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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Road from Glencassley – the last horse to win a UK race

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited May 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Road from Glencassley – the last horse to win a UK race

As we all know, Glen Cassley is about eight miles west of Lairg in the Highlands. Glencassley is also the name of the horse that won the 5.25 at Wetherby on March 17th, the last horse race run in the United Kingdom.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Naming horses after Highland geography can work wonders: see under Arkle, Foinaven.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    For a Tuesday (which is typically higher due to weekend catch up) that seems like good news does it not?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    For a Tuesday (which is typically higher due to weekend catch up) that seems like good news does it not?
    Yes. Very good.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Sorry but i absolutely don;t get why horse racing is of any interest at all.

    It's like watching cross country races from random amateur running clubs all round the country. Non elite, non-standard course length, competitors you've never heard of, variable standard, not even timed. What's the point?

    Like taking an interest in a random golf club handicap competition, but with a chance to lose money as well if that;s your thing. zzzzz

    sorry!
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    For a Tuesday (which is typically higher due to weekend catch up) that seems like good news does it not?
    Last Tuesday was 546 by the looks of it so a drop of a 1/3.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    For a Tuesday (which is typically higher due to weekend catch up) that seems like good news does it not?
    Last Tuesday was 546 by the looks of it so a drop of a 1/3.
    Continuing a trend that deaths are linearly falling by about 200 per eight days rather than a logarithmic decay.

    At this rate (not that I expect that) this wave will be over by the end of next week.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    For a Tuesday (which is typically higher due to weekend catch up) that seems like good news does it not?
    Yes, i thought the same thing. Great news seems to me - let`s wait for Paton`s graph..
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    Boris will surely use VE Day to announce a lockdown release goody?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    Who is this Strodge of whom you speak?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    isam said:

    Boris will surely use VE Day to announce a lockdown release goody?

    After rising on Easter Sunday, I wouldn't put it past him.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,287

    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....

    Have they taken into account the danger of people spreading the virus when taking off / putting on masks?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 39,756
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Boris will surely use VE Day to announce a lockdown release goody?

    After rising on Easter Sunday, I wouldn't put it past him.
    Not to over excite HYUFD, but it's traditional to shoot a few rebels after an Easter Rising isn't it?
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 2,705
    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....

    Have they taken into account the danger of people spreading the virus when taking off / putting on masks?
    Than what? Flush them down the loo? Hang them from a branch in the park?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Andy_JS said:
    This happens all the time. When I was looking after an internet-facing server we were getting thousands of failed login attempts per day, and we weren't doing anything as exciting as coronavirus research.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,780
    Sport is one of the joys of life and I miss it dearly. Can’t say horse racing is my thing but I feel similarly to @stodge about cricket and football. I have little doubt that getting these things back in some sense is going to be essential for the morale of the nation


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,724

    IshmaelZ said:

    Naming horses after Highland geography can work wonders: see under Arkle, Foinaven.

    Have you noticed how many F1 drivers are named after Scottish towns?

    Lewis Hamilton.

    Eddie Irvine.

    Stirling Moss.

    Ayr Town Centre.
    There's some sort of virus transmissable from Ydoethr?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Can horses transmit Covid-19? I'm aware that tigers can, but I don't think anyone's proposing to ride tigers (though it would be an exciting sport if they did).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited May 2020
    FPT:
    eek said:

    Endillion said:



    This is an odd line of attack, if your point is that the NHS should have let the tech industry handle things.

    It's not a line of attack - it's a statement that to me is obvious. In the headlong rush to get this app created my experience from 20+ years of working on IT projects tells me that its perfectly possible that blatantly obvious test cases will have been missed.

    Now I hope that isn't the case but given that the test case is the sort of thing testers might miss (and remember both Sandpit and I have reason to believe this is the sort of thing tests might miss) it's perfectly possible that it might have been missed.
    I'd go further and say that blatantly-obvious-with-hindsight test case scenarios pretty much *always* get missed.

    My quick 10-minute design for a small-scale test prior to IoW rollout.

    Venue: closed mall or cinema, 100% CCTV coverage.

    Number of volunteers: 50, none having had any prior involvement in the project
    Supervisors: 10, not involved in dev or QA roles but with an understanding of how the app should work to an end user.

    Instructions to volunteers: Bring a book. You will be in this area for several hours, every half an hour or so you'll go for a walk around and find a new place to sit down. Sometimes you'll sit close to someone else, or stop and talk to someone while walking. Don't touch the phone we give you, but put it where you'd normally put your phone. Write down your encounters with others on paper.

    CCTV room operators noting every interaction between people, and database engineers in same room noting DB hits (this is a centralised solution). Note all the positives, negatives, false positives and false negatives.

    Morning session - we provide the phones, all the phone apps, central web app, comms server and database are in QA/debug mode.

    Afternoon session - everything in 'production' mode, participants are given the app on their own phones and told to use them normally while repeating the experiment.

