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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the daily death rate edges closer to 1,000 YouGov finds str

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited April 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the daily death rate edges closer to 1,000 YouGov finds strong support for a unity government to deal with the crisis

63% of Brits support a national unity government for the duration of the #covid19 crisis – including a majority (54%) of Conservative voters https://t.co/rSTOdNTVxP https://t.co/5iT8aOkAai

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    First!
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    It isnt going to happen imho.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    ... and how many voters actually understand what a national unity Govt entails?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    edited April 2020
    What's interesting is that Labour voters are more keen on this than Tory voters. And Lib Dem voters are even more keen on it than Labour voters!

    Though I guess voters don't think strategically like us on here...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    It may seem a good idea to Conservative voters given Boris is off sick and we are assured by some that this does not matter and it is an impertinence to ask how long or what the arrangements are in the interim.
  • I can’t see any point in the idea. The most valuable thing the opposition could supply right now is critical scrutiny. This is not a war where the enemy needs to be shown a united front.

    Couldn’t agree more, but then again this is a government which insisted that Johnson was hale and hearty and goosing the nurses, just in case the coronavirus was monitoring BBC news.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited April 2020
    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    The worst formulated question in the history of polling because of course you'd support it if it existed. To gauge genuine enthusiasm it should have asked should we have a tory/unity/other government..

    And it would be more interesting if they had had the foresight to ask under Corbyn and ask again now.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    tlg86 said:

    What's interesting is that Labour voters are more keen on this than Tory voters. And Lib Dem voters are even more keen on it than Labour voters!

    Though I guess voters don't think strategically like us on here...

    LD voters have forgotten what happens in Coalitions? Dim or what!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    I can’t see any point in the idea. The most valuable thing the opposition could supply right now is critical scrutiny. This is not a war where the enemy needs to be shown a united front.

    I guess the counter argument is that, as in war, lots of political point scoring over the right strategy undermines both morale and the credibility (and therefore chance of success) of whatever we are trying to do.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,019
    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
    Yes, I mean the herd is the UK population and if 5% of us have now had it you'd expect most of that 5% to have some level of immunity to it in future.

    I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    ABZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    tyson said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
    Our family story tonight of my son in laws elderly father (87) is horrific as he falls every day, his catheter leaks, he has lost a stone, and is confused. He has four carers every day and my son in law and his sister have to go and check him when he falls before an ambulance is called and even then they do not want him in hospital and he is refused admission to a care home

    And to add to the agony he does not have covid and cannot understand why his son and daughter wear protective gear when they visit him, and his daughter has only just recovered from covid type symptons

    And I agree Tyson this evil virus will not be slain without a vaccine
    There is not going to be a vaccine. So the human race, as do all species, will adapt and work around the virus. Or learn how to treat it. Or gradually become immune.
    That's a terribly confident assertion around vaccines. What's the basis of that statement?
    It is more a working assumption. Better treatments are very likely. Vaccines less so.
    In other words you have no evidence whatsoever.

    Good to clear that up!
    You are right I have no evidence but it is notoriously hard to prove a negative. I do have some historical evidence to show that human life goes on even in the face of far deadlier pandemics without a vaccine. Our ancestors faced far more deadly pandemics without even knowing what vaccines were. The second plague pandemic (mortality rate 80% plus) lasted from the 1340s to the 1770s in Europe, during which time (between outbreaks) Europeans managed to cook up the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and the start of the Industrial Revolution. The 1918/19 H1N1 outbreak was followed by the Roaring 20s In our own time the far more deadly ebola virus, before a vaccine was developed, did not shut down life in Central Africa. It's ludicrous to suggest we will be locked down for a decade or more in the face of a virus that is horrible but, even so, has a very high survival rate in all age groups. Indeed, even the older people who bear the brunt of this, given the option of spending their last several years cooped up at home and taking their chances, most will likely mostly choose the latter. And the young will tolerate it even less.

    There's normalcy bias, but people tonight are displaying the equally damaging exaggeration bias.
    Normalcy bias is a myth, put about as cover for some of PB’s more egregious exaggeration.
    I wouldn’t describe it as a “myth” - but certainly many who spent their time catastrophizing about Brexit have moved on to COVID-19 as replacement displacement activity. When there are huge forces at work over which we have no control it’s an understandable reaction - and their accusations of Normalcy bias is easier than trying to defend their more catastrophic assertions.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    The argument for it is that scrutiny and challenge might be best done behind closed doors right now and that there is more administrative talent across the two parties than in either one on its own.

    Still not going to happen unless current government decides it needs it he political cover.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited April 2020

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
    Yes, I mean the herd is the UK population and if 5% of us have now had it you'd expect most of that 5% to have some level of immunity to it in future.

    I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
    Estimates seem to range from 60% to 80% depending on how infectious we eventually conclude it is. The scenario being not eradication, but a slow withering away with only sporadic local outbreaks.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    edited April 2020
    IanB2 said:

    I can’t see any point in the idea. The most valuable thing the opposition could supply right now is critical scrutiny. This is not a war where the enemy needs to be shown a united front.

    I guess the counter argument is that, as in war, lots of political point scoring over the right strategy undermines both morale and the credibility (and therefore chance of success) of whatever we are trying to do.
    I don't think that works though, the virus hawks and doves in the cabinet are already fighting it out in the press with anonymous briefings about ending the lockdown, and mixed messages from inside the government are much more likely to undermine compliance than criticism from the opposition.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718
    Good morning all. An odd Easter bunny hopping about here. GNU highly unlikely, IMHO, given the character of the PM and the general attitude of those close to him.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
    Yes, I mean the herd is the UK population and if 5% of us have now had it you'd expect most of that 5% to have some level of immunity to it in future.

    I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
    "Herd immunity" means that the herd is immune because a sufficient percentage of individuals are immune that fresh outbreaks no longer grow exponentially.

    It requires 1 minus 1 over R to be immune, where R is the average number of new cases produced by each case in the absence of any immunity in the population. So probably something like 60% if everyone behaved normally, based on R=2.4. (80% was the estimate of how many would have been infected if everyone had behaved normally, but that would have overshot the level needed for herd immunity.)

    But if some counter-measures remained in place, leading to a lower R, you would get a kind of temporary herd immunity at a lower level. For example, if counter-measures reduced R by a third, to 1.6, you would get it at about 40%.



