was not the case. You don't still believe that do you?
Just to confirm unsecured loans are quite common. I have often borrowed and the only secured loans I have had are for the mortgages on my house. All others have been unsecured loans. In fact of course this is what 'mortgage' means.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
Terry Christian is on the Twitter lunatic fringe. A bright person who just can't help himself on Twitter. Typing statuses does something twisted and nasty to his mental thoughts. He's in the loony-bucket with the likes of Carole Cadwalladr and Toby Young, and of course Trump.
I'm not sure Trump, at the least, is any different in person.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
Terry Christian is on the Twitter lunatic fringe. A bright person who just can't help himself on Twitter. Typing statuses does something twisted and nasty to his mental thoughts. He's in the loony-bucket with the likes of Carole Cadwalladr and Toby Young, and of course Trump.
I'm not sure Trump, at the least, is any different in person.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
The original message is fine? You think it's okay to consign Tory voters to death?
That was not the original message!
Hm, I thought that it referred to 'his point' discussed in the previous sentence. What the two workers had originally isn't really relevant.
The country is clearly on a "war footing" mode where they'll give their support to the government because... well what's the alternative?
This support will melt away as quickly as snow in June once the crisis is over IMO.
Agreed. I'm sure the tory rating will still be high but even if they respond as well as humanly possible things will have gone wrong or not perfectly and people will hit them on that.
The people I find most annoying are those (including one relative of mine) who think Boris is doing a wonderful job and will hear no criticism of him, but who continue to ignore the travel restrictions that his government has (rightly, if tardily, IMO) imposed!
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
Why would I be upset? In any case the average house price in the south is over £250 000 so this is only focused on very small businesses correctly
Why would you be upset? Because (a) you proclaimed the brilliance of the scheme as previously (not) implemented by the banks and (b) you seem to almost be revelling in the spectacle of businesses going to the wall.
a) The scheme still stays as it is for all but the smallest businesses as taxpayers cannot pay grants without limit and nor can banks provide loans without guarantees.
b) Outrageous accusation with no evidence
You keep posting the same nonsense. "Banks cannot provide loans without guarantees". The government are proving the guarantee. Thats the whole point. And the amount? An initial £330bn with as much as required. Thats literally what Sunak said.
The government guarantees are for 80% not 100% and to the lender not the borrower. The only change today is personal guarantees by company owners under £250 000 will not be allowed, which will be irrelevant for most company owners given £250 000 is below the average house price in the south and all but the smallest company owners will own property over that level
What's the value of a director's house got to do with the amount of money a company may need to stay afloat?
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
Terry Christian is on the Twitter lunatic fringe. A bright person who just can't help himself on Twitter. Typing statuses does something twisted and nasty to his mental thoughts. He's in the loony-bucket with the likes of Carole Cadwalladr and Toby Young, and of course Trump.
Toby Young isn't a loony.
Ooh, he's provocative though. And says some quite twisted stuff. But yeah, not as Twitter-crazy as the others.
Thanks, people. That's another two weeks of lockdown then.
We'll keep doing it unil you get it right.
It's your time you're wasting...
At the risk of breaking the blog, I'll ask: is there a chance this is a SE thing?
Very very quiet around my Midlands patch. A tweet in reply to O'hara's tweet said it was v quiet in E Yorkshire.
The same is true of my area. Still pretty quiet.
Telegraph:
Raj Kohli, borough commander of Camden, north London, said: "I still think people think it's not as serious as it is. Exercise is fine but people need to use common sense - some are using exercise as an excuse to meet friends."
I'm surprised that the self-isolation advice says it's still ok to go out to exercise.
Without wanting to sound all Hitchens, if this lasts a year and people stop exercising, how many obesity related deaths will be added in the next decade?
It's a fair point. IT's easy to comfort eat and drink. I've noticed that, and made a determination not to snack and eat healthy. On the drinking point, to have a fair few days not drinking int he week, and when do, only moderately.
It's also going to effect how long a lock down can be sustained for. All those saying that they can survive staying inside forever, without even seeing another person.... splendid, if true*
*What King Edward said to Admiral Fisher in relation to a boast by the latter as to his success with the ladies.
All great, particularly The Marriage of Figaro. I’m a fan of La Boheme as well, but might give it a miss while this is on...
In case you haven't picked this up, Garsington are providing a free stream of their Marriage of Figaro. I haven't yet watched it, but the production got excellent reviews and I think it will be a treat:
All great, particularly The Marriage of Figaro. I’m a fan of La Boheme as well, but might give it a miss while this is on...
In case you haven't picked this up, Garsington are providing a free stream of their Marriage of Figaro. I haven't yet watched it, but the production got excellent reviews and I think it will be a treat:
(The Bartered Bride is also excellent, I saw that live).
Thank you very much for that link. Did you see the NT stream of “One Man...” last night? It was superb.
I saw it live and loved it. It wasn’t quite as good as I remembered it when I watched it last night. But still worth seeing. I am looking forward to the other productions though.
FPT - @Richard_Nabavi must be the only person on the planet who actually likes Opera!
Er, no. I adore it. Mozart, Puccini, Bizet, Verdi, Rossini - superb.