    End of day, take feedback from users about encounters and their own phone. Note things like battery life.

    Next day, review all CCTV, encounter notes and DB logs in real time replay, looking for things missed. Note from CCTV actual times and distances between people, and compare to values for same stored in DB. Set one phone to "COVID-mode" and test all phone responses.

    Refine time and distance scales to refine responses and alerts as required, repeat experiment as required.

    I could spend all day putting in more details, but there's a good starting point for discussion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Andy_JS said:

    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....

    Have they taken into account the danger of people spreading the virus when taking off / putting on masks?
    Than what? Flush them down the loo? Hang them from a branch in the park?
    Protects others if you have a mask on no matter how badly you handle it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Sweden likely had coronavirus cases as early as November last year, the country's virus chief has revealed.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288599/Sweden-probably-Covid-19-cases-NOVEMBER-countrys-virus-chief-claims.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    IshmaelZ said:

    Naming horses after Highland geography can work wonders: see under Arkle, Foinaven.

    Have you noticed how many F1 drivers are named after Scottish towns?

    Lewis Hamilton.

    Eddie Irvine.

    Stirling Moss.

    Ayr Town Centre.
    There's some sort of virus transmissable from Ydoethr?
    That attempt at spelling my name was u-less.

    Anyway, Lewis is an island :smiley:
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    DavidL said:

    Sport is one of the joys of life and I miss it dearly. Can’t say horse racing is my thing but I feel similarly to @stodge about cricket and football. I have little doubt that getting these things back in some sense is going to be essential for the morale of the nation



    The over 35s football team I play for were top of the league and in the semi final of the cup before lockdown. Very disappointing
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    malcolmg said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Gatwick will be done for shortly
    Like Prestwick?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    edited May 2020
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Naming horses after Highland geography can work wonders: see under Arkle, Foinaven.

    Have you noticed how many F1 drivers are named after Scottish towns?

    Lewis Hamilton.

    Eddie Irvine.

    Stirling Moss.

    Ayr Town Centre.
    There's some sort of virus transmissable from Ydoethr?
    That attempt at spelling my name was u-less.

    Anyway, Lewis is an island :smiley:
    And Hamilton is a town. :D
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Boris will surely use VE Day to announce a lockdown release goody?

    After rising on Easter Sunday, I wouldn't put it past him.
    Massive opportunity for tub thumping Churchill style PR. I reckon he’ll come up with something
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:



    This is an odd line of attack, if your point is that the NHS should have let the tech industry handle things.

    It's not a line of attack - it's a statement that to me is obvious. In the headlong rush to get this app created my experience from 20+ years of working on IT projects tells me that its perfectly possible that blatantly obvious test cases will have been missed.

    Now I hope that isn't the case but given that the test case is the sort of thing testers might miss (and remember both Sandpit and I have reason to believe this is the sort of thing tests might miss) it's perfectly possible that it might have been missed.
    I'd go further and say that blatantly-obvious-with-hindsight test case scenarios pretty much *always* get missed.

    My quick 10-minute design for a small-scale test prior to IoW rollout.

    Venue: closed mall or cinema, 100% CCTV coverage.

    Number of volunteers: 50, none having had any prior involvement in the project
    Supervisors: 10, not involved in dev or QA roles but with an understanding of how the app should work to an end user.

    Instructions to volunteers: Bring a book. You will be in this area for several hours, every half an hour or so you'll go for a walk around and find a new place to sit down. Sometimes you'll sit close to someone else, or stop and talk to someone while walking. Don't touch the phone we give you, but put it where you'd normally put your phone.

    CCTV room operators noting every interaction between people, and database engineers in same room noting DB hits (this is a centralised solution). Note all the positives, negatives, false positives and false negatives.

    Morning session - we provide the phones, all the phone apps, central web app, comms server and database are in QA/debug mode.

    Afternoon session - everything in 'production' mode, participants are given the app on their own phones and told to use them normally while repeating the experiment.

    Next day, review all CCTV and DB logs in real time replay, looking for things missed. Note from CCTV actual times and distances between people, and compare to values for same stored in DB. Set one phone to "COVID-mode" and test all phone responses.

    Refine time and distance scales to refine responses and alerts as required, repeat experiment as required.

    I could spend all day putting in more details, but there's a good starting point for discussion.
    I'm not going to add to that except one observation - please remember it's a lot easier to create tests when you are an innocent 3rd party looking into the project compared to when you are working on the project.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Naming horses after Highland geography can work wonders: see under Arkle, Foinaven.

    Have you noticed how many F1 drivers are named after Scottish towns?

    Lewis Hamilton.

    Eddie Irvine.

    Stirling Moss.

    Ayr Town Centre.
    There's some sort of virus transmissable from Ydoethr?
    That attempt at spelling my name was u-less.