  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    ABZ said:

    DougSeal said:

    tyson said:

    MaxPB said:
    The EU does not seem to have distinguished itself during this crisis. No doubt Tusk and Juncker would have achieved more than their replacements, or maybe not.
    They will be ready for the second wave, no doubt.....
    The second wave theory is nonsense....this pandemic is going to be this horrible invisible enemy...terrifying the shit out of, until we get a vaccine that could be years away....
    Our family story tonight of my son in laws elderly father (87) is horrific as he falls every day, his catheter leaks, he has lost a stone, and is confused. He has four carers every day and my son in law and his sister have to go and check him when he falls before an ambulance is called and even then they do not want him in hospital and he is refused admission to a care home

    And to add to the agony he does not have covid and cannot understand why his son and daughter wear protective gear when they visit him, and his daughter has only just recovered from covid type symptons

    And I agree Tyson this evil virus will not be slain without a vaccine
    There is not going to be a vaccine. So the human race, as do all species, will adapt and work around the virus. Or learn how to treat it. Or gradually become immune.
    That's a terribly confident assertion around vaccines. What's the basis of that statement?
    It is more a working assumption. Better treatments are very likely. Vaccines less so.
    In other words you have no evidence whatsoever.

    Good to clear that up!
    You are right I have no evidence but it is notoriously hard to prove a negative. I do have some historical evidence to show that human life goes on even in the face of far deadlier pandemics without a vaccine. Our ancestors faced far more deadly pandemics without even knowing what vaccines were. The second plague pandemic (mortality rate 80% plus) lasted from the 1340s to the 1770s in Europe, during which time (between outbreaks) Europeans managed to cook up the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and the start of the Industrial Revolution. The 1918/19 H1N1 outbreak was followed by the Roaring 20s In our own time the far more deadly ebola virus, before a vaccine was developed, did not shut down life in Central Africa. It's ludicrous to suggest we will be locked down for a decade or more in the face of a virus that is horrible but, even so, has a very high survival rate in all age groups. Indeed, even the older people who bear the brunt of this, given the option of spending their last several years cooped up at home and taking their chances, most will likely mostly choose the latter. And the young will tolerate it even less.

    There's normalcy bias, but people tonight are displaying the equally damaging exaggeration bias.
    Normalcy bias is a myth, put about as cover for some of PB’s more egregious exaggeration.
    I wouldn’t describe it as a “myth” - but certainly many who spent their time catastrophizing about Brexit have moved on to COVID-19 as replacement displacement activity. When there are huge forces at work over which we have no control it’s an understandable reaction - and their accusations of Normalcy bias is easier than trying to defend their more catastrophic assertions.
    Anyone in mind there? :smiley:
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    edited April 2020
    I don't think we should be too surprised by the knee-jerk reaction opinion as indicated by this YouGov poll. I suspect that the support for such a "National Unity Government" (whatever that means) is in large part the public's deep apprehension to Boris having become seriously ill and consequently the relative lack of confidence in those largely unknown cabinet ministers who have had to take the helm.
    For others,*cough* without actually mentioning names, they probably see this as presenting a possible opportunity to bring down a democratically elected government over the course of just a few months, as opposed to the five full 5 year Parliamentary term for which it was elected.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,066
    I cannot see the point of a GNU myself. What would it add, and which current cabinet members would make way for their opposite numbers?

    Some are already working constructively together. Hancock welcomed Ashworths reappointment for example, and a bit of individual cooperation in specific areas and attendance at briefings/meetings is perhaps all that is needed.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    I don't think we should be too surprised by the knee-jerk reaction opinion as indicated by this YouGov poll. I suspect that the support for such a "National Unity Government (whatever that means) is in large part the public's deep apprehension to Boris having become seriously ill and consequently the relative lack of confidence in those largely unknown cabinet ministers who have had to take the helm.
    For others,*cough* without actually mentioning names, they probably see this as presenting a possible opportunity to bring down a democratically elected government over the course of just a few months, as opposed to the five full 5 year Parliamentary term for which it was elected.

    It may also reflect the social reality that so many other ‘normal’ aspects of life have been put on hold, including even scheduled elections, that many people instinctively think adversarial politics should also take a break.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,066

    I don't think we should be too surprised by the knee-jerk reaction opinion as indicated by this YouGov poll. I suspect that the support for such a "National Unity Government" (whatever that means) is in large part the public's deep apprehension to Boris having become seriously ill and consequently the relative lack of confidence in those largely unknown cabinet ministers who have had to take the helm.
    For others,*cough* without actually mentioning names, they probably see this as presenting a possible opportunity to bring down a democratically elected government over the course of just a few months, as opposed to the five full 5 year Parliamentary term for which it was elected.

    Careful with that cough...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772
    IshmaelZ said:

    The worst formulated question in the history of polling because of course you'd support it if it existed. To gauge genuine enthusiasm it should have asked should we have a tory/unity/other government..

    And it would be more interesting if they had had the foresight to ask under Corbyn and ask again now.

    I think that with a question of the same form you'd probably find majority support for any government with halfway sane leadership, in the current circumstances.
  • Foxy said:

    I don't think we should be too surprised by the knee-jerk reaction opinion as indicated by this YouGov poll. I suspect that the support for such a "National Unity Government" (whatever that means) is in large part the public's deep apprehension to Boris having become seriously ill and consequently the relative lack of confidence in those largely unknown cabinet ministers who have had to take the helm.
    For others,*cough* without actually mentioning names, they probably see this as presenting a possible opportunity to bring down a democratically elected government over the course of just a few months, as opposed to the five full 5 year Parliamentary term for which it was elected.

    Careful with that cough...
    Don't worry, I'll keep it in-house.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    edited April 2020
    GONUs have been predicted many times over recent years - eg the financial crisis, the Brexit saga and now this. They have never come to pass and I can’t see why this time would be different (despite arguably being a more serious crisis than the above).

    Some reasons why this won’t happen:
    The government has a majority of 80 and can conduct government business.
    The Queen will not force the issue or intervene (see Brexit Saga).
    This has not happened in any other country dealing with this crisis, to my knowledge.
    What does it achieve? At the moment Labour are asking pretty sensible questions and the government are being scrutinised without appearing to be in crisis (despite the best efforts of the papers to portray it as being that way).
    The government is not split (as far as we are aware) on strategy. One key reason the National Government was formed was because the government could not transact policy, and the seriousness of the times called for a government that could.
    A war is a fight for national survival. It is much easier to argue for a GONU in such an instance. I’m not suggesting that this isn’t serious, but the fate of the country itself was at stake in, say, WWII.





  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
    Yes, I mean the herd is the UK population and if 5% of us have now had it you'd expect most of that 5% to have some level of immunity to it in future.

    I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
    "Herd immunity" means that the herd is immune because a sufficient percentage of individuals are immune that fresh outbreaks no longer grow exponentially.

    It requires 1 minus 1 over R to be immune, where R is the average number of new cases produced by each case in the absence of any immunity in the population. So probably something like 60% if everyone behaved normally, based on R=2.4. (80% was the estimate of how many would have been infected if everyone had behaved normally, but that would have overshot the level needed for herd immunity.)

