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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris admitted to hospital

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  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    Where is the value? Sell Sunak for next PM?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    dr_spyn said:
    A big mis-step by Sturgeon not firing her.

    But it is not exactly a slow news day, so damage minimal.

    dr_spyn said:
    A big mis-step by Sturgeon not firing her.

    But it is not exactly a slow news day, so damage minimal.
    Damage considerable... shown to.be weak.
    The Scotpol explainer has logged on.

    Are the Scottish voters going to give her a kicking as per your devout wish?
    ...We also await the fallout post Salmond being found not guilty
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    eadric said:

    guybrush said:

    Michael Osterholm (American infectious disease epidemiologist, and ex-US gov Bioterrorism advisor) was recently on the Joe Rogan podcast, and discussed the Wuhan lab conspiracy theory. His take that Corvid-19 was way too elegant, too sophisticated to be a man-made bio-weapon.

    So I tend to go with Occam' razor here. Brilliant conspiracy theory/thriller novel ground though, I admit.

    "Escaped from a lab" doesn't have to imply anything other than that the lab was doing research into coronaviruses. It could still be a virus that originated in bats.
    Yes, quite. That’s been my belief from early in feb.

    The fact there was a lab investigating bat coronaviruses just a few hundred meters from the fateful ‘wet market’ of Wuhan is too much coincidence to believe.

    So. It came from honest scientists doing honest research, but it leaked. Maybe a worker sold a Lab bat in the black wet market.
    I can't find the link at the moment but I was reading some of the stories from early January and some doctors in Hong Kong had been querying whether the Chinese authorities were only categorising cases linked to the market as being this new syndrome. It's possible that the link to the 'wet market' was a deliberately chosen narrative.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    eadric said:

    guybrush said:

    Michael Osterholm (American infectious disease epidemiologist, and ex-US gov Bioterrorism advisor) was recently on the Joe Rogan podcast, and discussed the Wuhan lab conspiracy theory. His take that Corvid-19 was way too elegant, too sophisticated to be a man-made bio-weapon.

    So I tend to go with Occam' razor here. Brilliant conspiracy theory/thriller novel ground though, I admit.

    "Escaped from a lab" doesn't have to imply anything other than that the lab was doing research into coronaviruses. It could still be a virus that originated in bats.
    Yes, quite. That’s been my belief from early in feb.

    The fact there was a lab investigating bat coronaviruses just a few hundred meters from the fateful ‘wet market’ of Wuhan is too much coincidence to believe.

    So. It came from honest scientists doing honest research, but it leaked. Maybe a worker sold a Lab bat in the black wet market.
    It sounds far too much like a conspiracy theory to me.

    I'd like to see real solid evidence from reputable sources before I give it the time of day.
    Not a conspiracy theory, a cockup theory.
  • ABZABZ Posts: 441
    Fingers crossed Boris recovers soon.

    Since all is a bit miserable here, some better news: numbers of new cases / fatalities (in hospitals) in both Spain and France are declining extremely fast. It's curious since they locked down later (16th and 18th respectively) than Italy but, at least on the figures from the last couple of days, seem to be declining more rapidly. If we see something similar (fingers crossed) our peak may turn out to be sooner than anticipated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    edited April 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    MikeL said:

    nichomar said:

    MikeL said:

    If Boris couldn't continue, Raab would take over as PM in the short-term but there would then have to be a proper Conservative party leadership election.

    I doubt Raab would win that.

    I would have thought the final two would most likely be Sunak and Hunt.

    It would be sorted out by the MPs nobody sane would now have an election
    Oh sure - I agree it probably wouldn't go to members - but my point is it wouldn't automatically be Raab.

    At a minimum there would be MPs' votes.
    The Cabinet will select a replacement by agreement, probably Raab unfortunately. It would be months before that is put to any kind of vote as the UK would be in a national crisis of even greater proportions that we thought.
    And no matter how grave the crisis, there is no way we can have an election durinv lockdown anyway.
    Indeed, I am sure acting PM Raab, ably supported by Home Secretary Priti Patel can run the lockdown in the meantime while Sunak can keep the finances ticking over
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 234

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    Same, when I heard he first had it. We're both going to hell :)
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    eadric said:

    guybrush said:

    Michael Osterholm (American infectious disease epidemiologist, and ex-US gov Bioterrorism advisor) was recently on the Joe Rogan podcast, and discussed the Wuhan lab conspiracy theory. His take that Corvid-19 was way too elegant, too sophisticated to be a man-made bio-weapon.

    So I tend to go with Occam' razor here. Brilliant conspiracy theory/thriller novel ground though, I admit.

    "Escaped from a lab" doesn't have to imply anything other than that the lab was doing research into coronaviruses. It could still be a virus that originated in bats.
    Yes, quite. That’s been my belief from early in feb.