My favourite bits:-
1. The “Verrano a te sull” aure” duet in Lucia Di Lamermoor. 2. Bizet’s Carmen - any of it. See the Francesco Rosi film of it set in and around Seville for the full Spanish experience. 3. Mozart’s Don Giovanni, The Marriage of Figaro and Cosi Fan Tutte: all of them superb. But the end of the first Act of Marriage of Figaro when each of the characters come on stage in turn and all of them are singing in one glorious melding of voices is just outstanding. 4. “Va Pensiero” - the chorus of the Hebrew slaves in Nabucco. This - https://youtu.be/2VejTwFjwVI - is a spine-tingling version. 5. Tosca - “E lucevan le stelle” from Tosca - though the whole opera is amazing. 6. La Traviata.
And others which are not operas but which lift the spirits:-
7. The “dies irae” from Mozart’s Requiem. 8. This version of Verdi’s Requiem - https://youtu.be/6pVYB6IaiFc. Especially the “Libera me” at the end. 9. Hadyn’s Creation. 10. Handel’s Messiah.
All great, particularly The Marriage of Figaro. I’m a fan of La Boheme as well, but might give it a miss while this is on...
Yes La Boheme is wonderful.
Two other pieces of music which are unmissable: Pergolesi’s Stabat Mater and Allegra’s Miserere. The latter is sublime.
Having sung in both I would certainly agree, though you do need an exceptional soprano to hit the high notes in the latter.
"Police called as 'up to 100 mourners' defy city's six-person funeral limit in coronavirus lockdown Those present included Birmingham MP Tahir Ali - who attended two on the same day"
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
The response to this situation, both medical and economic has to be dynamic. That is the key - when you change the inputs to a non-linear system, the results will not be predictable at the micro level.
So the banks will resist giving such loans - and their way of resisting will change with the measures used to push them to comply.
Why are they resisting? Because fundamentally they don't want to lend a pile of debt that will go bad. When the crisis ends, many of these loans will do so. Then will come the inevitable public enquiry into why all the government guarantees were used - and the banks know that everyone will forget who was pushing them to give the loans out.
The rule change above will be interesting - the next move on the part of the banks will be interesting.
If the banks dont want to give such loans, open them up to other businesses and individuals. I am very happy to selectively lend to a basket of businesses at 30% pa with a govt guarantee of getting 80% back if they default. Maybe we could band together and call them mutual societies or building societies perhaps.
The building societies aren't keen for the same reason. The remaining mutuals included. For the same reason....
Scene in a committee room at the House of Commons in 2022 -
"So you made x amount from selling loans that you knew were going to go bad. Why did you rip the people of this country off?"
The answer "You told me to" will not be a win....
Lets dispel this notion that the banks are worried about the loans being commercial.
Look at the maths, they are offering 30% pa, director personal guarantee and get 80% back from govt if it goes wrong.
Assume 50% of businesses applying go bust, and 20% of the directors go bankrupt. Those seem on the extremely conservative but just about plausible side?
So 90% of the time (50% from businesses, and 40% from guarantors), the bank gets back 1.3 - thats 1.17
10% of the time they get back 0.8 - thats 0.08
They would be making 25% average margin based on 50% businesses and 20% directors going bust. It is pure greed and extortion, nothing to do with needing to lend at commercial rates.
The directors are far better off applying for half a dozen personal credit cards from the same banks and play balance transfer games to get their loans.
The requirement for director guarantees has been removed.
Yes that is good. Malmesburys view is that the director guarantees were needed.
I think offering businesses a choice of:
a) director guarantees and 5% pa b) no guarantees and 15% pa
would be appropriate. 30% plus guarantees was extortionate.
Although if you are applying for a crisis loan then you are - by definition - high risk...
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
Terry Christian is on the Twitter lunatic fringe. A bright person who just can't help himself on Twitter. Typing statuses does something twisted and nasty to his mental thoughts. He's in the loony-bucket with the likes of Carole Cadwalladr and Toby Young, and of course Trump.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
Memes where you take an original image or comic and then replace the words have been ubiquitous on social media for years. I don't think there's any attempt to pretend those were the original signs, given how obvious it is that the original sign was painted over in a different colour and that the writing is a font rather than handwriting.
To save me the bother of checking, were you one of the people who were absolutely appalled by the Tory #FactCheck GE debate nonsense?
Appalled? No. It was obviously underhanded, though.
If you're trying to draw a parallel, the point of my previous message was that- unlike the fact check thing- I don't see any reason to think the photo was intended to deceive. As I said, the idea of a photo or comic being a "meme format" which is then modified with text to have different meanings is ubiquitous on social media. As a creator you expect your audience to understand that you're not showing the original. And that makes a lot more sense in this case, unless you think Christians' intent was to get two random NHS workers in trouble.
HYUFD - I don't want to get into the discussion you are having on the loans, primarily because I don't know the details but can I just clarify something in general:
Previously you said bank loans had to be guaranteed (that is generally not specific to this scenario). It was pointed out by many that this was not the case. You don't still believe that do you?
Just to confirm unsecured loans are quite common. I have often borrowed and the only secured loans I have had are for the mortgages on my house. All others have been unsecured loans. In fact of course this is what 'mortgage' means.