    But if some counter-measures remained in place, leading to a lower R, you would get a kind of temporary herd immunity at a lower level. For example, if counter-measures reduced R by a third, to 1.6, you would get it at about 40%.



    On such evidence as we have, it looks to me as though (if our lockdown works in a similar way to the ones in Italy and Spain, but not quite as well) maybe 15% will have been infected when the first wave subsides. Perhaps twice that in London. If on top of that we could keep in place counter-measures sufficient to halve the R number, it might be enough to prevent another significant wave.

    I would guess a lot of economic activity could be normalised consistent with that, but I suspect it mostly spreads through people socialising, and I doubt enough people would be willing to forgo that over a longer period.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited April 2020
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
    Yes, I mean the herd is the UK population and if 5% of us have now had it you'd expect most of that 5% to have some level of immunity to it in future.

    I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
    "Herd immunity" means that the herd is immune because a sufficient percentage of individuals are immune that fresh outbreaks no longer grow exponentially.

    It requires 1 minus 1 over R to be immune, where R is the average number of new cases produced by each case in the absence of any immunity in the population. So probably something like 60% if everyone behaved normally, based on R=2.4. (80% was the estimate of how many would have been infected if everyone had behaved normally, but that would have overshot the level needed for herd immunity.)

    But if some counter-measures remained in place, leading to a lower R, you would get a kind of temporary herd immunity at a lower level. For example, if counter-measures reduced R by a third, to 1.6, you would get it at about 40%.



    On such evidence as we have, it looks to me as though (if our lockdown works in a similar way to the ones in Italy and Spain, but not quite as well) maybe 15% will have been infected when the first wave subsides. Perhaps twice that in London. If on top of that we could keep in place counter-measures sufficient to halve the R number, it might be enough to prevent another significant wave.

    I would guess a lot of economic activity could be normalised consistent with that, but I suspect it mostly spreads through people socialising, and I doubt enough people would be willing to forgo that over a longer period.
    If we reach such a point, it becomes possible to return to the government's plan A, with just enough social restrictions to keep the steady flow of critical patients below the capacity (local or national) of the NHS.

    I can however sadly foresee a lot of PTSD and other stress-related problems among health workers.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Here's another cautionary thought for herd immunity fans:
    Researchers in Shanghai hope to determine whether some recovered coronavirus patients
    have a higher risk of reinfection after finding surprisingly low levels of Covid-19 antibodies in a number of people discharged from hospital.
    A team from Fudan University analysed blood samples from 175 patients discharged from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre and found that nearly a third had unexpectedly low levels of antibodies.
    In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all.
    “Whether these patients were at high risk of rebound or reinfection should be explored in further studies,” the team wrote in preliminary research released on Monday on Medrxiv.org, an online platform for preprint papers.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
    Yes, I mean the herd is the UK population and if 5% of us have now had it you'd expect most of that 5% to have some level of immunity to it in future.

    I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
    "Herd immunity" means that the herd is immune because a sufficient percentage of individuals are immune that fresh outbreaks no longer grow exponentially.

    It requires 1 minus 1 over R to be immune, where R is the average number of new cases produced by each case in the absence of any immunity in the population. So probably something like 60% if everyone behaved normally, based on R=2.4. (80% was the estimate of how many would have been infected if everyone had behaved normally, but that would have overshot the level needed for herd immunity.)

    But if some counter-measures remained in place, leading to a lower R, you would get a kind of temporary herd immunity at a lower level. For example, if counter-measures reduced R by a third, to 1.6, you would get it at about 40%.



    On such evidence as we have, it looks to me as though (if our lockdown works in a similar way to the ones in Italy and Spain, but not quite as well) maybe 15% will have been infected when the first wave subsides. Perhaps twice that in London. If on top of that we could keep in place counter-measures sufficient to halve the R number, it might be enough to prevent another significant wave.

    I would guess a lot of economic activity could be normalised consistent with that, but I suspect it mostly spreads through people socialising, and I doubt enough people would be willing to forgo that over a longer period.
    iirc there is some debate over what R is for this plague.

    Wasn't there a paper the other day saying it could be 6-7?

    That gives more like 85% as herd figure.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Finally the govt realises work must go on and Raab will be chairing a review into the lockdown.

    As more sensible PB-ers advocated yesterday as others told us not to worry our pretty little heads about the democratic process.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,066
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
    Yes, I mean the herd is the UK population and if 5% of us have now had it you'd expect most of that 5% to have some level of immunity to it in future.

    I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
    "Herd immunity" means that the herd is immune because a sufficient percentage of individuals are immune that fresh outbreaks no longer grow exponentially.

    It requires 1 minus 1 over R to be immune, where R is the average number of new cases produced by each case in the absence of any immunity in the population. So probably something like 60% if everyone behaved normally, based on R=2.4. (80% was the estimate of how many would have been infected if everyone had behaved normally, but that would have overshot the level needed for herd immunity.)

    But if some counter-measures remained in place, leading to a lower R, you would get a kind of temporary herd immunity at a lower level. For example, if counter-measures reduced R by a third, to 1.6, you would get it at about 40%.



    On such evidence as we have, it looks to me as though (if our lockdown works in a similar way to the ones in Italy and Spain, but not quite as well) maybe 15% will have been infected when the first wave subsides. Perhaps twice that in London. If on top of that we could keep in place counter-measures sufficient to halve the R number, it might be enough to prevent another significant wave.

    I would guess a lot of economic activity could be normalised consistent with that, but I suspect it mostly spreads through people socialising, and I doubt enough people would be willing to forgo that over a longer period.
    A reliable blood test seems to be proving elusive, but that is what is needed if we are to be able to judge immunity. The frequency of symptoms is just not reliable enough. I was sure that I had it, but was swab negative. False negative or Coronachondria? Who knows?

    One more day to survive before the 4 day weekend. Rumours that even Admirals of the Yellow like myself are needed for the guns next week...
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    On the other hand, if it provides an excuse to get rid of Patel...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52224203
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    felix said:

    tlg86 said:

    What's interesting is that Labour voters are more keen on this than Tory voters. And Lib Dem voters are even more keen on it than Labour voters!

    Though I guess voters don't think strategically like us on here...

    LD voters have forgotten what happens in Coalitions? Dim or what!
    Maybe they are thinking of what is correct thing to do rather than just being selfish or dim.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    None are screaming, just asking the questions that need an answer, It is perfectly reasonable to ask what the exit strategy is.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    If i was in a flat with a wife and kids and not allowed out.. i think i woild be seriously stressed in a v short time....
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
    Yes, I mean the herd is the UK population and if 5% of us have now had it you'd expect most of that 5% to have some level of immunity to it in future.