    The fact there was a lab investigating bat coronaviruses just a few hundred meters from the fateful ‘wet market’ of Wuhan is too much coincidence to believe.

    So. It came from honest scientists doing honest research, but it leaked. Maybe a worker sold a Lab bat in the black wet market.
    Which is how Janet Parker died from smallpox, the last death from smallpox in the UK. It's a fascinating and awful story. The only reason it didn't spread is that they had a vaccine.

    It came about because the virus leaked from the lab. So this is a perfectly plausible theory of yours (et. al.)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-45101091

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited April 2020
    I keep mulling over writing a thread header to explain what is going on in the SNP for Sassenachs but I feel the effort reward ratio would be too low.

    But it is so fascinating, how Joanna Cherry, a woman who spent all her time from 2016 to 2019 dragging the British government through court over Brexit became the figure head of the SNP faction who thought the SNP spent too much time on Brexit and not enough on Indy is less than obvious.
  • Alistair said:

    I keep mulling over writing a thread header to explain what is going on in the SNP for Sassenachs but I feel the effort reward ratio would be too low.

    But it is so fascinating, how Joanna Cherry, a woman who spent all her time from 2016 to 2019 dragging the British government through court over Brexit became the figure head of the SNP faction who thought the SNP spent too much time on Brexit and not enough on Indy is less than obvious.

    Becoming a member of the elite PB thread writers club is the greatest reward of them all.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    If Johnson is unable to continue as PM the case for a GNU would be stronger.

    Yes I think the country will turn to Starmer.

    Amazing timing too - just elected today.
    I can't think of a greater insult to Boris than to replace him with that fucking mediocrity.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    guybrush said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    Same, when I heard he first had it. We're both going to hell :)
    But in a lavish casket.....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
  • Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    Other things have to happen first.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited April 2020
    Alistair said:

    I keep mulling over writing a thread header to explain what is going on in the SNP for Sassenachs but I feel the effort reward ratio would be too low.

    But it is so fascinating, how Joanna Cherry, a woman who spent all her time from 2016 to 2019 dragging the British government through court over Brexit became the figure head of the SNP faction who thought the SNP spent too much time on Brexit and not enough on Indy is less than obvious.

    Have you listened to the last The Political Party podcast? Guest was Euan Mccolm. Absolutely fascinating - all about SNP shenanigans.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    eadric said:

    fpt For mysticrose

    I’ve had the same conspiratorial thoughts

    If it’s abioweapon, it is a perfect doomsday weapon. Easily transmitted. Scary and nasty. Survives on surfaces for days. A sneeze can send if 70 feet. No immunity.

    The idea is you’d make the virus. And also the vaccine. Vaccinate your own population. Then in emergency release it

    You, china, have the the vaccine

    The virus will not kill billions but it is bad enough to terrify the world and crash economies. So you become the global hegemon, handing out the vaccine, to supplicant countries

    But then the virus escapes prematurely, before the vaccine is ready.....

    I don’t believe this - but if i was writing the script that’s how it would go

    My honest guess is it came from the lab, by mistake.

    You should write professionally - that's pretty good.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    It's like this at work. Every day is crazier than yesterday, and likely to be crazier still tommorow.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,178
    I think its probably worth keeping an eye on this. Its a bit geek science but looks solid and updates each day.

    http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/#covid-eu
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    eadric said:

    guybrush said:

    Michael Osterholm (American infectious disease epidemiologist, and ex-US gov Bioterrorism advisor) was recently on the Joe Rogan podcast, and discussed the Wuhan lab conspiracy theory. His take that Corvid-19 was way too elegant, too sophisticated to be a man-made bio-weapon.

    So I tend to go with Occam' razor here. Brilliant conspiracy theory/thriller novel ground though, I admit.

    "Escaped from a lab" doesn't have to imply anything other than that the lab was doing research into coronaviruses. It could still be a virus that originated in bats.
    Yes, quite. That’s been my belief from early in feb.

    The fact there was a lab investigating bat coronaviruses just a few hundred meters from the fateful ‘wet market’ of Wuhan is too much coincidence to believe.

    So. It came from honest scientists doing honest research, but it leaked. Maybe a worker sold a Lab bat in the black wet market.
    Which is how Janet Parker died from smallpox, the last death from smallpox in the UK. It's a fascinating and awful story. The only reason it didn't spread is that they had a vaccine.

    It came about because the virus leaked from the lab. So this is a perfectly plausible theory of yours (et. al.)

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-45101091

    FWIW, the lab escape of a manufactured virus was widely believed by the Hong Kong money in January.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    HYUFD said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    MikeL said:

    nichomar said:

    MikeL said:

    If Boris couldn't continue, Raab would take over as PM in the short-term but there would then have to be a proper Conservative party leadership election.