    Anyway, Lewis is an island :smiley:
    And Hamilton is a town. :D
    Shhh! I’m trying to confuse TSE here...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    A question being asked in many households this week I think...

    https://twitter.com/kirsty11e/status/1257619634913714176?s=20
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535

    Sweden likely had coronavirus cases as early as November last year, the country's virus chief has revealed.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288599/Sweden-probably-Covid-19-cases-NOVEMBER-countrys-virus-chief-claims.html

    So with all these early case reports in Europe, and the earliest symptomatic case in China being 1st December with no known connection to the wet market, surely we can now give up the idea that the wet market was the source? It looks to have been no more than the earliest cluster.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797

    malcolmg said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Gatwick will be done for shortly
    Like Prestwick?
    Yep, we need to see what Easyjet do but two of it's three scheduled airlines and the ones providing the more premium passenger have both left.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Can horses transmit Covid-19? I'm aware that tigers can, but I don't think anyone's proposing to ride tigers (though it would be an exciting sport if they did).

    Those at our (shared, DIY) yard haven't transmitted it.
    Tack could be a vector and so could horse hair same as any other surface.
    The biggest risk at our yard when following guidelines, I always considered to be the shared tap.
    We mucked out our friends horses after they immediately realised they had the virus for a week or so, just stuck to three rules.

    i) Don't touch your face at the yard.
    ii) Wash hands after you're done, particularly after using the tap.
    iii) Socially distance from others.

    No transmission during the "in" (Lasts Nov to May) period at the stables. Didn't bother with a mask at any point as you're outdoors.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,620
    Extremely low for a Tuesday? Usually it's the worst day by far.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    glw said:

    Sweden likely had coronavirus cases as early as November last year, the country's virus chief has revealed.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288599/Sweden-probably-Covid-19-cases-NOVEMBER-countrys-virus-chief-claims.html

    So with all these early case reports in Europe, and the earliest symptomatic case in China being 1st December with no known connection to the wet market, surely we can now give up the idea that the wet market was the source? It looks to have been no more than the earliest cluster.
    Are China even holding the line on December being the earliest? There are leaked documents that were published in South China Morning Post showing case from Mid November.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....

    Marginal but positive sounds about right, given most people don't handle them correctly.

    Massive negative effect if the public start hoarding them while there's a supply shortage for medical workers though.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Naming horses after Highland geography can work wonders: see under Arkle, Foinaven.

    Have you noticed how many F1 drivers are named after Scottish towns?

    Lewis Hamilton.

    Eddie Irvine.

    Stirling Moss.

    Ayr Town Centre.
    There's some sort of virus transmissable from Ydoethr?
    That attempt at spelling my name was u-less.

    Anyway, Lewis is an island :smiley:
    No man is an Island - I'm Donne commenting ...for now!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    DavidL said:

    Sport is one of the joys of life and I miss it dearly. Can’t say horse racing is my thing but I feel similarly to @stodge about cricket and football. I have little doubt that getting these things back in some sense is going to be essential for the morale of the nation


    Football is the reason for living for many. Tempt folk out of their lockdown hidey-holes with "Go back to work and we`ll give you your footy back"?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Can't imagine why it hasn't been widely reported.....

    https://twitter.com/BrianCathcart/status/1257606684144480257?s=20
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    isam said:

    RobD said:

    isam said:

    Boris will surely use VE Day to announce a lockdown release goody?

    After rising on Easter Sunday, I wouldn't put it past him.
    Massive opportunity for tub thumping Churchill style PR. I reckon he’ll come up with something
    We will track them on the beaches... and in the streets.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited May 2020
    Sandpit said:

    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....

    Marginal but positive sounds about right, given most people don't handle them correctly.

    Massive negative effect if the public start hoarding them while there's a supply shortage for medical workers though.
    Is there a reason why we shouldn't just go to using respiratory masks (which are reusable), rather than going through millions of disposable ones? Yes the outside needs cleaning carefully, but you only need to change the filters on those every few months.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Can't imagine why it hasn't been widely reported.....

    https://twitter.com/BrianCathcart/status/1257606684144480257?s=20

    Oh dear. About time we stopped newspapers` VAT-exemption?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited May 2020
    Not just Gatwick Virgin is exiting - the 747s are going too.....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1257644081024466944?s=20

    This is like the 1973 oil crisis - many until then still viable passenger liners started making one way trips to the breakers and the trans Atlantic liner service was left with one ship sailing (which survived another 30 years...) - the QE2.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Extremely low for a Tuesday? Usually it's the worst day by far.
    In Spain the numbers are falling steadily now - in my little area there are zero cases and the whole health zone has had no new cases for two weeks now. The whole province has under 200 active cases.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Not announcing things in the House and apologising for not doing so might as well be a part of our constitutional settlement now.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,667
    Why should i be a blip? The SW is attractive for walkers, cyclists, second home-owners.... They don´t care overmuch if they bring their infection with them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Pulpstar said:

    Councils definitely need a shake up from the top down, starting with everything moving to a unitary rather than the crackers county/district system.