Which is irrelevant to the news today which was not dealing with unsecured loans but banning secured loans banks are getting personal guarantees for from company owners for values under £250k, which as I pointed out is also irrelevant for all but the smallest company owners as most company owners will own property above that level given the average property price in the south is above £250k
HYUFD - I don't want to get into the discussion you are having on the loans, primarily because I don't know the details but can I just clarify something in general:
Previously you said bank loans had to be guaranteed (that is generally not specific to this scenario). It was pointed out by many that this was not the case. You don't still believe that do you?
Just to confirm unsecured loans are quite common. I have often borrowed and the only secured loans I have had are for the mortgages on my house. All others have been unsecured loans. In fact of course this is what 'mortgage' means.
Are those business loans? If so, who have you been using.
Business lending in the UK (for the SME sector) appears to be predicated on the imminent failure of the company - high interest, demand for security etc.This is a long running issue. It goes back, in fact to before 1900....
I reckon I had a case of Coronachondria yesterday. Woke up this morning with barely a sniffle in evidence. As you were.
I've been coughing since I had a bug in December (and it's a "dry" cough too) so I'm always obsessing about whether it's just "same old same old" cough or something different is going on lol!
Likewise - got a slight tail end of an occasional cough. The doctor said it was fine and normal.
Seems a lot of people got something in December that ended up with a cough that fades away very, very slowly.
Add me to that number. mid-December mine started. Had a bit of a coughing fit yesterday when walking the dog. Somebody 50 yards was looking rather perturbed.....
Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.
Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
It does sound encouraging in that it is not that easy to transmit the virus other than by direct person-to-person contact (meaning that confined spaces - airplanes / cruise liners / parties) are the best means. It's quite good since it will help us work out what can be opened and how - in other words, what degree of social distancing is required moving forward to minimise ongoing transmission. It certainly suggests that pubs / clubs might be amongst the last places to re-open.
I would not be at all surprised if it does turn out that transmission via touching surfaces is a very minor part of the infectious route. I've thought that from the start, simply because if that were not the case, I can't see how contact-tracing would have worked so well in the early days. Those early unknowingly infected people would have continued with their normal life, including going shopping, using cash machines etc, but there didn't seem to be any localised hotspots associated with them which couldn't be traced back to people they'd been in more close contact with.
Still, since we don't know for sure, for the moment we should continue to play safe.
That is very interesting... Streeck, who is director of the Institute of Virology at Bonn University, said he was able to detect coronavirus by swabbing remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles. However, it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs. "This means that we have detected the RNA (or ribonucleic acid, which carries the virus’s genetic information) of 'dead' viruses," Streeck said. According to his previous research results, he believes "that a door handle can only be infectious if someone has actually coughed in their hand and then reached for it. "After that, you have to reach for the door handle yourself and touch your face," he said. It is not yet possible to say how long the virus can remain on a door handle because not enough studies have been carried out. Streeck added: "We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface." He said these early research results would now be further developed in the current study in Heinsberg....
Clearly these observations need further exploration, and independent confirmation, but if they do bear out, then it would make management of the pandemic considerably less complicated.
All great, particularly The Marriage of Figaro. I’m a fan of La Boheme as well, but might give it a miss while this is on...
In case you haven't picked this up, Garsington are providing a free stream of their Marriage of Figaro. I haven't yet watched it, but the production got excellent reviews and I think it will be a treat:
(The Bartered Bride is also excellent, I saw that live).
Thank you very much for that link. Did you see the NT stream of “One Man...” last night? It was superb.
I saw it live and loved it. It wasn’t quite as good as I remembered it when I watched it last night. But still worth seeing. I am looking forward to the other productions though.
I saw it after the original run with a different cast. It was good, but not nearly as good as the one broadcast last night. James Cordon’s interaction with the audience was amazing.
So as well as a Gardening Corner, we should have a best pieces of music / concerts / theatre to see / books to read and museum collections to view on-line Recommendations Corner.
Maybe a round-up during the Nighthawks Thread?
What should we call it? The Arts Corner? Or the Artsy PonceyBoots Corner - in case @SeanT ever reappears as himself.....?
FPT - I’m going to enjoy drinking as much as I can (consistent with being functional during the day and getting a decent sleep) during this crisis. I’ve ordered in some great wines and champagnes.
The hair shirt brigade / busybodies seem mainly interested in policing people who leave the house, policing that they properly clap according to approved doctrine on the doorsteps of their houses, and trying to shame them as to what they do inside their houses.
They can fuck off.
Who exactly are "policing that people clap according to the doctrine on their doorsteps". "Quasi-Stalinist" I believe you called it last night.
Certainly hasn't made any of the news outlets I've seen. Could it possibly all be in your fevered imagination?
It may not have made your news outlets but it is certainly happening. Personally I disagree with Casino and think the clap is a good thing, but it is sad to see on the local village facebook page this morning complaints about certain houses and certain streets not taking part. As with all social media it turns nasty rather quickly.
Fair enough, I was unaware of it.
Hardly sounds quasi-Stalinist though. Reading Casino Royale's post I assumed their were vigilantes dragging people from their houses and forcing them to clap for five minutes.