    I doubt Raab would win that.

    I would have thought the final two would most likely be Sunak and Hunt.

    It would be sorted out by the MPs nobody sane would now have an election
    Oh sure - I agree it probably wouldn't go to members - but my point is it wouldn't automatically be Raab.

    At a minimum there would be MPs' votes.
    The Cabinet will select a replacement by agreement, probably Raab unfortunately. It would be months before that is put to any kind of vote as the UK would be in a national crisis of even greater proportions that we thought.
    And no matter how grave the crisis, there is no way we can have an election durinv lockdown anyway.
    Indeed, I am sure acting PM Raab, ably supported by Home Secretary Priti Patel can run the lockdown in the meantime while Sunak can keep the finances ticking over
    That pair could not run a bath....

    Run the country.... good grief!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Lay Dominic Raab. First, Boris Johnson will probably recover. Second, if he doesn’t, he won’t necessarily be the interim successor. Boris Johnson doesn’t get to dictate that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    Raab would take over in the interim as he is first in the line of succession, so the Queen would appoint Raab temporary PM within 24 hours (even if it had to be done online)
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    kinabalu said:

    If Johnson is unable to continue as PM the case for a GNU would be stronger.

    Yes I think the country will turn to Starmer.

    Amazing timing too - just elected today.
    I can't think of a greater insult to Boris than to replace him with that fucking mediocrity.
    I think kinabalu`s being devilish again. 80 seat majority. Plus country will turn to Sunak - Gove - Hunt - Hancock well before looking towards any LP politician.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    Don't beat yourself up about it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    BigRich said:

    isam said:

    Oh dear. Get well soon Boris. I feel genuinely sad about this.

    Regarding the Scottish CMO... I’m struggling to see what’s bad about someone travelling to their own house really, if they’re only with people who they live with in their other house. Maybe that’s not what happened, I’ve not really read it properly

    WRT Scottish CMO:

    I actually agree on the going to a second home, if you traval only with mebers of your own family bring your own food stay in the house when you get there and don't interact with anybody while there, then the risk of increasing the spread is probably minimal.

    But:

    What I don't like is the people setting the rules not flowing them. Those in power will fell less resistant about taking away freedoms and liberty of others if they do not expect to have to follow the same rules.

    While it might be argues that COVID is a spashale case, I think it is shining a light on an attitude an agagance, and its reminding me why I'm a libertarian and pushing me towards Anarchism.
    The thing is, safety oriented legislation is one size fits all. Here is an analogy: it would be perfectly safe for me to own an automatic assault rifle. In fact, because i am differentially safety conscious about guns, it would present far less danger to anyone than the fact that i own a car, a chainsaw and a couple of ladders. But nobody thinks it would be ok for me to exercise my own judgment about assault rifles.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,749
    edited April 2020
    Alistair said:

    I keep mulling over writing a thread header to explain what is going on in the SNP for Sassenachs but I feel the effort reward ratio would be too low.

    But it is so fascinating, how Joanna Cherry, a woman who spent all her time from 2016 to 2019 dragging the British government through court over Brexit became the figure head of the SNP faction who thought the SNP spent too much time on Brexit and not enough on Indy is less than obvious.

    The corollary is also the folk that were roaring about the SNP being distracted from the goal of independence by the GRA & trans issues now talk of little else other than trans issues.

    I've also yet to hear a vision of where we'd be now if the SNP had forced through some sort of wildcat consultative referendum for this year.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,178

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    This does make sense, the advice for being as in a good as state as you to take it on is the usual; rest, hydration, eat healthy.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    Anybody else finding it difficult to concentrate during these crazy days? Can't face subtitles, can't settle to a book. Gardening is about the only thing I can apply myself to at the moment.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    Raab would take over in the interim as he is first in the line of succession, so the Queen would appoint Raab temporary PM within 24 hours (even if it had to be done online)
    I think Gove might out manoeuvre him.

    Raab was seriously underwhelming the parliamentarians during the leadership race and Gove has been a more convincing stand in.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Yokes said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    This does make sense, the advice for being as in a good as state as you to take it on is the usual; rest, hydration, eat healthy.
    I think he needs to be told to stop working for a few days.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    edited April 2020
    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    No he doesn't. But given No.10 have made it be known he is the preferred successor one would think conversations between the Palace and the government on who would be best command the confidence of the Commons would be relatively brief.

    But they could indicate they wanted someone else to take over as PM. We talk about precedence and lines of succession, but the latter is not a formal thing.

    One could just as much argue that as Health Secretary and a Covid-19 survivor Hancock might be the best choice in that situation.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Anybody else finding it difficult to concentrate during these crazy days? Can't face subtitles, can't settle to a book. Gardening is about the only thing I can apply myself to at the moment.