    I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
    "Herd immunity" means that the herd is immune because a sufficient percentage of individuals are immune that fresh outbreaks no longer grow exponentially.

    It requires 1 minus 1 over R to be immune, where R is the average number of new cases produced by each case in the absence of any immunity in the population. So probably something like 60% if everyone behaved normally, based on R=2.4. (80% was the estimate of how many would have been infected if everyone had behaved normally, but that would have overshot the level needed for herd immunity.)

    But if some counter-measures remained in place, leading to a lower R, you would get a kind of temporary herd immunity at a lower level. For example, if counter-measures reduced R by a third, to 1.6, you would get it at about 40%.



    On such evidence as we have, it looks to me as though (if our lockdown works in a similar way to the ones in Italy and Spain, but not quite as well) maybe 15% will have been infected when the first wave subsides. Perhaps twice that in London. If on top of that we could keep in place counter-measures sufficient to halve the R number, it might be enough to prevent another significant wave.

    I would guess a lot of economic activity could be normalised consistent with that, but I suspect it mostly spreads through people socialising, and I doubt enough people would be willing to forgo that over a longer period.
    iirc there is some debate over what R is for this plague.

    Wasn't there a paper the other day saying it could be 6-7?

    That gives more like 85% as herd figure.
    Yes, there have been papers saying all kinds of things, and we need better information. But the consensus for R0 appears to be 2-3. Certainly it's clear that a lot of very bad science has been published on this subject. The peer-review process doesn't seem to work very well anyway these days, and a lot of the stuff that gets into the newspapers hasn't even been peer-reviewed.
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    What would Labour bring to the party ?
    They would want gender neutral names for the temporary hospitals.

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
    Yes, I mean the herd is the UK population and if 5% of us have now had it you'd expect most of that 5% to have some level of immunity to it in future.

    I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
    "Herd immunity" means that the herd is immune because a sufficient percentage of individuals are immune that fresh outbreaks no longer grow exponentially.

    It requires 1 minus 1 over R to be immune, where R is the average number of new cases produced by each case in the absence of any immunity in the population. So probably something like 60% if everyone behaved normally, based on R=2.4. (80% was the estimate of how many would have been infected if everyone had behaved normally, but that would have overshot the level needed for herd immunity.)

    But if some counter-measures remained in place, leading to a lower R, you would get a kind of temporary herd immunity at a lower level. For example, if counter-measures reduced R by a third, to 1.6, you would get it at about 40%.



    On such evidence as we have, it looks to me as though (if our lockdown works in a similar way to the ones in Italy and Spain, but not quite as well) maybe 15% will have been infected when the first wave subsides. Perhaps twice that in London. If on top of that we could keep in place counter-measures sufficient to halve the R number, it might be enough to prevent another significant wave.

    I would guess a lot of economic activity could be normalised consistent with that, but I suspect it mostly spreads through people socialising, and I doubt enough people would be willing to forgo that over a longer period.
    If we reach such a point, it becomes possible to return to the government's plan A, with just enough social restrictions to keep the steady flow of critical patients below the capacity (local or national) of the NHS.

    I can however sadly foresee a lot of PTSD and other stress-related problems among health workers.
    The government's Plan A was to achieve herd-immunity by means of a single wave peaking over two months! There was never any way the NHS would have been able to cope with that. I suspect the real point about "flattening the curve" was to try to get to herd immunity (say 60%) without overshooting to the 80% that the models suggested.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,066

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    Is it the same people screaming those contradictory things? Or has it always been different people?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    There was already virus effects in February. Possibly enough to cause a 0.1% difference.

    Self isolation didn't begin with the lockdown.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    edited April 2020

    I can’t see any point in the idea. The most valuable thing the opposition could supply right now is critical scrutiny. This is not a war where the enemy needs to be shown a united front.

    It probably needs both close consultation and support of the opposition parties on the principles whilst they remain inquisitive and constructively critical of the details and implementation.

    I think that's basically what we're getting now.
    Whereas, if they were all inside the tent pissing out....

    I can see no case for a GNU. (And the question is really framed in terms of if there was a GNU magically created overnight, would you take up cudgels agin it. The reading of this being something people are pushing for is wholly false.

    But a thread on it here was inevitable.... You'd think the LibDem cheerleaders might have learned their lesson about being a (very) junior partner in government, even one of "unity".)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    A unity government?

    Is that one led by Unity Rees-Mogg?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    I can’t see any point in the idea. The most valuable thing the opposition could supply right now is critical scrutiny. This is not a war where the enemy needs to be shown a united front.

    It probably needs both close consultation and support of the opposition parties on the principles whilst they remain inquisitive and constructively critical of the details and implementation.

    I think that's basically what we're getting now.
    Whereas, if they were all inside the tent pissing out....

    I can see no case for a GNU. (And the question is really framed in terms of if there was a GNU magically created overnight, would you take up cudgels agin it. The reading of this being something people are pushing for is wholly false.

    But a thread on it here was inevitable.... You'd think the LibDem cheerleaders might have learned their lesson about being a (very) junior partner in government, even one of "unity".)
    We are of course hoping Labour is dumb enough....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    Media are still losing their collective minds over this, more than any other group of people they are having a terrible crisis - and still don't realise it, probably won't until this is all over and they're left talking only to each other in their little echo chamber, while the rest of us have them on ignore.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 14,772

    There was already virus effects in February. Possibly enough to cause a 0.1% difference.

    Self isolation didn't begin with the lockdown.
    I think it's more likely to be a spillover effect from the Chinese shutdown.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sandpit said:

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    Media are still losing their collective minds over this, more than any other group of people they are having a terrible crisis - and still don't realise it, probably won't until this is all over and they're left talking only to each other in their little echo chamber, while the rest of us have them on ignore.
    So completely does the death cult have journalists on ignore that they spend about 6 hours a day wailing about them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    There was already virus effects in February. Possibly enough to cause a 0.1% difference.

    Self isolation didn't begin with the lockdown.
    I think it's more likely to be a spillover effect from the Chinese shutdown.
    Well indeed I'm counting that too as a virus effect.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    If i was in a flat with a wife and kids and not allowed out.. i think i woild be seriously stressed in a v short time....
    Totally agree. I was on here arguing it is madness to lockdown too soon because people wont stick it and indeed there will be massive mental health implications.

    As a full time carer I know what spending vast amounts of time stuck at home is like, and I am lucky enough to have a garden and a huge book collection.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    First relaxation in Spain on Tuesday next week with a range of workers being allowed to start work. Including construction and some domestic services I think.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    TGOHF666 said:

    What would Labour bring to the party ?
    They would want gender neutral names for the temporary hospitals.