    Definitely. Councils actually did very well with the level of cuts they had to face (there definitely was wastage) but there are still shakeups that would help and I haven’t found arguments for retaining country/districts particularly compelling.
    Scott_xP said:
    That’s an astoundingly stupid headline that I suspect before reading it will undermine earned criticism of the government in the article itself (often happens given headlines may be written by others). We’ll see.
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    BigRich posted an interesting comment about why Sweden has probably done the right thing, and nearly all of the replies were to do with a grammar dispute.

    Sometimes people do not seem willing to engage in sciientific discussion on this site.The graph yesterday showing that the R figure was below 1 before the lockdown and that the reduction coincided with the hand washing advice I thought was really striking. Yet alI I got was abuse for discussing it and no one seemed interested in it. If science does not agree with someones opinion then it seems it is not worthy.

    https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1257303355199635456?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed&ref_url=https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/8673/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-covid-19-it-s-not-your-fault/p1
    Very good point Nerys.

    The thing is that the long lockdowners cannot be wrong, whatever the evidence against them.

    If they are wrong, then that is tantamount to admitting they have, in effect, been amongst the biggest and most gullible dupes in history. They would be right up there with those who maintained that Stalin did not know about the purges and the gulags, and if he did would have stopped them immediately.
    No one seemed interested in it? We've been discussing that plot for two days. The methodology behind it is questionable, and the official advice was the R was between 2 and 3 on the day the lockdown was announced. Anyone can make a plot on the internet these days, it doesn't make it right.
    It doesn’t?! Crap, that was such a timesaver for me.

    You’ll be telling me memes aren’t facts next.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:



    This is an odd line of attack, if your point is that the NHS should have let the tech industry handle things.

    It's not a line of attack - it's a statement that to me is obvious. In the headlong rush to get this app created my experience from 20+ years of working on IT projects tells me that its perfectly possible that blatantly obvious test cases will have been missed.

    Now I hope that isn't the case but given that the test case is the sort of thing testers might miss (and remember both Sandpit and I have reason to believe this is the sort of thing tests might miss) it's perfectly possible that it might have been missed.
    I'd go further and say that blatantly-obvious-with-hindsight test case scenarios pretty much *always* get missed.

    My quick 10-minute design for a small-scale test prior to IoW rollout.

    Venue: closed mall or cinema, 100% CCTV coverage.

    Number of volunteers: 50, none having had any prior involvement in the project
    Supervisors: 10, not involved in dev or QA roles but with an understanding of how the app should work to an end user.

    Instructions to volunteers: Bring a book. You will be in this area for several hours, every half an hour or so you'll go for a walk around and find a new place to sit down. Sometimes you'll sit close to someone else, or stop and talk to someone while walking. Don't touch the phone we give you, but put it where you'd normally put your phone.

    CCTV room operators noting every interaction between people, and database engineers in same room noting DB hits (this is a centralised solution). Note all the positives, negatives, false positives and false negatives.

    Morning session - we provide the phones, all the phone apps, central web app, comms server and database are in QA/debug mode.

    Afternoon session - everything in 'production' mode, participants are given the app on their own phones and told to use them normally while repeating the experiment.

    Next day, review all CCTV and DB logs in real time replay, looking for things missed. Note from CCTV actual times and distances between people, and compare to values for same stored in DB. Set one phone to "COVID-mode" and test all phone responses.

    Refine time and distance scales to refine responses and alerts as required, repeat experiment as required.

    I could spend all day putting in more details, but there's a good starting point for discussion.
    I'm not going to add to that except one observation - please remember it's a lot easier to create tests when you are an innocent 3rd party looking into the project compared to when you are working on the project.
    Oh indeed. Most of the more obvious testing failures come from the fact that everyone knows how it is *supposed* to work, so there's a huge confirmation bias. Most of the test failures are likely false negatives and corner cases.

    Which is why your analysts devising tests should be working from the approved written spec of the product, and not talking to the dev team! :D

    The obvious bit I missed was that one area of the test building should be a dead spot for mobile reception, to test queuing of data packet transmission in both directions.
  • BannedinnParisBannedinnParis Posts: 1,884

    Can't imagine why it hasn't been widely reported.....

    https://twitter.com/BrianCathcart/status/1257606684144480257?s=20

    low, and falling fast.

    And I was told, nay, PROMISED on here that it was just them asking questions that the government didn't want to answer.

    LOLies.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Can horses transmit Covid-19? I'm aware that tigers can, but I don't think anyone's proposing to ride tigers (though it would be an exciting sport if they did).

    Mate of mine was captain of the English elephant polo team.

    Also of the English ice cricket team.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    Can't imagine why it hasn't been widely reported.....

    https://twitter.com/BrianCathcart/status/1257606684144480257?s=20


    Large amounts of neutral views on the press in Malta
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    isam said:

    Boris will surely use VE Day to announce a lockdown release goody?

    Garden centres as a minimum?

    "Dig for victory"......
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    edited May 2020
    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Naming horses after Highland geography can work wonders: see under Arkle, Foinaven.