    Absolutely. It’s all a bit much. Occasionally it’s important to tune in, but there is a limit.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    I do hope Boris makes a full and speedy recovery. Enforced rest will be no bad thing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,285
    BBC News Channel is very sobering at the moment. Interviewing Boris's biographer.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846
    FPT
    davidc said:

    GIN1138 said:

    dr_spyn said:

    MacMillan, Eden both hospitalised at some point in their Premierships for surgery and indisposed for a while.

    Blair had a heart murmur, Mrs Thatcher a cataract operation. Can't think of other PMs out of action due to illness since Eden.

    Didn't Churchill have a stroke in the middle of WWII (but no one knew about it at the time) ?
    I thought it was in his second reign as PM
    Churchill had a heart attack after finishing his speech to Congress on 27th December 1941. His physician kept it secret until after Churchill died in 1965
  • Jonathan said:

    Anybody else finding it difficult to concentrate during these crazy days? Can't face subtitles, can't settle to a book. Gardening is about the only thing I can apply myself to at the moment.

    Absolutely. It’s all a bit much. Occasionally it’s important to tune in, but there is a limit.
    That's exactly what they're aiming for: illiterate peasant workers. Beware of the lizards!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    At the end of the day we don't have a written constitution and legal line of succession here, regardless of who might be first secretary of state (which doesn't actually mean anything anyway). The Queen will appoint as PM whoever is most likely to command a majority in the Commons.

    That person isn't Dominic Raab.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    nichomar said:

    Did I hear correctly this morning that 5 LT bus drivers have died from the virus? The front line is more extensive than many perceive

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-52169002

    Three drivers, two controllers.

    Probably impossible to tell for sure whether people are catching it at work or through other means, but given what these people were potentially exposed to you'd have to put a pretty high probability on the former, sadly.

    There are quite a lot of low-paid jobs (HCA, social care, warehouse work, supermarket jobs) that we are really seeing the "social value" of right now and there's a lot of those jobs I really wouldn't want to do right now it if I was, say, fiftysomething and not terribly fit.
    Not just here either:

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1246194514466877446?s=09
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    Raab would take over in the interim as he is first in the line of succession, so the Queen would appoint Raab temporary PM within 24 hours (even if it had to be done online)
    I think Gove might out manoeuvre him.

    Raab was seriously underwhelming the parliamentarians during the leadership race and Gove has been a more convincing stand in.
    There is not the time for a mini leadership race at the moment, if Raab is first in line of succession it will have to be him, LBJ was sworn in as President to succeed JFK on the plane taking Kennedy's body back to DC
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    The choice is clear - Stanley Johnson.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    No he doesn't. But given No.10 have made it be known he is the preferred successor one would think conversations between the Palace and the government on who would be best command the confidence of the Commons would be relatively brief.

    But they could indicate they wanted someone else to take over as PM. We talk about precedence and lines of succession, but the latter is not a formal thing.

    One could just as much argue that as Health Secretary and a Covid-19 survivor Hancock might be the best choice in that situation.
    Kissing hands by zoom would be interesting.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Jonathan said:

    Anybody else finding it difficult to concentrate during these crazy days? Can't face subtitles, can't settle to a book. Gardening is about the only thing I can apply myself to at the moment.

    Absolutely. It’s all a bit much. Occasionally it’s important to tune in, but there is a limit.
    That's exactly what they're aiming for: illiterate peasant workers. Beware of the lizards!
    Eh?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    kle4 said:

    The choice is clear - Stanley Johnson.

    Dolby Johnson is the safer choice. Dogs are immune.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    Raab would take over in the interim as he is first in the line of succession, so the Queen would appoint Raab temporary PM within 24 hours (even if it had to be done online)
    Unclear whether BF would pay out in this scenario.
  • Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Anybody else finding it difficult to concentrate during these crazy days? Can't face subtitles, can't settle to a book. Gardening is about the only thing I can apply myself to at the moment.

    Absolutely. It’s all a bit much. Occasionally it’s important to tune in, but there is a limit.
    That's exactly what they're aiming for: illiterate peasant workers. Beware of the lizards!
    Eh?
    Gardening instead of reading.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    At the end of the day we don't have a written constitution and legal line of succession here, regardless of who might be first secretary of state (which doesn't actually mean anything anyway). The Queen will appoint as PM whoever is most likely to command a majority in the Commons.

    That person isn't Dominic Raab.
    I would not be so sure, Raab has worked the rubber chicken circuit well, the Tories have a majority of 80 and plenty of the new Tory MPs elected last year are diehard Leavers who would be sympathetic to Raab
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Stocky said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    Where is the value? Sell Sunak for next PM?
    Lay Raab but also lay Boris exiting this year. Which seems to be down near 5/1.