    I agree with Casino and M Mark that it probably is better that there isn't a GNU. They managed to express it with reasons rather than nasty sneering.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
    Yes, I mean the herd is the UK population and if 5% of us have now had it you'd expect most of that 5% to have some level of immunity to it in future.

    I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
    "Herd immunity" means that the herd is immune because a sufficient percentage of individuals are immune that fresh outbreaks no longer grow exponentially.

    It requires 1 minus 1 over R to be immune, where R is the average number of new cases produced by each case in the absence of any immunity in the population. So probably something like 60% if everyone behaved normally, based on R=2.4. (80% was the estimate of how many would have been infected if everyone had behaved normally, but that would have overshot the level needed for herd immunity.)

    But if some counter-measures remained in place, leading to a lower R, you would get a kind of temporary herd immunity at a lower level. For example, if counter-measures reduced R by a third, to 1.6, you would get it at about 40%.



    On such evidence as we have, it looks to me as though (if our lockdown works in a similar way to the ones in Italy and Spain, but not quite as well) maybe 15% will have been infected when the first wave subsides. Perhaps twice that in London. If on top of that we could keep in place counter-measures sufficient to halve the R number, it might be enough to prevent another significant wave.

    I would guess a lot of economic activity could be normalised consistent with that, but I suspect it mostly spreads through people socialising, and I doubt enough people would be willing to forgo that over a longer period.
    If we reach such a point, it becomes possible to return to the government's plan A, with just enough social restrictions to keep the steady flow of critical patients below the capacity (local or national) of the NHS.

    I can however sadly foresee a lot of PTSD and other stress-related problems among health workers.
    The government's Plan A was to achieve herd-immunity by means of a single wave peaking over two months! There was never any way the NHS would have been able to cope with that. I suspect the real point about "flattening the curve" was to try to get to herd immunity (say 60%) without overshooting to the 80% that the models suggested.
    The BBC mentions a "Home Office scientific adviser" who apparently doesn't understand the difference between the herd immunity level and the percentage who would be infected in that single wave:
    On Tuesday, staff [at the Passport Office] were told by a Home Office scientific adviser 80% of people would get Covid-19 in the end and "we can't hide away from it forever".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52219930

    Perhaps a disturbing insight into official thinking - or lack of it.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I wonder if the pandemic will prove to be what stops the BBC from being attacked by the government .

    Regardless of what people think of the BBC for many it’s more trusted than any other resource and I think the Tories really will be playing with fire especially as the over 65s which is their strongest voter base might not take kindly to seeing the BBC sent to a subscription model which will in effect finish it .

    24hrs to save the NHS might be replaced with 24 hrs to save the BBC by Labour .
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    Foxy said:

    A reliable blood test seems to be proving elusive, but that is what is needed if we are to be able to judge immunity. The frequency of symptoms is just not reliable enough. I was sure that I had it, but was swab negative. False negative or Coronachondria? Who knows?

    One more day to survive before the 4 day weekend. Rumours that even Admirals of the Yellow like myself are needed for the guns next week...

    It's clearly troubling when you, at the heart of the NHS and with testing having been done, still aren't much the wiser as to whether your classic symptoms were it or not. How many folk out there who have had a rough week or ten days will be certain they had it - and then (wrongly) feel armoured against it come the next wave?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    Sandpit said:

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    Media are still losing their collective minds over this, more than any other group of people they are having a terrible crisis - and still don't realise it, probably won't until this is all over and they're left talking only to each other in their little echo chamber, while the rest of us have them on ignore.
    Nah the media have been instrumental at key moments. In particular, they helped turn the government away from its initial herd immunity approach.

    Today the key question the government needs to answer is what is the exit strategy. The government can’t answer it, because we don’t have an exit strategy. But the media must keep pressing the question.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    I can’t see any point in the idea. The most valuable thing the opposition could supply right now is critical scrutiny. This is not a war where the enemy needs to be shown a united front.

    Agreed. Politically both sides are not focusing on other crap right for, for the most part, and doing so is sufficient unity along with dialling back the more egregious partisanship.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,398
    TOPPING said:

    Finally the govt realises work must go on and Raab will be chairing a review into the lockdown.

    As more sensible PB-ers advocated yesterday as others told us not to worry our pretty little heads about the democratic process.

    "Morning all. Another 3 weeks?"

    "Yes"

    "Yes"

    "Yes"

    There's your review.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Foxy said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
    Yes, I mean the herd is the UK population and if 5% of us have now had it you'd expect most of that 5% to have some level of immunity to it in future.

    I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
    "Herd immunity" means that the herd is immune because a sufficient percentage of individuals are immune that fresh outbreaks no longer grow exponentially.

    It requires 1 minus 1 over R to be immune, where R is the average number of new cases produced by each case in the absence of any immunity in the population. So probably something like 60% if everyone behaved normally, based on R=2.4. (80% was the estimate of how many would have been infected if everyone had behaved normally, but that would have overshot the level needed for herd immunity.)

    But if some counter-measures remained in place, leading to a lower R, you would get a kind of temporary herd immunity at a lower level. For example, if counter-measures reduced R by a third, to 1.6, you would get it at about 40%.



    On such evidence as we have, it looks to me as though (if our lockdown works in a similar way to the ones in Italy and Spain, but not quite as well) maybe 15% will have been infected when the first wave subsides. Perhaps twice that in London. If on top of that we could keep in place counter-measures sufficient to halve the R number, it might be enough to prevent another significant wave.

    I would guess a lot of economic activity could be normalised consistent with that, but I suspect it mostly spreads through people socialising, and I doubt enough people would be willing to forgo that over a longer period.
    A reliable blood test seems to be proving elusive, but that is what is needed if we are to be able to judge immunity. The frequency of symptoms is just not reliable enough. I was sure that I had it, but was swab negative. False negative or Coronachondria? Who knows?

    One more day to survive before the 4 day weekend. Rumours that even Admirals of the Yellow like myself are needed for the guns next week...
    In the British Navy) a post captain promoted to the rank of rear admiral on retirement without having actually served at that rank; now historical Care to expand a little further?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,046
    We need an IMMunity Government. Led by corona-proof recoveree, Nadine Dorries. Deputy PM, Nadine Dorries' Mum.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    nico67 said:

    I wonder if the pandemic will prove to be what stops the BBC from being attacked by the government .

    Regardless of what people think of the BBC for many it’s more trusted than any other resource and I think the Tories really will be playing with fire especially as the over 65s which is their strongest voter base might not take kindly to seeing the BBC sent to a subscription model which will in effect finish it .

    24hrs to save the NHS might be replaced with 24 hrs to save the BBC by Labour .