    Have you noticed how many F1 drivers are named after Scottish towns?

    Lewis Hamilton.

    Eddie Irvine.

    Stirling Moss.

    Ayr Town Centre.
    There's some sort of virus transmissable from Ydoethr?
    That attempt at spelling my name was u-less.

    Anyway, Lewis is an island :smiley:
    No man is an Island - I'm Donne commenting ...for now!
    Not bad, but you’ll get better as you get Uist to it.
  • coachcoach Posts: 250
    The biggest obstacle to getting horse racing back on is the doom mongers who don't want to see anybody enjoying themselves. Ever again
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....

    Marginal but positive sounds about right, given most people don't handle them correctly.

    Massive negative effect if the public start hoarding them while there's a supply shortage for medical workers though.
    Is there a reason why we shouldn't just go to using respiratory masks (which are reusable), rather than going through millions of disposable ones? Yes the outside needs cleaning carefully, but you only need to change the filters on those every few months.
    The FFP2/N95 respirators (Which @Eadric got very excited when I showed him a picture) I have were very easy to get hold of a while ago, doubt that is the case now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....

    Marginal but positive sounds about right, given most people don't handle them correctly.

    Massive negative effect if the public start hoarding them while there's a supply shortage for medical workers though.
    Is there a reason why we shouldn't just go to using respiratory masks (which are reusable), rather than going through millions of disposable ones? Yes the outside needs cleaning carefully, but you only need to change the filters on those every few months.
    None at all.
    Modelling shows that even a masks that are only 20% effective in filtering out virus significantly lower the rate of transmission (and most are better than that).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....

    Marginal but positive sounds about right, given most people don't handle them correctly.

    Massive negative effect if the public start hoarding them while there's a supply shortage for medical workers though.
    Is there a reason why we shouldn't just go to using respiratory masks (which are reusable), rather than going through millions of disposable ones? Yes the outside needs cleaning carefully, but you only need to change the filters on those every few months.
    The FFP2/N95 respirators (Which @Eadric got very excited when I showed him a picture) I have were very easy to get hold of a while ago, doubt that is the case now.
    They are still short term use though right? I was talking about the reusable respirator masks that have interchangeable filters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    That’s an astoundingly stupid headline that I suspect before reading it will undermine earned criticism of the government in the article itself (often happens given headlines may be written by others). We’ll see.
    Really? Looks fair enough to me.

    Unless you think puppets are going to object.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,257
    On sport... Just saw a headline on BBC news saying 'coronavirus could cost ECB £380m' and thought surely that should be billions for the European Central Bank - millions a rounding error.

    Turns out it was the other ECB, the cricket one.
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 363

    Extremely low for a Tuesday? Usually it's the worst day by far.
    I think yesterday was a Bank Holiday. There might be some resulting late reporting, so the updated figures later in the week should clarify this.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684
    DavidL said:

    Sport is one of the joys of life and I miss it dearly. Can’t say horse racing is my thing but I feel similarly to @stodge about cricket and football. I have little doubt that getting these things back in some sense is going to be essential for the morale of the nation


    I certainly miss the football and the horses
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    fox327 said:

    Extremely low for a Tuesday? Usually it's the worst day by far.
    I think yesterday was a Bank Holiday. There might be some resulting late reporting, so the updated figures later in the week should clarify this.
    It wasn't.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....

    Marginal but positive sounds about right, given most people don't handle them correctly.

    Massive negative effect if the public start hoarding them while there's a supply shortage for medical workers though.
    Is there a reason why we shouldn't just go to using respiratory masks (which are reusable), rather than going through millions of disposable ones? Yes the outside needs cleaning carefully, but you only need to change the filters on those every few months.
    The FFP2/N95 respirators (Which @Eadric got very excited when I showed him a picture) I have were very easy to get hold of a while ago, doubt that is the case now.
    Eadric bought them all
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    fox327 said:

    Extremely low for a Tuesday? Usually it's the worst day by far.
    I think yesterday was a Bank Holiday. There might be some resulting late reporting, so the updated figures later in the week should clarify this.
    No it wasn’t. Friday is the bank holiday.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....

    Marginal but positive sounds about right, given most people don't handle them correctly.

    Massive negative effect if the public start hoarding them while there's a supply shortage for medical workers though.
    Is there a reason why we shouldn't just go to using respiratory masks (which are reusable), rather than going through millions of disposable ones? Yes the outside needs cleaning carefully, but you only need to change the filters on those every few months.
    Good question. I would assume either suitability for this particular virus (inc user training), or supply chain issues with asking 60m people to wear them.

    I think most of us on here are the types that would research how to use stuff with which we are not familiar, forgetting that the vast majority of the rest of the public are unlikely to do so.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,082

    Sweden likely had coronavirus cases as early as November last year, the country's virus chief has revealed.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288599/Sweden-probably-Covid-19-cases-NOVEMBER-countrys-virus-chief-claims.html

    Though according to that article the first Swedish case testing positive was at end Jan.