If the identification on social media of individual houses as dissing the nhs doesn't cause you disquiet it bloody well should. I would be utterly unamazed to learn of vandalistic reprisals.
If I got disquieted by everything that was said on social media I would never get out of bed in the morning.
So what is your solution? Ban people from showing their appreciation to the NHS because a few idiots might say nasty things about those that don't?
Publicly name and shame them under #Blockfuhrer on Twitter.
Then photoshop their faces into them wearing an SS uniform.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
Why would I be upset? In any case the average house price in the south is over £250 000 so this is only focused on very small businesses correctly
Why would you be upset? Because (a) you proclaimed the brilliance of the scheme as previously (not) implemented by the banks and (b) you seem to almost be revelling in the spectacle of businesses going to the wall.
a) The scheme still stays as it is for all but the smallest businesses as taxpayers cannot pay grants without limit and nor can banks provide loans without guarantees.
b) Outrageous accusation with no evidence
You keep posting the same nonsense. "Banks cannot provide loans without guarantees". The government are proving the guarantee. Thats the whole point. And the amount? An initial £330bn with as much as required. Thats literally what Sunak said.
The government guarantees are for 80% not 100% and to the lender not the borrower. The only change today is personal guarantees by company owners under £250 000 will not be allowed, which will be irrelevant for most company owners given £250 000 is below the average house price in the south and all but the smallest company owners will own property over that level
Having said I wont get into this I assume you are saying that guarantees will not be necessary because they have a house worth more than £250,000. There is a problem with this:
a) There is likely to be a charge on the property by the mortgage lender already.
b) There is likely to be a charge on the property by a bank which has made a previous loan to the business (something that would have been very necessary if the business is limited liability and the house probably owned by the business owner (shareholder) and not the business.
c) If the business is limited liability the bank/govt has no recourse to go for the house unless b) is in place.
All great, particularly The Marriage of Figaro. I’m a fan of La Boheme as well, but might give it a miss while this is on...
In case you haven't picked this up, Garsington are providing a free stream of their Marriage of Figaro. I haven't yet watched it, but the production got excellent reviews and I think it will be a treat:
(The Bartered Bride is also excellent, I saw that live).
Thank you very much for that link. Did you see the NT stream of “One Man...” last night? It was superb.
I saw it live and loved it. It wasn’t quite as good as I remembered it when I watched it last night. But still worth seeing. I am looking forward to the other productions though.
I saw it after the original run with a different cast. It was good, but not nearly as good as the one broadcast last night. James Cordon’s interaction with the audience was amazing.
Having seen it twice with James Corden I thought I'd give it a miss.
At the time it was slightly disappointing to learn that those interactions are all in the script...
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
Why would I be upset? In any case the average house price in the south is over £250 000 so this is only focused on very small businesses correctly
Why would you be upset? Because (a) you proclaimed the brilliance of the scheme as previously (not) implemented by the banks and (b) you seem to almost be revelling in the spectacle of businesses going to the wall.
a) The scheme still stays as it is for all but the smallest businesses as taxpayers cannot pay grants without limit and nor can banks provide loans without guarantees.
b) Outrageous accusation with no evidence
You keep posting the same nonsense. "Banks cannot provide loans without guarantees". The government are proving the guarantee. Thats the whole point. And the amount? An initial £330bn with as much as required. Thats literally what Sunak said.
The government guarantees are for 80% not 100% and to the lender not the borrower. The only change today is personal guarantees by company owners under £250 000 will not be allowed, which will be irrelevant for most company owners given £250 000 is below the average house price in the south and all but the smallest company owners will own property over that level
What's the value of a director's house got to do with the amount of money a company may need to stay afloat?
As the director might need to put up his house as security to the bank to get the loan to keep his company afloat
They rubbish their own data (quite rightly)! As generalisations you could draw these graphs yourself but you wouldn't even try to include China or Iran.
Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.
Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
HYUFD - I don't want to get into the discussion you are having on the loans, primarily because I don't know the details but can I just clarify something in general:
Previously you said bank loans had to be guaranteed (that is generally not specific to this scenario). It was pointed out by many that this was not the case. You don't still believe that do you?
Just to confirm unsecured loans are quite common. I have often borrowed and the only secured loans I have had are for the mortgages on my house. All others have been unsecured loans. In fact of course this is what 'mortgage' means.
Are those business loans? If so, who have you been using.
Business lending in the UK (for the SME sector) appears to be predicated on the imminent failure of the company - high interest, demand for security etc.This is a long running issue. It goes back, in fact to before 1900....
Personal loans. I was fortunate never needing to borrow for my business. I take advantage of low interest offers and reinvest.
So as well as a Gardening Corner, we should have a best pieces of music / concerts / theatre to see / books to read and museum collections to view on-line Recommendations Corner.
Maybe a round-up during the Nighthawks Thread?
What should we call it? The Arts Corner? Or the Artsy PonceyBoots Corner - in case @SeanT ever reappears as himself.....?
Particularly give the number of high quality productions being streamed free for limited times at the moment.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
The original message is fine? You think it's okay to consign Tory voters to death?
Never trust anything on the internet......