    Really.. most people would be happy not to.pay the "telly tax".. extremely short sighted of course....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    It may seem a good idea to Conservative voters given Boris is off sick and we are assured by some that this does not matter and it is an impertinence to ask how long or what the arrangements are in the interim.

    Its not impertinence to ask but we were already told what the arrangements are and its silly to act like in the short term the interim arrangements are a confused constitutional mess when it isnt and silly to act like the answer was not clearly given.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    Sandpit said:

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    Media are still losing their collective minds over this, more than any other group of people they are having a terrible crisis - and still don't realise it, probably won't until this is all over and they're left talking only to each other in their little echo chamber, while the rest of us have them on ignore.
    So completely does the death cult have journalists on ignore that they spend about 6 hours a day wailing about them.
    If ever there was a more inapporpriate time to splash about your derogatory term "death cult"....

    Maybe try using it humourously in South Korea. See how well it goes down there.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    Foxy said:

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    Is it the same people screaming those contradictory things? Or has it always been different people?
    If it's on Twitter - they've probably changed position inside one Tweet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    IanB2 said:

    I don't think we should be too surprised by the knee-jerk reaction opinion as indicated by this YouGov poll. I suspect that the support for such a "National Unity Government (whatever that means) is in large part the public's deep apprehension to Boris having become seriously ill and consequently the relative lack of confidence in those largely unknown cabinet ministers who have had to take the helm.
    For others,*cough* without actually mentioning names, they probably see this as presenting a possible opportunity to bring down a democratically elected government over the course of just a few months, as opposed to the five full 5 year Parliamentary term for which it was elected.

    It may also reflect the social reality that so many other ‘normal’ aspects of life have been put on hold, including even scheduled elections, that many people instinctively think adversarial politics should also take a break.
    Which it without a unity government. But decisions on other matters will need to happen and there's not much call for unity on other stuff.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    edited April 2020
    One of the things I hadn't really realized is how much financial pressure US hospitals and clinics are under. They're actually laying off and furloughing staff (!) because they're having to cancel elective surgeries and because patient volumes have fallen.

    Rural hospitals (particularly in states where they refused to accept federal money to expand medicaid) are going to have to close. Absolutely bonkers.

    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/02/coronavirus-pandemic-jobs-us-health-care-workers-furloughed-laid-off/5102320002/

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/18/21142650/rural-hospitals-closing-medicaid-expansion-states
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    rkrkrk said:

    One of the things I hadn't really realized is how much financial pressure US hospitals and clinics are under. They're actually laying off and furloughing staff (!) because they're having to cancel elective surgeries and because patient volumes have fallen.

    Rural hospitals (particularly in states where they refused to accept federal money to expand medicaid) are going to have to close. Absolutely bonkers.

    https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/04/02/coronavirus-pandemic-jobs-us-health-care-workers-furloughed-laid-off/5102320002/

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/18/21142650/rural-hospitals-closing-medicaid-expansion-states

    And to think they complain about our socialised medicine and some want to see more private healthcare in the U.K.

    Talk about being in the wrong side of history.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958

    A unity government?

    Is that one led by Unity Rees-Mogg?

    Probably better that than one led by Unity Valkyrie Mitford...
  • TGOHF666TGOHF666 Posts: 2,052
    nichomar said:

    First relaxation in Spain on Tuesday next week with a range of workers being allowed to start work. Including construction and some domestic services I think.

    Good for them - but their cases and deaths are dropping - the govt here just have to sit tight until
    that happens here - hopefully next week.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    edited April 2020
    Mr Jonathan,

    Sorry, but the media have had a terrible time. I have a little sympathy for them - they have programme time and 90% of the newspaper to fill each day with Corona porn and the easiest way to do it is with U-turns, incompetence and splits.

    Unfortunately, this isn't normal politics. When you have expert medics and scientists fielding the questions, their ignorance is being exposed.

    I've seen the odd glimmer of hope. One or two of the female journalists seem to have mugged up on some of the basics. The men haven't bothered so much. I suppose the arrogance that comes with an arts degree stops them. This science thing is only messing around with test tubes anyway, it can't be that difficult.

    Come on, lads, don't let the side down. If the girls can do it, you can too. Even Kay Burley has reached 11-plus standard. But they still can't stop themselves asking "Have you stopped beating your wives?" questions and ignoring any answers.

    But as long as you stop burning down those 5G masts, it'll be a start.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    edited April 2020
    nichomar said:

    First relaxation in Spain on Tuesday next week with a range of workers being allowed to start work. Including construction and some domestic services I think.

    So perhaps we could allow construction work to recommence at the end of this month.

    No, wait ...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sandpit said:

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    Media are still losing their collective minds over this, more than any other group of people they are having a terrible crisis - and still don't realise it, probably won't until this is all over and they're left talking only to each other in their little echo chamber, while the rest of us have them on ignore.
    So completely does the death cult have journalists on ignore that they spend about 6 hours a day wailing about them.
    If ever there was a more inapporpriate time to splash about your derogatory term "death cult"....

    Maybe try using it humourously in South Korea. See how well it goes down there.
    If there’s one good thing about Covid-19 as opposed to Brexit it’s that the risks of death, pain and suffering are quite evenly distributed. The death cult were entirely happy to risk the lives of other people to secure carcrash Brexit. They still are: witness how mute they are in the face of the government’s continued insistence that the transition period should end, deal or no deal, on 31 December.

    Somehow when their own lives are at risk, they aren’t so nonchalant about the risks being run. Funny that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited April 2020
    TOPPING said:

    Finally the govt realises work must go on and Raab will be chairing a review into the lockdown.

    As more sensible PB-ers advocated yesterday as others told us not to worry our pretty little heads about the democratic process.

    I believe the point was that the situation is under constant review in any case in response to official advice but it was very unlikely any major decision was needed asl the lockdown is almost certainly not going to be relaxed right now, therefore it would not matter over much if a review was delayed.

    Conversely I remember making the point that if an urgent decision was needed on anything Raab and the cabinet could do it, and what do you know it turns out they can when others were saying the alternative arrangements could not possibly work.

    So I'm not sure what point you think you've made. You didn't need to worry about the democratic process as this decision shows it's working fine. The point about a review being delayed or not is separate and unless relaxation is imminent the point was it didnt matter if it was deferred a little, but again those saying Raab and co could make the call if needed were absolutely right and those flapping in a panic about non existent constitutional concerns were wrong.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    A tempting position.

    But I am against the cancel culture - and liking it just for your opponents it what feeds it.

    I think her losing her political job was right, and inevitable as Starmer wants to take back control (Ha!) of the Labour party.