    Interesting that the Feench test positive case on Dec 27th had no history of travel or connection with China. I presume they have excluded a false positive, but it does muddy the waters considerably.
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    eek said:

    Endillion said:



    This is an odd line of attack, if your point is that the NHS should have let the tech industry handle things.

    It's not a line of attack - it's a statement that to me is obvious. In the headlong rush to get this app created my experience from 20+ years of working on IT projects tells me that its perfectly possible that blatantly obvious test cases will have been missed.

    Now I hope that isn't the case but given that the test case is the sort of thing testers might miss (and remember both Sandpit and I have reason to believe this is the sort of thing tests might miss) it's perfectly possible that it might have been missed.
    I'd go further and say that blatantly-obvious-with-hindsight test case scenarios pretty much *always* get missed.

    My quick 10-minute design for a small-scale test prior to IoW rollout.

    Venue: closed mall or cinema, 100% CCTV coverage.

    Number of volunteers: 50, none having had any prior involvement in the project
    Supervisors: 10, not involved in dev or QA roles but with an understanding of how the app should work to an end user.

    Instructions to volunteers: Bring a book. You will be in this area for several hours, every half an hour or so you'll go for a walk around and find a new place to sit down. Sometimes you'll sit close to someone else, or stop and talk to someone while walking. Don't touch the phone we give you, but put it where you'd normally put your phone.

    CCTV room operators noting every interaction between people, and database engineers in same room noting DB hits (this is a centralised solution). Note all the positives, negatives, false positives and false negatives.

    Morning session - we provide the phones, all the phone apps, central web app, comms server and database are in QA/debug mode.

    Afternoon session - everything in 'production' mode, participants are given the app on their own phones and told to use them normally while repeating the experiment.

    Next day, review all CCTV and DB logs in real time replay, looking for things missed. Note from CCTV actual times and distances between people, and compare to values for same stored in DB. Set one phone to "COVID-mode" and test all phone responses.

    Refine time and distance scales to refine responses and alerts as required, repeat experiment as required.

    I could spend all day putting in more details, but there's a good starting point for discussion.
    I'm not going to add to that except one observation - please remember it's a lot easier to create tests when you are an innocent 3rd party looking into the project compared to when you are working on the project.
    Oh indeed. Most of the more obvious testing failures come from the fact that everyone knows how it is *supposed* to work, so there's a huge confirmation bias. Most of the test failures are likely false negatives and corner cases.

    Which is why your analysts devising tests should be working from the approved written spec of the product, and not talking to the dev team! :D

    The obvious bit I missed was that one area of the test building should be a dead spot for mobile reception, to test queuing of data packet transmission in both directions.
    Yep, the other thing I was going to point out is that the requirement specification will be so badly written that even if the application is the abject failure I suspect it will be, the solution will have met the requirements so needs to be paid for.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Not just Gatwick Virgin is exiting - the 747s are going too.....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1257644081024466944?s=20

    This is like the 1973 oil crisis - many until then still viable passenger liners started making one way trips to the breakers and the trans Atlantic liner service was left with one ship sailing (which survived another 30 years...) - the QE2.

    Virgin Atlantic has been a marginal business for decades
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    fox327 said:

    Extremely low for a Tuesday? Usually it's the worst day by far.
    I think yesterday was a Bank Holiday. There might be some resulting late reporting, so the updated figures later in the week should clarify this.
    The holiday is on Friday this year.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Selebian said:

    On sport... Just saw a headline on BBC news saying 'coronavirus could cost ECB £380m' and thought surely that should be billions for the European Central Bank - millions a rounding error.

    Turns out it was the other ECB, the cricket one.

    That’s cricket fecked then. They only had about £8 million in reserves and they blew most of that on the Hundred.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,794

    eek said:

    For a Tuesday (which is typically higher due to weekend catch up) that seems like good news does it not?
    Last Tuesday was 546 by the looks of it so a drop of a 1/3.
    Continuing a trend that deaths are linearly falling by about 200 per eight days rather than a logarithmic decay.

    At this rate (not that I expect that) this wave will be over by the end of next week.
    I'll be bloody impressed if it continues after that. Mass resurrections... :smile:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Naming horses after Highland geography can work wonders: see under Arkle, Foinaven.

    Have you noticed how many F1 drivers are named after Scottish towns?

    Lewis Hamilton.

    Eddie Irvine.

    Stirling Moss.

    Ayr Town Centre.
    There's some sort of virus transmissable from Ydoethr?
    That attempt at spelling my name was u-less.

    Anyway, Lewis is an island :smiley:
    No man is an Island - I'm Donne commenting ...for now!
    Not bad, but you’ll get better as you get Uist to it.
    Stop Harris-ing us with those puns
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....

    Marginal but positive sounds about right, given most people don't handle them correctly.