I imagine however, given their actual message, that they would be much happier treating people who haven't deliberately flouted any lockdown measures. If these are becoming less completely complied with, maybe the threat of that would work wonders. 'Leave home without good reason and you'll be put at the back of the queue for treatment' might be a much more effective sanction than 'Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives'.
FPT - I’m going to enjoy drinking as much as I can (consistent with being functional during the day and getting a decent sleep) during this crisis. I’ve ordered in some great wines and champagnes.
The hair shirt brigade / busybodies seem mainly interested in policing people who leave the house, policing that they properly clap according to approved doctrine on the doorsteps of their houses, and trying to shame them as to what they do inside their houses.
They can fuck off.
Who exactly are "policing that people clap according to the doctrine on their doorsteps". "Quasi-Stalinist" I believe you called it last night.
Certainly hasn't made any of the news outlets I've seen. Could it possibly all be in your fevered imagination?
It may not have made your news outlets but it is certainly happening. Personally I disagree with Casino and think the clap is a good thing, but it is sad to see on the local village facebook page this morning complaints about certain houses and certain streets not taking part. As with all social media it turns nasty rather quickly.
Fair enough, I was unaware of it.
Hardly sounds quasi-Stalinist though. Reading Casino Royale's post I assumed their were vigilantes dragging people from their houses and forcing them to clap for five minutes.
If the identification on social media of individual houses as dissing the nhs doesn't cause you disquiet it bloody well should. I would be utterly unamazed to learn of vandalistic reprisals.
If I got disquieted by everything that was said on social media I would never get out of bed in the morning.
So what is your solution? Ban people from showing their appreciation to the NHS because a few idiots might say nasty things about those that don't?
Perhaps not actually ban people from being mawkish arseholes, but on the other hand not institutionalise it like a Two Minutes Hate? I really don't like people who think there are acceptable levels of "soft" intimidation and vigilantism.
HYUFD - I don't want to get into the discussion you are having on the loans, primarily because I don't know the details but can I just clarify something in general:
Previously you said bank loans had to be guaranteed (that is generally not specific to this scenario). It was pointed out by many that this was not the case. You don't still believe that do you?
Just to confirm unsecured loans are quite common. I have often borrowed and the only secured loans I have had are for the mortgages on my house. All others have been unsecured loans. In fact of course this is what 'mortgage' means.
Which is irrelevant to the news today which was not dealing with unsecured loans but banning secured loans banks are getting personal guarantees for from company owners for values under £250k, which as I pointed out is also irrelevant for all but the smallest company owners as most company owners will own property above that level given the average property price in the south is above £250k
I wasn't dealing with today's discussion (as I made clear in my post), although I now have in a subsequent post.
The question is: Do you accept there is such a thing as an unsecured loan?
Thanks for all the responses. Still no idea what it was or whether linked somehow to C-virus but it sure as hell didn't feel like any normal cold.
Maybe I'll find out one day.
For most of March I experienced a very mild sniffly cold. It was a very unusual cold in that it was lacking the usual sore throat or temperature, and gave rise to only occasional sneezing. I have heard of others experiencing this too. Anyone else?
Yes, had my usual winter cold around mid Jan, cleared up with the usual 3 days of Night Nurse and staying indoors. But it did leave me with a persistent dry cough and I get a bit sniffily and hot late in the evening some nights but it has gone the next morning other than the cough which is finally beginning to abate a nearly 3 months on.
HYUFD will be upset - the Chancellor has had to make changes to the unworkable business interruption loans scheme. "New rules will prevent lenders from requesting personal guarantees for loans under £250,000"
Why would I be upset? In any case the average house price in the south is over £250 000 so this is only focused on very small businesses correctly
Why would you be upset? Because (a) you proclaimed the brilliance of the scheme as previously (not) implemented by the banks and (b) you seem to almost be revelling in the spectacle of businesses going to the wall.
a) The scheme still stays as it is for all but the smallest businesses as taxpayers cannot pay grants without limit and nor can banks provide loans without guarantees.
b) Outrageous accusation with no evidence
You keep posting the same nonsense. "Banks cannot provide loans without guarantees". The government are proving the guarantee. Thats the whole point. And the amount? An initial £330bn with as much as required. Thats literally what Sunak said.
Not quite, though. The banks are on the hook for the loan.
For it to work as you suggest, the structure would have to be that the bank is just acting as *agent* for the government and takes a fee, but no capital risk. That might be a better structure in this circumstance. Then their role would essentially be fact checking.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
The original message is fine? You think it's okay to consign Tory voters to death?
Never trust anything on the internet......
I imagine however, given their actual message, that they would be much happier treating people who haven't deliberately flouted any lockdown measures. If these are becoming less completely complied with, maybe the threat of that would work wonders. 'Leave home and you'll be put at the back of the queue for treatment' might be a much more effective sanction than 'Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives'.
What's that got to do with Tory voters? And anyway, I thought the NHS was supposed to be universal, regardless of how good of a person you have been.
Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.
Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
HYUFD - I don't want to get into the discussion you are having on the loans, primarily because I don't know the details but can I just clarify something in general:
Previously you said bank loans had to be guaranteed (that is generally not specific to this scenario). It was pointed out by many that this was not the case. You don't still believe that do you?
Just to confirm unsecured loans are quite common. I have often borrowed and the only secured loans I have had are for the mortgages on my house. All others have been unsecured loans. In fact of course this is what 'mortgage' means.