    But to lose her actual job at a time like this? I can understand the position of a legal practise - they have the PR aspect of this to consider. But still...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    A unity government?

    Is that one led by Unity Rees-Mogg?

    Probably better that than one led by Unity Valkyrie Mitford...
    Hmmm.... would she have been in favour of HS2 or not? Discuss.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    nico67 said:

    I wonder if the pandemic will prove to be what stops the BBC from being attacked by the government .

    Regardless of what people think of the BBC for many it’s more trusted than any other resource and I think the Tories really will be playing with fire especially as the over 65s which is their strongest voter base might not take kindly to seeing the BBC sent to a subscription model which will in effect finish it .

    24hrs to save the NHS might be replaced with 24 hrs to save the BBC by Labour .

    The fundamentals of why the BBC is under threat have not changed however. A change to its funding or set up might be deferred at best I think.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620

    Sandpit said:

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    Media are still losing their collective minds over this, more than any other group of people they are having a terrible crisis - and still don't realise it, probably won't until this is all over and they're left talking only to each other in their little echo chamber, while the rest of us have them on ignore.
    So completely does the death cult have journalists on ignore that they spend about 6 hours a day wailing about them.
    If ever there was a more inapporpriate time to splash about your derogatory term "death cult"....

    Maybe try using it humourously in South Korea. See how well it goes down there.
    If there’s one good thing about Covid-19 as opposed to Brexit it’s that the risks of death, pain and suffering are quite evenly distributed. The death cult were entirely happy to risk the lives of other people to secure carcrash Brexit. They still are: witness how mute they are in the face of the government’s continued insistence that the transition period should end, deal or no deal, on 31 December.

    Somehow when their own lives are at risk, they aren’t so nonchalant about the risks being run. Funny that.
    I think you are being awfully hard on Remainers like Starmer - accusing them of being a "Death Cult"? True, their attempts at blocking Brexit were unfortunate in the end, and did risk a hard crash out, but really?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Definitely seems the right decision to extend the lockdown.
    It's working and we need to stick with it.

    I do wonder though whether the cabinet would have dared to go the other way with Boris currently in hospital. There must be a strong bias in the group not to make a big decision in his absence.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,704
    edited April 2020
    Is it me, or is it WAY too soon for Italy or Spain to even think about relaxing the lockdown. China was in lockdown for months and months.

    Isn't this thing just going to pick up again in case numbers?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    If i was in a flat with a wife and kids and not allowed out.. i think i woild be seriously stressed in a v short time....
    Totally agree. I was on here arguing it is madness to lockdown too soon because people wont stick it and indeed there will be massive mental health implications.

    As a full time carer I know what spending vast amounts of time stuck at home is like, and I am lucky enough to have a garden and a huge book collection.
    Yes, someone should write a book about the dynamics of lockdown (I'm sure they will). Living on my own, I find it fairly easy to adjust - I live in a small rented place, but there's plenty to do and, er, nobody telling me to do something else. Friends with partners and kids feel both more supported and more frustrated - the shared experience brings them closer together, yet the small irritations in almost any partnership assume much bigger importance. Mostly they say they're philosophical about it in the circs ("I'd rather be irritated than dead"), so I don't detect any great demand for restrictions to be lifted.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    A tempting position.

    But I am against the cancel culture - and liking it just for your opponents it what feeds it.

    I think her losing her political job was right, and inevitable as Starmer wants to take back control (Ha!) of the Labour party.

    But to lose her actual job at a time like this? I can understand the position of a legal practise - they have the PR aspect of this to consider. But still...
    I feel PB poll coming up .. shouod she have been sacked yes/no
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Is it me, or is it WAY too soon for Italy or Spain to even think about relaxing the lockdown. China was in lockdown for months and months.

    Isn't this thing just going to pick up again in case numbers?

    Wuhan was locked down 11 weeks. The rest of China, from memory, about 6.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195

    A tempting position.

    But I am against the cancel culture - and liking it just for your opponents it what feeds it.

    I think her losing her political job was right, and inevitable as Starmer wants to take back control (Ha!) of the Labour party.

    But to lose her actual job at a time like this? I can understand the position of a legal practise - they have the PR aspect of this to consider. But still...
    I hate the fact that sections of the left pile in to have people lose their jobs for opinions they don't like.

    Hell, an ex poster of this parish allegedly did this to another "comrade" on another forum.

    But if they live by the sword its fitting they should die by it too.
  • kle4 said:

    TOPPING said:

    Finally the govt realises work must go on and Raab will be chairing a review into the lockdown.

    As more sensible PB-ers advocated yesterday as others told us not to worry our pretty little heads about the democratic process.

    I believe the point was that the situation is under constant review in any case in response to official advice but it was very unlikely any major decision was needed asl the lockdown is almost certainly not going to be relaxed right now, therefore it would not matter over much if a review was delayed.

    Conversely I remember making the point that if an urgent decision was needed on anything Raab and the cabinet could do it, and what do you know it turns out they can when others were saying the alternative arrangements could not possibly work.

    So I'm not sure what point you think you've made. You didn't need to worry about the democratic process as this decision shows it's working fine. The point about a review being delayed or not is separate and unless relaxation is imminent the point was it didnt matter if it was deferred a little, but again those saying Raab and co could make the call if needed were absolutely right and those flapping in a panic about non existent constitutional concerns were wrong.
    Raab is the de facto PM and has the authority to make decisions

    The media tried to make a constitutional crisis out of nothing but that is par for the course for them

    The grown up position is simply COBRA are the arbiters in all of this and of course they include all the experts plus the devolved nations first ministers and London mayor. They will make the recommendations, the cabinet will rubber stamp it, and Raab will implement it

    It is all so clear and simple, but of course the media do not like an easy understood process and make themselves look ever so foolish by obscuring something that is easy to understand

    Simples.........
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    A tempting position.

    But I am against the cancel culture - and liking it just for your opponents it what feeds it.

    I think her losing her political job was right, and inevitable as Starmer wants to take back control (Ha!) of the Labour party.

    But to lose her actual job at a time like this? I can understand the position of a legal practise - they have the PR aspect of this to consider. But still...
    I feel PB poll coming up .. shouod she have been sacked yes/no
    No. It was right for her to lose her position as a public representative - ie Mayor - but she should not lose her job. That is too much no matter how offensive her comments were.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,620
    edited April 2020
    Floater said:

    A tempting position.

    But I am against the cancel culture - and liking it just for your opponents it what feeds it.

    I think her losing her political job was right, and inevitable as Starmer wants to take back control (Ha!) of the Labour party.

    But to lose her actual job at a time like this? I can understand the position of a legal practise - they have the PR aspect of this to consider. But still...
    I hate the fact that sections of the left pile in to have people lose their jobs for opinions they don't like.