    If he lives (which is overwhelming likely) he won't be going this year with a majority of 80 and having just won an election.

    His chickens might come home to roost but not this year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Anybody else finding it difficult to concentrate during these crazy days? Can't face subtitles, can't settle to a book. Gardening is about the only thing I can apply myself to at the moment.

    Fortunately not with the book thing, I'd be going crazy.

    Sharpe's Fortress done today. That Ensign Sharpe is a maniac.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019

    Anybody else finding it difficult to concentrate during these crazy days? Can't face subtitles, can't settle to a book. Gardening is about the only thing I can apply myself to at the moment.

    I work all the time during the week and look after my daughter the rest of the time. I get about 6 hours sleep.

    That keeps my mind distracted enough.

    I cooked roast partridge with all the trimmings today too (with pear cider .. some in the meal.. some down my throat) which was another helpful distraction.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    I keep mulling over writing a thread header to explain what is going on in the SNP for Sassenachs but I feel the effort reward ratio would be too low.

    But it is so fascinating, how Joanna Cherry, a woman who spent all her time from 2016 to 2019 dragging the British government through court over Brexit became the figure head of the SNP faction who thought the SNP spent too much time on Brexit and not enough on Indy is less than obvious.

    The corollary is also the folk that were roaring about the SNP being distracted from the goal of independence by the GRA & trans issues now talk of little else other than trans issues.

    The two are indeed connected and is about how Cherry has built up her support base.

    Cherry's problem is that a significant portion of her supporters see her as a Salmond Proxy and with the court case dealt with they don't want a Proxy, they want the real thing.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    At the end of the day we don't have a written constitution and legal line of succession here, regardless of who might be first secretary of state (which doesn't actually mean anything anyway). The Queen will appoint as PM whoever is most likely to command a majority in the Commons.

    That person isn't Dominic Raab.
    I would not be so sure, Raab has worked the rubber chicken circuit well, the Tories have a majority of 80 and plenty of the new Tory MPs elected last year are diehard Leavers who would be sympathetic to Raab
    Rubber chicken?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    The choice is clear - Stanley Johnson.

    Dolby Johnson is the safer choice. Dogs are immune.
    Dolby? You mean Dilyn?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Jonathan said:

    Anybody else finding it difficult to concentrate during these crazy days? Can't face subtitles, can't settle to a book. Gardening is about the only thing I can apply myself to at the moment.

    Absolutely. It’s all a bit much. Occasionally it’s important to tune in, but there is a limit.
    Listen to The Queen.

    That both moved me and stiffened me up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    At the end of the day we don't have a written constitution and legal line of succession here, regardless of who might be first secretary of state (which doesn't actually mean anything anyway). The Queen will appoint as PM whoever is most likely to command a majority in the Commons.

    That person isn't Dominic Raab.
    I would not be so sure, Raab has worked the rubber chicken circuit well, the Tories have a majority of 80 and plenty of the new Tory MPs elected last year are diehard Leavers who would be sympathetic to Raab
    Rubber chicken?
    Tory dinners in MPs associations
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    fpt For mysticrose

    I’ve had the same conspiratorial thoughts

    If it’s abioweapon, it is a perfect doomsday weapon. Easily transmitted. Scary and nasty. Survives on surfaces for days. A sneeze can send if 70 feet. No immunity.

    The idea is you’d make the virus. And also the vaccine. Vaccinate your own population. Then in emergency release it

    You, china, have the the vaccine

    The virus will not kill billions but it is bad enough to terrify the world and crash economies. So you become the global hegemon, handing out the vaccine, to supplicant countries

    But then the virus escapes prematurely, before the vaccine is ready.....

    I don’t believe this - but if i was writing the script that’s how it would go

    My honest guess is it came from the lab, by mistake.

    You should write professionally - that's pretty good.
    I am not SeanT, obviously, but it’s worth pointing out that after 9/11 the White House brought in professional thriller writers and script writers, because it was felt they had an ability to foresee narrative and detect a story pattern, and predict outrageous events and the emotions driving them, long before intel agents.
    Were they responsible for all those shite Gerard Butler films?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    fpt For mysticrose

    I’ve had the same conspiratorial thoughts

    If it’s abioweapon, it is a perfect doomsday weapon. Easily transmitted. Scary and nasty. Survives on surfaces for days. A sneeze can send if 70 feet. No immunity.

    The idea is you’d make the virus. And also the vaccine. Vaccinate your own population. Then in emergency release it

    You, china, have the the vaccine

    The virus will not kill billions but it is bad enough to terrify the world and crash economies. So you become the global hegemon, handing out the vaccine, to supplicant countries

    But then the virus escapes prematurely, before the vaccine is ready.....