Are those business loans? If so, who have you been using.
Business lending in the UK (for the SME sector) appears to be predicated on the imminent failure of the company - high interest, demand for security etc.This is a long running issue. It goes back, in fact to before 1900....
Personal loans. I was fortunate never needing to borrow for my business. I take advantage of low interest offers and reinvest.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
Memes where you take an original image or comic and then replace the words have been ubiquitous on social media for years. I don't think there's any attempt to pretend those were the original signs, given how obvious it is that the original sign was painted over in a different colour and that the writing is a font rather than handwriting.
To save me the bother of checking, were you one of the people who were absolutely appalled by the Tory #FactCheck GE debate nonsense?
Appalled? No. It was obviously underhanded, though.
If you're trying to draw a parallel, the point of my previous message was that- unlike the fact check thing- I don't see any reason to think the photo was intended to deceive. As I said, the idea of a photo or comic being a "meme format" which is then modified with text to have different meanings is ubiquitous on social media. As a creator you expect your audience to understand that you're not showing the original. And that makes a lot more sense in this case, unless you think Christians' intent was to get two random NHS workers in trouble.
I agree that it's unlikely that his intent was to get the NHS workers into trouble. It was and is, however, a perfectly plausible consequence. It's utterly irresponsible behaviour.
I also take issue with both your use of the word "creator" (he's basically just stolen someone else's material and repurposed it), and, more importantly, the notion that you're allowed to publish something controversial in the public domain and "expect" everyone in the world to understand what you're done, and that it's somehow their fault if they don't.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
Memes where you take an original image or comic and then replace the words have been ubiquitous on social media for years. I don't think there's any attempt to pretend those were the original signs, given how obvious it is that the original sign was painted over in a different colour and that the writing is a font rather than handwriting.
To save me the bother of checking, were you one of the people who were absolutely appalled by the Tory #FactCheck GE debate nonsense?
Appalled? No. It was obviously underhanded, though.
If you're trying to draw a parallel, the point of my previous message was that- unlike the fact check thing- I don't see any reason to think the photo was intended to deceive. As I said, the idea of a photo or comic being a "meme format" which is then modified with text to have different meanings is ubiquitous on social media. As a creator you expect your audience to understand that you're not showing the original. And that makes a lot more sense in this case, unless you think Christians' intent was to get two random NHS workers in trouble.
I agree that it's unlikely that his intent was to get the NHS workers into trouble. It was and is, however, a perfectly plausible consequence. It's utterly irresponsible behaviour.
I also take issue with both your use of the word "creator" (he's basically just stolen someone else's material and repurposed it), and, more importantly, the notion that you're allowed to publish something controversial in the public domain and "expect" everyone in the world to understand what you're done, and that it's somehow their fault if they don't.
A benefit of the doubt that wasn't extended to CCHQ...
All great, particularly The Marriage of Figaro. I’m a fan of La Boheme as well, but might give it a miss while this is on...
In case you haven't picked this up, Garsington are providing a free stream of their Marriage of Figaro. I haven't yet watched it, but the production got excellent reviews and I think it will be a treat:
All great, particularly The Marriage of Figaro. I’m a fan of La Boheme as well, but might give it a miss while this is on...
In case you haven't picked this up, Garsington are providing a free stream of their Marriage of Figaro. I haven't yet watched it, but the production got excellent reviews and I think it will be a treat:
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
The original message is fine? You think it's okay to consign Tory voters to death?
Never trust anything on the internet......
I imagine however, given their actual message, that they would be much happier treating people who haven't deliberately flouted any lockdown measures. If these are becoming less completely complied with, maybe the threat of that would work wonders. 'Leave home without good reason and you'll be put at the back of the queue for treatment' might be a much more effective sanction than 'Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives'.
You will then run head-on into a thing call medical ethics.
Among other things, these are enforced at a professional level.
Yes, there has been debate about priority in treatment for smokers, etc... Hence a debate.
Which is at it should be - I don't want people making up rules as to whether *you* should be treated or not.
Because whatever will be done to *you*, will be done to me.
Yesterday on my cycle I approached a couple walking ahead of me and thought I should alert them to my presence. So instead of shouting, or calling, I had the bright idea of a loud cough. They both turned round terrified and actually cowered away. I did a lot of apologising and trying to prove myself healthy.
Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
Yes, coughing is the new flashing.
We walked with the baby over the countryside yesterday. When we made it back to the road a couple with a dog were approaching us. There were no cars on the road. Then, a police car zoomed past having turned its siren on two seconds previously. I can only assume they thought it would be a laugh to wake the baby, make us jump and the dog bark.
Thanks for all the responses. Still no idea what it was or whether linked somehow to C-virus but it sure as hell didn't feel like any normal cold.
Maybe I'll find out one day.
For most of March I experienced a very mild sniffly cold. It was a very unusual cold in that it was lacking the usual sore throat or temperature, and gave rise to only occasional sneezing. I have heard of others experiencing this too. Anyone else?
Yes, had my usual winter cold around mid Jan, cleared up with the usual 3 days of Night Nurse and staying indoors. But it did leave me with a persistent dry cough and I get a bit sniffily and hot late in the evening some nights but it has gone the next morning other than the cough which is finally beginning to abate a nearly 3 months on.