    Massive negative effect if the public start hoarding them while there's a supply shortage for medical workers though.
    Is there a reason why we shouldn't just go to using respiratory masks (which are reusable), rather than going through millions of disposable ones? Yes the outside needs cleaning carefully, but you only need to change the filters on those every few months.
    The FFP2/N95 respirators (Which @Eadric got very excited when I showed him a picture) I have were very easy to get hold of a while ago, doubt that is the case now.
    They are still short term use though right? I was talking about the reusable respirator masks that have interchangeable filters.
    I was thinking of the Asian style dust masks with washable filters.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sir Patrick Vallance told MPs that masks could have a 'marginal but positive' impact on curbing transmission of the life-threatening infection.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288295/Wearing-masks-curb-spread-coronavirus-Governments-chief-scientist-says.html

    By next month it will be everybody needs to wear a mask, but we don't have enough of them....

    Marginal but positive sounds about right, given most people don't handle them correctly.

    Massive negative effect if the public start hoarding them while there's a supply shortage for medical workers though.
    Is there a reason why we shouldn't just go to using respiratory masks (which are reusable), rather than going through millions of disposable ones? Yes the outside needs cleaning carefully, but you only need to change the filters on those every few months.
    The FFP2/N95 respirators (Which @Eadric got very excited when I showed him a picture) I have were very easy to get hold of a while ago, doubt that is the case now.
    Eadric bought them all
    Unless he was beaten in the queue by SeanT, Byronic and MysticRose...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Charles said:

    Not just Gatwick Virgin is exiting - the 747s are going too.....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1257644081024466944?s=20

    This is like the 1973 oil crisis - many until then still viable passenger liners started making one way trips to the breakers and the trans Atlantic liner service was left with one ship sailing (which survived another 30 years...) - the QE2.

    Virgin Atlantic has been a marginal business for decades
    No more virgins in Gatwick. Local pimps express disappointment?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    Foxy said:

    Sweden likely had coronavirus cases as early as November last year, the country's virus chief has revealed.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8288599/Sweden-probably-Covid-19-cases-NOVEMBER-countrys-virus-chief-claims.html

    Though according to that article the first Swedish case testing positive was at end Jan.

    Interesting that the French test positive case on Dec 27th had no history of travel or connection with China. I presume they have excluded a false positive, but it does muddy the waters considerably.
    The paper said that they could not completely exclude contamination of the samples, but that seems fairly unlikely.

    The Swedish claim doesn't seem to be based on much beyond his opinion.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684
    eek said:

    malcolmg said:

    dr_spyn said:
    Gatwick will be done for shortly
    Like Prestwick?
    Yep, we need to see what Easyjet do but two of it's three scheduled airlines and the ones providing the more premium passenger have both left.
    Prestwick only has cargo nowadays , few ryanair holiday flights and lots of military refueling. Lots of Norwegian 787's stored there. Still a couple of big engine overhaul factories. Best runway in the UK as well and never closed by weather.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Charles said:

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    ydoethur said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Naming horses after Highland geography can work wonders: see under Arkle, Foinaven.

    Have you noticed how many F1 drivers are named after Scottish towns?

    Lewis Hamilton.

    Eddie Irvine.

    Stirling Moss.

    Ayr Town Centre.
    There's some sort of virus transmissable from Ydoethr?
    That attempt at spelling my name was u-less.

    Anyway, Lewis is an island :smiley:
    No man is an Island - I'm Donne commenting ...for now!
    Not bad, but you’ll get better as you get Uist to it.
    Stop Harris-ing us with those puns
    It’s OK, I have Nairn left. Wick may be a blessing.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 48,928
    I still think it's far too early to celebrate Victory over Epidemic Day.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,387

    eek said:

    For a Tuesday (which is typically higher due to weekend catch up) that seems like good news does it not?
    Last Tuesday was 546 by the looks of it so a drop of a 1/3.
    Continuing a trend that deaths are linearly falling by about 200 per eight days rather than a logarithmic decay.

    At this rate (not that I expect that) this wave will be over by the end of next week.
    I'll be bloody impressed if it continues after that. Mass resurrections... :smile:
    Every further fall is great news. Eventually we will hit a new low that will continue for some time - so every death counts so much more if it's going to be repeated every day for six months.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Not just Gatwick Virgin is exiting - the 747s are going too.....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1257644081024466944?s=20

    This is like the 1973 oil crisis - many until then still viable passenger liners started making one way trips to the breakers and the trans Atlantic liner service was left with one ship sailing (which survived another 30 years...) - the QE2.

    Virgin have basically two types of fleet, the older 747s and A330s (they already scrapped the A340s), and the newer, much more efficient 787s and A350s.

    The old fleet are unlikely to survive this, the Queens of the Skies now all heading for scrappers and cargo conversions.