    I don’t believe this - but if i was writing the script that’s how it would go

    My honest guess is it came from the lab, by mistake.

    You should write professionally - that's pretty good.
    I am not SeanT, obviously, but it’s worth pointing out that after 9/11 the White House brought in professional thriller writers and script writers, because it was felt they had an ability to foresee narrative and detect a story pattern, and predict outrageous events and the emotions driving them, long before intel agents.
    The mystery of why the US came to the view that Iraq had anything to do with 9/11 finally solved.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Interesting. Thanks.

    Would you adjust for quality of care and attentiveness to revise those odds at all?

    Given who he is I expect he'll get a doctor and nurse near him 24/7.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    I’d lower that a bit. If Boris Johnson could have been treated in Downing Street he would have been. He will not be at the milder end of hospital admissions.
  • I hope ARP Warden Hodges is proud of himself pointscoring now

    What a prick
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Does being a jammy git increase the chances? I'd say so.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959

    Anybody else finding it difficult to concentrate during these crazy days? Can't face subtitles, can't settle to a book. Gardening is about the only thing I can apply myself to at the moment.

    I work all the time during the week and look after my daughter the rest of the time. I get about 6 hours sleep.

    That keeps my mind distracted enough.

    I cooked roast partridge with all the trimmings today too (with pear cider .. some in the meal.. some down my throat) which was another helpful distraction.
    Our local farm shop delivered two shoulders of lamb (we had only ordered one) so we slow-cooked both and delivered one to a couple of our neighbours. They cooked the veg to a timetable and I whizzed round with the piping hot lamb, gravy, mint sauce, redcurrent jelly and a nice bottle of red (oh, and a couple of slices of the famous loganberry bakewell for pud). Placed it on the door step - and the crumblies swooped on it once I had retreated. It was very fine indeed - as their incredibly grateful call a little later confirmed.

    We are jumping through all these hoops to protect these dear people.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    edited April 2020
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    The choice is clear - Stanley Johnson.

    Dolby Johnson is the safer choice. Dogs are immune.
    Dolby? You mean Dilyn?
    I know, autocorrect. But there was something lovely about Dolby Johnson, I had to leave it.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,047

    Jonathan said:

    Anybody else finding it difficult to concentrate during these crazy days? Can't face subtitles, can't settle to a book. Gardening is about the only thing I can apply myself to at the moment.

    Absolutely. It’s all a bit much. Occasionally it’s important to tune in, but there is a limit.
    Listen to The Queen.

    That both moved me and stiffened me up.
    Tmi.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    Raab would take over in the interim as he is first in the line of succession, so the Queen would appoint Raab temporary PM within 24 hours (even if it had to be done online)
    I think Gove might out manoeuvre him.

    Raab was seriously underwhelming the parliamentarians during the leadership race and Gove has been a more convincing stand in.
    If Boris has got to stand down (temporarily or otherwise) I think it'll be Gove who takes over (I'm not sure Raab would even want to take over in the midst of this)

    Failing that it should be Nadine as I said ten days ago! :D
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Thanks for that Foxy. Do you buy the "routine tests" line? Couldn`t they have done that in Downing Street?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Is blood group a factor? I read somewhere that group A is more at risk from Covid-19.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Thanks for that Foxy. Do you buy the "routine tests" line? Couldn`t they have done that in Downing Street?
    Not a doctor, but they might want an early CT scan of his lungs. A CT scanner is the size of a large car.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Interesting. Thanks.

    Would you adjust for quality of care and attentiveness to revise those odds at all?

    Given who he is I expect he'll get a doctor and nurse near him 24/7.
    I am not sure that makes much difference. Everyone in ICU gets their own nurse and plenty of medical attention. It is routine for the book to be thrown at these patients, particularly with low clinical Frailty scores. After that it is a roll of the dice, with the grim reaper on 6.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,959
    edited April 2020
    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    So the odds of Boris shuffling off are about the same as him coming up with a 1 on a single throw of a dice....

    Sobering.

    EDIT or a six for the Grim Reaper, as you have just put it....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Is blood group a factor? I read somewhere that group A is more at risk from Covid-19.
    Not sure about that, but I dont know his blood group.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Interesting. Thanks.

    Would you adjust for quality of care and attentiveness to revise those odds at all?