I'm in the middle of something similar. There seems to be some anecdotal evidence of non CV19 cold/ flu type infections doing the rounds. Maybe the cause of the low positive rate on tests done?
HYUFD - I don't want to get into the discussion you are having on the loans, primarily because I don't know the details but can I just clarify something in general:
Previously you said bank loans had to be guaranteed (that is generally not specific to this scenario). It was pointed out by many that this was not the case. You don't still believe that do you?
Just to confirm unsecured loans are quite common. I have often borrowed and the only secured loans I have had are for the mortgages on my house. All others have been unsecured loans. In fact of course this is what 'mortgage' means.
Are those business loans? If so, who have you been using.
Business lending in the UK (for the SME sector) appears to be predicated on the imminent failure of the company - high interest, demand for security etc.This is a long running issue. It goes back, in fact to before 1900....
Personal loans. I was fortunate never needing to borrow for my business. I take advantage of low interest offers and reinvest.
You will find in the small print that using such a personal loan for business purposes means you have violated the terms of the agreement. BIt like using a normal mortgage for a let property.
The world of business banking is very much removed from the customer world. Fees per cheque paid in, fees, fees, fees. Loans are very expensive.
Although I am no fan of Vance I do think, if correct, that is quite disgraceful for using those two care workers to make his point. That could have had repercussions for both of those workers. Especially when the original message is fine.
Memes where you take an original image or comic and then replace the words have been ubiquitous on social media for years. I don't think there's any attempt to pretend those were the original signs, given how obvious it is that the original sign was painted over in a different colour and that the writing is a font rather than handwriting.
To save me the bother of checking, were you one of the people who were absolutely appalled by the Tory #FactCheck GE debate nonsense?
Appalled? No. It was obviously underhanded, though.
If you're trying to draw a parallel, the point of my previous message was that- unlike the fact check thing- I don't see any reason to think the photo was intended to deceive. As I said, the idea of a photo or comic being a "meme format" which is then modified with text to have different meanings is ubiquitous on social media. As a creator you expect your audience to understand that you're not showing the original. And that makes a lot more sense in this case, unless you think Christians' intent was to get two random NHS workers in trouble.
I agree that it's unlikely that his intent was to get the NHS workers into trouble. It was and is, however, a perfectly plausible consequence. It's utterly irresponsible behaviour.
I also take issue with both your use of the word "creator" (he's basically just stolen someone else's material and repurposed it), and, more importantly, the notion that you're allowed to publish something controversial in the public domain and "expect" everyone in the world to understand what you're done, and that it's somehow their fault if they don't.
A benefit of the doubt that wasn't extended to CCHQ...
Because it wasn't a "meme". Everything is apparently fine as long as it conforms to the Universal Codified Laws of Memes, Which Everyone Knows And Is Aware Of.
Comments
Wherever we might draw the line, it sounds as though some places are well across it...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/world/australia/coronavirus-police-lockdowns.html
...But in other countries, enforcement has been much more aggressive and escalated into serious violence. In Kenya, officers are under investigation in multiple cases, including the death of a teenager shot while standing on a balcony during a dusk-to-dawn curfew. The police also used tear gas and batons on passengers at a ferry terminal and are being investigated in at least two other deaths, leading President Uhuru Kenyatta to say he regretted the violence.
In the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte on Wednesday ordered the police and the military to shoot anyone who “causes commotion,” after 20 protesters were arrested as they demanded food during the country’s lockdown....
It was something different... but again we have to assume it wasn't COVID-19-related and practice all the social distancing measures especially anyone that still hasn't properly recovered.
Going down the loans route is for companies who think they can survive but dont have the cash flow. Id be quite surprised if 50% of them go bust, let alone 90%.
There is a very plausible chance much, much more than 50% will go bust. Especially given those that don't need loans won't be taking them.
b) Outrageous accusation with no evidence
Still, since we don't know for sure, for the moment we should continue to play safe.
I work in engineering (at the sharp end, actually making stuff). My employer has closed for the duration, but I'm still dealing with some suppliers and sub contractors. Many of them are gradually shutting up shop, mainly because the supply chains are gradually collapsing, so if anything I'd expect to roads to be getting quieter.
We're in a fairly strong cash position compared to usual, but I think we'll only last until around June even with the government's furlongh money paying wages - like many businesses, we have a lot of other costs which aren't going away just because we've stopped working, but our income has stopped completely.
One thing the government could and should do is suspend business rates for all businesses - we may be able to reach an accommodation with our landlord (it's not like anyone else will be wanting to rent our site right now), but business rates represent a good chunk of our totally unavoidable costs which are steadily eating through our cash reserves.
https://www.youtube.com/user/GarsingtonOpera
(The Bartered Bride is also excellent, I saw that live).
Microneedle array delivered recombinant coronavirus vaccines: Immunogenicity and rapid translational development
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/ebiom/PIIS2352-3964(20)30118-3.pdf
In autumn and winter I drink bitter, in spring and summer, lager, this is a fixed habit of mine, part of the ritual of the year as it changes. I like that sort of thing.