    I was on the QE2 only a couple of months ago, as it happens. She's now a floating hotel in Dubai :D
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    edited May 2020
    Analysis of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the Mount Sinai Health System using electronic medical records (EMR) reveals important prognostic factors for improved clinical outcomes
    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.28.20075788v1
    ...In this observational case series, patient-level data were extracted from electronic medical records for 28,336 patients tested for SARS-CoV-2 at the Mount Sinai Health System from 2/24/ to 4/15/2020, including 6,158 laboratory-confirmed cases. Exposures: Confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis by RT-PCR assay from nasal swabs. Main Outcomes and Measures: Effects of race on positive test rates and mortality were assessed. Among positive cases admitted to the hospital (N = 3,273), effects of patient demographics, hospital site and unit, social behavior, vital signs, lab results, and disease comorbidities on discharge and death were estimated. Results: Hispanics (29%) and African Americans (25%) had disproportionately high positive case rates relative to population base rates (p< 2e-16); however, no differences in mortality rates were observed in the hospital. Outcome differed significantly between hospitals (Gray's T=248.9; p< 2e-16), reflecting differences in average baseline age and underlying comorbidities. Significant risk factors for mortality included age (HR=1.05 [95% CI, 1.04-1.06]; p=1.15e-32), oxygen saturation (HR=0.985 [95% CI, 0.982-0.988]; p=1.57e-17), care in ICU areas (HR=1.58 [95% CI, 1.29-1.92]; p=7.81e-6), and elevated creatinine (HR=1.75 [95% CI, 1.47-2.10]; p=7.48e-10), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (HR=1.002, [95% CI 1.001-1.003]; p=8.86e-5) and body-mass index (BMI) (HR=1.02, [95% CI 1.00-1.03]; p=1.09e-2). Asthma (HR=0.78 [95% CI, 0.62-0.98]; p=0.031) was significantly associated with increased length of hospital stay, but not mortality. Deceased patients were more likely to have elevated markers of inflammation. Baseline age, BMI, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, white blood cell (WBC) count, creatinine, and ALT were significant prognostic indicators of mortality. Conclusions and Relevance: While race was associated with higher risk of infection, we did not find a racial disparity in inpatient mortality suggesting that outcomes in a single tertiary care health system are comparable across races. We identified clinical features associated with reduced mortality and discharge. These findings could help to identify which COVID-19 patients are at greatest risk and evaluate the impact on survival....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631

    eek said:

    For a Tuesday (which is typically higher due to weekend catch up) that seems like good news does it not?
    Last Tuesday was 546 by the looks of it so a drop of a 1/3.
    Continuing a trend that deaths are linearly falling by about 200 per eight days rather than a logarithmic decay.

    At this rate (not that I expect that) this wave will be over by the end of next week.
    I'll be bloody impressed if it continues after that. Mass resurrections... :smile:
    I generated the following - 7 day trend line is still flat

    image

    usual caveats about the last few days will change
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Sandpit said:

    Not just Gatwick Virgin is exiting - the 747s are going too.....

    https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1257644081024466944?s=20

    This is like the 1973 oil crisis - many until then still viable passenger liners started making one way trips to the breakers and the trans Atlantic liner service was left with one ship sailing (which survived another 30 years...) - the QE2.

    Virgin have basically two types of fleet, the older 747s and A330s (they already scrapped the A340s), and the newer, much more efficient 787s and A350s.
    I wonder if BA's 747s will make it back into the air? Crossed the Atlantic many times on the QE2 - once (just after 9/11) they wanted to get us into Boston early so they cranked her up to over 29 knots - wouldn't have known if I hadn't seen the stateroom TV display. While Captains were assessed on how economically they could cross the pond Ron Warwick was fond of pressing the pedal to the metal.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,631
    RobD said:

    fox327 said:

    Extremely low for a Tuesday? Usually it's the worst day by far.
    I think yesterday was a Bank Holiday. There might be some resulting late reporting, so the updated figures later in the week should clarify this.
    The holiday is on Friday this year.
    People not knowing if we have had a bank holiday or not..... Sign of the times...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. kle4, that's why Zapp Brannigan hates Malta.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    I find it somewhat amusing that I have just had a text from a member of the House of Lords, that was a giant thumbs up....
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684
    Pulpstar said:

    fox327 said:

    Extremely low for a Tuesday? Usually it's the worst day by far.
    I think yesterday was a Bank Holiday. There might be some resulting late reporting, so the updated figures later in the week should clarify this.
    It wasn't.
    It was in some parts of Scotland
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    So, what sports do we think we'll be able to watch (and bet on) over the summer?

    We need to find things with only a dozen people required in a room, including competitors, officials and media. Maybe some well spread-out outdoor sports too.

    We know all the international touring sports are out, and professional football, cricket, rugby and motorsport all need a cast of hundreds for a competitive televised event. Also out is anything that relies too much on public attendance for revenue.

    So what are we left with? Some local golf and tennis, darts, snooker?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Worth a read:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/05/why-has-eastern-europe-suffered-less-from-coronavirus-than-the-west

    I think it misses that central and eastern Europe are both emptier and less connected than western Europe, but the point about early lockdown is a fair one.
This discussion has been closed.