    Given who he is I expect he'll get a doctor and nurse near him 24/7.
    I am not sure that makes much difference. Everyone in ICU gets their own nurse and plenty of medical attention. It is routine for the book to be thrown at these patients, particularly with low clinical Frailty scores. After that it is a roll of the dice, with the grim reaper on 6.
    His jogging and cycling should make him fitter than the average 50s guy
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited April 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Thanks for that Foxy. Do you buy the "routine tests" line? Couldn`t they have done that in Downing Street?
    Not a doctor, but they might want an early CT scan of his lungs. A CT scanner is the size of a large car.
    They'll also be doing loads of tests to check heart, kidneys and liver as Covid-19 can apparently upset all of these...
  • eadric said:

    I’ve been following him for months. He has a kind of genius in his just-the-flu-ery
    Yes, stable genius:
    https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/1246892699753623555?s=20
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Is blood group a factor? I read somewhere that group A is more at risk from Covid-19.
    Not sure about that, but I dont know his blood group.
    See below:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    fpt For mysticrose

    I’ve had the same conspiratorial thoughts

    If it’s abioweapon, it is a perfect doomsday weapon. Easily transmitted. Scary and nasty. Survives on surfaces for days. A sneeze can send if 70 feet. No immunity.

    The idea is you’d make the virus. And also the vaccine. Vaccinate your own population. Then in emergency release it

    You, china, have the the vaccine

    The virus will not kill billions but it is bad enough to terrify the world and crash economies. So you become the global hegemon, handing out the vaccine, to supplicant countries

    But then the virus escapes prematurely, before the vaccine is ready.....

    I don’t believe this - but if i was writing the script that’s how it would go

    My honest guess is it came from the lab, by mistake.

    You should write professionally - that's pretty good.
    I am not SeanT, obviously, but it’s worth pointing out that after 9/11 the White House brought in professional thriller writers and script writers, because it was felt they had an ability to foresee narrative and detect a story pattern, and predict outrageous events and the emotions driving them, long before intel agents.
    The mystery of why the US came to the view that Iraq had anything to do with 9/11 finally solved.
    LOL.
    For some reason they didn’t foresee Trump, though.

    Up until last year, the US pandemic research program was helping fund research into zoonotic viruses around the world, and one of the sites they were collaborating with was Wuhan.

    Eadric doesn’t believe the conspiracy theory he lays out for our delectation, but he’ll continue to repeat it on a regular basis, I predict.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    Raab would take over in the interim as he is first in the line of succession, so the Queen would appoint Raab temporary PM within 24 hours (even if it had to be done online)
    I think Gove might out manoeuvre him.

    Raab was seriously underwhelming the parliamentarians during the leadership race and Gove has been a more convincing stand in.
    If Boris has got to stand down (temporarily or otherwise) I think it'll be Gove who takes over (I'm not sure Raab would even want to take over in the midst of this)

    Failing that it should be Nadine as I said ten days ago! :D
    My reading of it is that the Cabinet would be expected to come to a very rapid agreement on who it should be.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Am I bad person?

    The first thing I did on reading this news was to check Betfair, not BBC news.

    I'm still not sure what happens if Boris drops dead. Does Rabb defacto become PM and gets announced or does other things have to happen first?
    Raab would take over in the interim as he is first in the line of succession, so the Queen would appoint Raab temporary PM within 24 hours (even if it had to be done online)
    I think Gove might out manoeuvre him.

    Raab was seriously underwhelming the parliamentarians during the leadership race and Gove has been a more convincing stand in.
    If Boris has got to stand down (temporarily or otherwise) I think it'll be Gove who takes over (I'm not sure Raab would even want to take over in the midst of this)

    Failing that it should be Nadine as I said ten days ago! :D
    A line of succession has already been agreed, in the unlikely event the PM dies the markets would plunge, there would be nobody in charge of the nuclear codes and we would have nobody officially at the helm of a huge health crisis.
    A decision would have to be made immediately as to who the Queen should send for and if there was such opposition to Raab he would not have been given the post in the first place
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Is blood group a factor? I read somewhere that group A is more at risk from Covid-19.
    Not sure about that, but I dont know his blood group.
    See below:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v2
    This is the first observation of an association between the ABO blood type and COVID-19. It should be emphasized, however, that this is an early study with limitations...
    And further studies which support it ?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    Can’t help thinking this Johnson news is a bit more serious than is being reported. Being admitted to hospital sounds like quite a significant development.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Is blood group a factor? I read somewhere that group A is more at risk from Covid-19.
    The data I saw on that, the difference was apparently statistically significant, but didn’t look to be what the average person would say was significant. O was the best blood group to have.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Thanks for that Foxy. Do you buy the "routine tests" line? Couldn`t they have done that in Downing Street?
    Blood tests etc, yes. And pulse oximetry is highly portable. Oxygen could have been provided from cylinders if need, so I suspect Cest CT, or that blood and other results are heading in the wrong direction.

    Sometimes you just have to go with what the experts advise.

    Anyone know which hospital he has gone to? I think St Thomas's and Kings are both pretty busy at present. Perhaps Charing Cross or the Brompton?