So, point is, I do not expect my next pint to be a Stella or a Bud. I am pretty sure it will be something along the lines of "Bourne Valley Old Codge & Wallop".
https://abc7.com/laredo-texas-coronavirus-wearing-masks-covid-19/6070888/
They are significant and welcome changes to a scheme that was not working.
If the weather stays nice it's actually pretty good where I live because I can get straight up the hills without seeing anybody. Plenty of dog walking coming up!
Good luck to everybody trying to avoid the virus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLhtJvl_5sA
The only change today is personal guarantees by company owners under £250 000 will not be allowed, which will be irrelevant for most company owners given £250 000 is below the average house price in the south and all but the smallest company owners will own property over that level
So what is your solution? Ban people from showing their appreciation to the NHS because a few idiots might say nasty things about those that don't?
https://twitter.com/nhsengland/status/1245983281323085827?s=21
"You know, absolute drivel makes a lot of sense"
Two other pieces of music which are unmissable: Pergolesi’s Stabat Mater and Allegra’s Miserere. The latter is sublime.
Previously you said bank loans had to be guaranteed (that is generally not specific to this scenario). It was pointed out by many that this was not the case. You don't still believe that do you?
Just to confirm unsecured loans are quite common. I have often borrowed and the only secured loans I have had are for the mortgages on my house. All others have been unsecured loans. In fact of course this is what 'mortgage' means.
*What King Edward said to Admiral Fisher in relation to a boast by the latter as to his success with the ladies.
https://operavision.eu/en
We watched the Glyndebourne's Die Entführung aus den Serail earlier in the week.
Those present included Birmingham MP Tahir Ali - who attended two on the same day"
https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/police-called-up-100-mourners-18028561
If you're trying to draw a parallel, the point of my previous message was that- unlike the fact check thing- I don't see any reason to think the photo was intended to deceive. As I said, the idea of a photo or comic being a "meme format" which is then modified with text to have different meanings is ubiquitous on social media. As a creator you expect your audience to understand that you're not showing the original. And that makes a lot more sense in this case, unless you think Christians' intent was to get two random NHS workers in trouble.
Business lending in the UK (for the SME sector) appears to be predicated on the imminent failure of the company - high interest, demand for security etc.This is a long running issue. It goes back, in fact to before 1900....
Which, despite my sojourn at Prestbury Park coming up for a month ago, for the moment I remain.
Streeck, who is director of the Institute of Virology at Bonn University, said he was able to detect coronavirus by swabbing remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles.
However, it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs. "This means that we have detected the RNA (or ribonucleic acid, which carries the virus’s genetic information) of 'dead' viruses," Streeck said.
According to his previous research results, he believes "that a door handle can only be infectious if someone has actually coughed in their hand and then reached for it.
"After that, you have to reach for the door handle yourself and touch your face," he said. It is not yet possible to say how long the virus can remain on a door handle because not enough studies have been carried out.
Streeck added: "We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface."
He said these early research results would now be further developed in the current study in Heinsberg....
Clearly these observations need further exploration, and independent confirmation, but if they do bear out, then it would make management of the pandemic considerably less complicated.
Maybe a round-up during the Nighthawks Thread?
What should we call it? The Arts Corner? Or the Artsy PonceyBoots Corner - in case @SeanT ever reappears as himself.....?
Then photoshop their faces into them wearing an SS uniform.
Obviously.
a) There is likely to be a charge on the property by the mortgage lender already.
b) There is likely to be a charge on the property by a bank which has made a previous loan to the business (something that would have been very necessary if the business is limited liability and the house probably owned by the business owner (shareholder) and not the business.
c) If the business is limited liability the bank/govt has no recourse to go for the house unless b) is in place.
At the time it was slightly disappointing to learn that those interactions are all in the script...
I imagine however, given their actual message, that they would be much happier treating people who haven't deliberately flouted any lockdown measures. If these are becoming less completely complied with, maybe the threat of that would work wonders. 'Leave home without good reason and you'll be put at the back of the queue for treatment' might be a much more effective sanction than 'Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives'.
The question is: Do you accept there is such a thing as an unsecured loan?
Yes, had my usual winter cold around mid Jan, cleared up with the usual 3 days of Night Nurse and staying indoors. But it did leave me with a persistent dry cough and I get a bit sniffily and hot late in the evening some nights but it has gone the next morning other than the cough which is finally beginning to abate a nearly 3 months on.
For it to work as you suggest, the structure would have to be that the bank is just acting as *agent* for the government and takes a fee, but no capital risk. That might be a better structure in this circumstance. Then their role would essentially be fact checking.
I also take issue with both your use of the word "creator" (he's basically just stolen someone else's material and repurposed it), and, more importantly, the notion that you're allowed to publish something controversial in the public domain and "expect" everyone in the world to understand what you're done, and that it's somehow their fault if they don't.
Among other things, these are enforced at a professional level.
Yes, there has been debate about priority in treatment for smokers, etc... Hence a debate.
Which is at it should be - I don't want people making up rules as to whether *you* should be treated or not.
Because whatever will be done to *you*, will be done to me.
The world of business banking is very much removed from the customer world. Fees per cheque paid in, fees, fees, fees. Loans are very expensive.