    Hell, an ex poster of this parish allegedly did this to another "comrade" on another forum.

    But if they live by the sword its fitting they should die by it too.
    What was it that Ghandi (LLB, JBB) said? An eye for an eye will make the whole world blind?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Is it me, or is it WAY too soon for Italy or Spain to even think about relaxing the lockdown. China was in lockdown for months and months.

    Isn't this thing just going to pick up again in case numbers?

    Spain's proposed relaxation of their lockdown looks like it might make it similiar to our currently. There isn't much restriction on travel to work unless you're customer facing here.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884
    Floater said:

    A tempting position.

    But I am against the cancel culture - and liking it just for your opponents it what feeds it.

    I think her losing her political job was right, and inevitable as Starmer wants to take back control (Ha!) of the Labour party.

    But to lose her actual job at a time like this? I can understand the position of a legal practise - they have the PR aspect of this to consider. But still...
    I hate the fact that sections of the left pile in to have people lose their jobs for opinions they don't like.

    Hell, an ex poster of this parish allegedly did this to another "comrade" on another forum.

    But if they live by the sword its fitting they should die by it too.
    pretty much this.

    there's two ways out of this - both really obvious.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    The latest analysis of data from the COVID Symptom Tracker app, used by over 2 million people, shows the rate of new symptoms being reported nationally has slowed down significantly in the past few days. The latest figures estimate that 1.4 million people in the UK aged 20-69 have symptomatic COVID, a fall from 1.9 million on the 1st April.
    https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-isolation

    So overall herd immunity up to, what, 5%?
    Infection rate, not herd immunity, which is the specific case of a high infection rate.

    You’d expect it to be higher, because only two million are using the App and this will exclude many older people, and because people with symptoms are being added and deducted all the time even from a stable total. And you need to add whatever is the rate of asymptomatic/mild infection.

    On the other hand, there is the human tendency to imagine whatever symptoms are in the news.
    Yes, I mean the herd is the UK population and if 5% of us have now had it you'd expect most of that 5% to have some level of immunity to it in future.

    I presume it needs to get up to 80%+ or so for everyone to be "covered".
    "Herd immunity" means that the herd is immune because a sufficient percentage of individuals are immune that fresh outbreaks no longer grow exponentially.

    It requires 1 minus 1 over R to be immune, where R is the average number of new cases produced by each case in the absence of any immunity in the population. So probably something like 60% if everyone behaved normally, based on R=2.4. (80% was the estimate of how many would have been infected if everyone had behaved normally, but that would have overshot the level needed for herd immunity.)

    But if some counter-measures remained in place, leading to a lower R, you would get a kind of temporary herd immunity at a lower level. For example, if counter-measures reduced R by a third, to 1.6, you would get it at about 40%.



    On such evidence as we have, it looks to me as though (if our lockdown works in a similar way to the ones in Italy and Spain, but not quite as well) maybe 15% will have been infected when the first wave subsides. Perhaps twice that in London. If on top of that we could keep in place counter-measures sufficient to halve the R number, it might be enough to prevent another significant wave.

    I would guess a lot of economic activity could be normalised consistent with that, but I suspect it mostly spreads through people socialising, and I doubt enough people would be willing to forgo that over a longer period.
    If we reach such a point, it becomes possible to return to the government's plan A, with just enough social restrictions to keep the steady flow of critical patients below the capacity (local or national) of the NHS.

    I can however sadly foresee a lot of PTSD and other stress-related problems among health workers.
    The government's Plan A was to achieve herd-immunity by means of a single wave peaking over two months! There was never any way the NHS would have been able to cope with that. I suspect the real point about "flattening the curve" was to try to get to herd immunity (say 60%) without overshooting to the 80% that the models suggested.
    Could you point to the two month figure, because I don't recall seeing a specific estimate like that. I could well be wrong, of course, but there was a lot of talk about "flattening the curve" to stretch out the period which doesn't quite jibe with the number. I've looked, but possibly my google-fu has failed me.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,880
    Foxy said:

    I cannot see the point of a GNU myself. What would it add, and which current cabinet members would make way for their opposite numbers?

    Some are already working constructively together. Hancock welcomed Ashworths reappointment for example, and a bit of individual cooperation in specific areas and attendance at briefings/meetings is perhaps all that is needed.

    I could see why the government might want it in order spread around culpability for the incoming economic mayhem. The humble shitmunchers have had their attention spans reduced to single digit minutes by YouTube and aren't going to wear any excuses about pandemics when we are in year 3 of mega-austerity and going into a GE campaign.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    edited April 2020

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    All sensible questions from the media.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    TOPPING said:

    Finally the govt realises work must go on and Raab will be chairing a review into the lockdown.

    As more sensible PB-ers advocated yesterday as others told us not to worry our pretty little heads about the democratic process.

    "Morning all. Another 3 weeks?"

    "Yes"

    "Yes"

    "Yes"

    There's your review.
    They are holding a review in advance of the PM's return. As sensible types, and many journalists, said they ought.

    That some people are so freaked out that they are willing to suspend parliamentary process, scrutiny, and accountability is disappointing if understandable.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,846

    Sandpit said:

    This is getting more bonkers by the day. Media now screaming: tell us how the lockdown will end, when will it end, why can't you tell us when it will end.

    Two weeks ago: screaming - why are we not locked down now, why are we still allowed to go out of our houses, you must lock us all down now.

    I hope it will be recalled that the experts and Johnson and co, warned that we shouldn't start it too soon, because would get fed up of it after a few weeks.

    Media are still losing their collective minds over this, more than any other group of people they are having a terrible crisis - and still don't realise it, probably won't until this is all over and they're left talking only to each other in their little echo chamber, while the rest of us have them on ignore.
    So completely does the death cult have journalists on ignore that they spend about 6 hours a day wailing about them.
    If ever there was a more inapporpriate time to splash about your derogatory term "death cult"....

    Maybe try using it humourously in South Korea. See how well it goes down there.
    If there’s one good thing about Covid-19 as opposed to Brexit it’s that the risks of death, pain and suffering are quite evenly distributed. The death cult were entirely happy to risk the lives of other people to secure carcrash Brexit. They still are: witness how mute they are in the face of the government’s continued insistence that the transition period should end, deal or no deal, on 31 December.

    Somehow when their own lives are at risk, they aren’t so nonchalant about the risks being run. Funny that.
    I think you are being awfully hard on Remainers like Starmer - accusing them of being a "Death Cult"? True, their attempts at blocking Brexit were unfortunate in the end, and did risk a hard crash out, but really?
    Its not worth arguing with Alastair about this. He lives in his own blinkered little fantasy world.
This discussion has been closed.