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Can’t help thinking this Johnson news is a bit more serious than is being reported. Being admitted to hospital sounds like quite a significant development.

    Except that he is PM and his doctors will be extra careful.

  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    Can’t help thinking this Johnson news is a bit more serious than is being reported. Being admitted to hospital sounds like quite a significant development.

    Well quite. But looking on the bright side, when the NHS fixes him up and he comes home, he will be proof that the NHS makes a difference and he might be possibly a better PM.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,618

    Anybody else finding it difficult to concentrate during these crazy days? Can't face subtitles, can't settle to a book. Gardening is about the only thing I can apply myself to at the moment.

    I work all the time during the week and look after my daughter the rest of the time. I get about 6 hours sleep.

    That keeps my mind distracted enough.

    I cooked roast partridge with all the trimmings today too (with pear cider .. some in the meal.. some down my throat) which was another helpful distraction.
    Sounds like a great Sunday lunch.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,911
    BigRich said:

    isam said:

    Oh dear. Get well soon Boris. I feel genuinely sad about this.

    Regarding the Scottish CMO... I’m struggling to see what’s bad about someone travelling to their own house really, if they’re only with people who they live with in their other house. Maybe that’s not what happened, I’ve not really read it properly

    WRT Scottish CMO:

    I actually agree on the going to a second home, if you traval only with mebers of your own family bring your own food stay in the house when you get there and don't interact with anybody while there, then the risk of increasing the spread is probably minimal.

    But:

    What I don't like is the people setting the rules not flowing them. Those in power will fell less resistant about taking away freedoms and liberty of others if they do not expect to have to follow the same rules.

    While it might be argues that COVID is a spashale case, I think it is shining a light on an attitude an agagance, and its reminding me why I'm a libertarian and pushing me towards Anarchism.
    The optics are wrong. You can't really have well off people driving back and forth to their second homes whilst others are told they can barely leave the house. It would fuel resentment..

    Also even though in theory there is little risk our Spanish posters have told us people fleeing Madrid for their second homes have overwhelmed local medical facilities and spread the virus through the country.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    Calderwood seems to have resigned, to change the subject somewhat.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,575
    A tiger in the Bronx Zoo tests positive:

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1246922828386930688

    This thing does seems transmissible to cats. There’s no evidence, for now, of transfer from cats to us.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Jonathan said:

    Can’t help thinking this Johnson news is a bit more serious than is being reported. Being admitted to hospital sounds like quite a significant development.

    Well quite. But looking on the bright side, when the NHS fixes him up and he comes home, he will be proof that the NHS makes a difference and he might be possibly a better PM.
    Did he not think the NHS makes a difference? I can think of very few politicians who would say it does not. The issue has always been effectiveness of any plans regarding the NHS, not believing it makes a difference.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,043
    edited April 2020
    Having never heard of the new Shad Chancellor I downloaded an appearance at the despatch box.

    My quick take: she talks too quickly. Needs to slow down.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,949
    Nigelb said:

    A tiger in the Bronx Zoo tests positive:

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1246922828386930688

    This thing does seems transmissible to cats. There’s no evidence, for now, of transfer from cats to us.

    Do the US just have so many tests they can try them out on wildlife, or are the tigers at the zoo a priority group?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,084
    Nigelb said:

    A tiger in the Bronx Zoo tests positive:

    https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1246922828386930688

    This thing does seems transmissible to cats. There’s no evidence, for now, of transfer from cats to us.

    So the Americans have tests enough to use on animals now. Progress.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,069
    eadric said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One point my friends noted with the virus was that they needed to sleep sometimes for ~18 hours a day. That's the body trying to produce the antibodies to fight it. Absolubtely critical to rest, rest, rest if you get the virus.

    Very hard if you're PM.

    FWIW it's extremely unlikely anything will happen to Boris. He's fit, only in his 50s and will receive the very best care.

    I can only imagine he's been overdoing it.
    To work on it actuarily:

    Symptomatic disease in mid fifties: 1.4% mortality
    50% greater risk in Men = 2%
    Severe enough for hospital admission (around 20% of symptomatic cases) = 10% mortality
    Other risk factors are speculative as we do not know his medical history, but BMI over 30 by my eye.

    I reckon a ball park figure of 85% survival.
    Interesting. Thanks.

    Would you adjust for quality of care and attentiveness to revise those odds at all?

    Given who he is I expect he'll get a doctor and nurse near him 24/7.
    I am not sure that makes much difference. Everyone in ICU gets their own nurse and plenty of medical attention. It is routine for the book to be thrown at these patients, particularly with low clinical Frailty scores. After that it is a roll of the dice, with the grim reaper on 6.
    We don’t know that he’s gone to ICU though
    No, I think probably not yet.
This discussion has been closed.